Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Chadwick Boseman — Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Viola Davis — Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Daniel Kaluuya — Judas and the Black Messiah
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Yuh-jung Youn — Minari
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
The Crown
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
Jason Bateman — Ozark
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
Gillian Anderson — The Crown
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
Schitt’s Creek
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Jason Sudeikis — Ted Lasso
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Catherine O’Hara — Schitt’s Creek
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
Mark Ruffalo — I Know This Much Is True
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
Anya Taylor-Joy — The Queen’s Gambit
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Wonder Woman 1984
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series
The Mandalorian
As much as I really didn’t care which film won for Ensemble. I haven’t seen MINARI yet. The main reason I’m glad that TotC7 won is that John Carol Lynch finally has an serious acting award to his name. I’ve loved him forever.
He was so good in it, too…
It’s hard to believe that Best Actress is probably going to end up being more unpredictable than Supporting Actress after all the hoopla we’ve been through.
It’s nice to have a couple of genuinely exciting acting races this year. Usually it seems cut and cry by the time the Oscars come around barring the occasional shocker.
Ryan i know it bit long but i think i encapsulated in my letter below to AMPAS my most articulate and profound persuasive compelling case why direction AMPAS is heading to most of us reflkected by this years race and last decade at least if not more…suffice to say i feel it by far most articulate piece of writing that touches on oscars history..fears we feel they forgotten most val;uable parts of it , what not working to us now..and how it can improve.
would you consider this as feature article? i pretty certain even if number of you dont agree with me my choice what is standout best film what doesn’t deserve is different some years to number of you the principle and sentiment as online community i captured that spirity and that frustration dont you think it important most relevant letter worthy of feature article mate? what you and Sasha think?
RED ALERT URGENT hypothetical letter to the Academy as follows:
Dear Academy, the members of AMPAS and the president and board of voting organisations within the Academy of Motion picture arts and sciences first thing you probably wondering is: ‘ why do i bother’ writing this letter to you when you know i not gonna read it?’ well that the WHOLE reason entirely i writing this letter to you (clearly to galvanize support amongst those which you seek to ignore and disregard for far too long and too often time and time and time again) .
I speak on behalf of those of us every increasingly at a level i not seen before in my time partaking and contributing to film awards season discussions in 20 years.
Nobody least of all is me is denying the strong temptation to embrace that which you been reluctant to with online streaming movies dominating this awards season- but there in fact HAVE as there always ought to be given it was the most fundamental attribute that shaped motion pictures that you give recognition to the best the BIG SCREEN.
I understand given my own confronting difficulties like many others the mix of cultural and social issues that movies can inform us on but do so through ARTISTICALLY reflecting with sense of dare and vision whilst complimenting the fundamental core principles that make a single oscar contender a viable at LEAST respected and 50% agreed on frontrunner – namely..the central roles of well defined characters with performances of authority and a intricate well thought through ENGAGING story. The predetermined hyper speculative frontrunner has endorsement rating of record low in 20 years compared to all years preceding of at best based on bulk of comments here on a forum no less you have more to gain as you have more to lose by disregarding our views…taking us out of the equation completely..and leaning excessively heavily of Social Media.
WE witnessing the dawn of most unwelcome development..the effective sidelining of studio films…in favour overwhelmingly of the indie films. While some within your organisation may seek to use the pandemic as self justification for the folly of outcome of limiting most contenders this years oscar to streaming it would be the final nail in your organisations coffin.
It bad enough you could never embrace game changing filmmakers past for director or producer in Orson Wells, Hitchcock, and Kubrik..and may well add almost arguiably influential modern day auteurs in Ridley Scott and of course Christopher Nolan. But it ANOTHER new low entirely to snub majority of by my count a record 6-7! high quality high profile studio films.
Again i wish to emphasize nobody least all me is denying the important role of indie message driven films…but to disregard the role of big screen movies is to blatantly disregard and risk trashing a legacy that contributed to defining your golden era’s within AMPAS and your industry peers least far more in sync with majority of public sentiment at time of these great filmmakers existence (those who passed away) mostly than you are with us today.
You stand accused as FACT of an ‘us vs them’ mentality..you are elevating the importance of social media in shaping your choices and all the vented outrage over certain nitpicking of issues over the ability to have faith and rediscover a level of common sense- the binding tie that more often than not we embrace between your industry peers – critics- to public sentiment scale balance..is all but compromised..
It so true if you ‘take out the middleman you break the link in the chain’ and if you break the link (that us) in the chain between the studio’s large and emerging timeless hard devoted work and creative energy and all nighters (for all we know) to deliver films not just for the blockbuster box office record breaking fan made crowd..but those like us whom you once appealed to us more often than not per decade – last time this happened was the modern golden era in the 90’s – largely that most recent complete decade where consensus between the factions- critics, film going public and your industry peers still linked in the chain.
If a chain loses it connection in it centre it break..and inevitably it is unable to support and do grunt work to keep the machinerty that is the Academy and Awards season functioning successfully.
Surrendering awards season as you seem to threaten to do implied by your blanket extreme leaning to pro- social media- pro literal education driven rather than artistically driven films..(with exception this year of a handful of them) high entertainment and dramatic engagement at high level type films….is sure fire way to ensure dysfunction grows and the record large chasm between what we endorse mostly what you do as eventual best picture winner and frontrunners within nominees let aloine whom you deem worthy as making the cut for best picture.
You can make the case beyond the pandemic ultimately, that for the Academy to become culurally and respectfully relevant in educated insightful clear perspective thinking film fans- (which ought to matter to youi more than you regard us..it has to be said)…that as industry itself is crying out for it the ORIGINAL and visionary adapted stories beyond cleche beyond the ‘pandering to the online mob’ type films and beyond the pro- activist advocated issues type films- not to say at all they dont have part to play in awards season of course they do..but why cant you ensure in future awards season will have more considered balance between visionary advocacy type films of social cultural issues..that focused and really magnify in telling moving unforgettable character driven stories enriched by setting and events that pan out in cinema…to the innovative..(not ncessarily) bigger budget..popular (not necessarily box office breaking record) but largely supported publicly amongst us studio films…
What have you got to lose by listening to us? you know? you might just win back our hearts and minds to enrich a soul and within it we all hope and pray that after the potentially inevitable final nail in your coffic you deliver..that in coming years this plea in some way will ignite and lead to rediscovering of the fire of passion..the light within your current dead heart …that your soul and heart at core of AMPAS you rediscover ….YOU HAVE A CHOICE YOU ALWAYS HAVE AMPAS to quote ironically one greatest films of our or any era since your inception: “you have a choice to rise above your forefathers since the prime of your earlier years or to fall into darkness with all that left of your kin”
Think about it for your future viability..we all want best for AMPAS not just to survive but to thrive so we can more than what we are to date.. embrace and approve largely united with all that once made you great to us to once again be great again.
Please here our most impassioned plea..your fate..is in your hands..don’t waste it.
Sincerely, on behalf of the magnificent staff and all on Awards daily and from those impassioned despairing film fans like us who CARE about your future..
faithfully ,
ALL OF US!
I’ll have my assistant do coverage on this letter because I don’t read.
Viola Davis is the Billie Eilish of SAG awards.
interesting analogy….elaborate plz
Billie Eilish just keeps winning Grammys even when no one expects her to.
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Where’s the article about Viola Davis? Was it deleted??????
Dan Kaluuya was bad on SNL last night and that makes me less likely to root for him now. When guys like Daniel Craig, Jon Hamm, or Sterling K Brown kill it on SNL, I’m generally rooting for them more on the awards circuit. Ironically, I haven’t been a fan of SNL Adam Driver but I know he has his fans.
Saturday Night Live means what to his performance?
well, snl is just a way to get to know someone behind the camera better
In the SAG era, no Best Actress has ever won without the Globe or SAG or BAFTA. If Renee Zellweger has 2 acting Oscars, Viola Davis can surely be a 2 time Oscar winner. She also has a transformative role that the Academy likes.
This normally would be over for Mulligan, but b/c of the rule change at BAFTA this year where she’s not nominated and therefore has no chance of winning, she still has a chance at the Oscars.
That’s why Mulligan needed the SAG and Globe wins. BFCA isn’t enough to carry Best Actress.
I know. But it is believed that if BAFTA didn’t change its rule, not only would Mulligan be nominated, she would be the favorite to win. (Of course, that is just conjecture.) So this stat that you brought up has a little asterisk to it this year.
But she was the front runner for the Globe and SAG and still lost to a newcomer and previous 5 time winner. And at the Globe, PYW was nominated for Best Picture.
We can argue about Mulligan’s chance forever. But I was just taking issues with your stat that includes BAFTA. What if Mulligan won BAFTA this year (if rule didn’t change there)? Would she be a contender?
Yes those are bad and surprising losses and an omen to her Oscar fate, but her being a Brit should make her a stronger frontrunner there than it would at Globe and SAG.
Shit, even none of them were enough for Denzel and Adrien Brody!… (Since we’re on lead. There’s also Harden, there’s also Coburn, in supporting…) Of course it can be enough – especially in a heavily split race like this one.
I said no Best Actress in the SAG era has ever won without winning the Globe or SAG or BAFTA. The problem is that Mulligan keeps losing as the perceived front runner. Denzel, Brody, Harden, Coburn were were never the front runners.
It’s a dangerous game, ignoring general acting category stats and focusing one’s stats on just the one category out of the four… 🙂 Anyway, yes, it’s bad that Carey keeps losing as the front-runner. But Viola has only won SAG and they clearly love her (and the movie – more than the Academy, in both cases). She just hasn’t won anything else of note. SAG alone has only been enough once. She’s a weak front-runner, at best. And still no movie has ever won both lead Oscars and not been a BP nominee. A lot of arguments against her, too, not just against Mulligan… That said, I’ll probably predict Viola, for a number of reasons which seem to make her the slight stats favorite, but I think it’s super-close. Mulligan can easily beat her.
No one has ever won only with BAFTA and Critics Choice. No one in all four acting categories in SAG and Critics Choice history.
Well, this stat doesn’t bode very well for Mulligan (nor McDormand) then.
That said, often the winners tend to have strong stat working for them (like they’ve won more than one among others). This year, we will have 4 different winners in these televised awards and the other three have terrible stats against them as well.
So it’s not an impossible hurdle for Mulligan to overcome. Davis is the slight favorite for sure.
And nobody but Susan Sarandon has won with just SAG. (Halle Berry had NBR too, like I said.) Zero exceptions vs. one. And no movie ever not nominated for Best Picture has won Best Actor + Best Actress at the Oscars.That’s zero exceptions in a lot longer…
nah didn’t lift a pinky to transform. Actors gain weight for real, sing for real. She didn’t do any of it to transform. Not to mention, she is going against an actress who actually sings! So screw anyone who votes for this lazyass Oscar baiting. Namecheck if there was ever one.
Well, sure why not, especially if the mood this year is “vote for black people” I’m a bit tired of it all so I’ll root for Mulligan
And with just SAG (no Globe, BAFTA, Critics Choice – or NBR) Viola is looking to follow 1-2 precedents, at most, from 20-25 years ago. Not a big difference… Meanwhile, no movie ever not nominated for Best Picture has won Best Actor + Best Actress at the Oscars.
For all the angry talk about supposedly undeserving Oscar contenders being affirmative action nominees, how is it that no one ever mentions yet another historically inaccurate piece of Boomer apologia is the one being aggressively pushed as the legitimate BP frontrunner.
The problem with Promising Young Woman is that I don’t see people or the Academy rushing to see this picture. Yes, it’s all a big pile of shit the way the way the weinsteins of the world treated women everywhere, but would I want to see a movie about somebody deciding to resort to violence as a result of violence? No. The only anger I’m interested in is that of Howard Beale. I think the timing of the movie may be right but not the angle.
I feel that way about Viola Davis. There are 5 movies out this year about how a white-dominated government industrial complex held back black people–Judas and the Black Messiah, US vs Billie Holiday, Trial of the Chicago 7, Seberg, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom–so why am I in a rush to see more than 2 or 3 of them.
Promising Young Woman is about women scorned and rape but it’s actually pretty fun. It’s a revenge thriller laced with certain quirky elements
But aren’t all of those elements targeting a much younger aoudience than Oscar voters? Even with their effort to get younger and diversify, I doubt the contingent of old school members that drool at biopics and movie stars portraying singers and other people within the entertainment industry are a minority now. The only way Mulligan can pull it off is if the two singer characters split the vote and Mulligan somehow gets an overwhelming majority of the newer, younger, more diverse vote, which might also go to one of the two singers because of the historical feat of the second black actress to win the award, or might go to something more indie based on their sensibilities like McDormand.
vote splitting happens all the rime. its how john wayne in 1969
Well that is the problem with not seeing a film and judging it. You assume there is “somebody deciding to resort to violence”. The character never resorts to violence.
To be fair, she doesn’t resort to violence until the very end, and even then she isn’t able to actually do it. But yeah, the marketing makes you think otherwise and I don’t think older members will be going out of their way to watch it.
