Even in the strange times we’re living through right now, with the Oscar race and everything else, there are movies that are emerging as the year’s best. It’s just something you can sense. If I was not paying attention to the tastemakers right now and was just looking at the year in film so far, I would think the best five films would be:
Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
The Last Duel
Dune
Those would be the five. Full stop. The rest of the films in play right now, other than those we’ve yet to see (House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza, Westside Story, Don’t Look Up, Nightmare Alley), are negotiable. Even the top five are negotiable. There is much we do not know.
This is the moment when I’d like to point out one crucial note that no one should ever forget about predicting the Oscar race. First, let’s start with what we already know through our conversations so far this year:
- Diversity, equity, and inclusion are going to matter. Voters are not going to suddenly forget all that and “go back to normal,” I don’t think.
- Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor winners more often than not appear in Best Picture contenders. It would probably not hurt to think about Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress in that way too, though it is less locked in than the male categories, at least so far.
- Think ten, not five. We spent the years 2011-2020 saying “think five, not ten,” now we have to reverse it. It means, if history is any indication, that the scope should be wider. Imagine how you’d predict the Producers Guild, for instance. Where thinking about five would bring you more emotional, heroic stories of good people doing good things (give or take a Wolf of Wall Street), thinking about ten might take you to other places, like saving Hollywood from collapsing by nominating more popular movies.
- The Golden Globes have, in the past, pulled us out of the film critics bubble and helped to broaden the scope of what films might be considered for Best Picture (like Bohemian Rhapsody, for example). But we may or may not get useful nominations from the HFPA this year, and we need to bear in mind that their picks will be greatly impacted by their recent controversy and their alliance with the NAACP.
- Film Twitter/Oscar Twitter is a deceptive bubble. They mainly speak to their own audiences and followers. It isn’t that they will be wrong when it comes to predictions. They might be right. But their sensibilities are different from the majority in the industry. Sometimes they overlap, but it’s always important to remember that the people you want to reach are past Twitter and wandering around the real world.
Now we’re going to add a sixth important point and it’s key when it comes to Best Picture: the DGA drives the Best Picture race even more than Best Director at the Oscars does.
When you are making your list for Best Picture, think about your DGA five. That will guide you to the right place. What we know about the DGA is that they have roughly 15,000 members. They are asked to vote for films, I believe, without the directors names on them (I am not 100% sure on that). They definitely pay attention to the general consensus as it is being formed, most notably what the Globes do. And they tend to match Best Picture in almost every case except one.
Here is a long chart that looks at the Best Picture race vis a vis Best Director, Globes Director and the DGA. By far, the DGA is the most reliable, but especially in the era of the expanded ballot. In general, six films seem to be the average number of films that have at least one Best Director mention prior to heading into Best Picture. There is usually one outlier title either at the DGA or for Oscar Best Picture that simply shows up. That would be the wild card guess.
The Globes don’t have as tight a relationship to Best Picture as the DGA does. Mind you, there is something odd at play when the only DGA nominee since 2009 not to get in for either Best Picture or Best Director at the Oscars was The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo’s David Fincher. It’s kind of a badge of honor to earn the admiration of the DGA and neither of those two Academy categories. That’s because Dragon Tattoo was a masterpiece, but there was nothing warm, fuzzy and uplifting about it. Also, the Academy’s directors branch has traditionally blocked directors they feel intimidated by. It might not be a nice way to say it, though that has never stopped me in the past (I’ve grown up a bit in 20 years, what can I say) and I’ll say it one last time: to quote Postcards from the Edge, they want you to be GOOD, just not better than they are.
It sounds a little bitter to say that now. The Academy voters clearly just pick what they like, and their tastes are relatively easy to figure out. It is what it is.
It’s still too early to call what will be in for the DGA, for Globe Director (if there is a Globes), or Oscar’s Best Director. We just don’t know right now. But in predicting Best Picture, it’s a good idea to start there. What would your DGA five be?
Right now, mine would be:
Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
The Last Duel or House of Gucci
Dune (or Nightmare Alley)
Then, I might select one of the films that has not yet been seen. Since the DGA loves Steven Spielberg with a mad passion, I would probably add his name.
If the Globes have a non-broadcast list this year, they will be different, I would imagine. I would probably go:
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Passing or Respect
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel or Dune
That is just a totally random prediction. I doubt that is what the final five will be. Ridley Scott might have three nominations here with Best Picture — Drama, Best Picture — Comedy, and then maybe Best Director.
Obviously predicting the Globes is near impossible, but I am going to imagine they cover their asses bases in terms of BIPOC and women.
Then, Oscar Best Director would be:
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
This is just pointless spit-balling. It would end the Best Picture prediction list like this:
Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
The Last Duel
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
House of Gucci
Dune
And then to fill the 10th slot, which could either be Spencer, dragged along by Kristen Stewart’s performance, Mass, dragged along by that ensemble, or anything that pops at SAG. And maybe even No Time to Die — who knows, if the Oscars want to expand and become more populist. You never know. Heck, even Eternals might land in that tenth spot. Cyrano could be in there, dragged along by the strength of the actors and especially Peter Dinklage. Based on the power of Best Actor, I will go with Cyrano.
So now I go over to Erik Anderson at AwardsWatch and find the following:
1. Belfast (Focus Features) ↑ [Telluride, TIFF]
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) ↓ [Venice, Telluride, TIFF, NYFF]
3. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
4. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) ↑ [Telluride, AFI]
5. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) ↓ [Venice, TIFF, NYFF]
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple) ↓ [NYFF]
7. Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA) ↑
8. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) ↓
9. Spencer (NEON) ↑ [Venice, Telluride, TIFF]
10. Flee (NEON) ↓ [Sundance, Telluride, TIFF, NYFF]
Now on to predictions:
Best Picture
Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
The Last Duel
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
House of Gucci
Dune
Cyrano
Best Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ridley Scott, The Last Duel or House of Gucci
Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Alts: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, Tragedy of Macbeth
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Matt Damon, The Last Duel
Alt: Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Jessica Chastain, Eyes of Tammy Faye
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Alts: Frances McDormand, Tragedy of Macbeth; Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Ben Affleck, The Last Duel (or Tender Bar)
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Richard Jenkins, The Humans
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Supporting Actress
Ann Dowd, Mass
Judi Dench, Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Alt: Kirsten Dunst, Power of the Dog
Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
Dune
The Last Duel
CODA
Alts: House of Gucci, Lost Daughter
Original Screenplay
Belfast
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Spencer
Mass
Alts A Hero; C’Mon, C’Mon
Editing
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel
No Time to Die
Cinematography
Dune
The Tragedy of Macbeth
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
Nightmare Alley
Alt: The Last Duel
Costumes
Cruella
House of Gucci
Spencer
Nightmare Alley
Cyrano
Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel
Cruella
House of Gucci
Sound
Dune
West Side Story
No Time to Die
The Last Duel
Eternals
Visual Effects
Dune
Eternals
Shang-Chi
Free Guy
Matrix Resurrections
Animated Feature
Flee
Luca
Encanto
Mitchells vs. the Machines
Spirit Untamed
And that was all she wrote, folks. We still have many more months to go. So take it all with a huge grain of salt.
I think Ridley scott deserves an honorary oscar or at least a competitive one at best. Ridley scott lost to Steven sodebergh in 2000 to traffic but ridley’s picture gladiator went on to win 5 oscars including best picture. Tf anything this is sir Ridley Scott’s year. There’s no major director like Ridley to do epics that the academy likes often.
