If you remember nothing else, remember this: the Oscar race is fluid, not static. That means you think you have the race mostly figured out but movies and performances can still make landfall and end the dinosaurs. One such movie is Aaron Sorkin’s Being the Ricardos. Coming in with very low expectations is really the best way to see a movie and such was the case with this film. It had simply flown under the radar and was barely a consideration. Add to that, mild tornados on Twitter that threatened to derail the film before anyone had seen it. Add to that, Sorkin’s directorial efforts have not been quite the grade A people might have expected. But, though no one could have predicted it, he has made his best film to date.
It’s always a little disorienting when a movie comes out of nowhere and is better than expected, or sometimes worse than expected. It exists as a reminder that we don’t make the race, we chase the race. At our best, that is what we do.
Being the Ricardos seems likely to shake up the major categories and even some of the tech categories. While many who predict the Oscars have been holding a place for West Side Story and Nightmare Alley, they weren’t for Being the Ricardos, not even a little bit. But after two smash hit back-to-back screenings (with talent present) it seems that, at least for now, this film is going to be a major Oscar player.
It has the right ingredients to drive a strong contender, namely, it’s driven by bravura performances, a tightly written screenplay, and lean directing. It reminds me a bit of movies like Quiz Show – handsomely mounted adult fare, of the kind we just don’t see that much anymore. I’m not really allowed to write an actual review, so I’ll stick to “awards analysis.”
Nicole Kidman joins the already way-too-crowded Oscar race with a role that seems to have been written for her. How can that be? I don’t know, it just is. Kidman’s work is so consistently good that it’s hard to imagine she’d hit one of her best with this, but indeed she has. Remembering the Oscar race is fluid and not static helps to make room for the end of the year performances, like Kidman’s and her co-star Javier Bardem, not to mention the supporting actors, JK Simmons, Nina Arianda, and Alia Shawkat. But the entire ensemble seems like it’s aimed squarely for the SAG ensemble nod.
I think it’s not outside the realm of possibility that this film could land in Best Picture, due to the strong performances of the film’s two leads and the strength of the screenplay. That’s before you even get to the part about it being a movie about actors and you know how actors love movies about actors. But it’s also about writers. And producers. And the studio system and television and in its own way, about creative expression.
I’m getting into review territory, so let’s pivot back to “awards analysis.”
Looking at Best Actress it could look something like:
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
With the alts being Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of Macbeth, Lady Gaga in House of Gucci, Jodie Comer in The Last Duel.
Best Actor is also likely to look something like:
Will Smith, King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
The other categories that this film will likely disrupt includes:
Supporting Actor – JK Simmons
Supporting Actress – Nina Arianda, Alia Shawkat
Original Screenplay – Aaron Sorkin
Costumes
Production Design
Best Director is a maybe at the moment, considering it’s such an incredibly packed category. Right now, the three locks appear to be:
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
But Sorkin is surely on the list, as it seems likely Being the Ricardos is headed for WGA, PGA and SAG ensemble nominations. If it lands there and in Best Picture at the Oscars, it seems like a strong contender for Director, so Sorkin could be looking at, and well deserving of, his nomination there.
The film is best seen with a packed house because there is nothing — and I mean nothing — like sharing emotions, especially laughter, with your fellow humans.
Reviews are embargoed until December, so for now it will have to land in this context, as “analysis.” And that means I can’t praise just how brilliant Kidman is, or how astonishingly talented Aaron Sorkin is, or how unexpectedly perfect Javier Bardem is. I can’t write about the film’s title, which holds the key to the whole film — I’ll just have to say, for now, that it’s a film not to miss.
Kristen Stewart as Best Actress? Really? When such a fair to middlin’ actress lands in that category, it cheapens the category and everyone in it.
I got an investors pass tm to see House of Gucci I’m excited to see Gaga chew the scenery but I’m apprehensive because of its mixed reception. & also I had a feeling Being the Ricardos was gonna crash the party in a big way. Nicole Kidman is gonna be pushing someone out forsure. Thoughts on Gucci tm.
I have become a big fan of Nina Arianda. Her performance in ‘Stan & Ollie’ was sublime and she was good in ‘Richard Jewell’ and ‘Florence Foster Jenkins’. I hope that ‘Being The Ricardos’ is her award breakthrough. She has been one to watch for a while. Very versatile actor.
Nina Arianda is one of America’s greatest actresses, hands down. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a1480cfa271363982dec5b2d730a67d5e0d2d437be07b77d3bdce04f5e32eaf8.gif
good to see another fan 🙂
Oh cool, I didn’t know that’s who Nina Arianda is! I love Billions.
She’s just so good. Agree with like every word you say here Dave :))
thanks Stergios 🙂
Not to mention, she played one of my favorite bit/cameo “30 Rock” characters, named Pizzarina Sbarro!
I thought she was amazing in Stan & Ollie too! I had forgotten she was also in Richard Jewell and Florence Foster Jenkins… And didn’t know she was in this, either – looking forward to seeing Being the Ricardos even more, now that I know.
…and in 2022 THIS film may finally see Baz Luhrmann get his breakthrough Oscar win wow guys has really been that long if ever there been authentic genuine effort at Elvis Presley ( the king still is by far) biopic like what Luhrmann will do ? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6722cd937fd80a4097cb3ddd74475606ba23351661121a214a0b98236f13787b.jpg
Just throwing this out there, but the hostility the Academy has shown towards streamers in general and Netflix in general makes me very leery about declaring this the new frontrunner. If Sorkin couldn’t pull it off last year with a check all the boxes of Academy-safe agitprop, why is this year going to be different?
