This is our final Oscar Squad for calendar year 2021.
We’ve seen Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and major critics groups weigh in. We’ve also seen the public weigh in with box office returns, and many Oscar-whispered films have underperformed, to say the least. Will the holiday corridor improve their financial positions? That feels unlikely as Marvel’s Spider-Man: No Way Home seems destined to soak up all available movie screens in the country, feeding the seemingly insatiable appetite for Marvel superhero films. Will Spider-Man factor into the Best Picture lineup after critical acclaim, an A+ Cinemascore, and record-setting box office, pandemic be damned? As of now, only Sasha is predicting it, but the opening of the Best Picture lineup to 10 films was always designed to reward more audience friendly pictures. Will Spidey benefit from that?
At any rate, these events have all impacted the Squaddies, and our charts remain largely unchanged. Sure, there are a few shifts here and there, but we’ve only really seen one major change since our last publication.
Benedict Cumberbatch overtakes presumed Oscar front-runner Will Smith in the Best Actor race.
That is, in the eyes of the Oscar Squad. Why the shift? Well, Cumberbatch has performed very well in critics awards, but critics aren’t Academy members. Even though King Richard performed well in the Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations, buzz for Smith’s performance seems to have diminished significantly. But would Smith have ever been ahead at this moment in the Oscar race? Wait for SAG and BAFTA to weigh in, although the latter may benefit Cumberbatch more than Smith. See last year’s Best Actor race…
Here are the latest charts. We probably won’t weigh in again until after the currently scheduled Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards in 2022. Assuming the Omicron variant doesn’t impact those schedules either.
Until then, Happy Holidays readers! Stay safe, and have a great season ahead.
Catch you in 2022.
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Let move on cos i smell the foul stench of ANOTHER WHAT SURE TO BE COSTLY SOULD- DESTROYING AWARDS SEASON OUTCOME It is clear as crystal it be split between Belfast and Power of the Dog. You all watch people..it will further drive the Academy to ruin in the eyes of many.
Visionary filmmaking..big studio bankrolled stuff that highly critically acclaimed that NOT MCU OR DC related for clarity..not Jurassic Park but stand out either accidental or bigger than expected studio releases that become event films through gaining momentum with both critics and audiences alike that take EFFORT AND WAY ABOVE AVERAGE IN CINEMATIC EXECUTION . Good example is Avatar as far as nominated innovative visionary films..where are they? irrespective of awards seasons lamest most insulting of excuses : “but we in a pandemic what can we do but let streaming services and aligned aggressive pigheadedness on social media take over our voting?” well i tell them all right now that is absolute HOGWASH BULLSHIT i have seen MYSELF a slew of films released during pandemic era that NOT aligned to comic book/jurassic park/ mcu or dc made by big studios…that had they been nominated since the Pandemic and treated with more respect then they were given- they were given lip service really..
Then we have a totally different debate instead of bemoaning the ever terminal self inflicted decline of public appeal of awards season we be talking how it would be TURNING A CORNER.
Look at slew of next year releases.
Forget Belfarce sorry unoriginal unimaginative..just good ol’ story bout a directors own family background..NOWHERE NEAR AS INSPIRING AS SAM MENDES OWN BACK STORY heritage film tying into trenches of WWI ..fair comparison so every filmmaker that tells story bout their familyu to share their film dubbed a masterpiece? takes more than black and white photography to justify a win what a joke!
here are some titles to watch out for for 2023 oscar season: always looking forward there HOPE (MAYBE WE SEE I DUNNO LOL DEPENDS ON ATTITUDE OF AWARDS SEASON EY? DEPENDS HOW FAR THEY GO TO FORESAKE VISIONARY EPIC STORYTELLING INC ORIGINAL STORIES ON BIG SCREEN IN EXCHANGE FOR MORE SAME BELOW AVERAGE FARE WE SEEN GETTING BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT OVER BIG STUDIO FILMS IN LAST 15 FUKIN YEARS (MOSTLY BAR 4 FILM TITLES AT THE MOST!):
1. Brannagh’s “Death in the Nile” could outdo Belfast supposed overrated ‘achievement ‘ and in fact be my no.1 choice for best film next year huge cast even more ambitious mystery thriller set in Egypt no less…been far too long since there been a serious mystery drama/ thriller set in sands of Nile can’t wait! This could should be Brannagh’s breakthrough win next year perhaps..NOT THIS YEAR! NO WAY!
2. Operation Fortune by Guy Ritchie- how much longer are oscar gonna ignore heights this filmmakers pioneering comedy- action – crime caper passions that always popular with audiences and critics?
3. Arctic Void- could be the most visionary arctic survival mystery thriller setting film made yet
4. The Kashmir Files I don’t know bout it plot as in i really dont know but this sound like a geopolitical historic factual/ conflict drama in world of espionage by Indian Filmmaker now THIS is TYPE of films that foreign filmmakers should be encouraged to make to legitimately qualift for best picture AND foreign language film.
5. The King’s Daughter maybe a fictitious story, but this could be a surprise contender given it authentic costume design, period setting and telling of inspired motivations of real King Louis XIV but it has to have some substance to it not just style could be a surprise contender thought~
six. Strawberry Mansion could redefine the parameters of storytelling and filmmaking in polar opposite style to Nolan in terms of focusing on how govts record dreams and taxes them in parallell universe where dreams are the new revenue base for govts..or? maybe it takes inception concept further with lot more inspired angle politically? could be a surprise original hit..we need more them rto compete ey?
7. Big Gold Brick..it may be at surface biographical drama/ comedy fantasy which already impressive in concept given it is not about well known widely knopwn true character once existed but it could also impress many with it authentic semi period/ contemporary setting to compete in ’22 because it least on rotyten tomatoes described as a ‘ darkly comedic genre bending film’
Eight. Unwelcome isn’t it time for a substantial horror drama genre to be taken seriosuly when it tries to challenge cleches ? if there one filmmaker knows how to breathe realism and crediblity believability in most he touches it director Joe Wright..who been nominated this year.. he has this gem of a horror mystery thriller with a dark twist or 3! namely the threat is not force in house they in the threat is the help couple need from ANOTHER threat now THAT is BIGGEST SHIFT YET in turning established genre on it head! go UNWELCOME!
9. Can the incredibly most prolific talented majestic actor Nicholas Cage rise to the podium as both producer and get long overdue second acting oscar in same year? if one actor epitomises starringh in visionary and challenging films with even more demanding roles more than any other actor his generation it Nicholas Cage- seldom in a flop an entirely inventive creative plot in film WEIGHT OF MASSIVE TALENT Cage effectively must perform much of his past on screen personas in past roles through being recruited by the CIA as only way to save himself and his loved ones from being executed by people= wait for it who were agrieved and interconnected with Cage’s stalking of a superbowl fan or something like that i think…sound interesting maybe time for Cage to be saluted not once but twice in one year as producer and actor? why fuk not?!
