Viola Davis has made history twice in 2021. In addition to having the most nominations for any Black actress at the Oscars, Davis now has the distinction of being the first Black actress to win two Lead Actress awards at the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
In 2011, Viola Davis nominated for Best Actress for her work in The Help. She was up against Meryl Streep for the Iron Lady. Streep had already won Lead Actress and Supporting by then and was about to win her second Lead Actress Oscar. Streep still holds the record for the most nominations for Best Actress yet doesn’t come anywhere near Katharine Hepburn’s four Lead Actress wins. Viola Davis, however, now has two Lead Actress wins under her belt at SAG, something that has never happened for any Black Actress.
Chadwick Boseman won in Lead for Ma Rainey, as expected, Daniel Kaluuya in Supporting for Judas and the Black Messiah, as expected. Supporting Actress seemed up in the air but Yuh-Jung Youn won in Supporting for her work as the wise grandmother in Lee Isaac Chung’s Minari.
But with Viola Davis winning for SAG we have a real drama on our hands here heading into the final weeks of the longest Oscar race in history. If it goes this way, the Academy will make history, either with all non-white or all female winners in three top categories – Acting, Writing, Directing.
Viola Davis has more than paid her dues in her long and prolific career. She should have won for The Help – not to shade the Queen Streep but Davis was better and deserved to win. At the time she was punished, I thought, for the controversy around The Help (seems like child’s play compared to today’s controversies, however) but she did win the SAG, along with Octavia Spencer who won for Supporting at both the SAG and the Oscars.
Davis has been acting since the 90s, primarily playing supporting characters, since very few feature films are anchored singularly around a female performance of color. Fences, The Help, and Doubt are all her strongest roles and all of her Oscar nominations, along with Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Now she’s been nominated twice in supporting and twice in lead, making her the record holder for the most nominations of any Black actress in Oscar history.
Ma Rainey is a film that centers on the singer’s life and influence on American music. Chadwick Boseman’s death and the strength of his performance has over-shadowed Davis’ work in the film, at least where the Oscar is concerned. Andra Day won the Golden Globe for The United States vs. Billie Holiday, and Carey Mulligan has won the Critics Choice. Despite being eligible in a year where a small jury selected the nominees for BAFTA, none of these contenders have a BAFTA nod. The only Oscar crossover in the category is Frances McDormand for Nomadland.
This is the second time in Oscar history where two Black actresses were nominated in Lead. The last time was in 1972 and neither Cicely Tyson for Sounder nor Diana Ross for Lady Sings the Blues picked up a win. Halle Berry remains the only Black actress to win in the category back in 2001, twenty years ago. It’s hard to believe it’s been 20 years but it has.
If any year should bring in a win for a Black actress it should be this one. Voters will choose the one they think gave the best performance but they will also be anxious to right the wrongs of the past and break the streak of only one Black actress winning in 93 years of Oscar history. The question is, which of these two performances will win the most votes?
Going by the nominations, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has more momentum heading into the race. It is already winning Best Actor walking in the door, and it seems poised to win the Hairstyling and Makeup and maybe Costumes. And with Production Design that makes up five total nominations. And potentially three wins. By contrast, The United States vs. Billie Holiday has just the one nomination. Given the strength of Boseman and Davis having just won the SAG seems to be the right ingredients for Davis to win the Oscar.
But my friends, it’s a cliffhanger. We wanted a surprise category and we got one surprise category.
Meanwhile, Promising Young Woman is still a threat, though after losing both the Globe and the SAG, in this year specifically, it’s hard to see how Mulligan pulls through an 11th hour surprise. But anything is possible given the unpredictability of this season.
The other three categories appear to be mostly set, at least Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. Probably Supporting Actress. That just leaves Best Actress.
The SAG Awards ceremony went by in a flash. It was well done, though, I think. They seem to know it was time to make it quick and get off stage.
I think Actor, Supporting Actor are locked. Supporting Actress, likely pretty close to it now. I’m still curious about Actress but Davis seems in the driver’s seat. Though, I still weirdly wouldn’t discount Mulligan — perhaps just a pipe dream? Also, does McDormand win at BAFTA? Beats me!
Director is locked. Still not sure what wins Pic ’til ballot is opened, no matter how that night goes earlier on, unless Chicago 7 somehow wins BAFTA (doesn’t seem their film, but of course has a chance since nominated). But, Nomadland seems the favorite ’til the end, especially if it wins BAFTA. But, that preferential ballot still makes me go…hmmm. And Nomadland still is only film up for Pic + Director at BAFTA, so seems most likely winner there, but we’ll see.
Chicago 7 became the alternative at SAG. Bad news for Minari and PYM, I suppose, so others seem done unless they pull off a BAFTA. I’m watching The Father at BAFTA, but seems a stretch, even if it wins there. In total, seems Nomadland #1 still most likely, and if it goes somewhere else, yea, Chicago 7 just became the alternative?
Howdy Hi everyone! Just got back from the Iowa Midwest Film Critics Bi-Annual Brunch and all the psychics were really musing about the SAG winners. I asked Carol Hannson, best known for her All You Need Is a Needle magazine (about yarn of course). She said she knows Carey Mulligan is winning. “Oh come on, its obvious! It’s the showiest performance, it’s the film all the cool kids are watching…or is that the Sound of Metal?” She gets confused sometimes.
I asked Jonathan Parker, V from Omaha Daily Psychic News what his readings were for Glenn Close. “Oh the poor thing”, he said between bites of the pancake waffle mix, served to us with fresh mulberries. “She’s not gonna win for playing that cowboy. I think she has better shot when she does Sunset Blvd. Pass the jam will you?”
It was indeed a very intriguing brunch, but now that I’ve cleared my head I can channel who I see winning. I wont know the full amount of course until Oscar night.
BEST PICTURE: Sound of Metal
Its gonna happen. All the voters I talk to in West Hollywood say it was the “only film on Prime that they click on and watch past the opening credits without looking down on their iPhones.” I nodded. I felt for sure Nomadland but no, every voter grimaced when I mentioned it. “It def is a great showcase if you want to buy an RV, but I didn’t need to see Frances McDormand wearing no Makeup again for 2 hours.” Another woman had opposite opinions. “She’s great – I love that she can wear only lipstick and still hammer in a performance that SHOULD be winning! The movie just sucked. My husband and I didn’t understand where she was driving, why she kept working at fast food restaurants, and why she turned down living in that beautiful house, with a man who wanted to marry her.” I nodded again.
BEST DIRECTOR: Nomadland
Everyone did agree this one was easy. “It’s nice another lady is going to helm something worthy of a gold watch.” I reminded them it was a statue but they said I missed the significance of the comparison.
BEST ACTOR: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
This is where the upsets come in folks. EVERY SINGLE voter I have talked to, from West coast to New York to England to North Dakota (I get around) has said “Anthony. Done deal.” They do like Chadwick, and are planning a SURPRISE honorary Oscar for his body of work at the ceremony! But for best performance, the only other name I heard was dude from Sound of Metal (His name escapes me right now, lots of readings coming in- oh man, bad weather ahead…especially in Washington)
BEST ACTRESS: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
This was more tough for voters to decipher. Some said Viola, some said Andra Day, a few did mention Vanessa Kirby and of course, Frances had her fans. ONE voter said Glenn Close. I reminded him she was a supporting nominee. “OHHH! Really? I could have sworn she was in that movie with Jonathan Pryce. The Husband?” Some voters have bad memories.
But Carey will prevail. It’s a film with 6 big nominations and the film that got a second woman nominated for best director- in Academy History that’s never happened. Carey is a lovely girl too. When I asked her at a dinner in Anaheim who she was picking for best actress, the selfless gal giggled “Oh probably Viola. She’s my idol.” “NOOOO! DON’T!” I screamed. A hush fell over the restaurant. “Pick yourself dear, you deserve it.” The agent came back and told me to leave. Carey looked a bit peeved. Oh well, vote and learn.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
It will be the first acting trophy announced and he’s the easiest to forsee. All the psychics are picking him. Nice fella.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Olivia Colman, The Father
It’s gonna happen again! Glenn is going to be sitting on the edge of her seat with her Wife speech in her hand, and once again Colman takes the podium. She’ll mention working in the laundry mats again which will really piss Glenn off (and housekeeping at the theater). “I think I may have to swap my Oscar engravings, cause I was a lead in The Father.” Chuckles from the liberals. Yes folks any movie about dementia where YOU are actually experiencing it yourself will make you check it off. “It’s not that they really wanted Olivia to win. They Can’t Remember why they chose her.”
“Then why didn’t The Father win best film?” I asked.
“We don’t remember.”
Happy Oscars!
Thank you – I always use to wait with my predictions until I heard about what you and your psychics say!
Oh well thank you Dominik!! I feel so warm and like I’ve received shares and hearts on this…Isn’t validation wonderful?
You’re welcome to a free reading too- I can help you with one category Oscar night once I get my readings, and that category will be ONLY whispered (typed) to you and no one else. I have to give Liz from Palm Beach a call. The Oscar Psychics are making an impact!!
I low-key enjoy seeing people pressed to witness the Viola shade. Yes, people, Screen Thespian Davis can also and will be criticized just like the rest of us. I wonder if people would support a performance having a black face or a gay face. Because wearing a fat suit is the same thing. As a plus-sized person I’m offended that a thin woman would take away the opportunity of the Monique’s, Octavia Spencer’s and Loretta Devine’s just to push her own narrative and win awards.
As a fellow “plus-sized person”, that is the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard in my life.
Tell that to plus-sized actresses such as Loretta Devine and Octavia Spencer who couldn’t get a starring role in an August Wilson adaptation because Viola Davis wanted to play the role of a plus-sized woman in a fat-suit.
