The next major guild event is the SAG award boradcast, which will be take place virtually on April 4th. So far the Writers Guild and Producers Guild virtual ceremonies have been streamlined and very classy affairs. They will not and cannot be what awards shows are meant to be – big glitzy gathering to signal to the viewers at large who and what Hollywood stands for.
Whether anyone will watch the virtual SAGs is not known – maybe they will, maybe they won’t. It’s hard to say. Ratings have been steadily dropping for a while now. Some say this is because of competition with other programming. Others say it’s because Hollywood has gone all in on politics and mostly no one wants to tune in for that except the community that is heavily involved in it.
Either way, we’re not expecting a ratings bonanza.
The question then becomes how will the awards roll out? What will be the impact of the awards? There is no doubt that watching actual ceremonies and applauses and speeches helps build buzz. Without it, we have — once again to remind anyone who isn’t paying attention – social media. Twitter, Instagram. (sidenote: I’ve spent some time on TikTok of late and it turns out to be an actor’s showcase and much of the parodies done on there are awards related – so if you want to sort of catch up with the buzz in the general public TikTok is as good a place to suss that out as any. I’ve seen some very funny people on there mocking how, for instance, actors give speeches and various other things. I’m late to the party on this, I know, but what can you do. One resists the urges until one can hold off no longer.
The thing about this is that in general the SAG awards might tip votes in a certain direction, given how the win was received live and on stage. But since we don’t have a live and on stage presence and we just have a video of them receiving it without waves of applause, what do we really have?
We only have what we know so far but that might not help us in terms of figuring out these awards, which are voted on by about 150,000 SAG/AFTRA voters where popularity is everything.
Best Actor
Starting in 2004 (right around the time the Oscars changed their date and led to a much more rushed season) Best Actor has matched with SAG in every year except one: 2016 with Denzel Washington in Fences. He ended up losing to Casey Affleck at the Oscars for Manchester by the Sea. But here is a really great example of how the date change impacted the awards race to a a significant degree. If you go back from the year 2003 you will find more SAG winners that didn’t match with the Oscars, like Russell Crowe in a A Beautiful Mind after scandal disrupted his win. Or Daniel Day Lewis in Gangs of New York where The Pianist gained last minute steam.
Of course, only a small handful of times has the SAG Best Actor winner not gone on to win the Oscar but it seems more locked and loaded in the post 2004 era.
We have our frontrunners — Chadwick Boseman in the performance of his career in the last year of his life starring in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, which also has Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor (Boseman again) nominations. His main challengers are Anthony Hopkins for The Father and Riz Ahmen for Sound of Metal. Both are brilliant performances but how does anyone top Boseman?
Best Actress
With the exception of Glenn Close for The Wife, Viola Davis for The Help, Meryl Streep for Doubt, Julie Christie for Away from Her, and Jodie Foster for Nell, all of the SAG Best Actress winners have gone on to win the Oscar. For Close and Davis this was particularly painful since neither has won a Best Actress Oscar in their careers. Davis has a Supporting Actress Oscar for Fences and Glenn Close has a shot this year in Supporting.
Carey Mulligan stars in one of the most popular films in the race, Promising Young Woman. The film has just the one nomination at SAG. Her main competition is Andra Day who plays Billie Holiday but does not have a SAG or a BAFTA nomination. Day beat Mulligan at the Golden Globes. Some other person will win at BAFTA because neither of them are there. If anyone other than Mulligan wins at the SAG, which is unlikely, that would seem to tip votes closer to Day’s favor. Viola Davis could win at SAG and then win at Oscar too. The Best Actress race feels wide open even if the buzz and vibe is on Mulligan.
Best Supporting Actor
The SAG wins in this category are hit and miss – with the last few winners streamlining into the Oscars. The one key thing to note is that Idris Elba won for Beasts of No Nation after being shut out at the Oscars, which indicates that they will deviate from that pattern of only choosing that which got an Oscar nomination if they see fit, which might mean Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, One Night in Miami, or Da 5 Bloods could pick up a win in ensemble.
Best Supporting Actor seems to be Daniel Kaluuya’s to lose for his portrayal of Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah, which has picked up momentum in these final weeks. Sacha Baron Cohen is part of Chicago 7’s ensemble, as is Leslie Odom, Jr. for One Night in Miami, and both have SAG ensemble nominations. That may or may not mean anything. Kaluuya, at the moment, feels like the frontrunner. There is enough lag time between now and Oscar voting where theoretically buzz could shift but there is no reason to believe that is how it will go for now.
