Most of us barely survived 2020. Of all of the things COVID took away, movie theaters have ranked up there as one of the worst casualties. How to get people to abandon fear and agree to sit inside a dark room for a couple of hours with other people, wearing masks the whole time. I have not been inside a movie theater since COVID hit. I don’t even remember the last time, that is how long it’s been. But I have long been a believer that to know movies, to really know them, is not to see them in an insulated cube of a screening room with people who are there to evaluate the movie. But to see them with ACTUAL AUDIENCES. They are not there to see the movie for free. They are not there to evaluate, critique and analyze and position, and judge. They are there to enjoy the movie.
Last night I paid $19, along with maybe 100 or so other people, to attend a real live movie theater in Burbank. I had this feeling that if I didn’t break the seal, if I didn’t end the fear of doing something I hadn’t done in over a year, maybe I never would. I drove the same road, I parked in the same parking garage. It wasn’t all the way full but it was full enough that it meant other people were out there too. I got into the elevator and I could not even remember which button took us to the lobby where the movie theater was. No one else could remember either. We all laughed nervously behind our masks.
I rode the escalator up the stairs and I went inside. I handed my printed-out ticket to the ticket taker and went to find my seat. I had already pre-selected my seat. I’m one of those truly annoying moviegoers who doesn’t really like sitting next to strangers. Friends are fine but if I don’t know you it is going to be a little nervous-making to sit right next to you. It was a mostly empty theater but I had gotten the best seat in the house. Front and center. Not all the way in the front but I prefer closer to farther away. If I want farther away I will stay home and watch my flat screen. No, I want to be swallowed up by the big screen. I want to be so close I can see everything.
Of course, moments later another moviegoer came in and of course had the seat to my right. This was awkward. Without pre-selected seats, he would have no doubt sat farther away. Social distancing for me means – you sit over there. Not because of COVID but because I am one of those weird moviegoers that likes the experience of watching a movie without the distraction of another person. You don’t want to have to deal with how they sit if they check their phone if they talk if they slowly but loudly dig in their crackly plastic whatever and pull out whatever and slowly bring it to their mouths and cronch cronch cronch. You don’t even want to know if they sigh or fall asleep or laugh at the wrong parts. Any one of these things can ruin a movie.
But here’s the thing. That was the OLD me. Stockholm Syndrome means I was now perfectly fine with said gentleman and said bag. And when the next two people came in and sat immediately to my left and I was sandwiched between them, I didn’t mind that either. I didn’t mind that they had buckets of popcorn and sodas and other items of food they were going to have to work through in the next two hours. They would talk occasionally – but most of the time it was about what was happening on screen.
As the movie began — Respect, starring the brilliant Jennifer Hudson — I found myself wanting to react to the movie, along with other people. They weren’t quite bobbing their heads to the singing like I was, they weren’t quite reacting to the crystal clear beauty and power of Hudson’s voice as she became Aretha Franklin – but it was close enough and I wasn’t going to complain about anything. Not when I was sitting in an actual movie theater with other people who had paid way too much money to sit there too.
That’s it, that’s the whole thing. That is why we have movie theaters. They are experiences onto themselves. I have had a year of just me and how I watch movies at home. It’s not the same. Movies command your attention. You can’t check Facebook or Twitter. You can’t look away. Well, of course, I guess some young people do, but mostly you are there for one reason.
I bring this up because watching Respect in a movie theater is going to be key to fully appreciating Jennifer Hudson’s performance. Sitting at home watching this movie will mean distractions, looking at your phone, maybe not sticking it out because it’s a longish movie that hits a lot of beats. Publicists are going to have to make sure people see it theatrically, which they certainly did for the film’s premiere. Actors will get how good Hudson is and the rest of the cast.
I will be writing up Respect separately but today let’s do Best Picture and how the other categories hang off of it. Anne Thompson’s theory that you build a Best Picture contender “branch by branch” is probably the most useful tool in figuring out which movies will do best. That’s because, even if actors dominate, each branch gets a vote on Best Picture.
What we’re looking for are movies with acting nominations, but preferably writing, directing, editing and at least one craft. Let’s look at last year’s lineup:
Nomadland – acting+, writing, directing, editing + crafts
Mank – acting, directing + crafts
Promising Young Woman – acting, writing, directing, editing
The Father – acting+, writing, editing + crafts
Judas and the Black Messiah – acting+, writing + crafts
Minari – acting+, writing, directing + crafts
Sound of Metal – acting, writing, sound, editing
Chicago 7 – acting, writing, editing + crafts
All of them having acting nominations, all acting winners are in Best Picture nominees. Only 4 out of the 5 directing nominees have corresponding Best Picture nominees. Only one out of the bunch doesn’t have a screenplay nomination. Acting + Writing matters a lot, clearly.
One thing to remember is that Best Picture is now expanded to ten. So voters aren’t going to be thinking FIVE as they have been since 2011. They’ll be thinking TEN. That is going to change how we see the race.
So let’s look at the two years where they had ten to see how this all works out.
2009
The Hurt Locker – acting, writing, directing, editing + crafts
An Education – acting, writing
District 9 – writing, editing + crafts
Precious – acting+, writing, directing, editing
Up – writing, animated feature + crafts
A Serious Man – writing
Avatar – directing, editing + crafts
Inglorious Basterds – acting+, writing, directing, editing + crafts
The Blind Side – acting+
Up in the Air – acting, writing, directing
2010
The King’s Speech – acting+, writing, directing+, editing + crafts
Black Swan – acting+, directing, editing + crafts
The Fighter – acting++, writing, directing, editing
The Social Network – acting, writing+, directing, editing+, + crafts
True Grit – acting, writing, directing + crafts
127 Hours – acting, writing + crafts
Inception – writing + crafts
The Kids Are All Right – Acting, writing
Toy Story 3 – writing, + crafts
Winter’s Bone – acting, writing
So basically, when I look at these I think – under the previous system of films between 5 and 10 nominees you tended to get films more concentrated in the core categories of acting, writing, directing, editing. Once you expand it out, that becomes less important. That’s just a general theory with not a lot to back it up. I’d have to go back through all of the years and I don’t have time to do that.
So — with that in mind, let’s look at what we have this week.
Here is what I think I know, though — lead with acting. In general, predict your Best Picture nominees around those you think will either win in the acting categories or get nominated.
Here is what Erik Anderson has for Best Picture right now:
- Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) ↔
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) ↔
3. House of Gucci (MGM/UA) ↔
4. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) ↑
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple) ↔
6. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) ↓
7. Belfast (Focus Features) ↑
8. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) ♦
9. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson aka Soggy Bottom (MGM/UA) ↔
10. Flee (NEON) ↔
So Best Actor might be Macbeth. Best Actress might be House of Gucci. But if Best Actress is Jennifer Hudson, Respect should be a Best Picture nominee. The supporting actors should also be represented. This is more true for Best Actor than for Best Actress but in general, your films should all, or most, have at least acting nominations. Flee is a fine prediction here because with ten you can go outside the demands of having acting, as we saw with District 9, Avatar, Up, etc. One or two, maybe even three films can have no acting. But writing? Pretty solid on that one.
And if we go to Gold Derby’s predictions graphs here are the strongest contenders in each category:
Best Picture – Nightmare Alley
Best Director – Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom
Best Actor – Denzel Washington, the Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Actress – Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Supporting Actress – Ann Dowd, Mass
Supporting Actor – Jesse Plemons, Power of the Dog
Screenplays: Power of the Dog, Soggy Bottom
So all of these films, including Mass, would have to have a Best Picture nomination. And potentially writing.
With that said, here are my predictions, such as they are:
Best Picture
West Side Story – Acting, Writing, Directing, Editing + plus crafts
In the Heights – Acting plus crafts.
Nightmare Alley – Acting, Writing, Directing, Editing + plus crafts
King Richard – Acting, maybe Editing, Maybe Writing
Soggy Bottom – Acting, Writing, Directing, maybe crafts
Dune – crafts for sure but beyond that, who knows.
