Steve Pond has a good column today at The Wrap. In it, he says that although voters HAVE ten slots, they don’t actually have to fill in all ten slots. Says Steve:
This year, in an attempt to get more diversity into the nominations, the Academy is returning to a flat 10 nominees and giving voters 10 lines on their online ballots. And even though the ranked-choice or preferential system of vote counting means that lower choices don’t come into play all that often, the mere existence of those spots can encourage voters to think expansively, not narrowly.
And in place of the single round of ballot redistribution that has been in use since 2011, the PwC accountants will go back to multiple rounds, which will provide far more opportunities for films to move up in the rankings even if they aren’t ranked first on a lot of ballots.
And he closes with:
For this to work, though, Oscar voters will need to fill all 10 spots on their ballots. The Academy rules only say they can vote for “not more than 10 movies.” And copious anecdotal evidence suggests that some don’t fill in all the slots because they’re afraid of hurting their favorite films by voting for other movies, which is a total misunderstanding of how ranked-choice voting works.
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: you cannot hurt the chances of the film ranked No. 1 on your ballot by putting another movie at No. 2 or 3 or 10. All you can do is give yourself more say in what gets nominated.
So, dear Oscar voters, please, please seize the opportunity to vote for 10 films. If you can’t think of 10 that deserve your vote, watch more movies until you can; it might be another strange year, but there is lots of deserving work out there – 276 films qualified this year and more than 150 are in the Academy Screening Room, and what else do you have to do between now and the start of voting next Thursday?
I only disagree with Steve on one point: I don’t think Academy voters care all that much about how the awards turn out, with the sole exception of perhaps protecting their collective image when it comes to the headlines a day after. For instance, there’s an Academy member I know — a lovely person in the animation branch. She is your typical baby boomer lefty who wants to do good things in the world. She’ll only show up at Academy screenings if there is food served. Okay, fine. It’s a hassle to get out of the house, etc. She voted enthusiastically for Green Book because she loved the movie. She thought it had a great message and it made her feel hopeful. But then the next time I saw her she felt shame for that vote. “I should have voted for ROMA,” she said.
Now I figure, the last thing you want to be called if you’re someone like that is a racist. The Academy used to be more inclined towards Holocaust-themed films. That makes sense because for the longest time, the dominant generation in the Academy membership lived through World War II. But that generation has been replaced by the boomers. Race and racism are a bigger pressure point for them. When they picked Crash, they did so because they believed it had a strong message about racism (no matter what else drove them away from Brokeback Mountain).
Naturally, my friend voted enthusiastically for Parasite the following year because not only was it an excellent film, but it was also an International Feature like ROMA was, and it gave her a chance not to have to read the headlines the following day that said “Academy picks all white winners in all major categories” — which is exactly what would have happened had, say, 1917 won Picture and Director, along with the all-white acting winners. Headlines that year would have been brutal.
Academy voters are motivated in some ways and not in others. I don’t think any of them care about making the Oscars relevant, particularly. If you talk to any of them, they will simply say they pick what they think are the best movies. But of course, we know that the whole thing has been so tightly micromanaged that they only really have a small pile to choose from. They pick from that pile by the people in this room:
(Pause to reflect on the genius of Meryl Streep … okay moving on)
So if they know people WANT them to pick Spider-Man, they aren’t going to feel that pressure for any reason, as Steve points out. He believes, and I believe, that if they do fill out ten we’re still likely to see the same kinds of movies Oscar voters like. These are what my 23 year-old daughter’s generation calls “Oscar movies, and they’re always the same movie.”
But (and I promise I will stop talking about Spider-Man) there is one other factor to consider. That is our dying world. Okay, maybe just our dying country. Okay, maybe just the dying blue states. We on the left have become undone by our collective fear. Fear of half the country. Fear of COVID. Fear of climate change. Fear of speech. Fear of contrary opinions. Fear of books. Fear of movies. Fear defines who we are now. That means we’re not really going to the movies anymore much. Why should we? Why should the Academy members either for that matter? It’s a huge hassle to drive all the way out to the new location on Fairfax and Wilshire. I’m not even that old and tired, but I’m still almost too old and tired to do that. It’s nice and all, but the old location was more convenient.
Yes, it’s a first-world problem, a privileged class lament, but it is the reality. BUT people overcame their fears to see Spider-Man. They did that. It happened. Spider-Man has just beaten Black Panther at the domestic box office even with Blue America stuck at home.
It’s frankly shocking:
In the latest episode of Bari Weiss’ podcast Honestly, she speaks to ProPublica journalist Alec MacGillis about the haves and the have-nots. It delivers some hard truths that are absolutely worth listening to. But this part struck me in particular:
But I do think this goes beyond the risks to the Democrats coalition, [it’s more about] the pandemic response to the economy is posing to all sorts of institutions that sort of make up life in blue places, all these institutions that are especially important or prominent, central to life in liberal America, you know, schools, of course, as we’ve talked about, but also colleges, academia, the performing arts, libraries, and museums, public transit, independent businesses, the bookstores, all these institutions are in peril because or have been greatly undermined by the closures, and also by the general sort of hunkering down that has happened in Blue America.
And I just, I really do worry that some of these institutions are going to be, you know, undermined and harmed in a very lasting way. I find it’s somewhat confounding and inexplicable why my Blue America has put the institutions that it cares about, the aspects of life and culture that it really values, at such risk by having hunkered down for so long. It also has political aspect to it – all those institutions, what makes up blue America, what sustains it, have been weakened…
I’ve always conceived of liberals as being the more community-minded, socially-minded, you know, let’s get together. Let’s overcome our differences. Let’s live in cities. Let’s live densely real belief in togetherness and sort of feel Hello, we’ve met kind of spirit. Whereas the sort of stereotype of Americans conservative was Get off my lawn, I’ve got my alarm system, I got my dog, you know, and that stereotype of a more kind of standoffish, somewhat sort of defensive kind of mindset. And so it’s been really striking to watch this inversion in the last couple years, where it’s been liberal America that has been much more inclined to really hunker down and withdraw to the point of really almost becoming, you know, fearful of the neighbor of other people of other humans.
Are we really going to hand over the whole thing? We’re just going to give up, live on our WALL-E-like spaceship and in our protective bubbles?
I hope not.
A friend of mine sent this to me yesterday:
I think the Oscars are changing into a film festival. There is a huge, elite audience for fine films. When you are in a crowd of 20 million people, it is hard to imagine you are actually part of a fairly small minority.
I think that is ultimately right. Fighting to make them more relevant is probably foolish. Their fandom, such as it exists at all, might only be the younger, hipper, highly educated elite — aka Film Twitter. And they are really into the art of film, especially experimental and international film, as opposed to big studio product. The industry appears to be leaning in that direction if there is anything left. But that is not as interesting of an awards race, to be perfectly honest. It isn’t as interesting if it involved only a certain type of person.
But we’re not quite there yet. So what do we know?
We know we’re likely dealing with a winnowed-down pile chosen by the tastemakers as the best offerings to hand to the industry voters.
We know what the precursors up to now think, what they like. Our largest voting body thus far has been the Screen Actors Guild nominating committee. They liked these five cast ensembles best:
Don’t Look Up
CODA
House of Gucci
Belfast
King Richard
That’s a pretty good group of movies, I’d say. They actually are populist movies even if most of the general moviegoing population has not yet seen them. All five of them do not require any sort of film appreciation class to understand them. Sit anyone down in front of all of them and the point of them will come through, even if they aren’t perfect movies.
But the key thing to note is that it is unusual for all five of the SAG ensemble nominees to make the Best Picture cut. Not impossible but unusual, even in the era of the expanded ballot. These are the years where they did:
2014 — Boyhood, Birdman, Theory of Everything, The Imitation Game, The Grand Budapest Hotel
2010 — The King’s Speech, The Social Network, The Fighter, Black Swan, The Kids Are All Right
And that’s it. Those two years tell me that they are always driven by the acting frontrunners: three acting winners in 2010, two acting winners in 2014. So looking at our list now, it looks like we have at least one acting winner with Will Smith in King Richard.
The Golden Globes actually have a much stronger match for Best Picture, and this year they have:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
SAG has House of Gucci, the Globes do not.
And then they have:
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Cyrano
Licorice Pizza
tick…tick…Boom!
At most, though, the Oscars usually only pull one or two titles from Musical/Comedy at the Globes. Let’s quickly look at the past, oh say 30 years:
*-won Globe, +won Oscar
1990 — 1/5 (Ghost)
1991 — 1/5 (Beauty and the Beast)
1992 — 0/5
1993 — 0/5
1994 — 1/5 (Four Weddings and a Funeral)
1995 — 1/5 (Babe)
1996 — 2/5 (Fargo, Jerry Maguire)
1997 — 2/5 (As Good as it Gets*, The Full Monty)
1998 — 1/6 (Shakespeare in Love*+)
1999 — 1/5 (Chocolat)
2001 — 2/5 (Moulin Rouge!*, Gosford Park)
2002 — 1/5 (Chicago*+)
2003 — 1/5 (Lost in Translation*)
2004 — 2/5 (Sideways*, Ray)
2005 — 0/5
2006 — 1/5 (Little Miss Sunshine)
2007 — 1/5 (Juno)
2008 — 0/5
2009 — 0/5
2010 — 1/5 (The Kids Are All Right)
2011 — 1/5 (The Artist*+)
2012 — 2/5 (Les Mis*, Silver Linings Playbook)
2013 — 4/5 (American Hustle*, Her, Nebraska, Wolf of Wall Street)
2014 — 2/5 (The Grand Budapest Hotel*, Birdman+)
2015 — 2/5 (The Martian, The Big Short)
2016 — 1/5 (La La Land*)
2017 — 2/5 (Lady Bird*, Get Out)
2018 — 3/5 (Green Book*+, The Favourite, Vice)
2019 — 2/5 (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*, Jojo Rabbit)
2020 — 0/5
Okay, so once 4/5 got in Best Picture, in 2013. Just for fun, let’s now look at what was happening in the Drama category that year:
12 Years a Slave*+
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Philomena
Rush
Only one didn’t get in: Rush. The only movie that got into Best Picture that wasn’t on the Globes list that year was Dallas Buyers Club.
So the idea is that probably at most two get in the Best Picture lineup from Globes Musical/Comedy UNLESS it’s a year like 2013. Or even a year like 2018 where three out of five got in.
These are the Globe Musical/Comedy nominees again this year:
West Side Story*
Cyrano
Licorice Pizza
tick, tick…Boom!
Don’t Look Up
Of those, only one also has a SAG ensemble nomination: Don’t Look Up. In 2013, guess what got a SAG ensemble nomination but not a Globe? Dallas Buyers Club. But we don’t have that problem this year because the Globes and SAG match. That doesn’t happen often. But beware, there are instances of the Globes and SAG matching but then missing Oscar (since 2009):
2018 — Crazy Rich Asians
2012 — Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
2011 — Bridesmaids
2009 — Nine
On to the predictions.
Predictions
Best Picture
1. Belfast (Globes/SAG)
2. The Power of the Dog (Globes/Scripter)
3. West Side Story (Globes)
4. King Richard (Globes/SAG)
5. Dune (Globes/Scripter)
6. Licorice Pizza (Globes)
7. CODA (Globes/SAG)
8. Don’t Look Up (Globes/SAG)
9. House of Gucci (Globes/SAG)
10. Spider-Man: No Way Home (hoping against hope)
The alts for this are quite clear to me. Follow the actors. That means you’re likely to see that tenth slot as:
The Lost Daughter (Olivia Colman+Maggie Gyllenhaal)
tick, tick… Boom! (Andrew Garfield)
Being the Ricardos (Nicole Kidman)
Nightmare Alley (Cate Blanchett)
We have a stacked deck, my friends. A stacked deck.
Best Director
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
5. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Alts: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley; Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Best Actress
This category still does not have an official frontrunner. We still do not know how it will go, despite who won the Globe.
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Kristen Stewart, Spencer or Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Alt: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos or Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Alt: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Alts: Rita Moreno, West Side Story; Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos; Ann Dowd, Mass; Haley Bennett, Cyrano; Martha Plimpton, Mass
Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Alts: J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos; Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up; Mike Faist, West Side Story; Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up; Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
The Lost Daughter
West Side Story
CODA
Dune
Alts: Nightmare Alley, The Last Duel
Original Screenplay
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
King Richard
Being the Ricardos
Alts: Parallel Mothers, C’mon C’mon
Cinematography
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
West Side Story
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dune
Alt: Nightmare Alley
Costumes
Cruella
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
The French Dispatch
Alts: The Last Duel, The Power of the Dog
Editing
Dune
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
West Side Story
The Power of the Dog
Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
The French Dispatch
Sound
Spider-Man: No Way Home
West Side Story
Dune
No Time to Die
tick, tick… Boom!
Visual Effects
Spider-Man: No Way Home
No Time to Die
Dune
The Eternals
Shang-Chi
Makeup and Hairstyling
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Original Score
The Power of the Dog
Don’t Look Up
Encanto
Dune
King Richard
Original Song
Be Alive from “King Richard”
No Time To Die from “No Time to Die”
Down To Joy from Belfast
Just Look Up from Don’t Look Up
Here I Am (Singing My Way Home) from Respect
Animated Feature
Encanto
Mitchells vs. the Machines
Luca
Flee
Spirit Untamed
International Feature
Japan, Drive My Car
Denmark, Flee
Iran, A Hero
Italy, The Hand of God
Norway, The Worst Person in the World
Alts: Finland, Compartment No. 6
Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul
Flee
The Rescue
Julia
Procession
Whew. That was a long one.
