Remember, there isn’t really an Oscar race now. Rather, there is a pretend Oscar race. There is a lot of chatter on Twitter about the race. It is mostly contained there, with very little spillover. Oh, how I long for the days when there was less of it. But how can I even criticize that, considering my own involvement in building this empire of hype. Either which way, to my mind there is always too much certainty on Twitter about how things will go or won’t go, not enough of fluidity about how things can really change. Those who cover the race, in a sense, believe they create the results.
For instance, right now there is a long thread about which movies the Golden Globes are going to choose. But this conversation is happening outside the recent controversy involving the Globes. I think it will have some impact on what they choose. I don’t know if they will go full BAFTA or not, but it is going to lean in that direction (diversity, equity, inclusion) more than people realize, considering they’ve just formed an alliance with the NAACP. Gone are the days when they just did whatever they wanted to do (ditto BAFTA, ditto the Academy).
Film Twitter’s buzz and hype revolves around the movies that they like best. And these aren’t going to necessarily be what the Oscar voters like best. Although it’s possible they might drive certain high profile awards shows like the Gothams and could influence the committees at BAFTA as to whom they might choose. And certainly the Spirit Awards and perhaps Los Angeles and New York will all be in an ongoing conversation with Twitter about who the winners should be. A Twitter swarm is an overwhelming thing that, in its own way, can have enormous influence. Just look at how influential the single hashtag #OscarsSoWhite has been.
Best Actress is incredibly crowded this year already, with some performances yet to be seen. The hotter the Best Picture contender, the better the chances for a nomination. Best Picture is often driven by male performances, but this year there are plenty of female-driven films that could land in the race — movies like Spencer or The Eyes of Tammy Faye or CODA or The Last Duel or House of Gucci. Some of this is due to female filmmakers being on the rise this year. But some of it is just the changing times. There is no market driving the film industry right now. If you take away the market, the possibilities are endless.
The year started with Jennifer Hudson in the frontrunner’s spot. It wasn’t a prediction that was lighting Film Twitter on fire, however. Either they didn’t like the movie or they didn’t feel excited about the performance — whatever it is, Hudson was not thought to be “The One.” Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana seems to be the one that is gaining most of the support, at least for now. She is quickly followed by Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. These two seem to be the strongest, or at least that remains true over at Gold Derby.
The only actress who is earning the top spot in more places than either Stewart or Chastain is Lady Gaga in House of Gucci. The love for the unseen House of Gucci is so strong, many pundits and Film Twitter are reluctant to consider Jodie Comer in Ridley Scott’s other movie, The Last Duel. Gaga has star power and maybe the movie is as great as the pundits hope it is. I guess we’ll have to see.
There are several pundits who have “gone rogue,” choosing Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter, Cate Blanchett in Nightmare Alley, and Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers.
There are still months to go yet. There are more movies to see. Maybe a consensus will build. Maybe a consensus won’t build. But there is good cause to believe that this year will look a lot like last year in terms of how the various voting bodies will try hard to be diverse and inclusive with their choices.
If we look at the top five contenders at Gold Derby right now, you see:
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Jennifer Hudson is at #7.
And Erik Anderson at AwardsWatch:
1. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (NEON) ↔
2. Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple) ↑
3. Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics) ↑
4. Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
5. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix) ↑
6. Caitriona Balfe – Belfast (Focus Features) ↑
7. Lady Gaga – House of Gucci (MGM/UA) ↓
8. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures) ↓
9. Halle Berry – Bruised (Netflix) ↔
10. Jennifer Hudson – Respect (MGM/UA) ↓
We also know now that Catriona Balfe is going to be placed in the supporting category, so we can just move Gaga up a notch. Erik has the studios listed here because he knows that it matters who is pushing what contender. For instance, much of the hype around Colman in The Lost Daughter is only partly due to the performance and the star — it also has to do with Colman being Netflix’s main play in this category and Netflix is great at the campaigning part. And that, more than anything, makes me think Colman has a better than average shot at cracking the top five. Adding to it is that the director, Maggie Gyllenhaal, is popular among actors. The combination of factors might overcome the film’s somewhat dark-ish theme.
So let’s dig into the era under the expanded Best Picture ballot, to help determine who the nominees for Best Actress may be.
There are three ways these contenders will be measured by industry voters.
- Likability of Star
- Likability of Role
- Likability of Movie
2009:
+Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side — Star/Role/Movie (overdue) — Globe/SAG wins
Helen Mirren, The Last Station — Star
Carey Mulligan, An Education — Role/Movie — BAFTA win
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious — Role/Movie
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia — Star/Role — Globe win
2010:
+Natalie Portman, Black Swan — Star/Role/Movie — Globe/SAG/BAFTA wins
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right — Star/Role/Movie — Globe win
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole — Star
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone — Role/Movie
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine — Star
2011:
+Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady — Star (overdue) — Globe/BAFTA wins
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs — Star
Viola Davis, The Help — Star/Role/Movie — SAG win
Rooney Mara, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo — Star/Role
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn — Star/Role — Globe win
2012:
+Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook — Star/Role/Movie — Globe/SAG wins
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty — Star/Movie — Globe win
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour — Role/Movie — BAFTA win
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild — Role/Movie
Naomi Watts, The Impossible — Star
2013:
+Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine — Star — Globe/SAG/BAFTA wins
Amy Adams, American Hustle — Star/Role/Movie — Globe win
Sandra Bullock, Gravity — Star/Role/Movie
Judi Dench, Philomena — Star/Role/Movie
Meryl Streep, August Osage County — Star
2014:
+Julianne Moore, Still Alice — Star (overdue) — Globe/SAG/BAFTA wins
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night — Star/Role
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything — Role/Movie
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl — Star/Role
Reese Witherspoon, Wild — Star/Role
2015:
+Brie Larson, Room — Role/Movie — Globe/SAG/BAFTA wins
Cate Blanchett, Carol — Star
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy — Star — Globe win
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years — Star
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn — Star/Role/Movie
2016:
+Emma Stone, La La Land — Star/Role/Movie — Globe/SAG/BAFTA wins
Isabelle Huppert, Elle — Star — Globe win
Ruth Negga, Loving — Movie
Natalie Portman, Jackie — Star
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins — Star
2017:
+Frances McDormand, Three Billboards — Star/Role/Movie — Globe/SAG/BAFTA wins
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water — Role/Movie
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya — Star
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird — Star/Role/Movie — Globe win
Meryl Streep, The Post — Star/Movie
2018:
+Olivia Colman, The Favourite — Role/Movie — Globe/BAFTA win
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma — Role/Movie
Glenn Close, The Wife — Star (overdue) — Globe/SAG wins
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born — Star/Role/Movie
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? — Star/Role
2019:
+Renée Zellweger, Judy — Star/Role — Globe/SAG/BAFTA wins
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet — Star/Role
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story — Star/Movie
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women — Star/Movie
Charlize Theron, Bombshell — Star
2020:
+Frances McDormand, Nomadland — Star/Role/Movie — BAFTA win
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom — Star — SAG win
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday — Role — Globe win
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman — Star
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman — Star/Role/Movie
As you can see, only twice in all of that time did Best Picture winners have Best Actress nominees, and only once did Best Picture and Best Actress match.
We’re definitely not at the stage where we should be thinking about winners. Right now we’re just thinking about nominees. But remember, now that the Golden Globes have joined forces with the NAACP, they (like the BAFTA and the Academy) may be on a mission to make their picks more equitable.
You can feel a consensus starting to build when one does build. The trick, though, is to see beyond the consensus on Film Twitter. It doesn’t always match what the consensus among industry voters is going to be.
So how about a poll?
Just saw The Last Duel today and I thought Jodie Comer was sensational. She rivals Chastain for me, at this point. And I wonder if Stewart will be able to eclipse them, for me. TALL order.
