How exciting that we’re entering our first year with ten nomination slots on the Oscar ballot, thus expanding the race significantly. We have on paper a long list of films that are to be released this year, give or take. There are always many films that come from places unknown as the year goes forward. The various film festivals will begin after Summer. However, in looking over the list of release dates, we have a rough sketch of the movies that are coming out.
The voting and tabulation will be different this time around because choosing five and counting out a random number between 5 and 10 is different than choosing an even 10. Here is how Marshall Flores describes the tabulating:
2) These ballots will be sorted by their #1 votes into piles for each film in contention. This acts as the first round of voting.
3) Any film that receives at least 9.1% of the vote is automatically nominated for Best Picture (and if any of these films hit 11%, they qualify for the “surplus rule,” which means the next highest ranked film on these ballots will receive a fractional bonus vote)
4) The film with the fewest number of votes will be eliminated, and its ballots will be redistributed to the next highest ranked film still in contention, and acts as the next round of voting.
5) Vote redistribution from the film eliminated in the prior round takes place
6) Any film that receives at least 9.1% of the remaining votes is nominated for Best Picture (and surplus rule continues to be in effect)
7) The film with the fewest number of votes will be eliminated, and its ballots will be redistributed in the next round.
8) Steps 5-7 repeat indefinitely until all 10 Best Picture nominees have been determined.
Soggy Bottom
The Last Duel
The Many Saints of Newark
Dune
West Side Story
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
Belfast
Tick Tick …Boom!
July 1
No Sudden Move HBO Max / Warner Bros. Pictures, Steven Soderbergh (director); Ed Solomon (screenplay); Don Cheadle, Benicio del Toro, David Harbour, Jon Hamm, Amy Seimetz, Brendan Fraser, Kieran Culkin, Noah Jupe, Craig Grant, Julia Fox, Ray Liotta, Bill Duke
July 30
Stillwater Focus Features / DreamWorks Pictures / Participant; Tom McCarthy (director/screenplay); Marcus Hinchey, Thomas Bidegain, Noé Debré (screenplay); Matt Damon, Camille Cottin, Abigail Breslin
August 6
Annette Amazon Studios – Leos Carax (director); Ron Mael, Russell Mael, Leos Carax (screenplay); Adam Driver, Marion Cotillard, Simon Helberg, Russell Mael
John and the Hole – IFC Films – Pascual Sisto (director); Nicolás Giacobone (screenplay); Charlie Shotwell, Jennifer Ehle, Michael C. Hall, Taissa Farmiga
August 13
Respect Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer / Bron Creative Liesl Tommy (director); Tracey Scott Wilson (screenplay); Jennifer Hudson, Forest Whitaker, Marlon Wayans, Audra McDonald, Marc Maron, Tituss Burgess, Saycon Sengbloh, Hailey Kilgore, Skye Dakota Turner, Tate Donovan, Mary J. Blige
Coda Apple TV+ Sian Heder (director/screenplay); Emilia Jones, Eugenio Derbez, Troy Kotsur, Ferdia Walsh-Peelo, Daniel Durant, Marlee Matlin
August 20
Reminiscence HBO Max / Warner Bros. Pictures / FilmNation Entertainment Lisa Joy (director/screenplay); Hugh Jackman, Rebecca Ferguson, Thandiwe Newton, Cliff Curtis, Marina de Tavira, Daniel Wu, Mojean Aria, Brett Cullen, Natalie Martinez, Angela Sarafyan, Nico Parker
The Card Counter Focus Features; Paul Schrader (director/screenplay); Oscar Isaac, Tye Sheridan, Tiffany Haddish, Willem Dafoe
September 17
Everybody’s Talking About Jamie Amazon Studios / 20th Century Studios / Regency Enterprises / Film4 – Jonathan Butterell (director); Tom MacRae (screenplay); Max Harwood, Sarah Lancashire, Lauren Patel, Shobna Gulati, Ralph Ineson, Adeel Akhtar, Samuel Bottomley, Sharon Horgan, Richard E. Grant
The Eyes of Tammy Faye Searchlight Pictures – Michael Showalter (director); Abe Sylvia (screenplay); Jessica Chastain, Andrew Garfield, Cherry Jones, Vincent D’Onofrio
Blue Bayou – Focus Features / Entertainment One – Justin Chon (director/screenplay); Justin Chon, Alicia Vikander, Mark O’Brien, Linh Dan Pham, Emory Cohen