I’m pretty sure they would be happy to tell you that this is ridiculous.
What about the fat suit makers? They’re people too. Do we want them be out of work?
I’m still kinda cross they didn’t get a real alcoholic to play Denzel Washington’s part in Flight.
It should have been an alcoholic pilot actually.
It should have been an alcoholic pilot actually.
Yeah, and why couldn’t they have gotten a real elephant to play The Elephant Man? Why this discrimination against animals?
Hahahaha … And talk about offensiveness… people should be offended Jake Gyllenhaal and Heath Ledger and Timothee Chalamet for daring to steal roles from real gays by pretending to play gay characters. And Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan too, how dare they, it’s so shameful. And what about Ellen Page playing a straight woman in Juno and Jodie Foster in almost all her films stealing roles from straight actors… this is quite a fun game to play…
2 words: Rock Hudson. Montgomery Clift bisexual. I think many could be bisexual. Chalamet having a fling with Eliza Gonzales puts him firmly in straight land, but who knows.
Shit, I didn’t know there is such thing as a “gay face”. That puts the expression “keeping a straight face” into a whole new level of context.
Ahaha, Kolés.
But seriously. There’s not enough money in the world for me to play a scene where the character is shitfaced.
It’s exactly what I said about Denzel and Flight. I mean “shit face” in movies is kinda offensive and even worse – Hollywood does seem to be backpedaling in this department. Back in the day they got actors who were actually shitfaced to play shitfaced people. Now it’s all pretend to push the narrative and win awards. And it’s not like there isn’t anyone to choose from.
To be fair it used to be easier because all the actors were permanently shitfaced.
It’s a pretty well-known expression, and it shouldn’t be mocked. It’s all about the right casting. You cast right actors for a role. Having a thin actress to play a plus-sized woman is offensive no matter if Meryl Streep or Viola Davis do it.
https://slate.com/culture/2013/06/straight-actors-in-gay-roles-is-gayface-ok.html
https://www.indiewire.com/2020/12/james-corden-the-prom-outrage-offensive-miscast-1234601570/
Fuck, I really hope you’re joking :), but ok I’ll play along for a while.
Two dudes coinig a phrase in a not very original way and writing two articles isn’t exactly Encyclopedia Britannica.
And yet here we are 🙂
And here I actually have to agree, but I get the feeling you have a very skewed understanding of the phrase “right for the role”. Viola Davis is right for the role, based on her skill, star power and acting abilities. Heath Ledger was right for the role of Ennis Del Mar. Sarah Paulson was right for the role of Marcia Clark and so on. I’m very happy that casting choices are made based on skill and not sexual prefererences, skin color even age and physique. What matters most and only for that matter is how well you can play the part. And it doesn’t matter if you’re Christian Bale and actually willing to turn yourself into a plus-size person for the role of Dick Chaney or Gary Oldman who relies on make-up artists to turn him into Winston Churchil – what matters is how good of an actor you are.
I guess I could go on, but somehow I get the feeling you’re not the kind of person that is willing to listen. Having said that I shall leave you to your rants and being offended, but bare in mind – very few people give a fuck.
Your attitude is the reason why it cannot be a progressive conversation, and why you end your monologue implying that I have ‘rants’ for saying that for the role of a plus-sized woman, they should cast a plus-sized actress which is a perfectly fair statement to make. I’m glad you feel like it’s not an issue for you. I’m glad there are supporters of your point of view. The world would be a really shallow place to be if people were on the same page about everything. At the same time, making it all about your own preferences, your own lack of understanding?! I’m not sure that I can support that. Whitewashing is a similar same issue – casting white people for roles that shouldn’t be theirs. Or could be more diverse. So what if I think this should be happening with plus-sized roles as well? Then again, like you said, very few people give a fuck. In a world where beauty standards are so fucked up, in a business where you are considered old over 40, I think it would be important not to take away every given opportunity from plus-sized actresses (and there aren’t many, ask Gabby Sidibe) just because the thin ones want to play dress up. Ma weighed nearly 300 pounds. There would have been a more right fit for the role. Maybe someone who can even sing. But yeah, it’s just about plus-sized actresses and their struggle, it’s just about my rants and silly ideas of life, people don’t give a fuck.
It’s not a monologue. It’s a post in a discussion.
It’s also not making it about my preferences. It’s about the preferences of people makeing the fucking movie. Their project, their money, their investment, their time, their decisions. And their preference is to get the best they possibly can (for the money that they have). The actors role is to act, so if i’m making a movie and searching for actors it’s obvious for me that I’ll be considering acting skills. And if there are phisical differences between the actor and the character, I’ll be more willing to let the Make-up department have a crack at it and have my No.1 priority skills on board rather than find an actor who looks the part but is lacking the acting chops.
Just because you look the part doesn’t mean you are right for the part and just because you’re right for the part doesn’t mean you have to look the part. And it cuts both ways by the way. I haven’t read Push by Saphire and it’s been a while since I’ve seen Precious, but I don’t remember any important reason deriving from the screenplay that the main character had to be plus sized in order to tell the story right. There was some name calling by kids if I remember correctly, but hardly a character defining moment in the screenplay that you couldn’t adjust had you gone with a slimmer actress. That’s not what the story was about. So in a way Gabourey Sidibe had been chosen not because of her physique, but because of her natural, raw acting talent that resonated with Lee Daniels and convinced him she is right for the part, no matter how she looks. And that’s the most progressive and fair way of choosing the right person for the part I can think of.
I’m more appalled with the mindset that once you think “something shouldn’t be theirs” the whole world should rush to your call. Just because you have an opinion does not mean it’s valid (same goes for me by the way). I’m also suprised by the level of arrogance that simply because you have an opinion and an internet connection, you should be able to take part in the decisionmaking process on the movie, so you won’t get offended by it in the future.
There is no law preventing you from being offended and thank god for that. Because most of the times, if it’s not a direct attack, a slur, an action deliberatly aimed to hurt someone, it’s usually the offendee who has a problem.
LOL. Well, Carey Mulligan got reviews that said she wasn’t “hot” enough to play a Pretty Young Woman.
And while we’re on the subject, why do they keep hiring people with hair to play bald people? That’s literally exactly the same as blackface.
I mean I don’t mind a little bit of category confusion here and there. It stirs things up, makes it interesting. Sometimes it’s fun and interesting, but there are times when it’s downright idiotic (Hailee Steinfeld being in every fucking scene of True Grit).
I guess there is such thing as a “looming presence” of a character that you need to take into account. Sometimes a character does not need to be on screen in order to be “present” in the story. And while I didn’t get a strong “looming presence” vibe from Ma Rainey, I absolutley don’t mind parts with a relative short screen time being nominated for lead.
The go-to example here is obviously Hannibal Lecter. The character actually has a “looming presence” a long time before we get to see him for the first time. Marge Gunderson makes her entrance somewhere in the middle of the movie, but her good nature, positive energy and wits shine such a bright light on the whole story, that she indeed has a “looming presence” in the movie.
So I guess it’s not really a math problem, but a vibe that you get from a character. IMHO Ma Rainey is somewhere inbetween, but if I had to make a choice, I’d say she’s supporting. But that’s just me. There are many parts that are simply to close to call and that’s part of the fun.
Remember when Jake Gyllenhaal with practically a co-lead role was nominated in the same category as William Hurt with 5 minutes of screen time? So it’s all relative. Both men were excellent and IMHO easily could have won. And Richie Cusack is another great example of a “looming presence” which elevated his 5 minutes into something iconic.
I guess it’s not about screen time. It’s about the character’s arc. I would put it like that
(but I do agree Hailee is totally lead in True Grit) There’s no denying
Well that too, but in all honesty – there isn’t much of an arc in Hanibal Lecter’s character alone. The peculiar relationship he has with Clarice is the element that evolves, but he as a character remains pretty static throughout the movie. So it’s not the arc alone I guess and I have no better words for it than “looming presence” :). Howard Beale does seem like a supporting character, especially in the second part of Network, but there’s no denying that his charisma and footprint on the story make him very much lead.
Youn Yuh-jung’ gave such a genuine and classy SAG acceptance speech and her fellow nominees were equally classy. Ben Travers at IndieWire thought she gave the best speech of the night and rated it an A: ”Nothing beats a moment of pure, unfiltered honesty, and Youn Yuh-jung’s win had more than one!” Youn looked stunned when she was announced the winner. She teared up and said: ”I don’t know how to describe my feelings” and apologized because ”my English is not perfect.” Meantime, as reported at Today.com: ”Youn’s fellow nominees seemed genuinely thrilled for her win, and they beamed and gave her thumbs up throughout her acceptance speech.” And Youn wrapped up with: .”I’m just very, very honored, especially [that my] actor fellows chose me as the supporting actress … I’m very pleased and happy. Thank you so much, thank you Olivia and Glenn Close, Maria and everybody. Thank you.”
yes it was a lovely speech.
So after much thought, I feel this year is just a very DIFFERENT year then others, and statistics might go out the window.
The reason I don’t think Nomadland is winning is because its still not a movie most people I talk to want to watch right away. Sasha and Ryan talk about this. They talked about with Roma in 2019, and as I predicted- Green Book won. Last year 1917 started getting mixed notices from the “war film buffs”, and Parasite was on fire. With the Oscar’s preferential ballot, I see Trial winning or maybe Minari. But Nomadland is essentially Frances McDormand driving around in a camper, barely talking, to beautiful scenery and a sensational ending (“see you down the road”). Its NOT AN ENSEMBLE film. Aren’t those the ones that have won recently? Lets look
2014: Birdman
2015: Spotlight
2016: Moonlight
2017: Shape of Water
2018: Green Book
2019: Parasite
Yes Nomadland has other people, in minor roles. It still weights on McDormand, who is incredible. If anything, why isn’t SHE Winning?? Without her, the film would fail. So put statistics aside and look at the past recent winners. All social message movies (which Nomadland is; economy, homelessness, life, loss) with ENGAGING ensemble players all giving a designated performance. I would say yes, David S and the old woman who’s McDormand’s pal in the movie count, but its not like Trial of Chicago 7. The movie screams IMPORTANT- SOCIAL- NOW. I don’t know. I do agree that the WGA loss is bad but again, stats are meant to be broken. Especially the year where we’re having Zoom meetings for awards ceremonies!
