Tomorrow we’ll be getting all of our key awards groups all at once. It’s kind of nuts but what can you do.
So let’s have a little No Guts, No Glory party.
These are the groups:
Directors Guild
Writers Guild
Producers Guild
Editors Guild
You can pick any of these groups for your No Guts, No Glory. Pick up to three. Here are mine:
Sian Heder (CODA) for Best Director and Best First time Director
No Time to Die and Spider-Man in for Producers Guild
NGNG:
French Dispatch in for PGA.
Michael Sarnoski in for DGA first time and best director for Pig.
In the Heights in for WGA.
NGNG:
THE LAST DUEL gets the ACE nomination
LICORICE PIZZA only gets WGA
SPIDER-MAN misses PGA but gets in at Oscars
And of course Lakeith Stanfield in Supporting Actor lol
the webhead needs the PGA to sneak in at the Oscar… it’s not going to sneak in, without any precursor.
off topic (maybe?)
Watching “Don’t Look Up!” for a 3rd time. It really gets better and better with repeated viewings… specially with what’s going on right now, beyond climate changes (re: Ukraine… we’re on the verge of WW3 and everyone is acting like the media in the film, about the comet). I originally gave it a *** / C rating. I am on the ***** / A at this point.
We’re not on the verge of WW3 though. Even if Russia invades, the West has only promised sanctions, no military response.
wait.. and.. see…
Gas is one of the main reasons for this conflict, but also, the will of the EU and the NATO of having Ukraine as a member, something that corners even more, Putin’s Russia. But a conflict between Russia and the NATO would start a chain reaction, almost certainly, also in Asia.
Also the situation is scarily similar to the one in the 30s. You could compare Ukraine’s civil war to the Spanish one. The alliances and treaties signed and the conflict of interests are similar, and the crises comes right after a chain of economical crises (since 2007) that have weakened key countries… and in the eve of a main transformation of the work market worldwide, accelerated by the Covid crises, which will produce massive unemployment everywhere. Back in the 30s the consequence was the demographic purge of WW2, and at this point it seems something similar – with a subsequent contraction of the market – may happen.
Oh my god not only an expert on Pe , Antonio And Pedro … but also in Spanish history and internacional issues . Too much for me .
I am spanish, Geographer and expert in development, Historian (specialized in contemporary, cum laude), worked in international cooperation, working for the government (not for a NGO!) and I find it funny your pasive-aggresive trolling, when you actually don’t show your background, that would “justify” your attitude 😉
Dune and Cyrano become the front runners
It’s not going to happen, but I would love to see the Power of the Dog get snubbed in one of the four categories today to make the awards race more interesting.
Does anyone know what time EST everyone announces?
NGNG Oscar 2023 (in 2024)
Best Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett, “A Manual for Cleaning Women”
Best Supporting Actress: another actress from the same film. Maybe Tilda Swinton?
And Pedro for director , cinematography ,editing and original song . Stop please stop .
wahahaha… I was a bit playing, and joking. But 2 Oscar winner Cate directed by the BEST Actress director of all time (with George Cukor’s permission)? We all know any actress in the film will be an instant contender. What other director has launched TWO actors to nominations, for two different non-english speaking films? I made the observation, because Roma had 2 acting nominees, of course, and probably I am slipping some other. Of course AMPAS will keep an eye, if reviews are good to great.
Licorice Pizza out at PGA
West Side Story out at WGA
King Richard in at DGA
Not very bold, but bracing for the worst.
NGNG:
PGA:
Mass + The Lost Daughter + Spider-Man: No Way Home IN
House of Gucci + Don’t Look Up OUT
DGA:
Ryusuke Hamaguchi or Ashgar Fahradi IN
Dennis Villeneuve OUT
WGA:
Nightmare Alley, The Green Knight, Pig and Mass IN
Dune and Don’t Look Up OUT
ACE:
Belfast, House of Gucci OUT
Spencer, Parallel Mothers, Licorice Pizza IN
I’m not sure if these are bold enough to be NGNGs but one for each:
PGA: Licorice Pizza out, The Lost Daughter in
DGA: Steven Spielberg out, Ridley Scott in (for House of Gucci)
WGA: West Side Story out, Spider-Man: No Way Home in
ACE: The Power of the Dog out, House of Gucci in
“PGA: Licorice Pizza out”
At least I wasn’t the only one who thought this might happen…
As for Dog missing anything (after the expected SAG omission), I’m afraid they won’t make it that easy on us this season. 🙂 We’re going to have a tougher puzzle than that on our hands at the end of all of this…
PGA: Spider Man out, C’mon C’mon in.
