We’re rounding the bend in the Oscar race. Even though it is still just October and voting doesn’t start until the end of January, since 2004 we have not had a year where the Best Picture contender was not seen by October. The reason for this, at least in the past, was that the Academy pushed the date of the Oscars up by one month in 2003. That basically pushed the whole thing up by one month.
There wasn’t really time for the December releases, the traditional method of dumping Oscar movies in the pre-2003 era, to gather up a strong enough consensus to win. Add to that the preferential ballot doesn’t often allow for last-minute surges, even if we did see one of those, more or less, a couple of years ago with Parasite. But we don’t know if Parasite had dropped in December, before anyone had seen it, whether it could have swept up as many Oscars in the final act. Parasite’s popularity was a slow burn. It was earmarked to win International Feature, but as people watched it and discussed it (and especially after its standing ovation at the SAG Awards), its buzz just kept picking up steam. But it was actually seen first in Cannes, when it won the Palme d’Or. It ran the festival circuit, picking up fans along the way. By the end, it didn’t take much to get the last remaining voters to see it and feel the enthusiasm.
But a film dropped in November or December has a very hard time gathering a necessary consensus. We still have to see a few key films, like Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, Tick Tick Boom, and maybe Eternals, but we’ve seen more movies by now than we’re waiting for.
It might be a good time to check in on the frontrunners and their challengers. So let’s do this, shall we?
First, these aren’t predictions. This is a rough assessment of what many pundits are thinking, along with my own general view of how things have gone so far and how they might go.
We’re looking for potential winners here, not nominees. That’s a different conversation.
Best Picture
Frontrunners:
Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
These three, at least right now, seem to have the heat heading into the season. They are well-reviewed, highly praised, and male-driven — which is often key to Best Picture (though not always, as in last year’s example). Belfast and King Richard have the benefit of being uplifting movies about good people doing good things. The Power of the Dog is much more complex, its power being driven by how good it is but also by how much good will there is for the legend that is Jane Campion. Both Belfast and King Richard have their additional factors that make them strong. Kenneth Branagh is enjoying a bit of a comeback, after being hailed once a very long time ago as a wunderkind, but whose career has hit more than a few bumps in the road. King Richard is not just directed by a black director — which is extremely rare for a Best Picture frontrunner: just two have ever won directed by black directors, and only one of these, Moonlight, was directed by a black American director — but more than that, it is about the legendary Williams sisters, Serena and Venus, and goodwill for them will drive goodwill for this movie.
What you want with Best Picture in the era of the preferential ballot is the movie that lands at the top of most ballots, whether it lands at 1 or 2 or 3. Last year, for instance, in the various polls we did, Nomadland kept landing near the top. So even if it wasn’t a favorite number one film, people felt good about it and wanted it to do well, so they pushed it to the top anyway. That is what you need to win in this era. Parasite would have hit high on most ballots. When it came to Green Book vs. Roma, Green Book had an advantage by being both the more likable of the two but also it gained momentum the more it was attacked.
If your movie isn’t going to be a 2 or a 3, it better win on the first round, meaning it has the majority of the votes heading in. I usually see this as a movie that wins the PGA/DGA and SAG ensemble will win on the first round heading into the Oscars. Those that have in the era of the preferential ballot would be:
The King’s Speech
Argo
Birdman
I also think there’s a good chance The Hurt Locker won on the first round, maybe Parasite. But the others did well, to my mind, because they picked up second and third place votes too.
Other potential nominees:
CODA
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dune
Spencer
Mass
Other challengers to Best Picture for the win would be the unseen:
Nightmare Alley
House of Gucci
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
Don’t Look Up
Tick Tick Boom
Ask yourself — what can win the Producers Guild on a preferential ballot with ten nominees?
Ask yourself — what can win the Golden Globes with five nominees?
Ask yourself — who wins DGA and SAG ensemble?
Ask yourself — which films will head in with Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, and Acting nominations (can win without the latter two, but always preferable)?
