Drama – Trial of the Chicago 7
Musical/Comedy – Palm Springs
Animated Feature – Soul
Drama – Non-Commercial – Ozark
Drama Series -Commercial – Better Call Saul
Comedy Series Television non-Commercial – Ted Lasso
Comedy Series Commercial – Schitt’s Creek Happy Ending
Documentary – My Octopus Teacher
Documentary non-theatrical – The Last Dance
Animated non-theatrical – Rick and Morty
Variety Talk Show – American Utopia
Edited Limited Series – The Queen’s Gambit
Unscripted Series winner – Cheer God Blessed Texas Unscripted
Wait, Nomadland was edited? I thought they just ran out of film.
With the SAG win and now ACE, only Chicago 7 stands a chance of upsetting Nomadland. It is an actors film with a period in history that older members of the Academy lived through. De je vu of how its subject of insurrection is relevant to current day.
Fun fact: The Pride of the Yankees is the only best picture nominee ever to have won only film editing at the Oscars (overall there are 8 cases).
so, that stat says basically that if Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Sound of Metal, Promising Young Woman or The Father, win Editing, they will take at least a 2nd win.
Nomadland: is taking Director for sure, and likely Picture, almost locked it seems. Cinematography as well. If Nomadland wins Editing, I think we have the locked Best Picture winner. Director+Adapted+Editing+Cinematography – then Picture?
Sound of Metal: is taking Sound… I doubt it would go further than that, unless we see a surprise at Original and/or Actor, then it could be a nailbitter at Picture.
The other 3 are more interesting because they haven’t a locked win at all…
Promising Young Woman seems likely to win Actress and Original Screenplay, but not locked. Winning Editing may confirm at least one of those wins, or even both. Which could lead to a possible upset at Picture, as well, as Actress+Original+Editing seem a strong combo versus Director+Adapted+Cinematography?
The Trial of the Chicago 7 seems destined to maybe win Original Screenplay but has lost a lot of steam, winning Editing would translate in a likely Original Screenplay win, which as a combo could launch it to Best Picture.
The Father hasn’t anything locked, if it wins Editing, it may indicate an upset at Actor and/or Adapted.
Love that stat.
Seems like Bafta is more accurate than ace lately. I may stick with SoM. But at least trial does have a chance to win something now.
How the hell did PYW lose here anyway?
The only explanation I can come up with is editors not happy it was in the comedy category?
Really, this season is the worst
All we need is for Mulligan & Fennell to both lose on Oscar night & this season will be a true dumpster fire
Unfortunately that could happen. But Mulligan’s performance will be talked about for years like Rosamund Pike in ‘Gone Girl’ no matter what happens on Sunday.
No one got broke, to paraphrase one of the most famous opinions ever, underestimating the intelligence of the American Cinema Editors when it comes to comedy commercial TV. They were like everybody else in that kind of category, lemmings, pure and true. Complete conformity. No room for dissent. Lockstepping to honor the show that had the inferior run, who had the inferior final season and who had the inferior series finale. One time after the other, the infernal, successful run of Schitt’s Creek was the emphatic validation of style over substance. Of bombast over subtlety, of cruising on one’s reputation for a generation and change over consistent excellence but without the Netflix Crutch to help them.
Wasn’t just the Eddies; everybody went all-in worshipping at the altar of the Levys and O’Hara. Taylor Swift had these idiots pegged from minute one when she sang This Is Why We Can’t Have Nice Things. Quality TV lost again this afternoon. One more reason to hate Netflix and the unfair advantage they supply to marginal, niche shows like Schitt’s.
“So this is how it is…truth and fiction are pretty much interchangeable. There is neither a Santa Claus, nor an Easter Bunny, and there no angels watching over us. Things just happen for no reason, and nothing makes any sense.”
Here are the the editing award winners from the last 20 years, including today’s win. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4ced57f07e9d7e914f4b903280333f75350b871032826eefffac89c176bbe76b.png
Love this – will save a lot of time, in the long run. Thank you!
So I guess we’re to assume Traffic would have won the Critics Choice for Editing, had it been awarded back then… 🙂
Two questions for you. (1) Do you think Nomadland will win Best Picture this season? I have noticed in the SAG and PGA era, we haven’t seen a single film win Best Picture without at least 2 major guild wins — PGA, DGA, SAG (5 awards), WGA, ACE. This stat tells me it’s between Nomadland and Chicago 7. (2) What does your stats say about Best Actress? I am constantly bouncing back and forth here. Before the SAG, I was thinking Mulligan. Now after the SAG and BAFTA, I am torn between Davis and Day.
