Both Will Smith in King Richard and Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog have given the best performances of their careers this year. Both are tipped towards winning the Oscar, though Will Smith seems to have the mojo, at least for now. There is still much we don’t know about the Oscar race this year, since voting doesn’t even start until the end of January.
What Benedict Cumberbatch has heading in is Best Picture heat. Best Picture and Best Actor are probably the closest relationship in the Oscar race, or certainly right up there with Screenplay and Director. The trend we’ve been seeing in the era of the preferential ballot is that Best Actor and Best Picture do not match. The reason for this is that with more Best Picture contenders, voters seem to prefer to spread the big awards around rather than give them to one movie.
Will Smith as King Richard is funny, vulnerable, deeply moving. This is a compassionate portrayal of a man whose dreams for his own daughters were bigger than his own dreams for himself. What is astonishing about him as a person is that he might not have been college-educated, he might not have been a member of the upper crust of society, and he might have been a black man raising a family in a rough part of Los Angeles — but there was never a second in his life that he felt like any of that should hold either his daughters or himself back.
It’s hard to watch King Richard and not fall hard for Will Smith and this character. Because of that, it’s hard to imagine him not winning. The film also seems like a strong contender for Best Picture. The box office heat wasn’t quite what most of us expected. People are not turning out to the movies, or at least not the people who would be primed to see the prestige pics from this time of year. But we have to assume King Richard is one of the strongest Best Picture five.
https://youtu.be/EpuImNBJXTE
That same kind of emotional pull is most definitely involved when watching Peter Dinklage as Cyrano. First off, Dinklage is just brilliant as an actor and finds so much humor and sweetness in his portrayal of the iconic character whose physical appearance might make him feel unworthy for Roxanne (the excellent Haley Bennett). You know where the story is going. You know how it ends. You know you’re watching something that is about to break your heart, but Dinklage earns your love regardless. He would be the frontrunner if he wasn’t competing with Will Smith and Benedict Cumberbatch.
Cumberbatch’s performance was so powerful, I was haunted by it the entire night after I first saw the film. It is such a surprising, mysterious performance that you really can’t figure out throughout the whole film. He keeps you guessing what his intentions are. Sometimes he seems outright cruel. Sometimes he seems delicate and vulnerable. He is a masterful actor who can shapeshift into people very unlike himself, as he does here. Cumberbatch gives certainly one of the most memorable performances of the year, and the strength of The Power of the Dog overall helps him become a formidable challenger to Smith.
Those are the top three, at least for the win. When it comes to nominations, we have two more open slots.
The fourth has to be Denzel Washington as Macbeth in Joel Coen’s moody rendition of the Shakespeare play. As one of our finest actors, Washington delivers. We’re probably not looking at a win only because of the opaque nature of Shakespeare itself. It’s a mouthful of words — brilliant though they may be — that is sometimes hard to connect with emotionally. Either way, this will be Denzel Washington’s sixth nomination, which will likely make him the most nominated black actor in Oscar history.
That leaves one open spot. The contenders seem to be Andrew Garfield for tick, tick… Boom!, Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos, Bradley Cooper in Nightmare Alley, and Nicolas Cage in Pig. It feels like Garfield has the edge, based on the emotional reaction to the movie. It connects with actors. But then so does Bardem in Being the Ricardos. Cage has a strong advocacy group behind him pushing for recognition. Sometimes that works, sometimes it doesn’t. Finally, Leonardo DiCaprio in Don’t Look Up has, at least for now, Best Picture heat.
So now let’s look at the Best Actor/Best Picture connection, which we’ve done before — but what the hell, let’s do it again. How about we go back 30 years to look at the difference the expanded ballot can make.
1990 — Dances with Wolves
Jeremy Irons, Reversal of Fortune
Kevin Costner, Dances With Wolves
Robert De Niro, Awakenings
Gerard Depardieu, Cyrano de Bergerac
Richard Harris, The Field
1991 — The Silence of the Lambs
Anthony Hopkins, The Silence of the Lambs
Warren Beatty, Bugsy
Robert De Niro, Cape Fear
Nick Nolte, The Prince of Tides
Robin Williams, The Fisher King
1992 — Unforgiven
Al Pacino, Scent of a Woman
Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven
Steven Rea, The Crying Game
Robert Downey, Jr., Chaplin
Denzel Washington, Malcolm X
1993 — Schindler’s List
Tom Hanks, Philadelphia
Liam Neeson, Schindler’s List
Anthony Hopkins, The Remains of the Day
Daniel Day-Lewis, In the Name of the Father
Laurence Fishburne, What’s Love Got to do With It
1994 — Forrest Gump
Tom Hanks, Forrest Gump
John Travolta, Pulp Fiction
Morgan Freeman, The Shawshank Redemption
Paul Newman, Nobody’s Fool
Nigel Hawthorne, The Madness of King George
1995 — Braveheart
Nicolas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas
Richard Dreyfuss, Mr. Holland’s Opus
Anthony Hopkins, Nixon
Sean Penn, Dead Man Walking
Massimo Troisi, Il Postino
1996 — The English Patient
Geoffrey Rush, Shine
Tom Cruise, Jerry Maguire
Ralph Fiennes, The English Patient
Woody Harrelson, The People vs. Larry Flynt
Billy Bob Thornton, Sling Blade
1997 — Titanic
Jack Nicholson, As Good as It Gets
Matt Damon, Good Will Hunting
Robert Duvall, The Apostle
Peter Fonda, Ulee’s Gold
Dustin Hoffman, Wag the Dog
1998 — Shakespeare in Love
Roberto Benigni, Life Is Beautiful
Tom Hanks, Saving Private Ryan
Ian McKellen, Gods and Monsters
Nick Nolte, Affliction
Edward Norton, American History X
1999 — American Beauty
Kevin Spacey, American Beauty
Russell Crowe, The Insider
Richard Farnsworth, The Straight Story
Sean Penn, Sweet and Lowdown
Denzel Washington, The Hurricane
2000 — Gladiator
Russell Crowe, Gladiator
Javier Bardem, Before Night Falls
Tom Hanks, Cast Away
Ed Harris, Pollock
Geoffrey Rush, Quills
2001 — A Beautiful Mind
Denzel Washington, Training Day
Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind
Sean Penn, I Am Sam
Will Smith, Ali
Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom
2002 — Chicago
Adrien Brody, The Pianist
Nicolas Cage, Adaptation
Michael Caine, The Quiet American
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt
2003 — The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Sean Penn, Mystic River
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Jude Law, Cold Mountain
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
2004 — Million Dollar Baby
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
2005 — Crash
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck
2006 — The Departed
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O’Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
2007 — No Country for Old Men
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
2008 — Slumdog Millionaire
Sean Penn, Milk
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
2009 — The Hurt Locker
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
2010 — The King’s Speech
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
James Franco, 127 Hours
2011 — The Artist
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Demián Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
2012 – Argo
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
2013 — 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
2014 — Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
2015 — Spotlight
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
2016 — Moonlight
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
2017 — The Shape of Water
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
2018 — Green Book
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
2019 — Parasite
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
2020 — Nomadland
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman (posthumous), Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
So obviously, having more Best Picture nominees means one or two more Best Actor nominees from those films, but it isn’t always the case that all five are Best Picture nominees. So I would expect at least three to be from Best Picture nominees. We know that at least Will Smith and Benedict Cumberbatch’s films will be Best Picture contenders. So of the ones that are left, which are the more likely to have Best Picture nominations?