10. THE 355 i save the potential best till last the FIRST EVER ALL female all star big budget majestic contemporary multi faceted espionage comedy thriller starring role call of oscar nominated talen…Gugino, Biel, Chastain, you name it..and director well known too and possibly overdue..in Simon Kinberg, also stars Nyongo, Kruger girl power but far more sincere than Charlie’s Angel ..shot in as many locations as a bond film and a standalone expionage thriller…set from Shanghai to Morocco, Paris to Washington DC…this could be the BIGGEST surprise in time where there call for women to be prominent starting to but to do so in big budget action espionage studio event film well that take role of women in cinema to a whole NEW level. never been done before as far i know all female dominated espionage action thriller drama..with an entirely original concept watch these titles peopl1
THE BIGGEST QUESTION COURSE IS: WILL AWARDS SEASON NEXT YEAR GO DOWN THIS SAME WRACK AND RUIN PATH FOR THIS YEARS CONTENDERS AND MAKE EXCUSES TO SACRIFICE MOST OF THESE TITLES HAVE SERIOUS POTENTIAL TO BREATHE NEW LIFE IF MOST THESE 10 TREATED WITH RESPECT THEY DESERVES IN NEXT YEARS AWARDS SEASON IN ACADEMY? GUILDS AND GLOBES? FUTURE CAN LOOK BRIGHT IF OSCAR CHOOSE RIGHT DECISIONS
as this be my last post…feel free to correct me or add aqnytrhing to 10 film titles i mentioned they warrant potential serious consideration next year going into 2023 ey? wishi you all on this optimistic not merry xmas take care enjoy ability at last spend with loved ones be safe, travel safe take care: 🙂
– Visionary filmmaking
– the films you listed
Pick one
U challenge me pick one? Hmm I admit I speculating on some thrm but going by type in part won in past in lot instances that will challenge future awards season on thinking outside the box anyone excited bout potential in next year’s awards season of titles I mentioned?
Off topic but is there something you can do to stop this silly website making me sign in every 5 minutes?
It’s annoying to see the blocked account posts all the time.
See attached this just tip of the iceberg as far my strategy publicly expose awards season favouritism over big studio high quality semievent big screen movie https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/62199bb2a455f0d5b29325910c66ab95fdcda393f6120fa27daedae2601edd93.jpg
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10165871456560574&id=903950573&sfnsn=mo
My unashamed war on online sociological extreme left idealists has ramped up THIS time after containing my outrage at manner in which awards season left itself exposed to politically correct , toxic intimidation , standover bullying tactics by farcebook and twitter, I invite u all comment it public comment accessible on my fbook account it experiment I interested see how many will abuse
me from radical online left I expecting it..I can’t are it. If it happens s u see uslves how vile radical extreme left tainted ripping soul out of what AMPAS stands for rely is.
If I don’t get any response Or vitriol hurled at me then perhaps pple be SHOCKED I have guts to stick it to those behind diminishing returns reflective through awards season ‘ s seriously tainted choices mostly in last 15 yrs or so…
I NOT like Sasha and many others guardisns for common sense in name of defending the tradition of due respect to big studio films just gonna give raducal left extreme socialists free reign from scrutiny.
There is counter revolution coming. I advocate for new age rationalism balance between contenders all treated equal of.big screen part mainstream and small time release that.more u progressive msg.film . Not like radical.left sociologist lunatics who.howl.down others who have diff view to them cos films I or others like are not ‘ socially relevant’ enough ..
Feel free to join or.not up you correction comment. On.my.facebook.this post.
Turning point begins
….change for better is inevitable I AM the radical extreme lefts worst nightmare rational..common sense.. restoring respectability to what awards season should stand for. One person started change for the worse in awards season ….it was only idea…like.in “Inception” you need to distort the idea within, to change the way an organisation thinks.. one small.idea..is all it.takes…
It TIME semblance of sanity and balance to return awards season to middle ground to reconnect to positive virtue of.it.pnce revered celebrated publicly history.
..minus the racism..the stigma, etc..I ask.open question to radical socialist left online morons…” what.is it.you fear u cannot accept voters and those within film.. industry in more rational parts of the press that could be value in u accepting not abusing alternate views what has radical socialist left got to fear?”
If TPOTD wins BP, will it assume the title of the least-seen BP winner ever? A check of the boxofficemojo site shows only an overseas gross of $175,000. Netflix will never report $$ for any of its movies. Just wondering.
It did reach number 1 on top 10 viewed list on Netflix in most western countries so it has been reasonably successful
It was #1 globally on Netflix.
Is there actually a global top 10 somewhere? I have never actually seen it – I just know from talking to others that it was number 1 in us and uk and a number of others and I saw it being no 1 here in NZ for quite a while
They tweeted the #1 globally on 8 December https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/95bb1a11735b0b37ce2e01ea282eb80c8f260086cce779fa15ff60e64c4e1277.jpg
Ahhh I didn’t see that, thanks! I wonder if they have a list that is ever made public
Don’t know but if you had told me a year ago a Jane Campion film would be #1 globally on Netflix I would never have believed you.
There still no credible proven way to gage vume of viewers o streaming sites vs. Ease measure traditional box office. Foolish decision to only release on streaming, abandon traditional openings. Outrageous actually . It easy for streaming services specifically those small time films like Power of the Dog producers to shamelessly exploit the cloak and dagger proof that one can see in traditional box office..so it MOST unconvincing Power of Dog or Belfast are.no.1 convincingly at all. Alex u right to be sceptical and suspicious as number pple are
I would think Nomadland is the least, no? Wasn’t TPOTD number 1 worldwide on Netflix or something like that?
Nomadland got almost $40mil worldwide in theaters, actually (but about 90% outside of U.S. since it streamed so early here).
I know the purists among us are still wedded to the notion that the only way people see movies is in a cinema, but welcome to the 21st Century and a Pandemic. And you’d be kidding yourself if you thought a fraction of AMPAS members saw a fraction of the movies in contention on a big screen. They don’t even pay; given invites to special screenings and premieres. And I fathom that many folks who frequent this site and its editors don’t support the industry either by paying for a ticket. Stuff gets given, or downloaded. I don’t pay to see the films I judge for AACTA other than a membership fee. I do support film festivals and art house cinemas.
Screeners are no different to streaming. AMPAS voters have been using screeners for decades! So what difference does it make what the Box office is for a Best Picture winner? We are beyond those years now imho.
At some point a BP winner will be from a Streaming service.
Television and movies stopped being pure mediums when phones and tablets allowed consumers to watch content on the train or in a cafe.
And many watch them in their big, at-home L.A. style screening rooms, regardless.
exactly, so when people make comparisons as to the box office returns from AMPAS winners, it has little meaning. If it were the People’s Choice Awards and they gave their Best Film to the least seen movie of the year – that would be a disconnect.
Yea. Voters I know either watch their screeners at-home (again, many have the $ for those fancy rooms, others half watch from their bedrooms at night and ‘maybe’ watch the whole thing) or (in less Covid times) go to the voter screenings so they could wine and dine with Q&A’s (many voters are still older and want to schmooze with today’s stars). So, in (non-covid times), Netflix, like a Universal, still does those screenings at a big theater anyway. So, yea, not the, “darn, got to see it at 11.20am at AMC with the public” kind of thing.
Then, of course, all those that skip most of them but vote anyway. 🙂
Granted there were fewer films to watch but when i first joined the AFI (Australian Film Institute) back in the 1980’s, you had to get a physical card stamped when you attended the screenings, and only once your card was full, could you then get voting papers! Then they relaxed that, and then screenings for many years has been via a portal through the AACTA website. An honour system 🙂
I guess it’s whatever meaning or significance we take from this circus and merry go round of awards that determines our attachment to the outcomes. For me, I am just eternally grateful for the movies, the stories, the actors, the visionaries that create the magic and I don’t care whether they come from a big studio; a hand made production, a film festival or the biggest hit of the year – great movies are great movies.
It’s their prize; it’s their hoopla and their reputation. I love the whole palava, and rejoice when my tastes coincide, and like everyone else pummel them with insults when they get it ‘wrong’. Fun and Games!