“But the key thing to note is that it is unusual for all five of the
SAG ensemble nominees to make the Best Picture cut. Not impossible but
unusual, even in the era of the expanded ballot. These are the years
where they did:
2014 — Boyhood, Birdman, Theory of Everything, The Imitation Game, The Grand Budapest Hotel
2010 — The King’s Speech, The Social Network, The Fighter, Black Swan, The Kids Are All Right”
Literally the two best precedents for Belfast winning Best Picture from the position it’s in right now… Which would make it pretty funny if it happened again this year. It well might, given how well Gucci seems to be playing with industry voters…
Having rewatched Guillermo Del Toro’s magnificent Nightmare Alley yesterday I got to say that one won’t find a film as visually dazzling, chilling and unforgettable easily through the entire season and I urge anyone who is willing to experience another fantastic cinematic journey with the filmaking genius that Del Toro is and the awe-inspiring cast and crew he has assembled here to do so in a movie theater ASAP. Audiences have to support films of that caliber if they can, especially through those difficult times, because if real art like this is replaced by simply fun, McDonalds’ type movies it will be a damn shame.
And on a sidenote I have to mention once again how phenomenal Bradley Cooper is here (that last scene still haunts me), especially in a year where he killed it in his limited screentime in Licorice Pizza and most importantly how PHENOMENAL Cate Blanchett is. Like yes, Cate is Cate, always expected to be brilliant but holy shit, the second time I watched the film is even more evident no one comes close to her supreme acting brilliance. It is Bradley Cooper’s film through and through and he kills it, everyone around him from the “carnival”, first half of the film (Rooney Mara, Toni Collette, William Dafoe, David Strathairn, just everyone is as good as you’d expect from talent of this caliber to be) to the second one where Richard Jenkins and Mary Steenburgen in her priceless cameo slay but Cate Blanchett carries so much depth, strength, power, vulnerability, sadness, sadism, mystique, sexiness, so damn many layers, many times all in the same frame that one watches her in awe. I remembered the film perfectly since catching it in a screening and falling in love with it in early December but I was at the edge of my seat with the way she delivered every line and look and movement in that last scene of hers (anyone who’s seen it knows the scene is intense af).
It’s just sad that Sasha here doesn’t even include in the possibilities section and a simply solid, standard, voters’ friendly turn by Aunjeune Ellis in King Richard for example is in the Top 5. If Cate Blanchett who by all means deserves to sweep every Best Supporting Actress this year with her ferocious turn in Nightmare Alley (and was equally scene-stealing and the the best of the bunch in another ridiculously great ensemble in Don’t Look Up this year as well) isn’t even NOMINATED, wtf, end the awards season already.
Artistry of that magnitude is a crime to be left unrecognized from major awards. Oscar voters have to nominate Del Toro’s great, great film in every major category they can, Picture, Director, Best Actor, Screenplay, Production Design (like duh) and for sure Best Supporting Actress for Cate Blanchett’s INCOMPARABLE turn. Having seen every film this awards season with the exception of Drive My Car and Cyrano, I have to say Cate’s turn is absolutely my favorite Best Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role. Ann Dowd’s haunting work in Mass is a close second. But seriously Cate’s line delivery in two crucial scenes (which I honestly don’t want to spoil for someone who hasn’t seen the film) is just… One can’t learn to act LIKE THAT. Like you have it or not and to say Cate does have “it” is an understatement. She should have had at least 4 Oscars and something like 15 (!) nominations already, I say give it her third one or at least a ridiculoudly overdue 8th nomination already.
If he had made it before SOW would it have won heaps of awards & SOW may have been the overlooked follow up?
I think so as well. If The Shape Of Water wasn’t as recognized as it was this marvel of a film (which doesn’t reach The Shape Of Water’s greatness btw but is great and then some in its own right) would have made a much bigger impact this season. It’s just that the film is so detailed, costumes, production design, acting, everything is so top notch you can’t be a cinephile, watch something like this and then easily go “oh yeah, so it didn’t have an impact with the awards, okay,” It pisses me off when films of such high artistic values are snubbed even in the nominations’ department for the usual “safe”, Oscar-bait stuff. I hope the film surprises at The Oscars and trust me, Cate HAS to make it in Supporting. And however great she was in Don’t Look Up (which was unbelievably great obviously) and for which performance The BAFTAs went in their Longlists, this is undoubtedly the superior work from her this year. She truly is in a league of her own. A legend and an acting giant through and through.
Yes to all this. Watched it twice. That ending had me gasping for air
Right? It’s insane how great Bradley was in that scene. And then seeing here that he’s not even mentioned as a possibility is egregious to say the least. It’s about to be a future classic, that’s for sure.
It’s all about the last 30 minutes … amazing ending.
House of Gucci passed $150 mil ww this weekend. That will factor in to both its chance at a BP nom and Gaga’s chance at a win.
Only semi-related: As much as I really liked Licorice Pizza, I think I would’ve liked it better without the last line. Other thoughts?
If I remember correctly what the last line was, wasn’t that the whole unspoken but obvious truth of the film? And therefore saying it makes the character’s journey complete?
That’s what everyone hates right
Spiderman NWH back on top with domestic earnings est. at $710m. That puts it 4th on the all time ranking. Next up; Avatar’s $760.5m. Does it have a shot by the end of next month? At this point, the best it can do is 3rd. What’s impressive is their global number ($1.69b)…*without* China.
Spider-man NWH will probably end up its earnings around $780 million, if the picture is recognized by the academy which i think it’ll do
Regarding the below…there a BIG difference between pragmatic left of politics and expression in cinema and radical left ideology.
My problem to be clear as some minority ( here thankfully) lesser bright pple may seek to misconstrue manipulate take out of proportion what I say.
It important note fundamental issue is not Twitter itself but powers that be that CONTROL it. It worth academy , guilds, bafta asking themselves wirh urgency here : ” do founders, investors, stake holders of Twitter, farcebook, social media represent the mainstream or centrist interests? ”
Cos right now key to fundamental change that have systemic positive flow on effect how awards season in public eye can take step to relevance is to re-evaluate their alignment as stands with current morally corrupt control levers in Twitter & social media alike…to frankly sidelined them..put 5hemwelves in most our shoes..
Oh I saw 355 really I admit if I wrong …first carnally of espionage thriller…be clear on how plot flows…no issue with acting but sense if fun engagement in the caper only half way there.
Director Kinsberg. Chose half film first half as serious semi melodrama with time wasting then second half took off as genuine caper thriller..
Chastain and Krueger as always what they star in are standout.
I admit I have see the 355 on blu ray..good enough me get thst just not as priority. Film could been great….so much potential all star cast. However critics which too many too weak in their resve to sideline influence toxic parts of social media influence in awards season we still way too harsh on the 355.
Action sequences when they happened were pretty cool don’t know what oroblrm is with thst and female cast look hot undercover qt the party scene..
Yet some critics have not sense of fun. With movies any more.. yes course their performances esp Chastain and Krueger stood out so did support cast too.
I think should be 1 sequel sew where goes maybe diff filmmaker potential there ey?
I haven´t seen anyone having posted this (sorry if in that case it´s redundant) but this is David Ehrlich´s montage of his Top 25 of the year – his videos are really amazing in my view: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFaUW008vas
“you cannot hurt the chances of the film ranked No. 1 on your ballot by putting another movie at No. 2 or 3 or 10. All you can do is give yourself more say in what gets nominated.”
Well Sasha Mr. POND is one few remaining universally respected historic all seeing perspective Hollywood dynamic understanding warrior for just cause of fighting for right of tradition big screen Hugh quality movie deservedly b frontrunners above arrogance pigheaded slander faction in academy of twiitersphere and scheming devil of radical left morons…
More than that he just rightfully exposed red raw simple fact the film voted most at no.1 in pref ballot wins best picture. So…it supposed be as simple as that.
But diluting it is seething hate and resentment of fake blue states fake cos they go too far to the left in pressuring, hassling academy select uncreative unvisionqry uninspiring films to contend.
ONLY REASON BELFARCE AND POWER OF A DOG OF A DAY QRE HEAVILY FAVOURED IS COS THEY CATER TO DUEL HYPOCRISY OF THE RADICAL LEFT WHO CSNNOT STAND THST BIDEN HAS DETONATED HIS NUKE RIGHT BENEATH HIS OWN FEET.!
Goes show whether far left win or lose let face it Biden is NOT true to his centrist democracy values wirhin he sold out to most green, radical activist cause…iro ically more radical left get it way in influence and power more morally corrupt thry become..more likely they fuk up the sanctity holy trail of what supposed be Hollywood night if nights for mire than just the elites…
But with great power comes great corruption ..this what happened ro broken I million pieces pref ballot. And this has given back door not in true diversity contenders but greater and limited diversity excessively to awards season own near future doom… to DIVERSITY OF SOCIOLOGICAL clusterfuk. Ideology.
I filthy furious enraged about it.. I seeing ” the 355″ soon…u know what? I delaying seeing few other Oscar conntners something I believe undervalued, undermined underappctd.!! Story of qcademys avoidable self inflicted woes !
Fuk ’em
Can you elaborate on how Belfast and The Power of the Dog cater to the hypocrisy of the radical left? What are you talking about?
There’s kind of an Anders Breivik vibe to Aaron’s rants.
Considering Ruth Negga is both SAG and Globe nominated, it is a curious oversight to see her not even mentioned as a possible alternate in these predictions. Obviously, just statistically, she would be normally listed as a likely nominee (and likely Marlee Matlin with far weaker precursor support would take an alternate spot).
Well, I just finished the Tender Bar, and honestly, I fell in love with Ben Affleck. The boy who played his nephew was a cutey and a real upcoming young star. Anyway, I liked Aflleck’s role, it seemed so natural. And I liked the story. It just naturally flowed, and the people seemed real.
I want to thank Amazon for having it available, because I’m in Chicago where it’s snowy and cold as hel, and I’m not in the mood to go out and see movies.
Totally agree. I was completely won over by The Tender Bar, and I hope by this award season’s end Affleck’s performance doesn’t end up seriously underappreciated. He’s relaxed and makes for extremely good company all the way through. I also admired Clooney’s genial, low-key direction. He doesn’t push, so the actors seem to freely enter into the “flow” you describe. Daniel Raniei as the younger version of JR, the protagonist, is a real find. And Lily Rabe as his mother is sublime.
My review is here (subscriptions are free):
https://moviestruck.substack.com/
Instead of rehashing all of my old responses to this copypasta, I’ll just rehash a couple of them:
1. Black Panther was nominated for BP in 2018. Joker was nominated in 2019. Did that have any effect on public perception and TV ratings? If not, why would nominating Spiderman be any different?
2. The movies haven’t changed and the Oscars haven’t changed. The audience has changed. The commentary from people like Sasha Stone has changed.
If Annie Hall or Kramer vs. Kramer or Ordinary People or Driving Miss Daisy or American Beauty came out this year, they would be called “small arthouse films that regular Americans have barely heard of.” If In The Heat Of The Night or Dances with Wolves or Platoon or The Deer Hunter came out today, they’d be called “left wing political preaching that regular Americans are sick of”. The Last Emperor would be called pro-PRC Communist propaganda. I don’t want to think about what Sasha’s favorite political commentators would say about Midnight Cowboy.
Incidentally, it’s funny to hear the anti-SJW crowd bemoan that “you couldn’t make Blazing Saddles today”. Blazing Saddles has a clear political message about how the wealthy use racism to manipulate poor white people, and includes a joke that’s just one of the main characters saying that rural white Americans are “morons”. If you made Blazing Saddles today conservatives would cite it as evidence that leftists are ruining comedy.
I agree completely with you. It’s so easy and convenient and frankly cheap and boring to devolve again and again into a discourse about how Liberals and Film Twitter (used so frequently by the author to mean the same thing, as if non-liberal Trump sycophants are just innocent bystanders) are ruining the Oscars without giving clear examples of exactly what she means: Will nominating Spider-Man, The Last Duel, Respect and West Side Story bring the Oscars back to the glory old days of 30-40M viewers and bring her favorite Middle America “back” to the Oscars? Is that what she’s saying, we don’t know. When she said the Oscars have lost its way, was she specifically referring to Best Picture winners like Nomadland, Moonlight, Spotlight and Parasite? Was it a mistake to give these films Best Picture that contributed to Oscar ratings doom? What would she have given the Oscars to in those years instead which would have salvaged the show? We don’t know. Which movie does she want to win this year so that the Oscars can be saved? We don’t know.
Because the author likes to peddle in the same vague talking points and veiled attacks and words of faux outrage against liberals and elitists and clueless Hollywood critics who are so horrible for loving so-called “arthouse” films, whatever that means. Are films like Driving Miss Daisy, Fargo, There Will Be Blood, The Last Emperor, Annie Hall, Do the Right Thing, Ordinary People, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, The Piano, Hannah and Her Sisters, The Remains of the Day, Midnight Cowboy, Unforgiven, In the Heat of the Night, Brokeback Mountain and any number of anti-Vietnam War films in the 70s and 80s “arthouse” and toxic, or woke and liberal propaganda, or populist and therefore acceptable to her “America-first” sensibilities? We don’t know. So just keep speaking in tongues and pretend she is this generation’s Winston Churchill speaking the “truth” against the “status quo” determined to “silence” her. If anything, delusions of grandeur this girl is.
Maybe she should practice what she preaches and stick to what she does best, which is Oscar predictions, and stay away from politics. Isn’t that what she demands Hollywood does, which is STFU and stop talking politics??