September 24
The Many Saints of Newark HBO Max / Warner Bros. Pictures / New Line Cinema / HBO Films – Alan Taylor (director); David Chase, Lawrence Konner (screenplay); Alessandro Nivola, Leslie Odom Jr., Jon Bernthal, Corey Stoll, Michael Gandolfini, Billy Magnussen, John Magaro, Michela De Rossi, Ray Liotta, Vera Farmiga
October 1
Dune HBO Max / Warner Bros. Pictures / Legendary Pictures – Denis Villeneuve (director/screenplay); Jon Spaihts, Eric Roth (screenplay); Timothée Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson, Oscar Isaac, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Zendaya, David Dastmalchian, Chang Chen, Sharon Duncan-Brewster, Charlotte Rampling, Jason Momoa, Javier Bardem
October 15
The Last Duel Cinema – The Last Duel 20th Century Studios / Scott Free Productions / TSG Entertainment Ridley Scott (director); Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, Nicole Holofcener (screenplay); Matt Damon, Adam Driver, Jodie Comer, Ben Affleck
October 22
Antlers Searchlight Pictures Scott Cooper (director/screenplay); Nick Antosca, C. Henry Chaisson (screenplay); Keri Russell, Jesse Plemons, Jeremy T. Thomas, Graham Greene, Scott Haze, Rory Cochrane, Amy Madigan
October 22
The French Dispatch Searchlight Pictures / Indian Paintbrush Wes Anderson (director/screenplay); Benicio del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Léa Seydoux, Frances McDormand, Timothée Chalamet, Lyna Khoudri, Jeffrey Wright, Mathieu Amalric, Stephen Park, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson
Last Night in Soho Focus Features / Working Title Films / Film4 Edgar Wright (director/screenplay); Krysty Wilson-Cairns (screenplay); Thomasin McKenzie, Anya Taylor-Joy, Matt Smith, Diana Rigg, Rita Tushingham, Terence Stamp.
Cry Macho HBO Max / Warner Bros. Pictures / Malpaso Productions Clint Eastwood (director); Nick Schenk, N. Richard Nash (screenplay); Clint Eastwood, Eduardo Minett, Dwight Yoakam
November 5
Eternals Marvel Studios – Chloé Zhao (director/screenplay); Patrick Burleigh (screenplay); Gemma Chan, Richard Madden, Kumail Nanjiani, Lia McHugh, Brian Tyree Henry, Lauren Ridloff, Barry Keoghan, Don Lee, Gil Birmingham, Harish Patel, Kit Harington, Salma Hayek, Angelina Jolie
November 12
Belfast Focus Features – Kenneth Branagh (director/screenplay); Judi Dench, Caitriona Balfe, Jamie Dornan, Ciarán Hinds, Jude Hill
November 19
King Richard – HBO Max / Warner Bros. Pictures / Westbrook Studios – Reinaldo Marcus Green (director); Zach Baylin (screenplay); Will Smith, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Bernthal, Saniyya Sidney, Demi Singleton, Tony Goldwyn, Dylan McDermott
November 24
House of Gucci Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer / Scott Free Productions / Bron Creative – Ridley Scott (director); Roberto Bentivegna (screenplay); Lady Gaga, Adam Driver, Al Pacino, Jeremy Irons, Jared Leto, Jack Huston, Reeve Carney, Salma Hayek
November 26
Soggy Bottom Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer / Bron Creative – Paul Thomas Anderson (director/screenplay); Cooper Hoffman, Bradley Cooper, Alana Haim, Benny Safdie
December 3
Nightmare Alley – Searchlight Pictures / TSG Entertainment – Guillermo del Toro (director/screenplay); Kim Morgan (screenplay); Bradley Cooper, Cate Blanchett, Willem Dafoe, Toni Collette, Richard Jenkins, Ron Perlman, Rooney Mara, David Strathairn
December 10
West Side Story – 20th Century Studios / Amblin Entertainment – Steven Spielberg (director); Tony Kushner (screenplay); Ansel Elgort, Rachel Zegler, Ariana DeBose, David Alvarez, Mike Faist, Josh Andrés Rivera, Ana Isabelle, Corey Stoll, Brian d’Arcy James, Rita Moreno
A Journal for Jordan – Columbia Pictures / Escape Artists / Bron Studios – Denzel Washington (director); Virgil Williams (screenplay); Michael B. Jordan, Chanté Adams
December 25
Cyrano – Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer / Working Title Films – Joe Wright (director); Erica Schmidt (screenplay); Peter Dinklage, Haley Bennett, Ben Mendelsohn, Brian Tyree Henry, Kelvin Harrison Jr.
