Hollywood, and the media that revolve around it, is having a moment.
In Hollywood, during the Red Scare, the fear that crippled the industry, turned everyone against each other. The paranoid frenzy that led many to suspect that movies were somehow carrying dangerous anarchist messages was not only about exposing communists in their midst, but also about implicating anyone who might be associated with anyone who might be a communist. Communism was the thing, coming out of World War II, that scared Americans so much they were willing to turn in their friends, people they knew, because they had to turn on someone. They felt threatened by something they could not see or prove – it could be anywhere, in anyone.
The era of paranoia would eventually produce some great art. But to get to the art they had to be able to face the truth, the dark truth, the hard truth about what was actually happening versus how people were behaving inside the bubble of hysteria.
https://youtu.be/u5pzSwYaxLg
Humans are built for this kind of dynamic: build a utopia, protect that utopia, purge undesirables. We’re living through one right now not just in Hollywood, not just in the awards race, but on the Left overall. While most industry members and most Americans are not on board with what has come to be known as “cancel culture,” they will not speak out against it and, if given the chance, they will join in; if you are the person doing the accusing, then it’s likely you won’t be one of the accused. But really, anyone is vulnerable. Every day there is a new sacrifice, with no apparent end in sight.
I bring all of this up because we’re heading right into the center of the storm as we barrel towards the Oscars. Can the awards race even survive this level of intense scrutiny, where guilt and crimes are decided in the moment and punishment is enacted immediately, without any sort of rational perspective or due process. One after the other they fall – an old tweet, something said once, something worn once, even if you just defend people who have been cancelled you too will be targeted, as I have personally found out too many times on Twitter. They rationalize it and justify it as “holding people accountable” for the “bad things they do,” as though there are people who are walking around who have never said or done or thought a bad thing.
The Golden Globes and the BAFTA and the Oscars have all been exposed, dismantled, transformed. But have they been forgiven? Are they still seen as part of the systemic racism that the Left believes is everywhere in this country, in everything and in every person? As someone, a white person, said to me on Twitter yesterday, “Whiteness is evil.” Well, okay, so how do you come back from that? The answer from Twitter is always “do better.” That is supposed to be mean choose better, think better, watch better, read better, speak better – uphold the high ideals that will offer up redemption instead of persecution.
Variety’s Clayton Davis has written a scathing indictment of the Golden Globes that essentially says even making the hires they plan to make isn’t going to fix their problem of “systemic racism.” He doesn’t use that term but it is very much his point.
The organization has reportedly turned down press conferences for Black-led projects like “Bridgerton,” “Girls Trip” and “Queen & Slim,” giving various excuses that left some filmmakers with no real chance at attention from the Golden Globes, which are a strong precursor to the Academy Awards and the Emmys. Black artists and Time’s Up have called for radical change within the organization, calling for accountability from NBC Universal which hosts its annual show. Over 100 publicists have sent a letter to the HFPA stating they were instructing their clients to not work with the HFPA until “lasting change to eradicate the longstanding exclusionary ethos” is addressed.
It’s infuriating how easily the HFPA could fix the problems, but transparency is something the HFPA does not seem interested in. They seem to be only concerned with what director DuVernay recalled during her press conference for Netflix’s “When They See Us” — “more came in the room when the pix were to be taken, at which time two peddled their scripts.” In fact, the grip ‘n grin ritual of having the members take pictures with stars at the end of press conferences is another antiquated ritual that should be retired.
Message for the HFPA: If you want better press, then be better press. Simple as that.
I don’t disagree with Davis on his premise, that the hirings alone will not solve the problem they want solved – because I don’t think any film awards can meet the new standards. The reason being, you are dealing with power as the desired goal but the road getting there is about something ephemeral and subjective as our relationship to film and art. But what is the problem they want solved? What is the end goal? What is the point of any of film awards? The problem is with the members and the membership, it has been said, but what happens if they make all of those changes, add new members, do whatever is required of them to justify their annual showcase of contenders en route to Oscar and they still don’t pick the “right” nominees? I’ll never forget when I was part of the Women’s Journalist Film Critics groups and they chose Argo over Zero Dark Thirty. It is not always the case that voters will comply with a political desire for change. Why, because art is, well, art. It doesn’t always or necessarily follow that black members will always choose black films or black-themed films. Will that be the requirement for new members?
Missing in this conversation, and in Davis’ piece, is what the end result would look like. What would be an idea Golden Globes? Or BAFTA? Or Oscars?
It’s a reality that for decades Hollywood sold stories that ignored oppressed and neglected groups or even mocked them. But that isn’t true anymore. Our art now has been cleansed of any kind of potentially offensive content, probably to the point of making it less like art and more like a corrective guidebook for how we’re all supposed to be. Art is a way to expose truths in ways people can’t or don’t expect, but it can’t really do its job if it is being monitored and disciplined for correctness at the same time.
Ralph Fiennes talks about the aspect of monitoring or policing art in a recent interview with the Telegraph:
“I get worried if it’s decided that certain classical plays are irrelevant. I think often there’s a superficial reading – Restoration drama is ‘colonialist, hierarchical, quasi racist’. But they’re just plays. You can turn them on their head. The danger is of labelling stuff. These texts are there – so pull the humanity out of them, pull out the stuff that’s relevant. If you’re going ‘it doesn’t tick these boxes’, you’re lowering the portcullis of judgement before you’ve even got into the room with it. I think that’s troubling.”
He praises artistic free-spirits from other disciplines – citing Picasso and Henry Miller. “We need to have those voices that risk being offensive. How sad if we sat on any expressive voice that could shake the scenery, that could get inside us and make us angry and turn us on. I would hate a world where the freedom of that kind of voice is stifled.”
There is a very high likelihood that Fiennes will be made to apologize for having said what he actually thought instead of speaking in a way that won’t offend, which is how 99% of people in the public eye speak. Or maybe no one will care. Either way, he seems to be saying what a lot of artists probably are thinking but can’t say. If we can’t have a conversation how can we ever reach agreement or anything?
Another piece from Persuasion talks about how the book world is changing too, called “Beware of Books! A new moralism is gripping the literary world, treating grownups like children.”
It starts this way:
Literature used to be a place for transgressive ideas, a place to question taboos, and seek naked insights into humanity. It no longer is.
Critics, writers and publishers are today enforcing a new vision that treats books less as a vehicle for artistic expression than as a product to be inspected for safety and wholesomeness. In the past few years, this has only gained momentum, with much of what is written about literature, old and new, becoming a series of moral pronouncements.
And it ends this way:
None of this is to say that the inequities of our time can’t be addressed by other means—through economics and elections, through debate and compromise. But we must ask ourselves: Is this frenzy for censure, moralizing, and a seemingly endless expansion of the definition of harm, how we’ll correct current disparities and historical wrongs? Is this how we intend to talk about art from now on? Which is to say, we’d just talk politics, and hardly mention art at all.
The Oscars, the Globes, all of film awards are, for the foreseeable future, in the grips of a new moralism. There is no doubt about that. It springs from the need to be good. Goodness is the currency. But no human can be good all of the time. Sooner or later, their badness has to come out one way or another. Right now, that way is in chasing down anyone who commits a thoughtcrime, or says something offensive, or disagrees with the status quo. This is everywhere on the American Left right now, from politics to art and yes, to the Oscars.
Art has survived through phases of persecution, paranoia and great social upheaval. It survives because it has to. Humans will always need it as a way to relieve pressure, to expose hidden truths and to point out hypocrisy. I worry that so many young ones are growing up now believing they can and should police art the way they police their favorite influencers: watching everything they do to make sure it is 100% “correct.”
The broad prediction is that it is probably going to be a painful next two months. It will be painful in a lot of ways for a lot of different reasons, not the least of which is that so many of us are still trapped inside with only social media algorithms to bounce ideas off of.