Best Actor
Frontrunners:
Will Smith, King Richard — nominated twice for Best Actor but never won
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano — never been nominated
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog — nominated once for Best Actor in a Best Picture nominee
Denzel Washington, Tragedy of Macbeth — nominated six times for lead, twice in supporting, won once in each category
Potential challengers:
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley — nominated for lead three times, supporting once
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up — nominated five times for lead and won once, nominated once for supporting
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick Boom — nominated once in lead
Best Actress
Frontrunners:
Kristen Stewart, Spencer — never nominated
Jessica Chastain, Eyes of Tammy Faye — twice nominated: once in lead, once in supporting
Jennifer Hudson, Respect — won for Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers — won once in supporting, nominated twice in supporting, once in lead
Other nominees might be:
Frances McDormand, Tragedy of Macbeth — three wins for lead, three nominations for supporting
Catriona Balfe, Belfast — never nominated
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel — never nominated
Olivia Colman, Lost Daughter — won in lead, also nominated in supporting
Tessa Thompson, Passing — never nominated
Still waiting to see:
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci — nominated once in lead
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley — won lead, won supporting, nominated four times for lead, three times for supporting
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story — never nominated
Best Director
Frontrunners:
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Denis Villenueve, Dune
Other potential nominees:
Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
Joe Wright, Cyrano
Not yet seen:
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Ridley Scott, House of Gucci or The Last Duel
Supporting Actress
Frontrunners:
Ann Dowd, Mass — never nominated
Kirsten Dunst, Power of the Dog — never nominated
Aunjenue Ellis, King Richard — never nominated
Judi Dench, Belfast — nominated five times for lead, twice supporting, won once in supporting
Marlee Matlin, CODA — won once for lead
Other potential nominees:
Ruth Negga, Passing — nominated once for lead
Olga Merediz, In the Heights — never nominated
Unseen:
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story — never nominated
Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley — twice nominated, once lead, once supporting
Supporting Actor
Frontrunners:
Richard Jenkins, The Humans — twice nominated, once in lead and once in supporting
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar — never nominated for acting
Kodi Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog — never nominated
Jesse Plemons, Power of the Dog — never nominated
Unseen:
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza — nominated three times for lead, once for supporting
Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley — nominated once for lead, three times for supporting
Jared Leto, House of Gucci — won once in supporting
Screenplay
For Screenplay, we look for the Best Picture frontrunners first, unless there is a star writer in the mix. Or a consolation prize of sorts (2nd or 3rd place win). So that means:
Frontrunners for Screenplay
Original:
Belfast
King Richard
Challengers/Unseen:
Licorice Pizza
Don’t Look Up
Other potential nominees:
C’mon, C’mon
Mass
A Hero
Parallel Mothers
Adapted:
The Power of the Dog
Challengers:
CODA
The Humans
Cyrano
The Lost Daughter
Unseen:
Nightmare Alley
House of Gucci
It’s not a perfect system, just a rough sketch. Make of it what you will.
I saw the trailer to licorice pizza last night with no time to die. This movie looks really oscar baity
At this point, if I had to bet…
Picture – Belfast
Director – Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (or Kenneth Branagh, Belfast)
Actor – Will Smith, King Richard (or Peter Dinklage, Cyrano)
Actress – Kirsten Stewart, Spencer (or Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers)
Supporting Actor – Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (or Jason Isaacs, Mass)
Supporting Actress – Anne Dowd, Mass (or Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog)
Adapted Screenplay – The Power of the Dog
Original Screenplay – Belfast (or Parallel Mothers)
SAG Ensemble – Mass (or Belfast)
Are we getting Being the Ricardos this year or not? If so, I would hope that with the calibre of Sorkin, Kidman and Bardem with a movie about icons of Hollywood that we should see some traction for at least one of them.
heard that there’s positive buzz on Bardem and Kidman on that one… that the casting pays off. Let’s wait to see if it is real, or just marketing.
