“The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.”
― The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t
The Oscar race right now is noise. If you spend time on Twitter, you will know what that means. It is a bubble and a vacuum all at once. The more time you spend in that world, the harder it is to see what happens outside of it. While publicists do keep a tight connection to the people who cover the race, and it’s true that COVID has fundamentally changed the race as we once knew it, it’s still important to be able to separate personal agendas from the task at hand.
The noise is mostly advocacy. But within that advocacy is also how people want to be seen. The reviews they write, the films they advocate for — all of that defines who they are online and whether or not they are popular. This can impact critics awards much more so than larger consensus votes. It’s harder to convince a consensus to go along with an out-of-the-box contender. Critics sometimes want to be seen as one big voice to push a movie or a contender through, or they sometimes split apart and choose a wide variety of films. Last year, it was neither a secret nor any surprise that it was going to be a year without a white man winning anything. None of the major awards, until you got to BAFTA and the Oscars, went to white men.
Gothams — Nomadland
New York Film Critics — First Cow/Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Los Angeles Film Critics — Small Axe/Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
National Society of Film Critics — Nomadland/Chloe Zhao
Golden Globes — Nomadland, Chloe Zhao/Daniel Kaluuya/Andra Day/Jodie Foster/Chadwick Boseman
Critics Choice — Nomadland/Chloe Zhao
It was pretty clear early on that it was going to be a year where Nomadland dominated the season from the beginning to the very end. But strangely, the consensus around Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom seemed unbeatable. In that case, the noise was dominating and influencing the major voting bodies like the Globes and the SAG. But the signal was that Ma Rainey was not well-liked. In a year with not many movies heading into the Best Picture race, you’d think it would have at least gotten a Best Picture nomination. But it didn’t. That was a clear signal, or sign, that he might not win.
Similarly, Frances McDormand was starring in the Best Picture frontrunner. That alone was a signal that I chose to ignore that at least one other person, Scott Feinberg at the Hollywood Reporter, did not. Since The Shape of Water had a Best Actress nominee in it and it won Best Picture but not Best Actress, it was a signal I ignored. If voters wanted to pick a non-white actress, they had two to choose from, not one. Andra Day won the Globe, Viola Davis won the SAG, and neither was up for the BAFTA. That showed there was a lot of confusion, a lot of noise. Further splitting the vote was Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman which also had a Best Picture nomination.
You would have thought, watching the Emmys for instance, that at least one actor that won would be a person of color as opposed to their unanimous white winners. But the problem was there wasn’t a consensus built around any non-white actor because none of the people nominated were in shows popular enough to build one. But having them as nominees sent the message that they were inclusive and diverse, kind of like how the BAFTA’s committee chose many people of color nominees but in the end, the winners in Best Actress and Best Actor were white because those movies were well-liked and thus, they could build a consensus.
Right now, we have very little signal. It can’t be measured by reviews anymore because first, there are simply too many people writing them and they aren’t the same people every time. Their tastes can’t be measured against the Academy’s anymore. It can’t be measured by Film Twitter because much of that is performative: what will get the most likes. It can’t be measured by box office, particularly, although we can still hold out hope for that.
What do we have? We have one thing: Belfast won the People’s Choice Award in Toronto. That is the only signal we have. Everything else is noise.
There are some guiding principles, however, that might in play. Those are:
Inclusivity
The industry is still going to be prioritizing non-white, non-male winners wherever they can, partly because they see themselves as “good people doing good things,” but also because they will get called out on Twitter if they don’t. One has to have a Dave Chappelle or Ricky Gervais level of IDGAF to withstand those kind of attacks. Humans are, by design, terrified of public humiliation more so than almost anything else. They, like the Academy, want to be praised for what they do, not scolded, not shamed.
Publicist Power
The key publicists still drive the Oscars. They are powerhouses who have been doing this a long time, and there are some newbies here or there. In general, many of the films in the race are going to be guided by one of these high-profile names. I won’t name them because they like to remain under the radar – but if you cover the race, you have to know who is pushing what, how much they will be spending, what the screening situations are going to be like.
For instance, some of the studios are going to require COVID PCR testing for anyone who wants to attend their high-profile screenings or parties. Some of the studios will hand out the tests in advance. But a good majority are simply not going to bother. That greatly cuts down on the schmoozing that would ordinarily be done. This is the kind of crowd that gets vaxxed and still insists on wearing masks OUTDOORS. So yeah, the climate of fear will continue to be omnipresent.
The job of the publicist in an Oscar season is to manage expectations and control the narrative. It is truly a thankless job. Every single person who wins an Oscar should thank their publicist because half the reason they’re standing there is because someone was out there having conversations, setting up interviews, planning parties, reading reviews, etc.
The Golden Globes Still Matter
One of the biggest reasons is that they aren’t plugged into the Oscar bubble online. They exist outside of it and often are the first stop for the movies Film Twitter has chewed up and spit out, like Bohemian Rhapsody. I don’t know whether they will release nominees or not, but in general they can boost a movie like no other group can. No other early group, besides the guilds, has the same kind of power as the Globes do. It’s not that every single one of their nominees that has an impact, but with some films the Globes really can make the difference. Movies this year that the Globes could push into the race are films like The Last Duel and In the Heights, not to mention Respect with Jennifer Hudson. We haven’t yet seen House of Gucci, and if it’s much better than The Last Duel it will be the nominee instead, as many are predicting. But The Last Duel is actor-driven, star-driven, and an epic. It is the stuff Oscar movies have been made on. But without the Globes, with the critics as the only barometer, I’m not sure it makes it in.
The Critics Choice probably wants to have the same impact as the Globes, but despite that they are slightly more populist than the rest of the critics, they are still critics in the way we define critics today. And that is, essentially, any person who wants to write about the movies.
Richard Rushfield’s latest piece brings up the pointlessness of canceling the Globes. Though he doesn’t see them as being as influential as I do, it’s worth remembering exactly where we are at this point in time:
There’s been this fantasy out there that you can swap in the Critics Choice for the Globes. Terrific idea if the awards field was a vital, living sector; if there was a single viewer on the planet who would say – there’s an opening in my dance card for an awards show in late Feb. What can I find to fill that?
This is a legacy sector with a legacy audience. Which means the people watching now are all the people who are ever going to watch this or any of these shows. And when they die, or burn out, or cant find the batteries to their remotes — that’s it. It’s like your parents’ AOL account. Party’s over — it’s last call at the bar and the lights are flicking on and off.
So kill the Globes if you want. That’s speeds that process along by … getting rid of this entire dance that was once the golden chance to promote the magic of Hollywood.
But when it goes, that’s that. There is no swapping, no second chances, no substitute. Not even a goddamn museum of its own!
I had a funny feeling walking around the Academy Museum of it being kind of like a resting place for what was and what used to be, except that they have completely rewritten their history, or else redefined their role in Hollywood entertainment. And maybe that’s it. Maybe we’re witnessing the end of everything relating to film awards. It would be kind of fascinating to be around if and when they finally say goodbye and thanks for all the fish.
Many of my predictions are wishful thinking predictions, not based on anything other than an instinct and my own idea of how I think the race should and will go. We have to wait for signal. We have to try to avoid the noise. Here is a list:
Best Picture
Sure Bets:
Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Probables:
Dune
Unseen but Seemingly Sure Bets:
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
House of Gucci
Licorice Pizza
Maybes:
The Last Duel
CODA
No Time to Die
Best Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Joel Coen, Tragedy of Macbeth
Alts: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Ridley Scott, Last Duel or House of Gucci
Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Jessica Chastain, Eyes of Tammy Faye
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Alts: Frances McDormand, Tragedy of Macbeth; Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers; Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, Tragedy of Macbeth
Benedict Cumberbatch, Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Matt Damon, The Last Duel
Alts: Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley; Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Best Supporting Actress
Ann Dowd, Mass
Judi Dench, Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Kirsten Dunst, Power of the Dog
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Alt: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Richard Jenkins, Humans
Kodi Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar or The Last Duel
Alts: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza; Andrew Garfield, Eyes of Tammy Faye; Jesse Plemons, Power of the Dog
Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel
Dune
West Side Story
Alt: The Lost Daughter
Original Screenplay
Belfast
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Don’t Look Up
C’mon C’mon
Editing
Belfast
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Dune
No Time to Die
Cinematography
Dune
Nightmare Alley
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Tragedy of Macbeth
Sound
West Side Story
Dune
In the Heights
No Time to Die
The Last Duel
Costumes
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley
Dune
The Last Duel
House of Gucci
Production Design
Nightmare Alley
Dune
West Side Story
Belfast
The Last Duel
Alt: Finch
Visual Effects
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel
Finch
Eternals
I know I am overly bullish on The Last Duel, but we’re still in the spit n’ rub phase, so there is no need to be right this early on. Twitter noise is not behind the movie, but I do wonder how actors will respond to it, not to mention the HFPA.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/the-last-duel-box-office-debacle-1235032811/
A lesson all us filmgoers that a potentially memorable movie and Oscar contender does not need make a fortune at box office be a success…circumstances MUST be considered …I believe all more reason I and I sure silent majority feel it pointless have proper well rounded balanced awards season…. if film like Last Duel that clearly most of critics love…and feedback outside of twitteraphere been strong word of mouth..and factoring in a pandemic where older film audiences qt higher risk who not been vaccinated catching covid …is it any wonder the scope of risk awards season takes trying to force feed us an awards season for sake keeping to schedule fact is delta strain clouds speed of US national recovery …I strongly feel esp given Last Duel deserved as I sure other big screen genuine films do too bigger openings than they did…it unjust unfair environment for older generatio film at box office ….but given the inherent debilitating brain dead mentality of awards season …esp in this difficult time….fact is awards season owe fair consideration for last duel other older age demographic targeted epics this year that good enough to be big time Oscar co tender roo…
https://www.elle.com/culture/celebrities/a37939744/jodie-comer-women-in-hollywood-2021/
…IF awards season as a collective is to pick up the RIGHT signals that be embraced by educated historically aware traditionalists still more prominent than what Hollywood press writ large make it out to be…
Then combined with emerging hottest properties in Hollywood, then Jodie Comer ( who’s killing eve I shamefully not tunes into yet) represents new generation changing of guard of gifted outstanding actresses, Hollywood and academy love their leading ladies an d emerging superstars yea..Comer is HOT in more ways than one…esp after her outstanding debut I ‘ Free Guy’ .
