Best motion picture of the year
- “The Father” David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers
- “Judas and the Black Messiah” Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, Producers
- “Mank” Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, Producers
- “Minari” Christina Oh, Producer
- “Nomadland” Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers
- “Promising Young Woman” Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers
- “Sound of Metal” Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers
- “The Trial of the Chicago 7” Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers
Achievement in directing
- “Another Round” Thomas Vinterberg
- “Mank” David Fincher
- “Minari” Lee Isaac Chung
- “Nomadland” Chloé Zhao
- “Promising Young Woman” Emerald Fennell
Performance by an actor in a leading role
- Riz Ahmed in “Sound of Metal”
- Chadwick Boseman in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
- Anthony Hopkins in “The Father”
- Gary Oldman in “Mank”
- Steven Yeun in “Minari”
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
- Sacha Baron Cohen in “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
- Daniel Kaluuya in “Judas and the Black Messiah”
- Leslie Odom, Jr. in “One Night in Miami…”
- Paul Raci in “Sound of Metal”
- Lakeith Stanfield in “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Performance by an actress in a leading role
- Viola Davis in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
- Andra Day in “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
- Vanessa Kirby in “Pieces of a Woman”
- Frances McDormand in “Nomadland”
- Carey Mulligan in “Promising Young Woman”
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
- Maria Bakalova in “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan”
- Glenn Close in “Hillbilly Elegy”
- Olivia Colman in “The Father”
- Amanda Seyfried in “Mank”
- Yuh-Jung Youn in “Minari”
Adapted screenplay
- “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan” Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
- “The Father” Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
- “Nomadland” Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
- “One Night in Miami…” Screenplay by Kemp Powers
- “The White Tiger” Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani
Original screenplay
- “Judas and the Black Messiah” Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
- “Minari” Written by Lee Isaac Chung
- “Promising Young Woman” Written by Emerald Fennell
- “Sound of Metal” Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
- “The Trial of the Chicago 7” Written by Aaron Sorkin
Best international feature film of the year
- “Another Round” Denmark
- “Better Days” Hong Kong
- “Collective” Romania
- “The Man Who Sold His Skin” Tunisia
- “Quo Vadis, Aida?” Bosnia and Herzegovina
Best animated feature film of the year
- “Onward” Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae
- “Over the Moon” Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou
- “A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon” Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley
- “Soul” Pete Docter and Dana Murray
- “Wolfwalkers” Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants
Best documentary feature
- “Collective” Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
- “Crip Camp” Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
- “The Mole Agent” Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
- “My Octopus Teacher” Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster
- “Time” Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn
Achievement in cinematography
- “Judas and the Black Messiah” Sean Bobbitt
- “Mank” Erik Messerschmidt
- “News of the World” Dariusz Wolski
- “Nomadland” Joshua James Richards
- “The Trial of the Chicago 7” Phedon Papamichael
Achievement in film editing
- “The Father” Yorgos Lamprinos
- “Nomadland” Chloé Zhao
- “Promising Young Woman” Frédéric Thoraval
- “Sound of Metal” Mikkel E. G. Nielsen
- “The Trial of the Chicago 7” Alan Baumgarten
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
- “Da 5 Bloods” Terence Blanchard
- “Mank” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
- “Minari” Emile Mosseri
- “News of the World” James Newton Howard
- “Soul” Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste
Achievement in production design
- “The Father” Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
- “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton
- “Mank” Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
- “News of the World” Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
- “Tenet” Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas
Achievement in costume design
- “Emma” Alexandra Byrne
- “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” Ann Roth
- “Mank” Trish Summerville
- “Mulan” Bina Daigeler
- “Pinocchio” Massimo Cantini Parrini
Achievement in sound
- “Greyhound” Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
- “Mank” Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin
- “News of the World” Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett
- “Soul” Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker
- “Sound of Metal” Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling
- “Emma” Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze
- “Hillbilly Elegy” Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney
- “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson
- “Mank” Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff
- “Pinocchio” Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti
Achievement in visual effects
- “Love and Monsters” Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
- “The Midnight Sky” Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins
- “Mulan” Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram
- “The One and Only Ivan” Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
- “Tenet” Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher
Best documentary short film
- “Colette” Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard
- “A Concerto Is a Conversation” Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
- “Do Not Split” Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook
- “Hunger Ward” Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman
- “A Love Song for Latasha” Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan
Best animated short film
- “Burrow” Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat
- “Genius Loci” Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise
- “If Anything Happens I Love You” Will McCormack and Michael Govier
- “Opera” Erick Oh
- “Yes-People” Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson
Best live action short film
- “Feeling Through” Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski
- “The Letter Room” Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
- “The Present” Farah Nabulsi
- “Two Distant Strangers” Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe
- “White Eye” Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
- “Fight For You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas- “Hear My Voice” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite- “Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga”
Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson- “Io Sì (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)”
Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini- “Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami…”
Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
(I was told it would perhaps help if I re-posted my last few replies, the ones I made in different threads, due to the little glitch last night – I did most of them as replies to the post they were originally intended to be in reply to, but this is more of a general comment anyway, so it seems better to do it here:)
I definitely don’t think it’s over and I still somehow expect Nomadland not to win the PGA (I just have this feeling, I mean, plus it still doesn’t feel like a PGA kind of movie), despite the stats and all that… But I
think it finds a way to prevail at the Oscars, regardless. It’s just done too well. La La Land, without a snub-free critical darling like Moonlight to contend with, with a lot more screenplay strength and no Globes full sweep or 14 nominations backlash…
Let’s take a look at SAG Ensemble winners.
1995- Apollo 13 (BP nom)
1996- The Birdcage (no BP nom)
1997 -The Full Monty (BP nom)
1998- Shakespeare in Love (BP win)
1999- American Beauty (BP win)
2000- Traffic (BP nom)
2001- Gosford Park (BP nom)
2002- Chicago (BP win)
2003- The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (BP win)
2004- Sideways (BP nom)
2005- Crash (BP win)
2006- Little Miss Sunshine (BP nom)
2007- No Country for Old Men (BP win)
2008- Slumdog Millionaire (BP win)
2009- Inglourious Basterds (BP nom)
2010- The King’s Speech (BP win)
2011- The Help (BP nom)
2012- Argo (BP win)
2013- American Hustle (BP nom)
2014- Birdman (BP win)
2015- Spotlight (BP win)
2016- Hidden Figures (BP nom)
2017- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (BP nom)
2018- Black Panther (BP nom)
2019- Parasite (BP win)
The likely winner of the SAG Ensemble is at least nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. (only Birdcage is an outlier)
So we can eliminate Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and One Night in Miami.
And therefore we can make the prediction that Minari or Trial of the Chicago 7 will win SAG Ensemble.
“The Full Monty” WAS nominated for best picture so “Birdcage” is THE ONLY exception.
Yep, you’re right. Edited.
I know Trial has many, many MORE performances — and thus many SAG members voting for people they might know or work with — but I still think Minari is walking away with this.
Minari had solid acting. I’m getting a parasite vibe again.
I am tired of category fraud. It cheapens the results. Since you cannot win in Lead, we will move you to Supporting—knocking out some truly supporting performances. This is an easy fix: under 30 minutes screen time = supporting; 30 minutes and more = Lead.
I think Regina missed because the directors branch is iffy about nomming actors. And she directed a play adaptation,
I think Fennell likely barely got in because her film was uniquely cinematic and better received, overall.
Happy for Lakeith. Obviously actors lovvvved late-breaking Judas. I’m bummed that Delroy Lindo couldn’t get a nom in either Lead or Supporting.
Bradley Cooper and Ben Affleck should be taking her out for drinks tonight.
I don’t think it’s just the actor thing. Obviously there was a general lack of passion for the movie because of the best picture miss and what King did isn’t the kind of thing that gets a lone director nomination in the expanded ballot era. Those movies have an air of “artistry”: either a non-English language acclaimed writer-director making something outside the Hollywood system or an American director doing something that’s extremely serious. Also, in all of these cases the movies had or would have probably had the air of prestige they had increased by support from European festivals: both Foxcatcher and Cold War won directing awards at Cannes and Another Round was supposed to screen there as well, and is from what I’ve understood exactly the kind of movie that wins at least one award at Cannes
I think both contributed. I didn’t consider her in my predictions because of the actor turned director thing – there definely seems to be a pattern there that the directors branch finds it hard to appreciate actor-directors… But I do see your point and agree that general lack of passion contributed too since she didn’t get into dga where the dislike of actor-directors isn’t as strong…
I wasn’t a huge fan of King’s directing work in One Night in Miami… to be honest. I thought the boxing scene lacks the thrill of a boxing scene. However, the framing and the direction of the actors at Miami scenes are well done for a feature-length first-timer.
“the directors branch is iffy about nomming actors” is a relatively new trend, isn’t it? They rewarded Kevin Costner, Mel Gibson, Warren Beatty, Robert Redford for directing (to name just a few)
(I was told it would perhaps help if I re-posted my last few replies, the ones I made in different threads, due to the little glitch last night – I did most of them as replies to the post they were originally intended to be in reply to, but this is more of a general comment anyway, so it seems better to do it here:)
I definitely don’t think it’s over and I still somehow expect Nomadland not to win the PGA (I just have this feeling, I mean, plus it still doesn’t feel like a PGA kind of movie), despite the stats and all that… But I
think it finds a way to prevail at the Oscars, regardless. It’s just done too well. La La Land, without a snub-free critical darling like Moonlight to contend with, with a lot more screenplay strength and no Globes full sweep or 14 nominations backlash…
So after the director nomination I finally caught up on Another Round and was kinda shocked by how… Bad? It is… Mads Mikkelsen is often great but for what is really an ensemble film I couldn’t name a single personality trait of any of the other characters. I also spent the whole time waiting for something unexpected or interesting to happen but instead it just kept going the most dull and obvious place at every moment and it’s central thesis is maybe enough to fill a short film but I felt like I got exactly what it wanted to say after about half an hour and then I just had to sit there waiting for it to get there.
Maybe if I was a straight, boring, old man I’d appreciate it more and think of it as daring but, I dunno, I just found it ridiculously bland. Also people say it’s a comedy? Maybe I have lost my sense of humour but it felt like it was taking itself way too seriously, it actually could’ve worked better with a lighter tone. I would be very happy for someone to explain to me what I missed because I’m just so confused why this is so highly praised! It’s not even very good looking!
I agree. I thought it was very much overrated and in parts self indulgent, the characters one-dimensional and not half as profound as it seems to think it is. Not my favourite Vinterberg. The best thing about it is Mads Mikkelsen, but even his showcase of an end scene felt forced and calculated. I do give it credit for avoiding some overblown sentimental pitfalls where it could have easily pushed it way too far down the melodrama path, but that’s like saying I praise the film for not being worse than it is.
Yep. I heard such great things and expected to love it. It’s … fine. Meh. And Mads is very good with a fantastic final scene. But that was honestly it, for me.
I agree with you. I found it to be a waste of time.
This seems to be a theme among certain movies. Everyone is raving about it, then it turns out to be meh.
I swear Minari and The Father better be as good as everyone says.
”Minari” scores 98% at Rotten Tomatoes with an audience score of 92.
”The Father” scores 99% at Rotten Tomatoes with an audience score of 89.
(And ”Nomadland” scores 94% at Rotten Tomatoes with an audience score of 80.)
Another Round is actually my favorite film of the year and for many reasons. It’s the perfect anti-2021 movie. While all the other movies of this season bask in their wokeness, AR is not politically correct. The story revolves around white, male, priveleged characters. It’s about alcoholism! And yet it works. Vinterberg made a delicious cocktail out of it.
His direction was masterful. I thought the characters were fleshed out well and had very distinctive Danish traits.
Halfway through the movie, I was dying for a drink. The way Sideways made me salivate for red wine.
By the third act, I was enraptured. It reminded me of why I love cinema in the first place. It dared to explore alcoholism and midlife crisis in a fresh, lighthearted and un-preachy manner.
I loved the choices that Vinterberg made because this film could have easily fallen into cliches. Masterful direction and totally deserving of the nom.