Best Animated Feature:
-Disney
-Disney
-Disney
-Disney
-Disney
And the winner is, wait for it…
FREAKIN’ DISNEY!!!!
There’s a foreign film, Flee, from Denmark, that is buzzed to break through… also, Netflix’s The Mitchells vs the Machines, has a decent shot at winning.
Wolfwalkers was the highest-rated animated film last year and the Oscar still went to Pixar (Disney).
I think “Encanto” is the frontrunner… but it’s an open field, as “Luca” isn’t among Pixar’s best, by any means
My insanely wild , crazy oscar predictions
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Dune
House of Gucci
The Last Duel
LIcorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
No time to die.
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
International Feature
A Hero-Afghanistan
Flee-Denmark
The Hand of God-Italy
Parallel Mothers-Spain
The Worst Person in the World-Norway
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Bragnh for Belfast
Cary Fukunaga for no time to die
Sian Heder for CODA
Denis Villeneuve for Dune
Animated Feature Film
The Addams Family 2
Encanto
Flee
Luca
Ron’s Gone Wrong
Original Screenplay
Belfast
C’mon C’mon
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Plaza
Spencer
Adapted Screenplay
Dune
House of Gucci
The Last Duel
No time to die
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett in Nightmare Alley
Toni Collette in Nightmare Alley
Lady Gaga in House of Gucci
Ariana DeBose in West Side Story
Rebecca Ferguson in Dune
Costume Design
Dune
House of Gucci(Janty Yates)
No time to Die
Spencer(Jacqueline Durran)
West Side Story(Paul Tazewell)
Visual Effects
Dune
The Eternals
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the legend of the Ten Rings
Supporting Actor
Adam Driver in The Last Duel
Willem Dafoe in Nightmare Alley
Ciaran Hinds in Belfast
Jeremy irons in House of Gucci
Al Pacino in House of Gucci
Cinematography
Dune
The last duel
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Production Design
Belfast
Dune
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
No Time to Die
Sound Design
Dune
The Eternals
Nightmare Alley
No time to Die
West Side Story
Film Editing
Belfast
Dune
The last duel
No Time to Die
West Side Story
Makeup and Hairstyling
Cruella
Dune
Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
The Last Duel
Lead Actress
Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Judi Dench in Belfast
Jodi comer in the last duel
Marlee Matlin in CODA
Jennifer Hudson in Respect
Lead Actor
Bradley Cooper in Nightmare Alley
Jamie Dornan in Belfast
Daniel Craig in No time to die
Andrew Garfield in the eyes of Tammy Faye
Jared Leto in House of Gucci
Original score
Kris Bowers for King Richard
Ramin Dwjandi for The Eternals
Alexandre Desplat for Nightmare Alley
Hans Zimmer for no time to die
Hans Zimmer for Dune
Original Song
CODA
Dear Evan Hansen
Encanto
No Time to Die
Respect
Off-topic but in terms of the theatrical/streaming divide, at least one movie this season apparently is trying to really think outside the box of modern release strategies: Memoria (not a contender necessarily but maybe the best movie of the year) is apparently going to not be released (perhaps ever?) on streaming or DVD in the US, and is going to basically be a touring production starting in December with one print, playing one theater at a time.
See it, it’s incredible
I had a chance to see it last weekend but couldn’t. Now I wish I did.
Colombia chose it as their submission. I heard it was mostly in English. Is that true?
When I think back to it, I think of it as being very much in English but weirdly I never feel comfortable with assessing this kind of stuff because I feel like I have no confidence in my assessments (I feel like I correct stuff in my head to be something else than what it actually was pretty easily). Otherwise I’d say that it’s mostly in English but there is this one sequence that takes perhaps a quarter or a third of the movie which I’m not sure about the balance of but I think it’s mostly in Spanish, (what makes it especially difficult is that the structure of that sequence is quite complicated in terms of what is spoken) and that could easily overthrow the balance of the dialgoue of the movie in general.
