Actors dominate the Oscars. They don’t dominate the Golden Globes, the Producers Guild, or the Directors Guild. They only sort of dominate the SAG awards since the group merged with AFTRA. They do have the largest voting bloc in the Academy by almost double the other branches. That means the Best Picture race often revolves around films that are actor-driven, give or take a visual effects spectacle.
Actors are the reason performance capture-driven films have been kept out of the big wins and acting categories. They are the reason no animated film has won Best Picture, and maybe why no documentary ever has, either. Actors rule, and not only do they rule, but they like to work. They like an industry that still supports them.
In general, they like movies with lots of actors compared with movies that have fewer actors. 12 Years a Slave beat Gravity, Moonlight beat La La Land. One of the exceptions to the ensemble-driven winner would be Million Dollar Baby in 2004, where the film revolved around the three main characters. One could also argue that Green Book had a relatively small ensemble.
Let’s take a look back at previous winners:
2020: Nomadland — had no competition, a smaller ensemble than usual
2019: Parasite — purely ensemble-driven
2018: Green Book — small ensemble but still actor-driven
2017: The Shape of Water — ensemble-driven.
2016: Moonlight — ensemble-driven
2015: Spotlight — ensemble-driven
2014: Birdman — ensemble-driven
2013: 12 Years a Slave — ensemble-driven
2012: Argo — ensemble-driven
2011: The Artist — ensemble-driven
2010: The King’s Speech — ensemble-driven
2009: The Hurt Locker — ensemble-driven
2008: Slumdog Millionaire — ensemble-driven
2007: No Country for Old Men — ensemble-driven
2006: The Departed — ensemble-driven
2005: Crash — ensemble-driven
2004: Million Dollar Baby — a smaller ensemble, but actor-driven
2003: ROTK — ensemble-driven
2002: Chicago — ensemble-driven
2001: A Beautiful Mind — less ensemble but still performance-driven
2000: Gladiator — ensemble-driven
You can keep going backward in time and find films that are driven by actors and especially ensembles. One of the things about Oscar coverage is that most of the people (though not all) who cover it don’t really understand actors. To really get the Oscars, it’s often necessary to understand actors. I have a slight advantage in this category because I came from acting, way back when the dinosaurs roamed the earth. It is something that people who have been actors understand. Critics, for instance, tend to like performances where the actor doesn’t do anything. They like less the bravura acting performances that the SAG and Academy voters appreciate. If someone gains 30 pounds for a role, they are less likely to hit the critics awards, whereas someone who is opaque and interesting on screen — maybe even says next to nothing — is often the kind of naturalized performance they prefer. There are always exceptions, of course.
It is sometimes hard to know how the actors are going to vote. A bad movie with great acting can often land in the Best Picture race and even in some of the acting categories. This is especially true if the ensemble is packed with highly-admired industry vets. It’s preferable if the film is good, but there have been movies like Vice or American Hustle that weren’t great (and even loathed in some cases) but because the acting was good — and more importantly, the ensemble was popular and well-liked — the film is dragged along with many of the lead nominations.
The key is that you can’t always trust the Oscar bloggers or critics to know what actors will respond to and what they won’t. It is not an easy thing to predict. There are no hard and fast rules.
But from what I’ve seen so far, these are the ensembles that have stood out to me in terms of their acting. Note: House of Gucci is embargoed at the moment — I have seen it, but I have to leave that out for the moment, although it’s obvious from the outset that it’s a star-based ensemble including Al Pacino and Jeremy Irons.
So let’s go through them, shall we?
- Belfast — It should go without saying that this film is the frontrunner not just because it is universally beloved. It keeps winning audience awards and because of that it has a very good chance of winning the whole thing. It is an easy call for a SAG ensemble nomination, even more so than almost any other performance in the film. The performances work together effortlessly, which is not surprising, given that Kenneth Branagh is himself an actor who has been working as an actor and director for what, 30 years? Actor-directors can be trusted to, at the very least, draw out their actors and get the finest performances from them. It’s the one thing actors-turned-directors can do really well, even more so than any other element of filmmaking. They usually don’t have the eye of the best directors, and they usually aren’t the best writers. But what they can do really really well is guide their actors to their best work.
