Dr Rob has generously extended the ballot deadline until 3/12, Friday 10 PM Pacific
Due to this year’s jumbled awards calendar, the ballot has been trimmed to the top 6 categories: Picture, Director, and the four Acting categories.
So, here are your instructions:
“Imagine you’re an honorary member of the Academy, and you’re asked to nominate films and performers in their respective categories. Make your selections accordingly.”
Only the films on the Academy’s Reminder List are eligible for selection.
If you change your mind, submit an updated nomination form. Your last submission in each branch will be used.
http://www.ellipticcurvecreations.com/
Voting will be closed at 10 PM (PST) on Friday 3/12.
Final and official predictions for Best Picture and Best Director nominations at the 2021 Oscars:
Best Picture:
1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Promising Young Woman
4. Minari
5. Mank
6. One Night in Miami
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
8. The Father
9. Sound of Metal
10. Da 5 Bloods
My assumptions about the order of likelihood beyond these 10:
11. Judas and the Black Messiah
12. News of the World
13. Soul
14. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
15. First Cow
NGNG: The Mauritanian
Best Director:
1. Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
2. David Fincher – Mank
3. Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
4. Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
5. Florian Zeller – The Father
Then:
6. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Darius Marder – Sound of Metal
8. Regina King – One Night in Miami
9. Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods
10. Kelly Reichardt – First Cow (also my NGNG in this category)
Some of the reasoning/stats these are based on – picture:
– Only the first 3 seem completely locked, with the other two DGA nominees, Minari and Mank, nearly locked, but I wouldn’t say 100%. The only DGA nominee (1/55) that failed to make the BP lineup at the Oscars in the expanded ballot era, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, was missing from the BP lineups at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and BAFTA (it also didn’t make SAG Ensemble). The only ones that come close to such weakness this year are the two I just mentioned: Mank, which missed BAFTA BP and SAG Ensemble, but got the other two and led nominations in both so I think it’s safe… and Minari, which missed BAFTA and was ineligible for the Globe (plus it didn’t get any nominations from the HFPA besides foreign language film, which suggests, despite the win there, that it would have missed the drama lineup). Still should be safe enough, given how seldom DGA nominees miss.
– The only three movies to make the Oscar Best Picture lineup over the last 9 years (so, with the 5-10 system) that weren’t either among the PGA or the BFCA’s top 10’s are Amour, Philomena and Phantom Thread. (I went into great detail studying these, but I won’t go into it here, apart from the essential stuff. One interesting thing is that they all had precisely 4 BAFTA nominations. First Cow, for instance has zero. Soul has 3 and didn’t get into screenplay.) This year, besides the DGA five, there are One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (which are also helped by having SAG Ensemble – I believe only The Big Sick has missed with all three of these), as well as Sound of Metal, which is in the Nightcrawler position – it’s hit the same major precursors (PGA+BFCA+WGA+ACE+AFI+NBR). There are a bunch of movies (about one every year, on average) which got almost the exact same things and missed, so this is shaky, but the only one to get all six and miss remains Nightcrawler, so Sound of Metal should most likely be in. Missing DGA+BAFTA+SAG+GG has been overcome before, plenty of times. Even with less.
– Which leaves one more slot, realistically, and here I am, as can be seen, going (a first for me, I think) with a non-PGA and non-BFCA nominee (The Father), over several movies that have one or the other this year. We’ll see how that goes… The only BAFTA+GG Best Picture nominee to miss at the Oscars in the expanded ballot era is Carol (1/45). Of course, almost all of them had a lot more than that and The Father doesn’t. But neither did Philomena. There’s also Darkest Hour, which had BFCA instead of GG, so it was in about the same position as The Father. (Both of those did get in.) Carol, if we keep in mind The Father’s ineligibilities at AFI and the WGA, had pretty much the same things, plus the BFCA nomination. Stronger, but comparable. What it didn’t have is the Globe screenplay nomination. Only 4 BAFTA Best Film nominees have missed for Best Picture at the Oscars in the modern preferential era, in fact, and none of them had the Golden Globe screenplay nomination (like The Father), so all of those that have had both have gotten in. This is all borderline but to me it just about builds a strong-enough case to get The Father in, and possibly even ahead of Sound of Metal. Very unclear to me. I’m going with this order and I could easily end up regretting it, if there are eight, not nine, and The Father misses. (And Sound of Metal doesn’t.)