I wonder if it will be disqualified. Thanks for letting me know.
Haven’t seen it yet but I can assure that it’s ridiculous to reduce this movie to its spoken language or location.
Apitchapong’s movies are about sensorial, not spoken, experiences with mythology and nature taking over narration and social subjects.
Besides, he’s a Thaï in French exile with an international cast in the Amazonian forest. I understand producers try to snatch a nomination, but cmon…
If we shouldn’t divide nature in political pieces, then we shouldn’t tag a nationality on this film.
Same with Mustang, a few years ago.
No Netflix movies will be nominated this year.
My early bird Oscar predictions for best picture
Coda
Dune
No time to die
The last duel
Licorice pizza
Nightmare alley
Belfast
Tragedy of Macbeth
West side story
Belfast just looks to be right up Baftas street and they can sway votes away from the more American centric pics.
Belfast wins picture and director and will lead the nomination count and maybe dune will also lead nomination count
Now that Parallel Mothers is out of the race in International Feature, what are people predicting to win there?
Farhadi #3
The worst person in the world
I’m also predicting Farhadi. With The Worst Person in the World (and Compartment No. 6, which I think is a contender as well), I kind of wonder about them possibly being very much about young people. Some of the stuff I’ve read about describe The Worst Person in the World as the kind of movie that might become very important to a specific generation in their 30s, and Compartment No. 6 is specifically about someone in their 20s trying to figure life out. I just wouldn’t be surprised if the older voters will not be that interested in these movie or if they treat those movies as “similar” and thus only choose one
I’d say Denmark’s Flee, if submitted, or The Worst Person in the World. I never trusted Almodovar would be even submitted, I focused on PM breaking through other categories because of that… like in 2002 and 2006.
When I read about the other contenders, I inmediately dropped any instinct of Almodovar being submitted. It was clear he wouldn’t be.
I have no idea if France will submit it but my prediction is Happening by Audrey Diwan.
That’s a really good prediction. I kind of wonder, though, whether the abortion topic will be an issue, since from what I recall there was supposedly still some very strong pushback against Never Rarely Sometimes Always from some members of the Academy a year ago
Yeah, to be true I predicted Never Rarely Sometimes Always for a long time to at least get a screenplay nomination based on the timely and important topic (to point the way like the usually love to do) but somehow it didn´t happen. Seems like, as you say, there was either some kind of pushback against the abortion topic or the film was probably too subtle and too indie… Anyway, I furthermore predicted Happening because I´m really looking forward to see that film 😉
I was thinking of this story but apparently it was only one person (although who knows how many more people are just silent even if they’re just as stupid): https://variety.com/2021/film/news/eliza-hittman-never-rarely-sometimes-always-oscar-voter-1234916491/
Ouch, this one really sounds like a typical hardliner. But I guess the Academy as a whole is more open-minded (even if they snubbed NRSA). But for sure, the voters that are the most chatty with the press often seem to be the most ridiculous ones (which is both hilarious and depressing).
I think is either this or Lost Illusions
I agree with Happening, or maybe The Hand of God?
1. “When it came to Green Book vs. Roma, Green Book had an advantage by being both the more likable of the two but also it gained momentum the more it was attacked.” I also recall that the attacks hurled at Roma got pretty intense, especially after it led the field in nominations with the two surprise acting nods. The language barrier, Three Amigos fatigue, and ESPECIALLY bad feelings towards Netflix sunk it. Frankly, it’s very likely it came in third. But the sheer stroke of luck Green Book had was Bryan Singer walking off Bohemian Rhapsody after another round of molestation accusations BUT keeping his credit as director. Singer’s name isn’t on that picture, BR runs the tables. It clearly had the momentum heading into Oscar.
2. Wither Netflix? Power of the Dog is Netflix product. Yes, the streamers have won some Oscars, but Netflix’s near total shut out LAST YEAR makes me wonder if Netflix has done enough to answer its extremely loud critics. The business with ScarJo and Disney Plus frankly will make lots of voters uneasy with Netflix and streamers in general.
