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Ryan, Clarence, Mark and I had a chat about Dune, and about the Oscar race at hand. We also take questions from readers on various topics like unexpected acting nominees and the lone director slot. Have a listen.
Heavy “yes, please” on the Zoom-for-AD-only project…
Here’s my incomplete BP field guesses, in an ideal world
*Mainstream (critics and fans heart them)*
Dune
No Time to Die
In the Heights
Can’t put together 5 blockbusters and Rotten Tomatoes favorites; not this year, anyway. Shang-Chi? Black Widow? F9? 😀 :D. Not a one. In the bullpen: Matrix: Resurrections? Spiderman: No Way Home?
*Arthouse*
Belfast
Mass
CODA
The Power of the Dog
House of Gucci
Thing is with 3 films listed as AD’s favorites in BP (King Richard, Cyrano, Respect), they’re likely propelled by individual performances; Will Smith, Peter Dinklage, Jennifer Hudson rather than film of the year.
The others? Spencer? Possibility. West Side Story has the albatross that is l’affair Anson Elgort. French Dispatch? Seems like another PTA acid trip. Licorice Pizza? No. Nightmare Alley? I’m trying to avoid thinking a single thought about Tragedy of Macbeth. Can’t even imagine ratings cratering even more if McDormand gets nominated again and WINS again. Doomsday scenario.
Just as Emily in Paris’ WTF comedy/musical series nod pretty much KO’d the Golden Globes on top of all their epochal baggage behind the scenes, another McDormand film laying waste to the 2021 Oscar field just might finally drive ABC to buy out the remaining 6 years of their TV deal with the Academy and send the 2022 ceremony to Netflix, cutting their losses.
Animated Film:
Boss Baby: Family Business
Luca
Raya and the Last Dragon
Mitchells v. Machines
Ron’s Gone Wrong (??)
Reluctant to put Space Jam 2 or The Croods 2 in there. Flee might be better placed in Documentary Feature.
What exactly is the difference between In the Heights and House of Gucci from a studio point of view? And why is In the Heights a mainstream success in your opinion if the general understanding is that movie made no money?
The difference, I suppose, is that he liked the film. When someone likes a film, he will say it’s going to save the Oscars from doomsday, even if it’s a box office disaster. When someone hates a film, he will say it shall ruin the Oscars, even if it’s a box office success. People make up all kinds of excuses and shift all kinds of goalposts to enable their own agenda.
Instead of trying not to think a single thought about The Tragedy of Macbeth, you could just, you know, see it? It’s an exquisite film, and should land on the BP shortlist in any fair universe.
Boss Baby 2 won’t be getting in after the whole Alec Baldwin controversy (plus, lots of people cried foul when the first movie got nominated). Most likely they put in a token foreign animated film from GKIDS.
I know BP is all about the 10, but a mainstream combo of Dune, No Time to Die and In the Heights would go a long way to offering an olive branch to ex-Oscar viewers who have been driven away by the choices of the Academy for most of the decade that only indie spirits-esque films matter. It’s all about *balance* between the arthouse and the popular among critics and fans. As it has always been with me.
In what world is In the Heights a popular choice ?
I understand, but I think this and not West Side Story will be the default musical BP nominee slot. Just a feeling. One of the rare times this year a big budget movie earned its b.o. keep here and not globally.
I truly don’t understand why you’re so focused on domestic box office as opposed to global. The film market is pretty much a global market, especially Hollywood.
I agree. Especially since the domestic share of the global box office keeps falling over the years. I believe it’s between 15-30% of global totals. Film studios are not going to survive or be “saved” just focusing on the domestic box office, since there is so much focus on “saving” Hollywood and the Oscars here on AD. Hollywood is doomed if it focuses only on domestic b.o.
Are those the only 2 kinds of films in the spectrum: popular or arthouse? Are The Shape of Water, Green Book and Parasite popular or arthouse films?
The Shape of Water made $200M, Green Book $330M, Parasite $260M. How many viewers did they drive away given their Indie Spirit Awards credentials?
How much are In the Heights and The Last Duel expected to make to qualify them as “popular” films so that they are capable of “offering an Olive branch to ex-Oscar viewers”?
Not being snarky, I’m genuinely keen to understand the logic of the theory. Because I can’t stop hearing it.
Domestic:
TSOW $64m
Green Book $85m
Parasite $53m.
I consider Fox Searchlight and Neon clearly, indisputably niche studios. Universal, of course, isn’t. Domestically, 2 of the 3 were mild boxoffice successes in America. They earned most of their coin offshore.
I suppose the US box office is ALL that matters when defining what “popular” means.
So why is In the Heights an olive branch which will bring back Oscar viewers driven away by “unpopular” films? And are you one of those people who put The Last Duel in the same category of “popular” films that will save the Oscars?
It’s so REDUCTIVE to categorize films this way.
I am of the school of thought the Last Duel was dumped onto the marketplace. With that much acting firepower, it should’ve done a lot better than $10m so far.
There is a whole host of reasons why films thrive or flop at the box office.
That’s not the same as saying a box office flop is going to bring back audiences and save the Oscars from doomsday. Just because you think it “should” be a hit doesn’t make it so. The movie that can’t save itself will save the Oscars?
I think when the insipid and tiresome “culture wars” came to dominate some of the discussions around here this bizarre popular v arthouse construct got erected with the odious framework that not only could one ONLY enjoy one or the other, but that “Real America” somehow got personally insulted when an arthouse film was championed by critics and awards organizations. Isn’t that insulting as all getup arguing that geographical locale makes one incapable of appreciating a Fellini or Kurosawa if one so chooses. What a patronizing attitude that is.
Grooving or changing the Oscars under the assumption that some viewers will come back will only water the prestige of the award further. Hell, you could award 11 Oscars to a film called “Mel Gibson and Clint Eastwood kill all the (insert racial slur here)” and the so-called “real Americans” wouldn’t tune in.
I agree. The idea of a “REAL AMERICA” the Oscars should focus on bringing back makes me laugh. America prides itself for its cultural diversity but somehow some Americans are more “real” than others. Who are these more “real” than real Americans?
It’s also like saying in order to bring back Republican audiences, let’s not nominate any films starring Sean Penn, Robert De Niro, Jane Fonda, Whoopi Goldberg, Meryl Streep, Oprah Winfrey and George Clooney. Because Republicans DESPISE them. It’s so stoopid it defies explanation.
“Are those the only 2 kinds of films in the spectrum: popular or arthouse? Are The Shape of Water, Green Book and Parasite popular or arthouse films?”
Right now, it’s pretty much mainstream v. arthouse. in the U.S., TSOW and Parasite were clearly arthouse films.
Dirty is good! A very pleasant podcast. I agree with every word said about Dune. I’m also down for Mass getting into SAG Ensemble and maybe, maybe Oscar BP. Looking foward to your next podcast, guys.