Respect – Acting, maybe writing, maybe directing plus crafts
House of Gucci – Acting, writing, directing, maybe editing + crafts
The Last Duel – Acting, maybe writing, maybe directing + crafts
Other films on my radar:
Cyrano – acting
Belfast – writing or directing or acting
CODA – acting
Don’t Look Up – acting, or writing, or directing
Finch – acting
Tick, Tick … Boom! – acting
Last Night in Soho – directing
Being the Ricardos – acting, writing, maybe directing
Cry Macho – acting, directing, maybe writing
The Eyes of Tammy Faye – acting
Spencer – acting
Parallel Mothers – acting, writing, directing
The Card Counter – acting, writing, maybe directing
You get the idea.
If my acting predictions are Jennifer Hudson for Respect, Denzel Washington for The Tragedy of Macbeth — both of those films need to be on the Best Picture list. As for supporting, I still have no clue who will get into that lineup.
Obviously this is stupidly, pointlessly early but hey – we gotta do what we gotta do.
Finally, to SUM UP – acting + writing seem to be strong anchors when determining Best Picture. Directing still matters but not quite as much.
And last but not least, if you love movies, GO TO THE MOVIES. Pay to see them. Keep them alive. That’s the best way to make sure they don’t go away for good.
At this point, I want The Green Knight to tie the 14 Oscar nominations record. https://media4.giphy.com/media/VJNuWV7qqxEdbUDf9D/giphy.gif
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/12/disney-ceo-on-talent-compensation-after-scarlett-johansson-lawsuit.html
There the proof right HERE OF EARLY INDICATIONS OF HOW DISNEY IS FROM ALL ACCOUNTS IN THIS ARTICLE CLEARLY IN DAMAGE CONTROL..
big time BIG MOTHERFUKIN TIME! MAKE NO MISTAKE ABOUT IT…SCARLETT JOHANNSON IS ONE MOST REVERED RESPECTED ACTRESSES AND PROLIFIC AND IN DEMAND IN OUR TIME…SHE A POWERHOUSE!! SHE THE TYPE OF ACTRESS THE DISNEY SEEKS TO KEEP WELL IN THE PAST..THE TYPE THAT TOOK LIKES MANY DECADES AGO OF ICONIC ACTORS DAVID TOMLINSON, DICK VAN DYKE, AND OF COURSE JULIA ANDREWS…USING NO! EXPLOITING COVID AS JUSTIFICATION TO PICK APART AND JEOPARDISE CERTAIN ACTORS FUTURES FUTURES THAT ACTORS AND FILMMAKERS TRUST IN THE BIGGEST STUDIOS ESP IN LIKES OF DISNEY BE UNDER NO ILLUSSIONS EVERYONE THIS POST WAS 5 DAYS 5 FRICKIN DAYS AGO!!!
THERE A REASON WHY I EMPHASISING SHOUTING THIS IN CAPITALS IN 20 YRS PLUS I BEEN ON THIS SITE I NEVER NEVER SEEN MORE DESTRUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR TO DETERIMENT THAT HAS MASSIVE GARAGNTUAN EPIC POTENTIALLY FAR REACHING DEVASTATING IMPLICATIONS FOR PERCPETIONS OF HOW HOLLYWOOD IS SEEN OUTSIDE AND WITHIN…NOT SAYING IT HAPPEN I DONT WANT IT TO..BUT IF DISNEY MISMANAGE THIS LAWSUIT PENDING..AND COMBINED WITH WARNER BROS OUTRAGEOUS DISGUSTING AND VILE MISTREATMENT OF GREAT FILMMAKER OF OUR GENERATION ONE OF FINEST EVER IN CHRISTOPHER NOLAN…HOW BOTH THIS STUDIO’S CONDUCT THEMSELVES IF THEY DO NOT REEVALUATE AND ACCEPT THEY MISMANAGED AND COMMITED GROSS NEGLIGENCE OF ACTORS AND FILMMAKERS RIGHTS UNDER CONTRACT LAW..THEN HOLLYWOOD AND AWARDS SEASON WILL DISAPPEAR IN A GIGANTIC VOID IN PART OF THEIR OWN MAKING, ENABLING THE APPOINTMENTS OF FAR LEFTIST, AGENDA SELFISH PRO- TWITTERATI IN PART PERSONNEL IN HIGH OFFICE IN DISNEY AND WARNER BROS..
COULD WE BE LOOKING AT THE RECORRECTION AND DECONSTRUCTION / DESTRUCTION WIHIN OF TRADITIONAL BIG STUDIOS IF LIKES OF FOUNDATION STUDIOS OF DISNEY AND WARNER BROS ATTITUDE HOW THEY TREAT MOST RESPECTED DESERVEDLY SO OF FILMMAKERS AND ACTORS ?
I MEAN FOR FUK SAKE I ABSOLUTELY WE ALL SHOULD BE TOTALLY LIVID WITH HOW NOLAN FORMERLY AT WARNER BROS AND JOHANSSON FORMERLY AT DISNEY HAVE BEEN TREATED LIKE A PIECE OF FUKIN DOG SHIT WHY BE POLITE IN HOW ONE EXPRESSES THIS I WE ALL SHOULD BE FILTHY PISSED OFF WITH A CAPITAL P AT DISNEY AND WARNER BROS CONTEMPTUOUS WAYS THIS ACTIONS HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE A BLACK BLACK DAY IN MODERN HISTORY OF HOLLYWOOD FILM STUDIOS EXISTENCE DONT ANY OF YOU PLAY DOWN THE FAR REACHING IMPLICATIONS OF THE JOHSANSSON LAWSUIT !
ALL THIS COULD BEEN AVOIDED IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE PIG HEADED SELF RIGHTEOUS ARROGANCE AND SELFISHNESS AND SENSE OF SELF ENTITLEMENT OF BOTH NEW WARNER BROS CEO AND DISNEY CEO-
“Parallel Mothers” new trailer (the first actual trailer, not a teaser) is out. Some thoughts…
Cruz seems to be the clear lead. Showy role. Really showy and dramatic.
de Palma looks fantastic but she’s barely in the trailer, so maybe she has a minor role, as usual with Almodóvar, the female supporting cast is huge and full of possibilities.
The story suggested is probably extremely moving. “All about my mother” kind of.
Overall, it looks like a slam dunk. Can’t wait to actually see it.
Does nobody care that Elements within 2 foundation Hollywood studios one in Warner Bros that been particularly prominent and dominant force in awards season since oscars early years, the other that modernised revolutionised diversification in art form post WWII at dawn of modern era in Disney..
So i put URGENT ONUS ON ALL OF YOU who truly care bout welfare and manner in which these 2 foundation hollywood studios treat their peers IN WAKE OF DISMISSAL AND I BELIEVE DISCRIMINATION AND CONTROLLING, SELFISH AGENDA OF 2 ACTRESSES IN DISNEY, AND 2 GIFTED FILMMAKERS FORMERLY PART OF WARNER BROS DONT ANY OF YOU BELIEVE WE NEED TO START TO DISCUSS THE MASSIVE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS FOR AWARDS SEASON?
…AND ARE WE LOOKING MAYBE NOT THIS SEASON BUT IN FUTURE ONES THE EMERGING DOMINANCE OF THE SOCIOLOGICAL IDIOLOGICAL AGENDA HAVING A STRANGLEHOLD ON OUTCOME OF FUTURE OSCAR NOMINEES DRIVEN FROM THE CANCER WITHIN THE CORPORATE BOARDS WHO ARE ATTEMPTING TO RAM THEIR AGENDA TO OVERULE THE VERY PPLE WHO ARE MEMBERS OF THE GUILDS AND THE ACADEMY THE FILMMAKER AND ACTING MEMBERSHIP THEMSELVES?
I really think from now on when we talk about oscar contenders this MUST be URGENTY part of the debate…for anyone who be so naive to dismiss the fact of Scarlett Johansson of all actresses once contracted to Disney..or to dismiss the derailment of Christopher Nolan easily one most bold innovative filmmakers of modern era… once contracted to Warner is just a drop in the ocean i can assure you THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING SADLY DONT YOU THINK THAT GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE TOXIC, VENOMOUS POLITICS PERVADING CREEPING LIKE AN UNWANTED STALKER INTO 2 ONCE HOLY THAN THOU FOUNDATION HOLLYWOOD STUDIOS THAT IF OSCAR SEASON HAD ANY GUTS ANY TRADIYIONAL PRINCIPLES REMAINING THEY WOULD NOT ENABLE CERTAIN STUDIOS WHO ILL TREATED SOME ACADEMY MEMBERS WELL DISREGARD THEIR BID TO BE OSCAR NOMINATED? MAYBE IT TIME FOR THE ACADEMY TO SEND A LOUD CLEAR WARNING IN THEIR WAY TO DENOUMCE THIS DISGRACEFUL SICK BEHAVIOUR BEHIND SCENES BY DISNEY AND WARNER BROS AND SIDELINE THEM FROM UPCOMING OSCAR RACES ?