3. Serena Williams isn’t as popular in some circles as people think. She’s a notorious poor loser and her antics in the 2019 US Open were so over the top that the actual winner of the tourney, Naomi Osaka, was reduced to tears at the trophy ceremony and literally APOLOGIZED to the crowd for winning, and Serena did very little to calm the crowd down (frankly, Osaka’s well publicized mental health problems arguably had their start at this moment). Will that swing the Oscar vote? Probably not, but this is the type of film that won’t have many nominations total and can’t afford ANY votes below 2 or 3 for BP.
4. Don’t discount Dinklage if he gets nominated. He’s utterly beloved in the industry.
Serena behaved like spoiled brat at the 2019 US Open final. It was highly embarassing moment.
That wasn’t a one off, she had done that before in an Open final and got DQ’d because of it.
What happened with Osaka was nearly unforgiveable and I wonder if Serena has ever connected the dots with that.
Well, I know it’s a bit early, but I think No Time To Die gets nominated and Daniel Craig wins Best Actor. And don’t jump down my throat until you’ve seen No Time To Die, Colonials!
I’ve seen it and I don’t think it’s going to happen, at least for Craig (a 10th spot or so in picture isn’t necessarily impossible). If Keanu Reeves couldn’t get any buzz for John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum, which is a much more exciting performance in a big action movie, Craig winning for this performance (which I think is also good but more straightforward) would be very odd in my opinion.
Ask yourself — what can win the Producers Guild on a preferential ballot with ten nominees?
1917
Ask yourself — what can win the Golden Globes with five nominees?
1917
Ask yourself — who wins DGA and SAG ensemble?
1917- DGA, Parasite- SAG
Ask yourself — which films will head in with Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, and Acting nominations (can win without the latter two, but always preferable)?
Neither 1917, nor Parasite.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say Daniel Craig wins actor for no time to die and Jodi comer wins best actress for the last duel in the Oscar race
LOL trying to work out which of your posts is the funniest, but probably the Netflix one.
Let’s check in after the Oscars to see how you’ve gone with your amazing predictions.
Yes, Craig could easily win for his last Bond.
Breaking news… in Spain, is 2002 all over again.
Back then, Almodovar’s “Talk to Her” wasn’t submitted for Oscar consideration, defeated by Fernando León de Aranoa’s “Mondays in the Sun”, starring Javier Bardem in a body transformation. A drama about unemployment.
2021… “Parallel Mothers” loses the submission in favor of Fernando León de Aranoa’s “El Buen Patrón” (The Good Boss), starring Javier Bardem in a body transformation. A satire about work classes relationships.
So, logical effect might be, “Parallel Mothers” skyrockets in its probability of being nominated in other categories, as in 2002’s Talk to Her (Original Screenplay win and Director nom) and 2006’s Volver (Lead Actress nom)… this hasn’t surprised me at all – Almodovar + subject matter: poison for a good chunk of the Spanish Academy), but I was betting it would be the more spectacular – and dramatic – “Mediterraneo”, the chosen one (the one out of the three, that I was thinking could even win). I guess that “The Good Boss” won’t even make the shortlist, in the end… all AMPAS eyes on Bardem’s films will be for “Dune” and specially, “Being the Ricardos”.
Is El Buen Patrón really that good to beat Parallel Mothers for the submission? Why did Spain shoot itself in the foot like that?
I guess it’s because Parallel Mothers can campaign on its own for the rest of categories. I guess.
nope, they don’t really care about that. It’s a democratic vote. They simply just don’t like Almodóvar as a person, generally speaking. And understandably (as a person, a celebrity, normally I can’t stand him… other matter, is him as an author).
They idolize Aranoa, on the other hand.
Really, go to IMDB and check out how many Goyas and nominations – and how many snubs – Almodovar films have earned throughout the years. Some of the snubs and upsets are embarrassing.