For Best Actress, this is def a SPLIT year. Meaning votes will be split and that’s where Carey could prevail- or Viola- or Andra – OR Frances. Vanessa Kirby is the only one I rule out. Remember Adrien Brody? He had I think National Society of Film Critics. That’s it. He won because voters split between Nicholson and Day-Lewis (About Schmidt, Gangs of New York). Granted, he also was in The Pianist, which was getting last minute acclaim, won Polanski his WAY overdue Oscar, was about the holocaust (an academy favorite) and almost won over Chicago- I BET for sure.
So just because Viola Davis won SAG does not mean she wins the Oscar. There is still enough passion for Andra Day and Carey and even Frances. Olivia Colman managed to win over Close because I guarantee Lady Gaga still took votes. And that was a year where Colman on paper really was our champion. So 2020 is not set in stone. Anywhere.
I hope the academy thinks outside the box. I think our boys are locked- Chadwick (sigh Anthony Hopkins should be getting it) and Daniel are in. But the ladies is anyone’s game.
Back to best picture this year, Minari was my favorite 🙂
“The reason I don’t think Nomadland is winning is because its still not a movie most people I talk to want to watch right away”..
Yea..you think that WOULD be reason enough to even question why this film made the cut for list of best picture especially with the misguided decision to once again do the random lotto total number of best picture nominations – this year 8 contenders when it should be consistent with 10- but as we know consistency is NOT key when it comes to Oscar and awards season…this is symptomatic of the epidemic plaguing The Academy’s lack of credibility as to which films get snubbed which are nominated AND which are front runners..you sum up the fundamental standout flaws within Nobody’s Land…it reinforces what i been saying too…
You could never come across a duller more uneventful ‘film’ if a documentary style shot feature can be regarded as one is still open to debate..your sense of history is spot on too..
There isn’t really enough in Davis’ role to seriously contend for Best Actress. Boseman I can understand, but Davis was a stronger contender in The Help.
Davis is a previous winner and any black vote factor will funnel into Actor/Supp. Actor. I struggle to see Mulligan losing the Oscar.
I just see this as SAG being a bit more ensemble-focused, which leads to Ma Rainey & Minari wins, especially with Trial taking out the main.
Mulligan is 100% not winning without Globes, SAG and BAFTA. It’s Andra vs Viola.
I am bookmarking this page to come back here and comment the result.
It’s rare, but it’s happened before, even if not in this category. It’s not 0%. Meanwhile, it’s never happened that a movie win the two lead acting Oscars without a BP nomination.
Two leads without BP -> It happened in 1963 If I’m not mistaken.
I know it happened twice
Nope. You can check for yourself – the only movies that won both lead Oscars are: As Good as It Gets, The Silence of the Lambs, On Golden Pond, Coming Home, Network, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest and It Happened One Night – all nominated for Best Picture. In fact, never have both lead Oscars gone to movies not up for Best Picture (not even two different movies). Doesn’t bode well for Day. (Well, almost nothing does.)
Nope. You can check for yourself – the only movies that won both lead Oscars are: As Good as It Gets, The Silence of the Lambs, On Golden Pond, Coming Home, Network, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest and It Happened One Night – all nominated for Best Picture. In fact, never have both lead Oscars gone to movies not up for Best Picture (not even two different movies). Doesn’t bode well for Day. (Well, almost nothing does.)
Two powerhouse actresses who have for the past decade shown what screen acting is all about.
Viola Davis & Carey Mulligan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_4VeHD9hJM
And the competition…….
For Your Consideration: Carey Mulligan in ‘Promising Young Woman’. Wow! The most succinct word I could find to describe her performance in this twisted dramedy starring the ubiquitous Carey Mulligan. The British actress has been on the scene for about 15 years but it was her BAFTA winning turn in ‘An Education’ in 2009 which catapulted her to stardom. In the dozen years since, Ms Mulligan has shown just what a versatile and fascinating artist she is – and I use the word artist as looking at her filmography and accessing images of her work, it is evident what a chameleon Carey has been and often taken the road less travelled than her contemporaries choice wise. Just to mention ‘The Great Gatsby’, ‘Shame’, ‘Inside Llewyn Davis’ and ‘Suffragette’ is proof positive of her range and dynamism. In Emerald Fennell’s blistering ‘Promising Young Woman’, Carey’s “Cassie” is a tour de force, with the emphasis on force! Carey brings such intelligence; such passion and such cogency to the role that is impossible to imagine any other actor inhabiting this complex and flawed figure. If ‘An Education’ was the breakthrough; ‘Promising Young Woman’ propels this actor into a different stratosphere; and will shift the perception of her as either just a British ‘Rose’ or a versatile character actor. Make no mistake. Carey Mulligan is a force to be reckoned with and nothing less than title roles like this one should be in her horizon.
Musically I have used the scorching ‘Shot Through The Heart’ by American singer Ivy Levan; a track that is suitably febrile and symbolic of the character portrayed in this rollercoaster of a cinematic experience. For Your Consideration: Best Actress In A Leading Role – Carey Mulligan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kr7Y331ZS-I
An encore presentation of my tribute to Viola Davis for this season’s contenders
For Your Consideration: Viola Davis in ‘Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom’. If there is a contemporary actor who will become only the second woman of colour to win a Leading Actress Oscar it will be Viola Davis. Since her small but indelible performance in ‘Doubt’ in 2008 which earned her an Academy Award nomination, Ms Davis has spread her wings and gifted the world of cinema with a panoply of fascinating women – from her Oscar winning turn as a grieving mother in Denzel Washington’s ‘Fences’ to the instigator of a heist in her BAFTA nominated turn in ‘Widows’. Viola Davis came close to emulating Halle Berry’s Lead Actress win from a decade before when 2011’s ‘The Help’ won her accolades galore; and cemented her place at the forefront of leading ladies in the industry. Her “Ma Rainey” is a complete submersion – the actor quite unrecognisable thanks to her own physical transformation and brilliant make up and costuming allowing her to bring her requisite intensity to a role that whilst not on screen for the entirety of the movie, is so rich in attitude and posture, that often just an eye roll or a physical gesture, conveyed so much more than a pile of words could have. ‘Ma Rainey’ may well have been ahead of her time and indeed a trailblazer for future generations of vocalists. The world weariness and pain that Ms Davis brings to her scenes speaks volumes about not only racial inequality but also that of gender. I am convinced that there is nothing that this versatile actor cannot undertake and do so sublimely when she steps in front of a camera. Musically to honour this powerhouse performer is British soul extraordinaire Mica Paris and her utterly unique tones on her comeback Gospel recording: ‘Mamma Said’. For Your Consideration: Best Actress in A Leading Role: Viola Davis
She won Supporting for playing Lead, now she’ll win Lead for playing Supporting. So I guess it kinda evens out.
Her screen time was 53 minutes 32 seconds in Fences and she won in Supporting.
Her screen time is 26 minutes 42 seconds in Ma Rainey and she is a major threat now in Lead.
The irony is not lost on me that her supporting bid had twice the screen time of her lead bid.
Having said that, to me, she still felt like the co-lead / female lead in both.
It would be nice to see Hollywood give her a proper solo star vehicle at last, it is time.
She had 38% screen time in Fences and 28% in Ma Rainey.
She should have ran as lead for Fences. That was more of an Oscar role than Emma Stone’s and I believe she would have defeated Stone.
And here I was hoping this race won’t get ugly yet having only read half the comments here, clearly it already has because a celebrated actress won a single precursor award and nothing else in a long af season.
For fuck’s sake, people, it is all subjective so of course all your negative takes on the performance are just as legit as the positive ones, but this is no Greek tragedy here so all the dramatics feel unwarranted af.
I am still 100 % rooting for Mulligan and firmly believe she will win on the basis of all the love her film received on Nominations Morning (McDormand’s film is clearly a bigger deal but she has no traction in Actress and will probably make history in BP anyway) but if Davis takes it, that’s fine by me, too.
While she had been my #1 pick in previous seasons, this time around she isn’t my first choice or even second (Kirby for me) but if you have a beef with her winning, take it out on the voters. Not like she voted for herself thousands of times.
NO IS NOT FINE, WE ARE CALLING YOU ACADEMY STOP WITH ALL THE UNDERSERVING ACTING WINNERS HAPPENING SINCE FOREVER, ITS ABOUT THE F**CKIN PERFORMANCE NOT ABOUT YOUR POLITICS!!!
VIOLA DAVIS IS NOT RIGHT ,GIVE THE AWARDS TO SOMEONE DESERVING LIKE MULLIGAN OR KIRBY
STOP WITH THIS BS ACADEMY MEMBERS!
Respectfully, acting nominations and awards have a tendency to be a bit of a popularity contest. Davis has multiple SAG wins between film and TV and is POPULAR with that guild. It would be really cool if people didn’t reflexively assume that ANY black actor feted by the industry is some kind of affirmative action tainted award.
I couldn’t agree more with you, Pete, or with Phantom’s articulate post, just above yours. Ditto for daveinprogress’ well-reasoned replies even further above. Thank you to those of you who brought a level-headed, sense of perspective and respect for all performers. At the end of the day, it’s all subjective. Intelligent moviegoers can disagree passionately about whether a certain actor is or isn’t award-worthy. But the level of discourse shouldn’t devolve into insulting, overheated vitriol.