Right, better post this here, too:
New stat: no actress has won in the BFCA era (1996-today) after being nominated for and losing at least 3/4 of SAG, BAFTA, Critics Choice or the Golden Globe. (It’s happened in the other categories – at least Swinton and Brody, who lost 3/4, being snubbed for the fourth, and maybe there are more. But not in actress.) This is perhaps a reason McDormand and Kirby won’t be a real threat to win, even if they win BAFTA. They’ve been nominated everywhere and already lost 3/4 final votes. This doesn’t rule out the 3 winners so far, though – Day has lost once (BFCA), Mulligan and Davis twice. (And those are the final numbers, with all three snubbed at BAFTA.) Losing one final vote as opposed to two is not an advantage, of course – the numbers actually suggest, if anything, the opposite:
Those that lost two – Lawrence, Streep, Cotillard, Kidman, Berry, Swank (Boys Don’t Cry), McDormand (Fargo) and Paltrow, perhaps, because she won 2/3 and lost the Critics Choice back when there were no nominations there, only winners announced, so, had there been, she likely would have been a final nominee – we can call this a wash, since it’s not clear either way. And maybe Sarandon (won SAG, lost Globe, BAFTA-snubbed, no BFCA nominations, somebody else won, so most likely she would have had 2/4 losses on a final vote, though it’s not clear, so not counting her either).
Those that only lost one – Stone, Theron (who lost the BAFTA in a different year anyway) and maybe Hunt, who lost the Critics Choice (having won the Globe and SAG and been snubbed at BAFTA) also back when they only announced winners – we can call this a wash as well, for the same reason.
So, if one is being objective, it’s looking like either 7-2 or 9-3 to 2/4 losses vs. 1/4 losses. This makes sense, because those that only lose 1/4 usually do so because they’ve been snubbed in at least one or two key places. (Stone and Theron actually won 3/4, so it wasn’t the case with them and, thus, they aren’t in any way precedents for an Andra Day win.) As most stats do right now, this too seems to point towards a Davis vs. Mulligan situation.
I don’t understand movies and the Oscar race like sports
Oh, sports don’t have anywhere near as-good stats to have fun with!… 🙂
For my money, SAG is the least neccessary awards in Hollywood:
https://orrinkonheim.medium.com/what-if-the-sag-awards-didnt-exist-e000999eec4
No hope for Mulligan. Sorry for her but I’m happy for Viola. Amazing actress. Good choice.
Friend, longtime friend!!! Not you!!! Let’s hope until the end!
Viola is a supporting role, but apart from that, cant see how the Oscars dont follow suit. The ensemble SAG this year is meaningless. Its Nomadland all the way
Chicago 7 won for all those over-the-top obnoxious performances? Seriously, only Mark Rylance I remember being normal and not annoying. All the others are either annoying or forgettable.
I even kinda like Chicago 7, but this is not one of the award that they should won.
Ma Rainey is probably my least favorite film out of the 5 noms, but I would pick either that or Minari for this award.
Not even Langella? Rylance was very good, I agree. And I also liked Yahya Mateen
O yes, Langella is good. I forgot about him.
I remember Yahya Mateen is good, but not fitting the film’s tone. The film is set in a slightly lighthearted tone, and I remember thinking that if this is a serious-serious movie, Mateen’s character would be much more impactful.
Speaking as a white person, will all you aggrieved white men just STFU already. Go watch the White Power Hour with Tucker Carlson if you need Caucasian comfort food. The best performances this year were given by non-white actors. In the immortal words of Chanel Oberlin…
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“The best performances this year were given by non-white actors”
which is why there’s a lot of lament that Riz is going to be robbed by Boseman over-sentimentality.
Absolutely right.
My heartbreak for Riz Ahmed being robbed of things began many years ago with Nightcrawler being entirely overlooked. He is the best of the year.
But if Chadwick hadn’t died, then Best Actor would probably go to Anthony Hopkins.
He got an Oscar nod. He’s not overlooked.
“The best performances this year were given by non-white actors.”
That’s your opinion. Many of us feel Carey Mulligan created an original, iconic and galvanizing portrait that will stand the test of time. Telling us that we should go watch Tucker Carlson is laughable.
You know what else is laughable. This (it isn’t a parody but word for word what they say):
BAFTA should not go to McDormand/Kirby after historical WoC wins with HPFA and SAG. It would not be a good look. It would not be a good look if AMPAS awarded a white actress after this either.
How dare anyone say that WoC winners won only because they are WoC and not on merit?
This is the same people. In one sentence, they demand that WoC wins because WoC and than in the next one rebuke anyone who says they won cause WoC. Fuck that. No wonder awards have become irrelevant and nobody cares to watch.
I had the film Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom amongst my top 10 – course i guess it excellent film achievement…until much like number other films yet to be opened late in my country…(as usual) during awards season…now i have expectations it least a excellent film and worthy best pic contender..for it won not one but 2 2! acting SAG wins.
But the question remains..you mean to tell me it taken THIS LONG?? for a black woman to win best actress at the sag?
and not taking away from ms. Davis excellent performance (i pretty sure of that given she won) does anyone else have wif of twisted feeling the ONLY reason Mulligan lost is not cos she NOT stand out performer but that the politics internal and external of SAG and the nation and the racial issues that SAG needed to overcome to not be ‘so white’ one cant help but think this sentiment NOT the TRUE BEST STANDOUT lead actreess role- that honor far and away goes to Carey Mulligan… is what is driving awards season…
This what i said above sadly overshadows the outcome of the lead actress category.
But the real headline is the momentum shift to and rightfully so the postthumous oscar looming deservedly so for one of the tragically lost late amongst most promising acting of the younger generation that of the late great Chadwick Boseman THIS really politics and racial negligence lack of acknowledgement issues aside- which has clearlyt tainted the SAG for too many years more than it shouild…is the head line act BOSEMAN become a very deserved SAG WINNER congrats.
Should been Carey Mulligan but clearly she was simply too white..and history for self inflicted lack of recognition for blacks rightfully so long over due is what had undermined what really overall proving to be a near pointless award season ..inconcistent..erratic…and waaay too randomized…
I love to see Ma Rainey Black Bottom upset the entire apple cart..frankly one SAG is big win 2 SAGS is really potent..now over to academy with urgent quesiton DO ACTORS RULES? or is now each guild category does not have carry over points if you like to increasing films best picture chances? 2 acting wins in sag SHOULD be big deal but we all know..politics and self inflicted racial negligence rules in SAG ey?
If the vote was happening by just Aussies, Mulligan wins easily. As you know Aaron the landscape right now is all about recalibrating the way women are treated and that men look at their behaviour.
Carey already won the AACTA International for Best Actress. The narrative is not so front and centre in America right now.
that’s why I think it may happen that the race switches to…
Actress – Davis
Sup. Actress – Youn
Original Screenplay – Promising Young Woman
… if they give Adapted to The Father, then Editing to Chicago 7
They can really spread the wealth with this distribution..
Nomadland – Picture, Director, Cinematography
Promising Young Woman – Original Screenplay
Minari – Supporting Actress
The Father – Adapted Screenplay
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Film Editing
Mank – Costume, Production Design
Sound of Metal – Sound
Judas and the Black Messiah – Supporting Actor
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Actor, Actress, Make Up
Soul – Score, Animated
Song – One Night in Miami
… it could very well happen this way. But I mean, would it? All of them look viable wins, but that looks too convenient… also it would mark a moment in history with none of the acting wins going to a caucasian performer (3 african americans and one Korean)
I’ve been saying Promising Young Woman was going to win in screenplay for the time I saw it. It’s very deserving.
it’s the only Best Picture nominee that I haven’t seen yet
I just recently caught up with ”Wonder Woman 1984” in a movie theater. And the story is an incomprehensible mess, but I’m glad that the film won the SAG for Best Stunt Ensemble. However, ”Tenet” deserved a SAG nomination for its stunts, much more than ”Da 5 Bloods” or ”Chicago 7.”
lel Chicago stunt nom over Tenet. what happened to this world?
It says something about the total lack of good action films that it managed to win best stunt assemble. Really crappy fight scenes especially the last one where she fights that extra from Cats.
Remember, there’s still nobody who’s won Best Actress at the Oscars without first winning the Globe, Critics Choice or NBR since 1997! That’s what Davis has to beat. Berry won not only SAG, but NBR as well. (Susan Sarandon is the only one in the BFCA era, and her movie had the directing nomination, another acting mention and four total Oscar nominations, so it may well have made it into the BP lineup with more than 5 slots.) Of course, what now makes Davis the likely favorite (albeit weak, as has already been pointed out by many) is that nobody has ever won the Oscar for Best Actress – in the SAG era and a little bit beyond – without winning SAG or the Globe. The stat against Andra Day is just as bad: no actress has won the lead Oscar in the SAG era without winning SAG, BAFTA or Critics Choice, and there are quite a few Globe winners that fit this description and failed at it. Finally, for McDormand and Kirby, it’s: no actress has won the lead Oscar in the SAG era and a bit beyond without winning SAG, Critics Choice or the Globe. It’s been done in other categories, though, of course – but lead is lead. That said, with things being so split, I could see McDormand still winning the Oscar, even if she loses at BAFTA.
This all makes the Gold Derby award (which helped predict Colman and many others) particularly interesting in this category this year…
Just curious (if you have the stats at hand), do you know how many have won the SAG without winning either a Globe, Critics’ Choice or NBR?
I included this in my longer post in the other thread. It’s just the two above, Berry and Sarandon. Bodes well for Davis, I guess.
Oh, sorry, you included NBR. 🙂 Then it’s just Sarandon.
Who then went on to win the Oscar, interesting… Bodes very well for Davis, not gonna lie.
Yeah – a bit more removed and having read some new points, I’ve decided I’m probably going to predict Davis, in the end. And hope to be pleasantly surprised by a Carey win. 🙂
Gold Derby is good to look at b/c they give a breakdown of votes, but I wouldn’t look to them as bellwether. Mulligan should be the frontrunner there (if not even shoo-in). But if she ends up losing or winning by a hair, then it should spell trouble for her.
At this point, I would even wait for the Indie Spirits to get more clues.
Gold Derby is also good to look at because they have around 2000 people voting, and people of all sorts of backgrounds, which is probably closer to Academy demographics than SAG (though of course the latter has the overlap), which is just actors (and, OK, AFTRA). It’s highly debatable. It definitely seems more relevant in that sense than the HFPA (although they seem to perform about the same, at least in the two female acting categories, the ones I’ve already put together tables for), or Critics Choice.
Wow, so everybody but Kirby and Day (who are pretty stats-dead anyway) is nominated at ISA in this category! Very nice – could definitely be a big late clue…
So, this is probably what you should bet, for your Oscar line-up. This is the stronger precursor for the acting categories, and I thought Bakalova could win it because Minari would be the preferred choice at Ensemble (also, because since 2008, if i remember correctly, the CC winner for Supporting Actress has gone to win an Oscar, all in Supporting but one switched to Lead, and for that to happen, Bakalova needed to win here), but in the end Chicago 7 didn’t lose enough steam (I just rewatched it tonight and it really doesn’t hold together in a repeated viewing) for Minari to win (with the factor that it would have been 2 Korean ensembles in 2 consecutive years).
Regardless of BAFTA, Youn seems to be winning the Oscar as well, and I consider only Close’s insane dueness can take it away from her. Actors have spoken about Bakalova… nom is enough (and actually, in a similar situation, 14 years ago, they snubbed Sacha Baron Cohen for the original as he wasn’t even nominated).
On Davis, the leaks seemed legit (only failed on Bakalova) in the end, but on Oscar I think that the Best Picture nom might prevail in favor of Mulligan. After this, I think that Oscar will be Mulligan/Boseman/Kaluuya and either Close or Youn, but going for Youn for the “Best Picture” rule
No film has ever won both lead acting awards without a Best Picture nomination. Only The Miracle Worker and Hud won 2 Oscars for their actors without corresponding Best Picture nominations. And those were in years when there were only 5 Best Picture nominees, including overstuffed epics with more technical support. The winners’ strongest competition were in other films that weren’t nominated for Best Picture. Plus, you could easily look at something like The Miracle Worker as snubbed for Best Picture yet essentially a 2-man show and sufficiently rewarded as such. Finally, each of those films won one of its trophies in a supporting race. For Ma Rainey to win two lead acting awards, something that has only happened 4 times, when 3 of those were Best Picture nominees, I would just not understand how it didn’t have the support to earn a Best Picture nomination. So that makes me think Viola won’t win…but is Carey the default winner or does Andra win without a BAFTA or a SAG? Do the black leads cancel out or do the voters throw their weight behind one or the other?