It’s so hard to find movies about white men. Such a huge void in our culture.
You definitely missed my point. I wasn’t talking about the lack of movies about white men. The current atmosphere in Hollywood has a general bias against movies about white men. But despite that, Vinterberg made an outstanding, fresh movie with white men front and center.
AR is a European film first and foremost. Tbh, outside of the US, the rest of the world isn’t as obsessed/triggered about color.
The Academy has increased its voting body over the last few years. There are more members who just vote based on merit and do not have to sift movies through a race/ethnicity/feminist/political lens.
No it does not. Movies about white men still get made, still get funded, and still get promoted. White men still make movies, and those movies still get funded and promoted. A movie about a white man and his white friends that was written and directed by white men just got ten Oscar nominations, more than any other movie.
No one is winning this argument if your key takeaway from my comment is “white” and”men”. Have fun!
It’s surely the most overrated movie of the year. I hope it loses Oscar to “Quo vadis, Aida?” as it should.
Mank snubbed in editing and screenplay
Ma Rainey & ONIM snubbed in picture
Vinterberg in director
Stansfield in supporting
Glad to see some genuine surprises in big categories this year
In light of the luncheon being cancelled, I’d like to submit this in place of the yearly nominees group photo and pretend it’s them..
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2daf3ed5761b93dcc3ef72bf5b8f76ffa97031288bc9e1bad3cf4f614b8c5e6f.jpg
LOL
Yikes, Chase!
We’re right back where we started.
First Academy Awards Ceremony
Hollywood Roosevelt Hotel
May16, 1929
(“The first Academy Awards in 1929 had just 270 guests and tickets cost $5 each — about $76 today.”) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6b4fc21c1c7120bf4969cf360735a87e7826891b15933cd7e5898245f8111624.jpg
Academy president David Rubin this morning confirmed Deadline. com exclusive; nominees luncheon, Governors’ Ball and all other in-person events ‘associated with Oscar season’ canceled because COVID. What, Dave, the Santa Monica airport hangar was booked on Oscar night so a train station hub became plan B??
Why are you against the train station? If it provides opportunity to host an in-person event in a safe way, I think they should always take it.
FeelingBlue isn’t really against the train station.
Deep down he’s happy about it. Because now he’s got a brand new reason to gripe.
Now he gets to gripe because people aren’t willing to put their lives at risk so he can gripe about a TV show that he would gripe about no matter where it takes place.
Looking forward to how the ceremony is presented. I have faith that it will be great. I don’t have faith that people will tune in to see how it works.
Considering there’s a major revolt against awards shows (both Globes and Grammys ratings plunged 60% vs. last year), this contagion is more than likely to strike an Oscar show with little general public interest.
I think Judas and the Black Messiah could be the spoiler on Oscar night. It almost feels like the obvious film that would win in such an important year for BLM movement.
Also, LaKeith Stanfield and Steven Yeun should switch categories.
They have a path, but I think it would require pulling a large upset in original screenplay to make it happen
As big a fan as I am of Judas, I don’t see that happening.
There is a path if it wins PGA and WGA and then Best picture at the oscars. As it is almost a lock for best supporting actor, that would be 3 awards if it got BP, which is what winners are getting as of late. I think after nominations the only ones with a path to win are Nomadland, Trial, PYW, Minari and Judas and the Black Messiah.
best original screenplay at the oscars *
and now PGA and WGA goes to Borat and… 😉
just kidding, but wouldn’t it be like SO 2020?
One of Chicago 7’s subplots really involves the BLM appeal, so I’d say that whoever wants to throw a bone there, will do with Chicago, rather than with Judas. Specially since I don’t see Judas winning anything but MAYBE Kaluuya’s IF he doesn’t split votes with Stanfield. The temptation to vote there for Baron Cohen is too strong… and on Original, Minari is the frontrunner unless they want to make up Sorkin for his “snub” at directing. Yes, you read right, Minari might be the frontrunner in Original, despite Sorkin’s almost swept… Minari is exactly the kind of film that the AMPAS would completely fall for.
Minari: Picture, Original, Score (snubbing Soul)
Nomadland: Director, Adapted, Cinematography
Chicago 7: Supporting Actor, Film Editing
Promising Young Woman: Actress
Mank: Production Design
Sound of Metal: Sound
The Father: —-
Judas and the Black Messiah: —-
If they really want to share the wealth and reward every BP nominee… I am afraid then Colman upsets Bakalova and could go something like this…
Minari losing Original to Sorkin and SBC losing Supporting Actor to Kaluuya.
I think there’s no stopping Kaluuya in SA. I also don’t see Minari winning Original Screenplay. It will be Emerald or Sorkin.
they’re giving PYW Actress and Chicago Editing and probably Supporting Actor. They are free to snub Sorkin – already an Oscar winner – to give Chung an Oscar.
I can’t see Minari winning Picture without a Script win and/or an Acting win. The Picture/Music combo puts things into sub-Spotlight territory.
that’s why I think Sorkin is going to lose and Chicago 7’s reward will be Sacha Baron Cohen and probably Film Editing as well.
Maybe ”Minari” wins Picture and Supporting Actress. (I love Emile Mosseri’s score to ”Minari” and it’d be a worthy winner, but so far ”Soul” has swept this category.)
And the Oscar voters had the prerogative to make such a switch:
They could’ve put Stanfield in Leading and Yeun in Supporting. But they didn’t.
Streaming services didn’t perform as well as expected. 2 Best Picture noms for Netflix and 1 for Amazon. Whilst streaming was a lifeline for movies and for movielovers in 2020/202,.it is great that films that were screened in theatres and distributed through them, rather than through streaming platforms, dominated the BP category.
There will be a lot of speculation for the underperformance. I think Netflix’s options 1 and 2 were clear from day 1. 3 and 4 were questionable… both Black-centric films, shared the campaigning attention from Netflix, the Boseman narrative, and ultimately cancelled each other. One Night in Miami also helped to cancel the two and itself, as did to a much smaller extent Soul. The industry has a hard time to nominate more than 2 Black-centric films when there is a portfolio of 4+ possibilities. There usually is vote splitting.
Another aspect to be mentioned is that there are usually one or two very very late breakers in the race. Netflix and Amazon released their films quite early compared to others… and in the end The Father and Judas got those slots.
I don’t think it’s a huge coincidence that the movies that seem to have the most juice weren’t streamers and actually had small theatrical runs. The pandemic didn’t make anti-Netflix sentiment from the last few years vanish.
I think for Hollywood it is a good sign, but i say that as a non American, and someone who prefers mostly to consume my movies via dvd or streaming, so i am a bit of a cinematic heretic but want the industry to survive obviously and for things to recover.
I do worry about this time next year – what will we be looking at? What breadth and depth will be on offer considering lockdowns started in March last year? Sure some big titles were postponed, but they may not be Oscar fare anyway. I do think it will bring international cinema even more into the awards’ conversation as the critics and the guilds scramble to cobble together an awards competition.
International cinema is in a bit of an ascendency and that’s nothing but a good thing. I think the rise of the Three Amigos pushed a lot of non-American filmmakers to say “why the hell not me”, and now you have incredible Asian talent. And White Tiger is a sign that Indian filmmakers may be tiring of the Bollywood template, ALSO a good thing. And Israeli talent is on the upswing as well.
Disney has to be doing handsprings at the rise of Chloe Zhao because they gave her Eternals and its already in the bag. If she pulls off a big budget film without sacrificing her ethics, she’s going to be an all timer.
International cinema is in a bit of an ascendency and that’s nothing but a good thing. I think the rise of the Three Amigos pushed a lot of non-American filmmakers to say “why the hell not me”, and now you have incredible Asian talent. And White Tiger is a sign that Indian filmmakers may be tiring of the Bollywood template, ALSO a good thing. And Israeli talent is on the upswing as well.
Disney has to be doing handsprings at the rise of Chloe Zhao because they gave her Eternals and its already in the bag. If she pulls off a big budget film without sacrificing her ethics, she’s going to be an all timer.
I’m worried that Disney is gonna do something stupid with Chloe Zhao to appease the Chinese market. The controversy around her there is getting real nasty, and Disney is known for going to extreme measures in their marketing to sell their movies overseas, especially in China. I hope it doesn’t happen, but I really don’t trusy them, they are really money hungry.
Yeah there is that. Disney might be too invested in Zhao especially if she pulls the triple or god forbid the quadruple anyway. This isn’t the same as messing up John Boyega for a few extra bucks.
Don’t really agree with that. That’s a very American-centric assertion. We always had amazing international talent. The difference is that now American studios are pretty much dependent on International revenues – that’s why you better look out more closely to international talent to bring a more international perspective to the table. And thanks to Cheryl Boone Isaacs, with a significantly more diversified membership in terms of geographic origin, international-focused films have been able to succeed more in the Oscars.
In the 60’s and 70’s there was usually a non-English language director nomination every other year (granted, for some utter all time classics like Z and Amarcord), it’s nice to see that picking up again.
Not to nitpick but The White Tiger was directed by a guy from North Carolina
Wonderful to see two women nominated for Best Director in one year.
shouldn’t quality of the film be the only criterium?
it is.
it was an entirely empiric observation. If that bothers you, so be it.
My top 2 films among the top 8.
sadly it seems that lots of people and most of media were overwhelmed by another narrative..
If more women had historically been recognized BEFORE now, then people wouldn’t bring it up. But of the 461 directors nominated since 1927, SEVEN have been women.
Hollywood studios have simply never hired women for the role of director in the first place and those that have made them had lesser opportunities and access. So yeah, it is about the ‘quality of the film’ because — unless you think women just make bad directors naturally — Hollywood has historically excluded certain parties from the opportunities to make their films, meaning more movies by mediocre men.
Chloe Zhao is one of the most acclaimed talents to come around probably since Tarantino. The Rider got her a Marvel MCU gig for crying out loud. She pulled off four individual nominations on her talent and nothing but. That’s why the hubbub.
What narrative? If they nominated three you might have had a point (not in my eyes, but at least you would be on more solid ground). But nominating the same two that DGA, which leans more conservative with its picks, picked is not really overdoing it. Nomadland is a frontrunner in picture, the movie is about white people, rural america white people at that. Where is this narrative you are talking about in her nomination?
Fennell directed a movie that a lot of people love and that is admired by the industry. If this narrative was so pervasive, wouldn’t they have chosen to nominate Regina King, a woman of color making a film about black opression and the civil rights movement?
Look at the best picture lineup and how they snubbed the two play adaptations for far more cinematic films. They didn’t care they were snubbing black stories, they went for what they liked. So I ask again, where is this narrative you are talking about?
Well, it’s a great thing that the two films those dastardly women made were among the best of the year.
You know, for all whining and bleating from the right wing about all things “woke”, Chloe Zhao made one of the most sympathetic films about impoverished rural white Americans in YEARS. But some of y’all are too busy whining about her ethnicity and lady parts to notice this.
I don’t mind that, but in a future year, what happens if no female director makes a top five film. The headlines will be DOMINATED by that as they do every year
The headlines were already dominated by that in 2019. Yes, there will always be a push for inclusion from now on, if you don’t like it, buckle up because there is no stopping it. Just adapt to the new situation, hopefully it won’t be only narrative driven in the future and it will be merit based like it was this year.
Also, is not as if male filmmakers haven’t gotten BD noms based solely on narrative before. Maybe you also spoke out against it back then, but hey, it happened, even wins have happened on narrative only. That’s just how the oscars are, if a woman gets only based on narrative in the future, the only new thing would be the gender of the person, but not the situation.
In the end it isn’t that important, unless you really think they have always until just now done everything merit based. Noms like Paul Haggis for Crash and wins like Tom Hooper over David Fincher would beg to differ tho.
I don’t like false narratives like the idea that one of the most liberal institutions in the world is trying to push black people out. I also don’t like it when these narratives get angry and destructive.
