I think we convince ourselves that the race will go the way we think it will. At least I do. There are years where it seems wide open, like 2015 when the Big Short won the PGA, The Revenant won the DGA, and Spotlight won the SAG then went on to win Best Picture with only one other Oscar, Original Screenplay.
Last year, however, was truly one of the hardest to endure. We knew the winner at the outset. There was no other movie that could challenge Nomadland. It was partly the movie and partly the idea of the movie winning. Take your pick: both are strong motivators to bring in a winner.
This year is different, though. It isn’t a year, necessarily, where history will be made — or doesn’t appear to be. That can be a very strong motivator like “First International Feature to win” or “First Film by a Woman of Color.” This year, the movies that could win seem to be down to the same three they’ve been for a while:
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
King Richard
West Side Story
Film Twitter would love for Licorice Pizza to have a shot, and Paul Thomas Anderson is going to win some year — but probably not this year, although one never knows. Never say never. I had the idea of trying to pigeonhole the race by limiting our picks of what we think might win.
Let’s travel over to Gold Derby to see if anyone has any other movies but those mentioned above winning.
Dune
Kevin Polowy
Keith Simanton
Tim Grey
Otherwise, it goes like this:
Power of the Dog
Joyce Eng
Christopher Rosen
Matthew Jacobs
Michael Musto
Perri Nemiroff
Thelma Adams
Anne Thompson
Nikki Novak
Susan King
Andrea Mandel
Susan Wloszczyna
Wilson Morales
Alicia Malone
Belfast
Yours Truly
Tariq Kahn
Jazz Tangcay
Peter Travers
Dave Karger
Clayton Davis
Eric Deggans
West Side Story
Tom O’Neil
Brian Truitt
Erik Davis
King Richard
Shawn Edwards
First off, there is no reason to lock down behind one choice right now. It is better for the Oscar race to have things a little more fluid. But just for the hell of it, let’s look at a few stats we use.
The Golden Globes Screenplay Stat — the only films that win have to have a Globes screenplay nomination.
And those are:
Licorice Pizza
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Don’t Look Up
Being the Ricardos
You have to go back to 2004 when Clint Eastwood and Million Dollar Baby missed Screenplay and won Best Picture. Heck, even The Artist had a Globes screenplay nod. So this seems to indicate West Side Story might not make it all the way. But if, say, Steven Spielberg won Best Director at the Globes like Clint did that year, who knows.
Second thing is the divisive nature of a film based on the audience score at RT. Critics seem to matter less these days because they reflect a hive mind that kind of, sort of agrees with itself. We know what the critically acclaimed films were. The reason this matters is that The Power of the Dog has a low audience score. Its other hurdle is being a Netflix movie. Can this be the first Best Picture winner for a streaming service? It’s going to happen eventually. We just don’t know when.
Audience scores (90+ in bold):
Nomadland – 82 with 500 ratings
Parasite – 90 with 5,000 ratings
Green Book – 91 with 10,000 ratings
The Shape of Water – 72 with 25,000 ratings
Moonlight – 79 with 25,000 ratings
Spotlight – 93 with 50,000 ratings
Birdman – 78 with 50,000 ratings
12 Years a Slave – 90 with 100,000 ratings
Argo – 90 with 100,000 ratings
The Artist – 87 with 50,000
The King’s Speech – 92 with 100,000 ratings
The Hurt Locker – 84 with 50,000 ratings
Slumdog Millionaire – 90 with 250,000 ratings
So let’s look at how our contenders are faring now.
Belfast – 91 with 500 ratings
Power of the Dog – 61 with 1,000 ratings
King Richard – 98 with 1,000 ratings
West Side Story – 94 with 1,000 ratings
None of them are going to beat Spider-Man: No Way Home, which astonishingly, is 99 with 25,000 ratings.
What are some of the others?
Dune – 90 with 5,000 ratings
Being the Ricardos – 73 with 100 ratings
House of Gucci – 83 with 2,500 ratings
CODA – 93 with 500 ratings
Licorice Pizza – 90 with 100 ratings
Don’t Look Up – 77 with 100 ratings
I don’t understand why the rating for Power of the Dog is so low. I have seen plenty of great great movies come in with low audience ratings but in general they are not Best Picture winners. It doesn’t have an impact on Best Director.
Roma – 72 with 5,000 ratings
The Revenant – 84 with 100,000 ratings
Life of Pi – 84 with 100,000 ratings
La La Land – 81 with 50,000 ratings
They have less than the Best Picture winners. The reason is the preferential ballot is a strange animal. It also comes down to a large consensus vote of 9,000 people. To me, The Power of the Dog looks like a Best Director winner and looks like a movie that, like La La land, people loved it or they didn’t. There is no in between on that one. The rub is that to make a really great movie you often have to disturb people. 2001: A Space Odyssey I feel sure would not have won on a preferential ballot and we know Citizen Kane did not. It has nothing to do with quality — it just means it takes people time to catch up with it. Most of my favorite movies are movies that are divisive and can’t score high on an audience rating. But most of my favorite movies aren’t going to win Best Picture on a preferential ballot either.
Maybe it means something, maybe it doesn’t. We’re not into the thick of the season yet where we get most of our stats. We need to hear from the Globes then from the Producers, the Directors, and the Actors. Which of the PGA, DGA, and SAG will Power of the Dog win? All of them? DGA?
The other question is that Drive My Car won Best Picture with both the LAFCA and the NYFCC. With the lone exception of Leaving Las Vegas, every film that won both of those was nominated for Best Picture. I am not sure it will work that way this year because the movie itself is fairly challenging, I’d say. Lovely, moving, but challenging. If you’re working with ten nominees, I would imagine, the Academy is going to want to go bigger, not more niche. But who knows. It’s early yet.
On January 12th, we’ll get a look at our Screen Actors Guild nominees. The BAFTA longlist also drops that day, although that is equity-based, meaning half have to come from women and have from men in the Best Director category.
Finally, WAY WAY WAY at the end of January on the 27th, Oscar voting begins, and the Directors, the Writers, and Producers Guild all announce on the same freaking day, not to mention costume designers. Like what? That’s what it says over at AwardsWatch’s calendar:
Because we have an extra month before voting starts, and final voting doesn’t end until February 22, we know that things can change, buzz can shift. We don’t know where we will be by then. We do know that it’s either a Slumdog Millionaire/The Artist kind of year or it’s a Spotlight/Moonlight/Parasite kind of year. We have a ways to go yet. Let’s hope we can keep things interesting in the meantime.
I’ve still yet to see WSS or Licorice Pizza (COVID concerns) but remain convinced that it’s between Belfast and Power of the Dog and likely a BP/director split. In other news, Don’t Look Up is a boring mess, and I enjoyed The Big Short immensely.
