Heading into 2022, what drives the Best Actress race will be, as usual, “the narrative.” Last year’s narratives, or Oscar stories, were kind of all over the map and ended up collapsing by the end. Had the Oscars been held in late February, rather than late April, it’s hard to say how they would have turned out. There was a strong desire among many observers to break Halle Berry’s record of being the only black actress to win an Oscar in Academy history but there were two rivals for that milestone, Viola Davis and Andra Day, not one. Carey Mulligan’s popularity was another factor. In the end, Frances McDormand, who had strong support from the BAFTA contingent, prevailed to collect the prize.
Some people will say things like, “Well we knew it would be McDormand since Nomadland was winning Best Picture.” But for an actress to win without winning the Globe or the SAG would be nearly unprecedented, a long shot. After she won the BAFTA it seemed safe to assume to she might win the Oscar but there were different nominees at the Oscars than at BAFTA (because BAFTA’s were jury selected). Either way, there COULD have been a narrative for McDormand but there really wasn’t; not even Meryl Streep has won three Best Actress Oscars. McDormand was already going to win an Oscar for producing. It does not seem right that Viola Davis hasn’t won a lead Oscar at all. But it is what it is and it turned out to be what it turned out to be.
That means that Frances McDormand may or may not have a narrative heading into this year, where she will no doubt give probably the performance of her career in Macbeth. It will probably run circles around her subdued work in Nomadland. But then the question will become, does she win four to tie to with Katharine Hepburn?
Erik Anderson, over at AwardsWatch, keeps a fairly handy list of various potential names that may or may not be included in this year’s Oscar race. As of May of 2021, he has compiled the following list of hopefuls. I have bolded those I think probably have the best shot – though this is sight unseen and completely unreliable and based on absolutely nothing but a hunch (* = won a Lead Actress Oscar):
- Chante Adams – Journal for Jordan (Sony Pictures)
- Caitriona Balfe – Belfast (Focus Features)
- Melissa Barrera – Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Halle Berry* – Bruised (Netflix)
- Cate Blanchett* – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – lead or supporting?
- Sandra Bullock* – Untitled Nora Fingscheidt aka Unforgiven (Netflix)
- Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures)
- Jessica Chastain – The Forgiven (Searchlight Pictures)
- Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse (Netflix)
- Jodie Comer – The Last Duel (20th Century Studios) – lead or supporting?
- Marion Cotillard* – Annette (Amazon Studios)
- Penélope Cruz – Official Competition (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Ana de Armas – Blonde (Netflix)
- Ana de Armas – Deep Water (20th Century Studios)
- Lou de Laage – The Mad Woman’s Ball (Amazon Studios)
- Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – lead or supporting?
- Beanie Feldstein – The Humans (A24)
- Lady Gaga – House of Gucci (MGM/UA)
- Leslie Grace – In the Heights (Warner Bros)
- Jennifer Hudson – Respect (MGM)
- Angelina Jolie – Those Who Wished Me Dead (Warner Bros)
- Emilia Jones – CODA (Apple)
- Nicole Kidman* – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
- Jennifer Lawrence* – Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
- Jennifer Lawrence* – Red, White and Water (A24)
- Lesley Manville – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features)
- Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – lead or supporting?
- Melissa McCarthy – The Starling (Netflix)
- Frances McDormand** – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24) – lead or supporting?
- Thomasin McKenzie – Last Night in Soho (Focus Features) – lead or supporting?
- Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
- Margot Robbie – Untitled David O. Russell aka Canterbury Glass (20th Century Studios)
- Saoirse Ronan – Untitled Tom George Murder Mystery (Searchlight Pictures)
- Amanda Seyfried – A Mouthful of Air (Sony Pictures Worldwide Acquisitions)
- Kristen Stewart – Spencer (Neon)
- Tilda Swinton – Memoria (Neon)
- Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho (Focus Features)
- Tessa Thompson – Passing (Netflix)
- Odessa Young – Mothering Sunday (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Rachel Zegler – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Jennifer Hudson has a strong shot at claiming the early lead in this race but that’s because she has a strong narrative heading into it. The other narrative that jumps out at me is that Jessica Chastain is doing that Jessica Chastain thing with three roles heading into the year. When she has a year like that it makes it harder because she competes against herself. Either way, though, she is on the list of those who have outstanding careers but have not yet won an Oscar. That’s certainly true of a few others on the list who could use momentum from their careers to push through to a win – like Saoirse Ronan, Rooney Mara (but she’s likely supporting for Nightmare Alley).
