This year’s Best Actress race is the most unpredictable and competitive in years. That makes it nearly impossible to predict. Let’s count the ways.
If Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman win on the 25th, it will be the first year that the Best Actor and Best Actress winners both appeared in a film not nominated for Best Picture since Denzel Washington won for Training Day and Halle Berry won for Monster’s Ball, two decades ago. Before that, in 1974 Art Carney won for Harry and Tonto and Ellen Burstyn won for Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore. In 1947, Ronald Colman won for A Double Life and Loretta Young won for The Farmer’s Daughter.
When was the last time two lead actors won for the same movie that wasn’t nominated for Best Picture? Never. It has never happened. Two actors have won from films nominated for Best Picture, like Jack Nicholson and Helen Hunt from As Good as It Gets or Jack Nicholson and Louis Fletcher for One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest. But never for a film that isn’t nominated for Best Picture, especially in the era of the expanded ballot.
Viola Davis has in her favor that she won the SAG award for Best Actress. As long as there has been a Screen Actors Guild award, no actress has ever won the Oscar without winning either the Globe or the SAG first.
Best Actress usually isn’t as competitive these days as it once was in decades past. It is further complicated by the fact that two black actresses are up for the win. Halle Berry is the first and still the only black actress to win in all of Oscar history. Anyone who wants their vote to help represent progress might find their intention split with another voter who chose someone else for the same reason. The more competitive the race, the more likely it is for unpredictable splits to occur.
Some are imagining that Carey Mulligan is the Adrien Brody of this year. Adrien Brody won the Best Actor Oscar because there was a three-way split. That year, Jack Nicholson won the Golden Globe for About Schmidt and Daniel Day-Lewis won the SAG for Gangs of New York. Neither of those movies were liked very much. About Schmidt did not have a Best Picture nomination, though had there been an expanded ballot it would have. Still, because the date was extended back then, as it is now, there was time for The Pianist to rally and win Director, Screenplay, and Actor in a last minute shocker. That meant Chicago still won Best Picture and Supporting Actress but did not win Director nor Screenplay.
There are those Oscar years where three strong performances are neck and neck among voters and the actor we might least expect tips the balance to pull ahead of the other two, like Adrien Brody. What are some other examples of that? Here are a few that stand out when quickly scanning Oscar history. No doubt, there are more because these often revolve around popularity of the time, not necessarily what remains popular in the future.
1936 — Barbara Stanwyck in Stella Dallas and Greta Garbo in Camille lose out to Luise Ranier in The Good Earth (who won her second back-to-back Oscar after winning the previous year in The Great Ziegfeld.
1940 — Katharine Hepburn in The Philadelphia Story and Joan Fontaine in Rebecca (Best Picture winner) lose to Ginger Rogers in Kitty Foyle (interesting to note, Fontaine lost in 1940 but won the following year for Suspicion)
1950 — Bette Davis, Anne Baxter in All About Eve and Gloria Swanson in Sunset Boulevard lose to Judy Holliday in Born Yesterday.
1954 — Judy Garland in A Star Is Born, Dorothy Dandridge in Carmen Jones, and Audrey Hepburn in Sabrina all lose to Grace Kelly in The Country Girl.
1961 — Natalie Wood in Splendor in the Grass and Audrey Hepburn in Breakfast at Tiffany’s lose to Sophia Loren in Two Women.
1962 — Betty Davis in What Ever Happened to Baby Jane, Katharine Hepburn in Long Day’s Journey Into Night, Lee Remick in Days of Wine and Roses, and Geraldine Page in Sweet Bird of Youth all lose to Anne Bancroft in The Miracle Worker.
1977 — Marsha Mason in The Goodbye Girl, Shirley MacLaine/Anne Bancroft for The Turning Point, and Jane Fonda for Julia all lose to Diane Keaton for Annie Hall.
1985 — Whoopi Goldberg in The Color Purple, Jessica Lange in Sweet Dreams, and Meryl Streep in Out of Africa all lose to Geraldine Page in Trip to Bountiful.
1987 — Holly Hunter in Broadcast News, Meryl Streep in Ironweed, and Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction lose to Cher for Moonstruck.
2012 — Emanuelle Riva in Amour and Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty lose to Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook.
Andra Day, if she wins, would win for a film with no other Oscar nominations at all. That can happen but it’s rare. Less rare lately but still mostly rare:
1928/1929 — Mary Pickford, Coquette
1930/1931 — Marie Dressler, Min and Bill
1931/1932 — Helen Hayes, The Sin of Madelon Claudet
1932/1933 — Kate Hepburn, Morning Glory
1935 — Bette Davis, Dangerous
1957 — Joanne Woodward, The Three Faces of Eve
1961 — Sofia Loren, Two Women
1988 — Jodie Foster, The Accused
1990 — Kathy Bates, Misery
1994 — Jessica Lange, Blue Sky
2003 — Charlize Theron, Monster
2014 — Julianne Moore, Still Alice
What Day has going for her is that she won the Golden Globe over Frances McDormand (BAFTA), Viola Davis (SAG), and Carey Mulligan (Critics Choice). The only other time the four have gone up against each other was at the Critics Choice where Carey Mulligan prevailed. More often than not the Globe winner, from one or the other category, goes on to win the Oscar.
Day has history working slightly in her favor in that the last (and only other time) two black actresses are nominated in the same year and one of them was playing Billie Holiday (Diana Ross).
Carey Mulligan is up against the Globe/SAG stat, meaning her win would have to totally break precedent. What she has going for her, however, is that she’s in a Best Picture nominee.