Just on Zendaya not just her role I Dune fill in big shoes of Sean Youngs alluring and leadership quality type performance but I like know how casting of Zedanya which is totally at odds with Spiderman’s MJ comics. MJ IS A REDHEAD NOT BOUT JUST LOOKS ZEDANYA SOOO NOT DESCRIPTIVE REFLECTION NOR TRUE TO EVEN SPIDERMAN MCU COMICS NO I DONT THINK ANYONE SHOULD REGARD THE LATEST NEW MILLENIAL ADAPTATION OF MJ IN LATEST COMICS OF SPIDERMAN WHICH WHY ZEDANYA WAS BROUGHT IN AS ACCURATE OR TRUE AT ALL TO MORE WIDELT KNOWN MJ. As articulated from original Spiderman movie , MJ was rightfully the ‘ girl next door’ ala curvy red head no not what I prefer it what is true to overall spiderman COMICS. Zedanya is talented actress but bit like situation in DUNE frankly more so in latest spiderman more severely than in DUNE, Zedanya is a lightweight …so not girl next door so NOT TRUE to overall comic adaptation from Spiderman COMICS. Like Tom Holland they both like in cryo chamber preserve there mature lacking kid like nature in latest Spiderman movies no sense evolution in characters Feige shaping. This SPIDERMAN as a co- leader? And this version of MJ as prominent partner to co-leader of new avengers ? Gimme a break! MCU is headed to trainwreck unless at very least Holland Spidermsn is overlooked for more leadership worthy feige- construed character here idea CAPTAIN MARVEL CO LEADS WITH DR. STRANGE AND HULK ( who sorely need more attention needed another film in phase 4 pre- Endgame in mcu…
WHY THE RUSH FOR MCU TO BLOODY CATER JUST THE MILLENIALS? REGARDINH RECASTING OF ALRRADY ESTABLISHED PRIOR ACTORS ACTRESSES LIKE KIRSTEN DUNST AND LIKE TOBEY MCGUIRE EASILY BEST DUO OF SPIDERMAN AND MJ FRANKLY RAIMI SHOULD BEEN CALLED ON DIRECT MCU ADAPTED MOST RECENT SPIDERMSN MOVIE.
FEIGE HAS FALLEN INTO 5HE CREDIBILITY SAVRIFICING TRAP OF ABUSING HIS POWER INFLUENCE WITH HUGE SUCCESS HE EARNT IN PHASE1,2, 3 AND 4. TO PUT HIS BRANDING OVER DISCRETION OF INDEPENDENT THINKING OF FILMMAKERS LATELY IN START THIS CHSOTIC PHASE 5 BEGINNING , ( I GONNA DO REVIEW TO SHANG CHI WHICH ACTUSLLY SHOULD B OSCAR CONTENDER IT DEEP, COMPELLING AND AMAZING AND DEPTH NOT DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW SND CAST PERFECTLY UNLIKE SPIDERMSN LATEST OUTUNG , HALF THE ETERNALS CASTING AND STILL HARD SEE HOW IT CINNECTS BUT AWESOME VENOM LET THERE BE CARNAGE …( WHICH NEVERLESS AS I FEARED HURT IT CREDIBILITY DIDNT EVEN TRY IN ESRNEST TO INTERLINK DOMAMU SERVANT TO ‘ RECRUIT’ NEW SYMBIOTE TO MELD WITH CASSIDY )…FEIGE NEED YO TRUST INDIVIDUSL FILMMAKERS MORE LIKE HE DID IN ENDGSME LOOSEN HIS CONTROL IN PRODUCTIOB PROCESS EACH MCU FILM UPCOMING MAYBE THEN NEXT FUTURR SPIDERMSN MOVIE WILL HAVE MORE SUITED MATURE CASTING MORE REFLRCTIVE OF SPIDERMAN FROMM COMICS EY?
I also like to know how Tobey McGuire was not why not recast in the mcu spiderman ? His role unlike that pf Tom Holland WHY wasn’t McGuire, Dunst, Raimi as director of best spidermsn movies easily… approached by SONY..?
I could seen Spiderman last night but I no regrets despite some emphasise ONLY overall mild disappointment in DUNE ( I admit I need c it again see more whether my own mind be swayed on whether chsmalet and zedanya were right choice be cast in 5heir respective roles) that I CHOSE c DUNE over Spiderman No Way Home.
My BLUNT Warning to Feige and the mcu team is DONT ABANDON AS SIGNS ARE U MAY HAVE IN WAKE OF RETIRING CAPTAIN AMERICA AND KILLING OFF IRONMAN TONY STARK AS OF END OF ENDGAME … TRADITIONAL FANBASE OF CORE COMIC BOOKS SHAPE THE MCU… I willing to bet bit perspective here Spiderman No Way Home has not broken as many records as press make out cos inflation is not factored in. And has to be for purposes historic perspective and accelerated increase in ticket admission prices per ticket in pandemic , I point out been notable difference btw ticket prices when no time to die caMe out and Spiderman namely 5 month rime frame btw releases pandemic impact shifted putting more pressure on price increases round world. So NO sorry to say to Marvel this Spiderman not multi record breaker or biggest surprise box office smash of year globally therefore ‘no time to die’ still I’s moat successful more challenging btw 2 be most commercially successful of year.
For that reason NO TIME TO DIE ought be Oscar Contender talk NOT bloody latest gazillionth spiderman !!
OK FORGET THE FACT IT ONE OF THE FASTER ONES TO REACH BILLION DOLLARS THE REAL TEST THAT I PREDICT NO WAY HOME LATEST POSSIBLY OVERBLOATED MCU SPIDEY OVERKILL RELEASE THE REAL REAL TEST IS HOW IT HOLDOVERS WILL FARE IN FOLLOWING WEEKEND IF YOU ASK ME A -68% -68%!!!!! DROP OFF IS AS EPIC AS IT DEBUT CUME !! NAMELY DOWN TO 85 MILLION IN IT SECOND WEEKEND NOT EVEN AVENGERS ENDGAME IN IT 2ND WEEKEND DROPPED THAT MUCH IF I NOT MISTAKEN? THAT ONE BIGGEST 2ND WEEKEND FROM 1ST WEEKEND B.O. DROP OFFS FOR MCU IN A WHILE ISN’T IT? THAT DOES NOT SCREAM TO ME SUSTAINABLE RECORD BREAKNG SUCCESS FOR LENGTH OF SCREEN TIME OF THIS SPIDERMAN looks to me more like the SUGAR HIT and, given the US box office sets the trend for behavioural pattern of length of time of big blockbuster releaseses dont be surprised if the ‘ sugar hit’ effect impacts Spidey’s bx office drop off in other major markets forllowing the US.