Comer is always brilliant, I’m probably seeing the film sometime this week, what did you think about the category placement ? Would a last-minute switch to supporting be proper category fraud or would the three-way split narrative sort of support it ? I think she could be a major threat in supporting while she may not even get the nod in lead. Of course if she is categorically lead, I would prefer her try her luck in that category.
To me, she is co-Lead with the other two actors and, despite her being a relative unknown to AMPAS (where, historically, Supporting campaigns make more sense), she really should be placed Lead. I’ll break-down why:
The 1st segment is Damon’s 45 minutes. She is the first character you see and she is featured sporadically throughout.
The 2nd segment is Driver’s 45 minutes and she is featured much more prominently (the rape, varying perspectives of what we saw in the 1st segment). It’s a two-hander for the duration.
The 3rd segment is Comer’s and it is a good 55 minutes in length (also factoring in the ‘last duel’). It’s basically all her.
There really is never more than 5 minutes that goes by without seeing her in some form – lesser or where the focus is squarely on her. I think a Supporting campaign is quite incorrect. And with the host of legitimate Supporting performances in contention, I actually think she has a better shot in Lead because she simply ‘pops’ more there.
Hope that helped and, I wonder if you’ll agree with me when you see it. Come back and let me know 🙂
Will do !
I am confident Berry if the campaign goes well will be nominated alongside either actors they love Chastain,McDormand ,Cruz and Colman or newbies like Stewart or Zegler.
I don’t believe that Blanchet will be lead in Nightmare Alley
Get real. The Help was not a well liked movie and it certainly hasn’t aged well.
I liked it.
It was well liked in the general sense : huge Box Office (audience liked it) + SAG Ensemble win (industry liked it) + Best Picture nomination and an acting win (Academy liked it).
Was it a great film ? Not really. VERY well-acted though.
Should it have been directed by a white man when they had Ava DuVernay on the payroll already as a publicist ? No. Of course not.
But was it “well-liked” ? It was. Clearly.
Couldn’t have said it better, myself. Everyone I know in the real world (not the Twitter bubble) really likes The Help.
Why shouldn’t The Help have been directed by a white man? Should The Color Purple have been directed by Steven Spielberg? Should Ava DuVernay be allowed to direct any film with white people? I don’t understand.
A film about the perspective of black women, told through the eyes of a white man is tricky. It doesn’t mean he couldn’t have done a good job, it just simply won’t be as authentic as it could be. And when Ava DuVernay is given a chance to direct a random film with white male leads, I will be more than happy to resume this conversation but right now my issue with the industry is that all this is a one way street : white men can direct whatever they want including films about race (Tate Taylor, Steven Spielberg, Peter Farrelly, Paul Haggis) which would be fine if directors of colour could also direct whatever they want but they are almost never given the chance for example to direct a prestige film with a white cast. So long story short I don’t think that’s fair : if white directors direct all the white stories and most of the stories of people of colour, then what is left for the directors of colour who are already essentially only allowed to direct latter ? There are very VERY few exceptions, Ang Lee’s Sense and Sensibility comes to mind.
I have no problem with Tate Taylor directing The Help. Not a great film but a fine one which is fairly entertaining. I have no problem with Steven Spielberg directing The Color Purple – even though I am not as wowed by it as many others, I think it’s ok. By the same token, I have no issues with Steve McQueen directing Hunger and Shame, F Gary Gray directing The Italian Job, Antoine Fuqua directing King Arthur, Ang Lee directing Sense and Sensibility and The Ice Storm, Alfonso Cuaron, Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu and Guillermo del Toro directing non-Hispanic films, and Chloe Zhao directing non-Asian films.
The true test of a film is not whether it is directed by a white, black, Asian, Hispanic, Native American person; but whether the director does the work any justice, regardless of his color and race. When film critique starts to devolve into a political discussion premised on skin color and race, and not about the authenticity and quality of the film itself, it stops becoming relevant.
On that note, can someone tell Ingmar Bergman and John Cassavettes it’s so unfair that they should direct Persona and A Woman Under the Influence when women have so few opportunities to direct? How dare Ang Lee direct Brokeback Mountain when gay directors get cast aside again and again?
Black directors can make bad films about the black experience. White directors can make bad films about the white experience. Conversely, black directors can make good films about the white experience, and on and on … you get the drift. Blame Tate Taylor all you want if you hate The Help, just like Ava DuVernay did a terrible job with A Wrinkle in Time, but don’t hate The Help just because a white man directed it. It’s kind of cheap if that’s the argument you want to go with passing off as film commentary.
Did I ever say I hated The Help or Tate Taylor’s directing ? No, because I didn’t. I think he did a good job. Not great. But good.
The rest of your comment would warrant a much larger conversation about inclusivity in the film industry. I agree with most of your points especially this part : “When film critique starts to devolve into a political discussion premised on skin color and race, and not about the authenticity and quality of the film itself, it stops becoming relevant.”
But I think you misunderstood my point completely. I wasn’t saying The Help was a worse film because of its white male director, I meant it was less authentic which it was. I just don’t think we should be in denial about underrepresentation and lack of authenticity when it comes to choices of directors in this industry. That doesn’t mean anyone couldn’t direct a great film in any topic. They could. It’s just problematic that one group gets opportunities to direct all topics and the other groups only get niche opportunities that are often still taken by the the other group.
Outside of film groups and critics, general audiences LOVED The Help….I know some women who consider it their favorite movie. I rewatched it during lock down and it was a good enjoyable viewing.
Is it an all together great film? Nah. But the acting is great and the story is engaging. My issue with the film and book was I wanted a better ending to the story.
By saying it hasn’t aged well, are you just basing that off of how it handled the race issues? What about it hasn’t aged well?
I know it is going to sound like spam, but the more I think about this particular race… I only see Nicole Kidman beating Penelope Cruz for the win, if Being the Ricardos become a nomination maelstrom and delivers into Best Picture winning material.
Bear with me on this…
Stewart is mimmicking Lady Diana Spencer in a glamourized biopic
Hudson is mimmicking Aretha Franklin in a glamourized biopic
Chastain is mimmicking Tammy Faye in a glamourized biopic
Kidman is mimmickin Lucille Ball in a glamourized biopic
Colman recently won and the film doesn’t look as Best Picture calibre
McDormand is aiming to a 4th win and it would be a back-to-back with last year’s and she also won the second just too recently.. all in lead.
Those are the main contenders… Cruz is completely deglamourized and realistic (even if her character is a wealthy and stylish photographer) and in a movie that never stops feeling real. Her character arch is one for the ages and is an original character, which sets her apart of the main competitors. Unless critics steamroll for one of the biopic actresses and all agree on one, Cruz is the one offering something different and completely raw acting. She won in Supporting, in 2008, and she hasn’t been nomnated since 2009… so the “dueness” after a solid career, for a 2nd win might be out of question, if she’s nominated at least… and she’s likely to sweep critics awards given that she also got raves for Official Competition and may score many Best Actress notices citing both films instead of just Parallel Mothers.
Raw, objective logic. But also, of course, I have the advantage of actually having seen the film and the performance.
“I only see Nicole Kidman beating Penelope Cruz for the win…”
This is really too much – even from you…
I am thinking of the intense Sorkin screenplay that is promised, and if she knocks out of the park her Lucille Ball impression, it would be showy as hell, and her only Oscar was almost 20 years ago. Kidman is one of the performers that we all know will win again, eventually and is warranted an extra Honorary Oscar in the years to come.
I don’t think that they feel Hudson, McDormand or Colman should win again right now, and I don’t think that they feel they “owe” Stewart anything just yet, as her raved performances in Clouds of Sils Maria and Personal Shopper were away from Hollywood… but Kidman, if raved and the film becomes a BP contender? Yes, that could happen.
Also, she’s having a strong year on TV, with two strong performances…
You’re acting like you discovered that Being the Ricardos exist like… three days ago.
Now Kidman is suddenly a frontrunner? Give me a break, please….She’ll be extremely lucky if she is nominated in strong year like this.
