Best Picture: DRIVE MY CAR, Runner-up: THE POWER OF THE DOG
Best Film Not in the English Language: PETITE MAMAN, Runner-up: QUO VADIS, AIDA?
New Generation Award: Shatara Michelle Ford, TEST PATTERN and Tatiana Huezo, PRAYERS FOR THE STOLEN
Best Director: Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG, Runner-up: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, DRIVE MY CAR
Best Actor: Simon Rex, RED ROCKET, Runner-Up: Benedict Cumberbatch, Power of the Dog
Best Actress: Penelope Cruz, PARALLEL MOTHERS. Runner-up: Renate Reinsve, THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
Best Documentary/Nonfiction, Winner: SUMMER OF SOUL, Runner-up: PROCESSION.
Screenplay: DRIVE MY CAR, Runner-up: LICORICE PIZZA
Animated: FLEE, Runner-up: BELLE
Best Supporting Actor (TIE): Vincent Lindon, TITANE and Kodi Smit-McPhee, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Best Editing: Joshua L. Pearson, SUMMER OF SOUL, Runner-up: Andy Jurgensen, LICORICE PIZZA
Best Production Design, Winner: Steve Saklad, BARB AND STAR GO TO VISTA DEL MAR, Runner-up: Tamara Deverell, NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose, WEST SIDE STORY, Runner-up: Aunjanue Ellis, KING RICHARD
Best Score: Alberto Iglesias, PARALLEL MOTHERS, Runner-up: Jonny Greenwood, THE POWER OF THE DOG and SPENCER
Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Runner-up: Greig Fraser, DUNE
So, finally Cruz wins a big one
Best Picture: DRIVE MY CAR
Best Film Not in the English Language: PETITE MAMAN
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What?
Which part are you confused about?
When a critics group ends up giving Best Picture to something non-English-language, they pretty-much always give their International Prize to something else (presumably whatever was second-place).
Some groups end up not giving the International prize at all in those circumstances.
Sony underestimated. Spiderman: No Way Home earned $260m. now #2 best domestic opening weekend ever.
Updated breakdown:
Friday: $121.925m (includes Thursday previews)
Saturday: $73.9m
Sunday: $64.175m, 3rd best Sunday ever (Endgame, $90.3m Infinity War, $69.2m)
Boxofficeguru: “It’s way too early to predict final grosses. But breaking $700 and $800m are certainly in the cards and beating out the $858.4M final of Endgame cannot be ruled out at this point.”
I love how it’s way too early to predict final grosses but they go on regardless to predict final grosses.
Anyway, I might be wrong, but I feel like a massive Omicron wave will push people to be more cautious which will hurt ciinema sales in the coming weeks.
Fleabag
So currently all but 5 of the Gurus Of Gold have Jane Campion tipped for Director at the Oscars, but less than half have her movie as Best Picture. 13 have Power Of The Dog, 7 have Belfast, 3 have West Side Story, 3 for Dune, 1 for King Richard. Whilst I get it changes and updated a lot – that is quite the disconnect between what they consider the Best Directed Film and the Best Picture of The Year.
It is not easy to predict what film will fare best on the preferential ballot this year; given the contenders and the shape of the world at the moment.
Which movie will be disliked least by most people? That is what wins under that voting system.
WSS will do far better than the Dawg with the pref ballot as its a crowd pleaser
that’s my sense but i have not see WSS. But i have seen the Dog, and it is not a crowd pleaser, but then neither was No Country for Old Men or Shape of Water or Parasite.
But that said, I am having a hrd time imagining in 2022 they will vote for such a dark and at times (for me anyway) dramatically bereft narrative.
The Dawg is nothing like No country, Shape/ water or Parasite as they were exciting and engaging to watch ..I literally fell asleep during the 130 mins of tedium ; it’s never going to appeal to the rank and file voters who want something accessable and not some art-house twit raves about
i was referring more to tone and mood
Parasite is a crowdpleaser. Last year the opposite of a crowdpleaser won, and the trend since 2016 is for more critically praised films to win instead of the regular made by the numbres Oscar contender (minus Green Book). TPOTD is still a strong contender, regardless of this “a crowdpleaser has to win” campaign that is pushed by pundits
A lot as been written about crowd pleasers especially this year.
The reality is the preferential ballot era, it’s the MC score, the critics not the crowds, that has ruled. As Sammy keeps trying to tell everyone.
All BP winners other than Green Book have been 86+.
Of the top contenders only TPOTD has this. WSS is just under at 85.
so why aren’t pundits all in all Jane? All the time? Why do they think she so brilliantly directed it, which she did, but aren’t en masse confident it will win BP? (as you know i am in that camp too)
For the reasons you’ve outlined, the dark tone & mood (I mean I never thought a Jane Campion film could win BP as they are very challenging & different) as well as the Netflix factor I think.
I think the campaign needs to challenge the perception that it can win BD & not BP (thanks Venice for starting that trend). It has won most critics BP so far (with 7), and a lot of the discussion, including here, is why it can’t win the big one.
I personally think, before the campaigns kick in, that Belfast is ahead, but not by much, and a frontrunner for BD, AS and a strong contender in 2 acting races (3 if you include Kirsten) and techs (esp score & cinematography) HAS to be a strong contender for BP, no?
so why are the pundits not confident in that nexus between Director & Picture if they overwhelmingly appreciate her brilliance, as we do? Dark films have won both prizes before in the last 15 years. I think the pandemic has something to do with it.
The Piano should and would have won were it not for Spielberg’s passion project and very compelling movie. It would be ironical if Jane was pipped again by Spielberg.
The Piano was very much an outsider art house film at the time, a strong campaign landed 3 wins. I think it would have more chance winning today than it did then.
An alternative view is that the majority of pundits 13/24 ARE predicting it to win BP just with less certainty than BD.
oh i don’t know it wasn’t that long after those epics and period pieces that dominated the Oscars in the 1980’s and early 1990’s. The raves at Cannes that year really set the narrative and the female Director was a push too from memory. She was the darling! I can still recall the moment she won for Screenplay, and altho she is a Kiwi, I felt such waves of nationalism running through me for her success. Brilliant screenplay. They can’ t take that away from her.
I like some of those Australian movies by Peter Weir
we’ve punched WAY above our weight over the decades, Peter Weir, Bruce Beresford, Fred Schepsi, Phillip Noyce, George Miller, Baz Luhrmann, Jane Campion (i know we borrow her from the Kiwis), Gillian Armstrong……
I was in an Aussie horror movie playing a supporting role (1982)
oh please tell me – not Turkey Shoot? Razorback?
I should be given an oscar, quite frankly,as when I came to Oz, and within 48 hours, I ran into none other than Ivan Milat when hitch hiking up in the Blue Mountains ; I had haplessly stumbled into a serial killer movie where I was due to be the next victim without a hint of self awareness .. it’s a fine example of how sinister coincidence effects our lives ; moreover it’s a good example of ”outback noir” and the blackest of dark humour as he actually asked me if I wanted to ride along into the bush where I was ”sure to see some real aussie wildlife” ! I didn’t realise that he meant HIMSELF
I came back to Oz recently as a guest of a major newsnetwork and we made this crime Doc about it ..
YOUTUBE / SUNDAY NIGHT/ IVAN MILAT
wow, i took you so literally, thinking you were in one of our tax haven disasters we made in the 1980’s – you were in a real life horror movie – and survived! I’m quite stunned to read this. I recall the programs made about him, i couldn’t watch though. i’m glad you decided to come back. hooley dooley! i’m speechless. which is rare…..
I left the bleak English winter on new years day 1982 bound for the summer heat of Oz and within a mere 48 hrs I found myself riding along with Ivan Milat while he metamorpenized into a bipedal wolf ; all that was missing from this classic Australian-ana was the jaunty sound of Rolf Harris singing ”Tie me kangeroo down sport” playing on the radio (shrug)
Imagine the look on my face as I thought to myself ” Oh, it’s all true, they REALLY don’t like the Poms ” !
we’re dangerous, for sure! Aussies are a weird mob! where do you live now?
You Aussies can’t claim Jane Campion for yourselves anymore than we Yanks can claim Villeneuve
oh we can and we do! She trained here and learned her craft at the famed at the Australian Film, Television and Radio School. She shot Sweetie here and several of her features were either funded or co-funded here. She married an Aussie. We consider her as being Aussie made. I wish we could disown Russell Crow more often. When he was great we claimed him as ours, when he was horrid, he was a Kiwi!!
And it would certainly get nominated for Score. How it missed out baffles me
Michael Nyman’s score is one of my all time favourites. I must drag the CD out of mothballs and give it a whirl.
i like your reframe. That speaks to me 🙂 that’s interesting. I shall percolate on that
The BP / BD split seems likely, not sure what could get BP though. Belfast seems like an “everyone will at least like it, nobody will hate it” type but I could also see the Academy embracing West Side Story in an attempt to show some support for the dying art form of “big budget Hollywood studio drama” ? Not sure.
WSS being a box office hit would have helped the argument I think
I think it being a BO flop could add to its campaign narrative just as much. It went from Goliath to David. The underdog. And people love an underdog.
In this batshit crazy time we are existing in, i don’t doubt such a narrative is compelling for voters.
In pre-pandemic times this kind of BO for a major Oscar contender would have been the kiss of death, I mean something like FIRST MAN was sunk by BO and it wasn’t even that bad of BO.
But in pandemic times, I think there will be a lot of goodwill and sympathy for a critically acclaimed big budget studio film from a beloved director whose film is struggling in this new climate.
A lot of people, myself included, were not enthusiastic about seeing a remake of a oscar winning 1960s musical , but when they actually see it ,will be, like myself, hugely impressed ; I’m simply in awe of Speilberg to make a magnificent movie like this
what is amazing is looking at Feb 2020 to now – not even 2 years of pandemic and we have had Parasite, Nomadland and now???.. I mean how different could those two be in consecutive years. One was so edgy and sorry to say again bat shit crazy – and the other was reflective and prosaic. So I am led to feel by my own instincts that something with some heart – something as Sasha has often advised – look for something that moves them. That is what will land at the top of the heap. I dunno what that is this year…….
I think it’s WSS.
Wonderful mental gymnastics!!
A stretch for sure but considering how acutely aware the industry is of how dire it is out there for auteur-led studio fare, I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibilities to assume that they would support the most high-profile one of them this season.
WSS wins by default when the two so called front runners turn out to be duds ..Speilberg deserves to win another best director oscar too, but they”ll probably give it to Campionan, regardless
Hey Dave, my safe money is on Belfast – looks like the typical consensus candidate. But to be true, a couple of weeks ago I argued TPOTD could win based on the Academy´s choices in the past years (more edgy, leaned towards critical favorites). So let´s say, I´m pretty sure it will be one of those two! 😉
Neither of those two will win (frame this comment for posterity )
love your confidence
Okay, I´ll frame it.
Edit: And in case I forget it, I hope Claudiu is framing it, too.
I have him blocked. 🙂 I guess he called a lock… He tends to do that too much, anyway, from what I remember.
Didn’t you predict Nightmare Alley would win sight unseen? I don’t think that is panning out to well right now, so what is winning if it’s neither Belfast or TPOTD? A remake of a previous BP winner?
WSS will win
Hey Dominik – nice to read you! Yes, the contenders are as ever i guess like chalk and cheese. I am following the gurus more this year than I did last year to see the ebb and flow of feeling. The actor and actress has been shifting a lot in the past month and supporting are both in flux. It will take shape of course, and we are still in the pre-cursor stage, but happy i posed the question, as it got me to thinking and asking why the disconnect.
I think POTD is a beautifully directed film, and i am open to being dissuaded on an encore screening, but the sum of its parts are better than the whole, and it feels undercooked. I looked at the Netflix blurb on the streaming service, and it mis-represents for me, the movie. by listing it as “a rancher driven to dominate beast and brethren brutally undermines his brother’s new bride and her teen son”. That’s not what i experienced, and so at the end of the day, it becomes more style over substance. And I love Campion’s eye, her feel for landscape; her character detail and use of music But I don’t see it as a BP. Still to see Belfast, but it has been so trashed on this site, that my expectations are SO low!
it wasn’t brutal and it he didn’t torture anyone. At the risk of going over old ground – the hype and the blurb didn’t match the experience for me. Maybe it was too subtle for me. Maybe I need more overt. I am open to being challenged by a movie 🙂
Toby Young from the Spectator said the movie was ”howlingly bad and unwatchable ; a low budget film directed by a film student ” .. he’s never far out in his BP predictions
The contents of Toby Young’s mind do not get any more compelling or convincing or meaningful no matter how many times you post them.
We’ll see who was right in march
I’ve said nothing about whether I think BELFAST will win the Best Picture Oscar; I don’t think I’ve even said if I think it should. This is about Toby Young’s negative opinion being so outlandish and extravagant that he sounds like either a fool or a troll. There is surely a way to criticize BELFAST without coming across as a lunatic, but Toby Young has apparently not yet found it, if indeed he was ever looking.
Perhaps then the Netflix synopsis is bad, not the film, right?
whoa my head just spun – true, but if that’s the movie they think they financed or paid a truck load of cash for, it wasn’t what they ordered, from where i experienced it. I certainly don’t think the movie is bad, far from it; but from reviews and people here, i’d have thought it was better than the second coming! I think it is an excellent film – but the best of the year? Nup.
That’s absolutely fine, but I agree with you that Netflix has been leading really misleading campaigns, including for this film. The film was certainly not what I expected it to be from the trailer – but in the end, I judge the film for what it is (which I think is beyond excellent) and not for what the studio marketing department wants to sell it as.
yep you make a good point. I’m fallible, There I said it! i buy into hype and chatter and in the case of one of the best Director’s in the world (Campion) had high hopes. I am seeing lots of folks this season understandably looking to film and culture for some hope, and being somewhat let down by their unrealistic expectations.
No-one goes into a movie, hoping for a flop! Or even sitting down in front of your own TV. It is discombobulating when a movie doesn’t hit the mark I set for it, but it does for others. Happens to all of us at some stage…..
Oh and it’s one of the worst feelings, being disappointed in something made by a director you love, hyped by others as awesome! Happened to me with another film this year and it’s quite heartbreaking.
care to share the title? 🙂
The French Dispatch. (Still saddens me to admit it.)
ah ok, yes i understand – the affection for Wes Anderson is often palpable on sites like this. I’m sorry you had that experience. He does promise a lot, doesn’t always deliver.
The French Dispatch was insufferable
I just found it painfully inconsequantial and unengaging, even though its moments were entertaining.
I liked the Benicio del Toro prison sequence. That’s about it. As a fan of Wes Anderson it was as flat as day-old cola
I thought that one was overlong and largely uninteresting. I liked the middle bit with McDormand and Chalamet best.
But that´s clearly the best condition to be surprised! I find it sometimes difficult in all these Awards chatter to get perspectives straight, since the frontrunners get constantly written down. That happens every year and is an integral part of Awards specultion, I guess. In this case it´s probably important to point out that I don´t think “Belfast” is anywhere near “horrible”, I actually thought it´s a totally acceptable, charming little film. But if I have to value my take on it in relation to it being a possible Oscar Best Picture winner I clearly say: Please, no! You see, its complex. 😀
And regarding TPOTD, I do think I liked it better than you, but I clearly have to see it again. But I do agree that the description from the Netflix site you quoted is totally misleading. It´s not really a dramatic film in a traditional sense, more like a subtle take on archetypes that is clearly more about atmosphere and less plot-centered.
nicely expressed Dominik. I wish i could be that succinct and on point. 🙂
You are!
🙂
And the biggest challenge is that it’s a Jane Campion take on a dark novel. Which is what makes it great, as well as challenging.
3 for Dune? Nice!…
AM I the only one to think that CODA has a much better chance of winning than conventional wisdom is giving it. It’s a well-made crowd-pleasing family drama that actually forces its audience to think (if only a little.) It’s got no real negatives.
A more cynical take from the typical privileged Academy member- “Oh, look at this cute movie about a poor deaf family. It made me cry!”
Too small and tiny a film. In theme and scale.
Yes. It has no chance of winning.
It would seem less and less likely as it fails to garner nominations and wins in the precursor awards that are in full swing.
You’re not the only one because it is the only film that you actually feel something for and emotion plays a huge part in voting. Pay no mind to what the critics say, they’re still waiting for that Boyhood/Roma train to arrive. This last shot alone has more heart than all of the other “contenders” have put together.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b446951a1bde9e2de4d9f227b8087d84a4fddc8aa646740bc3bbc2d8410a41be.gif
It’s too small, and it would have to win adapted screenplay, which right now seems to be the biggest lock of them all. It has a big chance in supporting actor tho, and if it managed an upset in AS, it could have a chance.