AND I SAY THIS TOO..EVEN WHEN YOU HAVE MORE COMPETIION LIKE IN THE CURRENT BOX OFFICE OF OTHER QUALITY WIDE RELEASES IN CINEMAS IT DOES NOT EXCUSE IF FAR FROM HOME WAS TAILORED TO BE MORE THAN A SUGAR HIT POPCORN STYLE HIT AFFAIR DOES NOT EXCUSE 2ND WEEKEND US BO. DROP OFF OF – 68% IF FAR FROM HOME TRULY MAKE IMPACT BEYOND BOX OFFICE IT REWATCHABILITY WOULD OFFSET MINIMISE SCALE OF DROP OFF ENDGAME DID NOT DROP BY -68% REGARDLESS OF PANDEMIC SCALING IS ALREAYD CONSIDERED ENDGAME HAD COMPETITION OTHER QUALITY RELEASES IT DROP WAS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN SPIDERMANS 2ND WKEND DROP OFF IT ALL PROVES THIS SPIDERMAN SO NOT DEERVING BEING METIONED AS POSSIBLE OSCAR CONTENDER IF I WERE MCU I BE EMBARRASED BY SECOND WKEND DROP OFF. NO WAY HOME WILL BURN OUT WITHIN FEW WEEKS YOU WATCH!
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f0cba326ed22e24860be8483a5e951cfffbf2a8ab5e6fe659715f4e47bd72bc2.jpg
See that thing on your keyboard that says ‘caps lock’? Click it.
Lol I know right? Merry Xmas u mate not seen u round for while where u been? Lately?
Xmas Eve fell on Friday. Xmas eve tends to be very weak with many theaters closing early. This accounts for a big proportion of the weekend drop. Daily week-to-week drops:
Fri (Xmas Eve): -83.9% (also note opening day inflated with half a day of Thurs previews)
Sat (Xmas day): -57.3%
Sun: -48.3%
Well everyone i just saw Villenue’s DUNE .
And be prepared for a shock but I NOT ready to declare it a masterpiece…not until pt II is released.
With this in mind it a VISUAL masterpiece but it seems like on acting front with exception of 2 standout performances NOT inc Timothy charmalet .. yet( Jury out on ever youthful Timothy Charmalet until pt II comes out)…
And as far as balance of interplay between the characters esp within btw films main focus of house Atreides, air of looming anxiety, fears and doubts of emperor’s designs ..and uncertainty leaving their home planet. That I feel atm as pt I rolled on the spectacular vistas trumped some of important performances.
Notably Timothy Charmalet’s and Oscar Isaac’s.
It like relative to spectacular visual narrative both in pitstanding unforgettable vistas of sweeping landscapes and amazing scope of the cinematography..that much like everything in the path of a sandstorm these 2 performances get overshadowed on dramatic front by big music hybrid visual moments .
Pt I without question is awesome film… but I feel Villenue has forgotten when to magnify key dramatic moments … btw characters …and inconsistency in the battles.
But before that I will say it wonderful keen eye for design treat theDUNE legend from the book so authentically with setting and boy did villenue really maximise the central real character which was the planet DUNE. From rise of the Sandstorm spewingclouds of sand as it emerges from the ground , to air or e dust storms such one Paul Atreides and his mother use to escape. VILLENUE more rhan Lynch did irrespective if technology back at time of Lynch’s due integrated successfully DUNE as planet as part of the story a participant In Paul Atreides journey. I have NOT seen what could been even in non action moments a filmmaker exploit seemingly barren planet have seemingly so much happening. Whether action motion scene or overhead view of a harvester harvesting slice Villenue continues to show why his most unique and original experimental visual filmmaker of his generation.
BUT. Fact the landscapes cinematography so epic most memorable epics esp at run time of 2.hrs35 mins, establish considerably stronger drama in interplay btw the characters.
Consider. The hybrid bloodlines that the Emperor considers Paul ATreides a threat to their rule of and control of the Galaxy the corrupt Emperor controls ( good we yet ro meet him in sequel so far we only met senior servants Rebecca Ferguson’s character ‘s mother.
Clearly the Emperor is aggrieved at decision of Ferguson’s character to marry to one of warring houses over prized spice. On Arrakis .
Why else would the Emperor side with conspire with House Harkonnen?
And fact the relationship btw Paul’s Mum being of part Emperor imperial bloodline yet I’s very much in love committed to house atreides through Paul’s father (Oscar Isaac). Only reinforces importance for length of pt I to flesh out give deeper In sight in both weight if burdens of expectations of Atreides mums expectations on behalf of the Emperor while being torn btw Emperor’s preference to married her imperial bloodline rather rhan house Atreides. Furthermore 4hid relationship btw Paul’s mum and dad if we’re exploited far more both visual and in terms of Oscar Isaac’s performance , it go long way understanding length of time in film Paul ATreides is confused and conflicted .
With this in mind it a thene I feel that keeps ptI somewhat below being a masterpiece or in my view outright best film of the year( Def in top 5 not sure in top 3 of that 5 atm).. Villenue really needed devote more time on dynamics and inter race tensions Ferguson’s as Paul’s mum carries as a burden in relationship wirh Paul’s father… there should been an intense sex scene of passion and conviction btw Paul’s mum and his dad which would really had deeper resonance loss of paul Atreides father ltr in the film.
Blade Runner 2049 was new high water mark for Villenue he encapsulated that all important balance btw maximising key moments pivotal to defining revelations and journey of the blade runner ltr in movie and never lost site of importance of maximising a key moment earlier in film to really ram home yo audience deep response of what characters would confront challenges they face .
Given loss of Paul’s father was pivotal turning point (1) for Paul to step up start really lead way navigate forbidding desert of DUNE when he and his mum continue their escape… it compromised by there not being intense , major sex scene btw Paul’s parents ..that by timeFergusons character qas mourning shock losing her husband… did u really feel it?
Ferguson’s performance was best of the lot. But no matter how incredible her performance was audiences drawn to intelligent ringing persons big screen epic expect to reflect in momentunderstsnd magnitude what Ferguson’scharacter is feeling.
A Sex scene given polar internal tensions wirhin Paul’s mother would gone long way to really amplifying dramatic weight to us sense of loss.
In Blade Runner 2049 sure no actual set scene but in terms of maximising exploiting key moments Vilkenue got principle right balancing epic visuals with maximising all performances when it was needed. This film unlike DUNE had deeper resonance to audience than central characters of DUNE
This leads me to Timoth Chalamet. The kid is very talented actor don’t get me wrong however. One thing I feel of few things the campy, cheesy prior lynch’s DUNE got right was casting of Paul Atreides. KyleMclachlan set a standard outside if star wars universe as reluctant son of Paul but more urgency even in first part of one older DUNE film for him to really find a way to learn to evolve find way be his own Man. But he was sizable Mchlachlan as Paul physically.
Consistent to Frank Herbert’s vision of Paul . But Mchlachlans performance was highlight of first DUNE movie made , because there was determination urgency make sense of visions and dreams. Also Age profile of Mchlachlans character and of actor reflective of son of leader of house Atreides ready eventually take the reigns.
