Steve Pond has a good column today at The Wrap. In it, he says that although voters HAVE ten slots, they don’t actually have to fill in all ten slots. Says Steve:
This year, in an attempt to get more diversity into the nominations, the Academy is returning to a flat 10 nominees and giving voters 10 lines on their online ballots. And even though the ranked-choice or preferential system of vote counting means that lower choices don’t come into play all that often, the mere existence of those spots can encourage voters to think expansively, not narrowly.
And in place of the single round of ballot redistribution that has been in use since 2011, the PwC accountants will go back to multiple rounds, which will provide far more opportunities for films to move up in the rankings even if they aren’t ranked first on a lot of ballots.
And he closes with:
For this to work, though, Oscar voters will need to fill all 10 spots on their ballots. The Academy rules only say they can vote for “not more than 10 movies.” And copious anecdotal evidence suggests that some don’t fill in all the slots because they’re afraid of hurting their favorite films by voting for other movies, which is a total misunderstanding of how ranked-choice voting works.
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: you cannot hurt the chances of the film ranked No. 1 on your ballot by putting another movie at No. 2 or 3 or 10. All you can do is give yourself more say in what gets nominated.
So, dear Oscar voters, please, please seize the opportunity to vote for 10 films. If you can’t think of 10 that deserve your vote, watch more movies until you can; it might be another strange year, but there is lots of deserving work out there – 276 films qualified this year and more than 150 are in the Academy Screening Room, and what else do you have to do between now and the start of voting next Thursday?
I only disagree with Steve on one point: I don’t think Academy voters care all that much about how the awards turn out, with the sole exception of perhaps protecting their collective image when it comes to the headlines a day after. For instance, there’s an Academy member I know — a lovely person in the animation branch. She is your typical baby boomer lefty who wants to do good things in the world. She’ll only show up at Academy screenings if there is food served. Okay, fine. It’s a hassle to get out of the house, etc. She voted enthusiastically for Green Book because she loved the movie. She thought it had a great message and it made her feel hopeful. But then the next time I saw her she felt shame for that vote. “I should have voted for ROMA,” she said.
Now I figure, the last thing you want to be called if you’re someone like that is a racist. The Academy used to be more inclined towards Holocaust-themed films. That makes sense because for the longest time, the dominant generation in the Academy membership lived through World War II. But that generation has been replaced by the boomers. Race and racism are a bigger pressure point for them. When they picked Crash, they did so because they believed it had a strong message about racism (no matter what else drove them away from Brokeback Mountain).
Naturally, my friend voted enthusiastically for Parasite the following year because not only was it an excellent film, but it was also an International Feature like ROMA was, and it gave her a chance not to have to read the headlines the following day that said “Academy picks all white winners in all major categories” — which is exactly what would have happened had, say, 1917 won Picture and Director, along with the all-white acting winners. Headlines that year would have been brutal.
Academy voters are motivated in some ways and not in others. I don’t think any of them care about making the Oscars relevant, particularly. If you talk to any of them, they will simply say they pick what they think are the best movies. But of course, we know that the whole thing has been so tightly micromanaged that they only really have a small pile to choose from. They pick from that pile by the people in this room:
(Pause to reflect on the genius of Meryl Streep … okay moving on)
So if they know people WANT them to pick Spider-Man, they aren’t going to feel that pressure for any reason, as Steve points out. He believes, and I believe, that if they do fill out ten we’re still likely to see the same kinds of movies Oscar voters like. These are what my 23 year-old daughter’s generation calls “Oscar movies, and they’re always the same movie.”
But (and I promise I will stop talking about Spider-Man) there is one other factor to consider. That is our dying world. Okay, maybe just our dying country. Okay, maybe just the dying blue states. We on the left have become undone by our collective fear. Fear of half the country. Fear of COVID. Fear of climate change. Fear of speech. Fear of contrary opinions. Fear of books. Fear of movies. Fear defines who we are now. That means we’re not really going to the movies anymore much. Why should we? Why should the Academy members either for that matter? It’s a huge hassle to drive all the way out to the new location on Fairfax and Wilshire. I’m not even that old and tired, but I’m still almost too old and tired to do that. It’s nice and all, but the old location was more convenient.
Yes, it’s a first-world problem, a privileged class lament, but it is the reality. BUT people overcame their fears to see Spider-Man. They did that. It happened. Spider-Man has just beaten Black Panther at the domestic box office even with Blue America stuck at home.
