There is a big difference between the Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. Both of them matter in different ways. The reason the Globes matter is that they are the biggest next to the Oscars. The reason the Critics Choice matter is that they kind of group together the consensus of many of the people who SHAPE the Oscar race now. That didn’t used to be true. It’s only gotten more true since COVID hit because there isn’t a lively scene outside of the insular world that covers the Oscar race. Think: fashion week.
The Critics Choice matters now more than it used to because they are a group far larger than the Globes in terms of numbers but not quite as big as the guilds. They also have a slightly populist bent, meaning, they have members from all over the country, not all of them exist in the tiny bubble of Film Twitter. But remember, there is not much of a world outside of this one that exists in terms of the Oscar race, not anymore and probably not for a while, maybe not ever (one can still hope).
The Globes are better influencers but the Critics Choice are better at setting a consensus. Because they have seven nominees for the acting and for the directing categories, that gives them a chance to be more inclusive in terms of the harsh cut-off at five. The Oscars, of course, have only five. The Globes have the other category of Musical/Comedy to allow for that same kind of inclusiveness. The Critics Choice have other genres they honor, like comedy and action and young actors, which broadens their scope.
Having more people nominated means more celebrities at the show, which means better ratings for the show which means higher status for Critics Choice members. It is a win/win all the way around. This is my first year as a Critics Choice member and I’ve already turned in my ballot. It was quite the experience, let me tell you. But I did have an eye on what am I voting for here? Am I voting for my personal favorites or am I trying to push certain contenders into the nominations? I expect many feel that way.
If you cover the awards race at all you know that you become part of both shaping the consensus and going along with the consensus. There are outliers, and people take various sides. The Lady Gaga fans vs. the Nicole Kidman fans vs. the Kristen Stewart fans, for instance, are well known to anyone who covers the race. There are subtle advocates and not-so-subtle advocates. It’s hard to tell who is whom. But the key thing to remember is that we will be getting a massive info dump on Monday. This is going to be on the heels of the Los Angeles Film Critics that will announce on Sunday.
We are getting down to it and before long we will know our ten Best Picture contenders, more or less, give or take, and we will know our five Best Director nominees, more or less, give or take, and we will know our acting nominees and our ensemble nominees. It’s all happening over the next few weeks and by January it will be full-blown tits-out chaos.
This is just the calm before the storm is all.
So let’s look at where we think the Critics Choice and the Globes will overlap.
It seems like a safe bet that we have as our first tier:
Belfast
West Side Story
The Power of the Dog
King Richard
CODA
Second-tier (at least to me):
Licorice Pizza
Dune
Third tier:
Being the Ricardos (actor/writer-friendly)
Nightmare Alley (actor/director/crafts friendly)
Don’t Look Up (actor/social justice friendly)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (actor/director friendly)
That’s 11. But there are also films that could be in there as well:
The Lost Daughter (actor friendly)
tick… tick.. Boom (actor friendly)
Cyrano (actor friendly)
Spencer (actor friendly)
There will be films that hit all of the stops en route to Oscar and we’ll keep track of all of them. What I will be looking at specifically on Monday’s dump is what are the crossover choices and what are the ones that were left off. In terms of the Critics Choice, they have ten nominees but they only give their voters three options. So you’re still getting passion choices rather than broad spectrum. So I wonder how they will match with the Producers Guild and then with the Academy. But we have to start somewhere.
The Globes are the only group that has a special category for musicals. This year, for whatever reason, there is an exceptional offering of them, which makes it even more strange to me that the black list is out in force in the press, as the awards community really does try to draw some kind of ethical line – or is it just fear of being called out? Hard to tell. Either way, I for one do not participate in black lists. I never have. I never will. But beyond that, and beyond not thinking there is any part of the awards race that isn’t about publicity, power and status, it’s a great time to celebrate the musicals of this year.
There is a potential scenario where the Globes will have five musicals nominated:
West Side Story
In the Heights
Cyrano
tick… tick… BOOM
Being Evan Hansen
Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
I mean, come on. That’s quite something.
We will be awake bright and early for the big announcements. Fasten your seatbelts…
Here are this week’s predictions.
Best Picture
1. West Side Story
2. Belfast
3. The Power of the Dog
4. Licorice Pizza
5. King Richard
6. CODA
7. Nightmare Alley
8. Dune
9. Being the Ricardos
10. Don’t Look Up
Alt. House of Gucci, The Last Duel
Best Director
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Alts: Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley; Renaldo Marcus Green, King Richard; Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos; Pedro Almodóvar, Parallel Mothers
Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Alts: Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter; Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers; Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth; Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye; Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Alt. Andrew Garfield, tick… tick… Boom, Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Alts: Caitriona Balfe, Belfast; Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos; Ann Dowd, Mass; Haley Bennett, Cyrano; Martha Plimpton, Mass
Supporting Actor
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Alts: Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up; Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
CODA
Nightmare Alley
The Lost Daughter
Alts: Dune, The Last Duel
Original Screenplay
Belfast
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Being the Ricardos
Don’t Look Up
Alts: Parallel Mothers, C’mon C’mon
Cinematography
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dune
Belfast
Alt: Nightmare Alley
Costumes
Cruella
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Being the Ricardos
Alts: The Last Duel, Dune, The Power of the Dog
Editing
West Side Story
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
Production Design
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Last Duel
Sound
West Side Story
Dune
No Time to Die
The Last Duel
tick… tick… Boom
Visual Effects
Nightmare Alley
Dune
Finch
Eternals
Shang-Chi
Animated Feature
Encanto
Mitchells vs. the Machines
Luca
Flee
Spirit Untamed
Came home after watching West Side Story. Holy shit. To say it deserves to sweep every major award Best Picture included this year is an understatement and then some. Epic, exhilarating, timeless and utterly heartbreaking, it’s a triumph on every single level and deserves to be a modern classic. Spielberg really achieved the impossible here.
On a sidenote, Rachel Zegler makes one of the most luminous debuts in years singing AND acting brilliantly (looking at you Jennifer Hudson, a brilliant singer but nothing more than a simply adequate actress, in no way deserving of the Oscar she got for Dreamgirls let alone a potential second one with her simply solid turn this year in Respect or a new nomination in a year of so many brilliant female leading performances).
And Ariana Debose. My God. Just hand her every single Best Supporting Actress award already. She’s nothing short of breathtaking making Anita her own and then some.
Can’t wait to see this marvel of a film for a second time.
It really is a wonderful cinematic experience and I’m sad it’s not bringing audiences to the theater. I’m hoping it’s got legs.
It really is indeed and totally, I myself hope it hangs in there and shows legs because its frankly disappointing box office debut couldn’t be more unjust. It’s such, such a beautiful, beautiful gem of a film and a unique cinematic achievement which general audiences can truly enjoy.
Just out of West Side Story. Very surprised how much we both liked it. DeBose would get my supporting actress vote and it’s not close. Holy cow she’s amazing.
Right? I’m speechless. Ariana should sweep every Best Supporting Actress award this year. What a film, my God.
I saw a quote from an Awards Daily film review on a TV spot/trailer and I had so much pride! I was like, “hey that’s my favorite film blog!” As if I knew you all personally. I’ve been reading this blog since high school though so, I have to say, I felt a sense of connection to that moment. Awesome to hear you’re a part of the Critics Choice, and it’s incredible that you have gone from talking about the Oscars to having a role in influencing the race.
I know it’s had the same feeling. It’s weird. I was thinking well done AD
Lol
I shared my initial thoughts on West Side Story only an hour after I had watched it on Friday.
My lack of response to the film surprised me. I spent some time thinking about the reasons. I love referencing Minnelli’s The Bad and the Beautiful. It’s about the director’s job and about how directors should know, instinctively, when to push and emphasise a scene.
I think that Spielberg’s instincts betrayed him here. His natural inclination is toward spectacle, which I think does not work in many scenes in West Side Story. I already mentioned the Maria scene.
Not every scene has to be big and flashy, not every scene has to contain exploding lights and background ornamentics. A director should know when he should step back and let the actors do their job. A director should know when to push for big drama, when to emphasise spectacle, when to pursue a grande gesture, or when to be ironic. Spielberg does not. He’s always after the big flashy spectacle, always after the grande gesture, which might look impressive on film. Yes, it looks good, but it does not feel right. I think the film would have worked better and I would have been willing to suspend disbelief if Spielberg had spent some time enchanting me. But not by his flair for the grande. Nope, I needed the small subtle moments this film simply didn’t know how to give me.