No release date yet
The Tragedy of Macbeth -A2 – Joel Coen; Frances McDormand, Denzel Washington, Brendan Gleeson
Tick Tick Boom! – Netflix – Lin-Manuel Miranda (director), Steven Levenson (screenplay), Andrew Garfield, Bradley Whitford, Vanessa Hudgens.
The Harder They Fall – Jeymes Samuel (writer+director), Boaz Yakin (writer), Idris Elba, Zazie Beetz, Delroy Lindo, LaKeith Stanfield
Don’t Look Up – Netflix – Adam McKay (writer + director) – Gina Gershon, Matthew Perry, Jennifer Lawrence, Cate Blanchett, Meryl Streep, Tyler Perry, Mark Rylance
Being the Ricardos – Netflix – Aaron Sorkin (writer + director) Nicole Kidman, Javier Bardem, JK Simmons.
Blonde – Andrew Dominik (writer + director) Ana de Armas, Julianne Nicholson, Adrien Brody
Spencer – Pablo Larrain (director), Steven Knight (writer) Kristen Stewart, Sally Hawkins.
What think you, Oscarwatchers? What would be your top ten picks?
Im actually utterly shellshocked i would have though if i not mistaken?> the FIRST EVER hollywood Biopic fittingly by long absent once past drowning in oscar glory MGM studios rightfully bankrolling the film about arguably the most influential singer full stop of the 20th century (not just for Blacks)… who did game changer in music and lyrics that really punched above by those days the early form pop- culture to proclaim messages on her desires for Society but do it in a way nobody thought could be achieved before in the Post- Elvis Era…esp by a Black woman….let alone any woman…indeed…Mariah Carey, Beyonce, any musical artist of colour..esp for women can credit their success and influence to the founding ‘queen’ in Aretha Franklin..So…i actually shellshocked stunned that Sasha you do not have Aretha Franklin Biopic as the default outright far and away oscar favourite..
Now i say this taking into account maybe? reviews not as strong as the studio had hoped or pple expected? but if there to be a predetermined best picture- oscar sweep and i know loooooooooooonnng way to go in this years oscar race why the heck not one of one of the founding mothers of 20th century American-global music?
Ironically this goea against my hopes preference for ‘Dune’ long anticipated remake that still has potential to be an oscar winner…however..tbh it have to take a damn masterpiece of a film to rival the sure to be surely ??! clear front runner of ‘respect’ ..
I have alarmingly high expectations of this biopic..and i hope…that save for the giant of american- global music…and advocate through her music for racial equality…one most prominent in her generaiton in the arts and prob for all time on behalf of Blacks..beyond that American values of equality and yes.. RESPECT… but one would hope for this film to be confirmed as one most valued …powerful and unforgettable movies MAYBE POTENTIALLY of our generation..that potentially speaks to today that the films must achieve more than ….being a base level biopic..it must be far more than style as the lavish trailer suggests..and must reveal more to Aretha than just her music and inspirtation…but her trials and tribulations….the challenge for a film like this..is a Biopic has not won best picture..since if i not mistaken? ; the kings speech which was more than a biopic..it was funny and engaging and never shied away from the raw challenges of the central character and didn’t lose site of its place in promoting the pivotal historical event that was during WWII ‘the kings speech’….the upcoming RESPECT Biopic need to achieve a similar level..