Forgive me for looking at the big picture beyond upcoming almost certaint to be compromised oscar race..especially IF Warner Bros and Disney dominate again as far getting nominated best picture or animated feature- esp for Disney.
I know your talking in this article bout how much you miss the big screen Sasha, sure we all do and variables to your trademark formulas of well i think anyway ‘ get ahead of ourselves hyper speculation of this years upcoming oscar race’ (lets face it it might be prudent again of OScars and awards season to be postponed until US gets the delta outbreak which proven to challenge severelyt the benefits of getting double shot of vaccine – pple after all NO GUARANTEE even after double shot to not get the far more brutally virulent Delta Covid Strain).. with this in mind..
I question the wisdom of OScar trying to force feed us ANOTHER compromised in standard, vision and creativity, and boldness and originality – like last few years imparticularly ESPECIALLY LAST YEAR oscar season.
Too much unpredictability cos of Delta strain nobody should be under any illussions all experts say they concerned we may globally have rushed the vaccines- clearly they meeting their match in Delta strain..clearly pple still get very sick from Delta.
AWARDS SEASON THEREFORE ONLY HAVE A BATS CHANCE IN HELL A SLIVERS CHANCE OF REGAINING PUBLIC RESPECTABILITY IF THEY FOR ONCE STOP THINKING BOUT THEIR SEMINAL PSEUDO- PRO- SOCIOLOGICAL IDIOLOGICAL SELFISH AGENDA REFLECTED THROUGH WEAKER THAN NECESSARY BEST PICTURE WINNERS SINCE LAST CREDIBLE ONE IN THE GREEN BOOK TRUTHFULLY- AND THINK BOUT THE BROADER BIGGER PICTURE HERE.. I DONT GET THE ACUTE CHOKEHOLD OF SELF INFLICYTED FEAR OR PARANOIA IF OSCAR DOESN’T KEEP TO SCHEDULE? WHY NOT DELAY TILL END OF YEAR? MIGHT BE BETTER OUTCOME IN BEST PICTURE CONTENDERS AND EVENTUAL WINNERS FOR BOTH THE FILM GOING PUBLIC AND OSCARS SINKING REP EY?
But incredibly hard to believe as it is, there is something far to big to ignore that have profound negative, most damaging implications for future fate of the film industry as a whole within Hollywood and hence for Oscars too..i restate and emphasise:
ALL THAT WILL REMAIN IS A SHELL OF ITSELF from it Hollywoods once former glory..UNLESS HOLLYWOOD CREATE A LEGAL ORGANISATION TO REINFORCE BOTH CONTRACTUAL ACTORS RIGHTS NOT BE ABUSED TAKEN FOR GRANTED BY ORGANISATIONS AND THERE IS A CONFORMITY IMPOSED BY AUTHORITIES IN NEW ORGANISATION WITHIN HOLLYWOOD TO REJECT EXTREME SOCIALIST OR RACIALLY MOTIVATED AGENDAS… AND TO CONFORM FILM STUDIO BOARDS WHERE THEY BOUGHT OUT BY CORPORATE WORLD… THAT FREEDOM OF ARTISTIC EXPRESSION AND TOLERANCE TO GREATER CREATIVE LEVERAGE FOR BOTH ACTORS AND FILMMAKERS IS FRONT OF MIND WHEN CONSIDERING PROJECTS TO APPROVE OF DONT YOU THINK?
This is why i call on awards season and esp oscars and the guilds to Boycott Warner Bros and Disney films– they damn will fukin well should for their own sake..take a stand against the infiltration, distortion and compromised artistic integrity flagging and deterioriating before our eyes…. in wake of unjust unfair i reckon illegal sacking in Disney of both Carano- and Johnasson people must not miss the profound truth of matter that both these Actresses didnt choose to leave they were given no choice…they believed in their contractual legal rights and Disney abused that with Johansson in Black Widow and i we should very much fear the outlook for The Mandalorian..i cannot we should all be alarmed departure these 2 actresses friomn Disney is the FAULT ENTIRELY OF THE CONTROLLING PSEUDO- PATHOLOGICALLY INSANE POLITICAL AGENDA OF THE STUDIOS COPRORATISED BOARDS IT A DISGRACE AND WE SHOULD ALL BE VERY CONCERNED OF DISNEYS PATH
.. as we all should Warner Bros- who used diff tactics bugt similar broadly speaking to manipulate the system..when new deluded appointed CEO of Warner Bros took over they effectively through gaming the system exploited their power to force Snyder and Nolan out the door,.
BETWEEN THESE 4 2 ACTRESSES AND 2 FILMMAKERS BETWEEN 2 JUGGERNAUT STUDIOS THAT DOMINATED HOLLYWOOD AND OSCAR WINNERS FOR MANY MANY DECADES…IN RANGE OF CATEGORIES BEEN PROMINENT IN AWARDS SEASON..THEIR ACTIONS IF AWARDS SEASON WANTS TO REGAIN PUBLIC RESPECTABILITY AND TAKE A STAND FOR TRUE ESENCE OF RIGHT OF ACTORS AND FILMMAKERS TO EXCERCISE CREATIVE FREEDOM AND THEIR CONTRACTUAL AGREEMENTS TO BE HONORED NOT ABUSED LIKE DISNEY AND WARNER BROS HAVE DONE THEN YOU BE SURE IT ONLY BE POWERFUL MSG IN VERY UNLIKELY EVENT THAT AWARDS SEASON AND OSCARS TAKE A STAND FOR VERY MEMBERS THAT SHAPE FILMS..RIGHT NOW OSCAR AND AWARDS SEASON IS BEING HIT ON 2 WAR FRONTS- ONE FROM TWITTERATI SOCIOPATHS AND THE OTHER FROM THE LEFTIST CONFORMIST CORPORATE MONEY HUNGRY BOARDS THIS IS A DIRE DIRE!! SCENARIO FOR OUTLOOK FOR AWARDS SEASON WHAT YOU THINK? OUTLOOK IS BLEAK I BEEN RIGHT BEFORE WITH OUTCOMES AND PERCEPTIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF PAST HALF BAKED AWARDS SEASON THOUGHTS?
Vibes…
Coda is going to be huge. Different to Sound of Metal, and Children of a Lesser God was eons ago.
House of Gucci is going to be a Razzie contender, b.o. and critical bomb. Later, a cult film.
Parallel Mothers is going to suffer from the big ensemble, dilluting Cruz’s chances… still, might help Cruz if Official Competition collects raves – her character seems showier there. If that one is a critical hit, I’d say Banderas may also score a nom. He seems to show off his charm, in the trailer.
Fahardi is being overestimated by pundits. He won 2 Oscars already (although, not personal wins), his film could be a critical hit, but let’s remember what happened to “Everybody Knows”, which was excellent, and with 2 Oscar winners as stars (Cruz should have been nominated for that performance, by the way).
The French Dispatch… I don’t think we have another “Grand Budapest Hotel” in our hands, so some technical noms and that’s it.
Mass might be big on nominations if critics support it.
Respect is going nowhere beyond costume and maybe Actress.
Dinklage is the frontrunner for Best Actor and Will Smith is close second. Both their films can get into the Best Picture line up…
The Whale seems going 2022, as Blonde.. however, I think that if both are 2021, watch out for Fraser and de Armas as nominees and huge threats for the win.
Lin-Manuel Miranda exhaustation: Encanto, Vivo (**, did yawn many times), In the Heights and Tick Tick Boom… he will probably win Best Song for any of these films, but really, it’s just too much. I can see him completely overlooked on EVERY aspect. I’d say that his best chance is Animated Feature (along Song), for Encanto.
I’m curious, why do you think Official Competition will be internationally successful at all? Like it or not, most foreign language films aren’t, and the ones that are are usually very high profile in advance.
it really looks interesting, from the trailer. I think it looks showier – in performances – than Parallel Mothers, and that may be an advantage…
I didn’t know about its existence till I saw it commented here somewhere. Looked it up at IMDB and watched the trailer. Cruz and Banderas starring in showy roles, in a likely to be satire? It’ll raise interest, undoubtfully, both at the Festival circuit and also at the critics… if it is good – which actually LOOKS from the trailer alone – then it’ll be buzzed, regardless of being foreign language.
