Predictions Friday – When Picture, Director, and Screenplay All Line Up

There is a trend of late of directors writing their own screenplays. This hasn’t been the norm throughout Oscar history and was actually somewhat rare, reserved for only the very few who were as good at writing as they were at directing. Great writing doesn’t always equate to great directing and vice-versa.

Now, it’s the norm for a film to be written and directed by the same person and the exception for it not to be. I will come clean and admit that I prefer films that are written and directed by different people. Only a handful of the films I most love are by people who did both.

That is one of the reasons in the era of the expanded ballot we don’t see a lot of writer-directors winning both Director and Screenplay, along with Picture, though it does happen. A few have won Director and Writer but not Picture, and Picture and Director, or Picture and Screenplay.

Let’s look at the era of the expanded ballot — I use the word “auteur” to mean someone who wrote or co-wrote the film they directed:

2020: auteur — Nomadland — Picture, Director
2019: Auteur — Parasite — Picture, Director, Screenplay (co-writer)
2018: auteur — Green Book — Picture, Screenplay (co-writer)
2017: auteur — The Shape of Water — Picture, Director
2016: auteur — Moonlight — Picture, Screenplay (co-writer)
2015: auteur — Spotlight — Picture, Screenplay (co-writer)
2014: auteur — Birdman — Picture, Director, Screenplay (co-writer)
2013: auteur — 12 Years a Slave — Picture, Screenplay (co-writer)
2012: non-auteur — Argo — Picture, Screenplay
2011: auteur — The Artist — Picture, Director
2010: non-auteur — The King’s Speech — Picture, Director, Screenplay
2009: non-auteur — The Hurt Locker — Picture, Director, Screenplay

But if we go back the previous decade we find:

2008: non-auteur — Slumdog Millionaire — Picture, Director, Screenplay
2007: auteur — No Country for Old Men — Picture, Director, Screenplay
2006: non-auteur — The Departed — Picture, Director, Screenplay
2005: auteur — Crash — Picture, Screenplay
2004: non-auteur — Million Dollar Baby — Picture, Director
2003: auteur — ROTK — Picture, Director, Screenplay (co-writers)
2002: non-auteur — Chicago — Picture
2001: non-auteur — A Beautiful Mind — Picture, Director, Screenplay
2000: non-auteur — Gladiator — Picture
1999: non-auteur — American Beauty — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1998: non-auteur — Shakespeare in Love — Picture, Screenplay
1997: auteur — Titanic — Picture, Director
1996: auteur — The English Patient — Picture, Director, Screenplay (co-writer)
1995: non-auteur — Braveheart — Picture, Director
1994: non-auteur — Forrest Gump — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1993: non-auteur — Schindler’s List — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1992: non-auteur — Unforgiven — Picture, Director
1991: non-auteur — The Silence of the Lambs — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1990: non-auteur — Dances with Wolves — Picture, Director, Screenplay

I probably don’t need to trace it back all the way, right? Oh what the hell, let’s do a few more:

1989: non-auteur — Driving Miss Daisy — Picture, Screenplay
1988: non-auteur — Rain Man — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1987: auteur — The Last Emperor — Picture, Director, Screenplay (co-writer)
1986: auteur — Platoon — Picture, Director
1985: non-auteur — Out of Africa — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1984: non-auteur — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1983: auteur — Terms of Endearment — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1982: non-auteur — Gandhi — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1981: non-auteur — Chariots of Fire — Picture, Screenplay
1980: non-auteur — Ordinary People — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1979: auteur — Kramer vs. Kramer — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1978: auteur — The Deer Hunter — Picture, Director
1977: auteur — Annie Hall — Picture, Director, Screenplay (co-writer)
1976: non-auteur — Rocky — Picture, Director
1975: non-auteur — One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1974: auteur — Godfather II — Picture, Director, Screenplay (co-writer)
1973: non-auteur — The Sting — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1972: auteur — The Godfather — Picture, Screenplay (co-writer)
1971: non-auteur — The French Connection — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1970: non-auteur — Patton — Picture, Director, Screenplay 
1969: non-auteur — Midnight Cowboy — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1968: non-auteur — Oliver! — Picture, Director
1967: non-auteur — In the Heat of the Night — Picture, Screenplay
1966: non-auteur — A Man for All Seasons — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1965: non-auteur — The Sound of Music — Picture, Director
1964: non-auteur — My Fair Lady — Picture, Director
1963: non-auteur — Tom Jones — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1962: non-auteur — Lawrence of Arabia — Picture, Director
1961: non-auteur — West Side Story — Picture, Director
1960: auteur — The Apartment — Picture, Director, Screenplay (co-writer)
1959: non-auteur — Ben Hur — Picture, Director
1958: non-auteur — Gigi — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1957: non-auteur — Bridge On the River Kwai — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1956: non-auteur — Around the World in 80 Days — Picture, Screenplay
1955: non-auteur — Marty — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1954: non-auteur — On the Waterfront — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1953: non-auteur — From Here to Eternity — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1952: non-auteur — The Greatest Show on Earth — Picture, Screenplay
1951: Non-auteur — An American in Paris — Picture, Screenplay
1950: auteur — All About Eve — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1949: auteur — All the King’s Men — Picture
1948: non-auteur — Hamlet — Picture
1947: non-auteur — Gentlemen’s Agreement — Picture, Director
1946: non-auteur — The Best Years of Our Lives — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1945: auteur — The Lost Weekend — Picture, Director, Screenplay (co-writer)
1944: non-auteur — Going My Way — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1943: non-auteur — Casablanca — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1942: non-auteur — Mrs. Miniver — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1941: non-auteur — How Green Was My Valley — Picture, Director, Screenplay
1940: non-auteur — Rebecca — Picture
1939: non-auteur — Gone with the Wind — Picture, Director, Screenplay 
1938: non-auteur — You Can’t Take it With You — Picture, Director
1937: non-auteur — The Life of Emile Zola — Picture, Screenplay
1936: non-auteur — The Great Ziegfeld — Picture
1935: non-auteur — Mutiny on the Bounty — Picture
1934: non-auteur — It Happened One Night — Picture, Director, Screenplay