And one final thing: Jerome Robbins (and Robert Wise, maybe) knew how to film the dance numbers for character. The America dance number is all about conflict, this duality of the immigrant experience. And the film, while it is really dated, feels right in some of its lyrical moments. Spielberg does not film numbers for character. He does not work off character. He works for visuals, he works off his love of the possibilities the medium gives him. Which I think is my biggest issue with him. (His America number is big, but it relies very little on character. It’s filmed for effect, not to help tell a story.)
That’s it. My final thoughts on the film. Definitely not bad, its first 20 minutes were actually superb, but far from the original (that I have many issues with). And dramatically, the film is a mess.
I respectfully disagree about West Side Story.
My review is here: https://moviestruck.substack.com/
Wow. Fascinating, I disagree on essentially every point you make. Particularly with your take on “America” which I think absolutely gets at the character of Anita. I’d argue Spielberg charts this characters journey even better than the previous film, with “America” a much needed set up to show her ultimate change toward Bernardo’s viewpoints by the end of the film. The payoff there is sublime and DeBose is just phenomenal here.
Other changes Spielberg made are great and ALL about character: for instance, inserting Tony into “Cool” is all about showing the division that has grown between the ideals of Tony and Riff (and by extension the other sharks). Or giving “Somewhere” to Rita Moreno, as the one character trying to offer guidance and hope for the future finally sees the world crashing down around them.
Film of the year for me so far and I instantly moved it to #1 in my Best Picture predictions. I didnt think a remake could possibly be a BP contender, but I have happily been proved 100% wrong.
You may disagree, but you can spare me the sarcasm.
No sarcasm here! I am just genuinely fascinated when people can have such strong but opposite reactions to a piece of art. If I came off sarcastic or snarky, that was not the intent.
You and I see eye to eye on West Side Story.
My review is here: https://moviestruck.substack.com/
Spielberg and Robbins are very different types of directors and their visions for the film version of this story are very different. What you’re describing as Robbins’ character-based approach I’d argue comes from Robbins making the story into an elemental simple story. The America sequence is very direct and effective, it’s taking the issue and condencing it into a few people dancing on a rooftop. Even if Spielberg takes a different approach, that doesn’t make the approach automatically less character-based. It’s less intimate for sure but just the idea that the character isn’t alone expressing their emotions directly to the viewer doesn’t mean that everything that’s happening can’t be expressing these characters. For example, you’ve mentioned the María sequence before and yes, it’s visually showy but at the same time it’s more interested in expressing how Tony feels in that moment, which if it’s successful (and I’d argue it is) is equally “character-based” as the more intimate number. In fact, you mention Minnelli and he if anyone knew how to make exactly those kinds of sequences (the closing of An American in Paris, certain numbers in Meet Me in St. Louis, the carnival sequence in Some Came Running etc.). And it’s not like Spielberg is that showy within his sequences. The ideas for the numbers are big but his visual language within them gains a lot of strength from a simplicity in the editing rhythms, there’s in my opinion a really calm grace to them that is astonishing to watch these days.
Well well well.. people not JUST it ACTUALLY AN EPIC HISTORICAL YEAR OF CINEMA AND IT PRUDENT TO MOST CERTAINLY GIVE PAUSE TO REFLECT ON THE FOLLOWING AND SEE WHAT MIGHT BEEN SINCE THE FOLLOWING MILESTONES HAS OSCAR EMBRACED SIMILAR BUT NOT EQUAL TO IMPECCABLE UNORGETTABLE, LANDMARK, GAMECHANGING AND INSPIRATION STANDARDS OF FOLLOWING ANNIVERSARIE:
FIRST NOT BEEN MENTIONED IS THE MIGHTY GREATEST FILM IN POST GONE WITH THE WIND/ SOUND OF MUSIC ERA THE LORD OF THE RINGS COMMEMORATES ITS 20TH ANNIVERSARY AS OF TODAY WOW! THE AMBITION, SCALE, SCOPE COMBINED WITH REALISM AND BELIVABILITY USHERED IN NEW BAR RAISING FEAT OF CINEMATIC EXPERIENCE AT BOTH EPIC AND HISTORICAL LEVEL!! NOT MENTION THE MOST COMPLEX TRIPLE BACK TO BACK TO BACK UNPRECEDENTED SHOOTING OF MOST SOPHISTICATED BIG SCREEN ADAPTATION FROM MOST FAMOUS (2ND TO BIBLE ) OF LOTR SOURCE BOOKS OF TOLKIEN HIMSELF..!! LET NOT FORGET THE MOST OSCAR WINS FOR OSCAR CALLIBLE FRANCHISE SINCE THE GODFATHER WITH 17 OSCARS ACROSS 3 FILMS..WITHIN THAT RAISED THE BAR IN CHALLENGES WITH ADAPTED STORY TELLING HOW TO GROUND SENSE OF GRIT AND REALISM TO GO BEYOND JUST BEING A FANTASY ADVENTURE, PRESERVING THE AUTHENTICITY OF THE LEGENDARY BOOKS..RAREST OF EVENT FILM THAT ACHIEVED MORE ANYONE EXPECTED OR HOPED FOR OVERALL UNITED BOTH CRITICS AND AUDIENCES ALIKE EVEN MORE RARE NOWADAYS..
2nd.. JAMES BOND’S 25TH ENTRY!! WITH NO TIME TO DIE MARKING ALSO DANIEL CRAIG’S WITHOUT DOUBT IN MANY PPLES MIND MOST MEMORABLE BOND BEHIND LATE SIR SEAN CONNERY AND ALSO SECOND LONGEST SERVING BOND BEHIND SIR SEAN CONNERY ORIGINAL BOND…THE PENULTIMATE ESPIONAGE EPIC THAT FOUNDED AND SINCE LARGELY OWNED AND DICTATED TRENDS IN OTHER PART INSPIRED ESPIONAGE DRAMAS BUT HAS DELIVERED AND SELDOM OVERALL LET DOWN CRITICS AND AUDIENCES …ALIKE EACH ONE MOSTLY TAKES EFFORT DEEP THOUGHT IN IT WRITING EVEN IT MAIN PERFORMANCES HAS DELIVERED MOST MEMORABLE VILLAINS ON BIG SCREEN AND REALLY EVEN IF NO TIME TO DIE IS NOT BEST IN THE ENTRY 25TH BOND IS ACHIEVEMENT NO FILM FRANCHISE HAS ACHIEVED EACH BOND FILM STANDS IN IT OWN RIGHT MOSTLY AS INCREDIBLY LAYERED COMPLEX ACHIEVEMENT SHOT MORE LOCATIONS THAN U AVERAGE BIG SCREEN FILM..WITH NUMEROUS BIG PLOT KEY MOMENTS PER LOCATION ..SO PUT SIMPLY IT TIME ‘NO TIME TO DIE’ SHOULD BE OSCAR CONTENDER!
3RD WEST SIDE STORY SIXTYTH ANNIVERASRY FROM THE ORIGINAL FILM AND WHAT TIMING FOR BIGGEST INTERNAL HOLLYWOOD GAMBLE BY HOLLYWOOD MOST REVERED SON SIR STEVEN SPIELBERG ON SIXTYETH ANNIVERSARY...NO LESS SPIELBERG BRING TO LIFE HIS RETELLING OF MUSICAL MOTION PICTURE ORIGINAL FILM THAT WAS AS STILL IS TO DAY MOST REPRESENTING OF SHIFTING CULTURAL DYNAMIC THEN IN TIME OF TI RELEASE AS IT IS NOW..TODAY..AND GAMBLE TO RECREATE ADAPT IN PARTS INADVARTENTLY SOME MOST ICONIC UNFORGETTABLE SCENES FROM ORIGINAL FILM CLASSIC BUT TO DO IT WITH CAPACITY OLD FILM DID NOT HAVE NAMELY TO CAST LATINO CHARACTERS WITH LATINO ACTORS ENHANCE AUTHENTIC INTENTIONS THROUGH THIS EPIC RETELLING SIXTY YEARS ON…REMINDS US THAT REVIVALS CAN BE JUSTIFIED ESP WHEN ORIGINAL EARLY 1950’S BROADWAY MUSICAL WAS NOT WHAT ORIGINAL FILM ADAPTED FROM..AND AS SUCH SPIELBERG SAID HIMSELF HE MADE THE CASE COMPELLINGLY AND CRITICS ARE TAKING NOTICE OF A RICHER, VASTER AND MORE REALISTICALLY DEEPER CHARACTERISATION (IF THAT WERE POSSIBLE) THAN ORIGINAL FILM BUT KEYS INTO MORE PHILOSOPHICAL RELEVANCE THROUGH RETELLING THIS INCREDIBLY INSPIRING SOURCE PLAYRIGHT TO CATER TO TODAY’S WORLD..MAKE IT RELEVVANT WIHOUT OVERTLY MDERNISING IT..GOODNESS ME IT BE COMPELLING HOW THIS REBOOT AND RETELLING SIXTY YEARS ON IS REGARDED IN AWARDS SEASON WE COULD BE IN FOR RAREST OF EXEPTION TO THE RULE- RETELLING ONLY AT MOST POSRTIONAL REMAKE BUT OF SIMILAR VISION AT DEEPER LEVEL THAN IT PREDECESSOR COULD WEST SIDE STORY WIN AGAIN SIXTY YEARS ON??