I’m skeptical of “Tick Tick Boom”‘s chances. I know it’s Andrew Garfield and Lin-Manuel Miranda (and Jonathan Larson…which didn’t help “Rent” at all), but I’m very familiar with this musical and it’s a smaller piece. I personally love it (or my past 20 something theatre major loves it, ha!), but it’s not a big showy piece. Honestly, Vanessa Hudgens has the best song/number/moment in the musical. Interested to see how they flesh it out as the musical itself is written for only 3 actors who play multiple roles.
After looking over Gold Derby “experts” predictions I have some questions:
1. I see mixed predictions on Ridley’s two movies. Most people seem to be going by way of HOG instead of TLD for picture and director. Anyone think he can get both pictures nominated? Better yet, anyone think he can get double director nominations? I think everyone is overly excited for HOG, but to me that seems like that’s more so due to the hype of GAGA. TLD to me seems like it is being really underestimated—even in the acting categories. I could be wrong.
2. Jennifer Hudson got a huge surge, almost all the experts are predicting her. If she is going to be a strong contender, the film needs to get in for something. What might that be? If any? If the film gets no other nominations, that may really be the downfall.
3. Not even one expert is considering Halle Berry a contender!? Kinda shocking. Everyone seems to be discussing her efforts and what she went through for the movie, so I’m a little surprised not one expert is even considering her as a nominee.
4. I also feel like people are underestimating The French Dispatch, I just have this feeling. Wes Anderson, as polarizing as his films may be, he is well respected and has a unique eye. I can’t seem him going unrewarded in something—at least a screenplay win? I just can’t see him getting nothing.
5. Am I missing something with Anne Dowd and Richard Jenkins in the supporting race? They are the two most favored to win/nominated in those categories. I haven’t even heard anything about Richard and very little about Anne.
6. Also someone mentioned this recently, but it sorta feels like no one knows anything right now, and usually by this time people have good hunches on what’s to come. Something feels sorta off, not sure what it is?
7. Also no one is considering Nicole or Javier or even Peter Dinklage? Hhhmmmm I’m a little surprised.
I think neither Ridley Scott films getting in is more likely than both getting in. And he’s absolutely not getting double nommed for directing. They even snubbed him for The Martian!
I don’t think so either about the double directing nominations. It’s something to consider though, if somehow both films become widely loved and get a huge following. Though it’s hard to see TLD getting the amount of love that HOG has already without anyone seeing it.
It will be interesting to see how these two movies play out and it could even lead to Ridley canceling himself out. I’m not sure how Soderbergh pulled it off.
I don’t understand why people are so bullish on House of Gucci. The trailer seems extremely silly so if that’s the tone the movie’s going for, I really don’t see the Academy going for it. And if it’s not going for the tone of the trailer, the most obvious route seems to be another movie that’s just a grumpy Scott muttering “rich people are disgusting” like All the Money in the World, which might be a good movie but I feel a lot of people in the industry and among the pundits would be disappointed because it wouldn’t be fun and energetic.
I think Phantom said this on another post but he mentioned HOG gave him American Hustle vibes—style over substance. I see that and feel that too. BUT this may be the case for HOG too, I enjoyed the performances of American Hustle even though the film itself was a mess. I think people loved the performances of American Hustle and that’s how it got all the love it received, and that very well may be the same situation that could play out with HOG. Both films have that over the top costumey feel with a crazy story line and a powerfully loved and respected cast.
Just wondering. It’s my understanding that actors can’t be double nominated in the same category. That is, if you finish in the top 5 in, say, Best Actor, for two of your performances, the performance with the lower vote total is set aside, and the actor whose vote total put him in the 6th position is moved up to the 5th spot.
That’s my understanding, at any rate. If it’s correct, is the same process followed for directors?
Sammy brought up the Soderbergh year. I’m not sure if it has happened before that, but it definitely hasn’t happened since.
I mean most directors struggle to get one movie done in one year let alone two which is why it rarely ever happens. But it’s worth discussing because many people believe Ridley is due and now he’s got two buzzed films—which could either work in his favor or cancel each other out!
Soderbergh is not the first director to achieve this. Michael Curtiz did it in 1938.
The rule is that anybody but actors can receive two nominations (or more even) in the same category.
On acting: If this happens, the second performance will be ignored and the votes will be redistributed to the second/third place contenders.
It’s also a rule that if an actor receives votes in both lead and supporting for the same performance, the nomination will be in the category in which the nominee has received bigger support.
Thanks Sontag Glick for this clarification.
Thanks Sontag! I didn’t know that bit of info about the acting categories, especially the part about a performance being both a contender in supporting vs leading.
So essentially is this what happened with Kate Winslet for The Reader? That was my first Oscars ceremony and the first time I followed any of the awards and I remember being shocked she got in for lead with the performance that she was running the table with in supporting. I wonder why the academy went for lead over supporting? Was she trying to campaign for lead?
1. Honestly I have much more faith in The Last Duel than in House of Gucci. We’ll know soon enough about former, it has an out of competition slot at the Venice Film Festival.
2. I expect Jennifer Hudson to stay in the top5 throughout the season but considering how early her film was released and how many highly anticipated “icon” performances are still on the way this season, I think she will be #4-5 in the end with the potential winner coming from the Chastain-Stewart-Zegler trio. Especially if one of the three gets a BP nod. BD, too ? Case closed.
3. Halle Berry is very under the radar because her film was only confirmed for the 2021 calendar (November 24) a few days ago. Sure, the film may not turn out as well as hoped, but I think she will be at least a top10 contender in the end regardless. Whether she can make top5, will come down to how much acclaim her competition can garner and how well-received BRUISED as a film will be.
4. Not getting a passionate vibe from most people who have seen THE FRENCH DISPATCH, respect, yes, passion, no. I think it will be most likely enough for a lot of nominations and only a few tech wins.
5. MASS had a lot of buzz after its Sundance premiere, then it was announced all four actors will compete in supporting, so it will be an interesting campaign for sure. Will they just cancel each other out OR will the film have enough fans to give career-first nominations to all four of them (Jason Isaacs and Martha Plimpton being the other two).
6. Nobody knows anything just yet. BUT we will have a pretty good picture of what’s up with this season in roughly a month, by then Venice + Telluride + Toronto will have wrapped and we will have early critical consensus for most presumed Oscar contenders this season.
7. There is bad online buzz around Kidman / Bardem because they dare not to look like Lucy and Desi but if the Sorkin script works as well as a Sorkin script should, I expect them to be contenders, too. Both actors are very skilled and with a great script, are always great, too. Peter Dinklage, I am very much rooting for, and for his film CYRANO, too. Joe Wright should have gotten at least 1 BD nomination for his literary trilogy and frankly considering fucking David O. Russell got 3 for arguably mediocre fare, I think 1 for Wright is still asking very little.
I just want Cyrano to be so good. I would love for Peter to come in and be a huge contender for the win not just a nomination.
I also want Nicole and Javier to be so good and do Lucy and Desi justice just because of how much I love Lucille Ball.
You didn’t mentioned Richard Jenkins—is he really that good? Has his movie been seen? Why is everyone putting him in the number 1 spot?
I think Wes should be top contender in at least screenplay.
I have no doubt that Kidman and Bardem are among the very best actors – I’d say acting legends – at work, and I can only dream what both of them could do with Sorkin’s dialogues. My only worry is that Sorkin is also directing, and I don’t think that is exactly his strongest point by any means. But to me, it’s a no brainer that both Kidman and Bardem are, beforehand, among the shortlist of candidates for the win, for this project, if any good. Both of them could potentionally win it.
Just imagine Cruz and Bardem being nominated for Lead, the same year… it’s a longshot that it will happen, but both are in the race with two strong roles.
I wholeheartedly wish Riley Keough’s ferocious, no-holds-barred, fearless performance in Zola as Stephani earns her what feels already like a much overdue first Oscar nomination. The risque, arthouse nature of the project might probably push her at best at an Independent Spirit Awards nomination for Best Supporting actress (like it happened five years ago with her tremendous turn in American Honey) but honestly her turn in Janicza Bravo’s film as a true nightmare of a character is worthy of major awards attention to say the least. It’s a shame performances as daring and from actors as constantly fascinating as Riley go unnoticed from AMPAS. The same goes for Colman Domingo’s terrific work as well and obviously the amazing Taylour Paige.