I’ve always wanted to have a ballot. It’s all silly, mostly. But fun. I haven’t lived in L.A. since the days of endless DVD screeners, but I miss this time of year when your voting friends would pass them around or you’d just pick up something from the stack at the office.
yes exactly. why shouldn’t the love be shared around! there’s nothing pure about this process. 🙂
I like the idea of having to watch the films before voting for them. I think foreign film had a process for signing off on screenings. Plenty of anecdotal reports of voters not watching the films. I can’t believe they can’t make the effort to at least watch the 10 main contenders
there was this bizarre rule back in the day that you had to watch the first reel at least of a film. If you walked out before the first 20 minutes had been screened, your card was not valid! Daft rule, as you can’t expect to judge a film from its first reel only. I remember wanting to walk out of a movie that ended up winning an AFI for Best Actress. Weekend with Kate i think it was. with Colin Friels and Catherine McClements who ended up winning. It was awful. But we stayed……
Mmm, WWK was not good. CMC was fine in it, but she won owing to a lack of strong competition (and probably the fact that she was also in STRUCK BY LIGHTNING that year).
Incidentally, I had a good time earlier in the year with a bunch of rare Aussie titles of the past, thanks to a couple of now-tragically-shut-down websites. I appreciated the chance to see DOCTORS AND NURSES, A STREET TO DIE, SHORT CHANGED, WITH PREJUDICE, TOUCH AND GO, and especially JILTED.
oh wow, blasts from the past! Love Chris Haywood. Got to meet him and it was such a thrill; been a fan for like 5 decades! And Jilted was my first year in the AFI and the beautiful Tina Bursill deservedly won her Supp Actress prize for it. Another local legend. Touch and Go – was Chantal Contouri? And Doctors and Nurses – was Gary McDonald? I’m running off the top of my head here, F.T We must be of the same vintage.
Bert Newton! i looked it up…..
I’m 39 years old but into a lot of stuff from the 80s era.
Mmm, TAG had CC in it. GMD would probably have been at home in DAN if he’d been cast. His lack of a nomination for SBL was just one contentious aspect of possibly the weirdest AFI Awards ever (the directing winner not nominated for Best Film and vice-versa).
Actually, the weirdest was when a NZ film swept (not for the last time), SHAME was shamefully deemed ineligible, and the writing awards went on strike along with the writers.
You are a wonderful old soul then. 🙂 great committment to local content, F.T 🙂 I hadn’t thought of those title for decades! I looked up Doctors and Nurses, I’d long forgotten its premise. what a bizarre idea – but not surprising from Maurice Murphy. What an innovator he was in the industry.
I was just about to credit MM with the first feature film entirely set and shot on a real nude beach (featuring multiple cast members whom I number among my acquaintances and/or colleagues)- and then I remembered that was SA’s own Wayne Groom with MASLIN BEACH.
Murphy may well have given WG the idea with a sequence in EXCHANGE LIFEGUARDS (which will always be worth a footnote for its bringing together the talents of Julian McMahon, Christopher Atkins, & Elliott Gould).
Ever seen ‘The Killing of Angel St”? 1981 Elizabeth Alexander. I had a huge crush on her when i was a kid. She was in Seven Little Australians. (Jennifer Cluff too, broke my heart in that). What a series.
I have seen TKOAS; didn’t mind it, though doesn’t compare very favourably to Noyce’s HEATWAVE in my opinion. EA is very watchable, though.
I saw the end of SLA many years ago, but never went back to sample the rest.
I was 10 when Seven Little Australians premiered. The novel was among my favourites as a kid. It impacted me so much.
I thought The Killing Of Angel St was underappreciated at the time. the early 80’s were a fascinating time for the industry after the resurgence in the mid 70’s. I became interested in our films after Storm Boy and The Picnic At Hanging Rock. Those two works really kicked off my obsession with our film industry.
I am so incredibly proud of our renaissance directors. Noyce, Schepisi, Armstrong, Beresford, Weir. They made such incredible movies here and abroad.
I am beyond relieved that Armstrong’s HIGH TIDE has made it to streaming. It needs and deserves greater exposure and recognition.
I think ‘High Tide’ is my most beloved Australian film – an odd choice, I know, but I just adore it. Gillian Armstrong is just an amazing storyteller. Judy Davis just acts rings around any other actor in the world today. Claudia Karvan showed maturity way beyond her years in that movie.
I think my runner up would be Carl Schultz’s ‘Careful He Might Hear You’. I watched it on Netflix a few months ago and was floored by it all over again. I had a VHS copy for years, and saw it so many times. Definitely my favourite costume drama we ever made. I was absolutely gaga over Wendy Hughes as a teen. Got to meet her when she came into Grace Bros and I was working in the toy department, i was 18. I was STARSTRUCK. I sold her a lot of stuff and chatted all the while. She was so charming and full of grace. Her death several years back really devastated me.
It would be more predictable for me to say Gallipoli or Picnic at Hanging Rock or My Brilliant Career as my favourite – but i think it is the little Aussie films that have impacted me most. Neil Armfield’s ‘Holding The Man’, Rolf de Heer’s ‘Bad Boy Bubby’, or Ken Cameron’s ‘Monkey Grip’ – so many to choose from….
Do you have an all time fave?
A tough one to answer – because my tastes are always changing/evolving, and because there are some titles that stand very tall in my estimation but which I’m reluctant to regard as Aussie (Babe, The Navigator, even Moulin Rouge! or Mad Max: Fury Road).
I guess my number-one is still the original Storm Boy.
And i forgot about the inimitable Paul Cox who obviously was not an Aussie, but did all his films (or almost all) here. What a filmmaker. I used to get so excited when a new movie by Paul Cox was coming out. ‘Lonely Hearts’ my favourite.
The DVD of INNOCENCE is worth tracking down purely for the Cox commentary track which was apparently libelous enough that certain names have been bleeped-out.
Nice to see a High Tide fan club here, I particularly adore it as well, certainly treasure my dvd. The only few I might rate ahead of it out of the 600+ I’ve seen include Wake in Fright, The Proposition and Picnic at Hanging Rock.
I liked the Castle ,and Gallipoli was iconic , while Priscalla was hilarious … rabbit proof fence
There’s something errie, sinister and timeless about the outback , and I should know as I became lost and disorientated while riding a horse west of Alice ; fortunately for me it was only september or I may have perished out there … there were no reference points on the landscape and I was moving in circles
I once saw a photo of an obscure beach in the dreamy ”Gulf of Carpentaria ” in the top end , and there were dozens of large salwater Crocs lumbering on the beach and I instantly got the sensatation of time travel as it must have looked just like that back in the Jurastic period … the aboriginal people sense this timelessness in their ”Dreamtime”
I liked Struck By Lightning – HUGE Garry McDonald fan. He should have won Best Actor for it.
Thanks for your comment.
“At some point a BP winner will be from a Streaming service.”
I’m old school, I guess, and I want the Oscars to hold the line against streaming for as long as humanly possible. Some traditions are worth keeping alive, as in an actual studio releasing a movie into theaters.
Just got out of Matrix Resurrections. I have to say, I really had a great time. And it has a great message or two, at least for me.
Branagh’s recent era of directions have also been fairly average which doesn’t inspire confidence, and given the auteurs he’ll be facing in Best Director he feels a no-hoper there. I recently liked Thor and All is True, but you don’t come out of those films praising the direction necessarily, but some of his other mainstream work is putrid.
I think the supporting nom sweeps with some groups hides the vulnerabilities in the top couple categories. I’m a huge fan of KSM and Hinds, so if those two face-off I’ll be delighted. I think Balfi has a
path given DeBose is the only stern contender there to me. I wonder if Belfast (sight unseen) will speak to the recent period of sardined/separated lockdown families and also seasonally benefit.