Interesting that Sasha has a 3-way race TPOTD/Belfast/King Richard when most other pundits see it differently.
At Gold Derby the top 3 overall are actually
1. TPOTD
2. Nightmare Alley
3. Licorice Pizza
Belfast is #4 and King Richard is way down at #8.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/303eaf4ec3b0decd9065143a9a5e85b373a836ae96a1a4154455a5c9a904480f.jpg
Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza will become contenders (or not) after people see them. At this point it’s only speculation but yes, they are serious awards hopefuls with pedigree.
‘Power Of The Dog’ looks strong to win Director and Screenplay for now.
Interesting Oscar nerd statistic: Branagh can become the fourth person (after Walt Disney, Alfonso Cuaron, and George Clooney) to be nominated in six different categories if “Belfast” gets an original screenplay and a picture nomination. Branagh has already been nominated for Best Director, Best Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay in his career.
One of his short films was also nominated, but I don’t think that counts as a nomination for him personally. If it did, that would give him an unprecedented seven categories.
It actually does. He’s the official nominee for his short film starring Gielgud.
Branagh’s not a producer on Belfast.
He’s listed as one of the producers on IMDB, though I don’t know which are counted as the movie’s “official” producers for Oscar purposes (since every movie has a dozen or so producer or executive producers).
I see he is. He’s not credited on Wikipedia – that paragon of accuracy. If he gets nominated for producing then I think a Picture/Director split could well happen, with him winning Picture and Campion getting Director, or something to that effect.
Sasha, I’m going to give you the key on why Parallel Mothers is a bigger contender than it looks at first look…
Almost every Almodovar film has been revolving about himself. This doesn’t. It revolves about a political important subject matter. It is poignant, beyond the analysis – self analysis – of the author. It is not about himself, but about us, which means, more mainstream, relatable and likeable film, that also feels important.
It may end with 0 noms, but I see it with strong potential at Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Score and Cinematography. International Film, if submitted (I don’t think it will, though, I think “Mediterraneo” is the winning horse in that internal race for the submission, check out the trailer).
Winner? Cruz. Maybe Original Screenplay or Almodovar – at last – as Director. But Cruz wins if Parallel Mothers gets a BP nomination, I’m kind of sure of that.
Had it not been for ‘Parasite’ his previous movie would have won International Film. The logic of Cruz maybe also holds for Will Smith if ‘King Richard’ get a BP nomination.
Here’s a thing…why was the decision made to film Belfast in black and white? Why not color?
it’s around Branagh’s childhood, photos back at that time were mostly b&w. Same situation than Cuarón’s Roma.
I sense King Richard taking the Hidden Figures or Blind Side slot—a popular mainstream contender with a few noms and either winning just one or none at all.
Seems to me that unless something unseen comes along and really hits it out of the park Power of the Dog is way ahead in this race, with the Jane Campion narrative, 4 strong performances, writing and the crafts, I don’t see what could touch it.
It’s landed very strongly indeed. It won silver rather than golden lion, it was runner up rather than won TIFF audience award, it’s MC score is strong.
It’s strong on techs & on acting.
Campion has the comeback narrative, Cumberbatch the transformative/against type narrative, Dunst the overdue narrative.
Netflix is the main doubt (and barrier) at this stage, but it’s clear they will campaign strongly for their potential first BP win.
They’ve just held a SAG event. And the visibility and likeability of the stars (and of cinematographer Wegner- first ever female winner is an awesome narrative) is high.
I also think it’s good that it’s not seen as too big at this point, you don’t want it to be targeted or dragged down.
I don’t see Netflix bias as a thing in a year when Warner Bros/HBO Max & Disney have been THE streamers/studios most hit by industry ire this year. I feel like the whole “Netflix bias” thing needs to be rethought honestly—we only have a sample size of 3 years, with really only 1 being…competitive for BP. That was Roma. But if 1917 couldn’t beat a NEON film, Parasite, why would The Irishman have? And of course, Nomadland swept.