With you 100%, except that thinking Day can win would be to ignore the stats almost completely (except for the one stat that favors her, the one based on the Globe win). But winners sort of like that can happen in crazy races, from time to time – even if they almost always do way, way better than Day has, nonetheless, at all sorts of precursors…
I’m torn on Andra Day because I feel like Viola’s win at the SAG (and frankly her dual NAACP wins) suggest possible bloc-voting for her and everything her career stands for. When the noms came out, one of the biggest stories besides Andra’s and Viola’s history-making nominations together in Lead Actress was that Viola had a record-breaking 4 nominations for a black actress, and became the only black actress with two noms in lead. Billie Holiday is more of a lead actress vehicle because she carries the film, but I think it’s better to be in Viola’s shoes, with her stature, even as a previous winner, than Andra’s, as a singer-turned-acting-neophyte with her polarizing film’s sole nomination, as good as she is. And I still think Carey can win, and makes sense as the de facto frontrunner in a weird race, but it really says something that all the above-the-line support for PYW hasn’t translated into more than one televised win for Carey.
Yup, I would say I agree with you completely. Davis is the very weak front-runner, with Mulligan the only real alternative and some potential stats-shockers lying in wait, given how split the category has been.
Ma Rainey’s not making the cut could be b/c of the competition of the black films this year. This year there are arguably four and they split the #1 votes. Not to mention there’s a fifth film with PoC as main characters. I know it’s ridiculous and racist but that’s the way it is. Imagine there are 4 very good westerns made in the year. It’s not inconceivable to think that there can only be one on the list.
No, of course, but I still have to wonder mathematically if it’s possible for a film to be no higher than 9th at best, and not nominated, to win both lead acting awards (especially up against the likes of PYW with its sweep of the key nominations). Like, if everyone who ranked Judas 1st also ranked Ma 2nd, I would think it would have been nominated based on those #2 votes and the handful of people who actually would have ranked it 1st.
I think Davis can win. She is utterly captivating in Ma Rainey. As I’ve said below, each of the Best Actress nominees give unique, breathtaking performances that are deserving of their place.
Its Davis Vs Day for me now.
Day’s performance is more edgy and raw though. Her first leading film role in a troublesome screenplay which she knocks out of the park! Marion Cotillard for La Vie en Rose anyone…?
Completely different scenario.
Cotillard’s competition was Julie Christie, previous Oscar winner and way older in an industry that has ageism above all of its forms of prejudice, and Elliot Page, a performance with lots of comedic elements, which rarely win here. And Cotillard was on screen for the vast majority of a 2h21 min film. One of the 20 longest performances to win that category in history.
Viola is on screen for 27 minutes of a 1h34 film. Competing against Carey Muligan in the age range actresses usually win Oscars in one of BP frontrunners. Against Andra Day in a way longer performance in which she sings (unlike Viola). Against Frances McDormand in the greatest juggernaut in women representation in awards history.
Anthony Hopkins is on screen for 16 minutes of ”Silence of the Lambs” (1 hour, 58 mins.). And he won Best Actor at the Oscars. (Interestingly, the National Board of Review also honored Hopkins for ”Silence of the Lambs,” but it was for Supporting Actor.)
Day is pretty much in every scene of a 130 minute film (from memory) and acts the house down! Her vocal performance only adds to the mercurial nature of her performance.
Anthony Hopkins is on screen for 16 minutes of ”Silence of the Lambs” (1 hour, 58 mins.). And he won Best Actor at the Oscars. (Interestingly, the National Board of Review also honored Hopkins for ”Silence of the Lambs,” but it was for Supporting Actor.)
He is. One of the most iconic performances and characters in film history. Very well known by people all over the world. Do we think any performance or character this year reaches 10% of this status? My answer: no.
Lecter is a rare iconic character in movies. But let’s face it: Looking through history, there are many Oscar-winning performances that are largely forgotten today, and there are many iconic performances that were never Oscar-nominated.
Yes but my point is: for you to command an Oscar win in such a short performance, it needs to be clear how your performance stands from the rest of competition (Hopkins and Forrest Whitaker) or how much of a strong overdue narrative you may hold (Nicole Kidman). I see neither applying to Viola.
I see your point here.
Also, Davis’s performance as Ma Rainey is a lead even though it is for a limited time. The character is a central commanding force to its narrative voice.
A questionable example of a Best Actress winner which was actually a Supporting Actress performance was Kate Winslet in The Reader (should have been nominated and won for Revolutionary Road that year anyway). That particular awards season showed clear confusion surrounding the role; with some awards-giving bodies nominating Winslet in supporting and others in lead. Perhaps this is subjective? Though, in my opinion, Hanna was a supporting character within the narrative.
What about Kaluuya and Stanfield in Judas… Thoughts?
Ma is lead. Even though I quite like the performance (way more than Boseman’s), I would without doubt rank it 5th among this year’s nominees.
It’s not Forest Whitaker’s scenario – that was a Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods caliber performance with way less screen time and that, well, he was playing evil but as he didn’t get to wear a MAGA hat, the industry was OK with rewarding that in Lead. Clearly above his competition. I’d say Peter O’Toole could have won hadn’t he just gotten an Honorary Oscar.
Hanna has always been Lead for me. The film is all centered on how she shapes Fiennes character trajectory. It’s a co-lead scenario. With WAY more screen time than Forrest Whitaker also, who is also in a film about how his character shapes McAvoy’s character trajectory.
Kaluuya and Steinfeld is a Thelma and Louise scenario. Both are lead but the industry created an informal rule to allow co-leads to run as Supporting. I mean, had Leo gotten a Supporting Actor nomination for Hollywood last year, people would riot because he is widely famous, well-rewarded before… people like to cheer for the underdogs. Ali in Green Book is the longest performance to ever win the category and the fourth in terms of share. The most bizarre category fraud of the century considering the screen time, even topping Alicia Vikander. But people never use that as the exemple of ultimate category fraud. They use Pitt, Vikander, Waltz and even Forrest Whitaker.
I realise Hanna had more screen time and scope, though for me, the character seemed to be supporting with the all involving intensive flashbacks parts of the narrative. I didn’t see the co-lead character here. An example of one of my favourite winning supporting roles is Jim Broadbent in Iris – he’s in every scene basically, though is role is utterly supporting of the lead character, and within the context of the story itself.
I couldn’t agree more about Ali in Green Book. That is LEAD all day and night! Vikander did my head in with her “supporting” role. One could argue her character’s supporting nature to the lead – though she was a co-lead with her own leading narrative arc.
I think Pitt and Leo were co-leads too. Though I could live with Pitt in supporting… Just!
I think the industry needs to have a look at themselves with category fraud and what constitutes a lead or supporting role nomination. This Kaluuya/Steinfield situation is ridiculous.
Yeah. We entered a bizarre territory looking at the length of every Oscar winning performance at Supporting in history. In the top 5 for Sup Actor, two of the top five happened in the last 10 years. Same scenario at Sup Actress.
Yeah, it’s so bizzare. Can’t win in lead so we’ll slip you into supporting. Maybe it’s going to take an actor to stand up there and say; “Thank you, but I cannot accept this award as my role was a co-lead performance.” Ali could’ve done that in a classy way.
The days of two leads from the same movie being Oscar-nominated in Best Actor/Actress are long gone: 1983 marked the last time for Best Actress: Shirley MacLaine and Debra Winger in ”Terms of Endeartment.” And in 1984 marked the last time for Best Actor: F. Murray Abraham and Tom Hulce in ”Amadeus.” Nowadays, one of them would have to be designated Supporting. But ”Judas and the Black Messiah” marks a new low: when BOTH leads are put in supporting.
Yeah, and Thelma and Louise – 1991.
You’re right. If it’s ever remade, would the first-billed Thelma be considered Leading? Is Louise Supporting? Or maybe they’re both supporting!
https://media2.giphy.com/media/126yvirZ5O3LBC/giphy.gif
To me, Kaluuya and Stanfield in ”Judas” is outright category fraud. They are not the supporting actors in their film; they are the CO-LEADS. And it’s disappointing that they’re taking up slots in Supporting that truly belong to Supporting players.
Bravo. My thoughts exactly. I wanted someone else to say it too. CO-LEADS for sure. It’s bullshit.
They should both be in lead, but I do appreciate that they’re in the same category like they should be. It’s just… odd.
See ya folks; I’m off to my happy place – the movies. Seeing the last of my tickets to the French Film Festival. ‘Delicious’ is the title.
For my fellow commenters upset that their favourites didn’t prevail (mine didn’t either), but it does NOTHING to change my love & respect for the films and performances I loved this season. Time will reveal which performances and movies will endure. But they all are endearing. Just enjoy them! Peace Out!
Have fun with that! 🙂
Great movie. Beautifully made film.
Nice! 🙂 Might look it up myself, then – once it shows up on IMDb. (Doesn’t seem to be there now. And I’m not that good at finding alternatives to IMDb.)
Perhaps it’s this one: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt10738536/?ref_=fn_tt_tt_2
it is that one 🙂
Thank you! I had been on here for too long yesterday when I wrote this, I guess – for some reason, I didn’t think, in the moment, to look for the French version of the title. 🙂 So dumb…
It’s funny how things work out; if they had given Close the award a couple years ago, nobody would be fussing that she probably won’t win this year. Coleman would probably be the frontrunner in the category, and most people would be fine with it.
And it would have been absolutely the best outcome.
Close deserved a MILLION times more than Colman in 2018.
Colman deserves more than anyone easily this year.
You can blame the Academy voters if you want. But let’s not forget that Close won many awards for ”The Wife” only 2 years ago: the Golden Globe, the SAG, Critics’ Choice, the Indie Spirit, etc.
OK. Youn and Bakalova won many awards this year. Top awards including. We can give Glenn the Oscar. Right?
Honestly, nobody outside of our bubble and even many inside of it will ever remember any of the performances nominated for Supporting Actress this year. Nothing here is particularly unique or undeniable or will rank among the greatest performances this category ever seen.
Close’s career will be remembered forever and the fact she never won an Oscar will always come back to hunt the industry when she passes. When you talk to someone outside the bubble about Minari or whatever 10 years from now, you will listen a “What the heck is even that?”. When you talk to someone outside the bubble 10 years from now that Glenn Close never won an Oscar, you will hear a “Seriously?”.
For civic duty purposes, anyone should watch the video of Geraldine Page receiving her Oscar after losing 7 times. One of the most touching moments in Oscar history. I have always defended that, even though it’s complicated, I would absolutely have picked that over Whoopi Goldberg. Imagine if that moment had not existed? Well, Page died just 15 months after winning the Oscar. Close is way older than Page was.
Glenn Close’s career will be remembered for her iconic performances in ”Fatal Attraction” and ”Dangerous Liaisons,” not her granny getup in ”Hillbilly Elegy.” And if she never wins a competitive Oscar, she joins an illustrious list that includes Cary Grant, Fred Astaire, Gene Kelly, Judy Garland, Deborah Kerr, Peter O’Toole and many more whose film legacies will live on much longer than Oscar trivia.
Yup, she certainly doesn’t need the Oscar…
Does anyone actually need one.
Some people probably do, to further their careers. How many (%), I’m not the person to venture a guess at, since I don’t know anywhere near enough about these things…
Well, someone is winning for playing a badass granny that gets sick… oh… but the badass granny that we are all supposed to think it’s such a unique thing because JD Vance didn’t write the book adapted to screen for that film.
Sincerely, that argument that X will join a great group is pure bullshiting that many smart people buy. This tries to normalize mistakes and to give a pat on the head of people making horrible mistakes for a wide set of the most disgusting forms of prejudice in some cases. I could use this same crappy argument to award Roe v Wade Best Picture next year saying that whichever doesn’t win will join The Social Network.
Close time will come. But not for Hillbilly Elegy and not for that performance. SHE DESERVES BETTER. And I will be there and many others to celebrate with her for that beautiful and deserving performance. Her performance in Dangerous Liaisons has stood the test of time and I’m fond of remembering that she should have won an Oscar for it instead of Foster. I prefer that rather than she wins for an uninspired performance like in Hillbilly Elegy just because she’s overdue. That won’t age well.
But then… if Jodie Foster had won best supporting actress in 1976 for taxi driver, then Glenn would have won best actress in 1988 for dangerous liaisons, then OLivia would still have prevailed in 2018 for the favourite, and we’d be back to square one and nobody here would be bitching about Glenn and injustice for veteran character actresses in 2020, and most people would be fine with Youn or Maria winning, instead of Youn-is-a-POC-winner-in-a-performance-anyone-else-can-give. Everything leads back to 1976 I suppose as long as we are playing this game. Funny how things work out.
Didn’t we learn a thing with Sally Field? Had Foster won for Taxi Driver… she would still have won again. When they like you, they really like you. When they don’t like you, you may lose an eighth Oscar to Borat’s daughter or the women version of Alan Atkin in LMS, both unknowns to the industry just months ago.
despite my dislike for Minari, Youn is extremely good and I disagree that “anyone” would have given that performance – specially with the added difficulty of playing against a child actor and creating a dynamic that made both of them give Awards-calibre performances. I still think Bakalova should win, but having seen all performances, any of them would be a worthy winner and is a deserving nominee.
