The Writers Guild will be held tonight virtually, hosted by Kal Penn. AwardsDaily will be covering the event which begins at 4pm Pacific, 7pm Eastern.
I can see several narrative shifts from tonight’s winners. The general consensus is probably that Promising Young Woman and One Night in Miami will win. But there are variations therein. For instance, if Judas and the Black Messiah wins that could signal even more momentum for the film that has already been felt in how the nominations came down. The same goes for Sound of Metal. Both of these films are beloved at the moment but so far we’re not sure if any will win the major categories, although both are going to walk home on Oscar night some hardware, we just don’t know how much. Sound of Metal is likely to win maybe Sound, maybe Editing. And Judas is definitely going to win Best Supporting Actor but it could also win Screenplay.
Still, Promising Young Woman is coming into the Oscars strong with all of the necessary categories checked – it is clearly beloved. Then there is the King, Aaron Sorkin, who could win which would show the power for Chicago 7, which is the only film in Original Screenplay also nominated for SAG ensemble.
It will have to go up against Minari in Original at the Oscars, which will be a tough race, as Minari also has a SAG ensemble nomination, and has most of the necessary nominations. To my mind, the Original Screenplay category is a bear. It is a really hard category at the moment but a WGA win might give one contender the advantage heading into final Oscar voting.
In Adapted, Nomadland remains the frontrunner at the Oscars because it is the frontrunner for Best Picture. As we know, in the era of the preferential ballot, Screenplay is more often attached to Best Picture than even Best Director, as in:
2009-The Hurt Locker-Director, Screenplay 2010-The King’s Speech-Director, Screenplay
2011-The Artist-Director 2012-Argo-Screenplay 2013-12 Years a Slave-Screenplay 2014-Birdman-Director, Screenplay 2015-Spotlight-Screenplay 2016-Moonlight-Screenplay
2017-Shape of Water-Director 2018-Green Book-Screenplay 2019-Parasite-Director, Screenplay
But at the WGA, Nomadland was not eligible. The films that are nominated for both the WGA and the Oscars are One Night in Miami, The White Tiger, and Borat. Very likely one of these will win because of that. This is a strange enough year that one might just win that isn’t nominated for the Oscar. You never know. But in general, the win tonight might show popularity. Whatever wins here MIGHT be able to challenge Nomadland – you never know.
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Here are the nominees:
Judas and the Black Messiah, Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King, Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas; Warner Bros.
Palm Springs, Screenplay by Andy Siara, Story by Andy Siara & Max Barbakow; Hulu
Promising Young Woman, Written by Emerald Fennell; Focus Features
Sound of Metal, Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder, Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance; Amazon Studios
The Trial of the Chicago 7, Written by Aaron Sorkin; Netflix
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern, Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad, Based on Characters Created by Sacha Baron Cohen; Amazon Studios
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Screenplay by Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Based on the Play Written by August Wilson; Netflix
News of the World, Screenplay by Paul Greengrass and Luke Davies, Based upon the Novel by Paulette Jiles; Universal Pictures
One Night in Miami, Screenplay by Kemp Powers, Based on the Stage Play “One Night in Miami” by Kemp Powers; Amazon Studios
The White Tiger, Screenplay by Ramin Bahrani, Based on the Book “The White Tiger” by Aravind Adiga; Netflix
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Written by Jack Youngelson; Amazon Studios
The Dissident, Written by Mark Monroe and Bryan Fogel; Briarcliff Entertainment
Herb Alpert Is…, Written by John Scheinfeld; Abramorama
Red Penguins, Written by Gabe Polsky; Universal Pictures
Totally Under Control, Written by Alex Gibney; Neon