Awards Daily’s Oscar Squad weighs in on the race following the Golden Globes, BAFTA nominations, and a handful of guild nominations. Most everything remained in alignment with the notable exception of the Best Supporting Actress race. Glenn Close’s omission at BAFTA gave enough Squaddies cold feet to drop her from the top slot. That’s a real race folks.
Otherwise, it’s looking like a Nomadland kind of night.
See you in a week when the squad weighs in post Oscar noms!
At the risk of sounding like spamming… I think that both Judas and Borat are going to do way better than expected… and I won’t be shocked to see 3 acting noms for Judas and/or 2 for Borat (but most likely is 1 and 1). Probably 2 and 2, at best. Even a double nom for SBC… remember he’s candidate for Borat as Producer, Writer, Actor and Songwriter, and also as Supporting Actor for Chicago 7.
I wouldn’t be in shock to see Alan Kim nominated. And The Father underperforming spectacularly… maybe just Hopkins and the Screenplay.
With News of the World, it can go either way. All the way up to 9 nominations or so, or to be relagated to some technicals at most…
No “animated feature” chart. I think we all know why…
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/16cf532aeae68fc7b13ec2dd030c113d9eea48b5b5ed0e0d9bbaeb3308355c0b.jpg
Awards Daily Ballot
Deadline Now Extended to 3/12, Friday 10 PM
https://www.awardsdaily.com/2021/03/11/13th-annual-awards-daily-oscar-ballot/
“Fasten your seatbelts it’s going to be a bumpy night !”
Now there’s a movie that deserved its whopping 14 nominations. A timeless classic.
The Father only managing 3 #10s from 12 is ridiculous. 5/12 with Close at #1 isn’t much better. Best Actress being down to 5 for 11/12 voters?
This is why they shouldn’t have extended eligibility into 2021. FORCE the Academy to recognize the first half of the year by reducing their choices. Besides Da 5 Bloods and Tenet, both of which are on the outside looking in, everything here is from October-February, with the emphasis on February.
Um. Tenet is on the outside looking in because it was..well…atrocious. The Academy needs to figure out how to stop being intimidated by Nolan fanboys, he’s not THAT special.
Watch more movies. You don’t know the definition of “atrocious” if you think Tenet was that. That wasn’t my point anyway. The point is awards bodies ignore the first half of the year. Doesn’t have to be Tenet. I wasn’t the biggest fan of First Cow, but that’s another example. Or Swallow. Or a slew of others.
Also, they’ve never been “intimidated” by “Nolan fanboys.” He’s been under-recognized by them if anything. Consider the Reader/Dark Knight fiasco.
Changing from 5 to 8-10 Best pictures arguably hurt the prestige of the award. And it wasn’t a “fiasco”, Dark Knight deserved the snub, it’s last act is dogshit. Everyone was too busy crying over Ledger to treat the film honestly.
I must agree. And Ledger indisputably deserved the Oscar. But I never understood the rapt fascination with The Dark Knight. What exactly was going on in Gotham? What was the main issue or problem? The Mayor, the cops, the press, the gangsters, everybody was frenzied and borderline losing it. But why? What exactly was sliding out of control? If anyone can explain this to me I’d love to hear it. I realize that many people watching the movie were totally enraptured by it. What pulled them through? What were they hanging onto? What were they hoping or expecting to see resolved?
The actress and supp actress categories are ripe for surprises on Monday. Whilst i see no-one is still predicting Amy Adams now, the potential for a surprise is still there. Supp Actress has been a ‘crap shoot’ for weeks – even before the Globes. There are so many varied contenders, making it a potential for shock exclusion (i wouldn’t rule out any of Close, Seyfried, Bakalova, Burstyn, Colman ) being in or out! Frankly the final 5 will make for interesting analysis.
If Close gets in, i still think she wins. But if she is snubbed, it is anybody’s game.
Also, Actor #5th spot is in the flux and all 5 DGA directors most likely won’t make it.
yep that category is also quite fluid. My predix for Director: Zhao, Fincher, Chung, Shaka King and Paul Greengrass. I think Sorkin will get snubbed.
So many people hold prayer circles for Sorkin snub! 🙂
I liked the film a lot, but don’t think in a year that has seen brilliant directorial achievements like Minari, Mank, Sound of Metal, One Night in Miami, News of the World – that Chicago 7 necessarily be included; even if voters think it is one of the best films of the year.