Side note : 20 critics groups have spoken. We are roughly half way there. This is the early consensus from them. It can’t be emphasised enough that they don’t really predict the Oscar winners, their powers pretty much end with giving enough good buzz to their winners to land Oscar nominations (most of the time).
BEST PICTURE – The Power of the Dog (7)
BEST DIRECTOR – Jane Campion (13)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – Paul Thomas Anderson (6)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – Jane Campion (11)
LEAD ACTRESS – Kristen Stewart (11)
LEAD ACTOR – Benedict Cumberbatch (10)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Ariana DeBose (5), Kirsten Dunst (4)
SUPPORTING ACTOR – Kodi Smith-McPhee (11)
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c75892b89a7731a9cc7f9b1a007ed5449887c1a518e4b2c737f95f486c4a8e65.png
Side note : 20 critics groups have spoken. We are roughly half way there. This is the early consensus from them. It can’t be emphasised enough that they don’t really predict the Oscar winners, their powers pretty much end with giving enough good buzz to their winners to land Oscar nominations (most of the time).
BEST PICTURE – The Power of the Dog (7)
BEST DIRECTOR – Jane Campion (13)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – Paul Thomas Anderson (6)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – Jane Campion (11)
LEAD ACTRESS – Kristen Stewart (11)
LEAD ACTOR – Benedict Cumberbatch (10)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Ariana DeBose (5), Kirsten Dunst (4)
SUPPORTING ACTOR – Kodi Smith-McPhee (11)
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c75892b89a7731a9cc7f9b1a007ed5449887c1a518e4b2c737f95f486c4a8e65.png
A nice and healthy amount of teal on this!
The only film leading in picture AND director AND writing AND acting.
The Power of the Dog is definitely the critics darling of the season, I will be curious to see how much of this early love will turn into Oscar love. For now I think Campion will win at least one (BD) and looks good for a second, too (Adapted) and I could definitely see a semi-surprising upset in the acting categories, Cumberbatch or Dunst.
But of course if West Side Story emerges in the Guild/Bafta stage that could be bad news for The Power of the Dog since their best shots at big wins are in the same categories : picture, director, adapted screenplay, supporting actress.
So why then is TPOTD leading for BP? I assume the pundits know critics don’t equal industry, but they are still choosing it. Why is that?
Pundits always go with the flow. Currently TPOTD is dominating the critics group stage so they all have that at #1. But if WSS starts dominating the guilds, they will switch. And if Belfast pulls off a Bafta sweep of some sort, they will switch again. Same old same old.
Not sure if Cumberbatch would really be an upset at this point – I kinda expect him to take BAFTA (unless Washington takes it) and then he may as well be considered the frontrunner.
As for WSS, it certainly remains a threat, but it would have to start beating The Power of the Dog in either Directing or Adapted Screenplay at some point – so far, hasn’t really happened. All eyes on BFCA, where Sam Mendes started his Directing streak.
I agree, Cumberbatch is definitely giving presumed frontrunner Will Smith a run for his money. And I still wouldn’t rule out Andrew Garfield, either, whose performance could greatly appeal to SAG voters and he also has hometown advantage at the Baftas.
I don’t think it’s Garfield’s year. Hell get nominated, but he’s not a serious contender
Again tell me why the film leading in 5 out of the 7 major categories it is eligible for, is leading best picture wins, and is leading predictions for Oscar BP, cannot win BP?
Because the critics darling of the season rarely wins BP, mainly because these awards are determined by tiny groups of film critics (I think NYFCC has 51 members and they are one of the “big” ones) with zero Academy overlap meanwhile the Oscars are determined by thousands of industry professionals and that includes a lot of Guild / Bafta voters. If The Power of the Dog manages to get proper BP love from them (SAG Ensemble / PGA win / Bafta BP win), then it will be definitely the official frontrunner.
But with critics only at the moment, it is the “early” frontrunner. And those very VERY rarely win. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, A Star Is Born, Roma, Dunkirk, Three Billboards, La La Land, Boyhood, Zero Dark Thirty, Hugo, The Social Network, come to mind from just the last decade or so.
Those films you listed were not the “critical darlings”. They were early frontrunners in Oscar pundit world.
Parasite won the majority of critics’ circles, not Hollywood or 1917.
Roma won the critics, not A Star is Born.
Get Out and Lady Bird were biggest with the critics, not Three Billboards.
What you describe (“early frontrunner”) I think aligns more with Belfast this year – not many actual awards yet, but the punditry think it is the one to beat.
Fair enough, I just put the presumed early frontrunners and the critics darlings under the same umbrella.
The early frontrunner has actually been Belfast out of TIFF this year.
NONE of Belfast or Power of theDog deserve to win best picture or screenplay. Frankly only way Campion deserves win best director is if Ridley Scott is denied directing Oscar nom if he nominated he ought to win for his completely online hated on awards season sniping undermine ” the last duel'” it was well constructed , was not overcome incredibly engaging and unique approach story telling for old style medieval epic and easily strongest acting ensemble out of all contenders. ONLY reason (i hope i wrong) The Last Duel be snubbed in majorcategories ? Is simply cos for the woke pigs corrupting all was once valued by film going public bout Oscar back 20 yrs ago been relegated to thescrapheap.
It seems u either need to go total modern progressive in a film to accept now dominating toxic group think wrecking Academy’s vredibility I’m most pples eyes, and contributing enormously annihilating their once decent ratings ( 15 yrs ago) … or film like last duel which cos it setting means it just not ‘ woke enough’ which is utter bullshit it expertly weaves these abuse story without taking away from authenticity of setting and Scott keen eye on history of setting at the time..
But that not good enough fir awards season nowadays. Let see.. Angelica Huston been snubbed… neither Scott nor one his 2 films ( should b Last Duel) get nominated, and again lesser known films again dominating awards season..
= marginsl incrssse in audience ratings at BEST or I expect stagnation in public support ( again) … honestly it not gonna be much more sustainable for awards season go down this path.
Is it?
Wait, what was Anjelica Huston even in this year? Apart from narrating The French Dispatch, but I’m sure you don’t mean that.
Concerned my dear buddy that u ask that unless I mentioned wrong actress wasn’t she like u k
Now? Playing Aretha Franklin in RESPECT? SPEAKING OF WHICH , where on earth was the respect for RESPECT in awards season ey?
You mean Jennifer Hudson, not Anjelica Huston.
He means John Huston. We’re going to resurrect him and bring him back for one last hurrah
Why should bloated and paint-by-numbers biopics with a halfway-decent performance be afforded outsized respect?
“the woke pigs corrupting all was once valued by film”
You are the pig. You constantly are vomiting out hatred and it’s repugnant.
1917 was definitely not an early front runner. It was a late breaker.
True. It emerged in the Guild/Bafta stage.
I just read a winning critique for A Journal for Jordan. I think i’ll see that Xmas day. Who knows….it might sneak in as a best picture.
That certainly didn’t come across in the trailer which gave the impression of a Hallmark movie of the week.
Yowza.
1. Spider-Man: No Way Home $253m (3rd biggest domestic opening weekend ever; A+ CinemaScore, $587m worldwide)
2. Encanto 6.5m (81.5m)
3. West Side Story 3.42m (17.98m) -67%
4. Ghostbusters: Afterlife 3.4m (117.25m)
5. Nightmare Alley 2.96m
That Spider-Man opening is a Yowza. Especially in this Covid market, that’s an insane number. I might have to get on WSS and NA before they disappear.
This is a concern I have as well. I’m going to see Nightmare Alley by myself this week. But my fiancee wants to see West Side Story with me, and she doesn’t have time until the week after Christmas. Fingers crossed that it’s still in theaters at that point! Sadly, movies aren’t given a chance to build an audience these days. Titles come and go at an alarming rate.
WSS is in 2,820 theaters across the country as of today. I have high confidence you two will get to see it. 🙂
I mean, you’re probably right. But Spider-Man is taking up so many screens that it’s pushing other, less popular titles out. Plus theaters have to make way for The Matrix, Sing 2, A Journal For Jordan, and American Underdog in the wide market. And smaller, arthouse theaters need to make way for Licorice Pizza and Tragedy of Macbeth.
Yea. They’ll still be playing, but WSS is going to lose a lot of showings with 5 wide releases this week.
I was going to go today, but got a booster yesterday that put me on the couch today. 🙂 I think I’m going to go alone to Gucci tmrw, WSS Tues and then see NA next week with dad. Got Imax tix for Matrix Wed
Oops; didn’t take into account Journal for Jordan/American Underdog .
Theater count estimates per The-Numbers dt com:
Sing 2; 3,900
Matrix Resurrections: 3,500
The King’s Man: 3,100
A Journal for Jordan 2,200
American Underdog: “wide”.
In my country WSS is down to basically one screen at one theater with just one showing a day after it’s first week. Not looking good for the international market, so it needs to do well domestically.
I went to see it on Monday and it was the penultimate day I could see it here in Ploiesti, Romania. I was also the only one there.
The influence of LA/NY choices:
There have been 7 foreign language movies that have won BP either or both at these awards. Five of them made it to the BP lineup at the Oscars.
Z (NY)
Cries and Whispers (NY)
Amour (LA)
Roma (LA, NY)
Parasite (LA)
The two that didn’t make the list were:
Day for Night (NY) and Amarcord (NY).
But but but… Both of them did get nods for director *and* screenplay. And it’s safe to say with such support at the top level that in an expanded field, both would have made it to the BP lineup.
Fans of Drive My Car, start buying the champagne for the nomination day.
When Z pulled that off people at time thought it might win BP. Before Parasite happened that was the closest a foreign film came.
Crouching Tiger must have been pretty close too 🙂
Easy to forget that one!
Lee won DGA didn’t he?
Not to mention the BAFTA and Globe.
His loss to [one of the two] Soderbergh [options] puts him, ironically, in Mendes-loses-Oscar-to-Bong territory.
It was, in fact, by far the best precedent for that to happen, awards trajectory-wise.
Yes, he did!
Ummm Roma
Roma was done when it lost PGA
Well the counter-argument was that Roma came closer than Z, which is plausible.
Roma won DGA and had 10 nods, something Z didn’t achieve.
Except at the time of Z the NY award was seen as the barometer for Oscar
Well, like I said, this (which multiple people told me was likely to happen, therefore I kind of expected it, or was at least concerned it might happen) is pretty bad for Belfast, statistically. The last 15 Oscar Best Picture winners won at least two above-the-line awards from NBR/NYFCC/LAFCA (combined) and Branagh’s movie has only managed the one NBR win, which puts it in a worse position than Green Book, which managed to get NBR Best Picture, in addition to what Belfast has. A worse position in terms of this stat, anyway – overall, it’s still doing better. But, clearly, the stats favorite is now The Power of the Dog. (Which, however, can easily change, especially once the industry phase starts.)
In terms of my unofficial prediction, I’m sticking with Belfast because, while there are now multiple signs of weakness, they are there for The Power of the Dog, too (fewer and arguably less serious – NBR top 10 and Detroit Best Picture misses – but not negligible), Belfast‘s NBR/NYFCC/LAFCA tally isn’t that far from Green Book‘s anyway (plus there are several exceptions to this rule prior to this streak of 15 years and, arguably, Argo is one within it, too, since it only got, in addition to LAFCA screenplay, two special awards from NBR, definitely borderline, so the stat is certainly beatable – but the rule also works as two awards of any kind, of which at least one above the line, one that Belfast still doesn’t fit, whereas Argo does), I still don’t believe in The Power of the Dog being a BP winner (even more so after I saw it last night – for the record, not a fan: very good-looking and well-acted and stuff, but didn’t grab me whatsoever… Cumberbatch’s character was the only one I found interesting, but they didn’t really do anything special, even with him… and the ending, honestly, felt kind of forced, not fully earned), it won Phoenix FCS Best Picture (as I said, the most predictive award for the BP Oscar outside of the PGA) and the AFI Special Award has, for BP nominees, always resulted in either a BP or BD win at the Oscars, thus far. Presumably, Belfast isn’t winning just director, so… Of course, this is a sample of 4 – although in reality it’s larger than that, because it also counts that they’ve never given that award to anything not strong enough to win BP or BD, of the (evidently, non-American) theatrical feature films under consideration, in any year. At any rate, to me it just feels like a stronger clue than the pure numbers suggest it is. And, like I said, there are many other clues.
Now, the movies that did pass the NBR/NYFCC/LAFCA test:
The Power of the Dog – NYFCC/BD+Actor+Sup.Actor LAFCA/BD+Sup.Actor(tie)+Cinematography
Licorice Pizza – NBR/BP+BD+Haim&Hoffman(breakthrough) NYFCC/Screenplay
Drive My Car – NYFCC/BP LAFCA/BP+Screenplay
The Tragedy of Macbeth – NBR/Screenplay+Cinematography NYFCC/Sup.Actress
West Side Story – NBR/Actress NYFCC/Cinematography LAFCA/Sup.Actress
King Richard – NBR/Actor+Sup.Actress
These six, beyond a shadow of a doubt. And, going by the “Argo definition”:
A Hero – NBR/Screenplay+FF
I’m glad West Side Story is among these. The Globe screenplay snub stat is a tough one to overcome (unless it turns out those stats truly don’t matter this year), but it’s definitely beatable. Probably about as beatable as this NBR/NYFCC/LAFCA stat Belfast has to contend with. It’s on a 16/16 streak, but there are 3 exceptions in the last 31 years, for instance and they were even more frequent before that. It’s only at 86% overall, in years with 5 movies nominated in the category. What’s more troubling is the fact that it’s a remake of a former BP winner. But I guess the sample is low for that one, so this could also be beatable. For now, Belfast still seems more likely to me, among these two, but West Side Story is my “backup” prediction. Both might lose to the current stats favorite, clearly. It’s harder to see a fourth movie win from here. The others have shown a bit too much weakness already. (I guess not Licorice Pizza, but I still just don’t see that one getting it done.)
The table (top 20), updated with this stat and the London FCC top 10 – Belfast drops to fourth:
The Power of the Dog – 55 26
West Side Story – 54 26
Licorice Pizza – 53 26
Belfast – 51 25
Dune – 42 19
Don’t Look Up – 33 15
King Richard – 32 15
CODA – 27 12
The Lost Daughter – 22 10
tick, tick…BOOM! – 20 9
Drive My Car – 17 8
Nightmare Alley – 17 8
Being the Ricardos – 16 7
Cyrano – 13 6
The Tragedy of Macbeth – 11 7
A Hero – 9 4
Mass – 8 4
Pig – 8 4
Spencer – 7 4
The Green Knight – 6 3
Great as always.
Are you factoring theatrical vs streaming? With all the angst about non superhero cinema I wonder if this is a potential landmine for the Netflix roster.
No, I only count precursor stats. 🙂 No Metacritic/RT stuff, either, for example. But I agree it’s a factor – it should be reflected in the stats at some point, though, if so. In the industry portion, if not before.
LOL the great stats master is going for #4 for BP rather than #1 on their fancy calculation table because…wait for it…they didn’t like #1 that much, so may be some stats won’t matter/can be overcome this year. LOL.
That Dawg wont hunt …it’s a dud
I still don’t believe in The Power of the Dog being a BP winner (even more so after I saw it last night)
What was your prejudice against Dog winning *before* you saw it?
The very low IMDb score. And the style I assumed it employed, which sounded very Academy-unfriendly to me. Turns out it’s even drier than I thought… 🙂 (I had expected a lot more tension and drama, at least.) I guess the ending could prove to hold great power for a lot of people, particularly in 2021, so it might win because of that. But that requires some suspension of disbelief on my part, because for me it felt unearned, like I said. So I’ll have to get to it being the winner via stats (like I did with Nomadland and like I almost did with Moonlight). Logically, for now, I still don’t get why it would be. (And I don’t think Campion is a good enough reason – different voting systems. She can win director and they’ll probably feel they’ve done enough and vote for their favorite in picture, which I’m assuming usually won’t be this. She’ll also need a lot fewer votes to win in director, whereas in picture her movie will need to be ranked higher on more ballots than the most popular movie in the lineup besides itself. I also don’t really think Zhao was the main reason Nomadland won last year. I think it moved and spoke to people. (Myself included, even if it was no Promising Young Woman…) I didn’t get it until I saw it. With TPOTD, I’ve seen it, but I still don’t get it. (Why it would speak to people. A majority, I mean.)
Thanks. I haven’t seen it. I stopped reading after “very low IMDB score”. That’s enough legitimate reason. Don’t want to be spoiled. 🙂
🙂 Understandable – although I wouldn’t say I spoiled anything. But if one is prone to overthinking things (which I certainly am) one can perhaps be spoiled even by non-specific comments, so that’s fair. Better to be safe.
