With Oscar nominations that could go either way it’s time for another edition of No Guts, No Glory It’s the End of the World as We Know It!
Remember the rules. You get up to three and they have to be far out. Forget about something that MIGHT happen (Borat nominated for Best Picture) – what would blow your minds?
Here are mine:
Paul Greengrass gets in for Best Director for News of the World
Hillbilly Elegy gets in for Best Picture
Promising Young Woman for Production Design.
Never Rarely Sometimes Always for Original Screenplay.
Ammonite for Costume Design and Score (haven’t predicted Score though).
Paul Greengrass for Director
Ellen Burstyn for Supporting Actress
Sidney Flanigan in a shocker nom
For NGNG misses:
No Close
1. First Cow gets nominated anywhere
2. Another Round gets nominated anywhere other than Best International Film
3. Olivia Cooke gets nominated for Best Supporting Actress
HM (less NGNG). David Strathairn gets nominated for Best Supporting Actor
Best Actor – Ben Affleck (The Way Back)
Best Director – Christopher Nolan (Tenet)
Best Supporting Actress – Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)
Mads Mikkelsen for best Actor
Darius Marder for Best Director
David Strathairn for Best Supporting Actor
1. Nomadland gets the expected Best Picture nod, but it misses out on Best Director and Adapted Screenplay.
2. Sacha Baron Cohen is NOT nominated for Supporting Actor; instead that Trial…7 nod goes to Mark Rylance instead.
3. Too many depressing films this year for Best Picture, so The Prom becomes a surprise Best Picture nominee.
1. Darius Marder sneaks in for a Best Director nomination
2. Tom Hanks prevails with a Best Lead Actor nom
3. Da 5 Bloods has a surprising amount of big nominations (a la Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild)
1. Night of the Kings sneaks into Best Cinematography
2. Mads Mikkelsen grabs a Best Actor nomination for Another Round
3. The Mauritanian for Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom doesn’t get a Best Pic nod
2. Husavik from Eurovision gets Best Song nomination
3. Tenet snubbed in all tech categories except VFX
Curveball: WINNERS line up NGNG (before the nominations! the whole list of winners is the NGNG hunch) Feel free to post your line up of winners (all categories) BEFORE nominations are even announced.
Picture – Minari
Director – Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Actor – Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Actress – Carey Mulligan, Independent Young Woman
S. Actor – Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
S. Actress – Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Original Screenplay – Minari
Adapted Screenplay – Nomadland
Cinematography – Nomadland
Score – Soul
Song – Husavik, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Sound – Sound of Metal
VFX – Welcome to Chechnya
Production Design – Mank
Costume – Jingle Jangle
Film Editing – Minari
Make Up and Hairstyle – Pinochio
Documentary – Collective
Animated – Soul
International Film – Another Round
Animated Short – If anything happens, I love you
Live Action Short – The Human Voice
Documentary Short – A Lovesong for Latasha
“You get up to 3 and they have to be far out.”
4 can’t happen… the rest, are still possible…
snubs:
Film Editing – Minari
Live Action Short – The Human Voice
Costume – Jingle Jangle (that was a wild guess)
VFX – Welcome to Chechnya
1. No Nominations for Pieces of a Woman
2. Thomas Vinterberg nom for Another Round (Best Director)
3. Anthony Hopkins is the sole nomination for The Father
No Viola Davis in Lead
No David Fincher
Mauritanian Picture, Director, Actor, Sup Actress, Script
– One of the “lock” acting nominations snubbed (Leslie Odom Jr, Frances McDormand, Vanessa Kirby, etc)
– Eddie Redmayne nominated for best supporting actor with (or without) Sacha Baron Cohen.
– Mank snubbed in Picture and Acting categories.
while certainly a HUGE NGNG of Redmayne… reality check, the Chicago 7 team has focused on SBC for a long time, taking also profit of the promotion Amazon is making of him because of Borat. He basically has 2 studios promoting him for that nom, and that’s why I think he will ultimately upset Kaluuya.
Bonus track…
Will Patton, Supporting Actor, Minari. THAT would be the shocker. THAT could actually happen if they love Minari as much as I am smelling they do. Plus, the veteran character actor that sneaks through (Alan Alda) unexpectingly, because they loved the film so much… just imagine Alan Kim, Steven Yeun, Youn Yun-jung and Will Patton ALL nominated for the Oscar… Minari would be winning Best Picture.
Expanded… Best Picture line up…
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Judas and the Black Messiah
The Mauritanian
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
… I got the feeling that News of the World, Mank, Ma Rainey, One Night in Miami and The Father peaked too early and are going to be washed away by the last wave that guilds, BAFTA and critics have championed.
Also… watch out for Minari for the win.
John Magaro for Best Actor
Sarah Gavron for Best Director (Have to replace this, due to what F.T. said below, so Vinterberg instead.)
Mank snubbed in Best Picture
that is truly ngng – i had to look up who John Magaro was and what movie Gavron made (i saw Suffragette so knew her name) :_
Yeah, I don’t mess around when it comes to NGNG. 🙂 Which is (part of) why I almost never get any right, I suppose. (I think maybe once I managed to get one…) Anyway, these all have some slight stats justification to them. The NYFCC stat for Magaro; if First Cow indeed fails to get in anywhere else above the line, who knows?! The BAFTA connection for Gavron (who I’ve had to replace with Vinterberg – also on the BAFTA directors list and maybe a better attempt -, due to what F.T. pointed out). And the SAG, BAFTA, NBR misses and other signs of weakness for Mank. (An NGNG I do very much hope to get wrong, of course.)
You’re a genuine player of the game Claudiu. Thumbs up!
I’m a bad player of this particular game. :)) But it’s harmless fun, of course…
ROCKS (i.e. Gavron) is not on the Academy reminder list.
Damn! Thanks for alerting me to that! (Not that I think I’m actually going to get any of these right, lol.) I’ll replace it above.
No Guts No Glory :
1) Leslie Odom Jr snubs for best supporting actor
2) Da 5 Bloods gets in for Best picture and director
3) riz ahmed snubs for best actor
OK, I’ve read the rules properly this time and will now list the three that I would truly love to see happen but are about as far out as could be:
SAINT FRANCES gets Screenplay
Cristin Milioti gets Actress
RIDE YOUR WAVE gets Animated Feature
THE FATHER and NOMADLAND tie for most noms with seven each.
MANK snubbed in Picture and Screenplay and acting.
I CARE A LOT gets in over NOMADLAND for Editing.
ANOTHER ROUND snubbed everywhere.
BORAT only gets Song.
SOUND OF METAL misses Screenplay because of category uncertainty/controversy.
THE LITTLE THINGS and THE GLORIAS get Make-Up/Hair.
THE LITTLE THINGS and THE DIG get Cinematography.
THE LITTLE THINGS gets four total noms.
Zeller in over Sorkin and King.
Pike in over Kirby.
Strathairn in over Baron Cohen.
Fishback in over Close (though given the Razzie nod, this doesn’t feel like NGNG to me).
Hanks makes it, Zengel doesn’t.
Burstyn makes it, Kirby doesn’t.
Yes, I am seriously predicting all of these.
hold my beer: Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Father, News of the World and One Night in Miami, ALL snubbed from Best Picture.
I can actually picture that happening, wild as it may seem.
Ok some of y’all didn’t like my first one. Let me get a redo:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f0ea753ba37436c3576053c75bb577a38297287dc700dcb998715e68b46d344a.png
ViSiOnArY dIrEcToR zAcK sNyDeR
So edgy lol
Disqus flagged for “brief but intense sensuality”
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I think the lesser Covid-constrained field could see some absolute chaos in Director/Actress/Supp. Actress
MINARI and NOMADLAND will get five acting nominations between them
Adarsh Gourav will get a Best Actor nomination for THE WHITE TIGER
The entire Makeup & Hair nominee field will not get any other nominations
Minari can get 3 quite easily and I wouldn’t discard a Will Patton nom as well (I mean, if the campaign wouldn’t have focused on Alan Kim, we would be talking about a frontrunner?)
I wish ”Minari” could get ”3 quite easily,” but I’m skeptical. Youn Yuh-jung has the best shot; Steven Yeun looks like he’s fighting for the 5th slot in Best Actor, and Alan Kim would be a surprise long shot in Supporting Actor. Or, if the Academy’s long and embarrassing history of passing over Asian actors holds up, they could all get shut out.