But the Last Duel …it be far too simplistic call it just a ‘ me too’ movie or a ‘ old style epic’ blending of the two puts this epic in a league of it own…at surface glorified brutal gladiatoresque battles…but blending and Scott’s sharp mind for fresh never before adapted for big screen story has lead him to a path of bringing to life a story that resonate with today’s society…without central confronting themes washing over Scott insatiable inspiring appetite for the battle epic…
And then in middle of this you have arguably hottest future and present Starr’s in Hollywood not just Jodie Comer but Adam Driver too…in fact other complication and dilemma ( really should be no brainer for awards season here …) is that it not older more established actors that run the show in this epic it new gen fresher faced youth brigade…
And it A Ridley Scott film..the MOST unappreciated and undermined and undervalued director who misfortune not winning best director Oscar for life time if cinematic innovation that make lot of genres post 1980’s possible …that other film-makers esp I science fiction try to emulate with mixed results fact of matter is Scott dry run is a absolute open sore exposed within and externally outside of DGA and within the Academy…that Ridley Scott. Snubs far more severe unjustified and appalling now than that of Martin Scorsese.
Now even IF I may be bit let down ( unlikely) underwhelmed by tendency maybe for film gravitate to central theme clouding the battles and spectre of war between medieval ttibes in the epic…I can forgive Scott…we may NEVER have epic again quite like ‘ Last Duel ‘ not many known true factual stories blend issues of present with traditional epic this is EXACTLY the TYPE of Potential Oscar winner that Academy BADLY NEED.
It not about a perfect film..or least flawed written wise film …how many of Oscar winners in last decade have flaws in their writing and filmmaking anyway ?
It about a films that can actually unite two warring factions of left and right diatribe….not even twitterati can condemn and shit all over Last Duel…if they do it PROVES that the mad far leftist dominion on farcbook an twit- twitters…etc… dominating the conciousness of Hollywood..to it utter detriment… don’t give a rats bout quality filmmaking that engages immerses film audiences….that they only care most socially relevant films …elevate lesser focused issues they concerned about .
THAT ONLY reason I rule with NO apology to tolerate or appease or feel oweing to leftist championed films that built entirely year upon a year of socio-pathic , pathologically fixated obsessed twitter paraded dark fringe themes…
Why I will NOT see Power of the DOG…
Frankly I think not all but number of you are being bit too far too overhyping Power of the dog .. this film along with nomadland…frankly unlike ‘Last Duel’ don’t have any more to offer pple like me I assure u all but become delusional with awards season…and they are growing in silent majority who are bloody well over the socialist..elevate fringe issues the most type films like Ppwer of Dog Nomadland last year, to lesser extent there no ignoring it Parasite year before ….( lesser for it was cinematically well done still reflected from marginal ratings improvement it by no means thtn as now looking back the state out best film of year in lot our eyes in most competitive of Oscar in last 20 yrs in single season..)
But in end….Academy need Last Duel to win far more than benefits of Power of Dog to me.
Even then , it disappointing number of you over hype Power of Dog at expense of least 6 other films could win best picture ptob far more memorable inspired filmmsking than Power of the Dog…a film dripping with negativity …Inc while not harming real animals depictions of animal cruelty…is THIS BEST Academy and guilds MIGHT end up doing this year?
At expense of French Dispatch, Cyrano, Coda, Spencer, Dune, House of Gucci ? Just to name a few, ?
It legitimate question at top of psvk could represent uniting force is Last Duel…but question is how will undeserved domineering social media socialite militants react to Scott epic winning best picture ?
I’m all in for CODA, though I doubt it’ll get too far. I’m having trouble seeing anything other than Power of the Dog taking the season unless one of the unseens really astounds, and I’m thinking Nightmare Alley.
I hope you’re right about The Power of the Dog.
On CODA: I don’t think it will go far either. I don’t even support anything beyond best actress. She was sensational. The film as a whole was way too conventional, even formulaic. And I didn’t see anything Oscar-worthy about Matlin’s performance. The two males (the brother and the son) were more interesting.
Man house of Gucci is a long movie. Were getting a lot of long movies post pandemic
What’s wrong with long movies? I really don’t care what the running time is as long it’s a good film. This is not an 80 minute super heroe flick.
There’s nothing wrong with long movies. The longer the better, especially if you like the subject matter of the Gucci enterprise
It could be that they felt that removing anything would cause the payoff to unravel.
I love a good 2.5-3 hour movie if it is warranted.
Me too.
According to Wiki, House of Gucci has 160 minutes runtime. Rumored rough cut was 195 min (or more).
Oh jesus christ. I will be very surprised if this film is any good in the end.
Length should not determine how good film is . Let remember House if Gucci is like family biopic evolutionary one where heck lot happens…what I feel we should all respect Ridley Scott as filmmaker he very rarely takes shortcuts for sake of critics appeasement he does films not for critics but for the masses ..Bern adept taking critics with him… this along wirh last Duel seem truly unique inspired filmmaking each wirh vast depth and breadth of visionary storytelling ( which means it too good be frontrunner in law of land as far as awards season virulent siege mentality being held captive to social media ‘ s bullying ?
I mean, I hope it’s good. Length doesn’t mean the film is bad, it’s just I’m not really getting great vibes from the trailer, and to know that it’s a 3 hour epic instead of some 90 minute light viewing adds to my fears.
My sensation that it is going to be overblown, overbloated and Razzie material… increases.
Ridley Scott has made 9 other movies that are 140 minutes or over that (Robin Hood, The Martian, Kingdom of Heaven, Black Hawk Down, Exodus: Gods and Kings, The Last Duel, 1492: Conquest of Paradise, Gladiator and American Gangster). This should not be a surprise
YEA I SORRY I READ MORE DETAIL OF THE SYNOPSIS AND I HAVE TO INSIST AND WARN THE ACADEMY AND THE INCREASINGLY DELUDED GUILDS RIGHT NOW POWER OF THE DOG (OF A FILM) I STAND BY THIS IS SOO NOT THE TYPE OR THEME OF ULTRA NEGATIVITY..DEPICTION OF ANIMAL CRUELTY, SUICIDE THEMES AND TORMENT AND FRANKLY MIND NUMBING ACTS OF PSYCHOLOGICAL MANIPULATION DONT BE DECIEVED THIS FILM MAY LOOK LIKE IT SHOT BEAUTIFULLY PLAY AS A WESTERN THRILLER AT SURFACE BUT PLOT IS DEMENTED SORDID TWISTED TALE SURELY SURELY FOR WHAT OUGHT TO BE MOST FIERCELY FOUGHT OSCAR RACE WHAT POWER OF DOG IS UP AGAINST ACADEMY AND GUILDS CAN DAMN WELL DO BETTER WE DONT NEED TODAY FILMS THAT REINFORCED CYCNICISM WITHIN HUMANITY…STRONG REFERENCES TO ABUSE AND DARK TWISTED THEMES…ANCHORING A FILM ENOUGH IS ENOUGH AWARDS SEASON START EMBRACE SOMETHING FAR MORE UPLIFTING OR YOUR OUTLOOK WILL GO DARK!!! THIS WHAT NETLIX SYNOPSIS
“The Burbank brothers are wealthy ranchers in Montana. At the Red Mill restaurant on their way to market, the brothers meet Rose, the widowed proprietress, and her impressionable son Peter. Phil behaves so cruelly he drives them both to tears, revelling in their hurt and rousing his fellow cowhands to laughter – all except his brother George, who comforts Rose then returns to marry her. As Phil swings between fury and cunning, his taunting of Rose takes an eerie form – he hovers at the edges of her vision, whistling a tune she can no longer play.” — from netflix synopsis
Wait…you haven’t even seen the movie?
Are you serious? After all that he subjected us to, he hasn’t seen the film? How is that different from Twitter losers getting all self-righteous and outraged by films they haven’t seen because they are woke liberals with axes to grind? I really want to know the answer.
I also don’t understand the logic that an unseen The Power of the Dog is a disgusting rehash and a copycat while the 25th film in the Bond franchise is somehow an original.
I agree pretty much with your view of DAWG, but it’s precisely the reasons you’ve listed why it’s likely to win BP.. the fact is that the Academy are in some ways the avant guard of the Leftist movement ..they are become more left leaning in their views each year ; nor is it surprising as the new members are younger, more female and less white …moreover, they are destroying their rating among mainstream America but care not a toss about that
I think the only movie that could beat it is Nightmare Alley that seems right up their alley, so to speak..they like those retro movies set in the early/mid 20th C … it has an oscar winning director and a number of big stars .. Ive watched the original and think it’s likely to win BP if done well
I very confused why Power of the Dog is soo many prematurely judged favourite?
There been toooooo many western dramas of this callibre that won most notibly in the 90’s in Unforgiven and then Dances with Wolves even then there been PLEEEENTY of westerns that are comparable to Campion’s latest offering.
Furthermore….relative to likes of ‘House of Gucci’, ‘The Last Duel’, Spielbergs ‘West Side Story’ (he may just be beginning to prove me wrong bout well his case revisionist films of a former oscar winning film being modernised it Spielberg we all should be open to what extent he transformed this classic to resemble situation setting for today standards i confess if one filmmaker that can pull off near impossible it Spielberg this have be BY FAR HIS BIGGEST MOST AMBITIOUS CHALLENGE WELL SINCE BRINGING SCHINDLER’S LIST TO LIFE), Coda, Spencer (another film after seeing that trailer i warming up to as alternative as certainly never been a princess Diana drama with such near unrecognisable performance by female lead shot and told so authentically with layered detail as has been here), Dune, No time to Die..(those saying this film is not worthy of best picture is blatantly disregarding the fact once upon a time filmmaking best picture serious contenders used to be based on entertainment public sentiment value equation NOT as is being the case reflected by the militant extremist twitterati gone absolute rabid mad championing ‘ power of the dog’ not all but some of you i suspect? may not admit..that you overtly sympathetic to the twitterati sociological stranglehold they have over awards season?