I’m not sure the low IMDb score (which is now a bit higher, at a 7) is legitimate-enough, but it’s always been something I look at to gauge a movie’s overall popularity. This may or may not be a good approach, but it seems to work most of the time. Certainly didn’t when The Shape of Water won, though, for instance… Or when Moonlight beat La La Land. (Although those were/are still both higher than TPOTD, at 7.3 and 7.4, respectively.) But it still makes sense to me, logically, so I don’t think it’s silly to look at it, particularly in that pre-awards phase, when there really aren’t many other measurable clues to latch onto…
The title also didn’t/doesn’t sound like a BP winner to me. Sounds a bit weird, and not in the way they like to go for. Too many words, too. Doesn’t tend to fare well – although better when it’s also the title of the book it’s adapted from, so that might help. Who knows?!
i think critics are drawn to Power of the Dog simply because it transcends its genre to become something else by movie’s end. It’s well made. It surprises.
But I don’t it has any mainstream appeal. My facebook feed is completely filled with mainstream America – I can’t detect if anyone even watched it.
It would do better with a non pref ballot as it has enthusiastic but narrow support
Yeah, critics love it when their expectations are subverted. (Probably because they watch too many movies – nature of the job. Because of that, they treat anything good that’s even remotely different like it’s the Second Coming… Often, even when it’s obviously lacking in certain areas. That’s a generalization, of course – I’m sure not all of them do that. But most of them do.)
Personally, as long as something isn’t predictable in a way that makes it seem inauthentic (I’m very big on authenticity), I don’t really care whether it’s going to surprise me or not. I just care that it be an interesting story well told. It can even be formulaic – if the story it tells within that formula and the characters it’s about are interesting and authentic and I connect with them, I’m still going to love it. Don’t know if this is “correct” and don’t care. 🙂
TPOTD, for me, however well-made, just wasn’t an interesting story. The movie version, at least. (But it clearly was for many people. Online and in critical circles, anyway. Indeed, like you say, outside of those two groups… there might be some issues for it, as evidenced by its audience scores.)
That’s right ; when I read metacritic and RT I always look at the viewers ratings just to get an idea of what regular folks think about a movie
I went to see the Dawg with high hopes after reading the positive reviews but I literally fell aspleep during the two hours + of tedium ; I woke up near the end expecting a climax but instead found it fizzled out …there were only six other people watching it on a saturday night and I got the sense that they felt the same way about it as I did
Like Roma it will probably win BD and lose BD to something more accessable like WSS
I know that WSS has had up till now a slow response at the BO but that’s because its a remake ; I was sceptical about seeing it but when I did I was hugely impressed and so I think that word will spread about just how good it is and its BO ratings will increase
I think that out of the three movies, Dawg, Belfast and WSS , it will appeal to the average over fifty voters
I knew that you wouldn’t spoil plot points, but I tend to avoid reading detailed critical takes on a not yet seen movie. I never read reviews before seeing a movie. Not that I would get influenced, but I want my experience watching the movie to be one-on-one and not an orgy. 🙂
I think an audience score is an important factor. Not end all be all, but pre guilds helpful. I’ve used to RT audience score to gauge tight races. One has to be careful with the ratings though. I think as time wears on, the scores get skewed because viewers are not necessarily reacting to the movie itself by reacting to the “hype” it gets. I remember Moonlight’s score took a dive after it won BP b/c (1) people had higher expectation; (2) it beat their favorite or (3) it is seen by the general mass that was not the intended audience.
As for the title, I think The Power of the Dog is not really a hindrance. (Long title winner is rare but No Country For Old Men is a weirder title). The word “power” can conjure a feeling that this movie is powerful. I think it’s better than Belfast which feels too specific and insular. It’s a movie about that foreign place and not really about me.
“I tend to avoid reading detailed critical takes on a not yet seen movie.”
Oh, me too – it’s risky. I also don’t watch trailers, except when truly on the fence about whether to watch a certain movie.
“Not that I would get influenced, but I want my experience watching the movie to be one-on-one and not an orgy. :)”
:)) What a weird way to put it!…
“I remember Moonlight’s score took a dive after it won BP”
Its IMDb score, too? Interesting… I still think 3L must have had the higher score at the time. I don’t remember whether I checked or not. I also don’t think The Shape of Water dropped much after its win. But yes, of course, it’s like you say, the results might be skewed – although members of the Academy might react in very similar ways to hype and other such factors. Those tendencies may well be reflected in their votes as well… (I’m talking about only what happens during an Oscar season, this time.)
“Long title winner is rare but No Country For Old Men is a weirder title”
Also based on literature, by the way. 🙂 Likewise, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King… (Meanwhile, a lot of strong BP contenders with long titles not based on books have lost – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, etc.) As for The Power of the Dog, it just sounds clumsy to me, somehow… Most BP-winning titles “flow” a bit more than that. The “dog” at the end feels like it doesn’t belong in there. (I wasn’t aware of the Bible quote – maybe most people are. Maybe it doesn’t sound as weird to somebody who is.) It’s a very subjective thing and I’m probably wrong (irrespective of whether it wins or not) but to me, somehow, it just doesn’t sound like a potentially BP-winning title. Sounds off…
Ha. I should have said one-on-one dialogue w/ the movie and not with an orgy of other thoughts. 🙂
I didn’t pay attention to IMDB score, but ML took a dive at RT audience score. What this means is that it’s hard to look back and say ML’s score is worse than LLL yet it won unless you were able to record the scores before the Oscars. I do remember that its RT score was higher than LLL before the Oscars. And yes the hype around LLL at that point might have been a contributing factor to its lowering score, so if you’re going to predict the upcoming Oscars, *then* would be the time to gauge.
:))
“I do remember that its RT score was higher than LLL before the Oscars.”
The audience score, right? I’ll write that down somewhere, for future reference. Don’t think I was even aware of the RT audience score yet that year. I only knew about IMDb as a barometer of general audiences’ tastes.
Yes, audience.
Nomadland was a zeitgeist type of movie about economic malaise and despair that many voters, especially in the guilds, could identify with
WSS is a zeitgeist type movie too in regards to ethnic rivalry and strife ; a microcosm of contemporary America where the divisions are becoming wider by the month ..a candle burning from both ends. Moreover, I think that WSS with its ode to nostalgia appeals to the age group of the voters more so than the other two ; another reason why I suspect it will win BP !
Claudiu, an excellent analysis, as always. I was beyond gratified to read your assessment of The Power of the Dog and find that your misgivings about the movie sound quite like my own. But are they actually similar? You can check out my review here:
https://moviestruck.substack.com/
(btw, subscriptions are free)
Awesome! I’ll read it later and get back to you. 🙂 In a big hurry right now…
Thanks very much.
And I did subscribe. 🙂
Thanks.
My pleasure! Literally. 🙂
Great review! Agree with it wholeheartedly, as expected. So you’ve read the novel as well – very nice! Indeed, I can imagine it’s a lot more interesting than the movie, in terms of character development (and their inner lives), the things it’s saying and so on. The movie is, as far as I’m concerned, mostly archetypes and vague notions that don’t come to much of anything. I feel like we’ve seen most of these characters (and themes) before (in essence, even if not necessarily in the details), presented in more interesting ways and situations, and I doubt one can say that about the book. (Therefore, I “blame” the screenplay and direction.)
“The script lets Rose buckle too easily to Phil’s cruelty, and the more we see and hear her wail, the more wearying and baffling she becomes.”
Yes, I was surprised by how much I didn’t connect with her character and, by extension, how unimpressed I was with her performance. But I guess that’s a bit unfair – she probably does just about the best she can with a surprisingly flat role. I guess it makes some sense thematically (the more helpless she appears, the more we should relate to Peter’s acute desire to rescue her), but it makes for dreary and unemotional viewing.
I know everybody loves The Piano (I assume you do as well – just statistically), but for me that, too, was, from what I remember, a disappointing one, and largely for the same reason: Campion’s characters (and stories) just don’t do anything for me. I’m still going to watch Bright Star at some point, but I guess I’m not expecting much from it anymore, now that I’m ever more convinced that this is a problem I have with her movies in general…
“The movie reduces sometimes desolate, sometimes resilient people into servants of Campion’s lofty art, letting quaintly arranged effects stand in for the anguish that inspired actors actually could have played. […] I wish the movie gave off more of the scent of pain, risk and danger, the nervous sweat that becomes palpable when secrets are desperately clung to.”
Exactly! There’s just no real drama/tension. There’s a lot under the surface, suggested, implied, but there’s, unfortunately, close to nothing on the surface. Nothing particularly interesting, anyway…
One quick note: the photo caption reads “Jodi Smit-McPhee” – a misprint, clearly. (His first name is only spelled wrong there.) I assume you would prefer to know about it, so you can correct it. (I know I would, in a similar situation. I was recently corrected on something similar in one of my posts, in fact, and I was grateful for it. I hate the idea of having such things in my posts. That’s why I edit… a lot… Usually, anyway – occasionally, there just isn’t time.) Otherwise I wouldn’t even bother to mention it, since it’s obviously got nothing to do with the quality of the review, which, as I said, is excellent and very informative, at least in my opinion. 🙂
First, thanks SO much for catching that spelling error, which I’ve now corrected, and you were generous and thoughtful to mention it.
I haven’t seen The Piano, but I have seen The Portrait of a Lady, and there, too, Campion’s “senstitivity” isn’t nearly as deeply-lodged and tangled as the emotions in the novel she’s adapting.
But mostly thanks for “getting” my review of The Power of the Dog so completely. Some of your sentences I wish I’d been insightful enough to include in my review. Great summing up on your part.
Most don’t agree with us, and the movie seems on the way to even greater acclaim. But I don’t think it will win the Oscar BP, which I’ve just read is pretty much your sense, too. Your clear writing in that post is succinct and absolutely on point. I may be prognosticating incorrectly, but I don’t think Dog‘s gloomy tone quite suits the industry’s, AMPAS’, the country’s or the world’s mood at this moment of pandemic and deep divisions.
Of course I still have things to see, some of them dark, like The Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley and, I gather, Drive My Car. Those aren’t upbeat, either. But deep down I just don’t think Dog‘s piercing doom will make many enthusiastically rank it #1. But maybe enough #2s and #3s will push it over the top.
In any case, I’m thrilled that you took the time to read me. And to subscribe to MovieStruck. You’re quite an addition to my list.
Oh, yeah, The Portrait of a Lady – that’s got to be my favorite of hers so far! I always forget it’s a Campion. 🙂 I don’t love even that one, fully, but it’s closer to my tastes than her other stuff I’ve seen. (I’m speaking from vague memories here – I might not have seen it since adolescence. But I remember liking it and it’s stayed in my mind as a good one.)
“But mostly thanks for “getting” my review of The Power of the Dog so completely. Some of your sentences I wish I’d been insightful enough to include in my review. Great summing up on your part.”
Thank you for that! I’m glad I wasn’t too far off… 🙂 But, anyway, my style is too blunt (and my perspective often a bit too subjective, which I make no secret of – that’s how I experience movies and that’s how I like it), which is why I tend to not try to review things myself. I write down some things for myself, after watching certain movies, just to clarify my own thoughts, but that’s about it. Your writing is far more elegant and sounds much better. 🙂
Yeah, it would be quite bizarre if this movie won Best Picture. It just seems a bit too far away from their tastes as we know them. Even for 2021-2022, after we’ve seen quite a few atypical winners recently. But we could be wrong, for sure! The stats will let us know soon enough…
“I don’t think Dog’s gloomy tone quite suits the industry’s, AMPAS’, the country’s or the world’s mood at this moment of pandemic and deep divisions.”
Great point! I hadn’t even considered that angle. (About the overall mood in the world right now.)
“But deep down I just don’t think Dog’s piercing doom will make many enthusiastically rank it #1. But maybe enough #2s and #3s will push it over the top.”
Feels like the kind of movie that would be quite a bit on the divisive side, though… But maybe the universal critical acclaim, among other things, will help it reach that status of a high-on-most-ballots type of contender, indeed. Would be weird, but who knows?!
The Dawg has enthusiastic but narrow support that’s completely unsuitable to the pref ballot , whereas WSS has as a crowd pleaser broad support that crucially skews to the over fifty crowd that’s typical voters
AS usual I agree with you and after watching all three movies I think that WSS wins by default as Belfast and the Dawg are art-house type movies that impress the critics and movie snobs but have little appeal for the working folks in the guilds etc, who I suspect will be bored by them .. the pref ballot works in WSS favour as being more populatist and a crowd pleaser, while the Dawg has narrow but enthusiastic support
..OR GIVEN THE themes or subject matter of likes of overly exaggerated supposed ‘deserved’ fronrunners in ‘ Power of the Dog’ and ‘ Drive my Car’ and to lesser extent ‘ Belfast’ , and ‘Licorice Pissa to even lesser extent’, maybe this is all symptomatic of taking for granted as Hollywood seems to when high profile films / award season and TV SERIES ADAPTATIONS LIKE CERTAIN SUSPECT WHERE MANY INC ME DEEPLY SCEPTICAL AND FEARFUL OF EXTENT THAT POLITICAL CORRECTNESS AND DEVIATING INTENTIONS BY THE PRODUCERS OF LOTR THE AMASON TV SERIES WILL COMPRISE..GIVEN THEIR MISGUIDED DECISION AS STATED THIS IS ADDED TO THIS THE SACKING OF THE PRODUCERS ONLY TOLKIEN SCRIBE A MAIN CAST LEAD WHO LEFT A YEAR OR SO AGO, AND DEPARTURE OF JOHN HOWE ORIGINAL ARTISTIC MAESTRO WHO DID FULL JUSTICE TO TOLKIENS LITERAL DESCRIPTION INTO MOST STUNNING ARTISTIC ACHIEVEMENT PAYING FULL RESPECT TO TOLKIEN IN THE LOTR AND HOBBIT TRILOGIES..as decribed below most of us we should all be deeply concerned bout the direction of the ‘woke modernisation of hollywood’ more like a perversion frankly what hollywood should stand for ..
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5365f7c34db1c5240a101f696127fef6e25000c45e54c853fbcac14f0101b78a.jpg
How do we remotely disable your caps lock
By not reading it.
OH FOR FUKS SAKE MAY LORD HAVE MERCY ON US ALL!! JUST… NO! not because ‘drive my car’ is a foreign film directed by a foreign filmmaker nobody should ever have anything aginst that winning but ait because we HAD FOREIGN FLMMAKERS DOMINATE ABSOLUTELY DOMINATE AWARDS SEASON IN 4 OF THE LAST SIX YEARS ABOUT OR GIVE OR TAKE 4 IN THE LAST EIGHT YEARS 4!! is just too much honestly? of my bottom preferences win big prise for best picture.. this years oscars go like this for there is one that is BELOW Power of the Dog for me and few others..and i reckon more against Power of the Dog winning and sweeping all major categroies esp best picture than what being commented on here.. but if it were possible sotry and concept wise i read on ‘drive my car’ .
This is BY FAR WELL BELOW power of the dog the most uneventful least enthusiastic conceptually, character and story wise you can get.. in ‘drive my car’ parasite won with foreign filmmaker not long ago.. pedro almodovar won twice in last decade as did Del Toro best director..twice give me a break will ya? fuk me dead seriously? when ARE THE ACADEMY GONNA RECONNECT WITH THE GUILDS AND GLOBES AND BAFTA COMMON SENSE STOP ABANDONING THE TRUE HEART AND SOUL FILMMAKERS THAT ONCE MADE AMPAS RELEVANT TO MOST OF US?
IT NOT BOUT WHETHER FOREIGN FILMMAKER WINS AGAIN OR NOT IN FUTURE IF IT BEST FILM OF YEAR COURSE THEY SHOULD IT BOUT FREQUENCY IT FAR TOO MUCH TOO SOON NOW..IT JUST LUDICROUS I HOPE THE LA FILM CRITICS CHOICE DOES NOT REFLECT IN AWARDS SEASON MAJOR WINNER OUTCOMES!
Since I won’t be seeing it at least for probably a little while, how different is Drive My Car from something like Asako I & II or Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy? I just noticed that Manohla Dargis, who from what I recall ripped Asako I & II apart on the Film Comment podcast, named it the best movie of the year. So is it considerably different from those or do the people who love it seemingly react more strongly to it because it’s a refinement of the brilliant stuff in those movies?
Drive my car has this “film-fleuve” sense of spontaneous development without taking time in consideration, as he did in Happy hour. Wheel and Asako, on the other hand, though fascinating in their own way, had more of a consistent structure and were more defined.
It’s very different from Asako. It shows great growth from Hamaguchi. It has some legit great passages that recall Bergman and Nuri Bilge Ceylan. Where Asako was pulp, Drive My Car is elegant and sure handed.
I haven´t seen Asako I & II but if I should compare Drive my car to Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy I would say – apart from Wheel having an episodical structure and being probably tonally more playful – the films are not that different. Both are heavy on dialogues with a strong tendency towards long takes and dialogues. Drive my Car felt to me more philosophical in a sense that it reminded me a little on Bergman, but certainly not as brutal as Bergman can be. In contrary its a very affecionate study on the maladies of human existence.