Youn is the best performance in her category. She deserves to win regardless of nationality and no one in Hollywood can give the performance she has graced us in Minari. Heck, no one in Hollywood can give the kind of performances she has given in her Korean films. She’s an acting royalty in Asia and I’m so proud that Hollywood has finally seen her talent and that she has come this close in winning an Oscar for a performance that’s actually deserves to be celebrated. For me, she’s the most deserving among the SAG winners this year.
The Biopic virus left Best Actor after the Malek hangover and is taking the Best Actress category again after a hiatus between 2012 and 2017. One food for thought that probably says some stuff about Hollywood… This century we only had two years the Biopic virus didn’t take either one or both lead categories. I thought this would change this year with Muligan/McDormand + Boseman/Hoplins/Ahmed. I guess I may be wrong. Just as a curiosity, we had 6 YEARS in the 90s where neither of the victories went to biographical roles.
I wouldn’t call Ma Rainey a biopic.
Viola’s role is biographical. It’s a real-life character.
I’m aware of that, but it’s not really “biographical” in the sense that it’s not really telling the story of her life. She’s not even the main character. It’s historical fiction.
The role is 100% biographical. Viola is not creating anything from scratch. She created the character based on the behavioral and maneirisms of a real-life person.
The same could be said about The Last King of Scotland and The Hours, just to name two, and nobody would argue that those are not biographical roles. You may say the film is not a biopic in the traditional sense, but it’s a real-life person.
I think this doesn’t quite get the source material right. Especially when it comes to a performer, a biopic tries to at least sketch out a career — highs and lows, setbacks and breakthroughs, friends and family who helped/hurt.
With Ma Rainey you have to look at the plot. After performance flashbacks and a few minutes showing the principals arriving, the entire action unfolds in a recording studio in a single afternoon. That’s the playing field, not her life.
The movie evokes Ma’s career but the story turns on her power. When we meet her in this recording studio her career is largely behind her. But that’s precisely why August Wilson set the play when he did, when Ma was at her peak. She can’t even hail a taxi outside on the Chicago streets. But inside the studio, with the force of her talent, she rules.
Tragically. Because she needn’t have fired Levee so abruptly, humiliating him. It’s her power, her thrashing and sashaying about, that drives events. It’s not her life we’re seeing, but the double-edged sword of her astonishing gifts.
To the sake of coherence, is Judy a biopic for you? All of your explanation could be used to justify why Judy is not a biopic.
To the sake of coherence, is Judy a biopic for you? All of your explanation could be used to justify why Judy is not a biopic.
I haven’t seen Judy. I had in mind, for example, Get On Up, Bohemian Rhapsody, Rocketman, Ray, Walk the Line, even Jersey Boys. You got a whole sense of the performers’ trials and tribulations, defeats and comebacks. How they managed their life and career. This movie isn’t doing that with Ma Rainey
I agree with you. My point is that it’s still a real-person role where Viola needed to learn the way of acting, speaking and dressing of someone that existed. It’s not created from scratch.
True. It’s about a person who actually lived, a figure out of history. Like, say, Oldman in Darkest Hour. That movie doesn’t cover a great deal of Churchill’s life, so it’s not a biopic, but it does capture a crucial moment in history and in his political career.
In the end my point is that, for some reason, it seems to me the industry thinks it’s most demanding to play these types of real-life roles than non-real life ones. I can’t say I agree with that mindset but it seems to be the case.
You may have quite a good point. I really will give it some thought. Off the top of my head, I wonder how often the industry actually does award these more demanding performances — O’Toole in Lawrence, O’Toole and Burton in Beckett, Fiennes in Schindler’s List. Compelling performances drawn from real life don’t always win the day. But as I say, you’ve piqued my curiosity. This deserves a careful look.
O’Toole and Burton? That’s fairly easy. Not well-beloved just like Close. Respected but not well-liked in a personal level.
Fiennes? Well, Tommy Lee Jones won for The Fugitive undeservingly over Fiennes for the same reason he undeservingly lost for Lincoln – screen time. There is way more screen time balance between Ford and Lee Jones in The Fugitive compared to Neeson and Fiennes in Schindler’s List. Waltz obliterates Jones screen time in 2012.
Okay. Thanks for the info.
Ralph Fiennes should’ve won his Oscar for ”Schindler’s List.”
And he should’ve been nominated for ”The Grand Budapest Hotel.”
Yes for both. He didn’t get nominated for Budapest for another informal rule I hate the industry uses every year. Clear leads in ensemble pieces tend to be overlooked when campaigned at the proper (Lead) category.
True. At least the Golden Globes nominated Fiennes for Best Actor in a Comedy. Unfortunately, the Academy seldom gives comic performances their due.
I don’t think it’s that voters think it’s more demanding, I think those roles win more awards because it’s easier to identify what’s good about the performance. When it’s a real person people can look at the performance and say they got all of the idiosyncrasies right, whereas with a fictional character, there is disagreement about how the character should be portrayed.
A good example is Gillian Anderson’s performance in The Crown. If Margaret Thatcher didn’t exist, and Anderson played a fictional character that way, a lot of people would call it a weird, overly affected performance. But because there was a real Thatcher who really did look and talk like that, it’s easy to see that it’s a good portrayal.
Also, when they vote, they don’t vote just for the performance but also for the role. They’re honoring both. When DDL won for his third, AMPAS finally had a chance to give an Oscar to Abraham Lincoln.
I wouldn’t consider Lincoln a biopic either. It’s a historical play, but it’s not a biography of Lincoln. August Wilson wasn’t writing a biography of Rainey either.
creepingdoubt, I just want to repeat and amplify this terrific paragraph:
Yes! Ma Rainy is the protagonist in the layer of narrative that involves Ma Rainey vs the white recording industry. But she’s the antagonist in the layer of narrative that involves Levee being hit with a series of power-play humiliations that finally make him snap.
Ma Rainey is of course the hero of her own arc, but Ma Rainey is the villain in Levee’s arc. It’s a sharply-faceted role that August Wilson wrote and it takes an incredibly masterful performance to pull it off.
We’re all lucky that Carey Mulligan and Andra Day are equally masterful. But it’s unlucky for them that they can’t all three be lucky at the same awards event.
Ryan, thanks for the repetition and amplification. You’ve also outpaced me by doing what I didn’t, namely, made plain the contrasting dimensions Viola had to master. Ma has already instructed Cutler to fire Levee once the tour reaches Memphis, where the dismissal could have been handled discreetly. But Ma, further enraged at any challenge to her authority, goes ahead and does the deed in front of everyone. That’s classic playwriting: hubris. Also, Wilson leaves us free to imagine outcomes after the close of the action. Meaning, in 15 or 20 minutes after what we see, someone is going to arrive at Ma’s hotel to inform her of what’s happened. Imagine the look on her face. Fine playwriting allows you to picture exactly that.
You’re so good at this!
**blushes**
One thing I have not read yet this season is how much August Wilson owes to Amiri Baraka’s Dutchman in relation to Levi’s character. See Clay’s final monologue and compare it to Levi’s about what’s inside the body that no one else knows or sees. The problem here is that Levi’s comes near the beginning of the film, and Boseman stays in that same overwrought key throughout the rest of the film.
Hmmm . . . “overwrought”? I’d say at odds, at loose ends, even desperate, and finally all the way past overwrought to deadly. But given the horrific loss of his parents, what’s been Levee’s “normal” since childhood? He’s stayed “wrought”, if you will. Now he’s broken away from his fellow musicians in order to create and play a different sort of music, and they won’t even give him props for the attempt. On top of that, Sturdyvant, who’d promised him a chance, suddenly turns on him and declines to record his songs, offering to buy them for peanuts.
To ask Levee to dial it back is asking what he can’t do. And, yes, therefore, he’s undeniably dangerous.
It’s been decades since I’ve seen Dutchman on stage and screen (with those smashing Shirley Knight and Al Freeman, Jr. performances), so I’d have to check your reference. But I have trouble imagining Wilson borrowing from Baraka. He’d surely know right off that they were different sorts of writers. But maybe he did appropriate in some way, and you’ve spotted it. I’ll look.
I don’t know if people are pissed off with Glenn Close losing because that screwed up their own passionate predictions or that they genuinely think Glenn’s performance is head and shoulders above the rest. It’s hard to read posts that say Youn won only because she’s a POC and that her performance is shit. But I’ll venture to say most people who saw both films actually thought Youn had the better performance. Fine if you think these awards should be created to reward career veterans to right past wrongs, but don’t pretend Glenn Close, while a legend who deserve many Oscars in her career prior to 2021, gave the best supporting performance of the year.
Same too with Viola Davis. The vitriol against Viola is kind of shocking. It now seems as if she’s given a Razzie worthy performance whose claim to a nomination is only to name-check a black actress and what a travesty she stole the SAG from glorious Carey who gave the best performance in the history of acting. Whatever.
I personally love Youn winning and I think Viola gave a better performance than Carey. And it has nothing to do with anyone being POC, white, black, Asian, gay, straight, trans, fat, thin, young, old, won or never won anything before in their acting lives.
I’m upset because I don’t think Youn’s performance is unique enough to justify Close becoming an 8-time Oscar loser. I can’t see how Alan Arkin in LMS is such a trashed performance by Film Twitter and here and they love Youn’s. This category is weak… If Close can’t beat 3 1st time nominees (with the best performance being the daughter of Borat) and the one that bizarrely beat her in one of the most infamous Oscar calls of all time, she won’t ever win an Oscar.
Performance wise, I think you can’t really compare, just sticking to the biopic turns, what Andra Day does and Viola does. If it’s in that direction… Day clearly gives the best performance and Viola just won an Oscar.
Close loss two years ago was the worst oscar moment in history!After winning all the precursors..Oh that hurt..Now they want to overlook her again for another flavor of the week.
Peter O’Toole and Robert Altman come to mind. They get honorary awards and then get passed over when they’re nominated again.
All awards are subjective, but for the record, Youn Yuh-jung has won more critics’ prizes for Supporting (”Minari”) than anyone else in her category. The Korean, who’s a legend in her home country, has racked up more than 25 wins, which includes the L.A. Film Critics Circle, the National Board of Review and the N.Y. Film Critics Online. Maria Bakalova has won the second-most critics’ prizes (about 15 of them) for Supporting Actress. And IMDB lists only 1 group, the Nevada Film Critics Society, that chose Glenn Close as its winner.
Bakalova won the 4 most prestigious critics awards – National Society, New York, LA and Boston. National Board I consider as much of a critics awards as the Critics Choice Awards. The critics darling of the season was Bakalova, not Yuh-jung Youn, who has volume of wins but Bakalova has ALL the wins that matter the most among professional critics.
Youn won LAFCA, which as you said, is as prestigious as NYFCC and National Society.
I don’t know what to think about this until Jesus comes along and explains to us how SAG voters failed to “correctly deconstruct” Yuh-jung Youn.
No she didn’t. Youn won LA and Boston, but I suppose those 2 awards are probably hacks who name-check winners to make a point about diversity. Don’t pay any attention to them.
True. Still… 2×2. London, the most prestigious in the UK, breaks the tie. Youn winning is not a statement in diversity. It’s just Alan Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine all over again. Just that.
It’s always struck me as bizarre that English-speaking actors are so much “better” (as per awards organizations) than actors in any other language. Is Kat Hepburn really the greatest film actress of all time? Is Parasite really the first non-English language film to be worthy of the Oscar? If Oscar were fair, there’d be over a dozen non-English Best Pics and many more non-English performance awards: Italian, Swedish, German, Russian, Japanese, Chinese, Spanish, Hindi, etc.
It’s not that English-speaking actors are “better” than actors in another language, it’s more that most foreign language films don’t have distribution deals that meet the eligibility requirements for most American awards ceremonies. For the Oscars, they’d have to play a specific number of showings per day for a specific number of weeks in one specific county in the United States, and most foreign films don’t bother because unless they already have traction in that market with local critics/audiences, it’s not really worth it. Also, people don’t like reading subtitles, unfortunately. But more the first thing.
I guess I’m surprised that all the great European films from the 60s and thereabouts didn’t meet the requirements. Film buffs talk as if Godard was always playing just around the corner.
Oh, so she did win one! Interesting…
I still think Glenn shouldn’t have worn that gold lame dress that year–the second I saw her in that, I guessed that it was picked because it would look so snappy next to an Oscar statuette, and all I could think was “Oh, honey…you just jinxed yourself!” (Yes, Meryl did it for The Iron Lady, but Meryl is Meryl, and can get away with things that mere mortals dare not approach…and I’m not entirely joking about that, either.) Clearly Olivia didn’t really expect to win that year; I’m reasonably certain her “HOLY SHIT! Did THAT just happen?!?” expression was not faked. Sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes the bear just climbs a tree and flips you the bird from the top–you never can say for sure. (Sometimes I think this site’s motto ought to be “Shit Happens,” because that’s pretty much sums up awards in general anyway.)
Anyway…Glenn is a terrific actress, and clearly deserves to win at some point; I just have to admit that I’d rather see her do it for a different performance and film. It’s not up to me to make that call, though, so we’ll just have to see what happens.