(1) Yes, sir. 🙂 Of the other recent favorites and so-called favorites, the only one I genuinely thought would win – I was literally 50-50 on The Shape of Water vs. Three Billboards, but maybe I went with the latter – that didn’t was La La Land. I knew Moonlight was a major threat but I didn’t realize at the time the relative importance of some stats compared to others. (And, thus, just how big a threat it was.) And yes, it certainly looks like it’s Trial that is challenging. But it’s a very weak challenger and I’ve not believed that one would win for a while now. (It’s plagued by so many non-industry stats, in addition to the already never-beaten industry ones – the combination of no directing nomination and losing both the PGA and WGA. Even just losing PGA, DGA and WGA, it’s never led to a BP win, ever.) I could be wrong, of course.
(2) Davis is very likely the stats favorite, although it’s obviously nowhere near clear-enough. The lack of precedents for winners without either SAG or Globe wins in the category seems like the most important stat, though. It seems stronger to me than the winning-both-leads-without-a-BP-nomination, which is also on 100% but somewhat shakier logically, I think. (Also, I think Boseman could easily actually lose to Hopkins. He probably won’t, but there’s a serious chance. I think the vote will be close, there are signs of this. And then Davis would be “free” to win, according to that stat.) Now, do I think Davis will win?! I don’t know… I have no strong feelings here. I’m of the same opinion as the stats, anyway, that it’s Davis or Mulligan. Day’s stats are complete s**t. If she wins, she’ll be the most anti-stats winner since at least Coburn, almost 25 years ago. Those things can happen every few years, when the race is THIS disjointed, but they still almost never do, if you pick a specific category and a specific complete stats upset. Which is what whoever has Day is doing at the moment.
(1) If Chicago 7 won the WGA over Promising, I would have said Chicago 7 to win Best Picture. It would have won 3 major guilds — SAGE, WGA, and ACE. That would trump Nomadland’s PGA and DGA wins. However, with only ACE and SAGE wins, it’s hard for me to predict it here. Nomadland feels like the best choice here.
(2) Yeah, I figured we’re all scratching our heads on Best Actress. You can make a strong argument pro and against each of these. Kirby seems to be the odd ball out of the conversation. I think I’ll probably have my cat predict Best Actress.
If you were to choose between Davis or Mulligan, who would you pick, as the winner?
“I think I’ll probably have my cat predict Best Actress.”
:)) We have more than one cat, so I might have an edge there…
“If you were to choose between Davis or Mulligan, who would you pick, as the winner?”
To be honest, intuitively, I just don’t know. I guess it feels like ProYo winning both screenplay and acting seems a bit too much without a BP win (especially since it lost at SAG), so I suppose I have Davis as my gut prediction, as well, not just the stats pick. But it’s really close – this is just one argument…
Currently I have McDormand as the default — she’s won the most Best Actress trophies. However, there’s a stat I cannot erase from my memory — help me out here. The Best Actress Oscar winner won the Globe for the past 18 seasons. Berry in 2002, McDormand in 1997 and Sarandon in 1996 are the only recent counter examples. In the last 50 years, we have seen 44 of them winning the Oscar and the Globe. Berry, McDormand and Sarandon did win the SAG.
The main reason I don’t have McDormand, besides the fact she basically won BAFTA over Kirby alone, is that no Best Actress winner has ever lost, as a nominee, so many of the TV precursors (3/4, all but BAFTA). 2/4 losses is the most any winner in this category has done. Being snubbed is better than losing a final vote, especially if there’s a good “excuse”. In this sense alone, even Day seems more likely…
Think about it like this: how many of those Globe winners won 0/3 of the other big precursors, like Day? (Since all 4 of them, BFCA, GG, SAG, BAFTA, have co-existed.) I think it’s easy to guess the answer: none. Lange did it just before this, but there was no Critics Choice to win. And BAFTA was after the Oscars and voted on very, very differently.
How many Best Actress Oscar races had four different winners for Best Actress? None. We’re in a league of our own.
All of these nominees have major pluses and minuses.