And now, onto the reason you clicked on this link. Oscar predictions.
Predicting the Oscars is probably not going to be hard this year. The choices are limited as it is. There is a frontrunner and likely that frontrunner will carry through to the end of the season, April 25. I expect, when the Oscars are finally done, there will be a heavy sigh of relief that they (the awards community writ large) will be off the hot seat. Hopefully by this time next year we will have more than Twitter to shape our world view, our conversation, and our community.
Best Picture
1. Nomadland (Globe/Critics Choice winner Picture and Director, Scripter winner, PGA/DGA nominee)
2. Minari
3. Promising Young Woman
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Judas and the Black Messiah
6. Mank
7. Sound of Metal
8. The Father
Best Director
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (DGA)
2. David Fincher, Mank (DGA)
3. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (DGA)
4. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (DGA)
5. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Best Actor
1. Chadwick Boseman
2. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
4. Steven Yeun, Minari
5. Gary Oldman, Mank
Best Actress
1. Andra Day, The United States v. Billie Holiday
1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Mulligan is coming in with more nominations, Andra Day only has the one for Best Actress. But Day’s work is powerful enough that it could pull an upset, potentially. She won the Globe already but is not nominated for the SAG or the BAFTA. Mulligan is nominated for the SAG but not the BAFTA. So it’s a mess. And if it ain’t, it’ll do ’til the mess gets here.
Best Supporting Actor
1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
3. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actress
1. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
2. Maria Bakalova, ‘Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
4. Olivia Colman, The Father
5. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The White Tiger
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
5. The Father
Best Original Screenplay
1. Promising Young Woman
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Sound of Metal
Best Costume Design
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ann Roth
2. Mank, Trish Summerville
3. Emma, Alexandra Byrne
4. Mulan, Bina Daigeler
5. Pinocchio
Best Original Score
1. Soul, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste
2. Mank, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
3. Minari, Emile Mosseri
4. Da 5 Bloods, Terence Blanchard
5. News of the World, James Newton Howard
Best Sound
1. Sound of Metal
2. Soul
3. Greyhound
4. Mank
5. News of the World
Best Film Editing
1. Sound of Metal
2. Nomadland
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Promising Young Woman
5. The Father
Best Cinematography
1. Mank
2. Nomadland
3. Judas and the Black Messiah
4. News of the World
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Hillbilly Elegy
4. Emma
5. Pinocchio
Best Production Design
1. Mank
2. Tenet
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4. News of the World
5. The Father
Best Visual Effects*
1. Tenet
2. Love and Monsters
3. The Midnight Sky
4. Mulan, Sean Faden,
5. The One and Only Ivan
*No clue. No Best Picture nominees. But Tenet is the only one with both Prod and VFX.
Best Documentary Feature
1. Crip Camp
2. Collective
3. My Octopus Teacher
4. Time
5. The Mole Agent
Best Animated Feature Film
1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Over the Moon
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Best International Feature Film
1. Another Round, Denmark
2. Better Days, Hong Kong
3. Collective, Romania
4. The Man Who Sold His Skin, Tunisia
5. Quo Vadis, Aida?(Bosnia and Herzegovina
Best Documentary Short Subject
1. A Love Song for Latasha
2. Colette
3. A Concerto Is a Conversation
4. Do Not Split
5. Hunger Ward
Best Animated Short Film
1. If Anything Happens I Love You
2. Burrow
3. Opera
4. Genius Loci
5. Yes-People
Best Live Action Short Film
1. Feeling Through
2. The Letter Room
3. The Present
4. Two Distant Strangers
5. White Eye
Best Original Song
1. Speak Now, One Night in Miami
2. Fight for You, Judas and the Black Messiah
3. Hear My Voice, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Húsavík, Eurovision Song Contest
5. Io Si, Seen, The Life Ahead
“It’s a reality that for decades Hollywood sold stories that ignored oppressed and neglected groups or even mocked them. But that isn’t true anymore. Our art now has been cleansed of any kind of potentially offensive content, probably to the point of making it less like art and more like a corrective guidebook for how we’re all supposed to be. Art is a way to expose truths in ways people can’t or don’t expect, but it can’t really do its job if it is being monitored and disciplined for correctness at the same time.”
Wow, that paragraph went downhill fast.
I’ve finally seen all the films in a category!
My personal director ballot of my preferences would look like:
1. Zhao
2. Vinterberg
3. Fennell
4. Chung
5. Fincher
Would it be unreasonable to think Pinocchio will win both of its categories?
I mean, it surely can’t not win Make-up. And that could also get it checked off for costumes.
I’ve thought about that. But I think it being nommed for 2 categories makes it higher priority to be seen and voted on for Hair/Make-Up, at least. I think that category is a toss-up. I see cases for Ma, Hillbilly and Pinocchio almost equally.
For Ma, it’s good work and another chance to reward the film; prestige.
For Hillbilly, it’s a chance to reward Glenn, in a way; and it is showy.
For Pinocchio, it IS the showiest. That often wins. And the costume nom helps.
I just don’t think that it has the buzz to actually win, it’s not an English language movie which will probably be a hurdle for people and probably few members outside the design branches have even seen the movie at this point. Also, has anyone here actually seen the movie? Something makes me think that Garrone might be up to his old tricks (which is why I personally skipped it when I had a chance to see it and will probably avoid it in the future as well) and if he is, I wouldn’t be surprised if the movie just turns people away to the point that they don’t care about how good the design is
Its studio must have worked double-duty to have it nominated in 2 categories! I think its stronger in Makeup and Hairstyling than in Costume Design. I have just watched it and thought both nods were deserved. Better than Tale of Tales. The MUHS branch may go behind it because of the importance of the physical makeup in the film (opting to have it over a traditional VFX) but I’m not sure if the other branches would vote for it even if they saw it. I only got interested watching because I liked the costumes when I checked the trailer and glad that actually enjoyed the film. If it got those nods, I think it also almost got in Production Design.
I don’t care, as long as something, anything, beats Hillbilly Elegy and its ‘here’s what we think poor people look like’ attempt concocting a new face for Glenn Close.
One knock AGAINST Pinocchio — for foreign films, the nomination is often considered the reward in this category. Border, A Man Called Ove, Il Divo, the 100 Year Old Man…., Barney’s Version. All films from another country nominated in this category — and all of them lost.
I hate HE but Close looks exactly like the real woman. Google it.
The Best Actress situation, based on all quantifiable stats I know of that have already been decided this year:
Since I had to look at these anyway, for a somewhat unrelated project…
1. Mulligan:
– no actress since 2003 has won the Oscar in lead after losing the Globe; before that, Halle Berry and Frances McDormand (for Fargo), who both won NBR (like Mulligan), as well as Susan Sarandon (who won nothing before SAG – all three won SAG).
This is the only stat I could find (that doesn’t involve the now-juried BAFTA outcome, which I left out of the stats for all others, as well, even though it would have hurt Day and Davis too) working against her. And there are actually several exceptions, as can be seen, even if none in the last 18 years.
2. McDormand:
– no actress has won the Oscar in lead after losing both at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice since Halle Berry in 2002 (who wasn’t even actually nominated for the Critics Choice, which had only 3 slots in Best Actress that year, and thus she didn’t actually lose a final vote there – also, Berry won NBR, which McDormand hasn’t, though she did win NSFC); before that, Susan Sarandon in 1996 (no nominees at the Critics Choice that year, only the winner was announced).
This stat seems marginally more damaging than Mulligan’s, but Mulligan has the doubt cast upon her stats situation by the BAFTA snub, so it all hinges on that, who we consider the favorite at this point. SAG should decide, as losing that would cause major stats issues for either of them.