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Given everything we’ve just looked at, I think there is a high probability that one of the names in the three open slots is probably going to be Bradley Cooper in Nightmare Alley since it has the best shot of these to make it into Best Picture. Then you would have three names vying for the remaining slot: Garfield, Washington, Dinklage.
This is just a guess, obviously. We have a long way to go yet. But when watching Best Actor, watch Best Picture.
1. Will Smith
2. Benedict Cumberbatch
3. Andrew Garfield
4. Denzel Washington
5. Leonardo DiCaprio
Don’t Look Up seems to be the type of movie hated by critics, but eaten up by industry folks and general audiences, so doubt LDC taking the fifth spot at your own peril.
Wins so far:
BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch (10) – AFCC, BOFCA, CFCA, NYFCC, NYFCO, PCA, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SEFCA
Nicolas Cage (2) – LVFCS, UFCA
Will Smith (2) – NBR, WFCC
Adeel Akhtar – BIFA
John Arcilla – VENICE
Peter Dinklage – DFCS
Frankie Faison – GOTHAM
Andrew Garfield – WAFCA
Anthony Hopkins – EFA
Caleb Landry Jones – CANNES
Hidetoshi Nishijima – BSFC
Simon Rex – LAFCA
Benedict being in Spider-Man will help too, I’d say.
Glenn close suffered from the not being well liked issue didn’t she? Does it apply to Smith?
Spiderman: No Way Home earns estimated $50m in Thursday previews, (all-time Thursday record – $50,013,859 , Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith, 5/19/2005). 3rd biggest pre-release day ever behind Avengers: Endgame ($60m) and SW: The Force Awakens ($57m). Boxoffice Guru projecting opening weekend between $200-225m.
https: // comicbook. com /marvel /news / spider-man-no-way-home-thursday-box-office-shatters-records/
Is that 50m on Thursday alone? Damn, that’s pretty big.
And yet no BP nom
You are going to hear some people here say that the Oscars snubbing Spider-man: No Way Home for Best Picture is giving the middle finger to mainstream and middle America and that it will spell the RUIN of the Oscars!
I hate those people.
Not me.
You DO hate Middle America though, based on the many hours a day you spend trolling on right wing websites lol
I like to consider myself to be the perfect movie fan in the sense that I love films like the MCU (having been a superhero fan since I can remember), but I also love the Oscar season films as much or more… I love when a mainstream hit film gets in for BP like JOKER for example, but even I thought the BP nod for BLACK PANTHER was rather laughable.
Next time someone says this, ask them who won the most recent People’s Choice Awards and what their ratings were.
Let me just mention Filippo Scotti in The Hand of God. That’s the definition of a breakout and is one of the year’s best performances!
“this will be Denzel Washington’s sixth nomination, which will likely make him the most nominated black actor in Oscar history.”
This is interesting to me because in fact Denzel has already been nominated for more acting oscars than any other black actor in history by far with 8 nominations incl 2 supporting. Viola Davis with 4 comes closest. If Denzel gets a best actor nom for Macbeth, he’ll have 7 lead, only the 8th male to achieve this. Only 4 females have gotten this many – Streep, Hepburn Bette Davis & Greer Garson.
Only 14 actors (male & female) have 8 or more nominations. Denzel is one of them.
In 2018, Denzel and Daniel Day Lewis became the 10th & 11th males to have 6 or more lead acting nominations. By comparison, only 8 women have 6 or more lead acting noms. Sissy Spacek was the most recent to achieve this, 20 years ago.
Morgan Freeman has five nominations.
Good catch!
I think you should recount to amount of leadin actor noms that Denzel has…. Malcolm X, The Hurricane, Training Day, Flight, Fences, and Roman Israel. This would be his seven. Total of nine with the two supporting nominations.
One for producing Fences also
How exactly does Smith lead? Hm, I didn’t know people won Oscars for:
1. delivering mediocre work;
2. being overshadowed by virtually all his co-stars;
But maybe they do. And stop with the Sandra Bullock comparisons. Bullock, while mediocre in The Blind Side, had her moment because she had been everybody’s best friend for years and years and years. Smith is not in a similar position.
I think this will be up to Cumberbatch and Garfield. I’m fine with that. I don’t buy Denzel for a very simple reason: it’s Shakespeare and filmmakers don’t respond to Shakespearean turns. And Denzel’s film has been underperforming to a degree that’s almost ridiculous given the filmmakers’ stature, the critical adoration, and the film’s quality.
That list of two qualities describes most of the best actor winners of recent years in my opinion.
I just wanted to post this.
Well, no matter what I think of many of the recent winners in the category, I can’t find anybody whose work is on the same (low) level as Smith’s.
Of course it matters, you’re rating Smith in relation to the others.
I’d rank the previous 10 performances that won best actor and Will Smith’s performance in King Richard as follows:
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
2. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
3. Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
4. Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
[Will Smith (King Richard)]
5. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
6. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
8. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
9. Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
10. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Smith’s performance in King Richard isn’t anything more than solid and I don’t think he should win best actor but they could go and have gone much lower
Well, no matter what I think of many of the recent winners in the category, I can’t find anybody whose work is on the same (low) level as Smith’s.
It’s funny you say that, because I was also more interested in anything Ellis, the two fabulous actresses who played Venus & Serena, and Bernthal throughout the film more than anything Will Smith was doing. Smith was very good, but kind of faded when the other actors took center stage in any given scene. I don’t mean to speak poorly of Smith, he IS very good. But usually Best Actor winners tend to dominate the film. I dunno, just my feeling.
A welcome back Nicolas Cage nod is hopefully coming.
Is it just me or is this the least exciting category of the year?
It’s only because it already seems the most locked out of the 4 IMO at least.
Andrew Garfield for the win!
-> me sitting at home with an Omicron infection involving a very bad sore throat and a cough
-> Sasha asks a question on Twitter about vaccine effectiveness against Omicron
-> I try to give a fairly objective reply based on the current assessment by scientists
-> some guy replies to me saying omicron is just “mild muscle ache” and accuses me of being a bot
-> Sasha likes the guy’s reply
I guess that ends my short-lived endeavour of trying to interact with AD folks on Twitter. I’ll stick to the comments section.
Twitter is truly toxic – I wish you a speedy recovery!
Thanks very much 😀
Sorry to hear about your condition. Hope you feel better soon.
Which region/area do you live in?
I’m in London, England. Pretty nasty Omicron epicenter these days.
That’s what I’ve heard.
Something to look forward to when you’re recovered… From what I’ve read, if you’re vaccinated and an infection broke through, you would be the most immune to Covid in the future.
Look on the positive side I guess. 🙂
Yes, I’m actually quite hyped about becoming hyper-protected, especially against Omicron too. Much more comfortable going to a New Year’s gathering knowing I can’t get it there and then transmit it to others.
Get better soon!
Thank you!
Nice, huh?
Because, you know … Twitter.
Expecting to have a positive non-toxic interaction with people in Twitter is like planting Lima beans in your front yard and expecting to grow a beanstalk
Jeez. So Sasha is one of those anti-vaxxers too? Talk about the ignorant Twitter Universe disconnected from the American public. The people who despise Twitter group-think channeling the very same attitude they claim to denigrate article after article after article after article. America should be less concerned about saving the Oscars than saving itself.
The funniest bit was that the guy’s bio read “I’ll block anti-vaxxers” or something.
Anti-cancel culturalists are so often the biggest fans of cancelling people.
You brought up science in a discussion about COVID? Stop bullying people with your wokeness, Stalin!
What else should one bring up in a discussion about Covid apart from Science? Politics, magnets and the destruction of human DNAs?