Oh I don’t think Being the Ricardos is the new frontrunner nor do I expect it to ever become the frontrunner. I think it will most likely get a filler BP nod and also nominations in lead actress, original screenplay, costumes and production design, with Kidman having the best shot at actually winning.
It would need proper rave reviews (81+ MC) to be considered for more (director, multiple acting nominations, editing, cinematography, score etc.). And even if it pulled off all of those, I would be still shocked if it ended up being higher than #4-5 in BP / BD.
I not sure you can put film of one of most iconic characters and generation defining sitcoms of all time as just a mere ‘ filler’ contender how could anyone do so ?
It would need a BD nod NOT to be a filler in BP and with Sorkin already looking very good at one (original screenplay) or even two (best picture) nominations, the Academy may not feel the urge to give him a third this season.
Great as most of the reactions are, I still think this falls in the 66-74 range. Just a feeling. And those numbers are perfectly fine.
Similar vibe here, I was thinking 71-76 MC. We will see on the 7th what’s up.
Based on the reviews from the industry screenings, I think the four acting categories is within reach IF they will also make the cut in their respective categories at SAG.
It also pushes Kidman from hanging on the fringe to a legitimate contender to Stewart. Not yet going to call the former a frontrunner just yet but the latter has already built her momentum early on.
Offtopic a little bit , but a month from Thursday, the Hugo Awards will be handed out. Here are the nominees for their movie trophy (Best Dramatic Presentation, Long Form):
Birds of Prey & the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn (WB)
Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix)
The Old Guard (Netflix)
Palm Springs (Neon)
Soul (Pixar/Walt Disney Pictures)
Tenet (WB)
Who’s worthiest of sci-fi/fantasy’s highest honor?
I’m finding very little in common on this slate of films, quite confusing indeed.
I think of those the only ones I notably like are Birds of Prey and The Old Guard (although Dan Stevens should have been Oscar nominated for Eurovision). I feel like they could have had considerably more inspired nominees from 2020 (presuming that’s the eligibility period) if they would have gone more indie (or non-American, not sure about eligibility rules here): World of Tomorrow Episode 3: The Absent Destinations of David Prime and Ham on Rye are among my top 10 for that year, and I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Zombi Child, Bacurau, Ghost Town Anthology, La Llorona and About Endlessness (if Eurovision counts, the scene that’s on the poster for this should make the movie eligible as well) would have exceptional nominees as well
Bacurau (which would win easily for me if it was in there) seems like a stretch as sci-fi/fantasy, though, no? (I mean, once all is explained, by the end.) I guess some of the technology they use is yet to actually be invented/perfected, as of 2021? I don’t remember exactly.
(Or I guess as of 2019, since that’s the year it came out.)
I was kind of approaching it more through genre by horror/thriller/action vibes but I guess you’re correct
It definitely gives off those vibes… 🙂
I haven’t seen Birds of Prey or The Old Guard (funnily enough, the two Ferdinand said he likes the most) but of the other four I would say Palm Springs just edges it for me. Didn’t like Soul that much. I did like Tenet but not as much as other Nolans, of course. Eurovision is the most fun movie in there, but artistically it’s probably not that great.
Why is Denzel Washington considered a lock for a nomination but not Frances McDormand? Is it only because she just won?
McDormand Fatigue.
Recent winners usually have an ‘afterglow’ effect though where they get nominated more easily shortly after winning an Oscar.
They also seem to win more often when nominated. Haven’t looked at the numbers, but it sure seems that way. There are tons of examples of actors winning two in quick succession throughout Oscar history. Not as many of actors winning two many years apart, I think. Only the greats do that, usually. Which is one of the reasons Hudson winning, for example, seems unlikely.
Paul Th0mas Anders0n is arguably the Greatest Filmmaker 0f his Generati0n and he has never w0n an Academy Award f0r Directing 0r writing . But Chl0e Zha0 , Damien Chazelle , Michel Hazenvici0us and Danny B0yle have all w0n f0r best Direct0r and Emerald Fennell , J0rdan Peele , GrahamM00re and Chris Terri0 have all w0n f0r screenplay . N0ne 0f th0se pe0ple have ever c0me cl0se t0 what P.T.A. has d0ne !
PTA is amazing but Zhao and Fennell completely deserved their awards last year.
Took the words out of my mouth… (Although actually for me Fennell deserved both of those Oscars, even. But Zhao was a great winner.)
Considering how hard The Father charged, if Zeller had been in the directing field there might have been a shocking upset.
I actually had him predicted to get into directing. 🙂 Alas, it was a bit too soon for that… But at least, in hindsight, given how well The Father did at the end, at both BAFTA and the Oscars, that prediction looks like it might have been pretty close to working out. Who knows by how little he missed?! (And it would have been rather deserved, I would say, the nomination. I have him in sixth among the directors who had any sort of a chance in my personal standings.) And, yeah, had he made it in, the final vote might have looked quite different… (Although, given that Zhao had won everything and shown zero weakness – unlike Mendes for 1917, who didn’t manage acting or editing nominations, thus running into that virtually unbeatable old stat, plus he only tied with Bong at Critics Choice -, I still think she was probably too hard to beat, by anybody. But yeah, with a late release like that – I mean The Father – and the weird, shifted awards season schedule, we can’t be sure at all how reliable or not the stats might have been in that particular instance.)