SPOILERS, HEAVY SPOILERS ON MINARI
Thinking and rethinking Minari, it’s a Best Picture slamdunk. It’s not “innocent” and it’s truly great propaganda of the American Dream, desguised as a simple story, but it has so many allegories and seeds planted throughout its frames that it feels like beating the audience that can read between the lines (for those who can’t, they are easy prey for the direct talk to the collective subconscious). The grandmother is a clear allegory of the tradition, of the past that inmigrants SHOULD leave behind or just take with caution when entering the USA… or will destroy their dreams, out of good will, unable to keep up with the new rithym. The “Minari” concept is telegraphed from almost the beginning (come on, even the title spells the ending a bit, doesn’t it?) and it fails to even clarify if the Minari is going to save the family or what… it cheats in its ending by not making clear if they will be able to overcome the fire and how… the Minari growing free isn’t enough to save them after losing the production and the damages from the fire, and they are seen already against the ropes financially, but Chung cheats at the end leading us to think that they will (maybe even easily) overcome it (supereasy, barely and inconvenience!)… and it truly bothers me that 1) it’s crystal clear that these inmigrants are CHRISTIAN and 2) that not-so-subtle poster featuring only Alan Kim with a huge (but slightly blurred) American flag in the background. This is the kind of film that is like a soft massage on the USA rather than a constructive message to overcome the inequality that is destroying it.
Again, don’t get me wrong, technically speaking it is a truly great film, and one of the films of the year… but its agenda. Ugh. Not my cup of tea.
The Dig for Cinematography
The Outpost for Sound
Stanley Tucci – Supernova
Minari is better and more lighter than Parasite
I’m seeing the father tonight I’ll let you all know how it is
just saw “Minari” today. Loved it, but I still put Da 5 Bloods, Mank or Borat Subsequent Moviefilm over it, in my top.
It would be so nice to see Alan Kim nominated, but… somehow I don’t think it would feel right. He’s adorable both in and out the screen, but I don’t consider this an Oscar-calibre performance beyond the point that he interacts incredibly well with Youn (who, nom yes, win no, to me)
I loved Alan Kim in ”Minari” and think he gives an Oscar-caliber performance, as worthy as Justin Henry, also age 8, in ”Kramer vs. Kramer” (1979). Unfortunately, the Academy has a bias. They’re far more likely to nominate girls, but rarely boys. The last time the Academy nominated a boy was 2000: Haley Joel Osment in ”The Sixth Sense.” Since then, they’ve passed over Jamie Bell (”Billy Elliot”), Freddie Highmore (”Finding Neverland”), Jacob Tremlay (”Room”), etc. Since 2000, the Academy has nominated 4 girls: Abigail Breslin (”Little Miss Sunshine”), Saoirse Ronan (”Atonement”), Hailee Steinfeld (”True Grit”) and Quvenzhane Wallis (”Beasts of the Southern Wild”).
Alan Kim is like an old soul. Way ahead for his age. So many exquisite moments when he is also acting alone in addition to his scenes with the rest of the ensemble. My favourite movie so far this season. The most complete cinematic experience of the 50 or so I’ve watched (but disclaimer : only seen about 8 or 9 on the big screen)
And Keisha Castle Hughes too
You’re right. For ”Whale Rider.” What’s more, Hughes (2004) and Wallis (2013) were both nominated for Best Actress. But only 1 boy has ever been nominated for Best Actor, and that was 90 years ago: Jackie Cooper for ”Skippy” (1931).:
Since we’re talking about great child performances, I can’t help but remind everyone that Roman Griffin Davis gave one of the best child performances I’ve ever seen, just last year, in Jojo Rabbit. I know the competition was stiff, but I still think he should’ve been nominated for Best Actor.
Anna Pacquin in The Piano is the best child performance of all time. Her surprise win was my favourite Oscar moment of all time.
Haley Joel Osment was extraordinary and deserved the win.
Osment would’ve been a worthy winner (over Caine in ”Cider House Rules”).
Davis was terrific in ”Jojo Rabbit” and won last year’s Critics’ Choice for Younger Actor/Actress, but the Academy almost never nominates boys for Best Actor.
Make that 4. Dakota Fanning also got in for I Am Sam. Also another consideration, when was the last time they nominated an Asian male actor? Ken Watanabe was the last time I can remember. The brilliant Rinko Kikuchi was the last Asian performer to get nominated. They snubbed Song Kang-ho last year even with heavy campaigning and loving Parasite. But that was understandable since he’s up against Hollywood royalties. I hope Youn Yuh-jung gets in this year. She desverves to win it all and would be a worthy representative if the Academy choose to only have 1 actor from Minari to nominate.
Dakota Fanning won the Critics’ Choice for Younger Actor/Actress at Critics’ Choice and got a SAG nomination for Supporting Actress for ”I Am Sam,” but did not get an Oscar nomination. … The last Asian male actor to get Oscar-nominated was Dev Patel (”Lion”) in 2017. …And if Youn Yuh-jung wins, she’ll be the first Asian to win Supporting Actress since Miyoshi Umeki (”Sayonara”) in 1958!
Ah yes, thanks for your correction. Patel maybe of Asian descent but he’s English, isn’t he? About time to have another Asian actress to win an Oscar. I really hope it’s Youn!
Kim getting in over someone like Raci would be a travesty.
Finally caught up with Da 5 Bloods. Not a huge Lee fan but the film blew me away. Lindo should be winning this thing.
I don’t get why it isn’t going better awards-wise.
Don’t worry that’s a rhetorical question.
let’s save the word “travesty” for Leto in The Little Se7en
Anya Taylor Joy nominated for Best Actress for Emma.
Jason Woliner nominated for Best Director for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.
Swankie nominated for Best Supporting Actress for Nomadland.
Anya surprise would be glorious. She’s going to be get the Oscar soon anyway, but Emmy first.
My NGNG I guess is
1. The Mauritanian in Best Picture
2. Borat in Picture and Adapted Screenplay
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 gets less than 5 nominations
Agree with The Mauritanian for Best Picture. I’m predicting it – along with Best Actor, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay.
NGNG:
1. Cherry gets three nominations (cinematography, BP, supporting actress)
2. The Father shut out
3. Sacha Baron Cohen nomination
I just watched Cherry last night ans was blown away. The screenplay had its issues atimes but what a film! The last hour I was completely hooked. I’m predicting Cinematography nom.
– All 5 nominees in Best International Feature Film are directed by women (Quo Vadis Aida?, Charlatan, The Man Who Sold His Skin, Hope, The Mole Agent);
– Matteo Garrone’s “Pinocchio” receives 3 nominations: for Make-Up, Art Direction and Costume Design;
– after being off the radar for months, both Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan get nominated for Ammonite
– Fishback in Supporting Actress, hopefully over Close. I wouldn’t mind if Close did get in. I just don’t want her to either lose AGAIN or win for for what’s probably her worst nominated performance.
– Chadwick Boseman ONLY gets in for MA RAINEY. He loses his (IMO undeserved) BSA slot to the greatest performance of the year… Jared Leto 😉
– MANK gets 0 acting nomination, but still leads or ties in total # of nominations
“Chadwick Boseman ONLY gets in for MA RAINEY”
That would be amazing. Raci would get in in that case most likely given that SoM is peaking at the right time.
IMO Raci should be winning BSA and Kaluuya should be in lead because he is a co lead. But then he’d probably lose to Boseman so pick your battles I guess.
I really don’t want Boseman in Supporting Actor either. Gives that space to Boseman’s Ma Rainey costar Glynn Turman.
That’d also be an improvement. I honestly don’t really care who gets in over Chadwick Boseman. That’s why I used the example of Jared Leto, because I’d rather have someone different regardless of who it is get in over his unnecessary double nomination. As terrible as it may sound… I basically see it as he deserves to get nominated for MRBB and is as deserving to win as basically most of the hopeful nominees will be, but his supporting nominations are solely because he passed away so tragically.