Here we have an ensemble led by Jamie Dornan, Caitriona Balfe, Judi Dench, and Ciarán Hinds, with a strong performance by Jude Hill as the young Buddy. A great movie with a great ensemble will make you feel invested in the characters, and involved every time we move through the various scenes. In Belfast, we watch young Buddy interact with his parents, his grandparents, his schoolmates, and even the neighborhood kids. There isn’t a minute of downtime. It is always engaging throughout.
- The Power of the Dog — Jane Campion is a visual director but also one who works very well with actors. This has always been true throughout her career and it’s especially true with her best film, The Power of the Dog. Driven by the extraordinary Benedict Cumberbatch, this ensemble has to know the source material. And actors don’t always. They can sometimes fake it and do a decent job, but it’s clear here that every actor she’s chosen knows exactly what kind of movie this is supposed to be. They are absolutely in it: the time period, the mood, the tension, the subtext. Kirsten Dunst, Kodi Smit-McPhee, and Jesse Plemons have the somewhat challenging material well in hand. Dunst is particularly good at presenting herself at a specific time and place, rather than modern-day. The film relies on its unpredictability — every choice the actors make is surprising.
- In the Heights — Musicals are well-suited to an ensemble, needless to say. It’s true on stage and it’s true on film — they are designed around actors. Here, they’re singing and dancing and acting. A great ensemble won’t necessarily feature any performance that drains the life from the rest of the ensemble. Instead, every performance works in harmony with the other performances. You can tell it’s good since, as with Belfast, you are never bored moving through the scene and character shifts because they’re all good. Here we have Anthony Ramos and Vanessa Barrera, Olga Merediz, and Leslie Grace. They are naturally unified in telling this story of a time and a place and a people.
- The Last Duel — Truly some of the best acting I’ve seen this year is in this film, anchored by a great turn by Jodie Comer who, like the rest of the cast, must play various versions of the story. They all do this really well, particularly the three main characters: Comer, Matt Damon, and Adam Driver. Ben Affleck is mostly the same kind of character in each of the three versions of the story. The Last Duel really has it all in terms of a traditional Oscar contender — it’s epic and actor/ensemble driven. Matt Damon is particularly good as Comer’s husband because we’re able to see his version of his own behavior and then see him through her eyes — he just nails it. That he played this character the same year as he played the red stater in Stillwater is all the more remarkable in terms of his range as an actor. This is also true for Ben Affleck, who plays two completely different characters in The Tender Bar and The Last Duel, and of course, Adam Driver, who’s featured in both The Last Duel and House of Gucci. But really, the whole film rests on Comer’s shoulders and she holds it together brilliantly.
- Cyrano — And speaking of musicals, Haley Bennett and Peter Dinklage lead a cast of actors who took the isolation of COVID to make a musical wherein they must all keep the delusion afloat that there are two men competing for the affections of one woman. There is not a weak link in the bunch. Joe Wright is another who can direct actors really well. Though the film revolves around Dinklage and Bennett, Kelvin Harrison, Jr., is also good as the pretty boy who isn’t articulate. Acting in musicals isn’t easy because you have to sing-act, but they all do a really wonderful job with the melancholic nature of the story.
- CODA — This is an unusual ensemble in that some of the actors are actually deaf (Daniel Durant, Marlee Matlin, and the absolutely amazing Troy Kotsur as Ruby’s dad), while the lead, Emilia Jones, is not deaf. Needless to say, conveying emotion as a deaf person is very different without the aid of voice. Yet these actors are so good at bringing us into their reality and showing us how it must feel to live in a hearing world, especially when your daughter can sing so beautifully (even writing this is bringing tears to my eyes — I hate myself). It’s really one of the best films of the year and much of that is due to, quite simply, the astonishing work of these actors. If SAG is paying close enough attention, they will notice this ensemble.
- Mass — You probably won’t find a stronger ensemble in the whole season than Mass. Four actors in one room simply acting out the story puts all of the power of the film on their shoulders. This is one of those movies that showcases what acting is all about. There is never a second in this movie that you see the actors and not the characters — you are 100% with them from minute one. Martha Plimpton and Ann Dowd are particularly good as two mothers on opposing sides of a gun tragedy.
- The Tragedy of Macbeth — Of course, it’s Shakespeare: only the greatest of actors can tackle this material well, and that is why Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand were cast in their (in)famous roles. It is challenging work and the film is, to an extent, less about the acting and more about the directing and cinematography, but Shakespeare is Shakespeare and a dream for any actor. Though an adept ensemble, it isn’t exactly populated with big names, save for the two main stars. Still, it fits the standard definition of “ensemble.”
