As the National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics awards came down over the past 48 hours, it was a good reminder of the differences between film critics and Oscar voters. Up until COVID ended film and awards as we know them, the awards came so fast and furiously, with voting mostly done at the beginning of January. But this year, as it was a year ago, we’ll have one more month to think things through before the final ballots are filled out.
This is how the industry sees film critics:
And when it comes to the Oscars, the critics aren’t exactly supportive. They used to hate them more before the Oscars became more like the critics, but in general, they have a kind of strange relationship to the Oscars. They seem to care about them and want them to be “better,” and they seem to want to influence them. Like when Roma could have won, the critics were very involved in that contest. They do seem to care what the final verdict is in a given year. But ultimately, they see themselves as people who appreciate cinema, where they see the Oscars as a game of fame, celebrity, power, publicity, etc.
The line used to be much sharper between the two groups. They are different enough, though, that it’s important to remember that actors tend to see the art of acting differently than the critics do. That’s probably the biggest difference. Also, while critics give out crafts awards for cinematography and editing and such, the industry voters that award these things actually do them, or did them for a living. What cinematographers think is the best cinematography is sometimes different from what critics think, ditto costumes, or any other craft professional. The entire Academy votes on all of these categories, so they don’t leave the ultimate verdict up to the artisans — but people who make movies are fundamentally different from people who write about and watch movies.
Ideally, the industry awards films that do well in their industry and for their industry. Critics are a part of that, but they were never meant to be all of it.
The more the Oscars head in their own direction, the better. The more they head in the direction of the critics, the worse for their survival. The more the critics decouple from the Oscars, the better for them too. Their job isn’t necessarily to be part of the same organism that decides the Oscars.
Sometimes they overlap, sometimes they don’t. Right now, they will have to overlap because there just aren’t many other avenues for movies except to ride the awards track. Winning any critics awards can help any movie make a little bit more money and can help it be seen by a few more people. The Oscars, if they could find their way back towards a broader audience, can do that on a much larger scale.
But be that as it may, what do we take from these award announcements this week? In my view, they can add to a consensus or buzz, but they can’t take away. It matters less that The Power of the Dog didn’t place at the National Board of Review (neither did The Shape of Water) than that Jane Campion won Best Director at the New York Film Critics.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza has gotten probably the biggest boost, even though it was expected to do well with critics. With very strong reviews and admiration across the board, Anderson’s film seems poised for more than a few nominations.
Lady Gaga got a boost with a Best Actress win at New York, as did Rachel Zegler from West Side Story at the National Board of Review. Don’t Look Up made both Detroit and the NBR’s list for Best Film, so that may be an indicator that it might place in a few of the top categories. We just don’t know where.
Steven Spielberg and West Side Story hit strong, which seems to indicate that Spielberg will be looking at yet another slam dunk nomination for Best Director. The film will likely be the nominations leader heading in, as it really is a class act across the board. Likewise, Guillermo Del Toro’s Nightmare Alley is a crafts dream, but also could land in the top categories.
So let’s talk about Best Actress. Obviously we expected Kristen Stewart to dominate the critics awards. Critics, like anyone, don’t really like to be forgone conclusions. So if everyone is predicting them to do something, there is a pretty good chance they won’t do that — at least in the beginning. Stewart might catch fire and just keep winning through the next month, or someone else might take the lead and start winning.
But remember, just because you aren’t seeing a movie awarded among these critics awards doesn’t mean they won’t show up when we get to the more populist groups, like the Golden Globes (December 13), or the DGA, PGA, etc. The industry awards are the ones that really help figure out how the Oscars will go.
So I’m not really sure what to make of Best Actress right now. I’m not quite ready to swap out Stewart just yet. It is going to take more intel before I do that. But, you know, with a grain of salt. Let’s do it.
These are going to keep changing and evolving as the weeks wear on. Nothing set in stone.
Best Picture
1. Belfast
2. West Side Story
3. The Power of the Dog
3. King Richard
4. Dune
5. Licorice Pizza
6. Being the Ricardos
7. Nightmare Alley
8. The Last Duel
9. Don’t Look Up
10. CODA
Best Director
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Alts: Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley; Renaldo Marcus Green, King Richard; Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos; Pedro Almodóvar, Parallel Mothers
Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Alts: Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter; Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers; Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth; Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye; Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Will Smith, King Richard
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Andrew Garfield, tick tick… Boom
Alt. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth; Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Alts: Caitriona Balfe, Belfast; Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos; Ann Dowd, Mass; Haley Bennett, Cyrano; Martha Plimpton, Mass
Supporting Actor
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Alts: Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up; Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
CODA
The Last Duel
The Lost Daughter
Alts: Dune, Nightmare Alley
Original Screenplay
Belfast
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Being the Ricardos
Don’t Look Up
Alts: Parallel Mothers, C’mon C’mon,
Cinematography
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley
Dune
Belfast
Alt: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Costumes
Cruella
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Being the Ricardos
Alts: The Last Duel, Dune, The Power of the Dog
Editing
West Side Story
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
Production Design
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Last Duel
Sound
West Side Story
Dune
No Time to Die
The Last Duel
Tick Tick Boom
Visual Effects
Nightmare Alley
Dune
Finch
Eternals
Shang-Chi
Animated Feature
Encanto
Mitchells vs. the Machines
Luca
Flee
Spirit Untamed