3. Davis:
– no actress has won the Oscar in lead since 1996 without winning either the Globe, the Critics Choice (Winslet won both in supporting for The Reader) or NBR first; one should probably also not that Dead Man Walking, the movie for which Susan Sarandon won in 1996, was nominated for Best Director, as well as four Oscars in total, including another acting nomination, and thus may well have gotten into picture with 8 or more slots available (which isn’t a part of this stat but could be telling), and the previous exception apart from that is not even as recent as Geraldine Page in 1986 (because she won NBR), but rather it’s Katharine Hepburn in 1982 (almost 40 years ago, and with no Critics Choice award available to win);
– no year ever when there were more than 5 Best Picture nominees at the Oscars (0/24 or 0/23, depending on whether one wants to count the first ever Oscars or not) have both lead acting winners failed to be in a Best Picture nominee (1932 comes closest, when the Best Actress winner wasn’t and there was a tie for Best Actor, with only one of the two being in a Best Picture nominee); only a problem for Davis if Boseman wins;
– no movie not nominated for Best Picture has ever won both Best Actor and Best Actress (also only a problem if Boseman wins – I think Sontag Twist first mentioned this stat); the only movies to have won both of those awards are, from most to least recent: As Good as It Gets, The Silence of the Lambs, On Golden Pond, Coming Home, Network, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest and It Happened One Night.
Her win stat seems incredibly prohibitive (of course, it will seem less so if she does win SAG, but even then it may well come back to bite her), plus she may well end up having the Chadwick Boseman issue too, so she’s clearly no higher than third. Perhaps a distant third.
4. Kirby:
– no actress has won the Oscar in lead since 1996 without winning either the Globe, the Critics Choice or NBR first;
– no actress has won the Oscar in lead since 2001 without either winning NBR (plus placing top 2 at LAFCA and top 3 at NSFC – Kirby was a no-show at all of these, as well as NYFCC), or being in a movie with multiple Oscar nominations; even the ones before that which were lone nominees, going back at least as far as 1970, had, at a minimum, a top 3 placing at one of the big critics awards (Kathy Bates in Misery – NSFC; Jessica Lange won LAFCA for Blue Sky and was top 3 at NSFC, Jodie Foster won NBR for The Accused and was top 4 at NYFCC);
– no year ever when there were more than 5 Best Picture nominees at the have both lead acting winners failed to be in a Best Picture nominee;
She has more or less the same issues as Davis, except worse, because she’s the only nominee from her movie.
5. Day:
– nobody has won the Oscar in this category with just the Globe win (which is the only major precursor she’s going to get, not being nominated at SAG or BAFTA), at least since all of the current ones (SAG, BAFTA, GG, BFCA, NBR, NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC) have been awarding together (in fact, since Katharine Hepburn, in 1982); the only other actress to win just the drama Globe, out of these eight, in this 25-year span was Sharon Stone for Casino – she, too, was nominated at the Oscars (and lost); of course, there have been several Globe winners for comedy in that situation;
– all Best Actress winners in the SAG era were at least nominated there;
– no actress has won the Oscar in lead since 2001 without either winning NBR (plus placing top 2 at LAFCA and top 3 at NSFC – Day was also a no-show at all of these plus NYFCC) or being in a movie with multiple Oscar nominations;
– no actress has won the Oscar in lead since at least 1995 (as far as my research went) without winning either the Critics Choice or at least one major/regional critics prize (no need to even include NBR) first; the ones that didn’t win one of the big ones (BFCA/LAFCA/NSFC/NYFCC): Emma Stone (won Phoenix, Detroit, Utah, North Carolina, Venice, etc.), Nicole Kidman (won Las Vegas), Halle Berry (won Phoenix, as well as NBR, the Golden Bear in Berlin, etc.), Gwyneth Paltrow (won Las Vegas, Kansas, Florida, etc.), Helen Hunt (won Florida – as well as the Satellite award) and Susan Sarandon (won Kansas);
– no actress has won the Oscar in lead despite being snubbed by both the St. Louis and Washington D.C. Area film critics in the category (16/16 – Day was snubbed by both);
– no year ever when there were more than 5 Best Picture nominees at the have both lead acting winners failed to be in a Best Picture nominee.
Her stats problems seem pretty much insurmountable.
***
I may re-post all of this at some point.
You rock stats! Since I’m a narrative freak, my hope for Mulligan win stems from that AMPAS noms are much less pandering than some other precursor noms. No mediocrities such as Ma’s, Regina King, etc despite pressure to include them or non-factors such as most of BAFTA Jury gimmick. So fingers crossed that yet undecided wins are fair.
Thanks! 🙂 True, the Academy has always been the most resistant to these things – with the possible exception of BAFTA…
Granted that Boseman will win for Ma Rainey, I think Netflix awards campaign should aim for Kirby’s win if they aren’t winning BP for Mank. Lead Actress still seems to be an open race and since Mank looks to be losing the winning momentum, then Netflix might as well focus on getting their other bets for an open top-tier category like Lead Actress. Kirby won at Venice anyway.
There’s so little passion for Kirby’s movie, though… Might be a harder sell than Viola, even with Boseman winning. Could also maybe lead to their splitting the Netflix vote somewhat, so to speak. 🙂 (I doubt the impact of such things is ever too great but, in an open category, a few votes could matter.) Since Viola has been the one that’s been more in the conversation for the win, thus far.
Makes sense. I don’t see any other name other than Mulligan or McDormand being read out when they open the envelope. The strike against McDormand is that she already had 2 leading Oscars. So that should favor Mulligan, but I haven’t seen ProYoWo. If her performance/movie is too off-putting for AMPAS, then the edge would go to McDormand.
Yeah, it’s a close one… McDormand’s performance is a bit too unshowy/restrained (unlike in Three Billboards and I would say less showy than even her performance in Fargo) to win, too, no? And I don’t think Carey’s should be off-putting to many people. However anti-#metoo or sick of it one is, if one gives this movie a chance, one can’t possibly not sympathize with her character, I would think. (Could be wrong.) The movie also isn’t preachy at all. I guess it (both the movie and the performance) could be divisive, at worst, but that shouldn’t be a problem if there’s passion. That’s the question. Is there really passion for this movie (if there is, then there surely is also passion for her performance) within the industry, like there is online? It’s probably still too early to tell, based on just the Oscar and guild nominations…
If voters weren’t off-put by giving the Oscar to an actor playing the Joker, I doubt they’ll get their tail feathers twisted by Promising Young Woman.
Very good point.
There were other factors: 1) Joaquin was overdue, 2) it’s more acceptable for a man to be “twisted” and 3) Joker was a b.o. phenomenon which meant it resonated somehow with the masses. That said, I haven’t seen ProYoWo so it’s hard for me to fully judge Mulligan’s chances.
Were AD’s nominations (i.e., the results of the users’ preferential ballots, etc.) ever posted?
Not yet, looking forward to read about them.
The saddest part of this award season on AD is Sasha’s complete transformation from left wing warrior to right wing sympathiser.
In a time when the right literally stormed the Capitol & tried to subvert a democratic election, she rails against the left.
For years she pushed for inclusion of diverse contenders, now they are only get recognised because of their diversity.
Twitter is evil even though it’s a lot of ordinary people finally given a voice against the establishment.
She even uses the words of the Right like the ridiculous cancel culture, which basically means Right wing things need preservation whereas left wing things must be crushed.
Her pieces are literally unreadable and alienating. I mostly scroll past now, it’s mainly worth coming here for the comments only.
I don’t think she’s doing it for click bait or for reactions, I think she really means it. It’s sad.
What’s even sadder is this Oscarcast could be the most milquetoast ceremony with hardly any political content, and the author of this article will still rail at how much it offended saintly hinterland real Americans
How dare you attack right wing voices, especially after they’ve contributed so much to American culture like…uh, like…gimme a second…uh…I’m going to go watch the tournament. I’ll get back to you.