1. Promising Young Woman is shut out except for Actress
2. The White Tiger for Best Picture
3. Time is snubbed for Best Documentary 🙁
So… I spent way too much time on these today (looking at stats and precedents, the usual)… and I’ve settled on the following final and official predictions for Best Picture and Best Director nominations at the 2021 Oscars:
Best Picture:
1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Promising Young Woman
4. Minari
5. Mank
6. One Night in Miami
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
8. The Father
9. Sound of Metal
10. Da 5 Bloods
My assumptions about the order of likelihood beyond these 10:
11. Judas and the Black Messiah
12. News of the World
13. Soul
14. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
15. First Cow
NGNG: The Mauritanian
Best Director:
1. Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
2. David Fincher – Mank
3. Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
4. Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
5. Florian Zeller – The Father
Then:
6. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Darius Marder – Sound of Metal
8. Regina King – One Night in Miami
9. Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods
10. Kelly Reichardt – First Cow (also my NGNG in this category)
Some of the reasoning/stats these are based on – picture:
– Only the first 3 seem completely locked, with the other two DGA nominees, Minari and Mank, nearly locked, but I wouldn’t say 100%. The only DGA nominee (1/55) that failed to make the BP lineup at the Oscars in the expanded ballot era, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, was missing from the BP lineups at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and BAFTA (it also didn’t make SAG Ensemble). The only ones that come close to such weakness this year are the two I just mentioned: Mank, which missed BAFTA BP and SAG Ensemble, but got the other two and led nominations in both so I think it’s safe… and Minari, which missed BAFTA and was ineligible for the Globe (plus it didn’t get any nominations from the HFPA besides foreign language film, which suggests, despite the win there, that it would have missed the drama lineup). Still should be safe enough, given how seldom DGA nominees miss.
– The only three movies to make the Oscar Best Picture lineup over the last 9 years (so, with the 5-10 system) that weren’t either among the PGA or the BFCA’s top 10’s are Amour, Philomena and Phantom Thread. (I went into great detail studying these, but I won’t go into it here, apart from the essential stuff. One interesting thing is that they all had precisely 4 BAFTA nominations. First Cow, for instance has zero. Soul has 3 and didn’t get into screenplay.) This year, besides the DGA five, there are One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (which are also helped by having SAG Ensemble – I believe only The Big Sick has missed with all three of these), as well as Sound of Metal, which is in the Nightcrawler position – it’s hit the same major precursors (PGA+BFCA+WGA+ACE+AFI+NBR). There are a bunch of movies (about one every year, on average) which got almost the exact same things and missed, so this is shaky, but the only one to get all six and miss remains Nightcrawler, so Sound of Metal should most likely be in. Missing DGA+BAFTA+SAG+GG has been overcome before, plenty of times. Even with less.
– Which leaves one more slot, realistically, and here I am, as can be seen, going (a first for me, I think) with a non-PGA and non-BFCA nominee (The Father), over several movies that have one or the other this year. We’ll see how that goes… The only BAFTA+GG Best Picture nominee to miss at the Oscars in the expanded ballot era is Carol (1/45). Of course, almost all of them had a lot more than that and The Father doesn’t. But neither did Philomena. There’s also Darkest Hour, which had BFCA instead of GG, so it was in about the same position as The Father. (Both of those did get in.) Carol, if we keep in mind The Father’s ineligibilities at AFI and the WGA, had pretty much the same things, plus the BFCA nomination. Stronger, but comparable. What it didn’t have is the Globe screenplay nomination. Only 4 BAFTA Best Film nominees have missed for Best Picture at the Oscars in the modern preferential era, in fact, and none of them had the Golden Globe screenplay nomination (like The Father), so all of those that have had both have gotten in. This is all borderline but to me it just about builds a strong-enough case to get The Father in, and possibly even ahead of Sound of Metal. Very unclear to me. I’m going with this order and I could easily end up regretting it, if there are eight, not nine, and The Father misses. (And Sound of Metal doesn’t.)
– I could talk in detail about the ranking below the top 10 too, but this is going to be very long as it is and, besides, it’s not as clear there (not that it’s very clear within the top 10, either). I have Da 5 Bloods in 10th because it ticks just enough boxes, in my opinion, to be first alternate. SAG Ensemble helps it a great deal. It also has the BFCA Best Picture nomination. Still shouldn’t be enough for it to get in, as its misses are very serious. But it’s not dead and it is the NBR winner. Enough of those miss, but most don’t. Maybe I should have Soul there instead, maybe I should have Judas… It’s just not clear. Doesn’t really matter, as there are never 10. For Borat and Judas, missing DGA+BAFTA+BFCA+SAG (ensemble, of course) is very bad. Only Amour and Phantom Thread have overcome it under the 5-10 system. (As for Da 5 Bloods’ misses, there just isn’t enough precedent for its setup to rule it out with as much confidence as these two. If it didn’t have SAG Ensemble, it would be much easier.) News of the World has missed entirely too much. It isn’t dead either, even so, and could get in, but I believe in the argument that if it couldn’t at PGA it won’t at the Oscars, either.
Director:
– As we all know, the last 10 years at least one DGA nominee has missed every time. I see no particular reason to predict Sorkin or assume he’s safe. Even if we think he would have made the BAFTA directing lineup, were it not for the jury thing. Interestingly, the last 7 directors to hit all 4 major precursors and be snubbed at the Oscars all failed to win screenplay at Critics Choice. Even though at least 3 of them won in that category elsewhere (major) and all were nominated by the BFCA. Sorkin also failed to win that award this year. Anyway, that’s mostly trivia. Or at least I’m not confident enough it means anything to claim it’s more than that. Regardless, one has to take somebody off the DGA list (although it would be no huge surprise to see them match for the first time in a decade this year, when there are fewer options), and Sorkin seems the most vulnerable to me. Chung too, but he feels more like an AMPAS nominee to me than Sorkin.
– It’s a coincidence I have 3 DGA Best First-Time Feature nominees as my main 3 alternatives to Sorkin (or Chung – or Fennell, I guess, but I don’t want to think about that). The reasons have nothing to do with that. I only have Regina King as low as 8th because GG+BFCA directing nominations are usually not enough without DGA or BAFTA (only 2 recent-ish exceptions out of 8 or 9 people with that combo). And because her movie only has one BAFTA nomination, which is usually not enough to be a non-DGA Oscar nominee for directing. There are, of course, exceptions. She’s also an actor-turned-director, which they can sometimes scoff at, her DGA miss might be more relevant than other people’s, etc.
– In fact, the last 10 non-DGA Oscar nominees in directing have each had 2 or more BAFTA acting nominations or the BAFTA directing or screenplay nominations (usually also combined with an acting nomination). 7 of them have had the screenplay nomination, which The Father does (in addition to an acting nomination that should have been two) but Sound of Metal doesn’t (it has two acting nominations, though, and both are probably legit). These stats are strong before this streak too, by the way. Of course, neither has any major directing nominations, but they have just about enough smaller ones to seem plausible in that sense as well.
– The BAFTA thing also explains why I have Spike Lee and Kelly Reichardt so low (since their movies have a total of 1 BAFTA nomination, which is a jury one, anyway). But still ahead of the other possibilities I considered (the directors of The Mauritanian, Judas and the Black Messiah, Another Round and News of the World, all of which have probably garnered far too few directing mentions thus far to mount a serious challenge, despite doing well enough at BAFTA in the directing/screenplay/acting categories). Reichardt is my NGNG because she’s the only one besides Zhao to get any attention from LAFCA/NYFCC/NSFC (she placed third with the NSFC). And this can sometimes lead to some shockers. NSFC in particular: PTA – Phantom Thread – was also top 3 there, Malick – The Tree of Life – and Haneke – Amour – won it…
Can’t wait for Monday!…
I love your analysis (as always, even if I don’t comment here as much anymore) and wanted you to keep going, particularly with the acting races! You do have me wondering if I am underestimating Sound of Metal. The Nightcrawler comparisons seem interesting, but I know it’s just not as polarizing. But I also wonder if it really has the kind of support in the industry that it does with the critics, outside of Ahmed’s performance and the sound and I guess editing and tagalong supporting actor nominations. Maybe it’s my bias against it. I know many find it uplifting. Stylistically I find it dark and mundane compared to some of the more readily engrossing films of the year. I don’t know if that puts it in Foxcatcher or Nightcrawler territory, but perhaps my issue is that it doesn’t feel like any other typical Best Picture nominee to me and is still a small indie.
I also wonder if I’m overestimating the rise of Judas, but it seems to be peaking now (just like The Father) as a late-breaking entry riding the wave of Kaluuya’s ascendancy rather than something with festival support from over a year ago. Then again, even if it has displaced Da 5 Bloods’ higher ranking (or has it?), could it be no higher than 9th? Admittedly how many films with majority black casts can be nominated on a preferential ballot, even with the Academy’s diversity push? At least none of these are particularly polarizing except for Da 5 Bloods.
Lastly I am also leaning toward Zellner and at the expense of Sorkin for sure. But I wonder if this is one first-time director too many (and the same would go for Regina). Spike Lee’s chances seem dead in the water, but who else is there for this spot? Perhaps Darius Marder, but he’s still pretty unproven and I’m clearly not ready to go there in anticipating that level of support for the film. It’s like we need another Spike Lee-level talent directing a film that’s perhaps less polarizing and more of a typical prestige get.
