Paul Thomas Anderson
Licorice Pizza
(Metro Goldwyn Mayer Pictures/United Artists Releasing)
Mr. Anderson’s Directorial Team:
- Unit Production Manager: Sue McNamara
- First Assistant Director: Adam Somner
- Second Assistant Director: Trevor Tavares
- Second Second Assistant Directors: Kasia Trojak, Bob Riley, David Marnell
Kenneth Branagh
Belfast
(Focus Features)
Jane Campion
The Power of the Dog
(Netflix)
Steven Spielberg
West Side Story
(20th Century Studios)
Mr. Spielberg’s Directorial Team:
- Unit Production Managers: Carla Raij, Daniel Lupi
- First Assistant Director: Adam Somner
- Second Assistant Director: Jeremy Marks
- Assistant Unit Production Manager: Robert T. Striem
- Second Second Assistant Director: Josh Muzaffer
- Additional Second Assistant Director: Billy Brennan
- Location Managers: Robert T. Striem, Katherine Delaney
Denis Villeneuve
Dune
(Warner Bros. Pictures)
Mr. Villeneuve’s Directorial Team:
-
- Unit Production Managers: Joe Caracciolo, Jr., James Grant
- First Assistant Director: Chris Carreras
- Second Assistant Director: Tom Rye
***
In addition, Glatter announced the nominees for the DGA Award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement of a First-Time Feature Film Director for 2021.
“New voices, fresh storytelling and unique perspectives bring exciting energy to our craft, and keep our industry evolving into the future,” added Glatter. “That’s what this award is all about and we’re so proud to shine a spotlight on the directorial achievements of these remarkable first-time directors. We can’t wait to see what’s next from these profoundly talented filmmakers.”
The nominees for OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT OF A FIRST-TIME FEATURE FILM DIRECTOR FOR 2021 are (in alphabetical order):
Maggie Gyllenhaal
The Lost Daughter
(Netflix)
Rebecca Hall
Passing
(Netflix)
Tatiana Huezo
Prayers for the Stolen
(Netflix)
Lin-Manuel Miranda
Tick, Tick… Boom!
(Netflix)
Mr. Miranda’s Directorial Team:
- Unit Production Manager: Deb Dyer
- First Assistant Director: Mariela Comitini
- Second Assistant Directors: Josh A. Muzaffer, Luca Waldman
- Second Second Assistant Directors: Melissa Morphet, Lincoln Major
- Additional Second Assistant Director: Zach Citarella
- Location Manager: Ryan Smith
Michael Sarnoski
Pig
(NEON)
Emma Seligman
Shiva Baby
(Utopia)
Shiva Baby!
Does anyone think it a bit odd that Emma Seligman showed up here as a sixth nominee, when the guild has always included five in the past? Could that be some insight into encompassing diversity and inclusion?
Or it could just be a tie.
We’ll never know, I guess…
Dune hasn’t missed the big guilds where it was a player (i.e., not acting, which, duh). And for that, I’m thankful. Just hope it hits on nominations morning.
It should’ve been nominated for acting too, if the world was fair.
Exactly. Rebecca deserved every Best Supporting Actress Award in the world alone and the entire cast was exceptional.
I love you guys! 🙂 She’s easily my favorite in the category so far, of what I’ve seen, and I’ve seen Belfast, West Side Story, The Power of the Dog, etc.
It would be a low blow if they did the dirty on us with this one…
Right… Hard to process all of this at once (PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE and Gold Derby Award nominations), but I’m going to try…
Most important misses:
West Side Story – ACE. Could this have something to do with the weird category placement? (Beyond its just being placed in the tougher category, I mean.) Don’t know. Will read other people’s comments once I’m done with this, to see if this is maybe a thing. In any case, it’s probably very bad, even just on its own. Since Driving Miss Daisy (which got snubbed with only 3 slots and no comedy/musical category at ACE), only Spotlight has won without one of these. Not to mention West Side Story also missed ASC and, earlier, SAG. Not for a second did I ever think it was winning Best Picture, given the former winner remake thing, but I was hoping it could get closer than it seems to be getting. A lot of people were, in fact.
CODA – DGA and ACE. The first one not surprising, the second I’m guessing a bit more so. Combined, these basically guarantee it’s not winning Best Picture. Never happened in a year with more than 3 nominees at ACE, and there are 5 in its category and 5 more in the other one this year. Two snub rule, clear-cut, zero exceptions, so it’s out. Nothing else atop the BP race (not even West Side Story) is technically eliminated yet by guild stats, but a lot are very close and probably will be, once the Oscar nominations come out.
King Richard – DGA. Not a surprise at all (you couldn’t have gotten me to predict this at DGA, given its track record with precursors in the category, with a gun to my head) but, as for everything else that missed here, this is a big problem in and of itself. Driving Miss Daisy and Hamlet exist, but that’s not a lot of exceptions in seven decades… Don’t Look Up also missed this. Other movies missed these as well, of course, but already nobody was predicting them (meaning anything outside the current top 7-8) to win Best Picture at the Oscars, so that’s less relevant.
No interesting misses happened at WGA (The Tragedy of Macbeth, but that wasn’t in the top 8 in the BP race anyway) or PGA (where 9/10 nominees were the Globe picture nominees, with the tenth, Being the Ricardos, logically replacing Cyrano) but a few things did pop up in the Gold Derby nominations: West Side Story missed screenplay there, on top of its major guild misses. (Only Green Book has won the BP Oscar without a Gold Derby screenplay nomination, 1/19.) Got in at WGA, of course, which is more important, but its miss here probably proves it’s nowhere near the top in the category. King Richard missed picture (same stat, but with the exception being The King’s Speech, in this case), screenplay, etc.
Nicole Kidman missed in actress, somewhat shockingly, at least to me. She was a distant seventh in the vote. Being the Ricardos did very well overall today, but this is still a problem. It can perhaps be overcome and she still makes the most sense as the winner, but zero exceptions in 19 years in the category… Not good. Aunjanue Ellis missed again (I guess not surprisingly, given how little love King Richard got from this group), as did Denzel (this one I found to be rather weird). The Power of the Dog had no significant misses anywhere, as usual. (Not with Gold Derby, not with the guilds.)
Belfast again did just enough everywhere to be fully stats-valid, but not more. With Gold Derby, it got the minimum 6 nominations required, including picture, director, screenplay, acting (Balfe, Hinds) and editing. Could have had more, but quite narrowly missed out in production design, cinematography and ensemble. (With regard to the latter and its correlation to winning SAG Ensemble, it’s high, but not prohibitive: 2/18 SAG Ensemble winners in the “Gold Derby era” missed this, The King’s Speech and Slumdog Millionaire. 11% is more than enough for a non-industry stat to not look particularly concerning. Coincidentally, both of those also won Best Picture. CODA and Don’t Look Up are the only ones that have both of the ensemble nominations in question this year. I still rate Belfast’s chances at SAG, though, because it appears to have a lot more screenplay strength than any of the other four, and that’s a big deal when predicting the ensemble winner.)
As for what’s likeliest to win Best Picture, based on just the industry evidence thus far – talking major guilds (PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, SAG ensemble and acting, the only stats-relevant ones):
1. Belfast – no misses (1 SAG acting nomination is the same as 3, no stats difference whatsoever)
2. The Power of the Dog – just SAG Ensemble, clearly beatable but also not insignificant
3. Licorice Pizza – no ensemble or multiple acting nominations at SAG (big problem, rather strong stat)
4. Dune – no SAG nominations whatsoever (even bigger stats problem, evidently)
5. West Side Story – the same problem as Licorice Pizza plus the ACE miss (another very strong stat)
6. King Richard – DGA snub (enormous problem, probably just rules out all of those outside the top 5)
7. Don’t Look Up – DGA snub and no SAG acting nominations (also a pretty strong stat)
8. tick, tick…BOOM! – DGA snub and no ensemble or multiple acting nominations at SAG
The rest, of which CODA and Being the Ricardos, the two remaining PGA nominees, are clearly strongest, all now fall under the two snub rule and are, thus, basically locked to not win Best Picture on March 27th. (These are zero-exception rules we’re talking about here – all-time. And it’s decades upon decades of evidence…)
Other observations:
I had recently convinced myself Licorice Pizza was going to miss big with the industry, for various reasons – could not have been more wrong about that. Which I don’t mind. 🙂 I expect to like the movie, whenever I finally get a chance to see it. As for Spider-Man: No Way Home, I’m not going to say I was sure it wouldn’t make the PGA list (although I’ve been and remain quite confident about its not being nominated at the Oscars), but I certainly thought that it was likely it would miss, which is why I was so surprised to see all of the AD crew predicting it to get in yesterday… Being the Ricardos and tick, tick…BOOM! seem to be the big winners of the day, with House of Gucci (bizarrely, after SAG and BAFTA) and The Tragedy of Macbeth (both blanked) the big losers. The Lost Daughter and Nightmare Alley, too, but those were expected to not do well. And, of course, as mentioned, West Side Story and CODA, in particular, took some more big hits.