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Exerpt from Gold derby.com proves the disenchantment between established ultra talented established peers within film industry like riding star of filmmsjwrs in effervescent Dennis Villanue ( who Dune would be favourite this year if it was not a duology 2 part movie )… that PROVES that streaming services have too much power and dilute create type of discrepancies in box office performance for awards contenders where streaming services potentially act against interstate of traditional studio film.
The Last Duel box office flop is attributed to ONLY one reason too reinforced by Villanue broader viewpoint… box office successes in traditional cineplex has become the domain of young excitable demographic The Older film goer elected stay home cos pandemic makes those older more vulnerable to getting delta variant.
..while Villsnue has not said this hw implies bias box office is to younger age groups so course Lasy Duel along wirh Dune it appears ( thoyhj Dune will appeal to younger audiences more than last duel) , so it be impacted less so.
But proves point to that streaming services are threatening what merits there once was riding too much into Oscar contender box office performer…this ought be inconsequential given awards season track record consistently awarding lower box office performers more years than not.
This is why the media need to stop overeeporting box office… sometimes it warranted factor in box office if critics live film as much as audiences do BUT this pandemic.
The studio of Last Duel is not to blame or it marketing or it merits for it being a flop…not black and white like that…Villanue’s concerns are justified ..what I respect most bout likes of Ridley Scott andVillanue, Nolan etc..is they advocated for traditional blockbuster and very aware of crisis point tesfitional big screen filmmaking is at thanx to pandemic..I call on though not happen awards season be postponed…just be too much over and under-representation and diluted reporting and online media that I fear will already has tainted what little faith or hope fol. Going puic have in awards season
….
It only go down the tube faster if they refuse to postpone this year’s awards season which clear they ginna ram through for sake sticking sticking schedule. .Last Duel is victim to the pandemic and streaming services violation of breach of trust big Hollywood studios who trusted in these multi billion dollar streamers to look out for their interests we need more film-makers like Nolan and Villanue to stand up for role of big screen movie in awards season to primarily return to big screenviewing ..
Nobody here can say orshould responsibly So Last Duel is rejected for instance by filmgoing public if u 35+ and over and unvaccinatex would you damn well go ? Even if u had single shot would you go knowing u higher risk older u are ?
This is NOT bout pitiful ideology as minority here have you think it bout once again grave risk to detriment if awards season they nitpicking grab bags like conflicted confused jigsaw puzzle that doesn’t come together with mismatched pieces trying to force mismatched pieces of puzzle together..what u get trying force mismatched pieces together ?
ANOTHER MISREPRESENTED BUNCH OF CLYSTERFUK OF OSCAR CONTENDERSas in one’s awards season preference are not best reflection of public critics sentiment with level of clarity and consistent stability rises above political ideologies academy awards sorelyBADLY needs.
I got dreadful feeling with more film-makers esch year speaking out against misrepresentation of what is / isn’t successful box office performer that traditional big screen epic is at risk bring dying breed and awards season be poorer for snubbing films like last duel u count on that,a and others like it!
Why didn’t all of those poor attacked victims in red states show up for The Last Duel and No Time To Die?
YOUR the one politicising and misleading stereotypes…trying to create antagonisms between left and right difference between you and me is that I advocate in my views for the sensible centre…clearly you ate anti big screen pro- leftist pro- twitter…u entitled to be…but frankly it prudent to NOT stereotype mislead other commenters here braking out to somehow arrogantly presume as you do without facts that other reasons beyond political that adversely impacted box office.. and IF awards season is gonna spin on a dime on judging by box office performance…they are rank hypocrits …the irrefutable fact is there ONLY been one blockbuster in parasite…in a 5 yr period box office has been a NON FACTOR for Oscar contender . You know this if you looked beyond your resentment of the right.
TRUE cinema and why THELAST DUEL I confident before seeing it is Scott’s best potentially since Gladiator ( which won best picture on poorer reviews and bigger box office relative to Last Duel that has far stronger reviews and lower box office no less)..
But wake up people BOX OFFICE I’d IRRELEVANT reflected from Oscars best picture winners majority of it awards seasons in last decade.. a dismal box office return compared to other contenders ( don’t forget even in year parasite wo best pic it was sooverall not best box office contender…that honir went to Joker easily that year….
It time neverhess for awards season to have consistency…and the media need to be held accountable for overemphasizing role of box office in awards season… Oscar chosen in last decade to disregard box office so it be heightt of their arrogance and hypocrisy to sideline the last duel… and filmd of that calibre.
.not box office flop when film targeted for 35+ age demographic RARE in nowadays for big screen epic… of this calibre, during pandemic THaT why last duels targeted age demographic didn’t show up not politics u don’t have ANY proof red states not turning up to see last duel.
.so don’t surge crap
The dismal box-office performance of The Last Duel may heavily affect its chances for the awards season.
Naive I extreme u are aware I hope? Double vaccination rate in America still playing catch up with magnitude delta j fections of covid right? Sometimes it prudent take into account context ey,? If u capable doing that. Not asblack and white much as u wish for it be so scenario u raise at all
With the conclusion of the London Film Festival 2021, I figured I’d make a ranking of the 18 films that I was lucky enough to see there, with some short thoughts (spoiler-free!) on them. (Sorry for clogging this mostly unrelated post with such personal venting, I just find no better place to put this!)
I’m using my good old all-time rating system of 0-5 stars including half (empty) stars, where four stars roughly align with ‘Good Film’.
18. The Harder They Fall (by Jeymes Samuel)
Rating: ★★★
A modern take on the Western genre, starring Idris Elba and a great Black ensemble. A feature film debut for Samuel, it has a firm voice and great musicality. Unfortunately, the pace drags quite a bit. LaKeith Stanfield makes a badass bandit!
17. Belfast (by Kenneth Branagh)
Rating: ★★★
The good news for Branagh’s film is that the audience seemed to like this one a lot more than I did, so maybe the issue is with me. The Dench-Hinds duo is a delight to watch, while Balfe centers the film emotionally.
16. Drive My Car (by Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
Rating: ★★★
I feel like I just don’t really click with this subgenre of Murakami-inspired philosophical tales. Nevertheless, there are plenty of moments to like in this lengthy feature, with great acting across the board. Also, I feel like I can recite half of Uncle Vanya after watching this.
15. The French Dispatch (by Wes Anderson)
Rating: ★★★☆
Unfortunately the biggest disappointment of the festival for me. All the visual brilliance and the “andersonisms” are still there, just this time around there’s isn’t much of a story there to make it come together. The film tells essentially three separate short stories – to me, the middle one with Timothée Chalamet and Frances McDormand was the highlight.
14. Last Night in Soho (by Edgar Wright)
Rating: ★★★☆
I found this film to be a highly entertaining popcorn horror flick. Not much of a point to it, but a great time in the cinema. Thomasin McKenzie really carries the whole thing on her back, and it positively surprised me how little it resembled Edgar Wright’s previous work. Not too scary, so even I could handle it!
13. King Richard (by Reinaldo Marcus Green)
Rating: ★★★☆
I was actually surprised by how much I enjoyed this. Yes, it’s a by-the-numbers Hollywood sports biopic that happily hits some cliché notes, but overall it is well crafted and well paced, with a strong ensemble of actors. Strangely, I found Will Smith to be the weakest among them. I would expect this film to be a serious Best Picture contender.