You think that ridiculous assertion? look at but a sampling of i sure as come to mind i check out film trialers (not i not waste my bloody time i would not if i were you reading into critic views go by instinct and common sense to determine best picture eventually this year..not following the lead of those like twitterati, sociology majors who clearly sabotaged and compromised the very soul and heart of what THE ACADEMY USED TO STAND FOR…
IT NO LONGER BOUT TRUE BEST FILM…ROT HAS SET IN SINCE 2007 INFAMOUS DARK KNIGHT SNUB some you who call me out on that are absolutely in denial..is it any coincidence since 2007? LEAST 9/13 oscar outcomes and favoured winners during oscar season have been socialiology preferenced films?
HOW MANY BLOODY BIG SCREEN QUALITY EVENT INSPIRED MOVIES HAVE FALLEN BY THE WAYSIDE?
hmmm?
In any event Power of the DOG of a film i seen the trailer and honestly? as i said before i over my phase well and truly of being sympathetic and open minded see film just cos it hyped up by what ought to be A MINORITY that should be existing EXTERNALLY outside with limited input into oscar race NOT as twitterati, farcebook and you name it being in drivers seat time and time and time and time again…THEY HAVE CORRUPTED THE INTEGRITY AND SOUL OF AWARDS SEASON…it starting to show up in esp, directors and producers guild esp alarming rate increadingly in last 7 years..none more pronounced than in last 4 years of guild outcomes..
Not so much SAG which to it credit those outcomes have stuck by their pricniples not wavered too much…but the Writers Guild is starting to be captive to the left..politics NOT MERIT is order of the day for awards season.
Those you think i wrong then justify to me irrespective of digital age we live in, that irrefutable fact is even before streaming became a dominant trend? how else you justify in vain feeble defense of direction Awards season has taken?
It like a plane being shot out of the sky takin a nosedive with a 100 km/h impact…just utter wreckage and devastation …
I emphasise ever since my foresight in the deterioration of Academy public worth and value to us the film goer and there which has come to fruition regrettablt to most of us….moralistic virtue signalling dictating oscar outcomes over true effort and innovation and originality and intrigue in filmmaking…
Finally…the i owe you factor …in end films like No time to Die win best picture ? THE ACADEMY AND THE GUILDS NEED FILM LIKE THIS EVERY NOW AND THEN TO WIN IN SHORT TERM MUCH MORE THAN NO TIME TO DIE NEED OSCAR.
FINALLY HOW MUCH LONGER ARE WE GONNA TOLERATE A BEGRUDGING ACCEPTANCE (NOT ME THANKFULLY) TO HALF BAKED LESSER DESERVED FILMS WINNING BEST PICTURE?
Only last year in what was flattest least inspired crop of oscar favourites of the contenders we had a solid arthouse ovverated flick in Nomadland win best picture…not too long ago before that with Birdman, again…the resentment for action done really well even epics is clear for all to see…DO WE REALLY NEED DO ACADEMY NEED CAN THEY AFFORD TO DO YET ANOTHER ARTHOUSE MOVIE Which is what Power of Dog is before any epic story sense of excitement or spirit of vision ? and only a year after News of the World made impression at oscars despite not winning many oscars DO THE MOST EDUCATED FILM GOING PUBLIC THE KEY DEMOGRAPHIC THAT ALL BUT ABANDONED THE SINKING SHIP OF THE ACADEMY really will they be drawn back to regenerate oscars declining viewership and public engagement if POWER OF THE DOG wins best picture? which it must be pointed out unlike most other contenders is NOT opening in theatres even moderately wide..
NOW THAT PROOF POSITIVE POWER OF THE DOG IS SO NOT THE FILM ACADEMY NEED TO GET BACK CORE PUBLIC VIEWING DEMOGRAPHIC THEY NEED TO REGAIN MY OR SILENT MAJORITY OTHER FILM GOEERS TRUST ..
How do you define “socialiology (sic) preferenced film” and in what way does Power of the Dog fit that definition?
the dark cynicism with which central character anchors the film casting a helpless yet abusive figure driving anoyher character to suicide amplifying these negative traits and inflicting fear and viewership guilt of suffering etc is type themed film that caters to sociopathic nutjobs online sorry and if oscar canot see that then awards seaosn are doomed look at downhill trend in drop off a cliff type ratings the record insane extent far better films in last decade each awards season snubbed oscar preference for immoral/ moralistic hybrid ‘educational’ type fims…their abandonment of entertainment value i strongly suspect and hope most educated smareter than twitterati mentality film goers engage with several other far more appealing and inspiring oscar contenders..dark themed negativity guilt tripping films irres[ective of films twist is just torturous not needed esp in a time world is barely coming out from a pandemic…i we all should SERIUSLY attack awards season direction and judgement beyond this year if POWER OF THE DOG wins best picture over everything else..it is a profile of oscar contenders that every bit as competitive as year Parasite did NOT deserve to win all major awards..NOT a year where one obbious stand out contender good news for me with i dare say fools hope..is only early days very much so in oscar race and anything can happen…
Do you like Australian movies ? I’ve seen quite a few of them , some are hilarious
Dear Aaron, let me just tell you that I just saw The Power of the Dog yesterday, and it’s the best new film I’ve seen in two, or maybe four years. Do give it a chance, the film is quite different from what the trailer makes it seem like, and also quite different than anything you might think of under “western” I think.
I still can’t get over the fact that he hasn’t seen the film and thinks it’s like Dances with Wolves. Although I have to confess that I committed the same crime and decided to comment on his comment even though I didn’t finish reading his comment.
Can you please make your posts a little shorter? My finger hurts from all the scrolling down
Jesus. what is this vomit of a post?
Just saw “Parallel Mothers”.
Who’s saying this is “not as good” as the best Almodovar films?
IT MAY BE HIS BEST!!!
OH MY GOD. If this doesn’t win Original Screenplay AND Lead Actress and gets nominated for Picture, Director and Score, I am going to lose my faith in the AMPAS.
Soooo complex game of metaphores, allegories, ideas, a slowburn – specially in the first half – with devastating consequences and pay-offs in the second half. And – as in Pain & Glory – a master’s final shot, to end the film, full of ideas in one single frame.
This is really another level of filmmaking.
***** / A+
So you still have faith in AMPAS? 😀
I was really hoping that this would be the Surprise Film at the London Film Festival – turned out to be C’mon C’mon instead. I’ll have to catch it in the regular old cinema then in – … – January.
they gave Best Picture to a Korean film. They nominated Bakalova. They nominated Banderas for Pain & Glory.
They still can do right.
Trust me: CRUZ SHOULD WIN. Really, just looking at this film, and knowing what Stewart will have to convey in Spencer, it’s no contest. Cruz’s character faces some real shit that makes Diana’s look like an amusement park, and she abandons her glamour completely to bare her soul on screen with heart-wrecking moments.
This film is pure genius from start to finish… even in the slowest parts that you think the movie is dragging… it is actually building.
I know right! I KNOOOOW RIIIGHT!
I mean, I love Pain and Glory but loved Parallel Mothers more! What were the Spanish selection committee thinking for not choosing it as their Oscar submission?
the usual disdain for Pedro’s ego. And the irony is, this is his less selfish film
France just chose Titane as its submission. Interesting.
Who knows, if Dogtooth managed to get a nomination, Titane might get one too.
Wasn’t the rumor about Dogtooth that it was a committee save, and didn’t they just remove the committee this year
I guess you are right, I remember I heard the same rumors at that time. But I didn´t know they removed the committee this year – should not help Titane´s chances, I guess. But besides, I´m pretty sure that committee might have helped many worthy contenders to get a nomination that would have otherwise been overlooked. The Foreign Language category has been pretty conventional and boring in the years before the committee save (even though we don´t know for sure which nominees were saved in the past).
hahaha cool.
I don’t think it will get nominated though
Wise decision.
Just so you know, there’s already a little controversy…
https://twitter.com/ElsaKeslassy/status/1447972528828436488?s=20
1. Will Smith (King Richard)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of The Dog)
3. Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)
5. Peter Dinklage (Cyrano)
I’d say…
1. Smith
2. Dinklage
3. Cumberbatch
4. Washington
5. di Caprio
Balfe is officially submitted in Supporting according to Variety
The top ten bond films I like
1. Goldfinger
2. Dr. No
3. Skyfall
4. No time to die
5. Live or let die
5. The spy who loved me
6. From Russia with love
7. Moonraker
8. Casino royale
9. Spectre
10. Goldeneye
Now seeing no time to die for the third time, it should get nominated for best picture, imo. NTTD takes a different approach to the iconic spy and turns it into solid gold that bond fans will gaggling about for years
No Time to Die is an enjoyable, entertaining film. But Best Picture? Come on. It’s not even a top 5 Bond film.
Top 6 for me still are:
1. From Russia With Love
2. Goldfinger
3. On Her Majesty’s Secret Service
4. Casino Royale
5. The Spy Who Loved Me
6. Skyfall
Agree. To me it fell short. If Skyfall, which really set the bar for modern day Bond films, so soulful, complex and sympathetic, couldn’t transcend its nominations beyond the tech categories, what’s the hope for No Time to Die? My opinion only. The pacing was off, it has long dull stretches where I was hopelessly bored, it can’t compete on visual spectacle (many action set pieces were none too thrilling), a villain that ranks among the least memorable among Bond villains, nonsensical third act that was nonsensical even by Bond standards, and I suspect it was aiming for sad and tragic undercurrents instead of cheesy and conventional melodrama. An overly complicated plot that didn’t need to be overly complicated without doing anything much in service of the characters. It bears repeating that this is my opinion only because people are so sensitive.
Indiewire’s 137 fall festival critics survey- TPOTD dominates including Best Film.