Both you and I predicted Parasite to win Best Picture, right? Of course the stats showed that no foreign language film won Best Picture before.
“Both you and I predicted Parasite to win Best Picture, right? Of course
the stats showed that no foreign language film won Best Picture before.”
Irrelevant – precursor stats, which show the current situation, unless they can’t clarify, are the only ones that matter, not these stats about things that change over time. (Like the anti-foreign bias, the amount of foreign films they watch, the visibility of certain foreign films, etc.) Also, there have been somewhere between 10 and 20 foreign films nominated for BP (the only thing relevant, since Parasite was nominated), so the 0 wins they got just weren’t that far off total winning expectancy in a vacuum, with every nominee presumed to have equal chances each year. I probably calculated the exact difference last year. Can’t be more than 2-3, if that.
“How many Best Actress Oscar races had four different winners for Best Actress? None.”
1996 is basically that. 4 different winners. (Even if BAFTA was post-Oscars – we can’t know in what way that might have changed things.) BFCA winner also got Globe comedy, not a significant difference. SAG winner nabbed the Oscar that time. Anyway, these situations have happened before in other categories (Actor 2001, Supporting Actress 2008+2001, Supporting Actor 2000+1999+1998 and you can argue for 2002 but that’s not quite the same, as Broadbent won BAFTA+GG, even if for different movies), and the winner was NEVER a lone Globe winner (I’ve left out 4+ winner-races when the Globe winner had other wins). I’ve already mention numerous times the other dealbreaker stats that apply to ALL kinds of years (including those with the biggest upsets) that Day is facing, I’m definitely not doing it again. Like I said, Coburn is perhaps the only precedent she has, but not quite, as Affliction had more than one Oscar nomination and Coburn was SAG-nominated, even if that was about it. It also had WAY more critical support. Nick Nolte, for the same movie, was mentioned by 3/4 of NBR/NSFC/NYFCC/LAFCA, don’t remember which exactly.
By “irrelevant” I of course meant the foreign thing as a stat, in last year’s context. 🙂 Not the fact that we both predicted Parasite to win. Although, clearly, in the grand scheme of things, that’s also pretty irrelevant. :))
And I needn’t tell you just how many Globe-only winners have lost in this time span… 🙂 Even in drama, you have 3: Huppert in 2017, Huffman in 2006, Stone in 1996. In comedy, you have loads.
Trial is starting to move at the last minute. You are right. It cannot be completely ruled out for BP. PYW losing editing in comedy is a body blow in terms of its chances to win BP which I anyway doubt as it is divisive.
The Oscar for original Screenplay may be really important especially if The Father repeats bafta and wins adapted. If Nomadland loses adapted and trial wins both editing and Screenplay then its chances of BP are at least 50 percent?
An overreaction in my opinion. Chicago was always strong in editing, let’s not get too carried away
Which would be a shame because it’s not that good of a movie
I would say there’s almost no way it wins both editing and screenplay. One, maybe, and even that seems less likely than not to me.
BP winners happen because they have a legit shot to win either directing or screenplay or acting. Not in spite of it. I can’t think of an even somewhat recent counter-example. Trial looks like an underdog for editing, as well. Even Chicago won not just editing and whatnot, but also acting. Likewise, Gladiator. (Minus the editing win.) Just editing isn’t enough. Just screenplay isn’t even enough, except for the one time.
So ‘Trial’ needs to win both screenplay and editing and hope that ‘Nomadland’ loses Adapted Screenplay to have a chance.
..Having said what i did below in response to Sammy somewhat disturbing observations..it becoming increasingly clear that Nobody’s land will not follow through with the abilty to get a tech award– still a chance hopefully it wont win the cinematographers guild where compteition in this category is toughest of all the arts nominated oscar categories..
I also wrapped that Trial of the Chicago 7 has not only won the editors guild but amazingly the sound and sound effects editing in sound guild! i really thought they go with ‘the sound of metal’ (once again the ONLY nominees in awards seaSON SCREENING in oz down under are like a 1/5th if barely that of oscar contenders..
In fact, movies like The Little Things, The Courier, account for half the ‘oscar nominees; films in cinemas but low and beyhold NONE of them or HALF OF THE AWARDS WORTHY BUT OSCAR SNUBBED FILMS account for overall awards worthy / nominated films showing.. the only other 2 are Nobody’s land.and PRomising Young Woman.