– I could talk in detail about the ranking below the top 10 too, but this is going to be very long as it is and, besides, it’s not as clear there (not that it’s very clear within the top 10, either). I have Da 5 Bloods in 10th because it ticks just enough boxes, in my opinion, to be first alternate. SAG Ensemble helps it a great deal. It also has the BFCA Best Picture nomination. Still shouldn’t be enough for it to get in, as its misses are very serious. But it’s not dead and it is the NBR winner. Enough of those miss, but most don’t. Maybe I should have Soul there instead, maybe I should have Judas… It’s just not clear. Doesn’t really matter, as there are never 10. For Borat and Judas, missing DGA+BAFTA+BFCA+SAG (ensemble, of course) is very bad. Only Amour and Phantom Thread have overcome it under the 5-10 system. (As for Da 5 Bloods’ misses, there just isn’t enough precedent for its setup to rule it out with as much confidence as these two. If it didn’t have SAG Ensemble, it would be much easier.) News of the World has missed entirely too much. It isn’t dead either, even so, and could get in, but I believe in the argument that if it couldn’t at PGA it won’t at the Oscars, either.
Director:
– As we all know, the last 10 years at least one DGA nominee has missed every time. I see no particular reason to predict Sorkin or assume he’s safe. Even if we think he would have made the BAFTA directing lineup, were it not for the jury thing. Interestingly, the last 7 directors to hit all 4 major precursors and be snubbed at the Oscars all failed to win screenplay at Critics Choice. Even though at least 3 of them won in that category elsewhere (major) and all were nominated by the BFCA. Sorkin also failed to win that award this year. Anyway, that’s mostly trivia. Or at least I’m not confident enough it means anything to claim it’s more than that. Regardless, one has to take somebody off the DGA list (although it would be no huge surprise to see them match for the first time in a decade this year, when there are fewer options), and Sorkin seems the most vulnerable to me. Chung too, but he feels more like an AMPAS nominee to me than Sorkin.
– It’s a coincidence I have 3 DGA Best First-Time Feature nominees as my main 3 alternatives to Sorkin (or Chung – or Fennell, I guess, but I don’t want to think about that). The reasons have nothing to do with that. I only have Regina King as low as 8th because GG+BFCA directing nominations are usually not enough without DGA or BAFTA (only 2 recent-ish exceptions out of 8 or 9 people with that combo). And because her movie only has one BAFTA nomination, which is usually not enough to be a non-DGA Oscar nominee for directing. There are, of course, exceptions. She’s also an actor-turned-director, which they can sometimes scoff at, her DGA miss might be more relevant than other people’s, etc.
– In fact, the last 10 non-DGA Oscar nominees in directing have each had 2 or more BAFTA acting nominations or the BAFTA directing or screenplay nominations (usually also combined with an acting nomination). 7 of them have had the screenplay nomination, which The Father does (in addition to an acting nomination that should have been two) but Sound of Metal doesn’t (it has two acting nominations, though, and both are probably legit). These stats are strong before this streak too, by the way. Of course, neither has any major directing nominations, but they have just about enough smaller ones to seem plausible in that sense as well.
– The BAFTA thing also explains why I have Spike Lee and Kelly Reichardt so low (since their movies have a total of 1 BAFTA nomination, which is a jury one, anyway). But still ahead of the other possibilities I considered (the directors of The Mauritanian, Judas and the Black Messiah, Another Round and News of the World, all of which have probably garnered far too few directing mentions thus far to mount a serious challenge, despite doing well enough at BAFTA in the directing/screenplay/acting categories). Reichardt is my NGNG because she’s the only one besides Zhao to get any attention from LAFCA/NYFCC/NSFC (she placed third with the NSFC). And this can sometimes lead to some shockers. NSFC in particular: PTA – Phantom Thread – was also top 3 there, Malick – The Tree of Life – and Haneke – Amour – won it…
Can’t wait for Monday!…
Monumental work and lucid reasoning, once again, Claudiu.
Featured comment.
Good luck to you and to everyone else with your wishes and predictions!
Wow, thanks! I hope it at least turns out to be a somewhat accurate forecast… 🙂 I’ve done really well in these BP nomination predictions over the years, but I’ve rarely taken such risks as predicting The Father this year.
Wow, thanks! I hope it at least turns out to be a somewhat accurate forecast… 🙂 I’ve done really well in these BP nomination predictions over the years, but I’ve rarely taken such risks as predicting The Father this year.
Bad Education was my second favorite film and it’s not there!
no Joseph Gordon Levitt for 7500? no Gina Rodriguez for Kajillionaire? no Margo Martindale for Blow the Man Down?
Meanwhile there are 6 options for The Buddy Games
I believe they included everything included on the academy reminder list – many of these were not eligible for Oscars or not submitted /pushed which is why they aren’t included.