Drive my car at both DGA and PGA
Not bad, as a NGNG…
we can feel it coming, can’t we?
Still feels like a strong possibility at the Oscars. In my opinion, more so in picture than director. (Most people think the opposite.) It can of course also miss both again. But screenplay, at the very least, should happen.
I’ve missed you. I forgot why I blocked you, and honestly, I forgot I’VE BLOCKED YOU!!! LOL. You’re one of the greatest contributors here, let me tell you that, and how much I respect you. Hope you accept my apology!
🙂 I’m very happy to talk to you again. You’re one of the best contributors too, needless to say, and we agree on so many things. (This year included.) It was always a pleasure talking to you. OK, we had our disagreements, as well, mostly with me defending my approach of having stats as the biggest factor in my predictions – the usual reason I disagree with folks around here -, but that’s normal and constructive and I never got upset about that, or anything. (As far as I can remember.) I hope you didn’t either.
And I don’t think you should apologize – maybe I should, in fact. Probably. You were right that I shouldn’t have made those lists of lock calls without first asking people for their consent to be on the list and I’ve been thinking about doing that ever since. (Asking everybody beforehand.) It just feels a bit weird, feels like that might upset people anyway, that’s why I haven’t started doing it yet. But I probably will this year. (If I intend to do the lists anymore. Last year there wasn’t much point, Nomadland was the pretty clear favorite throughout, no bad lock calls could really be made, at least in picture. So I don’t even remember if I did the list. If I did, it must have been pretty short.)
And you were right, yours wasn’t necessarily a lock call – it could be interpreted that way, but also, once you explained where you were coming from, it was pretty clear you hadn’t meant it that way. I think I tried to tell you that then, but you’d already blocked me. 🙂 Anyway, I actually think if anybody should apologize here, it should be me, like I said, so: I’m honestly sorry I upset you with that and I wish I had been more selective about what comments to include on that list! (Or that I’d thought about just asking people first if they were standing by their lock calls – and if that was indeed what they were -, even knowing I was going to put them on the list.)
I realize that reminding you of why you blocked me, and all that, if you indeed forgot, might not be in my best interest here 🙂 – but I do prefer total honesty, in life, and I hope you’ll see now that I meant absolutely no disrespect, nor had any malice towards you in mind when I published that list. It’s just something I like to do as a cautionary tale against premature lock calls, which I think you’ll agree are thrown about rather liberally in the Oscarwatching business… 🙂 (And have always been a major pet-peeve of mine, as a result.)
no hard feelings. Indeed. Happy to have remembered where to check who I have blocked… I only have 2 blocked users now, and if I remember correctly, they were for blatant bullying. Lol.
I think I know where to find that list too. I have 2-3 people on it myself. Have considered taking them off – I feel like I’ve matured since then and their comments wouldn’t bother me as much anymore. But when I remember Andrew’s incessant unprovoked (and rather unpleasant) attacks on almost every post I made, the Spotlight year… Makes me reconsider. 🙂
(I hope you don’t take the Cate Blanchet’s likely contender status for the new Almodovar film, as a “lock call”, but a “likely to earn plenty of attention beforehand and in the conversation since the project is announced”)
No, no, of course not. 🙂 Besides, I only really get worked up about people calling locks in Best Picture, anyway, except in some very rare cases. (Like when I was so invested in the actress race last year. Because Mulligan’s performance and the Cassie Thomas character instantly joined the ranks of my all-time favorites, and have only grown in stature for me after the rewatch.) Most years, I don’t even pay attention to the other categories half as much as I do BP, until days before the Oscar ceremony – except on the nights of the big TV precursors, like SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, etc., or when some other category feels crucial in deciding or at least clarifying the BP race, and there’s no runaway favorite.
do you want to know a funny thing? the very earliest time I mentioned someone as an “almost locked” winner, was saying, after reading Stephen King’s “Misery”, that whoever played the starring characters in the unavoidable – it’s Stephen King! – adaptation to the screen, was kind of warranted the Oscar victory. I was right only in 50% (I still wonder why they snubbed Caan from even the nomination!)
Oh, that’s a fabulous call even for just one of the two wins! Especially given the genre bias and all that. (Which maybe was the very reason Caan missed – I had forgotten he had, and wouldn’t have guessed it, felt like both had gotten in.) I’ve never gotten anywhere near making a call like that, myself – although, to be fair, I don’t follow the Oscar race quite so early in the season, to make such early calls. But I feel like I probably wouldn’t be very good at it, anyway. 🙂 I’m more about logical analysis of the arguments and precursor results than the intuitive side. It’s without doubt that you have me beat there! You’re way better at that…
well, it was out of analysis, anyways. When reading the book, it was clear the intensity necessary for both characters, and also how many “Oscar clips” the book was offering to the actors that would portray the two starring characters (and that it was going to be an intense acting duel, Sleuth style).