Thanks!
Well, I only do BP & BD in terms of stats for the nominations phase, each year. Haven’t expanded to the other categories yet – probably too much work, so I might not. I’m struggling for time as it is. 🙂 I still only look at those (all categories outside of BP, BD and maybe screenplay) in terms of final win stats, a few days before the Oscar ceremony. I have files and everything.
Sound of Metal is borderline anyway. I trust it less, statswise, than ONIM and Ma Rainey, which have the ensemble nomination. But I do suspect it gets in. It’s hit too much and, like you say, it seems to have more people that are passionate about it than Nightcrawler (the only other one to ever hit these and miss) did. I haven’t seen it yet so I have no opinion in that respect.
As for Judas, everybody is probably right about that one getting in. 🙂 I’m just predicting what the stats ar saying, as usual. They don’t get it right 100% of the time, either, and the stats that say Judas is less likely to be in or the ones that say The Father and Sound of Metal are more likely to are certainly not super-clear or anything. They could probably be interpreted differently, even. This is just my interpretation, according to how I think it’s most logical to read the precursor distribution and the precedents over the last 10 years or so.
“Admittedly how many films with majority black casts can be nominated on a
preferential ballot, even with the Academy’s diversity push?”
Very good point! 🙂 As for Da 5 Bloods being polarizing, that’s not an issue. What seems to be its issue is that not enough people are passionate about it. Lindo’s misses, Spike’s misses, the WGA miss, the lack of big wins since NBR, etc. – all clues that there isn’t much enthusiasm for it, most probably. We’ll see.
About the first time directors thing: it’s not a problem for me, since I don’t have Regina King in my predicted lineup. 🙂 As for people transitioning from the DGA first-time lineup to the BD Oscar nomination, this is the situation in the 5 years of the category’s existence:
2018 – Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), made both this and the DGA proper, failed to get the Oscar nod
2017 – Jordan Peele (Get Out), made both this and the DGA proper and the Oscar 5
2016 – Garth Davis (Lion), made both this and the DGA proper, failed to make the Oscar 5
No other first-time directors nominated here made the main DGA or Oscar 5. So Zeller making only the first-time lineup but not the DGA lineup and then making it in at the Oscars would be a first, but then again none of the other nominees there in these 5 years were quite this strong in the Oscar race or did so well at BAFTA, so there’s probably no precedent for him not getting in, either. (The strongest besides the ones mentioned were probably Molly’s Game, Deadpool and Eighth Grade.)
Great points as always. I’m so excited! Re: the first-time directors issue, my concern is predicting Zeller when Fennell is also technically a first-time director, even though they only nominated her for DGA proper. I also wonder about that. Might Regina win the other DGA, but Fennell lose anyway? It seems they didn’t want her to double dip, but ironically Regina has more directing experience in TV, for what it’s worth. Maybe they will pick Zeller though or another true novice.
Oh yeah, forgot Fennell also qualified… Hmmm… Damn, I hope this doesn’t mean Zeller replaces Fennell! I’d much rather get my prediction wrong than see that happen.
And then Greengrass or even Spike comes in and we have only 1 woman and no first-time directors…wouldn’t be that surprising
Spike definitely seems possible, but Greengrass has zero directing mentions in precursors (I checked), so that would be pretty unprecedented. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but…
Sound of Metal, which is in the Nightcrawler position – it’s hit the same major precursors (PGA+BFCA+WGA+ACE+AFI+NBR).
And both starred Riz Ahmed. Can lightning strike twice?
Yeah, it was being compared to Nightcrawler already before precursors started announcing, I think. 🙂 And then it somehow got the exact same things, basically proving the comparison was even more accurate than anticipated.
(Replying here, since the other thread was closed:)
“And besides can a Korean speaking movie defeat a SAG frontrunner two years in a row?”
Well, if I could see any group doing this, it would be SAG. 🙂 Not AMPAS, surely! But yes, overall, you’re probably right, Trial is the favorite at SAG. Maybe a big one, maybe not, hard to say. But a favorite. So, besides PGA, WGA will decide, in the end, as usual…
I wanna second (or third) Jorge and Dominik’s No Guts No Glory pick for ”Minari” in all 4 acting categories. Steven Yeun and Youn Yun-jung both have SAG and Critics’ Choice nominations. Alan Kim won a Critics’ Choice for Younger Actor and scored a surprise BAFTA nod for Supporting. And Yeri Han, who should be up for Best Actress, is nominated for an Indie Spirit (albeit in Supporting, with Youn).
AwardsDaily, GoldDerby, Variety and IndieWire are all predicting Yeun and Youn to make the Oscar cut. If they do, it’ll be the first time the Academy has nominated TWO East Asian actors in the same year since 1985 (!): Haing S. Ngor for ”The Killing Fields” and Pat Morita for ”The Karate Kid.” .
Unfortunately, the Academy has such a horrible history of passing over Asian actors, so both Yeun and Youn could come up empty-handed. In recent memory, the Academy ignored these Asian actors who were nominated at other precursors: Hong Chau (”Downsizing”); Michelle Yeoh (”Crazy Rich Asians”); Awkwafina & Shuzhen Zhao (”The Farewell”), and the SAG-winning Ensemble of ”Parasite.” And they didn’t nominate any Asian actors from Best Picture nominees, like ”Crouching Tiger,” ”Letters From Iwo Jima” and ”Life of Pi,” or Best Picture winners, like ”The Last Emperor” and ”Slumdog Millionaire.”
– Mank shutout from everything but technical fields
– First Cow gets in for Adapted Screenplay AND Cinematography
– SAcha Baron Cohen, MArk Rylance & Yahya Abdul-Mateen II nominated for Trial of the Chicago 7
Paul raci for supporting actor
Mank leads the nominations but doesn’t get best picture
Leslie Odom jr. gets two nominations for one night in Miami
Leslie Odom Jr. scored TWO nominations from the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice (and he won for Song at the latter). I’d be surprised if he DIDN’T get TWO Oscar nominations.
Wow, a new Dreamgirls situation! But with 8/9 up for picture instead of 5. That would be something… (Although I hope not, because Mank is one of the best of the year, for sure.)
Hey Sasha and Ryan and the team. This is a good a place as any to impart thanks for the guts and probably little glory (see i got it in there!) in keeping the comments sections as open and open hearted as you do.
As a regular here for a little over half the time you have been here, I know how much i get from clicking in and reading and responding and initiating thoughts and rambles, to a truly international and wonderful group of comrades and allies and friends. With the season about to get to its pointy end (finally), I wanted to give thanks, as I know you cop a lot of heat for – well, simply having your own points of view and perspectives.
What a gift it is to have this place to come and be.
So thank you for the guts it takes to keep backing it up and doing it again, and for the small glory that you probably yield, but deserve much more.
Peace out!
David Strathairn gets his second nod in Supporting, Mads for Best Actor, Another Round Best OPicture
3 acting nominations for Judas and the Black Messiah
3 acting nominations for Sound of Metal
2 acting nominations for Never Rarely Sometimes ALWAYS
Jingle Jangle earns 3 tech nods (costumes , makeup, song)
Tahar Rahim is nominated for lead actor instead of Gary Oldman.
Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah) is nominated for director.
I can see all of those being possible.
neither would shock me. Specially the Jingle Jangle ones. And the costume one would be EXTREMELY deserved.
Although I haven’t predicted Jingle Jangle anywhere, it *totally* feels plausible that it could surprise in multiple categories.
Also – I feel like Shaka King is def a possibility in director, despite the lack of precursors.
It’s not really a NGNG because she won the Globe but I can absolutely see Rosamund Pike getting into the Best Actress field. My actual NGNG is Tenet in Best Picture.
Best Actor Mads Mikkelsen for Another Round
Eurovision gets a song nomination
Best Supporting Actress Candace Bergen for Let Them All Talk
Bo Burnham gets in for supporting actor with Promising Young Woman leading with 9 nominations.
Wouldn’t be great if BB is the only nomination of PYW above the line?
LOL! No! PYW was my favorite this year. Plus that would be crappy if they ONLY nominated the dude in a female driven picture about sexual assault. I don’t think BB was worthy of a nom either. It’s just my left field pick.
I don’t think it would be great. I didn’t find him very effective in the role – he had like two expressions the whole movie! – pretty ordinary I thought. If there is a sole nomination for Promising Young Woman it should go to Carey Mulligan. I predict it will get two noms – Screenplay the other.