Best Supporting Actress
The SAG supporting actress category is hit and miss with the Oscars. It’s important to remember just how significant it is to appear on stage for people to see a contender win that inspires how they might vote. But without that, we really just have the performances themselves, the movies themselves, and how likable the actor is.
I think any actress could win here – Maria Bakalova is really a lead put in the supporting category, which is always a threat. But she is likable and especially likable in the performance. She seems like an incredibly strong bet and is only one of two BAFTA nominees, along with Youn Juh-Jung for Minari.
It does sort of seem like it’s a three-way race between veteran Glenn Close, Bakalova and Juh-Jung. Minari is the only one with a SAG ensemble nomination so that might be the tip-off, but it might not be. This win is wide open.
Ensemble Cast
The ensemble cast award used to be a lot more predictive of Best Picture than it’s been lately, but it is still a good thing to have. If you go by the kinds of films that usually win this category, you would have to hand it over to The Trial of the Chicago 7, which seems to have ensemble cast written all over it. But times have changed, and especially this year. Remember the ensemble nomination last year for The Irishman? Once Upon a Time in Hollywood? The award went to Parasite instead. I think some of that was due to voters not wanting to hand out all of their awards to white actors (it has to be said and ditto at the Oscars) but a lot of it is just how much they loved that movie and the characters in it, and how much support the movie got in the press specifically for its ensemble cast – and how rare it was to have a foreign language film nominated for ensemble. That seemed to be a perfect storm for Parasite, which is a great movie and will remain one of the best choices the Academy ever made.
This year, that novelty factor isn’t a consideration. But white actors winning does seem to be, judging by how the race has gone so far. And to that, the SAG might want to reward one of the all black casts in the race which have not really gotten their due, as all three did not earn Best Picture nominations. But then again, with Kaluuya and Boseman both winning in prominent categories they might want to instead make it even more broadly inclusive with Minari.
I think with a voting body of 150,000 they are just going to pick the movie they like best. The problem is we don’t yet know what that movie is. Historically, it would go to a Best Picture nominee – which only leaves Chicago 7 and Minari in the running. They have broken with tradition, of course, with Idris Elba and Emily Blunt who won for A Quiet Place and way back when the Birdcage won ensemble without a Best Picture nomination. But it’s rare.
The general consensus on Gold Derby among the pundits is the following:
Boseman
Mulligan
Kaluuya
Close
The Trial of the Chicago 7
And that brings us to you. Here is our SAG contest. Thanks again to Marshall Flores for putting it together. Let’s see who knows best how this will go.
At least this will be the absolute last time Schitt’s Creek will be able to stain a top-line, televised awards show with their presence. After SAG, they can’t be nominated for TCA, Emmys, etc. no matter how much these orgs may want to.
Will there be a streamable, free link, for the SAG Awards? I don’t have cable or access to the live TV apps that will be offering it.
Apparently, this channel brodcasts it every year (I’ve only caught it there once or twice, because I often forgot about it):
https://www.dubaione.ae/content/dubaione/en-ae/live.html
I’m thinking Minari will win the SAG ensemble. No Nomadland or promising young woman to compete with at the screen actors guild awards. Trial of the chicago 7 has a 50/50 chance. Ma Rainey’s black bottom could win the night with Boseman and Davis winning at the NAACP Image awards last weekend. DA 5 Bloods and one night in Miami are out.
I’m going with
Minari
Boseman
Mulligan
Kaluuya
Bakalova
WW84
and
The Crown
Schitt’s Creek
I really hope any Stunt Ensemble but Mulan wins cause that idiotic arrow kick was unforgivable nonsense. Unfortunately, most likely Mulan will win. But fingers crossed it’s WW84.
Good picks. My second choices in ensemble and stunts – you’re probably winning the contest. :)) (Although I guess we’re in for a few acting surprises…)
Did you see that Romanian Doc” Collective ”? It was on the BBC this week ; it’s an important news story about corruption but at 1 hr 45 mins just far too long … those academy voters will never endure that I’m afraid .. I have ”My Octopus Teacher ” as an easy winner here that’s in line with previous winners such as ”March of the Penguins” and ”The Cove” etc .. like a previous winner ”Searching for Sugar Man” it came out of S. Africa with a lot of enthusiasm and caught on like a bush fire .. it even managed to win the PGA when it had to compete against another Eco- Doc from the great David Attenborough .. that shows real strength IMO
Colectiv is very tight, though – it may be long but it never feels like it drifts. Anyway, with that PGA win, My Octopus Teacher is probably going to be very difficult to beat, I agree. When the PGA winner is nominated, they hardly ever lose. ACE has an even better record, as far as I remember. If it wins that too (it’s the only Oscar nominee there) it might be decisive.