She never recovered from the attacks she got from championing Green Book. That season really was the turning point. I even agreed with her back then that the film was being maliciously attacked by some people because they wanted their favorite to win. But to go from that to what she’s being doing lately just because some twitterati were mean to her on the internet is such an overreaction. It just reeks of irrational resentment.
And Green Book WON so why all the angst? Big mean Twitter lost
She believes that big mean Twitter stuck back and won with 1917 losing to Parasite.
Sasha is a mature adult who understands politics ; you seemingly don’t cos you sound like another juvenile Leftist burning with the zeal of the converted
I don’t get how Youn is the frontrunner. Minari could be like Lady Bird and get away with no wins. Why do we think it’s winning something? Bakalova by winning the Critics Choice and being nominated for a Globe is surely ahead of her.
I think people are just freaked out by the type of performance Bakalova is giving to the extent that they’re just waiting for what happens at SAG. I feel like people will turn to whoever wins SAG.
The supporting categories are historically better for nominations and wins for comedic performances. So I think she has a good chance. But that category is too crazy to call without seeing who wins SAG.
Current thoughts:
BP – Nomadland – feels like a Shape of Water type win. Director, sure thing. Passion.
BD – Zhao, Nomadland.
Actor – Boseman, but I have a feeling that Hopkins could upset (The Father hit strong on nom morning).
Actress – Mulligan, but not positive.
S.Actor – Kaluuya, and I think Stanfield emboldens that win.
S.Actress – Youn. Minari is loved, but I could oddly see Close, too.
Original – Minari, PYW close 2nd for me.
Adapted – The Father, Nomadland may “seem” too empty to some.
Editing – TTotC7, could be Sound of Metal (with correlating Sound win).
Cinematography – Nomadland.
Production Design – Mank.
Costumes – Emma.
Hair-Make-Up – Ma Rainey, banking on them going for prestige over Hillbilly or deserving Pinocchio.
Sound – Sound of Metal.
FX – Tenet, they’ll go prestige + the correlating Production Design nom trend.
Score – Soul.
Song – Speak Now, ONIM. Husavik or Io Si could surprise.
Animated – Soul.
Foreign – Another Round. If it was the old method, Quo Vadis, Aida could’ve upset.
Documentary – Collective, but could be any of them.
Nomadland – 3 wins.
Minari – 2
Soul – 2
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – 2
TTotC7 – 1
Promising Young Woman – 1
The Father – 1
Mank – 1
Sound of Metal – 1
Judas & the Black Messiah – 1
One Night in Miami – 1
Emma. – 1
Tenet – 1
Another Round – 1
Collective – 1
Oh and on another note.. speaking of the films that been undermined in awards season…to me and i sure lot of you the most stunning, unexpected and surprising film on low budget that became an absolute phenomena in way no small time film has taken shape of being one of most unexpected event films that redefined the sci- fi- semi politic- thriller genre has been District 9 and i think it usefyl to put spoitlight on films that been unjustly snubbed…ok D9 was by far new bold, potentially in awards season eyes you could say very unknown uneasy territory…as blurring of a very real political history transcended into gritty sci- fi realism with yes a dollop of make believe that was believable cos world it was set..yet it did not shy away from the rawness the characters endured esp. the ‘prawns’ it the type of powerful, soulful mesmerising and inspired bold courageous filmmaking that the Academy and awards season ought to learn to embrace as a big time contender..and i know there huge amount of d9 fans out there so i got news fgor you.. Neil Blomkamp has given his strongest signal…looong time coming that a District 10 will definitely happen just recenmtly returned to this project after exploring as you know mixed i think underrated films like Elysium and Chappie…but nevertheless in this weblink below he confirmed District 10 was always his overwhelming preference to do…here the link and it looks like a sequel ironically as ‘Christopher’ says from this time noiw ‘in 2- 3 years time max’ that be amusing and ironic indeed ey? and if District 10 happens it give serious pause for thought for the Academy before ruling it out just cos social media trolls say so ey?
https://www.looper.com/342929/district-10-release-date-cast-plot/
Relative to the last 10! 10 years of oscars..this years pre-ordained almost like ‘pre convieved in a socialist type science lab’ and grown out of a petri dish ‘ type film is Nomadland…but clearly to reinforce what i nickname it as..indeed with sooo little support and far deeper connections a overwhelming majority of you demonstrate you can engage at a deeper level with the alternate contenders (but must be noted the numerouis number of you that relative to other races in last 10 years bemoan even more so than prior years) that automated disadvantage that served to what large groups of you feel ought to be a deserved oscar contender that do not make the cut.
So i have to say and regret to warn awards season in its entirety embrace the film that has underwhelmed the film going public as reflective of most of your summations here in this i still feel pointless awards season that i adamant i not only one here wondering why not postpone awards season till at leastr end of year? may just be something to game for the sorry sod organisers of awards season as a whole ey? esp. the Academy.
The net result of this farce force feeding us the film audience before big screen cinemas are active at pre- pandemic levels or least 70% occupancy per day in the cineplexes here in oz and the US… is inevitably as Sasha points out..the true potential of those films- mostly dont make the cut in part to be formidable oscar contenders which deserve to make the cut like ‘Greyhounds’, ‘the outpost’, and ‘Tenet’… is that the artistic originality and standard of contenders is further compromised and weakened by inviting and encouraging as Sasha points out rightly…strengthening and galvanizing the intimidating apalling voices from the darkest corners of twitter and farcebook etc.,..yea well done Academy you already sabotaged your own chances of respectability a record 2 months before awards season begins! by stubbornly stupidly as the ignorant Globes and the Biblically increasingly politically correct pretentious BAFTAS demonstrate increasingly year on year..just does not matter what we think..but argument that it never did in awards season eyes is not true..the far too generous inlet and role of online media has hijacked the integrity of the awards season in our eyes…and hence frankly in contrast to other awards season i can remember in a long timew…you are left with ONLY out of 9 contenders or is it 8? see? no coherent consistency to number of best pic contenders each year too! ONLY frankly, 3 out of 8 worthy contenders that the film going public would back in:
This year that is in no particular order: Mank, Promising Young Woman and of course the Trial of the Chicago 7. This to lot of us…reflective from ever increasing disconnect between most you what you feel is best picture that awards season has undermined unjustly once again..would have to be already most farcical weak oscar field on balance in my memory and number of us..last year was like even i approved or almost most of contenders awards season backed in…but this year it only ONLY 3 contenders at the MOST. Now this ought to ring alarm bells to awards season willingness as Sasha alludes to that the dominion and allowance and the academy’s weak resustance or lackthereof to the tentacles and toxic politics of social media is what is diminishing the appeal and care and worth of awards season to us
Tenet sucked. Stop trying to make it happen .
Can you explain in what way Nomadland is a socialist film?
I will be happy with any result as long as Nomadland gets ZERO wins. Is that possible?
No :/
Hopefully
My predictions for the winners o the 93rd oscars
Best Picture
Promising Young Woman
Best Director
Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman
Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Actress
Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman
Best Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Supporting Actress
Your-Yen-Jeong in Minari
Original Screenplay
Promising Young Woman
Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland
Film Editing
Sound of Metal
Sound Design
Sound of Metal
Cinematography
Judas and the Black Messiah
Costume Design
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Production Design
Mank
Visual Effects
Tenet
Original Song
Speak Now from One Night in Miami
Original Score
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for Soul
Animated Feature
Soul
Animated Short Film
Opera
Live Action Short Film
The Present
Documentary Feature
Crip camp
Well I watched Nomadland last week and you, sir(madam,other), are no Chinatown, Nashville, Last Picture Show. Not seeing the nuances that make a film a film to return to time and again.
