- A once in a generation cliffhanger for Best Actress. I’ve been covering the Oscars for over 20 years and even if there have been surprises over the years there has never been such an unpredictable Best Actress category. This goes all the way back to Bette Davis for All About Eve vs. Gloria Swanson for Sunset Boulevard losing to Judy Holliday for Born Yesterday. Usually one actress dominates the awards but not this year. This year there are many factors at play that make it unpredictable – like the desire for there to finally be another black actress to win — Halle Berry being the only one in 93 years.Golden Globes — Frances McDormand, Viola Davis, Carey Mulligan all nominated. They lost to Andra Day.SAG Awards – Andra Day not nominated, Viola Davis beats both Frances McDormand and Carey Mulligan.
BAFA Awards – Andra Day, Viola Davis and Carey Mulligan NOT nominated, Frances McDormand wins.
Throwing things off is Carey Mulligan winning the Critics Choice and Spirit Awards, not typically necessary precursors. Since SAG began there has never been an Oscar winner in Best Actress who didn’t win either the SAG or the Globe. Let’s quickly look at which group claims the highest record for wins.
Clearly, the Globe has a much better track record when it comes to predicting the winner in this category, minus the weird year with Kate Winslet, which kind of doesn’t count.
So this is as much of a cliffhanger as you’re ever going to see at the Oscars. I would tune in just for that, seriously.
- To see what the Oscar Night producers are going to do in this challenging time. It is slightly unpredictable and mysterious and will be a once-in-a-lifetime thing so for history’s sake, tune in.
- Speaking of history, it will be made in all sorts of ways tomorrow night, from the first woman of color winning in Best Director to potentially two women winning in screenplay. Maybe this doesn’t interest you but it will go into the history books.
- You can hate-watch and go on Twitter. You know you want to. You know you need to.
- What the hell else you got to do? You got some sporting event to attend? A street fair? An actual movie? Mall shopping? Binge-watching another cooking show?
Really, though, you want to at least tune in to see who will win Best Actress because right now, no one knows. NO ONE KNOWS. And that, my friends, is a first.
I am sticking with the Golden Globe winner, even though that prediction will probably be wrong.
Right now, Oscar Twitter is tearing itself apart on the fight for Best Actress, with most camps dividing into the Carey Mulligan camp and the Viola Davis camp. It is getting vicious too. It’s a complete throw down. I imagine whomever wins there will be tears.
Seriously, the main reason you should watch is if we don’t then the Oscars will have terrible ratings. Nobody wants that. We like the Oscars. We want them to be around for long time. They might not be perfect, and they might be especially not perfect this year, but they’re part of our American history – there isn’t another ceremony like them in all of the world. That is something to cherish and preserve.
Let the good times roll.