When is ACE ? Octopus is in an alien underwater world .. it’s sentimental like a Speilberg E T
Wow, ACE is really late!… About a week before the Oscars (17th).
Aren’t we always? 😉
At SAG, about every other year, I guess. 🙂 (If you meant this Oscar season, then definitely, at least most of the time – I guess Critics Choice was pretty unsurprising there.)
Aaron Reichwald made an interesting point in the other thread, which maybe was missed by most: every single BP winner in the SAG era (and beyond, I think possibly going back to Amadeus or something) has been actually nominated by at least one of SAG (for ensemble) or WGA. All of those ineligible for the WGA got the ensemble nomination. Could mean something, could mean not much – but it’s definitely interesting…
Nomadland is not winning Best Picture. The actors are going to bury it on the preferential ballot. Imagine how it feels working in Hollywood for years and then a movie with a bunch of nomads in supporting roles wins BP? Nomadland is going to come into the night with same combo as 1917 did (PGA, DGA, Globe) and ultimately lose to a movie with a strong ensemble consisting of actual actors.
Man I hope so.
That’s why I’m still thinking that “Minari” will win but it has to win two SAG awards (cast and Youn) to have a real shot. Yeah, it has no editing nomination but sooner or later a movie will win without it as “Argo” and “Green Book” won without the directing one.
I think we’re in for a major surprise on Oscar night.
It remains a possibility, for sure. I definitely don’t think Nomadland is anywhere near locked. But it is a lot stronger than 1917, this does seem pretty clear (the latter had no SAG acting nominations, either, nor Oscar acting nominations nor Oscar editing or ACE nominations, didn’t win the BFCA for picture, didn’t win screenplay anywhere and lost the WGA, whereas Nomadland was ineligible). Whether that’s good enough, who knows?! It’s not much stronger than La La Land, if it’s stronger at all – of course, nothing seems anywhere near as strong as Moonlight this year. And that’s our situation. 🙂 Seems to favor Nomadland, to me, but it’s just not clear enough to be anywhere near certain.
Again, I don’t think that WGA ineligibility can be treated as an issue to overcome. What matters is that had it been eligible, it probably would have won WGA
I understand, but this is an absolute stat. While it very well might not be, there’s no actual evidence that it isn’t just as bad (or close to just as bad) for WGA-ineligible movies as it is for those that just got snubbed there. The Pianist, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Favourite are some of the movies that were ineligible for the WGA and missed SAG Ensemble – true, they all missed other key things too, but the general point is they weren’t non-factors in the BP race. And the last two, at least, were facing quite vulnerable front-runners (whether we think it’s Spotlight or The Big Short, Roma or Green Book), so they might have been closer to the win than we think. The Pianist’s Oscar night performance also suggests it might have been.
“What matters is that had it been eligible, it probably would have won WGA”
Evidence seemed to suggest the same thing about Three Billboards, pre-Oscars.
But an absolute stat outside of context doesn’t really matter, does it? The idea of a stat in my opinion is to always reflect sentiment, reaction and voter behavior. I just don’t think WGA eligibilty reflects any of those. So while Three Billboards seemed like it would have won WGA if eligible and the Oscar results imply that wouldn’t have necessarily been the case, it’s still in my opinion incorrect to hold the WGA ineligibility as an issue because to me it feels like overfitting. Instead in my opinion the WGA ineligibility should cause the WGA win to be treated as something of a “mystery constant”: we don’t know what would have won WGA if all films had been eligible and we never will and thus we can’t draw exact results from it. However we can estimate what the result probably would have been. This is the best that we can do and sometimes those assessments are incorrect but hey, that’s Oscar predicting.