I mean seriously? what makes me fuming more than the state of awards season as it contradicts violates and undermines it own guild precursors overall what wins best picture? is the fact that EVERY OSCAR SEASON ALL COUNTRIES IN MY PART OF THE WORLD DONT GET TO SEE THE KEY NOMINATED MOVIES MOST OF THEM UNTIL AFTER YOUR AWARDS SEASON I MEAN..WHAT THE FUK IS WRONG WITH DISTRIBUTORS IN THIS COUNTRY?
for fuk sake..it considerable part of reason why 95% of oscar seasons i can only go with my own research and you fellas and ladies expert opinions and Sasha’s too! and that means i dont properly get to have higher level of input in most of films that awards worthy year after year after year!
Crazy SUCKS BIG TIME!
Added my own vote (finally saw the last two):
I apologize in advance for posting this in as many different places as possible, for obvious reasons! It’s easy to skip over, anyway, once voted.
Hey, guys! It’s that time again… 🙂 On the eve of the opening of Oscar voting this year, all who have seen each of the eight Best Picture nominees at the Oscars this year (or, at the very least, all but Mank – which, unfortunately, clearly has no shot at winning either here or at the Oscars – and maybe Judas and the Black Messiah – which probably also hasn’t got much of a chance, although this is less clear) are warmly invited to post their ranked ballots (personal order of preference, of course, not winning chances) in reply to this comment (to facilitate tabulation at the end), for the 10th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation I will have run – with many thanks, of course!…
***
I’m probably going to keep voting open until Monday, which coincidentally is roughly equivalent to the Oscar voting period. I usually do this right after BAFTA but, even so, this has never quite happened before. [UPDATE: I saw the two I was missing – this is my vote:]
1. Promising Young Woman
2. Nomadland
3. Judas and the Black Messiah
4. The Father
5. Mank
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Sound of Metal
8. Minari
The most interesting thing about this simulation, as past contributors will remember, is that there is now a running seven-year streak (arguably eight, as Silver Linings Playbook didn’t necessarily do worse than Argo’s other challengers in 2013 at the Oscars) of the likely runner-up for Best Picture at the Oscars finishing either in second or virtually tied for second place in this as well. (Details below. As can be seen, the Oscar-winner has come in first before, three times. But never in second – 0/9…) The beginning of this streak coincides with the year I started holding these simulations at both Awards Daily and on the old IMDb Message Boards. (The first two years I only collected votes at IMDb.) Obviously, this year looks like the most locked-in one (in Best Picture) since at least the Argo year. Personally, I don’t quite consider either that or Nomadland locks – like The Artist or The King’s Speech, for example -, but both were mighty close, despite their two respective stats-relevant misses (Argo, being snubbed for directing, Nomadland, not getting either the ensemble mention or at least two acting nominations at SAG, a tally which only Braveheart could not match or trump, out of all of the SAG era Oscar Best Picture winners). So, I would say it’s still not 100% clear that Nomadland will win (and we’ve certainly been given plenty of reasons to almost always doubt the front-runner the last 6-7 years) and it might help to know which movie is not likely to upset it (as per this stat about coming in second place in this simulation), plus it’s always nice to get a clearer picture about what you guys all think are the best of the nominees. 🙂
The history:
2011 The Social Network —– details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty ——— 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ————————– 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ——————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight —————— 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ——— 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name *
2019 The Favourite ————- 45-30 over Roma
2020 Parasite ——————- 46-14 over The Irishman *
* Three Billboards was tied with Call Me By Your Name at the moment when one had to be eliminated in third place (on tiebreaks). 1917 was three votes behind The Irishman when Parasite reached 50%+1 of the votes, but was ranked ahead of The Irishman on just as many ballots as not (30-30), so it, too, was extremely close to coming in second place. (Only Parasite’s utter domination – the most crushing win ever seen in one of these -, which took away most of the ballots, probably prevented it from at least tying for second.)