I question ( but admit I don’t know fully till ptII of Villenue’s Dune), whether Chalamet is best choice for Paul Atreides who looks too much like a kid even by end of pt I oy JUST starting find his feat as aspiring leader.
Audiences buy in and remember character esp in fiction story that fits age profile and potential physicalstature of a leader even if when ATreides father was alive, back in original DUNE movie, you could feel thay Mchlachlans version of Paul early part of thay one film, he had essence presence due his age profile and physical presence combined with higher level of intensity creeper in to early part of Lynchs Film.. u could sense he knew deep down he was destined for great things .
I just don’t get that essence ” presence ” impression with youthful considerably small frame of Chalamet. As Paul .
I also feel Sean Young as Chani more suited than casting Zedaya again… I withhold judgement but remember other part Lynch’s film got right I question not sure Villenue on right track is given she both becomes mentor not just lover to Paul given she represents future bind of Atreides and the Fremen …and given she so a fierce warrior.. Sean Young fit the part.
And I say it it especially important given the nature of still suits ( I never seen better costume design in detail intricacy in Sci fi epic before )… that as ‘ Chani’ represented more thsn just Atreides lover she very much had authority within her own pple in her own right ? Like Chalamet I do worry not sure whether Zendaya have height , physical screen presence and’ ooomph ‘ factor of gutsy determined citrageous warriors ..which whay Sean Young as Chani and Kyle Mchlachlan as Paul had.
And yes given the pivotal nature of union in pt II villenue HAS to validate central pivotal role of relationship in shaping union to take it o hatkonnens and the evil emperor’s Sandukar forces, there need be big intense sex scene there too.
I feel more mature actore needed I not saying that Zendaya and Chslamet not very gifted actors wirh big futures they are but are these roles for type of roles they been cast in right choice for pt II what should be cluster of big battles interspersed with Emperor harkonnens plotting and mentoring of Paul into Fremen ways ? Do they have the physical presence and authority in their nature as type of actors to take level of authority leadership determination fearless warrior mebtakity in pt II? Zendaya’s Chalamet’s performances going to another level in pt II to suit dire accelerated state of play on Arrakis, given their pivotal role, will be difference between whether this film is excellent or a outstanding masterpiece.
Two actors performances that shine are Ferguson who overdue for Oscar recognition andawin should get nominated this year… and whoever plays the sinister emperor’s wife and mother to Ferguson.
But other shortcomings were within violence in parts. Now I not suggesting it had to be ” Last duel” type graphic brutal violence.
But S described the Harkonnen are ‘ brutal relentless , ruthless ” yet most brutal pivotal killings were off-screen or bit brief.
Again in Villenue’s bold Sci fi seminal masterpiece Bladerunner 2049 he maximised captured key violent dark moments consistent to his vision … but in DUNE it bit disappointing that esp when Harkonnen killed no bloody or visually brutal aftermath.
That said casting for Harkonnen is pitch perfect ..I just love Skaarsgard as the ruthless deceitful calculating Barron. And Bautista as the ‘ field general’ if u like. Both physically and nature of their characters Villenue captures their dark intentions cast the right actors ro a tea.
The death scene if Paul Atreides was underdone should been more violent as it was pivotal moment . Too many off screen or simplistic killings means Harkonnen as brutalforce overall and house not quite reach potential I hoped for. It actually did in the original film.
Now I lobe Hanz zimmer but believe it or not this is NOT his best score. I think this film should been released in IMAX too cos how astonishing immersive those vistas and visual storytelling would be?
I understand Villenue particularly caters to more family oriented movie but it actually needed more dare I say it ” spice” to shape key characters how they shape Paul’s destiny more brutal violence captured on screen.
I love the ” shimmer” effect ability in combat of Atreides warriors but still some key battles needed be more bloody.
I think in Aust. Should been ” MA” rating and low “R” in the states cos one thing Sci fi epic genre lacked it darker edgier more mature feel and given potential capture stakes in quest to fight one’s convictions which is ehat key driver for Paul’s rise to power as a eventual leader.. to capture that u need add higher stakes demonstrate what at stake esp in storyline of such vast complex series of novels film adapted from asDUNE.
Not outright best picture of year one of best. Here hoping the duoology ( which I feel should be a trilogy given were 6 books maybe then there be far richer deeper fleshing out of interrelationships and key moments in evolution if Atreides house ally with rhe Fremen.. ) take drama how it conveys higher stakes to another level . I hope it does so I can say when pt II comes out this saga is one of I’d not the GREATEST Sci fi non franchise epic hollywood ever released. Still potential but now we wait and see.
Oh for record Sandworm final reveal stole the show too brilliant epic design !
Atm I give it 76%, B score, and I give it 3 Oscars.. vis effects , cinematography , costume design . If pt II closer what I hope ? Then it deserves for it saga win whole lot more MAYBE if Zendaya and Chalamet can do it one those 2 could win whrn pt II comes out next
I guess I’m in the minority but I prefer the novel to the film. I found it more engaging and more of an emotional gutpunch. Phil is a more interesting character in the novel and I found the ending to hit harder since you get the scene with Phil and Peter’s father.
There are always choices made in an adaptation. Having read the book now, I think the adaptation is brilliant and makes the correct artistic choices.
I love both.
Does the book have the bull castration scene
It starts with it !
“The reason this matters is that The Power of the Dog has a low audience score. Its other hurdle is being a Netflix movie. Can this be the first Best Picture winner for a streaming service? It’s going to happen eventually. We just don’t know when.”
Well..if a streaming service film wins eventually let make it something that not so frankly uneventful so droll, so sociologically pathologically demented in overshadowing whatever glorious vistas Power of the Dog may have by the inter family brawling..anti- male agenda of the film it not i say that it description of the plot at LEAST last year Nomadland did not DARE touch darkest of divisive themes.
Over time my views of the other darkest but LEGITIMATELY controversial as in justified not cos it themes but the level of on screen brutal graphic brutality in bringing true nature of horrors of black oppression and slavery to the whites in America’s past history..but cos it historic cos it factual cos it did happen everyone inc myself (however reluctantly cos i feared the #oscars so white agenda clouded the race in 12 years a slaves favour but it stands to this day as a standout example of JUSTIFIED provocative themes that film audiences however hard understandably it was to watch did embrace maybe not with excitement but unlike Power of the Dog it had strong collective word of mouth that it was important film worth seing oscar so white campaign or not..i whole heartedly agree…I haven’t forgotten..i did decry the film for winning at the time not cos themes werent powerful enough in my mind i could not separate the OSCARS justification for going so one sided in that awards season it was never anything against that film.