In order to convince me that it EARNS eventual (likely?) best picture favouritism..and likely domination sweep i going in early..IF CRITICS LOVE IT IF the film is more than a promo- reflection study of Aretha the Artist…Aretha the symbol…got to be so much more to really resonate with audiences…given the importance of the central character and EASILY the most important Biopic since ‘; the Kings Speech’… quite possibly/ likely….this image below concerns me..over a month the trailer been advertised…and…see for yourself highlighted below:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/22f161eee0fe7371ffd84ccf3b2c5e8fb10b5127e6db6950f80d1db251941763.jpg
as you can see…3million viewers in a month..compared to other film trailers and not necessarily box office blockbusters but other high quality possible oscar contender quality level films or could be considered such…this amount of views for the Aretha Frankkling biopic is just average number of views…maybe people are waiting for the critics verdict…
I would hope the critics when they review it..do not just focus on the smybolism ‘how her message speaks to today’ view poi9nt..i hope they assess it for it depth and multi-dimensional and necessary portrayal of a giant and queen of soul and music- full stop..that the only way for film critics to show maximumj R-E-S-P-EC-T for a biopic such as this.
I am very keen incredibly so to see the Dune remake and reimagining…better have a decent run time however given the depth and scope and breadth of the intergalactic/ geopolitical backdrop story- theatre of intergalactic war setting all occuring over a love/ semi biopic story of the cnetral character…i remember the opriginal Dune..frankly while it a sci- fi cult classic…it was underwhelming even for its time..but was not the filmmakers fault..truth is a film like Dune should not have been released until the technology as at the level to do full justice to what is one of the greatest sci- fi epics from the books…ever told..
So how exactly does the surpass vote work? Is it just in the first round that it kicks in (so if a film gets to 11% after the second round do additional votes for that film start triggering the surplus rule or does it only trigger in the first round) and if it does only trigger in the first round, does that film continue to share votes or picks up in subsequent rounds. Also in number terms how does it work? Is it simply the share of a films vote above 11% that goes down ballot or is it more complex than that?
Not sure about the first question but I’d suggest that it’s probably only in the first round and that those movies can’t recieve more votes in later rounds because otherwise you’d need to have an ever-changing surplus vote as otherwise the people voting for a big movie in for example second place would throw their vote away. Also, looking at Dr. Rob’s ballot simulations, when a movie gets nominated, the listing of its votes stops which might suggest something along these lines as well (or just that the information concerning those extra votes isn’t interesting because the film already got nominated). However, about the second question, if I’m not mistaken the idea is that the movie that triggered the surplus gets the 9.1% and the rest go down ballot
Yeah interesting, I know under the old system it was only triggered in the first round and films can’t receive more once the rule is triggered but I thought it may be different with the new system since with the old system there were a set number of rounds whereas with the new system it keeps going until we have 10 films left. Side note, I assume this is the same system used in 2010 so its not “new” but I’m using the word new for lack of a better term.
I didn’t really expect the new system to have a surplus rule to be honest I thought it would be straight eliminate the bottom film (and reallocate votes that had it in #1) until there are 10 left so I’m trying to get my head around whether they will be doing surplus calculations every round or whether they will try to simplify it (I like figuring out the intricacies of the math).
For the record, I’m basically thinking of this ballot as being the regular nomination ballot for all the other categories just with 10 nominees instead of five. Sot that’s what I’m basing the concept on, because it seems like the surplus rule is only triggered in the first round on that ballot structure (or at least I haven’t found an example of it being triggered later on) so I don’t see why they’d make it in a more complicated way for best picture than the other categories. And expanding the lineup doesn’t really remove the reason why surplus exists, that voters don’t have to worry about throwing their vote away if they vote for the biggest movies.
Re: redistribution of surplus votes
I believe every vote for Film X (which achieves, let’s say, 13% of the vote) is then recalculated to the 10% weight. So, in this case, each vote for Film X would be worth 0.86% for Film X. The remaining 0.14% is then redistributed to whatever film was second on each of those Film X ballots.