The thing is “undeserving” AND “deserving” for that matter remain subjective terms so while you can scream from the rooftops that Viola Davis is former, it will never be the fact you keep trying to present it as, it will be always just your highly arguable personal opinion that you are clearly entitled to have. Just like anyone whose opinion is that she is deserving.
At the end She isn’t deserving either
PYW received 6 nods at GG and ended up with 0 wins. I think people know that it’s going to be very difficult to win with only BFCA. Davis won an important pre-cursor that Mulligan needed. And Day did the same.
The HFPA decisions are down to 90 non-industry voters, while they have some clout and can influence the race for sure I think the fact that Fennell won Critics Choice, WGA and will probably win the Bafta on Saturday, too, will cement her status as the frontrunner in Original Screenplay, the reason why I don’t see the film going 5/0 at the Oscars and also why I still think there could be enough support for a Mulligan win, too. We’ll see soon enough.
I don’t think the film winning OS is enough to carry Mulligan, whose front runner status has eroded a lot. GG, SAG should have been easy wins for her. If this had happened to someone who wasn’t a fan favorite, they would have been written off.
Fair point. The thing is the Best Actress race is completely up in the air this season in almost unprecedented fashion so quite literally anything can still happen, a case could be made for anyone from the quintet.
– Viola Davis won SAG but she won an Oscar recently and her film doesn’t have a BP nod.
– Vanessa Kirby will probably win Bafta but is a first-time nominee in a controversial film and again, no BP nod.
– Andra Day won the Golden Globe and her spotty track record (SAG+Bafta) could be due to being a super late entry BUT her film was trashed and the Academy didn’t care for it at all other than her performance. Not even song shortlist even though that should have been an easy nod / win. Rather telling.
– Carey Mulligan won the Critics Choice that alone isn’t much stats-wise BUT her film is the second strongest player in this category after McDormand’s who has no traction in Lead Actress and will probably make history in BP anyway, so if McDormand is out I could easily see the Academy go for Mulligan since they liked her film A LOT more than the other three.
– Frances McDormand is the headliner of the BP frontrunner and could still win Bafta so she remains in the running but I think she will win in BP and Lead Actress will go to someone else.
Who knows. For what it’s worth, most definitely the most interesting Best Actress race in the last 20 years or so, this category is so often just a clean or kinda clean sweep.
In the SAG era, no Best Actress has ever won without the Globe or SAG or BAFTA. Odds are against Day since no Best Actress has ever won without a SAG nod. BFCA is not enough to float a win. It will come down to the SAG & BAFTA winners. If Kirby wins BAFTA, then McDormand is out, and vice versa.
Then again Day’s presumed lack of widespread industry support, based on snubs from SAG and Bafta voters, could be misleading. She was a very late entry and those two voting bodies are huge so it could have been just a case of “not enough voters had seen it by their respective deadlines that were quite early considering how long the season is”. Just a theory though.
Excellent points my friend, as ever. The long and late season has to be a major factor in the why and how the different award bodies have given up such differing nominations and then outcomes. As you say the last 20 years – isn’t it about that long since the Oscars were held this late in the year? Globes, SAG BAFTA all moved their dates and then the latter reinvented the wheel too, adding to the myriad of points of difference making this year as i have described ‘batshit crazy’.
Batshit crazy is the perfect way to describe this never-ending season. It is a bit of a train wreck vibe for me at this point, I no longer want to look but I still can’t help it and I just do.
Phantom, it would not be awards’ season without your glimpses and insight into the race. However murky it gets, and this year, as expected, it is especially muddied. The fact that a few of the categories are so mixed up is refreshingly novel, considering how tedious it has been where the same actors get trotted out.
The fact that beautiful performances and movies get overlooked every year – whatever happened to Sidney Flanigan, Sophia Loren, Michelle Pfeiffer, Tahar Rahim, Kingsley Ben-Adir, Alfre Woodard (shame on 2019 for not recognising her; bravo to BAFTA for doing so)), and many others, is proof positive of just how limited the race is every year, no matter how much advocacy and critics’ love champions great stories and storytellers. You and I both share much admiration for Carey Mulligan and Vanessa Kirby. These two performances will be watershed moments for their filmography and lead to further stellar work. Oscar or not!
Aw thanks, Dave, I feel the same about your contributions here. Honestly I am just happy Kirby got nominated, it would have been a travesty if she hadn’t been, now she is an Oscar nominee for a stellar performance even if she won’t win.
Keep doing your thing here. Your reasoning and respect is one of the most treasured ingredients here in the comments. No-one really knows anything but we collectively give it a good shot, and for some of us it is a lot of fun. That’s how i hope it is for us.
I hope so, too. Talk of films and awards SHOULD be fun.
SHE DOES NOT DESERVE ANOTHER OSCAR FOR THIS PERFORMANCE PERIOD
Never bet against an actor playing a washed-up singer with substance abuse problems (Rami Malek, Marion Cottilard, Renee Zellweger). Mulligan actually DOES stand at a chance at the Best Actress Oscar because there are two such roles competing against each other.
You’ll recall, I wrote at length about how I couldn’t see a woman of color NOT winning the Oscar this year. Below is an update of what I wrote following Viola Davis’ fantastic win last night:
“I went into the year convinced that Viola Davis would win for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, but when the film landed the consensus was that she doesn’t have enough screen time for a Best Actress win. Davis has won once for supporting but many feel she is overdue for that Best Actress win.
Then, Promising Young Woman picked up steam and rolled all the way to a Best Picture and Best Director nomination combo along with Carey Mulligan’s amazing performance. Mulligan has only been nominated once, but many feel she is overdue for a win.
Most recently, we saw Andra Day give what I consider the best performance of the year in The United States vs. Billie Holiday for which she won the Golden Globe Best Actress. However, the film is quite flawed, evidenced by her performance being its only nomination. Day is a first time actress and nominee.
Accordingly, many penciled Day in the fifth nomination slot, including me, but few have pegged her to win — opting instead for Mulligan
Also, Day did not get nominated for SAG, all but ensuring that either Davis or Mulligan wins there — with most opting for Mulligan.
Lastly, because of the new nomination and voting process, BAFTA nominations are a mess, and I am discounting them entirely in my thought process.
I am having a real difficult time in the year we have had not seeing voters vote for a black actress when to date Halle Berry remains the only black actress to have won a Best Actress Oscar. So:
1) SAG and Oscar could go to Davis
2) SAG could go to Davis, Oscar could go to Mulligan or Day
3) SAG and Oscar could go to Mulligan4)
SAG could go to Mulligan, Oscar to Day or DavisI can’t see SAG deciding not to give the award to a black woman this year of all years. Ditto the academy. So I’m seeing Mulligan’s win as less likely.
—————-
1) Davis
2) Day
3) Mulligan
so in a nutshell:
worst performance wins for reasons unrelated to quality of the performance
oh no no no why are awards becoming more and more irrelevant? why did people stop watching?
Humph.
I’m baffled by the fact that Youn Yuh-jung made history as the first Asian actress to win a SAG and this site would still push Viola Davis to the front. Is her campaign crew paying for this?
I’m glad Glenn Close won’t win for this performance – it’ll give her the gas to knock us out in a great Lead performance again and rightfully take the Oscar
When she does Norma Desmond they’ll start and end the season with her. No doubt.
Yep… Performance in musicals have won two Lead Oscars in 50 years. Both for tech juggernauts that came this close to winning Best Picture. Definitely happening… NOT
Please stop.When will she be good enough?Next time there will be another flavor of the month who will be deemed more deserving than Miss Close.The oscars are becoming less relevant by the year!What is wrong with giving her now? People have won for for far worse roles.
She just did that. And you preferred the shouting and wigs of another real-life character who was not even a top two standout in her own film.
It’s very strange year. Different winners and no clear frontrunner. Davis (SAG), Day (Golden Globe) and Mulligan (Critics Choice).
Like Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction, I think Mulligan’s role in PYW is not Academy’s taste.
Now that I think about it, I actually kinda’ prefer this outcome: better that I fully prepare myself for Carey to lose on Oscar night, since it’s now probably more likely than not (whether she’s the slight favorite with something like 30-40% chances or whether she’s behind), than that she win SAG and then somehow the Globe loss or the BAFTA snub prove more relevant than they seemed and she lose the Oscar – which would then be quite surprising and a lot more disappointing… I like her being the underdog, or at least not a clear favorite. This situation is more… promising… 🙂
Ha, love this comment 🙂 Man, I so want her to pull off a major upset and win the Oscar. It deserves to be ranked among the biggest Best Leading Actress ever if she loses at The Oscars again.
It’s a shame that almost every time an instant classic of a performance, the kind that’s bold, refreshing, thrilling and completely memorable and connects surprisingly with a huge fan base among even the general audience and not just cinephiles despite its darkness and uncompromising nature (from Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction to Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl) ends up snubbed in favor of a much “safer” choice. Ugh :// Carey HAS TO WIN THIS.
Queen Viola and any other of the nominees would make for a worthy winner as well but no one can match Carey’s ferocious brilliance this year.
Queen? Of?
Ham. 🙂
Yup, agree 100%. Sontag said it best – it would be a shame…
Clever ending to your comment. I see what you did there. (Did you ever see Mr. Saturday Night? Billy Crystal said “see what I did there,” and now my dad has repeated it for the past twenty-plus years. It’s second only to his portrayal of Dustin Hoffman’s performance in Rain Man.)
🙂 I’d never even heard of Mr. Saturday Night – but I do love Billy Crystal, so I might check it out.