Before people get on their high horse to point out what they ought to know before commenting ‘how bleedingly obvious big difference between 12 years and Power of the Dog i say this RIGHT NOW!! well duuuuh! i bloody well know that! BUT for film so demented in themes way it looks at the themes..irrespective of the supposed ‘positive twist;’ to end of film i dont care what it is of TPOTD, you DO have to go back as far as 12 years a slave to see a simil;ar divisive type film..though UNLIKE 12 years a slave..the fact of the matter is esp as Power of the Dog is a work of fiction seriously could Jane Campion actually PICK a more worthwhile uplifiting story or concpet of one that does not demonise mean in this post – ‘me too’ insanity that awards season seem to get tangled up in years after peak of this movement has passed?
It not that i not over it but both #Oscars so white and # me too it fact that these are internal debates being had within powers that be across major award season key indicator awards across all of awards season since these overblown movements were hijcaked by the radical extreme left oscar CHOOSE GUILDS CHOOSE, BAFTAS CHOOSE, GLOBES CHOOSE to go down this ultra turbulent path they have only themselves to blame if they go to the next extreme.
Just cos Power of the Dog is a well crafter film does not change the fact that it is mired in much controversial themes of type of human anti human VERY GENERALLY speaking provocative nature of 12 years a slave. but difference are STARK 12 years a slave is true uncomfotable but necessarily improtant fact it rose about # oscars so white and confronted head on what hollywood most prestigfious awards season refused to endorse for far too long..good on filmmakers and cast and crew for that.
But does POWER OF THE DOG need to be sqeamish at level of gravity of in form of film dressing down and exposure of utter sadistic lunacy to make out the main male character as typified of ‘men in leadership role’ such as main character who own the ranch? a film frankly where ones unhappiness and envy and jealousy perverts discontent SHOULD be unsettling as theme in time f uncertainty in these times OSCAR WOULD BE DAMNED if they touch such themes.. we NEED UPLIFTING INSPIRING . NOT DROLL AND BITTER
I sorry Aronciodo i respect you like the film but for me i suspect many others i just cannot bear thought of likes of Dune, West Side Story, Last Duel succumbing to upcoming desperate arrogant campaign by producers of TPOTD to key direct into the disaffected young generation echo through twitter etc..i do respect those have diff view to me but i am representiative if you not seen through ever alarmingly declining trend of lack of oscar viewers going down the shit tube…overall yet there are silent majority who once tuned in to key awards show ceremonies like me who only care to tune in AFTER the outcome..I AM THAT MAJORITY DISENCHANTED VOTER. IF I WAS ONE DISILLUSSIONED BUT NOT DISAFFECTED AND WE ARE COMING TO RECLAIM TO RESTORE AND ENHANCE AT SAME TIME LOST SOUL OF AWARDS SEASON..IT INEVITABLE EVEN IF IT DOES NOT COME STRAIGHT AWAY.
THE MOST COMPELLING QUESTION IS HOW MUCH LONGER WILL THE ACADEMY COME TO REALISE TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR THEM TO REMAIN VIABLE..IN EYES OF SILENT MAJORITY DISAFFECTED WITH THEM? HOW LONG CAN GUILDS , BAFTA , GLOBES TOO AFFORD TO SO BLATANTLY UNDERMINE PLAY ON FALSE HOPES THAT A BIG SCREEN STUDIO NOMINATED FILM WILL GET RESPECTABLE TREATMENT? IT NOT SUSTAINABLE WE ALL KNOW THIS SO WHAT AWARDS SEASON PROBLEM WITH THIS?
If you need to share this drivel with us can you A; please explain WHY these movies are anti-male/socialist/whatever and B; learn how to TL;DR and format properly because no one wants to read this lengthy word salad in its current state
Funny how u presume arrogantly it ‘ drivel” yet…reflected on outcomes year on year Oscars and guilds choices push main audience Oscar badly needs get back in their side away kinda kills of u notion that POTD is what audiences and critics United UNITED want ey,? Try again convince me YOUR point of view ..if u have one why YOU think powe of Dog bot left win sociological crap
If you could actually elaborate on anything you’re claiming and back it up with examples – which you can’t – I’d be less inclined to think you’re talking out of your arse
And please learn how to spell if you’re going to try and sound smart
It seems to me, while Power of the Dog is the critics’ darling, Belfast seems to be the Oscars pundits’ darling. Neither have great track record predicting the Oscars.
I think that Belfast is going to win. Power of the Dog is a player in so many categories. It can be amply rewarded in Director, Screenplay, Cinematography, and two acting categories. Its support is throughout a bunch of categories. Paradoxically, Belfast plays in fewer categories, so its support could be channeled in screenplay, picture, and one other award like supporting or a tech, giving it the traditional three that several Best Pictures have gotten. That’s my Julie theory, and I am sticking to it.
WSS’s reply…. What am I, chopped liver?
The winner is lying there in plain sight and yet they are choosing to ignore it (shrug)
I personally wouldn’t declare WSS as the clear winner. But I find it foolhardy to dismiss it as one of the strong contenders (it missing Globes screenplay nod notwithstanding).
Well then, take your pick cos it’s going to be one of those three
It’s definitely not in the “can be ruled out” category yet, by any means…
No one is watching it. In The Heights which is far less known Broadway musical had a better opening weekend and this is with it streaming on HBO Max at the same time.
There are several reasons why I see West Side Story in the third position. I don’t see it as likely to win director or screenplay, and it has not won any Best Picture awards from critics that I know of. Add to that the fact that it’s a remake of a movie that won 10 Oscars and struggling at the box office… Belfast and Power of the Dog are more likely. It also missed screenplay at the Globes, which Oscar winners recently have had consistently.
It has its weaknesses for certain. But the other two are pretty weak too, in my observation. And b.o. number isn’t a convincing point b/c it’s not like Dog and particularly theatrical released Belfast are making lots of money in contrast. Ppl talk like Belfast is doing Green Book number. Too few clues to go by at this point.
AMPAS reply…You’re a remake of a BP winner. Sit down.
Like I’ve said before, I’m a fan of this theory. I think it’s quite on point…
I disagree with this. When was the last time a film won directing, screenplay, cinematography plus two acting categories and then lost picture?!
Even directing plus screenplay alone and then no picture are rare.
At the end of the day, I believe The Power of the Dog will simply become the first film on a streaming platform to win best picture. And it won’t be that much of a shocker. After all, Netflix even waited some time for it to premiere. So what’s the release difference between it and King Richard?
There’s no guarantee it will most of those, and I am not sure they want to reward streaming after what happened with theaters and adult drama this year. Either one of us could be right.
Critics have no interest in predicting Oscars.
I obviously meant as precursors.
What?
As above- pundits BP predictions
TPOTD- 13
Belfast- 7
WSS- 3
Belfast is not the pundits darling when almost double predict TPOTD for BP.
It’s ridiculous that PTA, Linklater, Tarantino, Wes, Nolan, and Fincher have never won Picture or Director. They’re not young anymore, and you never know when they are going to lose their touch. Villeneuve is probably creeping into that category.