Feelings, of course! Haven’t you read any of Sasha’s articles? Whether we’re discussing COVID, the natural world in general, public policy, art, censorship, movie awards, etc., what matters most is how the people who have declared themselves Real Americans feel about what’s happening.
Wish u a quick recovery!
Thank you very much!
I’ve never been a fan of Will Smith. That said, I loved every second of him in this movie. It is his year. Will win, should def win.
For the win…
1. Smith
.
.
.
.
.
2. Garfield
3. Dinklage
4. Cumberbatch
5. anyone else
Nope. Pundits will start singing another tune in January.
probably. But I am not forecasting, I am making a snapshot of what the situation seems to be right now
Sorry, but I don’t think it’s particularly valid. Smith’s film premiered several weeks ago and he’s already lost a lot of steam. There are a lot of voices out there that are quite critical of the performance. Smith won one major award – the NBR, while Cumberbatch has won some 10 critics’ awards so far. I think it’s not even remotely a landslide for Smith at the moment. He’s already far behind. What I meant was that pundits are sticking with their initial expectations/predictions, even though Smith is already turning into a has-been contender.
Garfield is slowly but surely overtaking Smith. I think by the time the ceremony gets closer it’ll be Garfield as the crowdpleasing pick vs the critics pic Cumberbatch with the former taking it.
Denzel Washington has earned 8 acting nominations and 2 Oscar wins at the Academy Awards. And he could be picking his 9th nomination for ”The Tragedy of Macbeth.” … By contrast, the BAFTAs have NEVER nominated Denzel in their history. Could ”Macbeth” be the movie that breaks the curse?
It’s honestly so weird that he’s never been nominated for a BAFTA. Even a British film like Cry Freedom, which got a boatload of nominations, gave a Best Supporting Actor nod to John Thaw, even though Washington gets the Oscar and Globe nominations.
Maybe they considered him lead, where he belongs.
Hmm. It could. BAFTA doesn’t feel connected with the African-American (especially) male experience coming from African-American male artists. With MacBeth he’s doing Shakespeare. That might be considered high brow and worth their time to tick the box. The buggers!
Okay, no more posh boys winning all the big awards. It seems like it’s just so easy for them. Benedict hasn’t done it for me outside Sherlock. I understand people who love Potd will give him some love, but that doesn’t mean he should win. BAFTA is home biased and they tend not to agree with SAG and that discrepancy is hard to explain. But there’s an obvious pattern. I hope the Academy corrects it this year and goes with the SAG winner. How about rewarding films that tell different stories than the usual winners? I think the posh boys have had their fill.
He had great turn in Patrick Melrose, The Courier, The Mauritanian, The Current War (a good but unlucky movie, sadly) and The Imitation Game that made him earn his first Oscar nomination. He is much more than Sherlock.
“Posh boys”? Is that a joke? Judge the performance. Nothing more, nothing less.
‘Judging the performance’ is not something that is politically correct in the US. They judge skin color and genitalia. Acting skill has nothing to do with acting awards anymore. That is why most people in the US have stopped watching these exercises in hypocrisy and the ever sinking ratings reflect that.
That is surely why Sir Anthony Hopkins, famous queer person of colour, beat Chadwick Boseman last year.
Why be so hyperbolic? Obviously performance matters.
Performances beat narratives last time, at least in the lead categories. No reason why they could do it again these season.
Will Smith and the accent that comes and goes….
On the other hand, I didn’t find Benedict Cumberbatch’s American cowboy accent convincing in ”The Power of the Dog.” It came off too studied and deliberate, as if he were trying too hard.
If studied and deliberate is your biggest criticism, but you’re willing to overlook Smith’s ridiculous accent attempt and mediocre performance… so be it. I’ll take Cumberbatch’s studied accent any day.
Not as bad as in AFTER EARTH at least lol
At this point, it does look very much like Will vs Benedict with Andrew Garfield close behind and the other two spots up for grabs.
And I really wish more attention was paid to Simon Rex for that genius performance in Red Rocket.
Rex was really something else in that movie!
Maybe Garfield can pull an Adrien Brody this year?
I think that if Macbeth pulls a surprise best picture nomination (because at this point I think it’s the only way it’ll get in, sadly), Washington takes home Best Actor trophy #3.
but if I were to put money on any of these actors, it would be on Cumberbatch. he seems to be the more likely of the 5 presumed nominees (Cumberbatch, Smith, Dinklage, Washington and Garfield). he has gravitas, a great role in a (probably) BP nominated picure, is British, and seems like a very nice person in interviews. all these things will play in his favor during campain.
I still don’t see Smith happening. people keep comparing him to Bullock, but to me his narrative has Eddie Murphy written all over it, and his recent biography is his Norbit.
but of course, if Smith wins BAFTA, I will eat my words.
100%
“His recent biography is his Norbit” …lmaooo
This is a fanboy’s take. Unless the race is all over the place, Denzel will need a lot to overcome Cumberbatch, who is in a film that’s going for the actual win in best picture, and a performance that has so far won the lion’s share of critics’ awards. Plus Denzel’s film has been underperforming. Underperforming is actually too weak a word for its current performance. A surprise best picture nomination would push him over the edge just like a surprise best actress nod worked wonders for Roma or a surprise best picture nod helped Max von Sydow win over Plummer.
I’ve never claimed to be other than a fanboy (“fangirl”, actually), and I didn’t speculate his prospects as a done deal. Washington would have a lot to overcome to be the de facto winner this year: Macbeth needs a surprise BP nom, at least one (or two) surprise top-tier category nom (McDormand, Coen, Hunter, editing), and a nod for Production Design wouldn’t hurt him either. and also, he needs a BAFTA nom; you know, the one he’s never had in his life up until now. then, if all of this happens, I can see him taking Best Actor. so really, a lot of things have to happen at once for him to take it, many of which are almost insurmountable.
that’s why I said in my original post (if you want to check that again it’s above your reply) that the smart money now is on Cumberbatch, who as I see now, has it in the bag. more than in the bag: he has Occam’s Razor by his side, and the one with OR is always the favorite to win the Oscar in my book, at least 19 times out of 20.
The Occam’s Razor take on Denzel and the Best Picture nod would be: You need only a few first place votes to get into best picture, especially in a field of ten. You need much more to win best actor, especially given that it’s a plurality win.
Everything else is wishful thinking.
1. Will Smith
2. Benedict Cumberbatch
3. Andrew Garfield
4. Denzel Washington
5. Leonardo DiCaprio
I guess I should should watch Power of the Dog again (maybe). Cumberbatch’s brilliance in the role completely eluded me when I watched. I don’t get it.
Honestly, it’s a film that really pays off multiple viewings. There are a few performances in that film that didn’t land for me, but seeing it again made them click.
Perhaps I should watch it again. Found Dunst amazing and was somewhat impressed by Cumberbatch (I have some problems with his characters but I guess it was more of a direction/screenplay problem than of his actual performance), but KSM didn’t do it for me. Thought it was an okay performance but if I had to pick one supporting actor from TPOTD it would actually be Plemons.
Dunst gives the best performance in the movie by far ! the other people are all archetypes The others were all acting . She was real !
If Will Smith wins, his win will be remembered in how Bullocks win is remembered—not too fondly. It’s a weak performance, and he does nothing special. Honestly, I’m surprised that we are talking about this film being a contender in any of the Oscar categories—It was good for what it was, but wasn’t anything exceptional. I feel similarly about KStew—but at least her film had style and beautiful creative elements—even though I don’t like it or her performance—I can still say the sum of its parts were still great.
King Richard—weak acting, weak film, weak writing, weak directing—if we are talking about it for Oscars. If we are talking about it outside of the Oscars—your average person will enjoy it and think it’s good if not great—Just like The Blind Side. Conventional popcorn movie.