https://screenrant.com/fellowship-ring-20th-anniversary-film-facts-trivia-know/ https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0bd0a41dbd4b495845497c5554113b5169bf073360e38c5832f8ef2735544a07.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c7953d301b62b792b264d6c551da8698c0dd7bf382cb892eeb8d9579deccfca4.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6333eb2c981969a6547a8eb331ff7674ba93984919073b040f42192d92892393.jpg
Just came back from West Side Story, and… this my friends is why we go to the movies.
Already wanna watch it again and bring some family members when I go visit for the holidays.
this my friends is why we go to the movies
Some people go to the movies to eat popcorn. 🙂
Then grab your popcorn bucket and go to the WSS screening 🙂
I will continue to bang the drum for this movie in trying to get people to the theater to see it. I know I’ll be seeing it again next week with a different group of friends.
Will West Side Story be a flop? It opened with 10 million and has a budget of 100 million. That’s before you include the marketing. It might not make its money back. And how will affect its chances at the Oscars?
Well, it’s already made three times what Nomadland made in the US and it’s only been on screens for two days. It will be fine. It will easily win Best Picture.
Bold words mid-December.
You really can’t go by box office, since the Covid pandemic is not over and there is a new variant. We have have many people brainwashed into thinking the vaccine is dangerous.
I do understand the difficulties, but I thought that it would at least make its money back. Isn’t that the minimum requirement?
Well I admit even I underwhelmed by West Side Story debut however Spielberg films when having strong word of mouth win the long game in terms of BO staying power they don’t necessarily have to have mind blowing opening not but I confident West Side Story by end of it run will make back with domestic and worldwide combined much more rhsn it 100m budget it reviews simply too strong for audiences to ignore.
But Covid oy! How it just created unprecedented misalignments btw box office and critical success mad times indeed.
I know j said WSS need make least 60 m wkend but I admit concede it impossible to predict anything . Not just bout pple not being ready for nostalgic musical it fact hardly anything nowadays in cinemas is nostalgic all yr round in cinemas anyway ..
Today’s dominant film goer generation is ambivalent somewhat ignorant to nostalgic films …not entirely their fault.. the modern marketing saturation commercially for hip cool stylish, pple becoming tooooooo used to that nor used to anywhere near enough likes of quality memorable films likeSpielberg West Side Story I wouldn’t despair if I were Spielberg .
Award recognition as contender does translate to BO success if RIGHT films get the buzz..
So you’re entire argument is the CCA matter cause they are a large group of voters and the Globes because… it’s a widely known award? So we are just throwing out the most important factor – there is NO overlap between Oscar voters and these groups? AD truly has jumped the shark. Any award that is not a guild award merely functions to potentially give line of sight to a film, with the big assumption that Academy voters even pay attention.
Period.
I think the important factor here is that they are high profile. They don’t have overlap in terms or voters but all Oscar voters probably see who wins and is nominated for these (unlike, say, NYFCC which Oscar voters probably don’t care about)… So if films are nominated or win here it makes it more likely that Oscar voters watch them…
On top of that there is an aspect to human nature that generally wants to be on the winning team. So, a film winning high profile awards does make people go in wanting to love it and if they do they are probably more likely to vote for it… That doesn’t make it a given that they will love it and if they don’t it probably makes them more likely to be against it (imo that is part of what happened with Boyhood) but it does help a lot in terms of making people select a film that they already like.
I suspect a lot of Oscar voters are at least aware of what wins NYFCC. (And LAFCA and NSFC and maybe even NBR. Probably not the regional critics prizes, although I’m sure a handful of Oscar voters pay attention to those, too.) They’re just too prestigious and long-standing for that not to be the case. And I think it influences, at the very least, which movies they end up watching that they otherwise might not have.
I would say many definitely do but there would be a spectrum where Globes would probably be seen by almost all, you’re right many would probably see NYFCC, some would see NBR and then regional critics are even less.
More than that is how long these things stay on their minds for. Traditionally, Globes being televised meant that voters would see them then think about them for longer so it would have more impact on what screeners they put in than, say, NYFCC which they will probably see, maybe think with one film “I should see that” then not really think about them again.
Yeah, you have a point there. But once they’ve decided to watch something because it won a big award at NYFCC (or LAFCA or NSFC or NBR) the title of that movie probably does stay with them, even if the reason perhaps doesn’t, and they do see it, eventually, when otherwise they might not have. This is probably (one of the reasons) why stats such as winning a big NYFCC award are a lot more useful for predicting Oscar nominations than wins. (Whereas what wins TV awards is a lot more indicative of what will win the Oscar, too. While clearly also, as you say, impacting – even more than the major critics awards – what movies are watched and nominated.)
Strictly a techs question here; there’s been zero talk about The Matrix: Revolutions. Besides its kinda obvious VFX nom, can they get into other tech categories?
Maybe Sound but beyond that I doubt it simply because it’s probably not a conventional enough contender in the design categories, cinematography, editing or score to be included in the conversation almost automatically and it’s probably premiering too late with too little advance Oscar buzz for it to build a narrative to get into those categories.
Saw WWS and am old enough to remember the original – hate to say it but I was a little underwhelmed given the rave reviews. Faist is great and Ariana too but the rest of it is solid good filmmaking but nothing breathtaking. A few of the juxtaposed songs hold their own in their new space. A SOLID B+
I agree.
That’s not surprising. Out of all the big name director, Spielberg is the the risk averse in terms of story telling.
Well, we all remember the original, even though neither of my parents were born yet when they made it. But I agree with your assessment. I was underwhelmed by Spielberg’s version.
West Side Story opened at #1 on FRI with $4.1M. Projected for $11M debut weekend. CinemaScore: A, per boxoffice guru.
Demand for Musicals (IN the movie theater) are at an all-time low + slight COVID resurgence + those who feel like they’ve seen it all before = a slower start. I think word of mouth will help it bounce back over the next 3 weeks or so. But it surely won’t be profitable.
For anyone who follows box office numbers, is that decently good or fairly rubbish?
That number is disappointing!
It’s on the lower end of predictions, like almost everything lately. It should rebound a little with the holiday coming up. But with a $100 budget, it isn’t ideal. I do think it will have quite a good word of mouth.
Boston Online Film Critics:
Picture: TPOD
Director: Campion
Actor: Cumberbatch
Actress: Stewart
Supp. Actor: Smit-McPhee
Supp. Actress: Dunst
Screenplay: TPOD
Ensemble: Licorice Pizza
Score: Dune (Hans Zimmer)
Cinematography: TPOD (Ari Wagner)
Editing: Dune (Joe Walker)
Documentary: Flee
International Feature: The Worst Person in the World
Animated Feature: The Mitchells VS The Machines
Top 10:
1. THE POWER OF THE DOG
2. LICORICE PIZZA
3. THE GREEN KNIGHT
4. DRIVE MY CAR
5. PIG
6. DUNE
7. TITANE
8. THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
9. SPENCER
10. FLEE
Pig over Dune?
Yes !!
Nicolas Cage.. isn’t he like Wesley Snipes, who’s so near-broke he has to take any role offered to him just to get by?
I absolutely love this.
TPOTD’s sweeps with 7 including its first best film. Love it.
Belfast wins 0 and misses top 10.
I found parts of Spencer ridiculous, especially the hallucinations, and parts where she ignores her childrens ‘ feelings.
Why do only women get labelled as camp? Cumberbatch is very campy in Power of the Dog. The chaps, the spurs, the bowl-legged walk. It is effective but also a bit over the top and comical..i.e. Campy.
yep. he’s ultra mannered and that creates unintentional chuckles. unlike camp in HoG, for example, there it’s intentional.