Agreed on BB. I think it will actually end up with maybe 5: picture, actress, director, screenplay and possibly editing.
Possibly, I just don’t think it is as great as many have found it to be. I had very high expectations, and of course, no movie can live up to high expectations. Damn the Internet and Word of Mouth! 🙂
I get it. A film needs to resonate with you. PYW, Sound of Metal & Da 5 Bloods were the only contenders I could watch more that once this year. The others are great, but didn’t resonate as much for me.
Sound of Metal absolutely resonated with me; as did Minari – others too, not in the Oscar field – ‘La Belle Epoque’, ‘Your Name Engraved Herein’ really spoke to me.
Promising Young Woman resonated in parts for me, but as a whole it didn’t; and as i’ve expressed elsewhere on this site, it was the tonal shifts that kept jarring me. rather than just being able to go along for the ride at every turn. Normally I would be ok with a jaunty journey, but with this subject matter, those sometimes awkward shifts and Directorial choices – namely the scenes with Jennifer Coolidge; led me to be distracted by comedic elements that were either intended, but for me clumsily executed, or just casting actors that weren’t that great: Bo Burnham and also the guy in the climactic sequence who i also thought was not well directed. The script was fascinating, but the final product didn’t quite live up to – pardon the pun – the promising set up or themes.
And curious that ACE nominated it in Comedy; I half expected it to be entered into the Comedy Field at the Golden Globes too – so unsure was I as to what it was. Not that every movie needs to be easily slotted into a category or genre, but with sexual assault and trauma, this was a really unsettling mix of style and form.
Yeah, to me it’s definitely not a comedy. It’s less a comedy than The Martian, which we all agree is also not a comedy. 🙂 Maybe it helps – maybe it would have been harder for it to get the ACE nod in drama.
I guess we need to agree to disagree because the change in pace of the film is what I liked about PYW. It was not the film I expected and I loved the look of the film as well as the story, and more importantly for me, the message. I had zero problems with Jennifer Coolidge, who I adore, and I thought the cast was well directed – apparently the DGA thought so too. It will be interesting to see if the Academy feels the same, although I’ve learned not to care to much if they snub my favorites. I’m glad you and I agree on Sound of Metal.
Mostly i’ve stopped caring what the majors think. I have seen too many odd choices and great films snubbed over the years. Yes, we love what we love, and what we don’t is as with everything else, personal taste and perspective. I can see the passion that PYM has generated. It will probably be in my Top 30 of films seen this year (hope to reach my annual target of 150), but I don’t think overall it is worthy of the BP/BD noms or prizes given – even my own Academy – AACTA rewarded it Best Picture. Different strokes for different folks. 🙂
I’m the same, I don’t really care what any of these groups pick anymore. (For the same reason as you, of course.) But it’s still super-nice to see the people (or movies) I like get recognition and make history and go on stage and give speeches and everything, which is why I still get invested, even beyond the stats thing, when I really like a movie or a performance or something like that. This year, with Carey in ProYo, more than most years. I guess I just completely fell in love with the character and its tragic story (not many have stayed with me quite to this extent in recent years), plus I already liked her (Carey) a great deal, so…
Notwithstanding my concerns with PYM, i was really sad she didn’t get the Globe or BAFTA nod, but the performance stands as one of if not the year’s best and like you have enjoyed and respected her work for the past decade.
And will be rooting for her to win the Oscar!
She got the Globe nod, she just didn’t win. (Sadly.)
Yep I knew there was something missing. A comma, after Globe. 🙂 I witnessed live that loss!
🙂 The most efficient solution…
I had high expectations too, and still loved it. 🙂 Doesn’t happen that often…
There’s almost no chance Mank doesn’t lead nominations on Monday… (Even if it misses a bunch it’s expected to get.)
Robert De Niro nominated for Best Actor in a Leading Role for his portrayal of Frank Sheeran in the motion picture The Irishman directed by Martin Scorsese.
Write-in.
✍️
De Niro was the iceberg that sank The Irishman last year
Minarí gets in 4 acting categories
Tahar rahim for best actor
Seyfried snubbed
I actually happen to agree Seyfried being snubbed is NGNG, but most people (and probably the stats) wouldn’t. 🙂
Sophia Loren for Best Actress
Sound of Metal in Picture and Directing
Keeping my fingers crossed.
I am rooting for Sophia Loren, no secret. She’s absolutely amazing in that film.
Sound of Metal is this year’s Whiplash. Admittedly, it’s better than Whiplash, and Ahmed way better than Teller was, but Simmons was way better than Raci is. In my book, Sound of Metal deserves noms for Actor and Sound. Nothing else, enough reward. I like the film, but come on… people goes too easily for showy non-usual directing stunts (the use of noise)… maybe it is because of my continous tinnitus that I am completely unimpressed… but it’s not the first time some “noise” is used to make us feel in the character’s feet (just think how overused the technique is in any action film after an explosion), here is just done longer, and gets even exhausting. Overall, it’s again the story of an obsession, in this case, Ahmed’s character refusal to acknowledge that his life is changed forever and there’s no real come back. Ahmed’s performance absolutely conveys this obsession and denial, but Raci has a calm character with a very good monologue at the end of his role’s screen presence, but has no character arch, and basically is the same character all through the film. Olivia Cooke, well, here character arch is completely out of screen for the most time, and while we can fill in the blanks, the character is missing so much, that we experience the same WTF of Ahmed’s character (which admittedly may be the point) after finding out she’s moved on. Overall it is a cross between Children of a Lesser God and Whiplash, thematically and emotionally, and actually better than both of them… but it’s no masterpiece, just a great film. I’ve seen plenty of better, more Best Picture deserving films this year… just to name one that should be compulsory viewing: “Collective”. That one is truly breathtaking and jawdropping. I really encourage everyone to see it. Here in Spain is streaming on HBO… so probably is in HBO as well in the USA.
Given this year competition being a good film is enough to win an Oscar, see Nomadland
soon. Today I saw Minari and yes, a great, great film (but misses my top 10)
Pike best actress
Rahim best actor
Mank no acting noms
No. 7 Cherry Lane gets in Animated Feature
Barb and Star Go to Vista del Mar in Original Screenplay
Michelle Pfeiffer takes a Lead Actress spot
Kate Winslet for best actress.
Michelle Pfeiffer makes the cut for French Exit
Toni Collette gets a Sup Actress nod for I’m thinking of Ending Things
Gretel & Hansel recognized for Cinematography
Gretel & Hansel deserves noms for Costume, Production Design and Cinematography, undoubtedly. Truly worthy
Straithairn in Supporting (note Variety picked him too, what are they hearing)
Marder instead of Sorkin in Directing
Record number of non-white nominees followed by record number of concern troll articles declaring this to be the “death of the Oscars”
If Straithairn gets in that is a sign of huge support for ‘Nomadland’. Marder is a dark horse.
I think this line of thinking is overrated. Roma shocked by getting two acting nominations when it seemed like they only had an outside chance of getting even one. People said it was a sign that Roma was more popular than we thought, but it wasn’t. Same story with Jackie Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook.
You mean Silver Linings Playbook (or separately the nominations sweep of American Hustle), but agreed. What it points to is that a film is a top-tier contender in terms of the Best Picture nomination and more popular than certain disposable acting contenders.
And ‘Parasite’ did not have any acting Oscar nominations. I think that
‘Silver Linings Playbook’ may have been third in the Best Picture vote after ‘Argo’ and maybe ‘Life Of Pi’. But I think that acting nominations mattered for ‘Spotlight’.
May have even been second… Was missing way fewer key nominations than Pi and lost screenplay because Argo was there. (Pi was never winning screenplay.)
Yup. Surprise acting nominations, as with most such things, can be a sign of major support, but aren’t necessarily a sign of enough support to win BP, plus they can also be a sign of lack of support for the other main contenders, of very evenly-split support for a bunch, etc. – many other things.
I am predicting The Mauritanian scores big noms…Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Supporting. Maybe Directing and Screenplay
Leslie Odom Jr. gets nominated for Music and not One Night in Miami.
Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan both get nominated for Ammonite.
Michael Stuhlbarg, Stanley Tucci, or Toby Wallace surprise in supporting actor.
Any Supernova mention would be nice…
Also, I found Ammonite very underrated
For me an NGNG contender is one who didn’t receive a single nomination from the GUILD-BAFTA-HFPA-BFCA quartet OR got at least 3 of the 4 and I still expect them to be snubbed. So with that in mind :
– JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH overperforms with both Shaka King and LaKeith Stanfeld making the cut in director and lead actor, respectively.