In the Best Actor category, Chadwick Boseman has won the Globe and the SAG. His death has a major impact here in the states and not as much of an impact in the UK, which is why Anthony Hopkins won in Best Actor for The Father. But here’s the thing: Boseman is not starring in a Best Picture contender. The only actor who has won without one in the era of the expanded ballot is Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart. He was up against Jeremy Renner, who starred in the Best Picture winner, The Hurt Locker, and George Clooney, who was also in a Best Picture nominee, Up in the Air. Clooney, especially, was a strong frontrunner heading into the race. If you used the Best Picture contender logic there you would have chose Clooney to win. Bridges had both the Globe and the SAG but he, like Boseman, lost the BAFTA to a British favorite, Colin Firth for A Single Man.
Like Boseman, Bridges had an “urgency to win” aura around his nomination. He was beloved, he was overdue and he was giving his all in his last remaining months. In general, though, where Best Actor is concerned, Best Picture is a reliable predictor for a win.
Stat busters:
If Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman both win for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, they will become the first co-stars to win the lead acting categories without a Best Picture nomination.
If Andra Day wins, she’ll be the first to win with a Globe and Oscar without a SAG nomination in all of SAG’s history.
If Carey Mulligan (or Frances McDormand) wins, she will be the first since SAG began to win the Oscar without winning either the Globe or the SAG.
If Frances McDormand wins, she’ll join only Katharine Hepburn (who has four) for having three or more Best Lead Actress wins (Meryl Streep has two).
If Chadwick Boseman wins, he’ll join just two actors with posthumous Oscar wins: Peter Finch for Network (lead) and Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight (supporting).
Thanks Sasha for your great research and insight into this year’s Oscars. Just to add to the best actress race discussion – not only would Viola and Chadwick make history for winning without the film being nominated for best picture but also, every film that has won both actor and actress has been nominated for screenplay (every film has won except As Good As It Gets which was nominated) and Ma Rainey has no nomination for screenplay.
On Andra Day, she may be the first actress to win best actress without a SAG nomination but, if the other nominees won the award they would be only the third actress this century who was won the Oscar without a Globe (following Halle Berry and Olivia Colman). That gives Andra Day a fighting chance.
Maybe The Father is The Pianist this year and wins actor and screenplay. (Can’t directing).
Anthony Hopkins or Riz Ahmed should win Lead Actor…..Vanessa Kirby or Andra Day should win Lead Actress in my opinion.
Glenn Close is winning for her Hillbilly role, and she’s wearing the costume on stage! With the glasses, with the voice. It’s going to be either really funny, or really really “offensive”. Can’t get my readings yet until I check with my Twitter psychics.
I do know I have ONE name to tell you that will give this all away. Helen Roberta Allen, II. Now do you see???
Okay so if you don’t see, Helen just happens to be THE most important psychic in all of western Idaho- the state Time magazine voted as having “the best tippers in restaurants.” San Francisco, ironically where mostly rich people live, has the cheapest. These folks need to start handing out more money to others besides their town homes on a hill.
Close is the obvious winner. The academy knows it. The SAGs and Globes recently gave her their honor for The Wife, which like Hillbilly, was a career award. So her losing to the Minari Grandmother doesn’t really do much here. However, the grandmother in Minari has a higher power, that allows her to transfer her love to her grandson in a touching scene that is very important. So Minari def has the passion. And its a best pic nominee. It also is going to WIN.
Nomadland IS NOT winning best picture. EVERYONE I talk to is NOT passionate about it, RESPECTS it, but finds it’s more of a DIRECTOR achievement (eg Roma, La La Land, The Revenant, 1917). Everyone saying Frances McDormand is losing because she’s too sustained. UM Hello?? She’s the movie. Without her, we would just be watching the desert the entire time- with a bunch of parked campers.
Minari or Sound of Metal is your best picture winner, with The Father coming in a strong third. Many of the older voters are going to pick The Father because they’re going through (or know someone) who is experiencing what Anthony Hopkins (and the rest of the audience) goes through. But think back to PASSION. Passion wins you the Oscar these days. That’s what got Olivia Colman on that stage two years ago, and its what won Parasite best pic AND director. Minari or Sound of Metal I guarantee are more liked then Nomadland by the average voter. Especially with a longer season- voters have time to sit down and stream these films, or not even bother.
Anthony Hopkins and Andra Day are winning in the Lead Acting Races. The former gives the best performance of the 20 nominees. And again, all I keep reading on secret ballots are “I KNOW Anthony gives the best performance, but Chadwick, well…” Those usually turn into “I’m gonna go with my heart” which means Anthony. Chadwick is in a movie nobody likes at all. Viola Davis is better then him, and puts more of herself into the role, including the weight gain. But Day is much more vibrant and plays a real life celebrity. That never hurts.
Finally Daniel Kaluuya will be the only yawn in the acting races, but he plans to celebrate his win bygetting to the Governor’s Ball early to have wine and a reading with YOURS TRULY!! So I will be at the Oscars this year- whether in body or spirit
Good luck!
Here’s Best Actor and Best Actress charts for the last 20 years with the movies and all the major awards that they’ve won. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7c4533461c5a3321ac352d38dbdc4901f66b0d8fc012190b3fb937040907d8c4.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/304350f94ac41cb6e6272bda4aeca45ec9574b99baa1bf825d8ca52085621050.png
Thank you! Well done!
Nicely done, Richard!
thank you, that was really well done!
so, in the last 20 years, a BAFTA win alone is not enough to get you an Oscar (unless you’re called Kate Winslet, and even in her case she still had two Globes for two different films – if you tweak the categories you could still say that she had not one, but two precursors going on for her, and this rule still applies).
that’s why I’m still going with Boseman for best actor, in spite of the late Hopkins surge. maybe I’ll bet on Hopkins in my No Guts, No Glory.