In line with the Petite Maman win. I’m hoping for Neon to campaign hard for it. Like it has a shot for BP despite not being France’s International film bet, if only they would campaign it the same way as Spencer. I couldn’t believe it wasn’t even included on Neon Rated’s awards FYC site despite being in their screening pack.
The film is going to be the best reviewed film of the year. Not to mention, with enough awareness among Academy voters, they can easily put it on this holiday season to watch with the whole family as it’s a lean 72 minutes unlike the 3-hour running time of Drive My Car. In short, this little gem should be seen my more people!
I saw the film and I still don’t get it. Please what was the significance of the girl she met being *** ***. (Non-spoiler version)
Nothing and everything, I guess. The connection they find is the main concept of the film, given that connection is under strain with the adult version.
I consider that encounter with the other child as a vision of her mother’s mourning, as an understanding of the world the adult had just lost.
I guess that’s the beauty of the film, isn’t it? I love that despite its themes and genre elements, Sciamma didn’t reduce it to spoon feed her audience and the details are up for different interpretations, depending on how a person views it.
But, will it qualify? Has it played in a theater in LA/NYC for the required week??
I think it will be eligible since it’s included in Neon’s awards FYC package. It’s just so frustrating that it wasn’t even on their FYC page online.
Neon can say what they want, but it has to play in a theater in LA or NYC in the next week
I finally saw Belfast and was disappointed. Unless one lived there then, it’s hard to get involved with the “cute” locals and their problems. The politics lack all nuance. Still I think there will be a pic/director split and Belfast seems poised for pic.
Having not seen it, I’m thinking the same thing will happen. (I’ll know more when I see it!)
It’s a memory-play from the perspective of childhood. Branagh likely did not have a strong grasp of political nuance as a child.
I got involved with the locals (‘cute’ or otherwise) and their problems. I didn’t live there then (or ever). Did you?
Yes, it wasn’t a very good movie.
Having seen both Belfast and WSS, and not yet Dog. I think WSS has a better chance winning pic than Belfast. As I agree w/ your assessment of Belfast. I just don’t think anyone outside of Ireland care all that much about the going-ons in the movie.
They won’t give best picture to a film that’s going to lose close to $100 million dollars.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/905c6bbdcd2a6dc830c560a671bc5abc0b96604969d6b4934b0bcd82baa73b9c.gif
I said WSS has a better chance than Belfast. I didn’t say that it’s going to win. 🙂
No, Belfast has a very good chance to win. WSS has 0.0% chance to win.
If WSS has 0% chance of winning, then Belfast has less than that, which is 0. In my current estimation.
I cared. So did Toronto festival audiences. They can’t all be Irish tourists.
I don’t think the Toronto audience would be as critical as AMPAS voters.
I can see Belfast playing well in a packed theater at a celebratory film festival after a depressing isolated year, an experience that most AMPAS won’t have b/c most will watch it on screeners at home.
Despite my grandmother coming from that region, nothing about that feature-length digital video strikes me as one I wish to see.
Belfast is woefully overrated.
If the naysayers continue at this pace, it’ll soon be underrated.
It got 11 noms at the critics choice, 7 at the golden globes, is poised to get nominated in every important guild and have 8+ noms at the oscars. A movie with those numbers can never be underrated, no matter if users on diqus (myself included) think it is mediocre and just like, write our opinions.
So happy to see the Belfast comments here; I thought it was me missing something. It seemed like a Netflix quickie, and I was bored because nothing engaged me…not the family, not the politics, not even the beautiful Jamie Dornan.
Dornan is the best part of the whole thing, and that’s not saying much.
It’s completely unrelatable on an emotional level.
That’s precisely my reaction: I could not relate at all to any of the characters, especially the cute stereotypical grandparents whom we have seen in hundreds of films. Agree about Dornan.
I get that it’s from a child’s perspective, and it’s a good enough Film, it just lacks depth. It doesn’t deserve BP. A scene that really bugged me was when the mother took the son back to return the soap powder DURING a riot. Really?
It’s the principle. She wanted to teach him a hard-but-important lesson.
Yes. And the scene after that which I shall not reveal is so poorly filmed it’s amateur central by Kenneth Branagh.
Forward your advice to KB’s agent and perhaps we’ll even get a Lucas/Spielberg-style revisionist re-release.
I can believe it.
Call me strange.
Every mother has their own methods and their own priorities in raising children.
I believed hers.
Yeah, but don’t you see”? This is a movie! It gotta have dramatic flourishes!
That’s one of the problems watching Belfast for me. I was always aware of it being a movie with every cinematic gimmick throwing at me at every minute. It’s not a deep digging memoir, but more of a Cliff Notes run through.
I also don’t know what Ciaran Hinds or Catriona Balfe did to justify their frontrunner, or near to frontrunner status. They were good but nowhere close to award worthy or great performances. Give me Kirsten Dunst, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Vincent Lindon, Jason Isaacs and Ann Dowd any day for the win!
CH and CB are not the current front-runners. KS-M can be considered so for the moment, but Supporting Actress doesn’t really have one yet; the various support has been far too split.
oh god for a moment you were taking in code! CH, CB KS-M – either that or i was having a stroke! )
It’s intended to save effort in typing 🙂
it tested this old fossil. who, the what now?
Balfe is not the frontrunner in supporting actress, Ariana deBose is.
Inspired picks by the LAFCA as always! Would have wanted a Kirsten Dunst win but Penelope Cruz made up for it and her performance in Parallel Mothers won’t let this year slip away without a fight! Love the Vincent Lindon win for Supporting Actor and Barb and Star Go to Vista del Mar for Production Design and gaining passionate votes for Music/Score. Can someone confirm if it’s still eligible for the Oscars next year? Technically it was just released this year. Another inspired choice was Petite Maman. I mean it doesn’t make sense having Drive My Car win Best Film and not Best Foreign Language Film but a win is a win and I prefer Sciamma’s over Hamaguchi’s to be honest.
But the real story here is that Ari Wegner is now poised to make history as the first woman to win a Cinematography Oscar. I repeat, ARI WEGNER IS NOW POISED TO MAKE HISTORY AS THE FIRST WOMAN TO WIN A CINEMATOGRAPHY OSCAR. What a way to represent the other lady cinematographers like Daria D’Antonio and Claire Mathon whom also are amongst the top cameraworks this year with their respective films.
Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar is not eligible for the Oscars this year as it was on last year’s eligibility list.
I steadfastly maintain there’s Greig Fraser and then there’s everyone else.
Unfortunately, yes. EPIC cinematography often takes the cake with the Oscars. Grieg Fraser is going to win followed by Janusz Kaminski. Sorry to all the ladies. And I just hope Belfast doesn’t get nominated in this category.
No less than 8 distinct foreign language films got mentions here, 9 if you include New Generation.
Vincent Lindon! Magnifique! One of the very best performances of the year. Well done, LAFCA.
Finally saw The Power of the Dog. I think I liked it, didn’t love it (*** out of ****), but above most of the other players I’ve seen so far. I could see Campion winning through the season but a bit of a Roma ending where a more mass audience film wins Picture. The only problem is, not sure what that is. Belfast still seems most likely? West Side Story maybe but has the two knocks of a weak box office narrative and being a remake. (Though, the likely GG win should help). Is there something else you all think could be a winner that’s not one of those three? Three months is a long time for narratives to change.
Also, I could see Cumberbatch winning even if Smith takes SAG, which currently seems likely to me.
It’s a rather difficult movie to “love,” even if you think (like I do) that it’s top-notch film making, conceptually and quality-wise.
It’s one of those films that rewards a second viewing, I went in knowing nothing and was stunned the first time. Took time to digest & stayed with me. The second time I really appreciate & loved it.
One of the interesting things about POTD is that even for those that didn’t like it or didn’t love it, they still acknowledge Campion’s direction. Rightfully so.
Finally, almost NO recognition for those awful, seen-one-you-seen-them-all biopics. Please let that continue to be a thing.
thank you! It’s the worst genre in all of film. I’d rather give the BEST pic Oscar to something like Human Centipede. At least the concept was original.
The controversy surrounding Pizza is getting louder.
What controversy?
I believe the age difference between the two main characters.
I thought it was the Asian joke & the MANAA (Asian network) coming out against it.
Both.
Seems overblown
Rewatch Rushmore and get back to us about this plot point
First time I hear Belle mentioned in this year’s award season. I guess American movie critics aren’t big fans of anime (except Ghibli).
what else do you think is worth a mention ? and no i’m not very familiar with anime…
Hey look. Another award that Kristen Stewart didn’t win. And if you peruse the RottenTomatoes reviews, there are some raves but also many critics citing her performance as the weakest thing about Spencer. Will any of this stop Sasha from trying to push the narrative that her crush is the favorite to win best actress? Not on your life.
Hey look, Phoenix didn’t win critics awards either. Banderas won more. Hey look, even critics chickened out and gave it to Boseman although they all called Hopkins GOAT in their reviews. Critics awards are no precursors. They don’t hurt but that’s all that is. A nice bonus.
Always find it curious (=ridiculous) how the RT audience score of 5.2 (that was suspiciously low even before the film was released) based on roughly 500 votes is brought up as “proof” that people hate this performance meanwhile the audience scores of 7.8 based on 78,000 votes (letterboxd) and the 6.9 based on 22,000 votes (IMDB) are completely ignored.
Low key feels like obvious facts and numbers are being ignored in order to support an agenda. And by agenda of course I mean a pretty standard Oscar-season-smear-campaign. Unless of course you want to argue that an audience score based on 500 votes is more representative of what the audience thinks of the film in question than an audience score based on 22,000/78,000 votes.
And Sasha is pushing the narrative of Stewart being the (early) frontrunner because she has a crush ? So tell me this : do the other 14 Gold Derby experts who have her at #1, have crushes, too ?
Your argument is lacking. And ignorant.
Ignorant is reading a post and arguing against a so-called point that was never claimed. Your second paragraph is a mess. Peruse the CRITICS’ reviews on RT. Next time don’t expect anyone to read for you.
At least have the common decency to respond under your original name, Michael B Jordan’s Pout.
I’m confused by the last statement…..I don’t think Stewart has ever been her crush this season—that place in her heart is reserved only for Jennifer Hudson.
Thrilled to see Drive my car winning.
I see some comments against it because of Dune underperforming here. Just a reminder, Villeneuve’s first nomination was in Best Foreign Language Film with Incendies, a psychological drama about a lebanese refugee in Canada and her family. You never know which artsy-fartsy director will make your favorite blockbuster ten years from now. Hamaguchi being acknowledged, specially in a ten slots year, is a good thing.
Dune will perform with flying colours in nomination night, for sure. Hope Drive my car gets 4 noms.
It’s just that the production design award was such a farce-a-palooza. Compare Dune’s PD to the winner. It’s like, if it’s a video game, Call of Duty vs. Elf Bowling.
That resort is too die for that I’d like to experience in-person and the laboratory was an ingenious production design work. It’s a deserved pick and not just the typical Oscar-predicting waste of citation that nobody really cared about.
Haven’t seen the other film but for sure I think Dune’s production design is worth of the big prize. Don’t think Vista del mar will go any further from here so Dune’s chances are intact.
Loved Incendies, was in my Top 10 that year. Beautiful movie
Incendies is a masterpiece. My #2 that year.
One of the greatest shocks of these last years. I saw the play, in Spanish. The chills.
visually arresting and visceral too from memory
Love Incendies. One of the most iconic shots during its decade. I really hope Villeneuve returns to those roots. It’s where he is really at his best over soulless VFX extravaganza.
And no Will Smith…still looking for something legit that points to his supposed frontrunner status.
That will be the SAG win (if it happens), nothing before I don’t think.
He won NBR. Thats not nada.
Is it not, though? Looking at recent winners, none really came close to being Best Actor frontrunners since 2016.
Nothing at this point is much more than “nada”, though. NBR is relatively large at the moment
Fair enough.
Exactly. (Although I’m not sure how much something like the Gothams means since nothing above $35 mil is even eligible).
Except maybe the Globe and BFCA nominations
It’s not the be all end all either. Also, NBR left out TPOTD so I’ll take them with a grain of salt.
Why would he have won LAFCA? And in terms of the “big precursors” Smith has more than for example Gary Oldman had at this point since he at least has NBR.
Why would he not? The story we’re told every year is that the precursors show strength, outside of NBR, I’ve seen no strength for Smith.
The winds of change are blowing, and I’m here for it.
It’s a movie star lead performance in a somewhat traditional biopic. It is not the type of performance LAFCA goes for usually (the same applies to a lesser degree with Stewart) because they prefer smaller movies and weirder performances. Even Ellis getting the runner-up spot makes sense because it’s more of a spotlight on a character actress. It’s like you’d be saying that Rami Malek or Gary Oldman or Leonardo DiCaprio or Eddie Redmayne were weak contenders rather than the steady winners they were because they didn’t win an award that has always been too cool for them. There is nothing to gleam in terms of Will Smith winning or losing from these awards or from pretty much any other critics’ awards, just as there isn’t really for any other frontrunner. There isn’t proof of Smith winning but there isn’t a lack of proof, there’s just little data that is genuinely interesting.
After having seen the performance, I would like him not to win. I am not shy about pushing that narrative.
I am not interested in analyzing why a group I do not personally belong to does/does not award or nominate someone. I am interested in the facts: LAFCA didn’t, NYFCC didn’t, both groups have arguably more sway than some rando group of strangers in NBR—and certainly more than the HFPA (this year).
However, I AM interested in what others in the film watching community, who do not have anything at stake, think about his performance, so what is your take?
Not incredible, not terrible, just ok. The Academy has done much worse in choosing best actor winners in the past but I wouldn’t even consider putting him on my ballot. Within that movie, I thought Saniyya Sidney was the one giving a truly interesting performance in that movie.
How do you parse Smith’s accent in the film?
I didn’t pay notable attention to it but then again, I rarely pay attention to an accent in relation to whether the performance is good at least to the extent that I’d praise a performance just for the accent or dismiss a performance just because it isn’t any good. It’s to me kind of like an actor looking like the person they’re is playing, it’s cool in theory if it’s a really precise imitation but eventually to me the point is that the actor presents a recognizable human being and not that they’ll work as an approximation of the actual person’s look or sound.
That’s interesting. If you rewatch it, listen for an accent on one word: “WOIK” for “work”. It feels peppered into the script intentionally, the result a slap in the face to any actor who puts in time and energy on an actual accent.
I think it’s really great to be able to speak honestly about what you like or don’t like and the way you see things. That’s great! I get into trouble sometimes because I cannot not say what I really think. For example, I don’t mind upsetting someone if I feel I am speaking my mind. To be clear, I am not one of those people who just blurts out words. I am careful and deliberate in what I say. However, I do have a problem conveying my exact thoughts. This leaves plenty of room for people to be confused or not understand where I’m coming from. I’m a contradiction, in that I don’t like confrontation, but I also don’t mind upsetting people if feel strongly about something. To be clear, I don’t mean personally. I don’t like to personal. So a long story short, I much prefer people to speak their truth. I may enquire about people’s opinions, but only to better understand or to provide a counter argument. I think listening to different opinions enriches us because it challenges us to look outside of our own world view and ourselves. I am rambling again and a little things this can set me off. To sum up, again, I feel like it’s exploration of the truth or something. I didn’t meant it to sound grand. Maybe it’s just therapeutic for me. Phew, I’m glad I got that of my chest.
Sorry, I forgot to add the bit about LAFCA and NYFCC. We are not debating the fact that Smith did not win either of those critics groups. The problem is that you went beyond that and interpreted to mean something that some of us don’t agree with. Ferdinand stated fact, too. Similarly biopic films and actors have not done well with these two groups either, but still went on to win the Oscar. You can’t argue that not winning LAFCA and NYFCC matters, but these Oscar winners who won without those two groups don’t. That’s subjective reading of the stats. The only thing we can for sure is that Smith’s spot has not been boosted by the big critics. And to be honest that was predicted.
For some reason when I respond to you it disappears?
I’m not sure why there’s even a lot of goodwill toward the film – it’s truly just a run of the mill biopic. I’m a big tennis fan and go to the Western & Southern Open. I sooo badly would like to see Serena tie or take “most Grand Slam wins” from Court, so I thought I would enjoy the movie. But the film was just so bland. You know exactly what you are getting with it, regardless if you are a tennis fan or not, and I can see why it has underperformed at the boxoffice,
It’s too bad so many of the Best Actress frontrunners are in biopics. Of all of Nicole Kidman’s great performances, she gets the most traction from biopics. She was never recognized for To Die For, Dogville or The Others, which is tragic. She applies putty to her face, becomes a well-known pubic figure, and voila! – Oscar comes calling.