And yeah I definitely do agree it’s in its best interests to not be the supposed frontrunner right now. That almost never goes exactly how it’s supposed to lol.
“But if 1917 couldn’t beat a NEON film, Parasite, why would The Irishman have? And of course, Nomadland swept.”
Still grrrr…argh. We are firmly in the death grip of the arthouse Best Picture error, and it’s been here since 2011. Still maintain this year’s Oscars should’ve never been held. And Parasite? The best foreign language movie of 2019. The best PICTURE? Nope. 1917 was.
1917 wasn’t the best picture of 2019. Both 1917 and Parasite are films. Both are pictures. And sadly for you, Parasite was far more loved. And in my opinion, the best picture of the year.
Well, I think it was one of the most inspired wins in a long time, but regardless—if you think there’s an arthouse BP trend that’s continuing then TPOTD makes a whole lot more sense than Belfast as the BP frontrunner even if you don’t particularly like that :/
What is your definition of an “arthouse” film?
It debuts at a film festival;
It’s released in a minimum amount of theaters;
It’s targeted at a niche market rather than a mainstream audience. Almost half of the least-seen BP winners in American film have been since 2011.
Lots of popular films debut at film festivals. Joker debuted at a film festival. Pulp Fiction did, too.
Every BP winner this past decade has been shown at the movie theater near my house.
By and large, AMPAS is awarding the same kinds of movies they’ve always awarded. What’s changed is what the public consumes, and how.
Midnight Cowboy was a big box office success in 1969. Kramer vs. Kramer was the #1 movie in American box office in 1979. Rain Man was #1 in 1988. All of those would be called “arthouse films” if they were released today.
Last year’s Oscar night faceplant by Ma Rainey and Chicago 7, the films with tons of buzz wasn’t nothing.
Okay. But how about Tragedy of Macbeth, CODA, King Richard, Dune, Encanto, The Humans, Being the Ricardos, The Tender Bar, A Hero, Encounter, all the Disney+ films that will sweep the techs, Don’t Look Up, The Lost Daughter, Tick Tick Boom, Passing, The Harder They Fall…….I mean I could go on and on and on…
What you don’t seem to get is that not only did the pandemic favor Netflix, basically every studio has a streamer now — the ones that came under the industry’s ire most were Warner/HBO Max & Disney because of same-day releases/the ScarJo lawsuit. It was hairy! Netflix is giving good theatrical-only windows to all of its awards films & 3 years in, it feels like everyone works with Netflix. There’s a million streamers, why on earth would there still be a “bias” against one streamer. Just because it happened to start up…3 years ago? Literally, Roma was it’s first biggest contender. The sample size is 3! People assumed there was a Netflix bias at the Emmy’s too and there probably was, but The Crown just SWEPT, which is probably helped by the fact that….so did Apple! You have Amazon, Netflix, Apple, HBO Max, Showtime (The Humans), Disney, Paramount, god I can’t even remember them all. And also keep in mind: studios like Universal made deals with chains like AMC and Cinemark with very small theatrical windows! 2-3 weeks. Which is exactly what Netflix does (usually it does more actually) for its awards films. Bottom line: it’s silly to keep using a “Netflix bias” argument if you’re not even willing to examine facts. Tell me why it would be worse off than any other studio or streamer? Why? It also literally PAID BANK to studios for films which was a huge relief (it wasn’t the only one either, obviously). How will you sustain this argument?
As for Ma Rainey’s Best Actor loss, I think you know……… that probably didn’t have much to do with Netflix. One almost wishes it did, but this was a film with no passion, it couldn’t get into BP. In fact all 3 of Netflix’s biggest films last year had…basically no passion. They weren’t good enough. Honestly they got way more than they deserved, and Hopkins and The Father were perennially underrated. I can’t argue that a bad batch of films should have won.