- Respect — Unfortunately getting lost in the early phase of the Oscar race is the story of Aretha Franklin’s rise to stardom. Led by the magnificent Jennifer Hudson, but with help from Forest Whitaker, Mark Maron, Audra McDonald, Tituss Burgess, Kimberly Scott, and Mary J. Blige, this is an ensemble to die for. The movie would not work without the central role of Hudson, who knocks it out of the park both with acting and singing, but as usual Whitaker is great, and McDonald is another standout. Here’s hoping the film is remembered when it comes time to vote. The strength of the buzz for Hudson will at least get people to watch the movie.
- The Lost Daughter — speaking of actors, Maggie Gyllenhaal’s directorial debut is a film with a lot of actors and a well-acted ensemble that is anchored by the hilariously prickly Olivia Colman. Dakota Johnson and Ed Harris are strong supporting players, as is Jessie Buckley, who plays Colman’s younger self, not to mention Peter Sarsgaard, who plays her professor boyfriend. This is a film that is really about the internal life of its main character and what she sees, rather than a deep dive into the other characters. Gyllenhaal has clearly spent the time with each of the actors to nail down their histories and intentions. Being a great director is not as easy as some would probably like to believe, but if you are an actor, you have a head start as long as you can focus on the performances. She most definitely does that in this film.
- Honorable mention: Dune — It’s a big ensemble tasked with somewhat opaque and challenging material that isn’t so much about actors acting as it is about actors placing themselves inside this strange world. But given that there are so many big-name actors in the film from Timothée Chalamet to Rebecca Furguson, to Jason Mamoa and Josh Brolin and Javier Bardem, it seems like it’s a strong contender (potentially) for SAG ensemble. They aren’t exactly chewing up the scenery here, but their notoriety keeps this film in play.
The reason I don’t have King Richard down is that it is less of an ensemble and more of a film with two main characters. It won’t hurt its Best Picture chances not to be considered an ensemble — it will possibly still get in at SAG just based on the strength of Will Smith’s performance and obviously it’s a slam dunk for a Best Picture nomination, but it’s not a movie I would call filled with and driven by an acting ensemble. Spencer is also not quite an ensemble film, though it does have some good supporting players, like Sally Hawkins.
I expect the remaining films will also rely on strong ensembles:
West Side Story
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
House of Gucci
A SAG ensemble lineup could go any which way. They are always surprising. Right now, I’d probably go with our top three to start:
Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
And that leaves two wild card slots that could honestly go any which way. It is really hard to tell at the moment without seeing everything and then deciding. But any of the above-mentioned films could take them, and it would not be surprising.
Tragedy of Macbeth is just two actors, right? I saw no one in the credits outside of McDormand and Washington I noticed.
Ideally, they would just vote for the best ensemble so something impressive like MASS or Coda would get in over a film that doesn’t deserve to be there but is a BP front runner.
Some personal favorite ensembles of the year so far (not ranked by preference):
The Woman Who Ran
Red Post on Escher Street
The Green Knight
Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy
Pig
Introduction
The French Dispatch
Nice to see respect for The Green Knight. It seems to be among the ones that got away this awards year. It’s at 89% on RT (though at only 50% with the Audience, which clearly didn’t know how to hang in with its hallucinatory visuals and non-linear storytelling). I hope down the road it will be rediscovered.
Though I now see where Sasha has it in her 5 predicted Oscars for Special Effects. Maybe there’s hope yet!
oh god no. french dispatch should get a razzie for worst ensemble. To squeeze in that many characters for no purpose is overkill. Putting Henry Winkler or Christophe Waltz or Griffin Dunne or Elizabeth Moss with virtually no screen time is basically a contest of how many actors can I squeeze in this movie. It was just one embarrassing facet of a disappointing movement.
This is how I’m seeing the SAG ensemble of the year so far:
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
Being the Ricardos
Other contenders include:
Mass – Really skeptical about the chances of this since it couldn’t even get Ann Dowd at the Gothams. But the four actors all deserve recognition. No waste.
The West Side Story (or any Musical this year except Dear Evan Hansen) – A musical film this big always gets a SAG ensemble nod.
Don’t Look Up/House of Gucci – Just by cast names factor alone. Depends if the films are any good.
The trailer just dropped today for SWAN SONG and it looks INCREDIBLE! Mahershala Ali, Naomie Harris, Glenn Close. Stoked to see it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxftqrrlSqc
Despite all the talk of “crowdpleaser,” I have a hard time imagining Belfast making much money.