Isn’t the general rule that the recalculation is to the weight that would barely get it nominated? That’s why I thought it was 9.1% rather than 10% but I’m not sure
Sticking with these for now:
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24)
Passing (Netflix)
Coda (Apple TV+)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight)
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)
The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Cyrano (MGM)
In the Heights (Warner Bros.)
Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project (United Artists)
The Last Duel (Fox)
No power of the dog?
Good question. It’s an intriguing story, and Cumberbatch shouldn’t be underestimated.
YAY!!!!!! We are back to the sanity of the elimination balloting. This should make the simulated balloting much easier.
to be able to keep track of what elimination balloting is…well, you’re smarter than me
Any word on a second trailer for Dune?
now that I know Dune is just a first part of a supposed two film production, and they havent decided yet on doing the second, I lost a bit of interest for it. Big chance there won’t be a second part, and we will be fed a half eaten meal
Mr. Alonso is probably right. Academy voters love musical movies and with the woke and Black lives matter movements, a movie full of black and hispanic people is a sure win. Personally, I’ve never loved musicals films. And I’d like that Dune wins. But…
It’s insane to try to “predict” now, but at this point I have feelings that…
Lin-Manuel Miranda might have multiple noms, maybe even TWO Best Picture noms, however I feel “In the Heights” might be the stronger possibility for a nom and even a win. However, his “Encanto” Animated Feature offers AMPAS members a chance to give him an Oscar for “Best Picture (Animated)” and free them to pick up another film at Picture.
Olga Merediz seems an early frontrunner for Supporting Actress, however it may be considered in some way a similar pick to last year’s Youn. So I feel nom, yes, win… maybe?
West Side Story might feel too calculated while In the Heights may feel as most “fresh”. That is why I feel WSS may really underperform to the point of Spielberg being the lone director nom.
Luca is done already. It might be nominated, but the win is unlikely and would be as underwhelming as Big Hero 6 winning the year of How to Train your Dragon 2 while The LEGO Movie – one of the best animated films of all time – was nominated only for Original Song (which lost). It’s a good film, just too formulaic and predictable and honestly, 24 hours later, the only thing I clearly remember really liking is Sacha Baron Cohen’s character.
Ana de Armas is clearly on the rise. Her Golden Globe nomination – and Oscar buzz – for Knives Out, caught me by surprise and while I am OK with the Globe nom, I still shrug on Oscar buzz for that performance in particular. Still, that’s a sign that she’s bein REALLY promoted and Blonde may be the vehicle that would earn her, her 1st Oscar nom. Dominik may be on the edge to break through, commercially and Oscar-wise, but I have doubts. Being a Netflix production WON’T help, they have too many candies on their box, and they will have to really bet for ONE on each category if they want to win. So, inner competition may debunk the film and de Armas’ chances.
The one I can’t really shake off my head is Aronofski’s “The Whale”. It really looks like a strong candidate for Lead Actor (Brendan Fraser, that came close to a nom for “Gods & Monsters” and maybe even for the Best Picture winner, “Crash”, and would be in a likely career comeback to form) and Make Up. Probably Adapted Screenplay can also join the pack of noms, and with those three, I think Best Picture (maybe Director, as well?) could be at reach. By the way, the accusations of fat-phobia due to Fraser’s casting, are beyond ridiculous… and I think that they came early enough, so it won’t be a factor in the race.
Also, “Madres Paralelas”… they have resumed shooting, and are in postproduction at this point… question is, will be opening in Cannes next year? Or is Almodovar and El Deseo thinking in opening in Telluride, Toronto… and aiming for this year’s Oscar race? Specially given the “snub” of last year’s supposed slamdunk of “The Human Voice”. Almodovar, like Bergman, Fellini, Kurosawa, has an already solid status in Hollywood and they yearn to convince him to shoot something in English, at that side of the Atlantic, the last bone they threw at him was 19 years ago, so… he knows he may be “due” for another. Also, Penelope Cruz and Rossy de Palma (who should have been nominated and won, for “Julieta”, if you ask me). Say no more.