That’s just me
https://orrinkonheim.medium.com/is-an-anti-black-hollywood-a-myth-f631d960b95e
What specifically are you referring to in the last two paragraphs? What was there to speak out against with Paul Haggis or Tom Hooper?
not if there isn’t a movie that happened to be directed by a woman that is in the Top 15 titles for that season. Call me naive, but if the gigs are there, and the movies shine, their narratives will float into the middle of the race; if they don’t; sure there will be protests, but being able to prosecute a case of why the films that ARE nominated is just as important as the reasons as to why ones ARE NOT!
Nobody is whining about her ethnicity and lady parts. I like women and Asians. I just don’t like Nomadland, it’s an overrated hyped borefest. Is it so hard to understand?
And there are many better films about rural white Americans (Nebraska, Gilbert Grape, Brokeback Mountain, No Country for Old Men..)
The only surprise for me in this announcement today was Lakeith Stanfield, as i suspect it was for most – as he ended up in a category that supposedly he was not campaigning in. I don’t think this will derail Daniel Kaluuya, as it reinforces the love for that movie; and also could weaken Chicago 7 in other ways as the two movies go head to head in 4 categories.
Another Round’s Director showing up is great for international cinema; shame Mads did not appear in BA. I was disapppointed that Tahar Rahim missed, but to see Riz Ahmed and Paul Raci nominated and Sound of Metal (one of my Top 3 this season) was, pardon the pun, music to my ears.
News of the World did well, but the delightful Helena Zengel missing was unfortunate.
Really thrilled that the luminous Vanessa Kirby is an Academy Award nominee!
For all the naysayers that AMPAS would not nominate a ‘novelty’ performance in Maria Bakalova – ha-de-ha For a first time film actor, Maria gave a truly transformative turn, and was funny, heartbreaking, and made Sacha Baron Cohen a better actor himself – having someone else to act off. I am thrilled she was recognised today.
News missed supporting actress, actor, screenplay, picture & director.
You might need to redefine doing well.
Yes thanks Andrew, i don’t need to reframe my own sentiments. News of the World is a four time Oscar nominated movie.
I liked it and thought Zengel at least deserved to be in there. But it underperformed.
Zengel is good. For that level of category fraud to be accepted, one needs to be more of an established name, though. That’s why child performances, who are in general category frauds, have a hard time to break into the Oscars.
On another note, caught a preview of The Father. It’s brilliant so glad it scored big time here, shame Zeller missed.
Considering so many theatre released movies made the BP cut, i am surprised News of the World did not, but it is a great work and was rewarded in 4 prestigious categories – Cinematography, Score, Production Design and Sound. I wanted Paul Greengrass to be the one to elbow Sorkin, but it is great that Vinterberg was the one that did.
For sure, two actors in the same category will cancel each other out, but I’m not rooting or Paul Racci either. His performance was pretty unnoticeable. Maybe Leslie Odom or Sacha Baron Cohen then?
I don’t think they will cancel each other out.
I agree with just about all. I was not high on Bakalova or her potential for a nom. but other than that, I agree with your thoughts. Well said!
thank you John 🙂
The heading and subheading of this post is really compelling. That Mank leads the field, but that 6 films scored 6 nominations apiece. When others have decried this year that NO movie will get into double figures – what has transpired is a much more even playing field, not just for nominations but for how that centres the Best Picture race among several titles. Mank won ‘t win BP, but Nomadland now has a bunch of contenders nipping at its heels. Minari and Judas primarily, but also Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman even though it is not in the group of 6 noms.
And if it is correct that actors dominate the Oscars and that they love actory movies – The Father, Minari, Judas, Sound of Metal and Mank scored two acting nods each. whilst i think that Nomadland is still the one to beat for BP, this pretty concentrated mix among a handful of not insubstanitally nominated films will make that preferential ballot a doozy. How those distributions and redistributions play out will be fascinating. It’s not over yet….
Quite a contrast: 4 out of the 5 movies up for SAG Ensemble are largely actors of color.
At the Oscars, 6 of the 8 movies up for Best Pic are largely Caucasian casts. At BAFTA, 5 out of 5.
But Ensemble never equaled Picture. So nothing unusual about this discrepancy.
True. But there’s often a better correlation between SAG Ensemble and Best Picture. Last year, 4 of the 5 SAG Ensemble nominees went on to Best Picture noms. Ditto for 2019. etc. This year, only 2 of the 5 SAG Ensembles are in Best Picture nominees. You have to go back to 2016 to find when only 2 of the 5 SAG Ensembles are up for Best Pic.
Weird year with not much to offer so mediocrities found their way into Ensemble.
Glenn Close should win the razzie award and “Mank” should win any award for being so boring, good 4 insomnia
The stat that all (four, now) Oscar BP nominees not among the PGA or BFCA’s top 10’s of the year in the 5-10 era (the 8-9 era is probably a more appropriate name for it) have had at least 4 BAFTA nominations (Amour, Philomena and Phantom Thread all had 4, The Father has 6) remains on 100%. 3/4 also had at least one LAFCA win! (Philomena is the only one that didn’t.)
Carol remains the only BAFTA+GG Best Picture nominee to miss at the Oscars in the whole expanded ballot era (out of 49 movies that got both of those over the last 12 years). Still no movies that have had both BAFTA Best Film and Golden Globe Best Screenplay nominations have missed for BP at the Oscars. (The Father was, of course, the testing one this year.)
Ma Rainey and One Night gets snubbed, even though both are up for PGA. Instead, The Father gets in. This will probably be one of the lowest rated Oscars because of the pandemic.
”Ma Rainey” and ”One Night” not only were up for PGA, they were also up for Critics’ Choice and the AFI. On the other hand, ”The Father” didn’t make any of those 3 lists, Go figure!
But GG+BAFTA is a super-strong combo as well. Only 1 movie has missed with that combo out of 49 in the preferential era.
Given the new nominating system, how valid are BAFTA stats this year?
Most categories had the old system in place.
A few observations. Should Hopkins win, it will be 29 years since he collected the prize for Silence of the Lambs, making it the longest gap between Best Actor wins.
Carey Mulligan picked up her first Best Actress nomination for 11 years. She is the current favourite and should she win, it’ll be the first time in thirty years that a British actor or actress has won an Oscar without also being nominated for a BAFTA (the last time was Jeremy Irons in Reversal of Fortune in 1991).
Daniel Kaluuya already has the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards. Should he win, he will be the first black British actor to win an Academy Awards.
Wow, so it’s happened before! (The Mulligan/Irons thing.) Amazing…
Mulligan wouldn’t been nominated if everyone could’ve voted. This year doesn’t really count.
Hopkins, Kaluuya, Muligan, and Close would be my personal winners among the nominees without even slight doubt.
If I would have to make my bets today, I guess that’s how it would go.
Picture – “Nomadland”
Directing – Chloé Zhao
Actor in a leading role – Chadwick Boseman
Actor in a supporting role – Daniel Kaluuya
Actress in a leading role – Andra Day or Carey Mulligan
Actress in a supporting role – Yuh-Jung Youn
Adapted screenplay – “Nomadland”
Original screenplay – “Minari”
International film – “Another Round”
Animated film – “Soul”
Cinematography – “Nomadland”
Editing – “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (but this one can go either way)
Original score – “Soul”
Production design – “Mank”
Costume design “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Sound – “Sound of Metal”
Makeup and hairstyling – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Visual effects – “Tenet”
Nomadland – 4
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – 3 (don’t know if that’s possible without BP)
Minari – 2
Soul – 2
I agree with all. Though, I see a real toss-up with Ma Rainey and Emma. for Costume.
fun stats
1. McDormand I believe is only the second woman to land a Producing/Best Picture nomination for a film she starred in (Margot Robbie being the first)
2. First Korean actors ever nominated.
3. Viola Davis is only the second black actress to be nominated for an Oscar AFTER previously winning one (Octavia Spencer is the only other one with two nominations after her victory). Davis passes Spencer as the most nominated black actress in history (four)
4. A non-English language film lands in Best Director for the third straight year. The last time that even happened more than one year in a row was 2002-2003 (Talk to Her and City of God)
Isn’t McDormand the first? Since I, Tonya wasn’t nominated.
It wasn’t? Oh, then McDormand would be the first.
Fun season, I’m a bit bummed about Ma Rainey – particularly because it and One night in Miami almost certainly would be in if there were 10 nominees (looking forward to it being more sensible again next year). But I am stoked that the 2 films I loved most this year (Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal) both hitting everywhere they could reasonably be expected to hit (appart from maybe Marder in director and PYW in costumes but both really were long shots). Because I know people will start suggesting it, I don’t think this has any impact on Chadwick – he is still winning.
That NYFCC stat has finally broken without First Cow getting anything alive the line (which was expected but still).
As far as what is ahead – I really don’t think Nomadland or Trial were really hurt by anything here. There are 2 precedents for films like Trial in the past 10 years missing directing and still winning so it could still happen but I think this is going to be Nomadland cruising to a victory unless Minari ends up being the dark horse
I don’t get what happened with Miami. King’s a former Oscar winner, campaigned hard for the film, and even did a fairly nimble SNL hosting gig to bolster that. Director was going to be tough, but missing Picture is hard to understand.
Team Ma Rainey erroneously felt Boseman was pulling everyone else over the line.
Yeah I don’t understand it at all except for the fact that the nomination system rewards passion and these were both films that the majority of people ranked as like 8/10 so they just didn’t have passion… Ma Rainey was in my top 5 and I know there are a few others around here like that (Sammy for example) but for both of those movies I feel like most people respect them more than love them!
I think directors don’t love to nom actors, and she directed a stage adaptation. Emerald’s film was more popular and was a uniquely cinematic movie.
Damn – they come up with these surprises every year yet they couldn’t throw a bone to NYFCC and First Cow?! 🙂
“There are 2 precedents for films like Trial in the past 10 years missing directing and still winning”
Both won the BP Globe, though. (So did the third exception in the GG era – Driving Miss Daisy.) Trial hasn’t. If it also fails to win PGA…
I always kind of thought that they would take out two stats with one nomination in terms of First Cow: in recent years (I don’t remember exact stats about this) there is usually always at least one movie that gets only a screenplay nomination. By all logic First Cow would have been the one to do that, and eventually The White Tiger getting that spot seems very odd to me.
I didn’t even knew the existence of that film
I kind of try to keep an eye on Ramin Bahrani because Ebert used to champion him so passionately but still it took me the notion that I had to watch it for Indie Spirit voting (because Adarsh Gourav was nominated there for best actor) to actually pay attention to the movie
Yeah I get that so I really think it needs SAG and PGA to win picture… I feel like it is unlikely and I do see the possibility of Minari being the preferential ballot film instead but I don’t think we can count trial winning out just yet!
Once again Best Director is the most interesting category. The recent nominees remind me of the branch’s interesting choices from the 70s.
Yeah vinterberg getting in and Sorkin out of directing field was such a surprise
Just soooooo damn happy that Sound of Metal had a good showing here. Would’ve loved a Marder nomination in directing but overall just thrilled with what it got.
I’ll focus on what I’m most happy about:
Nomadland (which I love) showed up where expected, though would’ve loved a surprise Strathairn nom.
The acting noms for Minari. While I was mixed on some of the film, the performances were flawless and I hope Youn wins it all, and I think she might. The one bummer of the season for me was how much Han Ye-ri was overlooked. Minari in Score (my favorite category every year) is also wonderful.
Hillbilly Elegy did have great makeup and hair, and despite the feedback on the film overall, I actually am in the camp of Close giving a great performance.
The directing noms, overall.
I haven’t seen so many others, but hoping to like Sound of Metal, The Father, Judas, etc…
Sad that Never Rarely Sometimes Always and First Cow got 0 nominations.
I haven’t seen First Cow yet but am I the only one who thought Never Rarely Sometimes Always was overhyped?
You can’t deny the star turns of Sidney Flanagan and Talia Ryder though. Reminded me of the chemistry between Thora Birch and Scarlett Johansson in Ghost World.
Ghost World was so much more interesting, though… 🙂 It’s one of my favorites. But I agree Flanigan and Ryder were both excellent.
Never Rarely Sometimes Always was my favorite movie of 2020 but it’s naturalistic, small-film art-house approach — paired with difficult subject matter — was probably too far outside the mainstream Oscar voters’ interest.