While Stewart is playing a celebrity, at least the film itself doesn’t pretend to be “real” (much like The Favourite). I still think many will wowed by her transformation, similar to what biopics like to bank on, and I wouldn’t be disappointed if she somehow didn’t make the cut. But not at the expense of the dreck from Kidman, Hudson, and Gaga. I’m pretty sure one of those four will take it because non-biopic films are supposedly lacking, but what can you do?
Totally agree with you on Stewart! I haven’t seen Kidman’s performance yet, so I’ll reserve my judgment on that one.
the problem with the movie is that Serena and Venus are supremely uninteresting people. They spent their first ten years on the circuit as automatons. Serena has gained an iconic status, but it took her two decades to get it. No one really knows who Venus is.
So the father gets credit for creating two boring people who can demolish all the more interesting people on a tennis court.
No thank you.
Well i haven’t seen it, but it doesn’t sound like you have either. It’s a bit reductive to dismiss Venus as being someone nobody knows of. She has been among the best players in the world for a couple of decades. Their story is a compelling one.
If it is a boring uninteresting film, that is one thing, but to dismiss its reason for being; due to your opinion that no one really knows who Venus is, is pretty dim.
For people on the “Drive My Car is getting all the Oscar nominations” train, I would urge you to remember Burning: a film similar in style, Cannes FIPRESCI winner, great critical showing earning runner-up mentions in Best Film at LAFCA and NSFC, plus several other awards including for Steven Yeun. In the end, it got 0 Oscar nominations, got snubbed even in International Feature.
Drive My Car is clearly performing better, including a Golden Globe nomination and actual BP wins from NYFCC and LAFCA, but in my mind, this is exactly the kind of film that gets snubbed on Oscar morning.
Runner ups are not the same as outright winning. And Burning is much more specific in topic and smaller in scale. And Burning was pre-Parasite days. Voters are more open to look at Asian films as contenders.
Shoplifters had no trouble getting in FLF that very year, I don’t think it’s about being an Asian film. It’s more about how peculiar (philosophical and talky) these two films are.
International Feature isn’t particularly comparable because of the weird voting structure. I wouldn’t be that shocked if one of these years we get something that sneaks into best picture but misses in International Feature
Aren’t we talking about BP? Of course Shoplifters would get in FLF. Why shouldn’t it.
Because Burning didn’t.
Because Burning is less Academy material than Shoplifters. And maybe back then they thought they could only put in one Asian film?
What I was trying to point out was that I don’t think Burning was struggling with the Academy because it was an Asian film, it was because it was less Academy material than Shoplifters and other films.
I think DMC is a lot less confounding than Burning and more Academy friendly. And with these major wins, it would at least encourage voters to take a look. And that’s what it needs.
Not a shoo-in. But it’s no lonely Burning.
Also, Shoplifters is a crowd-pleaser so I can see why it got in over Burning. I don’t think Drive My Car is despite its funny moments and scenes. I like it very much. It’s just very “talkish” and the beauty of it lies on the conversations.
Academy likes talky movies.
They like “talky” movies of the Aaron Sorkin variety. The kind that tells you everything you need not to think for yourself. That’s not the same as the kind of “talky” movies Drive My Car is.
I was trying to contrast between talky movies versus quiet movies like Burning. DMC belongs to the talky ones.
I wouldn’t consider Burning quiet, iirc there are a dozen stories told by the characters throughout.
Yes, but there are long stretches in the movies where there are no dialogues, most notably the finale. Not Academy friendly in that sense.
The Academy likes movies where along with things happening the characters talk a lot and their dialogue is stylized. I would not describe that the Academy is really into movies that are formed around conversations
DMC is not formed around conversations. FYI.
Is it really not? Not much is actually happening, apart from different characters talking to each other. (Which is not an issue of course, but does not make a film particularly Oscar-friendly.)
Not to me, I think there’s a lot of things happen within the course of the movie. Maybe not a lot in span of 3 hours but I’d say there are twists and turns. More than Amour. (I know I keep bringing this movie up, but…)
Winter Sleep is a talky movie yet it didn’t even get a Foreign Language nod. Before trilogy was a talky movie and it only got screenplay nods.
Burning snubs still hurts. What a movie.
That movie should have won best picture
I love Burning. I’ve seen it (at least) three times. But I would never consider a movie that could never have won Oscar BP as should have won. It’s like the Oscars is the Best Dog show and Burning is a goat.
I used that phrase to the effect “if I got to choose whatever I wanted as the Oscar nominees and winners, this would win best picture” (so basically best film of the year). But your point is a very good one.
It did compete at Cannes tho. And I’m surprised it went empty handed. But that year had a very strong line up too.
To this day I still think Roma and Burning were the best films of the year. And I can’t decide which one I like more.
Burning is one of the best films of the last decade. An absolute travesty that it wasn’t even nominated for International Feature.
if you’ve not read the short story, do so
Of course, the NYFCC+LAFCA win would even imply that the movie would get an acting nomination (probably Nishijima based on how people talk about that performance) which doesn’t seem particularly realistic at this point so it seems clearly like an abnormal winner of that combination. And if you remove NYFCC and LAFCA, you some have critics’ buzz and International Feature nominations. But it’s at least positioning itself notably well for a few nominations when one thinks about Hamaguchi’s style, thematic interests and relatively small recognizability in the US before this movie as well as the movie’s length.
Indeed, I am quite shocked it’s doing this well, considering what a strange film it is. Good for its fans, though.
DRIVE MY CAR will get nothing but a Best International Feature Film nomination. Best Director is the only other possibility but I’m very skeptical about its prospects. Best Picture is extremely unlikely. Not because I think it’s not good enough, but it’s way too inaccessible and arthouse and cerebral for the Oscars. More than anything else, these awards gave it a tremendous boost for the Best International Feature Film Award. I do hope it does make the leap and get a Best Director nomination though.
Burning is quite a depressing, disturbing film. Drive my car is the very opposite. Its main problem are those three hours.
I wouldn’t exactly call Drive My Car uplifting either.
Its symphony goes uphill. In any case, light-years of distance from Burning.
Drive my car has some seriously depressing episodes too. I mean a lot of the film is in fact about grief
Aboutgetting over grief I’d say.
Both can be painful at times. But the endings are opposite. One life-affirming, the other nihilistic.
First Cow is another example, no? Didn’t do quite as well as Drive My Car, but close enough and zero Oscar nominations. And that wasn’t even foreign language…
One thing no one is taking into consideration about Kristen Stewart in her quest for Best Actress is she also had a most excellent sex tape released this year too.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/88a05242f243ef75d3d23ffbdac30dc047dba5a90c8b8d77bfb7af553911e889.gif
what ??????
Well, it was actually more leaked than released.
a leaking sex tape. sounds messy
huh ? this has kristen in it and not a look alike/fake or some video manipulation job ?
It’s her. That’s what’s great about how far we’ve come socially. In the old days, it’d be a scarlet letter, but after Kim K., Pam Anderson, etc. it’s just another leak and old news after a few months.
Hardly anyone knew about it; I know I didn’t.
Is Drive My Car the first film to win BOTH L.A. Film Critics and New York Film Critics’ top prize since ‘The Social Network’? Very rare. After one group announces the other prefers to go in a different direction. ‘Licorice Pizza’ has fared poorly? A lot of people thought it would take the top prize here.
It should have !
You think Licorice Pizza deserved the top prize?
Talking about Power of the Dog ! Best Actor goes to a movie with a title that’s a euphemism for a male dog’s reproductive organ . As Sulu used to say in Star Trek Oh My !
Please indulge this way offtopic post, but as a fan, I am bursting with pride right now. The Hugo Awards, the most prestigious trophies a science fiction genre contributor can get, are underway right now in Washington. About 20 minutes ago, history was made as The Good Place won their fourth consecutive Best Dramatic Presentation: Short Form Hugo for their series finale, Whenever You’re Ready, which aired 689 days ago. No TV show in the history of that award ever copped a grand slam. Doctor Who got 3 straight Hugos here a couple times back in the day. Never four. It was the very last award the show was eligible for. A real Ted Williams-esque way to go out. The Hugos gave TGP the respect and credit the Emmys, Critics Choice and Globes refused to do.
A nice pre-Christmas present for every fan of Team Jeremy Bearimy. 🙂
The Hugo for Best Dramatic Presentation: Long Form (movies) also was handed out. Nominees were Birds of Prey, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, Palm Springs, Soul, Tenet and the eventual winner, Netflix’s The Old Guard.
wow that’s the worst of that list, easily. what’s fire saga doing in a Hugo awards?
woooah
the good place is a drama?
“Dramatic presentation” is just a catch all phrase for movie/tv. My mom was nominated for a writing Hugo three times in the 70’s.
Again KStew shows weakness…she is far from a front runner.
You can’t say that without having an alternative winner. I don’t one. She’s easily the frontrunner.
She was assumed a critics darling and has literally won none of the big ones. Other cities ones don’t mean anything. Losing the majors was a big sign of weakness….she may get nominated but she is most certainly not winning the Oscar. I’d bet money.
I don’t know anyone who thought that. I certainly didn’t. Quite the opposite, actually. I thought it would be more like Renee Zelwegger and other recent winners in biopic films. It’s all a about TV award shows.
Which are now fewer, or have the Globes found a broadcast entity?
Which are now fewer, or have the Globes found a broadcast entity?
How is losing the majors a big sign of weakness when hardly any of the recent winners of the majors went on to win the Oscar ?
NYFCC – 2 of their last 10 Best Actress winners won the Oscar.
LAFCA – 3 of their last 10 Best Actress winners won the Oscar.
This is exactly why critics groups are not predicting Oscar winners, only help contenders get enough buzz to secure nominations.
Side note – When a contender wins 10 of 19 Best Actress awards from critics groups, that contender IS a critics darling. This “other cities don’t mean anything” argument seems tailored for the fact that the contender you despise is doing well with these other groups. For the record on their own they don’t mean a lot, but when someone wins MOST of them, that does add positively to any campaign narrative because then the perception isn’t “oh XY got this one Best Actress award from Poughkeepsie or something, who cares”, it is “wow XY keeps winning almost everywhere (including Washington) and definitely a lot more than any of her competition!”.
She has never been the frontrunner—for the win. She has always been a sure bet for the nomination, but this is not the type of biopic that Oscar voters salivate over, nor is she considered (over)due like some of her competition.
So who is the alternative winner?
Too soon to say—I’ll wait for the nominations—but there are compelling narratives for Chastain, Cruz and Kidman. I can’t say the same at this point for Gaga, Haim and Colman (although Colman has that air of acting god about her that is always its own narrative).
None of those have a compelling case. KS has a more acclaimed film and performance. Kidman and Cruz have won before and Kidman needs a strong performance and film to win a second and she has neither, really. Cruz is not really featuring much except in two big places and that might push her to a nomination but a win seems unlikely. Colman only recently and she isn’t getting in everywhere and a nomination will be a win for her. KS has got a great narrative. A child actor and the lead star of a major franchise, which she was ridiculed for. Then she followed her heart and went to do independent films, and she’s acclaimed films and performances, even if an Oscar nomination has eluded her thus far. And she’s in an Acclaimed film playing one of if the most famous woman in history and one of the most loved and admired. She’s a credible actress and won French film awards for best actress; she’s got acclaimed film and performance; she’s playing one of the biggest icons of all time; and lastly, she has shown a test of character. She’s trying to b the first open LGBT actor to win an Oscar. That’s quite the narrative.
I meant a strength of character.
Not really. Most of the things you mention as KS’ narrative will mean little to the majority of Oscar voters, they will mostly think of her as that sullen brat who was in Twilight. They haven’t been following her indie career. And as I implied above, Spencer will be a hard sell for them.
Kidman hasn’t won in almost 20 years and has received raves for playing an American icon. She’s overdue for a second Oscar given the longevity of her career, who she’s worked with etc. And that’s just part of the narrative.
Cruz has never won Best Actress, and her supporting win was over a decade ago. Some think she was denied for her outstanding work in Volver.
And as for Colman’s recent win, I have two words for you: Frances McDormand.
Edited to add: Stewart is the one *I’d* vote for at this point, if I were a member of the Academy. Just FYI.
Those aren’t compelling reasons for KS isn’t the frontrunner. I’ll give you that they might have followed her indie career. However, you do know that they don’t think her twilight past is as bad as the internet nasty boys think it is? She was the lead in a major franchise that was adapted from a book and it made ston of money. Hollywood doesn’t look bad at that. Not at all. And Diane beats al the other famous characters. And she’s trying to make history. That’s a much better narrative than trying to win a second lrad Oscar in dreary fil and unconvincing performance.
1.Who are you to say Diana beats all the others? We aren’t judging who is playing the better icon. I know lots of people who adore Lucille Ball and give zero cares about Diana—and I bet you could say the reverse. No one cares about that.
2. Her LGBT narrative is hardly a narrative. I don’t think people are making their Oscar choices based on someone’s sexual orientation. I can’t imagine saying “hhhmmm I’m gonna vote for so and so because they are an open LGBTQ+ person”….doesn’t that sound like a ridiculous narrative? Vote for me because I’m queer? I mean come on! I truly hope no one votes like that. Same goes for POC. It should always be about the performance. Always. Not even a question. I also don’t believe her campaign team would be doing that, and if they are, big YIKES.
3. Also, I could be wrong but wasn’t Twilight not that loved by critics? I mean just because you made some money doesn’t equal love for someone.
4. You are more than welcome to be of the opinion that Stewart is a front runner for the win—but maybe be open minded that she isn’t. LOTS of people have talked about her being a critics darling for Spencer, which has not mounted to much. She is far weaker than you believe. I believe she stands a good shot at a nomination, I personally wont predict her unless she gets in at SAG/BAFTA, but I would be shocked if she won.
See reputation as “sullen brat” above. Also the LGBT angle works as much against her as for her, unfortunately.
That’s your compelling reasons? I am trying to have a serious conversation why an actress with an Acclaimed film and performance in a biopic playing one of, if not the mos icon person in 20th century might win the Oscar and that’s your reply. Are you one of those internet nasty boys?
Okay, I’m done here.
I have to apologise for previous comment. It’s been bugging me since yesterday. I didn’t mean to get personal. I don’t know you, so I had no right to say that to you. What elicited that comment was because your “sullen brat” comment. I feel that was a personal attack on KS. I don’t particularly like her or anything, but I don’t like people who use personal insults to make a point. I hate that even more when the person isn’t there to defend themselves. It felt like you agreed with those idiots who have been insulting her ever since Twilight. Even if those things were true, can’t a person change and grow?
Of course she can change and grow, but I was talking about people’s perception (not my opinion) of her public persona in the context of the Best Actress race. I’m also aware that she has been working very hard this awards season to change that perception. But that’s not the easiest thing to do, once you have a particular image. Anyway, apology accepted.
You say people’s perception, but which people? We don’t really know what they think about her or other contenders who haven’t yet won an Oscar. If we had a clue, then it would be different. Academy members are not people on the internet who follow these things. I am on the internet a lot more, and I think it’s all overblown. Whatever problem she had, I think she has recovered well from it. I believe her image has changed in recent years, it’s a lot more positive now. And her frontrunner status in the early part of the award season is a sign of that. She has clearly grown and has shown a strength of character. There’s authenticity about her, and I admire that.
I work in the industry and live in Los Angeles, to answer your question. I have some idea of what I’m talking about, otherwise I wouldn’t be saying it.
You said above she ticks the same box as Zellweger and that’s absolutely not true. Zellweger had a comeback narrative from taking a break for so many years and playing a part that has a history with Oscars. Stewart has no such thing. I do not believe she has the love, adoration, and respect from the American film industry—I don’t care who she has acted with or worked with in her past, that means nothing. Just because you work with people, doesn’t mean you are respected or liked. She may be playing an iconic, but to me, her performance was cold to me and Emma Corrin did it better. I also think we may have some Diana fatigue. If she fails to get nominated at BAFTA or SAG she is toast.
I would address the other contenders you’ve mentioned but No Thanks said it best. 100%.
I think the Oscar is gonna come down between Chastain and Kidman.
I didn’t even get into Chastain’s highly compelling narrative.
Is that why KS has been ahead among Oscar prognostics from the very beginning? There’s a reason why they think that. Look, I may be wrong here, but am trying to be as objective as I can, and honestly I can only see one outcome.
Oscar prognosticators predict a lot of things and get it wrong. Just because they are predicting Stewart, doesn’t make them right! Everyone pushes who they feel; and frankly there’s a lot of heard mentality—no one wants to be wrong so they predict what everyone else does. Happens every year.
That sentence pretty much cost you your entire argument. Most of the awards season comes down to who worked with whom in the past. I have no idea why you have this very VERY obvious prejudice against Stewart but let’s not pretend it wasn’t already there before this season nor that it isn’t getting in the way of you viewing her chances (or her performance) objectively.