There are, of course, actresses who have won in Supporting but not yet in Lead, like Tilda Swinton, Penelope Cruz and Angelina Jolie.
But the Oscars are only sometimes about finally awarding someone who is overdue. Sometimes they are about the hot new thing. I can see a few of those on this list, including Margot Robbie, Jodie Comer, Tessa Thompson, Anya Taylor-Joy and Ana de Armas. But the one with the strongest newcomer status would be Rachel Zegler, depending on how good West Side Story is.
Everything that will happen in the Oscar race with every category, including Best Actress, will depend on Shit Storm Season. It’s like Hurricane Season – you have to keep a sharp eye on the gathering storms. Which of them will matter, what category they are. The Golden Globes, for instance, had a Category 5 level Shit Storm on their hands this year. There wasn’t much they could do except seek shelter and brace for impact. Now we are surveying the damage and they’re going to lose a year of their influential telecast.
Whether or not you think the Shit Storms are valid or unavoidable or whatever else, there is no denying what they are and how they impact the Oscar race. Most people don’t feel comfortable criticizing the gathering storms so they either stay quiet or they fight alongside them because we know that cancelling the Golden Globes, adding new members of color is going to fix racism in Hollywood. To me, it is misplaced and punishes the wrong people but no one is asking me. And they shouldn’t ask me. I am but a mere cog in the machine.
Each of the performers attached to films that become debris in fast moving powerful Shit Storms such that their trajectory can be disrupted. That has always been true but it’s especially true now. The Ellie Kemper thing is a good example of that. Anything ever done in the past, any movie ever made, any star or director anyone worked with will become a struggle session to approve or deny their status. Doesn’t that sound fun?
There is always the chance that people stop paying attention to Twitter. Maybe this year contenders will be free to compete on their performances alone. I guess we’ll have to wait and see. No Oscar Watcher following along so far, however, would believe that we can predict this race or any other without also anticipating Shit Storms and damage control.
So far, the skies look pretty clear. The ocean looks relatively calm. That’s the good news.
This is how Erik ranks his early predictions for Best Actress:
1. Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
2. Lady Gaga – House of Gucci (MGM/UA)
3. Jennifer Hudson – Respect (MGM)
4. Rachel Zegler – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
5. Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24)
6. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
7. Margot Robbie – Untitled David O. Russell aka Canterbury Glass (20th Century Studios)
8. Halle Berry – Bruised (Netflix)
9. Marion Cotillard – Annette (Amazon Studios)
10. Ana de Armas – Blonde (Netflix)
It is too early to call, as no one has seen any of these yet. Erik is quite bullish on Nightmare Alley and has been for some time. I guess if you put Searchlight together with Bradley Cooper and Guillermo Del Toro you can’t lose. While I think this movie is likely to be great, my guess is that audiences will be in need of something uplifting in 2022. That would have more impact on Best Picture, not Best Actress. So it’s theoretically possible Blanchett could win. She’s always great. But she’d be winning her second Oscar, which is slightly more of a hurdle than someone winning their first.
This past year was extremely rare in that Best Picture and Best Actress were locked. That hadn’t happened since 2004 with Hilary Swank and Million Dollar Baby.
Best Actress, at the moment, could go to anyone and in any direction. Still, this would be my rankings:
- Jennifer Hudson – Respect
- Rachel Zegler — West Side Story
- Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth
- Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley
- Ana de Armas – Blonde
- Emelia Jones – CODA
- Jessica Chastain — in either Tammy Faye or The Good Nurse
- Jennifer Lawrence — Red, White and Water
- Nicole Kidman — Being the Ricardos
- Tessa Thompson — Passing
How about you, Oscar watchers?
I Recommend Caitriona Balfe for Belfest. Or Tessa Thompson for Passing , Frances McDonment.for the For the tragedy of Macbeth.
Jennifer Hudson is an extremely limited and one-note Actress. Her performance in Dreamgirls is one of the weakest wins in that category. Great singing performance, poor acting / dramatic performance. And all of her acting works after Dreamgirls only served to accentuate her limitations as an actress. A fine and ok Actress but way short of what it takes to deserve an Oscar. I don’t expect to be blown away by the acting as much as I expect to be by her singing. A Grammy perhaps but not an Oscar?