The whole time I kept being reminded of 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days and how I was never bored or ready for it to be over
NRSA deals with such a sensitive topic that requires a very hands-off approach in its telling. One heavy-handed move and the whole thing might collapse.
Such feather light directing-writing skill is easily overlooked by viewers (and awards givers), but it is very impressive.
Also, I think how taken you are or not with the movie reflects on your attitude towards abortion and a woman’s plight.
No, so did I. It was alright, the performances were very good and it was well-made, but nothing amazing.
First Cow is also a bit overrated, but it’s more impressive in a lot of ways. (Than NRSA.)
So true. Both deserved to be ranked among the best films of the year. First Cow should have been nominated for that Cinematography alone.
Neither struck any kind of chord with me, so I’m fine with it; even tough they received reviews that would warrant accolades.
I don’t get why people were doubting Gary Oldman getting in. That role is classic Oscar bait. But anyways I’m happy he’s in! One of the greatest actors ever!
My main things I’m happy about today are Emerald Fennell in Director and Maria Bakalova in Supporting Actress! However, Chloe Zhao will rightfully win. I think she and Chadwick Boseman are the two that I’m 100% certain about winning at this point.
Soul’s 2 wins are essentially 100% as well.
Oh yes, those too! And Another Round is a lock for International Feature Film.
When did Pinocchio come out in theaters?
In the U.S., it was playing in late December/over Christmas.
Yes, if Viola Davis or Andre Day win, that will make the second woman of color winning best actress. The first was Halle berry
The Jack Fincher snub is a huge bummer, but it’s good that they mixed it up in the tech categories, unlike last year.
This was my NGNG actually, Mank out and Sound of Metal in for screenplay.
(just re-checked: I predicted this, but not in the NGNG post – no glory for me, sigh!)
“Mank leads with 10 nominations”
Look at all those awards that Mank won’t win. 🙂
Production Design is its only real chance to win. But it may very well go 10-0, The Irishman redux.
Viola Davis or Andra Day will win Best Actress.
If one of them do, she’ll be the 2nd black woman to win that category in Oscars’ 93-year history.
they split and Mulligan wins.
Carey Mulligan baby! If she wins SAG, she’s winning the Oscar.
I think she’s got SAG wrapped up
This category has had enough depictions of drugged up or mentally unstable entertainment icons (Judy Garland, Edith Piaf, June Carter Cash, Virginia Wolff).
After these nominations, the only acting winner that you can truly bet on winning is Boseman.
Until SAG, it’s hard to tell where we are with Lead Actress. I think everyone expected a Carey sweep from start to finish—obviously that didn’t happen…so not sure where we are headed. Carey still stands a chance. But Day and Kirby may have some stronger than realized support. Obviously Kirby has more of the British support than Carey. I just don’t know.
Supporting actor, I already mentioned this, but I have doubts now about a Daniel sweep. Had Lakeith been nominated alongside him this whole time and Daniel still won, I wouldn’t have doubts about vote splitting (think Sam Rockwell and Woody or Melissa Leo and Amy). BUT because everyone has been championing Lakeith lately for a nomination and he gets one out of nowhere alongside his front runner costar it makes me feel like there could be some definite vote splitting. Daniel hasn’t had to compete against Lakeith. So I feel like Daniel isn’t for sure now. Which if not, then who? I don’t think SBC would—I don’t think he has passion behind him. I would think Paul could come in.
Supporting actress has been such a mess from the get go. Not sure where it’s going. Could Close pull it off with the bad razzie press? Could a critics darling like Youn? Could the original front runner have a shocking comeback for the most nominated film this year, which could be a place where they give it a win to Seyfried? Would they let Coleman beat Close twice? Or will Bakalova who has hit most awards trackers?
It feels fun to be headed towards Oscars night with having so many uncertain predictions 🙂
Re: supporting actress: I think I may predict Youn, but Bakalova is pretty close…
I think this is set up well for Youn, even if it’s her first win of the season. Just because the category is so divided and the film is perhaps the most loved of the nominees. (Not to mention, she’s stellar 🙂 ).
I think it could go so many directions, but reminds me of the Marcia Gay Harden year. Close could win because she hasn’t. Or Colman, since The Father was also loved. But, I’d say my current bets would be (and, again, they’re all possibilities):
1. Youn
2. Close
3. Colman
4. Bakalova
5. Seyfried
I basically agree with everything, but I´m sceptical if that Razzie nomination might hurt Close´s chances to win. And Bakalova, it´s a performance that could gain a lot of support. Enough? I don´t know, but this is certainly a thrilling category!
I´d rank them as follows in terms of winning prospects:
1. Youn
2. Bakalova
3. Colman
4. Close
5. Seyfried
And even he’s now not in a BP-nominated movie, so… Who knows?!
“Obviously Kirby has more of the British support than Carey.”
The jury’s, sure… But that’s around 10 people. 🙂 Totally irrelevant.
I guess I’m confused at how they chose the nominees. I thought I read from somewhere that the voting body chose three nominees and then the jury chose their three….
(Ignore this if you already saw my reply in the other thread – this is just the same reply, pasted here:)
“I guess I’m confused at how they chose the nominees. I thought I read
from somewhere that the voting body chose three nominees and then the
jury chose their three….”
Yeah, I actually had the same impression, and Ryan said something similar at
one point. But it’s not in the rules, at least, it seems. Ferdinand read them. (He also can’t find mention of this three-and-three thing anywhere meaningful.) So we’re not sure whether they did it like that or it was all jury (which included a number of BAFTA members as well, of course). I’d love to have this be clarified somehow, needless to say!
What we have here is an interesting case of the Mandala Effect 🙂
Mandela Effect – ha! Hadn’t heard of that one before. 🙂 Yeah, could be…
It really will stink if Close ends up finally winning for her worst nominated performance but that’s how the Academy rolls.
I had hoped King would get for Best Director and amazed at the love for Mank but overall, not too bad considering how crazy this year has been.
Just happy we were spared Sorkin for Director.
I agree. The directors did the right thing
I was disappointed Sue Kim’s ”The Speed Cubers” missed the Oscar cut for shorts. See it on Netflix!
I’m still wondering who does the Academy voters consider to be the lead character in Judas… The FBI agent played by Jesse Plemons? This is not a Robert Altman type of movie where no lead actor can be discerned. Judas… has two main characters, and you could stretch reality a bit and say that one of them is the lead and the other one is supporting, but both supporting? WTF is the logic behind that, besides creating the opportunity to nominate another black actor who may not fit in the main category? That’s not fair for other supporting performances that could have taken that spot.
I don’t consider that weird. Remember The Departed? Leo didn’t get nominated due to some category confusion, but he was nominated for the SAG in supporting (and in lead at the BAFTAs and Globes). Damon’s character sure as hell wasn’t more important, so had he been nominated it would have been in supporting too. And that’s cool. Not every film needs to have a lead performance.
Leonardo DiCaprio had two movies in 2006: ”Blood Diamond” and ”The Departed.” Frankly, I thought he was the lead in both movies, but they were trying to jockey things, so Leo would get double nominations: Leading for ”Blood Diamond” and Supporting for ”Departed.” And the SAG Awards agreed and nominated him that way. Oddly, the Golden Globes gave him TWO nominations in the same category: Actor in a Drama. Oscar voters chose NOT to nominate Leo for Supporting, and went for Mark Wahlberg instead.
Oscars have a rule against nominating an actor twice in the same category. It’s a bad rule that encourages category fraud.
Some ensemble movie doesn’t have a lead. Who would be lead in Trial 7?
True. But ”Judas” isn’t an ensemble movie. Kaluuya and Stanfield are clear co-leads.
Nowadays when an Oscar baity movie has two co-leads, one is positioned for Leading and the other Supporting. Like ”Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” But this is the first time I’m seeing BOTH co-leads in Supporting. That’s so unfair for truly supporting actors.
”Amadeus” (1984) seems to be one of the last times you had TWO guys from the same movie up for Best Actor. I could understand if F. Murray Abraham were lead and Tom Hulce supporting. But I don’t like the category fraud of making both co-leads Supporting.
I agree. I wasn’t trying to say that Judas was an ensemble movie. It’s just that not every movie has to have a clear lead.
And I don’t disagree that Kaluuya and Lakeith are both leads, but gone are the days when two people of the same gender in the same movie are positioned as leads when it comes to awards consideration. These days if the Annie Hall character was male as the Alvy Singer character, “Diane Keaton” would be nominated in the supporting category. It’s awards greed, obviously. These days both Shirley MacLane and Debra Winger (Terms) wouldn’t be nominated as leads.
But to be fair to “Judas”, wasn’t LaKeith nomination a result of the members deciding to put him there, as opposed to the studio pushing him to be supporting? Wasn’t he campaigned as lead? So we can’t accuse the production being “fraudulent”.
Not sure if it’s true, but I read a comment saying that if an actor gets more votes in one category than another, he gets nominated for that role. So in Lakeith’s case he would’ve gotten say 51 votes in sup and 49 in actor. So that’s way he was put in supporting. And the same could’ve happened to Kaluuya where he might have gotten voted in actor and sup actor
I was with you until you made it a race thing. WTF? Plenty of white actors have been nominated in supporting through category fraud over the years.
As I wrote before, the no lead character logic would be valid in something like Altman’s Nashville, Shortcuts or even Gosford Park, but I don’t see Judas… being like that sort of movie. It has the same logic as if Dustin Hoffman and John Woight would have been nominated for supporting in Midnight Cowboy because there was a better chance to get nominations for both of them in that category and not the main one, where they both belonged. .
Here’s my guess: a lot of voters wanted to consider them as equals, and Kaluuya was firmly in supporting, so they decided to vote for Stanfield in the same category. It could also be that voters wanted to nominate both, but lead actor was just too crowded. In a sense, they bumped Boseman down in supporting so they didn’t have to bump down Yeun or someone else in Lead. It doesn’t have to be about race. It can just be that they figured out a way to get both Judas actors nominated. What puzzles me is that the Judas surge didn’t bring in Fishback. I thought she would bump Seyfried or Bakalova or Close.
Fishback may have been somewhat close because of the Judas surge. But aside from 7-12 people voting for her at BAFTA, I don’t think she had enough in the end.
Still surprised that Jodie Foster missed: first time since 1976 a GG winner missed Supp.Actress nod, and BAFTA loved The Mauritanian.
I see it as, Kaluuya and Stanfield have essentially the same size role importance and screen time wise so the right thing to do is have them in the same category. It’s just odd that it happens to be in supporting. I’d put them both in lead. but I think, given the overall quality of the nominees, this was the way to go. And I was really hoping Boseman would miss in supporting so I was glad he was replaced with a way more deserving, equally diverse, nomination.
Another Academy hose job; no Wonder Woman 1984 in Original Score. Don’t care if a snippet of Frankie Goes to Hollywood’s Welcome to the Pleasuredome was in there, that’s hardly worth DQing it.
The only gold Wonder Woman 1984 deserves is a gold garbage bin
That score was recycled garbage. If the Razzies had a score category, it would have been favored to win.
Nomadland being snubbed for score and Sorkin being snubbed for director were the two biggest misses
Yes Borat has a long title and it has a long list of writers. I like Nick Jonas in that spiffy gold suit this morning.
”Borat …” must’ve set the Oscar record for the longest movie title and the most screenwriters (9!).
Does anyone else think it could surprise in this category?
Not in screenplay
And with the rise of anti-Asian violence and attacks during the corona crisis, I’m relieved that ”Wuhan Flu” DIDN’T get an Oscar nomination. I realize it’s meant to be satirical, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Proud Boys took it at face value.
Like the Proud Boys saw Borat 2 to begin with. That’s a silly reason to be relieved
The Proud Boys have taken a song from ”Aladdin” – ”Proud of Your Boy” – and made it one of their anthems, and I doubt they needed to see the Disney movie.