And Kate Winslet still won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and the SAG for The Reader… but in Supporting. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dbbf6b15c4ecd81297891d0460c94f5f2a5a807ea21280e7b70670b8fa9e1f1b.png
yup. 2008 was bonkers.
interestingly enough, a BAFTA win alone was enough for Tilda Swinton and Penelope Cruz on their road to their Oscars (so maybe I was too quick to dismiss Hopkins? nah, I’m sticking with Boseman)
I would stick to Boseman. Swinton’s year, there were three different winners in the States. She didn’t have to defeat *one* BFCA/GG/SAG winner. In other words, the competition was all over the place.
Cruz won b/c in the States Winslet won all in supporting for The Readers, which she got elevated to Lead at the Oscar, clearing the way for Cruz.
Boseman is in my official prediction list. Hopkins will be my NGNG.
And Mark Rylance
Rylance’s competition was Sylvester Stallone who won GG and BFCA, but Stallone was snubbed at SAG. The winner at SAG was not nominated at the Oscars. Rylance was also in a 6 time BP nominee and he won multiple major critics prizes. Stallone was the only nominee in Creed.
Sure the BAFTA win helped, but Rylance’s competition was weak.
These are great. Can you also do one for supporting actor? 🙂
I think this year, stats don’t necessarily apply. It’s unprecedented, isn’t it? I am unsure that the obvious picks (Mulligan, Boseman, Youn and Kaluuya) are completely locked up.
Actress: Mulligan should be the logical winner, but McDormand, Davis wouldn’t shock me at all.
Actor: Boseman seems a lock, but BAFTA put that into question. I would even consider an Ahmed upset as well.
Supporting Actress: yes, it seems Youn’s to lose, however Close losing an 8th time? Also, Bakalova winning the precursor that has transferred to an Oscar win since 2008 and then losing it? And Borat keeps popping everywhere (now a Casting Society win: the industry is clearly supporting the film, if you think twice, Borat won the Casting Society just for discovering Maria Bakalova to the world, because what other actor/actress did they “discover”? Or they award the casting of the subjects to be played with?).
Supporting Actor: Kaluuya all the way? Sure? I think his co-star is better (even better) and there are narratives for Raci, Baron Cohen and Odom, Jr. to take it, if enough people penalizes obvious leads and also Stanfield syphoons enough votes from Kaluuya (they have never faced each other in any Award precursor, as Stanfield was campaigned as Lead).
Same with the screenplays…
Original seems Promising Young Woman, however if Mulligan wins, they may be picking up Minari instead? Or Chicago 7? It’s a 3 way race, probably.
Adapted is a similar case… Nomadland would logically win, however The Father and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm have both strong narratives to upset, if the AMPAS has a Zhao overload (would they want to give her 4 Oscars?)
So while I stick with Mulligan – Boseman – Youn – Kaluuya – PYW – Nomadland… I think it is more of a nailbitter than it seems. Even Best Picture, I am not sold at all that Nomadland can’t lose it. The only one I am certain, is Zhao as Director.
You say that every year, though, and they always apply about as much as is mathematically possible (given major stat clashes), at least above the line…
I did not realise that Bates and Foster were their movies only nomination. Should have had Screenplay nominations. When Theron and Moore won the other actresses also did not star in a BP nominee. And they won everything. Moore was overdue. So she cannot be compared to Day who many people do not know.
The precedent for Day is Regina King who was also not SAG or Bafta nominated. But King also won the BFCA. And If Beale Street Could Talk had other Oscar nominations. I do not have a big issue with Cher winning though Close is iconic in Fatal Attraction.
King also won GG. And plenty of major critics awards. Unlike Day.
I think Viola and Day will spilt vote. I just don’t see Frances winning another lead actress this year. Especially since of the 5 Performances hers is the most understated. Is doesn’t have any “oscar scenes” IMO. I also think voters know that if they vote Nomadland Best Picture, that Frances will still win for producing.
I think Carey will win but I’m becoming concerned bc she hasn’t really won much.
I could honestly see Vanessa Kirby sneaking a win. If there is significant vote splitting…perhaps Kirby could surprise. She gives far and away the most showy performance and the most dramatic. Huge dramatic oscar kinda scenes. She hasn’t won anywhere but she has been nominated everytime.
People tend to overreact with the BAFTA outcomes. Every time a Brit (or European) wins there instead of the frontrunner, you have to pause and be suspicious.
Just sayin’.
Yeah, but more often than not those Brits’ wins repeat at the Oscar.
Hopkins will win.
I challenge you to make a list and compare. I doubt that it’s “more often than not”.
You are missing part of the point here. The major point should be… let’s take the times the Oscars didn’t agree with the SAG in the acting categories since 2001.
Sup Actress
1. 2018 – SAG: Blunt, BAFTA: Weisz, Oscar: King
2. 2008 – SAG: Winslet*
3. 2007 – SAG: Dee, BAFTA and Oscar: Swinton
4. 2001 – SAG: Mirren*
Sup Actor
1. 2015 – SAG: Elba, BAFTA and Oscar: Rylance
2. 2012 – SAG: Lee Jones, BAFTA and Oscar: Waltz
3. 2006 – SAG: Murphy, BAFTA and Oscar: Arkin
4. 2005 – SAG: Giamatti, BAFTA: Gyllenhaal, Oscar: Clooney
5. 2002 – SAG: Walken, BAFTA: Walken, Oscar: Cooper
6. 2001 – SAG: McKellen, BAFTA and Oscar: Broadbent (for different films)
Actor
1. 2016 – SAG: Washington, BAFTA and Oscar: Affleck
2. 2003 – SAG: Depp, BAFTA: Murray, Oscar: Penn
3. 2002 – SAG: Day-Lewis, BAFTA: Day-Lewis, Oscar: Brody
4. 2001 – SAG: Crowe, BAFTA: Crowe, Oscar: Washington
Actress
1. 2018 – SAG: Close – BAFTA and Oscar: Colman
2. 2011 – SAG: Davis – BAFTA and Oscar: Streep
3. 2008 – SAG: Streep* – BAFTA and Oscar: Winslet
4. 2007 – SAG: Christie – BAFTA and Oscar: Cotilard
5. 2002 – SAG: Zellweger – BAFTA and Oscar: Kidman
16 CASES
Let’s exclude the two (*) because of placement issues… even though the BAFTAs were the only other group to place Winslet in Lead for the The Reader.
