For the last little while, the BAFTA has shown us in some cases what some recent Oscar races might have been like if there were a five nominee ballot for Best Picture rather than an expanded ballot of 8 or 9 nominees. That means the majority of their voters voted for the film they thought was the best film, as opposed to a preferential ballot deciding what the overall group of voters can agree on is best.
BAFTA, Oscar Pic/Director – The Hurt Locker (PGA/DGA)
BAFTA, Oscar Pic – The King’s Speech (PGA/DGA/SAG Ensemble)
BAFTA Director: The Social Network
Oscar Director: The King’s Speech
BAFTA, Oscar Pic + Director – The Artist (PGA/DGA)
BAFTA, Oscar Pic – Argo (PGA/DGA/SAG Ensemble)
BAFTA Director – Argo
Oscar Director – Life of Pi
BAFTA, Oscar Pic – 12 Years a Slave (shared PGA with Gravity)
BAFTA, Oscar Director – Gravity
BAFTA Pic + Director – Boyhood
Oscar Pic + Director – Birdman (PGA/DGA/SAG Ensemble)
BAFTA Pic + Director.- The Revenant
Oscar Pic – Spotlight (SAG)
Oscar Director – The Revenant (DGA)
BAFTA Pic + Director – La La land (PGA/DGA)
Oscar Director – La La Land
Oscar Picture – Moonlight
BAFTA Pic – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (SAG)
BAFTA/Oscar Director – The Shape of Water (DGA)
Oscar Picture – The Shape of Water (PGA)
Bafta Pic + Director – Roma
Oscar Director – Roma (DGA)
Oscar Pic – Green Book (PGA)
BAFTA Pic + Director – 1917 (PGA, DGA)
Oscar Pic + Director – Parasite (SAG)
The thing that really changed was the Academy inviting in new members after #oscarssowhite in 2016. But even that doesn’t seem to really explain why there is such a significant disconnect. It could just be the raw numbers – BAFTA has around 6,000 members and the Academy has almost 9,921 members, or thereabouts. Or it could be the preferential ballot vs. the non-preferential ballot.
The bottom line here is that we do not know how Best Picture will turn out. But here are the BAFTA nominees:
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Probably Nomadland will win here. I can’t imagine any other film taking this in looking over BAFTA history. But does that mean it matches at the Oscars? The last time that happened was in 2013 for 12 Years a Slave, which was a split year. In 2012, 2011, 2010 and 2009 they matched with the Oscars. They did change their voting process in 2013 – but I believe they only changed it to go from three rounds of initial voting to two rounds. But that would not explain why the Oscars have been so different in recent years.
Best Director is probably not unpredictable. We know Chloe Zhao will take that award and the DGA the same day. Since 2009, the least difficult award to predict is Best Director. One director dominates the field for the entire season. It’s only Best Picture that is sometimes up in the air.
Next we get to the acting categories and here we might see some surprises. That’s because all of the acting categories, like the directing category, were chosen with the assistance of a selected jury rather than the members alone. This, to ensure inclusivity in the nominees.
We assume the frontrunners in Best Actor (Chadwick Boseman and Daniel Kaluuya) will prevail here, as well as the Oscars. But what about Best Actress and Supporting Actress?
Bukky Bakray, Rocks
Radha Blank, The Forty-Year-Old Version
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Wunmi Mosaku, His House
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Of these six nominees, only Rocks and Nomadland have corresponding Director nominations. Could that mean that they are the most favored heading in? It’s hard to say. McDormand is the only one with an Oscar nomination, which seems like she could be favored to win, even with the inclusion efforts by the BAFTA. But honestly, any of them could win and it would not be surprising.
Here is Supporting Actress:
Niamh Algar, Calm with Horses Ursula
Kosar Ali, Rocks
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah
Ashley Madekwe, County Lines
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Two of them have Oscar nominations, and Rocks comes in with another jury nomination. This seems like an easy call for Youn Yuh-Jung for Minari.
In terms of Best Actor, in a different year Anthony Hopkins might be winning this easily, as The Father has a Best Picture nomination. But I’m not sure they will do that THIS year.
As we move out of the jury selected main categories, we take a look at Screenplay. Here we see the second grouping of the films that seem to be most popular at BAFTA (we don’t have Director for this, only Picture and Screenplay):
Another Round, Tobias Lindholm and Thomas Vinterberg
Mank, Jack Fincher
Promising Young Woman, Emerald Fennell
Rocks, Theresa Ikoko and Claire Wilson
The Trial of the Chicago 7, Aaron Sorkin
Rocks is still a very clear favorite here at BAFTA and I would not be surprised if it picks up a win somewhere.
The win here seems to be between Promising Young Woman and Trial of the Chicago 7. Both have a Best Picture nomination as well. Promising has six BAFTA noms and would have had Actress probably. Trial has three and would have had Director probably. I guess I tip this in Fennell’s favor.
Adapted Screenplay will go to Nomadland, most likely, with a tiny possibility The Father wins it, since it has a Best Picture and Best actor nomination. The White Tiger, The Mauritanian and The Dig probably aren’t winning, although you never know.
Here are the nominations tallies of the most honored films (I may be forgetting some):
Nomadland – 7
Rocks – 7
The Father – 6
Promising Young Woman – 6
Minari – 6
Mank – 6
The Dig – 5
The Mauritanian – 5
Another Round – 4
Judas and the Black Messiah – 4
News of the World – 4
The Sound of Metal – 4
Trial of the Chicago 7 – 3
Soul – 3
The White Tiger – 2
The forty-year-old-version – 2
Quo vadis, Aida? – 2
Babyteeth – 1
We will maybe be posting our predictions, since it’s a little unpredictable, on Friday.