It’s frankly shocking:
In the latest episode of Bari Weiss’ podcast Honestly, she speaks to ProPublica journalist Alec MacGillis about the haves and the have-nots. It delivers some hard truths that are absolutely worth listening to. But this part struck me in particular:
But I do think this goes beyond the risks to the Democrats coalition, [it’s more about] the pandemic response to the economy is posing to all sorts of institutions that sort of make up life in blue places, all these institutions that are especially important or prominent, central to life in liberal America, you know, schools, of course, as we’ve talked about, but also colleges, academia, the performing arts, libraries, and museums, public transit, independent businesses, the bookstores, all these institutions are in peril because or have been greatly undermined by the closures, and also by the general sort of hunkering down that has happened in Blue America.
And I just, I really do worry that some of these institutions are going to be, you know, undermined and harmed in a very lasting way. I find it’s somewhat confounding and inexplicable why my Blue America has put the institutions that it cares about, the aspects of life and culture that it really values, at such risk by having hunkered down for so long. It also has political aspect to it – all those institutions, what makes up blue America, what sustains it, have been weakened…
I’ve always conceived of liberals as being the more community-minded, socially-minded, you know, let’s get together. Let’s overcome our differences. Let’s live in cities. Let’s live densely real belief in togetherness and sort of feel Hello, we’ve met kind of spirit. Whereas the sort of stereotype of Americans conservative was Get off my lawn, I’ve got my alarm system, I got my dog, you know, and that stereotype of a more kind of standoffish, somewhat sort of defensive kind of mindset. And so it’s been really striking to watch this inversion in the last couple years, where it’s been liberal America that has been much more inclined to really hunker down and withdraw to the point of really almost becoming, you know, fearful of the neighbor of other people of other humans.
Are we really going to hand over the whole thing? We’re just going to give up, live on our WALL-E-like spaceship and in our protective bubbles?
I hope not.
A friend of mine sent this to me yesterday:
I think the Oscars are changing into a film festival. There is a huge, elite audience for fine films. When you are in a crowd of 20 million people, it is hard to imagine you are actually part of a fairly small minority.
I think that is ultimately right. Fighting to make them more relevant is probably foolish. Their fandom, such as it exists at all, might only be the younger, hipper, highly educated elite — aka Film Twitter. And they are really into the art of film, especially experimental and international film, as opposed to big studio product. The industry appears to be leaning in that direction if there is anything left. But that is not as interesting of an awards race, to be perfectly honest. It isn’t as interesting if it involved only a certain type of person.
But we’re not quite there yet. So what do we know?
We know we’re likely dealing with a winnowed-down pile chosen by the tastemakers as the best offerings to hand to the industry voters.
We know what the precursors up to now think, what they like. Our largest voting body thus far has been the Screen Actors Guild nominating committee. They liked these five cast ensembles best:
Don’t Look Up
CODA
House of Gucci
Belfast
King Richard
That’s a pretty good group of movies, I’d say. They actually are populist movies even if most of the general moviegoing population has not yet seen them. All five of them do not require any sort of film appreciation class to understand them. Sit anyone down in front of all of them and the point of them will come through, even if they aren’t perfect movies.
But the key thing to note is that it is unusual for all five of the SAG ensemble nominees to make the Best Picture cut. Not impossible but unusual, even in the era of the expanded ballot. These are the years where they did:
2014 — Boyhood, Birdman, Theory of Everything, The Imitation Game, The Grand Budapest Hotel
2010 — The King’s Speech, The Social Network, The Fighter, Black Swan, The Kids Are All Right
And that’s it. Those two years tell me that they are always driven by the acting frontrunners: three acting winners in 2010, two acting winners in 2014. So looking at our list now, it looks like we have at least one acting winner with Will Smith in King Richard.
The Golden Globes actually have a much stronger match for Best Picture, and this year they have:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
SAG has House of Gucci, the Globes do not.
And then they have:
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Cyrano
Licorice Pizza
tick…tick…Boom!