Full Florida list
Best Picture
Winner: The Power of the Dog
Runner-up: Annette
Best Director
Winner: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Runner-up: Leos Carax, Annette
Best Actor
Winner: Adam Driver, Annette
Runner-up: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Best Actress
Winner: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Runner-up: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Supporting Actor
Winner: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-up: Vincent Lindon, Titane
Best Supporting Actress
Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Runner-up: Ruth Negga, Passing
Best Original Screenplay
Winner: Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
Runners-up: Leos Carax, Ron & Russell Mael, Annette; Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy; Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Best Adapted Screenplay
Winner: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Runners-up: Tony Kushner, West Side Story; Steven Levenson, tick, tick… Boom!
Best Ensemble
Winner: Mass
Runner-up: Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy
Best Animated Film
Winner: Encanto
Runners-up: Evangelion 3.0+1.0 Thrice Upon a Time, Flee, Josep
Best Documentary
Winner: Summer of Soul
Runner-up: Procession
Best Foreign Language Film
Winner: The Hand of God
Runners-up: Drive My Car, Titane, Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy
Best Cinematography
Winner: Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog
Runners-up: Janusz Kamiński, West Side Story; Claire Mathon, Spencer
Best Art Direction/Production Design
Winner: Dune
Runner-up: Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar
Best Score
Winner: Hans Zimmer, Dune
Runner-up: Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog
Best Visual Effects
Winner: Dune
Runner-up: Annette
Best First Film
Winner: Michael Sarnoski, Pig
Runners-up: Fran Kranz, Mass; Rebecca Hall, Passing
Breakout Award
Winner: Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Runner-up: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Glad to see all the Annette love from Florida ! In both the Cahier du Cinema and Sight and Sound year end polls aAnnette was runner up in Cahier and number nine in S&S
There is no doubt that Adam Driver gives a fully committed performance in ‘Annette’ but I found it an indulgent, and repetitive movie. And the songs; other than the opening number, i thought were so uninteresting. One line of dialogue repeated in song, does not an Original Song make!
Runner up for Best Picture? Ok, another Critics list.
Thank you for saying this! I think Carax directed the hell out of it (the sequence on the boat was so memorable!) and the cinematography was gorgeous. But Cotillard had no character to play and Driver was great in his monologue/stand up routines but his singing did NOT do it for me (except for one of his last songs) and I almost actively hated all of the music except for the opening number. I was prepared to chalk it up to going over my head.
I guess this is a movie people loved or didn’t love. That said, i didn’t hate it, but it tried my patience and i found the songs so inane, and the theatrics and absurdity of it, flicked me in and out of being connected to it. Marion Cotillard is one of my favourite actresses so to see her given so little to do was disappointing. And Simon Helberg wasted really. The opening promised a lot but didn’t deliver for me.
Those stand ups were pretty ‘out there’ and perhaps too languid, but maybe I just didn’t get what Carax was trying to do. I can deal with bizarre – Lars Von Trier, Michel Gondry movies but this was just so bloated and self conscious. But i did appreciate how committed Adam Driver was to the project. Brave!
Yes the boat sequence was amazing.
I hated it. Like really hated it. Like wanted to walk out hated it. Really liked the first song and that’s it. It was painful. Worst film of the year for me.
Like you, I thought the first song had some lilt, but that was all I found interesting. I stopped watching halfway through. I couldn’t bear it, it was so bad. I couldn’t imagine what Cotillard and Driver, two thoughtful actors, were telling themselves as they followed this inane direction. But what had they thought when they first read the script? I was astounded at how atrociously poor it all was.
Exactly, I spent the whole time thinking what were Cotillard & Driver thinking when they signed up to this?
Yeah, and I actually shouldn’t judge a movie I only half-watched, so my opinion doesn’t amount to all that much, I suppose. But wild horses couldn’t drag me across the room to my computer to get me to restart the movie at the halfway point, where I stopped watching. Life’s too short. Their mistake doesn’t have to metastasize into mine.
I made it all the way through. I have to see if (when) the filmmaker brings the elements together. It does come together, but it is so indulgent and silly, that its production values and performers are wasted with the construct and conceit of the movie.
Thanks for the information, or warning. I won’t be going back.
fair enough 🙂
How to explain its wins so far in the season? I don’t expect the Guilds to go for it, but why Cannes and popped up in several critics lists?
“It’s different, it’s unusual”
Kath & Kim reference for my Aussie friends
it is that!
Agree with all of that. I think Helberg really made a lot out of very little. Driver is an actor that I generally like (even going back to “Girls”) but I fear that he’s gone down the Shia LaBeouf rabbit hole of “performative authenticity” (a review of “Pieces of a Woman” said that and it instantly summed up what I normally find irritating about his performances) where he’s going to make you believe he means it even if by force. It’s why I think ScarJo bested him in “Marriage Story” in my opinion.
I haven’t always liked Driver on screen. I thought Marriage Story was his high point so far. But i am a sucker for a divorce drama with a cute kid in it. Both Scarlet and Adam gave their all in that movie. The second time i watched it, it was so much more powerful, not sure why.
I only had eyes for Vanessa Kirby in that movie; yes he was doing some Brando-esque theatrics. I am still sad for Kirby that despite being nommed for all 4 – GG, SAG, BAFTA and Oscar – she won none. But she did win Venice. Only she and McDormand were up for all 4 of those. I really thought BAFTA would go for her, but the movie got such mixed responses, but her turn was just transcendent.
I think Driver was very good in “Marriage Story” but the narrative I kept hearing was that he gave a superior performance. I thought she outshone him. Maybe that’s just my preference.
I thought Kirby was incredible and may have only had her behind Aubrey Plaza in “Black Bear” that year. On the topic of McDormand, I felt that “Nomadland” was a richly deserved win for her. I know some people here were up in arms about FM having 3 Best Actress Oscars vs Meryl having 2 Lead and 1 Supporting but as much as I ADORE Meryl and think she’s one of the GOATS, she could not have given the performance that Frances gave in the same way. Frances understood that character in her bones and a lot of times (to me) was indistinguishable visually than the non-actors in the film (without really doing anything to alter her appearance). That character resonated so much with her that it radiated from her. Maybe that’s just my take (and a less showy performance is always going to be more my cup of tea) but I thought she was exquisite and definitely deserved her win.
I know this is all off topic but I’m off of work until January and I never generally have this much time to talk about these things.
Go West Side Story!
It’s good to read your thoughts, BJ. I really liked ‘Nomadland’ but not a huge Frances fan. I think it is one of her best performances and as you point out, it was nuanced work that was intrinsically humane and compassionate and it clearly resonated for lots of people, me included. I still would have liked Carey Mulligan or Vanessa Kirby to win, but Frances is a force to be reckoned with. Normally showy = Oscar so it was interesting to see Frances win with one of her least mannered and least showy performance. Just stripped back and very generous with the other actors and non actors and sharing the vision that Zhao clearly had with her.
I also loved Carey in “Promising Young Woman” (peoples say last year was a weak year and I totally get it, but I feel like most of the things nominated were more my speed so I loved it). What a tough year in the Best Actress category!
A smattering of my favorite performances this year: Rachel Sennot in “Shiva Baby”, Tessa Thompson and Ruth Negga in “Passing”, Agathe Rousselle and Vincent Lindon in “Titane”, Morfydd Clark and Jennifer Ehle in “Saint Maud”, Niamh Algar in “Censor”, Cumberbatch, Dunst, and Smit McPhee in “Power of the Dog”, Patti Harrison in “Together”, Simon Rex and Bree Elrod in “Red Rocket”, Jim Cummings in “The Beta Test”, Andrew Garfield in “Tick, Tick…BOOM!”, Nina Arianda, Alia Shawkat, and Tony Hale in “Being the Ricardos”, Ariana DeBose, Rita Moreno, and Mike Faist in “West Side Story”, and Richard Jenkins and Jayne Houdyshell in “The Humans”. More than I thought I’d list!