In the end, I do not see Smith or Stewart winning. I would be shocked if they did. Of course, that’s just my opinion.
I think Bullock’s nomination for Gravity took away some of the conflicted feelings about the initial win. Multiple nominations have a tendency to elevate actors’ reps. See Hill, Jonah.
Will Smith has already been nominated twice, and my conflicted feelings persist.
There’s something completely dishonest in the scene with Cumberbatch and that scarf (you know the one, in his hiding spot in the woods) I found it sensual and even erotic while watching it, but when it was all over I felt like I had just finished an Italian Perfume Commercial. I don’t know of any guy, gay or otherwise, who would turn the memory into such a ritual. They’d just beat off into the high grasses. It’s filmmaking excess personified.
Not seen Will Smith (I don’t do biopics, I find them profoundly boring and usually dishonest) but I think the winner might be Andrew Garfield, a surprise win at SAG could propel his victory (as will a Best Ensemble nomination) He’s clawed his way into the race based on his performance alone, no one really thought of him before the film was released (and, frankly, not even a couple of weeks after) but now that people are seeing the film, he’s getting appropriately noticed.
There’s something about his scenes actually “performing” on the stage in the film. It’s a tough line to be appropriately large for the stage and appropriately small for the screen, and I think he and his director find the perfect balance.
What’s remarkable about Andrew Garfield’s performance in ”tick … tick … BOOM!” is that he had never sung in public before, let alone done a musical. Plus, he learned to play a piano. Wow!
I hope he wins!
Cumberbatch is so far out in front, it isn’t even funny. King Richard isn’t happening.
We always say that when the critics have their say and there are always surprises
I don’t see a shock Best Actor nominee this year, I think the field is pretty locked.
Who do you have as the nominees?
Smith, Cumberbatch, Dinklage, Garfield, Washington
Reasonable list. I thought you were implying that you didn’t think Smith would even be nominated
He’ll be nominated, but I don’t see where the idea that he’s lapping the field is coming from.
Frankly, I’m surprised he will be…I do not buy into the idea that he is due, or that he’s a front runner to win. There is truly nothing great about his performance or King Richard—like I don’t understand the “love” for it at all—specifically in regards to film awards.
The Blind Side 2.0
I will argue that Sandra Bullock was a bit more beloved when she won (height of her career) and, The Blind Side was a MASSIVE hit. King Richard is a “crowdpleaser”, but a pretty significant box office disappointment.
Simple #Oscarssowhite, I felt that will define Smith, admit that TPOTD, did not have a great reception from the public (many did not understand it and felt it boring, which I do not share but it is what it is), while KR was friendlier in audience perception, it is for that same reason that I do not see Stewart win (nominated yes, it is more contrary to your opinion, I loved her interpretation, I would be happy if she succeeds, many critics nominate her for what we say is a majority ), but it is not the same in audience so my prediction is that Chastain wins (great performance and he already deserves his Oscar)
So you think Chastain and Smith will be the lead winners, at Oscar?
Yep, this is what I think will happen, although personally I would like a Cumberbatch / Chastain winning 🙂
I haven’t seen TPOTD yet, so I can’t get on the Cumberbatch train yet but it does seem like he is a critics favorite—which doesn’t always translate. I’m not a big Will Smith fan, and King Richard didn’t change that—I just can’t see him winning. I think Chastain stands a chance—I don’t think Stewart is locked in to win the thing, not even close. Lead Actress has so much heat it’s insane—it feels like anyone can still get nominated and win the category. I also am not expecting any actors movie to clean sweep the season, it’s gonna make Oscar night fun!
You’re pushing your own prejudices as facts.
> The Blind Side 2.0
This is exactly why I think he will
my theory too
Yeah but here’s the difference—that scenario happened because Bullock had weak competition, she is adored and loved throughout the industry, but also she had never been nominated—people loved and wanted to celebrate that. Smith has MAJOR competition, he is not adored or loved throughout the industry—like he was in the 90s/early2000s, and he has two other Oscar nominations—and since his Concussion snub he has been nothing but a pretentious cry baby claiming racism he was nominated then.
He will be nominated, but I would be shocked if he wins.
Starting to feel this way, as well. The performance just isn’t there. It’s perfectly fine and Smith is capable in the role. It just isn’t undeniable.
I beg to differ Jerm, on Bullock having weak competition the year she won. I screamed and hollered that year on this site when Sasha and co were all predicting Bullock and I said, how could she be compared to Meryl for ‘Julie & Julia’ – and Streep was still to get that 3rd Oscar. There was also the BAFTA winner Carey Mulligan; Gabourey Sidibe’s awesome turn in ‘Precious’ and Helen Mirren, but she was never going to be a threat. Mirren in her sleep was better than Bullock. They all were that year.
After Sandra won, I lost, whatever faith I still had that they rewarded great acting in that lofty prize called ‘Best Actress’. Ordinary was all I got from The Blind Side.
Here’s my thoughts on that year:
1. Meryl was Bullocks only true competition—In terms of actually winning. I am a HUGE Meryl fan, and even though I loved her performance in Julie and Julia, it lacked her typical gravitas and she shared the spotlight with Amy Adam’s, whose side of the movie really was not good. I personally think she should have won for Doubt the year before—but it was Kate’s year and no one was going to stop that.
2. Carey Mulligan was good. Her performance was to subtle, I feel. BAFTA loved her. This was her first BIG break, but she was not gonna come close to the Oscar. I personally don’t understand the love for her performance in An Education…and she really wasn’t able to compete against an Oscar giant like Meryl and A huge money-making super star like Bullock.
3. Gabourey Sidibe was brilliant. She personally would have had my vote. Completely transformative. But again—she was new and didn’t have the love and support to take her all the way. Plus Monique was the major talk of the film and stole a lot of Sidibes thunder. Monique to me is one of the best supporting actress wins, ever. Everyone was talking about her more than they were talking about Gabourey—which I think hurt her more than people realize.
4. Helen Mirren was good, her movie was meh. I always thought she was just a filler nominee because of her name recognition and she was a recent winner as well—so she wasn’t getting near the Oscar. I think her being nominated with Carey hurt Carey with the British voting block.
5. Realistically Bullock in terms of acting that year was probably 4th or 5th in that line up…but she had the love from the industry with being a huge money making star, she had never been nominated, and every time she got up to accept an award she charmed the heck out of people. People wanted to give her that moment, it was more of a career Oscar than a performance win Oscar—which I generally get annoyed with. No one had a big enough performance or narrative to over take all that, which is why I say it was a weak year. Like I said her main competition was Meryl, but they weren’t gonna give her a third for a so/so movie over Bullocks narrative. The Blind Side getting in for best picture sealed the deal for Bullock.
Box office certainly bolstered Bullock’s narrative, but she had never been nominated as she had never done anything that even closely warranted her in Oscar talk. I recall being schooled here as to how popular Bullock was in the industry and with crew etc. You may be right that Mulligan and Sidibe did not have the narrative for a win, although Mulligan was certainly in the wheelhouse of ingenue that AMPAS either liked or was going to like – Reece Witherspoon (then recently) or Jennifer Lawrence (imminently )(neither which i thought deserved their Oscars) and Mirren had just won; but there was a lot of push for that 3rd Oscar for Meryl, and altho ‘Julie & Julia had its issues, Meryl was glorious in it.