Final predictions-2 1/2 weeks til oscae nominations
94th annual Oscar Predictions-Final
Best Picture
Belfast. (9 Nominations)
Dune. (11 Nominations)
Don’t Look Up. (4 Nominations)
King Richard. (5 Nominations)
House of Gucci. (5 Nominations)
Licroice Pizza. (4 Nominations)
Power of the Dog. (9 Nominations)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (4 Nominations)
The Tragedy of Macbeth. (6 Nominations)
West Side Story. (5 Nominations)
Best Director
Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh for Belfast
Steven Spielberg for West Side Story
Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza
Denis Villeneuve for Dune
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye (2 Nominations)
Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter (1 Nomination)
Lady Gaga in House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos (2 Nominations)
Kristen Stewart in Spencer (2 Nominations)
Best Actor
Will Smith in King Richard
Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog
Nicholas Cage in Pig. (1 Nomination)
Andrew Garfield in Tick Tick Boom (2 Nominations)
Best Supporting Actress
Catrina Balfe in Belfast
Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog
Marlee Matlin in CODA. (2 Nominations)
Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard
Ariana DeBose in West Side Story
Best Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds in Belfast
Jared Leto in House of Gucci
Bradley Cooper in Licroice Pizza
Kodi Smit McPhee in The Power of the Dog
Troy Kushner in CODA
Adapted Screenplay
Drive My Car. (2 Nominations)
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dune
West Side Story
Original Screenplay
Licorice Pizza
Belfast
King Richard
Being the Ricardos
Tick, Tick, Boom
Cinematography
Belfast
Dune
The Green Knight. (1 Nomination)
The Power of the Dog
Spider-Man No Way Home
Costume Design
House of Gucci
Cruella (2 Nominations)
Spencer
Dune
The French Dispatch
Film Editing
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Don’t Look Up
Belfast
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Production Design
Dune
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley (1 Nomination)
The Tragedy of Macbeth
The French Dispatch. (3 Nominations)
Sound Mixing/Editing
Belfast
Dune
Spider-Man No Way Home
No Time to Die (2 Nominations)
Don’t Look Up
Visual Effects
Dune
The Matrix Ressurections (1 Nomination)
Ghostbusters: Afterlife (1 Nomination)
Shang-Chi and the legend of the ten rings (1 Nomination)
Spider-man no way home
Original Song
Encanto-Dos Orguitas. (2 Nominations)
Just Look Up-Don’t Look Up
Down to Joy-Belfast
No Time to Die-No Time to Die
Be Alive-King Richard
Original Score
Dune-Hans Zimmer
The French Dispatch-Alexandre Desplat
The Last Duel-Harry Gregson Willams
The Power of the Dog-Jonny Greenwood
The Tragedy of Macbeth-Carter Burwell
Makeup/Hairstyling
Dune
The eyes of Tammy Faye
Cruella
House of Gucci
The Suicide Squad (1 Nomination)
Animated Feature
Belle (1 nomination)
Encanto (1 Nomination)
Flee (2 Nominations)
Raya and the last dragon (1 Nomination)
Sing 2 (1 Nomination)
Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul. (1)
The Rescue. (1)
Attica. (1)
Acession. (1)
Procession (1)
International Feature
The Worst Person in the World. (1)
A Hero. (1)
Drive my Car
Flee
The Hand of God (1)
Animated Short Film
Us Again. (1)
Beast/Beastia (1)
Robin, Robin (1)
Nampo. (1)
Mum is pouring rain (1)
Licorice Pizza is not getting 4 nominations. It generally fading away.
It’s generally expanding its movie theater status
Spider-Man no way home is a box office phenomenon and it will not be ignored Black Panther was just some movie And had lower box office results worldwide.
As for the acting races Will Smith will win for King Richard’s Nicole Kidman for being the Ricardos it was Kodi Smitt McPhee will win power of the dog and in Kristen Dunst will win for power of the dog
It has zero chance of winning best picture.
Spider-man has won twice at the oscars, one for spider-man 2 in 2004-2005, and spider-man into the spiderverse in 2018-2019. The franchise has been nominated at least 4 times.
Still isn’t happening
My personal favorite and least favorite movies of 2021
1. No Time to Die- An exciting and thrilling James Bond film with epic spectacle and non-stop action
2. The French Dispactch- A witty comedy that was both art house and entertaining
3. Belfast-A black and white drama about the Irish civil war in 1969
4. Respect-A biopic that’s surpasses and delights the life and times of Aretha Franklin
5. In the Heights-A young group of Hispanic people making there dues and paying there way through life in the upscale neighborhood of Washington Heights, New York
6. Spider-man no way home-how could you ignore a phenomenal blockbuster of this magnitude.
7. West Side Story- Steven Spielberg’s reimagining of the classic best picture winning 1961 musical
8. King Richard-An uplifting sports drama about two tennis players-Venus and Serena Williams
9. The Green Knight-A captivating and visual fantasy you had to watch twice
10. The Last Duel-One of the best jousting and historical epic films I’ve seen since Troy
The Worst
1. GI Joe Snake Eyes Origins-Completely boring remake of the hit 80’s cartoon show
2. Halloween KIlls-A blood bath of kills and craziness
3. Spiral-Pure torture and couldn’t wait til it’s over
4. Escape Room: Tournament of Champions-Teenagers going through a video game premise
5. Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway-Cute but also bitter tasteless
6. Eternals-Marvel cinematic universe’s most boring 2 1/2 hours
7. The Boss Baby 2: Family Business-For the kids but not the adults
8. Separation-Boring thriller
9. The Woman in the Window-Another tasteless horror movie
10. Mortal Kombat-Below average video game action flick.
I liked in the Heights too.
Where is Ruth Nega?
Ruth Negga and Penelope Cruz deserve nominations
Just saw The worst person in the world. Besides International, it should be in the race for Actress and Original Screenplay.
Yes. Another International film who deserves better.
Gucci is probably getting a best pic nom and Jared Leto too, for God’s sake, don’t you dare telling me anything.
Actress, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay for sure!
I loved this movie. Heartbreaking.
Just saw Parallel Mothers. Really liked it. It would be a damn shame if Penelope isn’t nominated but it looks like her chances are slim to none, for whatever reason.
Makes no sense she won Best Actress from LA Critics, NYC Critics, and National Society of Film Critics, ALL 3 of the biggest Critics Awards and yet some how did NOT receive a Critics Choice Nomination, she deserves to be nominated. Baffling!
How many critics choice voters are actually critics?
Critics Choice are filled with the Sasha Stones of the world. People who see a bunch of movies with a bunch of opinions. I.e., not critics.
She didn’t win NYFCC, Lady Gaga did.
re: 2022
Just saw “Scream” (2022) and… surely it won’t be even promoted for anything, but it was FUN. Suspenseful when it needed to be, extremely fun when making fun of the fandom. And with a good analysis of what’s killing Hollywood. A must for any playful cinephile… it’s the rare case of a franchise that I actually have enjoyed almost equally, on all entries (3 was the only one in which I was partially disappointed, but was kind of better than it gets credit to be)… of course 1 and 2 are a bit over 4 and 5, but it is terribly fun, overall
Just saw the king’s daughter-definitely a razzie award contender for next year.
Seems I’ll pawning the kid off at the grandparents tonight…. Hopefully the wife and I can cram in a triple feature of:
1. Being the Ricardos
2. CODA &
3. Tragedy of Macbeth
Then I won’t feel like as much of an Awards movie watching failure lol.
Best Actress (subject to revision) : 1) Tie Jennifer Hudson (RESPECT) and Kristen Stewart (SPENCER) are Equally pristine perfection in their performances. Note: Stewart is not nominated for SAG). Jennifer Hudson AS ARETHA FRANKLIN THE QUEEN OF SOUL DESERVES GREAT RESPECT IN EARNING AN OSACR NOD EQUAL TO THAT OF PRINCESS DIANA SPENCER. 2) Jessica Chastain Sparkles and Shines as Evangelist Wife Tammy Faye Baker (The Eyes of Tammy Faye); 3) Olivia Colman Spellbinding Sociopath Mother of Two Daughters (The Lost Daughter) 4) Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) Solid Sublime Work ; 5) Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) Decent Job; 6)Penelope Cruz Role (Parallel Mothers); Honorable Mentions: 1) Haley Bennett (Cyrano); 2) Tessa Thompson (Passing) and 7) Possible Dark Horse Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) Average Subpar Work, not her best or Award Winning Performance. Like Tom Hanks in Mr. Rogers, she emulated 2 of her previous characters in other films and seemingly resemble Lucille Ball for about an hour. She should not earn an Oscar nod compared to the electrifying performances of the amazing aforementioned individuals listed ahead of her.
Best Foreign Films: 1) Drive My Car (Ryusuke Yamaguchi) Film; 2) A Hero (Ashghar Farhadi Film); 3) Hand of God.
Short list for Best Supporting Actor Open Race: 1) Ciaran Hinds/Troy Kotsur (Belfast CODA) Heartwarming Superb Performances By Both Supporting Actors. Specifically, Hinds and Kotsur Masterfully Delivers; 2) Jared Leto (House of Gucci) Dense Son of Clothing Empire – Comical Delight; 3) Kody Smit-McPhee (Power of the Dog) Sociopath Son Who Cunningly Connects With Uncle Phil. He Lovingly Orchestrates His Demise; 4) Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar); 5) Tie Ben Mendelsohn (Cyrano); Masaki Okada (Drive My Car). Honorable Mentions: 6) Mike Faist (West Side Story); 7) Kelvin Harrison, Jr. (Cyrano); 8) David Alvarez (West Side Story).
My Short list for Best Supporting Actress (subject to revision): 1) Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard); 2) Ann Dowd (Mass) -They will probably remove Ann Dowd because of subject; 3) Ruth Negga (Passing); 4) Ariana DeBose (West Side Story); 5) Kirsten Dunst and/or Caitriona Balfe (Power of the Dog/Belfast). Possible Dark Horses Emma Thompson (Cruella) – she will not make the final cut (she is deserving another Oscar nod, but her character is a Psychopathic Mother in Disney Live-Action) and Martha Plimpton (Mass) – she is eclipsed by fellow noms and her co-star Ann Dowd. Honorable Mention: Marlee Matlin (CODA) Former Best Actress Oscar Winner (Children of a Lesser God) and Rita Moreno Best Supporting Actress Oscar Winner (West Side Story).
Short list for Best Actor (subject to revision): (Tie) 1) Benedict Cumberbatch (Power of the Dog Molested/Raped Rancher Tortured Soul Enraged about His Brother’s Happiness and Everyone Else Chooses to Torment a New Bride/Previous Widow at the Ranch With Devious Consequences) – Dominant Electrifying Performances!); 1) Will Smith (King Richard) – Visionary/Dreamer Father Pushes and Hinders the GOAT of Women’s Tennis and Her Sister, Serena and Venus Williams; 2) Denzel Washington (Tragedy of MacBeth) – Unstable, Unpredictable, King Conspirator Who Is Driven Towards Insanity By Murdering Many Innocents Well Done!); 3) Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) Insecure Soldier who is Madly in Love With long-time beautiful friend Roxanne. Yet, he chooses to obscure himself behind friendship and shadows. Instead, he woos her with profound poetry, impersonating another Suitor. 4) Hidetoshi Nishijima (Drive My Car) Deeply Emotionally Wounded Widower/Thespian Finds Connection Through His Equally Troubled Female Chauffeur Youth Nicely Done, He will not make AMPAS final cut honorable mention for Best Actor; 5-7) Others to consider; 5) Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick, Boom!….), Biopic of Overexerted Composer/Creator of Rent Who Dreams of Broadway and Dies Trying to Make It To Broadway-Decent Acting; 6) Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos); 7) Mahershala Ali (Swan Song); Honorable Mention: 8) Hidetoshi Nishijima (Drive My Car) Deeply Emotionally Wounded Widower/Thespian Finds Connection Through His Equally Troubled Female Chauffeur Youth Nicely Done, He will not make AMPAS final cut honorable mention for Best Actor; 9) Anthony Ramos (In The Heights).
“Hamaguchi’s films have a very rare sort of strength, energy, and gravity. Drive My Car is a pure creative work.” – BONG JOON-HO
oddly enough, the last Japanese film that I would have loved to see nominated for Best Picture is…
… “One cut of the dead”. Every single cinephile in the world (or aspiring filmmaker) should see this one.
So good… The “Joe Bob’s last Drive In” episode capping monologue is inspiring as hell too.
I find it sad that the Academy voters don’t care enough to watch all the films. If you have screeners or screenings, there’s simply no excuse. I don’t have a lot of free time and have still watched Dune, Belfast, Eyes of Tammy Faye, King Richard, Power of the Dog, Dune, most of Coda, Don’t Look Up, Last Duel, House of Gucci, Tragedy of Macbeth, Spencer, Lost Daughter, *Tick Tick Boom, Being the Ricardos, Passing… basically everything in the Oscar mix except the international films that were highly acclaimed, West Side Story, and Licorice PIzza. I hope to catch WSS soon when it comes to HBO Max.
I bet that I have spent more time contemplating my top ten films than some of the Oscar voters. I have 13 films and am still figuring out a final ranking. It’s always hard to balance my favorite, most fun movies (I call them “candy” because they’re easy to watch and entertaining) and those I think may be slower but more of a masterpiece. Right now four out of my top 5 movies of 2021 were those I saw in the theater
1. Eyes of Tammy Faye—-I had a good experience watching this in the theater, only my second time back since the pandemic, and enjoyed my rewatch on HBO Max. I know I’m in the minority. Chastain and Garfield’s performances are my number one in their respective categories, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor. This is where I decided to place the movie even though the artistry might not be as high as others on the list. For example, I would probably not rank its director in my top ten.