The Best Films at the Fall Festivals
1. “The Power of the Dog”
2. “Titane”
3. “The Worst Person in the World”
4. “Drive My Car”
5. “Petite Maman”
6. “Memoria”
7. “Dune”
8. “Red Rocket”
9. “Bergman Island”
10. “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
11. “Spencer”
12. “Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy”
13. “Parallel Mothers”
14. “C’mon C’mon”
15. “The Lost Daughter”
Venice – Best Film
“The Power of the Dog”
Telluride – Best Film
“C’mon C’mon”
TIFF – Best Film
“The Power of the Dog”
NYFF – Best Film
“The Worst Person in the World”/ “The Power of the Dog”
Best Documentaries of the Fall Festivals
1. “Flee”
2. “The Velvet Underground”
3. “The Rescue”
Best Directed Film of the Fall Festivals
1. “The Power of the Dog” (Jane Campion)
2. “Titane” (Julia Ducournau)
3. “Drive My Car” (Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
Best Screenplay of the Fall Festivals
TIE: “The Worst Person in the World”/”Drive My Car”
Best Performance of the Fall Festivals
1. Renate Reinsve, “The Worst Person in the World”
2. Agathe Rousselle, “Titane”
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”
4. Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”
5. Tilda Swinton, “Memoria”
There is no just universe in which The Power of the Dog doesn’t win everything this season, holy crap what a film
The movie was great, especially Cumberbatch and Johnny Greenwood’s score. What exactly happened at the end? Did Peter killed Phil somehow (poison) ? Did he secretly worked with his mom and stepfather to get rid of Phil ? Or I missed the point completely ?
Peter didn’t want to get rid of Phil – I think they had sex. Phil died because he got anthrax from a dead animal – I think from the hide Peter got from the dead cow, as he was handling it with a big cut on his hand while making the rope for Peter.
Thanks. But what exactly was the twist at the end? Twist that some viewers are talking about. That Phil is closeted homosexual was obvious from the half of the movie.
Movie was great but really not sure about Best Picture win. It is a slow-burn, sophisticated, arthouse drama. A kind of movie which rarely wins these days. But Campion should be clear favorite for direction.
I don’t think there was a twist other than what you mention – though I agree it’s not really a twist, but a secret slowly revealing itself throughout the film.
It’s already ruining the entire awards season for me by the way, because I at the moment feel so strongly about the film that I inevitebly will get my heart shattered when it doesn’t win Best Picture. But (and this is entirely my clouded judgement talking) I don’t see how AMPAS can deny this film (I’m sure they’ll find a way.)
I find the scene where Phil doesn’t come to dinner with the governor because he doesn’t want to bathe hillarious. It probably wasn’t supposed to be funny but it worked as comic relief to me.
I was under the impression that Peter having sex with Phil was part of the plan all along. The kiss between Rose and George at the end with Peter watching them kind of implies that there was some plan to get rid of Phil – with all three being part of it. But I’m probably too much into it.
Like sixth sense & crying game, the big reveal shouldn’t be spoilt.
I’m surprised that people don’t understand what actually happened
The ending has been spoilt on other websites, I’ve read the book. Please don’t post it, even hidden.
Like sixth sense & crying game, the big reveal shouldn’t be spoilt.
I’m surprised that people don’t understand what actually happened
Peter did kill Phil and I doubt they had sex. I do agree there was sexual tension between them.
Interesting, why do you think that? Peter couldn’t have foreseen that Rose would sell the hides, so he couldn’t have planned to get Phil killed with his hide. Unless it’s a grand conspiracy which I highly doubt.
Ah I see, I most certainly will rewatch the film and might read the book as well.
Trust me. If it wins, you’ll have people here up in arms about how it won only because of woke liberals wanting to reward little films made by women that are disconnected from the rest of America and will signal the ruin of the Oscars no longer keen to reward big screen big cinema big spectacle multi-quadruple million dollar blockbusters like No Time to Die.
“Last year, it was neither a secret nor any surprise that it was going to be a year without a white man winning anything”
Apparently Mank winning Cinematography and The Father picking up 2 awards and The Sound of Metal claiming Editing and Sound… nah… those weren’t wins. Those awards weren’t given to white men. (And in most of those cases they were quite deserved.)
You’re right, Sasha, focus on the story you want to tell. *eye roll*
After having to endure the whole The Hurt Locker season when we were told that one of most overrated and little seen of BP winners had to win because it was directed by a woman, this is quite the 180.
Japan just chose Hamaguchi’s Drive my car as their submission and I really, really hope it gets the Oscars. Amazing movie
https://deadline.com/2021/10/no-time-to-die-second-weekend-venom-2-dune-china-global-international-box-office-1234853488/
Here the only bloody ‘ signal’ Awards season need to wake up and take notice of I convinced even if Fukunaga said some stupid things no way for Bomd potentially set public and critics in awe 84% is good enough for serious Oscar contender then forget power of a dog of a film, forget belfast , I admit forget other untested films may be successful not been released yet like Scott’s movies other contenders if Oscar and awards season that desperate to revive their perceptions unite both critics and film going public than for g-d’s sake swallow u pride (what little u have ) in our eyes and make ‘ no time to die’ the frontrunner outright this awards season. It patently clear obvious to us time for academy to return where it warranted surely is waaay overdue them not settle for -” compromise’ big screen films that we know only be half baked success in public eyes go ALL IN FOR ONE BIGGEST MOST IMPORTANT BLPCKBUSTER EVENT FILMS SIGNAL RETURN OF BIG SCREEN MOVIE AT IT BEST THAT OF BOND 25!! Why the fuk not pple?
I mean heaven forbid Awards season would dare to be stupid enough to ponder ‘ by making Bond 25 a frontrunner big time comtender or maybe amongst most Oscar nominated film , what we got to lose?” I mean fukin really ????!!
No Time to Die $56m opening weekend in the U.S.; $300m global. Needs word of mouth to be fully profitable; $350m budget (250m/movie, $100m/marketing). Gonna need to finish around $900m to get in the black. Some calling it disappointing B.O.
With that budget, nothing is a disappointment, to me, during the pandemic. I’m only just starting to see friends and family venture out to the theaters.
Are number of you who are hyperventilating more than two films deserve to do so compared to NO time to die and last Duel and house of Gucci and Dune and the French dispatch and Coda ..
That is it any coincidence that awards season preferences thus far ‘ Power of the dog ‘ and Belfast’ which, unlike other films mentioned has to be said they are not purist cinematic achievements they are driven by sociological mulch that Oscar has turned to thematically with same old family tension driven drivel. Front and centre of plot using backdrop of big screen setting as merely background.
And unlike other contenders .. these 2 films cinematically stick within contemporary pro- twitter friendly modern iteration of Oscar bait style films.
Both Power of the Dog and Belfast are frankly weak cousins to far superior ‘ news of the world’ I may add got it fair share Oscar nominations e last year for epic western drama…and In the Name of the Father which is simply far superior to Belfast. Far deeper more compelling and powerful too.
The other films I listed are pure huge scale achievement s that do not lean on the twitterati obsessed family tension style melodrama at core of their ploy to drive rest of the movie.
Therefore if the Academy are genuinely totryconvince us they changing their self inflicted untold levels of damage publicly to their sinking diminishing reputation the ONLY way to embrace return of big screen movie is to reject big screen films that anchored therefore less challenging film achievement in Power of the Dog and Belfast neither these films should b strong best picture contenders as other film titles far more ambitious, compelling and intriguing without moralistic lever switched to overdrive far bolder too.
What u think ?
You’ve seen Power of the Dog?
I’m always fascinated by the topics you happen to consider “sociological mulch”
…by definition ‘ the films that are clearly tailored to the social media crrowd not the common sense crowdn thast do NOT reflect tradiytional essence of filmmaking and not borne of original or innovative thinking..but films driven by sociological analysis driven issues…thought you knew what i meant? you can be ‘fascinated’ but let me ask you this why is oscars ratings drowning out? in a pool of their own self inflicted blkoody wounds? rating decline is NOT just cos of a lack of charismatic host…it cos true entertainment engaging movies that frre themselves from shackles of political correctness fall by the wayside and are undermined by awards season own excessive one eyed pbsession with for unjustified reasons trying to earn validation from the social media minority… and if awards season did NOT go down this path? i wager with you even without a host they be huge improvement in awars season build up and appeal before global media…not just as it become globally that only makes news story after oscar noms are given.
So i ask you do ratings matter? yes it cinludes BOTH online and tracitional tv viewing? which the latter always exist- not everyone has high speed functioning net access even if trend is going that way…well if oscar and the pro socio moronic twitterati apologists say it does not then they are disconnected completely from oscars history…oscars history pre last 15 years show irrespective of a change of the times..that every OTHER DECADE least handful of films each decade and era prior were celebrated by the masses and not just the out of touch sli9tists..you know this…everyone does…it just a question if OScar and awards season start respecting the traditional foundation builders within their insitution ..cos longer they disregard that regardless of evolution of society aroundf it…greater the rift between groups that run the academy..problem is control is only at hands of twitter legitimists…and the moral police…well i been right every since this trend mate..we agree to disagree but i going on fact…look at majority of films been favoured in oscar nominations and awards season and won…you see oscar has all but abandoned its soul…
i hope year upon year to be proven wrong..i NEVER wanted to be right but i hate to say ‘ i told everyone so’ this year? i NOT expecting LAst Duel, House of Gucci , Dune, No Time to Die, be favoured cos they not the faction that control the academy..moral policing of the academy has gone to far and so ampas , the guilds etc have been compromised…
it in their power to find a way back..this is how i define problems and cancer reflective from declining flatlining ratings…problems with sociological mulch i far from only one i guarantee you amongst film fans who thinks this…otherwise how else you explain such a clif of a fall in ratings? think bout that hm,m?
News of the World was good, not great, if you ask me…
Licorice Pizza? Seriously?
Yes, seriously. You have something against PTA?
The 10 best picture nominees imho could be
Belfast
Mass
Dune
Cyrano
Licorice pizza
No time to die
The last duel
King Richard
Power of the dog
Spencer
No Time to Die and The Last Duel are unlikely. Probably Mass also.
No time to die is better than the previous 2 Star Wars films tlj and rise of skywalker. It’s also right up there with dr no, Goldfinger and from Russia with love. The last duel is a Ridley Scott picture. Rs movies almost always get some nominations
Ridiculous arguments.