The Blind Side was so lightweight and overrated, so when it comes to narratives now and into the future, I never look past the star vehicles or the ‘over due’ factor; however much I agree or disagree with it. And when performances as incredible as Michael Fassbender (Shame)or Michael Shannon (Take Shelter) aren’t even nominated; or a Charlotte Rampling losing to Brie Larson, or Emmanuelle Riva to Jennifer Lawrence, or Imelda Staunton to Hilary Swank – I adjust my expectations on who is ‘deserving’ on artistic merits.
I hear ya. I think that more often than not the Academy gets it wrong—and it’s always subjective anyways. There are almost always narratives that come into play—which can frustrate us Oscar and film lovers.
I get the Will Smith and Sandra Bullock comparison—it could still totally happen. I once made the comparison a few months back….but now that I’ve seen King Richard, I’ve held off because I just didn’t want to watch it but I relented, I really just am shocked it’s even in the conversation for Oscars. I really tried to be open minded. I felt like it was enjoyable and good popcorn movie. Just nothing to warrant Oscars for. I’m just not sold that Will Smith will get the Oscar—Especially after seeing it. I could be wrong, it’s just my gut.
always trust the gut. I do! It keeps life interesting. This awards palava is such a game. Just when you think you have it sorted – it surprises, big time! I personally have never been a Will Smith fan, so have no real personal stake on this outcome. For me an Andrew Garfield win would make me very happy, but right now, that looks extremely unlikely. I would be happy to see Cumberbatch win, but still undecided on whether his movie is the great masterpiece so many say it is. I’ll have to have my 2nd viewing between now and the first big awards show or nominations come out.
I’m preparing some montage clips again this year (i did Best Actress last year). Don’t know if you were as present then, Jerm. I posted about 10 last year ‘ ‘For Your Consideration’ clips and then the final 5 nominees, Ryan generously gave me a post to re-share them. I am doing ‘Best Actor’ this year. I’ve done 8 already. Hoping the final 5 are among them….
*** Ryan, if you are reading comments (i emailed you a day or two ago) I have some clips ready to go early next year. I hope you are going ok, buddy. 🙂
That is cool! I totally missed them, but now I’m looking forward to them!
I’ve been holding off on Power of the Dog—more for mental health reasons. I can’t tell from what I’ve read if it will upset me or not. So I’ve been hesitant to watch it—so I have not posted about my feelings towards it. In my predictions I’m trusting everyone else’s opinions of it thus far…..which is totally annoying but I’d rather be cautious then reckless for my sake. I go back and forth with it, especially since it is such a major awards player this year! Like I want to have an opinion on it. So I’m torn.
again, go with the gut, Jerm. Your reactions and predictions are always considered and insightful, and you own your statements and views. Likewise if i haven’t seen a movie, i share that, before venturing too far in with opinion. But there’s so much to see, and not enough time, access or money to make it happen all at once.!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_4VeHD9hJM – here’s one to give you a flavor of them. And my channel on youtube.
and my favourite of the ones i made last season https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1l6daNJ5xQ – was it you i was messaging about Duffy? The pop singer. Anyway this one is a different vibe.
Always keeping it real. Thanks Dave, appreciate the wisdom.
I love that you make those videos! I’m looking forward to what you do this year—and who you choose!!
thanks Jerm, appreciate your support and affinity. Always! Take good care of you and the family.
Bullock really did have weak competition when you look back on it. Her only real competition was Streep in a co-lead/glorified supporting role.
I would think that poor box office for KR really hampers him, whereas The Blind Side was a massive hit for beloved Bullock.
If only greatness was the pre-requisite for the award; but subjectively (he says), it is not; going on past winners. Actually i typed wieners – then backspaced! winners.
Sad but true.
wasn’t it you, or was it Tom, who was predicting jaw dropping winners in Lead Actor & Lead Actress this year? Maybe i’ve got my wires crossed, but wanted at the time to ask, why you thought this year some big surprises were coming. Again, it may not have been you 🙂
My original vibe was Dinklage upsetting, but I think Dog is going to romp
this. It’s like people expecting some actors to surprise the Oscar morning because Time put their favorites in Top 10 performances. Nobody votes because of Time. They either saw a movie and liked a performance or didn’t like it or didn’t watch the screener. It’s no rocket science. Reading tea leaves from non-industry sources just shows how weak someone’s champion is. Nobody needs to read tea leaves for frontrunners. We know who they are and that won’t change. There’s no more room for late breakers cause everything is out.
That said, I do think that Smith got hurt somewhat when his movie underperformed at the boxoffice and on streaming. He is one of the world’s biggest stars and as such is very much defined by the boxoffice. Bullock, Roberts, Leo just to name another 3 superstars won for big boxoffice successes. So I think that his path to the win would be easier if he had boxoffice since that’s his domain. Cumberbatch isn’t supposed to headline a hit but Smith is. Unfair but such is superstardom.
What I’ve been thinking – Smith will get King Richard’s Oscar (unless he happens in supporting actress instead).
Jane gets Dog’s Oscar. Possibly supporting actress.
Belfast to win picture would get screenplay and possibly Hinds. Unless Anderson wins screenplay. Then it gets 2 Oscars.
Beyoncé will get King Richard’s Oscar, imho
Ism’t that category going to Billie Eilish?
the jury’s still out on that. (but I’d bet on Beyonce)
Eilish will get this Oscar. Beyonce wants an Oscar and has been stupid enough to say it out loud. Several times. In good Oscar tradition, they won’t give it to her. They’ll give it to the person who acts as if she doesn’t care.
I haven’t heard the song, but the last Bond film won song even though it really shouldn’t have IMO so who the hell knows at this point.
Belfast is an easy target. Way too easy. It also isn’t that good, which is always an issue. I won’t be predicting it to win picture unless it wins PGA, SAG (ensemble) and Branagh actually makes it into directing. Right now he’s an easy directing snub.
BELFAST NEEDS to win Screenplay to win BP (in a logical world at least) and it’s hard to see it winning that ATM let alone any other trophy… Who knows maybe BELFAST only ends up winning supporting actor for Hinds as a quasi career award. I could see that… And I say that having not even seen the film yet lol.
I have agreed all season with your and the Sandra Bullock comparison. His time has come. And let’s to forget this is 2021: Diversity, Equity, Inclusion
At least when Bullock won we didn’t have to deal with people complaining she only won because of her skin color. What is happening to people on this site?
The race or gender etc of the actors are the least of my worries when it comes to nods and wins… But it is too bad that Bullock won over the substantially better performance by a black actress Sidibe.
Exactly: Diversity, Equity, Inclusion. Let’s give it to an entitled shitty actor/homophobe.
I have agreed all season with your about the Sandra Bullock comparison His time has come, especially in the year of Diversity, Equity, Inclusion
It’s actually really hard to pick between Smith and Cumberbatch. There are legitimate concerns to be had with King Richard and how it whitewashes Richard Williams, but looking at Will Smith’s work as performance and film craft, it really is some of his best work. And while I’ve generally been a bit sick of Benedict Cumberbatch over the last decade, The Power of the Dog is not only a vastly superior movie, but Cumberbatch gives so much dimensionality to someone who could be a stock character. He’s impossible not to watch. Plus, he SLAYS on the banjo, which Will Smith does not do in King Richard. Frankly, I’d be happy with either going the distance. They’re both really well deserved.
That said, Nicolas Cage in Pig is probably my performance of the year, and represents what’s so amazing about that film. Cage resists giving you the obvious Cage-isms, and instead, is so restrained, achingly sad, mysterious, and darkly funny at times. It’s right up my alley. I don’t think he’ll get the nomination, but if he does, I’d be over the moon.
It’s not. Smith has a better career story than Cumberbatch who doesn’t have any really. KStew has the best. Redemption arc. Defied bias and publicity madness.