Cumberbatch wasn’t aiming for camp in The Power of the Dog. Jared Leto, on the other hand, that’s camp central.
Apparently you never met real cowboys.
Do “real” cowboys walk around the house at night in spurs and chaps?
‘West Side Story’ and ‘Belfast’ may not be masterpieces (imho.) but they’re the sort of quality spectacle the Academy used to stand for, so it would be a nice return to form to see them win. I’m not predicting anything though, experience has shown us there’s no point in doing so until the guilds have spoken, and even then there’s still room for surprises.
In what way would you say Belfast is a spectacle?
It’s entertaining and accessible, there are a few impressive fight scenes and a fun singing scene, so it’s a spectacle in a broad sense, as opposed to being an obscure artsy or intellectual film. I do think there’s an epicness to it, due to the family being caught in the crossfire of big, dangerous events, and at the same time it’s intimate because we see everything from the POV. of the family, but really what I mean is it was both fun and emotional to watch so that to me, again in a broad sense, qualifies as a form of spectacle.
Apart from entertainment value (which you may be right about, but I don’t think necessarily constitutes a spectacle), I was about to say that it resembles Roma quite a lot, in terms of scope and genre. Both are black-and-white historical domestic family dramas that are small, with perhaps some big events happening in the background. I agree that the two are different, and Belfast may be easier to enjoy or appreciate, but given Roma was talked about as the single film that is farthest from what the Academy would historically award, I don’t quite see how Belfast is a return to the Big, Popular “Movie Movies” of the past.
It may not be “big’ spectacle but it’s heartwarming middlebrow which is clearly in the Academy’s wheelhouse. I don’t know why people said that ‘Roma’ is the farthest from what the Academy would historically award, that sounds like a stretch to me. Was it the B&W? In that case that does not bode well for ‘Belfast’. Or was it more likely (and sadly) because it’s a Mexican film in Spanish language?
Comparisons to ‘Roma’ aside, ‘Belfast’ seems quite Academy-friendly to me, I don’t see anything in it that would make it such an odd choice. I guess I called it a ‘return to form’ because some of the films picked by the Academy in recent years I found dreadfully boring, whereas ‘Belfast’ is a film that somehow makes a grave subject rather fun and entertaining, but of course it’s a very subjective impression and I’d be hard-pressed to define what is or isn’t a standard Oscar movie anyway. Glancing through the list of past winners, there seems to be more variety than we usually give the Academy credit for.
Yeah, but it’s so old-fashioned. Everything I’ve seen in so many other films. It just feels like one cliche after the other. It’s touching in the end, but it’s too familiar, isn’t it? (And Roma was directed by somebody who’s much more versed in the language of cinema than Branagh. It had its truly bold cinematic moments.)
I like old-fashioned. I was taken by the story and went along for the ride. The direction felt distinctive enough for me, at least it felt right to serve the story. I enjoyed the film but did not exactly love it, so I don’t intend to argue about it endlessly and understand it may not be to everyone’s taste.
Comparisons to Roma are obvious, but it’s not like Roma. It looks like Oscars heartming crap. Far from Roma. It looks Oscar bait. It lacks artistry and depth of Roma.
I thought Belfast was mediocre at best. Hardly a “nice return to form” and definitely not a quality spectacle. Certainly fits in with the kind of conventional and accessible films that win.
Belfast explore real emotions and relationships. They are living in a real civil war. The acting is excellent. Are you uncomfortable with emotionally expressive people?
If Zegler wins the M/C Globe I think she would become a clear frontrunner alongside whoever wins Drama actress and I think that could be Lady GaGa,I am still not secure in predicting Kidman,Colman is well liked and is a great guest promoting the film on talk shows and her film has buzz plus Bafta will go for it so she’s probably in,Chastain could make a comeback,Tessa Thompson could surprise us all,Cruz and Stewart’s buzz has died down and hopefully Hudson’s performance nominations stop at the GG’s.
I don’t think Zegler has enough to warrant her becoming the front-runner. I felt as if she was off screen for half the film and I didn’t see much of a character arc. She might be nominated, which I am not convinced of, but I can’t see her winning.
And Stewart’s buzz has not died down. She still has the most critics’ wins at this point.
1. Will Smith
2. Benedict Cumberbatch
3. Andrew Garfield
4. Denzel Washington
5. Leonardo DiCaprio
Cumberbatch is clearly better than Will Smith.
WEST SIDE STORY IS COMING IN FROM THE CLOUDS HERE!!
Suddenly even before box office and yes admittedly it should be least respectable success but rightfully given pedigree of the filmmaker in question helming this incredible and deserved ‘gate crasher’ contender here..it does HAVE TO HAVE respectable box office returns here…
I don’t believe a film with such strong word of mouth and critical appraisal in unison even surpassing the critics ratings of overhyped Power of the Dog which simply HAS TO WIN (though doesnt deserve to by long shot relative to the big competition on multiple fronts IF awards season can regain it sense of appetite for long lost creative inventive inspired filmmaking and really in absense of NO TIME TO DIE WHICH IS AN UTTER DISGRACE HOW LIP SERVICE IS PAID TO MOST ENDURING OF FILMS FOR IT RESPECTIVE GENRE THE GODFATHER NO LESS OF ESPIONAGE ADVENTURE DRAMA AND AWARDS SEASON HAS ALREADY FAILED BY CALLOUS UNJUSTIFIED SIDELINING OF 25TH BOND NO LESS DIRECTED FIRST TIME BY AMERICAN FILMMAKER THAT BIGGEST HIT OF YEAR AND CRITICS LIKE IT BUT I BLAME ONLINE TWITTERATI SAVAGES THEY SIMPLY CANNOT STAND WITH THEIR TOXIC NARROW MINDED INFLUENCE IN AWARDS SEASON SHAMEFULLY FUKING UP REMNANTS WHAT WE VALUE IN AWARDS SEASON THEY CANNOT STAND THEY JUST TOO SICK IN GILLS TO GIVE WORK OF TOTAL VISIONARY AMBITIOUS FICTION YET FROM FILM GROUNDED IN STRONG SENSE OF REALISM IN IT SETTING THEY COULDNT FATHOM NO TIME TO DIE AS BIG TIME CONTENDER WHICH SHOULD BE BLOODY WELL SHOULD BE JUST COS IT NOT BEST REVIEWED F CRAIGS FILMS DOES NOT MEAN CANT BE OSCAR CONTENDER ALREADY CONSIDERABLE FAILURE ON AWARDS SEASONS PART
BUT..IT CAN BE SALVAGED
The Academy, indeed awards season SURELY KNOW that given many within wondered whether the greatest filmmaker of last 4 decades without question whether Spielberg would do a musical..he conquered war dramas, biopics, inventive fiction, comedy, intrigue, crime dramas, hybrid genres, historic / contemporary dramas, childrens movies, so why the FUK not musical? many wondered then he homes in on one story that had potential to resonate in his words to ‘today’s crowd more so than when original film was released in 1961’ and do it by telling this legendary then in time of original playright release in early 1950’s original no less that while original West Side Story film was huge success for it time winninf many oscars i myself up till recently had NO IDEA it as adaptation of SECOND interpretation adapted from original in parts but was not direct translation of authentic playwright from it first original appearance on broadway
Now given Spielberg sought to do what original film adaptsaion could not and given success (arguably overly generous terms of no of oscar wins 1960’s West Side Story had though definitely deserved to win a hanfful inc best picture and acting wins i think smaller handful perhaps in hindsight academy thinking that looking back in light of Spielberg;s adaptation from the ORIGINAL FIRST BROADWAY PLAYRIGHT/ PERFORMANCE that this is in their book a justified historic ‘revision’; ?> yet West Side Story circa 2021 is not revisionist in it entirey – (fact i slam myself in short term over and over for now:P but till point recent as yesterday i truly understand noiw)
Spielberg is telling the tale through incredible music and sound and dance and story way authentically should been told when first West Side Story was released..
A film no less could well be first during a pandemic that could signal to older generation while simultaneously uniting with bums on seats post pandemic here young and old alike in cinemas and Academy amd tje Globes and the Guilds even Critics choice would be utterly negligent to undermine and undervalue the broaderr picture importance of giving this potential masterpiece (frutrtingly in Australia not released till start next year for us- once again awards season hyype i this country as opposed to states….uus poor aussies dont get to see most of films you hype bout seen until after first lot of major nominations in awards season drops where you get see it before lucky buggers u are..grrrrrr!!)