After all this time, I just ask for a reflection about this statement “I just have to admit that I’d rather see her do it for a different performance and film.”
If you are talking about the past, I agree. She should have won for Dangerous Liaisons, The Wife and The Big Chill.
If you are talking about the future, it’s ageist bullshit. Close, considering a loss this year, is in a range only 2 actresses won Oscars in history. Both lead and supporting. This is the bright future for actresses above the 70s in an industry and audiences that cannot appreciate a unique role and performance like The Wife, something that is bestowed to a non-Streep actress once or twice a decade only. And in the miracle she ends up having one of those roles again, people will fall for any biopic crap.
Yes, she should have won for Dangerous Liasons, hands down. What’s surprising, if not shocking, was that she *didn’t* win for The Wife–she seemed pretty damn close to a sure thing that year, and while Olivia Colman is a terrific actress, no one could fake being as shocked as she was when her name was read instead. Yes, she’d done well in some of the preliminaries, but all the energy *did* seem to be with Glenn that year, even (especially?) because it was a movie hardly anyone saw. It was seemingly “her turn,” so WTF happened? Did she (and some of the other bridesmaids of Oscars past, such as Richard Burton) piss off someone somehow? Is it just really lousy luck? Bad karma? Price and Waterhouse fucking up big time? Honestly, it’s just really baffling how this has happened to Glenn over the years, and seems to some degree to be happening w/Amy Adams (who was really screwed out of a nomination for Arrival).
At this point I can’t help but wonder if some of these episodes were just extremely close calls, with only a handful of votes making the difference. I know the Academy would really, really, really prefer not to have another tie in any of the Acting categories again (last one was Katharine Hepburn and Barbra Streisand in 1969, Kate winning for playing my 26th great-grandmother–sorry folks, but I’m still tickled about being a direct descendant of Eleanor of Aquitaine), but I can’t help but think that, in certain categories at least, it might be a good idea to agree that, if 5 or fewer votes separate two candidate, it ought to be considered a tie and awarded accordingly. If there are three candidates that close (unlikely, but possible), drop it to 3 votes or less; if it’s still a tie, fuck it–just give all of them their damn statuette and call it a day, because some years really are loaded with an assload of amazing performances, and it seems a shame to count someone out for the role of a lifetime when it’s that damn close.
I think they’re comparable and I don’t feel qualified to make the comparison. It’s just too close. On a personal level, Glenn’s performance (and character) made more of an impression on me (perhaps due to my background/personal history), but that’s neither here nor there.
I actually have Olivia Cooke in first now. 🙂 Even though I didn’t love Sound of Metal, overall, as well-made and interesting as it was.
Viola is excellent but I have a lot less trouble ranking Carey ahead of her than Close ahead of Youn or vice-versa. I just think Carey’s part is objectively much, much harder to pull off and she’s more memorable, has more screen time, creates more of an emotional connection (sure, that’s mostly the screenplay, but I would definitely say it’s her as well) and so on…
As I have been saying for months, Glenn’s performance is more accomplished than Youn but…
1. She has a reputation in the industry and it doesn’t seem that she is well liked in a personal level. She is competing against a “blank book” for the industry once again. Someone hardly well-known.
2. Youn’s character is more likable.
3. JD Vance didn’t write the source material for Minari.
Yeah, seems you had it right all along – I remember your making these arguments before. 🙂 It’s cruel that they decided to nominate her at all, though, if they really don’t want to give her the win, yet again… (I guess maybe the actors do, but not the general AMPAS population.)
The actors like her, but not AMPAS members as a whole. Same goes for Meryl with her million of nods and zero wins for the longest of stretches. It took Weistein’s machine to get her her third.
Although, having lost SAG, maybe the actors don’t either…
It only needs one actress to yield 21% of the vote to win Best Actress. The question is which one? Although I would love to say all 5 have a legitimate shot, i think all but Kirby do (her performance is along with Mulligan’s my favourites this season, but even if she wins BAFTA, I don’t see her winning the Oscar).
Mathematically and logically, it has to be a lot more than 21%. Even 25% seems very low/unlikely, however close the race is. Gotta get at least close to 30%, I figure…
“Mathematically and logically,” it’s also interesting to wonder how often (or how seldom) anyone ever wins an acting or directing Oscar with a majority of the ballots.
A majority winner would mean the 4 nominees who don’t win would have to split (at most) 49% of the ballots 4 ways. The winner gets 51% but one of the “losers” gets 10% or 5% — ouch. That’s got to be the only reason they never release the vote tallies from Oscar history. It would sometimes be cruel to reveal how few votes a revered Hollywood legend got.
Yeah, that has got to be extremely rare too!
If they don’t want to hurt anybody’s feelings, they could just release the top 3’s in every category (which is what I think those early Oscar year lists showed), so nobody would even know who was last, how close they were to third and so on… It would still be incredibly interesting. Like, they could put together a book with all of these – make some money, too. I’m sure many people would be interested. And, of course, they could do this only years later, to be even more certain nobody’s too bummed or otherwise affected by the knowledge – but I don’t think they need to wait for quite so many decades… Maybe 10-20 years?
I mean, 21% is strictly-speaking possible, but I have to imagine it’s never been the case and never will be. (Nor will it get close.) The rest would all have to be between 19% and 20% for that to be the winning percentage.
Absolutely, Claudiu. I’m no math wizard like you are, but I know with just basic arithmetic that in order for any nominee to win with as little as 20%+1 it would mean that all 5 nominees had to be neck and neck, all clustered together.
By coincidence, I had a thought about that earlier today.
Wouldn’t we love to see the vote tallies revealed for a year like 1962:
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/1378770213898948613
Well, basic arithmetic is what I used as well, of course. And I am most definitely no math wizard! I was too lazy (and chess-focused, although I displayed my laziness there, as well, plenty) in school and beyond for that… I just think I have sound logic – I’ve always been told that and, over time, I’ve come to realize it’s probably true. I may well be shit in terms of many other IQ-related skills 🙂 – but that one, at last, I think I’m pretty decent at…
I would be SO happy if they released vote tallies, or even just standings, like they have for the very early Oscar years! 🙂 Reading through those was one of the most fun things I’ve ever done…
Ryan…I think this was another case of “it’s Peck’s turn”; I mean, over Peter O’Toole in one of the greatest performances of all time? I would rank him fifth here. Ditto Bancroft, whom I love, but she’s re-creating a performance she’s given hundreds of times. All of the others would have ranked higher in my list. BTW…this is also the year Patty Duke won over Angela Lansbury.
My point is that my theory is it will be a very close race.
4 actresses could easily earn 20% + each. 20, 21, 22, 24 and for example the 5th nominee gets 13%. That would be a very close race. And i think this is a year where this scenario could well happen. There’s narratives now for 4 of the 5 if not all 5 as Kirby has hit every guild with at least a nomination. Only she and McDormand have that.
That part does seem guaranteed. 🙂 I just don’t think there will ever be (or has ever been) a race quite that close, so as to have the winner get only 21%.
The stats have done well in predicting precursors so far this year… Especially in the top category.
In terms of Best Picture, I guess I was right to still be worried about Trial making a comeback… Now, it’s one WGA win away from being stats-valid – but I guess, unless it wins BAFTA screenplay, we can’t really look at that one as a fluke, as with Moonlight losing to Hidden Figures at SAG. Anyway, it’s not far away enough from the trajectories of several previous winners to be ruled out completely, although it of course remains not stats-valid.
This also mostly ends Promising Young Woman’s challenge – I guess Braveheart remains a precedent, sort of (that had GG & BFCA directing wins, though – Crash is the only BP winner in the PGA era to not have either picture or director wins at PGA/DGA/GG/BFCA/BAFTA, and Crash dominated SAG), but really it seems pretty much done at this point. Seems like wishful thinking and nothing else. Looks like the nominations ranking stat is safe for this year… I guess Minari still kind of has a case (although the ensemble loss surely does hurt it – but Moonlight overcame it, even if, obviously, from an overall much, much better position, in terms of precursor wins and nominations), since Youn won. Speaking of which:
– the last time SAG, BFCA and HFPA all came up with different winners for supporting actress, in 2008, a fourth person, the BAFTA winner (Swinton), won the Oscar; literally impossible this year, as the only two BAFTA+Oscar nominees are the SAG/BFCA winners;
– the previous time, in 2005, the SAG winner (who also then won BAFTA), Blanchett, took home the Oscar;
– the only other time this happened, in 2001, again a third person won the Oscar (Harden), and she didn’t even win BAFTA; she wasn’t even nominated, so this would perhaps be a precedent for Glenn Close, although not really, because Harden had the critical support (NYFCC win, etc.) and Glenn doesn’t;
– just for the record, the BFCA winner has beaten the SAG winner to the Oscar before (one time, long ago, even with both nominated at the Oscars), but only when they also won the Globe (which Bakalova lost, even if in a different category); on the other hand, Youn wasn’t even nominated there (Harden is the only one who’s won at the Oscars in this category in spite of that, but I guess since there’s precedent, and given the genre bias, Youn will probably beat Bakalova and may be the stats favorite, even, given that winning the BFCA alone has never been enough and winning just SAG has, even if, in this specific category, just the one time, but I guess that’s normal, given how seldom the situation even comes up to begin with – BAFTA may provide a more conclusive answer).
the acceptance speeches are on youtube.
Do you mean full, or the same ones shown during the one-hour broadcast? (You probably mean the latter.)
The latter. We didn’t get the broadcast here so was chasing the speeches. Just thought I’d share what I found
The State of Actress Race:
Day – Globe
Mulligan – CC
Davis – SAG
McDormand or Kirby or neither – BAFTA
Holy shit did that ever happen? Not a single actress is going into the Oscar night with more than 1 major precursor.
So what does happen from here?
Day is in the worst position (same goes for Kirby if she wins BAFTA) cause no support for her movie outside of her nomination.
Davis has Boseman and while 2 actors from the same movie didn’t win since 1997 (I think?), that may work to her advantage.
Mulligan has big support system cause her movie hit all above the line noms that it could (Picture, Director, Script, Editing) but with the focus shifting on Fennell, there’s concern that Script might be the movie’s only reward.
McDormand has the same support system and sure-fire Director winner who’s been the face of Nomadland more than McDormand.
Fuck, tough to make a call. Right now, it looks like Davis nonsense will come to pass but we won’t know til the envelop is opened unless they telegraph it with a presenter like they did SAG.
If it’s ever happened, it’s not in this category. 🙂 Checked and confirmed.
2 actors from the same movie have only won if their movie was BP-nominated, though, if I’m not mistaken, and in 1997 there were only 5 slots for BP, etc…
“there’s concern that Script might be the movie’s only reward.”
I’ve been concerned about this for a while, honestly. Although winning screenplay+acting but not picture seems to happen enough – even happened twice in the current preferential era (Django, Precious)
this is a strange year so anything can happen. The most talked about performance (PYW) isn’t a sweeper. No one is sweeping in Actress. 3 or 4 will enter the final stretch with only 1 major precursor unlike Actor and Supporting Actor that are set in stone. So what happened this year? Why Actress and SupActress didn’t click with voters in the same way the men did? Why every awards body is awarding a different one (though Youn could win BAFTA as well)?
We all whinge every year when every award show rubber stamps the same 4 winners – this year, there is so much hubris that there is so little pre cursor predictability. Not aimed at you, but always interesting to read both. Some of us are never happy. I like the fact that Lead and Supp Actress are pretty wide open this year and will be so until the night.
I didn’t mind it but now that it’s looking like the worst is gonna win it suddenly isn’t so fun.
Based on my own impressions (and, in part, the evidence), I would say in lead actress they love too many performances and in supporting they probably don’t love any of them, or at least not enough.
or they just don’t love anything in either. none of the movies exactly invite watching.
Also possible, I guess…
I’m extremely happy for Viola, she’s definitely a much deserving winner and my second pick this year in the Best Actress category but I so, so wanted Carey to take this for her instantly iconic, timely, unforgettable turn in Promising Young Woman and seeing her win her much overdue first Oscar now sadly seems unlikely. If there was a year to break stats it’s this one obviously and anything can happen in this crazy race this year but it’s nuts how the Best Actress category had shaped up thus far and it breaks my heart that it doesn’t feel like Carey is winning.
However impressed I was of Andra Day’s strong acting debut in Lee Daniels’ The United States vs Billie Holiday she’s nowhere near the depth and complexity of her competition so if Carey loses I hope at least it’s to Viola’s brilliant turn as Ma Rainey and not Andra’s work.
Really it could go any way right now, Frances or Vanessa could very much win as well. I just wish Carey turns out to be an unforgettable shocker for such an unforgettable turn and grabs the big trophy. To say she deserves it is an understatement and then some.
I wouldn’t say it’s unlikely…
Well yep, I know and I still hold some hope for THE PERFORMANCE OF THE YEAR to be recognized as such from the AMPAS but it at least seems more unlikely than not.