The emergence of Olivia Colman as acting juggernaut is one of the greatest things in the last few years
yep, she will be a Dame for sure! Cut to 30 years in the future, she will have the kudos of Judi Dench and Maggie Smith. Or Helen Mirren.
Amazing considering her beginnings as a sketch comedian
Oh yeah, I love her!
Sort of like the old scenario with the Pianist, I think if there had been two more weeks of voting, The Father would have pulled the BP upset.
With only a few front runners in directing and best pic this year, this would be a perfect time to award PTA. He is one of the best working today.
The Rider says “Zhao has the talent to have won Oscar”
Sarcasm aside, PTA was very unlucky that his single best film ran into the Coen Brothers single best film. And his early films were considered Scorcese/Altman light (and Boogie Nights REALLY pissed off older Oscar voters). Since There Will Be Blood, he’s increasingly made films that deliberately kept audiences at arms’ length while he descended up his own ass. Maybe this new one is a return to form, but there’s a lot of water under Oscar’s bridge with him.
God, I’m really rooting for Stewart, not just because of her performance (which is brilliant itself and deserves all the credit and awards), but because she has been working for 20 years non-stop and has been trying to prove herself after Twilight, like really, with very diverse roles she chose to play. What I mean is, she has been pushing herself a lot during this time, trying to get out her comfort zone (there are many actors who finish their career with the same type of roles, never pushing/challenging themselves, never going out their comfort zone). Also, her attitude (unlike Gaga or Will Smith) makes me like her more, not praising herself in the interviews, she seems to be happy just talking about a movie she loves. Having said that, I wouldn’t mind if Nicole won it, or Jessica, or Cruz, they all would be deserving. But right now, I’m certainly rooting for Stewart.
So in the last few days
– tick, tick … BOOM! debuted to very strong reviews at AFI Fest, establishing Garfield as a strong contender in Actor and also the film that could very well be a BP contender, too
– Being the Ricardos debuted to very positive early word (reviews on the 7th of December), establishing Kidman and Sorkin as strong contenders in Actress and original screenplay respectively, and the film as a semi-unexpected BP contender, as well
– Licorice Pizza received rave reviews (93 MC based on 10 reviews), establishing itself as not just a script contender and a Globes comedy contender, but as a proper PTA crowdpleaser that very well could compete in all major categories, not just BP and BD, but seeing these reviews even lead actor and lead actress could be in play here.
And we still have Nightmare Alley, Don’t Look Up and West Side Story, each with the potential to crash major categories.
This is why it is always good to remember that we REALLY don’t know shit in the September-November phase.
For what it’s worth The Power of the Dog, Belfast and King Richard continue to look good Oscar-wise.
Only now they have proper high-profile competition. And they may get even more in the next few weeks.
Your summaries are the best.
They really are. I always look forward to a Phantom write-up.
Thanks you two.
Wow, even though it´s very early and not many reviews in account, but I´m very happy to see the new PT Anderson living up the expectations!
I have seen a few reviews praising Alana. I wonder if Licorice Pizza gets a broad support especially from industry and critiques, can Alana make to the top five of the already quite crowded Best Actress race?
I am very intrigued by how far Cooper Hoffman and Alana Haim could go this season because on paper both lead acting categories are already full but at the same time if Licorice Pizza turns out to be THE most critically acclaimed film of the year that the industry very easily could decide to make PTA’s big Oscar moment, then acting nominations could happen, too.
As crowded as Best Actress is this year, it also seems to be very much up in the air with probably only Stewart and now maybe Kidman being near-locks and around 10 VERY viable contenders vying for the remaining three slots so Haim is definitely in there with a shot.
What is somewhat surprising that Best Actor is not as competitive this year as it usually is and yet I think Hoffman will have a tougher time making a dent in the race because while the category currently has fewer strong contenders, it does seem to have 5 near-locks. Emphasis on “near”, it is clearly too early to claim the category is locked but at the same time I have a hard time imagining anyone from the Smith – Washington – Cumberbatch – Dinklage – Garfield quintet to miss the cut in the end and even if they do I would guess it would be to someone from the Cooper – DiCaprio – Phoenix – Bardem – Hill quintet with longer shots like Daniel Craig (Bafta nod ?), Simon Rex (boost from critics groups ?) and Mahershala Ali also still in the mix.
I think you’re a bit too confident in that Best Actor lineup. It’s simply too early. I think it’s highly likely (let’s say 95%) that at least one of Smith, Washington, Cumberbatch, Dinklage and Garfield misses. (no idea who, though)
Then again if I were THAT confident in that quintet, I wouldn’t have listed 9 other contenders I still consider to be in the mix.
Also, is Cooper confirmed definitely lead? If it is Alana’s film and he could campaign supporting then I think he may have a decent chance too (though by the looks of it that would be pretty atrocious category fraud).
It worked for Timothy Hutton….
Thank you. The 17th is the BAFTA LA screening for Don’t Look Up and the 18th another LA screening. McKay, DiCaprio, Lawrence, and Streep will be answering questions. The cast members have large fan bases, so it will be a hit. They already have an abundance of awards. Academy members need to see all of the movies and they have 4 months.
Thanks for the info, on the other two, I think West Side Story will have its first official industry screening on the 29th or 30th of November, followed by Nightmare Alley on the 1st of December. Soon we will have word on all the players of the season.
Licorice Pizza is now at 95. Could it be the frontrunner?
