A few major things happened in the two weeks since we last dropped our Awards Daily Oscar Squad rankings. Most seismically, Steven Spielberg stunned the world with his critically acclaimed reimagined take on West Side Story. Then, many finally saw and loved Guillermo del Toro’s Nightmare Alley. Finally, two major critics groups weighed in on the 2021 film scene, surprising with their unexpected selections.
Starting with West Side Story, the film makes a larger impact across the Oscar Squad this week, although the shifts weren’t necessarily as huge as they were for last week’s Being the Ricardos. That’s probably because Ricardos wasn’t expected to be a major player, while many on the Squad did expect at the very minimum a contender out of Spielberg. The picture itself rose a few notches to land just outside of the top five contenders. Spielberg, himself, moves comfortably into the number three slot in the directors top five, bumping out King Richard’s Renaldo Marcus Green.
In the acting races, Rachel Zegler (fresh from her National Board of Review win for Best Actress), Mike Faist, David Alvarez, and Rita Moreno make their first appearances in the charts. People are warming to the idea that the Academy may settle on Ariana DeBose as the Supporting Actress leader, although that’s far from certain given Moreno’s rise following the film’s premiere. Crafts wise, Wise Side Story cements itself as a major contender with many Squad members predicting wins.
Is there a scenario where West Side Story could sweep? We will see…
On the Nightmare Alley front, the news was slightly mixed following initial screenings. It’s still in contention for a Best Picture slot, although it has waned a bit. For now, del Toro falls out of the top five director race as many consider the film mostly a crafts play. On the plus side, star Bradley Cooper moved up in the rankings following several very strong notices for his work. Curiously, co-star Cate Blanchett, frequently mentioned as delivering another great performance by early audiences, failed to make any dent in the Supporting Actress race. That’s most likely due to the hugely competitive nature of that race.
Otherwise, the frontrunners identified in previous Oscar Squads remain the frontrunners. We likely won’t see massive shifts in predictions aside from incremental moves up and down the chart until the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, or guilds start weighing in later in December and January.
One compelling factor to watch over the next few weekends will be how audiences react to these awards-friendly films. If West Side Story, for example, breaks through the pandemic-tentative box office this weekend, then it could start an avalanche that rolls all the way to the Dolby Theater.
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Claudiu, if these top category predictions hold, you and I will have a 50-50 split of the top categories. We’re very intelligent. 🙂
Like I said… I doubt we’ll do that well. Also, it’s easier with two picks each. 🙂 But I remember we got 6/8 between us one year (though you had 4 of them), so we did alright with one, too, I suppose…
I am not sure either of us has the winner in supporting actress (I think it is DeBose, at least right now). At least right now, we should have the winner in all the other categories we predicted. I would not rule out another shocking win by Colman.
Yeah, I just watched Dog and I’m not feeling Dunst as the winner… It probably is DeBose, indeed… Colman won’t win, I told you. 🙂 (I’m still not sure she’ll even be nominated. The industry hasn’t spoken yet – and a BAFTA nomination, coming from a jury, might not be as telling anymore.) I’d honestly be amazed if I was wrong about that.
But, yeah, I guess we’re doing alright everywhere else, for now. 🙂
Just have to say-the still image you chose showing Maria at the dance from the ‘revised’ WSS – I feel zero charisma with that scene. The 1961 sequence where time stands still between Natalie Wood & Richard B. spotting each other for the first time is pure movie magic and one of my favorite shots of all time. Just from the new WSS trailer alone, that scene does nothing…
Sasha stone, with all due respect, The last duel is not more likely to get in best picture than Dune. Like… that isn’t even a possibility. I know you have this thing for the last duel, but it’s compromising your predictions.
There have been basically zero BP and BD Oscars for American directors who started in the indie era of the Nineties. This needs to be the year for PTA.
Actually an interesting trivia question:
Q: Who are the only two American Best Director winners who debuted in the ’90s?
A: Kevin Costner and Mel Gibson
Exactly.
I see Kenneth Branagh has been nominated for an Oscar for Directing, Writing, Acting in a Lead Role and Acting in a Supporting Role but has never won one. That means he’s due and here he is with a movie he both wrote and directed and that everyone seems to like. I think Belfast is the front runner for Pic, Director and Screenplay.
Being nominated once in each category in the 90s does not make you overdue. His recent film career has been less than stellar.
Original Screenplay will either be Belfast or Licorice Pizza
I think Belfast gets Picture, Screenplay, and perhaps a supporting award.