It’s just that Riley tackles such a risky part and has displayed such a ridiculously impressive range as an actress over the last decade that I’d love to see her score some big awards love. She’d be deserving and then some.
Loved the movie and she was my favorite part!
She’s simply astonishing. Undoubtedly one of the most fascinating actresses of her generation. And yep, the movie was all around incredible.
I’m mostly rooting for Domingo, while Paige is my only favorite female leading turn out of the 57 new releases I’ve seen (as of this comment).
Colman was fantastic. Adore him in anything. And Taylour Paige is definitely one to watch in the future. But Riley completely stoke the film for me in a role that could easily turn out as a caricature. She never fails to impress me, especially in super dark and challenging stuff.
Arguably so, but it just doesn’t sit well with me to shine a spotlight on Keough’s turn in that film. It’s like what Roger Ebert harshly thought of Isabella Rossellini in Blue Velvet, but it actually applies here and more. I absolutely pity Keough’s character to the point that I don’t want to remember what happens to her beyond, in Zola’s terse words, “They started f*ckin’, it was gross.”
Well her character is the definition of white trash full on with baby hairs and a “blaccent” so extreme that one rolls their eyes hearing her talk.
She kills as far as I’m concerned a super tricky part while suggesting depth and layers not even apparent on the script or the original story.
I get your point, I hope mine comes across as well. She’s a character one might be disgusted of and naturally feel pity about and never wanna think of anymore but that’s the point. Her character’s behavior and her entire persona is gross to say the least. That doesn’t mean the script doesn’t paint the character the way it should and the actress doesn’t slay in a role that could come across as extremely one note.
Coda is a really great film.
I really liked it. As far as the filmmaking / storytelling goes, it was rather safe and formulaic, but the refreshingly original POV is something I have never seen on film before, and the performances were also universally strong.
I don’t know about anything else (the film is entertaining, at times hilarious and heartbreaking; but in the end conventional), but Emilia Jones is its heart. She should be at least in the conversation for best actress.
YES! I’ve been lucky enough to see 15 movies in theaters since the pandemic started, and it’s been a joyous, glorious experience every time. I will never take the cinema for granted. Even though I have subscriptions to Prime, HBO Max, and AppleTV+, I have paid, and will continue to pay, to see movies in theaters if they’re playing near me, even though they are available on those streaming services (Annette, CODA, and Dune, to name a few). If it’s financially within your means, I encourage others to do the same. We have a duty as cinephiles to keep theaters afloat. I firmly believe society is better when citizens are able to congregate at the cinema and share collective experiences of art and storytelling. At its best, it generates empathy, wonder, imagination, and it teaches us and inspires us. And, as Sasha points out, it’s just the optimal way to watch a film.
Movies I’ve seen in theaters since March 2020 (8 month hiatus for me personally):
Tenet
The Dissident
Promising Young Woman
Judas and the Black Messiah
News of the World
Nomadland
Land
A Quiet Place Part II
Zola
Roadrunner
Pig
Settlers
Stillwater
The Green Knight
Annette
Crossing my fingers that theaters stay open this fall/winter with all of these variants causing problems!
My films in the theatres since the beginning of the first lockdown here have been (take note that the large amount of films is probably less irresponsible than it might seem simply because due to my studies having been online, I’ve mostly gone outside only to go to the store and to the movies and because these viewing experiences are from a 14 month period):
The Saddest Music in the World (Maddin)
The Umbrellas of Cherbourg (Demy)
Zodiac (Fincher)
Soy Cuba (Kalatozov)
Dark Waters (Haynes)
Do the Right Thing (Lee)
The Dead Zone (Cronenberg)
Magnolia (Anderson)
Blue Velvet (Lynch)
Diva (Beineix)
Sorcerer (Friedkin)
The Nun (Rivette)
Harry and Tonto (Mazursky)
Misery (Reiner)
Pretty in Pink (Deutch)
Tenet (Nolan)
Undine (Petzold)
Proxima (Winocour)
It Must Be Heaven (Suleiman)
The Personal History of David Copperfield (Ianucci)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Hittman)
Nomadland (Zhao)
This Is Not a Burial, It’s a Resurrection (Mosese)
DAU. Natasha (Oertel, Khrzhanovsky)
There Is No Evil (Rasoulof)
First Cow (Reichardt)
Bloody Nose, Empty Pockets (Ross, Ross)
The Woman Who Ran (Hong)
La Llorona (Bustamante)
Summer of ’85 (Ozon)
Vitalina Varela (Costa)
Memories of Murder (Bong)
About Endlessness (Andersson)
Babyteeth (Murphy)
Days (Tsai)
La Pointe-Courte (Varda)
On the Rocks (Coppola)
Yi Yi (Yang)
The End of Summer (Ozu)
The Enigma of Kaspar Hauser (Herzog)
Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore (Scorsese)
Pépé le Moko (Duvivier)
Sweet Charity (Fosse)
The Cool World (Clarke)
Mank (Fincher)
Palm Springs (Barbakow)
Sound of Metal (Marder)
Another Round (Vinterberg)
In the Heights (Chu)
Johnny Got His Gun (Trumbo)
The Young Girls of Rochefort (Demy)
Skyscraper (Clarke)
Monterey Pop (Pennebaker)
Murmur of the Heart (Malle)
A Quiet Place Part II (Krasinski)
Mama (Li)
Ornette: Made in America (Clarke)
Night and Fog in Japan (Oshima)
Black Widow (Shortland)
In the Mood for Love (Wong)
The Towering Inferno (Guillermin)
Old (Shyamalan)
Happy Together (Wong)
Wanda (Loden)
Where do you live, if you don’t mind me asking? And what theater shows all of those older films on the big screen?
It’s a combination of two theatres. Most of them were at the national cinematheque (here’s some of the stuff that’s playing there this Summer, although I think they only have on this site only the stuff that’s in English or with English subtitles: https://kinoregina.fi/in-english/ ) which plays 3 older movies a day 6 days a week for very cheap (6 euros, meaning about 7 dollars) so the films from there on my list are only a small sliver what plays there. The other theatre is the national cinematheque’s former theatre which is now run by a different organization, which mostly plays first-run movies but usually also has a retrospective or two running at most times and often just plays DCP copies of older movies randomly. There’s also a third retrospective theatre that mostly focuses on more obscure and trashy stuff but they’ve barely been open post-pandemic.
Wow, your national cinematheque has an amazing program!
Was that your first time watching Magnolia? What did you think?
No, it was maybe my third. When I was younger, I considered it to be a genuinely profound work of immense beauty and intelligence. However, on this viewing it felt like a work by a somewhat overly confident young director who decided to write the greatest film ever made (I don’t know that much about Anderson so I can’t say that this is what actually happened but that’s the vibe the movie has to me). It is so baroque and rambling that it kind of becomes ridiculous and the movie puts very simple character-based dramas through a tone that is so self-serious and self-aggrandizing that it almost floats out of this reality.
However, Anderson has two people who he’s clearly inspired by holding the movie down, Robert Altman and Jonathan Demme. Altman gives Anderson the tools to handle the structure so that Anderson can somehow tiptoe on the exact line between heightened expression and mere self-serving imagery and not fall into the latter while Demme gives him the emotional honesty and love of these characters that makes Magnolia completely sincere, which put together with the tone makes it feel like someone telling a story that they’re so enamoured by that they can’t contain it. In other words, it feels like Anderson tried to not only show off by making something that they hoped would be considered a canonically great film but that in the process of making it they themselves started to believe would be the greatest film ever made.
And what makes it a great film rather than utterly sincere folly is that while Anderson’s filmmaking exudes a type of confidence that with most directors would imply them reaching too far too soon in their career, Anderson is a talented enough filmmaker to actually make the movie they want to make. Anderson becomes a more skillful director later on (I don’t think a young Anderson could have necessarily made something like The Master or Inherent Vice, both of which are masterpieces) but I think Magnolia is awe-inspiring because of how far it reaches and how it through a strange road actually gets to where it’s going.
Good explanation. I agree
Magnolia is one of the greatest films of all time.