Jessica Chastain, The End. Next question!
So he had Dunst at 6th and she’s not in your top 10. You didn’t mention the film at all in your last piece. Do you have something against the film or Jane Campion?
Here comes the parade of actresses impersonating other celebrities. Women of color are especially reliant on biopics to get that nomination, and it sucks that they don’t get to play as many fictional creations.
Jennifer Hudson’s acting has never been very good. The win for Dream Girls was premature and was based solely on “And I’m Telling You I’m Not Going”. Get ready for the industry to slap their foreheads and bug out their eyes when she belts “Respect” or “Natural Woman”. I’m confidant that the Academy will be too leery this time around and she may not even get a nomination.
Jessica Chastain plus an ’80’s icon plus heavy eye makeup – people are already starting to freak out! All is going according to plan… There’s a stronger chance she’ll get a bunch of accolades because she can act her ass off. I think it’ll pale in comparison to the Jan Hooks version (SNL fame), but it won’t matter. People are already mentioning “overdue”, so there’s a chance that bogus narrative will factor in as well. Here we go.
How many of the recent acting Oscars from biopics from the past couple of decades will ever actually go on to be considered “one of the great wins”? Charlize Theron, perhaps? Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln, maybe? There is just such a sameness about all of them.
For me personally, the biopic acting winners that stand out are
*Obviously Charlize and Daniel* but also:
Marion Cotillard
Julia Roberts
Gary Oldman
Matthew Mcconaughey
Leo
Melissa Leo
Christian Bale
Cate Blanchett—Aviator
Colin Firth
Sean Penn
Jamie Foxx
Helen Mirren
Hillary Swank-Boys Don’t Cry
I prefer a good original character, but sometimes watching a transformation into a real life character can be just as dazzling. I remember watching The Fighter for the first time, and the very minute Christian Bale came on the screen I leaned over to my friend and said “he’s winning the Oscar”. The thing that would help the biopic genre is a fresh take on how to tell a story. Something that doesn’t feel like your regular boring journey through someones life. I don’t know how and really what I mean by that—but I will know it when I see it.
Marion Cotillard’s Oscar is arguably one of the best of all time, and definitely the best I’ve ever seen (w/ Lincoln, Monster, etc are included into consideration).
New films by Soderbergh and Shyamalan seem to kick-off a potentially great movie year; although so far 2021 has left me cold. I will try to make a comeback to the forums. I know I was kinda rude by not responding to some comments earlier in the year, but between Oscar Season 2020 being the worst ever (BY FARRRRRR) and coming back to the USA from spending some time in Argentina which left me, I believe, clinically depressed (I DID NOT WANT TO COME BACK)—I haven’t had the motivation to engage in any kind of online conversation. Now what’s left of the year ahead looks incredibly promising so I think I want to be back. Onward.
I’m sorry to hear about this Bryce. Hopefully things will start to look brighter
Saw “The Duke” trailer and… it really seems to capture the Ealing tone. Broadbent and Mirren have candy roles and probably may compete in the Comedy/Musical branch at the Globes, and I can see a “Full Monty” kind of potential to break through at Oscars. I don’t think it will be a brilliant film, based on the trailer, but I could see AMPAS bite the bait of a candid, harmless comedy with some social relevant background. Overall, if ellegible, I could see it as a (minor) player in Picture, Actor, Actress, Screenplay (Original? Adapted?), Costume, Production Design and maybe Make up and/or Score.
MASS is going to be a movie that critics can’t ignore in the acting categories for plimpton Isaac’s and dowd. Every critic/watcher have basically said that it’s acting at it finest. Masterclass performances
I expect Blanchett, Balfe and Comer in supporting, their films seem to be built around sole male leads.