I’m talking purely in terms of the performances. If it’s about the narrative of who is most deserving, yes. Will Smith is certainly more compelling.
we know that narratives are something awards watchers invent, and sometimes media too cause it’s clicky, but ultimately AMPAS doesn’t care. if they like someone else, they’ll vote for them. So while I think Smith win would be a great story, if they like Cumberbatch more, he’ll win. It isn’t that he doesn’t have a narrative too. He’s a household name thanks to Sherlock and Marvel phenomena, made a successful transition from TV to movies, balances ultra commercial and ultra prestige. Definitely someone they would let in the winner club.
Fair. Like I said, I think both are deserving winners. And there are all kinds of reasons we can point to as to what makes them competitive.
A narrative, though, is also one of the reasons people (Oscar voters included) like and vote for something over something else. (Which can make quite the difference, given that most of the nominees are usually already very good and it’s often quite hard to decide between them.) I’ve always thought “momentum” was mostly a BS word when it came to the Oscar race, and this has been confirmed to me many times, but “narrative” seems, logically speaking, like it should be a real thing. There are also many examples – all debatable, of course, but so are all other such arguments in the predicting business. Stats are the only ones that aren’t debatable.
then we have to talk about AMPAS internal narrative vs Oscar pundit/watcher/media external one. Glenn Close’s “overdue” narrative that pundits, media and stans were pushing didn’t crossover with AMPAS. Ditto Boseman’s death and haphazard attempt to revise his career as “iconic” which it definitely wasn’t.
One could say that Leo’s Oscar Meme/Narrative panned out but one has to look at why: his movie was an enormous boxoffice hit with months and months of coverage about chasing real light and hardships Leo went through for the role (he ate meat! – a terrible sacrifice for a vegan), competition was weak since there wasn’t a movie or role to challenge him. The closest would be Jobs but that movie bombed hard and stench of failure is enough to ruin awards plans sometimes. Especially in the wake of a juggernaut starring a bone fide superstar who was nominated 3-4 times already. And who ate meat! Stars lined up.
Of course, it’s always tricky to judge which of the pushed narratives actually stick with voters, indeed. That’s why I don’t like to mess around with such things – some people are very good at figuring out which narratives will stick and which won’t, most of the time. (Sasha seems exceptionally good at this, for instance. Idle Time is maybe another example.) I’m not (or at least I’ve never really tried, as it just doesn’t seem like my sort of thing), so I prefer to use my logic (which is actually pretty good) to try to best interpret the stats and the story they tell – about narratives and momentum and whatever else comes into play. All of it translates into precursor/Oscar wins and nominations, which translate into stats…
I’m glad that Close and Boseman narratives didn’t stick cause both were in shit movies and didn’t deserve to win for that especially since the winners gave the best performances in legit good movies. I never understood stans who want their faves to win for anything. I’d rather have my fave w/o win if it isn’t the right movie/role and would be over someone more deserving. Have no patience for years of discourse and shitting on the win which happens when a win is perceived (by oscar watching community that is) as undeserved.
I mostly agree.
“I’d rather have my fave w/o win if it isn’t the right movie/role and would be over someone more deserving.”
I 100% get that. But, personally, I just don’t really believe these things are awarded on merit, anyway (they should be, but they’re not – it’s many other factors which, in an ideal world, wouldn’t matter), so, since that’s the case, I’d rather my favorite, if they have no Oscars and I think they deserve one, got one, even if it’s for not their most impressive performance and over somebody I think is more deserving. (See Emma Stone in La La Land! I’ll never forget how awesome it was to see her winning, even though I had several performances I preferred that year in the category, including among the nominees, and she has – and had – definitely been even better in other things.)
“Have no patience for years of discourse and shitting on the win which
happens when a win is perceived (by oscar watching community that is) as
undeserved.”
I’m used to it, I don’t care anymore. 🙂 (Also, luckily, in Emma’s case, the win was received O.K., even if not with tremendous enthusiasm. I don’t think it’s considered one of the worse ones. Anyway, I would have given it to her for Birdman or The Favourite…)
Emma’s win is fine. It’s only Jackiestans and Hupertstans who grumble but they are the niche of niche. She swept precursors so it was an expected win. They are more triggered by nail-biters such as Colman vs Close.
Expected, of course. I meant merit-wise, there were others I thought were better that year. (Including Portman.)
Garfield, Cumberbatch, Ahmed, Isaac and Cooper would be my personal picks at this point.
But I’d predict Garfield, Cumberbatch, Smith, Washington and (ugh) Dinklage.
Haven’t seen Ali in Swan Song yet, but here’s hoping he’s great and sneaks in.
Also haven’t seen a lot of things yet but so far I’d say something along the lines of a collection of five from Oscar Isaac, Lee Kang-sheng, Adam Driver, Benedict Cumberbatch, Dev Patel and Don Cheadle with runners-up Anong Houngheuangsy, Aditya Modak, Dan Stevens, Nicholas Cage, Reed Birney, Andrew Garfield and Vincent Lindon
Isaac? Not for Dune, obviously…the Card Counter?
Yes indeed. There’s no real way to see him as the lead in Dune.
Why settle for lead when you can be daddy
That IS quite the puzzle; who is lead in Dune, who is supporting? Chalamet to me is the lead actor, and Ferguson is lead actress. Everyone else is in supporting, including Zendaya (who’s only onscreen for what, 7 and a half minutes?)
The films too small and hasn’t gotten enough traction for Isaac to be a player at this point
it’s kinda strange because Focus has no Actor except him. They pushed Dornan who is a borderline lead in Supporting together with real supporting Hinds. And the kid was never going to happen in Lead. So I’m bummed that they left that field open or campaign simply didn’t get results.
Dornan is going to get steamrolled by Hinds. I get why they pushed him in Supporting but like come on
Agreed. I’d say, the safest bets for nomination are KSP, Hinds and Kotsur and the winner is likely one of them. 2 more spots to fill and though it won’t happen, Garfield is awards worthy in No Way Home. But he will get in in Lead for Tik Tik Boom.
Dornan is also kinda lost in the film, because he’s supposed to be a great dad and bit of a fuckup, but he can never really bring out both, largely because the film doesn’t give him much of a chance.
The support for Dornan is a sign of support for the movie in general.
True. The performances are really the easiest thing to latch onto with Belfast/
That’s why I don’t predict him. Definitely not happening. But he’s more nomination-worthy than most of the contenders mentioned in the article.
typically of critics, he was praised to heaven high during the festival run (I remember accolades for his eye acting) and then they forgot about him like they did about Dev Patel (their summer favorite for all awards) and Driver in Annette (who was compared to De Niro in Raging Bull). Never trust critics. They overpraise and then forget. Add poor Simon Rex to the list. I’m surprised that Cage actually got some traction with local critics and CCA, unlike the other 4.
I haven’t seen The Card Counter yet but I don’t doubt Isaac brings it. He usually does
He and Tiffany Haddish are the pairing I never knew I needed. Sizzling.
Haven’t seen nearly everything yet, but so far my favourites would be
Cumberbatch (TPOTD), Washington (Macbeth), Rex (Red Rocket), Phoenix (C’mon C’mon) and Chalamet (Dune).
Still need to see Red Rocket and C’mon C’mon.
From what I’ve heard, Dinklage would be the favorite if Cyrano were not a musical. It’s not just that he’s not a great singer (he’s good, not great); some people just don’t like the songs.
The songs suck and, frankly, so does Dinklage. And his singing isn’t the main problem. He gives the weakest performance of the principal cast, sad to say.