I don’t quite know the hesitancy Sasha has with Andrew Garfield.
Can he miss? Sure. But nearly everyone has him 2nd or 3rd and she’s the only one to have him outside the Top 5.
Maybe she knows something about him or the film that we don’t’ maybe Academy types aren’t into him or the film like with think he/it is.
I know Bardem is beloved and the industry might go with him ultimately. And sure, Kidman can bring him right along. But reviews for BTR aren’t too stimulating, thus far. I suppose time will tell. The industry are not critics.
Don’t Look Up appears to be DOA. Weird that peoples dislike for it didn’t trickle out after it’s premiere despite review embargo.
Also want to say I just finished Power of the Dog and was majorly disappointed. Nothing felt authentic. Everyone was miscast and I kept wanting to rewatch There Will Be Blood as a result.
I thought Power of the Dog was pretty brilliant, but it was definitely not the movie I was expecting to see – it really shouldn’t have been marketed as the next There Will be Blood. I kept expecting Cumberbatch to do some REALLY heinous stuff, and consequently felt – at points – that Dunst’s character was being a little … melodramatic? But about halfway to two-thirds of the way into the movie, once I got over that, it made much more sense to me, and worked much better for me overall. Cumberbatch was insidious in his own ways, but he was never meant to be borderline psychopathic like DDL – and once I understood his character a bit better and got DDL out of my brain, I enjoyed the movie much more.
Well said. I too expected more dramatic heft to justify what came towards the end of the movie, but it simply didn’t arrive for me; rendering it style over substance. But absolutely as aroncido states below, the marketing and hype over what sort of film it is and what its main character is or does, was not commensurate with what actually was depicted on screen. Not for me anyway. Good to read some qualified reactions to the movie too. There were parts I really loved about the movie; others not so much.
Marketing for this film and several other Netflix films this year is just misleading and dishonest. The trailer for The Lost Daughter almost makes it seem like a thriller. I hope it doesn’t become a widespread thing.
Dog looking very strong here.
#1 film globally on Netflix.
Leading critics top 10 lists https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/720dfb9203dfa99532a162cdfa807fdaccac8f2985c91eb9f1b8851a1f05c1f8.jpg
Seriously though, if you go by these predictions, there’s no way it sweeps director, adapted screenplay, editing, cinematography, supporting actor and supporting actress (6) and loses picture.
To be clear, I’m not saying it’s going to win all these, but if it dies, it’s winning picture.
K0di Smitt McPhee f0r his N0rman Bates impers0nati0n ?
Glad to see that most of you have dispensed with Dowd and that some of you have done away with the Will Smith charade. 🙂
FYI – Nitram currently sweeping the AACTAs, already has Actor (clj), Actress (Judy) and Supports (LaPaglia & Essie) and Orig (Shaun Grant), Editing (Fenton)
Essie went b2b, Judy won her 9th, LaPaglia his 3rd
Picture and Director still to come. High Ground, The Dry, etc. could still upset but with a sweep like this unlikely.
Caleb should be in the best actor conversation. What a brilliant performance
Just won Picture & Director, that’s 8 overall, another AACTA sweep folks.
Please Oscars, find a way to make it happen.
I definitely do not see Zegler among the nominees, if so, applause, but in my opinion, in choosing between debutants I stay with Haim, he leaves his comfort zone and makes a great interpretation 🙂
The thing is, Zegler seems to have the best shot at a Best Actress nomination for a film in the BP category.
The thing is, Zegler seems to have the best shot at a Best Actress nomination for a film in the BP category.
She’s n0t even Puert0 Rican ! First Bardem playing a Cuban and n0w a Polish / C0lumbian playing Maria ! And Bradley C00per isn’t even a real Geek !
I l0ve Alana Haim !
Finally, Ricardo’s reviews are not so good. Personally, I no longer consider it such a strong player. However, the Academy loves McKay, so I wouldn’t rule out Don’t look up despite the mixed reviews.
But the Academy loves Sorkin too. Sorkin’s nominations come from 4 different films (including Molly’s Game, which wasn’t a best picture nom, or big contender). McKay’s nominations come from 2 films, both of which were Best Picture nominees.
Critics aren’t industry. And the industry doesnt like being told what to do or think by the critics. Both Being the Ricardos and Don’t Look Up are major contenders. Regardless of reviews. I personally think Sorkin’s pic has a better shot because its an actors movie, a writers movie, a crafts movie, and its about the industry.
True, the Academy loves Sorkin too, but I think his nominations are well deserved. “Vice” is a mess.