With 8 Oscar nominations under his belt (2 BP, 2BD, 2 original script, 2 adapted script) Paul Thomas Anderson has been LONG overdue for a big win so if the precursors decide it is his time and secure him a sweep, the film very well could become the frontrunner. It doesn’t hurt that the film seems to be a crowdpleaser very easy to love since that does tend to be catnip for Oscar voters, especially when the writer / director is as acclaimed as PTA is.
For what it’s worth Belfast now has VERY serious competition for the “Oscar crowdpleaser” status. If Licorice Pizza catches on (and it will), it will be definitely a top contender in picture, director, original screenplay; three categories Belfast is definitely going for, as well.
Lic0rice Pizza changes everything and it’s ab0ut time !
I know Slumdog Millionaire didn’t have well-known leads and I know Licorice Pizza has some big names in the supporting cast. But I wonder if its only stumbling block could be the lack of veteran star power in the lead roles (however good they are). Grasping at straws, but it’s true, there seems to be very little going against it at the moment.
Lack of star power / recognisability will always be an issue even when the unknown contender has a famous last name. I mean John David Washington couldn’t get an Oscar nomination for a BP / BD nominated film and SAG+GG (Drama) nominations under his belt.
I think for Cooper Hoffman to be able to knock out someone from the Smith – Washington – Cumberbatch – Dinklage – Garfield quintet, he would need a perfect precursor track record as in all major nominations and at least a few major critics group awards.
Alana Haim is in a better position I think because there seems to be a lot more wiggle room in Best Actress this season than Best Actor.
Agreed. Having said that, looks like there may be a new contender in Leo DiCaprio based on that Don’t Look Up trailer.
I think Best Actor is starting to look very crowded.
Right now my money is on the Will Smith – Denzel Washington – Benedict Cumberbatch – Peter Dinklage – Andrew Garfield quintet.
But it can’t be emphasised enough that both Leonardo DiCaprio and Bradley Cooper have the industry status to show up last and still get the nomination, both have done it before (The Wolf of Wall Street, American Sniper).
There is also a good chance critics groups will give a major boost to a contender if not two : Joaquin Phoenix and Simon Rex.
Not to mention I am expecting a Bafta nomination for Daniel Craig and if that indeed happens, perception-wise he may even have the goods to surprise at the Oscars.
I also keep hearing from left and right that Mahershala Ali delivers his best performance to date in the very under-the-radar Swan Song … and considering he is a 2-time Oscar winner already that kind of praise also gives me pause before counting him out completely.
If the casting controversy doesn’t hit his campaign too hard and his film gets rave reviews, Javier Bardem could be a semi-surprise here, too.
And then we still have the newcomer leads of acclaimed crowdpleasers from Oscar-less, long-overdue Hollywood royalty : Jude Hill in Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast and Cooper Hoffman in Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza.
Long story short : while for now I am counting on the Smith / Washington / Cumberbatch / Dinklage / Garfield quintet, I still think these 5 slots are down to the 14 contenders above. It will be interesting to see how much the precursor stage of the season will narrow it down in the next few weeks.
I really think we need to take PTA winning at least something very seriously! He has the overdue factor while having a film that sounds accessible and is a hit with the critics.
I would have to see it to have an actual opinion, but if it is easy-to-love as some opinions seem to suggest, then I think it’s not an impossibility that it becomes a serious BP contender.
I’m not sure if the “easy-to-love” sentiment will translate from the critics to the Academy. It seems kind of light on plot and that put together with the “highbrow” vibe Anderson has been percieved through in recent years might make people think of it as something more comparable to Lady Bird (with less time to build a campaign), very much “easy-to-love” but somehow not embraced as the crowdpleaser of the season
I’m doubtful of tick tick boom for anything beyond Garfield. I did really enjoy it but I struggle to see it being a top of ballot pick for many people outside of new York theatre circles (who don’t have a lot of sway in the academy). Garfield is fantastic though and I’d be pretty surprised if he doesn’t go all the way to a nom.
We’ll wait for reviews on being the Ricardo’s but that looks promising and Licorice Pizza sounds like the real deal in the Oscar race.
What also came out today is reviews for Encanto which were… Decent, maybe slightly worse than Raya, slightly better than Luca. I still think it’s probably still Disney’ s best animated shot but it does leave the race reasonably wide open!
I really liked Raya and I am rooting for it in the Animated Feature category but I have to say the category is packed this year. Encanto is looking good for the nomination, I think, the early reviews are solid if not spectacular.
I love Raya and it is actually the best reviewed of the Disney offerings but for some reason it just feels forgotten so I think it’s probably going to be the first Disney film to fall off… But honestly given how “good but not spectacular” the encanto reviews are I am wondering if this is going to be a non Disney year (maybe flee or Mitchell’s vs the Machines) but who knows it is wide open. I agree Encanto is good for the nom though.
Those 3 then would go some way rescuing awards season rapidly alarming deteriorating appeal ey? Certainly these films have more potential take film going public with them than ‘ Power of the dog ” , ” belfast’ ey? Both those 2 films are unimaginative and feeling of ” been done before ” I have look into licorice pizza storyline thigh I get back u on that
If Sorkin missed for Chicago 7 it’s hard to imagine he’ll get in for … this.
Then again Chicago 7 was not a great film.
Being the Ricardos may be.
Why do you say that? Have you seen it?
I can’t see them giving a 2nd Oscar 3 years in a row to someone who has won 1 already.