I get that this was a personal thing for Branagh, but if they wanted broad appeal they shouldn’t have shot in black and white.
For those that do see it, I’m sure it’ll have broad appeal, but B&W guarantees a sum under 10 mil given the mid-COVID marketplace. Likely a sub 30-mil grosser pre-COVID.
I’ve grown weary and tired of letting the awards race tell me what I want to see in the Fall. If it weren’t for the awards buzz I’d have no interest in it, therefore I won’t be watching it.
I agree, and next we have to get directors to stop putting all that writing on the bottom of the screen. That makes me sooo mad when they do that!
Pe0ple pr0bably said that ab0ut R0cky !
Rocky is a sports movie. Belfast is a family dramedy that isn’t made for kids, set in Ireland in the 50s. It’s not making money. I’ll happily eat my words though if it does
That was in 1976, times are different now
A movie that wins audience awards is a crowd pleaser. Good Night and Good Luck had 54 million box office. The best Irish movies have 60 million or more at the box office. Belfast has enthusiastic interest from the Irish diaspora on both sides of the Atlantic. Jamie Dornan and . Caitriona Balfe have enthusiastic fan bases. Outlander is an international hit. Toronto audience award winners perform well at the box office and at awards. Jojo Rabbit hit 90 million
Of those you mentioned, you can scratch 4,7,9,10, and 11 off the list. Not happening. The only one I haven’t seen is Cyrano, but based on what I have heard, it seems possible.
I would probably add The French Dispatch as well, if we’re talking SAG ensemble.
I am sorry, but as usual, extremely anglo-centric analysis. It’s 2021. 2 years ago, a foreign language film DID win Best Picture AND SAG Ensemble. There are several non-english speaking films that could surprise, once critics start positioning names and titles in the race (and yes, sorry, but Parallel Mothers has one hell of an ensemble work, it is not just Cruz). I would possibly consider Sorrentino’s The Hand of God as well… Sorrentino’s ensembles are magnificent (both on cinema and TV)
Reality is, that there’s a tendency to overlook any non-english speaking ensemble, and therefore I’d say that Belfast is, right now the easy pick for SAG Ensemble winner… but I just can’t discard any ensemble film or with strong supporting cast, whereever is coming from. Waiting for the reaction to House of Gucci – which could easily be the frontrunner, if raved – I’d go with Belfast but that one aside, I don’t think there’s anything close to be a safe bet (maybe Mass? Coda?)
1. I think years from now Parasite will be considered one of the greatest films of the early 21st century, specifically because of an utterly flawless casting. American filmmakers would cut off limbs to have a main cast THAT dialed in like the Parasite crew was.
2. Broken record, but Belfast is the right film at the right time. Tight ensemble acting, auteur on a comeback, and very likely the film BAFTA will rally behind. It’s the first prestige family saga in forever and will have very few vocal detractors. I sent the trailer to my mom who said “that’s a film I want to see in a theater”, and I don’t think she’s the only one who feels that way. It feels like the Green Book in a Green Book year.
3. If King Richard is seen as a two hander, that’s kind of a problem given the first time director and not much opportunities for below the line nominations. Not sure Will Smith is the Tom Hanks type that Oscar wants to reward.
4. Speaking of Hanks, is Finch going to jam in an eligibility run or be Apple+ only, because that’s a GOOD trailer and Hanks looks more engaged than he has in a few year.
5. Last Duel isn’t happening, and it wouldn’t shock me if Damon campaigns for Stillwater instead.
6. Don’t sleep on Penelope Cruz, Olivia Colman, Richard Jenkins, or Dinklage. Impeccable reputations in the industry.
I thought Matt Damon was very good in Stillwater and borderline embarrassing in The Last Duel.
Glad Cyrano got a mention here, I’m rooting for Dinklage.
However, yet again, Being the Ricardos is left off the list of ensemble films—which is confusing because it’s the definition of ensemble. You have 3 Oscar winners coming for nominations, as well as a tony nominee and multiple Emmy winner following suit. I don’t understand how this is being so over looked?!?!
Also, there is almost always a foreign language film that breaks through in at least one if not more of the top categories—so y’all may want to check and see what foreign language films are being buzzed about and respond accordingly—methinks Parallel Mother’s is the ticket, disregard at your own risk.
The late-breaking films feel like too-late at this stage of the game. If any of them land big, trust that the predictions will change.