– AARON SORKIN snubbed in Best Director. In recent years the Director’s Branch saw through the somewhat undeserved hype machines behind good-not-great directorial achievements of relative rookie directors (Ben Affleck, Bradley Cooper, Garth Davis) and I expect them to do the same with Sorkin this year.
– OLIVIA COLMAN snubbed in Best Supporting Actress. That category is very much up in the air still and while stats-wise she is looking very good for the nomination, I just don’t sense the kind of passion around her work this time around that could get her in, she also has the “eh we just gave her one in lead” factor probably working against her.
P.S. And while they don’t qualify as either locks nor NGNG (they seem to be in the #4-6 range), I just sincerely hope that the well-deserved first nominations for Vanessa Kirby and Amanda Seyfried will happen on Monday. I am probably most invested in those two bubble contenders in the acting categories this season since my other favourite performances are either locks (Boseman, Mulligan, Ahmed, Oldman, Kaluuya) or impossible long shots (Pike, Moss, Patel, Mbatha-Raw, Wiest, Tucci).
“LaKeith Stanfeld”
As long as it isn’t at the expense of Steven Yeun, who is the most vulnerable.
Not sure where Yeun stands with a single SAG nomination, stats-wise I think we would have to go back to Demian Bichir to find someone who got an Oscar nomination with only that one major precursor nod, but he is definitely in the mix. My guess is Boseman-Hopkins-Ahmed are in; Oldman is probably in but could miss; and the 5th slot is probably down to Yeun-Lindo-Stanfeld with two of the three getting in if Oldman misses.
Yalitza Aparicio only had one major precursor nod, and Marina de Tavira had zero. You just never know.
plenty of us thought that would help last year to Song Kahn-ho to get the nom for Parasite as well… however it never materialized.
True though he was up against 5 Oscar-winning legends
Agreed. I’d add Tahar Rahim to the 5th spot line-up since he got Globe + BAFTA noms.
It seems to me the trouble with getting nominated by just one group is it usually means your movie/performance truly and strongly resonated only with that group, due to whatever biases/sensibilities, not with the population at large. Which makes it unlikely for the Academy (or its respective branch, as may be the case) to be only the second such (major) group. Of course, if you want to make any one precursor and none of the others, it’s the guild, because of the voter overlap.
There used to also be BAFTA, but now it’s just not clear anymore, in a bunch of categories.
I could totally see the Sorkin and Colman snubs happening.
Langella for Supporting Actor
Amy Adams for Actress
Borat for Best Picture
Wow 21st NG NG = there’s a reason to celebrate – happy 21st Sasha and Ryan and the team. 🙂
I’ll play (although it feels like ‘wishcraft’ rather than a genuine hope for an outcome)
Michelle Pfeiffer for French Exit BA
Dianne Wiest for I Care A Lot BSA
Darius Marder for Sound of Metal BD
Off topic, but Razzie nominations out:
Worst Picture
365 Days
Absolute Proof
Dolittle
Fantasy Island
Music
Worst Actor
Robert Downey, Jr. – Dolittle
Mike Lindell (“My Pillow” Guy) – Absolute Proof
Michele Morrone – 365 Days
Adam Sandler – Hubie Halloween
David Spade – The Wrong Missy
Worst Actress
Anne Hathaway – The Last Thing He Wanted AND Roald Dahl’s The Witches
Katie Holmes – Brahms: The Boy II AND The Secret: Dare to Dream
Kate Hudson – Music
Lauren Lapkus – The Wrong Missy
Anna-Maria Sieklucka – 365 Days
Worst Supporting Actress
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Lucy Hale – Fantasy Island
Maggie Q – Fantasy Island
Kristen Wiig – Wonder Woman 1984
Maddie Ziegler – Music
Worst Supporting Actor
Chevy Chase – The Very Excellent Mr. Dundee
Rudy Giuliani – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Shia LeBeouf – The Tax Collector
Arnold Schwarzeneggar – Iron Mask
Bruce Willis – Breach, Hard Kill AND Survive the Night
Worst Screen Combo
Maria Bakalova & Rudy Giuliani – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Robert Downey Jr. & His Utterly Unconvincing “Welsh” Accent – Dolittle
Harrison Ford & That Totally Fake-Looking CGI “Dog” – Call of the Wild
Lauren Lapkus & David Spade – The Wrong Missy
Adam Sandler – Hubie Halloween
Worst Director
Charles Band – All 3 Barbie & Kendra movies
Barbara Bialowas & Tomasz Mandes – 365 Days
Stephen Gaghan – Dolittle
Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy
Sia – Music
Worst Screenplay
365 Days
All 3 Barbie & Kendra Movies
Dolittle
Fantasy Island
Hillbilly Elegy
Worst Remake, Rip-off or Sequel
365 Days (Polish Remake of 50 Shades of Grey)
Dolittle (Remake)
Fantasy Island (TV remake)
Hubie Halloween (Remake of Ernest Scared Stupid)
Wonder Woman 1984 (Sequel)
If Glenn Close gets an Oscar nomination Monday for ”Hillbilly Elegy,” has anyone else done that: received a Razzie nomination and an Oscar nomination for the same role?
Maria Bakalova, if she’s nominated for Oscar. But here’s a catch, she’s nominated for the razzie BECAUSE of Giuliani, not because of her performance.
James Coco in 1982.
loved James Coco in ‘Only When I Laugh’ if that is what he was nominated for. I didn;t know he was Razzie nommed too. Marsha Mason and the late greats Joan Hackett and James Coco deserved their Oscar nominations in what i think was Neil Simon’s last great film script.
And James Coco was SO hilarious in ‘Murder By Death’ and ‘The Cheap Detective’
I hadn’t heard of The Cheap Detective before – this is a great discovery for me. I’m putting it very high on my list… Thanks!
Same with Amy Irving for Yentl
She could totally win both.
James Coco remains the only actor to receive Oscar, Globe, and Razzie noms for the same performance. Amy Irving got Oscar and Razzie.
I’m particularly intrigued by the level of Globe/Razzie overlap in certain years, including this current one. BUTTERFLY and ANNIE were notable examples.
Sophia Loren, Ellen Burstyn, and Delroy Lindo, all make the cut
The Vast of Night write-in vote for Best Picture. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af246b090a3b1398813d8e38be39e3212eb3b9417112be6c7145fb430da06c4f.jpg
on one side, it would be a nice surprise.
on the other hand… I mean, it’s very good. But Best Picture? It’s completely superficial and merely just a stunt, isn’t it?
It was a skillful, assured debut. Was it THE best movie of the year? No. But it was definitely in my top 10 and sported a great performance from Sierra McCormick and stunning cinematography. I look forward to whatever else this director decides to make in the future.
me too… does so much with so little. Still, the screenplay is beyond weak in themes, it’s purely anecdotic, and it could have been way more. But well, for a film debut, it is a good decission… keep it simple, don’t bite more than you can chew. That’s for the sophomore project.
I thought that ‘The Tree Of life’ was an example of biting more than you can chew. But Mallick’s ambition was laudable.
“The Tree of Life”… I think Mallick nailed it. It’s my “Best Picture” pick for its year.
Mallick transmits to the audience as much as possible of the abstract feel of the cycle of life and death and why every minute of your life counts, but at the same time it doesn’t in the great scheme of the universe. He transmits the wonders of nature and the mere existence. Extremely ambitious, for sure, but also extremely successful. I am still amazed that the AMPAS multinominated it…
I enjoyed the scenes of Brad Pitt and his family. What do you think of Mallick’s movies after ‘Tree Of Life’? They were mostly panned. Mallick is not for everyone.
because Mallick is not easy to swallow. It’s a master of “sensations” and abstract rather than pure narrative. That is why it amazes me that he has been nominated by the AMPAS several times… it has been the quality / prestige vote. But giving him the win? No way. His movies aren’t giving money to the industry. And this is the industry vote.
this year, by the way, I was surprised by “The Roads not Taken”, starring Javier Bardem and Elle Fanning in two Oscar-worthy performances. A very good film, if not among the year’s best. It’s a bit Mallick-like here and there, and that probably works against it (poor man’s Mallick sensation). Not easy to digest, but I found it worthy of attention. Bardem would be among my nominees for Lead Actor this year.