That doesn’t mean that it should be disqualified because some racists tried to reappropriate it lol. That seems very reactionary
I am just a bit annoyed that for the second time the Academy had no problem nominating a Borat script but when it comes down to the script of a broad comedy that was written by and about women, they ghost even with strong precursor exposure in the background (Mean Girls, Bridesmaids, Booksmart come to mind, no precursor love but still worthy IMO would be A Simple Favour).
Granted, Borat is not my cup of tea but I also understand many love it and have no issue with it getting nominations, my problem is that some gender equality when it comes to broad comedy scripts at the Oscars, would be nice. Women are funny, too.
I agree but I don’t think Bridesmaids works as an example because it was nominated
I completely forgot !
Well Bridesmaids was deservedly nominated but you make such a good point once again Phantom. That Booksmart snub still pisses me…
There are movies that have won the PGA before without both a Globe picture win and an Oscar nomination for directing: Little Miss Sunshine and Apollo 13. Both failed to win Best Picture at the Oscars, though. So maybe Trial wouldn’t be the BP favorite even if it won PGA. Very unclear…
I think most of the times we underestimate the difference a change in vote counting would make in past results.
If votes were counted the way they are today in the past we would have a bunch of different Best Picture results.
I am 101% sure the Academy would have never put together this new voting system if, for example, Brokeback Mountain wouldn’t have beaten Crash. That upset is one of the major drivers of preferential balloting to determine the winners.
Agreed. But it was the other way around. Crash beat Brokeback. Maybe you meant to type something like “if BM hadn’t been beaten by Crash“?
Just an amendment to clarify. The Academy wouldn’t choose this preferential balloting system if BBM wouldn’t have beaten Crash IN THE NEW VOTING SYSTEM.
The Academy stated it had run the new voting count in previous voting data.
Oh, sorry. I didn’t have that information. Thanks.
Have they directly stated that Brokeback would have won or that in general they run data from previous years? Because from what I understood the preferential system was mostly implemented to counterbalance the larger amount of nominees, and thus the data they’ve run is most likely nominations data
They stated, when the up to 10 system was implemented in 2011, that running the voting in the years before with the new accounting there would be years with 5, 6… something like that, which definitely indicates they ran the voting changes in past results to take the decision.
Yes but that is for nominations, not wins. They would not have the data about Brokeback winning over Crash in the preferential system simply because the votes collected only had one movie on them.
For sure. But they can know how Brokeback’s lead (or not) in the nominations phase would compare to Crash depending on the system adopted.
But those things are not comparable, the amount of votes changes completely when it’s only limited to that collection of films and with time.
Very interesting!…
I don’t think Apollo 13 would have won over Braveheart, though. No directing nomination, no screenplay win, no acting win, no tech sweep. Just editing and sound. Vs. director plus 3 more Oscars besides picture. And LMS had no directing or editing nominations, so it was definitely not beating The Departed under any system. I agree some results might be different but not these – and, generally, not that many. Preferential and the old system often give the exact same results, we can easily see this in simulations.
Apollo 13 is not even one of the top cases that come to my mind when I think of that.
– Traffic
– The Pianist
– Brokeback Mountain
– La La Land
– The Big Short/The Revenant
Mank is kinda meh for me. I would have replaced Oldman with Tahar Rahim.
Nomadland has ZERO chances of losing director / picture. Might also get cinematography and screenplay.
Trent Reznor gets his second oscar.
Actress is a wide open race between Davis (in a supporting role), Frances (might win) and Mulligan (should win)
Minari might have one “consolation” awards although Id rather see it sweep (no chance of that)
Its a bit boring for me. Now I’m left wondering how the ceremony will be.
Davis and Day are likely to split votes cause they play similar characters. Mulligan wins. I don’t care what BAFTA jury has to say. We’ve seen the power of Euro Block at work today.
Play similar characters? You cannot be sure that they Will Split The votes
I never said I was sure. I said it was likely. That isn’t the same as sure.
Mank was meh for me as well.
I hope Nomadland goes home empty handed. I don’t understand a single nomination it got.
Now that Ma Rainey missed in BP, I think Viola isn’t happening.
I never considered Viola Davis a chance to win. No leads from the same movie have won since Jack & Helen for ‘As Good As It Gets’ and that was 24 years back – and it was up for Best Picture. This is Carey Mulligan’s to lose.
So can Glenn Close win BOTH the Oscar AND the Razzie for ”Hillbilly Elegy”? (I hope not the former!)
I am 95% confident someone will become a Razzie and Oscar winner. Just don’t yet know who.
I never really believed the “Glenn Close is disliked by the industry” rumours BUT if she loses again, for the 8th time, when her competition is 3 first-time nominees and a recent winner, then I will believe something is up. Odd thing is I could still see 4 of the 5 win. Maybe not Colman due to her recent win in lead (against Close no less) but
– Close is supremely overdue (overall reviews for the film + that unfair af Razzie bad press though)
– Youn is a legend in a strong BP contender (Academy’s foreign language bias though)
– Seyfried is a movie star in the most-nominated film (no SAG+Bafta though so stats-wise tricky)
– Bakalova is the only one with all major nominations (Academy’s comedy bias though).
Yeah… I kinda agree Colman would have a shot if Close missed. With Close in… Close may lose but the industry will avoid the double guilt to give it to Colman.
They clearly liked The Father, so it seems very plausible Close loses to Colman a second time…
Exactly. 🙂 Surely they wouldn’t go there…
Glenn’s case is very upsetting to me.HB wasn’t nominated for worst film but Glenn was nominated for worst actresswhen she was the best thing about that film?BS.
Razzie voters are just a bunch of misogynistic trolls who know full well that they can only get any kind of press coverage or a rise out of film types if they shamelessly (and of course unfairly) go after an acclaimed actress delivering good work in a panned film, and they pull that deplorable shit like clockwork every single year. This year it is Close and Hathaway, last year it was Dench and Chastain. Assoles every last one of those voters.
If the precursors for Supporting Actress ends up splitting 4 ways like it did in 2000 and 2007, the Oscar went to the more established name who had not won – Marcia Gay Harden, Tilda Swinton.
Mess…
I’ve been saying for weeks, that if Close gets in, she wins! Yes those other three are compelling, but the general membership i don’t think will overlook her again. That’s my gut instinct. That said I would prefer to see Youn or Bakalova as I thought they were transformative performances, but it is well time to say Academy Award Winner Glenn Close.
These are good nominees. I did not like Mank at all, but I knew it would earn a lot of nominations. Very impressed with the strong showing of The Father, Promising Young Woman, and Paul Raci’s nomination for Sound of Metal. I think Glenn Close will win for Hillbilly Elegy, it’ll be her career Oscar. I’m calling it now.
I’m calling Bakalova. Borat has more support than Close’s movie and Bakalova became the face of it. Youn is a potential spoiler due to Minari strength.
It just hit me. Close is right now in Peter O’Toole territory.
… and they snubbed him at age 74 when he was up for an Oscar in Lead with a critically acclaimed indie film. That’s why I am very cautiously optimistic about Close’s chances. Also her category is all over the place, pretty much anyone can still emerge as the frontrunner since it doesn’t seem to have one just yet.
Yeah, but no one could have beaten Whitaker that year. He was just too good. Close indeed does not seem to be going against a single juggernaut that is sweeping everything. But is that enough? I dunno. I feel for her, I really do. But if she wins for this, she’ll get her fair share of online outrage.
It has to be something, her nomination. Hillbilly was derided by critics and viewers, but yet, Glenn’s performance, although ridiculed, people rightly suspected that it was still good enough to get her that Oscar nomination. After what happened to her in 2019… my bet is on Close. It’s NO way she’s going to lose to Amanda and Maria, two newcomer girls, No way!
If she is loosing to anyone it’s gonna be Youn Yuh-Jung. Coleman? Nah. Too soon, too much. I do think at this point Minari is winning Best Supporting Actress and Best Original Screenplay.
Pinocchio in Best Costume was a surprise. Especially over Ammonite.
A stat (or, OK, observation) I just thought of: the last 3 movies that have won Best Picture at the Oscars while being snubbed for their directing (so the only 3 since the 1930’s) all won the Globe for Best Picture in their respective categories. Argo, Green Book and Driving Miss Daisy. True, Daisy probably would have lost a combined category, but the point is it didn’t lose the one it was in. (It won 3/3 Globes, two of them for acting – wasn’t nominated for screenplay or directing. BoRhap did a similar thing recently, so it’s not even 100% clear Daisy would have lost against Born on the Fourth of July. Green Book probably would have beaten BoRhap and maybe even Roma, had that been eligible.)
Trial was the favorite to win the drama Globe (I think it was the most predicted at Gold Derby – I’m not sure), and it still lost.
Trial is done
I definitely don’t think it’s done. If it wins the PGA, to me it perhaps even becomes the favorite. (Again?)
I agree. dont rule Chicago 7 out for a BP win. Sorkin not being nominated for Director surely weakens the film’s status, but also Peter Farrelly wasnt in the Director lineup either and the rest is history.
I still see Chicago 7 winning after all this, PGA will be even more crucial this year.
This. Sorkin snub killed it and he ain’t winning Script either. I see it got Editing but it won’t help it. It’s not winning that either.
A lot of us kept saying…
Over and over again.
Sorkin Snub prayer circle on AD worked!
As long as it’s winning script, it’s not out.
I think it’s still comfortably winning script.
We’ll see at the WGA.
I don’t think it is THAT comfortable, not with Emerald Fennell getting 3 nominations thus clearly being embraced by the Academy in a big way and if they want to give her an Oscar, original screenplay is the easiest way to do it.
But they will also want to award Chicago 7. It’s the best performing film of awards season so far, in terms of nominations.
They can award PYW (if not Fennell herself) with Mulligan’s acting win.
But not the best-performing film at the Oscars though. Not even close, four films did better in the main categories : Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Minari, Mank (in that order).
It can win editing. That’s pretty big and everybody knows it.
It can totally win Editing. That’s what I’m predicting.
Ah OK!
I mean lets look at past Editing winners.
The Social Network (BP nom)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (no BP nom)
Argo (BP win)
Gravity (BP nom)
Whiplash (BP nom)
Mad Max: Fury Road (BP nom)
Hacksaw Ridge (BP nom)
Dunkirk (BP nom)
Bohemian Rhapsody (BP nom)
Ford v Ferrari (BP nom)
Most likely, the Best Picture winner doesn’t win film editing.
Amazing stat!
https://media4.giphy.com/media/3oz8xVUU9aEDL1jHoI/giphy.gif
Love Phedon Papamichael but found the Cinematography in Chicago 7 to be quite flat.
It’s the flattest cinematography in the whole flat world!
Łukasz Żal was the real casualty this season
Lachlan Milne should’ve gotten in for ”Minari.” And his editor, Harry Yoon, too.
I haven’t seen Minari yet
Speaking of politics, two short-listed documentaries missed the Oscar cut: ”Boys State” and ”All In: The Fight for Democracy.” (Plus, Delroy Lindo missed for playing a MAGA supporter in ”Da 5 Bloods.”)
It wasn’t the part that cost Lindo, it was Boseman’s death. Boseman lives, he’s the frontrunner in supporting.
I think the opposite… without Boseman’s death, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom wouldn’t be nearly a fraction of the contender it was. This and Da 5 Bloods split for multiple reasons. Without Boseman’s death, Da 5 Bloods would be the real deal.
I think Boseman would have been contending for Supporting with that performance if he had lived.
5 Bloods was messy but not even remotely dull, and I like that Spike isn’t coasting on his Oscar and still trying to challenge himself.
Possible… co-leads contending in Supporting is informal norm in the industry.
Off the glass for two…and the foul
I don’t think either would be in contention if Boseman lived.
Da 5 Bloods was not bad, just not great.
Ma Rainey was… just the worst.
I think it would be clearly Netflix’s third player. It could have lost the Best Picture nomination like The Two Popes but it wouldn’t be restricted to a Score nomination.
Looks like they really didn’t like All in: The Fight for Democracy. It also missed Original Song.
I loved both but the real snub in documentary is Welcome to Chechnya. Boys State and All In pale in comparison to that. One of the bravest and fiercest docs of the century. A huuuuge misfire from the doc branch. I guess the branch couldn’t relate to more than one Eastern European masterpiece.