New stat: no actress has won in the BFCA era (1996-today) after being nominated for and losing at least 3/4 of SAG, BAFTA, Critics Choice or the Golden Globe. (It’s happened in the other categories – at least Swinton and Brody, who lost 3/4, being snubbed for the fourth, and maybe there are more. But not in lead actress.) This is perhaps a reason McDormand and Kirby won’t be a real threat to win, even if they win BAFTA. They’ve been nominated everywhere and already lost 3/4 final votes. This doesn’t rule out the 3 winners so far, though – Day has lost once (BFCA), Mulligan and Davis twice. (And those are the final numbers, with all three snubbed at BAFTA.) Losing one final vote as opposed to two is not an advantage, of course – the numbers actually suggest, if anything, the opposite:
Those that lost two – Lawrence, Streep, Cotillard, Kidman, Berry, Swank (Boys Don’t Cry), McDormand (Fargo) and Paltrow, perhaps, because she won 2/3 and lost the Critics Choice back when there were no nominations there, only winners announced, so, had there been, she likely would have been a final nominee – we can call this a wash, since it’s not clear either way. And maybe Sarandon (won SAG, lost Globe, BAFTA-snubbed, no BFCA nominations, somebody else won, so most likely she would have had 2/4 losses on a final vote, though it’s not clear, so not counting her either).
Those that only lost one – Stone, Theron (who lost the BAFTA in a different year anyway) and maybe Hunt, who lost the Critics Choice (having won the Globe and SAG and been snubbed at BAFTA) also back when they only announced winners – we can call this a wash as well, for the same reason.
So, if one is being objective, it’s looking like either 7-2 or 9-3 to 2/4 losses vs. 1/4 losses. This makes sense, because those that only lose 1/4 usually do so because they’ve been snubbed in at least one or two key places. (Stone and Theron actually won 3/4, so it wasn’t the case with them and, thus, they aren’t in any way precedents for an Andra Day win.) As most stats do right now, this too seems to point towards a Davis vs. Mulligan situation.
Of course I meant 3/4 in the first paragraph. 🙂 (It was probably obvious from context, anyway.) Edited.
I think Carey Mulligan will prevail at the Oscars.
Everytime an award is given everyone shouts ‘that person is going to win the Oscar’. Andra Day at the Globes and now Viola Davis at SAG. They are different organisations and the nominations are all over the place this year; even before BAFTA weighed in with its revamp.
Only Vanessa Kirby and Frances McDormand have hit all the majors. Critics Choice, Globe SAG, BAFTA and Oscar nominations.
It is so rare for one film to take both Leading Actor and Actress. Just 7 times in the last 50 years. And Ma Rainey is both a NETFLIX release and a faithful adaptation of its theatrical origin. I don’t see Viola winning. The role is transformative, but is hardly likable in character; and it is Boseman who fills the frame with his energy and the sadness that the viewing audience and voters know he is a dying man as he is giving it his all. ‘Ma Rainey’ might be the leading actress, but her performance is too ensemble to be an outright winner here. Especially against tour de force performances like those given by Day, Kirby, Mulligan and McDormand. SAG love Viola Davis. That is clear. Voters love real life figures brought to life in movies. Her win indicates that this is a real race for the 5 women competing for the Oscar.
It is shameful that it has bene nearly 50 years since two women of colour competed for Best Actress, and I don’t see them necessarily cancelling one another out.
Frances McDormand will in all likelihood become a 3 time Oscar winner due to the BP win. If she wins at BAFTA, I can predict the wailing and gnashing of teeth from those saying ‘Frances is going to win the Oscar now’.
Carey Mulligan is in an edgy and current movie that speaks to so much that is right now in regards to sexuality, gender, culture and behaviour. She has turned in a decade of shapeshifting performances and I think that her NOT winning the Globe or SAG or getting nommed at BAFTA will play well for her. The Oscar is the last chance to reward this really powerful turn by one of the great contemporary actresses. AMPAS loves its actresses of a certain age and Carey fits it well. The movie has landed in all the best places with the Academy; showing it a lot of support. I think it is going to be close – but the combination of a strong British contingent and also a younger voting membership than 10 or 20 years ago will bode well for Ms Mulligan.
“Frances McDormand will in all likelihood become a 3 time Oscar winner due to the BP win. If she wins at BAFTA, I can predict the wailing and gnashing of teeth from those saying ‘Frances is going to win the Oscar now’.”
:)) Totally…
“Carey Mulligan is in an edgy and current movie that speaks to so much that is right now in regards to sexuality, gender, culture and behaviour. She has turned in a decade of shapeshifting performances and I think that her NOT winning the Globe or SAG or getting nommed at BAFTA will play well for her.”
That’s more or less what I had been thinking for the last few minutes too. 🙂 (The precursors thing.)
Also, you make some other fantastic points I hadn’t even considered! (Like the younger voting membership – that should definitely work in Carey’s favor.)
These female acting awards are mad and super fun this year! Both have gone to different people at all 3 major precursors so far (globes, CCA, sag) and it will probably continue in lead at BAFTA (Mulligan, David and Day are not nominated so it’ll probably be McDormand) – even though supporting will probably be Bakalova or Youn and then one of them will almost certainly win the Oscar. I do think given that SAG liked Ma Rainey more than the academy this probably doesn’t mean Davis is winning Oscar but it at least puts her in the race as a true possibility. I’m still thinking Mulligan but who knows! It could even be Day or McDormand.
The male acting awards are pretty much over.
I also think Minari as potential best picture winner is over (it really won’t be able to win any top prize leading up to Oscar now). The only real challenger to Nomadland is Trial and it also feels like it has a near 0 chance of winning. Still, at least the female acting awards are interesting!
They were fun until Actress became “the worst will likely win” after SAG.
“I do think given that SAG liked Ma Rainey more than the academy this probably doesn’t mean Davis is winning Oscar but it at least puts her in the race as a true possibility. I’m still thinking Mulligan but who knows!”
Yup, an important point – and same conclusions for me. 🙂
Recap of the most important things and stats to keep in mind (I know, I know, I’m terrible at this – summarizing… I just can’t let go of certain details that feel important to me, although I made an attempt here, at least, in some cases):
Best Picture
The Trial of the Chicago 7 was the stats favorite for ensemble because:
– in the last 20 years (in which BFCA has had an ensemble category) the SAG Ensemble winner had been either the PGA winner or the Critics Choice or NBR ensemble winner all but the last 2 years, and both times only one of those winners was nominated at SAG (one was Crazy Rich Asians, with no BP nomination, the other was The Irishman), whereas this year both Trial (BFCA) and Da 5 Bloods (NBR) fit the bill, with the latter, however, having no Oscar BP nomination and other issues;
– also in the last 20 years, only Chicago and Black Panther had won SAG Ensemble without a BAFTA screenplay nomination (which Minari didn’t have);
– 18 of the last 22 (now 19 of the last 23) SAG Ensemble winners won at least one of the four big precursor screenplay awards, GG/BFCA/BAFTA/WGA (and Trial was the only one this year that had); not unbeatable stats by any means, but three of them. It seems it was enough…
Not winning an award here mostly ends Promising Young Woman’s challenge – Braveheart remains a precedent of sorts (that had GG & BFCA directing wins, though – Crash is the only BP winner in the PGA era to not have either picture or director wins at PGA/DGA/GG/BFCA/BAFTA, and Crash dominated SAG), but really it seems pretty much done at this point. Seems like wishful thinking and nothing else. I guess Minari still kind of has a case, since Youn won. (Although the ensemble loss surely does hurt it, big time – but Moonlight overcame it, even if, obviously, from an overall much, much better position, in terms of precursor wins and nominations.) Personally, I don’t think that’s much of a threat either, and never really have. So it’s back to Nomadland vs. Trial, perhaps. Either that or Nomadland vs. nothing. Probably somewhere in-between. Stats say it’s much closer to the latter.
Best Actress
This is the first time in Best Actress that nobody has won at least two of the three major precursors announced so far this year (SAG, Critics Choice, Golden Globes – two categories for the latter) since all three of them have been in the game, so no full precedent there… And none of the four different such winners this year is even nominated at BAFTA.
SAG winners that won none of the other 3 (Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA):
2002 – Berry (beat a BFCA+GG drama winner, so a tougher challenge – clearly an excellent precedent for Viola)
1996 – Sarandon (beat a BFCA+GG comedy winner, so another great precedent)
2/2 won the Oscar – rough news for Mulligan. But it’s a sample of 2, so clearly beatable.
BFCA winners that won none of the other 3 (SAG, Globe, BAFTA):
2017 – Portman (lost the Oscar to a SAG+BAFTA+GG comedy winner, not really the same situation)
2003 – Moore (lost the Oscar to a SAG+GG drama winner, not the same but reasonably close, I guess)
1998 – Carter (lost the Oscar to a SAG+GG comedy winner, again not the same but definitely close)
Not counting years with ties. Co-winners are obviously even more vulnerable.
So, 0/3. More bad news. Maybe she would have won BAFTA had juries not been involved at any point…
Globe drama winners that won none of the other 3 (SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA):
2017 – Huppert (lost the Oscar to a SAG+BAFTA+GG comedy winner; she was snubbed by SAG & BAFTA too)
2006 – Huffman (lost to a SAG+BAFTA+BFCA+GG comedy winner, clearly nowhere near the same situation)
1996 – Stone (lost the Oscar to a lone SAG winner)
0/3 again.