Best Picture
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
One Night in Miami…
Palm Springs
Promising Young Woman
The King of Staten Island
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Picture
1. Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Soul
3. Nomadland
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Sound of Metal
Best Director
1. Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
2. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
3. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
4. Pete Docter, Soul
5. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
Best Actor
1. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
3. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
5. Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Best Actress
1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
3. Elisabeth Moss, The Invisible Man
4. Leah Lewis, The Half of It
5. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Supporting Actor
1. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
2. LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
3. Arliss Howard, Mank
4. Bo Burnham, Promising Young Woman
5. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Best Supporting Actress
1. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
5. Eva Whittaker, Wolfwalkers
Nice! I thought Eva Whittaker was tremendous as well… (Not to mention Seyfried and Mulligan – and Close. I love all of your female acting nominees that I’ve seen – which is now 9/10. Just 3/10 in the male acting categories.)
OBS: Quo Vadis, Aida?, my second favorite film of the year, The Man Who Sold His Skin, Arracht, Two of Us, Hope, and Asia would all receive at least one nomination if they were eligible for this Oscars.
BEST PICTURE
• Collective (5)
• Da 5 Bloods (1)
• Nomadland (2)
• Promising Young Woman (4)
• Soul (3)
BEST DIRECTING
• Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods
• David Fincher – Mank
• Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
• Emmerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
• Pete Docter, Kemp Powers – Soul
BEST ACTRESS
• Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
• Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead
• Frances McDormand – Nomadland
• Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
• Julija Alexandrowna Wyssozkaja – Dear Comrades!
BEST ACTOR
• Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
• Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami
• Anthony Hopkins – The Father
• Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
• Mads Mikkelnsen – Another Round
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
• Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
• Sonia Braga – Bacurau
• Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
• Olivia Colman – The Father
• Young Yuh-Jung – Minari
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
• Sasha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods
• Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
• Bill Murray – On the Rocks
• Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
• Apples
• Da 5 Bloods
• Promising Young Woman
• Soul
• The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
• Another Round
• Collective
• The Man Who Sold His Skin
• Quo Vadis, Aida?
• Two of Us
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
• Boys State
• Collective
• Crip Camp
• The Mole Agent
• Welcome to Chechnya
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
• Onward
• Shaun the Sheep: Farmaggedon
• Soul
• The Willoughbys
• Wolfwalkers
BEST FILM EDITING
• Da 5 Bloods
• The Father
• Nomadland
• The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Tenet
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
• I’m Thinking of Ending Things
• First Cow
• Mank
• Minari
• Nomadland
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
• Emma
• Mank
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• The Prom
• Promising Young Woman
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
• Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
• Mank
• Pinnocchio
• Soul
• Tenet
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
• The Midnight Sky
• Mank
• Minari
• Soul
• The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
• “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
• “Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)
• “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami…
• “Identical” from On the Rocks
• “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST SOUND
• Da 5 Bloods
• Greyhound
• Mank
• Soul
• Sound of Metal
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
• Greyhound
• The Invisible Man
• Soul
• Tenet
• Welcome to Chechnya
Would have loved to see more films before this deadline, but this is how I voted based on the eligible films that I’ve actually seen. (Side note: I wanted to vote for Wu Chien-ho for Best Actor and Liu Kuan-ting for Best Supporting Actor, both from A Sun, but they weren’t listed.)
PICTURE
1. Soul
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Never Rarely Sometimes Always
4. Boys State
5. Sound of Metal
DIRECTOR
1. Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
2. Pete Docter, Soul
3. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
4. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
5. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
ACTRESS
1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
2. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
3. Elisabeth Moss, The Invisible Man
4. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
5. Yeri Han, Minari
ACTOR
1. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
4. Ben Affleck, The Way Back
5. Steven Yeun, Minari
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
2. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
3. Talia Ryder, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
4. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and The Black Messiah
3. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night In Miami…
5. Bob Wells, Nomadland
Dude, ProYo is so high on all of these lists being posted here!… Love it!
A Sun is not eligible for any award at the Oscars apart from best international feature film. Agree it’s one of the best of the year.
