As the Oscars became less populist and more insular, which they have done starting in the early 2000s and reaching a point now where there is almost a complete disconnect between what they choose and what the public sees, they began to align more with the critics’ awards, specifically the Gothams. They have a decent track record for awarding the film most likely to get a Best Picture nomination. Here are their winners since 2004:
2004-Sideways
2005-Capote
2006-Half Nelson
2007-Into the Wild
2008-Frozen River
2009-The Hurt Locker
2010-Winter’s Bone
2011-Beginners + Tree of Life
2012-Moonrise Kingdom
2013-Inside Llewyn Davis
2015-Spotlight
2016-Moonlight
2017-Call Me By Your Name
2018-The Rider
2019-Marriage Story
2020-Nomadland
More often than not the film gets in for Best Picture but not enough for it to be iron clad. It’s a maybe.
They’ve only been doing Best Actor since 2013, but here is how that has gone:
2013-Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
2014-Michael Keaton, Birdman
2015-Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
2016-Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2017-James Franco, The Disaster Artist
2018-Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
2019-Adam Driver, Marriage Story
2020-Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Best Actress
2013-Brie Larson, Short Term 12
2014-Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2015-Ben Powley, Diary of a Teenage Girl
2016-Isabelle Huppert, Elle
2017-Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
2018-Toni Collette, Hereditary
2019-Awkwafina, The Farewell
2020-Nicole Beharie, Miss Juneteenth
This tells me there’s a decent chance for some crossover, but that it isn’t something that you can count on. It looks very Film Twitter to me. Not that that’s a bad thing, just that it is an even more insular world than the Oscars have become.
No gender, ten slots
The truly annoying thing about this year will be having no separate categories for the performances. It’s complete insanity and reduces a performer’s opportunity to start building momentum. Changes in the awards race, in my opinion, should benefit the people who are being voted on, not the people doing the voting. But hey. No one is going to listen to me. So instead of two winners, we now have one winner. STUPID.
The Rise of Streaming
In looking over their nominees, it seems to me that Long-Form Television has the better offerings overall. The writing is better. The subject matter is more daring. It’s at least as good, if not better than the features. Seriously, look at these – how do you even choose?
The Good Lord Bird
It’s A Sin
Small Axe
Squid Game
The Underground Railroad
The White Lotus
So the better television and streaming gets, the more it will challenge the film industry to be as good, particularly since the market has mostly been taken out of it, at least for now. There is no reason, for instance, that feature films have to stick to the 90 minute run time. They should be able to be as long or as short as they can hold people’s attentions. Anyway, should the industry fully embrace the future that’s hitting them anyway, we should start to see some interesting change-ups in the next decade, I’d imagine.
Now let’s get to our predictions
Best Feature
The Green Knight – Ryan Adams
The Lost Daughter – Mark Johnson, Sasha Stone
Passing – Clarence Moye
Pig
Test Pattern
Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Faya Dayi
Flee – Stone, Moye, Adams, Johnson
President
Summer Of Soul (…Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Best International Feature
Azor
Drive My Car – Stone, Adams, Moye
The Souvenir Part II
Titane
What Do We See When We Look at the Sky?
The Worst Person in the World – Johnson
Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award
Maggie Gyllenhaal for The Lost Daughter – Stone, Johnson
Edson Oda for Nine Days
Rebecca Hall for Passing
Emma Seligman for Shiva Baby – Adams, Moye
Shatara Michelle Ford for Test Pattern
Best Screenplay
The Card Counter, Paul Schrader – Adams
El Planeta, Amalia Ulman
The Green Knight, David Lowery
The Lost Daughter, Maggie Gyllenhaal – Moye, Johnson
Passing, Rebecca Hall – Stone
Red Rocket, Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch
Outstanding Lead Performance
Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter – Stone, Moye, Johnson
Frankie Faison in The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain
Michael Greyeyes in Wild Indian
Brittany S. Hall in Test Pattern
Oscar Isaac in The Card Counter – Adams
Taylour Paige in Zola
Joaquin Phoenix in C’mon C’mon
Simon Rex in Red Rocket
Lili Taylor in Paper Spiders
Tessa Thompson in Passing
Outstanding Supporting Performance
Reed Birney in Mass
Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter
Colman Domingo in Zola
Gaby Hoffmann in C’mon C’mon
Troy Kotsur in CODA
Marlee Matlin in CODA
Ruth Negga in Passing – Stone, Adams, Moye, Johnson
Breakthrough Performer
Emilia Jones in CODA – Stone
Natalie Morales in Language Lessons
Rachel Sennott in Shiva Baby – Adams, Moye, Johnson
Suzanna Son in Red Rocket
Amalia Ulman in El Planeta
Breakthrough Series – Long Format (over 40 minutes)
The Good Lord Bird
It’s A Sin
Small Axe
Squid Game – Stone
The Underground Railroad – Moye, Johnson
The White Lotus – Adams
Breakthrough Series – Short Format (under 40 minutes)
Blindspotting
Hacks – Johnson
Reservation Dogs – Stone, Adams, Moye
Run the World
We Are Lady Parts
Breakthrough Nonfiction Series
City So Real
Exterminate All the Brutes
How to With John Wilson – Johnson
Philly D.A.
Pride – Stone, Adams, Moye
Outstanding Performance in a New Series
Jennifer Coolidge in The White Lotus – Stone, Adams, Moye
Michael Greyeyes in Rutherford Falls
Ethan Hawke in The Good Lord Bird
Devery Jacobs in Reservation Dogs
Lee Jung-jae in Squid Game
Thuso Mbedu in The Underground Railroad
Jean Smart in Hacks
Omar Sy in Lupin
Anya Taylor-Joy in The Queen’s Gambit – Johnson
Anjana Vasan in We Are Lady Parts