2. Spencer—I liked Kristen Stewart’s performance a lot and loved the production design. To me this movie was very entertaining yet also was a high achievement in film.
Great cinematography, costumes, and score. I appreciated Larrain’s mastery and small perrformances like Timothy Spall’s. I watch and read quite a bit about the royals. It doesn’t bother me that it’s an idiosyncratic picture of the family that might not be literally true. I felt that I could like the royal family yet still appreciate this movie. I know that others do not agree.
3. Belfast—-This movie about the importance of family struck a nerve with me, and I felt that the scenes linger in my mind like the dancing. It was heartwarming to me. The ensemble was seamless. Balfe is my #2 in supporting actress behind Blanchett, and Hinds, Dornan, and Hill are in my top 5. I know the knives are out for this one, but to those people, don’t worry about it. My favorite contender never wins BP and probably won’t this time, either. The movies I wanted to win were Social Network, Lincoln/Zero Dark Thirty, Boyhood, Three Billboards…, A Star is Born, Promising Young Woman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. It’s a perfect record of non-success in BP.
4. Last Duel—very well-made movie with a great performance by Jodie Comer. I liked how the same event was shown through multiple perspectives. Ridley Scott had two movies I enjoyed this year, and like Tammy Faye, this one was a combination of entertainment and achievement.
5. House of Gucci—just fun and entertaining. I read the book and was very interested in the subject matter. I’m buying the movie to give to my dad so they can watch. I share Oscar films with them each year, and some years they watch the ceremony just to see how I did in my predictions. I put all of them on an index card. When I won an Oscar contest in the year of “Lincoln,” I gave them all the movies to watch. I thought this cast was stellar, and I like that it got the nominations it did. Best in show was Gaga, and even though Driver didn’t appear to have one of his better performances, I liked his work. Appreciated seeing Irons, Leto, Pacino…
I am going to do my 6-10 later. For the longest time it was Nightmare Alley, Dune, Tick Tick Boom, Being the Ricardos, and In the Heights, but since I saw Macbeth, Passing, and Lost Daughter, I am considering taking out the last three and putting those in.
I loved reading this, especially because some of the “Oscary” films you loved are being crapped on by a lot of people. I loved several of those on your list, too. You know what, ya like what ya like.
Agree about Chastain and Garfield. I really don’t understand why he isn’t in the conversation for supporting actor. I liked him more than any of the sure bets.
“King Richard” opened yesterday in Spain. I like Will Smith, but the story is already teletyped and probably what we’ve seen before in 1,000 TV-films…
… I am going to watch “5cream”.
As a die-hard “Scream” fan (even went and saw the original in a theatre near my house on Halloween last year), I had a BLAST during the new one! Not perfect but a ton of fun!
me as well. It is GREAT. No masterpiece – no that it needed to be – but completely on par with the rest of the franchise… not so much surprised, given how much I loved “Ready or not”, one of the true gems of comedy – horror of the last decade… Arquette was the stand out of the film, by the way…
I thought Arquette was great! He and Courteney really do have great chemistry. I also thought she was great, I’m a fan of hers and I definitely love in Gail Weathers mode. The biggest disappointment for was Melissa Berrera’s wooden block of a performance because I really thought she was great in “In the Heights”.
I thought King Richard was one of the best films of the year it was a message film on a uplifting film and a a competition film
Like last week’s post, Sasha is underrating DRIVE MY CAR. At the very very least it should be an alternate in Director and Screenplay. Maybe even Best Picture
So far we’ve only had a lone director nominee in years of eight best picture nominees. In my opinion, it makes very little sense to have a lone director in a year of ten. This would speak of a really great discrepancy between the directors’ branch and the Academy as a whole. Not impossible, of course, but it’s extremely unlikely. And given the great acclaim Drive My Car has received and the underwhelming response to many big contenders (House of Gucci, Don’t Look Up), I can certainly see Drive My Car as a best picture nominee. After all, it needs a passionate fan base to get in and it certainly has one.
I just watched “The Worst Person in the World” at a Sundance virtual screening and I’m hoping to see “Drive My Car” this week (it just opened here this weekend). Anyone see Trier getting in director over Hamaguchi? “Drive My Car” seems more like a “Burning” to me and “TWPITW” seems more like an “Another Round”. But then again the directors branch nominated Pawlikowski for “Cold War” (richly deserved nomination, what a great film) and Haneke for “Amour” so I don’t know. “Worst Person” just seems (again, haven’t seen “Drive My Car” yet) more accessible while still being excellent. I’d love to see Reinsve and the screenplay nominated (even tho I had some quibbles here and there).
ETA: Also Anders Danielsen Lie should be in contention even tho I was ever so slightly disappointed in that character’s trajectory.
I’d love to see a nod for Trier and both his leads. I loved that movie.
When you say “lone” are you discounting getting a Nomination for International Film? That doesn’t count?
Yes. Lone is all in relation to best picture.
There have been “lone” directors even in fields of 5. The Director’s branch (and often the screenwriter’s) often go their own way.
as it should be. Unless Hamaguchi gets a DGA nom, he – and his film – are possible but on the “alternate” field for anything but International Film, specially since his foreign language competition is full of legends…
drive my car should win best picture.don’t look up is not a good movie.
on the other hand, Don’t Look Up is a film that, the more I think about it… the better it gets, and the more necessary it is.
Don’t look up is just a netflix film, a film for the tv/streaming audience too many netflix movies over the last 3 years. Nothing special
maybe you should actually stop for a minute and de-construct the film and the satire it offers. There are a couple of moments of pure genius – like the exit of Meryl Streep’s character.
“Spider-Man has just beaten Black Panther at the domestic box office even with Blue America stuck at home.”
Great. BP being #2 Marvel movie domestically never felt right because its international boxoffice was lower than that which is rare and shows that, outside of America, it was no cultural phenomenon but just another big dumb movie. With 926M and counting without China, NWH is a global phenomenon, not just an American thing.
Agreed with the statement it’s a fact Spider-Man no way home is a global phenomenon
If Adam McKay gets in ahead of PTA for director, I may never stop throwing up.
It can’t happen this time, surely? If it does, it will be one of the lowest moments in Oscar history.
Good God, I can feel that one coming too.
PTA is not getting in for director. Don’t know about McKay
I believe you, not the expert panel at goldderby.com.
I believe you, not the expert panel at GoldDerby.
Best Picture Oscar Potential: 1) Power Of The Dog; 2) King Richard; 3) The Harder They Fall (Yes, I know they will not be up for Oscar consideration, but it was one of the Year’s Best Cinematic Masterpieces); 4) Cyrano;5) Drive My Car; 6) Belfast – The aforementioned 6 are Exceptional Movies. 7)The Lost Daughter; 8) In The Heights; 9) Coda; 10) Tender Bar; The aforementioned 4 are Great Movies.10) West Side Story; 11) Passing; 12) Encanto (I Love Original Song We Don’t Talk About Bruno/Lin – Manuel Miranda Creative Musical Genius) – These 3 Are Very Good Films. 13) Dune; 14) Sing 2; 14) Respect; 15) Spencer; 16) Raya And The Last Dragon-Decent.
I resisted DLU for a long time because I couldn’t even finish the rancid trailer. But it became a streaming mega blockbuster as you could expect from Leo power, so I relented. Guess what? Flawed af but far more interesting than some flawlessly directed yet completely uninteresting movies such as WSS. Leo was fabulous and too bad that he is fighting for a filler spot because that was another bang-on star turn. While I thought that there were too many characters for the movie’s own good (could have done without Hill, Grande, Perlman, mini subplot about porn cowboy SCOTUS) and most of political satire was cringe (but credit for being an even critique with a sharp focus on big tech/big donor/1% instead of identity politics), the movie was entertaining throughout and the cast had fantastic chemistry. Why did it take so long for Leo/Cate reunion? They were fire! And Cate&Tyler should host a show. They felt authentic. JLaw was great and charismatic, welcome back! But the movie belongs to Leo. What a star, what a performance!
I’d say this has great concept, wonky execution but enough food for though to stand the test of time like Star Wars Prequels (huge fan here). I still think about it and can easily see why it’s such a huge global hit. I wouldn’t mind it as Picture winner. Like I said, it makes you think. Fat chance cause decision seems to be that one of Dog ( crime plot saves it and gives some food for thought), Belfast (nothing to think about) or WSS (absolutely nothing to think about) is going to take the gold. Of course, Dune remains my first pick but they won’t award half a movie.
“WSS (absolutely nothing to think about)”
You can always think about the music! (Among other things, I think the film did a fine job creating a narrative background beyond Romeo&Juliet.)
no thanks! Did nothign for me in the original. Cheesy Broadway tunes are not my thing.
In fact, what I like about it is exactly how they’re, at least for me, something greater than standard Broadway tunes. You can really hear the influence of the great early 20th century classical composers in Bernstein’s music. Lots of dissonance, tritones, and for example the instrumental during Cool is phenomenally complex. And even the simple, cheesy songs surprise you musically in some way. It’s astonishing work, easily beyond the level I would expect from a musical.
when you put it that way, than I agree. I’m not versed in music beyond listening to new hits and liking movie scores but you make a great case!
Similar thoughts here.
“the last thing you want to be called if you’re someone like that is a racist”
Does anyone remember this gem? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5284cb16dabc8ec1a7ecf2e6d9351fdab12ff5c298949ad783addea55a0acb46.jpg
And then the Academy did the stupidest thing ever: it opened animated feature for voting by the Academy’s entire membership. From years of nominees such as Chico & Rita, A Cat In Paris, The Red Turtle, and the lovely When Marnie Was There, we got … The Baby Boss and other similar nominees. The category turned extremely predictable and mainstream, with a lone arthouse nominee per year.
And now it seems we’re getting at least 4 CGI American movies (3 of them from Disney) and MAYBE a single 2D one from Europe in that category.
I now read this voter’s stupid and extremely hateful comments:
1. He loved American Sniper, of course. A big Clint fan.
2. He thought it was funny to call Cotillard that Gutillard girl. He didn’t even bother seeing the performance.
3. He voted for Duvall in The Judge and he LOVED the movie. Meh.
4. He voted for American Sniper in adapted screenplay.
5. He didn’t bother watching a single foreign language film nominee. Voted anyway for whatever looked cool.
6. He didn’t bother watching a single documentary but voted for the one with plenty of commercials on TV.
7. The statement about two of the best animated feature film nominees that year is pure BS.
It is BS, but then again quite a few people in the Academy might think that way.
And the following year they had Woody and Buzz Lightyear present the category for Best Animated Film, because you know, “AnImAtIoN iS fOr KiDs” (never mind that they had an R-RATED movie nominated in there).
https://youtube.com/watch?v=2-wowSRBfrY
well, at least he vindicated the Best Film of 2014 (alongside Stranger by the Lake and Snowpiercer), which was The LEGO Movie (one of the very few XXIst offerings that deserves to be in the conversation for a top 100 of all time (I personally would add Borat, Hero, Mad Max: Fury Road as others worth of consideration… I’d say that for any film of the last 20 years, to be worth being in consideration, they should have done something really, really revolutionary, or in Hero’s case, the film is just perfection… or as close to it, as anything can be).
The LEGO Movie should have been nominated for…
Picture (losing to Snowpiercer)
Director (losing to Bong Joon-ho)
Supp. Actor (voice work, I know) Will Arnett – so iconic, he got his own spin-off!
Adapted Screenplay (I’d give it to it, ex-aequo with Snowpiercer)
Score
Song – Everything is Awesome (its only real nom, and it should have won!)
Film Editing
Cinematography
Production Design
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
VFX
Animated Feature
wins: Animated Feature and Song at the very least. Production Design, Cinematography, I’d dare to say it would have been awesome, they are excellent… it felt real stop motion for the most of the time.
In 2014, is the only year I have a three-way tie ex-aequo for Best Picture, with those three films I mentioned… runner up (and almost 4 way tie) was The Grand Budapest Hotel. The salomonic decision when forced to say just 1 Best Film of 2014 is name Snowpiercer for Picture, The LEGO Movie for Animated and Stranger by the Lake for Foreign.
Snowpiercer? Come on
More and more voters are actually getting to see DRIVE MY CAR and word of mouth spreading out each day. As for momentum itself, DMC easily surpassing some other BP contenders.
The thing is whether it can get a DGA nod. If it does, it’s a top 3 (or top 5) contender. If it doesn’t, I expect it to receive the Amour treatment (with actors being the exception; after all, I can’t see the Academy going for the film’s gorgeous lead, as brilliant as he might be).
BO should be inflation adjusted. Titanic surely would be close to #1?
It’s frankly hilarious that the same person who stanned relentlessly for the film that no-one saw, The Hurt Locker over the box office monster Avatar, is now insisting Spider-Man get nominated.
And the same person who insisted Bigelow had to win because she was a woman now complains the Zhao won only because she was a woman. Ok I missed the Asian bit but you know what I mean.
And now Parasite only one because 1917 was too white.
And the same person who posted left wing rants (which I and many here agreed with) now posts right wing ones.
Very surreal.
2019 was such a bad year, Hollywood movie-wise save for Endgame, that the Parasite win may as well have been a protest vote by the Academy at how much the U.S. film industry struck out that year.
I thought 2019 was one of the best years in a long time in terms of the quality of the films contending. There were several films that year that would have been the best picture of 2020 or 2021. I understand that that’s a matter of person taste, though.