I don’t think the Academy cares how many second Oscars or even third Oscars they give away—when they love someone, or the character they are playing, that is all they care about.
I see Nicole’s trajectory similarly to Renees in terms of the role. Lucille Ball and Judy Garland were and still are, highly loved and admired icons. That gave Renee a leg up, along with her comeback narrative….I think that will give Nicole a leg up, along with the truly admired and respected and daring film actresses that continually challenges herself narrative.
You could say that about Chastain or Cruz,Nicole’s never been away either.
True you could say the last part about them, but they don’t have the beloved and admired icon story that they are playing like Nicole. Chastain is playing a “known person”, but I would hardly consider Tammy an icon.
Chastain is gonna be lucky to even get nominated, if she does. I adore Chastain, but the more competitive the category gets with still even some more unknowns coming, her chances are growing weaker.
Tammy redeemed herself somewhat by showing compassion for AIDS victims. But she had 2 husbands go to prison. Jim Bakker is still a grifter. She is a curiosity and not as icon.
“when they love someone, or the character they are playing, that is all they care about.”
As they should…
I think last year’s acting races showed that they genuinely don’t care about this. They just vote for what they like best
Encanto starts at 61 on Metacritic: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/encanto-2021/critic-reviews
The American animated studio product seems to have really underwhelmed this year. So is something like Flee going to win or are they just going to default to one of these less enthusiastically reviewed movies that they’ve heard of?
I really hope Flee wins.
I think Luca was pretty good, wouldn’t be angry if it won.
Luca for me is a top tier Pixar.
My son loves it—I was unimpressed. But I’ve watched it, what seems like, a million times—so maybe I’m saying this because I’m over it.
I haven’t seen Luca yet, I meant this more in the context of general reactions (which seemed to imply that it’s kind of slight, which to me sounds like a really good move for Pixar right now)
I hope you can watch Luca soon. It probably doesn’t have that typical bad villain or adult hero in most Pixar films (Pixar villains are problematic characters tbh with Gabby Gabby as an exception) to add dramatic stakes yet lacking of fully realized characterization but for Luca on the contrary, all of its characters including a cat add to the storytelling. Not to mention the animation and the visual design are amongst the best of the studio!
So I just watched it and it’s really lovely, probably my favorite Pixar movie since at least Coco (although that’s probably more of a comment on recent Pixar movies than a rave about this movie) and weirdly I kind of feel like it’s on an even level with Flee for me (but Flee weirdly worked for me a little less than it seems to have for a lot of people). I wouldn’t mind it at all if Luca won
Up to 71 MC / 91 RT now. I am curious where it will end.
-Stewart – the presumptive front runner with great ink, but in a somewhat divisive film that isn’t lighting up the box office. She’s also untested with AMPAS.
-Chastain – amazing ink for her in a meh film with poor box office and early release date. IF she gets nominated, she may be a force, though.
-Gaga – some raves, some pans in a movie with some raves and some pans. She’s not exactly an actor’s branch darling. No idea what to do with her.
-Colman – she’s always great in an apparently great film. Good campaign going. But will AMPAS see it?
-Cruz – she just feels primed for the nom, doesn’t she? Will it happen, though?
-Kidman – beloved, great ink, film is apparently ‘good’. I don’t see too many things going against her at the moment.
-McDormand – great ink, but will there be McDormand fatigue within AMPAS? Probably not. But Denzel is getting better ink and she straddles that Lead/Supporting line in a movie that isn’t exactly AMPAS bait.
-Hudson – good ink for this amazing singer. Movie meh, early release date. But there is a lot of goodwill for Hudson. She may be solidly in, or she may be way out and there’s no way to tell right now.
-Comer – raves for her performance and, that is literally all she has going for her right now. Good film, but buzz is nil at the moment. Maybe she gets the newcomer nod, though, she’d face Zegler and Haim for that, as well.
-Thompson – SO good in Passing, but Negga stealing the spotlight, a bit.
-Lawrence – TBD. A major wildcard in this race.
-Berry/Bullock – probably really good in meh Netflix films. TBD.
-Mara – if Nightmare Alley is great, I’d keep an eye on her; remember the last time she was in a late-breaker (GWTDT)? She got a nom with extremely little time before voting began.
That’s 16 names that I just listed. As usual, most of these contenders have things going FOR and AGAINST them. I would say that the critics will tighten things up; but I also feel that those lists will be all over the place, as well.
Have you seen gaga in “ASIB”..? She was terrific and her singing, magnificent. As for “House of Gucci” she has overwhelmingly pulled in strong reviews. Not coming from a one-eyed fan perspective. It’s an accurate objective assessment of her reviews to date. Be fair – she’s evolved into a true artist.
To be perfectly fair, the social media reactions are not “overwhelmingly strong”, the film and her performance so far have been very divisive, got some raves and also some rather harsh criticism and with the review embargo not ending until basically the last minute, I don’t think the official critical consensus will be favourable, either. We’ll see soon enough. Only one week to go.
P.S. Speaking of ASIB I think it was a good performance elevated by great singing. There is no singing this time around.
The notices on Lady Gaga at this moment, from early screenings, have been overwhelmingly positive with the exception of one outlier. Just one.
I saw at least a few, I guess the reviews will have the final say next week.
We shouldn’t forget Cruz already beat Stewart in Venice. A jury is not the academy, I know, but it’s a big prize to consider. And Larrain’s style is not AMPAS’ cup of tea, look what happened to Portman’s performance in Jackie, an early front runner. If the Brits don’t like the movie, Stewart’s getting a hard time.