1. Nomadland
2. Minari
3-5 are very interchangeable depending on which angle I look at them
3. Sound of Metal
4. The Father
5. Judas and the Black Messiah
6. Promising Young Woman
7 & 8 I don’t really care for
7. Mank
8. Trial of Chicago 7
In my case, it’s 2-5 that are hardest to rank – although Nomadland does maybe have a leg up there, with its score and insightful human story; I haven’t fretted about where exactly to rank that one as much as about the rest…
Nomadland
Minari
Sound of Metal
Promising Young Woman
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Trial of the Chicago Seven
Nomadland
Trial of the Chicago 7
The Father
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
Mank
Judas and the Black Messiah
Bon Chance!
Merci!… 🙂
I’ve finally seen all of the BP nominees!
1. Promising Young Woman
2. Sound of Metal
3. The Father
4. Minari
5. Nomadland
6. Judas and the Black Messiah
7. Mank
8. Trial of the Chicago 7
Trial is winning on Oscar night. BP, BOS, BFE
That would be pretty close to the route Crash took, but Crash had a BD nomination and I think it won WGA.
Yup. Those two things are precisely the key reasons Trial simply should not win this year. SAG+ACE (or either of the two) with nothing else (major guilds-wise) has never been enough to win BP. True, it’s still concerning, seeing it get surprise nominations (ASC) and wins (MPSE, ACE, sort of) in minor guilds, even if there’s no actual correlation between these things and winning BP. We’ve probably seen such things before from movies that lost the big Oscar. I should make a list some day…
Yeah, like I said, just not quite enough evidence to rule it out with full confidence. Annoying… 🙂 (Trial, for BP.)
Chicago 7 has 3 Guild wins this season, the most for any Best Picture nominee. We will see what happens with CAS and the ASC. But I agree: Chicago 7’s odds just got better here.
Why is editing so difficult to predict every year? Was 2012 the previous time there was a clear frontrunner in the category?
I’d say, these are great news. The bigger the competition, the best the year has been.
🙂 Good point…
I would argue 2015 (Fury Road won almost everything leading up to the Oscar) but still, I definitely agree with the point. Its just tough that BAFTA and ACE disagree here so often and neither is clearly better than the other
I’m sure there is a stat that says one is better going back substantially but just briefly looking at the last 10 years BAFTA and ACE have disagreed 7 times. ACE was right twice, BAFTA 3 times and the Oscar winner won neither twice. For the record the 3 years where they agreed that film did win Oscar… And critics choice doesn’t help things much at all. In every one of those 10 years where BAFTA and ACE disagreed CCA went for something different… Until this year when they tied which is very unhelpful!
I remember even in 2015 being uncertain about Mad Max: Fury Road because The Big Short won ACE as well and was a bigger best picture contender. Basically I felt that if The Big Short were to win best picture, it would have needed editing (which of course that year proved to be incorrect) so at least in one of the three best picture models for that year, that would have been the absolute frontrunner and it could have also won in the other models. But yes, in retrospect Mad Max: Fury Road was a mostly easy frontrunner
Ahhh yeah I see your point. I just generally ignore whoever wins comedy at ACE unless it’s a musical because only one film has won there and gone on to win the Oscar (Chicago)
mmm… Trial taking SAG Ensemble + Drama Eddie… gives it some minor steam to present a chance for a Best Picture upset (winning Original, Editing and Picture, maybe Supporting if finally Kaluuya and Stanfield split).
I am REALLY worried that Zhao might suffer a La La Land kind of effect, 4 personal nominations and AMPAS deciding it’s too much and the film has been already enough rewarded, and picking up something different. If that happens, I’d prefer Promising Young Woman or Mank, maybe The Father, I wouldn’t be much upset with Sound of Metal, but certainly not Chicago 7 or Minari.
My thoughts exactly. And don’t forget the MPSE win which was borderline shock by the way.
I have a “Green Book” / “Spotlight” vibe coming from Chicago 7
I got more of a Crash feeling
that’s the “unnamable” one, for me. Specially because there’s another “Crash” that is a damn masterpiece (David Cronenberg’s) and it is double pain for me to think that Haggis defeated Lee and Cronenberg wasn’t even nominated for anything back at his year for his absolutely breathtaking and heart-stopping “Crash”
The Trial of the Chicago 7 winning a sound award previously won by Bridge of Spies and The Social Network is not that shocking
TSN had a really good sound design, honestly. For example, the disco scene with Justin Timberlake almost shouting his lines to Eissenberg.