No time to die has a Possible chance at best picture, unlikely but possible. Mass won’t get in the top ten. Last duel maybe comeback for Ridley Scott but the movie epic has won before ala lotr, gladiator and braveheart. The one I really want to get in is no time to die which will probably get technical nominations
Now, you’re speaking with much more sense.
Oscar needs a new category: Best action/adventure film
Meh…
Best action/adventure film, best romance film, best horror film, best children’s film, best medieval history film, best comedy, best thriller, best sci-fi, best performances in each gawddamn genre, where does it end. Please don’t go the way of the Grammys.
Mass is almost your certified SAG Ensemble nominee and a critical darling. Question with Mass, is how many SAG nominations it will have… 1 to 5, anything goes.
I’d put it, at this point, probably as #3 for the nomination for Best Picture, and #2 for the win
Not convinced it will have strong legs enough to run the whole race.
italics: guessed final winner.
Picture:
– almost locked: Belfast
– looking extremely likely: The Power of the Dog
– looking an almost safe bet: King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Spencer
– indie sensations: Mass, Coda
– possible, but will need precursors and/or raves: Licorice Pizza, C’mon C’mon, Cyrano, Tick Tick Boom, West Side Story, Nightmare Alley, The Last Duel, House of Gucci, Passing, Being the Ricardos, Don’t look up
– foreign language sensation possible spot: Parallel Mothers, A Hero, Flee, The Hand of God, Titane (admittedly an extreme longshot)
– early bird spot: In the Heights (would be a lock, but so many musicals this year, so now it is a longshot pending on everything else to bomb, it’s almost forgotten by now)
– blockbuster possible spot: No Time to Die, The Eternals,
Probably at this point, if I had to pick up the 10 nominees… (* Director nomination)
Belfast *
The Power of the Dog *
King Richard
The Tragedy of Macbeth *
Spencer
Mass
Licorice Pizza *
… and from this, everything gets muddy…
1 Musical: I’d go with Cyrano. I think West Side Story might feel as a vanity project from Spielberg, and also will suffer from comparisons with In the Heights, which has already been raved. I think there’s a Miranda overdose, so Tick Tick Boom and In the Heights may not make the cut, cancelling each other out. Cyrano stands out as the different, and is heavy on technicals (Production Design, Costume, Cinematography and Make Up) and is the musical with a best chance to score an acting nomination.
1 genre: Nightmare Alley * Technicals are going to play big on this one. (EDITED) No, I did not forget about Dune, Part I. They already got into that alley with Lord of the Rings and probably regret that they focused so much on the series, specially after it generated that overblown disaster that The Hobbit is, and I am doubting, they will be eager to consider as Best Picture material, the first half of one book (they could have done with It, by the way). So Dune, to me, it’s a no-go beyond Adapted Screenplay and technicals. I am convinced it won’t go anywhere close to Best Picture or Director – nor any performer, no SAG Ensemble nom, either… not in front of other ensembles like West Side Story, In the Heights, Cyrano, Mass, Coda, Nightmare Alley… even Parallel Mothers, if you ask me (Almodovar films feature always great ensemble work, it’s overdue for a SAG Ensemble nom… just think of All about my Mother, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown, Bad Education, Volver (Female Ensemble Cannes winner for Best Actress) and so many more… I really can’t see Dune’s ensemble being remembered by SAG.
1 wild card: I’d generally go with Parallel Mothers (strong competitor for an acting nom, screenplay and directing, and poignant subject matter with a really strong second half of the film that launches it to another level, as reviews have pointed out), but I am going to bet at this point on Don’t Look Up, because of the sensational cast, McKay’s recent track record, and the need of some pure comedy in this line up.
With these 10 Best Picture nominees…
Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
I’d say that the most vulnerable would be PTA and GdT, and this is where I think the lone director spot may go to Almodovar, Sorrentino, Fahardi or some other foreign/indie sensation.
Actor (following the BP nomination rule)
Leonardo di Caprio, Don’t Look Up (his comedic timing paid off in The Wolf of Wall Street)
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (given the trailer, the film looks BP calibre)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
As alternates, I think Cumberbatch almost fits the bill for the surprising last-minute-snub and di Caprio might feel weak due to the comedy factor… so I am looking as possible lone non-BP candidates to Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos, read some buzz that Kidman and Bardem’s castings pay off, and the Sorkin screenplay may shine), Andrew Garfield (Tick tick boom – but it’s di Caprio or him, not both, imho) and Joaquin Phoenix for C’mon, C’mon (riding on his post-Joker status) or even Nicholas Cage for Pig, if the critics awards (not-so) surprisingly champion him as a come back (even thought he actually “came back” with Mandy). The win, I think it’s Smith vs. Dinklage…
Actress
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Kirsten Stewart, Spencer
I’m following my instinct that Being the Ricardo’s buzz is going to be honest and Kidman and Bardem knock it out of the park. Bardem, I have doubts, but if Kidman impersonates to perfection Lucille Ball, she’s completely in, and a threat for the win (but may cancel each other out with Chastain, beware). Stewart is peaking too early and is too clearly, the one to beat, but for the win, any of these five, I could see taking the golden guy home, including McDormand, making history. Alternates? The most obvious, Jennifer Hudson in Respect, but the film is already kind of forgotten? She’ll need strong support by critics, as the Comedy/Musical Globe isn’t in the horizont. They love Olivia Colman, so she may sneak in for The Lost Daughter, Jodie Comer probably will be the best thing in The Last Duel (and has her successful Free Guy this year, as the body of work card), and there are plenty of possibilities. But I stick so far to those five.
Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Jason Isaacs, Mass
Jesse Plemmons, The Power of the Dog
alternates: maybe a Mass double nom here with Reed Birney also making the cut, Willem Dafoe earning another nom but no win for Nightmare Alley, JK Simmons in Being the Ricardos… or the first Harry Potter kid earning a nom, oddly Dudley Dursley, the only muggle kid of importance in the books and films, Harry Melling, joining the “The Tragedy of Macbeth” shower of nominations, helped by interacting with costars as Washington and McDormand. Twisted possibility – wisely pointed out by Nathaniel Rogers, is that Val Kilmer may earn a nom for “Top Gun: Maverick”, given how much buzz and warm reception is there for his documentary “Val” (which I think may win Doc, if submitted?)
Best Supporting Actress
Dame Judi Dench, Belfast
Ann Dowd, Mass
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Marlee Matlin, Coda (oh, Apple is going to push this one, SO MUCH)
Martha Plimpton, Mass
alternates: Catriona Balfe, Belfast quite obviously, but also Rita Moreno (West Side Story), Olga Merediz (In the Heights, if critics champion her), Toni Colette and/or Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) among other possibilities, but extremely open field.
Adapted Screenplay
Coda
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
that seems a solid quintet to me… I don’t think a musical is making the cut here (which is kind of unfair) so for alternates I’d go with the performer turned writer rule (Passing / Rebecca Hall; The Lost Daughter / Maggie Gyllenhaal) or The Humans, which may get heat from a possible SAG Ensemble nom. I am unsure that Damon/Affleck can repeat it again with The Last Duel…
Original Screenplay
Belfast
Flee – totally wild card, I admit it, but just check out the trailer… this is BP calibre, kind of Waltz with Bashir or Collective
Licorice Pizza
Mass
Parallel Mothers
alternates… well, actually Don’t look up can’t miss this, if it earns a BP nom, can it? It’s the one sacrificed to let Flee in because it can make BP thanks to acting support and still miss Screenplay due to the insane competition in 2021… Spencer, Being the Ricardos, C’mon C’mon, The French Dispatch, King Richard, A Hero, The Hand of God, Titane, Pig… so many other contenders…
Oh, House of Gucci? I keep with my vibe, it’s going to be a huge razzie contender. Sorry.
You’re underestimating Cooper for Best Actor. Judging on the book, his role is great and he is centerpiece of the whole movie. Plus – his movie will probably be BP nominee and he is beloved by the Academy. I really don’t think Garfield, Bardem or Phoenix having advantage over him.
Dinklage or Garfield, just one of them. I don’t think both are happening.
Bardem is a long shot at this moment.
Phoenix’ movie will be, sadly, forgotten by A24
DiCaprio is of course big box-office draw and AMPAS can go crazy again for McKay but judging on the trailer, it’s the same gags and body language he used in The Wolf of Wall Street and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Maybe they are tired of it already?
And Cage is absolutely not happening. Come on…
I think you’re a bit optimistic on Spencer and Mass. And you underestimate House of Gucci.
Cooper will have a scene-stealing turn in Licorice Pizza. Same with Garfield’s The Eyes of Tammy Faye, both of them would have easier to get nominated in Supporting than in Lead for their other films.
Bardem being a longshot? At this point I highly doubt it. One of the best actors at work, reading the lines by Sorkin, in an acting duel with Kidman, and portraying / mimmicking an icon? People understimating Being the Ricardos, probably don’t know that it is NOT a biopic, but it just focus on a part of Lucille/Desi’s relationship. It promises to be really, really intense.
Cage is a wild card… I could see him being recognised by some critics circles here and there, and suddenly engaged in the game. But… who’s going to pay for his campaign? He’s broke – or so I think – and “Pig” did not do any money… it will depend – heavily – on AMPAS sympathies and “Pig” developing a status as a cult film… it will be difficult, but there’s a whole narrative right there, that could make it happen
House of Gucci’s trailer was pure camp… 2 inches away from Showgirls status (don’t get me wrong, I would love to see an overblown budget John Waters-like film multinominated at the Oscars! The only one that gave me hopes of delivering a good performance, was Hayek… but Gaga, Pacino and Leto kind of promise over-the-top fun). I mean, really. And Scott is as good as he can (Alien, Blade Runner, The Martian) or as bad as he can (G.I. Jane). I always preferred Tony to Ridley, he was more consistent in quality, even if he did not make any masterpiece.
Being the Ricardos can happen of course but huge miscasting is strong in that one. Tbh, it looks more like Razzie contender than Oscar hopeful. I know your dream is to have Javier and Penelope together at the ceremony but I think she has much better chance (and even she is not safe).