Good to know that latest trailer was likely a fluke
Predictions for best actor and best actress
Actor in a leading role
Dinklage
Smith
Washington
Bardem
Cumberbatch
Actress in a leading role
Comer
Stewart
Gaga
Hudson
Kidman
As for a potential Stewart / Kidman final showdown, I think it is important to emphasise that right now the best we can do is predict the nominees, predicting the winners will be an entirely different game.
So for now I still think Stewart is the safest bet for a nomination but that doesn’t mean I am fully convinced she will also win. For example if Being the Ricardos outshines Spencer in the precursor stage (former is looking good for SAG Ensemble, PGA, WGA nods; latter not so much), that would give Kidman the edge but at the same time if Stewart sweeps the precursor stage, then she may be able to overcome her film not getting significant support in other main categories.
We’ll see soon enough.
Hudson will sneak in over Gaga. The movie Respect is universally acclaimed due to Aretha Franklin’s passing a couple of years ago. Her chances are pretty good but so is Colman, Chastain, Gaga and Stewart
Respect is universally acclaimed? Really? I thought it got mediocre to decent at best reviews.
Respect was not acclaimed. In fact, it was all but dismissed but for its lead performance.
Colman is likely not getting in for this film or performance; it’s an odd, difficult character and mostly cerebral.
Universally acclaimed? Lol
Hudson is not getting in over Gaga unless Respect somehow pulls major resurgence which I don’t see
At the moment, it feels like Stewart and Kidman FEEL most locked. I reiterate, at the moment. Chastain should be in with a bullet, but meh film reviews, poor box office and early release date do not help. Hudson could be easily in or easily out — I can’t get a read on her chances this season. Cruz is getting amazing notices. Ditto Colman. But will AMPAS respond the way that critics likely will? Gaga? She’s not exactly an AMPAS actor’s branch darling and, we know her film will not get great reviews. Still have no idea what AMPAS would do for McDormand. And then there is still a sea of performances yet to come. What a race.
Best Actress is starting to look very interesting. I think if Nicole Kidman officially gets the rave reviews on the 7th then she and Kristen Stewart will be two near-locks already and if they end up being the final 2, it may come down to which one’s film gets a coveted BP nomination. Both look viable in the main category but definitely nowhere near done deals.
Penelope Cruz, Olivia Colman and Frances McDormand also continue to look strong out of the gate but in my opinion it could hurt them that the Academy had already done right by all three of them not to mention the unique set of challenges each will probably face this season, as well (Cruz and the foreign language precedent + Colman may be in a too small of an indie + McDormand’s film may be too avantgarde / Shakespearean for the Academy)
Jennifer Hudson is still hanging in there and why wouldn’t she : on top of the Aretha’s blessing narrative and the iconic role status, her film also got good (if not great reviews) and delivered good (if not great) Box Office, accomplishments some high-profile contenders either failed to deliver or have yet to deliver. I still think the film peaked too early and the August release will be the obstacle impossible to overcome in the end, but she is definitely still in the conversation. Jessica Chastain is in a similar boat (way too early release date + not strong enough critical and commercial performance) but unlike Hudson she has yet to win and also hasn’t been nominated in a decade (travesty), so that could help her this season for sure.
All pundits seem to be convinced still that Lady Gaga will make the cut. I am skeptical. IF the film receives at least good reviews (60+ MC) and delivers decent BO (20M+ OW) then I could see that Oscar nod happening. But those are big ifs and if I am brutally honest, I don’t expect it to end with neither a positive critical consensus nor BO hit status in the end.
Then there are the somewhat under the radar, still perfectly viable dark horse quartet who are underestimated for wildly different reasons : Tessa Thompson because the film is a small indie and she seemed to be overshadowed by her co-star (she wasn’t for the record, they were both equally impressive); Jodie Comer whose performance garnered unanimous raves but her film bombed at the Box Office; Alana Haim who seems to be in a lighthearted crowdpleaser and is a complete unknown in the film industry; Halle Berry whose film’s early word is not great although her performance did garner her great ink and Naomie Harris who is in the same boat as Berry only with a co-lead role instead of a proper star vehicle.
And of course there are a few yet-unseens still to come : Rachel Zegler, Sandra Bullock, Jennifer Lawrence, Rooney Mara.
In such a competitive year a great performance in a mediocre movie may not make it. Chastain may not make it.
I’m starting to think she may be in direct competition with Kidman. Both play
– over the top
– American
– redheaded
– television
– icons
only Kidman’s “icon” is much bigger, the film is considerably better positioned (December vs. September) with potentially much stronger reviews and also much stronger pedigree (Sorkin vs. Showalter).
The fact that from the major voting bodies (Critics Choice, HFPA, SAG) she will be also collecting votes on the TV side for Scenes from a Marriage, may hurt her bid on the film side, as well, with voters thinking “eh I nominated her once already this season I am voting for someone else on the film side then”.
It would be too bad because Chastain would REALLY deserve a third nomination already after a decade of nothing from the Academy.
Fewer people have heard of Tammy Faye compared to Lucille Ball. I watched I Love Lucy growing up. And kidman seems to be in a much better movies.
hello my friend. there’s shades of Carey Mulligan here (the ‘it’s time factor’) with Jessica Chastain and her pathway forward for recognition. I just remember Tammy Faye as a quite unlikable character – so whether Chastain can find her humanity and give a performance for voters to really get behind (disclaimer – haven”t seen the film). But i would love her to be an Oscar winner. She has delivered so many fascinating performances this past decade.