Personally, I think this mostly means any of three can win the Oscar (meaning probably not Day or Kirby, whose stats are just horrible, particularly Day’s). With Davis now likely the front-runner, looking at the above list of precedents, although the BP snub and Boseman’s impending win should make it less likely for her to win there, which might counterbalance things – or not. For now, to be honest, I would still bet on Carey. I guess I now have to hope vote-splitting is a thing… (Recent research suggests that, if it is, it’s got minimal influence… but minimal might be enough with things being so close.) Because at the Oscars voters also have Andra Day on the ballot, who might take away some of Viola’s votes. Anyway, Carey should win Gold Derby. If she can’t do that, though, I definitely won’t predict her at the end. If she can, I’ll have to think about it, but right now, having looked at these things pretty in-depth, I still get the feeling she makes the most sense, historically/logically:
Nobody has won Best Actress at the Oscars without first winning the Globe, Critics Choice or NBR, since 1997! (Susan Sarandon is the only one in the BFCA era, and her movie had the directing nomination, another acting mention and four total Oscar nominations, so it may well have made it into the BP lineup with more than 5 slots.) This is what Davis has to beat. Berry won not only SAG, but NBR as well. Of course, what now makes Davis the likely favorite (albeit weak) is that nobody has ever won the Oscar for Best Actress – in the SAG era and a little bit beyond – without winning SAG or the Globe. However: no year ever when there were more than 5 Best Picture nominees at the Oscars have both lead acting winners failed to be in a Best Picture nominee. (And Boseman must be winning.) Big stats clashing…
The stats against Andra Day are worse: (in addition to the BP-related stat I just mentioned) no actress has won the lead Oscar in the SAG era without winning SAG, BAFTA or Critics Choice as well, and there are quite a few Globe winners that fit this description (and had done far, far better than Day everywhere else) and failed at it. More stats against Day:
– nobody has won the Oscar in this category with just the Globe win (which is the only major precursor she’s going to have, not being nominated at BAFTA), at least since all of the current ones (SAG, BAFTA, GG, BFCA, NBR, NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC) have been awarding together;
– all Best Actress winners in the SAG era were at least nominated there;
– no actress has won the Oscar in lead since 2001 without either winning NBR (plus placing top 2 at LAFCA and top 3 at NSFC – Day was also a no-show at all of these plus NYFCC) or being in a movie with multiple Oscar nominations;
– no actress has won the Oscar in lead since at least 1995 (as far as my research went) without winning either the Critics Choice (which didn’t even have awards prior to this) or at least one major/regional critics prize (no need to even include NBR) first. (Day has won nothing but the Globe.)
I maintain that her stats are just too bad to overcome. The only reason I don’t call lock against her is the James Coburn precedent – but even he wasn’t in a movie with no other Oscar nominations and had the SAG mention, even if he didn’t win anything before the Oscar. Finally, for McDormand and Kirby (in terms of only precursor wins), it’s: no actress has won the lead Oscar in the SAG era and a bit beyond without winning SAG, Critics Choice or the Globe first. It’s been done in other acting categories, though, and, with things being so split, I could see McDormand still winning the Oscar, even if she lost at BAFTA.
Best Supporting Actress
The last time SAG, BFCA and HFPA all came up with different winners for supporting actress, in 2008, a fourth person, the BAFTA winner (Swinton), won the Oscar; literally impossible this year, as the only two BAFTA+Oscar nominees are the SAG/BFCA winners. The previous time, in 2005, the SAG winner (who also then won BAFTA), Blanchett, took home the Oscar. The only other time this happened, in 2001, again a third person won the Oscar (Harden), and she didn’t even win BAFTA; she wasn’t even nominated, so this would perhaps be a precedent for Glenn Close, although not really, because Harden had the critical support (NYFCC win, etc.) and Glenn doesn’t.
The BFCA winner has beaten the SAG winner to the Oscar before (one time, long ago, even with both nominated at the Oscars), but only when they also won the Globe (which Bakalova lost, even if in a different category); on the other hand, Youn wasn’t even nominated there (Harden is the only one who’s won at the Oscars in this category in spite of that, but I guess since there’s precedent, and given the genre bias, Youn will probably beat Bakalova and may be the stats favorite, even, given that winning the BFCA alone has never been enough and winning just SAG has, even if, in this specific category, just the one time – but I guess that’s normal, given how seldom the situation even comes up to begin with; again, BAFTA and Gold Derby may clarify further.
So, reading all of the stats you posted here, my takeaway on best actress is: This year is so mad and unprecedented that stats are of very limited use and we probably have to rely on intuition but nothing makes sense so getting a good read on the race is next to impossible… I might predict by picking a name out of a hat… That will probably be more useful than any logic I can come up with!
That’s one way to look at it… But that’s a common logical mistake, in my opinion. 🙂 People tend to either trust the stats or, when they don’t give a clear answer in terms of the winner, just throw them out altogether. I’ve seen Sasha and many others do this and get things wrong because of it. (Although, evidently, one can also get things right this way – but that doesn’t mean it’s because one has decided to ignore the stats, but more likely it’s in spite of it.) Obviously, the more logical thing to do is to, even in those years, still trust and take into consideration the stats that are giving clear indications about the outcome, and just disregard the ones that are butting heads. (That’s possibly better than what I do, which is to try to go even deeper and determine which of those stats should be trusted over the other.) And the stats against Day are pretty darn clear. They have nothing to do with who else won elsewhere – the fact that there’s no consensus only means, statistically, that her chances are maybe 1%-5% instead of 0%-1%. I still don’t think anybody should be predicting her. (And Kirby is pretty much in the same boat. Even McDormand is getting there, and will if she fails to win BAFTA she will be about as unlikely to win as anybody, I’ve now realized, based on a new stat I’m about to post above – I should probably edit that part out of my longer post, about still thinking McDormand could win, but I’ll probably be too lazy to do it. So, in my opinion, one should probably pick whoever they think is more likely between Davis and Mulligan. I still tend to think is Mulligan, but she’s going to have to win Gold Derby. I don’t think she’ll have any valid excuses left if she loses that, too.)
Yeah I wasn’t really serious when I said that but it is true that I don’t think you can look at the stats this year and feel confident whatsoever in who will win. I agree with you about Day, you can’t miss that many places and still win, that would be incredibly shocking. I am sticking with Mulligan for now but I’m hoping it’s not just wishful thinking!
🙂 Yup, even the stats can’t always offer up a single correct answer. Which is nice – allows for plenty of suspense each year…
And, this year, more than usual… 🙂
Some think that ‘Trial’ may be closer to the win and ‘Nomadland’ is not a slamdunk even if it wins Bafta. Do you think Close can win the Oscar? Some think that she has lost all the awards so far since she already won them two years back for ‘The Wife’. Also Moore in 2003 really should have won. ‘Far From Heaven’ along with ‘LOTR TTT’ was top two for me that year. Swinton’s win was a stunner but ‘Michael Clayton’ was a BP nominee. That might favour Youn over Bakalova.
Trial’s path to upset would be Editing and/or script win if Nomadland misses both.
I do not see ‘Nomadland’ losing adapted screenplay. Editing is a race for now.
so tougher for Trial to upset if Nomadland locks Script on top of Director.
Brokeback Mountain won both those and still lost to crash which won original screenplay. The difference to Trial is that Crash also won WGA besides SAG Ensemble. La la land and roma both lost screenplay though.
And Crash had the directing nomination. 🙂 And BBM was missing something probably more important than SAG (the Oscar editing nomination).
Did ‘Saving Private Ryan’ miss anything? It did lose screenplay to ‘Shakespeare In Love’ but then ‘The Shape Of Water’ lost both editing and screenplay easily. Apart from Picture and Director it did not win any other top award which I think might be rare. Fascinating. But
Neither it nor SiL had any snubs. SiL won WGA and SAG Ensemble in direct competition and won SAG acting, as well. SPR had PGA+DGA – and ACE, which, as it often does, indicates the wrong winner that year, which is why I don’t use it in my system (its win stat – I have it for the nomination stat).
WGA, SAG Ensemble and ACE are a better combo usually?
All three, yes, for sure! Unbeatable, so far, in fact: 4/4 all-time.
Did ‘Saving Private Ryan’ miss anything? it did lose screenplay to its arch rival ‘Shakespeare In Love’ but ‘The Shape Of Water’ lost screenplay and editing easily. In fact apart from Picture and Director the Del Toro movie did not win any other topline award which might be rare in the modern era. Losing screenplay probably hurt ‘Three Billboards’ more that year.
and Brokeback face huge resistance which isn’t the case with Nomadland. It’s just boring.
The race is fractured enough that Close still has a small chance, yes, in my opinion.
Close’ path would be James Coburn for ‘Affliction’. A veteran getting their due despite not winning anything earlier.
Yup, pretty much… The fact that she has no major critical support puts her in that range, unfortunately. Had she had some, she would have been more in the 4-5 exceptions range, rather than just the one.
The problem with the Best Actress stat I think is that actors don’t really need to watch Ma’ Rainey to honor Viola: they know her, and the lead black actress narrative is so strong. This is a strange year. I’m sticking with Carey because I can’t stand the idea of her beautiful, timely, vibrating and faceted performance to lose. But… I think Viola or Andra is coming, at this point, for an all POC winners.
well, Andra was better. for one, she doesn’t coattail anyone while Davis is obviously coattailing Boseman (who is a sweeper unlike Davis). Two, more importantly, there’s no fatesuit&lip-sync BS in Andra’s performance. Three, she’s a stone cold lead not a border-line supporting. But sure, lets vote for narrative and then cry a river when ratings crash and people look back and call it the worst win ever. which Davis win would be.
Viola Davis isn’t winning the Oscar. This was a block for Carey Mulligan, so Andra Day can win for the Billie Holliday film. It’s so obvious. SO Many people I’ve talked to HATE Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. It wasn’t even nominated for Best Picture. The LAST time both leads won Oscars was in As Good As It Gets (Jack Nicholson and Helen Hunt)- way back in 1997-98. And that was a best film nominee. I don’t see the academy giving two people, black or white, the leads for a film not loved enough to crack the top 8. And Im talking my black family members and friends DID NOT like Davis’s film. Chadwick is winning because he isn’t with us anymore. Anthony Hopkins should be sweeping.