12. The Lost Daughter (by Maggie Gyllenhaal)
Rating: ★★★★
I went into this film not reading or knowing much about it other than Olivia Colman is in it and Maggie Gyllanhaal is directing. It turned out to be one of the stranger films of the festival. It tackles some topics that are rarely talked about in cinema, and allows Colman to play someone outside of her usual comfort zone (she’s great, as always). Very impressive directorial debut by Gyllenhaal, and a lot more “cinematic” than many actor-turned-directors let their films be!
11. The Worst Person in the World (by Joachim Trier)
Rating: ★★★★
I haven’t seen a previous film from Trier, but I feel like this was a good place to start. I found the film to be, somehow, very “European”, following a main character through some years of her life, and getting to know the people that are drifting in and out of her life in that period. Renate Reinsve is giving a star performance, along with the supporting cast. Trier’s writing is essential, of course, for success, and he certainly pulls it off, following interesting conversation after interesting conversation.
10. Il Buco (by Michelangelo Frammartino)
Rating: ★★★★
This is in some sense an amazing film. With virtually no dialogue, it’s pulling off visual storytelling on a level I’ve rarely seen before. Following a group of cave explorers descending into the deepest hole in Europe, it really pushes the boundary of what a fiction film is, and what a story is. Filmed in the breathtaking Calabrian mountains in Italy, it is especially recommended for anyone who can lose themselves in pictures of beautiful hills and valleys. Watch it in a cinema.
9. Petite Maman (by Céline Sciamma)
Rating: ★★★★
This is a short and sweet elaboration on a beautiful, simple idea from the amazing Sciamma. I don’t want to spoil anything, so I’ll just say that there are cute children, beautiful French woods, and plenty of emotions.
8. Red Rocket (by Sean Baker)
Rating: ★★★★
My favourite Sean Baker film, this was a real surprise. Baker is excellent at setting stories among the disadvantaged in America, and this one is no different. However, he now goes for a more structured script, which I think helps his style a lot, as it grounds characters and the environment which lets them shine brighter. Highly entertaining, funny, and sometimes emotional – great times at the cinema.
7. Titane (by Julia Ducournau)
Rating: ★★★★
What can I say? It’s actually not as gory as I feared it would be, nor is it scary at all. It is however very funny, very entertaining, and Ducournau’s visual style just explodes off the screen. Brilliant performances, very original setting, and some of the most memorable scenes of cinema in some time.
6. C’mon C’mon (by Mike Mills)
Rating: ★★★★
This was the Surprise Film of the festival, and thank god it was, because I probably wouldn’t have caught it otherwise. Featuring one of the very best child performances I have ever seen by Woody Norman, it is a beautiful, funny, heartbreaking tale about parenthood and childhood. The writing of most of the scenes between Joaquin Phoenix and Norman is out-of-this-world beautiful, natural and just amazing. I have some stylistic issues with the film that keeps me from rating it even higher, but certainly the biggest positive surprise for me.
5. The Hand of God (by Paolo Sorrentino)
Rating: ★★★★☆
It’s just brilliant. The first long section of the film is dedicated to introducing us to the main character, Fabietto (inspired by Sorrentino’s youth), and his big and hilarious family. Lots of characters get introduced, and we can feel like we are sitting with them at the dinner table, chatting and laughing and just having a great time. The film evokes family, Italy, and youth beautifully. After this first part, it goes on with a story about Fabietto’s life with its ups and downs, and I found myself completely invested and absorbed by the beautiful Naples. Gorgeous cinema.
4. Memoria (by Apichatpong Weerasethakul)
Rating: ★★★★☆
This film made me think about sound in a way nothing ever did before. That alone warrants this placement on my list, but it also explores memory, history, mythology in beautiful and poignant ways. The sound design of the film is probably the best I’ve ever heard in my life, plus the cinematography is excellent, and Tilda Swinton delivers a mesmerising performance at the center of it all. Overall an amazing film, do catch it in the cinema. (Not that you can catch it any other way, lol.)
3. Spencer (by Pablo Larraín)
Rating: ★★★★☆
Like a strange, nightmarish vision, this film offers a glimpse into the psyche of a broken, tortured person. Not the introduction to any generic Lady Di biopic, right? Larraín again delivers something that feels completely fresh, using the story of a well known real-life person to sketch a film entirely his own. Kristen Stewart gives a tour de force performance as Diana, but while she completely disappears into the role, her performance is not focused on recreating the image of the real Diana, but rather serving Larraín’s vision as his troubled central character. The crafts are also exceptional – from Claire Mathon’s cinematography, to Jonny Greenwood’s score, all the set design and costumes are perfectly made to create this surreal version of a Christmas at Sandringham.
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (by Joel Coen)
Rating: ★★★★★
Oh wow. Just saw this one today as the closing night film, and I’m left speechless. Coen manages to create something that is very much cinema, but also somewhat theatre, but not filmed theatre, but also not completely cinema. In this film, Coen has created something that completely translates the language of theatre into the language of cinema. The result is a heavily stilised film where nothing is ever truly real, but it is very true, and its truth leaves the screen to settle in the soul of the audience. I’ve never quite seen anything like this in my life. The acting is brilliant throughout – both leads, Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand, put their whole person behind the text and create something for the ages. (I am now less convinced that McDormand can’t win another Oscar this year.) Kathryn Hunter brings a very original, very physical, sometimes unsettling performance as the Witches, a true highlight. The production design is astonishing and almost certainly the best of the year. The cinematography is just as breathtaking throughout as it seems from the trailer. It’s an instant classic.
1. The Power of the Dog (by Jane Campion)
Rating: ★★★★★
I can’t rave enough about this. Jane Campion seems to have created a truly flawless film, which affected me deeply for several days after I’ve seen it. I really want to be as spoiler-free as possible so I won’t say much, but I found this story extremely moving, and the care and beauty and tenderness Campion adapts it with is astonishing. (And I’m one of the few people around here who don’t necessarily adore The Piano!) The performances (especially Cumberbatch and Smit-McPhee) – brilliant, Jonny Greenwood’s score – brilliant, Ari Wegner’s cinematography – brilliant, the production and costume design – brilliant, everything about this film is brilliant. I need to restrain myself not to overpraise it – I really need to see it for a second time to have a firm opinion anyway, but it would be extremely hard for any film to take this one over as this year’s number one for me.
Seeing Drive my car that low really hurt…. Amazing list, looking forward to watch them all, lucky you !
Thank you for this list.
Thank you for your words aroncido
Seeing Drive my car that low really hurt…. Amazing list, looking forward to watch them all, lucky you !
Just watched “Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy” (and loved it!) thus I´m still very much looking forward to see “Drive my car”, but great to see my excitement for films like “Spencer”, “Memoria” and especially “The Power of the Dog” is even boosted by your ravs – thanks for your great round-up!
“The good news for Branagh’s film is that the audience seemed to like this one a lot more than I did”
Which seems to be a increasingly common reaction from film Disqus. IF this is a year where the Academy is going to go full on audience friendly, then Belfast runs away with this thing.
WoW Aroncido…while we don’t necessarily agree the films u like best different to type I like.. I always had tremendous respect manner you go about summising u films you like..it always privilege read your insights ..some thankful minority don’t understand how I position myself over years of nor bout trashing others politicslviews it broader toxic misrepresentation and miss formation of overall direction of awards season as they take divisive tactics to derail jig screen traditional studio reflected by choice of film they champion…
But I take my hat off to you with you amazing summary breakdown of All above movies.