Kudos to you Claudius for the truly interesting stats you present btw :))) I hope Carey pulls it off in the end. Man, she is just so damn good and she’s been that way from the very beginning. She’s the winner as far as I’m concerned 🙂
Thanks!
Yeah, I think there’s definite hope – but I’ll probably be predicting Davis, I’ve decided after some more thought. And I prefer it that way – I don’t want to predict Carey and be doubly-disappointed.
Carey Mulligan is DEAD.
i’m sure she still has a pulse!
I obviously meant her character
there might still be a sequel…
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/1345104058609184774
Taji is thinking what a CATastrophe it was that Carey Mulligan did not win.
Sorry i am being a sour puss! 🙁
we know not to fuck with Taji when he gets that look on his face.
…Long live Carey Mulligan!… 🙂
Well, the clear stats favorite (as much as one can say that about SAG stats), Trial (which – blasphemy – I also liked a little bit more than Minari, having finally also seen the latter, a few days ago), won ensemble, for a change, so at least that’s good… Of course, when presented with two equally valid stats options for stunt ensemble (Wonder Woman 1984 and Mulan), I chose wrong, as always. :)) Not a big upset in supporting actress – Bakalova’s stats always looked beatable and had precedents for being broken, even if not particularly recent ones. Davis winning… while she’s great and, in my opinion, deserving or at least close enough… is annoying… (And a bit of a stats upset, as the only other SAG winner in this category not in a BP nominee and that lost the Critics Choice for Best Actress, in the BFCA era, was Halle Berry.) At least Frances didn’t win – that would have been even worse for Carey’s chances.
Anyway, we’ve definitely got our mess… This is literally the first time in Best Actress that nobody has won at least two of the three major precursors announced so far this year (SAG, Critics Choice, Golden Globes – two categories for the latter), so no full precedent there… And none of the four different such winners this year is even nominated at BAFTA. (Which I bet has also never happened before.)
SAG winners that won none of the other 3 (Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA):
2002 – Berry (beat a BFCA+GG drama winner at the Oscars, so a tougher challenge – clearly an excellent precedent for Viola)
1996 – Sarandon (beat a BFCA+GG comedy winner, so another great precedent)
BFCA winners that won none of the other 3 (SAG, Globe, BAFTA):
2017 – Portman (lost the Oscar to a SAG+BAFTA+GG comedy winner, not really the same situation)
2003 – Moore (lost the Oscar to a SAG+GG drama winner, not the same but reasonably close, I guess)
1998 – Carter (lost the Oscar to a SAG+GG comedy winner, again not the same but definitely close)
Not counting years with ties. Co-winners are obviously even more vulnerable.
Globe drama winners that won none of the other 3 (SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA):
2017 – Huppert (lost the Oscar to a SAG+BAFTA+GG comedy winner; she was snubbed by SAG & BAFTA too)
2006 – Huffman (lost to a SAG+BAFTA+BFCA+GG comedy winner, clearly nowhere near the same situation)
1996 – Stone (lost the Oscar to a lone SAG winner)
Personally, I think this mostly means any of three can win the Oscar (meaning probably not Day or Kirby, whose stats are still horrible). With Davis now likely the front-runner, looking at the above list of precedents, although the BP snub and Boseman’s impending win should make it less likely for her to win there, which might counterbalance things – or not.
Carey could still prevail in the end.
No, her chances are below zero. Don’t delude urself
Definitely!
Boseman was upstaging Davis until SAG went fuck it and awarded both. incredibly lazy choice, 7th fuckin SAG win, just stupid. Now it opens the door for AMPAS repeat. May ratings plummet so low that no one witnesses that atrocity if it happens.
Does PYW not winning anything at SAG have any effect on it’s chances of winning Best Picture if it manages to win ACE comedy and BAFTA best film after also winning WGA original screenplay? I mean stats wise.
Definitely has an effect. SAG ensemble OR acting wins are often crucial in determining the BP winner, particularly in unclear years. (Which this one may not be, though.)
I don’t use BAFTA because their record sucks, they clearly have very different sensibilities from AMPAS and the British bias. Plus Nomadland is just never losing that, after winning BFCA+GG. ACE also is no good (in terms of its winners – nom stat is strong) at predicting BP, so I don’t use that either. This isn’t just personal preference, either – my system just doesn’t work anymore, if I add either of those. Not even for just the preferential era. The Revenant would be the stats favorite if I added BAFTA. La La Land would be if I added ACE.
Obviously, if ProYo did win both of those, it would look like a very strong threat, but I think the preferential system alone (which Nomadland got through successfully at PGA) would be reason-enough for it to not win. The SAG acting loss would also look pretty bad.
Yeah, the fact actors didn’t give it a single win and didn’t nominate it for ensemble when it has a ton of actors, even in small roles, is very telling. And also the preferential ballot stuff at the PGA makes Nomadland a very strong frontrunner. I just cound BAFTA in my “system” (not very developed) because it is a televised award, but I agree with your “different sensibilities” argument.
I saw you said Minari still has a chance. How would that work after it’s SAG ensemble loss? Is Youn’s win in supporting enough to keep it in the race? What is the path moving forward for it if there is still one? In my eyes it is done, but maybe in your system it still has a chance.
I don’t think my system will ever pick it 🙂 (Minari) – calculations need to be done before I can say for sure. I’ll do that after DGA, to be absolutely sure that goes as planned – no real point doing it before then. But yes, the acting win seems to keep it in as a semi-valid winner, since it’s WGA-ineligible (had it been nominated and lost there, it would be different), has a single snub that I count (Oscar editing) – although I’ve been considering adding BAFTA Film to that list (it works as a nomination stat only, which is how I have ACE, and would add a second “picture” precursor to my system, which would make it 2 for each category – well, a few more for acting, but you get the picture -, but I have to decide whether I’m too scared of the way the British bias might skew things in the future, even if it hasn’t so far), which would make it a stats-invalid winner, most probably (more research would be required here) – and has a major guild win, even if it’s just acting at SAG.
Oh, I remembered: my system does already have it as dead, indeed, because it didn’t win PGA/DGA/WGA. But again the WGA ineligibility makes that not 100% reliable, potentially. Also, as long as the front-runner isn’t faultless (and, with just the one SAG acting nomination, Nomadland most definitely isn’t), there’s always a chance of an upset and Minari isn’t in much worse a position that ProYo (with its nominations ranking problem and zero SAG wins) and Trial (with the directing snub and WGA loss, but SAG win). Everything else looks pretty much dead, though – I would be calling locks were it not for Nomadland’s SAG snub(s).
As for personally, I haven’t thought Minari stood any chance ever since I first heard about it. 🙂 Another movie with a Korean cast winning, back-to-back? Nope. Never happening. But, if the evidence had contradicted that position, I would have changed my mind, of course. I’m all about facts. But it hasn’t, really (zero Globe noms outside of foreign, horrible stat, no BFCA BP/BD/screenplay win, 0/25 stat as well, the BAFTA Film snub, also 0% since the 2000 date change, etc.), so I don’t actually think it can win, myself, and I’m thus not at all surprised it lost ensemble, either. I just can’t rule it out for BP at the Oscars via industry stats with 100% confidence, so I’m keeping it in mind. But it’s definitely close to being ruled out. (Won’t get any closer, though – there’s nothing relevant left. Except DGA, which is stats-locked for Zhao.)
You can let me know when you’ve developed your system more thoroughly, if you’d like. 🙂 Maybe we can compare methodologies, learn from each other, etc. – there’s always stuff to learn, it’s a complicated thing, predicting BP. But a lot, lot of fun…
Basically you’ve just confirmed with even more evidence what I already suspected. Thanks for the thorough analisys! I think we will have a very similar year as 2017/2018 season with The Shape of Water. Nomadland wins Picture, Director, Cinematography, and maybe Editing, and the two screenplays are bp nominees that don’t win anything else. PYW and The Father are looking very good to win at BAFTA and then repeat at the Oscars like Parasite and Jojo did last year.
🙂
Yeah, maybe The Father wins BAFTA screenplay. I really have no idea what to predict there. 🙂
I’m thinking it’s either Davis or Day. I was rooting for Mulligan as it’s my favourite performance of the five, though they’re all so damn good in their own way…I just don’t see her holding the statue this year.
I did have that – gut feeling – after watching Day in TUSVBH that she’s winning the Oscar. It’s that kind of raw performance that can win it. The last Best Actress winner for a film with NO other Oscar nominations was Moore for Still Alice (2014); before that was Theron in Monster (2003). So, it’s possible.
Theron in Monster is one of the best winners ever and Moore was a veteran with an overdue narrative. I don’t think a singer in her first acting role can match the narrative, passion and also the quality of those performances. Davis is way more likely, she has an award that has overlap with Oscars and she has sort of a narrative as she has never won in lead and it would make her the second black actress to win. I know Andra also has the last thing I said, but somehow Viola just seems like the option they would go to for such a thing.
I can see that narrative playing out…
Day is nominated. That says a lot on its own. The performance moved voters. She won the GG Drama award. I suppose if she’d won another big one it’d be huge.
Yeah, GG drama is important because they have predicted winners in lead before with more accuracy than SAG has. But it also has no overlap with the academy, so I don’t know if I truly see them as having influence or just having good luck and two chances at getting it right because of their split for drama and comedy. I guess it’s also just a gut feeling and the fact that Viola’s movie is more in the conversation than Andra’s. Also Davis is a far better known actress with tighter ties with the industry and the academy. Those factors make me think she has more of a chance.
The Davis-for-Lead narrative reminds of me of Kevin Spacey’s second win — it’s been only a few years since her supporting win and she’s more than delivered in the years since, so voters might feel it’s time to reward her the trophy that more accurately fits her status.
Day’s stats are too horrible. It’s true that winners kind of in that range, stats-wise, happen in years like this, with awards split all over the place, when they do at all – but even those almost always (Coburn is the only real exception) have some major critics love! Day has had none. It’s Davis or Mulligan or maybe McDormand.
Yeah, I’m not thinking stats-logic with this one. The Best Actress race is too random this year. Even Supporting Actress is a riot. The one thing that the discussions today has got me thinking about is that Day’s film is not in the – now – without the SAG or BAFTA noms. Though she got the nomination… I’m really going with a gut feeling to break all stats. If I had to choose right now, I’d pick Davis. I just think it’s more of a Davis or Day than the others… Mulligan needed that SAG win. McDormand… I don’t know. I’m in awe of her performance though. It’d be beautiful to see her win it!
Davis winning with just SAG is also without precedent for the last 20 years or so, at least. More like 25.
Day winning is entirely without precedent, at least in this category – I quote myself:
“Globe drama winners that won none of the other 3 (SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA):
2017 – Huppert (lost the Oscar to a SAG+BAFTA+GG comedy winner; she was snubbed by SAG & BAFTA too)
2006 – Huffman (lost to a SAG+BAFTA+BFCA+GG comedy winner, clearly nowhere near the same situation)
1996 – Stone (lost the Oscar to a lone SAG winner)”
Yeah, Mulligan probably did need the SAG win… But I wouldn’t say it’s certain.
Davis winning with just SAG is also without precedent for the last 20 years or so, at least. More like 25.
Day winning is entirely without precedent, at least in this category – I quote myself:
“Globe drama winners that won none of the other 3 (SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA):
2017 – Huppert (lost the Oscar to a SAG+BAFTA+GG comedy winner; she was snubbed by SAG & BAFTA too)
2006 – Huffman (lost to a SAG+BAFTA+BFCA+GG comedy winner, clearly nowhere near the same situation)
1996 – Stone (lost the Oscar to a lone SAG winner)”
Just looking at the surface….
If they have a choice/chance to award only the 2nd black actress ever a lead performance Oscar and they have comparable performances to choose from. (both playing biographical singing roles) in films that aren’t nominated for BP the obvious choice is Viola Davis.
Regardless of what you think of the performance subjectively, she’s a powerhouse actress who should’ve won this award 8 years ago. No one 20+ years from now will complain that she’s a 2 time Oscar winner.
While Andra Day may never go on to do anything of note again for all we know. And from what I’ve heard her film isn’t even good.
I always try to have foresight when looking at what really should win. And if we’re picking between these 2 actresses I think the choice is a clear as Davis 😉
Neither Day’s nor Davis’ films are very good; one is a narrative mess, the other a filmed play. One Night in Miami, although also static, had for me better performances.
🙂 Absolutely. Day could siphon votes away from Davis, though, which could help Mulligan. Difficult to say… I’ll be predicting Davis, anyway, I’m almost sure. I’ve decided the most logical interpretation of the stats is that she’s favorite. But a profoundly vulnerable favorite and Mulligan could easily win.
Lets begin this trend #JUSTICEFORMULLIGAN
Seconded! 🙂
#RELEASETHEMULLIGANCUT
#BRINGBACKTHEMULLIGANVERSE
So is Viola Davis winning the Oscar??
idk
Fingers crossed Davis and Day aka the lip-syncing legend and the singing legend split votes allowing Mulligan to win. But that may be wishful thinking. All 3 are sitting out BAFTA which may go to McDorman/Kirby or neither. Mess.