Over the night, you dumped Stewart as your favorite and you’re in Kidman bandwagon now. For the movie that has no trailer, no reviews, no any reliable reactions so far… only reliance on Sorkin’s script? Ok, buddy… season is long.
no, I discovered what Being the Ricardos was about, and the scope it shows, only 3 days ago. That changed drastically my view on its chances. I assumed it was going to be the usual biopic (think of What’s love got to do with it? or Bohemian Rhapsody), but when I discovered it was going to be more in the line of Frost/Nixon or Steve Jobs… things changed, as it might be a high-pressure film, which would allow Kidman, Bardem and the supporting cast, to show off.
I am really afraid that Stewart’s performance is going to be a “Marie Claire” kind of like… yes, she would become Lady Di on screen, but hardly allowing her to show the kind of raw emotions that I’ve seen in Cruz’s Parallel Mothers. The word I am looking for is intense… while Hudson, Kidman, Stewart and Chastain are heavily aided by technicals (make up, hairstyle, costumes, etc.) to portray the characters, we aren’t in that game with Cruz (or Colman, for the matter, and others), this is going to be purely talent-driven.
When you see the film, you’ll fully understand. Remember, I have the advantage of having seen it. And trust me, I have no special interest in Cruz winning a 2nd. But it’s true that this is a career-best and in my opinion, while not the most entertaining or engaging Almodovar that I’ve seen, I think that, artistically and in ambition, this is his most necessary and best film. And I can’t normally stand the man, but his work is a different matter.
Off topic, just seen Venom: There will be Carnage and got extremely and pleasantly surprised by how fun it is. Short, I never felt that a frame was wasted or a line of dialogue, it felt fresh, Hardy and Harrelson have a lot of fun (Harris as well, but wasn’t that engaged by her performance, and I normally love her)… scratch that, everyone in the cast seemed to have a lot of fun… and the post main credits scene was… excellent and hints so much stuff. Andy Serkis reveals himself as a really good artisan, and it seems that Tom Hardy is one of the main responsibles for the fun and fast screenplay, hats off. Better than Black Widow and not that far behind from Free Guy
Fine. So Bardem is favorite for Best Actor now too? Or you will say that in a few days ?
You and Phantom convinced me. I’m sure Being the Ricardos will be the movie of the year (10 nominations minimum with Kidman, Bardem and Sorkin as favorites in their categories). Like you said above – the scope of this project couldn’t be underestimated. My views drasticaly changed overnight. I simply trust yours and Phantom ‘s judgment.
no, Bardem is no favorite for BA. Desi is no Lucille. But I could picture him nominated along Kidman, thanks that the film should be probably presented as an acting duel between both.
So what you’re saying is that “raw, objective logic” is that Cruz has an incredibly strong chance of winning (basically in your argument she’s the only possible winner if Kidman’s performance isn’t going to contend for the win) because you really like her performance?
I don’t think people treat as being overdue for a second Oscar (partially because there isn’t one part people in general think she absolutely should have won for and didn’t) and she’s not going to get critics’ awards for Official Competition unless that movie opens in the US during this year, which considering both its Spanish and Argentinian release being in 2022 is quite unlikely.
no, I mean that Cruz has several things that are strongly going for it. Some of them are full spoilers of the film, and I don’t include them for obvious reasons (the film will open in December in the USA), BUT I cited the other ones.
On Official Competition, I always stated an IF – but the film has been liked in Venice and Cruz (and the two male stars and one supporting player, by the way) have been raved in her performances. While OC may open in 2022 (if I was the distributor, I wouldn’t, so it could capitalize on Cruz’s Oscar run for Parallel Mothers), I think most critics would have seen it or at least know about Cruz’s raves in Venice, to consider…
… but still, I am assuming Stewart’s performance in Spencer would be similar to Portman’s in Jackie… and I can’t see anyone voting for a performance like that, over Cruz’s in Parallel Mothers. We’re talking about a career best, of one of the best collaborations between director / performer in the last 20 years (Volver, Broken Embraces, Pain & Glory and Parallel Mothers are a poker)
But it’s not like Official Competition was a big deal at Venice, it was well-reviewed but it didn’t really gather the kind of hype that implies that it’s a must-see. Thus especially if critics have only heard about the good reviews, and even if they’ve seen the movie and aren’t making noise about it, a movie like this won’t probably be a large part of the Oscar narrative for Cruz. And I’d note that “We’re talking about a career best, of one of the best collaborations between director / performer in the last 20 years (Volver, Broken Embraces, Pain & Glory and Parallel Mothers are a poker)” is all just personal opinion. Countless other actors and actresses have given masterful performances and not been nominated or lost their nominations to people playing biopic parts often not even doing much that’s particularly interesting. Thus your argument that a performance that you mainly seem to describe as “realistic” and “raw” will easily tower over the race seems odd and based on just your taste, since those kinds of performances have dominated very rarely. This is not an issue but it’s not objective. I could similarly for example say that Tilda Swinton will sweep for Memoria because she has pretty much co-ownership of a masterpiece in a way that pretty much no actor gets to do (several Rivette movies come to mind but other than that it pretty much never happens) but I would never call that an objective assessment but rather me arguing for something that I like because the data to back my argument up is not particularly strong
it doesn’t matter that it wasn’t a big deal and never in conversation to win the Golden Lion (which comedy wins a festival?)… the deal is that Cruz was extremely raved on a polar opposite role to Parallel Mothers, and till the last minute, the doubt was if she was going to be cited for both films or only for Almodovar’s. Which basically did set the buzz for critics awards, and probably OC’s distributors are considering if they should take profit of the PM’s wave to ride their film into the spotlight – tagentially – during Awards season (which would be a clever way of marketing the film, knowing that Cruz has a great shot to start collecting critic circle awards, and maybe SAG, Globe, BAFTA and Oscar nominations)
We all know how much the Academy hates it when actors mimic famous people in glamourized biopics.
yes, but there are just too many of them in the same year and for one win… and none of them seems to be aiming to be the critical darling, maybe Stewart at most.
Your opinion isn’t “raw, objective logic.” To cite just one example, your use of the word “mimic” is a loaded word.
because that’s what Hollywood Stars Oscarbait Biopic performances do: MIMIC the original, because they focus on well-known real-life characters… should we remember Marion Cotillard – admittedly not Hollywood and not Oscar but Cesarbait – , Gary Oldman or Rami Malek?
The one that maybe departed the most, Margo Robbie in Once upon a Time in Hollywood, got the nom but not the win.
I mean, recheck Oscar history and tell me that you don’t expect the same from Hudson/Aretha, Chastain/Faye, Stewart/Spencer and Kidman/Ball… the season is bloated with this kind of Oscarbait roles…
Still, none of that is true for Stewart and Spencer. It is not a glamourous film, she is not “mimicking” anyone in the classic biopic way. The film is even further away from a traditional biopic than Jackie was.
not glamourous? Have you seen the trailer?
I’ve seen the film.
and are you aware that everything Di, in real life, was glamour?
I think we should continue this discussion when you get the chance to see it too.
I hope so… because Jackie was somewhat disappointing. Still, a great film.
I think Jennifer H is a shoe – in because Oscars doesn’t want another “Where’s the black actresses” moment. Besides, she was believable in the role.
I haven’t seen the other actresses and frankly, none of the movies interest me.
Stop trying to make Kristen Stewart happen, it’s not gonna happen. Jesus Christ!
No, but seriously, I don’t think so, I really think Chastain is taking the lead, she also has Scenes from a Marriage this year, in which she was amazing.
But the Chastain movie bombed. That makes a BIG difference.
Define “bombed” in a COVID era. There are probably other reasons that aren’t particularly promising for Chastain in terms of winning but just because it’s the first one to struggle to make money won’t necessarily mean that it’s the last one this season.
But 2.6 milion is really small box-office for Oscar hopeful, don’t you agree? Other competitors have more trailer viewers on YouTube.