Sasha rightfully talks of films that ‘unify’ rather than ‘divide’ us she is so right Spielberg timing for this epic musical that getting appraisal BEYOND THE ORIGINAL not even i expected that that it has that it story in it original form and paying tribute in some oments inadvatantly to recreating magic of original, it a unique exception to the rule of ‘same film title as original film but more than a remake’ indeed it is..and well dont we all NEED FILMS THAT WE CELEBRATE ENJOY BE IMMERSED IN?
Well? no less than being most nominated amd eventual best pic winner given NO TIME TO DIE BEEN INFORGIVABLY SHOT DOWN by aards season sympathetic easily seduced voters via twitterati..how else do you justify NO TIME TO DIE being killed off? biggest most successful film universally praised critically acclaimed publicly enthused film of year (given let face it West Side Story launch only just beginning in box office i sure it least be respectable though deserves do more than that)…
So in absence of NO TIME TO DIE I getting right behind West Side Story.
WE all should be getting behind inspiring, uplifting and purest telling interpretation on big screen of what was for it time when original film musical was released…first major early post war modern musical post WWII era..now in new times of uncertainty, with Covid there REASON Spielberg has released West Side Story…but nevertheless …the film NEED to have at LEAST in my view a 60- 80 mill opening weekend strong holdovers domestic in the States AND need 120 mill min opening btw major markets worldwide and strong holdovers internationally in follow up weeks to justify it translation from remarkable critical appraisal no less surpasses the brilliant eventful original film in criticasl acclaim and like wow! Hard to believe that even if this film becomes most nominated this somehow turn against West Side Story favour but respectable box office needed..but least it big time player now..
Happened quickly folks shake up this race hasn’t it? what lively way to do it ey? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c7953d301b62b792b264d6c551da8698c0dd7bf382cb892eeb8d9579deccfca4.jpg
Don’t push your own opinions as facts. They are not. According to both RT and Metacritic, The Power of the Dog is more critically acclaimed than West Side Story. For somebody who claims that others are spreading lies, you are way too prone to twist facts to push your agenda.
Errr..what Agenda exactly? That unsubstantiated accusation sorry to say… what does it say somehow suddenly me cheering on mainstream visionary high quality critically acclaimed films ( regardless of marginal differential in level of critical acclaim it negligible difference I stunned u put so much more stock into that. Regardless critics absolutely praised West Side Story with level of enthusiasm they have NOT qithPower of Dog . If thay film so great how is it xplain to be most critics groups so far are going different road? NO cinsensus atm no trend of critics groups getting behind Power of Dog. Or even Belfast for that matter.
But fact I in minority according to some that reflects desperately poorly on state of awards season I wonder do YOU want see silent majority traditional film base appeal reach academy once achieved fail?
You do realise harder only ones have supposed ‘ agenda’ are those within industry who year upon year upon year champion lesser memorable films of bunch nominated well these are now clear present threat to Academys once revered publicly relevance meaning …
You know this how my agenda exactly to back in contenders that one’s have ability to elevate Oscars ratings award season ratings for big tentacle award shows?
You are aware I trust pre last mostly 15 yrs oscarratings irrespective of digital revolution have gone off acliff .
Do you think ratings don’t matter? No they bloody well do cos they did before awards season went overboard with pro- leftist agenda .
My ‘ agenda’ is common sense …what u problem wirh thst ey?
I see people are worried about WSS’s box office potential. I think at this point the masses are sick of remakes, and mostly because they aren’t very good. So when they see a classic like WSS is being remade, I don’t think the urge to go see it is there. BUT, if it is as good as you all are saying it is, then maybe we can expect a word of mouth turnaround. This happened with The Greatest Showman when it came out during the Christmas season. It only made about 12 million it’s opening weekend but once people started talking about it, it only went up every weekend from there. A rare occurrence to be sure. So I guess we will have to wait and see.
I might be in the minority here but I just saw West Side Story and while it has some wonderful moment, I hope it gets nowhere near Best Picture.
I expected more grit, I expected a darker, revisionist version. What I got was Spielberg’s usual bland craftsmanship, but this is such a Hollywood film. There were some inventive moments. I loved it that America started out in the domestic world, I liked the tenderness of Tony and Maria’s first dance, I liked the Anita-Maria moment right after Bernardo’s murder, but cinematically the film went nowhere. Just imagine Tony singing Maria, such a beautiful moment that should feel like an inspired, very tender confession. Spielberg couldn’t resist the temptation of having flashy lights (on a field) or then an old woman feeding pigeons that fly away when Tony passes by. This might be his sensibility, but it robbed me of a wonderful moment of tenderness that could have helped me buy the instant falling in love. I wanted a director who doesn’t want to be center stage at all times with his rather trivial visual tricks.
And above all, I am terribly disappointed by Tony Kushner’s script. We are expected to buy a lot at face value. We are expected to believe that Tony and Maria fall in love at first sight, we are expected that he tells her on the subway that he doesn’t like her, he feels something more (and he only spent five minutes with her), we are expected to buy that they go to that church/museum the next day and exchange secret vows. To me as a modern viewer, it feels just very random. I might be cynical, call me cynical, call me whatever you’d like, but I am a person of my time and I needed this West Side Story to be speaking to me. To make me believe. This version can touch me superficially based on the beauty of the choreography (the first scene was top-notch) and the love story, but this is not a script that would survive even a very friendly attempt at analysis.
In terms of acting: I don’t share the hatred of Ansel’s performance. I found him charming and kinda casual, which suits this Tony just fine. Faist’s Riff needed a couple of scenes to add some more depth and it would have been an Oscar-winning performance (Tony’s remark that Riff had nobody and never had was a wonderful touch.). Bernardo’s aggressiveness and adherence to tradition was the only trait the actor focused on, which in my opinion stripped this character of his devilish charm. While America’s introduction in the domestic environment worked very well, I missed the Anita-Bernardo showdown. (The number was too big and too much about the streets, not the characters. Sorry but I didn’t need to see Anita buy something on credit and sign the papers. This gave me nothing. This gave the character nothing.) In the original, the Anita-Bernardo showdown had its own charismatic tension, which I didn’t get here. Debose, however, was terrific in the early moments. There was this grand theatricality to the character (even when she’s serving her boyfriend breakfast) and I liked her Southern-y, ornamented line deliveries. Zegler is such a beauty and I loved her lyricism. (Anyway, I think that if they had moved I Feel Pretty a bit earlier and not right after Bernardo’s murder, it wouldn’t have felt as unnecessary & random. And I would have liked another scene in the workplace to justify this scene. Why did we need to see the store? Why then, right after Bernardo’s murder?)
Anyway, I liked the witty, confident Maria who was holding her own against her brother in the early scenes. I don’t get it why this was emphasised in the early scenes (and Bernardo kept telling everybody about his bossy sister) when it went nowhere. At some point, they simply dropped. The police station number felt absolutely unjustified and I don’t get what they wanted to achieve with it.
I really can’t forgive Tony Kushner his mechanical script. A lot of the scenes felt random, like Office Krupke. It was fine, the staging was fine, but how did it help the story?!
These are my first thoughts. I’ll sleep on them.
P.S. Rita was really a cameo. And sorry, but once again, I didn’t need the camera to pan away from her reflection (the film was big on reflections) to show her picture with her Gringo husband. She told Tony already. We don’t have to see everything. We get it.
Agree c0mpletely except having s0me0ne else sing arguably the beat s0ng in the sh0w which takes aii the em0ti0n and tragedy away at the end was a h0rrible mistake ! I ‘m curi0us if any0ne else felt the same way . And was it Spielberg 0r Kushner’s idea t0 make that change !
In many ways, the move of I Feel Pretty made me think of Shakespeare’s structure, where Juliet’s girlish monologue follows the deaths at the start of Act 3, highlighting her innocence, yada yada yada…. I thought the museum trip was more jarring.
I agree that Elsort was better than expected. The only performance I would be putting on my ballot would be Moreno though…
Though I didn’t think it was a patch on the original, I did love it, just like I would still love a show on Broadway that had a replacement cast etc…
I’m not saying that I hated it, but a lot of it didn’t make sense. I don’t have much faith in Spielberg but I expected more of Tony Kushner. Dramatically, it was a big mess.