My narrow mind doesn’t see the connections between all these previous awards (if…then). Except for the SAG, with a good number of real voters. I still see Mulligan as a clear favorite, regardless of what she has not won.
Performance aside, if trends are to take any part, the movie is more visible, that’s the one women in general will support the most, and Viola has already won one. Ma will also have won another one in the same night.
i like your thinking Rodrigo
There’s something about Mulligan, her role and her character’s fate at the end that’s just not making people want to tick her name.
I was thinking about it and got this. SPOILERS
S
P
O
I
L
E
R
her role isn’t an Oscar bait (historical figure, illness, disability) that they feel comfortable awarding since it isn’t familiar ground/their wheelhouse/comfort zone
revenge aspect could turn off some
the mildness of revenge and her sad fate could turn off those who expected/hoped for Death Wish type of a movie.
“Award WoC” narrative may be too strong to overcome in this category in this particular year
And Close’s role also played to AMPAS’s love for long-suffering housewives–yet she still lost
Coleman wasn’t exactly an original character on a semi-scary revenge spree.
I really hope she’s not the next Glenn Close… 🙁 (Although I also hope she is, in a way, ’cause what a career that would be!)
I didn’t mean to spell gloom and doom for Mulligan re her chances of winning Oscars in her career. It’s an assessment for this year, a combination of her persona and her PYW project. I of course am not saying that she can’t win this year. But that would be mostly due to the weakness of her competition.
Despite the critical praise and the internet love and narratively being “due”, she has a hard time getting serious traction for her Oscar campaign. I think she’s just a little too reserved and distant. Best Acting Oscars is mostly a popularity contest. Furthermore, even if she and her publicists want to reverse that image, the pandemic dampens that opportunity. No parties, no events to show off your charm and desire. And voters just opt for what already are familiar to them, the always passionate Davis or McDormand.
“Cassie” the role — voters don’t just vote for the performance but also for the role. At the start, Cassie is a hero, but her fate (however intellectually sound in the filmmaker’s mind) makes her come off like a loser. The ending didn’t come off tragic but nihilistic (however realistic the filmmaker proclaims it to be).
So the result could be as absurdly simple as this:
Yeah, that’s a very good point, sadly – she’s not the kind of actress people in the industry get excited about voting for… 🙁 Probably the reason she hasn’t been nominated more, as well. (And they do eschew downer endings, in general.) Yeah, I’m starting to think I’ll be predicting Davis. Even if Carey wins Gold Derby. The 100% SAG/GG stat (over the last 34 years, no need to include BAFTA or anything else) is bugging me a lot too. It’s a stat that feels less circumstantial than the “2 lead wins without BP nod” one. Plus, I don’t want to predict her and be wrong, so…
Viola won 6 SAG awards before this one so I thought they wouldn’t over-award her and yet they did. So I’m not making the “recent winner” or “won already” mistake again.
Mulligan has to overcome the unusual role. Davis and Day are in most classic Oscar baits of Oscar baits – singing historical figure. Look who won Best Actress last year? That’s right. And Best Actor the year before? That’s right too. Voters feel comfortable voting for this shit over and over.
so worst case scenario is that AMPAS namecheck Ma’s duo which could well happen.
happens so rarely. Last time was 1997
exactly why it could happen again.
maybe
Kaluuya nis also over the top and far too old for the role
I guess it is fair to say Viola Davis is still in the race. Very surprised she won over Frances Macdormond but it is what it is. Congratulations Viola Davis! Not you her best performance but good as usual.
The big takeaway – never underestimate actor’s love for:
big ham
historical figures
deformity (fat suit, fake hunchback, other)
name checking
love “big ham”
Catherine O’Hara says hold my beer AND my wigs.
And yet they still didn’t consider her For Your Consideration
she was brilliant in that. one of my faves that year.
So they can’t give Glenn Close the award in a weak supporting actress line up?This season is a mess!
I said this before and I will say this again. I never believed the “Glenn Close is not beloved in the industry” rumours but if she can’t win the Oscar this time (8th nod) against a previous winner and 3 first-time nominees, then I will be officially concerned.
I will say though, the Oscar could still be hers on the 25th since the big precursor losses could be due to the fact that she had won them all only 2 years ago (SAG, Golden Globe, Critics Choice) so those organisations clearly didn’t feel like they owed her. The Academy might. And should.
I hope the academy makes it right.Because that would be the only redeeming part of this underwhelming awards season.
They were the only ones who didn’t embrace her two years ago.
This time they could be the only ones who do.
Would be almost poetic.
Do I wish it was for a better film ? I do.
Would I be just happy to see her win at last regardless ? FUCK YES.
I remember two years ago, one of those “anonymous voter tells their choices” columns quoted someone as saying everyone she knew voted for Close–and yet…. I wonder if people assumed everyone else was voting for Close and decided they could safely vote for Colman.
I will say though, the Oscar could still be hers on the 25th
for a split second I thought you meant on her 25th nomination.
oy veh!
I agree with you. Sincerely… that’s FAR from a strong category. Best performance is Colman but her win over Close two years ago was atrocious in every single aspect I can think of: performance, narrative, overdue factor… The duo Malek/Colman is probably the worst set of lead choices in the history of the Oscars. Tops Benigni/Paltrow easily.
If Close can’t win in that category, do you imagine she beating some biopic thing in Lead at any point beyond 75 years old?
Youn’s character is the female version of Alan Arkin in LMS, one of the most trashed acting Oscar wins in the century by members of Film Twitter and this space. I don’t understand the double standards.
Youn still was better than Close for a lot of people. Comparing her to Alan Arkin doesn’t make much sense, very different performances in very different movies. Close should have won in 88 for Dangerous Liaisons. I think she’s sadly getting the Peter O’Toole treatment by now. Colman would win this year if she hadn’t deservedly won two years ago and if the oscars truly rewarded quality IMO.
Sunset Boulevard has a director attached, not really feasible for theatrical release so if Netflix could just pick it up as one of their prestige releases, then she could definitely win with it in lead. As long as a camera pointed at her in the Norma get up, the Oscar is hers even if the film around her isn’t great.
“the Oscar is hers even if the film around her isn’t great.”
Didn’t we get enough of this already? Of winning for a film that is not great? Did it work this year in this weak Supporting Actress lineup? Plus: we only have two performances that won Lead, man or woman, in actual Musicals in the past 50 years. Both in Best Picture runner-ups. No… she is not winning for that unless the movie is incredible.
The longer she’s not the winning, the “overdue” factor fades. AMPAS doesn’t do sentimental favorite anymore. Close would have to be in a relevant, cool or BP movie in order to have a chance. They can give you a due Oscar if you’ve been nominated frequently in recent years. The AMPAS members are younger and more diverse and the name Glenn Close just doesn’t resonate that much to them.
And the old members, well, they’ve probably never cared for her much to begin with.
I think she could also win in a biopic about a very famous person that gets one or two other noms in below the line categories like Meryl with The Iron Lady. But it would have to be the right role at the right time. They still seem to have a preference for real people that are famous, as it’s clearly shown by the strenght of Davis and Day this year and the win for Zellweger last year.
Nope. Glenn Close is not a POC. Thats all that Matters this year. (Sound Racist, but I dont mean it tho.) I love Davis, but please NOT for This. Canz believe Close will lost, but I am happy if its Youn.
Viola was horribly and over the top , let’s award a black actress when she deserves in the time that she deserves like Halle Berry in monster ball was outstanding, but either Viola or a wannabe actress as Day deserves anywhere close to Oscar’s
yes…so over the top it took us out of the “play”
She was good… its just complete category fraud. Its a supporting role. It felt like she was actually in the movie for ten minutes or so.
So 7 times of the previous 26 Actresses that won in Lead at SAG did not go on to win the Oscar.
hope so this time…I like Viola, but that’s a horrible performance
I think stats-wise what is not working for Davis this time is that this is her only big award this season, I think the last time an actress won the lead Oscar with only SAG, was Halle Berry, but I would have to check. Still, that was 20 years ago. If Kirby takes Bafta (possible, hometown court), then Best Actress will be REALLY interesting on Oscar night :
SAG – Viola Davis
Bafta – Vanessa Kirby
Golden Globe – Andra Day
Critics Choice – Carey Mulligan
Lead of the BP frontrunner – Frances McDormand
The thing that leaps out to me from your analysis is the Halle Berry – Viola Davis connection. Berry’s win was huge. Maybe that helps Viola to become only the second woman of colour to win Oscar in Lead. In a batshit crazy year, where no one actress has any clear lead – perhaps this is an important factor for voters at AMPAS.
I also find it ironic that if Davis wins that will mean the two times African-American women won in lead, were the only times in the last two decades when the winners of this category could only win one big precursor award. Clearly some progress has been made but there is still a long way to go for proper inclusion in the awards game.
so true
I think that happens if various awards bodies don’t really like a performance but feel obliged to vote for it. Sweeps happen when people are enamored either with the performance or the combo of performance and narrative. Clearly no one has both this time around in Actress category at least. Boys are doing fine.
Fair enough but I wasn’t talking about a sweep though, just 2-3 of the 4 major awards would have sufficed but the fact that if Davis wins, she and Berry will be the only winners in that category in the last 20 years with only one major precursor award while the 18 white actresses all had at least 2, more often 3 or 4, is a problematic stat.
yes, SAG stopping a stronger performance in a stronger movie from winning the Oscar is problematic.
Then again “stronger” is subjective, for example Ma Rainey got considerably better reviews than the divisive masterpiece and instant cult classic that is Promising Young Woman.
I mena in terms of nominations. That isn’t what I think of either movie, that’s AMPAS liked the one with Picture+Director+Editing+Script more.
And could this be a year where the 5 actresses all score substantial votes each making it an incredibly close race? How to predict out of that? What would be the deciding ingredient for one actress to just score enough votes to topple the rest. Sentiment? Zeitgeist? Career win?
Honestly, even without SAG I still feel like it will be Mulligan in the end. McDormand has no traction in Lead Actress (she will probably make history in BP though) and after her, Mulligan’s film is by far the most beloved by the Academy based on nominations so I think she will win on the basis of all the love voters clearly have for her film and clearly don’t for the other three films in the category.
that is my feeling too, but it’s impossible not to feel a little wobbly after Viola’s win today
Another ironic parallel that to me Viola’s win feels a lot like the completely unexpected win of her Fences co-star, Denzel 4 years ago. Nobody expected it and in the end it didn’t result an Oscar win, it was just one of those SAG surprises, nothing more nothing less. On both occasions voters clearly saw the film for an acting frontrunner (Viola in Fences and Chadwick in Ma Rainey) so that could have helped their co-stars surprise at SAG. Just a theory though.
I just keep thinking of Johnny Depp’s win, and wondering how that happened. Likewise here, Viola in a theatric and hardly on the same scale of a leading role, wins over Mulligan, Kirby and McDormand in naturalistic performances; and as you said Mulligan and McDormand in two of the most recognised films this season.
I think we have to factor in that the voting body here was actors and they tend to embrace “big” instead of understated which is odd because I would expect this crowd to know better than anyone that “big” is not necessarily the biggest accomplishment, nuance and subtleties are much harder to deliver after all.
One comforting thing to think about, if Carey surprises and grabs that statuette away from Viola on Oscar Night — there won’t be anyone at the Dolby Theater to burn it to the ground.
I’m always trying to look on the bright side.
Could be a three way tie like the Globes did in 1988. Davis, Mulligan and McDormand? Or Andra Day? Or Glenn Close could sweep through ala Fatal Attraction style “I’m not going to be IGNORED, Dan’ and crash the category!
Chaos could reign supreme and as you say no oxygen seizing gasps to behold.
Wait, are Dunaway and Beatty booked?
But Denzel was over due with SAG – he had never won. And Affleck won GG, BFCA, BAFTA. This is Davis 6th SAG win. Mulligan’s only industry precursor win will be BFCA.
I thought of Denzel’s win right away as well. 🙂
I think that between BAFTA Jury snub (which mudded the waters considerably) and SAG loss, the former is a bigger blow because it was expected to be her slamdunk. SAG not so sure cause quite a few were convinced, and correct in the end, that SAG liked Davis too much to pass awarding her again. So not an unexpected loss for Mulligan but it hurts because she doesn’t have BAFTA to offset it. At least visibly. BAFTA will vote for whoever is nominated by the jury but whether they’ll back up that winner with AMPAS or Mulligan is a big question mark. Hard to know what to expect.
clear as mud, isn’t it 🙂
ha ha well played!
“Maybe that helps Viola to become only the second woman of colour to win Oscar in Lead”
But Halle didn’t have another WoC to compete with. Davis and Day share this narrative. So unless there’s urgency to award Davis specifically, it could be Day who wins.
yes, it really is going to be a cliff hanger, as BAFTA won’t be of any help – probably muddy it further.
There might be a sense that Davis really is THAT important historically that she deserves a lead award and she deserves to be the first black woman to win two. Like they need to acknowledge her as on par with Denzel?