This is my provisional line up…
Javier Bardem, The Roads not Taken
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (winner)
Chani Martin, Historias Lamentables*
Iván Massagué, The Platform
Gary Oldman, Mank
* as Historias Lamentables may switch to 2021 given a possible US release, the alternates for Martín are Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) and Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) to substitute him, case I move Historias Lamentables to 2021
You mean kind of like a millionaire actress in a faux documentary trying to assimilate among actually nomads?
Ouch!
My issue was that it was basically an Amazon ad.
That too.
While I loved it, it won’t happen.
Kelly Reichardt gets in for Best Director for First Cow
Charlie Kaufman gets nominated for Adapted Screenplay
Pinocchio for Best Costume, MakeUp and Production Design
Hillbilly Elegy for Best Picture
Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian) for Best Actor
Frank Langella (Chicago 7) for Best Supporting Actor (and I sincerely hope he gets in)
Sorry, but if you get Globe and BAFTA noms, that’s hardly a NGNG pick for Oscar.
Delroy Lindo still makes it in.
Razzies nominations announced and no article 🙁
Ron Howard and Glenn Close both nominated… LOL!
Howard? Fine, although his direction was certainly competent (I thought the script was the big issue). But Close? There are plenty of problems with Hillbilly Elegy but Close is not one of them. I would have nominated Adams over her. Frankly, the Razzies always go for the low-hanging fruit and never make brave choices. They always pick the right-wing political films or the flops with big names or the latest Sandler flick. If they had any balls they’d go after the big failed Oscar-bait pictures or weird vanity projects like The Goldfinch or Malcolm and Marie.
Also, Kristen Wiig but no Gal Gadot?
I´d blame the screenplay and the directing. Glenn Close was certainly not Razzie-worthy, I agree.
Ron Howard was the absolute worst director for material of that kind (leaving aside what a pedantic on the nose script that was). He’s a subtle as an Aaron Sorkin monologue about a Moody Blues drug song.
Think if someone with a REAL eye for rural America like Chloe Zhao had developed that property. Of course, the culture warriors on the right would have hated that.
They couldn’t recognize the failure of “visionary director” Sam Levinson? What’s their use for existing?
yep that was a bit much wasn’t it in the trailer? 🙂 🙂
What can I say? It was a bullshit film.
‘Malcolm and Marie’ is not a bad movie. It is just not at the level of Linklater’s ‘Before Midnight’ or Mamet’s ‘Oleanna’ both brilliant two handers.
It’s certainly not a good movie.
Same thoughts here.
And technically Maria Bakalova as well as Music, Sia, and Kate Hudson (also expected)
But I guess that every time Rudolph Giuliani meets another person it´s a Worst Combo situation – on screen or off screen! 🙂
He´s just that kinda guy…
That’s preposterous. Razzies obviously just seeks attention dragging Bakalova among their nominees. And Hudson wasn’t bad in Music, even her vocal performance in the film is better than most pop singers of today.
Amy Adams in actress
SBC snubbed in supporting actor for Bill Murray
The Father in for Best picture
I think SBC may well miss too.
or score BOTH noms as in the Globes. I think that, is waaaaay more likely than him missing both.
He’s not missing in supporting. Missing BAFTA was enough. He’s been too strong to miss two big ones.
Frank Langella get a supporting actor nomination for ‘Trial’ not SBC.
SBC instead gets a lead actor nomination for ‘Borat’.
Rosamund Pike gets nominated.
NGNG:
The Vast of Night in for Picture
Hillbilly Elegy in for Picture (Though maybe over time it’s inched closer to legitimacy? I’m not at all sure.)
The Boys in the Band in for Production Design
HE in BP is definitely NGNG. It has no actual BP (or BD or screenplay, as far as I know) precursor nominations. I would go so far as to call it too much of an NGNG, as in one too unlikely to happen to even pick. 🙂 But I’d love it if it got in. It probably doesn’t quite deserve to, but it definitely doesn’t deserve the panning it’s gotten.
Thanks for this. Your eerily exact positioning of the movie is very helpful. I’m now thinking that your “too much of an NGNG” characterization is precisely where it stands at this point. Monday it might surprise in BP, but I doubt it, as I imagine you do, too. And the panning it’s gotten remains a vexing mystery to me. I think only movie history over the next couple of decades will sort out a just ranking for it.
I hope I’m wrong. 🙂 But stats-wise it would be almost mind-blowing if it got in. I doubt there’s even a single BP nominee over the last who-knows-how-many years that had zero BP precursor mentions. Or anywhere near zero. BoRhap comes close, but even it had a few – and of course won the drama Globe…
Sophia Loren gets nominated Best Actress (The Life Ahead)
1. Trial of the Chicago 7 gets 2 Actors in for Best Supporting Actor:
Sacha Baron Cohen + Mark Rylance
OR
Sacha Baron Cohen + Frank Langella
2. News of the World gets 3 above the line nods: Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actress nominations.
Yay!!
Music in costume design
Ben Mendehlson and Essie Davis in for Babyteeth
Bakalova nominated in lead
Swankie gets a supporting actress nomination.
Only one lady in the Directing category.
Maria Bakalova placed in the best lead actress race.
Ellen Burstyn and Frank Langella both for their supporting roles.
I would delight in HILLBILLY ELEGY scoring four Oscar nominations (Pic, Actress, Supp Actress, Hair & Make-Up). It would make my pandemic to see the heads of the film’s vitriolic critics/commenters simply explode. LOL Ahh…a boy can dream, right?
Why stop at four, then? Let it have 14!
Sure! Adapted Screenplay! Editing! Too bad there wasn’t a “Best Food Styling” category. Those were some badass fried bologna sandwiches that were served up in the film!
No… 15. New nomination record holder HILLBILLY ELEGY!!!
But then the Oscars might be bullied into going the way of the BAFTAs. So I kind of hope it doesn’t happen, even though it would be satisfying.
NGNG
1) Borat Subsequent Moviefilm up for Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Song
2) Judas and the Black Messiah up for Picture, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Film Editing
3) Collective gets in for both International and Documentary
4) The Father gets only Hopkins and Screenplay nominations.
5) Mank misses Best Picture, Director and any acting nomination, but scores almost every technical.
6) News of the World completely shut out.
7) Another Round gets Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay and International Film nominations. Maybe Film Editing as well?
I can’t resist to give some probably controversial thoughts on this year’s main contenders…
1) Mank is a masterpiece. I mean, really. Just look at it. It’s deep, masterfully planned, written, acted and directed. It’s one of Fincher’s best films and by a landslide, his most personal.
2) Da 5 Bloods is another complete masterpiece. I find discouraging that people doesn’t really deconstruct what’s seen on screen, the characters interactions and their position as allegories for abstract concepts, and I saw no review mentioning the “heritage” as main motto of the film, which it is, and fully analyzed from different perspectives. Spike Lee at the top of its game, and it rivals with Do the Right Thing, only he’s over 70 when he has done this film.
3) I can’t understand why “Spotlight” won Best Picture and people haven’t gone nuts for “Collective” which is a “Spotlight”-like case for real, unfolding in front of our very own eyes, shocking us again and again as we discover the events with the filmmakers in almost “real time”. It’s Best Picture, Director material. The fact that it can lose a Documentary nom to something like “The Social Dilemma” – so stagey, while still a good film – is heartbreaking.
4) Eurovision Song Contest is actually a pretty good, but flawed film. McAdams and Stevens should have been in the conversation at least for the Globes
5) If The Prom makes the cut for Picture in a surprise twist, I am going to spam to force everyone to see the actually good and fresh musical of the year: “Valley Girl”. For God’s Sake.
6) Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami are great films. But hardly the actual level I like in my Best Picture line up. Ma Rainey is the better acted of the two… and in One Night in Miami, half the time I was watching Malcom X and other half time the same actor playing Barack Obama… that’s… weird.
7) News of the World… listen, I love Greengrass. He’s a master. But this is just pure Oscarbait and a minor call back to two better films: Unforgiven and The Searchers, overall. Zengel is good but she’s not Anna Paquin or Wallis, her performance isn’t that challenging (no offense, from what I know she was already Oscar-worthy in System Crasher!). Hanks was the best thing in the film, by the way, he was spectacularly good.
8) I am no fan of Nolan, but Tenet… probably should be up for Picture and Director. There, I said it.
9) Sound of Metal… Sound design and Ahmed aside… I wasn’t that impressed? Maybe is because I suffer from tinnitus and Ménière Syndrome since 2014? Felt somewhat related but I thought the film was Whiplash redux, overall. And I hated Whiplash.
Keep stanning Borat!