I also loved Carey in “Promising Young Woman” (peoples say last year was a weak year and I totally get it, but I feel like most of the things nominated were more my speed so I loved it). What a tough year in the Best Actress category!
A smattering of my favorite performances this year: Rachel Sennot in “Shiva Baby”, Tessa Thompson and Ruth Negga in “Passing”, Agathe Rousselle and Vincent Lindon in “Titane”, Morfydd Clark and Jennifer Ehle in “Saint Maud”, Niamh Algar in “Censor”, Cumberbatch, Dunst, and Smit McPhee in “Power of the Dog”, Patti Harrison in “Together”, Simon Rex and Bree Elrod in “Red Rocket”, Jim Cummings in “The Beta Test”, Andrew Garfield in “Tick, Tick…BOOM!”, Nina Arianda, Alia Shawkat, and Tony Hale in “Being the Ricardos”, Ariana DeBose, Rita Moreno, and Mike Faist in “West Side Story”, and Richard Jenkins and Jayne Houdyshell in “The Humans”. More than I thought I’d list!
Just to toss in here, though I have nothing to say that exceeds what you say. But I repeat my own simple sentence as I thought about McDormand’s performance in Nomadland: she’s in every scene and she’s excellent in every scene. That kind of straightforward acting can look simple, but you have to notice that she fills up every moment she’s onscreen, all across the image. You can’t stop watching her.
There’s nothing you can ask of her and the character that she doesn’t give right on screen where you can see it. She’s arrestingly present for what are mostly very low-key scenes. The director can only set up the mood and the moment. The actor has to make it feel true. And I didn’t see a single false note McDormand struck. She unquestionably deserved her win.
I’m one of the love it crowd ! As for Cotillard i’ll never forgive Harvey Weinstein for destroying The Immigrant and her chances for a second Oscar because James Gray would not bend the knee and kiss the ring of Pope Harvey the First !
I walked out after about twenty minutes. I don’t think Carax is on a wavelength that I can appreciate.
The pattern of the season (Picture and Director split) continues. Again, Campion wins, but her film doesn’t. I can’t remember a split like this since 2013, the year of Gravity V 22 Years a Slave. But it’s weird because Gravity felt light, but the direction was quite obvious. And it was was up a very heavy film. The problem is that The Power of the Dog is not like Gravity and it isn’t up against a film like 12 Years a Slave. So, what is going on? They love the direction, but not the film, at least not enough to give it Best Film. Very peculiar. The alarm bells should be ringing for The power of the Dog’s Best Picture chances. At the moment, the only thing that will change my mind in having Belfast as default BP is it misses a big stat at the Oscars. I can’t see it missing anything. It could miss editing, maybe. Director is a possibility as there could be one or surprises. A foreign film or Coens, could easily knock out the presumed five in Best Director.
John, please reread. The film won best Picture & Director !
And the film is now at 11 best picture wins, the most by far.
It’s a fallacy that it can’t win best Picture.
Did it? My bad. But the point still stands. There’s too many splits this season for no apparent reason.
The point doesn’t stand, you said Florida split as evidence of the splits when it didn’t split.
Regardless the film is leading in picture wins it’s just that the Campion wins are off the scale. She’s stronger for Director than the film is for Picture for sure, but that doesn’t mean it can’t win Picture.
The main point is the frequent splits this season, not Florida itself because that’s only a small point. No one is arguing it isn’t doing better than everyone in phase. However, when a film shows weaknesses, you have to pay attention because that might be why it ultimately doesn’t win Best Picture. There clues are there. And Belfast might not be winning, but it’s doing a lot better than I certainly thought at this stage of Oscar race.
I think Campion has won 18 and the film 11. I’m not sure what the usual splits are but it’s not splitting over 60% of the time.
I agree that the film is vulnerable. Belfast started the critics run better than I expected for sure, but it’s really stalled lately.
The pref ballot will kill it , same with Belfast, leaving WSS to win by default
The Art Direction/Production Design winner/runner-up are my kind of winners.
See, LA? Florida, of all places, got it right.
Worth Noting West Side Story third place placing is strong sign that the heavyweight big screen movie flying the flag on behalf of common sense at awards season and other big studios ..that are bein DEMOLISHED by the sociologist leftist majors corrupted awards season from twitter and social media and leeched into the concousncess of critics groups here..but West Side Story is ‘third place’ if that happens on the pref balance when time comes ballot as Sasha has said ‘ least divisive third placed film can get benefit over first nominted’ . so TPOTD unless it no.1 across the board of ballots (unlikely) mean the less divisive could be the big winner..
I still feel should be a split year could well be.. SHOULD BE AT VERY LEAST BE acceptable awards season amongst silent majority those thgat tuned out of awards season spectacularly and shockingly for globes/ bafta/ oscar..
The public perception of this race used to rate a mention in december…that does not happen in my country until AFTER nominations..like a week AFTER nominations are annoucned in Australia i can assure you that bveen the anti- hollywood trend for a decade now since oscar turned socialist lefty madness coincidence? i think not…
There is much less of an anti-Hollywood trend in Australia compared to America. We are a much more godless country than the US is. Sure, the African-American cinema subset historically doesn’t get as much play here as we tend to be more Asian and indigenous and have our own cinema. But we don’t have as much a proportion of the crazies, despite the Trump-era hegemonic exports. Please don’t speak for Australians, as you do not represent us. Given the AACTAs and AACTA Internationals are early in the race the critical acclaimed films do get some December focus. We haven’t really televised the Globes for about a decade now, but the Oscars still have some cache and the press cheers on the locals as they have been for decades.
Locals NOT overall of awards season as u well aware. It is true that takes lot longer post globes win for aust public and press to care unlike 10 yrs ago factvis press engaged with race sooner I agree with u never suggested 0 care whatsoever but returns for awards season tuning in r diminishing no doubt bout that sadly
*cachet
I think you may have discovered a plausible path for a WSS Oscar BP win.
Not bad assessment for u part mate ironic given u name sake is ” creeping doubt ” but I still think unlikely I think everyone sadly smell the stench in direction wind is blowing in awards season I Inclined to call it ” the big screen film killing season” sure big screen movies get nominated but even though parasite was acceptable that year considerably by margin it was Joker lead way followed by 1917 2 big screen hits and yet notably lesser light won ( note I say lesser but parasite had fair share success just not of sane quality scope of appeal as 1917 and Joker. Killing season cos big screen best pic nominated films are just used by awards season for show but they hardly ever win ey?
That’s very likely what will happen as WSS has a big advantage over Dawg and Belfast insomuch it appeals to an older crowd, exactly the type who are the majority of oscar voters
They are writing WSS off due to its poor BO and yet how well did Belfast / Dawg do ? Neither of those are populist or crowd pleasers ; how well did Nomadland do at the BO ?
I think you’re correct about the age of AMPAS voters and the misreading of the BO numbers for WSS. And maybe AMPAS when voting doesn’t necessarily take BO all that seriously into account. Let’s hope it doesn’t. Because Spidey and Matrix and who knows what else are driving WSS out of theaters. So it won’t have a chance to do much BO business.
And streaming for the movie is a ways off, since Spielberg got the 45-day theater-only deal that he wanted. How could he know that shortly after his movie opened theaters simply wouldn’t be available to show it? So WSS will need streaming’s word-of-mouth enthusiasm, and how much of that can it generate before AMPAS nominates and votes? So it faces an uphill climb, it seems to me.
