Even in the strange times we’re living through right now, with the Oscar race and everything else, there are movies that are emerging as the year’s best. It’s just something you can sense. If I was not paying attention to the tastemakers right now and was just looking at the year in film so far, I would think the best five films would be:
Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
The Last Duel
Dune
Those would be the five. Full stop. The rest of the films in play right now, other than those we’ve yet to see (House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza, Westside Story, Don’t Look Up, Nightmare Alley), are negotiable. Even the top five are negotiable. There is much we do not know.
This is the moment when I’d like to point out one crucial note that no one should ever forget about predicting the Oscar race. First, let’s start with what we already know through our conversations so far this year:
- Diversity, equity, and inclusion are going to matter. Voters are not going to suddenly forget all that and “go back to normal,” I don’t think.
- Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor winners more often than not appear in Best Picture contenders. It would probably not hurt to think about Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress in that way too, though it is less locked in than the male categories, at least so far.
- Think ten, not five. We spent the years 2011-2020 saying “think five, not ten,” now we have to reverse it. It means, if history is any indication, that the scope should be wider. Imagine how you’d predict the Producers Guild, for instance. Where thinking about five would bring you more emotional, heroic stories of good people doing good things (give or take a Wolf of Wall Street), thinking about ten might take you to other places, like saving Hollywood from collapsing by nominating more popular movies.
- The Golden Globes have, in the past, pulled us out of the film critics bubble and helped to broaden the scope of what films might be considered for Best Picture (like Bohemian Rhapsody, for example). But we may or may not get useful nominations from the HFPA this year, and we need to bear in mind that their picks will be greatly impacted by their recent controversy and their alliance with the NAACP.
- Film Twitter/Oscar Twitter is a deceptive bubble. They mainly speak to their own audiences and followers. It isn’t that they will be wrong when it comes to predictions. They might be right. But their sensibilities are different from the majority in the industry. Sometimes they overlap, but it’s always important to remember that the people you want to reach are past Twitter and wandering around the real world.
Now we’re going to add a sixth important point and it’s key when it comes to Best Picture: the DGA drives the Best Picture race even more than Best Director at the Oscars does.
When you are making your list for Best Picture, think about your DGA five. That will guide you to the right place. What we know about the DGA is that they have roughly 15,000 members. They are asked to vote for films, I believe, without the directors names on them (I am not 100% sure on that). They definitely pay attention to the general consensus as it is being formed, most notably what the Globes do. And they tend to match Best Picture in almost every case except one.
Here is a long chart that looks at the Best Picture race vis a vis Best Director, Globes Director and the DGA. By far, the DGA is the most reliable, but especially in the era of the expanded ballot. In general, six films seem to be the average number of films that have at least one Best Director mention prior to heading into Best Picture. There is usually one outlier title either at the DGA or for Oscar Best Picture that simply shows up. That would be the wild card guess.
The Globes don’t have as tight a relationship to Best Picture as the DGA does. Mind you, there is something odd at play when the only DGA nominee since 2009 not to get in for either Best Picture or Best Director at the Oscars was The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo’s David Fincher. It’s kind of a badge of honor to earn the admiration of the DGA and neither of those two Academy categories. That’s because Dragon Tattoo was a masterpiece, but there was nothing warm, fuzzy and uplifting about it. Also, the Academy’s directors branch has traditionally blocked directors they feel intimidated by. It might not be a nice way to say it, though that has never stopped me in the past (I’ve grown up a bit in 20 years, what can I say) and I’ll say it one last time: to quote Postcards from the Edge, they want you to be GOOD, just not better than they are.
It sounds a little bitter to say that now. The Academy voters clearly just pick what they like, and their tastes are relatively easy to figure out. It is what it is.
It’s still too early to call what will be in for the DGA, for Globe Director (if there is a Globes), or Oscar’s Best Director. We just don’t know right now. But in predicting Best Picture, it’s a good idea to start there. What would your DGA five be?
Right now, mine would be:
Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
The Last Duel or House of Gucci
Dune (or Nightmare Alley)
Then, I might select one of the films that has not yet been seen. Since the DGA loves Steven Spielberg with a mad passion, I would probably add his name.
If the Globes have a non-broadcast list this year, they will be different, I would imagine. I would probably go:
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Passing or Respect
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel or Dune
That is just a totally random prediction. I doubt that is what the final five will be. Ridley Scott might have three nominations here with Best Picture — Drama, Best Picture — Comedy, and then maybe Best Director.
Obviously predicting the Globes is near impossible, but I am going to imagine they cover their asses bases in terms of BIPOC and women.
Then, Oscar Best Director would be:
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
This is just pointless spit-balling. It would end the Best Picture prediction list like this:
Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
The Last Duel
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
House of Gucci
Dune
And then to fill the 10th slot, which could either be Spencer, dragged along by Kristen Stewart’s performance, Mass, dragged along by that ensemble, or anything that pops at SAG. And maybe even No Time to Die — who knows, if the Oscars want to expand and become more populist. You never know. Heck, even Eternals might land in that tenth spot. Cyrano could be in there, dragged along by the strength of the actors and especially Peter Dinklage. Based on the power of Best Actor, I will go with Cyrano.
So now I go over to Erik Anderson at AwardsWatch and find the following:
1. Belfast (Focus Features) ↑ [Telluride, TIFF]
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) ↓ [Venice, Telluride, TIFF, NYFF]
3. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
4. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) ↑ [Telluride, AFI]
5. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) ↓ [Venice, TIFF, NYFF]
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple) ↓ [NYFF]
7. Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA) ↑
8. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) ↓
9. Spencer (NEON) ↑ [Venice, Telluride, TIFF]
10. Flee (NEON) ↓ [Sundance, Telluride, TIFF, NYFF]
Now on to predictions:
Best Picture
Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
The Last Duel
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
House of Gucci
Dune
Cyrano
Best Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ridley Scott, The Last Duel or House of Gucci
Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Alts: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, Tragedy of Macbeth
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Matt Damon, The Last Duel
Alt: Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Jessica Chastain, Eyes of Tammy Faye
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Alts: Frances McDormand, Tragedy of Macbeth; Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Ben Affleck, The Last Duel (or Tender Bar)
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Richard Jenkins, The Humans
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Supporting Actress
Ann Dowd, Mass
Judi Dench, Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Alt: Kirsten Dunst, Power of the Dog
Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
Dune
The Last Duel
CODA
Alts: House of Gucci, Lost Daughter
Original Screenplay
Belfast
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Spencer
Mass
Alts A Hero; C’Mon, C’Mon
Editing
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel
No Time to Die
Cinematography
Dune
The Tragedy of Macbeth
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
Nightmare Alley
Alt: The Last Duel
Costumes
Cruella
House of Gucci
Spencer
Nightmare Alley
Cyrano
Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel
Cruella
House of Gucci
Sound
Dune
West Side Story
No Time to Die
The Last Duel
Eternals
Visual Effects
Dune
Eternals
Shang-Chi
Free Guy
Matrix Resurrections
Animated Feature
Flee
Luca
Encanto
Mitchells vs. the Machines
Spirit Untamed
And that was all she wrote, folks. We still have many more months to go. So take it all with a huge grain of salt.