Please, read Nightmare Alley by William Lindsay Gresham. Main character has a lot of stealing scenes. And is played by actor already nominated four times for an Oscar, beloved by the Academy. To say that he has more stealing turn in Licorice Pizza – based just on trailer – is ludicrous.
as I pointed out, it has been already said that casting actually paid off… I don’t think I need to remember another protested cast, as Heath Ledger’s Joker and how it went after the film was actually released?
For judging Being the Ricardos’ project and chances, you have to remind yourself, it is NOT a biopic but it seems to be an intense drama perfectly located in time (and probably space), written by one of the best writers at work, and starred by two of the very best actors of their generation. It may miss Best Picture, and even Original Screenplay – due to how insane competition is, in that category – but on acting? Kidman, Bardem, Simmons… electric actors, all Oscar winners. Understimate it at your own risk.
(remember, last year Sacha Baron Cohen, got nominated for a Sorkin film)
I am aware that this movie isn’t “from cradle to grave” traditional biopic and it just focuses on one period/aspect of their lives. And that’s good. But I’m still standing on what I said above. As for the first reactions…they are usually unreliable (you would think there are masterpieces with almost each new movie release). Let’s wait for official ones.
Personally, I think Trial of Chicago 7 was terrible movie and simply had no business being nominated for Best Picture. Being the Ricardos can’t be that underwhelming so you’re probably right on Ricardos’ chances this year. But don’t forget – this year is much more stacked than the last one.
I really like Bardem and he delivered some of my favorite performances over the past three decades but I think many here would agree with me saying that he is a long shot right now – at least, until his movie is seen.
this is the case of trusting the actor and the material vs possible miscast because nobody ever thought even remotely of him, playing that real life, well-known character.
I, for myself, don’t doubt for a second Bardem and Kidman may knock out of the park Sorkin’s dialogues. Problem being, if the movie will be any good (if Sorkin didn’t direct, I’ll have higher hopes). But I doubt it will fail on the acting side… actually on the contrary, if Kidman was still good on The Stepford Wives (one of the few misfires of one of my fave directors, Frank Oz), she will be good in anything, literally. Bardem, I never saw him give a bad performance… actually his average level is Awards-worthy, even in lesser known films.
Great breakdown of the top categories! First things first, I don’t know where in post-production is House of Gucci at this moment but the lack of festival appearance of it makes me really believe it’s not the “contender” most are expecting it to be. The trailer also didn’t give me high hopes.
I think Parallel Mothers has a shot in getting in the top categories tbh. The warm and enthusiastic reception at NYFF kinda gives us a hint that both the critics and the industry will probably embrace it, not to mention some leftover love from Pain and Glory. Hoping and currently predicting Penelope Cruz and Pedro Almorovar in Best Actress, Directing and Original Screenplay.
I would actually want Cruz to win it this year if it weren’t for Kristen Stewart’s poingnant performance in Spencer. A film which I also think has a good shot for BP.
For now I’ll have PTA and Coen out of BD and have Almodovar and Sorrentino in. Del Toro will have the goodwill of the foreign and Hollywood support if Nightmare Alley gets critics love so he’ll be safe.
That’s pretty much it for Best Actor right? But I’m skeptical on DiCaprio since his comedic performances usually depends on the strength of his material and both QT and Terry Winter’s writing understood him hence great performances. I didn’t felt that in Don’t Look Up trailer coz if it’s a preview of the “comedy” aspects of the film then it sounds bland and annoying specially the Jonah Hill part.
I actually think it’s Kodi Smit-McPhee who will get in the suppoting actor over Plemons. His performance in The Power of the Dog is one of the film’s highlights along with Cumberbatch and Dunst’s!
Kodi vs Plemons… Plemons has been scene-stealing for so long. I think he has the advantage, as he is a well-recognisable face and he’s been in too many good films – with great career choices – building up to a general likeable and maybe “due” status. Kodi is on that way, and I wouldn’t be in shock if both get nominated, but at this point, before critics start rolling their awards, I stick with Jesse.
Or maybe it is just my fetish for gingers… who knows? 😉
I think Plemons’ part is too small, and is generally too outshone by the other three to have a real shot. On the other hand, Smit-McPhee could win.
As someone who has seen Flee, I think it’s a much likelier best picture nominee (especially now that we have a top 10 again) than it is a screenplay nominee (even if I have doubts about it being a best picture nomination contender either, perhaps because while I think the movie’s good, it didn’t hit me as hard as it seems to have for many and thus it doesn’t feel so profoundly different from other documentaries of recent years that had no best picture buzz that everything would shift).
Also, Top Gun: Maverick is coming out in 2022 and I think Corey Hawkins is the more buzzed about supporting actor from The Tragedy of Macbeth
can you believe that I only saw Top Gun, last year, for the 1st time? And oddly enough – because I tend to like Tony Scott’s films – I loathed it.
I think it is the only Tony Scott I heavily disliked… the rest, I kind of was OK with them, and some of them (True Romance, specially) liked. Tony was a good artisan…
Seems like no one cares for the Best Animated Feature category.
watch out for “Flee”
I bet it gets the “Waltz with Bashir” treatment: nominated for best foreign film, but not best animated film.
it’s a (seems that gay) man that escaped the Talibans… subject matter couldn’t be more spot on for empathy, right in the moment the Afghan people has been left to the Talibans mercy (which ain’t much) by the international community
Yes, but that’s not the type of movie that often gets nominated for Animated Feature; they usually pick kiddie stuff, and in the end Disney wins anyway.
I can see Flee winning International and/or Documentary though.
Encanto,, Ron’s gone wrong, the Mitchell’s vs the machines, Vivo and Luca are all possibilities in animated feature
Luca *** 1/2 C+
The Mitchells vs the Machines **** 1/2 / B+
Vivo ** / D
Ron’s gone wrong – looks uninteresting
Encanto – looks very good, but after Vivo, I mistrust Miranda’s musicals (didn’t like Hamilton, either, couldn’t finish it… haven’t seen In the Heights yet)
Are they really putting Andrew Garfield in supporting for Tammy Faye?!? I mean, c’mon. The dude is very much the male lead. I just saw the film and, my god, he is so good. I really hope he’s nominated.
I’m sorry but can someone explain why “the globes still matter”? If they aren’t happening this year then no, they don’t matter to this race. Anyone? Am I missing something here?
because the lack of Globes, actually matter. It’s the extra punch that helps musicals and comedies to break through and show some important precursor, at the FYC.
Could anyone who has seen Titane kindly offer up their interpretation on the following points? (Major spoilers)
1. What, in the end, was the point of the whole car-pregnancy-supertitanebaby storyline?
2. What was going on with the weird original biological father? Why did she lock him in the room? Why didn’t he then help the police identify Alexia after she was on the run?
Thank you in advance.
I don’t think there are answers because the entire thing is incredibly superficial.
For your first question I don´t have an answer and I´m leaning towards Michael English´s opinion that the film as a whole is indeed a bit shallow and superficial, but I can offer you my interpretation for your second point: I guess she locked the room to kill her father, cause in the scene before she started a fire, presumably to burn the whole house down. But don´t ask me about her motivation, if you take a closer look to the character´s psychology or the plot you realize it doesn´t make too much sense beyond the stilistic extravaganza and the sketched themes like toxic masculinity, transformation and vulnerability of human bodies etc.
My point of view
Absent father full of guilt made her fill that void with the machines, that lack of humanity was taken over by mechanics. First thing she does when she gets out of the hospital is kissing the car. She has titane on her skull, she’s mostly human with an artificial, cold, touch on her head and this translates in her adult life. After she mets Lindon and the fatherly figure comes back all those contradictory feelings grow and take shape until she can get them out of her
Quite the opposite, actually. It’s the conception of her new human feelings mixed with herself. But again, it’s my personal view
But isn´t the film undermining such attempts of psychologizing the characters? For example, I didn´t see any scene that indicates – as you said – the mechanics have taken over the lack of humanity. The film offers very little to make sense of what is going on with the characters and also with the “supernatural” parts of the story (for example the pregnancy). I felt it´s more effect-seeking than really profound. The film deals with several themes but in my view it falls too short.
Couldn’t agree more. I absolutely loved Ducourneau’s Raw and I think she is an extremely talented filmmaker yet I think what’s clearly evident through her work, especially in Titane, is that she also has a love for shock cinema moments just for the shake of shock cinema moments.
So many brilliant filmmakers have that provocateur aspect as well but for a film that indeed tackles so many interesting topics – from the nature of masculinity and (sexual) identity to childhood trauma and the complexity of family dynamics – it really does fall short of saying anything substantial or cohesive about any of these fascinating subjects. There’s a lot to love about the film (from a filmmaking and technical standpoint first and foremost) but it’s definitely also disappointing to see a director as charismatic relying so heavily on images and not thoughts. The film is fun in a wickedly deranged sort of way but yep, not in the slightest as profound as one might have hoped from a Palme D’or winner from such a talented filmmaker. In can’t believe Spike Lee and the jury in Cannes looked at this and let’s say a flat-out masterpiece like Apichatpong Weerasethakul’s Memoria and went “Yeah, Titane”. They clearly wanted a provocative winner and they gave us one and then some. If only they’d chosen a better, deeper film.
Totally agree, but I would at least give credit to this Jury´s decision for choosing some out-of-the-box candidate. For example: Even though I have a much larger overlap of my own preferences with the Palm d´Or winners than the Best Picture Oscar winners there also have been some lame Cannes decisions in recent years – like awarding Ken Loach two times for mediocre films like “I, Daniel Blake” or “The wind that shakes the barely”. If they get it wrong (subjectively spoken), they should at least pick something provocative. In this respect, I´m not angry with this decision, especially in awarding a young and promising female director – even though I believe her film is not artistically satisfying.
And besides: I haven´t seen Memoria yet but I´m really looking forward to!
Oh man you should definitely see Memoria in a movie theater. An experience to say the least. I rarely use the word masterpiece for a modern film and to say Weerasethakul’s film deserves it is an understatement. Both him and Tilda are geniuses.