10 CASES
In Lead Actress, 100% of the cases.
No, the point, which was I who made it, is about BAFTA coming in changing the name of a frontrunner, in this case it’s Chadwick Boseman, who swept over this side of the Atlantic (GG, BFCA and SAG).
In the past, whenever BAFTA does this to a frontrunner, more often than not, it doesn’t go their way.
OK. It’s tight, though. If I didn’t make any mistake, we had 31 cases of disagreements between SAG and BAFTA. In the cases of disagreement, we have SAG 14 x 12 BAFTA. It’s very tight. Only Day-Lewis, Russell Crowe and Christopher Walken lost the Oscars after winning both BAFTA and SAG this century. Only four times neither of the SAG and BAFTA winner won the Oscars this century. When you win one but not the other, though, your chances fall more to the 50/50 range, which indeed is something we can make a big deal of.
Let’s start by… times the BAFTA and SAG disagreed since 2001
Actor
1. 2001 (Neither)
2. 2002 (Neither)
3. 2003 (Neither)
4. 2008 (SAG)
5. 2009 (SAG)
6. 2013 (SAG)
7. 2016 (BAFTA)
Actress
1. 2001 (SAG)
2. 2002 (BAFTA)
3. 2007 (BAFTA)
4. 2008 (BAFTA)
5. 2009 (SAG)
6. 2011 (BAFTA)
7. 2012 (SAG)
8. 2018 (BAFTA)
Sup Actor
1. 2003 (SAG)
2. 2004 (SAG)
3. 2005 (Neither)
4. 2006 (BAFTA)
5. 2012 (BAFTA)
6. 2013 (SAG)
7. 2015 (BAFTA)
8. 2016 (SAG)
Sup Actress
1. 2001 (BAFTA)
2. 2005 (SAG)
3. 2007 (BAFTA)
4. 2008 (BAFTA)
5. 2010 (SAG)
6. 2013 (SAG)
7. 2015 (SAG)
8. 2018 (Neither)
You’re only looking at SAG vs BAFTA disagreement. That’s not the full story here. With Hopkins, BAFTA disagrees with all three GG, BFCA and SAG. The times that BAFTA disagreed w/ SAG and got it right, those winners also won at GG and/or BFCA. It has never happened when they only won BAFTA and then Oscar agreed.
In the battle between SAG vs. BAFTA, GG is normally the tiebreaker. This year GG is on the side of SAG.
Good point. All instances (in all 4 acting categories) where one person won BAFTA and another won SAG+GG+BFCA, and who prevailed at the Oscars (I’m emphasizing the cutoff point between the previous voting system and the one in place since 2013 at BAFTA):
2019: Colman (BAFTA+GG, true) > Close (SAG+GG+BFCA/tied, but not with Colman)
***
2010: Bullock (SAG+GG+BFCA) > Mulligan (BAFTA)
2008: Cotillard (BAFTA+GG, again) > Christie (SAG+GG+BFCA)
2005: Swank (SAG+GG+BFCA) > Staunton (BAFTA)
2004: Theron (SAG+GG+BFCA) > Johansson (BAFTA)
(I won’t include McConaughey as his movie wasn’t seen, so he didn’t lose an actual vote at BAFTA.)
***
2010: Bridges (SAG+GG+BFCA) > Firth (BAFTA)
1998: Nicholson (SAG+GG+BFCA) > Carlyle (BAFTA)
–
***
2011: Leo (SAG+GG+BFCA) > Carter (BAFTA)
2000: Jolie (SAG+GG+BFCA) > Smith (BAFTA)
(Likewise, not including the Jared Leto case, for the same reason.)
***
2011: Bale (SAG+GG+BFCA) > Rush (BAFTA)
So, the only caveat would be that, while pre-2013 it’s not even close, we actually have zero evidence since the new system (which has made a massive difference to BAFTA winner trends in a lot of races) has been in place that SAG+GG+BFCA trumps BAFTA (although of course it makes sense that it would, most of the time) and we in fact have some evidence it might not be as clear. (It depends how likely we think Colman would have been to beat Close at the Globes had The Favourite also been placed in drama. I don’t think it’s clear which of the two would have won at all. If it was, Colman would have swept the season. So, that’s, at the very least, a partial precedent for BAFTA alone beating those three, whereas there is none in this new BAFTA era for the opposite – yet.) But, again, I agree with your point in principle: most likely, the treble is still superior. What’s not clear anymore is by what margin.
Early and throughout the 2018 season, the talk was whether Glenn Close would defeat Lady Gaga in BA race. That verdict was clearer: it’s Close. People got distracted by that competition and not paying attention to Colman’s chances.
Yup – they thought the job was done, so to speak. 🙂 Even I thought Close would somehow win (even as late as just before the Oscars), despite Colman being my stats-based prediction…
Love this.
Hopkins and Firth also gave the best performances. So whilst the Brit factor might have tipped the scales, it also happened to be the right choice. Bridges was more unbeatable than Boseman, a classic case of the right moment and film for an overdue frontrunner. Hopkins could potentially be crowned as the greatest living actor, a narrative that might give him that extra push.
Just on a year like 2012, Lawrence effectively had that sewn up by the night. Riva wasn’t a serious threat come Oscar night. It was a weird Actress race with a few snubs along the way, but Lawrence had it in the bag, they wanted to celebrate her at that point in time, and she would also represent the film.