1. I genuinely think her best acting has been mediocre. She has never done anything to me that has been good. Ever. I will say Spencer is her best performance—but I still thought it was meh. I’ve watch lots of her movies, some I really enjoy and watch over and over, I don’t mind HER at all…I just know what I’m gonna get and I accept it. With Spencer I was expecting something more, and what I got felt off and cold—in my opinion. I can’t really explain it. I think it mainly comes down to everyone hyping it and then feeling shocked it was not what I was thinking I was gonna get.
2.Just because she has worked with big people in her past, doesn’t make her loved or respected—which is why I say that it doesn’t matter. Her working with Indy and Non American film makers also doesn’t matter—especially to Academy voters. You bring that up, but it doesn’t equal admiration or love that would make people vote for her. I would think voters don’t sit there and think “ah well she worked with Fincher, so she is worthy of my vote”. I would probably think most people don’t remember or care about that. Maybe people do? I don’t know, just sharing my thoughts.
3. In saying all that—I’ve already said this before and is just something I just have to live with—The idea of her winning and even being nominated, while there are so many better actresses still Oscar-less, and some even this year that are better is just sad to me. I recognize my own biases, and I’m trying to accept that things may not go the way I think they should.
4. I’m not sure if there is a front runner—I think it’s anyones game.
In all fairness to Kidman, not only she had the Twitter shitstorm for playing Lucille Ball, she does have THE STRONG PERFORMANCE to win.
I don’t care for the twitter storm. I am sorry she had to face. But it really has to be about her performance, and I feel that is the case. I mean, i read the reviews and it was pretty bad. I don’t usually read the reviews as much as I did for this, so I am not why this film. I think it might because I didn’t expect such criticism of talented filmmaker. It was particularly brutal for Sorkin.
I’m sorry but what reviews did you read exactly? Being the Ricardo’s has a solid rating on RT and with less than 200 reviews. Reviews from top critics for the most part have praised the film and those who haven’t have praises Kidman as the best part of it, with the exception of one or two critics who were overly fixated on Kidman not doing an impression, which was never the filmmaker’s intention. So I really don’t get where you and some others on this site have claimed the reviews are scathing? I have also paid very careful attention to the reviews coming in and frankly your comments are inaccurate and it is obvious that you are just going by what others have claimed on this site.
What exactly is Kidman’s compelling narrative? Her Andy Serkis inspired CGI performance? Because of ONE early tastemaker screening full of older white folks who cherish I Love Lucy so she’s “owed” for simply trying? That will eke her to a nom but I can”t see her winning for this. I’m sorry but she’s not good in a bad movie. Said it before, she isn’t playing Lucille Ball or Lucy Ricardo, she’s playing Nicole Kidman. Gaga’s narrative is she’s amazing in a dodgy movie. Despite the rest of it, she soars and carried it to to $50 mil domestic alone. Gaga is a movie star. This performance cements that. Haim is a fantastic breath of fresh air in a fantastic movie. Embrace the new blood, people.
“She’s easily the frontrunner.”
has any one “officially” been the front runner this season ????
not a personal fave by whomever but “official” front runner status ???
it’s been more “front runner” by committee this year or maybe i just missed those posts. 😉
I think she’s a frontrunner in the same way that Zelwegger was. She just ticks all the boxes, even if it isn’t a critics thing.
maybe we should book mark your posts just in case this happens.
Yeah, I don’t mind.
I am a member if of the 5 member group that establishes frontrunner status in every Oscar category. This was done in late November. I noticed Sasha Stone was among reporters that were present. I am surprised that she didn’t post a story on it. Goldderby.com was all over it. I will post a link shortly.
I am one of a 5 member group that establishes frontrunner status in every Oscar category. This occurred in late November. Kristen Stewart was so named in the best actress category. The group stands by this selection.
so the group is *now* up to five members. diversity and inclusion has effected everything… 😉
That nickname certainly isn’t helping her cause.
you might get cancelled for saying that. 😉
I can only hope. Feel free to reccomend it.
Lady gaga and źegler win the globe, Chastain wins SAG and Kristen Stewart wins the Bafta. Could very well happen.
Who wins the Oscar in that ceremony?
Chastain in that scenario.
I can see it. There is a case you could make for anyone to win at this point. It’s just a matter of who will be the five and then what happens at the shows. The Oscar is up for grabs!
Kristen Stewart. I don’t think that the Independent Spirit Awards will matter much this year.
She won 10 out of 19 so far.
Next one is Haim.
With 3.
Phantom—I am admitting that she will likely be nominated. This is looking more likely than her winning—which I’d be shocked. HOWEVER a couple things:
1. I still won’t predict her until after SAG/BAFTA chime in.
2. I wont be surprised if she still misses—no matter how much I’m conceeding she may be.
3. I just hate the idea of living in a world where Kirsten Stewart has an Oscar—and so many FAR SUPERIOR actresses have zero or had to work consistently in Oscar caliber films over years or decades with a couple nominations to finally win. Just doesn’t feel right. But that’s my own bias towards her.
1. “Winning” is not on the table yet. We are in the critics group stage of the season when contenders are trying to get enough hype to secure nominations, the winner will be determined at the Guild/Bafta stage a.k.a. when the precursors with actual Academy overlap chime in. At least I am only predicting nominations at this stage. At the moment Stewart still seems the most likely to get the nomination in Lead Actress. Doesn’t mean she will win, too.
2. If she misses, she misses. It doesn’t determine whether her work was good or not. Not like anyone said after Tilda Swinton was snubbed by the Academy in spite of SAG, Bafta, Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations that “oh on second thought, yeah she was shit in We Need To Talk About Kevin”.
3. Yes, I know. You hate her work, you only acknowledge her career lows and completely ignore her accomplishments. That she worked with Fincher at 12 (Panic Room); received rave reviews for an indie lead at 14 (Speak); was part of a SAG nominated ensemble at 17 (Into the Wild); made Cesar history at 24 and also won NYFCC, NSFC, BSFC for the same performance (Clouds of Sils Maria), received raves at Cannes for a lead role (Personal Shopper), headlined the first studio romcom about a lesbian couple (Happiest Season) and over the years worked with the likes of Ang Lee, Kelly Reichardt and David Cronenberg. You think none of that means a thing. That’s on you. And as you said : yes, that is entirely down to your well-established bias here.
That’s just how it is at the Oscars. It’s a world where a mediocre performance of Redmayne beat out Keaton’s one of the best of the past decade and Rami Malek has one Oscar on his first undeserved nominatio and Willem Dafoe has none.
For me Stewart winning is not settling as I think it’s going to be well deserved. Not even a makeup one for having proved herself on films such as Clouds of Sils Maria, Personal Shopper, Certain Women which she should have at least been nominated.
Just out of curiosity, if you consider Stewart weak enough to lose with 10 out of 19 wins then who do you consider strong enough to win ? I am only asking because the distant second is Haim with 3 wins then Chastain with 2 so I am not sure how logically it could be argued that at the moment anyone is stronger than Stewart.
P.S. She has a name.
But probably it´s not that bad for her that she is not really sweeping the season since she ist not in danger of “overperforming” – sometimes the Academy voters are kind of resistant against candidates that seem to be pushed too hard by the critics.
That said, I feel that the Actress category is still wide open. I truly think that Stewart was fabulous in “Spencer” but I can also see Cruz becoming a bigger factor for a potential win (haven´t seen her film so far).
It’s sooooooooo over! Drive My Car will run over all the competition on its way to Best Picture, making it the second Asian film in two years to win the Big One. LA and New York agreed, so who are the Oscar voters to doubt their tastes??? Even Oscar winner Brie Larson knows the rout is on!
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I don’t think so. It will take some serious guild love to change my mind
He’s being sarcastic
Sarcasm is lost on certain parties. I speak from experience.
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Kristen for the Oscar, Yay! 🙂 The bell tolls, Kristen and it tolls for you! Way overdue.
I must be
Do you think that its running time of three hours will prove a hurdle for the academy? Many members don’t watch it all the way through from what I understand. The same thing happened with ‘The Irishman’. Also ‘Roma’ but that was because people started to lose their attention. Nothing is happening after 30 minutes was their complaint apparently.
Call me Old School if you want to but Foreign Language , Animated Feature or Feature length Documentaries should never win Best Picture ! They have their own categories ! !
actually it’s easy to call you old school when your user name is not only an email address. but an email address with numbers too !!!!! 😉
but you can call this an old school reply from me. the sort of reply where i disagree with whatever whomever has said. ; )
whether those categories exist or not,if the quality is there/ you’re reasoning for those films not getting a best pic win isn’t strong to me.
those categories exist and they’re considered “ghettos”. 😉
The three hour runtime is a big hurdle. Apparently a lot of academy members stop viewing it after some time. The same people who stopped The Irishman saying that they would revisit it later but didn’t. ‘Parasite’ was mainstream’. You just cannot switch it off. Brilliant film.
If something other than Drive My Car win FL, then it’s reasonable to think that it will win BP, right?
If they decided to go with foreign first, maybe an English-language is more likely to take picture. Otherwise, they always vote picture first.
No film seems to be dominating so far, so this might not be likely likely…But it’s also possible that they could choose a foreign language film winner because they think they know that Best Picture will be a different film that’s not in English. Some critics associations seem to go that way, I don’t know about L.A.
“Titane” and “The Worst Person in the World” are already represented, along with “Drive My Car.” So, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that one of the first two movies wins FL, while Drive My Car wins BP.
Dog has won 3 so far, mentioned 2 other times. For a critics awards, that’s kinda dominating.
Sorry I misread your first statement. I repeated exactly what you said. Sorry about that.
Foreign film, then best picture.
Did they tweet that or something? I don’t see anything
I’m pretty sure after the tough New Generation tie they somehow forgot that there are two categories left and already said goodbye to each other…
In the time that it’s taken them to deliberate their Next Generation award, all the contenders became THE PREVIOUS generation!!! Ahhh… jokes.
cute 🙂
Campion !!!
JANEEEEEEE!
Damn, they can’t decide between Campion, Hamaguchi and Anderson, I think…
Directing is taking a long time. Are they negotiating picture?
Traditionally they negotiate International when they negotiate picture
But directing is taking 23 minutes, the longest so far by 4 minutes.
I’d imagine picture will take longer
26 minutes. Wow.
I think Will Smith might lose this. Remember when Oldman Dark Victory started streaking, the main comp was young lesser knowns in lgbt/bipoc/horror roles like Chalamet and Kaluuya, and there was the late-breaker 3time winner DDL. Only the critical darling Chalamet looked a chance but overdue Oldman looked to have the field’s measure.
This year the main threats are well-timed in terms of career (Cumberbatch, Garfield, Dinklage, etc.). I think POTD is gonna do a male Piano. King Richard looks set for two acting noms, but think Cumberbatch & DeBose will steam away. Cumberbatch like Garfield is in a lot of things at the moment and will have that cross-property affection.
—-
I don’t speak French, what does that mean?
Lol
Next is Campion’s victory lap for director….
Hopefully! If she wins, she’ll join PTA, Lumet, Spielberg, and Lynch as a two-time winner.
I’d say Directing will be:
(TIE!)
Jane Campion & Joachim Trier
But my heart wants:
(TIE!) Jane Campion & Julia Doucernau
Simon Rex can enter the predictions? or is it too soon? , same for Cruz
He probably won’t be a factor. Just like Adam Driver for Paterson and Tom Hardy for Locke were not. Just critics’ faves.
No. He’s missed everything else. This is a LA one-off special.
Round one to the arthouse circuit…
Definite international feel. I think Drive My Car takes one of the top 2 prizes.
Or Actor.
It would be deserving.
I totally agree, being this way I feel that the Drive my car actor will win
My Best Actor prediction from yesterday–
Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog and The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
Runner-up: Adam Driver for Annette, The Last Duel and House of Gucci
or Andrew Garfield for tick, tick…BOOM! and The Eyes of Tammy Faye
…but no cigar.
No worries, no shame in no cigar, No thanks.
A touch of the poet…
Documentary/Non-Fiction: Runner-up: Procession
Winner: Summer of Soul (…or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
I feel like ther’s always one documentary that sweeps the critics and even gets editing prizes but then isn’t even nominated for the Oscar. Is this it this year?
Shades of Hoop Dreams. OJ: Made in America was my personal pick for editing in 2016
It has been the big documentary of the year ever since Sundance and those types of movies are usually exactly the ones that the Academy snubs.
Wells is already calling the prizes “woke” because no black anything can win a prize honestly in his eyes.
Wow, editing and best doc. Unusual!
It’s kind of weird that Documentary and Editing don’t go more hand in hand in general.
I think when they award best documentary, they should give one of the trophies to the editor. They are that crucial to the film’s success.
At LAFCA or the Oscars? At the Oscars it’s because I’d imagine editing branch members, like most voters, watch very few if any documentaries before they vote
Mainly with the Oscars. And yeah, you’re probably right.
Barb and Star…over Dune? What the fork are they thinking? This one stands out in the things I can’t un-see delirious picks by LAFCA.
No one owes it to you to reward Dune lol
Have you seen the sets in Dune? I agree with the OP. Production design should be a shoo-in.
I guess the point of critics’ groups is to not just shoo in things, but rather make well considered choices that sometimes go against the consensus. I think Dune would be a very worthy winner but nevertheless I appreciate LAFCA for highlighting something else instead.
I would agree in categories like editing, cinematography, score, or sound, where other movies can match Dune, but in art direction or production design, we are talking about a difference measured in orders of magnitude . Anyway, I leave that decision to be made by the technical guilds. Critics are generally ill-equipped to judge those categories.
I have seen Dune, and I thought it was pretty great if not excellent. I’m also of the kind that it’s always nice to see films that have no chance at the Oscars get a chance to shine elsewhere. Don’t we always complain about the seasons where 1 or 2 films dominate everything? Variety, to make a pun, is the Spice of life
Flee is really turning into a thing in Animation. After that Globe nod, I won’t doubt it.
Flee vs. The Mitchells? Ouch.
And to think if Alec Baldwin hadn’t pulled that trigger, Boss Baby 2 would render the animation category also rans.
I love The Mitchells vs. the Machines, but honestly, Flee would be a much better winner, if only to legitimize animation stateside as something that isn’t just for kids. There’s nothing wrong with cartoons being geared towards children, but the medium can do so much, and deserves to be recognized for its breadth. Plus, Flee is a knockout picture.
Weird to see a documentary about a gay Middle East refugee nominated in the same category as CGI kids movies from Disney.
Dog is the only 2 time winner so far. Might or might not bode well for it winning BP here. If the “spread the wealth” is a thing at LAFCA.
This is not a problem for LAFCA. Three+ prize winners in the last decade alone:
2019 Parasite – picture, directing, supporting actor (3)
2017 Call Me By Your Name – picture, directing, actor (3)
2016 Moonlight – picture, directing, supporting actor, cinematography (4)
2014 Boyhood – picture, directing, actress, film editing (4)
2013 Gravity – picture, directing, cinematography, film editing (4)
So “spread the wealth” is not really a thing here then. 🙂
It is when it is but when it isn’t it isn’t
Exactly.
It’s interesting in this list that all the BP’s won without screenplay.
Since 2004, only three Best Picture winners here have won screenplay: Sideways, The Social Network, and Spotlight.
And none without directing.
Except the three won with screenplay Sontag listed below won w/o directing.
The Social Network had directing in a tie.
I expect three multiple winners.
Yup: Summer of Soul, The Power of the Dog and Drive My Car.
With plenty to come. They might sneak another in
Yeah, but would it be BP?
Seems likely maybe a runner up if not winner
I’m thinking picture, directing, supporting actor, cinematography. I hope Cumberbatch takes actor as well.
Their choices are pretty wild and tough to predict, but let´s give it another try. Next up is supporting actor, I say Jeffrey Wright, French Dispatch!
Good Lord, he was good.
Dune getting clobbered.
Did you really think Dune was going to win best picture at LAFCA? I understand thinking that tech categories would be possible (cinematography, score, production design, editing) but as with anything at these awards, there are no certainties in who will pop up
Heck, no. It seems the narrative this season is to give Jane Campion the store much like they did with Bigelow in the 2009-10 home stretch.
But I was expecting better in the techs. To not even be in the top 2 in original score, production design or editing?
There is always another critics group out there that will see things differently. Patience, young grasshopper
I want :
Haim or Reinsve_winner
Stewart_runner up
I could see Haim getting BA
Please make it happen.
This could be a really great LGBT year!
Imagine the two winning actresses both being LGBT – Stewart and DeBose, plus The Power of the Dog winning.
Will Smith will feel uncomfortable…
Very fine by me.