PICTURE
1. Da 5 Bloods
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Sound of Metal
4. Nomadland
5. Martin Eden
DIRECTOR:
1. Aaron Sorkin- The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods
3. Darius Marder – Sound of Metal
4. David Fincher – Mank
5. Pietro Marcello – Martin Eden
LEAD ACTRESS
1. Diane Lane – Let Him Go
2. Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy
3. Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always
4. Frances McDormand – Nomadland
5. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
LEAD ACTOR
1. Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami
2. Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
3. Gary Oldman, Mank
4. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
5. Anthony Hopkins – The Father
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
2. Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
4. Olivia Colman – The Father
5. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. David Strathairn – Nomadland
2. Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Charles Dance, Mank
4. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
https://media3.giphy.com/media/14cilFdQzr8hG0/giphy.gif
PICTURE AND DIRECTING
1. The Invisible Man
2. Emma
3. Promising Young Woman
4. Minari
5. Palm Springs (Mank for Directing)
LEAD ACTRESS
1. Elizabeth Moss, The Invisible Man
2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
4. Betty Gilpin, The Hunt
5. Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
LEAD ACTOR
1. Steven Yeun, Minari
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
3. Gary Oldman, Mank
4. John David Washington, Tenet
5. Anthony Mackie, The Banker
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
2. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
4. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
5. Elizabeth Debicki, Tenet
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Charles Dance, Mank
2. Alan Kim, Minari
3. Josh O’Connor, Emma
4. Tom Burke, Mank
5. Jamie Dornan*, Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar
*not submitted but voting for him in my heart ❤️
I would have voted for Onward and Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon for original and adapted screenplay.
I´m jealous you found room for Anya in Leading Actress, but I nominated her in Best Wife Material and wanted to avoid a double-nomination…
I was hoping to put Pfeiffer but since her film hasn’t materialized yet, I figured that despite my reservations Emma couldn’t be that good unless its main actress was good too, so it made sense. Same for Bo Burnham, I wanted to put Jamie Dornan instead, but for some reason only Barb and Star were included on the reminder list for Barb and Star, so I figured I wouldn’t mind an additional nomination for ‘PYW’.
I’m calling shenanigans if The Father gets listed high on any of these… There’s no where to see the film in the States! It doesn’t get released on VOD until March 26th.
We do that every though — we sometimes have to make predictions based solely on indicators instead of first-hand impressions.
Is it just me or was it really that hard filling that Supporting Actor ballot with 5 names because the contenders are so thin? On the other hand, Supporting Actress is as jam-packed as Lead Actress! Too bad we couldn’t vote for writing categories.
PICTURE AND DIRECTING
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)
2. Judas and the Black Messiah (Shaka King)
3. Mank (David Fincher)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Jason Woliner)
5. The Prom (Ryan Murphy)
LEADING ACTOR
1. LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
2. Gary Oldman (Mank)
3. Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
4. James Corden (The Prom)
5. Dev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield)
LEADING ACTRESS
1, Jo Ellen Pelman (The Prom)
2. Zendaya (Malcolm and Marie)
3. Jessie Buckley (I’m Thinking of Ending Things)
4. Meryl Streep (Let Them All Talk)
5. Rachel McAdams (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
2. Yahya Abdul Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
3. Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
4. Charles Dance (Mank)
5. Keegan Michael Key (The Prom)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)
2. Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
3. Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
4. Ariana DeBose (The Prom)
5. Tilda Swinton (The Personal History of David Copperfield)
Hmmm, I guess these don’t look so bad after all! (I haven’t seen Nomadland, Minari, One Night in Miami, The Father, Sound of Metal, Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah and Soul, of the movies likely in BP contention at the Oscars. My list will probably change a lot by the end, but I can’t vote then and I have some things I really want to help get in/win this year, so…)
Best Picture:
1. Wolfwalkers
2. Colectiv
3. Promising Young Woman
4. Mank
5. Palm Springs
Best Director:
1. Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
2. David Fincher – Mank
3. Alexander Nanau – Colectiv (Somebody will have to explain to me if I’m way off to include a documentary director, or this one in particular, and why – probably, somehow…)
4. Kornél Mundruczó – Pieces of a Woman (The movie worked for me more than for most, I think; I thought it was excellent, even if ultimately not 100% satisfying)
5. Kelly Reichardt – First Cow
Best Actress:
1. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (I mean…)
2. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
3. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (The top 3 are very close for me, it has to be said.)
4. Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie
5. Cristin Milioti – Palm Springs
Best Actor:
1. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Gary Oldman – Mank
3. Andy Samberg – Palm Springs
4. John Magaro – First Cow
5. Shia LaBoeuf – Pieces of a Woman (Am I going to get cancelled for this? 🙂 Anyway, this is the only category where all of my actual top 5 were eligible/on the list.)
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
2. Amanda Seyfried – Mank
3. Sophia Loren – La vita davanti a sé
4. Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
5. Eva Whittaker – Wolfwalkers
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Bo Burnham – Promising Young Woman
4. Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Charles Dance – Mank
Despite his personal reputation, agree that Shia LaBoeuf was excellent and very nuanced in Pieces of a Woman. He’s, I feel, supporting rather than lead actor though. The film was centered around Vanessa Kirby’s character.