But you can’t deny that 2019 was the best year in a long time in terms of the popularity of the contending films. 5 of the 9 films nominated for BP grossed at least $100M in the US and 6 grossed $200M worldwide, and you also had Knives Out making tons of money while inexplicably being left out of most major categories.
Parasite is still the only right choice the academy has made in a decade. It is such a mind-blowingly excellent film. There’s been a lot of good films since it came out two years ago. But nothing that has wowed me like it and that does include the retread of into the spiderverse that is Spider Man. Which i found totally mediocre.
This. Parasite was/is a stone cold masterpiece. The Coens make the same film in English and all the fainting couch losers would be falling all over themselves claiming that they called it first.
Some people will always think foreign language films are foreign and have no place in American cinema and reading subtitles are an unnecessary inconvenience. Those people make me kind of ill.
For someone who spends all his time trolling right wingers on right wing websites Feeling Blue is awfully against foreigners lol
Interesting that you mention the Coens because I think Parasite is one of the few BP winners that unites the general public and film critics. The only other two are The Lord of the Rings and Coens No Country for Old Men.
I don’t love Parasite as much as I want to. Bong Joon-Ho wasn’t as hopeful as he could’ve been or as searching. I feel like the film’s symbolsm of rise and fall is a perfect match for how I feel the film went. Maybe the descent was inevitable. I can’t rate it highly as a character study and it’s themes seems to Peter out and crash on itself. However, as a thriller it’s an absolute and instant classic.
Really? Best foreign film, yes without doubt. Best *picture*? No, and it will always be no with me. Its selection further greased the skids of the decline of the Oscars into irrelevance. Still, domestically, among the 10 least-seen BP’s ever.
Parasite is the #31 top rated film on IMDb with 708k ratings. And that is not an arthouse crowd.
But Parasite isn’t your typical arthouse film. It’s a a fantastic thriller. It’s one of the few films I have seen that unites the critics and the general movie going public.
It seems that your problem is not with Parasite. Your problem is with Foreign. No one can help you if that’s your problem. Even American studios don’t make films just for the domestic box office anymore. Get on with the program. It’s your loss.
People barely talk about 1917 anymore and it’s only been 2 years. While Parasite is often cited as the best Best Picture Winner in the past 10 years.
They should be talking about 1917, though, it’s a great movie… (As is Parasite.)
The left wing rants you’re referring to were from a week and a half ago, right? Anyone who doesn’t love JHud is a racist.
I’m pretty sure Gone With the Wind is still #1 if you adjust for inflation.
Gone with the Wind will probably always be number one.
Keep your voice down. Hollywood is ashamed of Gone with the Wind.
Well, racism used to be popular in the past, you know. It’s quite right to judge a film based on modern standards.
No punt intended there. 1939 was the greatest year in film, same thing when Star Wars came out in 1977
I just wish that same support for Spiderman NWH had been around in 2019 when Avengers: Endgame roared, and I don’t believe it got any nomination except for VFX.
Avengers: Endgame was a yawn.
It was an entertaining piece of cotton candy cinema. I enjoyed it, it was fun, no where near the best superhero film, much less the best of the year
I agree with Endgame being a yawn and it’s overrated. NWH is entertaining and roaring with popularity
I was starting to think I was the only one who remembered all that…I’m feeling a little more confident in my memory to know I’m not. (Wasn’t there someone here, whether from AD or a commenter, who was pushing the line that Gabourey Sidibe HAD to win Best Actress for Precious, because she’s (a) Black, and, what was even worse, (b) fat, which meant she’d probably never work again? While she hasn’t been in Oscar contention lately, she’s been working steadily ever since then, and she strikes me as someone with sufficient self-confidence that she would have been rightfully appalled had she found out someone was running a pity campaign on her behalf.
If Belfast had won GG BP we would be hearing how this made it the undisputed frontrunner for BP. It’s stunning that TPOTD’s win is being dismissed by many & not even seen as a Belfast stumble.
Good predictions, though I definitely don’t buy Spider-Man getting in and am also skeptical on Gucci though that’s more plausible of the two. Tick tick Boom, The Lost Daughter, and Macbeth all feel slightly more plausible to me.
“We on the left have become undone by our collective fear.” The author who wrote this is about as much a leftist as Madonna is a virgin
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/562b59665db84893a60f0351a4f5bbf7123d308ae01a18af33a581e9c172eb8f.gif
What are you saying? That thinking identity politics is overblown disqualifies you from being on the left? I worked on democratic campaigns for president and 2 senators last year in Georgia and North Carolina and I shouldn’t be exiled from the party. This is more important.
When you constantly berate one group while offering no condemnation on the other side, it brings out the wolf in sheep’s clothing.
I would argue we all know how awful the right has been in recent years so as obnoxious as Sasha is a little condemnation of the lunatic left fringes is welcome in my book
I think advocating for Republicans to win elections comes pretty close to disqualifying a person from being on “the left”, which may be what Chase is talking about.
As far as I know, Sasha is a Democrat who strongly believes that they have been problematic in the last few years in trying to hold their ground.
Sasha has literally told people to elect Republicans.
I don’t think she has conservative policy views, though. I think, like most Republicans, she’s mostly stopped caring about policy and is mainly focused on spite and vindictiveness towards people on “the left” who were mean to her or who have different ideas about culture than she does.
Instead of rehashing all of my old responses to this copypasta, I’ll just rehash a couple of them:
1. Black Panther was nominated for BP in 2018. Joker was nominated in 2019. Did that have any effect on public perception and TV ratings? If not, why would nominating Spiderman be any different?
2. The movies haven’t changed and the Oscars haven’t changed. The audience has changed. The commentary from people like Sasha Stone has changed.
If Annie Hall or Kramer vs. Kramer or Ordinary People or Driving Miss Daisy or American Beauty came out this year, they would be called “small arthouse films that regular Americans have barely heard of.” If In The Heat Of The Night or Dances with Wolves or Platoon or The Deer Hunter came out today, they’d be called “left wing political preaching that regular Americans are sick of”. The Last Emperor would be called pro-PRC Communist propaganda. I don’t want to think about what Sasha’s favorite political commentators would say about Midnight Cowboy.
Incidentally, it’s funny to hear the anti-SJW crowd bemoan that “you couldn’t make Blazing Saddles today”. Blazing Saddles has a clear political message about how the wealthy use racism to manipulate poor white people, and includes a joke that’s just one of the main characters saying that rural white Americans are “morons”. If you made Blazing Saddles today conservatives would cite it as evidence that leftists are ruining comedy.
These articles aren’t really about movies and they aren’t really about politics, though. Whenever I see these I’m reminded of an article someone sent me a while ago:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1411755375863517189.html
He’s talking about politics, but it’s really about the sickness that’s infecting every corner of American culture, including the movie industry.
I preferred the oscars when only five pictures were nominated. Have stopped watching it since. But catch the acting speeches on youtube the next day.
I don’t think the general public or the celebrities give much value to the Oscars anymore. It’s become so politicized you can’t enjoy the show anymore. I don’t know who to blame, but I used to get really caught up in the best picture, best actress, etc. But I’ve only seen about 2 potential nominees this year and really don’t care about any of the movies this year, or probably next.
I’m not in the business (ex-movie critic for a local newspaper), but I was an awards groupie. If I miss the shows this year, don’t care.
Who really cares about the Oscars apart from us awards junkies, really?
Middle America, allegedly
Yeah, middle America is going tune into the Oscars just because of Spider-Man nomination, forgetting Liberal Hollywood will be taunting Republicans and Conservatives in their acceptance speech.
I agree with this. I used to be an oscars junkies. But it used to be the only thing on when we were kids. It was like a mandatory watch. Now the number of choices we have is endless. Also i have been exposed to much more foreign cinema through streaming. That realization that the best picture winner often goes to something so middle of the road drew me away, then they expanded the best picture category and that list always ends up being three good movies at best and then a bunch of mediocre ones. It all became a slog. Last year i was a video game tournament while the oscars were on. It was interactive. It wasn’t just me watching some tv show that peaked at the 20th Century.
I don’t think it’s necessarily even a political thing (as perfectly good Carhartt’s clothing is being burned while I speak…); it’s more than the kind of movies Oscar voters support aren’t necessarily the kind of movies that the general public, or at least the largest percentage of them, wants to see. If you’re going to spend $10+ per ticket, probably another $10ish for a drink and maybe popcorn/a candy bar, maybe more money for parking if you have to drive in, plus you actually have to leave the house…your average American isn’t going to do that unless they can metaphorically and literally get a big bang out of what they’re going to see; otherwise, if they want to see something more “adult,” they’ll catch it on cable or streaming. I could go on about how messaging re: the public and “prestige” films has been mainly along the lines of alienating the former by telling them that the latter is “above” them, but that’s a subject for a whole different rant, along with TV these days handling adult-oriented/more complex films better than the Movie Industrial Complex, or the fact that most movies are either $100M+ blockbusters or a much smaller and less expensive picture, with nothing in the middle, but you get the idea…
“It’s always the same movie”
This makes me question why advocate for Spiderman, then, since that movie is also exactly the same as about 5 other movies released this last year alone
Yeah but this Spider-Man ripped off Into the Spider-Verse so it’s special
I know Gold Derby is not indicative of Oscar voters, but there is 0 passion or interest there for Belfast.
No of post on threads:
Belfast: 64
WSS: 420
TPOTD: 1300
HOG is the most popular there (by far), there’s just no passion for Belfast.
I know both Sasha & NBP have argued that there’s “quiet” love for Belfast, but the quietness is not something we’ve seen with any recent BP winners.
“I know Gold Derby is not indicative of Oscar voters”. You should’ve have stopped right there. Also, isn’t this the same group that has Kristen Stewart winning? And last year was all in on Amanda Seyfried?
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d824d1919f42264a34807dbddfbae4b4295fba01489be3f8f48572a5cff4509a.gif
Please re-read my post. My point is about lack of passion not predictions.
Yes, passion by people that have absolutely zero say or impact on how the Academy will vote.
Show me the passion for Belfast, anywhere?
Show me gravity.
I am not quite there to predict it, but I could actually see it only getting one acting nom which would be surprising since many are saying it will get three.
It happened at SAG. And it missed GG BP which many were predicting. However, it seems you can point out it’s underperformance without triggering people.
1. If box office is to be the driving element for Oscar nods, why not champion Fast and the Furious. That series has made over 8 Billion dollars.
2. A person can suck no matter what political party they belong to. They can suck no matter where they live. No matter what their job is. Not a left-right thing. A person’s character is solely determined by their own choices and nothing more. No one has a monopoly on suck, and no one has a monopoly on friendliness. I’m from Indiana originally, and some of my closest friends still live there. And some of the most mindlessly provincial and hostile people I’ve ever known live there. I went to a high school with kids from wealthy families, and some of those kids grew up to be some of the most paranoid and sneeringly resentful people I’ve ever known. You grow up with the world handed to you yet you think a guy getting a welfare check affects your life in any way shape or form? Seriously? Indiana had nothing to do with how they turned out. They chose to be that way. This utterly binary political construct we’ve seen take hold on this site since 2020 is almost comically reductive.
3. By the way, what exactly is ideological about the three leading contenders, Dog, WSS, Belfast? I’m hard pressed to see what the issue is here, no sane person would accuse any of those films to be virtue signaling.
4. Oscar voters make their choices for silly reasons? The hell you say.
5. Let’s finally be real, the overwhelming majority of the winners on Oscar night will make stammering speeches thanking their agents and co-workers, but the next morning the usual crowd of right wing chuds will tell their followers that every winner recited passages from Noam Chomsky while waving Black Lives Matter flags.
6. Telling people how much you dislike them isn’t going to change their minds, in fact it will harden them. Persuasive Essay Writing 101.
I wrote similarly just now, a long post on the State of the Race article from a day or two ago. Maybe I’ll post over here too.
Please do.
Also point 6!!!!! Lesson for everyday life.
Damn right. I’m listening to my old Madness records to start the weekend right. Bari Weiss probably would hate them.
Should I read it? I usually come straight to the comments section and reply via them. I may reply to it later if I read and think a reply is required. Usually it isn’t, I feel.
If you read the weekly “J’Accuse” section of the post, you can understand some of my irritation.
I understand, yes.
Thank you, Pete, for being such a bastion of sanity on this site, and thanks to all the others who keep this comments section so stimulating. As someone who used to be friendly with Sasha, it’s been so upsetting to watch her turn into a right-wing reactionary. The comments are what keep me coming to this site though – it’s so nice to see everyone push back against her nonsense.
Hey, you know who else is from Indiana?
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3be551767e027a0cbd0f43d32676ae63e4ba690a46eb9f5b50f360efd450a4dd.gif
And David Letterman
“1. If box office is to be the driving element for Oscar nods, why not champion Fast and the Furious. That series has made over 8 Billion dollars.”
I think because the films in question over the years for possible BP contention not only made a ton of $$, but received very good reviews and contained elements of filmmaking that could possibly merit nominations outside of BP, as well.
“There is a huge, elite audience for fine films. When you are in a crowd of 20 million people, it is hard to imagine you are actually part of a fairly small minority.”
I think this view misses the point.
There is nothing else left but 1. fine films that only a minority cares about, 2. Marvel films that even fans don’t think belong at the Oscars, and 3. TV shows. That’s it.