Nomadland is a cut above the usual rubbish that wins Best Picture like Green Book & Argo but by god it’s overrated. Does it really have to win EVERY BD & BP award.
At least AACTA had the good sense to award BP to Promising Young Woman.
It’s not even as good as Borat. High five! And by the way, all those classics you mentioned lost Best Picture
Reposting this here from an older article with more new thoughts 😉
A couple thoughts:
1. Sasha, someone said this in a really condescending way within the last week or so, but upon thinking about it…I wonder if getting off Twitter would be useful to you. I feel all the social media’s have been pretty toxic over the last year that I only log on every couple of days or so, just to keep my mind in a better place. I just wonder how different your take on all of this would be. It could prove to be not only healthy, but also refreshing. I love all your writings, and agree with your take, mostly…but you don’t realize how much more peace of mind you can have by getting off social media in general.
2.I agree with most of these predictions. But I do feel like almost all the “races” are closer than they seem—outside of Best Actor and Director. Anyone can win in all the other acting categories. There are obvious front runners, but they aren’t so far ahead that they can’t be beaten. But I love that! Every year we complain that it’s the same winner over and over and never surprising…..for the first time, in my Oscar watching history, we may have some really interesting surprises—even if we don’t like the choices—it is still exciting to not know what to expect.
3. I am thrilled that there is an in person show! I have been privately ranting about this, because there are ways to be safe! It will be a start to normalcy and that’s a really beautiful thing.
4. My preference of the nominees in the main categories:
Picture: Minari
Director: Fincher
Actress: Mulligan
Actor: Riz
Sup. Actor: Raci
Sup. Actress: Close
O. Screenplay: Minari
A. Screenplay: Nomadland
5. I haven’t seen all the nominees yet. I’ve been trying to keep my mind in a healthy place and some of these movies feel to dark that I don’t want to trigger anxiety. So my judgment is limited. Hoping it will get better soon cause I love film and the Oscars and I like to have my opinions about everything
6. The HFPA being slimey with how they have mishandled films by and about POC is really upsetting. That to me shows who they really are and what they are all about. Diversifying their membership though doesn’t fix their problem, it may help for optics sake, but it’s hard to change people that have serious integrity issues.
7. I really feel that the way forward, even though it is easier said than done, is to stop all the labeling. Every time we mention Chloe Zhao we gotta add that she is a female Asian director—instead of just calling her what she is. A FILM DIRECTOR. We don’t look at other professions and call them by their sex and race— “my female Asian doctor” doesn’t that sound ridiculous? So why do we do this in this realm of profession? It’s condescending and I think some directors, actors, writers, and such are starting to resent the idea that they are being labeled as such and being judged off of it. It does nothing to this situation we’ve found ourselves in. It makes us look at film and art through the wrong lens. It’s building more walls than tearing down.
That’s all for now.
African-American Colin Powell, a four-star general who went on to become Secretary of State, made a telling observation at a dinner in his honor back when he was awarded his fourth military star. He said that, in light of his new rank, he’d recently been asked, Do you want to be called a “Black” four-star general?
Powell replied that if he’d gone out on the street that night and stolen a car, his race would most certainly would have been included in any police radio call about him to hasten his apprehension. The same would be true if he’d assaulted someone or sold drugs.
His race wouldn’t have been overlooked, forgotten or left out. So, he said of his newest elevation in the military, Don’t stop now!
The truth is, this is not and has never been a white nation. Nor a straight one. Nor one where males had all the brains and thus deserved all the power.
When Ruth Bader Ginsburg was asked how many women justices she needed to see seated on the Supreme Court for her to be assuaged, she replied, All nine. For two hundred years all nine were men and everyone thought that was fine.
When it comes to the Oscars, we’ve never announced, for some 90 years, “The five straight white male nominees for Best Director are . . . .” Though we well could have done so. (George Cukor would be an exception, but he never came out publicly.)
If Chloe Zhao wins Best Director, not to call to the world’s attention her ethnic heritage and her gender turns her win into a fortunate accident. Hard-earned owing to her skill, but happenstance when it comes to her ethnicity and gender.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Her rise is no accident. Ask her. And the violent attacks on Asians going on across the country right now, up to and including murder, sure as hell aren’t happenstance.
I could live with these winners. Mank will lose cinematography to Nomadland. The saddest category this year for me, by far, is visual effects.
It makes sense that a year in which almost everything was watched on TV or tablet would be a weak year for visual effects.
I wrote this just yesterday re: Best actress (sorry it’s a little long, so I don’t blame you if you don’t read):
I went into the year convinced that Viola Davis would win for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, but when the film landed the consensus was that she doesn’t have enough screen time for a Best Actress win. Davis has won once for supporting but many feel she is overdue for that Best Actress win.
Then, Promising Young Woman picked up steam and rolled all the way to a Best Picture and Best Director nomination combo along with Carey Mulligan’s amazing performance. Mulligan has only been nominated once, but many feel she is overdue for a win.
Most recently, we saw Andra Day give what I consider the best performance of the year in The United States vs. Billie Holiday for which she won the Golden Globe Best Actress. However, the film is quite flawed, evidenced by her performance being its only nomination. Day is a first time actress and nominee.
Accordingly, many penciled Day in the fifth nomination slot, including me, but few have pegged her to win — opting instead for Mulligan.
Also, Day did not get nominated for SAG, all but ensuring that either Davis or Mulligan wins there — with most opting for Mulligan.
Lastly, because of the new nomination and voting process, BAFTA nominations are a mess, and I am discounting them entirely in my thought process.
I am having a real difficult time in the year we have had not seeing voters vote for a black actress when to date Halle Berry remains the only black actress to have won a Best Actress Oscar. So:
1) SAG and Oscar could go to Davis
3) SAG could go to Davis, Oscar could go to Mulligan or Day
3) SAG and Oscar could go to Mulligan
4) SAG could go to Mulligan, Oscar to Day or Davis
I can’t see SAG deciding not to give the award to a black woman this year of all years. Ditto the academy. So I’m seeing Mulligan’s win as less likely.
SAG-AFTRA are American unions and Viola Davis is very popular with them. She has won SAG 5 times. She has the Film & TV voters and MRBB is also up for Best Ensemble. AMPAS gave Renee Zellweger 2 Oscars.
Winning 5 times speaks against winning 6 times. No urgency and they are awarding Boseman anyway so Ma will win something.
And Ma is a supporting performance competing against 4 lead performances
Ma is a co-lead in 1h34 minute ensemble film competing against leads in non-ensemble 2h films. They are all leads but screen time is not comparable.
SAG doesn’t care how many times someone has won. The problem with Carey Mulligan – she’s struggling in places that should have been easy for her – GG, BAFTA.
GG was where Davis could have won even easier than Mulligan. She has a traditional role that won 1000 times before, including last year (Zelly) and the year before (Malek). She had the #HPFAsowhite #BLM narrative. Yet HFPA awarded a total unknown over her (in the same type of role and with the same narrative!) despite being starfuckers deluxe while BAFTA Jury nominated 4 black actresses, 3 of them barely known to non-Brits, over her too. So Mulligan is not the only one that isn’t winning in places where she should easily win or at least get nominated. And she has an excuse cause her role and movie are not to everyone’s taste. Davis is coming from more accessible movie and role not to mention political narrative that drives the voting. And yet she hasn’t won shit so far.
But PYW was nominated for GG Drama. And Mulligan couldn’t even score a nod with BAFTA where she should have been the hometown favorite. Best Actress could be poised for an upset with different people winning the industry precursors.
Best Actress/Actor don’t depend on their movie nominations or lack thereof. And BAFTA was just BAFTA Jury. That also snubbed Davis who may not have been homey fave but was favored by political narrative – which BAFTA Jury decided to honor by nominating 4 black and 2 white actresses.