But forgive me I cannot by life me see how Power of Dog is your ‘ far ands away ‘ favourite I take note u not seen last duel , house of Gucci, westside story remake, cyrano, Dune…but I open maybe to persuasion why I should see POW er of Dog ey? Esp coming from. You mate
Thanks for the kind words!
Of course, I have not yet seen the film you list – this is only a ranking of the films I have seen during the London Film Festival, not the entire year.
About persuading you, I can really only say what I’ve said above – The Power of the Dog is an astonishing film, I can’t wait to watch it again and again.
Your very welcome I admit honestly what puts me off with films of calibre what Oscar gone for far toooo much in last decade especially is that the noise comes from social media and Twitter and combined with Oscars blind legiance more often than not to this, the extent of traditional bog screen movie being sidelined far more often than not to win best picture and dominate least 1/3rd of a decade as per prior decades of academy… that to me I do suspect predict silent majority who fear speaking with conviction against invasive nature of social media interference and obstruction within awards season …..would opt for numerous other films other than Power of the Dog. Seems to me there genuine opportunity to embrace true authentic return to big screen movie experience .
With likes of some other Films u listed and ones I mentioned …just cos there a pandemic does not justify smaller more intimate scal stories like power of Dog other similar types I’m limited scope and scale and release to public at large… cos the trends that put Me off films that derivative in considerable part from social media scape…not say ‘ Dog’ might have more to it than that but…again how many dark twisted themed films have dominated Oscar best pic in last decade elevated by sociological issues ?
U know? I fatigued on it wouldn’t u like see genuine big screen movie wij best picture ? By u own admission …u yet to see some really big screen films yet open ey?
I think the issue is not with screen size. I love big screen films – but indeed many many films near the top of my list are big screen films. The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Spencer, Memoria, Titane… these are grand, visually rich films most properly enjoyed on a towering cinema screen. I’m of course looking forward to see all the other “big screen” films you listed later in the year – but don’t mistake something just because it’s on a festival to be small scale – these films most certainly aren’t.
I think your issue is in fact not with wanting “big screen” films, but “big popularity” films. I very much agree with you that it would be great if “big” films that lots of people see and are generally popular with everyone would be a welcome addition to the Oscars.
I think, however, that the issue is that people just aren’t watching films in those numbers anymore. Films that a decade ago might have been popular hits are nowadays box office bombs, or maybe minor successes. “Big” films are no longer big. There’s no Titanic around the corner.
And even when the Oscars nominate popular films – for example, Black Panther was very very popular – people don’t care any more for the Oscars. It feels like we’re not going to have the “event” Oscar back, no matter how hard we try. It’s going to be a more and more insular thing that only fans enjoy. And if so, we might as well just root for the films we like instead of pandering to the people who aren’t watching anyway.
It debatable your conclusion though just saying u know mate? I see where where coming from don’t misunderstand I not implying only big big epics should be favoured for best pic …but it is concerning generally as long as political correctness drives oldest only major arts institution in AMPAS isnt it ? That this past decade of what Oscar favours runs contrary to prior several decades of life of Oscars history…it about proportion of favoured smaller scale social driven agenda type thematic stories ….I dispute notion that not bout ‘ how hard we try ‘ but bout using some common sense…to clarify as some seem misunde a tend my dear friend….I not advocating for mcu or next star wars to win best pic… never have …still not sold of power of Dog… honestly? This deserves to be for health and optimistic improved ratings outcone of Oscar and their self respect and dignity …a open Oscar race no cleat frontrunner at very least.
Certainly Scott’s the Last Duel does not deserve to be snubbed… esp cos huge trap inadvertently he set within three of the big screen epic..it traditional big screen epic that grapples with very present day issues …it not that simple for domineering socialist dominated agenda within academy to dismiss or dump on this film…it just proves how limited ways social issues can be represented in film…and shreds little credibility these key board warrior that overrepresented award season for far too longer than is justified , and the restrictive criteria seems be dangerous negligent message that is ONLY we reason why ‘ Last duel ‘be snubbed if it not set in present day it be attacked.
Scott has cleverly set a trap not intentions but his genius and smarts in filmmaking… will the leftist pro- modern one dimensional social media dominated panel of judges in AMPAS take the bait ? It ultimate poisoned chalice here right ?
I sure on Power of the Dog that I can’t deny it be better film than last years winner but it no foregone conclusion this year should have it far and away ahead of pack and I question extent of focus on depressing dark themes that been favoured all too often by Oscar in films … implications in Oscar worthy films of evil men doing bad things , rape, victimisation, abuse, suffering, pain, agony, distressing scenes enveloping designed to force msg home front and centre of central attributes of these films , they have a place but these matters been elevated far more than is justified…. that is why I have deep reservations on power of the dog… but I least give u it better than nomadland .
Curious is Jane Campion quite old as film-makers?
Jane Campion is 67 years old. She’s a true veteran, having been the first woman to win the Palme D’Or back in 1993.
SHE LOOKS OLDER sorry forgto to disable caps lock…i note she won a best director oscar once before is this correct? if so time to give someone who not won oscar a chance- or one that so overdue it insult to the industry that is one of modern pioneers most hardworking prolific filmmakers that of Sir Ridley Scott…we see how his other film ‘ House of Gucci ‘ fairs relative to attention ‘ Last Duel’ is getting ey?
Campion only won Best Screenplay for The Piano, not Best Director. She may well be considered overdue.
Well…Ridley Scott is eons streaks ahead far MORE OVERDUE than Campion or ANY other filmmaker i can think of…let see after Gladiator. Scott has been far more prolific and more highly regarded filmmaker for outstanding consistency (with only a MINORITY) of film flops and only a minority since Gladiator of critics flops.
Many of his films have left a indellible mark on high quality critically acclaimed blockbusters…performances in most of his films are superb and he never EVER loses site of his own inventive signature brand of vision blended with his technical mastery over his direction…From Black Hawk Down through to well i cant remember in no particular order…American Gangster, All the Money in the World, to the underrated Kingdom of Heaven, to his even more ambitious not as great still hugely admirable ‘Exodus G-ds and Kings’, not to mention his influence on recent oscar contender in Blad Runner 2049 – a direct continuation and expansion of universe Scott Conjured 30 yrs ago..films he made 30 yrs ago still have a telling unfluence on films made to this day…HE IS THE NEW SCORSESE OF THE FILM WORLD UNDESERVEDLY SO!
I not putting down Campions achievements but honestly, given the Academy’s long flawed ‘ i owe you mentality’ that is the sole reason i make the case of past achievements for a filmmaker…then if the Academy were truly consistent on this principle then Ridley Scott would be preferenced to Campion to win besrt director easily..
Yes MAYBE Last Duel may not be his best work…but many debate whether ‘ the departed’ was Scorsese best work…it certainly was NOT his most ambitious or challenging esp as it was an adaptation and no less modern retelling of ‘internal affairs’ it different with ‘ the last duel’ which while MAY not be his best film based on scope of success in his careerr – for same reason Scorsese was won best director that year0- let not kid ourselves he was way past overdue to win best director and a BIG I OWE YOU factor was given when his film ad as director finally won best director..so why not Scott?
It HIS TIME regardless if LAST DUEL is his best work or not…and if it not now then fukin WHEN?…he did the underrated THE MARTIAN the first planetary set hybrid- broad scope- survival- epic drama comedy…that also focuses on challenges at mission control and amongst the crew who had no choice to leave Watney behind…i still strongly feel that that example of rare Scott feelgood uplifting film he should won best director for…and let not forget Alien his return to that his very brilliant prequel in Prometheus and his return with the delightfully self indulgent if somewhat simplistic Alien Covenant.