Hey, Dave ! I agree, I love Chastain but her campaign is already tricky this season.
yep sadly it still might not be her time. But it will happen. 🙂
Well, Being the Ricardos seems a more logical BP nominee than Spencer, surely, so I guess if the reviews are indeed very good for both her and the movie Kidman should be the new favorite, because of that.
I agree. Industry support will make all the difference if the final 2 will indeed be Stewart and Kidman.
Sure, Stewart is the early frontrunner thus is still semi-expected to deliver a clean sweep
BUT her film will be a considerably trickier position in other top categories including BP, meanwhile Being the Ricardos could secure – relatively easily – major guild nominations (SAG Ensemble, PGA, WGA, maybe even DGA) and Oscar nominations (for now I think the very least it looks good for a filler BP nod and an original script nod on top of Best Actress).
Kidman just makes more sense, too. 🙂 As I said before (and I know most people, yourself included, agree), K. Stewart winning for a Larrain movie doesn’t quite ring true. Were she not playing a historical figure I would think she had no shot at all, no matter how great the reviews. But even so it feels unlikely. I like both a lot, anyway, so at the moment I’d be very happy if either won. Probably marginally happier for Stewart, because she doesn’t have one.
Sorkin could be a threat to win.Original Screenplay over Belfast. Can it give kidman a second over Kristen Stewart? Maybe. Also a threat to win.Original hair and makeup. Kidman for me either nails it like To Die For, Dogville (her two best performances for me) or is bad like Bewitched, Grace Of Monaco, Just Go With It.
If they could give a third to McDormand instead of a first to Carey Mulligan, this Academy clearly would have no issue giving a second to Kidman before giving a first to Stewart. Having said that, Stewart should not be underestimated.
Glad to see the Dogville shoutout. She was great in that.
She was perfection and Trier’s film is an instant classic.
If early word translates to a solid critical consensus (70s range MC), I think it will get nominations in
Picture
Original Screenplay
Lead Actress
Costumes
Production Design
if it gets proper raves (81+ MC), it could also have a shot at
Director
Lead Actor
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Cinematography
Editing
Original Score.
But for now my guess would be a 75 MC and those 5 nominations above.
I think even if the MC is in the 75ish range, It could easily sneak into the supporting races—those categories just seem like chaos that anyone can break through!
Too bad its theatrical run will be curtailed by its quick streaming date.
It’s flat-out nuts Nicole has only been nominated for an Oscar four times considering her ridiculously long list of Oscar-worthy turns. She wasn’t even nominated for To Die For, The Killing Of A Sacred Deer or Destroyer for which she should have deservedly swept the entire season.
She continues to challenge herself all the time and is never anything less than fully committed to extremely daring material. I’m extremely happy for the reactions Being The Ricardos and her work got. I really hope she scores her overdue and then some fifth nomination.
Would nominate her for The Paperboy instead of Lion though. But aside from To Die For, she should have been nominated also for Stoker, Cold Mountain, The Beguiled and Birth.
Sorry, I thought Cold Mountain was truly insufferable.
Trying to count the times she was robbed even of a nomination one loses count. I mean Stoker or Birth, man, she slayed. And yeah, even though The Paperboy wasn’t my cup of tea her performance was Oscar-worthy and then some in that as well – that SAG nomination felt so good.
Cold Mountain was deserving of more love than it got!
That should have been a cake walk nomination. You are so right though, that she has always challenged her self in daring parts that most actress never even go towards. She has a lot of love and respect within the industry—I could easily see this being her ticket to another Oscar!
I don’t get the hate on Cold Mountain really. It’s a traditional filmmaking, yes. But it’s something that’s no longer being made today in Hollywood and Anthony Minghella’s adaptation and direction was masterful in showcasing a sweeping epic yet still felt intimate.
I agree, that film was underrated in its time and is still underrated today.
Well I for one have had Being the Ricardos in Best Picture, Writing, Actress, Actor, and Supporting actor for at least a month maybe longer now. I recall saying dismiss it all at your own peril—Glad to see it turns out my gut intuition was right in my predictions.
I think Kidman is coming for Oscar #2!!!!
It’s all about the narratives – potential 2nd Oscars for two leads playing iconic and beloved figures. And another who is so overdue for her first; playing a notorious if not terribly well liked infamous woman. And an overdue narrative for a woman of color to follow up Halle Berry’s win 2 decades ago. And Nicole Kidman deserving a 2nd Oscar. Then there’s a ‘little known’ and ‘barely discussed’ actress playing one of the most talked about women of last century. It’s gonna be a big category in Leading Actress, and I couldn’t be happier about that.
Right now I do not believe there is a lock in the actress category—which is strange and exciting all at the same time. I don’t think Stewart is as locked as other people seem to think. Frances is being severally overlooked here. I’m thinking Chastain and Hudson peaked far too soon—so I’m not sure how they stand. Berry is definitely a dark horse. We still don’t know anything about Jennifer Lawrence, Sandra Bullock, or Rachel Zegler. Cruz is looking good for nomination. I don’t know, it’s bonkers. If I was picking today—many unseen performances, just gut:
1. Kidman
2. Cruz
3. Mcdormand
4. Gaga
5. Colman
Likely, but not sold:
6. Chastain
7. Stewart
8. Berry
9. Hudson
10. Comer
Long-shots:
11. Zegler
12. Lawrence
13. Lawrence
14. Thompson
15. Haim
My top 2 I feel are likely going to be nominated—though not locked. I think it will be a combination of those two, and anyone 3-10. 11-15 have some serious mountains to climb to make the top 5.