IT’s not a great year, so it would be a good time for Dune and/or PTA.
soo true
!
Another random stat: the last film to win both Directing and Writing (consensus is that Campion will easily win both) and lose Best Picture was Brokeback Mountain.
Before that must have been The Pianist and Traffic
Traffic won four out of the five Oscars it was nominated for.
And was nowhere as good a film as Bill Duke’s Deep Cover !
Annie Proulx wrote the afterword for the novel and was consulted in the making of TPOTD film. It would be so nice for the film to win.
which also features LGTB issues in cowboy environment… just saying.
It’s basically Brokeback Mountain with some There Will Be Blood thrown in there for flavor
in the end, it was pretty hollow, wasn’t it? Yes, there are some themes there, but felt they were stretched rather than chewed. Don’t get me wrong, TPOTD is an outstanding film, pure filmmaking, but…
It’s no masterpiece but I enjoyed it for what it was. I doubt it will be my best of the year
so far, it is in my top 5… but probably may not end on my top 10
1. Bo Burham’s Inside (I really doubt anything will take this one down)
2. Parallel Mothers
3. Historias Lamentables (Unfortunate Stories) *2020 in Spain, it seems not released in the USA yet.
4. The Power of the Dog
5. The Dance of the 41
Just finished “Being the Ricardos” *** 1/2 / C+ . I am sorry to go against the stream, but I think Bardem was the MVP, in a cast in which no one is flawed and should be in contention to the nomination for the SAG Ensemble… I could see this one getting up to 4 acting noms at the Oscars, but I am unsure if the Screenplay is as much as a lock, beyond the obvious love for Sorkin. At moments, it felt better than Chicago 7, but I had problems with the choices for cinematography – however, I loved how Sorkin kept Tony Hale’s character in the dark at key moments. A good film, that I can see nominated for Best Picture thanks to the acting branch specially, but can’t help thinking what other more capable directors could have gotten with such an awesome cast and brilliant idea for screenplay that somehow was a bit all over the place (probably it needed another rewrite to polish?). Have the impression it will have a filler Best Picture nomination and Nicole Kidman for Actress, and outside that, your guess is as good as mine, with plenty of iffy chances for Actor, Supporting Actor (Simmons, but also Hale), Supporting Actress (x2), Screenplay, Cinematography – rather not, though -, Film Editing, Production Design, Costume, Sound, Score (but I am no fan) and Make Up. I’d go right now to bet it will only be nominated for Actress OR will score 4+ nominations including Best Picture.
Here here,!
Hear, hear!
Spot-on…
Agree completely !
I think Drive my Car has the momentum now. Belfast is too niche, The Power of the Dog a bit lully- but could win if people give it a chance and actually watch it- West Side Story looks tired- I don’t know why Spielberg would think a pretty average musical from the 60’s would be the zeitgeist now- Dune doesn’t have a chance in hell- and all the others look like they don’t have high enough stakes. I think people are wanting something Wow these times we’re crossing. If Dogville came out this year it would win, me thinks. If you look at Cannes, they went for the bold, and I don’t see bold in the lineup this year
Drive My Car has no shot in hell for general categories outside of Best International Feature Film.
Exactly
I don’t see it as a major BP player. It might very well get nominated but it’s not going to win
“I don’t understand why the rating for Power of the Dog is so low.”
Maybe because it’s boring as hell. Just because some critics decided it’s great film does not mean everybody must agree.
If someone wants to see a great movie about a Dog check out Sam Fullers long suppressed masterpiece White Dog ! And speaking 0f TPOTD when are we going to get it’s promised companion piece The Legend of Bronco Henry which by the way was based on a real person !
The novelty of the gay cowboy wore off after Brokeback Mountain
..the gay scene went belly up after that
No one thinks everybody must agree on a film that critics or quite frankly anyone else likes. I don’t know what gave you the idea. I’m sure you like a bunch of crap films that no one else gives a rat’s arse about too. And that’s perfectly ok.
The best Globes stat is not the screenplay btw – it’s that every BP winner for a long long time (can’t check how long right now, but long) has been nominated for all three of Picture, Director, Screenplay.
If the Globes can be trusted this year (big if), that leaves only Belfast and The Power of the Dog in the race.
Crash is the last time they weren’t. (From memory.)
CRASH wasn’t even nominated for BP at the GG’s right? lol
Yup. And, unlike at the Critics Choice (which also had a joint screenplay category back then), it even lost screenplay to Brokeback Mountain…
‘2001’ didn’t win anyway alas (except VFX) so the voting system didn’t have much to do with it. It was just too good for the Academy, too good for humanity maybe.
If The Power of the Dog was not Netflix, I would easily predict it for a PGA/DGA/WGA sweep to the Oscars. Netflix might give it a hard time at the PGA and thus some skepticism remains warranted, but I still think it’s above the competition.
I’d say that… for the win
1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog (winning Director)
3. West Side Story (winning Director)
4. King Richard (winning actor)
5. Being the Ricardos (subject matter, possible Acting wins)
6. CODA (winning Supporting Actor AND upsetting in Adapted)
7. anything else
I have yet to see more than a couple people who have any more to say about Belfast than it being pretty good, and I cannot think of another film in recent memory as destined to be forgotten the second this awards season ends.
Exactly… what was that movie about ? It had no grand narrative..it was just so bland and vanilla
That was exactly my impression of the film: I really liked many aspects of it (even though the arduous directing style cheesed me off), but within one or two days after watching it I almost completely forgot the film. It´s certainly very accessible and I would not be surprised to see it winning “Best Picture” (as “Green Book” did, a film quite similar in terms of by-the-numbers crowdpleaser with little substance).
I have so many films left to see, but in general this year, I’ve found it perhaps the least memorable year for movies in ages. There are very few films this cycle I give much of another thought of after a few days. That said, most of the ones I still think about aren’t anywhere near the current race/players.
Belfast and Campion.
My crystal ball is vacillating at the moment. It’s either:
TPOTD and Campion;
WSS and Campion; or
WSS and Spielberg.
I don’t see Belfast anywhere. 🙂
Right on
I’d add:
TPOTD and Campion;
WSS and Campion; or
WSS and Spielberg.
Belfast and Branagh (Screenplay).
You mean…
Belfast (Song) and Branagh (Screenplay). 🙂
The Power of the Dog and Campion.
You said it yourself in previous years about best picture winner on preferential ballot:
1) it’s a movie you can sit anyone in front of and they will get it. power of the dog is not that movie, most people don’t get the subtext.
2) it’s about good people doing good things. Power of the dog is not that movie.
Parasite is also not that movie.
Beyond the Korean dialogue, Parasite is actually very accessible. Hilarious, dramatic, thrilling. It is not arthouse like The Power of the Dog and Roma.