I’m sorry that ”Chechnya” missed the cut. Also missed for Special Effects, too.
Lindo didn’t miss for playing a MAGA supporter, wtf? He missed because he was campaigned in Lead which turned out to be a stacked category. His movie fizzled by the time of awards season and all attention was on Boseman including ridiculous Supporting noms for Da 5 Bloods that he received from precursors. he missed because Riz and Yeun were in movies that peaked at the right time.
Damn, I thought “All In” would be a good pick soleley based on its topic. But on the other hand, I´m glad that things are not working this predictable.
Sad that the special effects in Welcome to Chechnya was snubbed. It’s revolutionary.
My Quick Hot Take about Best Picture:
Frontrunners: Nomadland; The Trial of the Chicago 7
Possible challenger: Promising Young Woman
The rest aren’t winning.
I see Minari being a dark horse
Without an editing nomination, on the back of a poor showing at BAFTA and HFPA? No shot.
Well after the past few years we know all the stats have to be taken with a grain of salt
I disagree. I think the stats have to be interpreted correctly.
Not a single tech nomination? That’s not a stat. It’s death penalty.
Not when several of them point to the same thing and there aren’t enough that say the opposite to counterbalance that…
Sound of Metal is in a better place than Minari, stats wise.
I don’t see anything beating Nomadland but I guess it can’t get any boost from SAG really, so what remains is PGA. If it wins there, it’s gonna be as unstoppable as it already seems.
Do remember that 1917 won both PGA and DGA.
True enough but I think of 1917 as being the “old guard” type of film that was ripe for an upset while Nomadland is usually the type of film that would upset were it not already the frontrunner. Chicago 7 is an “old guard” type of film. I would love to see Promising Young Woman take BP in a shocker from out of nowhere!
It depends on the competition. 1917 got a stiff one in Parasite (a *huge* SAG winner). If Trial wins SAG and WGA, then the competition would be stiff for Nomadland.
I very much agree.
I still get the feeling it’s not winning both SAG & WGA. (Minari, ProYo…)
Trial 7 has to be considered a frontrunner at SAG. Its only competition there is Minari (since the other 3 were not nominated for BP — and all winners except for Birdcage have been BP nominees).
Trial 7 has the type of cast and and acting tone (serio-comic) that would win SAGE, just like last year’s frontrunner Once…Hollywood. Yes, Once was upset by Parasite, but Parasite (1) has that said acting tone (which Minari does not) and (2) was on its way to win BP (which Minari is arguably not). And besides can a Korean speaking movie defeat a SAGE frontrunner two years in a row?
Trial 7 is definitely vulnerable at WGA and isn’t considered a frontrunner there. But if it does end up winning, then it would have bucked its underdog status and won and one would have to take it seriously as a BP threat.
(If you saw this in the other thread – which I imagine you did -, just ignore this one! It’s the same reply, pasted in. I was told this might help, adding it in here as well – not sure why, but it’s easy enough to do it, so…)
“And besides can a Korean speaking movie defeat a SAG frontrunner two years in a row?”
Well, if I could see any group doing this, it would be SAG. 🙂 Not AMPAS, surely! But yes, overall, you’re probably right, Trial is the favorite at SAG. Maybe a big one, maybe not, hard to say. But a favorite. So, besides PGA, WGA will decide, in the end, as usual…
(If you saw this in the other thread – which I imagine you did -, just ignore this one! It’s the same reply, pasted in. I was told this might help, adding it in here as well – not sure why, but it’s easy enough to do it, so…)
“And besides can a Korean speaking movie defeat a SAG frontrunner two years in a row?”
Well, if I could see any group doing this, it would be SAG. 🙂 Not AMPAS, surely! But yes, overall, you’re probably right, Trial is the favorite at SAG. Maybe a big one, maybe not, hard to say. But a favorite. So, besides PGA, WGA will decide, in the end, as usual…
Nomadland got this, I can see Promising Young Woman with original screenplay, that’s always the consolation prize for Best Picture.
I wouldn’t completely rule out Mank. One conclusion this blog reached a while back (Crash, The Artist…) is to never underestimate a movie about Los Angeles or Hollywood once the nominations are set.
It has big problems with Screenplay and Editing, but it was only bumped by Best Picture nominees, and it could be right behind them. Tech branches will support it, and it got the nominations it wanted with actors. Just leave 5% for it.
5%? I would take the under in any bet.
Missing both screenplay and editing is (almost) insurmountable.
‘never underestimate a movie about Los Angeles or Hollywood once the nominations are set.’
La La Land being the perfect counter-example to that (with a whopping 14 nods)
And I think Mank is enduring the same backlash La La Land went through
Sounds about right.
Where is Sammy ?
On life support, I assume
Life support >>>>>>>>>> dead which is what Ma Rainey is now. 😉
Except for Boseman, he’s winning.
Yes that was never in doubt. But Sammy believed that Ma would win Picture. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
I don’t think that was the case even for Sammy anymore, after the DGA snub. That’s the impression I got. But of course getting snubbed, even, must hurt. Sucks… 🙁
Ok let’s be nice.
Hmmm, so ProYo is the only BP nominee not at least tied for second in nominations… Wow! Pretty unusual, to put it mildly. Also, that sucks. It’s only tied for 8th, which knocks it out according to my system (no BP winner has ever not been at least tied for 7th). I could see this breaking this year, I suppose, since it’s so borderline, with just the one extra nod missing for it to be as high as tied for second. But there’s also the SAG thing… I won’t be predicting it, unless I change my system, that’s for sure. And I would say this means Trial (which for instance got in for cinematography, somewhat surprisingly) is nevertheless second in the Oscar race, despite the directing miss. And Minari third, at least according to industry stats. (And, technically, Sound of Metal fourth, because it’s only missed for directing – DGA+Oscar -, as I don’t count SAG/acting snubs for my elimination rules anymore, since pre-last year’s ceremony, due to a larger analysis I did. But Sound of Metal is about as dead, given it also missed BAFTA BP, as a not-technically-dead movie can be, within the confines of my system. Which thus narrows it down to 3 possibilities left, one of which I imagine will soon no longer be a possibility anyway, as Minari is unlikely to win either PGA or DGA and isn’t up for the WGA, being ineligible. Sound of Metal won’t be winning any of those either, so it will be down to Nomadland and Trial, as expected all along.) But it’s a year in which even the front-runner is vulnerable, which is when more stats-unfriendly movies (such as ProYo) winning becomes possible. Every contender has missed something major – from weakest to strongest:
The Father – missed PGA, DGA, ACE, SAG Ensemble and Oscar directing (ineligible for WGA); knocked out due to the two snub rule, of course;
Judas and the Black Messiah – missed DGA, ACE, SAG and Oscar directing + editing; also out via the two snub rule;
Mank – missed SAG Ensemble and Oscar screenplay + editing (ineligible for WGA); out via two snub rule;
Promising Young Woman – missed SAG Ensemble, failed to make the Oscar top 7 in the nominations rankings; out due to the nominations ranking thing;
Sound of Metal – missed DGA, SAG Ensemble and Oscar directing; not technically out yet, as I said;
Minari – missed Oscar editing; not out yet (ineligible for WGA);
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – missed Oscar directing; remains in the hunt, especially (and perhaps only, though there isn’t yet enough historical evidence to conclude this) if it wins the PGA;
Nomadland – missed SAG Ensemble (ineligible for WGA); the front-runner, both stats-wise and… otherwise-wise. 🙂
I just saw Nomadland a little while ago, by the way. I wasn’t into it in the first 15-20 minutes, but it won me over by the end, pretty much completely. An unusually beautiful movie (visually and aurally) that resonates emotionally, as well. I still like ProYo more, but I liked this more than expected, too, I would say. As for whether it’s the kind of thing that wins Best Picture… That’s a toughie, still. 🙂 I didn’t necessarily get a major vibe while watching it that it wasn’t. Plus, it helps that it’s pretty straightforward, the protagonist has a clear arc and a simple, relatable story. And is somebody you root for. I think these things could be enough for the voters to not find it either boring (it’s pretty relevant to 2021) or cold, as has perhaps been the case with the likes of Roma or The Social Network. We shall see…
COLLECTIVE BACK-TO-BACK BIDS!!!!!!!!!!
So happy for Romania. 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days, my country’s City of God and Gomorra were the triggers that changed this category. You really deserve it. And I hope it wins Documentary. Hope to see Brazil back here one day.
Yeah, that’s awesome! 🙂 We had zero up to now and all of a sudden we get two in one year. Beautiful! I’m just happy they liked it so much – as did I. If it wins doc, somehow, that will be an unforgettable moment, but even as it is this is fantastic…
It worked out quite beautifully that my team leader is absent today so we are not meeting, giving me time to mull over the nominations and comments. We will have to revisit our draft at some point.
🙂 Awesome!
No need to revisit the draft. :)) You’re destroying me, that’s quite clear.
I know I have Boseman for Actor and Nomadland in picture, screenplay, and director. I am hoping I lose in original screenplay; I want Promising Young Woman to beat Trial, though I like both. At least all your picks are nominated; Yaya wasn’t. In supporting actress, I have Colman and you have Seyfried, right?
It’s a masterclass in documentary. One of those films that dignify and define the medium. Unfortunately my second favorite doc, the masterful Welcome to Chechnya, failed to beat an average self-help film starring an octopus.
Oh wow, I just realized that – unreal… That seemed almost a lock to get in. (I haven’t seen it yet, but I will – it was recommended to me by somebody here very early on.)
I love the octopus film!
Sorry, but only 5 nominations ‘Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom’
Boseman and Makeup are the only two it even deserved, so the filmmakers should be happy. Davis was good but that’s very much a Supporting Actress performance—doesn’t belong anywhere near Lead.
Should have only been 3
Too many. I’d also have given just three.
I would have just given it one. Ann Roth only.
Costumes, Make Up and Glynn Turman for me.
Turman’s the MVP for me but won’t give him a nomination.
The one I would never ever give even a top 15 mention was Leslie Odom Jr. The true tour de force of that film was sacrificed in Lead to help boost Odom, who would never received all this if not for the immense Hamilton goodwill.
Boseman and Makeup are the only two it even deserved, so the filmmakers should be happy. Davis was good but that’s very much a Supporting Actress performance—doesn’t belong anywhere near Lead.
I don’t think Boseman should have been nominated. Unless we should award him for playing an extremely annoying character really well..
I wonder if he’d still be winning if he’s still with us today?
That’s the infuriating part. Based on how many times the Academy (and ALL major award organisations) had snubbed him while he was alive even though he had well-received, Oscar-friendly star vehicles left and right (42, Get On Up, Marshall, Black Panther), I am fairly certain, were he alive now, he would have been a top10 contender for Ma Rainey in supporting at best. And while I appreciate it that the Academy will correct their past mistakes and make sure he goes down in film history as an Oscar winner (for a brilliant performance), I just wish they had caught on earlier. As in when he was still here and could have enjoyed all this success and recognition.
I don’t think he would be. Maybe nominated, but not winning.
I think people are scared to say anything bad about the movie or Boseman’s performance, which again is not a bad performance, it’s the character that I wish would just shut up.
that’s 5 too many lol
Bummed that First Cow is virtually forgotten this year.
The taste of home can never be forgotten.
I noticed that Seberg, Trial of the Chicago 7, Judas and the Black Messiah and Seberg all have the same plot:
All 4 films are about a white dominant justice department seeking to destroy a perceived threat somewhere in the 50s or 60s (with some racial bias and no logic behind it) and a conflicted guy in the middle (Joseph Gordon Levitt, Jack OConnor, Lakieth Stanfield, Trevonte Rhodes) is the voice of reason
Joseph Gordon Levitt is not the voice of reason.
I would argue he is WITHIN the context of their times. Hindsight is 2020 so the true heroes of the story are the protagonists.
He tells the head of the DOJ that this is not a solid case, they won’t have a chance of winning it and he applauds at the end.