Parallel Mothers is not a late-breaker. Reviews are in, since Venice Film Festival and plenty of critics have seen it already (that’s why Cruz is so high on the ranks almost everywhere, the performance has been said to be a career best – I’ve seen it: it probably is). On PM, as with almost every Foreign Language Oscar contender not titled Parasite, the ranks tend to be on the “alternate” because for every “Amour” there’s an “Amelie” or “Volver” or “Pain & Glory” that doesn’t make it to the big ones or just scores some acting / screenplay / director / technicals noms and they leave it at that. Let’s remember that Pan’s Labyrinth scored 3 wins and some more technical noms, but did NOT score Picture, Director, Acting (bad campaign focusing on Ivana Baquero’s longshot status for Best Actress and ignored the obvious chances of the electric performances by Maribel Verdú and Sergi López for Supporting, both of them should have won, that year). PM is now a relatively safe bet for a Lead Actress nomination and Cruz can actually win it (even if she’s not the frontrunner at this point), but sits on the “alternate” status (comfortably) for Picture, Director, Original Screnplay, Cinematography, Score and Film Editing, waiting to see what the critics precursors say…
Other films like Anette, The Hand of God, have been already seen and aren’t that much buzzed… it seems that PM’s main competitors will be A Hero and The Worst Person in the World, maybe Flee (but that may suffer from the discrimination that happened with two masterpieces like Waltz with Bashir and Collective, and relegated to Doc & or Foreign/Animated nominations and then leaving emptyhanded)
I think Penelope Cruz could win NYFCC if the reception to Parallel Mothers at NYFF was to be considered. She could also very well win LAFCA, another highbrow and top-tier critic precursor.
I don’t think so. There is still time to build momentum—especially since there are few locks in any of the categories.
Sasha has been heavy on House of Gucci and I know from her instagram, that she already saw it… waiting to see her reaction and how it will affect her ranking of its candidates… probably there’s an embargo?
*Updated* She has updated her predictions (Nov 4th) on GoldDerby and HoG is nowhere to be seen in Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and any acting category, with the exception of Lady Gaga who is #5 and therefore the weaker candidate of her predicted quintet. She retains The Last Duel and Comer for Actress, so it seems that she thinks that The Last Duel is this year’s Scott’s winning horse.
Poke your head into House of Gucci thread on Gold Derby and you’ll find out what third party says that Sasha and some other critics think of HoG. Look for screencaps from AW.
The British Independent Film Awards are always worth paying attention to. It was there in February that Anthony Hopkins picked up his first Best Actor prize for The Father. It was was where Rene Zellweger picked up her first Best Actress prize for Judy in 2019 and Olivia Colman for The Favourite in 2018. All went on to win the Oscar.
Their 2021 nominations appeared on Wednesday and though Belfast has 11, it isn’t nominated for Best Film, Director or Screenplay. Does this indicate it may not be the early favourite many assume?
I personally don’t think the first award someone wins for a movie is a particularly relevant one just because of its earliness, no one really pays that much attention to BIFA and as a result I’d imagine the other awards these people might win are probably pretty much indpenedent of the BIFA results.
Also, the arguments I could see for this being an issue for Belfast is that a) it would showcase that other nominated movies are being considered higher priorities (which is obviously not the case, unless you want to for example believe that Joanna Hogg could get an incredibly deserved Oscar win) or b) this would showcase how people are actively voting against Belfast (“I’ll vote for anything else than Belfast”), and there is pretty much no proof of that here (especially since they were willing to nominate it in 11 categories, which tied for most nominations with Boiling Point if I recall correctly). Instead the likely third option in my opinion is simply that the group of voters and their focuses are different from the Academy (especially if they emphasize “independent” as these types of awards sometimes do)
Serious movie lovers pay attention to the BIFA.
In that case you must agree that awards voters are not serious movie lovers, because they surely don’t.
Movie awards nerds pay attention to BIFA. Serious movie lovers and movie awards nerds are overlapping groups (I’d for example consider myself to be both) but I know several people whose knowledge of cinema is immense and whose passion for cinema is probably even larger but who don’t really pay attention to any awards groups beyond maybe the few largest European festivals (Cannes, Berlin, Venice) and the Oscars.
I found it bizarre that the reporting of the noms did not point out BIFA Belfast snubs in picture, director, screenplay and actor.
It might not have an impact on AMPAS but why not mention it at all?