But the two answers of the questions above would still be two times “No”, don´t you think so? I know several people who did not “get it” and “good people doing good things” doesn´t apply either.
Parasite is not that movie. Nomadland also doesn’t hold up to criterion 1.
Streamer vs Studio will be the story of this campaign
“ There was no other movie that could challenge Nomadland. It was partly the movie and partly the idea of the movie winning. ”
And the “idea” of Nomadland winning was what again? Your own stats show that it had high audience and critics scores. And it played in theaters longer than the NY/LA Netflix qualifying run. It wasn’t a streamer, Mank/Chicago/Ma Rainey were. Zhao was going to win Best Director because…get this…BECAUSE SHE DID THE BEST JOB. It only cost five million for crying out loud. Hell of an achievement. And McDormand is royalty in the industry. So to reduce the win to “Zhao Chinese” is less than fair to what was accomplished
You don’t know why the Audience score for Power of the Dog is so low ? I do ! It’s a slow-moving period mood piece where you watch a Raging Bull fight to stay in the closet versus Norman Bates becoming his Mother without a shower scene !
Witty post.
If that Globe Screenplay stat is as significant as it is; then one of:
Licorice Pizza
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Don’t Look Up
Being the Ricardos
will prevail for BP at the Oscars. But as Eastwood was an outlier to the stat in the past two decades, if anyone else may come along and join him it would be Steven Spielberg – like Eastwood a Superstar for different reasons. AND wasn’t it Spielberg that whipped up a frenzy of chatter the year ‘Roma’ was poised for victory, and then it didn’t? Whilst i didn’t agree with him then or now, Spielberg was arguing and won for rules to stay in place about contenders for the Academy Award to still premiere in a cinema to qualify.
If the chief proponent of that anti streamer sentiment has a strong contender this year, I wouldn’t underestimate him or his ability to break some stats and end up winning BP with West Side Story. There’s a strong narrative – 60th anniversary; Spielberg is an American icon, and the year’s alternatives are darker and with their own hurdles to overcome to reach the top of the Preferential pile.
I don’t see Licorice Pizza, Don’t Look Up or Being the Ricardos taking BP, so we come back to the same 3 – Belfast, Power of The Dog and West Side Story. Unless there’s a late breaker or a sleeper that no-one has considered has the form required to battle it out.
“Unless there’s a late breaker or a sleeper that no-one has considered has the form required to battle it out.”
There is.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b446951a1bde9e2de4d9f227b8087d84a4fddc8aa646740bc3bbc2d8410a41be.gif
I say this with a big caveat, because I haven’t seen it yet, but I just have this feeling West Side Story is the big winner.
Here me out:
1. Everyone keeps bringing up the “box office bomb”….what if that becomes a positive narrative….people LOVE Spielberg, his films which, again haven’t seen this one, often get nominated even when they are meh/good—War Horse or Bridge of Spies. This feels like it will be better than those. But Spielberg rarely, if ever, has directed a box office bomb….that could cause people to vote for it for the reason of it being unworthy of that label. I think people know it would have made money had Covid and marvel not gotten in its way. He has so much love and respect that the negatives being swung could cause a black lash for people to vote for it because they love Spielberg.
2. It feels like a movie that’s gonna be placed near the top of ballots. It may get a lot of number 1s because of people actually liking the movie, but the good will of Spielberg in my theory above could cause it to get a lot of 2s and 3s. Every year Sasha always talks about looking out for that kind of movie….and more often than not, that type of film wins.
3. Power of the Dog is the type of film that takes director but not picture. Belfast will challenge the WWS narrative in example 2–but it’s losing steam in my opinion and I think it could likely go home with just maybe an acting win or even a writing win but that’s it. Licorice Pizza I think is likely one of the writing winners for finally awarding PTA, but it still could lose. Being the Ricardos may not even get in for BP—but all eyes on Kidman.
4. I think WWS is flying perfectly under the radar right now. Enough time to build the narrative of the little engine that could that was unfairly treated/labeled and trashed because of “money” and not on its merits.
5. Add all the above to the comments you made about West Side Story and I think it could be the surprise winner.
Sherlock Holmes deductive reasoning; eliminate the suspects who didn’t do it and the one that is left, however unlikely it may seem, did do it
If you feel that way about WSS without even seeing the movie, then when you actually do, you’ll be even more convinced of your intuitive hunch .. you wont fail to be impressed as it’s such an improvement on the original, but even that went on to win BP
I’m not even sure that Campion is winning BD as Speilberg has not won an oscar in twenty years for BD and this may well be his year
Most stats will eventually be broken(given enough time) and that ”stat” at the GG is fragile as ten usual screenplays are condensed into five ..to say that WSS will not win BP because of that seems very dubious indeed to me
Realistically, I can only see three movies winning BP, but the Dawg is handicapped with the pref ballot, while Belfast is just vanilla, so that leaves a crowd pleaser of WSS to win by default
I don´t really see WSS winning. I guess too many voters might ask themselves about the relevance of the new adaptation. They´ve honored WSS before and Spielberg´s version – even though offering a new interpretation of the source – doesn´t really feel that fresh and innovative to justify the effort – I mean, it´s a very traditional, kind of old-fashioned film. And it probably also won´t help that the film bombed at the Box Office.
Which film do you currently predict to win BP, Dominik (btw, Merry Christmas to you)
Thank you Dave, I wish you a Merry Christmas too! 🙂
I hate to be that unoriginal but I guess it´s either Belfast (probably the most obvious choice in terms of the specific character of that movie – accessible and emotive) or TPOTD. In case the guilds don´t push a different film to the top but I don´t see which film that should be.
Still early days really. But for these days, I wish you and yours the very best Dominik. Happy Christmas and Much Happy Viewing.
I´m already in a sugar delirium, Dave!!
I would have thought remaking a film that has already won BP a major barrier to winning BP beyond the stats hurdles. I agree the streamer issue is there though and I wonder how it will play out.
I have a hard time believing TPOTD could win. Belfast feels like the inevitable winner to me. Hoping something interesting changes this race.
You’re half right, but Belfast is never going to win BP
King Richard has zero-point-zero chance of winning.
This!
Love All chance of winning?
That’s sweet. Thank you. Hope your holidays are going well.
The crowd pleaser narrative is sure getting a run this year, and there’s the 93rd mention of it.
A few points about this: TPOTD was second runner up at TIFF, it won the Tellirude ratings & was #1 film globally on Netflix. No mean feat for a movie that apparently audiences don’t like enough,
Both Belfast & WSS bombing at the BO undercuts their “crowdpleaser” narrative.
But biggest issue is that AMPAS has been far more critic-friendly in their choices in the preferential era: apart from Green Book (69) all winners have had 86+ on MC with an average of 90.
Some examples:
Parasite (97) beat 1917 (78)
Nomadland (93) beat Trial (71)
Spotlight (93) beat The Revenant (76)
TPOTD and WSS (just under at 85) are the only main contenders that meet this stat.