All the classical, well-told stories, what resemble the big studio films of the past, are on the TV side. If it’s made as a well-told series, everybody watches it. If it’s a well-told story on film, nobody watches it. That is how it is. The series have the Emmys for themselves, Marvel doesn’t belong at the Oscars, so we’re left with the fine films, and the small minority who cares about them.
p.s. Nobody warned me that Licorice Pizza is as brilliant as it is, this is the strongest film year in forever.
Right on the money here. Studios are more interested in investing in a $200 million superhero/franchise movie that *might* make them $1 billion, rather than a $20-$50 million drama/comedy/romance/whatever that has a higher chance of getting them $200-$500 million. It’s basically akin to gambling.
And this studio interference for the sake of greed (alongside the internet/streamers effect of siloing us and dismantling the monoculture) is what has caused this “shift” in Best Picture noms, not “the elite Left” or whatever strawman of the week we’re yelling at.
I agree with Licorice pizza. Two weeks later, still in shock.
Very thorough. Thank you for your daily articles. 🙂
I am so confused. Just two days ago Sasha updated her predictions on Gold Derby and had Tragedy of Macbeth getting a Best Pic nom…and today in this piece she says ‘the alts are quite clear to me’ and Macbeth is not even mentioned.
Then to further confuse me, on Gold Derby she has Coen getting a Best Director nom…but again not even mentioned here. WTF?
“Naturally, my friend voted enthusiastically for Parasite the following year because not only was it an excellent film, but it was also an International Feature like ROMA was, and it gave her a chance not to have to read the headlines the following day that said “Academy picks all white winners in all major categories” — which is exactly what would have happened had, say, 1917 won Picture and Director, along with the all-white acting winners. Headlines that year would have been brutal.”
Exactly, that’s why this is the age of the asterisk
Because someone’s “friend” said so. Ok.
Maybe said friend voted for Parasite because she genuinely thought it was the best film that year? And yes, most of Hollywood would rather not be called out as racists, but I doubt that was the only reason Parasite did so well; white guilt will only go so far in an Oscar race. It would be great to have another Black actress win for Best Actress (or someone from another minority as well), but don’t vote for someone just because you feel bad–vote for them because you truly believe theirs was the best work.
I have the sneaking suspicion that what happened last year was that a lot of people were convinced that everyone else was planning to vote for Chadwick and Viola, figured those wins were secure, and then decided to plug in the people they personally liked. Oops…trying to out-maneuver Academy voters is always a bad idea, and that time there was plenty of egg to go around for plenty of faces, not the least being the award show’s producers. (That’s the second major fuckup ending of an Oscar broadcast in the last, what, 5 years? Wonder what the third will be like?…) In the end, just vote for the person you personally want to see win, and let the chips fall; they will or won’t win, but it might be more honest, and it would eliminate the “asterisk” issue that some people work themselves up over.
I don’t think people were worried about being called racist last year bc there were 9 of 20 actors of color and 2 won. If it was a year like 2019, there is a palpable fear of backlash and that’s wrong. It literally is the only thing the entertainment press writes about, so if we want people to stop affirmative actioning people and taking away the integrity of the vote, we should support Sasha Stone.
I don’t know what voters were really thinking in 2019 with Parasite vs 1917 because her theory makes perfect sense.
Absolutely rubbish with zero proof to back up such claims. It’s as ridiculous as calling the Academy racists. Alhough there’s a historical evidence that they predominantly prefer films by people who look like them.
Any chance Tragedy of Macbeth sneaks in via Denzel? One of the more visually exciting of this year’s crop.
This should be a front runner. It is a gorgeous film. True artistic expression and Denzel surpasses the Academy. He is a pantheon of gods now.
Yes if Ted lasso Can win Emmys the tragedy of Macbeth if could win an Oscar
Posting this here, cause I also posted this on the State of the Race article from a day or so ago. It’s relevant here too!
Action:
1. The Oscar’s didn’t get small—saying that is very misleading. Taking out last years mess, since 2009 over half the movies nominated made $100mill+. Of course there are always your small movies that make it in every year, but there are more often than not movies that did “well to great” box office. This means most of the movies nominated are often ones that lots of people went to see! Both sides of the coin are always represented when it comes to what’s nominated. Your little movies that could, your mildly successful, and your big box office makers are always in the mix. That, I feel is a pretty wide variety of tastes and achievements, and I feel that’s how it should be represented in any given year. So it’s misleading to say that the movies that get in are all niche little movies that no one knows about.
2. Just because a movie makes a load of money, doesn’t mean it should be nominated for best picture. Just because it was popular doesn’t equal greatness! If that’s the case every fast and furious, Star Wars, Harry Potter, Transformers would need to be included (not saying all these movies are bad, HUGE HP nerd). There are movies that achievement in film making and acting meet up with big box office and come in to play at Oscars. I feel Sasha is seeing black and white, and not seeing grey. There is a whole lot of grey—and it is represented almost every year with a good mix of films that made money and some that don’t. That’s how it should be.
3. If you think that the Oscars were ever for “everybody” what rock have you been under? Oscars and film awards are all created by and for themselves. People and critics may help push them or make films pop up on their radar…..but to say that Oscars use to be for everyone is flat out BS. Film and awards lovers get swept up in all the talk and the glam of it all and think it’s for us, but that’s not reality. The Oscar’s have proven over and over that they like what they like and don’t really care what anyone out of their little bubble thinks.
4. The rise of streaming has changed how we view film and even TV. If they want to play the ratings game and base the success of the Oscars on how many view the ceremony, they will fail. People don’t watch live TV like they use to. I certainly don’t. I don’t even have cable—just streaming services. This is a perfect time to pivot. STREAM THE OSCARS. Or some sort of multiple platform situation that covers all sorts of fun and cool things all at once. They need to start catering this event for people who ACTUALLY CARE!! I think last years ratings were probably close to the true number of people that legitimately care. I don’t expect there to be a significant boost in ratings this year either. Soooo again, make it a celebration for those of us who want to watch!!! That’s how you save the Oscars—for US.
5. I’m so over right wing and left wing political crap. There is so much that just is missed because of it. What happened to open minds? What happened to common decency? COME TO THE CENTER PEOPLE! It’s the only way for progress.
End scene.
Great Post. I agree with all the points.
OK, here’s a list I’d like to compile, what’s the most star-studded cast of past 2 years based on Oscar nominations. I’m not going to count on IMDB so this is some guesswork here. Please correct me!:
41 Don’t Look Up: Meryl Streep (22), Cate Blanchett (7), Mark Rylance (1), Leonardo DiCaprio (6), Jennifer Lawrence (4), Timothee Chalemet (1), Jonah Hill (2)
24 French Dispatch: Frances McDormand (6), Saorise Ronan (4), Benicio del Toro (2), Christophe Waltz (2), Tilda Swinton (1), Adrian Brody (1), Willem DaFoe (4), Edward Norton (4), Bill Murray (1)
21 Nightmare Alley: Cate Blanchett (7), Bradley Cooper (4), Willem DaFoe (4), Mary Steenburgen (1), Rooney Mara (2), Richard Jenkins (2) David Strathairn (1)
15 House of Gucci: Al Pacino (9), Adam Driver (2), Lady Gaga (1), Selma Hayek (1), Jeremy Irons (1), Jared Leto (1)
15: Woman in the Window: Amy Adams (6), Julianne Moore (5), Gary Oldman (3), Jennifer Jason Leigh (1)
14 Tragedy of MacBeth Denzel Washington (8) Frances McDormand (6)
13 Hillbilly Elegy Glenn Close (7)*, Amy Adams (6)
*Close had 7 at the time the movie premiered
Dune: Javier Bardem (3),
11 Ammonite Kate Winslet (7), Saoisre Ronan (4)
10 The Little Things Denzel Washington (8), Jaret Leto (1), Rami Malek (1)
9 Licorice Pizza Sean Penn (5), Bradley Cooper (4)
9 American Traitor: Trial of Axis Salley: Al Pacino (9)
9 Glorias: Julianne Moore (5), Bette Middler (2), Timothy Hutton (1), Alicia Vikander (1)
8 Being the Ricardos: Nicole Kidman (4), Javier Bardem (3), JK SImmons (1)
I think you should count their directors too
how do you propose making that a stat?
You can add one for Toni Collette on “Nightmare Alley”.
Nightmare Alley will be snubbed at the Oscar’s It came out the day Spider-Man No way home came out nightmare AlleY was buried to the ground over the holiday season. I could remember when cold Mountain came out with lord of the rings return of the King Cold Mountain was flopping
I wasn’t suggesting she is getting nominated for “Nightmare Alley” (I haven’t seen it). They were listing all of the Oscar noms for these films’ cast members. They left off Toni Collette, who was nominated for “Sixth Sense”. Sorry if that wording was weird.
At this point we’re all just spinning our wheels….it’s time for the nominations/PGA/DGA and to get on with this race. For kicks, here’s my winners.
Best Picture
CODA
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Actor
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom
Supporting Actress
Ann Dowd, Mass
Supporting Actor
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Adapted Screenplay
CODA
Original Screenplay
Barb & Star Go to Vista Del Mar
Cinematography
Dune
Costumes
Cruella
Editing
Dune
Production Design
Dune
Sound
Dune
Visual Effects
Dune
Makeup and Hairstyling
Dune
Original Score
Dune
Original Song
Be Alive from “King Richard”
Animated Feature
Luca
I wish your picks for Best Actress, Actor and Supporting Actress would turn out to be the winners at The Oscars as well 🙂 I’d give my personal Oscar for Best Supporting Actor to the incredible Jason Isaacs for Mass but Troy Kotsur is also a very good pick.
I can’t remember Troy Kostur in Coda
I have a lot more to see (to mention a few of the big ones, I should probably be able to see Spencer, Belfast, Red Rocket, Petite Maman, The Matrix Resurrections and Nightmare Alley before the Oscars but it’s starting to look like I won’t be able to see Licorice Pizza, The Souvenir Part 2, The Worst Person in the World or Cyrano for a few months) but at the moment:
Picture: Memoria
Director: Apitchatpong Weerasethakul (Memoria)
Original Screenplay: Bergman Island
Adapted Screenplay: Drive My Car
Actress: Tilda Swinton (Memoria)
Actor: Oscar Isaac (The Card Counter)
Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Supporting Actress: Gaby Hoffman (C’mon C’mon)
Edting: The Velvet Underground
Cinematography: West Side Story
Production Design: Last Night in Soho
Costume Design: Last Night in Soho
Original Score: The Power of the Dog
Visual Effects: The Green Knight
Sound Design: Memoria
Makeup and Hairstyling: Titane
At the moment (only Nightmare Alley and Parallel Mothers, of my most anticipated films, not yet seen), I’m at
Picture: The Power of the Dog
Director: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Actor: Benedict Cumbetbatch, The Power of the Dog
Actress: Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Supporting Actress: Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza
Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
Cinematography: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Costume Design: Dune
Editing: West Side Story
Production Design: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Sound: Memoria
Visual Effects: Dune
Makeup and Hairstyling: Dune
Original Score: Dune
Original Song: No Time to Die
Foreign Language Film: The Hand of God
and some added MTV-esque categories
Best Scene: Finishing the Rope (The Power of the Dog)
Best Couple: Licorice Pizza
Best Child Performance: Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon
Biggest Surprise: C’mon C’mon
Biggest Disappointment: The French Dispatch
Special Award for Achievement in Singing: Ansel Elgort and Rachel Zegler
Best West Side Story song: Maria
Best Original Music Composition: Crucifix, Spencer (Music from the Dancing Scene)
I am going to change my prediction of Best Picture. I now think the Power of The Dog is the favourite for BP. The reason, and this might counterintuitive, is because of SAG. Belfast got Ensemble while The Power of The Dog missed. That’s a big boost for Belfast and a big blow for The Power of The Dog. We know SAG Ensemble miss can really hurt a film and massively lower chances of winning BP. But there are stats bigger than SAG Ensemble and most obvious stats are, of course, Oscar nominations. Missing major stats can be fatal and could redress SAG problem. However, I don’t expect either Belfast or The Power of The Dog to miss any big stats, which means Belfast has the advantage due to SAG Ensemble. But the crucial thing, for me, is that winning beats nomination, so I always judge what a film can win or is likely to win. And in that sense I’m wondering what a BP winner has to win. It needs to win more than two. Belfast can’t win just BP with Original Screenplay (the only major categories it’s favourite to win). Belfast needs to win another major besides Original Screenplay and Hinds in Supporting actor is the best chance by far. Kodi Smit-McPhee has strengthed his status as favourite in Supporting Actor by winning Golden Globes and by being nominated by SAG.
Unfortunately, Hinds didn’t win GG and worst still by missing SAG Belfast’s hopes of winning BP have shrunk massively. As I said, winning BP with just one more award is almost impossible and only Spotlight has done that since the early days of the Oscars. Winning with just two is a bigger hurdle than missing SAG Ensemble. And as we have seen SAG Ensemble stat has become less of a deal breaker in recent years than it was a few years ago. Still important, but less fatal than before. But winning BP with just one more is a lot harder. The Power of The Dog is going to win BD and Best Supporting Actor and probably Adapted Screenplay. It’s very difficult for a film to win all three major categories and not win Best Picture. It can happen as it did with The Pianist and Traffic, but the main contender must be strong in other categories and/or have great narrative. Even more so if it also takes home Cinematography (I think that will likely go to Dune along with Filn Editing) and Score.
How is Hinds its best chance? Hinds was snubbed by SAG. He lost the Globe. How will he gain momentum? BAFTA alone won’t do it. You completely forget that while The Power of the Dog, a film with a very small ensemble, missed ensemble, it got all its leads nominated. At the same time, Belfast missed two expected nods in supporting actor.