It is too bad the PC Oscars are truly getting desperate. I don’t mind people of color winning, but it really should be about the performance, and NOT the anger and “oh she should win because Black Actors Matter!” I mean come on. In the past 20 years, more black actors have won trophies than ever before. And for being a minority race, that’s huge. But we’re handing trophies this year to certain actors and films because it’s “just the liberal way” and it should be about the work.
Im barely around anymore because my new job has me very happy and busy pursuing my main dreams of success. But I like following AD, and will still enter the contests.
Back to the Oscars- its been a very strange year. The whole telecast tonight was a horrible Zoom meeting. This is not a typical year, and I suspect the winners at the Oscars will also be left fielders.
Shocked Glenn Close lost, though Minari’s grandmother is a gem and deserved the win. Close is trying too hard it seems, and when voters feel you’re getting desperate – they can take away your glory as fast as you thought you were getting it (J Lo in Hustlers is a good example of a presumed frontrunner who wasn’t even nominated). I still think Close has a shot, but this SAG loss was bad. BAFTA is still there, and the folks over the pond have given us many actors that win the Oscar and NOT the SAG (eg Casey Affleck, Meryl Streep, Mark Rylance, Olivia Colman). So despite their weird voting system for actors, watch who wins. It still could show you where things are swaying.
Back to Viola. Nope she’s not winning. It’s between Carey Mulligan and Andra Day. I recall when Regina King won the Globe, had no BAFTA OR SAG, and won Oscar. And at the SAGs, the voters just went with Emily Blunt. There were no stakes. The reviews for Davis’s film are weak, and I am hearing no one passionate about her performance. If someone wants to tell me Davis deserves this ON MERIT- not skin color- please tell the audience right now why she’s better then all the other four women, who are in my opinion- vastly superior.
CURRENT OSCAR PREDICTIONS – MAIN CATEGORIES
BEST PICTURE: Trial of Chicago 7
BEST DIRECTOR: Nomadland, Chloe Zhao
BEST ACTOR: Antony Hopkins, The Father (I see him taking BAFTA, upsetting at the Oscars)
BEST ACTRESS: Andra Day, The United States vs Billie Holiday
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Father
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Trial of Chicago 7
BEST ANIMATED FILM: Soul
BEST FOREIGN FILM: Another Round, Denmark
If ‘Trial’ can win Screenplay and Film that will be one of the big turnarounds in Oscar’s history. It should have won the WGA. If it can also win the ACE maybe there is hope. Hopkins will be a stunner but this is the last time reward Boseman. I feel that ‘Promising Young Woman’ will not leave empty handed.
PYW is winning the Original Script. At least that. So not empty handed.
And we can’t even be 100% sure of that yet… 🙂
yep, everything about PYW is so unsure.
I don’t want it to happen, but Green Book won screenplay just with GG Screenplay before the oscar. Chicago 7 may have a similar trajectory, altho in that year, all the other screenplay awards went to different films, and this year it seems all the original screenplay awards are going to PYW.
Good point. It’s also good to be alert to possibilities.
If ‘Trial’ can win Screenplay and Film that will be one of the big turnarounds in Oscar’s history. It should have won the WGA. If it can also win the ACE maybe there is hope. Hopkins will be a stunner but this is the last time reward Boseman. I feel that ‘Promising Young Woman’ will not leave empty handed.
”SO Many people I’ve talked to HATE Ma Rainey’s. It wasn’t even nominated for Best Picture.”
Not everyone shares your tastes. The Broadcast Film Critics nominated it for Best Picture, and ”Ma Rainey’s” was named to the top 10 list by the PGA and the American Film Institute.
”It is too bad the PC Oscars are truly getting desperate. I don’t mind people of color winning …”
That sounds so offensive and condescending. You ”don’t mind people of color winning”? Don’t tell me: Some of your best friends are ”people of color,” too. Are you seriously suggesting that white actors win based on ”performance,” but actors of color only win because of their skin color? Why couldn’t Davis have won on merit? ”Ma Rainey’s” is her 4th Oscar nomination. She’s a 6-time Globe nominee and 5-time Emmy nominee. Davis’ wins include an Oscar, a Globe and an Emmy, plus a Tony and a BAFTA. Even if you don’t respect her work, plenty of critics and industry folk do. SAG voters have nominated her 10 times, and she’s now won 6 times.
”In the past 20 years, more black actors have won trophies than ever before.”
Since 2000, black actors have won 13 of the 80 acting Oscars. But what about the first 70 years of the Academy Awards, when practically ALL of the acting Oscars went to white actors? This is the 93rd annual Oscars. Only one black woman has won Best Actress (in 2002). And you’re going on a tirade about Davis, a much-heralded performer of stage, TV and film, and how she might become the SECOND black woman to win Best Actress in nearly a century? Geez!
I do agree. I feel Andra Day is going to win the Oscar. I can’t see two individuals winning for Ma Rainey’s when the movie wasn’t even nominated for Best Picture.
Regina won the Critics Choice and NBR+NYFCC+LAFCA+NSFC, though. And pretty much everything else. Day has won nothing else (besides the Globe). Her stats are horrible in other ways, too – see my longer post above for details! I think it’s Carey or Viola. Viola is probably the favorite (the stats just don’t clarify, both have big-but-probably-beatable stats going against them) but I still feel like Carey is more likely, somehow.
Trial’s stats for picture are very bad too. No movie has won without a PGA/DGA/WGA win since Out of Africa (and that was pre-PGA). No movie has ever won after being snubbed for directing and losing the WGA. No movie has ever won after losing picture+director+screenplay at the Critics Choice. 0/25. And so on…
Unfortunately, Glenn isn’t nominated at BAFTA, so that can’t help her. If Youn lost there, maybe it would help her somewhat, but probably not enough…
“It is too bad the PC Oscars are truly getting desperate.”
Ironically, that’s what happens when you fill the line-up with woke and can’t decide which woke to back up. Granted, they easily went with race in male categories but are clearly torn between race and #metoo in female ones. hence no one sweeping, but everyone only scoring one precursor win before the Oscars.
I’ve been saying for a while now that the race is between Day & Davis. Emmys, Golden Globes & SAG all saw a Black Lead Actress pull an upset. I may be in the minority here but I actually prefer Davis over Mulligan. They’re both fantastic, though.
It’s not cos they both take votes from each other ; its between Davis and Mulligan
Yeah but it’s not, though. 🙂 It’s Mulligan and Davis, apparently, with McDormand and Day as potential spoilers, maybe. (Kirby isn’t technically out of it but seems to have no real arguments – unless she wins BAFTA, which I honestly don’t think she will.) You’re right that it will be hard to beat the Black contenders this year (this is the main concern), but maybe when there are two (not the case here) and thousands of people are voting (which wasn’t the case at the Globes) they split the vote, particularly since they’ve now both won exactly one significant precursor and that’s the only one they’re going to win – and there is a clear alternative (Mulligan, the BFCA, NBR & LAFCA winner and still the bookies and pundits favorite – McDormand only has NSFC, Kirby hasn’t won anything). We shall see…
Is it actually possible to support one nominee but not trash one or more of the others? Because if one was to go by this site (and probably others; I just know this one), it would appear the answer is “NO!!!”, time and time again. I’ve noticed it the most over the years in the Best Actress and Best Picture categories, and anyone looking to confirm the “rabid fanboy” trope here would find all the possible ammo they’d ever need over the past 15-20 years of commentary. I’m old enough to remember fanboys screaming about how Marion Cotillard had better win over Julie Christie, or Avatar over The Hurt Locker, or what seems to be going down now with Viola Davis and Carey Mulligan, and all y’all have just about worked my last nerve on this topic.
Marion and Julie both gave excellent performances in their year, and while Marion happened to win, Julie would have been just as good a winner had it come to that. The same holds true for Carey and Viola: they’re both damn good actresses who gave damn good performances, and either one of them would be a worthy Oscar winner. Yes, Academy voters keep current events and societal shifts in mind when they look over their ballots, but claiming if Viola wins that it’s only because everyone’s pretending to be “woke” would be fully as a big a steaming pile of bullshit as it would be to suggest that, if Carey wins, it’s because more of the membership finds her attractive. Neither one would necessarily be true, and they’re both extremely insulting to the actresses in question. Additionally, while there are always those voters who vote for what they think they “ought” to, or just hand their ballot over to their personal assistant/maid/youngest child and tell them to fill it in, I’m inclined to think that most Academy voters do put a fair amount of thought into their eventual votes, and go with whoever they genuinely feel deserves the award. FFS, people, it’s not as if the entire membership gets together on Zoom so they can coordinate their votes!
There have been people I’ve stanned pretty intensely over the years (Adrien Brody immediately comes to mind), but did I spend the rest of my time trash-talking the other four nominees any of those times? No, I did not. Yes, it’s disappointing when the person or film you’re backing doesn’t win; I won’t say it isn’t, but try to keep a sense of perspective about things. Just as your person winning isn’t going to guarantee world peace and carrot cake with cream cheese icing for everyone, the opposite happening doesn’t mean you’re going to lose a couple of inches off Little Elvis, I promise. And you know what else? Within a week or so of the envelope being opened, most people–including most people who strange, but true.
The more you trash other nominees, the worse you look; if that were all, that would be bad enough, except–it has a nasty little tendency to taint your candidate by association, especially if they win. Think about it for a while…
“Marion and Julie both gave excellent performances in their year, and while Marion happened to win, Julie would have been just as good a winner had it come to that. The same holds true for Carey and Viola: they’re both damn good actresses who gave damn good performances, and either one of them would be a worthy Oscar winner.”