With minimal box-office and mediocre reviews for a movie, Chastain will have an uphill battle to stay in the race for the next six months.
It is a small amount of money for an Oscar movie but I think we need to have more movies come out before we can say how small it is. The scale of box office in a COVID Oscar race is still a mystery to us and immediately defining a film that is almost the first Oscar hopeful of the season to hit theatres as a hit or a failure seems premature to me.
Bombed as in ranked 74th in box office for the year. Bombed as in only one theater after 5 weeks in a mid size city. I have no desire to see a movie about creepy garish, evangelical grifters. I was very tired of them when before they were caught. Obviously other movie goers agree with me. I watched The Rescue last night which is thrilling and uplifting. Tonight The Velvet Underground. So I may see No Time to Die or The Last Duel next. Bergman Island, Mass, Dune, Last In Soho, The French Dispatch, Eternals and Belfast coming up.
I know that it’s not comparable since it’s not going to stay number 69 for the year (according to The Numbers) at the US box office (I’d like to use worldwide but it’s been proven that the only effect box office might have on the Oscar race is the American box office as if the rest of us don’t exist) but for example in 2019, Harriet, which I think was considered to be a solid moneymaker, was 64th, and Uncut Gems for example was 73rd, and The Lighthouse was 128th (probably more like where Tammy Faye will wind up). The ranking itself is not purely descriptive, everything depends on perception, and I think in this year any and every movie should be forgiven negative perceptions in terms of box office.
Also, to be clear, I would say that you didn’t miss much by not seeing Tammy Faye, I’m not defending the movie, it’s just that I feel uncomfortable about throwing around claims about movies flopping right now, especially as I wouldn’t be surprised if more of these movies would do the same.
And since you mentioned it, I’ll just say that Bergman Island is absolutely incredible.
no one cares about fuggin Juilliard ham Jessica Chastain
Not compared to Liv Ullmann in the original!
So many unseen performances and early factors.
Seems like Stewart and Chastain are still strong for the nom/win.
Beyond that, Gaga looks flashy. Comer is hitting now. Penelope Cruz is getting very good ink.
Those 5 look like it to me, as of now.
But I wouldn’t sleep on Berry, Zegler or Colman (raves coming in, but is the film too small/divisive). Jennifer Hudson could be a Top 5-er all along and we’re just sleeping on the potential for the nom. A lottttt to happen, yet.
But yeah, as of 10/14/2021 for me … Stewart, Chastain, Comer, Gaga, Cruz.
Chastain is not happening with a September dump film in a crowded category. Blanchett will also possibly steal all her Searchlight buzz.
In races like these, the “lone nominees” should be the first ones to go, unless they are Renee Zellweger, Meryl Streep or Julianne Moore. Chastain is not on the same level as these ladies. Comer and JHud will also have a hard time.
Spencer has the possibility of getting Picture, Director and Screenplay noms, which those movies don’t have.
I understand why Streep and Moore were bigger deals than Chastain but why exactly is Chastain not at the level of Zellweger? The movies got pretty much similar reactions and Chastain is probably in a higher position in the industry than Zellweger was. Yes, Zellweger had a strong narrative but that narrative grew and thus treating Zellweger as a certainty means that you’re comparing Chastain now to Zellweger after they’d won all the precursors
I was actually talking about their careers and respect level in industry. Zellweger was an Oscar winner. Chastain hasn’t been nominated in a decade.
Judy had a better critical reception than Tammy Faye actually. And it was Judy Garland.
Not to mention that the 2019 actress category was weaker than this year’s, which is too stacked, obviously due to all the delays, for someone in a September movie (which had mixed to negative reception) to make in.
I think the strength of best actress this year can still strongly fluctuate based on what becomes a big best picture contender. If CODA is big, if Spencer is big (I think it’s still very questionable if that movie will do well in general with the Academy), if Parallel Mothers is big, if Cyrano is big, if The Lost Daughter doesn’t get buried under Netflix’s other contender and if Nightmare Alley, House of Gucci, West Side Story and Being the Ricardos hit, it’s absolutely an incredibly solid list of Oscar contenders. But CODA could easily fade (and is a newbie player’s second-biggest contender), Spencer could just be a Stewart play, Parallel Mothers could just not happen or the conversation might just solidify around Almodóvar, Cyrano could really drop out or Bennett might simply not become the person to talk about there, The Lost Daughter (and Passing) might be Netflix’s fourth or fifth play which has in the past proven to falter, Nightmare Alley could have everyone in supporting, House of Gucci and Being the Ricardos feel a little like This Had Oscar Buzz movies waiting to happen and lead nominations for Spielberg movies are somewhat rare. So I could see the collection of strong contenders just shrink (of course not hoping for that) and thus I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Chastain and/or Hudson to at least be nominated.
yes, Zellweger was a force with awards for years and then completely dropped off the face of the Earth not just awards-wise but she didn’t really work. And then had a comeback playing an icon.
Chastain is one of many actresses who were nominated once and then had a long string of failed baits and paycheck movies (Dark Phoenix, The Huntsman). Not exactly getting people to wonder if she was alive. Nothing special in her trajectory.
Zellweger played Judy Garland. Chastain is playing Tammy Faye. Nobody outside of America knows who the fuck that is. So scrap international support. Also, Tammy Faye in America is hardly an icon like Judy Garland.
Moreover, Judy got much better reviews and boxoffice. Tammy is a critical dud and boxoffice is only 2.3M. Won’t go up much. It has no chance of being seen abroad.
Not to mention, the prosthetics makeup-driven performance is exactly what gives AMPAS a bad name when it comes to wins. A caricature. if they could snub Davis in fatsuit and award McDormand, they can snub Chastain and nominate someone else.
Like I said, narratives can build. Of course Tammy Faye isn’t the same as Judy Garland (I hadn’t heard of Tammy Faye before this movie) but there are other narratives. And Judy has a 66 Metacritic compared to a 55 Metacritic, which is a difference but both are still in the middling range, and box office isn’t really comparable.
Perhaps it’s just that while I didn’t think that highly of either film, I thought The Eyes of Tammy Faye did the same thing slightly better, and thought that Chastain was at least playing some kind of character (once again, I hadn’t heard of Tammy Faye so perhaps I just didn’t feel the caricature stuff as strongly) in the movie whereas my main take on Zellweger’s Garland performance was that there is nothing reminiscent of what I think of Garland in that performance, and almost nothing reminiscent of a person either. So I’m quite confused why if Zellweger could sweep, a somewhat better variation has absolutely no chance.
Narratives don’t mean anything. If your movie sucks and someone else is better/more resonant, your narrative won’t save you. Glenn Close and Chadwick Boseman had narratives and lost to better performances in better movies. Narratives only exist among Oscar watchers who use them to justify their wishful thinking. But in reality, AMPAS doesn’t give a shit and most likely doesn’t think in those terms.
Better is relative, thus what people perceive as “better” is a narrative in and of itself
that’s industry narartive. Outsider’s narrative is always something unrelated to it, most notably “overdue” myth. Who outsiders think is overdue and who industry thinks may be different things. And if “overdue” is in a dud facing a terrific competitor in a strong movie, you know what happens.
“Chastain is not on the same level as these ladies.”
You are out of your mind. Chastain is the most immersive, versatile and skilled actress of her generation. You need to pay attention to the level of conviction and investment in these oppositional performances, which bear no trace to each other and each of which is utterly transformational.
The Help
Zero Dark Thirty
Molly’s Game
Miss Julie
Take Shelter
The Zookeeper’s Wife
Mama
A Most Violent Year
The Tree of Life
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
And there are many more. Take any two of the films above and put them next to each other and you will not recognize any performance correlations; she is a Streep-level chameleon and has the rare knack of being both technically immaculate and emotionally direct; there is nothing coldly precise about her performances. Genius-level performer.
She should at least be Oscar-nominated for Crimson Peak.