And yep, you nailed it when it comes to the mentality the jury of an esteemed festival should have. I hope Ducourneau makes in the future film’s worthy of her indisputable talent and not just shock value flicks. As I’ve said already Titane has a lot to love anyway.
Just came home from a screening of Romanian filmmaker’s Radu Jude Bad Luck Banging Or Loony Porn which won the Golden Bear Award at this year’s Berlin Film Festival. Provocative AND thought-provoking as well. So, so good. Can’t wait for Jude’s next film.
I completely agree about Memoria (if that isn’t the best film of the year, this will be an incredibly strong year for film) but I must say I disagree about Bad Luck. Perhaps it’s just that this was my first Radu Jude film but I found especially the mid-section to be incredibly pretentious, like a bad improvised version of a current-day Godard essay film.
Well yeah, I totally get that that mid-section of Bad Luck might not be for everyone but personally I found it such a brilliant collection and deconstruction of so many painful historical events but also perceptions, traditions and forms of human behavior that it could stand as a terrific short film on its own.
The film is such a wild, impressionistic ride but I loved how it wasn’t provocative for the sense of being provocative but instead extremely thought-provoking, political, bitter and deeply, deeply urgent. Jude is one of the most fascinating filmmakers of today imho but I totally understand how that middle part of the film or the film as a whole can be an alienating experience or seem pretentious. Definitely not an easy recommendation to anyone.
To tell you the truth I’m not very fond how the film is directed although I appreciate Ducournau’s different approach to narration. I got the impression that she wanted so hard to avoid any underlined scenes that most of the time the audience got to figure out what just had happened. Too subtle for so little information. Last July I got out of the theater in utter confussion, I’ve been putting all the pieces together since then but I cannot dissociate the mechanic part of the coldness and heartless personality of the main character. The fireman (ha!) represents the warmth, of course, and that’s the main metaphore I can see. I know Ducournau told France Culture than she once dreamt she gave birth to a car engine and the whole film comes out of this image
I seriously wondered during the film if she would finally give birth to a small car – that would have been hilarious! 😉
‘ Signals’ bleh…more moralistic excessively politicised socialistic gesturing frankly the deeper in the dog shit awards seasonwill sink in our eyes , the bigger the hole all of awards season will sink in …more marginalised awards season will become ..that you could shovel all awards ceremonies in one deep hole 6 feet under.
The reason I and I strongly suspect IF of course it always a big IF for awards season to start fast acting on trust deficit that a frickin canyon in lack of trust behind pple that truly support film industry drive their purpose for existence namely us the film goers en masse, that they won’t.
Leading to yet more films that not challenging nor as crowd pleasing as their stylised presentations make them out to be, hardly innovative , game changing or asbig potentially eventful as other more film goer fancied contenders ,
I talking of overrated ‘ Power of the dog’ and ‘ belfast’ we do NOT need yet more films out family tensions with sociological commentary and white noise drowning out whatever nice visuals these films may have …
We NEED films with gusto esp due to scourge of pandemic that SCREAM IM BAAACK with a vengeance as in ‘ Films like :” House of Gucci” and ” Last Duel ” for mine , “Dune” ( though I it a duology unfortunately for it I feel makes more sense for it to win after ptII of it story wraps up ) , ‘ tragedy of macbeth’ , ‘ French dispatch ‘ , etc these films that maximise potential of big screen immersion a d experience and MINIMIZE sociological moralistic commentary in favour of sweeping film audiences to world’s nd intrigue and characters these films create, and let not forget of course Bond 25!!
Do we REALLY need more moral police mentality family tension drivel films like power of the dog and belfast when last year anyway we had far superior ” news of the world ” and 2 decades ago we had ” in the name of the father” the barometer Irish/ family drama by which belfast should be measured against that frankly doesn’t even measure up to.
You all get what u mean ? Frankly there plenty other films desrrve be frontrunners over power of the dog ( of a film ) and belfarce see?
I really hope The French Dispatch is not going to be ignored. I loved it, but even accepting (grudgingly) that it won’t be everyone’s cup of tea, it’s a technical marvel. At a bare minimum and ought to be recognized as such.
THIS!! The film is an absolute technical marvel and as far as I’m concerned a blast from start to finish, full of astonishing turn from an expectedly awe-inspiring Wes Anderson cast. I especially loved Lea Seydoux in the Benicio Del Toro story. She just crashed it, such an extraordinary actress.
“The industry is still going to be prioritizing non-white, non-male winners wherever they can, partly because they see themselves as “good people doing good things,” but also because they will get called out on Twitter if they don’t”
The more the Academy and the Guilds the this mentality and line of thinking the greater the decline of once publicly respected and revered Academy awards the even less than ever before in ensuing years public globally will follow build up or care to have anticipation for awards season.
It has to be said I saw 2 outstanding trailers for both Ridley Scott’s films BOTH which are impressive enough to me to be best picture / major category Oscar contenders .
Both the Last Duel and House of Gucci could not be even more contrasting in their setting and style yet as non sequel potential event big screen films …one contemporary and one period film Ridley Scott ala legendary film maker who been unforgivably snubbed to win best director on number of occasions now in Oscar history who should got his breakthrough could well emerge , whether Oscar like it or not or the guilds as the film maker with not one but possibly even 2 best picture contenders….both these films is Scott sending a blunt counter signal…LOOK at the films on it merit not obsessive self destructive politically correct horseshoe that emitted a putrid stench that drives audiences if awards season away.
Look at epic sweep blended with boldness and grit and dare of Last Duel and look at slick production value and compelling twists and tribute and dark side of evolution of worlds most famous fashion brand in House of Gucci.
Very few film-makers have more than one prominent film that showcases true potential of big screen fare. But Ridley Scott along with elite few others is one of only 3 or so filmmskers in all of Hollywood who has capability to execute same high standards of quality and public engagement and excitement in contemporary drama thriller ( Gucci) as he does his traditional old style period epic. ( Last Duel).
When we talk bout signals fact the Sasha highlights all these peripherals esp part of Oscar worrying bout appeasing the twiiterati moral police ought to concern us not for first time and far too often in last decade plus overall in Oscar outcomes and contenders history…films that Should get more nominations and perform better I’m key guilds of calibre of Gucci OT Last Duel this year get undermined…not cos they not good enough or amazing a film making achimrfrmrnt of which even before their release I can’t wait to see Scott Masterfoods both of them…it cos Oscar and awards season rather listen to noisy minority online then trust in their own and pple make films exist for pple like us… they awards season as whole are blatantly ignoring one key ingredient that key signal making Academy great again relevant to us make yd care the fukim BIG Screen movie ffs!!
I think it’s fine to be bullish in The Last Duel. It looks amazing. It is apparently good. It does not fit the mold of an Oscar movie, really (anymore). But why not champion it until it “sticks” or “drizzles away”? Why not? 🙂
According to Variety (and some other sources) it seems that House of Gucci and Nightmare Alley will have world premiere in Academy Museum of Motion Pictures in Los Angeles this month.
Unusual move, if true – so, literally the first people who will be watching these much-anticipated films are the ones who will vote for the Oscars. Hmm…
I don’t think it’s that unusual. I remember movies like American Hustle, The Big Short and Little Women premiering at guild screenings, this time it’s just not the SAG nominating committee or whoever but the Academy because they want to advertise their new museum
Nightmare Alley mentioned a lot but no Blanchett? I’m expecting her to easily be MVP. Also, If released in time, I’m expecting Being the Ricardos to receive at least a nom for Javier Bardem, (with Kidman also a strong possibility)…I mean who wouldn’t want to see Cruz and Bardem both nominated in the same year!
There’s still confusion if Blanchett has co-lead or supporting role in the movie. When the movie is seen it will be much clearer situation.
Correct. In the 1947 film, she enters in the 2nd half of the film (almost like Jodie Comer dominating the last 3rd of her movie). Unless they expand Blanchett’s role, they may just have a plethora of female Supporting contenders from the same film to deal with.
I could see Bardem and/or Kidman coming in hot very late. But is it still not confirmed that the film is coming out in late December?
I haven’t seen a confirmed release date but hoping someone has?
Sorkin confirmed in an interview last week that Amazon will release it in December.
If Twitter is so powerful with Oscar voters, why did Green Book win? Why didn’t Gerwig get a BD nomination? Why did Hopkins win? Twitter doesn’t get what they want any more often than I do, yet you continue to insist that it controls everything. Why?
Why should we assume that every POC actor who gets nominated and/or wins only got that because they weren’t white?
“Why should we assume that every POC actor who gets nominated and/or wins only got that because they weren’t white?”
Because the entire right wing culture war persecution house of cards would collapse if we didn’t. It’s easier to pretend we are a meritocracy rather that seat more people at a bigger table.
I would LOVE to see video of the esteemed and politically passionate founder of this site walk up to Chloe Zhao and tell her “the only reason you won was because you were Chinese”. Social media/internet/Twitter etc unfortunately have killed our ability to remember what public civility is. Or ethics. Or decency.
Speaking 0f Ch0le Zha0 I saw N0 Time T0 Die which I liked even th0ugh it was way t00 l0ng ! Bef0re the film I saw a new trailer f0r Eternals { was n0t impressed ) !
2nd trailer not as good as the first
Twitter means nothing to voters, only to Oscar blogger/victims.
Parallel Mothers opened today in Spain. Regretfully, due to my work schedule, I won’t be able to see it, till Tuesday. I may see a double feature with No Time to Die, but I am more inclined to check out, “Mediterraneo” which was the other finalist for the Spanish submission for the Oscar. I still believe that, losing the ticket, is the best thing that could happen to Almodovar’s ambitions of breaking through several categories. Before watching the film, I have it as a contender (either with high chances to longshot) for Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography and Score. Currently sitting at 100% RT (26 reviews) and 85 MC (11 reviews)
History shows that missing foreign film is NOT the best thing that can happen to a film for other categories.
It’s actually the WORST thing that can happen.
Talk to her: winner of Original Screenplay and nominated for Director.
Volver: *this* close of winning Lead Actress
Das Boot: 6 nominations including Best Director
I’m sure, there are plenty more.
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
These a few exceptions to the rule, but l really can’t be bothered.