It is an age old debate – can a movie be considered better than its Direction; and conversely can a Directorial achievement surpass the rest of a movie; rendering it less successful? I have split my own personal lists many times, where i considered a film greater than the sum of its parts; others where the Direction was unique and brave, but the film didn’t quite live up to that. I can applaud a movie’s Direction without necessarily thinking it the best of the year.
Of course there are tons of examples where the two coincide.
I yes. that’s why once BP/BD splits were rare while now they are more of a norm.
I tend to pick different things for picture and director, I think. (Perhaps because the kind of movies I love, of the stuff that comes out these days – it was different in the 90’s -, don’t tend to be as flashy/impressive on the directing front. I’m more about screenplay and acting, as I’ve said a few times before. Those and score.) First Man was the only exception over the last 5 years and, in retrospect, right now I would probably rank Never Look Away ahead of it in picture, while still slightly favoring Chazelle.
I have been dazzled by Directors like Lars Von Trier, Francois Ozon, Michel Gondry, Jane Campion, Terence Davies – but not necessarily voted that film. the best of the year, but looking at my split years, it was often the Writer/Directors or the Visionaries that got my vote for Director, but i went for something more conventional for BP.
When i joined the Australian Film Institute in 1988 (now AACTA), I remember thinking that when i voted for the Best Film award (in those days all members could only vote for Best Film; other practitioners decided everything else), the prize would for me, need to go to a picture that ticks as many boxes across the various production and technical strands – not necessarily the most flashy, but the most complete! I think a part of me still votes that way – maybe that is how the Preferential ballot plays out – which film is most liked, and least hated.
Did you join in time for voting during the crazy 1988 AFI year when a New Zealand production (albeit a brilliant and worthy one) pretty much swept and there was no writing award because of strike action?
that was my very first year, yes! And the one and only time i attended the ceremony and couldn’t believe that people at the tables near me – booed the winner!!! Yes the rules changed a lot didn’t they – The Piano was a French/NZ/Australian co pro from memory i think just a few years later. Are you a member too?
Nope, just an interested observer 🙂 though I’ve actually been catching up lately with a whole bunch of Oz titles, some of which have apparently never seen an official digital release; for the sake of keeping them available for others, I’ll refrain from naming names or revealing details…Let’s just say that some were worth watching, and some were not.
The Navigator
Oh, so you’re actually a member of that organization – nice!… The one that picked ProYo! 🙂
“looking at my split years, it was often the Writer/Directors or the Visionaries that got my vote for Director, but i went for something more conventional for BP.”
Hmmm, I wouldn’t know how to describe mine… I have (years for which I already have lists put together, so I don’t have to think about it too much):
2013 – 12 Years a Slave * / Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
* Could be Frozen, instead, really not sure; objectively speaking it feels like it should be 12 Years a Slave, it’s just more impressive.
2016 – Arrival * / Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
* O.J. Made in America at the time, but probably Arrival, in hindsight; very unclear; in directing, Villeneuve 4th or 5th. (I had minor issues with it, whereas with La La Land it was only the writing I found to be less than great.)
2017 – The Big Sick / Matt Reeves (War for the Planet of the Apes) *
* Or maybe Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), but probably the former; Michael Showalter for The Big Sick isn’t that high on the list, although maybe he should be.
2018 – Werk ohne Autor * / Damien Chazelle (First Man)
* a.k.a. Never Look Away (it’s hard for me to decide between this and First Man, which is why this could be the second year not splitting, although both are questionable anyway, given how much I love Frozen – but these days I feel like Never Look Away had even more of an impact and made even more of an impression on me than First Man), which is also top 3 in directing for me, with Lanthimos rounding that out.
2019 – The Farewell * / Sam Mendes (1917)
* Lulu Wang is borderline top 5.
2020 so far – Wolfwalkers / Brian Duffield (Spontaneous) or, of the ones eligible for the Oscars, Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Just off the top of my head, one example of admirable and praiseworthy direction in a film that didn’t necessarily come together for me as an all-round brilliant achievement would be Pedro Costa’s HORSE MONEY.
ooh, i had to look that one up – hadn’t heard of it.
I watched it recently on MUBI.