I’ll be shocked if Almodovar doesn’t go to Cannes. He’s the most overdue director for a Palm d’Or.
I actually forbid him to skip Cannes until he takes the top prize home.
Pedro, querido, si me lees, vete a Cannes.
fun pointless trivia about your post and me… I met both Ray Harryhausen (at my work) and Almodóvar’s producer and brother, Agustín (at an event at the Málaga Film Festival, along spanish director Julio Médem), both in person. Had a brief chat with both of them, and asked Harryhausen for an autograph… the only other celebrity I ever asked for an autograph (and happened some years later) was Richard Lester… I’ve met plenty of celebrities at my job, and also out of it.
On your post… I doubt Pedro will ever win Palm d’Or, honestly (the best shot he ever had, was Pain & Glory and Parasite and Portrait of a Lady on Fire stood on his way). He is more likely to win the Best Director Óscar, whenever he finally starts shooting in English – and he is really tempted, there are so many actresses he would just love to direct…
WOW, I’m jealous of that story, not gonna lie. Hope he was as kind as he seemed to be.
Concerning Pedro, I don’t think he’ll win the Palm but I do think he’ll keep trying till the end. Not only for the prize, but also for the Cannes label that always boosts his French box-office.
We never really know with Cannes, it’s way harder to predict than the Oscars (and I suck at Oscars’ predictions, so just imagine) Sometimes it only takes an underwhelming line-up to take the Palm easily (2015, Dheepan) or an overwhelming one, with A list directors and bold new choices that split votes, then a more modest film wins (2016, I, Daniel Blake – Loach’s second Palm, to whom Almodovar, in a Bening-Swank way, lost twice) Sometimes nobody sees it coming (2017, The square. Almodovar was the president of the jury, but he voted for BPM) Sometimes it’s crystal clear since the first show (2013, Blue is the warmest color)
By the way, rumor has it that in 2019, once Tarantino’s film was scheduled, nobody wanted to put their film right after his because Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would get the whole media attention. So a director kindly proposed to pass his movie right after Tarantino’s. Big day came and after the show, people were mostly talking about the second film and that was the first nail on Once’s coffin for the awards race…since, of course, the other one was Parasite.
Ray Harryhausen was polite, humble and genuinely shocked that I would recognise him and that humbled also that I told him that he was the first autograph I had ever asked for, from a celebrity – and he knew that, due to my work, I had encountered and interacted with plenty. Richard Lester (a Palm d’Or winner!) was also humbled – he was travelling with his family – when I told him that the only other autograph I ever asked for, was Harryhausen’s. I have to say, that I would have asked for another one, but couldn’t have the chance for a quick stop due to against-the-clock procedure, with gay German comic-book author Ralf König, but we have many knowns in common so I know that I will eventually encounter him in any trip to Germany in the future. That is, till I banned Cologne from my future trips, ever – long, sad story.
To add to this trivia, I also got to meet Sir David Frost, subject of the Best Picture nominated Frost/Nixon…
On Pedro, again… I really think he’s more obsessed with taking Best Director at the Oscars, than Palm d’Or. There’s a reason. Palm d’Or can be really random and depends so much of who the jury will be… Oscars are way more “stable” and therefore he just needs to go the extra step, which is to shoot in English.
Added trivia… interacted with two Oscar winners as well, but with José Luis Garci (1982 Foreign Film, “Volver a Empezar”) was just to attend a conference, and with Guillermo del Toro… well, he contacted me via e-mail, to thank me for the review of “The Devil’s Backbone”, published back then, at Aintitcool. I’d love to have a coffee with him, though, he felt like a down-to-earth master. Also had a chat – live – with director Álex de la Iglesia and producer (1993’s Foreign Film winner) Andrés Vicente Gómez many years ago… so I’ve met THREE directors/producers that won Foreign Film… the only one that I am missing, out the spanish wins, is Amenábar, but I competed vs The Impossible’s and The Orphanage’s writer, Sergio G. Sánchez, at the short film competition at a Film Festival in 2001 (he won), so I met him as well.