He’s like Trevonte Rhodes character and Jack O’Connor’s character in that he’s a victim of the times (both characters seek to advance their careers first before doing the right thing).
He doesn’t applaud, he stands in solidarity.
But yes, (characters seek to advance their careers first before doing the right thing).
yeah, that’s true, haha.
that would be kind of odd if he applauded in the middle of a courtroom
I forgot about his applause. I should watch this one again.
He doesn’t applaud.
I love that nomination for Lakeith Stanfeld for the Judas and the black messiah. He’s becoming a huge star.
I dislike that greyhound got a sound nomination. I don’t have Apple TV.
Borat subsequent movie film did well with 2 nominations
Yuh-Jung for Minari, she was good as the grandmother
Surprised that welcome to chedenya did not get a nomination for visual effects.
The trial of the chicago 7, surprised that it got in for cinematography. Although phadon Papamichael is one of the best cinematographers we have in the movie business today.
Nomadland will win for cinematography, director, writing and picture.
Glenn close gets in over Jodie foster. I guess hillbilly elegy is a good movie to AMPAS, Close has a shot at winning.
Greyhound was completely boring. I tried so hard, and I really like Hanks and history. I still only made it about 45 minutes into it and never went back. I have a free year of Apple+ since I have a new ipod. So far I have only watched Morning Show, a bit of Greyhound, and a little bit of the show Tehran.
That doesn’t matter; the sound was totally deserving of its nomination. Did you see it nominated for anything else? Neither did I.
I was not saying it didn’t deserve the nomination. Someone was commenting on not having watched it because they didn’t have Apple+, and I was giving my opinion that it bored me to tears, and I would not waste even the very cheap monthly subscription cost to see it. Trust me, I am well aware that some boring to lousy movies can score in the techs, like Transformers and its ilk.
What about news of the world. How do you feel about that film?
I did not see it yet. I will probably watch it when it comes out on video or free on a streaming service. It doesn’t really interest me that much, though I do like Tom Hanks.
Can we admit that the Globes continues to be influential since Andra Day got in at the Oscars? Imean, if she hadn’t won that then we might have a different name for that 5th Lead Actress spot.
Hadn’t voting already ended by that point?
Voting only ended last week.
Nope, started a week later and lasted for another week.
I think Day was in either way.
Not necessarily. Day would be in SAG if not for the late screeners
Also Foster winning Globe and missing nod…
I think the Globes have always been influential, the reason why Day’s surprise win in Drama made me predict her without hesitation for the 5th slot at the Oscars,. The trick is that those 90something foreign journalists can only influence the conversation / boost certain contenders with surprise wins meanwhile the thousands of Guilds / Bafta voters actually have a big overlap with Oscar voters, the reason why those are probably considered to be more crucial precursors than the Globes.
It can be influential, but didn’t help Jodie Foster, Bill Murray, Rosamund Pike or Jared Leto today.
Not sure about Pike. Never bought her win at the Globes. I thought it’s just a fad since her film has just been released on Netflix. Murray and Leto were on the fringes but Leto’s film in not good to say the least and I think the problem with Murray is the campaigning of Apple TV+ as an awards newbie (I may just be making this excuse). I wonder who would be the 6th place in supporting if Stanfield didn’t surprise? I’m thinking Alan Kim. The lack of Foster reflects that the voters didn’t like The Mauritanian or else they would nominate it in other categories like Adapted Screenplay and Rahim would have gotten in Lead.
Clearly, the Oscar voters didn’t share the enthusiasm for ”The Mauritanian” that BAFTA has. If they did, you’re right: Foster and Rahim would’ve gotten in.
We usually don’t have more than 1 very late breakers. This year we even had two. The Mauritanian would always be behind this two in the “pecking order” of very late entries.
It’s possible. But actors on Instagram were raving about her performance. I didn’t really see that passion for anyone else for the 5th spot.
This is a reminder to myself: I have a lot of films to watch. I haven’t seen all nominees in any category yet. Where to start, where to start…
Start with Sound of Metal! If you have Amazon Prime it’s free.
Yea – I’m going to start with all the ones I can stream. Then try to get to the theater soon to see The Father and Judas ASAP.
Loved this movie and all its nominations, including Raci!!
I think I have around 20 Oscar-nominated movies (2021 edition) I want to see that I haven’t already. Could’ve been more. The Mauritanian is probably getting skipped now. 🙂
Bravo to Steven Yeun, who becomes the first Asian-American guy nominated for Best Actor.
(I wonder how long it’ll take before we see the first Asian-American gal up for Best Actress.)
And there’s diversity on the producing side: ”Minari’s” Christina Oh is the first Asian-American woman to receive a nomination for Best Picture. And ”Judas and the Black Messiah” made history with an all-black producing trio of Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler.
Neatly wiping away the filth from Walking Dead off of his CV to boot.
Say what you will about that ridiculous show, but it has generated some great talent that went on to better things — Danai Gurai, Lauren Cohen. Sonequa Martin-Green
I just remember all the outrage when they killed him off (just like they did in the comic) when it allowed him to finally ACT in other projects.
Fandoms gonna fandom
But not the mud pie he got on his hands in I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson
Asian-British Gemma Chan could surprise next season if red-hot Zhao’s follow-up, Eternals really is the epic masterpiece early whispers are making it sound like. Honestly, Chan should be an Oscar nominee already, her role / performance in Crazy Rich Asians was everything Oscar Supporting Actress dreams are made of. But she had the comedy bias and way too much internal competition (Yeah, Awkwafina).
I thought it was Yeoh who’s everything an Oscar Supporting Actress dreams are made of among the performances in CRA.
Her, too.
I really think Gemma Chan has the acting range of a plank of wood.
She did a fine job in Let Them All Talk, I thought.
I don’t.
Yul Brynner and Ben Kingsley don’t make the cut?
Yul Brynner is probably considered Russian, which is lumped in with European, and Kinglsey is British.
Just take a moment to check which part of Russia he was born in 🙂
Vladivostok, I am aware
Kingsley is british in nationality but ethnically is more like an indian man… does that count? I don’t know
Sounds racist
It wasn’t my intention
ps: I am latino so I can’t be racist
> ps: I am latino so I can’t be racist
lol suuuure
Why type twice? I understood it the first time.
Are you calling me dumber cuz I’m not white?
I mean, OBVIOUSLY
Lol that was cute
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9f2ac8b207d735108843c842576257e6b5421d1df3856aa55cacaff564eda516.png
I just read in Twitter that Chloe Zhao is Asian-American. A Chinese. Really…
https://media0.giphy.com/media/f4U69H8mPThFvoD9zI/giphy.gif
Have you lost your mind, Júlio?
Your violent threat is deleted and you’re blacklisted.
Email me if you want to talk about how you can come back.
Latin/Latino/Hispanic/Iberoamerican is not a race, it is a culture base on the language that you speak
As far as I know India is in Asia 🙂
What I mean is: his nationality is british, but his ethnicity is indian.
What counts the most? ethnicity or nationality?
I love how Maria Bukalova says that she comes from an underrepresented background (Eastern Europeans). It’s true and the wokesters don’t even care because they’re so focused on skin color.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=maria+bukalova&view=detail&mid=1353B5D5FF1527B730DF1353B5D5FF1527B730DF&FORM=VIRE
– Glad the Academy didn’t ride the Regina King marketing machine.
– It’s Colman vs. Close Part Deux– except they will both lose
– Where is Margot Robbie in the list of producers for Promising Young Woman?
– Vinterberg over Sorkin! Loved it. The Academy still knows how to surprise
– Yay for 2 women in Directing
– Yay for Lakeith Stanfield
– No Boseman in Supporting is just and fair
– No Jodie Foster, Helena Zengel, Mads Mikkelsen 🙁
It would be HILARIOUS if Colman won again, considering one of the wittiest parts of her famous speech was telling her kids “This (Oscar) isn’t happening again”
Would have preferred Foster and most especially Zengel over Close and Seyfried. But hell, Seyfried deserved that nod as well. She was the MVP of Mank for me.
Yes, give Margot her due! The film is even through her production company.
Is there a limit to the number of producers of a nominated film similar to PGA? Margot was also not nominated for PGA
I have this weird feeling that Andra Day will win.
Really weird…
It is weird, but so is this whole season. Mulligan might seem like the obvious choice, but… I dunno. Just a hunch.
My roommate Taji has known since January 1
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/1345104058609184774
I prefer Kirby
I am with you there. Could be a shocker.
very possible
Very possible
I’m kind of feeling that as well.
Wouldn’t be surprise. Her performance ticks all the right boxes. And in an impressive field of nominees is even more impressive that it’s a film debut. I loved her and Carey. If I was a voter, I’d be split
It’s possible. But there are many things working against her. The most obvious one is she’s the only nomination for her film, and unless you’re a respected veteran sweeping the season, that’s almost an impossible feat to achieve. Second, she’s a famous singer playing another famous singer, Oscar voters (unlike the HFPA) will likely not see that as a big stretch. And of course she missed SAG which was crucial. So not impossible since she won the Globe, but not likely at the moment.
Also missed BAFTA – even the longlist, if memory serves.
Is this the first time someone got nominated for an Oscar for acting opposite real people in Bakalova?
This “Another Round” sounds like an awesome film, anyone know where it’s streaming
Well, I almost hated Another Round but a lot of people love it, so…
Frances McDormand was nominated for Nomadland.
I mean, technically Frances McDormand acts opposite ‘real people’ as well. But I think you mean, is she the first nomination who does partial work in improvisation on screen — with people who are unaware she is a character? That is probably a yes. The only other screen presence I can even think comes close is Scarlett Johansson in Under the Skin and she was not (regrettably) nominated for that performance.
You can currently rent Another Round (for $ on Apple) but I’m not sure its available on one of the big streaming services yet
Well, we can also ask about the uniqueness of Frances McDormand here. Off the top of my head, I know that Tony Scott populated Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 with ex-cons and Sidney Lumet populated Prince of the City with real cops but neither of those was in contention
I think another round will be added to H*lu
Wikipedia is having a rough morning https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8ccab118489545e0dd314abf29b2b7ff89ec43d0d96434cab4c4181cd4dec437.png
The stats table is now complete, by the way. ProYo almost ties Trial in second place (it’s still behind on number of relevant nominations missed, but its misses are probably a bit less important). I’ll just give the BP nominees, this time, since this table is all about trying to predict BP:
Nomadland 119 (weighted total) 56 (straight count)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 104 47
Promising Young Woman 104 46
Minari 86 39
Mank 69 30
Sound of Metal 57 27
The Father 55 25
Judas and the Black Messiah 33 16
I just noticed, entering the stuff, that Minari missed for editing. I had missed that. I mean, I didn’t think it was winning BP anyway, but this seems to confirm it. (Not definitively, of course. It’s just one miss. It got into acting, directing and screenplay.)
Does that mean ‘ProYo’ still has a chance? What would be the winning odds for each of the top 3 frontrunners? Or is it too early to tell?
I love that you call it ProYo, that sounds like a brand of protein shake.
I think that should be the new official title on the marquis, movie poster, and I want to hear Don LaFontaine say it ont he trailer.
Probiotic Young Woman
Oooh… Brutal… 🙂
I was the first. 🙂 Even before I saw it, I was calling it that. I don’t know why it came to me, that abbreviation, but after a while I couldn’t stop doing it.
I think it does, despite the nominations ranking stat, which is on 100% all-time – but, like I said, it’s one away from being tied for second, as opposed to being outside the top 7 (which is what that stat is), so if it’s ever to break, this seems like the most logical time… That said, it is a long shot. If it was winning BP, it might have made it into at least one category it wasn’t expected to. (Like it did with score at BAFTA.) The SAG miss (and only having one nomination there) also looks bad.