Green Book was ripped apart on social media and certain news outlets in a similar way. But regular audiences loved it. And it beat out, wait for it, a Netflix critics darling that was much less liked by regular audiences. I don’t have a dog in the fight and wasn’t a Green Book person myself, but…Hmmm….
Bingo. I think you’re pinpointing the WSS vibe that could, though I’m not at all sure that it will, build over the holidays and on into the new year. Fwiw, WSS has 94% Audience approval on RT. If you read some of those audience reviews, you find that ordinary people aren’t just enjoying the movie, many sound as though they quite delightedly respect it. I think the “not many people actually hate it” notion may be coming more decisively into play. Also, 93% Critics approval on RT doesn’t hurt.
Most people are skeptical of a remake and yet when they actually see it are huigely impressed ; regardless of the BO , when the voters watch it on their screeners they’ll be impressed, especially as it appeals to the older voters that make up the academy
I fervently hope you’re right.
Treatment of one of only 2 or 3 unforgettable best pic winner in last 15 years post ROTK era Gree book treat.rnt was disgrace it also showcased supreme hypocrisy by very left online haters who bullied Oscar with ‘# Oscars so white ‘ campaign . Hypocrits radicL far left weakness is they won’t embrace really clever adaptation s balance out conservative setting eirh changing ideas in entertaining in green books case true story!
That’s correct, WSS can win by dafault as the least devisive and most accessable of the three frontrunners in a BP/ BD split ..moreover, it appeals to an older audience that are typical oscar voters
So I “finally” saw The Power of the Dog. I have a question. What is about it that is so “divisive”?
I can understand that it can be a let down for some, given the slow burn (and the hype), but to me “divisive” means when there’s something about a movie that gnaw or turn off the audience. I.e., Roma’s long 3 hour slog, McDormand pooping in a bucket, 12 Years a Slave brutal violence, La La Land’s jazz mansplaining…
What in TPOTD is unpleasant for some of the viewers? I was anticipating for it, but it never came for me.
It’s not divisive but the “audience-friendly/crowd-pleasing” narrative is being used against it, as expected.
It’s not going to please the masses- it’s a Jane Campion film of a Thomas Savage novel!!- but plenty of other winners like Nomadland, Moonlight & Shape of Water are not for the masses either.
And it was runner up at TIFF, won the Telluride poll & #1 on Netflix- it has enough audience love.
Ok. But not being “audience pleasing” isn’t divisive to me. Plenty of non audience pleasing movies win the BP. So this oft-mention strike against it seems odd to me.
You’re spot on. The two things are being conflated to argue it can’t win a preferential ballot. They are not the same thing!
I’m getting flashbacks to the endless arguments here about why Birdman was too divisive to win BP…
I think ppl say that TPOTD is divisive comparing to its competitors? If so, it’s overstated.
Well… no! a film that has DIVISIVE THEMES is divisive surely you know this!! Power of the Dog is a decidedly awfully negative themed film with a very perverted attitude to love. Many have rightfully beyond twittersphere slammed Campion for doing ‘anti-demonising of the male species’ type films and this is ‘more of the same’ this criticism comes from pple i know and of very few more rational non- politically motivated pro- leftist film reviews..and no! contrary to any assumption i have very VERY diverse circle of friends..so really..honestly? TPOTD is a film that slow burn or not, big release or not..not designed for the masses? is catering to very VERY targeted minority who believe oscar should not blink twice for another year and i have feeling TPOTD by NO MEANS has it all in the bag.
Will Smith is owed a ‘i owe you’ unless did he win for ALI? so watch this space…also the ‘race factor’ that oscar left themselves so exposed to from ‘oscars so white’ more noble of 2 big movements shaped oscar narrow path to so called ‘reform’ (assuming reform of an insitution is stacking awards season with excess favouritism again and again and again year upon year upon fukin year! with sociological message nauseating themed dominated films THAT ARE INACCESSIBLE TO EVEN the core film going demographic that cares about awards season ..
Nomadland was INACCESSIBLE, TPOTD AND BELFAST ARE INACCESSIBLE THIS IS GETITNG LUDICROUS! TIME FOR AWARDS SEASON TO WAKE UP AND IGNORE THE CRITICS GROUPS COS MOST OF THEM FRANKLY HAVE BEEN HIJACKED BY THE AGRIEVED ANTI- TRUMP mentality- the fear of Trump and hence..the frustrated at Biden’s performance…how awards season conducted themselves since Obama terms finished and since his election has been a complete AN UTTER DISGRACE!!
I lost count just how many publicly moderate successful and accepted embraced oscar contenders by big studios through audiences and critics alike have been snubbed in last decade at LEAST!
So i baffled in how Power of Dog is not only divisive as. but is also NOT being pushed to level of some other contenders incinemas this issue going beyond the excuse used to be legit ‘ but small time studio independent of big studios..that just BULLSHIT!! after all TPOTD HAS HOLLYWOOD STARS IN IT ON BIG BUCKS U TELLIN ME THAT FOR ALL THAT IT NOT EVEN A PART HIT AT BOX OFFICE? SPARE me anyone making that excuse for tat film!
Did ‘Fern’ taking a dump in a bucket in her campervan, render the entire movie ‘divisive’? I hadn’t heard that being referred to that way.
Ask Sasha.
You mentioned it.
She kept mentioning it. You haven’t paid much attention then. Nomadland is depressing (for a lot people) and that scene was one of the culprit moments. Sasha is not the only one who has mentioned it. I didn’t say that Nomadland was divisive just for that scene, but some movies contain a certain element that just “too much” for some people to come away feeling fond of it. I just didn’t get any moment like that in TPOTD.
Thanks for being snippy as a way to prosecute an argument! You singled out aspects of those movies as rendering them divisive, and I was questioning that; especially the Nomadland reference which was pretty bizarre as a reason for people not to like an entire movie. And no, I don’t recall it being mentioned a lot here, as that would not be something i would read as being especially germane to evaluating the value of the movie.
If she pulled the head off a chicken and cooked it up for dinner, maybe!
Pulling a head off a chicken! finaly something about Nightmare Alley !
I don’t have an argument. I had a question. And I don’t want to relitigate Nomadland. I liked that movie and rooted for it to win. You’re the one who got snippy. Have a nice day. 🙂
“She kept mentioning it. You haven’t paid much attention then.” that’s snippy 🙂
And Roma being long doesn’t make it divisive. Based on the few examples you mentioned, EVERY movie can be found divisive if there is a single objection that anybody has for anything featured in it!
I am not saying these things as my personal opinion, but just reiterating of the consensus that I’ve read.
Starting out here, I love it, it is in my top 5 of the year so far. I think it is the mass appeal thing – it isn’t divisive in the sense the people will turn it off after half an hour (see Titane, also a film I really liked) but it isn’t a mass appeal crowd-pleaser, it is a slow burn that many people won’t get on their first watch so many people will put it low on their ballots. This is why it may not do well on a preferential ballot… Contrast that with even Nomadland or Moonlight which are also slow burns but relatively simple at first glance (even if they are more complex below the surface) so those that don’t put the work in probably would probably get them on a first watch, which they won’t with Power of the Dog (same issue as Roma).
Makes sense. Maybe the word “divisive” is overused w/ regards to Dog. I mean, Nomadland and ML are more of an excruciating viewing experience.