And even though Crazy Heart was not a Best Picture nominee, it was way ahead of A Single Man in terms of industry support. The Father obviously has more industry-wide support than Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
1987 was the first year I followed an Oscar season. everyone knew Cher was expected to win, especially because she was the GG winner. it was no surprise at all.
Absolutely…the same thing happen in 1988…. everybody knew that Jodie Foster would win, her narrative was too strong to overcome even if Strepp, Close and Weaver were far better in A Cry In The Dark, Dangerous Liaisons and Gorillas In The Mist respectively.
Key difference is that Brody was not the talked about front runner all season; mulligan has been. It’s not comparable. She’s got a narrative of never having won, in a strong contender, in an important #MeToo film and perhaps some BAFTA sympathy vote.
Don’t worry I’m fully prepared for her to lose.
I agree it’s far from the same but the “important” narrative is EXACTLY what boosted The Pianist in the finish line in 2003 as we got closer to War on Iraq. There was a push against Chicago due to its perceived “non-importance” that almost cost its Best Picture win and that carried the anti-Chicago pick (The Pianist) to three surprising wins.
I remember that–IIRC, Ted Casablancas claimed that the Best Picture momentum had entirely turned late in the voting, and, had voting gone on for even 1 or 2 more days, The Pianist probably would have snagged Best Picture as well. Also, re Brody: while he wasn’t the front runner, literally every other nominee had already won at least 1 Oscar, and Nicholson came out and said that he’d voted for Brody, which I suspect influenced a lot of people. Combine that with Brody giving one of those “performances of a lifetime”–which, I’ve noticed, seem to be good at winning (I’m thinking of F. Murray Abraham and Ben Kingsley, who also played real-life figures), and there you are. (I say “performance of a lifetime”–which is really only obvious in retrospect for anyone–because I suspect it’s true in his case, although he could always surprise us.)
I think i speak on behalf of most of us when i say Mulligan’s performance was by FAR the most ambitious,perplexing multi layered multi- faceted performance by ANY Actress in YEARS at the very least and a role no less to fulfill the character that represents agrieved women globally..through her performance on most urgent desperate issue that need to be resolved more than ever..and other huge thing for her that justifies her winning? the character her performance HAD to be believable enough to feel like it COULD really HAPPEN and mark my words in parts of the world..it does..well we dont know nature of sex crimes that go unreported do we? sooo..Frankly..
1. Viola Davis has won twice before…you can make compelling argument based on this..that her prior performances were even more ACccomplished when she won her other 2 oscars..
2. For crying out loud can the Academy get over the ‘most deglamorized woman’ role? forget the halfway there supposed ‘frontline; role in nobody’s land by Mcdormand who won ehr share of oscars too!
3. JUST BECAUSE SOME PRECEDENTS SHOULD BE SMASHED SOMETIMES SOMETIMES!! DOES NOT JUSTIFY BREAKING EVERY COMBINATION PRECEDENT POSSIBLE..FOR SAKE OF IT WHY??
For fuk sake !! it not that complicated AMPAS the performance on merit the one that stands out is MULLIGAN’S? i strongly dispute this is the one of the strongest female lineups ever….dont agree Sasha…i think sometimes we tend to in this day and age gravitate to focus on last decade as comparison not the decades prior i think you mistaken there..it HUGE call to make suggest this is one of ther overall strongest lineups ever.
IF AMPAS ARE HELLBOUND ON SINKING LET ALONE SALVAGING THEIR dismal ever plunging credibility in our eyes…then Mulligan wont win..it simple as that.
I not convinced this is such a open race,..and just cos commentators say so does not mean that should not be challenged everyone..I remember a time when the Academy -and Guilds for that matter disregarded press speculation and white noise..now more than every alarmingly, the oscars are the media’s plaything not AMPAS voters own independent thought it clouded by media white noise..that the ONLY reason Davis or McDormand will win..NOT because they trully are more powerful, persuasvie, provocative or ambitious an accomplishment than that of Ms. Mulligans.
I think we can see..esp if AMPAS ignore the totally out of touch, shallow pretentious golden globe precursor…that ultimately, Promising Young Woman has to win SOMETHING AT OSCARS if there be boilover for original screenplay,.,then that leaves actress..can you imagine a film that important in reflecting a most urgent issue of our time on behalf of women wronged by reckless misogynist men…or known someone who been abused by some men.. the public response and even within some in hollywood if PRomising Young Woman does not win 1 award? it a big deal.. and it only proves how chaotic and conflicted and extent the Guilds and AMPAS incresingly misread the true nature of issues film going public and traidtional industry base want AMPAS to engage in frankly..this path they going on is so off the mark..it sad..
I say this too: AMPAS can set some precedents break old ones..but just cos they do in 1 SINGLE OSCAR YEAR DOES NOT MEAN THAT THEY NEED TO SMASH EVERY PRECEDENT cos as far as lot of us are concerned it just reinforces what we strongly suspect of AMPAS dark motivations and delusions- merit does NOT matter..only changing ALL precedents to appease social media warriors and racial- cultural ideaology over common sense..
Most us know Mulligan deserves to win i not liking this speculation Sasha i think you really should conisder reassessing encouraging this online speak..i not expecting Mulligan to win now and for that reason i predict hope biggest message is sent in protest to AMPAS i will NOT be and i sure even smaller number online here to the farce and debacle and disgrace that supposed ly is the so- called- Academy no they not worthy of the title the way they going.
Frankly, Not withstanding Green Book and King Speech, most people here have been less than convinced most of other oscar winners between then have been outright standout best picture of year..but 2 that come close..are Spotlight and Parasite..but in both those years lot of people not convinced given sheer quality of contenders they were standout easily best film of year..not even the film industry coudl have that consensus..well.. ‘consensus’ by its very function has been manipulated and distorted to reflect the inner political cross warfare between the pro- social media miulitia that clearly infiltrated AMPAS thinking and the traditional guard that have grievances and they been rigthfully aired clearly by more moderate hollywood traditional commentators..note NOT the excess one eyed conservative commentators have concerns bout their views ..