And while The Pianist and Traffic lost best picture after winning directing, screenplay, and acting, both films won prior to the preferential ballot’s introduction.
That’s it’s best chance even if that chances aren’t great.
Come on, Hinds isn’t winning without the SAG nomination! Balfe is obviously its best chance at an acting win… (Which of course is not a great chance. But it’s not zero. No locks this early in the race.)
Yes, we might as well rule out any acting win for Belfast. And that puts it in a precarious position.
At this point, while I feel that Hinds has the one-up on getting the nom over Dornan … Dornan has been campaigning quite a bit and Hinds not so much. I just can’t get a grip on if both make it, both miss, Hinds gets in only, or Dornan gets in only.
“winning BP with just one more award is almost impossible and only Spotlight has done that since the early days of the Oscars.”
Before Spotlight did it, people thought it was impossible… 🙂 Even though I kept telling them about how several movies had already managed it in the previous preferential era in the 1930’s-1940’s and about how it made perfect sense for things like these to happen from time to time with a preferential ballot in use for Best Picture…
But that would be in close race, which doesn’t appear to be the case right now. I would probably still got the Dog but it would make it more interesting if Belfast won one of the major three guilds.
It’s not a close race because Dog won critics awards and the Globe? Those are not predictive at all… Meanwhile, it missed SAG Ensemble. I get the argument that it’s still ahead in spite of that, but not the notion that it’s somehow a big favorite. Of course, if Belfast wins nothing big, it’s clear. But I’m assuming it does. In which case this will most certainly be a close race, in terms of the stats – and logically speaking – until the very end. Not to mention Dog should really struggle with the preferential ballot…
I guess what I’m saying is that The Power of the Dog is not The Revenant and Belfast is no Spotlight or, for that matter, The Big Short. Spotlight and The Big Short were both compelling films that needed to be rewarded, which is what makes the Academy very motivated to honour such films. It’s a very real possibility that the closest battle over Best Picture might have been between those two and TR might have been third (its under performance on the night seems to indicate that was the case). If that was the case, it means either film would have won Best Picture with just Screenplay. It’s such an unusual year and tits difficult to use it as a real precedent rather than a fluke and that things just fell into place for Spotlight. I think it’s unreliable to think Belfast could be another Spotlight when Spotlight had so much goodwill going for it and it also won big critics awards. I can see goodwill towards Branagh and that could nap him Original Screenplay, to detriment of PTA, but I don’t see how that translates to a Best Picture win.
The stats also strongly suggest it might have been between Spotlight and The Big Short – although it’s somewhat unclear, especially given the recent evidence we’ve gotten that AFTRA has altered the strength of the SAG snub stat. The Power of the Dog is stronger than The Revenant in the stats area, for sure, although, on the other side, logically, as a preferential winner, I don’t see why it would be. But Belfast is stronger than Spotlight so far (didn’t miss ACE, actually won a Globe, and a big one, etc.). Logically, it’s unclear between the two. A feel-good family drama with social themes might be just as likely a pick for the Academy as a serious, reserved issues movie. Or they might not be won over by it and think it’s less important. Who knows?! That’s why I prefer to just use the stats…
Major critics prizes are simply statistically irrelevant, they help with image, but about as many movies that win none of those win BP as those that do… Green Book, The Shape of Water, Birdman, Argo, The King’s Speech, in the modern preferential era. More examples before. As for 2 or fewer Oscars for BP winners, don’t forget there are further examples of this in preferential years from the 1930’s and 1940’s (when there really weren’t that many categories not yet in play compared to those that Oscars are handed out for today, just a handful): Rebecca (BP+cinematography), You Can’t Take It with You (BP+BD), Mutiny on the Bounty (just BP, and this with 8 nominations in total, two more than Spotlight and potentially more than Belfast, as well – by the way, You Can’t Take It with You had 7 nominations and Rebecca had a whopping 11). The preferential makes these things more likely. A lot more likely, if you consider how much more often movies win BP with just 3 total wins, as well, in preferential years. I pointed this out as an argument for Spotlight in its year and very few people took me seriously…
Ii don’t see any evidence that the preferential ballot makes these small winners more likely. I believe it’s expanded ballot for Best Picture that’s the cause as it puts more focus on the other nominees instead of just focusing on the two or three frontrunners. The only case people can makke, as an excuse for why it lost, is La La Land. But La La Land mirrors Brokeback Mountain and the latter lost in a plural ballot. And going further back, you can say Saving Private Ryan did the same. And even Appollo 13 won the triple crown and still lost to Braveheart. I believe it’s the expanded Best Picture which puts more focus on other nominees and that leads to spreading the wealth, as it were. It does not make sense that the preferential ballot affects all the other ballots which are plural.
Of course, doesn’t matter which of the two it is, since they both came back simultaneously and both are still in effect. 🙂 And if you’re right, this makes it even more likely for low-count winners to happen moving forward, since now we’ll again have 10 a year, as opposed to 8 or 9 before this, and the more there are, the greater the effect should be.
Those races you mention are all similar, indeed, although there are some differences. (Different key snubs, no snubs in the case of SiL vs. SPR.) I agree most of the close preferential showdowns we’ve had would have gone down the same regardless of the voting system, but I don’t think there’s a way to argue it’s likely all of them would have, because, simply put, it is mathematically and empirically proven that the preferential ballot does change the outcome sometimes. It’s unclear how often, but often enough that it would be rather unlikely for us to have not already had this happen in the 12 years of it so far (in its modern incarnation). Especially given how many obviously close races we’ve had over the last 8 years or so.
Simply put, I think voters are more likely to vote for a film that has a BP nomination than those that don’t. In fact, they will favour films which are stronger in major categories, unless there is an obvious exception. Also, there haven’t really been films that deserve to be awards juggernaut. You know, films that have done the lot, made loads of money, have unbelievable production from top to bottom. Films that are great in major categories and tech categories. La La Land was the closest to that, but it wasn’t really massive and they clearly didn’t think it deserved it to be a bigger winner. BP winners with two or less Oscars has happened as many or more times in plural than preferential. The preferential is clearly not the problem.
Definitely. They’re also more likely to see it if it has a BP nomination.
“BP winners with two or less Oscars has happened as many or more times in plural than preferential.”
This is misleading. It has happened 9 times, 4 times with the preferential ballot (as detailed above) and 5 times without it. But we’ve only had 24 years in which the preferential ballot was used at the Oscars, as opposed to 69 in which it wasn’t. That means it’s actually a lot more frequent, percentage-wise, in years in which the preferential is used. 17% as opposed to 7%. Not to mention that the first 4 times it happened, without the preferential, there were between 7 and 12 Oscar categories in total (Wings, 12, The Broadway Melody, 7, All Quiet on the Western Front, 8, and Grand Hotel, 12), so those shouldn’t even really count – but, by the first time it happened with the preferential ballot (Mutiny on the Bounty), there were already 17 Oscar categories, a lot closer to the number today and, in any case, a significant uptick. A lot more categories up for grabs, harder for it to happen. Yet it happened two more times over the next 5 years.
Of course, you’re absolutely right that this could also have a lot more to do with the expanded ballot. Grand Hotel would also be added to the list, then, since there were 8 BP nominees in its year.
What happened in the first six years of the Oscars which used plural ballot but hasn’t happened after the plural ballot was reintroduced in 1946? I mean, there were random winners and all sorts of crazy things happened in the early years. There wasn’t a consistent pattern that was reliable and it seems to me be a mistake to put it any weight on them as reliable indicators. You see, the plural ballot in the first six years and after 1946 should have been similar, but they aren’t. Clearly something beyond the ballot was in play. And the same thing is true for preferential ballot. We have had 12 years of the preferential ballot and that happens to be exact number of years as the early era of preferential ballot yet there were Three winners in the early version compared to just one in the current one. That’s three times more likely than now. It should have happened a lot more often if the ballot was responsible for this. It’s not the key variable here. Just because there are now frequent BP winners with just three awards or four isn’t proof that a BP winner with two or a even BP alone will happen. And the only time it happened in the modern era was very predictable because the only viable alternative to prevent it from happening was very weak. It can happen, (as we’ve seen recently that many precedents can be broken), but only if the alternative is not viable stats wise. Are you going to hang your hat on SAG Ensemble?
Well, that’s what I was arguing, that the first six years of the Oscars weren’t quite relevant – because there were far fewer categories in play. Could be other reasons too, clearly.
“And the same thing is true for preferential ballot. We have had 12 years of the preferential ballot and that happens to be exact number of years as the early era of preferential ballot yet there were Three winners in the early version compared to just one in the current one. That’s three times more likely than now. It should have happened a lot more often if the ballot was responsible for this. It’s not the key variable here.”
That’s not how probability works. 🙂 3 and 1 (out of 12) are not far enough apart in this instance – not even logically – for the difference to be statistically relevant. And, honestly, you can just ignore the first 12 years, if you insist. The very fact that we’ve had one with 2 Oscars and several with 3 in this new 12-year preferential run is proof-enough that it can happen. Of course it’s relevant that winners with 3 are more frequent, even for how likely a winner with 2 is, compared to before. Why wouldn’t it be? When there is a trend for BP winners to have very few compared to before (which there just is, this does not need to be proved beyond the numbers I gave for the last 12 years and the 12 before that), why would that not also affect the likelihood of their having 1-2 as opposed to more? That would make no sense.
And, again, I’m not arguing it’s the preferential rather than the expanded ballot. I don’t care which it is, since both are in play this year, as they have been for the last 12 years, as well. So, whichever is the culprit, the likelihood of a 2-Oscar BP winner is the same. And that’s what’s relevant.
“Just because there are now frequent BP winners with just three awards or four isn’t proof that a BP winner with two or a even BP alone will happen.”
It’s not proof it’s going to happen, it’s, as I said, proof that it’s more likely to happen under the current conditions.
“Are you going to hang your hat on SAG Ensemble?”
If Belfast wins only SAG Ensemble, The Power of the Dog wins DGA but something else wins PGA, yes, I very well might see Belfast being the favorite, depending on what else happens. No sense arguing about this now – too many other scenarios are still possible. Like, personally, I have a feeling (and Sontag Glick strongly agrees with me, I bet) that if Belfast doesn’t win the PGA it’s not winning SAG Ensemble either (nor Best Picture), so this point may be moot. So, let’s just wait and see if that scenario I mentioned first comes to fruition and, if it does, resume the discussion then! 🙂 Let’s not waste time debating something that might not even end up being relevant!
I have already conceded that the preferential ballot is marginally more likely to produce anaemic Best Picture winners, which I believe has more to do with expanded Best Picture and thus the spreading of the wealth. The thing I disagree with and have a problem with is the premise the preferential ballot alone is responsible for this. There are other factors such as the type of films that used to win compared to the ones winning now. The typical Oscar Best Picture winners no longer win or even being made. That’s why people have been saying in the last decade things like “where are the Oscar films”? The films that have been winning didn’t have strong tech or even any, while the films with strong tech have been weak in major categories. The only BP winners with strong tech were The Hurt Locker and The Shape of Water and maybe The Artist. THL won six, TA won five and TSOW won four (it would’ve won Cinematography but for Deakins overdue narrative). The anaemic winners were known to be anaemic beforehand and no one was surprised by it. There were no upsets or surprises. They were consistent with the stats. There can be big winners in preferential ballot and both Gravity and Mad Max Fury Road did but they just weren’t strong enough in the major categories. I am questioning the hypothesis that it is the preferential ballot which is responsible for anaemic Best Picture winners. I’ve shown that the expanded ballot that is more responsible for this, but there are other factor, too. For example, the type of winners in recent years are different from previous ones.
“The thing I disagree with and have a problem with is the premise the preferential ballot alone is responsible for this.”
But I’ve never disagreed with you on this. 🙂 I’m pretty sure I said you may well be right that it’s because of the expanded ballot more than the preferential. As I said, it’s not very important to me which, as long as both are in play anyway. If one goes, it becomes important to establish whether that one was it. But not until then.
“he anaemic winners were known to be anaemic beforehand and no one was surprised by it. There were no upsets or surprises. They were consistent with the stats.”
But Belfast is consistent with the stats and obviously would be an anaemic winner. 🙂 It’s more consistent with the stats than the Dawg, so far. It has SAG Ensemble and BAFTA editing. (And, again, I’m not talking about what’s responsible for any of this here – just specifying that Belfast is more stats-valid than Dog right now. Even with just screenplay as a projected win, although Balfe is also still very much on the cards.)
Now I understand. You think Belfast will win because of the stats, not because of the preferential ballot. So, essentially, it’s what I said at the beginning, which is it’s going to be SAG against the Three awards or more for BP winners stat. As I said before, if it comes down to that and The Dog doesn’t have another big stats hurdle I will be riding The Dog all the way home. Belfast will have to win the PGA. It needs that be convinced of winning BP. Another big problem is that Belfast doesn’t have an angle because would be BP winners need an angle in order to win. The Dog could be the first Netlix/streamer to win Best Picture. Also, the subject is darker and unique. I think we underestimate these narrative by just focusing on the stats. What will awarding Best Picture to one of these films say about them? I think the Oscars do think about that.