I think strongly at a certain point and factoring in the ‘i owe you’ culture the academy created put temselves into this avoidable predicament…the Academy may just stand chance to embrace a better established filmmaker in the public eye then a lesser known one..whatever Campion’s achievements they do not compare to height of Ridley Scott achievements he now older than Scorsese when he won best director breakthrough…it will be absolute ctastrophe to awards season reputation if the Guilds and the oscars cannot bring themselves to embrace one most self motivated, creative and diverse filmmakers of no less than least 5 most iconic gamechanger blockbusters that defined a generation or two in his time…
dont you think?
Tremendous, Aroncido. Thank you for all your effort and insight.
It’s looking like The Last Duel is going to bomb big time at the box office. How is it expected to “save the Oscars” now? It’s looking primed to be “Oscar ratings poison”, for people who care so much about Oscar ratings.
Terrible title and confusing trailer didn’t help.
Spirit Untamed for Best Animated Feature WUT?
Belfast – yep
King Richard – maybe
The Power of the Dog – winner
The Last Duel – nope, the movie bombed terribly this weekend and that’s beyond even covid excuse
Dune – yep
How much The Last Duel made at BO ?
Only 1.85M on Friday (including 350K on Thursday previews). Will make under 5M for 3 days. Worse than Green Knight (6.7M 3 days).
That’s still much better than Tammy Faye 🙂
Just kidding – different kind of flick.
How do you think it will make in general ? Just rough prediction.
a little above 10M in total. Is bound to get lots of screens slashed. Definitely under Green Knight’s 17M total. No idea how it’s doing overseas but heard it isn’t getting enough screens and it’s facing the same competition – Bond and Venom – though they don’t care for Halloween like Americans.
If I can make an educated guess, it would have probably done better under Fox alone but Disney is a poor match for a movie like this. They are lost when they have to sell a movie that isn’t family-friendly and isn’t a toy/merch factory. hence bad release date and very late marketing and promo tour that were more busy trying to convince the easily offended that the movie wasn’t offensive than selling the movie.
By the way everybody Sasha, Ryan why on earth are you not covering the looming major threat for nearly 70,000 film studio based workers in Hollywood go on strike over pay and conditions? this is a flashpoint that will unfortunately as awards season likes to do to it own deteriment..esp the DGA and PGA and oscars…like to turn the other cheek..if things are bad within the big studio community..in this case actors..then they turn a blind eye and back in the alternative films and actors..outside of hollywood or lesser known ones…i think i speak for all of us when i say…we only pray for the time Awards season restores some sense of common sense..by hitting a part of most important by far contributor to our film history of big film studio while they are fighting amongst themselves..is a recipe for another tainted, compromised quality wise cinematically publicly awards season so pple..here we go again..let the exploitation by the far left and the socialist twitterati begin….and WATCH ANY ratings improvement will be mild..i remind everyone..even in digital age BEFORE preferential ballot (which as of now we can all severely and should questions as to has it gone far far too far to favouring the smaller obsucre twitterati championed films?) BEFORE THIS TIME WHEN INTERNET AND STREAMING WAS STARTING TO BE VIABLE ALTERNATIVE…MOST pple have a TV even to this day so common sense therefore..the notion that ratings decline of awards season all their tentpole shows, is due to more people engaging on streaming and less on TV is a complete fabrication of the reality…still to this day most pple tune in to ceremonies on free to air..not everyone can access fastest internet or wants to to catch latest live shows..
So…in end…awards season is destined to at BEST have a marginal improvement in ratings, and even then it like proven as fact a colossal it will be – 7-9 million viewers down or 1/3rd to what it was pre- preferential ballot..
Finally…the key to diversity was never the preferential ballot..the key was keeping it to 10 nominees and diversifying the membership which ampas have done but now, they need to fast implement a balancing of the ledger within the membership to keep in check the extent of socialist – leftist..social media sympathisers who preference message education style films..of moral or immoral lessons…instead of the ONE KEY that seems inexplicably beyond awards season grasp: IF A HOST WILL BOOST + 2 MILLION VIEWERS TO IMPROVE AS I PREDICT AS GOOD AS 3 YRS AGO THEN TO SHOW REFLECTIVE FROM AWARD PRECURSORS THE BIG SCREEN STUDIO FILM…THAT PREFERENCES ARTISTIC MERIT AND ENTERTAINMENT VALUE AHEAD OF MORAL MSG FILMS..THEN THAT WILL RESTORE THE OTHER LOST THIRD OVER TYHE LAST DECADE..UNTIL THAT HAPPENS JOURNOS WHO PRO- THESE MSG FILMS THAT ANTI- BIG SCREEN TRADITIONAL FILMMAKING UNDESERVEDLY DOMINATING AWARDS SEASON AS MUCH AS THEY HAVE….CAN BE IN DENIAL ALL THEY WANT..TO CLAIM ‘VICTORY’ FOR IMPROVED RATINGS BUT LET ME SHATTER THEIR FOOLS HOPE FOR AWARDS SEASON APPEAL TO US WILL NEVER BE LEAST CLOSE TO LEVEL IT WAS A DECADE AGO AND IT NOT NOT! BECAUSE MORE PPLE STREAM THAN WATCH TV…WATCH LIVE SHOWS..CERTAIN DEMOGRAPHICS YES..BUT THE TRADITIONAL OLDER FILM VIEWER STILL PREFRENCE TV WHERE THEY GONE? HMM?
Sadly though i question the necessity of the timing of the unions uprising to threaten strike action at a time awards season need big screen studio films to stand up…G-d this is terrible for most of us..it a damn gift horse in the mouth now for awards season to turn on big studio movie..i hope i wrong..impress me for once if you DARE awards season impress silent majority of us if you can (doubt it but we see…)
Licorice Pizza maybe gets screenplay + one tech nom, but I doubt it’ll do much more than that. Film Disqus loves PTA a lot more than the Academy does.
Academy loves PTA but mainly only when DDL plays the lead role.
But Licorice Pizza looks like 1970s coming-of-age story so maybe they connect with it more than usual.
Anyway, PTA’s movies don’t need Academy’s love.
No0 Daniel Tan sorry mate…but your airy fairy theory is just that a theory..look at the majority of oscar winners esp narrowing it down last 7 years you tell me unequivocally with youjr utter most conviction that TWITTER AND social media socialist influences have not dominated oscar outcomes..i bet you they have and IF they did not why is it then so many non- championed big screen studio films were snubbed in favour of more societal message driven social media supported films? Once upon a time maybe you were once right..but that was over a decade ago…sorry to say..the results tell a sorry tail..you defending the indefensible and frankly, inexcusable..hope you aware of that..is it any coincidence oscar ratings have taken a nose dive since oscar went down this path?
If anything this year’s Oscars told us, it is that when it comes to voting for winners, the Academy voters will continue to vote for whomever they like most, doing “good” things that “Twitter” approves be damned. Twitter’s influence is totally overrated.
Yeah right. Nice try, lefty. How do you explain The Fate of the Furious and Transformers: Age of Extinction failing to sweep the Oscars despite being popular with audiences?
Well played!