Citing the Emmys as proof that the streamers will be popular with Oscar is muddled at best. Spielberg let it be known (inelegantly) that Netflix “movies” are just TV movies pretending to be theatrical releases. Considering the movie industry needs THEATRICAL revenue to fund future big budget items, it will have to take an incredible once in a lifetime film to award BP to a streamer.
You realize Warner Bros has a streamer right? ……..HBO Max……
So does the most traditional of studios: Disney
And Disney’s BP winner is who again? Warner’s BP winner was who again? Last year of all times the streamers should have flourished. In the Top Five categories, only one picture that streamed the same day it was in a theater won an award (Judas for Kaluuya).
It’s going to take an extremely special film to punch through that barrier much like it took one to punch through being in a foreign language. Pretending streamers don’t have baggage with the Academy is naive.
Um. Sir, Nomadland was a film from a studio subsidiary of Disney which also owns Hulu, thus Nomadland went streaming to Hulu. You don’t seem to be getting the point. Unless you think NEON is winning all BP winners from now on, all the major studios have streamers!! The only one that doesn’t is Sony — and it deals with that by making first-look deals with Netflix (previously it would release to Starz), but that won’t last long, because it’s the….only…..one…..
Small studios like A24 are teaming up with different streamers for different films: Apple for Tragedy of Macbeth, Showtime for The Humans. NEON does much the same with Amazon. How do you not get this: how can you call it “Netflix bias” when it covers all streamers and studios? Netflix isn’t even the one doing the same day strategies that others have been doing — the industry KNOWS that in terms of $$$, the studios are all playing streaming wars (it’s a phrase you can Google, you know). Theater chains are struggling and are in no place to bargain, they take anything that comes which is why the biggest chains have made deals with Netflix and other streamers with even shorter theatrical windows than Netflix. What don’t you get lol, follow the freaking money! Oh Spielberg said something Netflix, yeah well Villeneuve blasted the MCU (and thus Disney), ScarJo sued the biggest studio, Nolan called out HBO Max as the worst of the streamers after the Tenet roll-out. Do you keep up……..with news?
And….what was the point of telling me about Judas being the only one on a streamer at the same time? Again — Netflix is NOT using same-day-release strategies for ANY of its awards films, that’s Warner & Disney.
You know, that little condescending blast at the end? That’s where this conversation ended.
It ended a long time ago technically, somehow I wound up in the position of telling you things that a cursory Google search could have told you. But hey, you heard the phrase “Netflix bias” & thus you must keep asking circuitous questions.
You are deliberately blurring films that originated in theaters and signed a streaming deal as opposed to films that played the bare minimum in the theaters and then went a streaming.
Either way, you’re a condescending asshole who is incapable of holding a polite conversation. Therefore, this conversation is over.
Mmmm none of my examples were that, but obviously that does happen all the time. Does it not bear some consideration as to why they did that? Because they were bleeding money. That model you wrote out: movies need theatrical releases to make money to make more movies — it’s not that simple anymore, and it shouldn’t be hard to extrapolate why a company would think it makes financial sense to do that — from your own comment. You’re answering your own questions.
Simmer down. My gosh.
Okay yes I’m sorry, it’s just frustrating to talk to a wall lol
I think they are doing the right thing.
1. They focus on Jane Campion and her status as an acclaimed auteur. But at the same time she’s pretty much a Bong Joon Ho. She’s funny and quirky and relatable. (Campion’s closest competition, Branagh, comes with baggage and is rather aloof and too British.)
2. They focus on women. Yes, the DP Ari Wegner. It would be a huge mistake not to. If they focus on her enough, she’ll win that category in a walk. History in the making. They love that.
3. The stellar cast. The overdue Dunst. Cumberbatch who is often taken for granted but goes against type.
That best director category looks like it has a plenty of room for Julia Ducournau. Just saying.
You mixed up Ruth Negga (Passing) and Rooney Mara (Nightmare Alley).