Several mediocre movies. Saw 5 on the list. I am skipping the evangelical grifter movie.
Thanks for praising her. The knives are really out for Chastain on this site’s comments. It kinda sucks.
I have Colman missing for being an unlikeable character in a meandering film with several flashbacks that she is not in.
That is pretty accurate.
And, I have seen the film.
Yeah, I also watched it yesterday. Doesn’t feel like an Oscar vehicle.
I’m puzzled by the references to Kidman being a contender for playing Lucille Ball this year. Has anyone seen a firm release date for Being the Ricardos? IMDB lists no date at all. I’m anxious to see it- but it’s listed as being only in post-production. Anyone have more insight on this?
Sorkin confirmed in an interview last week that Amazon will release it in December, he and Kidman already started some light campaigning. He did a TCM special where he talked about Lucille Ball movies and also a bit about Being the Ricardos, and he and Kidman attended the opening of the Academy Museum together, I think also last week maybe the week before.
Long story short Being the Ricardos is definitely coming and it will probably have its world premiere at the Academy Museum.
And considering that Amazon has just released the trailer for The Tender Bar that will be released in January, my guess is that the Ricardos trailer can’t be far off, either, maybe even this week.
Wow- that’s great. Did not know that. Thanks for the update.
Great to actually hear this news on Being the Ricardos. I really hope for it to be good just so to shut the Kidman naysayers. Really excited by Sorkin’s premise that I hope would dig deeper on the themes of relationshipsand marriage through a production week of I Love Lucy. Contrary to the [over]reaction of most people, it piqued my interest when Kidman was cast as Lucille Ball!
I love both Kidman and Sorkin (well, Sorkin as a screenwriter at least) so I was already rooting for this one but then the disgusting backlash happened against her casting and that’s when I started to REALLY hope it will be a damn masterpiece just to trigger the online assholes.
“And certainly the Spirit Awards and perhaps Los Angeles and New York will all be in an ongoing conversation with Twitter about who the winners should be. A Twitter swarm is an overwhelming thing that, in its own way, can have enormous influence. Just look at how influential the single hashtag #OscarsSoWhite has been.”
..and look at the profound whitewash that ensued that ripped apart the sould of awards season to what it once was… for twitter it all or nothing…and really given the rightful consistent strong anti right extremists positioning thankfully Hollywood take a stand against …
Then that leaves the biggest threat to Oscars public respect amongst us filmgoers and appeal to the extreme left moralistic crusaders…who,much like the crusade era soldiers stop at nothing to slaughter, grind up and strike at heart those that oppose them.
There is afar leftist empirical dictatorship looming among awards season let not sugar coat it.
#me too and # Oscar so white I never against a form of awakening …but NONE of US on evidence reflected from Oscars falling flailing ratings over a cliff the growing traditional commentators more publicly lashing elements on awards season and peers that support them.. the growing resentment for political correctness and putrid moralistic lecturing what passes the moral/ immoral threshold.
If a film is immoral then has to to fulfill domineering far left that don’t take my wordd for it look at downhill trend that pushing awards season credulity over the cliff ledge …it VERY close going over….g-d I hope I wrong but fuk knows at this point right?
Immoral criteria to – pass as frontrunner favourite is : ” to what extent does a film show us consequences of fallout from really nasty things by-product our society “?” If it does not shock enough then it not good enough it has to be really bleak if it bout negative dark themes or it half baked ‘ this is immoral qualification for a film to be a contender favourite in eyes of twitterati.
The moral equivalent alternative side of radical leftist coin is ” we need do films that fulfill gentle respectful treatment others tell pple how to behave in society that WE ONLY we think is socially acceptable these films cannot be open to interpretation the viewer must accept teachings from the film.”
SO SINCE when did the extent of IMMORAL/MORAL threshold define the barometer of which films are heavily favoured and which films are not ?
I sorry but esch year from now on I gonna single out film I feel that not just piss me off but evoke behind scenes heels of discontent from not do much conservative commentators historian of awards season bit moreso the TRADITIONALIST.
Now, admittedly , the sensible moderate idea pragmatically of a true ‘ traditionalist ‘ should evolve with the times but do do WITHOUT abandoning core guiding principles make very industry they followed /engaged / been involved with for like decades prior once made them relevant adaptable while emvracing the industry in this case motion pictures core demographic- US.
AT NO STAGE WHATSOEVER DOES AMPAS STAND FOR NOR WAS FOUNDED AS AMERICAN MORAL PICTURE ARTS AND SCIENCES … BUT AMERICAN MOTION PICTURE ARTS AND SCIENCES .
but you be forgiven the moralistic/ immoralistic juxtaposition of today’s overarching controlling regime think above as the former…
The idea of ” me too” and ” oscar so white” sure more than it used to be films with these themes should be favoured but it the FREQUENCY multipls years in a row these themed films are dominating and exposing the biggest fraud in modern Oscar history that Oscar and awards season need start urgently having honest internal conversations with : ” is this the path that will lead to thriving sustainable fair and just AMPAS? How much longer can we ignore the traditional soul and essence of awards season ?
The teo aforementioned movements were ONLY bout fairer consideration and equality between those typw films film-makers long overdue rather than as it been insane ludicrous swing to the online moral bullies and crusaders .. once again last 15 years overall gradually suffocated the soul we all long for desperately need academy and awards season start to restore some Order and balance. Between re-establishing at heart of Oscar campaigns and contenders more talk bout films on merit and less bout moral / immoral teachings .
If you want be educated documentaries real politics NOT academy awards season for films… once regarded as the Dream factory are all bot MORAL / immoral societal experimentation factories… see a bloody educational documentary then elevate if u activist cause through documentaries but font have them corrupt, compromise jeopardise very soul of what awards season should be about :
Best told stories, films either most memorable moments film where film-makers challenges us viewer through blowing us away by there vision efgort to bring it to life technically artistically and ONLY as a by-product all this some moral immoral moments. Msgs must be incidental not purposefully forming the defining driving force of all elements together .
The HUGE difference between premature favourite ‘ Power of the dog ” and ” the last duel ” u c in minute why I compare the two, is cos one is generated solely show us how bad and wrong some acts moments are magnify that by imposing sympathy and seeing resentment not cos of characters but cos of msgs perpetuated this is fundamental problem I and I suspect as qards season draws on tesfitionalist voices will have either power of the dog I strongly believe they should.
In ” Last Duel” it historic fact… yes it said blend ” Gladiator ” with ” me too” but fscf is this is Ridley Scott film… reason I caution anyone to dismiss his film as mere pie in sky hops to not be favourite is cos unlike any period set epic I know of , there never been one so expertly potentially blends ” me too” morals without this theme detracting from broader picture story, incredible battle scenes and all round drama and performances Scott unlike too many film-makers shoes countless occassoobs focus on micro but macro concepts ideas in his films… yes at heart of story is woman quest not be silenced for rape the kingdom rivals committed…and blood feud literally brings France on precipice all out war but it be foolish to simplify Scott as film-makers his own trademark deep philosophical underpinnings in film this calibre as he ‘ champion of ‘ me too’ that simply not Scott DNA… he came across this story but nooo he didn’t settle for central theme to drive everything and moment happens in this film…on evidence of trailers this is medieval war film of spectacle balanced out with intimate powerful central character their own journey for justice.
IF the tewitterati far left militia corrupted academy cannot see virtue in a film of most powerful provocative central theme comes from idea of ‘ me too’ set in the backdrop of traditional old style epic that oscsr used to love then any rejection of ‘ last duel’ final reveal monstrous nature of left wing twitterati and they they outed for undermining undermining again for last time ampas core principles when pple see how far moralistic crusaders go to reject common sense
How this fits into actress topic? It all connected for too long whichever actress or actors win does not reflect type film ei b best picture it most glaring disconnect in last decade overall where actress or acting win does not align with best picture outvone .