🙂 Again the old debate about whether it hurts to just not be eligible and not have the opportunity to win or not… (And thus get the publicity, if nothing else.) It’s easy to just say ineligibility doesn’t matter, but I don’t think that’s a logically unassailable position and I will always be wary of ignoring evidence just because of this. Long story short, I don’t think we know whether the stat is outside of context, as you put it, or not. I don’t think the logic is 100% clear. Of course we can’t draw definitive conclusions, which is why I said “could mean something, could mean not much” in the first place. 🙂 But maybe we can draw some conclusions… Like, if we turn the stat into “4/4 WGA-ineligible BP winners so far have gotten the SAG Ensemble nomination”, it’s not penalizing anything for being ineligible for the WGA, but simply comparing movies that have been ineligible there (which means whatever it means, the stat doesn’t and shouldn’t care), and the weakest they’ve done at SAG in ensemble (which, for BP winners, is a losing nomination) so far. This already takes into account whatever effect (none or some) the WGA ineligibility has. And then simply describes the situation Nomadland is in, objectively, impartially. (I might be missing something, but that’s what it seems like to me, as I write this.) We’re perhaps about to find out whether a movie in this situation can afford to miss at SAG or not. We do have some evidence so far that maybe they can’t. Because of the 4/4 and because of all of the ones that didn’t get the SAG Ensemble nomination and then failed to win BP. Doesn’t tell us where the line is, but it maybe puts it in a certain range. (As opposed to the full spectrum.) Which is why I said it was interesting. Because it might be actual stats weakness. If Nomadland loses, it will start to look like that. If not, it will look closer to irrelevant, though we still won’t know with anywhere near enough confidence, in either case. It might be a clue, that’s all I’m saying. And I don’t like to ignore evidence. 🙂 Even circumstantial. I won’t take it to mean anything big unless it’s clear evidence, anyway, but I like to try to keep it in mind, at least, even if it’s not.
SAG predictions, same as contest entries:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Boseman
Mulligan
Kaluuya
Bakalova
Mulan
Tiebreakers:
The Crown
Schitt’s Creek
(I just won’t bet against these two anywhere.)
Some stats:
– already detailed in longer posts why I believe Trial and Mulligan are the slight stats favorites for SAG (I have to admit I didn’t bother to check stats for the males, Kaluuya and Boseman, as I don’t see how they could not be the favorites, given that I don’t remember them missing anywhere, well, except Boseman in BP at the Oscars, but, like Bridges in Crazy Heart, he has botht he narrative and the GG+BFCA+LAFCA lead actor wins to make up for it – I hope this doesn’t come back to bite me, like when I did something somewhat similar with Mendes vs. Bong at the Oscars last year);
– in supporting actress, the last person to be nominated for and lose the Critics Choice but then win SAG is Rachel Weisz in 2006 and the last time the Critics Choice winner here was nominated and lost at SAG was Amy Ryan in 2007 (Bakalova won the Critics Choice this year and is nominated at SAG, and only Zengel wasn’t nominated at Critics Choice, putting her in Emily Blunt, one-exception-all-time, territory, if she wants to win SAG, without an Oscar nomination as well);
– since 2005, also, no SAG supporting actress winner has been nominated for and lost both the Critics Choice and the Golden Globe awards, which is again a problem for everybody but Bakalova (even Youn);
– additionally, in Glenn Close’s case, all 5 SAG supporting actress winners that didn’t win either the Critics Choice or the Golden Globe first (whether nominated or not) were in either Golden Globe BP-nominated or WGA-nominated movies, and Hillbilly Elegy isn’t either of those things;
– anyway, an upset definitely seems possible here, as Bakalova’s stats are beatable, if reasonably strong;
– in Stunt Ensemble, every winner so far has had either the Oscar sound nomination (both categories) or the Critics Choice visual effects nomination (often, wins in both);
– Da 5 Bloods has neither (but does fit the pattern of some previous winners, as a war movie, so it could win in spite of the stats, which are far from convincing in this category anyway, and maybe far from convincing for SAG predictions in general – the acting ensemble nomination has no correlation to winning in this category), nor does The Trial of the Chicago 7 (which also doesn’t fit in with any previous winners – war movies, fantasy/sci-fi/superhero movies or spy thrillers, basically, all of them);
– News of the World has the sound nomination (and is the only one, in fact) but has no real chance of winning the award anyway and hasn’t got the visual effects nomination anywhere, plus it, too, doesn’t fit in with previous stunt ensemble winners at all (see above);
– which leaves the two Critics Choice visual effects nominees, Mulan and Wonder Woman 1984, and I’m going with the former because it has the added industry support (Oscar effects nomination, also costume design) and because Wonder Woman 1984 is less liked overall, it seems (which will perhaps matter with so many people voting), and that franchise has already won one of these before. (Plus it seems wrong somehow to pick the superhero movie to win for a fourth year in a row in this category, but maybe it’s just that obvious, who knows?!)
“Her main competition is Andra Day who plays Billie Holiday but does not have a SAG or a BAFTA nomination.”
Those two things (the first and second halves of that statement) kind of contradict one another… 🙂
“This year, that novelty factor isn’t a consideration. But white actors winning does seem to be, judging by how the race has gone so far.”
Yup, the stats will perhaps get it wrong again because of that this year, by going against Minari.