What keeps it from being THE greatest is editing. It’s too indulgent. I reckon at least half an hour off the policeman story alone would have made it better.
But it’s so powerful: the acting, the script, the score. Mesmerising.
Agreed. Cast is great – especially Melora Walters, Tom Cruise, PSH and Jason Robards. Weak link was, in my opinion, Juliane Moore who overact most of her part but not enough to call her performance bad or anything.
I think I disagree. It’s a film that in my opinion wills itself into greatness through its mass and its indulgences, not despite them. A slightly more restrained or slightly shorter version of the film would probably push the indulgences to the top and the film could easily become too much of a pretentious mess. Instead it is one of the most talented filmmakers of their generation giving their all to those indulgences while somehow managing to find in them the more simple and emotional stories they want to tell. That’s what I think makes it such an incredible experience
Impressive. I’m at 57 new releases myself, at least 50 of which were on the big screen (and that’s not including the 2020 holdovers, including 7 of the 8 Best Picture Oscar nominees).
I’ve even seen these re-releases on the big screen (thank you, Fathom Events):
—
The African Queen
Fargo
Indiana Jones & the Raiders of the Lost Ark
Jerry Maguire
Mission: Impossible
My Fair Lady
Stand by Me
Top Gun
Netflix scheduled Halle Berry’s directorial debut BRUISED for November 24th.
That does feel like a big vote of confidence as far as its potential awards prospects go.
That’s exciting. This category is always one that ignites hot opinions, it’s ramping up to be that way again. Lots of big names, comebacks, and potentially great performances!
Happy that Halle is finally back in this discussion for an Oscar nom, it’s been a long time!
Do you mean directing? Or acting?
I’m referring to the best actress category. It will be crazy this year!
Yeah, that one is quite something. Somehow oscarwatching circles always make it crazy even in years where it otherwise wouldn’t be!
Agreed. It’s rare when one of the supporting categories takes the drivers seat—like the year Monique and Christophe won, I think those performances were raved about and discussed more than lead that year.
Does Netflix have any obvious awards contenders apart from The Power of the Dog? If not, it doesn’t take that big of a vote of confidence to put another somewhat awards-friendly film in an awards-friendly calendar spot.
I think Don’t Look Up will be their main bid.
I think Clayton Davis said that tick, tick… Boom! has really good buzz
I don’t think I can deal with any more musicals.
How many musicals do we have in play this season?
In The Heights
Annette
Dear Evan Hansen
Tick, Tick…Boom!
West Side Story
Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, if we count that as “in play”.
I’m blind, I did not see this before I posted the same.
Everybody’s Talking About Jamie. Big studio adaptation of a hit West End show, originally a Fox film then Disney inherited it and they sold it to Amazon, it will be released globally in a few weeks. Embargo was lifted today, first reviews seem positive.
I’m just not sure this will land in Hollywood. I’ve seen it on the West End, and while it’s lovely, it’s very British and very small scale.
Considering the drought of quality musicals and the cornering of the genre of musical into dull Oscar prestige stuff in recent years, I’m willing to basically take as much as they’ve got
That’s sort of true, but I don’t get the feeling any of these is really going to be “high quality” apart from probably Carax (which isn’t going to be an Oscar player anyway, right?). I just can’t really stand mediocre, unimaginative adaptations of successful stage musicals. But maybe I’ll be wrong.
I don’t necessarily think that many of these will be great (Annette is the one I’m extremely hyped for, the others moderately interested) but I want the musical to be a genre that can be used in several ways, a tool as much as any other genre because it’s maybe favorite genre. So I hope that a large amount of musicals would maybe lead to some being big deals and thus opening up the notion of what Hollywood will make into a musical. For example, In the Heights is in my opinion not a particularly great movie but I hoped that it would be a big hit because it is still a musical as a piece of entertainment, despite its stage origins there was less of an air of prestige to it and that I think could have led to more of studios just making big musicals with the specific intention of being fun Summer entertainment rather than wheeling it out for the Oscar voters as something “serious” (although at the same time many reviews of Annette that I’ve read annoy me because they talk about musical genre in a way that makes it sound like “pleasant, hummable tunes and a bit of fun” and disappointed by how the score of that film fails to do that because of its repetetive nature, as if the movie musical should just be frivolous and as if Sparks didn’t literally write a song called My Baby’s Taking Me Home, which except for a brief narration only repeats those five words and on that album follow it up directly with a song about the repetetive voice you hear when waiting in line during a call)
I do love musicals in the theatre, and am moderately happy with watching film musicals as well, but what I would want studios to want to make is original film musicals. Give me another La La Land and I’ll buy 10 cinema tickets (as I pretty much did with that film). But taking a successful stage musical and just “adapting it” without really adapting it even, almost always ends in bland films which feel much weirder to hum along to than the originals in the theatres. Weirdly enough, I think Hooper’s Les Misérables is probably the best stage-to-screen musical conversion of recent years.
I don’t disagree (except maybe about La La Land being the movie to strive for, I’ve cooled on it considerably since 2016), I just hope (probably foolishly) that maybe studios could make the jump from adaptations to original film musicals if they treat the movie musical in general as something that’s very successful for them
Also, my probably fairly hot take about what’s the best stage-to-screen conversion musical in recent years is that Eastwood’s Jersey Boys is considerably better than anything else I can at least quickly think of because it’s decicedly a movie about why you can’t make that story into a movie musical
Passing and Don’t Look Up
Glad for Bruised and Halle (I hope it’s a deserved Oscars comeback) but I hate them after the Blonde / Ana De Armas situation. I want the film to be released within the year in all of its Andrew Dominik uncompromising cut glory. 🙂
I wouldn’t give up hope on BLONDE ending up on the 2021 calendar just yet. I know they were seriously considering pushing it but nothing was announced nor set in stone and with backlash from trying to harveyscissorhand Andrew Dominik’s cut, I think Netflix will back the fuck off in the end.
Here’s hoping to. Everything suggests another terrific turn for Ana and a truly fascinating approach to the life of a true cinematic icon. Aghhh, I really hope we see it this year as Dominik intended to and it proves itself to be as amazing as Joyce Carole Oates herself claims it is.
Some people from Movie Awards Redux said that, based on BLONDE script (maybe just one version of it) they had read, there’s no chance in hell that anyone from this movie will get nominated, let alone win Oscar. Not because it’s bad but because it’s totally Academy un-friendly.
Not sure if this is reliable information but if you’re Ana de Armas fan you should probably lower your expectations when it comes to her winning Oscar for this.
But uncensored cut (if it happens) will be certainly worth watching.
Oh no man, there’s no way I would expect Ana De Armas winning an Oscar for a film as mainstream-unfriendly, arthouse and dark as this one clearly is. It’s pretty apparent right now that the film is nowhere near the taste of the Academy and conventional, “safe”, big awards type of fare. Judging though from both the reactions of people who saw either footage of it or the film in its entirety (from industry people to the author of the book it’s based on herself) and Andrew Dominik’s and Ana De Armas’ fantastic track record so far I wished a presumably really strong film with an impressive central performance (from an actress who’s been killing it as of lately and ticks all the “it girl” boxes right now) could win overwhelming critical support which might put it at least on the radar of this year’s voters.
I wouldn’t have high hopes even if Dominik’s original cut was somehow released within this year but what looks like another fantastic turn from Ana (who I am indeed a huge fan of) could maybe attract the kind of support that at least may bring her her first nomination if there’s lot of passion towards her work. I wish Netflix releases the film in its uncut form regardless of anything anyway and doesn’t push a film that wrapped in 2019 in 2022.
I’m the same as you, man. I always prefer uncoventional biopics over standard clishe “from the craddle to the grave” safe Oscar baits. BLONDE was (and still is, hopefully) in my top 3 most anticipated films for 2021. Personally, I want my favorite movies to stand the test of time and end up on many “Best of the Decade” lists rather than short-lived Oscar glory- but- soon forgotten.
If not 2021 then we’ll wait for Ana in 2022, no problem. Only wish to see uncut version, I’ll probably boycot the other lol.
Oh I wouldn’t worry about “another cut”, that won’t happen, looking at Dominik’s filmography it becomes very obvious that he doesn’t compromise his vision for anyone, and most definitely not for a bunch of Netflix non-creatives.
It seems like Halle is making a play for the Oscar, all of a sudden it seems her movie and what she went through to make it is everywhere…..and with your release date info, it definitely is something to watch out for!