For record I concede Jodie comer MUST get Oscar nomination bring heartbeat of core story in last duel that film have big impact for Oscar.. but depends how big potentially last duel becomes as event film. Don’t be surprised both Scott films land potentially best actress nominations too .
Alphabetically; Blanchett, Colman, Cruz, Kidman and Stewart
For some reason this is also my dream nominees for now. But Blanchett might be in supporting since her character in the novel is.
Stewart is amazingly good in Spencer, but I am not fully convinced it is an entirely Oscar-friendly performance.
I have said for weeks, and am probably a loner, but I don’t have her in my predictions at this moment in time. I will wait to see if she is embraced by the other groups before I put her on my Oscar predictions—she is my big snub of the season.
Erik Anderson has probably the best (and most realistic) Top 5. I’d only give better chances to Gaga over Colman.
Cruz might be SO winning. When you see the film, you’ll understand why. Like, really. Her performance is like a dagger stabbing your heart, repeatedly, without ever losing your simpathy.
God..it’s a Pain and Glory all over again.
JK 🙂
the movie ain’t anything as Pain & Glory. At all. That one was autobiographical, and PM, is a complete detour of Almodovar beats in which he reflects himself in the story and characters – Julieta maybe being the most obvious precedent of a less selfish, than not selfless Almodovar – and he devotes himself absolutely to the message and the themes… he goes to the extremes of devoiding the film, in the key final moments – but in the final shot – of the stylish framing and bets everything in a naturalism that puts the supposed “humble directing” of Spielberg’s Schindler’s List and Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma, to shame. He simply mirrors the naturalistic aesthetics of the great documentary “The Silence of Others”, produced by him, by the way. Almodovar completely devotes the film into constructing a subliminal empathy with the characters – specially Cruz’s, whose performance is crucial to be human and relatable, even when making the most depicable choices – so we can fully feel the impact of the last third, relating directly to facts that could be shocking, outside Spain, but are 100% true.
I can’t really explain without spoilling the whole experience, but I find kind of heartbreaking, to read some spanish reviews that simply judge the movie on its most superficial level, instead of exploring the embarrassment of riches of ideas, textures, allegories…
Parallel Mothers is a difficult film on many aspects and kind of demands some knowledge of Spain’s history in the last 100 years (and I am amazed by the risk Almodovar takes on making parallels on Spanish society and history with the way the two mothers relate to each other, and how depending if the babies are involved or not, the meaning of the allegory changes drastically, but creating no contradiction).
This is, really, another level… I am unsure if AMPAS will understand or enjoy the whole experience, but even if they just stop at the surface level, the nominations for Original Screenplay and Actress (and likely wins) would be warranted. This is the first Almodovar film I am fully convinced that CAN make it into Best Picture… but it will need strong critical support to keep in the conversation (given Cruz’s frontrunner status along Stewart, for the critics circles awards, I am inclined to think it will be in the conversation till the final moments). SAG Ensemble is a longshot but possible, Cruz will probably make the cut there, and also for BAFTA, where the film, director and Original Screenplay could quite likely be nominated… and Almodovar already won a Best Director BAFTA, by the way, if my memory doesn’t betray me.
As I said before, I think PM might pick these nominations…
SAG – Lead Actress
GG – Lead Actress, International Film
BAFTA – Director, Original Screenplay, Lead Actress
Oscar – Lead Actress, Original Screenplay
but could be in the running also for
SAG – Ensemble
GG – Director, Screenplay
BAFTA – Picture, Score
Oscar – Picture, Director, Score
I really want Cruz to win this, seriously.
I picked Kristen Stewart, Jessica Chastain, Lady Gaga, Frances McDormand, and Penelope Cruz. But Macdormand could be nominated in Supporting. Then Hudson gets in.
I think only Stewart and Cruz are safe. Chastain may lose steam trough race and she has a weak movie, Macbeth hype may die down in the next months, Gaga is wait and see, Hudson is likely out.
MacBeth SCREAMS Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom to me. Not sure if the Academy is going to get into that movie.
I think it will have more prestige than Ma, that’s for sure. I’m just not confident entirely like most of people here that it’s sure Oscar contender.
The last wave of reviews for The Last Duel have been a bit stronger; it’s up to 70 on MC. I’m looking forward to it. Comer will at least be in the conversation when the race starts.
The Best Actress race seems wide open to me, with only one near-lock; at least 7 viable, already seen contenders; and at least 7 high-profile, yet-unseen players.
NEAR-LOCK
1. Kristen Stewart is still the early frontrunner that can be both a blessing and a curse, too early to tell which will it be this time. I am hoping for a blessing.
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2. Frances McDormand alluded to Lady Macbeth being a supporting role in an interview a few weeks ago, we’ll see how that goes, for now I think she is firmly in the lead race with a film that could be a solid Best Picture contender so once her category placement is confirmed, she will be probably in near-lock status, as well.
3. Jessica Chastain is reliably brilliant but her film is neither a critical nor commercial success so precedent is against her but her overdue status could balance that out a bit.
4. Jennifer Hudson plays an icon in a film that garnered respectable reviews and Box Office however in a season full of icons (Diana, Tammy Faye, Lady Macbeth, Lucille Ball, Lady Gucci, Maria), her film may have arrived – and potentially peaked – way too early. Plus the fact that she got an Oscar for her first ever film, and for a role that was somewhat inspired by Aretha thus is rather similar to her role this year, won’t do her any favours, either.
5. Penelope Cruz got a big boost with the Volpi Cup but historically performances in foreign languages have a hard time getting Oscar nominations especially in films the country in question didn’t even give Oscar consideration in the Best International Film category. Also there is no urgency for another nomination, the Academy had done right by her in the past : a lead nod, a win in supporting, another nod in supporting right after the year she won. Having said that her sole lead nod WAS for a foreign language performance in a motherhood-centric Almodovar film so that should be pointed out the very least.
6. Olivia Colman is in a small indie film in a season full of flashy star vehicles so we will see how she will fare against them. For what it’s worth the fact that the Academy had already done right by Hudson, Cruz and Colman, may hurt their chances this time around.
7. Jodie Comer definitely has breakout potential, her performance received unanimous raves so it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if she ended up in the final five. The fact that the film could surprise at the Box Office (theatre exclusivity, on the con side its target audience is still wary of moviegoing) and is getting much better reviews than its early word suggested (70 MC / 86 RT at the moment, to put it in perspective those are higher than Ridley Scott’s BP winning Gladiator), won’t hurt, either. Neither will the good will from being the female lead in a proper original summer hit (Free Guy). It almost feels like she just thought to herself “ugh no Killing Eve season this year, what should I do ? eh, I guess I will just become a movie star then”. So far it is working.
8. Tessa Thompson’s Passing received rave reviews in January when it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival and while things have been quiet around the film since then, the fourth-quarter Netflix release could give it – and its leading ladies – enough of a boost to land on the radar of award voters.
YET-UNSEEN CONTENDERS
9. Nicole Kidman doing Sorkin dialogue could be a match made in heaven but of course it depends on how the film and her performance will be received overall. I have a hunch she will be a contender.
10. Halle Berry should not be slept on, either, considering she probably has the most impressive Oscar campaign narrative of them all : exactly 20 years after her historic Oscar victory, she could be literally directing herself back into the Oscar conversation with her directing debut. It would be quite the moment considering Hollywood has failed her in these 20 years in epic fashion. Sure, she picked some bad scripts but the calls from the directing giants had clearly never come even after her Oscar win. Or at least I don’t think she would have said no to the likes of Spielberg, Scorsese, Fincher, Nolan etc., if those calls had ever been made. Hopefully Bruised will be a second chance. Not for her, for the industry to do right by her at last and offer her the prestige projects she would have deserved in the last 20 years already.
11. Lady Gaga definitely has a fanbase that will hype her up no matter what but I have to say I have my doubts about this film and performance. She proved that she was a good actress the last time around and the singing definitely elevated her performance but here’s the thing : no singing this time. Just acting. And while she was good, I simply don’t think she is great. Yet. Definitely not the kind of great who gets nominated for every film she makes, the main reason I don’t really see her go 2/2 unless raves + epic BO happens.