..”Others say it’s because Hollywood has gone all in on politics and mostly no one wants to tune in for that except the community that is heavily involved in it.”
..and i rest my case Sasha..this is EXACTLY why there should NOT be oscar even if it 2 years in a row does it matter? cos as you point out the film going educated class of most of us here on this site out their in the real world ..frankly just have zero interest tuning in…to ANY guilds why that i wonder? ( {somethiing that the cyberhack twitterati clearly don’t comprehend and couldn’t if they even tried to get their ass out of their shithole- clearly they fall flat in the hole cos they too darn retarded to get up pull their pants up)
Oh, I know let see there is NO: TENET NO, NEWS OF THE WORLD, NO THE COURIER, NO THE LITTLE THINGS, NO GREYHOUND, NO THE OUTPOST – namely, no films on balanmce overall figuring as oscar contenders for best picture or guilds films i guarantee you would compete and make for a far far more compelling richer oscar race than the largely mundane second rate bunch of contenders that the Academy has settled for..we know this that the truth the awards season in it entirety must face up to..sooner than later might soung insanely crazy but maybe they be best served rather than cheesing off the most of us for the ludcrous snubs- snubs no less that could potentially rival the ultra high standard mostly of contenders for last years best picture nominees..i mean..is it any wonder based on what Sasha points out based on what i elaborate on that most of us have the brains not to take the pro- militia organised bully boys online trying to exploit dishonorably the true nature of AMPAS? it wiill alreayd has sunk to an all time low it inevitable ..you all watch matter of when not if and it happening already!-
I also put to you that really nobody sh9uld beat Mulligan in by far the most complex, confronting contemporary character role a female actress could be asked to do…posing as BOTH the witness victim…with a pent up rage at hjow her best friend was ill treated and raped…and then to switch to very psychologically demanding intense role as a semi- insitgator and manipulator as she seeks to turn the tables and somehwere between that playing good family daughter while hiding the truth- parents suspect but dont really know extent of reasoning why she out so late..that like 3 DIFFERENT CONTRASTING CHARACTER BASED PERFORMANCE PERSONALITIES IN THE ONE MOVIE CHARACTER ACTING ROLE. If McDormand get the SAG and she damn well shouldn’t it confirms NOT that McDormand roile was a finer more ambitious fulfilling achievement than Mulligans- honestly, NONE of the sag contenders in her category are…then it PROVES THAT THE ACADEMY FAIL TIME AND AGAIN TO BREAK WHAT BECOME A REDUNDANT CLECHED BORE OF A HABIT of embracing the award to the actress who succeeds most at ‘deglamorizing’ themselves…lets face it Mcdormand as awesome an actress no denying that but performance is more extensively defined rounded by her deglamorizing been done before i think most of us want Mulligan to win if she does regardless of the artificially engineered preferntial ballot lead social media pressure infused prevoioisly in pre- pref ballot era disregarded delusional world the academy and guilds esp PGA AND DGA live in.. then WGA + lead SAG role once strengthened a films chances from having the edge in best picture race ….must say it look soooo awful oin the academy if they do NOT follow the WGA to LEAST give screenplay to PRomising young Woman.
Truthfully of the half way there – overall oscar choices for nominations in best pic,….i much rather it be a Trial of the Chicago 7 vs. Promising Young Woman Vs. Mank titanic battle for glory..but noooo…one filme ‘mank’ is seen as out of date to today societal ‘standard;’ acccoirding to social media imposed manipulation clearly emerging of the awards race …and Pomising Young Woman is too divisive i can understand that but sooner or later the Academy better wise up irrespective of the increasingly less accepted PGA decisions in preference to what most of us think which is NOT consistent to PGA sentiment most years…and embrace the penultimate film that represents the cause for ANY woman mistreated or ill treated who wants sense of justice THEY NOT HAD or witnessed or known somebody to incur such horrific trauma from male perpetratirs,..men in power men who think they have power to control and dominate what women want…it message film PMO at one level..but my good ness me it a movie that speaks to generations of ill treatment by men of women alive and dead…beyond it being a fictitious characters and possibly? slightly exagerated plot twists..but they work..the film poses the most urgent question of our generation ‘ WHEN ARE WOMEN GONNA BE TREATED CONSISTENTLY WITH RESPECT THEY DESERVE AND NOT LIKE A PLAYTHING TO MEN WHEN WILL THEIR BE A EQUILIBRIUM SO WOMEN SOME WILL NOT HAVE TAKE OR THINK BOUT TAKING MATTERS IN THEIR OWN HANDS? WHEN CAN THEY TRUST IN THE AUTHORITIES TO LOOK AFTER THEIR SAFETY?