Some counterarguments about the script (I’m not going to get into the directing stuff even if I disagree about the María sequence simply because that image of Tony being engulfed in a ray of glittering and wavering light and the cut from there to him just standing in a small puddle is so strong:
About I Feel Pretty, my main argument here is that it’s always been in that spot and it’s there for a reason in my opinion. Sondheim complained that some of the lyrics of that song were embarrassing in his opinion and I’d fully agree with that opinion if it were not especially placed at that point, as a song by someone who is unaware of the heaviness of the world and of the story in that moment, an innocent girl in love attempting to find the words to express her emotions, as frivolous as they may be. Moving it out of that spot would completely remove this idea from the song and would make it kind of stiff in the structure of its lyrics
I get that Gee, Officer Krupke is not necessarily an essential number but I thought it was well-expressed here, basically pointing out the system that the Jets exist in and the ways in which they attempt to play the system in order to survive, which contrasted with the tearing down of the neighborhood implies that this is not something they can continue doing anymore.
About Moreno and the image, it’s a somewhat cheap solution but at least to me it was a sufficient cue for her to sing Somewhere, without it the choice of having her sing it would have probably felt more unmotivated
And about the “falling in love at first sight” thing, I kind of feel like that’s the premise of the movie. I understand it not working but what really is the alternative here in relation to not only the basic structure of the story but also the film’s main themes? Love at first sight and immediate intense and obsessive love is unrealistic here (although I’d differentiate unrealistic from fake) but as a concept at least to me it felt like a downright necessity for this story. But I’d love to hear if you have ideas about how to move around it
Why does the film has to take place over … what, two days? Why can’t they actually make it a longer period? They have plenty of songs that would have worked better with a longer period.
On Rita’s Somewhere: They could have spared us the story. It would have been clear, of course, but just seeing the picture would have been a much bigger event than both telling and showing.
On I Feel Pretty: I don’t have any idea how this can be fixed. My sole proposal here would be to show Tony going to the meeting, which would create a sense of foreboding. Then we can move to I Feel Pretty, if we have to keep it, then Chino waits outside for Maria, and we have Bernardo’s murder in a flashback. But it’s not something I have given much thought. Anyway, I think it might have worked better.
On Krupke: Yeah, but this has been made perfectly clear by then. I get it, it’s a musical, but I don’t need a point to be made twice.
Ferdinand, I agree with every word you wrote.
This Sunday 12/12 at 12 noon EST my review of West Side Story will be here:
https://moviestruck.substack.com/
I found him charming and kinda casual, which suits Tony just fine.
Tony was in prison b/c he almost beat someone to death and then ultimately kills his lover’s brother. I don’t think “casual” suits his character. 🙂
Don’t Look Up has 92 audience score so that would make it a populist movie. The masses ignored the critics some who work for the clueless media. It should get critics choice comedy nods and Golden Globes comedy/musical nominations. Mark Rylance is frightening as Zuck/Bezos/Musk emotionally stunted tech billionaire. Acting is all around excellent, not quite Oscar nominations. Jonah Hill made me cry for the White House professionals, Merkel, Macron, Christine Lagarde who had to put up with Ivanka, Jared, Don Jr. Eric.
Anonymous audience scores are fakeable.
Don’t look up was full of crap. West Side Story was really good better than excepted.
Are you a climate science denier?
“Don’t Look Up” has been compared to “Idiocracy” by some spanish critic that I trust. I am completely in, already, hopefully it doesn’t disappoint me.
Just saw West Side Story and, I thought it was sensational.
It opens with a bang and only has the rare scene or sequences where I wasn’t as blown away or riveted. Powerful, kinetic, emotional.
The absolute best aspects of the film is the singing and dancing. Everyone impresses. And Spielberg KNOWS how to stage and shoot a musical sequence. Most other filmmakers (in recent history) could only hope to achieve that classic execution of a musical sequence as well as Spielberg did throughout. Though “America” is clearly the centerpiece sequence, I was blown away by just about every musical number. The “Officer Krupke” number had me Lol-ing. And Moreno’s “Somewhere” was extremely touching, as well.
I like the updates to the material; all very timely and improving upon the 1957/61 presentations.
The performers here range from very good to superb. Rachel Zegler wildly impressed me. Her singing is transportive and she is much more emotive that I figured she’d be. Ariana DeBose is a firecracker. Loved her dancing, the looks she gives, etc. That said, she really only brought the acting chops – for me – in that final half hour. I marveled at her dancing early on, but she didn’t register “performance-wise” for me til the end where she really turned up the thespian skills. Rita Moreno is wonderful; I’m so glad she got some meat to chew on in this script. Matt Faist is charismatic as HELL and, I’d love for him to get some awards traction.
And now we come to Ansel Elgort. People. I thought he was stellar and far surpassed my expectations. Not only did his singing impress me, and his agility in the dancing, but I believed his Tony. I believed that he was gaga in love with Maria (and vice-versa) and, I just found him very affecting. Soooo much better than the Tony in the 1961 version. The entire “Tonight” sequence on the fire escape had me swooning for their burgeoning young love.
For me, the best “movie movie” I’ve seen this year. If I were to predict noms at this point:
Picture
Director
DeBose
mayyyybe Moreno
Writing
Editing
Cinematography
Production Design – wow, will give Dune a run for its money
Costumes – another wow
Sound – and will push Dune for the win there, as well
I’d love to see Faist get in there, somehow. But I’m not seeing that materialize as of now.
9/10
Hell yes. Just saw it too. Complete agreement on this.
Just watched it as well. Honestly thought it surpassed the original. I was sublime. As Maria and Tony were falling in love, I was falling with them. My favorite film in the run (of the ones I watched).
If this gets a screenplay nomination, the writers’ branch needs to resign.
I loved Kushner’s adaptation. And so did Stephen Sondheim, who said Kushner has done ”some imaginative and surprising things with the ways the songs are used. … It’s first-rate. Movie musicals are hard to do. And Spielberg and Kushner really nailed it.”
For the record, Kushner got Oscar nominations for his previous two films with Spielberg: ”Lincoln” and ”Munich.” And some pundits are predicting a third for ”West Side Story.” He probably won’t win. Musicals seldom do. The last one to get a Screenplay Oscar was in the ’50s. And the original 1961 ”West Side Story” was up for 11 Oscar nominations, and won every single one of them … except Ernest Lehman for Adapted Screenplay.
I could watch the iconic ”Amer-ica” a dozen times and still pick up extra details
The opening scenes were magnificent too ..what a way to start a movie
I’m surprised that Mike Faist hasn’t been in the awards conversation, but Zegler is? To me, he stuck out the most in this new cast. Everyone, though good to great (except Ansel), was basically 1961 WSS 2.0 in their performances. Faist’s Riff is almost like a reinvention and Faist’s intensity steals the scenes every time. Perhaps because Riff is a white and unlikable character and they have to make room for the Latin cast to get recognition?
Mike Faist was wonderful as Riff. A one time intense, powerhouse of a performance. Zegler was good as Maria. Both should be nominated. Rita Moreno has a supporting part but it’s a minor one as Valentina.
Faist deserves an oscar for that
John, I agree with you 1000% about Ansel Elgort. He’s spectacular and isn’t getting all the credit he deserves. Usually, Tony is the sturdy, straight-arrow good guy, and it’s a thankless part that gets overshadowed by the showier female roles, like Anita and Maria. Tony Kushner’s screenplay invests this Tony with more grit and gravitas by giving him a backstory where he spent prison time for nearly killing a guy. Kushner also gives him more agency, especially in the reimagined ”Cool” number, where Tony tries to wrest away a gun from Riff. Plus, Elgort sings like an angel. But ”West Side Story” rises or falls on its love story, & Zegler and Elgort make a magical couple.
I’m starting to become of the opinion that Kristen Stewart will win Actress by default, with Rachel Zegler being her main challenger. Everyone else seems to get weaker lately, with Ricardos and Gucci unlikely to be big Oscar players otherwise, Hudson currently in need of a miracle, and Cruz is underperforming with critics so far.
Chastain needs her buzz back and could get it with a few upcoming wins and GG/SAG noms. As for Gaga, there seems to be such a force in that rarified Hollywood air that is compelling a nomination for her. She’s either solidly in or far-out and there’s no way to know right now.
Not sure why Chastain and Isaac did not get nominated for Scenes From A Marriage. Glad Margaret Qualley made it. Winslet is a lock.
A Stewart/Kidman/Zegler final three makes sense to me.