12. Rachel Zegler could make history with an iconic role, played by a Latina actress on screen for the first time, directed by Steven Spielberg. That’s a pretty solid combination, I would not count her out.
13. Jennifer Lawrence received a win in lead and 3 additional Oscar nominations before she turned 26 so voters clearly love her and she is automatically a contender especially with a high-profile, star-studded December release from an Oscar-winning filmmaker. I mean if Vice could land all those above the line nominations, the bar is clearly not that high for Don’t Look Up, either. We’ll see.
14. Sandra Bullock won’t have any kind of urgency going for her this time since she already won (The Blind Side) and received a follow-up nomination (Gravity), as well, while also having the dubious honour of being in one of the most controversial BP winners (Crash) and two of the most controversial BP nominees (The Blind Side, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close). Long story short, the Academy doesn’t really owe her anything at this point and with her film having no BP buzz unlike the last two films she was nominated for, I don’t think she will make a dent in the race this time. I am looking forward to the film and performance nonetheless, looks like it could be a very solid indie gem.
15. Cate Blanchett will be probably placed in lead for Nightmare Alley for strategic reasons (she has two high-profile co-stars already competing in supporting) even though based on the source material, the role is definitely supporting. I don’t think she will be able to compete with a smaller role against all these high-profile star vehicles this season however she could also have a shot in supporting with her other film this year, Don’t Look Up … trouble there is once again internal competition (Meryl Streep).
If Nominations Morning were tomorrow : Stewart + McDormand + Chastain + Hudson + Cruz
My hunch : Stewart + McDormand + Kidman + Comer + Berry (+ Chastain if McDormand moves)
I thought McDormand’s “supporting” comment was obvious sarcasm, but so many people are taking it seriously that I feel like I’m getting crazy.
I was getting some sarcasm vibe from the interview, as well, but at the same time arguing that the lead of Macbeth is, well, Macbeth and his wife getting the rather frustrating but typical “wife of the lead” supporting treatment, would not surprise me one bit. If placed in lead, McDormand would be gunning for her third Best Actress Oscar in 5 years. Does she have a chance at pulling that unprecedented feat off ? Sure. Would she have a considerably better shot in supporting after 2 lead wins in the last 5 years ? Who knows. Probably ? Not sure.
I don’t really think she can win either way, although Supporting Actress looks alarmingly empty at the moment. But she will probably be happier with (yet another) Best Actress nomination than brawling for the win in Supporting.
I think the supporting actress category has been filling up rather quickly this season. Caitriona Balfe and Kirsten Dunst are both in serious BP contenders so I think they are most likely in. Then there are the already seen early standouts Ann Dowd, Aunjanue Ellis, Ruth Negga, Judi Dench and that’s six already even before high-profile unseen films like West Side Story (Ariana DeBose), Being the Ricardos (Nina Arianda), Don’t Look Up (Meryl Streep), Nightmare Alley (Rooney Mara, Toni Collette), Swan Song (Glenn Close), House of Gucci (Salma Hayek).
And there is always a chance precursors will give a big boost to an acclaimed but under the radar contender like Marlee Matlin, Haley Bennett, Olga Merediz, Gaby Hoffmann, Jayne Houdyshell, Martha Plimpton.
Not to mention how many films seem to have 2 viable contenders in this category this season, quite interesting to me : Belfast, Mass, King Richard, West Side Story, Don’t Look Up, Nightmare Alley.
Long story short, I think this category will be very competitive.
Until you highlighted all those Supporting contenders, I just assumed McDormand (based on the interview, run time, etc) would go Supporting to get away from a packed Lead contending field. But now, maybe she SHOULD try in Lead. As of now though, I still have her in my Supporting line-ups for selfish reasons, Lol.
It seems to me that most of those people listed are either in films that may not even reach voters, or are generally unknown which is always an uphill battle to climb. Balfe and Dunst neither necessarily felt like Oscar winners to me from their roles in their films.
Dunst looks safe for nomination, she has strong movie behind her. Winning will be more dificult but maybe this is her chance to get “career” Oscar. Very surprised that she was never nominated before.
Shocking considering she is still only in her 30s yet already delivered nomination-worthy performances in 4 decades.
1994 – Interview with a Vampire
2006 – Marie Antoinette
2011 – Melancholia
2021 – The Power of the Dog
She was so good in The Beguiled too
She is excellent in so many different roles over the years. So overdue for an Oscar nomination (win, even!).
1. Stewart
2. Cruz (not #1 because of the language / subtitles barier). Last Cruz nomination was 11 years ago, she’s due for a second Oscar, and overdue for one as lead.
3. the rest.
Something tells me either Stewart or Cruz will win this in the end.
Nobody should ever be considered “due” for a second Oscar.
yes, if enough time has passed. Think of Anna Paquin, winning in 93, and the buzz that Lonnergan’s fight for “Margaret” deprived her of a second win in Lead. If some film in the future puts her back in the race with chances, it would have been 30 years since she won, and while she didn’t have a career that has been showy in cinema, she’s been consistently high in her acting, including a Golden Globe win and Emmy nominations. A similar case with Marisa Tomei, she’s probably due to win again…
the dueness for a 2nd Oscar is even bigger when someone won in Supporting but became or is known as mostly a lead (think of Washington winning his 2nd for Training Day).
And don’t get me wrong, I am all for spreading the wealth… but Cruz – and her husband, Bardem – are two actors that may end their careers with more than one Oscar… the more time that passes since their wins (2008 and 2007, respectively), the sensation that they may win again, grows stronger, as they keep getting strong roles now and then… in Bardem’s case, for example, he’s got 3 noms-1 win, but was snubbed at the very least from a nom, for The Sea Inside and Skyfall (I could argue more films but they were not in the Oscar game), so he could be 5-1 or 5-2 already.
If you think Cruz gave the best performance and want her to win because of that, great. Say so.
But all this about her being “due” is nonsense. If we followed this logic, we’d never actually assess the quality of the performances. Every year, there’s somebody who is great but hasn’t won before , or someone about whom we could say “yeah, they’ve won before, but that was like 15 years ago so we’re obligated to have them win again!” It’s absurd. Just pick the performance you think is the best and lobby for it based on its artistic merits.
she’s due because, Hollywood work aside, in which she often has been – due to language and accent barrier – labelled to be supporting or the romantic interest of the anglosaxon lead, she’s known to be an international LEADING lady who has won awards for performing in Spanish, English AND Italian… always as lead or colead.
Good for her, but none of that entitles her to a second Oscar.
if Marilyn Monroe or Marlene Dietrich never got an Oscar (only Dietrich got nominated, once!), see how difficult it is to have a 2nd. It is so random, actually. Swank has two, for probably her only two awards-calibre performances that have been in the running… Cameron Díaz for example has delivered way more (Vanilla Sky, Being John Malkovich, Very Bad Things, There’s something about Mary – NYFCC winner!…) and never got one… Cruz has 3 nominations but certainly has snubbed – specially for her work in Spanish and Italian. She’s won an Oscar performing in English, a Goya performing in Spanish and a David performing in Italian. Just think about it for a second.
No way Comer will have advantage over Blanchett (if she goes lead) or Cruz. Kidman, Hudson and Berry are wishful thinking.
Blanchett will probably have the strongest movie among all of them, enough for nominations. And Cruz is very likely in.
The thing is Blanchett will most likely go lead, Searchlight won’t be delusional enough to try to make three nominations happen in supporting with Mara and Collette being the other two viable options but her role would have had to be expanded considerably for that lead campaign to make any sense or have any chance against all the proper star vehicles this year.
Cruz is a very solid early contender whose chances will depend entirely on how the high-profile unseens will fare in the next few weeks.