Of course, the stats are what matters. (Although I do also think the preferential ballot makes it at least somewhat more likely for it to win, since it’s surely much more preferential-friendly than Dog.) The difference between you and I is that I, indeed, don’t think it needs to win the PGA. (Or at least I don’t think it’s clear whether it does or not.) Plenty haven’t needed that. Were it eligible at WGA (which it’s not at fault for in any way that it’s not), and assuming it will win most screenplay precursors in its category, it would be obvious that it doesn’t need the PGA. (Or maybe even SAG. Just WGA has been enough twice before in the PGA era alone. Which means there’s an argument it could win even without any of them. As a WGA-only winner that didn’t get to actually win the WGA because of the ineligibility. Not saying any of this is likely, but it’s a valid stats argument. It’s, again, not at all clear that WGA-ineligibile movies should be obliged to win PGA or DGA – and SAG only matters as an extra win in close races, it breaks ties better than anything else, but it’s not necessary by any means -, given that WGA-eligible ones that win the WGA aren’t, and WGA ineligibility shows no inherent weakness. Although it may or may not generate one, in terms of exposure.) The only reason this discussion is even happening is the WGA-ineligibility. 🙂
“Another big problem is that Belfast doesn’t have an angle because would be BP winners need an angle in order to win. The Dog could be the first Netlix/streamer to win Best Picture.”
I don’t think it needs an angle when it’s easy to frame it as the only valid alternative to the streamer (which the industry is still reticent to embrace – probably, not for sure) that also happens to be the big bad front-runner (the GG winner is always considered the front-runner, which is dumb because they actually get it wrong more years than they get it right these days) that most industry people, from what I’ve heard, are disappointed by when seeing it. Green Book didn’t need an angle to beat the streamer. (If they wanted an anti-racism movie, they had more critically-acclaimed options that year, in the BP lineup.) The King’s Speech didn’t either. Nor Birdman, etc. – what were the big narratives there?
The stats are a very big clue but they are not impregnable. We should not be absolutist about the stats and a couple of precedents can be broken.
I also believe every Best Picture winner needs an angle and I can, usually, see an angle for winners or potential winners. It’s weird, but I cannot see angle for Belfast. I cannot see why it would or should win Best Picture.
I believe in the stats. 🙂 Angles can be found for anything. If there was no angle to be found, so many people (pundits, awards-watchers) wouldn’t be predicting it. (A lot of them don’t care much or at all about stats.)
I could probably find an angle if I cared enough to try. 🙂 But I mostly just care about the stats and logical analysis of the precursor results and other quantifiable factors. That’s what I like to think about during awards season. The angles and narratives I mostly leave to others to worry about…
More quieter films that don’t have big production and closer to independent films than previous Oscar winners. The films in the race this year that would be close to the typical Oscar winners are West Side Story and Dune, but they don’t look like winning because they are not strong enough in the major categories. Also, the films winning now are not making lots of money at the box office, or even have any box office numbers. It’s a different kind of BP winners. So, yes, essentially the more anaemic winners are more possible now, but it’s not simply a case of the preferential/expanded ballot being the sole or even the main reason. It’s the just the way things have been going with different types of films being considered by the Oscars. We had unique winners in recent years. So, long story short, I’m not saying Belfast cannot win because that would obviously be stupid since we know it is at least in second place for BP. It’s that it will probably not have the stats advantage to convince me that it will overcome The Dog. It’s would improve massively if were winning another major award besides Original Screenplay.
That’s three times more likely than now. It should have happened a lot more often if the ballot was responsible for this. It’s not the key variable here. Just because there are now frequent BP winners with just three awards or four isn’t proof that a BP winner with two or a even BP alone will happen. And the only time it happened in the modern era was very predictable because the only viable alternative to prevent it from happening was very weak. It can happen, (as we’ve seen recently that many precedents can be broken), but only if the alternative is not viable stats wise. Are you going to hang your hat on SAG Ensemble?
What makes you so sure The Power of the Dog will be viable stats-wise? 🙂 Hasn’t got that editing nomination yet… (And, if it misses that, having also missed SAG Ensemble, it will be about as “not viable” as The Revenant was.) Again, let’s just wait and see! We’ll know a lot more soon enough.
I’ve split my post in two just in case it’s deemed to be a spam.
What happened in the first six years of the Oscars which used plural ballot but hasn’t happened after the plural ballot was reintroduced in 1946? I mean, there were random winners and all sorts of crazy things happened in the early years. There wasn’t a consistent pattern that was reliable and it seems to me be a mistake to put it any weight on them as reliable indicators. You see, the plural ballot in the first six years and after 1946 should have been similar, but they aren’t. Clearly something beyond the ballot was in play. And the same thing is true for preferential ballot. We have had 12 years of the preferential ballot and that happens to be exact number of years as the early era of preferential ballot yet there were Three winners in the early version compared to just one in the current one.
There’s no statistically evidence for why this is and it seems pretty random to me, so we have to look at things. I think we must at the context of the Oscar race. The Oscars race now is very much different to the Oscar race in the 1930s and 1940s. We have long awards season that have some influence, especially the guilds has a big influence andOscarstend to align with them. It’s unlikely for the Oscars to be outside the consensus. The only recent example we have is, of course, Spotlight in 2016. But I believe that was an exceptional circumstance because the three frontrunners that were neck and neck split the three major guilds. The only film of the three frontrunners that was going to win three or more awards had two big issues, namely SAG and, biggest problem of all, Screenplay. So, it was going to be for it to win Best Picture. That left only two films that can only Screenplay along with BP. Now, are we looking at a similar scenario this year? It doesn’t seem like it.
Evidently many things are different now from the 1940’s – but I think people underestimate just how many things are the same, as well… 🙂 People and how they vote on things haven’t changed that much at all. Many other such things haven’t changed.
“It’s unlikely for the Oscars to be outside the consensus.”
Debatable. 1917, Roma, La La Land, etc. were the consensus – every other year AMPAS throws in a winner that’s not really in agreement with most of the major precursors…
But using the same ballot over however many years should show the same results, surely? I think consistence between the the same ballot is important in order to determine whether it is the key variable. There as different over different eras as plural and preferential are different from each other. That’s the problem here.
“But using the same ballot over however many years should show the same results, surely?”
Not even close to true. 🙂 There is also variance. This is not just math, there are many variables there which complicate things and introduce a lot of randomness into how the results are distributed even over many decades, let alone a dozen years. It would be an accident if it gave the same results over two different 12-year periods, even if it was exactly the same system, down to the smallest details. Small differences (like 3 winners with 2 or less vs. 1) are what’s normal here, not the exact same results.
I am not saying it’s completely out of the question that Belfast can win Best Picture with just Screenplay. Any film that has all the stats can win Best Picture on its own with just one more or lots. There are no stats which can rule any of those outcomes. Dune is likely to be leading the nominations and also hit every stat necessary for BP victory., yet it’s not really a challenger for BP. It’s obvious to say that that Belfast has to win PGA to show that it can win, and The Dog will probably have to do the same, but it’s more important for Belfast because that will be it’s last chance to beat The Dog head to head. For me, The Dog is in a very strong position at the moment.
It’s all about the wins, clearly. But Belfast might be able to do it even with just SAG. (As long as Dog doesn’t win that, in addition to DGA. Which means it might need that win just as much as Belfast – more, in fact, considering it can’t win SAG Ensemble and Belfast might.) There’s an argument there – not enough evidence that WGA-ineligible movies must win the PGA. I had a long debate with aroncido and Ferdinand on the subject a few days ago. 🙂 Quite illuminating. Then I checked my system and found that, with some tweaks, it also worked if one removed the need to win the PGA, DGA or WGA for specifically WGA-ineligible movies. Which is a fair and logical change I might decide to make regardless of whether Belfast wins one of those or not. This has always been an issue I’ve struggled to find the best solution to, the WGA ineligibility thing, ever since the Three Billboards year, the first one (at least in recent memory) when the issue was clearly crucial. I’ve come up with some solutions, but this one might be better. It’s unclear to me how important it is for a WGA-ineligible movie to win PGA or DGA. I’m very much undecided on it. This year might offer further clarification.
The problem is that SAG alone doesn’t signal anything,especially when it’s main competitor isn’t there. Also, we know missing SAG Ensemble isn’t that big of deal these days.
What’s relevant here is what winning SAG Ensemble signifies for contenders with no major snubs. 🙂 (Since Belfast, in my opinion, won’t have any. I don’t buy Branagh missing – editing seems the biggest danger to me. But I think it will get in.) Acting aside, since winning SAG Ensemble proves support from the acting branch anyway. Then, you have 4 SAG winners which were not snubbed for picture, director, screenplay or editing at either the guilds or the Oscars, didn’t win the PGA and didn’t win the DGA. I’m leaving WGA out of it because Belfast wasn’t eligible so we can’t know what it would have done there. Of those 4 SAG winners that met these same conditions Belfast (which, by the way, can still win the PGA, too – and even the DGA, crazier things have happened before, so it may yet be even stronger than these) is presumably going to meet, 3 won Best Picture (Parasite, Crash and Shakespeare in Love – all happened to be eligible at WGA and win, as Belfast perhaps would, were it eligible itself) and only 1 failed. (American Hustle.) This does not quite support the theory about SAG meaning nothing on its own. (No PGA or DGA.) SAG, like all major guild wins, means quite a lot when the contender is proven elsewhere to be extremely strong, and a lot less when it’s not. But meaningless it most certainly is not…
“especially when it’s main competitor isn’t there”
This is an argument, but 1917 wasn’t there when Parasite won it, either. And don’t tell me 1917 wasn’t as strong as Dog – we don’t know that yet! It won the PGA – Dog probably won’t, honestly. It missed editing, Dog might too. It missed acting, but so did Parasite.
“Also, we know missing SAG Ensemble isn’t that big of deal these days.”
Probably, but it’s not irrelevant, either.
The Dog is a lot stronger than 1917. That’s not even a debate. The Dog is very in BD as well as acting and Screenplay 1917 was very weak in the latter two and got very lucky to be nominated for Screenplay. I thought it was likely not winning BD until it got Screenplay. I think both The Dog and Belfast will get the necessary stats, although I do think it could miss editing. I felt that was it’s weakest part, so I’m not surprised by its BAFTA miss in that category. It’s not bad or anything and should still be nominated, but it’s not one of its strongest part.
Compared to the competition, no, it’s no stronger. Not yet. I’ve already said why. I could become.
“and got very lucky to be nominated for Screenplay.”
Stat doesn’t care about that. 🙂 The nomination is the stat, not how tightly it was obtained. Probably the tighter the better, in fact, as long as there are also major wins elsewhere to corroborate that this indicates BP strength. And, if I’m right, Belfast will have those wins. If I’m wrong, there’s no debate. 🙂 Then, it’s just not winning.
And I don’t think Belfast stronger than Parasite compared to the competition. Actually, quite understand what you mean compared to the competition. I mean, The Dog missed only SAG.
Yeah, you’re right, I guess 1917 did also miss acting nominations at SAG. (Even if there’s a lot of evidence that SAG and Oscar acting nominations actually don’t affect the outcome of BP, despite common perception.) And, of course, it didn’t have the critical domination Dog does. (Not really statistically-relevant, but, presumably, it helps at least a little bit.) 1917 also missed editing – but maybe Dog will, too. Still, 1917 did win the PGA and Dog hasn’t done that yet. It’s far from certain that it will. It will be the stats favorite, I suppose, after the Globe wins (and assuming it also, as expected, wins the Critics Choice for picture and director), but watch out for the BFCA screenplay winner! Whether it’s Belfast or something else. That’s always the danger. And, if it fails to win the PGA… it’s arguably not going to be doing any better than 1917. Certainly won’t be doing much better, even if it gets in for editing.
I think winning the Screenplay at the BFCA or BAFTA is crucial for strengthening The Power of The Dog’s grip on Best Picture and would kinda saw up the game for it.
By the way, it will have to basically prove the jury’s directing nominations are irrelevant if it’s to win BAFTA, as in all 53 years of the BAFTA directing category only once has the BAFTA Best Film winner not been nominated – Educating Rita (1983), in the era of 4 nominees for both film and directing at BAFTA. If I’m wrong about those being 90% irrelevant, then that’s out the window too… 🙂 BAFTA’s stupid new system screws up a lot of things, predictions-wise, just like the WGA’s eligibility system does.
Similarly, I still think Belfast needs to win screenplay with BFCA and probably also BAFTA Best Film.
No, i was only pointing out that it looked weak until it got that crucial nomination in Screenplay. I thought it was certain to win BD after that, especially when it won the DGA. it turns out it didn’t make any difference. Ultimately, that unexpected nomination didn’t matter. The reverse could be true, you know.
Sorry, but I had to post it like this because my long comment to yesterday was deemed to be a Spam. I hope it works and you my replies.
I think I got them all…
Yes, good.
I don’t think Will Smith deserves it over Benedict Cumberbatch, Smith hasn’t won a single critics award, only the Globe, and he won’t win BAFTA, or the SAG, also it’s so strange that Penelope Cruise won ALL of the 3 top Critics awards, NY, LA, and National Society of Critics, but yet was left COMPLETELY OFF of the Critics choice Awards. One of there most BIZZARE moments, how Preytell, can you win the National Society of Critics and Not even get a nomination from Critics Choice??????? I haven’t seen the film yet, but she’s a terrific actress, that you’ve never put into the mix. also you love that song “Be Alive” which also has not done as well as say “No Time to Die” which seems to be the far more obvious choice, it already won the grammy for best song from a film.
Deserves got nothing to do with it, kid
I’m heavily tempted to use that line every single time somebody brings up merit in relation to the Oscars… 🙂
Smith could win SAG, depends what his peers think of him. There’s a certain weirdness to his recent interviews.
Is that a fact?! That’s a problem stats-wise, too… A big one.
So Ruth Negga isn’t even a contender? These predictions continue to just be laughable weekly.
I know, right? She might come in and steal it at the end.