Variety just moved Gaga to #1. The narrative of her win is starting to take shape. Kristen was labeled the favorite too early.
Do you think the Academy will be in the mood to award pop star Lady Gaga (not a diss, she’s amazing) the Oscar for Best Actress for a film they don’t particularly like? I have strong doubts about that.
Especially with them giving her an Oscar fairly recently already. Honestly I don’t even think the nomination will happen this time. She is a great singer and a good actress but not “nomination for every role” kinda good especially when the film in question is not great.
No one is saying that she’s getting “a nomination for every role.” That’s your take. She has given two indelible performances that people have responded to, and strongly. That’s not “a nomination for every role.” Give it a break.
She got a nomination for her first film.
Now she is in the running to get a nomination for her second film.
If she gets it that’s 2/2 so literally “nomination for every role” to date.
She got a nomination for her first film.
Now she is in the running to get a nomination for her second film.
If she gets it that’s 2/2 so literally “nomination for every starring role” to date.
Excuse me but we don’t know that yet. It wouldn’t surprise me if the industry likes HoG way more than critics did, and as far as Best Actress is concerned the lack of enthusiasm for a film is not a deterrent to winning.
AFI and NBR misses makes it a tall order even in the industry.
And of course the film being ‘bad’ would not necessarily be a dealbreaker, but Gaga didn’t even come close to winning for the better received and guilds-nominated A Star is Born. I think it would be at least very hard for her to win this time.
If anything Kristen has grown weaker. She won none of the major critics awards, where she should have won considering everyone was expecting her to be a critics darling. Obviously, LA is still to come….she has won some other city critics awards, sure, but they don’t matter so much.
My suspicions and gut feeling all along was that Stewart was a weak contender, and so far the critics have only proven that. If she is gonna be the winner in the end, she needs a SAG nomination, and I’m not convinced she’ll get that.
This category is gonna be the one everyone is gonna be really talking about—because there really isn’t a for sure lock and I’m expecting big surprises on nomination morning and even Oscar night.
So far there’s only *one* major critics awards given out, New York. The other 2 major ones have not yet. And no, NBR isn’t one of them.
On an absolute level, Stewart might have grown weaker – it seems like a BP nomination for Spencer is now pretty tough. But her competition has grown weaker as well. Since Stewart is still in the “frontrunner” position, and with the most “buzzed” and “transformative” performance of the year (she was predicted to win the Oscar ever since her casting was announced, and all the early Spencer reviews placed her in the frontrunner position), she will just end up winning unless someone else comes along and becomes stronger than her. I, at least at the moment, see that less likely now than before. Hence, I think she has grown stronger in relative terms.
I just watched WSS and it was great, the highlight being ”Amer-ica” ..just fantastic!
I have it as my BP winner now
Just saw it yesterday myself. Stupendous.
It chimes with the zeitgeist too
With what zeitgeist, exactly? Gentrification? Racial animus? It’s not exactly contemporary or incisive in (very lightly) examining either. It is Romeo and Juliet dressed up with style and little more. Substance it is not. Showmanship it is.
Here is the real life version .. Google >>>>>Capeman and Umbrella man; New York City fighting gangs
Agreed. I think it will achieve a good 9-10 noms. And if you line this up against Belfast, The Power of the Dog and King Richard … I see a world in which WSS gets a lion’s share of high rankings. But who knows. Very early still.
I think DeBose wins best supporting actress
“Social justice friendly”?!
I am going to procure the very best care for this woman. Money is no object.
I’m a massive Spielberg fan so I’ll be doing WSS tomorrow…but I can’t help but feel that Belfast is playing it’s cards perfectly. Laying low right up until the guilds when it steamrolls the season. I don’t think any other movie besides these two have a shot at best pic at this point.
… at this point (with limited viewings on contenders)…
Guessed winner / Rooting for (realistic chances of nom) / My winner so far.
Picture: Belfast / The Power of the Dog / Bo Burham’s Inside
Director: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog / Bo Burham, Bo Burham’s Inside
Actress: Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos / Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers / Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Actor: Will Smith, King Richard / Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick Boom / Bo Burham, Bo Burham’s Inside
Supporting Actress: Aunjuane Ellis, King Richard / Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog / Laura Gómez-Lacueva, Historias Lamentables (Unfortunate Stories)
Supporting Actor: Ciaran Hinds, Belfast / Robin de Jesús, Tick Tick Boom / Robin de Jesús, Tick Tick Boom
Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog / The Power of the Dog / The Power of the Dog
Original Screenplay: Belfast / Parallel Mothers / Bo Burham’s Inside
Animated: Encanto / The Mitchells vs. the Machines / The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Top 10 (so far)
1. Bo Burham’s Inside
2. Parallel Mothers
3. Historias Lamentables (Unfortunate Stories)
4. The Power of the Dog
5. El Baile de los 41 (Dance of the 41)
6. Héroes, Silencio y Rock&Roll (Heroes, Silence and Rock&Roll)
7. Tick, Tick, Boom
8. Fear Street (triptic)
9. Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
10. Free Guy
(11. Dune, Part I) – I find it odd, as I don’t normally like Spanish films that much, that I have 3 in my top 10 (one, a doc), and also a 4th one in Spanish (a Mexican one). All of them, extremely recommended.
West Side Story opens with a modest $800,000 in Thursday previews, per BoxofficeGuru. Likely $13-14m opening weekend.
I attended yesterday in a nearly empty house. Too bad. I thought it was terrific
WSS had one of the worst promotional rollouts I’ve seen since….In the Heights
13-14M would be great, with the lucrative Holiday weekdays/ weekends around the corner, closely followed by a potentially high-profile awards season in January (Critics Choice, Golden Globe) / February (Oscar nominations), a 13-15M opening could easily turn into a 100M US total just like so many other previous December releases opening in that range.
My fear is that based on that dearevanhansen-esque Thursday number, the OW will be more 8-11M range than the projected 12-17.
I think WSS getting 13-14 mill would be a BIG win for it at this point with several weeks ahead where a lot of people go to the movies. Of course, Spider-Man will dominate by a mile, though.
Sasha keeping Jennifer Hudson in the top 5 lead actresses is just plain delusional. Please explain why I am wrong.
because Hudson’s performance is pure Oscarbait, and in this case, with the blessing of the person portrayed by her (and also raved, even if the film wasn’t the smash critical hit that some hoped). She’s wise to not let go, it’s a bet that can really, really, pay off, as all Hudson needs, is SAG and Globe nominations to be back on track.
But in comparison, I gave up Cruz already, and has her as alternate… she needs BAFTA and Globe to have a shot (she can miss SAG, though, and not be too damaged), but the lack of critic circles support for her and the film… already signals, she’ll be snubbed for her career-best performance…
(don’t flame me for the following comment). Again. Dewey Cox should have killed the hagiographic musical bio-pic for a generation. Yet not only have they not stopped, we’re getting more and more of them.
I love Dewey Cox. Count me in.
I would have double over in laughter if Aretha Franklin had said, “you write good songs, Otis Redding of Stax Records”
whenever possible, check out at the first chance you can, “Héroes: Silencio y Rock&Roll” the Netflix documentary about legendary Spanish Rock band – huge in LatinAmerica, Spain and Germany – Héroes del Silencio. I may sound as spamming, but it gives Metallica’s “Some Kind of Monster” a run for its money and totally deserves to be taken to the screen as an adaptation… jawdropping at several moments. Plus: amazing music. One of the problems for an adaptation, would be to find an actor/singer able to mimic frontman Enrique Bunbury, who has a quite characteristic voice.
Spanish rock has never been in my wheelhouse (I lean towards Tropicalia and the incredible Mali rock bands) but I’ll give it go on your recommendation alone. I’ll let you know what I think!
the doc has the extremely strange virtue of having the whole band metaphorically getting bare in front of the audience, no taboos, admitting all the mistakes, and why it was so short-lived, just when they were looking to expand beyond imagination… it’s odd that they only have four studio albums before they split, when they were bigger than ever. Spoiler: so many people in Spain thinks one of them is quite unbearable… a bit like Almodovar, hahaha.
If only Metallica had stopped, we might have been spared that dire Lou Reed team up
I lost interest in Metallica after Garage, Inc. which was to them, what “The Spaghetti Incident?” was for Guns’n Roses. Only TSI? was 100 times the album, Garage, Inc. was… everything afterwards… I heard a bit and had to stop (on Metallica). GNR’s Chinese Democracy was actually pretty bad, as well.