Again, I’m excited for her!
Halle Berry coming for a second Oscar (or just even get nominated) exactly 20 years after making history with her first one, would be pretty epic, mainly because the fact that she had to produce and direct herself in order to have another great role, pretty much proves that the industry let her down in epic fashion in these last 20 years.
Halle Berry coming for a second Oscar (or just even get nominated) exactly 20 years after making history with her first one, would be pretty epic, mainly because the fact that she had to produce and direct herself in order to have another great role, pretty much proves that the industry let her down in epic fashion in these last 20 years.
I don’t think the industry let her down in epic fashion in the last 20 years. At least not in more dramatic ways than they let down any female actor over 40.
The thing with Halle is that she had plenty of chances but she was very bad at picking her projects. Right after her Oscar win, she did several really awful movies. It usually takes two-three failures for Hollywood to move on.
Sure, she was in some bad movies post-Oscar but she can’t be blamed for that solely.
– In 2000 she established herself as a worthy leading lady when she won the Emmy-SAG-Golden Globe trifecta for her stunning star turn in the HBO production Introducing Dorothy Dandridge.
– In the same year she originated an instantly iconic franchise role that she would go on playing in a total of 4 films in the span of 15 years (X-Men).
– In 2002 she made history when she became the first woman of colour to win the Best Actress Oscar for Monster’s Ball, further solidifying her leading lady status.
– In the same year she played, once again, an instantly iconic franchise character, this time around a Bond girl (Die Another Day).
So this should have been the time when the Spielbergs, Scorseses, Soderberghs, Eastwoods started calling but nada.
I mean she clearly didn’t opt for Gothica and Catwoman because around the same time she was offered but opted out of Minority Report (Samantha Morton), The Terminal (Catherine Zeta-Jones), Gangs of New York (Cameron Diaz), The Departed (Vera Farmiga), Ocean’s Trilogy (Julia Roberts / Catherine Zeta Jones / Ellen Barkin) Mystic River (Laura Linney), Million Dollar Baby (Hilary Swank).
And that is why I firmly believe the industry let her down. Because all those characters were fictional thus could have been played by anyone regardless of skin colour and yet all 9 roles went to white actresses. And with the exception of Julia Roberts, not one of them had the commercial + awards success combo that Berry had.
Oscar nominee / not winner Morton got a Spielberg film. Supporting / not lead Oscar winner Zeta-Jones got a Spielberg film. Golden Globe / not Oscar nominee Diaz got a Scorsese film. Oscar nominee / not winner Linney got an Eastwood film. Lead Oscar winner / no franchise star Swank got an Eastwood film.
Yet still no prestige offers for Berry. With a lead Oscar. A lead Emmy. 2 lead SAG awards. And two successful film franchise roles.
And THAT is the problem there.
My hot mid-August prediction is that The French Dispatch will be a much bigger Oscar player than the consensus currently expects.
Same!!!! I think it’s flying under the radar perfectly.
I have been feeling that lately too…
I agree. It already has very solid reviews.
If anyone is looking for a good documentary to watch, I highly recommend Val. I wasn’t sure what to expect going into it, but this was not the self-serving, autobiographical home movie piece I thought it might be. It has a lot to say about art, acting, truth, trauma, fame, aging, and legacy. I was surprised by how endearing and emotionally resonant the film was. Just a beautiful, moving experience. My favorite documentary of the year so far, and one of my favorites overall. (Still so much to see, though!)
I saw it pop up on my prime suggestions and thought immediately that it looked self absorbed but decided to watch the trailer and then my thoughts changed completely on what the premise felt like it was about. So I may give it a try, especially after what you just said.
I never understood Val Kilmer, he kinda had this like big break and then went no where. I have often wondered what happened with him, I had no idea he had throat cancer or anything until I watch the trailer. Crazy!
Thanks for the recommendation!
You missed the likely BP winner ”Power of the Dog” ; after reading the reviews for the book at amazon it seems like it’s right up the ally of academy voters.. 1920s Montana; part Steinbeck, part Shakespeare, part Brokeback Mountain
Power of the Dog
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
One of these is going to win BP …. mark my words !
14th Auust 21
I’d bet on Power of the Dog. Nightmare Alley might be too dark for the Academy and House of Gucci a bit campy (judging on the trailer).
I have bet on Power of the Dog, a title from the book of psalms that apparently means beware the feral, evil nature of man; it’s a study in sociopathy and latent homosexuality
Social distancing for me means – you sit over there.I’m still social distancing even in the movie. I didn’t like pre-selected seats before – looking at a chart and picking a seat. But I can appreciate it now.
As for Respect, it was a much better movie than critics gave it a score. And it ended perfectly. Just a perfect ending. And Jennifer is soooo good in the movie. Unbelievable.
I don’t think the reviews will be an obstacle, its 63 MC is perfectly respectable and in the JUDY ballpark so clearly could be enough for a nomination and maybe even the win.
I think the biggest obstacle for Hudson, will be the early release date. This will be the season of icons and while being the first out of the gate has its own unique set of advantages, the big problem is she could be easily overshadowed by the late(r) entries that this season will include the likes of Jessica Chastain (Tammy Faye), Frances McDormand (Lady Macbeth), Lady Gaga (Lady Gucci), Kristen Stewart (Princess Diana), Nicole Kidman (Lucille Ball), Rachel Zegler (Maria), Melissa Barrera (Carmen).
If just one or two of those performances end up in critically acclaimed BP / BD contenders, then odds will be in the favour of those Actress contenders. Especially if one of them has never won an Oscar before (Chastain ? Stewart ? Zegler ?). Unlike Jennifer Hudson who won one for her first role.
I agree. I saw the previews for Tammy and Gucci and what I saw, oh boy it’s going to be a tough year for actresses. However, Jennifer may have one advantage: She’s a black female and Oboy it’s been a dry spell for black actresses. Plus AMZ owns MGM, and AMZ might push for her to win.
I also loved Mary J. Blige. I never saw her act before, and she’s a force!
You’re underestimating Nightmare Alley big time. Blanchett will likely go lead and she has the best female part in the story. If the movie is success with critics and Academy voters like it I don’t think actress of such pedigree will miss top 5.
On the other hand, it seems that you have a little bit much confidence in Being the Ricardos. Yeah, it’s Sorkin and AMPAS love him but Kidman and Bardem are SO miscast here that I really don’t know what to think of it.
I am not underestimating Nightmare Alley, I simply don’t expect it to have a contender in the Lead Actress category. It is a remake of a film that had a sole (male) lead, Blanchett’s character was distinctively supporting in the original. IF the character was expanded then of course I will agree that considering the director and her status, she will be a contender in lead but until her lead status had been confirmed, I am sticking to expecting her in the supporting race this season.
Also, I listed 7 actresses who will play icons just like Hudson this season. One of the 7 was Nicole Kidman who is playing Lucille Ball in a Sorkin scripted / directed film this year. I didn’t single her out nor added anything else, she was one of 7, so why you would think that I have “much confidence” in the film, that I don’t know. Sight unseen, precisely because of the pedigree that you cite for the similarly unseen Nightmare Alley, the film IS a contender. Until it isn’t. That’s all.
P.S. “SO miscast” tend to be regrettable words in this context. Many, MANY brilliant performances followed “SO miscast” declarations (Zellweger / Bridget Jones, Craig / Bond come to mind). And considering the collective body of work of Kidman and Bardem, I have no reason to doubt their ability to deliver something special with these roles. Even if they dare not to look exactly like Lucy and Desi.
Eric Anderson said that based on some insider information (not 100% reliable, of course) they will campaign Blanchett in lead category. Maybe to make enough room for Collette and Mara in supporting?
Anyway, Collette will be dominant female character in 1st half and Blanchett in the 2nd half of the movie. Mara is in both but her role just isn’t “showy” enough like the other two.
If the movie is success, I wouldn’t bet against Dafoe and Jenkins in Supporting Actor category either. Jenkins has really good scene near the end.
I have no doubt that Nightmare Alley will be great, Del Toro doesn’t really miss, and I also love Blanchett, always have, one of the all time greats, but I don’t think it will be a successful campaign if they place her in lead for a role that doesn’t carry the story. The lead race will be full of headliners playing icons, as brilliant as Blanchett is, I don’t see her making the cut with a role that is barely in the first half of the film. We’ll see. Still early days.