At most, though, the Oscars usually only pull one or two titles from Musical/Comedy at the Globes. Let’s quickly look at the past, oh say 30 years:
*-won Globe, +won Oscar
1990 — 1/5 (Ghost)
1991 — 1/5 (Beauty and the Beast)
1992 — 0/5
1993 — 0/5
1994 — 1/5 (Four Weddings and a Funeral)
1995 — 1/5 (Babe)
1996 — 2/5 (Fargo, Jerry Maguire)
1997 — 2/5 (As Good as it Gets*, The Full Monty)
1998 — 1/6 (Shakespeare in Love*+)
1999 — 1/5 (Chocolat)
2001 — 2/5 (Moulin Rouge!*, Gosford Park)
2002 — 1/5 (Chicago*+)
2003 — 1/5 (Lost in Translation*)
2004 — 2/5 (Sideways*, Ray)
2005 — 0/5
2006 — 1/5 (Little Miss Sunshine)
2007 — 1/5 (Juno)
2008 — 0/5
2009 — 0/5
2010 — 1/5 (The Kids Are All Right)
2011 — 1/5 (The Artist*+)
2012 — 2/5 (Les Mis*, Silver Linings Playbook)
2013 — 4/5 (American Hustle*, Her, Nebraska, Wolf of Wall Street)
2014 — 2/5 (The Grand Budapest Hotel*, Birdman+)
2015 — 2/5 (The Martian, The Big Short)
2016 — 1/5 (La La Land*)
2017 — 2/5 (Lady Bird*, Get Out)
2018 — 3/5 (Green Book*+, The Favourite, Vice)
2019 — 2/5 (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*, Jojo Rabbit)
2020 — 0/5
Okay, so once 4/5 got in Best Picture, in 2013. Just for fun, let’s now look at what was happening in the Drama category that year:
12 Years a Slave*+
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Philomena
Rush
Only one didn’t get in: Rush. The only movie that got into Best Picture that wasn’t on the Globes list that year was Dallas Buyers Club.
So the idea is that probably at most two get in the Best Picture lineup from Globes Musical/Comedy UNLESS it’s a year like 2013. Or even a year like 2018 where three out of five got in.
These are the Globe Musical/Comedy nominees again this year:
West Side Story*
Cyrano
Licorice Pizza
tick, tick…Boom!
Don’t Look Up
Of those, only one also has a SAG ensemble nomination: Don’t Look Up. In 2013, guess what got a SAG ensemble nomination but not a Globe? Dallas Buyers Club. But we don’t have that problem this year because the Globes and SAG match. That doesn’t happen often. But beware, there are instances of the Globes and SAG matching but then missing Oscar (since 2009):
2018 — Crazy Rich Asians
2012 — Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
2011 — Bridesmaids
2009 — Nine
On to the predictions.
Predictions
Best Picture
1. Belfast (Globes/SAG)
2. The Power of the Dog (Globes/Scripter)
3. West Side Story (Globes)
4. King Richard (Globes/SAG)
5. Dune (Globes/Scripter)
6. Licorice Pizza (Globes)
7. CODA (Globes/SAG)
8. Don’t Look Up (Globes/SAG)
9. House of Gucci (Globes/SAG)
10. Spider-Man: No Way Home (hoping against hope)
The alts for this are quite clear to me. Follow the actors. That means you’re likely to see that tenth slot as:
The Lost Daughter (Olivia Colman+Maggie Gyllenhaal)
tick, tick… Boom! (Andrew Garfield)
Being the Ricardos (Nicole Kidman)
Nightmare Alley (Cate Blanchett)
We have a stacked deck, my friends. A stacked deck.
Best Director
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
5. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Alts: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley; Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Best Actress
This category still does not have an official frontrunner. We still do not know how it will go, despite who won the Globe.
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Kristen Stewart, Spencer or Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Alt: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos or Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Alt: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Alts: Rita Moreno, West Side Story; Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos; Ann Dowd, Mass; Haley Bennett, Cyrano; Martha Plimpton, Mass
Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Alts: J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos; Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up; Mike Faist, West Side Story; Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up; Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
The Lost Daughter
West Side Story
CODA
Dune
Alts: Nightmare Alley, The Last Duel
Original Screenplay
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
King Richard
Being the Ricardos
Alts: Parallel Mothers, C’mon C’mon
Cinematography
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
West Side Story
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dune
Alt: Nightmare Alley
Costumes
Cruella
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
The French Dispatch
Alts: The Last Duel, The Power of the Dog
Editing
Dune
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
West Side Story
The Power of the Dog
Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
The French Dispatch
Sound
Spider-Man: No Way Home
West Side Story
Dune
No Time to Die
tick, tick… Boom!
Visual Effects
Spider-Man: No Way Home
No Time to Die
Dune
The Eternals
Shang-Chi
Makeup and Hairstyling
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Original Score
The Power of the Dog
Don’t Look Up
Encanto
Dune
King Richard
Original Song
Be Alive from “King Richard”
No Time To Die from “No Time to Die”
Down To Joy from Belfast
Just Look Up from Don’t Look Up
Here I Am (Singing My Way Home) from Respect
Animated Feature
Encanto
Mitchells vs. the Machines
Luca
Flee
Spirit Untamed
International Feature
Japan, Drive My Car
Denmark, Flee
Iran, A Hero
Italy, The Hand of God
Norway, The Worst Person in the World
Alts: Finland, Compartment No. 6
Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul
Flee
The Rescue
Julia
Procession
Whew. That was a long one.