Yup, agree 100%.
“There have been people I’ve stanned pretty intensely over the years (Adrien Brody immediately comes to mind), but did I spend the rest of my time trash-talking the other four nominees any of those times? No, I did not.”
Same here. (Not on the Brody thing specifically, of course – wasn’t following the Oscars yet, back then.) Most of the time, I’m fine with any of the top contenders winning, in a vacuum, even if I badly want one of them to win. (As I do with Carey this year.)
“while there are always those voters who vote for what they think they “ought” to, or just hand their ballot over to their personal assistant/maid/youngest child and tell them to fill it in, I’m inclined to think that most Academy voters do put a fair amount of thought into their eventual votes, and go with whoever they genuinely feel deserves the award. FFS, people, it’s not as if the entire membership gets together on Zoom so they can coordinate their votes!”
Yeah but the thing is it doesn’t take coordination. When the race is close and people’s preferences split, a few votes can decide, and while the votes of those who vote on merit alone (or try to) will not sway matters decisively one way or the other in those years, the votes of those who don’t will overwhelmingly go in the same direction (one or two people), for obvious reasons, which, even if it’s just 1-200 people voting like this, at most, can easily decisively affect the outcome.
Pete Hammond at Deadline.com: ”As far as I can see from all the attempted leaks of winners names before tonight’s big reveal none of them were correct.” Gee, the one leak that I saw reported at Hollywood Elsewhere got 4 of the 5 film-acting winners correct. Youn Yuh-jung was the only surprise.
If it was an actual leak it would have gotten 5 out of 5 correct.
‘Trial’ winning Ensemble might be like ‘Birdcage’ and ‘Hidden Figures’. The win does not translate to Oscars. Viola Davis now has five individual Sag awards (including two back to back wins on the TV side) and a sixth for being part of ‘The Help’s ensemble.
She has just tied Julianna Marguilies and Julia Louis-Dreyfus who have won five individual SAG awards all on the TV side.
I am glad I put that bet on for Viola at SAG thanks to that ‘leak’. think she made sense from the beginning. I think in a normal year she would have made the BAFTA cut (she got in there for Widows). The only weird thing is her not winning at the Globes.
I still suspect BAFTA will go with Youn and then Close will go and win the Oscar under everyone’s nose.
In a normal year Carey would have made the BAFTA cut too, it’s even clearer. And would have had just as good of a chance of winning there as Viola or anybody else. I suspect she would have been favorite, although SAG might have changed this.
“The only weird thing is her not winning at the Globes.”
She also lost Critics Choice. Most Oscar winners don’t…
I know you value the Critics Choice for your stats but I view them as a prediction contest … and this year of uncertainty they couldn’t get a ‘measure of the room’ in the run up because they weren’t actually *in* any rooms.
I agree about Mulligan. She has been shafted this year and I have no doubt she would have run off with BAFTA.
“I have no doubt she would have run off with BAFTA.”
There you go! Then she wouldn’t even need Critics Choice to have a very strong case. (Not that it wouldn’t help.) BAFTA is just as good a predictor as SAG in this category and knowing she would have likely won that had the votes happened under the system used up until this year makes her position look so much stronger, in my opinion… The only thing she’s “losing” is the opportunity to win another TV award, but maybe (well, probably) the British bloc will be annoyed they weren’t given the chance to vote for her at BAFTA, due to the dumb juries, so they’ll want to support her at the Oscars even more than they would have otherwise… And the Critics Choice win and her status of pundits/bookies favorite will give them the confidence to give her their vote, knowing it won’t be wasted, since she clearly has a very good chance to actually win that Oscar.
For all you Qanon Oscar watchers, please let me know how 100,000+ SAG voters conspired to have nothing but POC win? Did they have one big get-together at the Ramada in Burbank to fix the vote? If so, who catered the event because that’s a lot of people!
They don’t need to conspire. A majority of them just have to react the same way to certain indirect outside influences/pressures and voila!… (Of course, it helps that 2/4 were already “anointed”, perhaps even “sealed”, the male winners, and a third – Youn – was basically co-favorite. Probably not many votes needed to changed direction anyway.)
Or…or…now stay with me on this one…ready? That Boseman and Kaluuya actually gave the best male performances. Now how’s that for a radical thought! Hey, wait I second, I just realized that Chicago 7 won Ensemble with a majority white cast. Why isn’t Film Twitter squawking about that?? I guess we know why THAT film won, don’t we, beating all the other films that had majority POC casts? #SAGENSEMBLESOWHITE
Yes, ’cause we all know only the best performances win awards. 🙂
Youn Yuh-jung made some SAG history, too: She’s the first East Asian actress to win a film Award, and she’s the 1st film actress to win a SAG Award for a foreign-language performance. (No Asian men have won a SAG film-acting award, but two – Riz Ahmed and Steven Yeun – were SAG nominated this year.)
What’s also impressive is that, to U.S. audiences, Youn’s basically an unknown. older Korean actress.
P.S.: In the past 10 years, 9 of the SAG Award winners for Supporting Actress have gone on to win the Oscar in this category. (Emily Blunt, the 2019 SAG winner for ”A Quiet Place,” was the exception.)
And Blunt wasn’t nominated at the Oscars. 🙂
Scattered thoughts:
No one is dominating.
Viola Davis – Congratulations to Viola. Stellar actress. SAG loved her this year — they always do. Actors in the Academy will vote for her, big time. Will she get the most votes from the Academy at Large?
Andra Day – SAG didn’t go for her. BAFTA didn’t go for her OR her movie. That – on paper – is a considerable amount of cross-over voting that wouldn’t go in her direction. She has the Globes win in her sails. It looms LARGE. Can she win the Oscar with no other nominations? Is Davis stealing votes, or vice-versa? I can’t figure out just how strong she is. She could be 1st by a margin … or 5th … and I wouldn’t be surprised either way.
Vanessa Kirby – It’s the type of performance that wins Oscars. She has defied people time and time again about even being nominated. She is strong. She could still win BAFTA. But like Day, she is her film’s only nomination. And she doesn’t have a Globes win in her sails like Day does.
Frances McDormand – She may win at BAFTA. That would be her only major win this year. She is the Lead Actress in the Oscar fave for Best Picture. That’s big. And the Academy loves her. But is it enough this year?
Carey Mulligan – The presumed front runner that has only won the Critics’ Choice. That said, in a normal year, I think she would’ve been nominated and ultimately won at BAFTA. She also could be in 2nd place with each of these losses.
Promising Young Woman is beloved by the Academy across many branches. But will they coalesce for a win for Carey? Who knows?
So the gist: I see major reasons why each of these talented actresses WILL or WILL NOT win the Oscar. smh
Good analysis ; Mulligan would have indeed won BAFTA , and it’s likely to win screenplay at Oscar ..I think it’s between those two , but Andra Day takes votes from Davis , so I think I’ll go for Mulligan… I suspect that Kirby wins BAFTA ; as a Brit she has hometown advantage and it does seem unlikely that FRancis will win BAFTA and not OSCAR; plus she won there recently for 3 Billboards
Nobody is first by a margin – they would have won (or been nominated) more if they were.
My heart breaks for Carey. I’m so damn happy seeing a queen like Viola score another record – breaking win and she’d be a much deserving winner at The Oscars as well but Carey Mulligan’s uncompromising, daring, astonishing turn in Promising Young Woman deserved a sweep of the category this year.
She could still break all the stats and win, especially in such a crazy year but predicting her at this point sadly feels way too risky. I wish she makes an Adrien Brody and shocks everyone comes Oscar night. She’d definitely make for one of the most deserving Best Actress winners in quite some time.
The stats are far from conclusive on who’s even the favorite between her and Davis, honestly…
I know.. There are many stats and clues against her right now and personally I can’t predict her despite the fact that I want her to win come Oscar night for her exceptional turn. This year is pure madness and Carey’s jaw-dropping work deserved to sweep every Best Actress award out there.
Yeah, I’ve decided I probably can’t predict her either. But still think she could easily upset.
Mulligan will get her revenge at BAFTA! Oh…wait a sec….uh, never mind. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d6b46cd5255f6e2e5b0c7400f4f3c248efe324f9c924c00464f2cb34bc6be1b1.gif
I kinda had enough with the Davis’ hype. It wasn’t a good performance and it shouldn’t be near awards consideration. I’m so over her history-making moments & awards success. Like how much is enough? There are other hard-workers in the industry as well. She’s among the most paid actresses and won all the awards in the world – it’s time to move on and spread some love. Go Carey Mulligan! Go Andra Day!
Wow. I never seen so much hate for an award winning. And I agree with all of you, Davis in Ma Rainy is…what she is. That movie is atrocious and so annoying. I’m not crazy for Mulligan performance like all of you but she deserves this Oscar winning as hell. I’m still touched by her work in Shame. I stan for her or Day…
I think the Actor Categories are a done deal, but both Actress Categories are wide open.
#JUSTICEFORMULLIGAN
THIS
THIS
These female acting awards are mad and super fun this year! Both have gone to different people at all 3 major precursors so far (globes, CCA, sag) and it will probably continue in lead at BAFTA (Mulligan, David and Day are not nominated so it’ll probably be McDormand) – even though supporting will probably be Bakalova or Youn and then one of them will almost certainly win the Oscar. I do think given that SAG liked Ma Rainey more than the academy this probably doesn’t mean Davis is winning Oscar but it at least puts her in the race as a true possibility. I’m still thinking Mulligan but who knows! It could even be Day or McDormand.
The male acting awards are pretty much over.
I also think Minari as potential best picture winner is over (it really won’t be able to win any top prize leading up to Oscar now). The only real challenger to Nomadland is Trial and it also feels like it has a near 0 chance of winning. Still, at least the female acting awards are interesting!