The updated stats table:
Licorice Pizza moves back into third, ahead of West Side Story, after the latter’s missteps. Don’t Look Up, tick, tick…BOOM!, Being the Ricardos, Drive My Car (thanks to Gold Derby) and others also move up a bit, as CODA, Nightmare Alley and The Lost Daughter drop. BAFTA and Oscar nominations make up most of what’s left before the table will be complete. In the photo, the current top 30 – this table, it should be noted, is comprised of stats for the BP win, but, quite logically, it also tends to do very well at predicting what will get nominated.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4c57c3265297668625bb69f5e95cf22f2e05c505c19e3e4d31db19fec57f66bf.jpg
I’m forgetting: Did the stats indicate that Jordan Peele would be nominated for Best Director?
He had DGA+BFCA (plus major critical support) so, yes, around 4th in line that year, pretty clearly.
Absolutely. He had a DGA nomination, a Critics’ Choice nomination.
In addition, his film had PGA, SAG ensemble, WGA, ACE nominations.
Plus, he won first film with the NYFCC, best screenplay with the LAFCA, and was the runner-up for directing with the NSFC.
A film with wins from at least two of the three major critics’ groups (in directing, screenplay, first film), top nods from all major guilds (DGA, SAG – ensemble, PGA, WGA, ACE), and a top Globe nomination has never missed directing at the Oscars.
Well, on Belfast… yes, it’s in the same position as Three Billboards, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and A Star Is Born right after the guild nominations. But with Branagh’s vulnerability in directing and the film’s inability to win much (a Globe for screenplay and the NBR for supporting actor is too little) are telling.
And Belfast certainly needs to win the PGA to be the Oscar front-runner in picture (with or without a directing nod). All best picture winners in modern history have at least one major guild win. Belfast won’t get DGA, it’s ineligible for the WGA, which leaves SAG and PGA.
But as I love to mention, no film (WGA eligibility does not matter) has won best picture with SAG ensemble only. (And SAG ensemble is no foregone conclusion. I happen to think CODA will get this.) So Belfast really needs PGA to remain an option in Best Picture.
Plus, a directing miss will be even more meaningful this year. Because let’s take Green Book for example. It had time to build a narrative with its PGA win. This time around, the PGA is so late that Belfast might not even be able to benefit from it. If it happens at all.
The difference between our evaluation of Belfast‘s chances clearly lies in the fact that you think Branagh is vulnerable to a snub and I don’t, as argued before. 🙂 On the need to win the PGA we mostly agree – although aroncido and Ferdinand do make a good case that perhaps there indeed is not enough evidence that a WGA-ineligible movie otherwise strong-enough to win BP needs to win the PGA, since not many have been in this situation yet. I think it was less than 10. (So, in other words, that this rule perhaps should not apply to those.) I’m still torn on this question. But I do tend to agree that it needs the PGA win. (If nothing else, because, the way things are looking right now, if it’s indeed the BP winner, then why wouldn’t it beat Dog and everything else at the PGA? There’s no particularly good reason I can think of.) I certainly would not feel confident in backing it with just a SAG win. (For which I do think it’s the favorite. CODA also makes sense, but the extra screenplay strength should make Belfast more likely, given the correlation between that and the ensemble win.) Also, honestly, I think if it loses the PGA it also loses SAG, most of the time.
“This time around, the PGA is so late that Belfast might not even be able to benefit from it. If it happens at all.”
This is true. It’s right in the middle of Oscar voting. Could be too late. But, as Ferdinand often points out, it might be more meaningful that Belfast is strong enough with industry voters to win the PGA than that it gain any image points/votes from the optics of that win. That might be more relevant. We can’t know.
Gday MY dear friend Claudio how are ya mate? navigatinmg the treachourous turbulence of awards season where esp in recent times more than any time before you and I are not anywhere near as entirely sold on awards season favouritism leanings as you used to be..we seem be blowing against the turbulence ver growing of awards season…and here the thing- the current (us) IS GROWING LARGER BY THE DAY against the seemingly forced Turbulence..THE TIDE..IS TURNING… this will be HAS TO BE FOR SAKE OF AWARDS SEASON OWN rrelevance..NOBODY CAN TELL ME ANY ANY! ARTS INSTUTION CAN HOPE BATS CHANCE IN HELL THAT THEY CAN IGNORE THE FORWARD CURRENT in us and pretend everything is ok.
WEL… no! YOU KNOW AS WELL AS I DO as MOST US DO IT NOT OK!
Let us look at MOST RELEVANT FACTS SHALL WE?
The ones thjat REALLY matter is just how many people in film going public CARE ABOUT AWARDS SEASON CHOICES.
ONCE AGAIN THE MAJOR GUILDS BEEN HALF HEARTED AT BEST BUT TOTALLY UTTERLY DEVIATED FROM ANY SEMBLANCE OF SANE PUBLIC SENTIMENT EY?
You know, everyone, if you build a house..starts with foundation to build th walls..but when the house is fully built what happens when you take out the walls? you cut out the middle structure supporting the top of the house..AND THE ENTIRE THING COMES CRASHING DOWN!
What tells the tale is of your inexplicably outstanding detailed chart is this:
Forget the ‘weighted total’ cos this does NOT FACTOR IN 1 eyota what awards season almost ALWAYS USED TO pre- pref ballot clusterfuk era..as in in that pre- pref ballot era least this broken, flawed devil of a curse albatross Awards season seemingly unable to get out of rut it created in most our perceptions…
BUT YOU CUT OUT LIKE WITH HOUSE ANALOGY THE ‘MIDDLE MEN/ WOMEN’ ALA FILMGOERS SENTIMENT AND YOU WILL DESTROY INTEGRITY, WORTH AND REGARD AWARDS SEASON OF THE VERY FABRIC OF AWARDS SEASON ITSELF it take time but give or take it will barely make it intact to academy’s centenary it be birthday anniversary to forget if they dont set things right to consider US..THIS IS WHAT FUKIN HAPPENS WHEN YOU PUT TOO MUCH STOCK IN A MINORITY OF AGGRESSIVE ABNOXIOUS KEYBOARD AHOLES OF RADICAL FAR LEFT ONLINE THAT BULLKY AND INTIMIDATE AND FOR WHAT? ONLY TO DELIVER A EVENTUAL BEST PICTURE WINNER THAT A FRACTION OF THE VISION LEAST 4-5 OTHERS FILMS THAT BEEN UNDERMINED BY UNETHICAL IMMORAL FORCES THAT CONTROL AWARDS SEASON AGENDA AND GUILDS/ ACADEMY MINDS?!!
So stats that are glaring thanx to your inspired detailed trademark list onlyu way you know how mate..i hope your family is safe and well u kids if you have any? share with us what u can mate bout how you been navigating turbulence of pandemic but i still insist and i reinforce my calls for Guilds/ bafta/ academy part of awards season to be postponed until Omnicron wave settles down cos as reinforces by delusional largely guild choices..save for handful..there is no clear thinking and again with 1 in 5 pple globa;lly being sick from ominicron esp in USA in around Hollywood..cos vaccination reluctance is still strong amongst the USA overall..how CAN WE BE CERTIAN LIKE LAST YEAR ONE IN EVERY 3 GUILD PANEL JUDGES OR AMPAS VOTERS OR BAFTAS VOTERS WERE TOO SICK WITH COVID TO VOTE? you never know how else you explain what i call the
‘barren as camels ass buried in sand’ bland non inspiring era of academy and awards season?’
The stats that stand out to me are ones i bout to highlight that should be rated in top Eight NOT THE BOTTOM Eight..
Below is where current rating on your charts as opposaed to where many strongly believe endorse following clearly undeservedly outside movies awards season sees DESERVE to be rated at:
MY SENSIBLE YES IDEALISTIC ONLY IN RULE OF SOCIALIST RADICAL LEFT AGENDA PURVEYING CORRUPTING VOTERS MINDS..