If I could make an educated guess, no one likes anyone enough to create a sweep and no one has strong enough narrative to create a sweep. In this particular category. It’s a mess because no one knows whom to vote and there isn’t a critical mass behind one like in Actor and Supporting Actor.
“Best Actress/Actor don’t depend on their movie nominations or lack thereof.”
They definitely do. 🙂 (See my longer post at the top of this thread for details!) Even more so than supporting. But the jury thing mostly invalidates the Mulligan snub as a strong argument.
Again, the jury, please read up on it
She couldn’t score a nod with the BAFTA jury of 12 (which wasn’t even 50% BAFTA, in fact, and was inclusion-oriented) – probably a key difference…
What do you mean by that ; why wasn’t mulligan, a Brit actress nominated for bAFTA ?
In the acting and directing categories this year they used, for nominations, a jury of 12 people to select the nominees from the long lists, of which only half, at most, I think, were BAFTA voters. And apparently when juries are involved weird snubs happen a lot… Mulligan’s snub isn’t statistically relevant, in this context. It might still mean something, but so might any other random critics group result and we don’t use those to predict the Oscars, so…
A Jury is very vulnerable to pressure from PC and the BLM cult .. how many folks usually pick the noms for bAFTA ?
Oh, and I forgot to mention they were also specifically picked to go for inclusion – race, sex, etc.; not an advantage to Mulligan, even though she was British. Unfortunately, unless they change the rules again, they will do this in years to come, too. But, until last year, it was, I believe, the same as at the Oscars: the branch in question (acting branch, in this case) picked the nominees. Then the whole membership voted for the winners (which is still the case even with the new rules). I’m not sure how the long list (of 15) was picked – which is how Day missed there. But, whatever the system used there, she can’t have been at a disadvantage, so her snub looks very bad.
I’d guess that Davis is Mulligan’s closest competitor ? she’s already won before
I’m more worried about McDormand but yes, it could be Davis…
Not sure why it’s so hard for people to grasp the BAFTA jury system for best actress. Carey would have been nominated by membership vote. It’s not a miss if it’s a different process.
Big stats going against Davis and especially Day. See my longer post at the top of this thread for details!
I know, but it doesn’t feel like a year where stats win.
This is a good argument. But, generally speaking, even in those years, it’s the more easily-beatable stats that fail, not the ones that have held through several such years before and never faltered…
So who do you see winning ? Mulligan or her from nomadland ?
Yes – Mulligan or McDormand, say the stats. Slight edge for Mulligan, SAG should decide (although the SAG winner won’t be locked or anything, either).
I get the sense that Mulligan will win that Oscar ; it was a good performance and has a strong element of PC to it that chimes with the zeitgeist ..and it was nominated for both BP and BD .. I don’t think they’ll go for Mcdormand again , especially if Nomad wins BD and maybe BP .. they like to spread the oscars out
Yup, logically speaking Mulligan has made the most sense all the way since she first became a contender. But that doesn’t always get it done – hope she does!
The Father is also not in last place in adapted screenplay.
Should be winning, IMO
I’m predicting it to win
As am I.
I think The Father wins something. And if it is not Hopkins or Colman in a surprise, I feel like Adapted honors the film and Zeller at the same time.
Quo Vadis, Aida? is definitely not in 5th place. If anything it’s right behind Another Round.
The order of the foreign-language, doc short and live action short nominees is identical to an alphabetical order. I wonder if Sasha took these from something like GoldDerby (which is at least in my opinion a completely valid approach at this point), where people have admitted often especially the short nominees are ranked alphabetically because the order before any predictions is alphabetical and people start predicting what GoldDerby claims to be “the frontrunner” and thus rank the nominees in alphabetical order
Quo Vadis, Aida? is a film I can’t stop thinking about weeks after watching it. With a 97 on Metacritic, it’s the best reviewed film of the year. And for me the best film of the year. I wish everyone gets a chance to watch this movie.
On Gold Derby it’s second place as well. So it’s just laziness. I wish there was more focus on the international foreign race on this site.
Four of my five favorite films of the International Feature 15 shortlist made it. The best? Fairly easy. Had Quo Vadis, Aida? received a release in the US, it should be a contender for at least 5 other Oscars: Picture, Directing, Actress, Original Screenplay, and Editing.
Lol, good point
Also, having seen the film, I don’t think AR wins.
I have been saying this since I watched Quo Vadis, Aida? – If people actually watched both films, there is no way Another Round would win. Since everyone votes, Another Round will get it. It’s like comparing, let’s say, The King’s Speech and The Social Network. Both are great films but there are layers in The Social Network that The King’s Speech never reaches. Or Nomadland losing to Trial. They are both great but one is deeper. The other is more audience-friendly and populist.
Another Round will win because has most hype. Quality does not matter. The voters will not even watch all of them.
Some voters won’t watch any of them!
Some voters will try to watch Another Round and doze off and vote for it anyway.
I think most critics/audiences would say that Quo Vaids, Aida is the clear best film of the 5 … if they see it. Since that likely won’t be the case, Another Round will likely win this easily.
I don’t really understand how what Davis wrote has anything to do who happened to get nominated which is the context that Sasha seems to discuss it in. The point seems to be about the makeup of HFPA’s membership, them offering solutions to complicated problems that express no real focus on actually fixing the problem and limiting availability to advertising from films and TV shows with a non-white point of view for their membership. These are serious issues and to brush them off with a question about the nominee makeup of “the ideal Oscars” has little to do with the point
If we are not already there, the day will come when awards are given not on merit but on inclusiveness. Perhaps that should be a separate awards program altogether.
Direct questionWhen OscarSoWhite happened, the same people concern trolling about “inclusiveness” glibly said “make better movies”. I’d say empirically better movies are being made by non-white talent. So what has to happen for a non-white person to win an Oscar without accusations that things were grooved for them. It feels in a very subtle way like the goal posts have been moved and NO SUCH scenario exists.
Also, #OscarsSoWhite should’ve really been something like #OscarsNOTBlack because it feels like it was more about, getting black people nominated, not the makeup of the entire BIPOC community and the conversation/subsequent nominations support that.
Yep. Last year, there was #oscarssowhite outcry even though winners were a Korean director, all-Korean movie and a Maori scribe. This year we still hear such outcries in particular because Director didn’t nominate anyone black. It’s time to drop pretense that #oscarssowhite really applies to IPOC in BIPOC. They are tolerated as long as B dominates not so much when it doesn’t.
Better yet, lets drop the pretense that there will ever be a state of affairs that will satisfy everyone, and instead just try to make the process as fair as we can and accept the results even when we disagree with them, recognizing that it’s all ultimately subjective.
but what is fair? that seems to have changed a lot and the current definition is clearly turning off viewers and creates controversies and dissatisfaction with nominees/winners on all sides.
Fair means voters watch the movies and vote for the ones the like, giving artists equal access regardless of race, gender, etc.
Clayton Davis raised legitimate, fact based concerns about nonwhite artists not being given equal access. These concerns ought to be addressed.
What’s turning off viewers? What controversies? There’s always dissatisfaction, because everyone wants their favorites to win, but not everyone can.
but the whole point of pressure hashtagging is that race, gender, etc should matter when voting as in check the box or else. I salute Director’s branch for being the most traditional in the sense that they seem to care about merit more and are less swayed by fads and pressure.
What reason do we have to think that pressure hashtagging has any actual effect on the Oscar race?
maybe not in your parallel universe which sounds like a great place to live unlike this one.
That doesn’t really answer my question.
but it does. If you lived here in this universe you’d know that pressure hashtagging has influence because big media pick it up and then big media start making pressure which actually matters.