Picture
Being the Ricardos
Belfast *
Coda
Cyrano
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Mass
Nightmare Alley
Power of the Dog
Tragedy of Macbeth
alternates: Spencer, Parallel Mothers, Don’t Look Up
Director
Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Branagh, Belfast
Campion, Power of the Dog *
Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Kranz, Mass
alternates: Almodovar, Parallel Mothers; del Toro, Nightmare Alley, Sorkin, Being the Ricardos; Wright, Cyrano
Actor
Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Cumberbatch, Power of the Dog
Dinklage, Cyrano
Smith, King Richard *
Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
alternates: Cooper, Nightmare Alley; di Caprio, Don’t Look Up; Garfield, Tick Tick Boom; Phoenix, C’mon C’mon
Actress
Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Cruz, Parallel Mothers *
Kidman, Being the Ricardos
McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Stewart, Spencer
alternates: Hudson, Respect: Comer, The Last Duel; Colman, The Lost Daughter
Supporting Actor
Reed Birney, Mass
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza *
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Jason Isaacs, Mass
JK Simmons, Being the Ricardos
alternates: Plemons and Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog; Dafoe, Nightmare Alley; Jenkins, The Humans
Supporting Actress
Dame Judi Dench, Belfast
Anne Dowd, Mass
Kirsten Dunst, Power of the Dog *
Marlee Matlin, Coda
Martha Plimpton, Mass
alternates: Blanchett and Colette, Nightmare Alley; Moreno, West Side Story; Merediz, In the Heights; Balfe, Belfast
Adapted Screenplay
The Humans
The Lost Daughter
Nightmare Alley
Power of the Dog *
The Tragedy of Macbeth
alternates: Cyrano, Passing, The Last Duel
Original Screenplay
Being the Ricardos
Belfast *
Licorice Pizza
Mass
Parallel Mothers
alternates: Spencer, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Flee, The French Dispatch
If ‘Parallel Mothers’ can do a ‘Parasite’ and get a BP nomination then that boosts Penelope Cruz’s chances to win big time especially if ‘Spencer’ somehow does not land a BP nomination?
I am pretty unsure Spencer will land that BP nomination, or BD. This really can end up with Spencer just being nominated for Actress and some technicals. I think it is peaking too early, and honestly, I really don’t see that clear, that critics circles are going to champion Stewart over Cruz.
Who else can win best actress? Lady Gaga if she knocks it out of the park? I don’t think Blanchett gets a third Oscar win so soon. Maybe Nicole Kidman gets a second if she is brilliant as Lucille Ball.
I still think – seen the trailer several times – that House of Gucci is a Razzie sweeper in the making, later trash-cult film in the same style than Showgirls.
Blanchett may win Supporting in Supporting for Nightmare Alley, but I would trust more that Colette would be the winner there, if they want to go for that film (insanely overdue).
Kidman won in Lead, and is a clear suspect to win a 2nd, specially after her excellent year in streaming with The Undoing and 9 Perfect Strangers… but I still think that the only thing preventing Cruz to be the front out frontrunner is that her performance is in Spanish. Absolutely nothing else.
It makes sense that Ridley Scott makes a great movie ‘The Last Duel’ followed by a not so great movie. his recent track record suggests that.
Blanchett will not get third Oscar before she is 60 at least. That’s usual age for that. No one had before – Hepburn, Bergman, Streep, Nicholson, McDormand – they all where at least 60 when they achieved that.
Only DDL was 55. So it could happen but stars really should be aligned for it.
Brando could easily had three before 50 – only if he won for Streetcar in 1951 – which he deserved.
Walter Brennan was 45 for Oscar #3 (1940)
Different, old times. And all his Oscars were in Supporting category. Maybe Mahershala Ali can achieve something similar today.
This was a different time. Brennan was the extras’ guy.
And Blanchett is somebody the industry respects immensely, but my hunch is that many believe she’s a bitch. The irony is that truly genius actors like Streep and Blanchett will always have a harder time winning Oscars than good but limited actors such as McDormand and Hepburn.
Of course it was a different time. But DDL was not the only one, just saying.
I think she can win before 60 but the role in NA seems like something we’ve seen from her before. But this year, everyone and their mother got “career best” reviews to the point of hilarity. For example, Jessica Chastain and Oscar Isaac’s career best work is Tammy Faye/Card Counter AND Scene From a Marriage. LOL. critics really went overboard with that kind of hyperbole for literally everyone.
Blanchett is my favorite actress working and she is respected by the Academy but I think she must deliver something REALLY GOOD to win third before 60.
This season I hope she will get nominated. Only that. The bad thing is no one knows if she is Lead or Supporting yet (and wont in the next two months) and I want that discussion to be over and she placed in right category. The good thing is that her movie had potential to be very high profile with good box-office. Maybe she’ll have the best movie among actresses this season. Not necessary but it could happen. Maybe enough for nomination.
And yeah, critics this year act like they never seen strong female performance before. Kind of amusing 🙂
Blanchett’s movie is Searchlight which means if she was Lead she would be Chastain’s internal competition. Meaning she might become their priority.
Also, there are Collette and Mara in the movie, and both looking supporting. Doubtful all 3 will be campaigned in the same category. So my guess is Lead.
Only Cate can save us from thirsty Chastain in fatface.
I hope so. Like Chastain but she has mediocre movie and box-office flop. Her campaign already seem forced.
everything about her is forced. Tammy Faye is a textbook Oscar bait of the worst order, and Scenes from a Marriage is a textbook Emmy bait. she and Oscar Isaac really believe they broke a new ground for appearing naked on HBO which built reputation for nudity and graphic sex ever since it’s inception lmao! She really thinks that the industry owes her something.
Chastain has always been entitled… I mean, she’s a good actress, but she believes she’s Meryl Streep-level good. Which she isn’t.
Ha ha, I watched some red carpet clips titled Thirsty Chastain or something like it, and she was whining about paying her dues which was an unsubtle jab at Lawrence being young and about to win what Chastain considered was her Oscar. Even though many who saw ZDT said her unrelatable blank slate character was going to be a roadblock to winning.
Blanchett won’t get a third Oscar for this. She needs a much bigger narrative and momentum for a third Oscar. Right now she has none. And she’s borderline supporting. And I expect del Toro’s film to be moody and atmospheric, which rarely works for acting Oscar wins.
I can’t help remembering what happened to Portman and Jackie… Except Jackie won best screenplay in Venice.
I get a true “Marie Claire” vibe from Spencer.
With that I mean… BLAND. Jackie deeped down into Jackie’s psyche but with Diana, there’s hardly any surprise to find, as those days are well known by the worldwide audience already, so the impact may have diminished returns, compared to what Jackie showed us, to generations that were not alive when JFK was assassinated.
That is why I feel that Cruz or Kidman will have the upper hand, specially once the critics start rewarding
Portman had Stone roadblock. Acclaimed performance, did her own singing and dancing which AMPAS always loves, Best Picture front-runner, multiple other big nominations. Stewart doesn’t have Stone of her own atm. Two movies most trotted as potential winners – TPOTD and Belfast – sent all their actresses to Supporting.
Portman also lost the Globe to Huppert, where Stone was in M/C. Is that Cruz?
Venice win isn’t that big of a precursor. it served Kirby nicely for noms but she was the only actress out of 4 that had no traction for the win. other 4 had 1 precursor win each lol. that was fun.
Portman, critic and academy darling playing a beloved historical figure, lost the Golden Globe against a French film about a woman who loves to get raped. She was dead way before the Oscars because voters didn’t love Larrain’s style, which I personally find astonishing. Same could happen to Spencer.
If I had to choose, the Oscar should’ve gone to Huppert, by the way.