IS AS FOLLOWS:
30 ACTUAL RANK- should be: 12th- The Green Knight- should have: few more guilds than 3.. inc screenplay as major nom and acting nom for Patel
2eIGHT ACTUAL RANK- should be: Sixth- The Eyes of Tammy Faye- should have: 7 Guild noms.more just acting..but also PGA and lot more in arts department guilds for sure
2Sixth: ACTUAL RANK – should be: 1st- NO TIME TO DIE (i so thrilled to get not only biggest most inspired ambitious and epic espionage action drama/ mystery/ thriller i seen in several years at LEAST and after seeing it second time it is BETTER THAN SKYFALL i explain that later…) but it BEGGARS BELIEF this gem of a masterpiece gets better on repeat viewing (as sadly i only see it once in cinemas for shame!) But where to begin…it WAAAY earned far more respect than it was given..i no idea why pple think this is one of CRaig’s best in performance..in scope..in magnitude at ALL levels nothing lacking everything is rightfully amplified particularly and dramatic level..in this masterpiece..NEXT LEVEL UP in raising the bar for Espionage action movie..to EPIC level..and while paying full respect what made Bond everlasting in it 25th film release! Fukunaga is a fukin genius! i hope to high heaven he sign on to direct at LEAST 2 more Bond movies..
WHAT SHOULD HAVE NO TIME TO DIE RECIEVED? not 3 guilds now.. the MOST just- Acting, Directing, Adapted Screenplay, on seeing second time Lea Seydoux should joined rami malek both should been considered for acting guilds…and goes without saying bloody ADG and for contemporary set bond movie set design was exceptional too…no! should have been NOMINATED IN ALMOST ALL GUILD CATEGORIES NOT 3! The undermining vicious whisper campaign sucked in critics to give it less terms extent critical acclaim than it deserved,,and let not pretend does not happen..but too many not all film critics give in to online social media group think..they afraid to deviate from online sentiment..for fear of there publication reoutations being smeared online..it happens and it does..let not kid ourselves here.!
24th ACTUAL RANK should be: Eighth- Spencer- heaven knows extent like Eyes of Tammy Faye this other biopic drama..has been snubbed pigeonholed into just Acting category.. BOTH these films should be top 10 best picture contenders for sure! though admittedly prob should get total less than Tammy Faye should get but with guilds it been given should had leastr 2 other Guilds..is Kristin Scott Thomas gonna get deserved nomination for oscar? how unjust if she does not?
27th HOUSE OF GUCCIS should be ‘Last Duel ‘ instead should be rank no. 2! with House of Gucci rank no. 10. If ever there was one filmmaker hard done by smear and pressure of social media ratbags corrupting voters minds it Ridley Scott..Duel should be second most favoured film to compete thyis year duelng it with no time to die..should be nomiunated for directing, picture, screenplay? Gucci should be picture and director..both shoul dbe nominated for lot of guilds not thimble few they been..and it utter disgrace
LIKE AWARDS SEADSON HYAS BECOME!
Here what ought to CONERN THE BLOODY HECK OUT OF ALL OF US THIS AWARDS SEASON: it the films that HARDLY FEATURED IN THE GUILDS CONTENTION THAT OUGHT TO PISS US OFF SEE?
G’day to you too! 🙂 Are you Australian? I know they say it that way…
“i hope your family is safe and well u kids if you have any? share with us what u can mate bout how you been navigating turbulence of pandemic”
Thanks! No kids, but yes, the family is all safe so far. As for how… luck has probably played quite the part in that. 🙂 We don’t live in a very crowded area, plus I insisted on us being super-cautious and thorough in the mask-wearing, wiping stuff off with disinfectant and not taking any risks, since very early on, because my mom was in a very at-risk category and I couldn’t take any chances, and for the same reason we got vaccinated as quickly as possible with every available dose. (I had some convincing to do, when it came to my mom, but got it done, also with some outside help.) Either all or some of that has helped, and that’s why we haven’t caught it yet, or else we were all just very, very lucky… Or both. 🙂 I hope you and your family are also doing well and staying safe! You may be right that things should be postponed but, on the other hand, I think the groups in question probably have the budget and resources to make sure everybody’s safe. Nobody who doesn’t feel 100% safe or close enough to it should attend, though, that’s for sure!
I haven’t seen most of the movies you mentioned (yet) – I have my own pace, I usually finish seeing everything close to the start of the next Oscar season, these days –, but I did see Spencer and was definitely a fan. I’m rooting for that, even if without much hope, Belfast (I loved it) and Dune. Also rooting for West Side Story just on general principle, because I love musicals and Spielberg and it was spectacular and fun, even if I didn’t fall hard for it, as others have.
Considering the gangbuster Thursday guild announcements, it’s safe to say that the industry loves Dune and will be a frontrunner coming to the Oscars voting.
No Time to Die looks like a good bet on tech categories so expect a VFX, Sound, Editing nods.
These are your tentpole movies of 2021 which prove that blockbuster films are keeping up with indie darlings this awards season.
Licorice Pizza is also doing very well and the voters surely saw it. It’s the most accessible PTA film in both audience and subject matter so I also expect it to show up on top categories, Hoffman or Haim could get in at the Oscars and Cooper could repeat his SAG nod.
Finally, let me just say how proud I am for Cruella getting ACE in Comedy considering the competition. 5 guild nods ain’t bad! If for anything, Britell’s score and music in it should be the one considered by its guild instead of Don’t Look Up.
At the 2020 GoldDerby Film Award nominations, ”Dune” led the pack with 11, followed by ”The Power of the Dog” and ”West Side Story” with 10. Among them some interesting inclusions and omissions. Its top 10 nominees include ”Drive My Car” and ”Titane.” No Nicole Kidman for Best Actress. No Denzel Washington (”Macbeth”) for Best Actor, but Simon Rex (”Red Rocket”).
https://www.goldderby.com/feature/2022-gold-derby-film-awards-nominations-1204752092/
1. Belfast is the only movie to get PGA, DGA and SAG Ensemble nominations like Trial Of The Chicago 7 last year. Its only win so far is the Globe Screenplay like Trial Of The Chicago 7 last year.
2. Licorice Pizza had the best day out of all the nominated movies. It hit everywhere. PTA may be a serious threat to win the Screenplay Oscar. It is not just a critics movie.
3. West Side Story continues to miss in techs not getting an ACE nomination. Also missed ASC and SAG Ensemble.
4. Being The Ricardos strong showing bodes well for Nicole Kidman’s possible second Oscar.
5. Dune looks poised to win at least 4 tech Oscars.
Regarding 1 & 2, any similarities between Promising Young Woman vs. The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Belfast vs. Licorice Pizza?
Last year ‘Trial Of the Chicago 7’ lost the WGA to Promising Young Woman. That completely turned the momentum. ‘Belfast’ was not eligible for the WGA. So I expect PTA to win the WGA. ‘Belfast’ should then win the Bafta for screenplay. May turn out to be a close fight at the Oscar Awards depending on the nominations. Branagh and PTA both probably need to get nominated for best director.
Regarding 1 & 2, any similarities between Promising Young Woman vs. The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Belfast vs. Licorice Pizza?
First off, let’s count on DGA on being the most predictable Guild awards there is. They never fail to not surprise. Of course the fifth slot was a suspense, but the result is either flip flop between 5th and 6th standings, no more no less.
Secondly, there’s something off about this list of five and why it would have a very hard time repeating 5/5 at the Oscars. Can someone guess? And I’m not talking about the rarity of it matching the Oscars.
…
“First off, let’s count on DGA on being the most predictable Guild awards there is. They never not fail to surprise.”
So it’s not just me… 🙂
To be fair, PGA would be very predictable too if there were only 5 choices. It’s just harder to guess 10/10 than 5/5.
I don’t know – they’re a lot less predictable than the DGA in terms of who they choose as their winners (at least these days), so I tend to doubt it…
Winners, yes. That is b/c of the expanded ballot, pref. voting. If PGA were to choose 5 and vote the same way as DGA, it would be very predictable too. Perhaps less so. They did pick The Crying Game over Unforgiven, which I think is a bit more “daring” than what DGA would do.
Yes – The Crying Game, Moulin Rouge!, Little Miss Sunshine… 🙂 Even back then they were a lot more interesting.
Case in point: I just counted the number of BP nominees included by one but not the other (PGA but not DGA or DGA but not PGA) in the years with 5 for each (pre-preferential, PGA era), and the count is roughly (there were a couple of years in which the PGA had either more or less than 5, it seems) 13-6 “in favor” of the DGA. Meaning there were about twice as many DGA-only choices in the BP Oscar lineup than PGA-only choices. So, the DGA matched the Oscars more, by a fairly significant number of contenders. Which I know is far from a perfect measure for predictability of the PGA vs. DGA lineups, but it’s the easiest one for me to check, by far. 🙂
It’s what happens when you have so many members, many of whom have never directed a movie…
I just think it’s because the voting body is large and reserved for people who work in the industry. The larger the more homogenous it becomes. They just vote for who they know. Not directing a movie doesn’t have anything to do with it. Critics don’t direct movies and their choices are varied.
They’ve all been nominated before, which hasn’t happened since…1950: Mankiewicz, Cukor, Huston, Reed, Wilder.