Odds… It just all depends so much on the PGA… (Because if Trial wins there, it’s probably the favorite.) I guess I would still say it’s around 50-50 between Nomadland and Trial (with Nomadland ahead, but not sure by how much) – I’m sticking to the anti-Trial lock call, of course, but I always knew that was a gamble, one I took willingly -, with only small chances for all the rest. Maybe something like 10% for Minari. But that’s just stats-wise. Logically speaking, I still think there’s almost no way that wins. And, I don’t know, somewhere under 5% for ProYo. Maybe it’s higher, I’m not sure. The 100% stat and the SAG cast/2+ one are just so brutal…
Hello there. I will write you an email on my thoughts about the Oscars within the next day or two. I need a little bit of processing time. I think I got 18 of the acting nominations, missing Stanfield and someone else. I forget who.
Hey! Well done! 🙂 I probably wouldn’t have done that well… (Although I guess it was mostly the favorites that got in.)
I had Actor and Actress 5/5. I think I missed one each in supporting actor and actress. I had Boseman instead of Stanfield and Foster instead of somebody. Not even sure. I never looked at the lineup when I predicted and was always confused. I didn’t enter the Awards Daily contest this time, but I am sure that somebody would have had a 19 in the acting noms to best my 18. I am glad I stuck with The Father even though others didn’t. I thought I was very off-based when on Sasha’s podcast they seemed to scoff at it… not that surprised that I was right and they were wrong. (KIDDING!)
If Chadwick Bozeman wins would that be the first time a lead actor wins without his film being nominated for best picture since Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart?
Hum, yes…
I think the last year that Best Actor and a Best Actress winners won for films that were not nominated for Best Picture was 2001 (Denzel Washington for Training Day and Halle Berry for Monster’s Ball).
So if Chadwick is a lock, then statistically Frances McDormand and Carey Mulligan are the only two Best Actress nominees with any real chance (which I think has been true regardless).
thats a boring stat but sure
Ah, good point… Could be a problem. Especially since Hopkins’ movie did get in.
Please help….
I live in the UK.
It was stated on Facebook that the Oscar nominations would be shown at 5.19 PST which makes it 1.19PM in the UK; however when I tuned into Fb all the nominations had already dropped.
UK and LA time difference is still 8 hours right?
Am I missing something.
BTW I’m kicking myself for making 5 eleventh hour decisions at 11.30AM UK time am today…
I put Mank back in OS for JATBM
I put in Minari for Nomadland in Editing
I put in Nomadland for Soul in Sound
I put in Minari for Chicago 7 in Cinematography
I put in Foster for Bakolva
Absolutely livid.
I got 89/118 but 94 would have been better
It’s 7 hours at the moment I’m pretty sure. US just switched to Summer time. It was at 12:19.
Oh Fuck!
Damn you March, where’s January when you need it.
Cheers pal.
US summer time just done me over.
The same happened to me, I smoothly entered this site one hour ago and went WTF?! :-))
The invisible man was snubbed in the visual effects category. It was a good movie. The one and only Ivan, very surprising but nothing really spectular. Tenet is a good film but it’s also one of Nolan’s weakest films. Sound of metal deserves all of it’s nominations.
I wanted Lakeith Stanfield to get a nomination since Sorry To Bother You so I’m not mad. But where did this SUPPORTING nomination even come from?
Out Uncle Oscar’s ass
Right? I’m so happy for him and he’s extremely deserving of an Oscar nomination but supporting? Wtf…
You’re upset that something unpredictable happened? I don’t get that, sorry
The reason why I think Mulligan has Best Actress in the bag : stats-wise her biggest competition is McDormand who not only had already won in this category twice but is probably winning her third this season … in Best Picture. So Mulligan, whose film was clearly loved by the Academy more than the films of the other nominees (Davis, Day, Kirby), feels like the frontrunner to me still. IF she doesn’t win SAG then of course all this has to be reevaluated but for now I still think she is looking damn good for this, Bafta be damned.
Mulligan will win because McDormand already have 2 and Davis’s character in Ma Rainey’s is a mess…
Maybe I’m over-thinking this for maximum drama, but I think Promising Young Woman is about to feel some major backlash now that more people will see it (it’s out to rent at normal prices this week).
I sorta feel like Vanessa Kirby might have a chance all of a sudden?
I feel the backlash will go to Nomadland.
I have still yet to find one person, that I personally know, that likes the movie. Everyone I talk to found it boring with good acting.
Nobody will backlash a movie directed and written by a Chinese woman who is about to release a Marvel movie.
And the most important: She is a terrific director. The Rider is better than anything that has won Best Picture in the past 10 years.
You’re right. As soon as I brought up that it was directed by a Chinese woman who is directing a Marvel movie, the people I talked to, that didn’t like it, immediately took back their review and said it was brilliant.
You know what the average person says to me when I tell them that Nomadland is directed by a Chinese woman who next will direct a Marvel movie? They say, “So what? Is the movie any good?”
And I whisper…. “No.”
Now that I finally saw the Rider, how on earth did that not get multiple Oscar nods?
I think the Academy not rewarding a film like that is pretty much the default. What’s more shocking to me is that Nomadland is doing this well.
As others have pointed out, when Zhao parlayed the Rider into the Eternals gig, that got her NOTICED big time in the industry, which definitely gave Nomadland a big leg up when it hit festivals.
For me too, of course.
My guess is that Searchlight is more aggressive than SPC at awards campaign. The Rider also didn’t have Frances McDormand as lead and didn’t won a Golden Lion.
The Rider also didn’t have Frances McDormand as lead.
Right. The inclusion of an A-list actor is what needed to push Nomadland into an industry award juggernaut. Also Nomadland’s timing is perfect. Theme of isolation resonates greatly during this pandemic era.
Great point! (About isolation.)
But that’s not exactly saying much.
Imagining the Marvel promo for Eternals with Zhao having that Academy Award winner reference just to prove that their films are cinema.
I’ve yet to find anyone who didn’t love it…
We all have our bubbles and can find anecdotal evidence to support anything. But the industry has clearly embraced this film. Won’t be backlash from them. It also has a very good audience score. So I don’t see any backlash on the horizon
Consider those who don’t rate movies online, who aren’t in the industry, who just want to watch something good and entertaining on the weekends.
Those people will not care for Nomadland.
Interesting, 80% audience score on RT. (Trial is on 91%.) Seems good enough. 3 of the last 6 BP winners were in the 70’s. True, none as low as 80 going back a while, before that – but the preferential ballot might have something to do with it.
Yes, I have just commented on this waaaay below (like 100 comments below) : Kirby is a viable dark horse in the Best Actress race since her role is exactly the kind of role that could appeal to actors greatly (surprise SAG win ?) and she also has hometown advantage at the Baftas, especially with Mulligan (unfairly) not there.
So if she wins either OR both of those crucial precursor awards, she will be for sure in there with a shot on Oscars Night. However for now my guess is Mulligan wins SAG+Oscar, and Kirby wins Bafta.
I can’t imagine Kirby winning this. I thought she was questionable for the nod. I don’t see backlash for Promising Young Woman because it’s been out for a while and has only GAINED momentum, like Mulligan and the screenplay are in play.
Man, I wish you’re right. Andra Day cannot be ignored after that Golden Globe win (which felt just too much for me regardless of her powerful work in an extremely lackluster film, especially considering her competition) but I wish Carey prevails to any of her co-nominees.
She’s just unbelievable and should have slayed the entire season based on her performance alone. I’d be extremely skeptical of her chances of winning if she loses the SAG but I honestly hope she wins both that and the Oscar. She’d be a deserving winner to say the least.
My hesistancy about PYW is that the ending is incredibly polarizing and in a preferential ballot even a handful of votes in the bottom half could be incredibly deadly.
That could cost the film votes in picture, directing, script, but probably not in lead actress though, no ? Consensus on her performance is universal acclaim even if the ending of the script is polarising.
Mulligan’s winning, especially since McDormand allegedly doesn’t care about this category and is going all in for Zhao.
McDormand doesn’t care much about awards. Hasn’t she been a no-show online?
I think she cares about the BP campaign, but she’s been no-showing the actress awards
I was hoping Kirby to win the BAFTAs so that we could have a race. But I’m not sure who gets to vote at the BAFTAs winners this year since the hullabaloo of last week’s nominations.
I think with the Directing snub for Sorkin, Emerald has a better chance to win Original Screenplay.
It depends if Trial will win best picture or not…
https://media3.giphy.com/media/1xVajldle6CVKnZYp0/giphy.gif
Or the opposite, since he can’t win directing he gets some more votes in screenplay.
I’m not sure about the stats but Directing nom probably increases your chance to win Screenplay.
It can go either way.
Tarantino for Django Unchained. Not nominated for director, won screenplay.
Jordan Peele for Get Out. Nominated for Director, won screenplay.
Martin McDonough for 3 Bilboards. Not nominated for Director. Did not win screenplay.
If Trial going to win best picture, take screenplay, if not, Promising win…
Then again he had won before, Fennell hasn’t and with 3 nominations this season, they may want to give her one and if that’s the case, Original Screenplay is the easiest way to do it.
I mean, he was never winning directing even if he was there, so I doubt it. 🙂
I agree but If Bakalova (or even Close) is winning Supporting, it’s the only place the industry can award Minari.
Picture – Original – Score. I can see that happening.
Picture is tied to Editing nod. So… no
So true
*sips tea*
in case you didn’t noticed, Mank leads with 10 noms and no editing despite being clearly deserving of that. It has been a competitive year in the field, so I don’t think it will factor, as Film Edting noms are voted only by that branch, not the whole AMPAS.
“as Film Edting noms are voted only by that branch, not the whole AMPAS”
They always say this… 🙂 Yet the editing stat keeps chugging along at almost zero exceptions in the last 40 years…
It’s even worse… Zero technical nominations. Zero chance of a film without tracking below the line to score a Best Picture win.
Well, doesn’t score count as a tech nomination?
I never count score as a technical nomination. Always count as aural.
0% chance Soul loses Score in general voting. Its only chance to lose was if the branch snubbed it today.
reality check: Soul is the locked winner for Animated and so it will have a reward. Renzor and Finch are double nominated and are already Oscar winners. The emotional punch of Minari’s score might do the trick.
They will not care if Reznor/Ross already won…
Reality check: no animated score that won the Golden Globe ever lost the Oscars. No animated score that won the Critics Choice ever lost the Oscars.
are you still unaware how unconventional and unpredictable 2020 is?
People love Jon Baptiste. Soul won twice already.
Please don’t scare me like that.
Minari is taking Original. And Picture. Mark my words. Maybe Score as well.
Really? I feel like it’s this year’s Lady Bird.
Without an Editing nom ? No.
that only works with showy editing films. Calmer films like Minari don’t need that win or even nom, to go on and win BP. Their strenght is on the acting, writting, directing and in its case, Score as well.
Same thing was said about Roma.
For the Oscars need the nomination yes… See Spotlight, Green Book, Moonlight…
This is between Nomadland and Chicago 7, which can still win SAG, WGA, PGA and BP. Promising Young Woman is the runner up.
Every single film needs an editing nom.
Except Birdman. 🙂 Very few rules have no exceptions. But yes, this is one of those that come closest, since the beginning of the 1980’s.
Worked with Roma…
Score? No way…
That´s the only film I see beating Nomadland.
That´s a pretty cool Best Picture-lineup, IMO: “Minari” as expected, but also “Sound of Metal” and “Judas and the Black Messiah” as minor suprises (at least they weren´t locks for the nom). All excellent films. I also liked “Promising Young Woman”, really not that much to grumble about.
Okay, they denied “Never Rarely…” at least one screenplay nom, this is actually annoying – even though not really surprising.
Since no one has mentioned it yet: Almodóvar missed in Live Action Short Film
I am actually happy he’s not there. I mean, I love his movies, but his ego doesn’t need a Short Film Live Action Oscar to grow even more. I’d rather have that Oscar go to promising new talents, and with him out of the field, there are more chances for someone new.
I didn’t see Judas and Black Messiah yet. It has no leading role, am I getting it right?
Well, actually, the Oscars almost have no supporting categories anymore…
I think it has two, the performances nominated in supporting
Kaluuya and Stanfield are the co-leads. To call them ”Supporting” is category fraud.
Leading role there is the triumph of film over filmed plays. Just kidding… heavy category frauds the industry accepts every year.