But sincer when did AMPAS even in modern times become a fukin moutchpeace for media rumour?
Hi Aaron, sorry to correct you but Viola Davis has only won once before.
Davis only won once. Again, get a fact checker and an editor
hey! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4375206c0fe82cc439b57ceae93d91977eefff6592e2a4a4be5ecf8ce1afeda3.gif
Your gif game is strong
Strangers on a Train?
Yes!
Hitchcock flirting with conflicted homoerotic relationships again.
Well, actually Mulligan doesn’t deserve to win. Kirby, McDormand and Day are much better so hopefully one of them wins.
Praying for Kirby.
Good thing we have you to settle that question for us once and for all… 🙂
err… i thought you believed seriously Mulligan is easily most deserved favourite to win mate no? i confused by your response…to this ‘someone’ or you being sarcastic making them think you agree with them..this should not be NOT be as open actress race…it well truly past time with PRomising Young Woman all but being completely undermined despite winning as many important guild precursors as Nobodysland…that oscar recognizes through such a performance as Mulligans the importance of that performance to convey a gigantic most vital societal problem that impacted women in no small way…it be shocking missed opportunity for oscar to give oscar to actress who performance speaks to generations of women who been victim or known somoene close to them who been victim of unreported sex crimes..it time for the ACADEMY to grow up..and go for most confronting, necessary and defining performance for ALL women..NOT just flip the race card..wh9ich i fear is what they doing this year..mistakenly…everyone knows thankfully from past oscat winners rightfully black actors and actresses are really been getting their due for number of years now..there no need for AMPAS to re hash an old battle..at expense of single most important performance on behalf of ALL women wronged by evil men and ;lacklustre legal system that to this day fails to protect the victim time and time again…time to elevate this matter with absolute urgency above all other actress contenders or ampas will fuk up their opportuntiy further..course i dont expect AMPAS TO LISTEN to me i like to see poll who DESERVES TO WIN not who AMPAS will gift it to..whoi we think AMPAS will go for- who does not deserve to win ey?
Of course I was being sarcastic. 🙂 I want Mulligan to win more than I want anything this Oscar season (even more than I want to get the BP prediction right) and I’m again beginning to think she’s the most likely of the five to get it done…
for record i so full of admiration of your insights..taking liking to you and your classy attitude (yea i can get a bit crass longer AMPAS disappoint me sigh…the daily grind or yearly rather for all of us we should be immunve to disappointment with best pic outcomes by now ey? our problem is? we care too much mate what we hope prefer AMPAS to be as opposed to what it become ey?) even IF you did not think Mulligan deserves and should win…see what i mean?
By by, is this Mulligan first big time hollywood cinema role? i admit i not heard of her until i saw this amazing movie that made it big time in oscars (until behind the scenes i really believe there been a campaign to undermine controversial in favour of ‘safe’ options.. i wany yo reassure you all my issue with Nomadland..? is that i just think competiion and unporedictability for best pic deserves to take place this year despite the sidelining of Greyhound, Tenet, New of the World you know? but that not to sayu Nomadland issues not relevant to our times…it just cinematically AMPAS should be aiming for thos efilms that truly capture the AMPAS spirit..i just not been convinced respectfully Nomadland deserves to be easy outright fav for best pic. I miss the days oscar went for best pic on films that really packed emotional punch and held nothing back…
Thanks! 🙂 I like you too, as you know.
I guess Mulligan’s biggest roles so far were (not An Education, that was a biggish Oscar player but not really a big movie) Drive, maybe, Mudbound and The Great Gatsby. Nothing huge, indeed.
Explain to me how any of those roles are more important to elevate an issue more urgent than that of the landmark first every performance in our time that speaks to OUR generation that reflects a confronting but necessary issue of how a woman deals with injustice at the hand of sex crime perpetrators by a system that not accountable to protect the victim all too often ? none i mean NONE of the other performances are as profound in actress or powerful , commanding and challenging or of calibre of Mulligan’s ity time for oscar to stop pretending to fight the race war and go for performance that BOTH important and defines our times through performance that elevates need be aware of implications of unreported sex crimes against women..there not been a performance done at level Mulligan has..and most of us unlike you hope she wins
GG singlehandedly derailed Carey’s campaign. Less than 100 foreign journalists. I hate you guys.
yes proof positive of the optics of the race; perception. At least everyone else has been in the same boat. Davis missed a nod at SAG; Carey missed nom at BAFTA; Day missed SAG and BAFTA, and McDormand won BAFTA. Kirby – nothing, but she and Frances are still the only contenders who have been nominated at each turn.
Carey should have been out in front all along with that kick ass performance.
Well, evidently, not that kick ass to the public b/c she lost twice. But she has another day to live.
What’s it got to do with the public?
I meant voting public.
For the record, Carey Mulligan won a BAFTA … for ”An Education” in 2010.
But she lost Best Actress at the Oscars to Sandra Bullock in ”The Blind Side.”
Very different race
Public don’t vote for SAG or GG
Oh really? Do tell.
Oh yes, hate you best actress BAFTA jury too.
A BAFTA win could also have changed the race for Carey leading into Oscar voting
Globes could reward whoever they wanted. 🙂
And Day is better than Mulligan so good choice! 🙂
Charlize Theron for Monster is also a solo-Best Actress win.
Good stuff… Yup, everybody has gigantic stats working against them. In this instance, I guess one goes with either SAG or a critical favorite that hasn’t won much in the TV phase, if anything. That’s how it tends to go. And that’s either Davis or Mulligan. That’s how I see it. Oh, and forget Day’s snubs – even just her winning with Globe and nothing else (not BAFTA – she wasn’t even shortlisted, so she doesn’t have the juries excuse, and I understand her movie was shortlisted in some categories -, not SAG, not Critics Choice) is unprecedented on its own!…
Also:
I apologize in advance for posting this in as many different places as possible, for obvious reasons! It’s easy to skip over, anyway, once voted.