I doff my cap to you, on this info.
Unless I missed something, which is always possible.
But if I didn’t: Consider Reinaldo Marcus Green, Aaron Sorkin and Ryusuke Hamaguchi. (Possible spoilers: Miranda, Gyllenhaal, Hall.)
Edited to add: This stat was also cited by Nathaniel Rogers at The Film Experience, so it looks solid.
You won the prize!
If I had read the DGA nomination post at the Film Experience a little more carefully this afternoon, I would have saved myself the time and anxiety of poring over the Oscar BD list. But this was a good brain exercise.
You might notice then that a lot more often than not there are at least 2 or more first time nominees.
This stat is 70 year strong for a reason. Back in the 50’s and before, major movies were directed by the same handful of Hollywood directors. But these days five repeated nominees would be historical.
The question now is which one or two of these DGA nominees will be kicked out at the Oscars to make room for whom?
See downthread for my replacement guesses. If I had to pick one, I’d say Hamaguchi. (My fear: Reinaldo Marcus Green.) I think Branagh gets the boot; if multiple boots, Branagh, then Spielberg (hope not), then PTA.
Green would not get it. The “surprise” nominees tend to be arty films. There’s nothing arty about the by-the-number King Richard. I think the most vulnerable one is PTA since he’s the only one who missed Globes, and out of the 5 he’s also the most vulnerable to be snubbed at BAFTA. They might not relate to the L.A. scene from 70’s. Branagh has hit everywhere, but he would be the next vulnerable one. From your list of making it in, Hamaguchi makes the most sense. Would be ironic if Sorkin makes it.
Not always. Lasse Hallstroem for The Cider House Rules and Stephen Daldry for The Reader weren’t really nods for arty films.
Those aren’t examples of outside/arty nominees as the movies themselves were BP contenders.
The recent precedent for Green would be Lenny Abrahamson: another solid best picture nominee that’s winning an acting award gets in to best director because voters really like the movie. I don’t think this will happen but there is a path
I think Room is a lot more challenging in material and direction. The fact that it took place in a tiny room. The “talk” was how did he do it? No one is asking any such question w/ King Richard.
It’s weird: I admire PTA’s achievement, but I wasn’t blown away by the movie. So I wouldn’t be surprised. Neither King Richard nor Belfast (black-and-white cinematography notwithstanding) seem to be the “arty” choice, which makes critics’ darling Hamaguchi the clear choice. But the irony of Sorkin isn’t lost on me, and the politically astute (not correct) “surprise” choice of Miranda (probable Best Picture nominee), Gyllenhaal (possible BP nominee) or Hall (“lone director” spot) would also make sense.
I don’t think directors would go with Miranda. First, the film is good but really rough around the edges. Miranda has a lot to learn. This is not Lady Bird or Get Out in terms of quality.
And then again, directors have been very much opposed to actors directing lately. I think most of them won’t even consider Miranda.
We don’t need to judge Belfast if it’s arty or not since it doesn’t belong in the anomaly list. The potential eliminated ones can be eliminated for whatever reason aside from not being arty enough to make room for the surprise arty choice.
Unfortunately, I don’t see AMPAS would go for a female director in this anomaly choice. Whenever a woman director got nominated, her movie is usually one of the Oscar BP contenders, and even then they wouldn’t get in. Historically, they belong in the victim (eliminated) list, and they haven’t been in the surprise list. Other than Lina Wertmuller of course. But Lina was a world renowned director whose movie was widely celebrated. Passing despite being an American subject has been muted all season long aside from Negga. Hall and Gyllenhaal are first timers as well. Not only that, they are also actors turned directors. I just don’t think this elitist (and boys club) group is going to be generous toward them who have not one, two, but three strikes against them.
Obviously, I’m stating something that is rather unpleasant (it will hopefully change), but if we’re going to assess what AMPAS is going to do, we have to look at their past soberly.
All that being said, if one wants to do well in the prediction game in this category, it’s better to stick with all of the DGA choices. You will most likely get 4 out of 5. If you decide to swap somebody out and place someone else in, you might get 2 or more wrong.
I never do well in the prediction game. (Except with Parasite, where I was ahead of the curve.)
I think you don’t know who is most vulnerable of the men. The BAFTA jury will go out of its way to nominate three women. I think one of the male directors to be a foreigner, which leaves two slots. The BAFTAs have always loved Villeneuve, but who knows… Maybe Spielberg is snubbed by BAFTA? It wouldn’t matter, as voting will be over by the time BAFTA announces.
Why would it matter less that Spielberg would be snubbed by BAFTA after Oscar nomination voting closes than if he was snubbed by BAFTA before it?
Because I consider him vulnerable for an Oscar nomination. Not as vulnerable as Branagh, but vulnerable nevertheless.
But why would Oscar voters seeing him get snubbed be a bigger issue than him being snubbed? It’s not like him getting nominated at BAFTA would get these voters to watch the movie (because they’ve already seen it or a BAFTA nomination wouldn’t change their minds) or him getting snubbed somehow make voters think: “Well, I was considering voting for him but since BAFTA snubbed him, I’ll replace him with someone else”. The BAFTA snub would matter as much either way
If Branagh gets the boot for a Oscar nomination for director then it might be a blow for him to win the Screenplay Oscar.
2 out of 5 good calls for the DGA. I’ll take that as a good year!
You like only two from that list? Man, you’re tough to please.
Well, the list is not particularly impressive.
I adore Campion’s work. I respect PTA’s film. I don’t care about the rest.
Villeneuve’s film is impressive visually, but in terms of storytelling… it drags and fails to single out events in the story. I’m really cool on West Side Story, have been since day 1 when I posted my initial thoughts. And Belfast is absolutely unremarkable…
Who do you think would be better nominees of the ones that had realistic chance of a nomination? Taste is all relative, but four of the nominees are highly acclaimed films. I don’t think the DGA could have going for more acclaimed films, if we are being serious.
Campion and Sir K…
These five could not have been more obvious, actually the only major category that is, and I would be surprised if the Oscars are not exactly the same. I don’t know who would top these five. If I have to take a guess guess perhaps Hamaguchi for Drive My Car or del Toro for Nightmare Alley and they are both longshots. It doesn’t really make much difference as no one is beating Campion for the DGA or the Academy Award.
And in obvious years…they all seem to go on to the Oscar.
Let’s not forget that Spielberg has had some rather spotty Oscar experiences in the past. He’s not infallible and has experienced two major snubs. The Color Purple (11 nominations, but no Oscar nomination for SS) and Saving Private Ryan (he lost as producer of the film; SS won director, but AMPAS voted Shakespeare in Love Best Picture – still a shocker to many Oscar watchers). I wouldn’t be surprised if he were snubbed for Best Director for West Side Story. There are many Academy members who love the original 1960 film, and privately think he was rather arrogant for trying to remake a classic. Why didn’t he try new material if he wanted to make a musical? I guess I have a personal distaste for all of these remakes (The Birds, Psycho, Bonnie and Clyde, etc.) Hollywood is so franchise-driven these days. The only original, fresh material seems to be coming from the independent film makers . . . who often never get enough money to get their projects off the ground. If I see another Marvel comic franchise violent-driven, IQ-deficient action film, I’m going to scream.
First: Spielberg has made a lot of great movies ! Second West Side Story isn’t one of them! He and Kushner could have done Caroline and Change or Ragtime! Third he is arrogant! When he was up for Private Ryan He was acting like if you didn’t like his film which by the way I didn’t you were spitting on the graves of the people who saved Western Civilization ! And when Orson Welles was trying to raise money so he could do Cradle will Rock and had lunch with Spielberg and Spielberg suggested Amy Irving and Weles said i don’t think she ‘d be right for the part Weles wound up picking up the tab himself !
I wholeheartedly agree with you about franchise movies. I don’t see them anymore even on TV as I can’t remember one from another of those I have seen as they all seem sorta similar (much action, mayhem, violence and jokes), though I did enjoy the first Guardians of the Galaxy, but who is remaking The Birds or Bonnie and Clyde?!
Spielberg is the defining figure of American entertainment for the past 50 years. His
Legacy will long endure past this awards season. I’m more excited for his much more personal film next season.
My final list going in (I reserve the right to make last-second changes). Please do not mistake my predicting anyone or any film as championing said person or film:
Best Picture
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick…BOOM!