I am just an echo of the Guilds and the HFPA and BFCA… the movie has as much momentum – or even more – than Judas and the Black Messiah… both of them are peaking at the key moment for the nominations, so I am holding my breath to see what goes on with both, on nomination morning. Borat can be emptyhanded and Judas score only a nom for Kaluuya and maybe screenplay… but they also can assault in plenty of places.
When I think about Wuhan Flu being nominated, I can’t help remembering Blame Canada’s nomination.
Yep what confuses me is that several movies are peaking at the same time (Sound of Metal, Judas, Minari, Borat) so they can create surprises.
😉
Your NGNG no. 2 & 5 are making real sense to me
I agree with so much of that… And Colectiv is definitely in my top 3 in both picture and director, thus far. (Having only seen maybe a third of what I plan on seeing.
Minari gets nominated in all four acting categories.
Glenn Close gets snubbed.
Eliza Hittman takes Jack Finchers spot for Original screenplay.
All of these are very possible. I am pulling for Hittman to get nominated but not at the cost of ‘Mank’. If the Academy does not want to give Close the Oscar for this role they may decide not to nominate her. ‘Minari’ getting in for all the four acting categories would be reminiscent of David O Russell movies.
You are right, “American … (I have to google the title, shame on me) … Hustle” received noninations in all acting categories, right? One example for a movie I saw once and forgot almost immediately LOL, but I´m no O´Russell fan, to be true.
Some people called ‘American Hustle’ Scorcese lite. ‘Wolf Of Wall Street’ came out that same year. i think that ‘Three Kings’ and ‘American Hustle’ are his two masterpieces. Wonder why David O’ Russell stopped making movies. ‘Joy’ was released in 2014.
and the pretty average ‘Silver Linings Playbook’ had 4 Acting noms; where J-Law won an Oscar over the heartbreaking turn by the BAFTA/CESAR winning Emmanuelle Riva in ‘Amour’.
That was such a typical Academy vulgarity!
I guess Riva was just too good for them.
She was. That was a performance for the ages!
I’m more inclined to think Minari gets snubbed in all 4. I don’t want Yeun to lose a nom but I could see a Tahar Rahim or some out of the left field (Lakeith Standfield,Lindo) upset there. 5th spot is still very fluid and while Yeun’s movie is surging, I fear for him.
The crazy thing is: Minari could indeed end up without a single acting nomination. It would be a shame but we all remember how they – even though loving the film – snubbed every possible candidate from “Parasite”. I don´t know why they shied away from honoring Asian actors in the past, but this year will hopefully be different – more love for Asian actors, please! 😉
Yep and parasite was much bigger deal than Minari.
Yes, but without the precursor support for any of its actors beyond the SAG Ensemble win (not that it stopped Yalitza let alone Marina as noted)
True.
But PARASITE never had any major acting nod support outside of SAG ensemble.
Mads Mikkelsen gets in for Best Actor.
Borat gets 4-5 nominations.
on Mads, I completely agree. Even Another Round making a huge splash…
Hillbilly Elegy would be a fuck all if it happens… LOL
I think Judas and the Black Messiah is a fringe contender, as much as it annoys me, since that movie is FIRE. I am worried that it doesn’t have enough support.
So with those ideas in mind… my NGNG ideas are:
Bakalova is STILL nominated. Even though comedy is a non-starter with the AMPAS voters.
Mark Rylance is once again nominated for The Trial of the Chicago 7
Sacha Baron Cohen is NOT nominated for Supporting Actor
Minari is the MOST nominated movie, and Mank is nearly shut out.
Good GOD. What am I saying!??!
Sacha Baron Cohen not nominated for anything this year would be shocking… he’s up as Producer, Actor (x2), Writer and Songwriter, and with chances and precursor love (for noms) on all of them… if he gets completely shut out, he’s winning for whatever he does next that is Oscar-friendly.
Yeah, it would be pretty crazy IF it happens for sure. I think he is getting in, but I know there is some fears out there that he might not. But the funny part about movies like that, is how do you choose who to nominate when all actors hold each other up in tandem?
while I think Rylance was best in show, SBC was close second, in my opinion, and has the showiest role and with the widest range, jumping from comedy to drama, effortlessly. I think people isn’t taking him as seriously, because SBC is kind of the same person in real life, and that’s why he was a perfect casting for the role, for starters. I wonder what film would have happened if “Bohemian Rhapsody” was starred by him and shot as originally he had in mind… would he have also won the Oscar, as Rami Malek did? Probably, if you ask me.
‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ would probably have been more creative with SBC not a by the numbers biopic.
indeed. I understand the hate for SBC – love it or hate it – but he’s a treasure to behold. The true bastard son of Peter Sellers and the Monty Python.
NGNG
Lakeith Stanfield in Actor
Shaka King in Directing
I’m Thinking of Ending Things in Adapted Screenplay
Glad to see I am not alone with my Judas hunch.
We’re probably wrong, but we’ll go down together.
David Strathairn – Supporting Actor
Thomas Vinterberg – Director, Another Round
Palm Springs – Screenplay
NGNG….
Olivia Cooke in for Supporting for Sound of Metal
Rosamund Pike in for Actress for I Care a Lot
Darius Marder in for directing Sound of Metal
What would blow my mind on Monday
News of the world gets nominated for best picture
First Cow gets nominated for best director
Mank gets nominated only in the techs
Mank gets nominated only in the techs.That is a fear.
Best Picture Never rarely sometimes always and First Cow both should be nominated.
Best supporting actor Davis Strathaim Nomadland.
Kingsley Ben-Adir gets Best Actor nomination for One Night In Miami instead of Gary Oldman for Mank.
Shaka King gets Best Director nomination for Judas and The Black Messiah, replacing Sorkin.
Nicole Beharie gets Best Actress nomination for Miss Juneteenth taking out Vanessa Kirby’s spot.
*extra: Glynn Turman gets Best Supporting Actor for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom instead of Sacha Baron Cohen
Arliss Howard (MANK) in for Supporting Actor
Yeri Han (MINARI) in for Lead Actress
Kelly Reichardt (FIRST COW) in for Director
Arliss Howard being nominated gives me William Hurt in A History of Violence flashbacks.
Except that Hurt won multiple major critics awards.
Well, if he WAS, that’s what it would remind me of.
I would love to hear from @disqus_XGMFdSf96C:disqus and Sammy. What say you both? https://media0.giphy.com/media/uLnPIWsqIz2aA/giphy.gif
First Cow gets in for screenplay
Vinterberg gets in for director.
Vinterberg could be a spoiler, possibly taking Fincher’s spot.
Mank gets the most nominations, but Oldman is snubbed for Lindo or Yeun.
Sound of Metal surprises everyone with 9 nominations (Second only to Mank.) Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Sound, Editing, Original Song.
Alan Kim gets nominated for Minari.
#1 is extremely plausible. I also like your #2.
Viola Davis in, but in Supporting Actress
Bo Burnham nominated in Supporting Actor
Charles Dance nominated in Supporting Actor (Mank)
Bakalova and Davis switching categories would be great.
Best Supporting Actress – Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)
Best Song – Green (Sound of Metal)
One can only hope.
the moment I heard Green at the end credits I thought it would be a contender… but playing against it: it’s an end credits song, and they are encouraged to not vote for them, but to vote for things that are integral to the film story itself, in this year, songs like Husavik and Wuhan Flu. That’s why I am doubtful they will go for Green… which is a nice song, regardless
Keeping my fingers crossed for Green.
I like it. A lot. Still, as long as Husavik wins, I am happy. Husavik is the reason why Original Song was created… if you only hear the song you think it is nice, but if you see the film, you know that the whole movie has been building for that song to happen and be the climatic resolution of the film, closing two key character archs that have been the whole film’s journey.
Seriously, it’s no masterpiece but it’s a great film regardless.
Couldn’t agree more. It’s not winning, though, unfortunately.
Fincher gets Snubbed as Oscars try to match the three women globe line up, we know they’re capeble of such crime
Aaron Sorkin snubbed in direction.
Bo Burnham nominated in supporting actor.
No white straight man in directing.
I would love to see Bo Burnham nominated.!!
Let’s see for director…
Lee Isaac Chung
Chloe Zhao
Emerald Fennell
…
Then?
Perhaps?:
Regina King
Shaka King
George C. Wolfe
Spike Lee
Who are the other two?
Another NGNG is that somehow Sound of Metal misses the nomination for Sound.
Even more crazy is that Tenet somehow does get in, maybe in Sound of Metal’s place.