Hmmm, I guess I just assumed… I usually avoid having to decide where to place actors by just picking whatever category most awards groups picked (looking at the movie’s respective IMDb page), and he’s only been mentioned in supporting, so I clearly failed to do so in his case. I shall move him there.
Here are mine:
Best Picture:
1. Minari
2. Never Rarely Sometimes Always
3. Sound of Metal
4. Emma
5. The Assistant
Director:
1. Eliza Hittman (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
2. Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
3. Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)
4. Kitty Green (The Assistant)
5. Regina King (One Night in Miami)
Actor:
1. Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
2. Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey)
3. Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami)
4. Jesse Plemons (I´m thinking of ending things)
5. Steven Yeun (Minari)
Actress:
1. Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
2. Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
3. Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
4. Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a woman)
5. Jessie Buckley (I´m thinking of ending things)
Supp. Actor:
1. Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
2. David Thewlis (I´m thinking of ending things)
3. Bill Murray (On the rocks)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen (Trial Chicago 7)
5. Alan Kim (Minari)
Supp. Actress:
1. Maria Bakalova (Borat 2)
2. Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
3. Toni Collette (I´m thinking of ending things)
4. Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)
5. Talia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
At least screenplay should have been in there as well. 🙁 Anyway, still great that you guys are doing this at all!
I appreciate the screenplay and technical categories because they allow us to showcase our top tens, but I understand sorting out 366 scripts into adapted and original categories can be a bit of a nightmare. We’ll have to use the slots we’re given wisely.
Yeah, that’s a very good point…
Top five for right now
Judas and the black messiah
Mank
Ma Rainey’s black bottom
Soul
Trial of the Chicago 7
I can’t believe Lionsgate didn’t submit Jamie Dornan in Barb and Star Go to Vista del Mar for Oscar consideration! Boohoo.
and that Netflix hasn’t supported McAdams and Stevens for nominations at the Globes, for Eurovision. They both are FANTASTIC there.
I’m thinking this for my vote, choices edited from original ones are mentioned and explained in the lists (also, in a year where the collection of brilliant films was somewhat limited from what it usually is, why would the Academy and the distributors ignore so many of the great films that did come out this year and show no interest in getting them eligibile?):
Picture:
1. First Cow
2. Never Rarely Sometimes Always
3. Shirley
4. Time
5. Martin Eden
Director:
1. Kelly Reichardt (First Cow)
2. Eliza Hittman (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
3. Josphine Decker (Shirley)
4. Pietro Marcello (Martin Eden)
5. Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) (changed from originally listed Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) due to strategic reasons related to how I believe Zhao and Chung will fare respectively in this vote)
Actress:
1. Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
2. Yeri Han (Minari)
3. Elisabeth Moss (Shirley)
4. Julia Garner (The Assistant)
5. Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Actor
1. John Magaro (First Cow)
2. Luca Marinelli (Martin Eden)
3. Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami…)
4. Steven Yeun (Minari)
5. Orion Lee (First Cow) (changed from original choice Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) due to rewatching First Cow)
Supporting Actor
1. Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods)
2. Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
3. Bill Murray (On the Rocks)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg (Shirley)
5. Arliss Howard (Mank)
Supporting Actress
1. Talia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
2. Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
3. Toni Collette (I’m Thinking of Ending Things)
4. Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
5. Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)
Only going to vote for stuff I’ve seen. Which isn’t a lot but includes a lot of the biggest contenders (although it also doesn’t include lots more – which is why I’ve usually abstained from voting).
OK, I’ll vote too. Help my people get nominated…
Thanks for the opportunity to do this again! I really appreciate all the hard work that goes into it.
I don’t think I can responsibly share my picks this year, as I haven’t even gotten around to watch half of the “important” films of the year, let alone the more hidden gems.
But I will still vote, because I know the Oscar voters don’t watch anything either lol.
Also, this is the first year in quite some time where I haven’t yet logged a 5-star film. I’m eagerly waiting for something to truly blow me away.
Oh, man, I understand you wanting to tabulate the results to be released shortly after noms. But The Father will be screwed here because no one will have seen it…
Da 5 Bloods
Nomadland
News of the World
Mank
Hillbilly Elegy
There’s a place for all types of films in awards and recognition. The artistic (highbrow) & acclaimed, as well as the traditional crowdpleasing and feel good movies.
Hopefully Oscar voters don’t throw the Metacritic Top 10 of the year at us.