To this day, I can’t understand how Portman became such a critical darling that year. I find a lot of her performance in the film outright bad.
To tell you the truth I liked her performance very much, but I was still rooting for Huppert. Stone, however, is one of the most charismatic actors nowadays so I get why she won with that film.
I was rooting for Huppert. I’m watching Verhoeven’s new film tonight (streaming it as part of a film festival) and will probably rewatch Elle afterwards.
I remember all the critics and festival crowd lining up around the block for Jackie at TIFF and that was the last glorious moment. After that, Portman, who was amazing, became a non-entity. And the same critics backed up Hupert with critics awards and then televised ones backed up Stone.
Never trust critics.
You do know that people can like more than one performance at a time, and thus can adore a performance and give awards to another performance because they also adore that other performance, right?
yes but the way they treated Jackie at the festival indicated backing up Portman and then it didn’t happen.
Another glaring non-factor was Pike in Gone Girl. There was so much buzz before the season started and then she just became an also run.
I don’t get it. Stewart is such a weak front-runner. Why can’t Dunst and Balfe go lead? Nobody can convince me that they don’t belong there. These are not supporting performances. Both have screen time and acclaim. Both have the film. And Dunst is overdue.
I think both actually have too little screentime to even win Supporting.
It’s funny. Maybe this is my reaction to the performance, but in my memory, in the first half of the film, Dunst had more screen time than Cumberbatch.
True, but in the second half she basically disappears completely.
Netflix decided that Dunst goes Supporting before Stewart became the frontrunner. And their Lead is Colman in The Lost Daughter.
No idea about Balfe’s placement but perhaps they think she can win in supporting.
I would not be shocked if Cruz won. It feels like a Cotillard shock upset kind of year
Hard to be another Parasite when nothing about your movie is. People have big blindness to Parasite’s boxoffice but that was a major factor in its success with voters. Accessible af. 200M from overseas alone (lots of foreign voters). Over 50M domestic take which is fantastic for a subtitled movie (in comparison, Jojo Rabbit made much less and that was an English speaking movie).
Parallel Mothers is not that movie. Also, Jesus Alonso will always make cases for Spanish actors. He was convinced Banderas would win over Phoenix even when all signs pointed out that Phoenix sweep.
I’d love to see Cruz win best actress. She’s a true European film star, and a win for Almodovar’s muse would be a wonderful moment. But she’ll need critics to really go for her. Big time.
What’s the rationale for dropping Dunst from supporting actress? She’s sitting at #2 on GoldDerby.
Being the Ricardos will be the movie of the year with 10 nominations minimum (with Kidman, Bardem and Sorkin as frontrunners in their categories).
Jesus Alonso and Phantom opened my eyes on it yesterday. Their judgment is not to be underestimated.
Being the Ricardos is coming !!!
someone listens to me? Lol. That’s the kiss of death to my suspictions 😉
Remember, I don’t “predict”, I analyze with the information I have. I am not the biggest fan of Chicago 7, so I don’t trust Sorkin as a director – but he’s already experienced – but him as writer is a completely different matter.
Strange. Sorkin is obviously a legendary screenwriter, but so far he directed 2 bad films. What makes you suspect the third one will be any different?
Did not see Molly’s Game but I wouldn’t call “Chicago 7” a bad film. It was somewhat disappointing and bland and caricaturesque at some points (specially with Langella’s character), but I’ve seen way worse nominated for Director or Picture
Off-topic question. Did you ever watched The Untold History of the United States (10 part documentary from 2012) by Oliver Stone ? Judging on some of your earlier posts here I think you may like it. Strongly recommended, not perfect but very good. I think it’s available online on Vimeo or DailyMotion. Check it out.
nope, didn’t watch it. But my knowledge comes from my University Career and the research done through that, and later professional experience… my point of view isn’t quite common, when analyzing and judging politics and history (I’m versed in geostrategy)
Anyway, check it out when you have time. It’s good.
Jesus is stanning Ricardos only because of Bardem lol. he only stans Spanish actors and I admit he makes really good arguments. trouble is, they never win. 🙂
But sometimes they get nominated – like Banderas in 2019. And deservedly so.
Oh, I’m aware that Jesus is always stanning – naturally – Spanish movies and actors here. And Phantom is a Kidman fan. My comment about Ricardos was supposed to be kind of sarcastic (especially if you read Jesus’ and Phantom’s comment about the movie yesterday in previous article).
But who knows – maybe they are right. AMPAS loves biopics about Hollywood legends. And they love Sorkin too.
My main problem with the movie is huge miscasting of the Bardem and Kidman. But it may work in the end.
Sorkin snub in Director was awesome. I remember when he got in with DGA and everyone was predicting the Director’s Branch snub ha ha.
Too many biopics this year in Actress – Spencer, Tammy NAY, Respect, Ricardos, am I missing something?
Blonde (with Ana de Armas) was supposed to be released this year but postponed to 2022. Netflix doesn’t like rough cut.
We really never had proper Marylin Monroe biopic. Script is really good though not sure it will be Academy’s thing. No matter what happens, Oscars or not, I ‘m really excited for this one.
I hope for a good Audrey Hepburn movie too in the future.
wasn’t Blonde deemed a porn by Netflix execs or something? And that director refused to tone it down?
Well, there’s one explicit rape scene and also dead fetuses around… Just saying 🙂
Andrew Dominic (director) said that this will be “in the Top 10 movies of all time” (or something like that). While, of course, that sound pretentious af it shows he has clear confidence in this project. And yes, he also said he won’t let Netflix to scissor his cut. So yeah…forget about Oscar nominations lol. We’ll see what happens.
so, Kidman is Spanish?
so, Bardem didn’t win?
so, Cruz didn’t win?
I don’t champion anyone… I’m sick or reading that. I do happen to be Spanish and therefore know their careers and talents, better than most people here. It was 2001 when I first stated here, Bardem was a new Brando and likely Oscar winner, and also when people started laughing at Cruz’s “Acting” that back in 1998 she was way better than any of the 5 Best Lead Actress nominees, for “La Niña de tus Ojos”, a way more challenging role than Palthrow’s.
If I was german, I would be warning about other talents, say, for example, Christoph Waltz, before Tarantino “discovered” him
… by the way, the daughter of Desi and Lucille, is enthusiastic about the film and raves Kidman and Bardem..
Banderas didn’t win. You believed in his surprise win almost to the finishing line when it was obvious Phoenix couldn’t be beaten.
those 11 nominations for Joker marked his win. But Phoenix’s performance, while extremely good, and deserving, was easier and showier. Banderas exhibited a total control of body and emotions, and timing always forced to be restrained and between the margins – really tight margins – that his character was being more than inspired by the man who wrote his lines and was directing him… Phoenix had creative freedom, Banderas didn’t (that makes Banderas’ the most challenging performance from both, and that is why I would have given it to Banderas, but Phoenix was also insanely overdue and great, so I can’t really complain)
I get that but it isn’t about who we think was better but who won. You were denying Phoenix as the winner for the longest time. That’s my point. 🙂
did I?
No. I always said that he shouldn’t win in front of Banderas, for the same reasons I just explained. But once the film scored Best Picture and 10 other nominations more, it was an almost done deal for Phoenix. But still, he had against him, some stuff, as Ledger’s Joker’s memory (arguably better and more difficult and creative)
“thinking about ten might take you to other places, like saving Hollywood from collapsing by nominating more popular movies.”