West Side Story
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Catriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjenue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Best Actor
Will Smith-King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch-Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington-Tragedy of Macbeth
Andrew Garfield- Tick Tick…Boom
Bradley Cooper-Nightmare Alley
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain-Eyes of Tammy Faye
Nicole Kidman-Being the Ricardo’s
Lady Gaga-House of Gucci
Olivia Colman-The Lost Daughter
Jennifer Hudson-Respect
Best Supporting Actor
Jodi Smit-McKee-Power of the Dog
Troy Kotsur-CODA
Ben Affleck-The Tender Bar
J.K. Simmons-Being the Ricardos
Corey Hawkins-Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Supporting Actress
Arianna DeBose-West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst-Power of the Dog
Caltriona Balfe-Belfast
Aunjenune Ellis-King Richard
Cate Blanchett-Nightmare Alley
Best Director
Jane Campion-Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh-Belfast
Steven Spielberg-West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve-Dune
Ryusuke Hamagucchi-Drive My Car
Best Picture
Power of the Dog
Belfast
West Side Story
King Richard
Dune
Nightmare Alley
Being The Ricardos
CODA
Licorice Pizza
Tragedy of Macbeth
Mostly I think you’re right but at least one per category seems more like what you’re hoping for rather than actually think will happen.
Cooper is more likely for Licorice Pizza than Nightmare Alley.
That all looks strikingly similar to mine.
Any differences?
I congratulate you on your daring insight and willingness to go out on a limb with your best picture nominations. It’s rare we see such rugged individualism in this day and age. Well done! That deserves a Spice Girls clap (which is infinitely better than the played-out slow clap)
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d926c212eaeb3c2de07bff193436186860ca80185379f94b75bbf9a3b594e57b.gif
You play the sarcasm game well.
My goal each year is to be as right as possible, not to go out on a limb and be “individualist”. Like I said, this isn’t my hopes list or my own personal list. This is what I’m predicting a very predictable Awards group will pick.
EDIT: I think I see what you’re saying, in that my BP list is exactly the same as the PGA nods. This is actually the first year where that is the case.
I’ll explain: Since 2011 I’ve not had to worry about making a shortlist of ten films. I could make one of eight, and pick two alternates, or pick nine and one alternate. This year, for the first time in a decade, I have to have ten shortlisted. I felt pretty good about eight of my choices and more or less okay with the ninth, but could not pick a tenth for the life of me.
My “definites” were Power of the Dog, Belfast, West Side Story, Dune, Don’t Look Up and King Richard. My “pretty sures” were Licorice Pizza, CODA and tick, tick…BOOM!. But the last one was throwing me. Nightmare Alley? Drive My Car? House of Gucci? Tragedy of Macbeth? Lost Daughter? Being the Ricardos? None seemed to have enough momentum to drag themselves above the rest. I figured (and still do) that this last nominee will be a surprise, like The Blind Side was in 2009.
But I need to actually have a prediction there, and since the PGA’s went for Being the Ricardos and not Spider-Man, that gives it just enough of a push.
-I think I’d guess something like Drive My Car over tick, tick … BOOM!. Love TTB, but I dunno.
-Actor looks spot on.
-Actress, same. Though, I wonder about someone else getting in over Gaga; who I think is weaker than we think.
-Supp. Actor and Supp. Actress look spot on to what I’m thinking.
That feels pretty safe – predict the gold derby top 5 in every category except picture where you take the PGA 10. No shade – you’ll probably do well by playing it safe – I just can’t bring myself to do it.
Mine is quite similar.
Sort of shocked Anderson made it in. I mean he couldn’t make it in for Phantom Thread
Phantom Thread was quite a late breaker, if I remind well.
And a most deserving nominee
Indeed. He kicked McDonagh out
I liked McDonagh
Me, too. I wanted Three Billboards to win BP. There’s also a podcast with an awesome parody of BP contenders, and the Three Billboards song was, “Three red billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, so much brutality, McDonagh, Martin McDonagh, I think you’re gonna be the one-ah.” It was to the tune of some bouncy 70’s song, I think. Not that anybody cared about this reverie, but I had it in my head.
Nothing in particular against his pictures but he was quite overhyped that year.
I really liked In Bruges, I hated Three Billboards more than any Best Picture nominee. Even more than Joker. I think the problem for me was that while Joker was obviously bad, Three Billboards was deceptively bad.
I loved In Bruges too. And I’d lie if I said I didn’t like Three Billboards. While I found its writing quite inspired, its directing, on the other hand, didn’t seem outstanding to me.
I found In Bruges to be unique comedy with some beautiful and emotional pay off. I did not expect it to be that good. It’s not a nasty film that’s deliberately trying to offend, but a film that actually cares about its characters. On the hand, Three Billboards was a Coens wanna be, but without the flair in direction, great dialogue or exquisite editing. The clearest difference between the two films is how they treat Peter Dinklage’s characters. It seems Mcdonagh didn’t really care about his characters in Three Billboards and deliberately made them all out to be antagonistic. In Bruges he made us care about a serial killer who was also kind of a misogynist,
ablest and just offensive person. That’s great filmmaking. In Three Billboards, he made us hate a mother seeking justice for her murdered daughter. That’s bad filmmaking.
agree. Albeit with a wonderful central performance. Still would have given it to Hawkins though
I would have given to Hawkins, too. I didn’t love The Shape of Water, but I loved the many parts of it, including direction, Cinematography, production Design and Score and, of Course, Hawkins who brings it all together.
Sally Hawkins always brings such humanity and accesibility in her screen work. I recall Frances on the way to collecting BAFTA for Billboards, stopped and acknowledged Sally, perhaps in part as she expected the home town girl to win; in part as respect to another truly great performance she was up against.
Yes, that’s true. It’s only her performance that convinced me of the love between her character and the monster.
But he dig get an Oscar nomination for Thread and he deserves one for Pizza !
Licorice Pizza is much more of a crowd-pleaser and a seemingly locked Best Picture nominee, which these nominations seem to gravitate toward.
So to summarise the super Thursday as I’ve been calling it:
Licorice Pizza and Dune won the day getting into all 4 guilds.
Belfast and Power of the Dog would be right there with them getting into 3/3 of the guilds where they are eligible.
Tick tick… boom would be next, also having an exceptional day with kinda 3.5 of the 4 (first time feature at dga but not full director). Maybe I should say 4/5
Then 3/4 is West Side Story, King Richard, Don’t Look Up
Then 2/4 is Being the Ricardos, CODA, French Dispatch, which for where they got in and how they are all doing in the race thus far was a really good day for all of them.
Nothing else showed up more than once but it is worth noting No Time to Die showing up in the harder to get into drama category at ACE (it could possibly get an editing nomination at Oscar a la the force awakens) and Nightmare Alley getting into screenplay which I don’t think will translate but does continue to show that the industry likes it more than we originally thought.
So to summarise the super Thursday as I’ve been calling it:
Licorice Pizza and Dune won the day getting into all 4 guilds.
Belfast and Power of the Dog would be right there with them getting into 3/3 of the guilds where they are eligible.
Tick tick… boom would be next, also having an exceptional day with kinda 3.5 of the 4 (first time feature at dga but not full director). Maybe I should say 4/5
Then 3/4 is West Side Story, King Richard, Don’t Look Up
Then 2/4 is Being the Ricardos, CODA, French Dispatch, which for where they got in and how they are all doing in the race thus far was a really good day for all of them.
Nothing else showed up more than once but it is worth noting No Time to Die showing up in the harder to get into drama category at ACE (it could possibly get an editing nomination at Oscar a la the force awakens) and Nightmare Alley getting into screenplay which I don’t think will translate but does continue to show that the industry likes it more than we originally thought.
Freaky Friday for us Alex 🙂
Haha yes I know but everything runs on American time XD
darn those Americans – we are so ahead of them – and you are in front of me! Super Thursday was ‘like, so yesterday!!!” 🙂
Happy for PTA here. I didn’t love LP though, but I want him to win his first Oscar in screenplay.
Will Oscar go 5/5?
I am extremely happy for Paul Thomas Anderson and Denis Villeneuve but no Guillermo Del Toro? Kenneth Branagh can only wish he could ever reach his filmmaking genius.
The Power of the Dog screenwriter(s) were not nominated! Surprising.
Not eligible.
I hope that Branagh misses in the Oscars and Hamaguchi gets in
Please no. The screeches about the Branagh snub could help Belfast win.
They could always vote for Branagh in Original Screenplay, going by his Globe win.
THIS!!!! Couldn’t agree more. A dream top 5 of mine would be like that:
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Guillermo Del Toro
Paul Thomas Anderson
Steven Spielberg
Either Jane Campion or Denis Villeneuve
This but I’d go for Del Toro or Rebecca Hall
Or Sean Baker!
Hooray for Rebecca Hall!!
We dodged Gucci, we dodged McKay. All in all, not a bad day.
After all the discussion of Gucci getting a picture nomination, if it can’t get in at PGA or WGA with the ineligibilities I don’t think it is the sort of film to get in at Oscar. I feel like its SAG nominations will put it in line with something like Trumbo or Bombshell – it’ll get at least one acting award and at least a techs or 2 but it was never a best picture thing.