PMO is a perception reinforcing films what we all know most us not right yet it still prevalient in our society..it diminishes workplace culture (like in our own parliament house in Australia’s Capital atm) and it undermines the notion of fairness and equalty htat women still get subjected to feeling a need understandably push back in their own way..this is why PMO is not just popular but by far the MOST profound contemporary relevant generationally relevant movie of the bunch..can the SAG and the best pic nominee film get what it deserves? or will the OScar miss a gazillionth golden opprtunity once in it lifetime to embrace the best most real depiction of aftermath and pursuity one woman’s own approach to justice cos nobody cared enough to do anything after recent incident? it happens IT STILL HAPPENS go on Academy be blindsided maggots you are settle for a film that speaks to NOBODY but is about every culture but which less people can relate to …time for Oscar to once again embrace the the divisive and profound..PMO IS NOT DIVISIVE it as absolute dead set necessart film at level for women and men as 12 years a slave was for the ignorant whites
oh and bny the by Trial of Chicago 7? welll it the Academy and social media trolls scewing and putting their unsavoury influence on awards season ignorance BEST ON SHOW! Right now there dead set important fukin Trial absolutely justified that reflects the core issues of justice in the real contemporary world for Blacks agaibnst violence perpetrated by some sicophant white people,….errr what Trial of Chicago 7 setting and concept? about the very core issues that America specifically are concfronting as we speak..yet the Academy and the Guilds esp the PGA AND certainly almost the DGA …frankly…treat this movie as what? maybe ;’TOO’ pinpoint relevant to the hottest biggest issue confronting americans today? Black Lives matter (easily the most noble well intentioned and controlled movement compared to ‘me too’ which was open to it noble intentions being manipulated by same dishonest scum that have tainted this oscar race…) so tell me despite fact of the oscar snubs how the fuk is it any wonder then..? that notwithstanding these snubs i listed above…that indeed the public are disconnecting at record levels from the Guilds dont tell me it ‘doesn’t matter’ the Guilds when a film once won the major precursor guilds and more than onme or 2 of what i call the big 6… WGA, PGA, DGA, SAG, eDDIE, CINEMATOGRAPHY. we could still least follow understand the logic in their choices..
There clearly been a campaign disgracefully shamefulkly against Mank, Trial of the Chicago 7, , Promising Young Woman. How else do you explain the least offensive least eventful films of the bunch Minarii and Nobodys land are the preordained unjustified inedcusable favourites? pppffft
About SAG Actress Winner ,also Renée Zellwegger and Annette Bening did not win the Oscar.
I picked Minari, Boseman, Mulligan, Kaluuya, Bakalova, Da 5 Bloods, The Crown, Schitt’s Creek. I wonder if the winners will leak ahead of time. I agree with a previous poster that there are a lot of categories to go through in one hour. I hope the winners get their opportunity to make their speeches. I also love the “I am an Actor” bits.
If there are no acting surprises (well, depends if one considers Bakalova the favorite or not – I think she is), one of us is probably winning the contest. 🙂
Another big question about the SAG Awards is: Will the winners and their reps be able to keep a secret for several days? Even though the winners will be announced Sunday (April 4), the acceptance speeches will be pretaped a few days earlier (Wed., for TV categories; Thurs. for film). The envelope openings will be done a la Zoom, and the nominees all signed nondisclosure agreements NDAs. The results will be edited into a one-hour TV special, set to air Sunday on TBS and TNT at 9 p.m., EST.
Why pre-taped and why one hour? There are a lot of categories to go through in just one hour.
“With the exception of Glenn Close for The Wife, Viola Davis for The Help, Meryl Streep for Doubt, Julie Christie for Away from Her, and Jodie Foster for Nell, all of the SAG Best Actress winners have gone on to win the Oscar.”
Renee Zellweger from Chicago too
If Mulligan is winning Oscar she wins SAG. However, if Day is winning Oscar, MCDORMAND wins SAG.
I feel similarly.
Ah, but what if McDormand is winning Oscar?… 🙂
Holy shit – it just dawned on me. Among the nominees for best ensemble there are 6 people who played characters on The Wire!!! And not just any characters.
There’s:
Lester Freemon (Peters – Da 5 Bloods)
Senator Clay Davis (Whitlock Jr. – Da 5 Bloods)
Brother Mouzone (Potts – Ma Rainey’s)
Mayor Clarence Royce (Turman – Ma Rainey’s)
D’Angelo Barksdale (Gilliard Jr. – One Night)
Cedric Daniels (Reddick – One Night)
If The Trial included James Doman (Major Rawls) in its’ roster it would have been 7.