I don’t see any reason to think that any of this has any effect on whom AMPAS chooses to nominate and award. How did the Greta Gerwig Best Director campaign go? How did the “Green Book is racist” campaign go? How did the anti-Joker hate campaign go? AMPAS, like almost everyone else in the world, doesn’t seem to give a shit about any of that.
Good for them then. BTFOing Joker haters was epic.
The Oscarsowhite outcry is usually focused on the categories with the highest profile: the acting ones. In 2015, 20 out of the 20 slots for Oscar-nominated actors went to white actors. And in 2016, 20 out of the 20 slots for Oscar-nominated actors AGAIN went to white actors. In the wake of that 2-year drought, the number of actors of color jumped up to 7 among the 2017 Oscar nominees. Also, the Academy expanded its voting membership to invite more women & minorities.
Just when the Academy thought it had overcome its oscarsowhite narrative, last year’s crop of acting nominees featured Cynthia Erivo as the only black performer. .And though ”Parasite” won the SAG Ensemble prize, none of its Korean actors made the Oscar cut. (At BAFTA, all 20 of the acting nominees were white, and Margot Robbie was nominated twice. Due to the outrage there, BAFTA revamped their nominating procedures in hopes of reflecting more diversity.)
What a difference a year makes! The Academy went from just one nominated actor of color last year to 9 this year – a record. And BAFTA went from zero last year to 15 out of the 24 actors being performers of color. Too often, race is seen literally as a black-and-white issue, but this year, Asians got into the picture, too.
Asians are coming and there’s no stopping them.
About time. The Academy has ignored and snubbed Asian actors for decades. If Youn Yuh-jung wins, it’ll be the first time an East Asian actor has won an Oscar in 36 years (Haing S. Ngor, ”The Killing Fields,” 1985) and the first time an Asian has won Supporting Actress in 63 years (Miyoshi Umeki, ”Sayonara,” 1958)!
Academy and Hollywood industry but their found a way without complaining or blaming this and that. In blockbusters too like James Wan. He’s really impressive too.
Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell, Should have been in over Kathy Bates in that crap movie. I would have preferred Awkwafina over Theron and her unlikable character. Best relationship of the year grandmother granddaughter.
I agree 100%. Shuzhen Zhao was a Critics’ Choice nominee and Indie Spirit winner and Awkwafina was a Golden Globe winner, but I bet Academy voters didn’t even watch ”The Farewell,” so these two Asian actresses never made their radar. Oscar voters largely nominate who they know, and it was easier for them to nominate Kathy Bates and Charlize Theron, both past Academy Award winners..
IF (big if) the HFPA was in fact denying black themed films an opportunity for access to their voters via press junkets, that’s a fairly big problem. Especially since the GG influences the nominations and guild awards. Very subtle way to groove things. That’s a whole lot worse than just “wokesterism”, and I’m surprised these stories weren’t coming out earlier.
BAFTA…it is odd that nine time Oscar nominee Denzel Washington has never been nominated by BAFTA. The jury “solution” didn’t really work (and seemed to passive aggressively favor European productions above all else).
As for Oscar this year, so many big budget would be contenders moved into 2022, it opened the door for a lot of smaller and more idiosyncratic projects to contend. The Academy can only nominate the films that are ENTERED, so stop complaining about that. Amazon has to be kicking themselves about how they mishandled Small Axe
And sidebar, Tenet sucked on toast, easily the worst film of Nolan’s career. Can some in the community stop treating Nolan like the Streep of directors, deserving of a nomination simply by releasing a film? Please?
Who said that Tenet should be anywhere near any major awards? There seems to be a pretty strong consensus that it was mediocre.
Even Nolan’s worst movie is better than Nomadland
I’m not even necessarily the most passionate Nomadland fan (it’s currently my 13th favorite movie of the year) but I’d say almost the exact opposite: even Nolan’s best movie is probably worse than Nomadland
Concerning Andra Day’s chances (since I didn’t mention her in the longer analysis below):
Nobody has won Best Actress yet after being snubbed by SAG. Also, I think the only time an actor in any of the four categories has failed to be nominated by both SAG and BAFTA, as well as to win both the Globe and Critics Choice, but still won the Oscar, was Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock (in supporting), and her movie had another acting nomination at the Oscars, plus she personally won NYFCC and made the NSFC top 3. Day has zero major critics’ wins (or top 3’s). She only has the Globe win. Could happen, I suppose, but it would be entirely unprecedented.
The late screeners issue: others acting winners have had it in the past, but none of them (again, save for Harden) missed both SAG and BAFTA. Regina King did, but she won GG and BFCA, as well as all the big critics’ prizes.
Also, some weird rankings above… In the Oscar Squad version we’re predicting Glenn Close but here we have her 5th? The Father, the only one nominated at every major precursor in the category (besides Nomadland – both ineligble for WGA), 5th for screenplay, behind no fewer than 3 non-BP nominees?
I’m crossing fingers Mulligan wins SAG and whichever way I look at it her win here makes sense. Boseman will win for Ma Rainey’s which could take Ensemble too, so no urgency to award Davis who won recently. No urgency for McDormand either since her movie is taking Director and likely Picture and everyone knows this. Plus relatively recent winner. Kirby is a sole representative of her movie which isn’t a very accessible one and is seen as also-run rather than a threat. Adams is not happening. So Mulligan it is.
Hope so… 🙂
Carey Mulligan’s heavily campaigning still. Will host “SNL” on April 10th, maybe this will strengthen her status.
Hope so. I can’t with Historical figure who sing winning again (Zelly in 2020, Malek in 2019).
Yeah, it’s just getting boring… Hopefully won’t happen, though.
Interesting to see that Sasha is also prediting Sound of Metal not only for Sound (which it will very likely win) but also Editing – that´s my pick, too.
On the other hand I paused at Best Documentary – wasn´t “Time” expected to be the favourite for a long time? Is there a reason it dropped?
While I don’t know why Sasha dropped it, Time is not at least in my opinion really like any recent documentary winner, it feels so intimate and personal that it winning would be like Minding the Gap winning over Free Solo. Crip Camp instead feels like an extremely traditional documentary winner, it’s important but it’s also very approachable and uplifting in a way that will probably work very well for voters.
I have yet to check Crip Camp, but even though I was not really into “Time” I immediately felt that it´s a very American story and also a very timely story – those things and a strong emotional impact could transfer into an Oscar win, I guess. But before I make my prediction I definitely have to check at least Cip Camp and the Octopus doc (since they are both on Netflix and I have no idea how to see The Mole Agent).
I also didn’t like Time. Probably liked it less than you did.
That´s quite easy to find out with our Letterboxd-rating system, Claudiu! 😉
Let´s see, I gave Time…. 3,5 stars, means I liked it pretty much, indeed! (I´m surprised by myself right now), while you only gave it 3 stars…
I don’t think I’ve ever written the exact opposite of what I meant to write on here before. :)) That’s what I thought was so funny…
Well, that happens all the time when I posted something in a mindset of total convincement (something that makes me the Proust of the blog) while just en passant discovering only a few minutes later on Leo dictionary that I happen to use the wrong word and my well-considered and carefully worded argument turns out to have a total different meaning!!
Yeah, happens to me too – but hasn’t quite to this extent (in terms of altering the meaning) before. Hope it’s not the first of many! Getting old over here, I guess… :))
:)) Sorry, I meant less than you did! I’m editing…
Haha, okay you are right! 🙂
But to clarify, I guess I wrote I was “not really into it” because I felt slightly disappointed based on my high expectations.
I didn’t even have high expectations. It just didn’t connect with me at all. I didn’t feel like they got to the heart of the people involved (they kept them at a distance, as human beings, for the most part, even the wife, who is in it 99% of the time – the husband was basically a no-show, so why should we care about him, like, really, not on a theoretical level?!), but rather were content with piling on the metaphors (which is fine, but I tend to need more than that) and quiet revelations that I, for one, didn’t find that revealing at all.