I think Hudson is still top5 for now but I don’t expect that to stick since at least 2-3 of the 7 unseens will most likely pop and that will be the end of several campaigns of contenders who may have peaked too early.
As for Berry, yes, I admit, I definitely have a good dose of wishful thinking mixed up in there since the film definitely sounds more like her Southpaw than her Million Dollar Baby. I guess I just can’t shake the idea that it could be such an epic Oscar narrative for her to make the cut under these very peculiar circumstances. For what it’s worth I think the trailer will be released in a few hours, that will probably give us a slightly better picture of what to expect from this film / performance.
And Kidman ? Yeah, I don’t think that’s wishful thinking at all. She has one of the most impressive and versatile filmographies of all current A-list actresses so based on that I firmly believe she will deliver this time, too, especially if the Sorkin script is solid. We’ll see soon enough, trailer / guild screening reactions should arrive in the next few weeks.
Kidman seems so strong on paper. She is beloved. The movie will hit late. Reports are that the film is very good. She has Bardem, which can only help. Having said that, she can ONLY suffer from comparisons to Lucille Ball and/or how Kidman plays her. I don’t see it, but welcome the chance for Kidman to prove me wrong. She certainly has the chops.
what do you think of bruised the critics seems so warm up with the trailer?
I think the performance looks strong, at first glance the films looks more Southpaw than Million Dollar Baby, but with a much more Oscar friendly release date so I think she is definitely in their with a shot. We will know more on the 13th when it premieres at AFI and the embargo will end.
Could Comer go supporting or is her role too big for that? I really like her but I don’t see her making it in with such a packed field, yet it’d be quite refreshing to have her at the Oscars.
Nice to see you have Kidman in your hunch. She’s laying low right now because we have no trailers or reviews, but once things get moving she’ll either rise or sink.
Anything can still happen since the Academy literally can do whatever they want as far as acting category placements go (LaKeith Stanfield, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Kate Winslet’s winning season come to mind) but I think for now Disney is sticking to a lead campaign that is definitely risky when the narrative of the film is split into three parts with Comer’s POV only being one of them. Not sure what to think of Comer’s chances just yet, I will say that the film getting much better reviews than suggested by the early word, will definitely help, especially if BO is decent and the film gets some traction in other above the line categories. With 70 MC / 87 RT, its critical reception is good enough for BP (filler) consideration, who knows if Scott’s other film this year will even have these kind of numbers. If not, The Last Duel could become, somewhat unexpectedly, his main Oscar bid this season.
I have Comer in my Top 5 Lead for now. But. I think that a later release date and slightly better reviews would’ve been a slam dunk for her in Lead (and not Supporting). At this point, it’s reallllllly iffy.
Right now my top 5:
1. Chastain
2. Cruz
3. Mcdormand
4. Gaga
5. Berry
6. Stewart
7. Kidman
8. Colman
9. Hudson
10. Blanchett
11. Ziegler
12. Bennet
I don’t think anyone is locked in this category, and I don’t know who will win. They all have good chances but some detractors. The only acting race that feels like it has locked nominations, is best actor. I like good heated acting races, especially when the wins are all over the place like last year! It makes Oscar night more fun and challenging!
I love Chastain’s work, she is one of my absolute favourite actresses and has been for years but realistically speaking, I no longer see her winning and could even see her struggle to make the final 5 in the end. The truth is her film opened way too early (September) and underperformed both with critics (55 MC) and audiences (2M in semi-wide release) and based on precedent that is not a winning combination.
Only three actresses won with that kind of critical consensus in the last few decades and all three films were BO hits with Oscar friendly release dates (Nov-Dec) and 2 of the 3 were BP nominees (The Iron Lady, The Blind Side, The Reader). The Eyes of Tammy Faye has none of those great advantages to fall back on.
As for Stewart, we will just have to agree to disagree on her bid. I firmly believe she is the only near lock for the nomination at the moment and by that I don’t mean she will definitely win I mean that she is most likely to get nominated.
Winning is an entirely different ballgame especially if more than one of the yet unseens strike gold with critics and audiences.
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Hi Ryan. Did you get my email?
Thanks Ryan!
Please tell me again because I ‘m probably missing something here:
What exactly is the difference between McDormand and Blanchett in this race?
– Both are two among the best actresses in the business
– Both are loved by the Academy and have five Oscars together
– Both star this year in high-profile Best Picture hopefuls
– Both have Lead or maybe Supporting roles in it
And yet, you have McDormand as No. 2 in your predictions above and Blanchett as No. 15 (at the bottom ???) in your predictions above.
Okay, NA has yet to be seen BUT having Berry, Bullock, Lawrence and Zegler over Blanchett makes ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE when at the same time you have McDormand ranked as No. 2.
And your arguments for that are unconvincing to say the least (especially for Berry and Lawrence).
But back to McDormand-Blanchett comparison:
1) Do you think that Shakespearean adaptation automatically has much more prestige than neo-noir based on source novel ? Maybe but for 13 places above? That’s harsh. If yes why is neo-noir genre not an Oscar movie (remember Chinatown?) but countless (and in most cases mediocre) biopics are? And Shakespearean adaptation are hardly Academy’s thing – so far.
2) Is Frances better campaigner than Cate when it comes to Oscars? I really don’t know so if that’s the reason you may be right ?
3) Why are you so sure that McDormand has Lead role (when she says other wise) but Blanchett must have small role, unworthy of Best Actress contender ? Anyway, do you have some informations we don’t know about yet? If yes, please share with us.
The biggest difference between McDormand and Blanchett is that one has been seen / reviewed / raved about already while the other hasn’t. On that list no unseen performance gets into the top8 by design.
The second biggest difference is the quality of the roles : Lady Macbeth is one of the most iconic female roles in literature and cited by many A-listers as their dream role (Viola Davis and Glenn Close just to name a few), it is also a proper co-lead role even if sometimes those end up in supporting. In contrast Blanchett’s role, while a strong one in the original, is no Lady Macbeth as far as prestige goes, and it is definitely not a lead or co-lead role unless it was expanded, in the original it is a categorically supporting character.
Full disclosure : I love Blanchett, I pretty much loved her in everything she has been in, especially in Elizabeth, I’m Not There and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and I also marvelled at her ability to elevate material in lesser films like The Gift, Ocean’s 8 and Veronica Guerin.
Me not considering her a viable contender in lead this season is solely down to factors that based on precedent, are crucial for an Oscar campaign. Factors such as size of the role, genre of the film etc.
When Nightmare Alley debuts to raves (like The Tragedy of Macbeth) and Blanchett is confirmed to be a co-lead based on the narrative of the film (like McDormand was) then I will be happy to move her up on my list. But until then I think proper lead or co-lead roles from equally high-profile contenders, simply have a better shot here.
Now if they confirm her placement in supporting, that’s a whole different ballgame. She could be a major threat for even the win in that category.
I just don’t think that role is big enough for a lead campaign.
That’s all.
P.s. Brutal honesty ? I would prefer McDormand in supporting although I don’t think that will happen. I love her work but I have a bit of a McDormand fatigue in the Oscar-context. She is great but she is not 4-time Lead Actress winner great, not in my eyes at least. I was rooting for others the last two times she was nominated.
“…while things have been quiet around the film since then…”
Um, I saw the film for a second time at NYFF where it was extremely well-received—the only people who are quiet are the pundits who appear to have decided that there can only be one black-centric film this year: King Richard, so they have all rallied around it, not even considering Passing as the Best Picture and Best Director contender it should be.
I meant more like with its world premiere in Sundance in January and very little fall festival presence (I think only NYFF), it clearly hasn’t peaked yet but will in November when its critical consensus is final and it is finally released on Netflix for all to see (and praise and talk about).
Thanks! Clearly, I’m passionate about this film, and I want to see it do well, as it should. 🙂
Not going to take the bait, not going to take the bait….
Last eight Best Actress winners also won BAFTA??? That’s a really interesting stat, no?