Sure thing, not been selected by your country is absolutely amazing for your Oscar chances.
Andrew, it’s conditional. If you feel you’ve been snubbed, from an obvious chance, and probably frontrunner status, THEN, the AMPAS might feel you deserve some kind of attention and/or reward.
The best known example, is how Argo – a good, but quite stupid film, specially in the last 20 minutes – won Best Picture, because inexplicably, sensation was that Ben Affleck was snubbed from a Best Director nom (a man, who is a good director, good actor, and good screenwriter, but hardly deserving 3 Oscar wins (if we count the “snub” for directing).
We could really analyze the films that Argo defeated, including masterpieces like Lincoln, Amour, Life of Pi and Beast of the Southern Wild, and great films like Django Unchained or Les Miserables. Not even nominated, masterpieces/great films like The Impossible, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, Skyfall or Marvel’s The Avengers.
Mindblowing, anyone would think Affleck was “robbed” and “Argo” – whose airport scene is beyond ridiculous and therefore anticlimatic unless you leave your brain home and completely forget how airport security actually works, or you’re a racist that thinks iranian wouldn’t have basic security knowledge – in front of non-nominated directors like Whedon, Mendes, boths Andersons, Bayona – really, The Impossible is a masterpiece – or Hooper (who made an absolutely stunning film out of a so pretentious stage musical as Les Miserables).
(and no, I did not forget about ZDT, but that film is a 0 for me)
Agree c0mpletely ! Arg0 winning Best Picture was a j0ke and that Linc0ln l0st Screenplay t0 Arg0 was an ” Infamia .” Pe0ple c0mplain ab0ut Green B00k ! C0mpared t0 Arg0 Green B00k was Citizen Kane !
I agree that a snub can make people vote for you if they care. But do people care enough about Parallel Mothers? Yes, it’s Almodóvar (although I get the impression that to you a new Almodóvar film is perhaps always at least one of the two or three film events of any year, and I don’t think that applies to general Academy members) and yes, like you’ve explained it’s about serious topics but is there any buzz for that movie among Academy members? Were the reviews really good enough to make it something that voters feel like they must see? Is the buzz for Cruz strong enough that they’ll watch the movie for her? If they do, will they only treat is a best actress play and thus nominate it anywhere else? Did they see the movie before it was snubbed and thus were outraged? Is the snub a story that will linger? Now that it was snubbed, will they bother to watch it when they have a pile of other movies they need to get to? Is SPC doing the work to push that movie in best picture when they’ve in recent years been famously pretty bad at campaigning for films like Call Me by Your Name?
All of these questions go into this, it isn’t just “an Almodóvar movie was snubbed by the Spanish nominating committee, we shall shower it with awards”. In particular besides Cruz (who would probably need critics awards to get nominated but that could maybe happen), I think at least Almodóvar has a chance in best director because clearly some members in the directors’ branch pay attention to more than just American films these days and to those people Almodóvar is, as he should be, a big deal. But I think that nomination could happen pretty much independently of the International Feature snub.
see the film. I’ve been spoiled about what is ACTUALLY about, and that’s why I am so intrigued on the US reaction… Spanish reaction, predictably, was to NOT submit it. I think because of the subject matter, even more so, than Almodovar’s love-hate relationship with the Spanish Academy
the actual core of the film, it will be shocking for most, abroad.
Parallel Mothers is no Argo.
Argo showed up everywhere else. It won BAFTA, SAG, PGA & DGA.
It didn’t win BP because Affleck got snubbed; it won BP because it won everything else that season.
I think it’s one of the most overrated winners ever, but there it is.
Bottom line: if Spain didn’t care to choose Parallel Mothers, it loses a lot of skin and profile. Your attempt to create a “backlash” narrative for other categories is wishful thinking.
I’d wait to see Parallel Mothers next tuesday, to judge if it is Argo or no Argo.
Hopefully, is NOT Argo. Like, really. Argo was a Big Mac
You’re missing my point. Your attempt to use Argo to claim Parallel Mothers will ride a backlash wave to nominations is not a good comparison, but I’ll give up now
Variety has it pretty high – for a Foreign Language film – at Picture, Director, Actress and Original Screenplay, already. Maybe you should check out both GoldDerby and Variety’s awards trackers… but I’d investigate a bit about the film – if you can’t wait to see it – and what are actually the key factors that make it different from previous Almodovar works… I understand from what I read from most of the reviews, that it was a subversion of expectations what puzzled some reviewers and made them diminish a bit, the overall judgement on the film. I can’t really ellaborate without actually spoiling the film and the overall flow of it.
In that sense, it kind of reminds me of the genius screenplay of Nacho Vigalondo’s “Colossal”, and how organically twisted genre, ideas, and expectations constantly till one hell of an ending. It’s no secret that “Colossal” became one of my fave films. I’d compare it also, from what I heard, of what Zhao made with “Nomadland”… the 2nd half of “Parallel Mothers” seems to be awesome. And 2nd halfs and endings are what certify the overall sensation on films.
Almodovar is an exception to every rule.
How on Earth was Cruz close to winning best actress for Volver? She lost SAG, she lost the Globe, she lost BAFTA, she lost all the major critics awards and she lost all of them to the same performance, which was also from a much more beloved movie that was also a best picture nominee. She had the Cannes win (which shouldn’t be considered as a precursor), the European Film Award (which isn’t measurable in the Oscar race since her competition wasn’t really in Oscar consideration), the Dublin Film Critics Award and a Hollywood Film Award (which don’t seem to really award achivemements as much as the publicists campaigning those achievements).
All of them… to The Queen. 😉
Remember how HUGE was The Queen (7 Oscar noms, if I remember correctly, including Picture) and how Mirren swept. And still, Cruz won over Mirren at the EFAs.
She was the ONLY chance to reward Volver after the snub at the submission… same scenario, only 4 years before, turned out in an Almodovar win at Original Screenplay.
Cruz didn’t win over Mirren at the EFAs, The Queen wasn’t eligibile there until 2007 (when Mirren won).
And I think using Volver as an example for Parallel Mothers succeeding because of the snub eventually becomes an issue since you’re basically proving that a snub helps by pointing to an example where you presume that a snub helps. Thus your logic becomes: “because a snub helps, a snub helped Volver which means that a snub helps”, which can be condensed into “because a snub helps, a snub helps”, which is not really proof of anything
Saw it last night. A marvelous slow burn.
no spoilers, please, but am I right on the AMPAS probably buying it as a poignant film about poignant issues? A film critic I trust – even if I disagree with him now and then – stated that he was not engaged by the first half, but the second half dragged him so strong that he loved the film overall.
I agree with him. We’ll talk later. No spoilers. Enjoy!
MC update for main contenders
TPOTD 90
Macbeth 88
King Richard 77
Dune 76
Belfast 75
The Last Duel 65
Remember no film has won BP in the preferential era with MC score less than 86%, with one exception GB with 69%.
Only a handful of reviews. Let’s what happens when they all open wide.
Yes, your film’s 75% is looking kinda shaky at the moment.
It’s higher than Green Book, though, and 10-15 datapoints probably isn’t enough reason to claim that a Green Book-type win can never happen again
You’re absolutely right that it could happen again, but I think this data is strong enough to indicate that a low MC film is at least somewhat unlikely to win. Which is probably the strongest thing we can say about any film at the moment, sans precursors.
Yes but I think the “somewhat” is important in your phrasing. Purely speculating but I’d argue that the tail probability of the distribution of MC scores of best picture winners having as low a score as 75 is probably around 5-10%, not less than a percent (which is the type of result where I’d consider writing that the lower bound is actually 86 and we could ignore Green Book completely as a precedent, which I felt Andrew’s phrasing argued).
I didn’t pick up a “hard lower bound” from Andrew’s comment, but maybe that’s because I’m seeing into it what I think. But anyway, even if the probability of a “75-ish” score is 10%, that would still mean a film with 75 is several times less likely to win (without other info) than something with a score of 90, no? To calculate something exact would require some Bayes’ theorem nonsense that I just can’t think about atm, but I think it’s a fair thing to say at the moment that winning BP with a low MC score is a tall mountain to climb for any film.
Absolutely, and I don’t think the road would be easy for Belfast anyway. I just feel that the way people talk about the movie makes me think it is the kind of movie that can perhaps break through those difficulties
Never claimed it couldn’t happen again, just pointing out it’s less common in & both Belfast & King Richard are close to Green Book territory.
To be clear, my issue was mostly with the way you wrote this because to me it sounded very strict (basically that you’re arguing that a movie has to reach 86 in order to not be abnormal best picture winner, and that Green Book is an exception that can just be thrown into a footnote like that when it’s the precedent that a movie like Belfast could follow)
This 0verreliance 0n Meta Critic and R0tten T0mat0es really b0thers me ! D0n’t pe0ple realize That s0me 0f the greatest m0vies ever made were either very divisive 0r dismissed 0utright when they first came 0ut ! In the fifties y0u had m0vies like Night 0f the Hunter , The Searchers , T0uch 0f Evil and Vertig0 . In the sixties y0u had B0nnie and Clyde , 2001 , and The Wild Bunch . Then later y0u y0u had Blade Runner and Heaven’s Gate ! I really d0n’t care if critics fall 0verthemselves 0ver m0vies like S0cial Netw0rk , N0madland and P0wer 0f the D0g 0r 0verl00k films like D0 The Right Thing , Ap0calypse N0w and The Right Stuff when they first came 0ut back in the day ! Pe0ple change and Times change but the m0vies themselves never d0 ! !
n0w
I’m not suggesting MC is a determination of how good a film is, I’m pointing out the correlation with best picture.
It sure tends to trigger some people.
Hey, despite whatever personal differences we have, your instincts about the race are generally on point. You correctly have placed Belfast in a great position if a weary Academy is in a Green Book/King’s Speech kind of mood. Branagh is a great comeback narrative, Americans obviously have a soft spot for Ireland. If the Academy is looking to cool temperatures, that’s how they will go.
Well said.
For The Last Duel to happen it needs to have at least The Martian level of reviews and box-office numbers. That seems rather unlikely.