Hey, guys! It’s that time again… 🙂 On the eve of the opening of Oscar voting this year, all who have seen each of the eight Best Picture nominees at the Oscars this year (or, at the very least, all but Mank – which, unfortunately, clearly has no shot at winning either here or at the Oscars – and maybe Judas and the Black Messiah – which probably also hasn’t got much of a chance, although this is less clear) are warmly invited to post their ranked ballots (personal order of preference, of course, not winning chances) in reply to this comment (to facilitate tabulation at the end), for the 10th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation I will have run – with many thanks, of course!…
***
I plan on seeing both The Father & Judas and the Black Messiah in time to vote for this myself, for a change. (Or at least the former – time is genuinely a consideration for me this year, there’s a lot going on precisely in these final few weeks before the Oscars. I couldn’t quite manage to see everything of relevance in time the last two years – in those cases, due to some things not quite being out/available in my part of the world yet -, hence I didn’t get to vote. It will be nice to get to do that again.) I’m probably going to keep voting open until Monday or Tuesday, which coincidentally is roughly equivalent to the Oscar voting period. I usually do this right after BAFTA but, even so, this has never quite happened before. Anyway, my current ranking is:
1. Promising Young Woman
2. Nomadland
3. Mank
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Sound of Metal
6. Minari
The most interesting thing about this simulation, as past contributors will remember, is that there is now a running seven-year streak (arguably eight, as Silver Linings Playbook didn’t necessarily do worse than Argo’s other challengers in 2013 at the Oscars) of the likely runner-up for Best Picture at the Oscars finishing either in second or virtually tied for second place in this as well. (Details below. As can be seen, the Oscar-winner has come in first before, three times. But never in second – 0/9…) The beginning of this streak coincides with the year I started holding these simulations at both Awards Daily and on the old IMDb Message Boards. (The first two years I only collected votes at IMDb.) Obviously, this year looks like the most locked-in one (in Best Picture) since at least the Argo year. Personally, I don’t quite consider either that or Nomadland locks – like The Artist or The King’s Speech, for example -, but both were mighty close, despite their two respective stats-relevant misses (Argo, being snubbed for directing, Nomadland, not getting either the ensemble mention or at least two acting nominations at SAG, a tally which only Braveheart could not match or trump, out of all of the SAG era Oscar Best Picture winners). So, I would say it’s still not 100% clear that Nomadland will win (and we’ve certainly been given plenty of reasons to almost always doubt the front-runner the last 6-7 years) and it might help to know which movie is not likely to upset it (as per this stat about coming in second place in this simulation), plus it’s always nice to get a clearer picture about what you guys all think are the best of the nominees. 🙂
The history:
2011 The Social Network —– details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty ——— 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ————————– 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ——————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight —————— 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ——— 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name *
2019 The Favourite ————- 45-30 over Roma
2020 Parasite ——————- 46-14 over The Irishman *
* Three Billboards was tied with Call Me By Your Name at the moment when one had to be eliminated in third place (on tiebreaks). 1917 was three votes behind The Irishman when Parasite reached 50%+1 of the votes, but was ranked ahead of The Irishman on just as many ballots as not (30-30), so it, too, was extremely close to coming in second place. (Only Parasite’s utter domination – the most crushing win ever seen in one of these -, which took away most of the ballots, probably prevented it from at least tying for second.)
Hello! Long-time lurker, first-time poster here. And by long-time, I mean ever since 2011 when I discovered this site. I think this year has been the most closely I’ve followed the race since that heartbreaking first year–though I have watched the Oscars every year since 1998, when I had a childhood crush on Leonardo DiCaprio and was confused as to why he wasn’t nominated for Best Actor. When he finally won, I wished he hadn’t. Hahaha.
I’ve tried watching at least 80% of all the nominees in all categories (except documentaries, animation, and shorts) for years. My ranking for Picture is:
1. Promising Young Woman
2. Nomadland (greater than the sum of its parts, based on my picks for the other categories)
3. The Father (liked this much, much more than I thought I would but Nomadland’s scope placed that film higher)
4. Mank
5. Sound of Metal
6. Minari
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7
And just because I’m unusually social tonight, I’m sharing my rankings in the other categories for which I’ve seen at least 80% of the nominees. I’m still trying to make time for Another Round, News of the World, and Hillbilly Elegy.
Director
1. Fennell
2. Fincher
3. Zhao
4. Chung
Actress (I doubt I’ll finish Pieces of a Woman. It sounds way too depressing for me)
1. Mulligan (please, please, please)
2. McDormand
3. Day (though it took me three nights to finish her movie. Terrible)
4. Davis
Actor
1. Hopkins
2. Ahmed
3. Yeun
4. Oldman
5. Boseman (RIP but I hate his near-sweep and would’ve wanted to see the men of Judas or at least Delroy Lindo here)
Supporting Actress
1. Colman
2. Everyone else is tied and I haven’t seen Elegy
Supporting Actor (my favorite category for no real logical reason, despite the category fraud)
1. Stanfield
2. Kaluuya
3. Raci (should have been winning if the first two were rightly put in lead)
4. Odom Jr. (liked his movie more than I thought I would)
5. SBC
Original Screenplay
1. PYW
2. Sound of Metal
3. Minari
4. Judas
5. Trial
Adapted
1. The Father
2. Nomadland
3. Borat
4. Miami
Cinematography
1. Mank
2. Nomadland
3. Judas
4. Trial
Editing
1. The Father
2. Sound of Metal
3. PYW
4. Nomadland
5. Trial
Score and Song – to be honest, these don’t stick too much for me so I don’t really have an opinion… though I would love for Husavik to win Song because it was the most entertaining movie.