I’ll also stand up for Horse Money (though I think it comes together very well). I’ve seen of Costa’s films only Horse Money and Vitalina Varela but they are both incredible works that in both form and expression have few comparisons in modern cinema. Both also demand a lot from the viewer, they’re dense and dreamlike works with often very few directly approachable elements. But from what I’ve understood if you want to really get a good understanding of Costa’s work, you should start with his early stuff, either from one of his first two movies, supposedly the more conventional ones, or move through his Fontainhas series in chronological order which is as follows: Ossos, In Vanda’s Room, Colossal Youth, Horse Money and Vitalina Varela.
Will that result in a Argo style “avenge the auteur Sorkin” romp through the rest of the guilds?
Maybe. I guess depends on how strong Minari is, and perhaps Ma Rainey, Mank and Sound of Metal. Nomadland unless it underperforms on Monday would still be the frontrunner. Is Sorkin more divisive a figure than Ben Affleck? In which case, no I don’t think if he is snubbed it will augur better for his movie
There will be enough making good for Carey Mulligan for being snubbed at BAFTA and unrewarded at Globes.
If Nomad hits 6 nominations, I think its sitting in good shape. Parasite had 6 and Zhao is following Bong’s aggressive campaigning strategy.
I say no way Greengrass is in. I also found very convincing the argument I read recently that if News couldn’t get in at PGA it definitely wasn’t getting in at the Oscars. I don’t think it’s a passion pick, either. Not for enough people, anyway. And, if the film can’t get in for picture, Greengrass definitely doesn’t fit the profile of somebody who would get nominated without the BP nod.
we shall see!
Ryan, nice to see I´m not the only one believing in Minari´s winning chances … 😉
me too, me too, me too 🙂
Of course, Dave – we are not alone! :-))
‘I’m so excited, and i just can’t hide it’ (The Pointer Sisters, 1982)
Weren’t The Pointer Sisters fun in Car Wash? Then again, wasn’t Car Wash a total blast?
Indeed, Dominik!
I’ve had Minari right next to Mank for several weeks already.
In my heart they’re the two best movies of the year.
February 13th:
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/1360800798029082624
It´s nice to see Tero commenting – I remember he was a regulary commenter here during the past years. And I see, I shall give Mank a second view!
I don’t see why the British vote won’t get The Father in over one of those stragglers (let’s be honest, the films with majority-black casts could cancel out, though I hope not, though it’s already hurt Da 5 Bloods). Also I’m shocked that most who still have Glenn still have her at #1. She has to get nominated first. Finally 2 actresses in their 70s or older haven’t been nominated together for Supporting Actress since 1964, so it’s interesting that the two who have Burstyn also have both YYJ and Close. Seems unlikely even if they’re all palatable on paper.
I have at this moment, this quintet: Bakalova, Close, Fishback, Foster and Youn. Ask me again in 5 minutes and I will have changed four of those names for Burstyn, Colman, Seyfried and Zengel. Your guess is as good as mine as who I will keep int he “prediction”, lol.
The clues are that both Judas and Borat seem to be peaking in voting time, while Burstyn, Colman seem to be losing steam. I’d say Seyfried and Zengel as well… so Youn is in a Best Picture lock, Foster won the Globe and Close haven’t missed anything too serious (yet she is still to win) and may score the nom thanks to the right wing of the AMPAS who probably love HE.
How is Colman losing steam? She’s been nominated for everything and would’ve been nominated for BAFTA as well since The Father got a best picture nomination.
but she wasn’t. And she was one of the two top contenders from the beginning (maybe the almost year-long frontrunner after Hillbilly Elegy was panned almost unanimously) and so far she’s lost the Globe to Foster (30 years since he last Oscar!) and the Critics Choice to Bakalova, plus, snubbed from BAFTA. At this point I am seriously doubting she’s going to be nominated, and I have also serious doubts on The Father doing beyond Hopkins and Screenplay. Two films are clearly on the rise (Judas and Borat) and a third film is also skyrocketing (The Mauritanian), all of them in the critical voting period. At this point I am only sure of a Best Picture nomination to 3 films: Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Minari. Anything else… I would be also really safe with Mank because of the huge across-the-board appeal and how it appeals to the AMPAS general members. But outside of them, I am not sure of anything and there are 10-12 films that wouldn’t shock me at all, by being snubbed or by being nominated. God, even News of the World is on the verge between being the most nominated film, to completely snubbed, it could go either way!