As you can see, it’s pretty rare for a single person to win Picture, Director, and Screenplay. It is slightly less rare to win with a co-writer. It is easier to win Picture, Director, AND Screenplay when the film is a “non-auteur” movie. Otherwise, you are looking for an either/or scenario, i.e., either Director OR Screenplay.

In the era where there were five Best Picture nominees, a film winning all three awards happened more often, but back then it was more rare for directors to write their own screenplays. I think it is more than just a need to spread the wealth. I think there used to be a bit of a stigma with writers who directed and directors who wrote. There was the joke “but I really want to direct,” which was often laid at the feet of writers. So that might have been part of why it was a practice that was discouraged. But now it is the established norm. It is almost seen as strange if people don’t direct their own screenplays.

Now let’s look at what we’re working with this year:

Auteur:
The Power of the Dog — written and directed by Jane Campion
Belfast — written and directed by Kenneth Branagh
Licorice Pizza — written and directed by Paul Thomas Anderson
Don’t Look Up — written by Adam McKay and David Sirota, directed by McKay
Nightmare Alley — written by Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, directed by Del Toro
Dune — co-written by Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts, and Eric Roth, directed by Villeneuve
CODA — written and directed by Sian Heder
The Tragedy of Macbeth — written and directed by Joel Coen
Being the Ricardos — written and directed by Aaron Sorkin

Non-auteur:
West Side Story — written by Tony Kushner, directed by Steven Spielberg
King Richard — written by Zach Baylin, directed by Reinaldo Marcus Green
Spider-Man: No Way Home — written by Chris McKenna and Erik Sommers, directed by Jon Watts
The Last Duel — written by Nicole Holofcener, Ben Affleck, and Matt Damon, directed by Ridley Scott
Cyrano — written by Erica Schmidt, directed by Joe Wright

The films, then, that would be most likely to sweep with Picture, Director, and Screenplay would have to be:

West Side Story
King Richard
Dune (co-writer)
Don’t Look Up (co-writer)

But most likely, we’re still going to see a scenario where Picture goes EITHER with Director OR Screenplay.

Anyway, here are the predictions for this week.

Best Picture
1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. West Side Story
4. King Richard
5. Dune
6. Licorice Pizza
7. CODA
8. Don’t Look Up
9. Nightmare Alley
10. Spider-Man: No Way Home

If SAG boosts Being the Ricardos, I would probably think about replacing Nightmare Alley, perhaps. But we have to wait and see how they decide.

Best Director
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
5. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Alts: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Alts: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye; Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom
Alts: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up; Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Alts: Rita Moreno, West Side Story; Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos; Ann Dowd, Mass; Haley Bennett, Cyrano; Martha Plimpton, Mass

Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up
Alts: Mike Faist, West Side Story; Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar; Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up; Jared Leto, House of Gucci

Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
The Lost Daughter
West Side Story
CODA
Dune
Alts: Nightmare Alley, The Last Duel

Original Screenplay
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
King Richard
Being the Ricardos
Alts: Parallel Mothers, C’mon C’mon

Cinematography
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
West Side Story
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dune
Alt: Nightmare Alley

Costumes
Cruella
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Dune
Alts: The Last Duel, The Power of the Dog

Editing
Dune
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
West Side Story
The Power of the Dog

Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
The French Dispatch

Sound
Spider-Man: No Way Home
West Side Story
Dune
No Time to Die
tick, tick… Boom!

Visual Effects
Spider-Man: No Way Home
No Time to Die
Dune
The Eternals
Shang-Chi

Makeup and Hairstyling
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

Original Score
The Power of the Dog
Don’t Look Up
Encanto
Dune
King Richard

Original Song
Be Alive from “King Richard”
No Time To Die from “No Time to Die”
Down To Joy from Belfast
Just Look Up from Don’t Look Up
Here I Am (Singing My Way Home) from Respect

Animated Feature
Encanto
Mitchells vs. the Machines
Luca
Flee
Spirit Untamed

International Feature
Japan, Drive My Car
Denmark, Flee
Iran, A Hero
Italy, The Hand of God
Norway, The Worst Person in the World
Alt: Finland, Compartment No. 6

Documentary Feature
The Rescue
Summer of Soul
Flee
Julia
Procession