Question for all the stat whizzes: Do you keep track of stats just in Excel or has anyone tried to do a regression analysis? Sorry if this has been asked somewhere already.
1998 is right around when I saw my first Oscar ceremony too, I think. 🙂 Possibly a few years earlier, but I’m sure I saw the ceremony when Titanic won.
We have very similar rankings – the way we rank Judas (which I’ve since seen and have in third) is the main difference in picture. We’re more or less on the same page in the other categories (including Husavik). I guess all that’s left to say on that is: go ProYo! 🙂
“Do you keep track of stats just in Excel or has anyone tried to do a regression analysis?”
Well, Marshall Flores has, for sure! (Statsgasm.) And I think there are other sites that do it, too… Not sure if any of our fine AD posters have done it. I do Excel because I don’t quite have the mathematical background to do the other thing (I was far too lazy in school, so I mostly only know the basics) plus it seems unnecessary to me. And I think I’ve gotten better results than Statsgasm this way, even on my stats-only predictions. Definitely above the line, and most definitely in picture. In techs, I might be pipped. 🙂
If Carey wins, I THINK I could live with my bottom choices winning in the other categories. Haha. One of those looks inevitable anyway, so I’ve already accepted disappointment.
I’ll check out Statgasm, thanks! I haven’t done a regression in years so I was just curious.
🙂 Oh, I too would sacrifice A LOT of other outcomes for Carey to win!…
Jessica Lange and George Clooney have won only with the Globe so Andra Day wouldn’t be the first.
And if Marcia Gay Harden could have won twenty years ago having NOTHING (even nominations from Globes, SAG, BAFTA and Critics’ Choice) than why not Day?
That being said, everybody can win. Yes, even Kirby, if she will be Marcia Gay Harden or “Ex Machina” of this year.
Of course, I know. But I probably needn’t tell you just how much better all of their stats were than Day’s. (Even Harden’s, I would say. It’s more important to show strength in various places than to win the Globe and do basically nothing else all season prior to the Oscars.) But I agree anybody can win, even so, just because the favorites are SO vulnerable… And there is the Coburn precedent, which is a pretty good one for Day.
Haven’t watched Andra Day, but the other 4 would be respectable winner.
Hopkins for me is the best actor this year, but Chadwick is not far behind.
He’s behind Riz too whether you put Riz before Hopkins or behind him Boseman isn’t #1 or #2 performance-wise. He’s winning though so it doesn’t matter but the other 2 were sublime in actual good movies, which overacting nightmare Ma’s isn’t.
I’m still inclined to think Boseman’s getting the Oscar–in any other year, it would be Hopkins or Ahmad, but Boseman has the best narrative of the year. He made a string of good movies with terrific performances on his part over the course of the 1910s, and not only played several real-life characters (Jackie Robinson, James Brown, Thurgood Marshall), but went on to create an iconic character in T’Challa, the Black Panther. Do not underestimate the Black Panther factor, folks–not only is that character an iconic superhero, esp. to POC, and incredibly loved by millions upon millions of fans, but he’s also the missing link in some ways between the Oscars and the Marvel Cinematic Universe–yes, they’ve gotten technical nominations over the years, and let’s not forget that Black Panther was the first superhero movie to get a Best Picture nomination, but there have been a number of truly iconic performances coming out of those films (starting with RDJ as Iron Man) that never got the attention from the Academy that they should have, and even though Boseman wasn’t nominated for Best Actor himself, his film definitely dragged “comic book movies” out of their pigeonhole and into the spotlight at the Oscars, winning for Costume Design, Production Design, and Music. Finally, he did so much of his amazing work, starting with Marshall and right through Black Panther and the other Marvel films to Ma Rainey’s, 7 films in total, while fighting and eventually dying of cancer, and hardly anyone knew about that part until he passed. (OK, I would imagine there were people involved in the productions who knew, but the public at large certainly didn’t, and I suspect most people in the business didn’t know either.) He was busting his ass while trying to kick cancer’s butt, and all while creating an incredibly iconic and greatly-loved character, and based on the reaction of people in the business, he seems to have been genuinely liked and loved by a hell of a lot of people there as well as the public at large. Now he’s gone, and this is the only chance they’ll ever have to give him any kind of award for all of his hard work, not just as Levee, but as Black Panther, and also as his other real-life characters to boot, and I just don’t see the voters passing up on that opportunity, in the same way that it all went down for Heath Ledger. Nobody else was going to win that year, because it was Heath’s only chance, and I do think it’s going to work out the same way this year. If Chadwick was still alive and well, it would be a different story…but, well, he’s not, damn it. I’m sure he’d rather still be around than win an Oscar, and so would Heath and Peter Finch, but I’d like to think the latter two knew they won, and it definitely made the people who loved them feel better, so I’d bet money on it happening again. After all, if Elizabeth Taylor could win for almost dying (IIRC, even she joked about it down the road), well…
(And now it’s 4:23 am, and I really ought to get my sorry butt off to bed, but such is life. Hope this makes sense…)
How i miss the 1970’s and especially 1977 where arguably two actresses in comedies were the frontrunners. Marsha Mason won the Globe for The Goodbye Girl and her on screen partner ended up with the Oscar. Diane Keaton of course was the undeniable ‘Annie Hall’. I wish that had been a tie. Rare for comedy to be so front and centre.
I think the last time we reached the Oscars with two lead in comedies with a shot at winning was in 2004 with Depp and Murray… but the winner was drama in the end.
Even races like 1987 and 1990 in lead actress between horror/thriller and comedy don’t exist anymore.
The Favourite is a comedy.
Yep… but that’s not the point here. Silver Linings Playbook is even more of a comedy.
The point is which races do you remember that we entered Oscar night with multiple comedy performances contending for the win.