Why acknowledge her on par with Denzel if she isn’t on par with him? That narrative is forced af. Denzel is far more popular and talented. Fact of life. Also, this is a terrible performance in a mediocre movie. No one is going to look at this performance and win fondly except virtue signalers.
Sadly, you’re probably right – Carey probably can’t beat this. I guess I now have to hope vote-splitting is a thing. 🙂 Because there they also have Andra Day, who might take away some of Viola’s votes.
Halle Berry won NBR as well. (Which, to be fair, is pretty close.) Sarandon (1996) is the only perfect precedent.
good stat, David.
how about this one:
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/1378868864633700357
Wow, wow and um, wow! I did not know most of this, Ryan – how illuminating. Likewise when i learned this year how short Hopkins’ Lector was, I was gobsmacked (a nice Cianti would have been nice). I guess it always is and has been ‘apples and oranges’ but comparing a performance of not even 27 minutes with one nearly an hour longer, makes these contests even less meaningful. Or, they get the category right…..
Kidman had less screen time than Moore (who was Supporting), and i recalled Louise Fletcher being memorable but not on screen that much – but Neal and McDormand were real surprises to me.
And really, Fletcher is the only supporting actress in the bunch, since the rest of them are lead actresses in smaller roles. There’s that kind of category fraud too. Who were the last legitimately supporting actors to win? Leo, Simmons–most everyone else is a lead performer.
Is this the first time that all 4 of the individual SAG film-acting awards went to actors of color?
And in a year when four of the five Ensemble nominees were majority POC yet the majority white one wins.
A point worth making. Though I do think the Chicago 7 ensemble was impressive.
Minari supporting actress is a joke; any competent character actress could have played that role.
No shit have you seen other actress’ face? Bakalova looked WTF while the rest had are-you-kiddin-me fake smiles plastered bellow ice-cold stare.
Well… I have written here for two years: any average actress could play Olivia Colman’s role in The Favorite. You didn’t need Olivia Colman to play that role. To play Glenn Close in The Wife or Colman in The Father… it takes more. Way more skills.
Instant Analysis by your trusted analyst:
Davis weak frontrunner
Trial still in it, albeit barely
Boseman and Kaluuya locked
S. Actress is still a big ?
Was really hoping Colman would win here after seeing The Father. That would’ve really shook things up!
agree…but such a subtle performance is often overlooked; voters seem to prefer seeing the “acting” which is why Viola won. Similar is true of Boseman, who is way over the top from the beginning. How can his work be compared to Hopkins’ brilliant performance?
Very different roles/performances…
I need to see Ma Rainey again. I thought Boseman was sensational when watching it. Didn’t think anyone cold beat that performance until I saw Hopkins in The Father. He is astounding ! Honestly, it’s hard to find words to describe what he does. All I know is it’s one my all-time favourite performances. Devastating.
Yup, pretty much how I see it as well (although supporting actress does look like it’s Youn with Bakalova the only real challenger – others still possible but looking a lot less likely without SAG/GG/BFCA).
Mulligan gave a refreshing, timely, vivid and iconic performance. Winnning for a role like that would have been historic, too, but I guess we’ll be disappointed.
Agree…and I would have had Viols st the bottom of the list
Just missed Best Actress in the contest. Picked Carey over Viola.
Hopkins is BY FAR the best actor of this or many other years
Oscar shitshow deserves the worst ratings ever.
agree…what a crap show
I’m done
yup
These awards were pretty awful huh?
yes
What can they do, IC? They were dealt a rotten hand by a once-a-century pandemic calamity. I almost feel sorry for them. AND the Oscars.
They are fuckin terrible. What travesty. Why the fuck is Mulligan ignored? I get it, she didn’t lipsync in fatsuit as a historical figure but played an original character.
damn right.
never get the love for MINARI..a terrible film.
Not terrible but, yeah, didn’t work for me either… (The acting was really good, though. Score was nice. Not much else.)
agree about score…the rest we have seen hundreds of times, except not with Koreans. And the best performance was by the actress playing the mother, who has been ignored this awards season.
“the rest we have seen hundreds of times, except not with Koreans. And
the best performance was by the actress playing the mother, who has been
ignored this awards season.”
100% agree with all of that – Ye-ri Han was the MVP for me as well.
Most of the leak was legit. Mostly.
All but SupActress was on the money.
TRIAL lazy
Did Trial really win? 😮
Interesting!
yep
So Ensemble. is Nomadland going to get competition or not?
No. This is a stone cold mortal lock.
So lead Actor/Actress/Supporting Actor set but man, Supporting Actress is tricky. Would the Academy really screw over Close one more time or give it to Youn or could Seyfried be this decade’s Marisa Tomei? Really tricky.
wrong reply sorree
wrong reply sorree
Actress is not locked at all!! Davis was an awful choice!
Maybe they blindside us all and make it a tie win between Colman and Close.
I don’t think they allow ties anymore
Not in picture – not even in acting? We had one in sound in 2013, so it’s definitely still possible in techs.
I was kidding, but that’s interesting for you to note. Has there been a rule implemented? How would they decide if it is a tie?
How would Seyfried be Marisa Tomei if she won? That’s completely different.
I mean, if SAG alone is enough to make Davis a lock – if that’s what you mean (and with which I strongly disagree) – then surely Youn, who’s actually won NBR and LAFCA, too, not just SAG, is also locked…
These awards were a mixed bag for me. Rather disappointed.
To be fair, it hasn’t exactly been a normal movie year….
same
Viola is so over the top in a supporting role; Mulligan is brilliant. And Boseman is not even close to Hopkins.
But wasn’t Hopkins channeling Henry Fonda in On Golden Pond? Tragic alzheimer’s victim?
I think Fonda(‘s character) is clear condition to express how he felt and feels for his women. The level of disorientation is quite different. That one might have been more difficult, actually.
not even close
Mulligan and Hopkins/Ahmed should be winning this year. So disappointing.
Indeed! But they are not diverse enough! Ok Ahmed is, but that would never happen! Sad for Mulligan and Hopkins.
agreed
TV Awards = all white
Movie Awards = all PoC
Yeah, same here…
Viola?? :O
We have a race then…
just was thinking that!
Definitely a race.
Critics Choice – Mulligan
Golden Globe – Day
SAG – Davis
Bafta – None of those three, probably Kirby or McDormand
most likely one of those other 4.
Viola was excellent in the role. There were seasons when she was my #1, she isn’t this time around but that doesn’t mean she deserves this any less nor that it won’t be absolutely brilliant if she wins a lead Oscar at last.
She’s amazing, definitely my pick from the nominees. Probably tied with FENCES for her best performance ever.
I feel the exact same way. I so wanted Carey to win but if there was everyone I’d want to see instead as a winner would be Queen Viola for another acting masterclass like the one she delivers as Ma Rainey. The lady is just a force, adore her :))
I agree with 100% of that. (Except I don’t know if she was ever my actual #1 in any category, but she’s always been amazing and near the top.)
She was my #1 in 2008 (masterclass supporting turn in Doubt, Penelope Cruz won) and in 2016 when she did win for Fences, honestly I would have had no trouble with her winning in lead that year (I wasn’t big on La La Land although Stone was great, I admit) although my fave was the not even nominated Amy Adams (Arrival).
If I had to choose between her and Streep (The Iron Lady) in 2011, I would have gone with Davis (The Help), but overall my favourite performance from that category that year was Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo).
And I just realised that this pretty much means her Ma Rainey is my least favourite nominated performance of hers which is a testament to her work because I still consider it a brilliant performance and have zero problem if she does win the Oscar for it in the end. However I can’t deny that my favourites in Best Actress this year are Carey Mulligan and Vanessa Kirby in a tie, Mulligan may have a minor edge because I liked her film more.
Make that 2 for Clan Rainey and the Black Bottom (Chadwick, posthumously).
Lol I was so stupid to switch off Viola earlier in the season. She makes so much sense.
FUCK YOU SAG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Viola….
NOOOO NOT FATSUIT! SHIIIIIIT!!!!!
And the Crown wins drama ensemble. I wish Amazon would push The Expanse to the moon, Mars and the (asteroid) Belt. They’d at least have drama series as an actual race.
Holy shit Anderson upset Corrin!
They went with the veteran over the newcomer. X-Files wasn’t recognized enough for its stellar acting by GA.
GA was stellar on The Crown so tough choice between her and EC. It’s one stellar cast.
Kaluuya is Oscar bound.
that was wrapped up before SAG but now 100% confirmed.
Schitt’s Creek is Quintessential Ensemble. From the 4 Leads to the assortment of brilliant supporting characters. Rewarded handsomely, even if it was only after 5 seasons, and on its 6th and final run. It’s in the history books, and I am just fine with that. A brilliant show.
With a huge, bigly, giant-like assistance from Netflix. The Netflix Crutch. That was the show that benefited the most from their contract with PopTV.
All the better for countless more folks to enjoy the experience and brilliance of the show.
You have yet to explain why it’s a “crutch” to have lots of people watching.
NATO sheep
Mature.
Neo Nazi sympathizer
Dude, it’s rather pathetic to follow me to unrelated websites.
And I haven’t said one word in defence of neo-Nazis.
On the other website you have
No, I have not. If you can find a single such statement, you are welcome to produce it.
But more to the point, please have this discussion in the relevant location.
Yes you have CIA shill. You keep shilling for the CIA all over there and it’s much easier to post here since posts over there require approval
Nope, never, but nice try. And this is still not the appropriate forum. Discussions happen in the site to which they pertain. Learn web etiquette.
Yes you have CIA shill. IDC.
learn to stop shilling
Now we have our beat supporting actress winner at the Oscar’s…. go korea!
*best
Yuh-jung Youn!
The leak was WRONG. Go Carrie- PLLLEASE
Shocking…
Yeha shocked that April Fool’s leak is fake.
who was leaked?
the leaks said it was Bakalova
thank you Raynand 🙂
no problem, Dave 🙂
no problem, Dave 🙂
The leak that had Bakalova & Davis winning
thanks Andrew, I will be interested to know all the leaks after the announcements. I have purposely avoided looking, although i noticed you had mentioned Davis on the other thread.
I’m nervous. there are Davis whispers on twitter.
And finally, clan Rose has left the building. Ted Lasso was screwed again.
Catherine O’Hara deserves every award on the planet. A Nobel Peace Prize included for her contribution to giving smiles to people all over the globe!
Getting a little carried away, are we, for a woman with all the subtlety of Thor’s hammer in her acting. Coasted on her SCTV rep for a generation +, then became last year’s flavor of the moment. She got f’n lucky riding that Schitt’s wave. All of ’em did.
just neutralising your repetitive mantra about anybody who is not Kristen Bell.
Your argument would make more sense if you didn’t use the exact same one, basically word for word with only the name changed, for
– Rachel Brosnahan / The Marvellous Mrs. Maisel
– Phoebe Waller Bridge / Fleabag
– Tracee Ellis Ross / black-ish.
News flash : just because an actress in a comedy show wins awards that you think only Kristen Bell could possibly deserve, doesn’t mean they are “flavour of the month” or undeserving. It just means that you really have to start watching more shows, especially if you intend to trash them relentlessly (sight unseen).
But one final insult, a lifetime achievement SAG for you know who…HBO KNOWS they’re committing genre fraud by keeping Flight Attendant in Comedy. But they can’t put it in drama because The Crown will mop the floor with them. Sticky wicket, this…no choice. TFA stays in comedy where its chances are upgraded to life support rather than dead on arrival.
you can aportion as many downward votes as you like to me, I shan’t let you bring down this party with your requisite negativity
It was a mistake and it was withdrawn.
but now how will you get an erection?
i’m chuckling big time on that comment, a much needed grin today. Thank you Ryan.
Some more projectile vomiting from mister adams, I see.
Fun so far, int it?
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/1378878709587976196
Aren’t we all in our underwear? I thought that was the agreed dress code. You know, everything SAGs. 🙂 (how many sag puns can i squeeze in?)
Aren’t we all in our underwear? I thought that was the agreed dress code. You know, everything SAGs. 🙂 (how many sag puns can i squeeze in?)
Jason Sudekis #BeatsTheCreek, as expected. No SAG for you, Levys!
Make that 3 SAGs for the Levys: Dan, Eugene and Sarah. As well as the rest of that wonderful ensemble.
Chalk that development up to being a GMOL (Great Mystery of Life).
Anna Taylor Joy keeps the Gambit moving along toward Emmy domination….only Angelina Jolie was younger SAG winner in the limited, actress category. (24, vs. 23 for Jolie at the time).
No surprises with those two leads winning so far.
Any streams ?
Can’t find a working international stream
Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much is True is the first TV winner (limited, actor). TV first, then movies in the last half hour.
Wonder Woman and The Mandalorian won stunt Ensemble. These two awards were announced an hour before the show.
Very logical. And two worthy winners.
Continence pads at the ready please folks!
And thank you for the thread Ryan. I shall follow along. SAGging behind everyone…..
Is this the first time that all 4 of the individual SAG film-acting awards went to actors of color?