Dinklage sucks? No, never. I have not watched Game of Thrones, but I have seen him in films and he’s always been really good. He’s such a generous actor. And I’ve seen some interviews or award shows.
He’s a really nice guy. Very humble.
I love his pre-Game of Thrones screen work, but I don’t think that show was great for his acting, as fun as the role was to watch at times. I don’t doubt that he’s a good person, but that doesn’t have anything to do with the quality of his performance in Cyrano. You should (re)watch The Station Agent, then GoT and then Cyrano, see what you think.
I am just saying that he’s a really good actor, based on the things I’ve seen him in.I am not going to Game of Thrones.
No one’s arguing that he’s not a good actor. Sometimes they suck or are in movies that suck or both, it happens.
I recall Michael Keaton losing to Eddie Redmayne for the best actor Oscar in 2015. Birdman won best picture and other categories, and the Theory of Everything did not get any other Oscars. I think performances that are created from fictional characters are much more challenging than portraying a historical figure or another celebrity. Maybe there should be two categories! I think Benedict Cumberbatch’s performance took much more effort to create then Will Smith recreating Richard Willaims.
But the major awards tend to favour actors playing someone famous. That’s why we have had prevalence of biopic films. This year is so full of them, especially on the ladies side.
Yep, which is why a film focusing on the ambitious father who nurtured and pushed his daughters to become two of the greatest tennis players ever, will probably be rewarded. He’s hardly a household name around the world, but the sisters? That’s quite the narrative.
Yes, that’s why I want Smith to win. I mean, I was a fan of his growing up, but I really want this story to be rewarded. I am absolutely fascinated by the achievement of the Williams sisters. I am a big tennis fan and even though my favourite player is Roger Federer, the Williams sister are the real heroes. And their great father,of cours. One of the greatest sporting stories and achievements.
The debate is on regarding who is the greatest female tennis player of all time. Serena, Martina Navratilova, Steffi Graf, Margaret Court, Billie Jean King?
On the men’s side Federer would have still done reasonably well in the 1990s on a fast Wimbledon surface. Nadal.and Djokovic may have skipped it.
I’d vote for Martina.
That would be a great match to watch. Martina in her prime versus Serena.
ooh yeh!
who do you rate as the greatest female tennis player? It took me a minute to scan those names you listed. I wondered if it was Billie Jean or Margaret Court, but here in Australia her reputation has taken a hit due to her controversial comments about LGBT folk.
Court won 24 slams in only 11 years I think. Serena has taken over 2 decades to try and get there. But they played less tournaments in Courts era.
yes i guess it’s how one measures the greatness. I love the spirit of Martina – her grit. My heart is with Evonne Goolagong- Cawley. I also really liked Chris Evert. She and Martina were fierce rivals when i was a teenager and watched a lot of tennis.
The players we like and who we think is objectively the are not necessarily the same. Federer and Graf are my favourites, but they probably will not be the greatest, st least in terms of titles. Serena has taken that title and Djokovic will probably take men’s.
But they had a lot less competition. You can’t compare eras.
Serena played more tournaments you can also say that Sampras had more competition at Wimbledon than Federer.
.
Like I said, Serena had more competition. Back in Court’s days women tennis was not anywhere as deep as during Serena days. And we’re talking about Serena vs. Court, not Sampras Federer.
Serena Williams has longevity. Previously tennis players didn’t win much in their thirties or were finished by then. Serena’s dominance only grew in her thirties. And Sampras had weaker opponents than because the weren’t really any top players to challenge him at Wimbledon.
My favourite male player has always been John McEnroe, but discussing who is the best female player I think it’s hard to beat Steffi Graf.
Mcenroe on a quick Wimbledon surface would beat djokovic maybe in straight seta. Graf had the best forehand.
Yes, it’s practically hard court now. And Graf had the majestic and deadly forehand. That’s why she’s my favourite female tennis player. And let’s not forget her footwork. Only bettered by Federer who floats majestically. Nobody moves like him. A poetry in motion at his best. I am obsessed with aesthetics and Federer is just a dream to watch.
Ten years ago, it would have been Graf. But now Serena has surpassed them all. Serena has record of singles and has won lots of doubles as well. Look at her Olympic record, too.
McEnroe was before my time, sadly. But he was beautiful player and is regarded as the greatest voleyer of all time. He was involved in some of the greatest matches and ended the career of Bjorn Borg who was unbeatable before he came up against Mcenroe. He didn’t win as many titles as he could’ve and perhaps should’ve because he was temperamental and it didn’t always help him.
Well, now it’s Serena Williams. Because she’s broken every major and the only thing missing beating Margaret Court’s overall record, but that was before the open era where there was less competition. I used to to think it was Steffi Graf because she held open record before Serena took away from her. It was between her and Navratilova. Maybe I was biased because Steffi is my favourite female tennis player. I watched her at her peak unlike Navratilova and other great players. I think overall if you’re include doubles, Navratilova is maybe the greatest. It’s to compare because Steffi never played doubles so you can only compare themIn singles. And if you’re talking about personality and impact on their sport, then Billie Jean King wins hands down.
You’re right. Federer is the only player who can play in any and on any surface. He is clearly the most naturally gifted player ever. And the things he could do and sheer skill factor alone, he greatest of all. Perhaps the greatest sportsman of all time. Certainly the greatest in my lifetime. In terms of talent there’s nobody close to him. But as we know, competition is about more than talent. He could end behind Djokovic and Nadal in Grand Slam titles despite obliterating Sampras’ record.
Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert won 18 GS’s each. Each was in their prime at the same time. But as Chris Evert says all the time, no one really kept track back then, overall tournament wins were way more important. Both have doubled Serena Williams tournament wins.
Steffi Graf would be the obvious choice if it weren’t for Monica Seles.
There are arguments for and against each. But I’d give it to Martina, simply because there is absolutely no doubt that she was the Best Doubles player ever, male or female, and that pushes her over the top.
Do Navratilova and Evert have the same father?
That’s why Andrew Garfield could win on Oscar night!
The perception is not there,, at least among Oscar prognostics and critics. He can’t suddenly come and win on Oscar night. He must show strength, but that’s not the case at the moment. The two frontrunners have dominated the conversation so far because of their strong and performances.
I’d like to see a Cumberbatch/KSM double. Both are at the right point in their respective careers for that recognition, broke through at a similar time in the late 00s and have always been distinctive performers with an unorthodox look. The Piano went Actress/Supp. Actress as well, so Campion has form there. Cumberbatch doesn’t feel a slam dunk, but he’ll do.
I don’t find Will Smith that great of an actor to be worthy of the award, his Ali & Pursuit of Happiness noms were ‘career recognition’, a win is frankly too far. Supporting Actor is probably his lane to an Oscar.
Realistically, Caleb Landry Jones & Judy Davis should be sweeping Actor & Supp Actress, but oh well.
Obama just put Drive my car (The worst person in the world, too) on his Best 2021 movies list.
Looks like Hamaguchi’s popularity is rising. Crossing my fingers for those above the line noms.
I always wonder how curated Obama’s best of lists are
Who you gonna call? Ghost listers.
They always read to me as painfully calculated.
I mean, yeah
My NGNG is Hamaguchi nominated in Best Director
My NGNG is two International films for Best director
Who would be the other one? And which contenders get snubbed?
Almodovar, I hope. But watch out for Sorrentino or Farhadi.
That would be beyond cool. As much as the American film industry (and America in general) is tearing itself apart, the talent pool in international cinema is as substantial as the Golden Age of French/Japanese/Italian films in the 60’s. Absolutely fearless work being done all over the planet right now.