But how exciting to have so many possibilities and so many unknowns for most of the categories. Usually by now we have a fairly clear picture of how things might go. Best Actor is like the only category that feels like it has locks. I have Sasha’s exact leading male predictions—though I don’t have Smith winning it. Really hoping for Dinklage—whom I adore followed by Washington. Supporting acting categories are a mess—sorta feels unpredictable right now. I’m just so happy that it isn’t predictable—it makes for fun shocks on nomination morning and possibly upsets at the ceremony. I LOVED how Mcdormand and Hopkins upset last year—hoping this year stays just as unpredictable.
It was batshit crazy last season too, and yet it all fell into some sort of order as it invariably does. I am about to watch ‘Respect’ but only have moderate expectations for it. I love Jessica Chastain (have not seen her movie) but grew up watching Tammy Faye from afar and wonder if she is too unlikable or unsympathetic a character to garner Chastain the prize? I know, Streep and Thatcher but that 3rd Oscar was 29 years in the making. She could have played a street light that year and won!
Early only works occasionally i find for Oscars – i think you’re right that if they peak too soon they will be forgotten – a brighter, shinier lady will move to the spotlight. I wonder if after winning 2 Oscars this year, Frances McDormand will be overlooked?
Very excited about Olivia Colman’s movie; not personally a Gaga fan, I do like Penelope Cruz but she too already has an Oscar, so with Hudson, Bullock, Kidman, Cruz, Lawrence, Colman, Berry already Oscar-ed – does this play a little into how the category takes shape? AMPAS members are just as canny as we are i reckon on who has already won and who has not.
I am a fan of Kristen Stewart (i love the hubris she causes on forums and sites like AD), and I think the internet would break if she does win, and that would be just fine with me.
Just because I think she is sublime – I would like to see Jessica Chastain anointed. But i wanted Carey Mulligan for the same reason and it doesn’t work that way…
Happy months ahead of speculation.
Something Phantom said above, sorta—I’m paraphrasing and adding to it :
If AMPAS are willing to give a third to Mcdormand, especially over giving Mulligan a first—why would they care if Kidman got a second over a first for someone else.
I’m not so sure that Oscar voters remember who has one or not unless it’s heavily discussed. Especially with many new members who are young and don’t even remember or recall who won 20 years ago.
Yes it would be fascinating if it came down to Kristen Stewart and Nicole Kidman, I can see Kidman prevailing on popularity alone – pitting two iconic women (three if you count Jennifer Hudson.
But i am drawn back to the Adrien Brody win for The Pianist – he was up against 4 previous winners, and whilst Polanski did win Director, Brody was by no means the favourite going into that year. So if there are 4 previous winners and one younger, unrewarded – I can see that scenario happening again.
Butttt something to ponder about that situation—was it so much that Brody was against other past winners or was it because the movie was on a massive up swing and Brody was taken along for the ride? Some believe that giving another few weeks The Pianist could have easily over taken Chicago—Polanski’s win was the likely sign there. Another thing to ponder—America was in the beginning stages of being in the stupidest war in history—maybe that’s why The Pianist stared resonating and another possible reason Brody got swept up in a surge?
Quite possibly, You make some salient points my friend. I remember being delighted by Brody’s win. It was a striking performance.
I LOVED Brodys win—his speech was also so beautiful and his reaction is the most genuine responses I’ve ever seen. I wish he had a career that represented how good of an actor that he has potential to be.
Though Cage and Nicholson had amazing performances that year too, it was one of those rare years that any one would have been a worthy winner.
Or they can just give McDormand a fourth!
and enjoy these next three days too, Jerm 🙂 🙂 🙂
Thank you Dave!!! Hoping for a good week, we shall see.
However, I’m currently awaiting covid test results. Trying to stay positive, while also trying to make wise decisions with my health and children’s health. Send prayers or positive vibes—whatever you believe.
Prayers, positive vibes, warm fuzzies for the kids (and some for you too Jerm), wishes, thoughts and good outcomes. Oh and fingers, eyes, toes, arms, legs, crossed!
Unfortunately, my family and I are spending my birthday in quarantine. I tested positive. So far mostly mild symptoms for my whole family, so hoping and praying we stay that way.
Thanks for the well wishes! We will find a way to still celebrate!
I saw Twitter light up like a Christmas Tree for this one, and I’m so excited to hear that it was well-received. The trailers really didn’t land for me.
I had hopes for the film. Great to know it could be an awards contender. Nicole!!!
The main thing is there are lots of choices for those who like feature-length digital videos. Film fans like me will settle for ‘Licorice Pizza’. Thank God for P.T. Anderson.
So very pleased to keep reading positive takes on Being the Ricardos and of its performances. I kinda sorta love how crazy packed Best Actress is.
Me too. And at the end of the day regardless of who actually makes it to that Top 5 through that bloodbath of this year’s Best actress race it’s great to see so many terrific leading female turns in one year. Really happy for Nicole btw – always such a force.
Every time I see Jennifer Hudson mentioned, I can only flash on the immortal words of Regina George.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c51746c9f3a13990b7c57664857d5bfaed4941fd1fadb9d35b098626c9d498f2.gif