Aunjanue Ellis was superb, haven’t seen Westside Story. Not feeling it at the moment but from what I’ve seen Ellis was the best in the category. Believe the Oscar is gonna go either Ellis or Debose.
I ain’t madatcha, Ariana. #mambo
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK!
Supporting Actress: Runner-up: Aunjanue Ellis
Dog will run the table
Runners-up:
Cinematography – Fraser, Dune
Score – Greenwood, The Power of the Dog/Spencer
Supporting Actress – Ellis, King Richard
Production Design – Deverell, Nightmare Alley
Editing – Jurgensen, Licorice Pizza
Supporting Actor – n/a (tie)
Animation – Belle
Screenplay – P.T.A., Licorice Pizza
Documentary/Nonfiction – Procession
Actress – Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Actor – Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Director – Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Foreign-language – Quo Vadis, Aida?
Picture – The Power of the Dog
It’s one thing to ignore a film, but it’s another to not give it your best award. That’s happened to The power of the dog at NYFCC and LAFCA despite the that love it. Similar thing happened at Venice and Toronto. The key thing here is that it lost to a foreign film that has no chance of winning, even though it might now get a BP nomination. And even more importantly it’s biggest challengers have done even worse. Belfast was not expected to do well with the major critics, but it’s done so badly that it will be looking at doing a Green Book. The NBR,NYFCC and LAFCA Film, Director and Screenplay is very strong and Belfast is struggling. But on the other hand it’s in good position to Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor. That’s been the best combination for Best Picture in recent years. There’s no clear frontrunner and both films have big weaknesses. I give a slight edge to Belfast because The Dog’s weaknesses are more unexpected. (Plus, my gut says Belfast)
If Green Book and Shape of Water can win, then any goddamn movie has a shot.
No, anything can still happen. I’m just pointing out that the two supposed frontrunners are showing weakness and it will require the tv award shows to separate them. Only Campion for BD looks obvious at this time. And KS in lead actress.
Or as she’s known in some circles…JCamp.
My Predictions:
Licorice Pizza
PTA
NGNG-Cruz
NGNG- Hoffman
Dunst
NGNG-Cooper
Love that Penelope won, but isn’t it a little premature for some to predict doom and gloom for Alana just because she didn’t win? I want Gaga to miss out on an Oscar nomination (don’t think she’s getting in Bafta) but it looks like she’ll likely get the nom unless AMPAS members have common sense and shut her out. Seriously, there is nothing awards-worthy about her work in HoG. It’s infuriating to see her get nominations when other actors gave better performances than her. She’s getting nominated for who she is, not for her performance.
I think Alana could slip in there, and I don’t think Gaga is any shoo-in. Alana is a delightful promoter of the movie and will benefit from it herself, I believe.
With Alana Haim, it will come down to industry support. Can she muster up, as a relative unknown in film circles, enough for an Oscar nomination ? IF Licorice Pizza does turn out to be a top5 contender (BP+BD) then Haim could happen. But if the film will get a filler BP nod and a win in original screenplay, I don’t think there will be enough industry support for Haim. I mean could we see SAG voters embrace her ? Bafta ? Those are the crucial ones here.
Totally Agree with you Gaga is a loathsome shameless soulless self promoter.
Only twice in 13 years has the eventual BP winner not won at least one LAFCA award:
The Artist
Green Book
So ‘Belfast’ has to overcome that stat?
WWS at least got supporting actress.
I saw that. Made a mistake. Are you surprised about the poor performance of Licorice Pizza?
I felt for sure Licorice Pizza would win here, it felt like the most obvious pick for them. Maybe that is why they went against it, I don’t know? I don’t think it necessarily ruins its chances with Oscar—I don’t put much trust in the critics part of the race—more often then not they get it wrong, in terms of Oscar winners.
I’m not sure LP will be a big contender at the Oscars or not—I’m kind of waiting to see what SAG/DGA/WGA/PGA/BAFTA do with it. I think it is still a strong contender for many categories, but I think it’s biggest shot for a win is PTA in screenplay.
I hope it is ! My favorite m of the year!
This is a feature-length digital video to be reckoned with. Underestimate it at your own peril.
Does PETITE MAMAN even have a release date?
And, BARB AND STAR GO TO MAR VISTA was Awards eligible for 2020.
Out of the box choices, I guess
So, counting Drive My car, in their history, NY and LA critics agreed 15 times on Best Picture.
Of those, 4 went on to be Oscar winners for Best picture: Kramer vs. Kramer, Terms of Endearment, Schindler’s List, The Hurt Locker.
9 got a Best Picture nomination but no win: Hannah and Her Sisters, Goodfellas, L.A. Confidential, Saving Private Ryan, Sideways, Brokeback Mountain, The Social Network, Boyhood, Roma.
One was not nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars: Leaving Las Vegas.
I have a feeling Drive My car will join the Las Vegas group.
If there were 10 nominees for BP during Leaving Vegas year, it would have made the cut in BP lineup.
My favorite film of 1995 by a mile.
Very likely, indeed. Still, I do not see Drive My Car managing to be a BP nominee, come Oscar time; easier for the Directors’ branch to pick Hamaguchi as a nominee. That said, I may be, of course, wrong.
Before today I would agree with you. But stats are working in its favor right now to make it.
Let’s not forget that Academy members, with all due respect, are not film critics, and Drive My Car is very much “arthouse”. And they will start voting for the nominees on January 27th. That’s more than a month from now; a lot can happen when it comes to movies gaining (or losing) momentum.
Of course, they’re not. But two wins in two major critics like NY and LA are what a small art film need to get attention. And if this is a director film and they’re passionate about it, they can put it on top of their BP list and the film will get nominated. Not to mention the writers. Amour was more alienating and it got in, surely by the director branch.
Again, you’re right, and as you stated in another comment, if Amour did get in, Drive My Car can. And, don’t get me wrong: saw DMC in Cannes, and it was hands down my pick for the Palme d’Or, in spite of some really strong contenders (and I did not, nor do now, consider Titane being one of them), so I would be just delighted to see it getting a BP Oscar nomination.
Seven of those 15 won Best Director. Six of the 15 won an acting Oscar.
I don’t see why Drive My Car shouldn’t be a BP nominee with ten slots available. It is certainly more deserving of a nomination than other alternate nominees that have been mentioned here. And it should get nominations also at least for Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Foreign Language Film.
Maybe it’s becoming obligatory to have a foreign language film in BP now? I really hope that becomes true. They have ten spots now so they should be able to find a spot for one of the best foreign language films.
Got a huge boost today: Drive My Car, Parallel Mothers
Pretty much the same: The Power of the Dog
Underperformed immensely: Licorice Pizza
Drive My Car has now actually swept most of the critics BP awards.
Not true. The Power of the Dog has more.
Drive My Car has those that matter the most (New York, Boston, LA).And it won Best Foreign Language Film in Washington and Chicago.
The three big/prestigious ones are NY, LA and National Society of Film Critics which announce their winners in January. Two out of three is definitely impressive, especially for a FL film.
Apart from that, about time the Japanese film industry got back on its feet like this
Not this again. It hasn’t.
BEST PICTURE WINS
The Power Of The Dog (7)- BOFCA, CFCA, NYFCO, PCC, PFCC, SEFCA, UFCA
Belfast (3)- LVFCS, PFCS, WAFCA
Drive My Car (3)- BSFC, NYFCC, LAFCA
Licorice Pizza (2) – AFCC, NBR
After Love – BIFA
Cyrano – DFCS
The Green Knight – PCA
Happening – VENICE
The Lost Daughter – GOTHAM
Quo Vadis, Aida? – EFA
Titane – CANNES
Coming in clutch with them stats
Not a great day for Spencer, Nightmare Alley.
West Side Story needed that.
Fabulous haul for Summer of Soul.
Stewart is losing steam, I don’t see her winning at this point.
I’ve always been in the camp of those convinced she’ll be nominated, but sure she won’t win.
Not a good day for Belfast either. Completely shutout with no mention. Though that didn’t derail Green Book.
Hamaguchi is definitely in the director mix now
And his film BP nod.
For foreign film, yes. Too many ahead of it to include in BP.
Like what? King Richard? I don’t think so. If an Amour can get in, then DMC can definitely get in.
If the vote totals were released, I bet Amour came close in actress and director
But which director do you remove unnecessarily to add him?
A very good day for the arthouse circuit, as usual with L.A. I’m as much a homer as it gets for Dune, and they did beyond poorly in the techs. The two jawbreakers that stand out were Original Score, and the LMMFAO at the delirious selection of Barb and Star…in *production design*?
1. Campion is winning.
2. PTA, Villeneuve, Spielberg, Branagh are the other four.
I think Branagh will miss. There might be a second one who misses.
PTA is vulnerable.
We get it: you want Dune to win everything because it’s the only film with a big budget you saw this year. Dont denigrate small films because they don’t make Marvel money
A movie showing in theaters vs a streamer. Going to be a hell of a battle.
And the most ironic part is that those who claim to worry about the “death of cinema” are the ones who are rooting the most for a streamer. I respect the circumstances of the pandemic and the need for people to feel safe, but I wonder how many of the voting critics actually saw Dune on IMAX as it was meant to be seen.
I respect that you’re not on board with Car, but Dog’s competition is making an error not going hard against streaming
You see, that is what most people in this forum don’t get. Dune is not Marvel or Star Wars (and clearly doesn’t make “Marvel money”). Dune is an art film which is also an incredible technical achievement. That is why Villeneuve should be recognized for it, but almost surely won’t be.
haven’t seen ‘dune’ and not interested in seeing it. 😉
but villeneuve, has gotton plenty of recognition. enough that if he doesn’t win best director he still has plenty of recognition. 😉
Hell get it next time for part 2 and I will be his biggest advocate. But comparing because your favorite film isn’t winning is the lowest form of conversation
Thorough agreement over here…
Critics are mostly writers who are naturally focused on screenplay and acting. That is why movies like Dune do not stand out to them although writing an adapted screenplay for a book as complex as Frank Herbert’s Dune is quite an achievement in itself. In any case, I agree that Dame Jane Campion most likely will win Best Director at the Oscars and, if she doesn’t, the alternatives are Branagh, Hamaguchi, or even Spielberg. Based on technical achievement alone, Villeneuve should get Best Director, but he won’t.
For those that have actually seen it: Did you like Drive My Car?
It’s above average definitely, but I might be in the minority thinking that it’s also somewhat overrated.
I saw it in the theater the day before it won NY. I loved it. Thought it was special, one of a kind movie.
I think the screenplay is great , but I wouldn’t consider it BP material.
Agreed 100%
By BP, do you mean Oscar BP? If so, it’s better than that. I can understand it’s not everybody’s cup of tea though. But when you love a movie that not everyone gets, it’s even more special.
I don’t think we are in Parasite territory yet, but it’s rapidly moving up the depth chart.
What do you mean by Parasite territory? Chances of winning BP at the Oscars? No, I don’t think it can ever win there. Great chance of making the cut. But for me it’s a better movie.
Stranger things have happened. Recency bias goes a long way in campaigning
Almost everything this year is overrated !
Ok, let’s hear some positivity. What movies did you actually like?
I saw it at the Philadelphia film festival. It got some applause at the end of the screening but not the enthusiastic response that other movies like C’mon C’mon, A Hero, and Worst Person in the World received.
I love everything Hamaguchi has made. Specially Happy Hour (5 hours and a half movie)
I loved it (but would have never thought it could be something the Academy would go for – and am still sceptical about that).
Best Film: Runner-up: The Power of the Dog
Winner: Drive My Car
The only film to win both NYFCC and LAFCA for best picture and not get an Oscar nomination for best picture is Leaving Las Vegas, and even that got a directing nomination, two acting nominations and an adapted screenplay nomination and thus there is little reason to assume it wouldn’t have made a top 10 for best picture
And there were only 5 nominees during LLV year.
It’s happening in a field of ten, I think. But until last year, no NYFCC best picture winner has been shut out by the Academy. And it happened. Anyway, The Power of the Dog is doing very similarly to Nomadland.
“The Power of the Dog is doing very similarly to Nomadland.”
As well as The Piano. (The only other BD winner at both NYFCC & LAFCA that won neither of their BP prizes.)
What is the track record for winning BP or BD for films that win NY/LA?
4/14. The Hurt Locker, Schindler’s List, Terms of Endarment and Kramer Vs. Kramer won, Roma, Boyhood, The Social Network, Brokeback Mountain, Sideways, Saving Private Ryan, L.A. Confidential, Goodfellas, Hannah and Her Sisters were nominated (and each won at least one above the line Oscar) and Leaving Las Vegas, as mentioned before, was not nominated. All of them also got director, screenplay and acting nominations at the Oscars.
Now the question is: how many of them didn’t get nominated in picture by either the BFCA or HFPA? 🙂
All of them (including Leaving Las Vegas) got Golden Globe nominations for director and all except Leaving Las Vegas got Golden Globe nominations for screenplay. When the Critics’ Choice Awards were given, in all cases except Leaving Las Vegas (the first year of the Critics’ Choice) the movie won best picture at Critics’ Choice
Wow, I knew this had to speak heavily against DMC‘s chances, but didn’t think it would be this bad… 🙂
I’d make the distinction with HFPA that Drive My Car is a best picture nominee in the category it can get a nomination in. Thus I’d perhaps compare director/screenplay nominations at HFPA and picture nominations at BFCA from when they have been around
Yes, I was thinking of asking about those next. 🙂
I don’t really think it’s getting in, so I’m not super-motivated to do the research myself right now. 🙂 That’s why I was just asking. I’ll probably do it before giving my final BP nomination predictions.
Best Film Not in the English Language: Runner-up: Quo Vadis, Aida?
Winner: Petite Maman
Wow. Get ready for Drive My Car for BP?
Oui Oui 🙂 🙂
That originally was confusing, as Quo Vadis Aida was a 2020 film, but was released in Europe this past March (Portugal got first dibs, IMS). Did it ever get a domestic release?
There apparently was a 2021 US release that made it eligible (I think it was during this Oscar year’s eligibility but that wouldn’t be necessary here, just that it was released within the year)
For the L.A. Rebellion filmmakers, a Special Citation for their contributions to cinema. Major figures include: Charles Burnett, Larry Clark, Julie Dash, Zeinabu Irene Davis, Jamaa Fanaka, Haile Gerima, Alile Sharon Larkin and Billy Woodberry.
Have they forgotten Best Picture? It’s been over an hour…
Yes they forgot the top award. Oops
🙂
Why isn’t Jane Campion referred to in the US as Dame Jane Campion?
Probably because it’s a relatively recent thing, and because titles like that aren’t really a thing here.
Nonetheless, British actors and musicians who hold British knighthoods / damehoods are normally cited in the US as Sir/ Dame. Does it make a difference that Dame Jane holds a NZ damehood rather than a British one?
EDIT: I understand that titles granted by a foreign monarch (in this case, the Queen of New Zealand) are not legally recognized in the US, but it’s just a matter of being respectful and polite.
Yes.
It shouldn’t.
36 minutes & counting.
And it’s not even particularly clear that they’ve been voting on something during that time
I would not be surprised if they instead study this very comment sector in order to see how their choices are perceived!
The voting process for these critics groups is so strange, and LAFCA feels like the loosest of the major ones.
Are they meditating on every category?
Yeah. Because they’ll do one round of ranked balloting, which gives you a read on where the consensus is. And then they’ll do a second round where you might change your picks, but you also get to argue for contenders before voting again. I believe that’s how it goes. Anyway, as far as I know, there isn’t a time limit. And even if there is, there are a lot of critics to get through.
So you have 66 people ranting in a row about The Power of the Dog vs. Drive My Car, followed probably by similar rants about Drive My Car vs. Parallel Mothers?
Pretty much!
We have now officially hit an hour
Are they all napping now?
Btw is this happening in person or via Zoom? I’d hate for them to announce an omicron scare evacuation right before the final awards…
No idea.
No, they are unsure about the voting and decided to watch Drive my car together again in order to come to a conclusion.
To use Justin Chang’s pun, half of the voters had misunderstood what movie they were talking about whenever The Power of the Dog came up, instead thinking that they voted for The Souvenir Part II (The Power of the Hogg) and now they have to go through all the categories again to correct the list of winners
*insert joke about critics sleeping on your favorite movies*
But on a semi-serious note, not a bad idea.
22 mins for next generation and it’s a tie. Seriously
New Generation: TIE: Shatara Michelle Ford (Test Pattern) and Tatiana Huezo (Prayers for the Stolen)
Haven’t seen Prayers for the Stolen, but I’m a big Test Pattern fan, so I’m into that.
I’m really looking forward to seeing Test Pattern hopefully somewhat soon, and I think Prayers for the Stolen should be on Netflix.
Good to know about Prayers for the Stolen! Test Pattern is heavy, but it lands really well.