When Denzel Washington and Halle Berry won neither movie had a BP nomination. But then there were only five nominations.
I wonder how close they were at a shot for a BP nom….Monsters Ball got in for screenplay, so I’m sure it was in the realm of possibilities? Training Day only got in for acting, so probably not…
With 10 fixed nominations maybe Mullholland Drive, Black Hawk Down, Monster’s Ball, The Royal Tenenbaums, get added.
Or Monster’s Inc or Shrek even.
I just love this article.
The movies for me have been a little different this year, not just because I couldn’t go see them….but more so because there weren’t a lot of great offerings and trying to stay away from “darker” films that would negatively effect my mental health. It was difficult. So I immersed myself in classic feel good movies and TV shows, and I loved that. I got to introduce my wife and kids to some serious throwbacks that I probably wouldn’t have thought to show them, had I not had the issues I’ve faced. Silver lining, for sure.
I’m hoping that my first movie back will be Respect! Cinemas have been open for awhile around here, but I haven’t gone back more so because it’s difficult to find something I want to see and take the kids to—not really because of Covid. It would be funny to have the last movie I saw in theatres, Judy, and the first one since the fall, be Respect. We will see if I can arrange a date night!
Love all you, movie family! Stay safe and support your theatres when you can and feel ready!
Even last year I felt that the theatre was a safe place for me. Maybe I can´t think of a movie theatre doing any harm to me… 😀 But aside, they have an excellent hygiene concept including fresh air vent.
That said, I totally agree about the movie theatre (and the big screen) being the perfect place to watch a film and immerse into it. Last week I met a friend for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic (he was very anxious about it and didn´t wanna see anyone outside his family until he received full vaccination). The last time I saw him was when we saw “Little Women”, this time our reunion was – of course – again in a movie theatre: “The Green Knight”. A beautiful film that seems to be running under the radar – this one is certainly worth a watch and the best way to see it is in the theatre.
As someone who works in the industry, I understand and appreciate you’re call for people to go back to theaters. There are few things I would love more than to sit in a theater being immersed in a film. But, as a voice many people listen to in film, I implore you to FIRST encourage people to get vaccinated and SECOND, if they are going to the theater, wear a mask and social distance. I recently had a stem cell transplant so I won’t be one of those people for a while, but we all need to do our part if we want theaters to stay open this year.
Hope you are feeling well after your stem cell transplant. August 28th will be the 17th anniversary of my husband’s heart transplant.
So Anderson had power of the dog at #2 and it’s not in your top 9 or the 15 others on your radar?
Is this a typo or do you really just not like Jane Campion?
She has it at #8 on GoldDerby so she must’ve accidentally left it off.
Respect had great music. The writing and directing were amateurish. So sound and best actress. Audra McDonald needs her own movie. She can carry plays. One of the greatest singers. A biopic of Marian Anderson?
Audra MacDonald — biopic of Marian Anderson. Yes!
I highly doubt Respect will get nominated for best picture.
I agree with you Sasha and hope enough other people will support movies. For me the lack of distractions and huge screen are very important to taking me to another world for a few hours and that is worth paying for. I appreciate all the great content that is being created by streamers like Netflix but I really hope it doesn’t make movie theaters obsolete.
I missed going to the movies so much I have been to three in the last two months.
Boss Baby with kids which was fine
Green Knight which I hated
Stillwater which I liked
I also hate having strangers sit near me but fortunately I tend to go off hours and have the theater mostly to myself.
I try to go to the matinees too or in the middle of the week. You’re more than likely to be the only one in the theater.
I agree about not sitting next to people. We tend to go early in the afternoon and generally only have between 5-10 people in the theater with us unless it is a very successful movie. I’d say I have only been to a few crowded movies in many years: La La Land, Rogue One, Black KkKlansman. For the first two, we had to sit in the front row. For Rogue One, it was because we went with relatives who don’t share our penchant for getting places early. For La La Land, the only thing I remember is that we had to stop to let a family of geese go across the road on our way to the theater. That still makes me laugh.
Aww, damn shame about your Green Knight experience.
Will Nicolas Cage be showing up on your lists in the future?
I currently live in an area where there isn’t a cinema (even a blockbuster multiplex) within a few hour radius. The last three films I saw in cinemas were OUATIH, Widows and MI6. Kinda had to put those days of local arthouse and film festivals behind me and just wait for video/streaming. The silver lining to that sheer distance is that Covid’s sense of threat has felt distant as well, I don’t think a single case has come within two hours of where I live and only a few weeks of mask-wearing has been mandatory.
That said, I am an absolute maniac for anything Ridley Scott or Macbeth (a bible of sorts for me) and truly love my Bond too, so I might make the long trek a few times before the year is out. Although I like to heavily rewatch my Ridley Scott to get the full taste, so I may just wait to blind-buy that and revisit to heart’s content.
I saw the previews for Bond and it looks like a mess.
1. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) REMAKE
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) ↔
3. House of Gucci (MGM/UA) ↔
4. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) REMAKE
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple) REMAKE
6. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) REMAKE
Uh, yeah, will never happen. You tell ’em JLaw.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9a65f2f5baf756c4df67d730221cf2a4298a3f78a4534f18af6dba0268f144a2.jpg
Dune is not a remake. It is a more accurate adaption of the novel. The 1984 movie was an absolute crap fest.
You obviously don’t know the difference between remakes and new adaptations of literary source? By your logic every new movie adaptation of Jane Eyre or Anna Karenina is remake of the previous movie?
Yes, and neither of them will get nominated either.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/33cbebb4d3412167429d06abf3ecb03419f636d94f343755f1f094e3dbba320b.gif
Out of all the Shakespeare plays I would like to see Richard II be made into a movie.
I can’t believe more people aren’t clamoring for Timon Of Athens, easily the most well-known Shakespeare play in the English language.
I was under the impression that today nobody reads it along with ‘Cymbeline’, ‘Troilus And Cressida’, ‘Measure For Measure’, ‘Pericles’. The attention is on the great tragedies like Hamlet, Macbeth, Romeo And Juliet and on some comedies like As You Like It. I would really like Ralph Fiennes to do another Shakespeare movie. Coriolanus was terrific.
I agree that not many people have read it. I read a lot of Shakespeare because I taught English. I even had a Shakespeare class in college. I’ve never read Timon of Athens, but maybe sometime I will find my old Shakespeare book in my basement and read it.
I studied Julius Caesar and The Merchant Of Venice. The final comedy act in Venice is unnecessary I have always felt.
I actually hated Coriolanus but would love to see Ralph Fiennes in Titus Andronicus, either on stage or in a film adaptation…
Titus Andronicus has been done on film by Anthony Hopkins. What about ‘Richard II’ for Ralph Fiennes?
‘Macbeth’ being done again is a surprise. It was done recently with Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard. Not as good as the Orson Welles version though.
The only one of these I’d consider a true “Remake” is “WSS”
But it’s not like West Side Story is just remaking the movie either, I think there’s been talk about it leaning on some levels closer to the play than the 1961 version, emphasizing the source material being the work in another medium just as with Nightmare Alley, Macbeth and Dune
Wonderful to hear that Sasha has gone back to the cinemas. I’ve seen quite a lot of films in cinemas whenever the theatres have been open here and it’s always been, especially after lockdowns, like rising to the surface and getting to breathe after diving. I rarely struggle that much with distractions even when watching a movie at home (I live alone, often watch movies in the evenings and nights when I have no more things to do that day, I find the idea of checking one’s phone during a movie to be deeply disrespectful to the movie so I rarely ever do it and since I usually watch at least one movie a night, it all becomes a routine and the quality of the viewing experience is pretty consistent) but there is no way for the home viewing experience to even come close to even a somewhat subpar cinemagoing experience. As snobby as this might sound, it is simply the way these films were made to be seen. While I wouldn’t go as far as for example Rivette and call watching a film on a television a reflection of the movie (if it were so, I would have mostly seen reflections of films in my life), the language of storytelling meant for a vast canvas is very different than that of storytelling meant for a small screen and too often something ineffable about the imagery, about pace and about tone is simply lost when these works are observed on a screen that might be less than sufficient and experienced with less than total immersion.
So people, if you feel comfortable doing so and are able to, go to the movies. They need you, and since you’re reading a film site like this, it might be that you need them as well.