Even during this time of financial trouble, PGA wouldn’t stoop so low. That Trumbo and Bombshell (even got 4 nods) SAG comparison is quite apt. These SAG-AFTRA folks just name check their ballots. A real popularity contest.
And I maintain my prediction that if an acting nom does happen for Gucci … it’s Leto.
I do still think both could happen
I think she will. It’s not a super strong year for this category and she ACTS like the Academy likes, but God, I sure hope he doesn’t. I really hope there are some surprises in this category like Haim, Cruz & Zegler over more famous “movie stars” who have done better work in past years.
Is there a chart with a summary of all Guild awards somewhere?
“Second second” is the new third?
tick, tick … BOOM! had a phenomenal day.
Made PGA, DGA (new director), WGA and ACE.
Could be a real battle for Actor with Garfield, Smith and Cumberbatch. SAG will likely show who is strongest.
I wouldn’t choose him, but you can almost take it to the bank that Smith goes home with the Oscar.
Both Cumberbatch and Garfield are definitely viable options in Lead Actor but it must be said, King Richard had a good day, too, with PGA+WGA+ACE nominations so we may just be looking at a clean sweep in the end.
Yeah, I have Smith in the lead (narrative, big day today). But if Cumberbatch/Garfield win some combo of SAG/BAFTA … gonna be pretty close, methinks.
If Smith loses SAG to either, we have a race.
I think if he wins, it’s done.
Oh, Goddess, please, please, please…
I’m already dreading his speeches…..only Garfield and Cumberbatch can spare us now. I don’t think it’s Smiths just yet, but it is definitely looking very likely.
could anything be worse than Matthew McConaughey’s ‘alright alright alright’ ranting? Garfield and Cumberbatch would give eloquent and erudite speeches. Not sure what Will Smith will offer. Looking likely he’ll win at least one if not more of the majors.
What I genuinely don’t get about the Will Smith narrative this year is the whole “dammit about damn time he is so damn overdue” thing.
How ? He has been a high-profile movie star for almost 30 years now and doesn’t have a single universally acclaimed (81+ Metacritic) film under his belt AND he got 2 Oscar nominations in Lead Actor no less, both times he actually tried to deliver serious work and let the record show his star power definitely helped him on both occasions because the reviews were not great (65, 64 MC, respectively).
If his King Richard performance were some earth-shattering, untouchable, creative arrival, I would get this level of buzz, but to me it was just a good-not-great film / performance, so the hype and his frontrunner status and the film’s lock status in BP, are all very surprising to me.
Seems to be the actor rather than the acting. I know he isn’t liked as Bullock was, but like McConaughey, the persona overshadows the performance itself. Maybe, I dunno, I am not convinced yet he will win at Oscars but he has showed up everywhere on best of lists.
I’m rooting for Andrew so badly. Benedict would be a great choice as well
Could Tragedy of MacBeth gasped its last BP hope today?
For nomination?
Nah, it’s still good. Or at least it has a decent shot. The only thing it really missed was the PGA, but some BP nominees always miss that.
Globes. It needed a BP shot there.
Homer: It’s just a little dirty. It’s still good, it’s still good!
[Homer and Bart keep running after the grill. The grill rolls into traffic (miraculously missing every car) and crashes into a bridge railing. The pig keeps going and ends up splashing into the river.]
Homer: It’s just a little slimy. It’s still good, it’s still good!
[The pig floats downstream to a dam where it gets caught in the spillway, blocking it. Water builds up behind the pig until the pressure pushes the pig the rest of the way through the spillway, blasting it into the sky. Homer and Bart watch from on top of the dam.]
Homer: It’s just a little airborne. It’s still good, it’s still good!
Bart: [crestfallen] It’s gone.
Homer: [even more crestfallen] I know
My life in every Oscar season
Sorry, I was making a lighthearted quip. The Sampsons have a meme for everything as they have done everything.
Why I keep my emotions and opinions out of it. I admit to some bias, but I usually try to weigh my bias against the math of awards season. For example, I’m predicting Peter Dinklage instead of Javier Bardem because the buzz for his performance seems a little stronger. It’s possible that I’m wrong, and that my appreciation for him has blinded me to reality, but the buzz for him seemed very strong until the SAG snub, but the reality is that his buzz only died a little and Bardem’s only gained a very little. It helps that Dinklage carried his film while Bardem played second fiddle to Kidman.
I’d love to see Ann Dowd nominated for Mass. I don’t think it’s going to happen because the only group of note to nominate her so far are the Critic’s Choice, and by itself that’s just not enough.
TToM missed some pretty major, needed precursors if it wants to be taken seriously as a Best Picture contender. It needed the Globe. It didn’t get it. It needed the PGA. It failed. It needed the DGA. No love there, either. Missing one of these, or even two, is still better than missing all three. It didn’t even get a SAG Case nom (not that those mean anything on their own, either). Now, this doesn’t mean it’s impossible, but it does mean it will be something of a surprise if it happens.
Not that I’m in favor of that; I loved it. I just have to face reality. Denzel is pretty much a lock for Best Actor, but I will be pleasantly surprised if we see a BP nod for it.
Was it not also in play for WGA? (As a serious alternative, I mean.)
I guess it could have been, after the Scripter, but I always felt like the writers wouldn’t nominate Shakespeare text in Best Writing.
Yeah, I thought that’s why you didn’t think very highly of its chances. And maybe you’re right that it wasn’t very likely. I’m not good at estimating such things. 🙂
I’m not putting it on my top ten anymore but that doesn’t mean its chances are shot. Just imho, if it manages the nod, it will be a “despite everything” kinda nod. But Washington is in.
Same questions for The Lost Daughter and Nightmare Alley. I think all of these movies, along with Gucci, are polarizing for a preferential ballot. But some of these are the kinds of less populist, fanbase-driven films you wouldn’t expect the PGA to recognize anyway.
This is off-topic and perhaps at least partly because I now know that the race is starting to go in a different direction but I finally watched Spencer today and how exactly did people think that Stewart was going to win an Oscar for this? It’s not just a really good performance in a weird movie, it’s a weird performance in a weird movie
I did say, after watching it, that she might be too good for the Oscars…
I’ve been saying since I saw it (10/14/21) that she would not win for this performance in this film. I also said that she would definitely be nominated, which I still believe.
Crushes mar objectivity.
Honestly I just saw this a week ago and I kind of feel the same way. I don’t know how “accurate” it was in terms of mannerisms, etc. haven’t watched much Di footage. But I thought the performance was pretty good – and the movie was very pretty – and I’m sympathetic to the general idea of the movie … my biggest issue was, by far, the writing. I mean … it was just so … off putting and challenging and not in a good way. Some of the things they had KStew say out loud were just so … ridiculous. That it did take away from the performance for me.
This movie would have been far, far better IMO if it were an ambiguous, original character, just “princess Di inspired” rather than historical fiction.
I think if you just make it a vague “princess Di inspired” film, you
have a completely different movie on your hands. This specific
screenplay and Stewart’s performance feel so strongly linked to a public
perception of who princess Diana was and sprawling from there that I think taking any distance to the public persona they’re riffing on
would just remove any meaning from it. So if you’d push away from the specifics, I think you’d have to write a more fully rounded character and give this character more space to gradually build this anxiety within them to balance it out. And this would take away the thing that I like about the way Larraín and Stewart work with this performance (in a way that’s very similar to what Larraín and Portman did with Jackie): the approach isn’t in my opinion to really “get to know” this real person, they don’t really take the character’s visual and create a conventional lead character around it but at the same time the performance doesn’t feel like mannerisms for mannerisms’ sake. Instead there’s a weird middle ground where it feels like they animate the public perception of this person and let it play out a decicedly unreal experience. This is really the interesting part of the movie in my opinion because eventually for me Larraín’s style has a dreaminess which I really enjoy watching but that for some reason keeps me at a slight distance from the film (a problem that I seem to have with him in general with the exception of Jackie). I for some reason kept thinking “what if Claire Denis had directed this” and kept coming back to thinking that I think I’d like the movie more but the central performance (given by Stewart or someone else) would lose this quality to it. So I feel like basically this script, Larraín and Stewart is the only combination that gives us this type of performance in this movie and I kind of want to keep it even if I think a more fleshed out character (possibly with the added distance) matched with changing at least the director might actually make the movie better
I mean there’s a lot of qualities I appreciate. I like the creaminess. I like the psychological stuff (in fact I would have enjoyed if this had been amped up even more). The Anne Boleyn parts were a highlight. I like the idea of using and toying with historical fact and perception to tell a very different and personal story – I just think that in this case the writing was honestly really terrible, distractingly so, specifically the dialogue, and wonder whether it might have improved if it weren’t trying so hard to replicate what Princess Di might or might not have said in that specific situation, and just let KStews face do the work. Maybe I would have enjoyed it more if it were a silent film, too.