International films are just far superior this year and it’s so great that Drive My Car, The Worst Person in the World, Flee, Parallel Mothers, Titane are all showing up. And there’s still A Hero, Compartment No 6, The Hand of God, Great Freedom and more.
This year only? My perception is that international films are always so much better.
This year only? My perception is that international films are always so much better.
Shouldn’t that be normal though? The whole world vs. the U.S. (w/ UK support), there should be more products to compete.
Do they usually give special awards at this point? There doesn’t seem to be any announcement of them moving to Best Film
Foreign Language and Film are the only ones missing, right?
Yes, along with possibly the New Generation Award. They have at least in the past done Film first
Apparently New Generation is next
Three special awards have not been tweeted yet: New Generation, Legacy and Career Achievement (Mel Brooks)
The Brooks win was tweeted at the beginning
Ahhhh
New Generation next. Maggie G?
I don’t think so. She was already a famous actress before this. I’d predict maybe Janicza Bravo or Shatara Michelle Ford
I was thinking Lauren Hadaway.
That’s a strong possibility as well. Or maybe Emma Seligman
Hmm, I’d love this.
The last two awards of the evening might go to Titane and Drive my car.
Let’s be honest: Campion wins all those critics’ awards because she’s a woman, not because she is the best director of the year. Surely not better than Villeneuve, Spielberg, Hamaguchi, Paul Thomas Anderson, Radu Jude and many others. I mean: yeah, “The Power of the Dog” is directed well and if she won SOME awards it would be justified but almost ALL OF THEM? It’s ridiculous.
Lol eks dee
Actually I find it sexist that men cannot win even if they are better. America is so sexist nowadays. More than it was before #meToo era. 🙁 But now it is sexism against men.
Go back and review how many women have been nominated at all and educate yoself
What does it have to do with anything? I’m talking about this Oscar season, not about Oscar history.
History repeats itself
You say that like men don’t win for great films. You are an idiot
Sir, this is a Wendy’s.
“is directed well and if she won SOME awards it would be justified but almost ALL OF THEM? It’s ridiculous.”
your reasoning could apply to any film (of whatever award season) you felt that way about/ regardless of gender of director. so the because she’s female bit isn’t needed.
unless you want us to believe this is *the first time* you’ve felt underwhelmed by film doing well hat didn’t wow you…
You can’t spell “champion” without “Campion.”
I bet the Oscar producers are already trying to get Kathryn Bigelow and Chloe Zhao to present Directing together.
Only to give the Oscar to PTA or any other male contender
PTA who missed the Globe nomination and didn’t even manage to win LA where he always seems to win?
Used his named for the analogy, don’t believe he will win. Oscars may drop the ball is all I’m saying.
Can’t wait to get a repeat of Best Actor from this last year.
Ick.
Or if they really want to rub it in, Barbra Streisand!
Well, please no…. We need an actual director there, not a vain I-am-the-best-at-everything.
Yesss Campion !!!!
It would be surprising if Dog doesn’t take it now.
Directing took a long time and they might have negotiated something! But I’m shocked that PTA is doing so poorly. LA is usually always behind him.
Negotiating director, picture and foreign-language film
It would be weird if LP win BP w/o any other win?
It’s possible but rather unlikely. It got two runner-up mentions.
LP still has a shot. Descendants won BP w/ a RU in screenplay. And Tree of Life won BD, Sup. Actress and Cinematography. Dog could be ToL this year. 🙂
They could still do Drive My Car and choose something else for international?
They could. But that would be an identical repeat set of winners with NYFCC. Chance of that happening can be slim.
Well, they agreed only on directing, supporting actor (50%), and animated.
That would make it even more unlikely that they will agree again. 🙂
Agreed they don’t want to be the same as NY in picture, director & international
Yes, but the Dog has not been winning film even though Campion has been winning director. That’s worrying me in been confident that it will BP. It seems like a great respect for Campion but not absolute love for the film. That could be telling at the end.
It has now been mentioned 5 times today, way more than any other film. It seems that they like it bery bery much.
Today alone it won Utah & Phoenix. It has won at least 5 others, more than any other film.
This is so misleading. The Power of the Dog has the most critics’ wins for best picture right now, even some high-profile wins from the Southeastern Film Critics and the Chicago Film Critics.
It might only be my perception, but I expect it to pick BP when Campion wins. That’s not happening as often as it should. It seems people like it enough to recognise Campion, but not love so much to give it BP too. Have you seen it happen, the other way?
Once again, misleading. The film probably already has 10+ best picture wins from critics. No other film comes even close. Yes, it doesn’t happen everywhere but it didn’t with Nomadland and Roma either.
It’s not misleading. It’s not a question of whether it is beating the competition at the critics phase. That’s expected. I am just pointing out the disparity between director and BP win. I believe Campion is much more popular popular than her film. That’s why I think she’s very like to win BD. However, it’s less obvious that her film will win Best Picture. There are few reasons for that and I am picking up on the fact it isn’t winning BP when it should.
And where should it win? Because it’s been critics only so far. Should it have won NY? If I remember correctly, both Nomadland and Parasite did not. Or maybe the NBR? Both missed.
They went for the Irishman in Parasite year. And I don’t think Nomadland missed completely like The Dog has. Nomadland won bott Venice and Toronto and it was game from the moment that happened. PARASITE won Cannnes. And it much bigger competition.
BEST PICTURE WINS
The Power Of The Dog (7)- BOFCA, CFCA, NYFCO, PCC, PFCC, SEFCA, UFCA
Belfast (3)- LVFCS, PFCS, WAFCA
Drive My Car (2) – BSFC, NYFCC
Licorice Pizza (2) – AFCC, NBR
After Love – BIFA
Cyrano – DFCS
The Green Knight – PCA
Happening – VENICE
The Lost Daughter – GOTHAM
Quo Vadis, Aida? – EFA
Titane – CANNES
Campion has 13 wins now, so yes she is winning more than the film, but the film is winning too.
It didn’t win Venice or Toronto and those two have been a big clue in recent years. It missed NBR and and didn’t win NYFCC. It is just about what a film, but also what it didn’t win. That’s a clue to how it will fare fare at the Oscars. I think there’s clearly a hesitancy to go for it fully.
You said it hasn’t been winning film. And that’s your perception. Even though it’s false.
Now that it’s pointed out that it’s won 7, it’s not the right ones right?
Ii said it wasn’t winning BP when it should have. This just the critics phase so it’s not surprising that it is doing well compared to the competition. However, it’s always a worry when a film doesn’t win when it should. That’s a big clue that its might have weakness. The Oscars could be different story, but I tthink it is showing weakness that I didn’t expect at this stage.
I consider that Stewart and Cruz are the safest (one is in all the critics nominations, won some, while Cruz has the Volpi and now the LAFCA, both were recognized), Cumberbatch the same, although I still do not remove Smith (but this, they will take it personal lol)
Nice win for Cruz. I’ve always liked her. She’s at the top of my list of screen sirens who can act. Now dhe has LA and Volpi. Her chances of Oscsar nomination are much better now.
OT: COVID outbreak on SNL involving multiple cast members
NO live audience for SNL tonight. WTF is going on?
Yay Simon! I would love to see him enter the equation…
Will Smith looks more a pretender than a front runner, couldn’t even get a runner up where ellis got it
Smith being picked by LAFCA would’ve been a minor shocker though.
Will Smith’s gonna battle it out with Benedict Cumberbatch.
These are REALLY miles outside the box these choices….
These are really inspired and interesting choices so far!
They are outside the box. I think Drive My Car takes picture, even Director
I don’t know. Dog has been mentioned 4 times today (2 wins, 2 runner ups). It looks like they like the film very much.
Probably, but I sense Licorice Pizza is also an option for the win.
I have a feeling it might be Cruz, although Stewart should really win something high profile soon
Jennifer Hudson I bet.
The smug recap would be insufferable
I’ll listen for Sasha screaming with delight.
What an incredible year for documentaries.
A total of four screenplay winners in the history of LAFCA didn’t get Oscar nominations in screenplay: About Schmidt, Drugstore Cowboy, Return of the Secaucus 7 and Nashville.
Good factoid
Drive My Car could easily get 4-5 Oscar nominations
Picture, Director, Screenplay, International and what’s the fifth one?
Thats a bit of a stretch, they need to start winning a ton
They have been.
I think screenplay could easily happen, after that the directors’ branch might showcase their support as they have slightly more idiosyncratic tastes, whether it gets in for international feature is almost random but unless something very weird happens, it’ll probably get a nomination there. And at that point it might have enough support to get a picture nomination
I don’t think this is Parasite mk 2, but people who see it are falling all over themselves praising it. It is picking up steam.
Cinematography. Very crisply filmed.
International films have a good shot at getting nominated. Farhadi’s A Hero as well as Drive My Car are two very strong contenders. Not sure if Drive my Car is adapted or original.
Adapted. Based on a short story by Murakami
Chances are better there for the nomination.
Although I feel like often at the earlier stages original screenplay seems like the stronger category but eventually the Oscar voters just fill adapted screenplay up with garbage that’s “more important” and nominate one or two smaller movies in original
Adapted from a Murakami story
Maybe it’s just me but it seems like the Directors branch has been more courageous in recent years when it comes to nominating foreign films than the Screenplay ones
This is the only second time that they award it to a foreign language film. The other “A Separation”.
Then again, even something like The Lobster, which while in English is hardly the Academy’s cup of tea and basically the English language debut of a Greek director, got an Oscar nomination
Hamaguchi’s coming…
Broom, broom
Yeeeeees, Drive my car!!!
Screenplay: Runner-up: Licorice Pizza
Another prediction: wasted
Winner: Drive My Car
Drive My Car will likely be an adapted screenplay nominee. The category is so weak this year.
Damn it, I was too stuck in my head to give Drive my car the win. Went with Licorice Pizza instead, just needed to swap them out.
PTA win wouldn’t surprise me.
No, that´s my pick too.
Let me guess…lunch time?
Yes, it started about 20 minutes ago. At least 10 more probably
That’s cool. I gotta go across the street and wade through the Spider-man kids to re-watch WSS.
Lunch Time for screenplay?
Ratatouille wins…calling it now
No for best craft service.
Animation:
Flee
Runner-up: Belle
Belle hasn’t been getting a lot of love this awards season.
Supporting Actor: Vincent Lindon (Titane) and Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Tie?
Yup
Flashbacks to Christoph Waltz and Paul Schneider sharing Supporting Actor at I believe the NSFCA in 2009?
Checks out. And frankly, two deserving winners.
Plenty of LAFCA ties in the last 10 years: off the top of my head, Del Toro and Luca Guadagnino shared directing, Lawrence and Riva shared actress, Fincher shared directing in 2010.
Goooood picks!
Smit-McPhee thankfully cementing frontrunner status.
I think Kodi will win the whole shebang. While supporting actor category favors older veterans, it isn’t exclusive, and he has the biggest impact on the plot. Literally the reason why people talk about the movie. Also, psychos/disturbed/evil did well in this category – Joker, Chigurh.
I’m still convinced the Academy will think he’s too young and they’ll have multiple chances to award him again
He has been acclaimed for fourteen years, the ‘young’ thing isn’t a factor in his circumstance.
And yet he is still very young. Ronan hasn’t won either for i think the same reason
As they did with Tatum O’neal and Anna Paquin.
Who are both women. The Academy is historically more hesitant to reward young men. You’d have to go all the way back to Ordinary People to find a time they’ve awarded someone KSP’s age
Herzog’s right. The Academy is historically more hesitant to reward young men. Kodi Smit-McPhee is 25. Timothy Hutton (”Ordinary People”) is the youngest guy to win an Oscar at 20. Only a handful of young men have achieved that in their 20s: Adrien Brody, George Chakiris, Cuba Gooding Jr. and Heath Ledger.
And he was virtually a lead.
I don’t see where you’re going with this
I’m saying if Timothy Hutton’s part were smaller, he too might have been passed over
But it wasn’t, and he wasn’t. We could argue about hypotheticals all day
If you like, but my picture is about to start.
As long as the winner isn’t Kotsur cause that would be a pure disability win. I don’t mind a veteran who paid his dues 1000 times over to win something finally but Kotsur barely has anything on his resume.
I have a feeling this is more of a problem in the lead categories… (Haven’t checked the history to see if I can back this up. Just feels like that’s the case.)
Who’s the youngest supporting actor winner in the past 40 years? Paquin made it, Wallis got a nom, but someone like Jacob Tremblay got in at SAG but missed at the Oscars. Funny how a bunch of pedos won’t go for young men lol
Right, yeah, forgot about the anti-boys bias they have, in the moment… 🙂
Yassss Titane give rises! Hahaha
Do only certain categories have runners-up?
Nope. All.
Which ones are you missing the runners-up in?
I’m just going by the reporting above. Several only show a winner.
Documentaries usually have great editing not sure why they don’t show up more at the Oscars.
Editing in doc to me is different than editing in fiction. The first is about gathering, searching for footage to create a narrative. A monumental task. The latter is following a prescribed narrative and sharpen it. Not trying to explain why the Oscars don’t usually include docs in editing. But the two are different animals IMO.
I just saw WSS this morning. Overall a great filmmaking. Rachel Zegler is quite good and I would be totally fine if she got nomination. But Ariana was really something! I could not take my eyes off of her whenever she was on screen! So much talent! She really deserves the nomination, and even the win at the end. She is just great!
And it would be great and quite historical if she and Kristen Stewart won together in the same year;))
Production Design: Runner-up: Nightmare Alley
Winner: Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar
Damn, I have to confess I haven´t heard about this film…
It is a day-glo comedic delight
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo’s Bridesmaids follow-up. It’s understandable why you might not have heard about it, the movie fell from an awards perspective into a weird midground: it was released in February, which means that it was eligible for the 2020 Oscars but it came too late in that season to really be noticed in the Oscar race.
Finally something I’ve seen! https://media3.giphy.com/media/8VPxsrRnlmI4fYiX0c/giphy.gif
Damn, I guess I restrict myself to the gif… 😀
I particularly enjoy those starring Jamie Dornan:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fda9c0d5d8ca6c86b404906d4cd8a796a83d492c4e76be4f1b18d883bbfa3727.gif
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3e68dd7197edfb3c7b2c93880b3e50ac99700c9e91dc98dc9df6006eb1c287db.gif
https://media1.giphy.com/media/LPW2bUc9310rAsMegJ/giphy.gif
Time for me to catch up on it, I forgot that this existed since its premiere! I loved Bridesmaids so have high hopes.
It’s mindless fun. Don’t expect a masterpiece though.
Well f*ck me sideways that’s a surprise
They went Heavy on the 80’s nostalgia. Kind of a wacky pick.
A surprise to be sure, but a welcome one
But I still won’t predict Jamie Dornan to win supporting for this and Belfast. (Should I?)
I don’t see him as the winner, but runner up? Strange things are afoot at the LAFCA…
LAFCA likes to spread the wealth.
Aussie cinematographers punching above our weight. Winner and runner up! Very proud of our DOP’s.
The height of digital video.
that needle is really stuck isn’t it?
In a few years you might even discover that you can make effects with computers
Yes Joe, cinema can be digital now, very good
It has its fans for sure.
Just like that rock and roll “noise” those kids keep listening to. It will never last 😉
Quentin, PTA, Wes, Damien Chazelle and I can take the insults.
I don’t think that word means what you think it means. This is playful ribbing. Don’t be such a snowflake old man
I said I CAN take it.
Alright, let me try to predict the next one as bad as the previous category – best production design comes next … I´d say Nightmare Alley.
Runner up: Dune
In fact I first wanted to predict that one but hesitated because I felt that it´s probably not the right choice for this group.
This could be a drinking game! Problem is, for me, it is breakfast time! Another swig of coffee if you get one correct, Dominik! 🙂
It´s close to nine o´clock evening time here, Dave – the perfect time to drink one cocktail for each wrong pick!
i like that spirit (oops, sorry)
I bet they choose Licorice Pizza. Hometown bonus.
Next up supporting actress – any last minute predictions?
I´d say … Jessie Buckley (mainly in order to avoid the more obvious pick Dunst).
I’ve got Ruth Negga but Buckley’s a really strong prediction.
Any surprises in the big 8?
Hamaguchi for Best Director – Drive my car and Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy.
Drive my car has been circulating pretty heavy. That would be awesome.
I think Hamaguchi will be a Best Director nominee
I have to upvote this even though I remain a bit sceptical about the film´s Oscar prospects…
Music/Score Runner-up: Jonny Greenwood (The Power of the Dog, Spencer)
I wonder why they didn’t also include Licorice Pizza
And Spencer!
Edit: My fault, just realised it´s included…
They did include Spencer
Not even a runner up for Hans Zimmer?
He’ll get his Oscar nom don’t fret
So far Power of the Dog may have the advantage over Dune going into oscars. Believe Dune’s a lock for Production design instead of cinematography.