..exactly…..but will oscar foresee their own demise? unlike the sci- fi masterpiece ‘edge of tomorrow’ i just saw…there WONT be a second, third, eighth chance to learn from the LOOMING MISTAKE THAT WILL SEAL OSCARS FATE FROM BEING A PRIMARILY MAINSTREAM REFLECTIVE AWARDS CEREMONY…. ther ONE SHOT AT THIS…AND IT AWARDS SEASONS RECKONING IS COMING REMEMBER….. YEARS AND COUNTING TILL CENTENARY OF OSCAR AND I TELL YA ALL NOW….IT BE PRUDENT FOR AWARDS SEASON RECKONING AND REALISATION …AND AS WELL SCRUTINY RIGHTFULLY OUGHT FALL HEAVILY ON EVER ALARMINGLY FAR LEFTIST LEANING- DIRECTOR GUILD MORE OFTEN THAN NOT…SO ESPECIALLY IF DGA IS MOST ACCURATE INDICATOR WHAT WINS BEST PICTURE AS A PRECURSOR IT WELL PAST TIME THE DGA START ACCEPTING THE BLOWTORCH OF SCRUTINY WHICH RIGHTFULLY STAR PUT HEAT ON THEIR MORE OFTEN THAN NOT MISGUIDED DECISIONS..
I NOT convinced of Spencer being an outside…not like first ever serious, deep film looking at Princess Diana recreating setting with incredible central performance that is potent enough to make this film a contender.
The ONLY reason Power of the Dog will dominate win let be clear this year IF and it really provisional on the capacity of the traditional film studioa to counteract the netflix- streaning pro- socialite leftist twitterati mad mob lobby- it ONLY because the film indulges in amplifying at it core dominating it story by immoral virtue signaliing, confronting themes…of like we sooo desperately do not need with all the negativity and chaos of today and irrespective of supposed twist into some kind of love story as consequence of horrendous abuse it been done before…maybe not in the specific setting but it sooo tiresom..culture of guilt tripping, the putrid stench of eventual oscar winner being drenched head to toe in morality lessons of right and wrong i sorry but if ampas and the guilds want stand up for as sasha says silent majority film base it the silent majority that online twitterati socialists dominate concousness clearly of the broken dga more often than not, then they should substitute spencer in and power of the dog out
In any event,, power of the dog does not from previews and detail of plot i seen…be that ‘showy’ drama that oscar still love…even parasite 2 years ago was more ‘showy’ than this…’power of the dog’ is more in line with ‘promising young woman’ well told story but of small intimate scale…
now LOOK NOMADLAND last year was small scale scope…crash, birdman, moonlight, spotlight, to name just a few and yes parasite too …though that was at LEAST far more inventive and more cinematic achievement considerably than power of the dog, we and the dga know this if they frankly get their HEAD OUT OF THEIR SELF INDULGENT ASSES to realise they are inflicting UNTYOLD damage of awards seasons soul..
Back with ‘ Edge of tomorow’ i strongly feel that movie should been nominated for best picture..it was story unlike ANY told for original genre film…it poked it nose at the ‘redundant’ nature of hollywood yet reinvented the cycle to be something entirely new…it dramatic intensity was first rate the acting was flawless story was one most compelling for action/ war sci fi flick and i wager better achievement than half contenders in the past decade…that awards season have done..
much like ‘free guy’ this year…the ONLY reason these films not considered for oscar..is it all bout limits self imposed by awards season…not cos they not worthy of consideration for how these 2 brilliant films ..obviously edge of tomorrow being even better….than free guy…- somehow despite fictional nature of dying over and over..is not made comical…theme of dying is more serious if anything as sotry goes on…
Just ONCE i love to see more than one- sci-fi contender…the guilds , the dga, the academy have the power and ability to change their fate…they do not need to kill or be killed by their repeat mistakes over and over..they foreseen with benefit of hindsight implications for humiliating ratings decline inc before covid consequences of going on wrong path..
Maybe they should see ‘edge of tomorrow’ so they learn from that what NOT TO DO? it called DONT buy into twitter and social media arrogance…simple as that..of course awards season not rady to listen..not yet…
No chance of In the Heights to be resurrected?
Without the Globes, I’d say even less than would be otherwise.
I could see Olga Merediz sneaking in, kind of like Kathy Bates in 2019, but not much else.
Nope. WB nominee will be Ellis for King Richard.
None. WB has their hands full with Dune and King Richard.
Dune will get nominations across the board as well as king Richard, for a few acting categories
Dune won’t get in acting but Richard will. Dune will get Director though. Not sold on Richard’s director.
First!
1. I think a factor in Oscar years that doesn’t get discussed enough is when films get released to begin with. Are they rushed into screens like Clint has successfully pulled off. Are they general releases that the distributors never thought in a million years would win Oscar like Spotlight or Parasite? Is the strength of the field altered by multiple contenders going into next year. For all the bizarre whining in some circles that too many black films were nominated last year, I’d counter that the producers of said films watched multiple potential blockbusters voluntarily withdraw from the 2020 field and correctly thought that the odds were better by staying. It arguably helped Judas and the Black Messiah, and while obviously not a “black film”, the Father definitely benefitted from not being in this year’s field.
2. I’m not sure the Globes are as great a precursor for Best Picture as they used to be. No Country for Old Men missed both Globe Picture and Director for instance. Linklater’s Boyhood rolled through the Globe and basically got shut out. Three Billboards didn’t replicate their Globes nominations. They do appear to be incredibly important for the perceived Best Actress frontrunner to solidify their position via the dynamite acceptance speech.
3. Rumors are that Nightmare Alley isn’t even remotely close to being done, wouldn’t be surprised if its pulled into next year for what would look like a faceoff against George Miller.
4. I’m not 100 percent sold on the Will Smith coronation scenario. He’s not really the black Tom Hanks with a near spotless roster of beloved films. He’s made some very odd decisions in the last few years and his ersatz Scientologist schtick does rub some people the wrong way. Don’t sleep on Dinklage, the guy is BELOVED in the industry and his professionalism is legendary (and don’t discount that, a good reputation can swing a close race)
5. Honestly, if the Academy is really feeling beaten up by all the criticism of it’s previous winners this decade, then Belfast will romp. In such a nasty year where people call each other terrible names on this site and others, a nostalgia drenched film about FAMILY is one that can be rallied around. Films of this type haven’t legitimately contended let alone won for BP in forever and a day (seriously, can you think of the last true family drama where there’s no divorce or death won? Roma tried for that but
stumbled with a blurry point of view about their “family”)
6. BAFTA will be an absolute free for all with this field.
I’ll just call it early like with Sorkin last year: Branagh will miss Directing at the Oscars.
I think he’s too well positioned to miss. He’s the campaign narrative for that film so far. Although if he is snubbed, he could easily duplicate “Poor Ben Affleck” to a walkover Best Picture win.
But Branagh, unlike Sorkin, was already nominated for directing once. So…
That was ages ago though, the race has changed a lot since then. Plus, he’s still thought of primarily as a theatre person, not a film director, which always hurts in this situation.
I have the feeling King Richard will follow Ma Rainey’s steps… acting and technical noms.
And I can’t see Scott putting both of his films for a Best picture nomination.
I do believe, however, in PTA rising at the end.
And an international film in director and/or screenplay, as usual.
I wanted to like the PTA trailer more than I did. It was like Dazed and Confused minus the energy.
I think this could be the closer PTA will ever be to Altman, to tell you the truth.
That should have been Magnolia
Yes. Except it wasn’t.