At least, Héroes del Silencio, never reunited, and the lead, Bunbury, had a successful career on his own, afterwards, but, honestly… a couple of songs aside… nothing that interested me, even half of the work he did with Héroes.
I love Santana and Los Lobos. Carlos is also Jazz.
Well, you tried anyway.
well, I don’t “try” anything. I am no influence. I have fun analyzing the race, I am not even paid or ever tried to live from that (have my work, and this is a way to disconnect from it and every day issues and relax). I am a film lover (and trained as film critic, by the way), and I just give my 2 cents, as anyone else, here, just from my perspective.
I agree regarding Hudson.
The acting awards are unfortunately not usually that creative or bold – I can definitely see Hudson making the top 5. I just watched The Nightingale – and continue to be shocked at how wrong the Oscars got it that year. How Aquafina (The Farewell), Florence Pugh (Midsommar), and now, especially, Aisling Franciosi (The Nightingale) didn’t make it in over the actresses nominated that year … no shade to Zellweger, Theron (whom I adore), and Johansson (ditto), but, I mean, come on. Franciosi was on a league of her own. Of course this is the same academy that snubbed Daniela Vega for A Fantastic Woman, one of the single best performances of the past decade, so no big surprise there. I’d personally have added Noemi Merlant (Portrait of a Lady on Fire) and Ana de Armas (Knives Out) to my quintet – and I think all five performances would have been better than all the ones nominated. All this to say – I think Hudson gets in.
Well, you tried anyway
Actually – I just remembered Jang Hye-jin’s (and everyone else from Parasite) snubs. Her role as the mother Chung-Sook could almost be considered supporting, but dang, how did not a single one of the actors make it in? She would have been in my top 5 for sure.
For all of the grousing in some quarters, yeah the ACTING in Parasite was off the chain good. That’s about as perfect an Oscar winner as No Country was. Frankly, in many ways Parasite reminds me of top tier Coen Brothers films.
The most deserved win of SAG Ensemble EVER. For some reason, I sem to think foreign films have the best acting performances, especially Asian films.
Ever watch Wong Kar-Wei films in his golden period before 2046 derailed him. Pure Tony Leung power!
No, I’ll check hi out.
This is so masterful
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypY9OaKCfRU
Chunking Express is a good one to start with and then In the Mood for Love (absolute masterpiece). 2046 is a beautiful but impossible to understand, Ashes of Time more so. Tony Leung is lead in all of those.
Days of Being Wild is a slow burner but packs a punch at the end.
In the Mood For Love? I do know that film very well. It’s an absolut masterpiece. I am not good with names so apologies to everyone.
The really famous shot from Chungking Express
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLpnleQbsHY
How did 2046 derail him? It might be his best movie
The production costs exploded because he kept tinkering and then he submitted an unfinished cut in a disastrous Cannes screening.
I think in the Mood for Love is better
I hear it’s a great feature-length digital video for fans of that medium.
Oh, enough.
It won the Oscar for best picture. That should count for something.
I thought the actress who played the daughter was great, but I’m probably biased because she was my favourite character in the film. They pushed to the background in the second half of the film, as was intended and then they killed her. Anyway, the guy who played the father was the most deserving of a nomination. He had the best arc and the scenes were edited in his favour.
Yes – Song Kang-Ho (the father) should have easily been in contention for the win. In addition to him and Jang I would have also added Lee Jung-eun (the house maid) – the three were, to me, no-brainer nominations. The daughter was also great, as was the wealthy mother of the Park family, who was just so funny. I mean, the whole cast was just great.
The mother had the least to do, but she had the most consequential scenes in the film. Her kick was the worst part of the film, for me. It was totally unexpected and unnecessary. I still can’t understand it.
I think we might have had this conversation when the movie came out. That was singularly the best part of the entire movie for me
Did we? Why is it the best part for you? For it’s very odd to just kick some down the stairs. Worse still when you don’t show remorse or regret. That’s one of the reasons I don’t love it as much as I want to.
Because the house keeper had them on video exposing them as a family!
And at that point they Kims had already gone in too deep – what would
the Parks have done to the Kims if they found out that they’d locked up
these two people in their basement upon their arrival?
I understand the motivation, to a certain extent. But the problem is that there was no regret whatsoever from the mother. I understand the son’s actions because the the fil seems to foreshadow it and he is a hothead and also seems to be fixated on the “lucky ” rock. I think even the fathers actions are a bit overr the top, but it’s understandable as the film seems to set up finally with lots of closeups of the the father’s reactions to thee insults by the rich father.
I think there’s also the implication that they’ve been grifters for a while, but eventually screw up, thus their awful apartment.
Yes, they aren’t a good people as it turns out, except the daughter of course. She has a lot of redeeming features. That’s why she was the one who was killed. Also, the rich people might awful people, but at least they are not killers. Maybe that’s why the film says that rich are nice because they are rich. Now come to think of it, it was the mother who said that. Oh,it makes perfect sense!
Yes – I think you sum it up perfectly with that line. A whole lot of the movie in a nutshell. And Chung-sook’s appallingly violent action – directed against someone else who is alongside her on the bottom rung of the ladder – helps make that line so poignant.
The daughter was about to a peace offering to the first maid and her husband until she was interrupted by the rich woman. Her then did the unthinkable and then everything turned upside down. Her actions only make sense in that context I mentioned.
Theron played an emotionally stunted racist. Awkwafina was much more moving.
If you look at the last two years, it does make sense. Both Andra Day and Cynthia Erivo had been underestimated all season long because while they had very baity biopic roles and delivered acclaimed performances, their films didn’t get that much good ink. Respect is the same vibe this year. The nomination is not guaranteed but she is definitely not out of the realm of (strong) possibilities. I don’t have her in my top5 at the moment but the second she scores a SAG nod, she will be.
Thanks for responding. I truly appreciate the effort.
I think Hudson fares a good chance because her film was seen more widely than many other contenders. And I think she will get GG/SAG. But there sure are a ton of contenders that could knock her out.
GG yes. There are 10 nominees. Even I might get a nod. I was speaking of Oscars. My apologies. I thought that was the topic. I’ll do better.
H0rrible decisi0n t0 d0 away with the duet 0f Maria and T0ny d0ing S0mewhere and giving the s0ng t0 Rita M0ren0 t0 enlarge her part was just plain wr0ng and hurt the emotion and tragedy 0f the end !
They didn’t sing it in the original stage version. I thought Moreno’s version was lovely and one of the emotional high points of the film.
That s0ng is ab0ut T0ny and Maria n0t Valentina
It was 0scar bait !
In the original stage show they did the “Somewhere” ballet. A woman off stage sang the song during that sequence. They gave it to Tony and Maria in the 1961 film. As a huge fan of the musical, I thought giving it to Valentina was an inspired choice (as was Moreno’s entire character).
Agree t0 disagree .It w0rks f0r y0u . It d0eswn’t w0rk f0r me !
I did not know that. Thank you for that bit of information. Though the Moreno scene is wonderful, I did miss the Maria/Tony. but now that I know the stage version wasn’t as such, it goes down easier.
They sh0uld have left it the way it was ! Spielberg and Kushner stumbled badly 0n the dism0unt !
If Spirit Untamed gets in and Raya and the Last Dragon (or even Sing 2) are left out, there is truly something wrong…
PGA Documentary Nominees:
Ascension (MTV Documentary Films)
The First Wave (NatGeo)
Flee (Neon)
In The Same Breath (HBO Documentary Films)
The Rescue (NatGeo)
Simple As Water (HBO Documentary Films)
Summer Of Soul (…Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (Searchlight Pictures)
Writing With Fire (Music Box Films)
Summer of Soul and Flee have been getting wins. I really loved The Rescue.
I get so confused with Sasha’s predictions. First she breaks things out in tiers and nowhere on those tiers are either of Ridley Scott’s movies. Then she gets to predictions and has those two as alternates to make the top ten…but NOT a movie like Macbeth which she said is clearly in a tier.
I think the tragedy of Macbeth will be in the lineup for best picture. It has a 98 percent on rt.com
The HFPA issues went wayyyyyy beyond diversity or inclusion. Publicists simply got fed up with the favoritism and outright corruption of the organization. This was not a deeply held secret. It came to a head when several film teams complained that the organization was refusing to schedule screenings and press conferences with the HFPA members.
If you’ve never blocked anyone on Twitter or Disqus, then you can pat yourself on the back for not participating in blacklists.