Ironically, I never met Antonio Banderas or Sean Connery – this one, for minutes – or Deborah Kerr, all living close in my area (Banderas is from here), but I did meet Melanie Griffith or Lady Sarah Ferguson, among others. Lenny Kravitz also, but by chance in the streets of Barcelona (that was SOOO COOL)
Spanish release date for Madres Paralelas, September 10th.
You were more than right, Jesus.
Venice, I guess.
So, Pedro is probably going to try to launch this film for 2021 consideration… if Cruz wins the Volpi Cup, we may have another Lead Actress competitor in our hands. If both de Armas and Cruz get the nomination, it would be the first time that 2 Spanish (de Armas is Spaniard and Cuban) actresses get the nom. Add fuel to the quite likely latino year we may have in our hands, thanks to Lin-Manuel Miranda being everywhere (and the overdueness for some latino recognition)
The problem I think with In the Heights is that it really underwhelmed at the box office and for a summer movie to continue to have legs up to March, I think it needed more box office success. Also these colorism accusations are not dying down and I think that while they won’t have much of an impact on its chances, they definitely didn’t help.
I also agree that if The Whale is at the level of The Wrestler, Black Swan, or Requiem for a Dream, it definitely will be nominated in BP and Fraser will be nominated as well.
But then there was “Noah” and “Mother!”
I have to disagree on Big Hero 6. Sure, that year, the lack of The Lego Movie on that Best Animated feature oscar was scandalous, but BH6. deserved the win. It’s a cult classic now
In my opinion it was mildly disappointing and predictable, How to Train your Dragon 2 was more deserving. And both of them shouldn’t have been even nominated, The LEGO Movie was a landmark of cinema, probably the Citizen Kane of industrial Hollywood, if you fully analyze it. It seems obvious that they didn’t want to award a full lenght advertisement for LEGO, but the film was multilayered, thought-provoking, and used the weakness of being, well, an advertisement, to build a self-conscious narrative that explored multiple themes and was Miller & Lord’s way to tell filmmakers, that there’s no small project, but big challenges to make a piece of art, out of anything. I am still in awe with it.
Mi most expected films for the season are Annette, Benedetta, Memoria, Tre Piani, La France and Journal de Tuoa. And I predict an overwhelming record of ZERO nominations, so I’m going to add Dune to the list just for the collective experience, you know…
I saw the trailer for Respect last night. It looked soooooo generic. But then again, so did Judy, and that still won easily, so who knows.
I just can’t with musical biopics after they were lacerated so completely by Dewey Cox
I wish they went more in the Rocketman route. That was really original and satisfying
That it was, and kudos to Sir Elton for not sanitizing the story which arguably cost the film a hundred million dollars or so in box office and multiple Oscars.
I still wonder how special Bohemian Rhapsody could have been if the surviving members had allowed ALL the story to be told.
I have a theory that they had Bohemian Rhapsody pretty much finished, then somebody said “Oh, crap, we forgot to include Jim Hutton! People are going to be pretty mad if we don’t!” so they slapped together a couple of Jim Hutton scenes and edited them in hoping they would sort of make sense.
LMAO..that had never occurred to me. Man, that last act of the movie was a mess. Is that when Singer walked off the film?
… and Sacha Baron Cohen to star, going completely wild on the bigger-than-life persona that Freddie Mercury was.
1. Is Three Thousand Years of Longing coming out this year? If so, get ready for the George Miller career achievement night.
2. Don’t sleep on Belfast, with the real life troubles starting up again in Northern Ireland, that might unintentionally give some heft to what appears to be Branagh’s version of Roma
3. In the off chance that things calm down by the end of the year and Miller’s film isn’t competing, French Dispatch will finally get Wes Anderson into at least ONE Oscar
4. Chastain walks to the Oscar
I would love for Jessica Chastain to win. She has been so wonderful in many films, esp. the one for which she should have won, Zero Dark Thirty. I especially enjoyed A Most Violent Year, which I have watched several times.