I was wondering if Dog’s ending is too frustrating for some viewers? Like what just happened? What the hell is this movie about? 🙂
Yeah like even to me I find it a bit baffling because at least the basics of the ending are pretty clear if you are paying attention but it seems like that isn’t the case for a lot of people! It is also a film that gets even better upon rewatches and most Oscar voters don’t have time to watch films multiple times
For the general audience, maybe. But we’re talking AMPAS voters here. They are professional filmmakers who have practiced their arts for a long time. Even if they don’t get the ending, surely they would appreciate what they’ve seen before which no one can deny that it’s painstakingly well done.
And if so, wouldn’t they revisit it? It’s pretty watchable.
Unless the movie’s theme turns off some people. The anti-hyped masculinity? And would homophobia play a part in this dismissal of the movie?
My question, too. Otherwise, I don’t understand how the issue is being raised.
I’m not sure how many of those are still around to make a difference. And Dog isn’t as explicit as BBM. But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. I’m just wondering if the purported divisiveness of Dog comes from people who don’t feel comfortable watching a movie that is perceived as anti-hyped masculinity. That if you’re uncomfortable with a femininity it means that you’recloseted . That’s a very reductive take, but you know how easily triggered people can be.
Other than that, I just can’t detect what is it about Dog, and its viewing experience, to be off-putting.
Um, you would think that and you are probably right when it comes to screenwriters and directors but the issue is the actors and the craftspeople who really dominate the academy… Maybe I am wrong, I would like nothing more right now than for Power of the Dog to win best picture (though I haven’t seen belfast/ WSS/ King Richard/ Licorice Pizza, we always get films later here in New Zealand) but I just base all of this on the history of how the Oscars have traditionally voted and they have traditionally showed themselves to appreciate this sort of thing a lot less than critics… Of course it is still a top tier contender and could win a bunch on non preferential ballots, I’m just not convinced of picture on a preferential ballot.
I’m not sure on that aspect of it that you mentioned at the end. The fact that a couple of films won BP (one great, one very maligned) in the past decade that dealt with this (being vague to avoid spoilers) kinda indicates to me that it isn’t the issue it once was.
Actors might be focused on movies with lots of acting, but I think the tech people aren’t unsophisticated. They are also artists who dedicated themselves to a very competitive and difficult industry. I’m sure plenty have studied film before settling into their fields. They know the importance of writing and directing as contributive factors to a good film. They are not electricians and plumbers. 🙂
I’m curious to your takes on the other contenders once you’ve seen them as comparison to Dog.
Of course, and many in every branch will love it, I’m not saying any of this based on my views of the professions but of what has typically done well at the Oscars on the preferential ballot and I’m not really convinced that potd is it… But I’d be very happy to be wrong
Excruciating?
I don’t mean it as a negative. Excruciating pain or discomfort from what is displaying on screen.
Well putting aside the bull castration scene which for me ranks right up there with McDormand taking a dump in a bucket ,Ccnsidering all the uproar about the Buffalo Bill character in Silence of the Lambs I’ve been somewhat surprised there hasn’t been some reaction from the LGBTQ community over both Cumberbatch’s obiviously closeted gay psychopath and Kodi Smit -Mc
McPhee ‘s grossly effeminate wannabe Norman Bates character !
Because it’s set on a ranch in 1925? Context.
As for the castration, unless it bothered some on a subliminal level, it wasn’t that graphically depicted.
I just thought it was dumb as was McDormand and the bucket !
You seem a bit fixated. And traumatized.
Maybe the LGBTQ community is intelligent enough to realize that one crazy closet case in one movie isn’t meant to represent the entire community. Also you talk more about castration than a mohel
I just don’t like dumb scenes like MsDormand and the Bucket ! But don’t mind me one of my all time favorite films is Ken Russell’s masterpiece The Devils !
Everybody poops.
lol
McPhee’s grossly effeminate wannabe Norman Bates character !
AMPAS postpones 1/15 Governors Awards; no backup date announced.
We haven’t learned a goddamn thing from COVID, have we?
I think variants find a way of spreading regardless of carefully-laid plans
Maybe the ACAEDEMY SHOULD DO THE Honarary AWARDS ON THE SHOW AGAIN LIKE THEY USED TO
TPOTD sweeps Florida with 5- Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor and Cinematography!
Mass wins Ensemble, Driver Actor, Haim Actress. Dune 3 techs.
I know the end of this movie; Dune gets screwed big time in above the line categories, arthouse film wins BP again. Folks on here say don’t worry, Dune will rule the roost at the 2024 ceremony if the conclusion is as good/better than part 1.
Then another arthouse movie becomes the darling of critics at the end of 2023, and ultimately Oscar gives it BP and not Dune 2. The Academy’s bias against sci-fi films continues unabated, which will be only a year after Avatar 2 gets hosed by some indie flick (A2 has a 12/15/22 release date), if it turns out to be as mind bogglingly game-changing as the original was 12 years ago.
I SO hope I’m proven wrong about 2024.
You will still have the people’s choice, don’t worry.
Remember LOTR got showered after part 3, I wouldn’t count out Dune part 2 doing very well.
Here’s the difficulty with this argument though- many of us want AMPAS to choose quality & many of us think that the critics v general public choices ARE better quality picks.
Sad but true…
I’m kinda surprised to see Cumberbatch in 1 here… Yes, he has been winning critics awards left right and centre but we always knew that would happen. I still think Will Smith is Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour. I was saying that before critics prizes started being given out so the fact that things are going pretty much as expected for him in this phase doesn’t make him seem any less likely than he did earlier in the season. Now if he loses Globes/ CCA/ SAG I will readjust but for now we are pretty much following the expected trajectory
The difference is that Oldman had less threatening competition and was more overdue and playing a more iconic figure. Smith has a harder road which is what we’ve been picking up on.
But I kinda feel like all of that was true then too… Oldman had a clear critical favourite sweeper (even if he was a relative newcomer) that he was going up against. Will Smith is playing a relatively iconic figure and even if he isn’t as iconic as Churchill his daughters are probably as well known as Churchill. Also Smith is very overdue… Also the movie is slightly better reviewed than Darkest How was… So yeah I still have him winning and don’t see why the critics awards would’ve changed that since what happened is exactly what everyone was expecting
In saying this, I haven’t seen King Richard but I love power of the dog/ Cumberbatch in it so would be very happy to be wrong!
Smith is only overdue in a cynical-industry-Sandra Bullock sense. He has never elevated the art of acting with his work and has never given the “best” performance of any year. I still shake my head at his two prior nominations.
But even if it is just a cynical-industry-Sandra Bullock sense, Bullock still won for that reason and this is still that cynical industry even with the extra diversification of the academy (which can only really help here since we are talking about Will Smith). Don’t get me wrong, I am not arguing that I want Will Smith to win, I love Cumberbatch’s performance and haven’t seen that film yet but the academy is still what it is…
If (when) he’s nominated, I hope Garfield or Cumberbatch kicks his ass. Or, in a more cynical-industry-OscarsSoWhite scenario, let Denzel be the one to snatch it—again. (Forest Whitaker isn’t available this season.)
I really can’t talk to hoping he loses but I must say Cumberbatch and Garfield are both fantastic and I’d be stoked with either winning
I’ve seen all five leading contenders and as unenthusiastic as I am about Smith, I’d prefer him over Dinklage. So you can imagine what I thought of Cyrano.
How does Sasha not include MacBeth for Cinematography? I have it winning. Also, it has actually lived up from a 98% to a 99% on Rottentomatoes.
Macbeth is definitely listed on cinematography
In other news, it’s Matrix Day! I was never even a huge fan 20 years ago, but, weirdly, I’m excited.
Ctitics Choice Awards postponed. No rescheduled date announced. Feel like a broken record today 🙁
Finally, Belfast and Smith slip!