Oh yeah, and if you look at the TV Drama ensembles, you’ll find none other than the legendary Omar Little.
What a year.
We loved watching The Wire this summer and fall. Such a great show. It was a rewatch for me but not for my husband.
Boseman has been Predicted the winner since the Movie opened, but I honestly believe that it is more about his dying that cemented the Deal, He was a good actor and did a very good job with the role, I was not blown away by it, and I honestly feel that there are MANY other wonderful black actors who could’ve done just as well with the role. On the other hand, no one in the Acting Field this year made me FEEL AS MUCH< with SO LITTLE dialogue as Riz Ahmed, now that is REALLY GREAT ACTING. he deserves the Best Actor Trophy this year, and if Chadwick were still alive, Riz would be getting it also.
Ahmed has Oscar written all over him – that became apparent in “Nightcrawler” and obvious in “The Night of”. Just not this year.
I would have nominated him for “Four Lions”. I find that performance, even better than Nightcrawler’s and Sound of Metal’s. It’s not an easy role to pull off and he excels in both its dramatic and comedic components (but everyone in that ensemble is fantastic)
Say this to Peter O’Toole or Richard Burton who also always had “Oscar written all over them” and never won so…
So fucking what? Dude, you can quote me this go-to Oscars biggest loosers Trivia Wikipedia knowledge, but the fact is there are more people who had Oscar written all over them and won.
Al Pacino since The Godfather – man, did he wait for it.
Paul Newman – same here
Henry Fonda – same here
Dusting Hoffman – ever since The Graduate, then Midnight Cowboy, then Lenny
Bobby Duvall – huge talent emerged in the 70’s, won in the 80’s
Jack Nicholson – exploded with Easy Rider, but won on his 5th nomination
Christian Bale – child prodigy, who simply needed to land the right part
Leo DiCaprio – don’t get me started here
Kate Winslet – ditto
Viola Davis – ever since Doubt
Philip Seymour Hoffman – started in Boogie Nights
Heath Ledger – with that talent it was bound to happen, sad he didn’t get to hold the statuette
Joaquin Phoenix – hints track back to The Gladiator, but it became obvious with The Master
Gary Oldman – despite a gruelling lack of nominations, everyone sorta knew it would happen
Julianne Moore – hints with Boogie Nights, but then came 2002
Susan Sarandon – won on her 5th nomination, but one does tend to forget what a force she was in the 80’s and 90’s
Robin Williams – needed the right part and got it
There are still actors in the waiting room like Amy Adams, Jake Gyllenhaal Michael Fassbender, Willem Dafoe, Saoirse Ronan, Michelle Williams, Oscar Isaac or Mark Ruffalo. And there is Glenn Close who is likely to join o’Toole, but these are just a few exeptions. Most of people who in the general consensus were heading towards the Oscar, got their Oscars.
Riz Ahmed definitely deserves best actor this year. His performance has remained with me months later. Stellar!
it’s not only the quality of the performance AND his performance in Da 5 Bloods as well as body of work this year, it’s also the fact that he played both and also in Endgame while battling with cancer, and still his death caught us all by surprise. The inmense challenge of doing Oscar-worthy performances while fighting cancer and in extremely delicate health condition. That’s why he will and should win, not because he died. His commitment to his craft and profession, has even maybe costed him his life, as the obvious recommendation would have been to stop working during treatment.
I totally get that, and GREATLY admire his willingness to give it his all til the end, and he has done some fine work in a short lived career. but this goes along with what I am saying. his win is not really just for his performance in “Ma Rainey’s” which was supposed to be more about Ma Rainey, but ended up being more about him, his part was so padded, Viola Davis almost comes across as supporting. but he’s getting it anyway. it’s a done deal since before they even knew who and what he’d be running against. I just feel sorry for Riz, because his performance took my heart and stayed with me, far more than the other nominees, who were all very good. He spoke volumes without having several juicy monologues. If it were up to me, I would do a special tribute to Chadwick, and give Riz the Oscar.
go find out “Four Lions”… fearless film, fearless performance. If you thought Borat was controversial and riské… wait till you see “Four Lions”‘ point of view and themes.
covers face
Can I have 12 bottles of bleach please?
serve yourself. I’ll call the ambulance.
“his win is not really just for his performance in “Ma Rainey’s” which was supposed to be more about Ma Rainey, but ended up being more about him, his part was so padded, Viola Davis almost comes across as supporting.”