Exactly the reason I, too, was skeptical from the start. (Even before seeing it – just knowing Larrain’s style.) Just seemed like there was no alternative at times. (Pre-Ricardos, then after its unexpectedly bad reviews.) Like all of the others had even more unconvincing cases.
Queen Jane!!
Netflix gets 4 out of 6 first time noms- what Netflix bias?
Well, that’s a relief. I was dreading a nomination for Adam McKay (remembering that he wasn’t getting Best Director nominations for The Big Short until DGA, so I thought they might do the same with Don’t Look Up), and I’m also relieved because I love Licorice Pizza and now, with this, its Best Picture nomination at the Oscars seems practically guaranteed (even if PTA doesn’t make it to the Best Director lineup, I’ll still be happy).
That first-time director list is also interesting…
Wait, wasn’t CODA eligible for First-Time Director? Snub!
No, Sian Heder is not a first-time director.
Would’ve subbed out Heder for PTA in director, not first feature.
In first time director?
For director itself.
I wouldn’t. It’s one of my favorite PTA films, so I’m happy to see it here (and I like CODA fine, but not enough to nominate it here).
It’s her second feature
Thank you. I just know I didn’t predict Shiva or the foreign film (did I stick to Passing?!), so I can’t remember what else I predicted that missed. Zola?
A very solid five. I’d be hard pressed to pick a more deserving set. I hope this holds for the Oscars.
So the DGA quintet rarely repeats at the Oscars so who will be in and who will be out ?
I think PTA may be out and Hamaguchi in ?
Respectfully suggest there will be no Parasite 2.0 this year.
I don’t think that DMC has as much support with the industry as it did with critics. Nothing so far suggests it’s a player beyond Foreign Film.
I also don’t think its International Feature nomination is locked.
what movie do you think could win that category?
I still think The Hand of God is the most crowdpleasing of the bunch, so I’m predicting that. Although Drive My Car could also win, I just think that it could get snubbed as well.
A Hamaguchi nomination in BD is not a Parasite 2.0 situation.
Directors of foreign language films make the cut in BD without corresponding BP nominations, all the time. Just in the last 3 years we had Thomas Vinterberg and Pawel Pawlikowski.
Woman in the Dunes, 8 1/2, Divorce Italian Style, The Battle of Algiers, Ran…this isn’t a new phenomenon
Are comments listing foreign directors who got nom’d for BD but not BP automatically flagged for removal? What in the great blue blazes is going on on this site
NGNG: LMM. I don’t want that to happen but looks increasingly likely considering how well Tick Tick Boom did with Guilds today (PGA, WGA, ACE + First Time Director DGA). he also has Encanto which will win Animated cause AMPAS name-checks Disney.
I agree.
I’m pretty confident PTA is in. By the way, Licorice Pizza did have a great day today, looks like a film well beloved with critics and industry folks.
I’d rather see Spielberg miss, but a Hamaguchi nom is still a very risky pick – even though I would love to see that!
I have been leaning toward this as well, despite correctly predicting the DGA quintet. PTA was an easy enough get today. And he may still get in. But Hamaguchi feels like every other directors branch surprise of the last few years. Also, Licorice Pizza is filmed so much in close-up. It’s not very directorially, visually distinctive. For PTA or otherwise. It always would have been easily classified as a screenplay-driven film, but I still say this having seen the film. On the other hand, it could still be Branagh getting knocked out, as many have been calling for.
Directing is more than where you put the camera. Directors aren’t credited enough for the times when they coax and capture incredible things from actors. PTA has been doing that his entire career, and he sure as heck did it with LP. Taking two newcomers and getting THOSE performances … that’s directing.
That’s true too. I guess I wasn’t wowed by the staging of the film. It’s not very visual to me, like some of his past films. It’s all in the writing and the chemistry of the actors. But it’s a special film that isn’t pure awards bait.
I find PTA’s directing in Licorice pizza truly magistral, specially in the truck scene.
The truck scene is one of the absolute best scenes of the year.
Branagh is likeliest out, I’m still feeling that.
If Coen were to replace him, I’d dance or something. Dream lineup there, five of my absolute favourites of the year.
I will say if either PTA or Branagh get snubbed in Best Director, the one snubbed there will be the one winning Original Screenplay thanks to a combination of consolation prize vibes + lack in internal competition with themselves.
I see no chance of PTA getting snubbed. If even the DGA nominates him, would the Directors’ Branch truly snub him?
I could see that happen, yes. Kind of a reserved Phantom Thread vibe.
They COULD, but he’s looking safer by the minute. Branagh seems shakier but we all know these stats are useless. At the end of the day the Academy could very well nominate Branagh over PTA and though heads will explode it won’t be THAT surprising
To be honest, it would be fitting if after an unexpectedly good DGA lineup we got an unexpectedly bad Oscar BD lineup.
Well you jinxed it, not I 😉
What STATS, exactly, say Branagh is shakier? He’s been nominated pretty much everywhere even by critics groups, his movie is clearly immensely popular and strong across the board, co-leading both Globe and Critics Choice nominations. He’s respected and a previous nominee.
People here seem to think he’s shaky, for whatever reason
The only reason is they’re not fans of Belfast‘s direction and think the directors’ branch is possibly too elitist to nominate him, too, as a result. It’s a decent argument, but while some have missed for such reasons in the past, plenty others haven’t. And those that have weren’t in such strong positions, with the sole possible exception of the Argo year.
Peter Farrelly too, I would argue
Green Book was nowhere near leading the Critics Choice and Globe nominations. (Belfast co-leads both, if I’m not mistaken.) Farrelly had been snubbed by plenty of critics groups, as far as I remember, possibly the majority, while Branagh only missed with 1-2 (that announced nominees, not just winners). Farrelly had a far less prestigious body of work than Branagh does and no prior Oscar nominations. Green Book wasn’t the early front-runner, as far as I know. Definitely wasn’t the front-runner for as long as Belfast was. Hardly comparable at all, in my opinion.
Probably some small chance, still…
Very hard to say. If either one misses, it just suggests stronger support for the other film, at least among the directors who will also vote for the screenplay winner. I mean, if PTA gets both noms, it’s not like anyone is going to predict him to win Best Director anyway. And if Branagh doesn’t miss any key noms, that shows Belfast is still solidly in the race (no worse than top 3), and the people who like that film will just vote for it in all the top races rather than want to spread the wealth for the likes of Campion and PTA.
Belfast is still no worse than top 1… 🙂
I think (despite as you say the rarity of it) that it will either be 5 for 5, or Del Toro replaces PTA.
Nooooooo! Don’t even joke about it.
I am not joking though. I will say though a Branagh snub wouldn’t surprise me all that much, either.
What WOULD surprise me ? The Director’s Branch snubbing Campion, Spielberg, Villeneuve.
I think the really weird thing is DGA nominating PTA. That’s not what we expected. Oscars are his territory. I think Spielberg and Branagh are more vulnerable.
Maybe, WSS has been definitely showing very unexpected signs of weakness this week.
Yes, I don’t think it’s seen as essential. Well done, but that’s about it.
Could be the general industry sentiment for all we know. The ACE / ASC snubs in particular seem odd.
What’s gone wrong with WSS? Why would ACE/ ASC snub a movie like that ..it now seems highly unlikely for it to win BP
PTA is only nominated one more time at the Oscars than at DGA. Phantom Thread was a late breaker. DGA didn’t have time to watch it.
That group is harder for auteurs. I know that PTA is becoming and accepted by the mainstream film industry but his still doesn’t sit comfortably with them. They must look at his filmography and weep. They are a jealous lot.
If, and of course only if, PTA got dropped at the Oscars for another auteur, say, Hamaguchi, then we know that PTA’s career is headed toward mainstream. Ironic, wouldn’t it?
He might become like Scorsese: an elder statesman of Hollywood after many years on the outside.
It has been 5/5 before, and every time it has been, it has matched my predictions going in.
Since I started predicting in 1994, we have had:
1998
2002
2004
2005
2009
Sure, it’s been a while. Maybe that means it’s high time for it to happen again? After all, there aren’t really any curveballs in this list.
Yeah, that’s why I said “rarely”. It happens. But 5 times in the last 24 years is just that : rare. Could happen again this year for all I know though.
I guess my main point is that when it happens, it’s pretty predictable. Like I said, I lined up my top five, waited for the DGA and they were a perfect match all five of those years, then all five directors went on to the Oscars.