The Social Network has incredible sound design (and Bridge of Spies has some pretty solid sound work as well). However in terms of the way in which people think of “sound design”, it’s not really showy at all nor did it seem to showcase any extra support for the movie. And thus I don’t think a film like The Trial of the Chicago 7 winning this is a major upset, these kinds of wins happen. Even if it’s the sound editors’ guild, that doesn’t mean that the winner of Dialogue and ADR is going to be a sound editing winner type. Sound Effects and Foley is the category that’s more about showy sound in terms of how people think of sound in the Oscar categories and Greyhound winning that isn’t that surprising
Was watching Aaron Sorkin dissecting a scene for Vanity Fair (along SBC) and certainly makes me feel I’ve underrated a bit his achievement and skills as director (that doesn’t change my problems with the film, specially regarding on the tonal clash whenever Redmayne and Sacha Baron Cohen are forced to interact or how bland the film becomes at points when it was required to literally stand up to conformity and goes to underline some clichés as the people progressively standing up, something that was already satirized brilliantly in Frank Oz’s “In & Out” already 23 years ago!)
“In & Out” was that film fun and underrated, oh my. That ending with people standing up one by one, becoming cringe-worthy with the final punch to the guts with giving Kevin Kline’s character an Oscar, literally… it took me a couple of viewings to understand that it was not intended to be literal, but a critique to the blandness of Hollywood productions regarding edgy themes. Love that film, specially Joan Cusack, Debbie Reynolds and Tom Selleck… no surprise it was a Paul Rudnick screenplay.
I must admit that I’ve been trying to see In & Out for years but haven’t been able to find it.
In terms of Sorkin’s directing, I just think that Sorkin’s writing can have a structureless and tonally bizarre quality to it and he just can’t see it because he wrote those words. To me the only part that seems to make any sense is the Michael Keaton part because he’s got so much energy and he is fully leading that part of the movie that he actually manages to jump start the movie. His absence before and after that part underline the problem, no one is trying to put form to the movie, they seem to just be repeating Sorkin’s lines as something that is incredible without particular need for any other approaches or interpretation.
Frank Oz has to be one of the most underrated entertainers worldwide. Just think of his legacy: co-creating Sesame Street and The Muppets Show, as puppeteer, he’s both Miss Piggy and Yoda, and as director he has done some of the best comedies since the 80s. Bonus: his little role in Knives Out, quite a scene stealer as well. One of the MUST of the AMPAS for a future honorary Oscar.
If Trial takes Drama now, plus its yesterday’s surprise win at MPSE, means it’s almost a lock at the Oscars for Editing. Support from both ACE and MPSE is huge.
Schitts Creek is the most overrated over-praised show of this century. The ultimate triumph of style over substance. When history is written, people are gonna wonder what the F was all the fuss over this pithy show about.
We get it, you hate the world and everyone in it except for Kristen Bell
Funny, that’s exactly how I feel about The Good Place. :/
If Promising Young Woman loses Comedy, then it’s vanishing chance at a BP upset is gone methinks. Lack of support from Editors branch in a fairly week Comedy category is not a good sign at all.
Yep, that just happened.
Disappointing loss for Promising Young Woman.
Well, I guess PYM is out. Although, to be fair, its editing isn’t nearly as impressive as Palm Springs, or even that of Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.
Lack of support from Editors is an indication of low support below the line in general. I don’t think PYW has a chance at BP now, not even a slim one.
These are professional editors and Palm Springs was better edited than PYM, given the material.
weak Comedy category? OMG.
Haven’t seen “I care a lot” (will do soon, finally opened in streaming here!) or “On the Rocks”, but consider this competition for PYW:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: to create a coherent structure with really limited material and make the maximum out of it. It’s extremely challenging from an editing p.o.v. and that is why it could win.
Palm Springs: time loop made feel fresh again, in what is a subgenre that has been not feeling fresh for a while.
The 3 films I’ve seen would certainly be great Oscar nominees and winners. I don’t get people saying 2020 has been a weak year, it hasn’t by any means… I think that the films released this year were the ones that the studios were more confident about the quality, and those postponed for 2021 and 2022 could have been for the studios also thinking they needed some extra polish (In the Heights, Black Widow, and so on…).
Yup, it’s in rough shape, clearly, if it can’t even win this. Still, ACE is pretty terrible at predicting BP, so it can’t be ruled out 100%. (Parasite is actually the only BP winner that won here since Argo, which is quite a long time for how much anecdotal credit ACE gets for being a BP precursor.) It looks terrible logically, but who knows?! Statistically it really does mean close to nothing (unless there’s an angle I’ve not yet discovered, which proves otherwise).