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom was written in 1982 when Chadwick Boseman was 6 years old.
Viola Davis comes across as supporting, because the function of her presence in this play is only one facet in a tapestry about the larger struggle and exploitation of black musicians.
The relative weight and focus of the roles we see onscreen is the same weight and focus that has been seen onstage for the past 40 years. That’s how August Wilson wrote it, 4 decades ago.
The emphasis has always been on the devastating cascade of bad choices made by Levee, the character whose tragic arc from euphoria to despair crystalizes and personifies the play’s theme.
The play and movie are not “supposed to be about Ma Rainey” — the title is the name of a song. It’s not a biographical sketch of Ma Rainey.
It’s not about a day in the life of Ma Rainey. It’s about the day of the downfall and self-destruction of Levee Green.
I wonder if there’s a possibility that people are too afraid to say this in public and will vote differently.
people are too afraid yes but they won’t vote differently. they’ll say it in public once they feel safe to do so AFTER they give him the Oscar.
Also, do you really think that Hopkins or Riz want to upset and get scorched for it even though they are actually deserving? Of course not. Sometimes losing is winning and this is that time.
Very true.
Riz will win eventually as a make-up, and then the performance that should have won won’t win, and then they’ll be made up later, and the cycle continues.
Very likely though fingers crossed it’s actually for the right performance.
“I honestly believe that it is more about his dying that cemented the Deal”
His dying during BLM peak. Remove BLM from equation and nomination would be his reward dead or alive and there would be no threat of double nomination (for Da 5 Bloods in Supporting).
Never ever has an all male SAG ensemble won. That’s why IMHO Trial won’t win this one. It might be Minari, but my money is on Da 5 Bloods. I also think that Nomadland will show it’s power without an ensemble nod and McDormand will win here, but not at the Oscars (not for acting anyway). And if Mulligan looses here, then she is out. BAFTA goes to Kirby or Blank and Day wins the Oscar.
Only once they rewarded ensemble from a movie that wasn’t nominated for Oscar for best picture so “Da 5 Bloods” is NGNG at this point.
It will be “Chicago 7” or “Minari” so probably “Minari”.
That happened when only 2 out of 5 movies nominated for SAG were nominated for BP. Same as this year. I wouldn’t rule that out.
Yeah, but 24 years ago. And since then they rewarded movies nominated for Oscar even when only 1 out of 5 was (“No Country for Old Men”). But yeah, I suppose that it can change this year but only with “Ma Rainey”, surely not with “Da 5 Bloods”.
”Never ever has an all male SAG ensemble won.”
Wow. I had never heard that before.
Looking back, it looks like ”Trial” is only the SECOND all-male SAG Ensemble nominee. The first one was ”Beasts of No Nation.” … I couldn’t find any all-female SAG Ensemble nominees at all.
I think “The Help” and “Hidden Figures” would qualify as Female ensemble movies. they both won.
As it happens the Hidden Figures enseble consisted of 4 women and 5 men :). Food for thought.
Ah, but that changes things a lot… Doesn’t seem like such a problem for Trial anymore (as it did when I first read the stat).
Since Trial, Miami and Da 5 Bloods are all-male (well, in important roles), that leaves Ma Rainey’s and Minari to duke it out. Would they awards another Korean ensemble after Parasite? Advantage: Ma’s.
I have a hunch about Da 5 Bloods for a couple of reasons.
– It’s the largest ensamble nominated – sometimes is matters
– It’s the most diverse cast
– It has Chadwick Boseman
– It has Delroy Lindo, a man they may wan’t to award somehow since he doesn’t have a single significant individual nomination
– It’s nominated for stunt ensemble, so that means it has the exact set of nominations as The Trial has and that’s saying something
I know it’s a long shot. Minari and Ma Rainey’s do seem to have betters odds. The smart thing would be to bet on Minari, but I can’t seem to get rid of this hunch that they may want to give it to a Spike Lee film. I dunno, we’ll see.
that’s a really good point and something to take into consideration. Not to mention that it would do nothing to indicate whether Picture upset is coming and by whom.
I also think they might feel rebellious and vote for un-nominated movies so Da 5 Bloods fits the bill.
I disagree with the conclusions (Da 5 Bloods, Day, Mulligan being out if she loses SAG) but the stat is very nice! Was not aware of that one until now…
I went with
Minari
Boseman
Mulligan
Kaluuya
Bakalova
Mulan
and then
Lovecraft Country
Schitt’s Creek