But every time I changed my lineup to match the DGA, I’ve been wrong by at least one person. Sometimes two people. Several years I kicked myself for changing my predictions; If I’d just gone with my gut I would have been 5/5.
Three times in twenty-four years.
Neither ’02 (Jackson-DGA, Almodovar-AMPAS) nor ’04 (Forster-DGA, Leigh-AMPAS) were 5/5 between the DGA and the Academy directors.
I think the “international” slot could go to Del Toro. He’s still Mexican, though the film’s genre leanings may be a factor. I can still see Almodovar if Parallel Mothers campaign continues to pick up. Hamaguchi is also possible due to the goodwill it received from critics but my issue with Drive My Car is the running time. It may not be with the critics but might be a factor with the Academy voters.
Rarely, but not never… 5/5 makes sense to me. (Or maybe Coen could get in. Instead of Spielberg, perhaps? I guess PTA could still be snubbed, as you say. But, really, 5/5 seems most logical this time. Hamaguchi… makes some sense, but I just have this feeling he’s not happening. And I’ve had it ever since it was first discussed as a possibility.)
Thank you for that PTA nom.
Let’s end with that Don’t look up nonsense too, please.
No on PTA, but McKay’s chances are slim and none, and slim just left town.
Careful cocky boy.
You know that if Villeneuve gets snubbed I’ll be laughing until his next snub.
As delightful as i find our friend and his preferences Villeneuve is as close to a lock as you can get. Dune has hit all the guilds. It’s safe
Only vile venom, and not logic nor sense of justice, gives me that hope.
He disliked my comment, he’s mad with fear.
Well you can lead a horse to water…
This has been my predicted Oscar lineup for quite some time. Is this a rare year when DGA and Oscar matches up 5 for 5?
I thought a more populist film like Dont Look Up or King Richard had a shot with DGA. With the assumed Oscar 5 all making the cut, it seems that one of them will falter only if the directors branch decides to opt for an international director, namely Hamaguchi for Drive my Car.
big deal is prayers for the stolen in first time directors category… it’s still been in my top two non-english lang films i’ve seen this year… mexico’s submission just got a boost?
Not necessarily, since Mexico’s submission from last year was also nominated for First Time Director at the DGA and wasn’t nominated at the Oscars (which was I’m No Longer Here), and the same thing happened with Atlantics two years ago, but it does put it in the conversation. I admit I did a double-take, because Tatiana Huezo is actually a well-respected Ariel-winning filmmaker in Mexico and was wondering why she was in first-time director, but this is her first narrative feature, so that tracks.
Why do my comments keeping getting removed? I may be outrageous but I’m not beyond the pale
do you swear? I noticed that when I do my post gets out on hold.
That explains one. I also had what I suppose was a too hot take about Campion for general audiences lol
the expiative thing is new. No idea if it’s just AD or Discuss in general. But looks like it’s AD.
Oh! To be cursed with quick wit and encyclopedic film knowledge!
I was just saying that yesterday…
A man/woman after my own heart
Woman, more or lessyou do look a little pale! Are you over the dreaded C?
I am indeed!
good to read. 🙂
They removed all my list of tops…
That explains the lack of taste around here, to be honest.
Just kidding. Maybe not. Maybe yes
I thought it was just long Covid (another joke that got removed)
Nothing smelled rotten in Denmark.
I list 4 of the 5 nominated films at 4.5 stars or higher, which is certainly the highest average for any DGA lineup ever, I don’t even need to check.
My personal favorite is 1975 (the same as the best picture lineup that year and that’s my favorite best picture lineup at the Oscars)
That is a tough one to beat
It’s a great one, for sure!
Paul Thomas Anderson!!!
Very respectable list (and the only one I can’t get excited about—Belfast—I haven’t seen yet, so I also can’t complain about it).
PTA? Seriously? King Richard DOA. Except for Licorice Pizza, the cream of the crop made it. And that’s the way it should be.
I think you would actually like Licorice Pizza. It’s a very conventionally entertaining film.
Yeah PTA seriously! I liked it more than Prune , , a cross between Brokeback Mountain and There Wil Be Blood with Psycho thrown in at the end and a remake of a sixty year old musical !
Just wait for the directors branch. Drive My Car will get its well-deserved nod.
Nope. Thanks for playing, DMC. Foreign Film will be your parting gift in March. Thought for sure PGA would toss No Way Home a bone. Spiderman also finis.
So it is just the obvious 5…Fair enough… Really nothing to say other than 4 will probably be in for Oscar
Villeneuve is so winning in 2024. They will not deny him and Dune Pt 2.
Providing it all comes together yeah I kinda agree
Why not now? I don’t want some indie flick to beat him out then. Honor Dune NOW.
Or not lol
It’s really hard to give half a film Best Picture.
But Dune: Part One will walk away with a handful of below-the-line Oscars anyway, almost certainly the most awarded film of the night I think.
Not enough. This is the best chance in 50 years for a true sci-fi film to finally end the bias against that genre. Cannot take the chance of an arthouse darling swooping in and beating it in ’24. Especially when this will be perceived as a makeup call for Campion losing back in the day for The Piano.
But, again, it’s really hard to give half a film Best Picture.
Like, it would be hard for me to put it at number one, and I absolutely love the film.
It’s Oscar politics. I don’t understand why people don’t get this
I’d love Dune to be honored twice but this is clearly Dog and Campion’s to lose.
I like these five. I predict that there’s a 3 or 4 out of 5 match with Oscars. Drive My Car is more likely to show up in the Oscar 5 than the DGA.
Branagh is vulnerable but so is Villeneuve, maybe even Spielberg.
No way Villeneuve is.
Yeah Dune has hit pretty much every guild. As as Safe a bet for a nom as anything
Villeneuve is almost as locked as Campion.
I would’ve intuitively thought that Branagh was vulnerable, but Belfast is very strong with guilds. Even those who you’d think wouldn’t honor it have so far.
Not actually true. It missed CAS, ADG, CDG. It missed both supporting noms at SAG. It hasn’t gotten any unexpected guilds.
Do we have the first feature list?
Maggie Gyllenhaal, THE LOST DAUGHTER
Rebecca Hall, PASSING
Tatiana Huezo, PRAYERS FOR THE STOLEN
Lin-Manuel Miranda, TICK TICK BOOM
Michael Sarnoski, PIG
Emma Seligman, SHIVA BABY
Does Lin-Manuel Miranda actually win this?
Pig….heh heh heh… 😀 Why not L Double-M? Shiva Baby? saw the (2020) on IMDB, then saw it was released last April.
“Why not L Double-M?”
Well I’d say mostly because his film is bad, but others might be more diplomatic.
I despise all things Jonathan Larson but LLM’a direction was quite good for a first timer
Definitely. I hate Rent and have always found Larson annoying, but LMM and Garfield surprised me. It’s one of my favorites this year.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d267e33d1a562b8b9406b1389438e6009a928349d3c61bfdf36ca8945ca7898d.png
I thought the entire film was quite insufferable.
That’s Jonathan Larson for ya
Agree completely
Yes, it’s good!
Off the top of my head:
The Lost Daughter
Passing
Shiva Baby
tick, tick… BOOM!
Pig
Prayers for the Stolen
I think I’d go with Passing, but I also respected TTB and Lost Daughter. I did not see the others.
Actually my vote would be Shiva Baby. I recommend it.
I remember hearing about that on one of the podcasts. Oh, can someone please help me? At the beginning of /filmcast or Filmspotting, they play a clip from a film where a man says, “You’re not interested in art?” and a woman responds flatly, “No.” What movie is that from?
Shiva Baby is firmly in my Top 10 and Rachel Sennott really should be in the conversation.
I liked Pig the most out of the ones I’ve seen but I’ve got a feeling Gyllenhaal wins this one. TLD is peaking at the right time
Agreed.
Why 6 nominees?
A tie for fifth place?
Weird choice
I find this list rather dull.
My own preference:
1. Jane Campion
2. PTA
(the rest I don’t care about but for the sake of ranking them)
3. Villeneuve
4. Branagh
5. Spielberg
Excellent.
That’s as expected as it gets.
AND AS GOOD AS IT GETS!
PTA! Spielberg!
And above all the queen herself, Jane Campion…
Of course, hail Queen Jane!
The Queen of very pretty, interesting but ultimately unsatisfying movies
Does seem to be her thing… 🙂
Has there ever even been a single surprise DGA nominee? (Going by the “top 5 in the BP race” rule.) They’re just the most boring awards group of all time.
But it was difficult to determine the top5 of the BP race. I thought PTA might easily miss, and after the ACE snub, I wasn’t confident in Spielberg either.
Well, the top 5 in my table (which are also the DGA 5) are and were, actually, quite far ahead of the rest, so I would disagree. These were clearly the 5, at least according to pre-industry precursors.