As for lead my current purely hunch-based guess would be :
POTENTIAL FRONTRUNNERS
1. Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
2. Ana de Armas (Blonde)
3. Jennifer Hudson (Respect)
4. Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
5. Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
STRONG CONTENDERS
6. Lady Gaga (Gucci)
7. Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
8. Marion Cotillard (Annette)
9. Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)
10. Halle Berry (Bruised)
PROMISING DARK HORSES
11. Thomasin McKenzie (Last Night in Soho)
12. Florence Pugh (Don’t Worry, Darling)
13. Amanda Seyfried (A Mouthful of Air)
14. Jennifer Lawrence (Red, White and Water)
15. Sandra Bullock (Untitled Nora Fingscheidt Project)
16. Melissa Barrera (Carmen)
17. Penelope Cruz (Official Competition)
18. Melissa McCarthy (The Starling)
19. Tessa Thompson (Passing)
20. Emilia Jones (Coda)
MOST LIKELY TO COME OUT OF NOWHERE AND STILL TRIUMPH IN THE END
21. Carey Mulligan (She Said)
I know everyone is over the whole biopic awards contenders….but I’m kinda excited about Jennifer Hudson and Nicole Kidman to take on roles of giants in their respective industries. I was excited for Cate to take on Lucy but I’ll take Nicole, both have the acting chops for it. I’m not sure how I feel about Ana de Armas as Marilyn—the still doesn’t really do it for me, looks like she is just another Marilyn imposter—unlike Michelle Williams. I’m more excited about the potential for an Adrian Brody comeback in Blonde, than Ana. Jessica Chastain looks like there is potential in Tammy Faye but it’s hard to get over the accent and voice from the trailer. Lots of biopics in this year, but that’s okay. I think biopics reintroduced film goers to historical people and that can create an new wave of love for the people being portrayed—Like Lucille Ball, Marilyn Monroe, Aretha Franklin. Just hopefully some director can create a new way to tell a biopic so it doesn’t feel stale!
I am really tired of jukebox biopics. Didn’t Dewey Cox lay out how stale the genre is?
I will always insist that McDormand’s PGA win actually put her over the top in a tight Actress win. Her work behind the scenes clearly was admired by a guild who also votes in that category. I agree she probably isn’t winning this year, but she’s officially in Streep territory where even a competent performance gets a nomination.
Sight unseen I’m getting a big vibe about Belfast. The increasingly disintegrating peace deal in the real Northern Ireland I suspect provides Branagh an Oscar narrative.
As long as McDormand ISN’T in the nominee list, I’m good with that.
Okay idk whats going on but Best Actress better have a nomination for Emma Stone as Cruella. Hell a supporting Actress Nom for Emma Thompson should’nt be out of the question either.
Ana De Armas is love. I don’t think I can handle seeing her getting robbed even of a nomination once again especially if she turns in another fantastic turn after Knives Out and even Blade Runner 2049.
Or give the Oscar already to Jessica Chastain. She’s clearly killing it as expected of her in The Eyes Of Tammy Faye.
there are SOME Leading ladies that won Supporting, and are yet to win on Lead (a strong narrative)… Penelope Cruz might be the most notorious name on that list (she probably only lost for Volver, just because The Queen herself came her way, and she was the almost default winner for her next nom, Vicky Christina Barcelona)… however, what’s “Official Competition” and she may be stronger next year for “Madres Paralelas” anyways?
I think Hudson may have the stronger narrative to pull off a Leading win this year, proving she was not a one-hit-wonder… I am thinking of Hillary Swank (but she won her second for a Best Picture – ugh – winner)
Edit: it seems that “Madres Paralelas” might run for 2021 Awards season (September 10th release in Spain), and while from set pics Cruz looks more interesting in “Official Competition”, Rossy de Palma looks amazing in “Madres Paralelas”.
On paper, and on buzz, I’d say the names Blanchett, de Armas, Chastain and Hudson seem primed. But it’s a lonnnnngggg season.
The last three David O’Russell movies got 12 acting nominations out of which three won. So Margot Robbie has a good chance of making it in the nomination circle if the movie is good. Also this year again looks crowded for Best Actress. Tough for Macdormand to win a fourth Oscar and that too back to back.
You forgot about Joy.
Ugh, don’t remind us.
‘Joy’ was an enjoyable satire though for me ‘Three Kings’ and ‘American Hustle’ are his masterpieces..
Yes 12 nominations includes Joy. That makes four David O’Russell movies not three. The two actress races seem overcrowded if all the movies deliver.
The Good Nurse and Untitled Tom George Murder Mystery are slated for 2022, so I currently have:
Halle Berry – Bruised (Netflix)
Jennifer Hudson – Respect (MGM/Universal)
Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24)
Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water (A24)
Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)
But I would love to fit in Tessa Thompson for Passing, who is fantastic!