Belfast winning still feels quite off. Small scale movie, too personal that could be restrictive sometimes (a big reason why I think Roma didn’t win and Mank lost steam) and no social subject matter. Most importantly: I don’t see a path. Balfe isn’t winning. There are two other actors with more passion than Hinds in his category. No Director for Branagh. Licorice Pizza will give it s hard time in Screenplay.
Just the fact of West Side Story being a musical (and a remake) already makes it hard to do well at the preferential ballot. A lot of people can’t stand musicals.
Really don’t know.
All 3 top contenders have vulnerabilities. Makes this year a bit more interesting I think.
The least flawed usually wins
The guild will help. I expect POTD, WSS, and Belfast to do quite well with the Guilds, which is why they remain my top three.
You’re wrong on the Dawg as those blue collar folks in the guilds will not go for pretentious and boring movie like that ; they’ll much prefer a crowd pleaser like WSS
La La Land almost won only a few years ago , so whadya talking about ?
Well, it didn’t. This is what I’m talking about.
It wasn’t because of it being a musical, however. AMPAS seems to have way less problems with musicals than with other genre movies (and perhaps even comedies).
OOO BY THE way i SEEING DUNE AT LAST!! on Sunday a direct snub to overbloated Spiderman i still insist in context of the MCU is that this Spiderman should have been LEAST 2 films away be released in mcu phase 5 cannon rathjer than the current one out. But with DUNE a film that been COMPLETELY undermined by awards season (we know it getting nominated is being used exploited not respected by awards season to try to suck in awards season viewers into oscar say ‘look we have boigscreen studio nominated film but guess what? fooled you it wont win!’ – EXACTLY what happened for too many years in oscars outcomes in last several..
But with Dune ever since i played the video game- dont forget inspired by Frank Herberts acclaimed novel…was a game..but it also was a movie before Villenue enhancement and i sure to be incredible revision of the original movie expanding on it mythology making it into far deeper, vaster, richer epic…when i saw the original movie even for it time..while acknowledging visual effects films was challenging itself profoundly, in those days..the reality is the script and dialogue could been less campy and other than Kyle Mclachlan as Paul Atreides, the performances lacked conviction…
But this DUNE looks like fulfilling my hopes for a modernised more expansive and serious drama/ visually stunning epic retelling of the prior film and tapping into more deeper mythology of the books.
I think there a chance one of cinema’s greatest music composers on par with John Williams for ingenuity still leading the way decades on in the great Hans Simmer , the fact f the matter is this from trailers and little bit reviews i read..this DUNE being a duology is ONE film that for me has potential to knock off best fi;lm this year in my eyes..which is ‘No Time to Die’..closely followed by “The Last Duel” but if there one film that could beat the lot it ‘DUNE’.
arguably had potential be a trilogy given vast nature and scope magnitude of cross galactic conflict between 3 houses from 3 planets..sooo..but could 2nd part of the duology be the long overdue breakthrough for the sci-= fi genre next year or when pt II is released? desrves to be i say that with confidence evne in unlikely event this DUNE epic will fall bit below my hopes i doubt that very much.
It legit question why the hell is awards seaosn beating down on Villenue’s Dune? being treated this awards season more as a contender ‘filler’ than a being taken seriously as it deserves..
I think many people (myself included) aren’t taking Dune seriously as a winner precisely because it is a part 1 and is pretty unsatisfying when standing alone. Once the second comes out, if it works, it should retroactively make the first film better as it will complete the narrative ideas and that will be the time to give it a best picture win… If it does come together. In the meantime the nomination is kinda saying “the first part was a great start, now see if you can complete it before we actually give you the award”
Yea. Not winning (as a big fan, myself). But I do hope it has a good nomination showing. And if the 2nd is good, maybe gets a LOTR type situation on the sequel.
I actually think a lotr style big winning night is very likely if the second pulls it off!
Ariana is winning.
Which would make her the 3rd actor to win an Oscar playing a character that the previous portrayer won an Oscar for, after Robert De Niro and Joaquin Phoenix
And deservedly. Maybe not my number one, even out of the candidates, but it’s a damn great performance.
I recently moved her to my #1 spot. Hard to deny she is the frontrunner at the moment.
Spiderman NWH update: $31.4m on Tuesday, now at $328.7m 2nd best 5-day domestic earn ever and highest December 5-day gross of all time. $751.3m globally.
I watched ‘Being The Ricardos’ today – really enjoyed it. I am not a huge Kidman fan, but think this was her best work since ‘Rabbit Hole’. Loved the ensemble, the witty script and the various narrative threads. A bit clunky at times, but Kidman and Bardem channeled the spirit and qualities of their infamous people they played. I think J.K Simmons ‘William Frawley’ was a lot nicer than the version reported anecdotally by those close to the show. Loved Nina Arianda.
It didn’t tell me a lot more than I either knew or assumed about the couple, but especially Kidman, dug deep and gave some great insight through her banter and her timing, as to the greatness that was Lucille Ball. I much prefer a ‘biopic’ like this, which focused on a week (like My Week With Marilyn) and ‘Judy’ than try to cover many decades or chapters of a famous person’s life. There was still a lot of ground covered in Being The Ricardos.
I watched it yesterday…I mostly enjoyed the film but felt like I wanted more. I’m a sucker for those BIG explosive emotion moments…I expected some more of that. I definitely think Kidman is worthy of a nomination here, but I don’t know if it would be a winnable performance. I was really hoping for more.
I may need to reevaluate my predictions.
I admittedly love these ‘peek behind the curtain’ styled narratives; even if Sorkin took liberties with the timeline and facts. It was smart, stylish and at times acerbic which fit well for a larger than life pair such as Ball and Arnaz. The pointed differences between Ball and ‘Lucy’ was great, and I thought Kidman worked harder than I had seen her work – well, ever!
I haven’t seen enough of the contenders to predict who prevails – Kidman whilst a co-lead dominates the film for me, so it is possible for her to win – playing an icon, physical transformation, 20 years since her first Oscar etc etc (narrative spin). I suspect (sigh unseen) that Kristen Stewart takes it, but before SAG and BAFTA, that is probably a premature tip….
Funny the most powerful scenes for me were the quiet ones – one on one’s between Kidman and Bardem, or Kidman and Arianda. Tony Hale had some great moments too. I know what you mean by those big moments – and they do lend themselves to wooing the Oscar 🙂
So, The Power of the Dog is top for EVERYTHING – except best picture. Does anyone else see a problem here? I mean how does that actually make sense?
I think many members of the Oscar Squad are considering the preferential ballot in this case. The other categories don’t offer that kind of voting, but to win Best Picture, a film typically can’t be divisive. But, right now, it’s a very close second place. It would be my personal choice for Best Picture though.
It is only a matter of time with the preferential ballot until we get a film win 10 Oscars then miss picture!
I doubt it will happen that way. It would be a pretty boring year if TPOTD swept everything
Considering itis way overrated i hope you’re right!
If it is that strong overall, it wins Picture even on the preferential ballot. Passion plus respect for the filmmaking. I’m not saying it wins them all, I’m saying if it’s that strong across the board, it will hard to see it losing
One word: GRAVITY.
Where is IN THE HEIGHTS?
Off the radar. West Side Story sucked up all its air.
West Side Story, tick… tick… Boom!, and Cyrano are all ahead of In the Heights from the way I see it. I doubt four musicals get in.
Clarence, in your lede don’t you mean “calendar year 2021”?
Like many of us, I think he is wishing and willing the dreadful 2021 banished and forgotten 🙁
I wish it were that profound. Simple mistake. Thanks for pointing it out though!