TPOTD and Belfast are the only ones with GG Picture, Director, Screenplay.
TPOTD is the strongest stats- wise at present and is favoured in Director, adapted screenplay and supporting actor, strong if not favoured in actor and strong in cinematography & score. It’s a formidable challenger,
And what people forgot most is the CAMPAIGN. They have barely started.
Will be interested to see how it all plays out…
Sorry to say, mate but I afraid Sasha;s attempt being objective is more viable and credible than your theory…nice try lol …and i think we need stop kidding ourselves…it IS DAMNING FACT that Power of the Dog is actuallt LAGGING on balance on audience respectability rating tell me everyone! how the FUK is it justified to continually year on year on year most years in LAST 15 YRS to sell out film audiences in awards season at the expense of this insular self- gratification crap? how the devil can ANYONE justify awards season persisting on a LOSING path? time to face facts people IRREFUTABLE FACT the LONGER AWARDS SEASON ENGAGES TOO CLOSELY WITH TWITTER AS THEY HAVE WITH BELFAST AND POWER OF THE DOG THIS YEAR THE MORE DISENGAGED THE MAINSTREAM SUPPORTERS OF ACADEMY WILL VEER AWAY FROM…SO REALLY ANDREW IT INEXCUSABLE AND UNFORGIVEABLE NO MATTER WHAT YOU SAY YOUR DEFENCE OF THEORY FROM UNVALIDATED SOURCES YOU REFER TO SOMEHOW AGAINST THE SILENT MAJORITY TREND POWER OF THE DOG IS A CROWD PLEASER IS AN INSULT TO ACTUAL OTHER CONTENDERS THAT ACTUALLY TOOK TIME AND ENERGY TO INSPIRE IN WAY THEY MADE THEIR FILMS AND TOOK FILM AUDIENCES WITH THEM..
We SHOULD BE IRRESPECTIVE OF STATS BEING ALL THE RAGE OF DUNE, NO TIME TO DIE, LAST DUEL, WEST SIDE STORY FILMS THAT AUDIENCES CARE ABOUT PROVEN TO DO SO BIG TIME THIS YEAR …TALK BOUT AWARDS SEASON BACKING THE BIGGEST LOSER- IN THE EYES OF US!!
You previously said that you were respectful, yet you are incredibly rude to other people. Beyond arrogant and completely out of touch. You should be far more respectful to others.
Just for the record, #1 on Netflix doesn’t mean anything. That just means people pressed play….doesn’t show how well liked something is….not really something to use as a meter for how good something is or that it means it can win BP. I mean Sandra Bullocks film is number 2 right now, does that mean she will be nominated at the Oscars? This is just a silly reason to use for a winning narrative, and 100% unreliable.
I’d be willing to bet lots of people turned it off after starting—because it’s not the average user on Netflix friendly.
My Best Picture predictions:
Belfast
CODA
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Invert that list and you will be a lot closer
I don’t understand what that means and I won’t respond to it
Add two more.
Why AMPAS might not lol
but they will have a fixed 10 this year
Wow wow wow. Wow
The Tragedy of Macbeth over Spidey? Ain’t happening.
With this lineup of contenders, no wonder no one watches the Oscars anymore
it’s slightly better than last year. Coda, King Richard and Dune are good. Didn’t see Belfast yet.
I’m confused that Sasha is confidently predicting a split, when it doesn’t make any sense. There will not be a split.
Kenneth Branagh is winning both Best Picture and Best Director.
How about neither ?
Branagh doesn’t have the momentum to win Director
I don’t predict him to be nominated for Director
With dark horses like DRIVE MY CAR in the running for BP and BD, Branagh could easily get snubbed. Or almost anyone for that matter… But we’ll have to wait and see.
Is Licorice Pizza more like a Cameron Crowe movie than a Paul Thomas Anderson movie? Full of optimism?
I’ve just seen Being the Ricardos and I love it very much!
Smart, witty, superbly acted and magnificent cinematography.
Love Nicole Kidman’s best performance to date. I feel that she’s truly embodied Lucille Ball’s spirits and soul. She disappeared into the characters. That voice – spectacular. Nicole can win the Best Actress Oscar.
my reactions exactly 🙂
Loved her as well.
It wasn’t the same for me 🙁
It’s always so fascinating to me that we all can watch the same thing and have such different opinions of the same thing watched. I loved Being the Ricardos and Kidman, and then others didn’t enjoy it and didn’t admire the performances. Wild stuff.
Great analysis! I wasn’t aware of Power of the Dog had such a low score, but I’m not surprised. The payoff justifies the deliberateness of the beginning. I know I found myself very uncomfortable for the first hour but by the credits rolling I understood how brilliantly calculated the film was. It’s such a great piece of directing. I don’t want to insult anyone who didn’t like it…but to say it’s boring is odd to me, but I guess the real question is what will the Academy think.
Love the mention of Leaving Las Vegas. All these years later I’m still sad it didn’t get a BP nomination.
POTD is the only BP contender I’ve seen so far (which is only like 5) that I’ve continued to think about after having finished it. Other than having a song from TTB stuck in my head lol.
The direction was very meticulous and absolutely deserves to win from what I’ve seen… Screenplay as well.
I haven’t seen Power of the Dog yet but my cousin said it’s “worse” that Roma. We both believed there was no way Roma would take BP on the preferential ballot because it was just a piece of “art” and not made like a traditional movie. It was the type of movie that wins all the techs but not Best Picture.
So what type of movie is Power of the Dog? I’m
not racing to Netflix to see it but that audience score has to mean something. It certainly sparked my cousin’s ire, who said that “nothing happens” in it. So we shall see.
Roma also suffered from people complaining that nothing happens in it. So they switched it off.
I’ve seen The Power of the Dog a few times by this point, and I have no idea how people say “nothing happens.” It’s a film that might not have a lot of plot, or at least not an overarching setup and payoff, but there is so much going on under the surface. It’s the kind of film you can piece over for days, but you get out of it what you put into it.
In short, it’s a character study by way of a pressure cooker. It’s very much about how Plemons, Dunst, and Smit-McPhee each deal with Cumberbatch, who is this deeply antagonistic force.
It’s a film that might not have a lot of plot, or at least not an overarching setup and payoff.
Yes, but for a lot of people, they require those elements for a satisfying viewing experience. And it’s reasonable to think that AMPAS voters are among these people.
The POwer of the Dog would not win even if it were not a pref ballot as it would be fishing in the same pool of voters as Belfast, thereby leaving a more accessable crowd pleaser like WSS to win
“fishing in the same pool of voters” is not a thing with the preferential ballot. That’s what the preferential ballot is for.
That’s why I wrote ”even if ”
I agree that it’s worse than Roma and that “nothing happens”, basically…