Oh, and the one snubbed on my NGNG would be Spielberg. In my real predictions I put Brannagh out, though. Campion, Villeneuve and PTA in.
Interestingly he did include neither Respect nor King Richard!
Probably because whoever writes these list knows enough to only put movies that make it seem like Obama has excellent taste
The big question is how does he find the time to watch movies? I don’t think he watches that many to believe he comes up with a great list.
I know Will Smith doesn’t have the industry affection that Sandra Bullock has, but I can see him winning the Oscar akin to her win over a decade ago. He has been around a long time; a teen star turned serious actor. Has made a lot of money for studios and filmmakers (like Bullock) and is extremely well known. Whilst I haven’t seen King Richard, it sounds like a role to crown (pardon the pun) an actor’s career.
Benedict should have won for The Imitation Game, and is extraordinary in Power Of The Dog, but i am yet to be convinced that his portrayal will wow AMPAS members over Will Smith. But it may well happen.
Will Smith was just okay. The same way people feel about Bullocks win will be the same feeling people have about Smith if he wins. It was a mediocre film, and honestly he doesn’t do really anything to warrant a nomination, let alone a win, in my personal opinion.
I can see him easily losing the Oscar, if people truly have time to think about their decision—similarly to how the long season helped Hopkins win, I could see the same situation playing out again this year.
Cumberbatch takes BAFTA. Smith takes SAG. Doesn’t matter what CC and GG decide.
Hopkins won over Boseman.
McDormand won over Davis.
Colman won over Close.
Affleck won over Washington.
In recent years, the Academy never went for the SAG winner over the BAFTA winner in Lead Acting.
Especially when the BAFTA winner was more of a critics’ favourite.
Stats are made to be broken. 🙂
But yes, they favor Cucumber.
So lets say Cucumber wins Actor. Who wins Supporting Actor and Actress? It’s rare for actors from the same movie to win (last time was McCon and Leto I think?). I don’t think Dunst is in it to win it, but KSP could.
I honestly think TPOTD could walk away without any acting awards. I think Smith will ultimately beat out Cumberbatch and that KSP will lose out to Hinds because of his veterans status
we agree that BAFTA will go with Cumberbatch but what about supporting? Conventional wisdom says Hinds but he’s Irish. BAFTA snubbed Fassbender for 12YS and awarded that first time actor from Captain Philips. Could an Aussie be a better alternative?
What does being Irish have to do with anything?
Brits are racist. Everybody knows that 😉
The English don’t like the Irish and vice versa.
That’s not quite true. It’s much more complicated than that.
For example, any Irish person can live and work in the UK and vice versa. They can even vote in elections!
but can they vote for BAFTA? :thinking:
🙂
I think you’re confusing the Republic of Ireland with Northern Ireland which is part of the United Kingdom. Belfast is the capital of Northern Ireland, so it’s really the same country.
Thanks, but I don’t believe I am. Citizens of the Republic of Ireland can live, work, and vote in the UK.
Live and work maybe, but vote? I don’t think so. I think that might have been when the UK was in the European Union.
Please refer to the guidance on the British government website on who can vote in UK general elections:
“ General elections (elections to the UK Parliament) usually take place every 5 years.
To vote in a general election you must:
be registered to vote
be 18 or over on the day of the election (‘polling day’)
be a British, Irish or qualifying Commonwealth citizen
be resident at an address in the UK (or a British citizen living abroad who has been registered to vote in the UK in the last 15 years)
not be legally excluded from voting”
Does the Irish refer to people of Northern Ireland or Republic of Ireland?
A person from Northern Ireland would be a British citizen, as it is part of the UK.
Anyway, I don’t know what we are wondering this. Is it important to the debate about Oscars?
Well I just mentioned it as a fun fact and you challenged me.
Please refer to the guidance on gov.uk on who can vote in UK general elections:
“ General elections (elections to the UK Parliament) usually take place every 5 years.
To vote in a general election you must:
be registered to vote
be 18 or over on the day of the election (‘polling day’)
be a British, Irish or qualifying Commonwealth citizen
be resident at an address in the UK (or a British citizen living abroad who has been registered to vote in the UK in the last 15 years)
not be legally excluded from voting“
who knows what voting variations will throw up this year by BAFTA. I stopped predicting the parochial sentiments for BAFTA many years ago.
maybe they snub all white actors cause BAFTA circumvent diversity noms and awards the rare whites in Actor and Actress.
Richard Harris was Irish, didn’t he win a BAFTA at some point? What about DDL?
wait only 2 ever won?
I don’t know how many, those are the ones I could remember off the top of my head
There is no issue there. They might have a tough relationship historically, but that’s mostly political. Britain perfer the Irish over the Americans, any day of the week.
DDL isn’t really Irish. His dad was the poet laureate. And has won FOUR lead actor.
Smit-McPhee is the frontrunner at the moment. I think some people are pulling for Hinds in Belfast, but that performance is even lower key and doesn’t really have a scene that just grabs you, other than maybe the hospital conversation. But if they were gonna go with a vet from that film, Judi Dench is way more affecting, and she probably won’t even be nominated.
Dunst could still take it. She’s so good in the film, and it is one of those roles where someone is suffering that the Academy often goes for. Other than Dunst, Aunjanue Ellis seems like the other big possibility. She’s really good in King Richard, elevating a character type that has been done to death.
Dunst’s piano vs banjo scene was ace.
I’m far more confident in Smit-McPhee at the moment than any other acting frontrunner. I hope the age bias doesn’t hurt him.
I don’t think Dunst wins though, although I can’t rule it out just yet.
Off the top of my head, we would have to go back 40 years to Timothy Hutton’s win to find a Supp Actor of his age?
I think he would be the youngest ever, although don’t quote me on that. But yes, for some reason, incredibly rare for young actors.
Smit-McPhee is ‘old’ for a young contender though. His award-winning role in Romulus, My Father was fourteen years ago now. It isn’t like he just broke through or anything or has surprised us with what he can do. Like Dunst, he was an acclaimed child actor. At the same time, I’ve always loved Hinds.
Notice that thre of those are black. Colman was one of the most charming winners ever. I could see that upset happening.
Cumberbatch gets the lion’s share of critics awards plus BAFTA/possibly CC, Smith takes Globe, SAG and Oscar
I agree with this. People will expect Cumberbatch to take the Oscar cause BAFTAwinners recently did, but it’s going to be Smith.
BAFTA has screwed black actors every time they look on course to win the Oscar. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen again this season.
eh, I wouldn’t say BAFTA. Diversity push within AMPAS opened the door to many international industry people who don’t have a reason to support black actors just because they don’t win so often or at all in Actor, Actress, Picture, Director. When you look at the list of whom AMPAS invites, instead of focusing on famous names, check the techs and you’ll see gazillion Asians and Mexicans. So if the #OscarssoWhite’s secret plan was only to prop black talent, they miscalculated. International talent has no reason to do that. Why do you think the last few Oscars had Asian nominees and winners and Oscars 2022 are now looking like Japanese Drive My Car may take Foreign and the director might slip in Director? Asian talent being added to AMPAS membership at maxumum rate. Asia has well developed industry and many of their talent on various parts of film-making – in front and behind the camera, cast and crew – works in Hollywood too. So they are outpacing African American membership. But hey, you asked for it with Oscarssowhite.
This is my hunch as well at the moment. If BC takes Globe or especially SAG then I think he’ll be home free.
I think smith will take it. He is certainly due, and I expect it to be the sole win for the feature-length digital video in which he stars.
I wouldn’t say he’s due so much as the time has come