Ted Lasso wins for the “Make Rebecca Great Again” episode. Pretty weird, I thought the “The Hope That Kills You” episode (also nominated) had much better editing.
My top ten of 2020
1. Sound of metal
2. Soul
3. Nomadland
4. Bad boys for life
5. My octopus teacher
6. Mank
7. Minari
8. Two distant strangers
9. Let him go
10. The father
Rick & Morty and David Byrne’s American Utopia, are deserving beyond belief.
I have a nagging feeling Borat is going to win in Comedy.
That would definitely put Nomadland as the clear favorite.
I was watching today SBC special for Vanity Fair disecting a scene of Borat (the cake shop – clinic scene) and putting it in context, unveils how difficult and tricky shooting was, as the cinematographer/camera needed to earn some shots and how they couldn’t ever risk being noticed by the police, that they were filmming Borat 2, which would put the whole project in danger. So the editor had to work with very little material and still help to construct the scenes and deliver the punches. This kind of filmmaking is way more complex that it seems, pure guerrilla filmmaking, which always is more challenging than it seems. I had to shoot a music video in that fashion, with no permission to film in the crowded location and with everyone always paying attention in case security appeared – an hypnotic underground tunnel that connects two underground lines in Barcelona, that seems endless (I could actually make a film about the shooting of that video, that costed me, breaking up with my first boyfriend… really odd story, including a man falling into coma in my arms)
Updating my 2020 top 50 list, after watching AT LAST! “Promising Young Woman” and “Palm Springs”. I hope PYW takes Original Screenplay and Lead Actress, and wouldn’t be bothered if it actually won every Oscar it’s nominated for.
(EDITED to highlight which ones would be my winners if I decided the Oscar categories)
Block A: The Must Sees
1. Nomadland (Picture, Director, Cinematography)
2. Promising Young Woman (Original Screenplay)
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Lead Actress, Adapted Screenplay)
4. Historias Lamentables (Unfortunate Stories) (Supporting Actress, International Film)
5. David Byrne’s American Utopia
6. Da 5 Bloods
7. Mank (Production Design, Costume Design)
8. Collective (Documentary)
9. The Godfather’s Coda: The Death of Michael Corleone
10. Soul (Animated Feature, Score)
11. Dick Johnson is Dead
12. Disclosure: Trans Lives on Screen
13. The Platform
14. His House
Block B: The Great Ones
15. Tenet (Visual Effects, Film Editing)
16. The Father (Lead Actor)
17. Sound of Metal (Supporting Actor, Sound)
18. Palm Springs
19. Circus of Books
20. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
21. One Night in Miami
22. The Trial of the Chicago 7
23. The Invisible Man
24. The Life Ahead
25. Uncle Frank
26. The White Tiger
27. Judas and the Black Messiah
Block C: The good, just not great ones
28. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmaggeddom
29. The Roads not Taken
30. The Boys in the Band
31. The Social Dilemma
32. Onward
33. The New Mutants
34. Home (Hogar)
35. Valley Girl
36. I’m thinking of ending Things
37. The Vast of Night
38. 7500
39. Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Song: Husavik)
40. Just Another Christmas (Tudo Bem no Natal que Bem)
41. Greenland
42. #Alive (Korean version)
43. Kadaver
Block D: The somewhat disappointing but watchable.
44. Crip Camp
45. Over the Moon
46. Fatman
47. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run
48. Hillbilly Elegy (Make Up)
49. An American Pickle
50. My Octopus Teacher
position of Oscar nominees not in the top 50:
57. Love and Monsters
60. The Midnight Sky
61. Birds of Prey
63. Mulan
74. Minari
Nice! Promising Young Woman up there where it deserves to be…
What did you think of judas And The Black Messiah and Another round?
I didn’t see Another Round. Did I slip Judas and the Black Messiah? Summary: Spike Lee would have done a way more compelling film. It’s good, but it doesn’t have the same impact of Da 5 Bloods or Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit, on me.
So yeah, I edited it, it slipped on my mind to update the list after watching it, my bad.
I’d ask why you hated MINARI – except that I really don’t want to know.
What an odd time of day