It’s the same why I think Blanchet may be already thinking in making room for a third, with Almodovar’s next… we all know how awesome of an actor’s director, Almodovar is, specially for actresses, and how well he writes female characters (like does he have any competition on that field?), and that despite the language barrier, he has achieved two nominations (as leads) for two of his actors (Cruz in Volver and Banderas in Pain & Glory) already, and God knows how close he was to achieve the same for Maura (lead in Women on the Verge… and Supporting in Volver), Cecilia Roth (All about my mother), Javier Cámara (Talk to Her, either lead or supporting), Banderas (The Skin I live in)… and also how many more would have been nominated, if the performances in Spanish didn’t have the handicap of the language barrier (Rossy de Palma could have been nominated three times in Supporting: Kika, The Flower of my Secret and Julieta, in pure scene-stealer mode)… now, any actress in “Manual for Cleaning Women” is an automatic name in the list of contenders to watch out for 2023’s race (unless he speeds-track it for a 2022 release, which would be a mistake, as the Awards flop of Parallel Mothers has demonstrated). I think he will be aiming to Cannes again (but probably won’t win Palm d’Or because some may dislike he’s finallly making a Hollywood-friendly project) to properly build up an Awards-season campaign.
Let’s wait and see.
No, of course. 🙂 And makes sense about Blanchett. She’ll probably be at least nominated – and you may be right, she might win.
House of Gucci shut-out.
Nailed it!
NGNG
No DGA for Spielberg.
Across the board.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b446951a1bde9e2de4d9f227b8087d84a4fddc8aa646740bc3bbc2d8410a41be.gif
I haven’t seen CODA yet, but honestly, I find it sad, when an americanized remake of a foreign film, steals the limelight from the original. And that goes for The Departed, as well.
And in this case, it is specially crazy, as it is supposed to avoid the audience reading subtitles, when all the sign language dialogue will be subtitled, anyways!
The Departed is an enjoyable film. It’s not Scorsese’s best but it’s a terrific mainstream film. CODA is touching and everything but it’s truly unoriginal and by the numbers. And the French film isn’t really particularly original either, as the German Jenseits der Stille, which was nominated for an Oscar some 25 years ago, had a similar story.
I wish Marty would have swept with The Wolf of Wall Street, instead.
NGNG:
1. streamers take 7 of the 10 PGA slots
2. We won’t see any more passive-aggressive politically charged shots taken at the AD readership the rest of Oscar season (a feller can dream, can’t he?)
Joel Coen and PTA nominated for the DGA . Spielberg and Branagh miss the DGA slots. House Of Gucci gets all the four PGA, WGA, DGA, Eddie nominations.
I’m not sure if these are bold enough to be NGNGs but one for each:
PGA: Licorice Pizza out, The Lost Daughter in
DGA: Steven Spielberg out, Ridley Scott in (for House of Gucci)
WGA: West Side Story out, Spider-Man: No Way Home in
ACE: The Power of the Dog out, House of Gucci in
Villeneuve misses DGA
Love the excellent choice of that fierce pic of Dame Elizabeth Taylor from Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf’. People may have thought the Butterfield 8 Oscar was a sympathy prize, but as Sally Field famously said, ‘you like me, you really really like me’. Liz was a force of nature in that Mike Nichols movie.
Whos Afraid of Virginia Woolf is both one of the finest pieces of American theater ever written (up there with Death of A Salesman) and one of the best play to film adaptations ever.
Villeneuve misses DGA
Sorkin gets in DGA
Cyrano in for PGA
I hope you’re wrong (because I love Dune), but those seem like good NGNG picks…
1. Three musicals hit with PGA – West Side Story, Tick Tick…Boom AND In the Heights, with a fourth (Cyrano) possible
2. Licorice Pizza, House of Gucci, Tragedy of Macbeth miss out on everything across the board
3. Auteurist movies get put on notice that they are just critical darlings that the Guilds won’t go for. Like Power of the Dog misses out somewhere important, like PGA or DGA.
These auteurs are all Oscar darlings as they all have multiple nominations. And some of them are Oscar winners, and Campion is included in that list.
Spider-Man AND Being the Ricardos hits all three guilds.
Lost Daughter gets best Director.
I think House of Gucci continues to over perform and hits all but DGA
Nightmare Alley makes all four shortlists
PGA – The Last Duel
DGA – Spencer
WGA – Spider-Man : No Way Home
I like those guts, and i wish you the glory 🙂