I don’t care about Time or hate it as much as some. However, there is no contest here. Colectiv is waaaaaaaay better than any of the other four nominees. A genre-defining masterclass. A perfect film. Made my top 10 of the year easily. The only film that reached close to the level of Colectiv was Welcome to Chechnya, snubbed because the branch preferred self-helf with an octupus… or because the branch couldn’t nominate two Eastern European films.
Haven’t seen Welcome to Chechnya yet, but 100% will, if not pre-Oscars (since I have to try to get in as much Oscar-nominated stuff in the short time left), then definitely after. Hard to see it being better than Colectiv (which is my provisional #3 and will likely easily make my final top 10, same as for you), but who knows?! 🙂
I on the other hand think it’s one of the best movies of the year but feel pretty strongly that the things that make it particularly exciting as a piece of cinema (the structural ideas about the effect of all this time on these people) could perhaps push Oscar voters away from the movie because it’s about someone who has been in this situation for years and the movie approaches the topic from this point of view as well and that point of view might be difficult for at least some voters to approach
Difficult to say. At least it has a happy ending that is very emotional and that very likely will appeal to many voters I guess. But I always find it easier to predict a category after I saw all the contenders. “Collective” for example is truly amazing – in fact it tops my personal Top 10 of the year which is still in progress – but I asked myself how many Academy members might connect to this story, taking place in Eastern Europe in a society that is total different to the US society. To me, “Time” makes more sense, prediction-wise. But again, I have to see Crip Camp and My Octopus teacher first.
Your top 10 in documentary, you mean, right? (Not overall.) For me it’s top 3 overall, so far. True, I often have a documentary (or more) that high.
No, my Top 10 includes docs and feature films – I don´t separate them. For instance, my number 1 of 2008 was Man on Wire. At the moment, I have Colectiv on top followed by Minari and Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Sound of Metal on #4).
Oh, wow, that’s fantastic! That’s what I originally thought you meant…
Do you have an extra documentary list each year?
I do rankings in various categories. Not all the same as the Oscars; I don’t do several tech categories, I have ensemble, comedy, horror, etc. – probably closer to what Critics Choice used to do until a few years ago. Now they’ve split them. Even so, Critics Choice remains my favorite major precursor, in terms of their tastes, which I know horrifies everybody else. 🙂
Oh, I find them horrible! :-))
🙂
I always defend them to people. :)) Not with much (or any) success, of course, in terms of changing minds…
I don’t separate them either, of course. Although it’s often not easy to compare the two…
For the record, something called EntertainTV has The Mole Agent in Germany (in case I remember correctly that you’re German)
Yes, you are right, Ferdinand! Unfortunately I never heard about this channel. Probably its a pay per view channel, I´ll have to investigate this… Thanks!
Edit: I just found the film! Even better, turns out this is a German co-production and I can stream it online for free on the German TV channel ARD! 🙂
The Father should win editing hands down. Wish more people could have seen it.
Would love to see it!
I agree. The editing is precisely the greatest example why The Father is a much more accomplished film than Ma Rainey or One Night in Miami, the other two plays – The Father incorporates cinematic elements much more decisively.
Ah, so this is where I should post this thing…
In the BFCA era, the SAG for Best Actress has all but one time (Halle Berry – Monster’s Ball) gone to either an Oscar Best Picture nominee or the Critics Choice winner (or one of the winners, when tied – not the case this year) in the category.
Every instance of the BFCA Best Actress winner (or none of the BFCA winners in that category, when tied) not also being a Golden Globe winner that year:
1999 – SAG goes to the GG comedy winner
2000 – SAG goes to a losing GG drama nominee
2003 – SAG goes to the GG comedy winner again
2009 – SAG goes to one of the two BFCA winners
2012 – SAG goes to the BFCA winner
2017 – SAG goes to the GG comedy winner yet again
So, when BFCA and drama Globe have differed in their Best Actress picks, SAG has never gone with the drama Globe winner, interestingly. (This is guaranteed to continue this year because Andra Day missed at SAG.)
This year, at SAG:
– Mulligan is the BFCA winner;
– the two Globe winners aren’t nominated;
– losing Globe drama nominees: Davis, Kirby, McDormand (but only the latter is in a Best Picture nominee at the Oscars).
So, SAG, at least, should indeed be a showdown between Mulligan and McDormand, if the stats are to be believed. With Mulligan perhaps a slight favorite on precedents (since 2 of the last 4 times this situation happened, meaning every instance over the last 20 years or so, either the BFCA winner prevailed or the Globe comedy winner, and neither Globe Best Actress winner is nominated this year at SAG), but probably not enough, sample-wise, to give one any confidence in predicting her.
Then, if Mulligan confirms and wins SAG, the stat becomes:
When the BFCA and SAG winners for Best Actress were the same person (including ties), only 4 times did they lose the Oscar:
2019 – the SAG winner tied for the BFCA win (and won GG drama), lost to a BAFTA+GG comedy winner
2012 – the SAG+BFCA winner (not also a GG winner) lost to a BAFTA+GG drama winner
2009 – the SAG+BFCA winner (not also a GG winner) lost to a BAFTA(lead)+SAG+GG+BFCA (all in supporting) winner
2008 – the SAG+BFCA winner (also a GG winner) lost to a BAFTA+GG (comedy) winner
Every other time (13, by my count) when there was a SAG+BFCA winner, she prevailed. Since SAG+BFCA has only ever lost in this category to BAFTA+GG and this year no Globe actress winner was nominated by BAFTA, it would appear in this case Mulligan should win the Oscar, regardless of who wins BAFTA. Unless we take her juried snub there seriously (which would of course complicate things – but we probably shouldn’t, although we of course can’t be sure).
If McDormand wins SAG instead:
– 4 times the SAG Best Actress winner was in the eventual Oscar Best Picture winner (the last time, in 2005), and 2/4 times they lost the Best Actress Oscar;
– if McDormand also wins BAFTA, she will have SAG+BAFTA but not Critics Choice and/or the Globe, which has never happened before, at least in the BAFTA-pre-Oscars era (which perhaps means it’s not likely to happen now, either), thus, we will have no real precedent (since, while all SAG+BAFTA winners in this category won the Oscar, they also won both the Critics Choice and Globe, and McDormand has lost both).
If Mulligan carries through with with the win, it will be impressive as hell considering how polarizing the film is with some voters. She’s been helped immeasurably by McDormand being able to get a Producing Oscar as her reward.
Yeah, I’ve heard… Very annoying – how can anyone not at least like this movie?!
The ending clearly is a dividing line with some people, and I’ve heard grumblings that the twist with Bo Burnham was arbitrary and unearned.
The film was acerbic as hell and Mulligan played it letter perfect, but then again I’m cynical so I guess I was the intended audience? Honestly, it was a few clicks away from Coen territory, and I mean that as a compliment.
I get the ending not working for people, but to the point of not liking or at least appreciating all of the great stuff that came before?! I guess the twist was a bit arbitrary, I’ll give ’em that – to me it was powerful, of course. I do tend to be less critical of such things (not-100%-organic twists) than most, to be fair.
And frankly Burnham’s performance was exemplary and should have been nominated. Hard feelings from the Academy for Burnham’s pissy acceptance speech at the WGA last year?
100% agree!
“Hard feelings from the Academy for Burnham’s pissy acceptance speech at the WGA last year?”
I may have actually watched the clip of that – I’m not sure – but don’t remember anything about it. Was it that bad?!
I didn’t think so, but Academy people don’t react well to even mild ribbing
That is true… 🙁
Polarizing? Pretty good slam on rape culture. All the twists and character development put it above a polemic. Shows the importance of female directors.