The major nominations for PGA, DGA, ACE, and WGA all dropping all on the same day was illuminating. Since people were voting more or less at the same time, and since they did not have many groups influencing their choices, we got a mostly organic picture of what the industry voters actually like this year. What did it tell us? Well, not that much more than what we already knew. There were no major surprises, I don’t think. Probably the biggest surprise for me was that I thought there would be more of a crossover from SAG ensemble to DGA. But only Belfast crossed over with both guilds; I expected King Richard or Don’t Look Up to do the same. I was also surprised to see Being the Ricardos land on the PGA’s list. And I was surprised that neither Spider-Man: Way Home or No Time to Die showed up at PGA.
But mostly, it was a reminder that the Oscar game is a well-oiled machine by now, even during COVID times, even without audiences. Mostly, those of us who cover the race seems to have cracked the code in figuring out how the race will go. That wasn’t always the case. We’ve all gotten so used to it now that we forget it used to be kind of a guessing game to figure out which movies would be chosen. If you look at the independent scene or at films from other countries, it is still wide open. But figuring out which movies will meet the specific criteria and tastes of voters collectively isn’t that hard anymore.
How is it all shaking out?
Coming in extremely strong is Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast, which hit every major guild except the WGA, where it was inegilible. Had it been eligible, it would have landed there too. That shows strength across the board with every kind of voter. Of course, that doesn’t mean everything when it comes to picking a winner. Plenty of films have hit every group and were well-liked across the board only to go home empty-handed, like The Trial of the Chicago 7 last year, for instance.
It was a surreal way to see the awards all fanned out like a deck of cards. Mostly, there is a consensus that has built up for Best Picture. We’ll take the DGA first:
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Dune
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
I figure the next two would then be the SAG ensemble nominees:
King Richard
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Then the PGA adds the next two:
tick, tick…BOOM!
Being the Ricardos
It is very unlikely that this will go 10 for 10 at the Oscars. It might. If it happens any year, it will be this year because voting is all happening at once. If you look at the numbers for these:
PGA ≈ 8,000 or so voters
DGA ≈ 16,000
WGA ≈ 10,000
ACE ≈ 6,000
ASC ≈ 380
The Academy is roughly 9,000 voting members. You’re not going to see MUCH wiggle room here. But the last two slots will probably feature tick, tick…BOOM! and Being the Ricardos battling it out with Nightmare Alley and The Lost Daughter.
Every other year, the Oscars left off the following movies from PGA as they headed for their eight or nine nominees:
2020
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Borat
2019
Knives Out
2018
Crazy Rich Asians
A Quiet Place
2017
The Big Sick
Wonder Woman
I, Tonya
2016
Deadpool
2015
Straight Outta Compton
Sicario
Ex Machina
2014
Nightcrawler
Gone Girl
Unbroken
2013
Saving Mr. Banks
2012
Moonrise Kingdom
Skyfall
2011
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Bridesmaids
The Ides of March
2010
The Town
2009
Invictus
When you look at the movies that land in the Oscar race that weren’t at PGA in the era of the expanded ballot, we have:
2021 — The Father
2017 — Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread
2015 — Room
2014 — Selma
2013 — Philomena
2012 — Amour
2011 — Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Tree of Life
2010 — Winter’s Bone
2009 — The Blind Side
The only thing to really look at is that in the years where both the PGA and the Oscars had ten each, there was only one film that was swapped out. In 2009 The Blind Side replaced Invictus, and in 2010, Winter’s Bone replaced The Town.
What I see when I look at this list is that actors made the difference in most cases, thought not all. Clearly movies like Selma or District 9 got in for a different reason. Passion likely drove them into the race, but for the most part, all of these had either acting contenders or acting winners.
That means if I’m looking for the movie that might land in BP, I might go for tick, tick…BOOM! because of Andrew Garfield, or The Lost Daughter with Olivia Colman. Then they have to bump a movie, and it doesn’t make total sense that movie would be Being the Ricardos. But it could be. It seems like the weakest link. It’s just that it does show some support here or there. My argument for Nightmare Alley would simply be Guillermo del Toro’s popularity in the industry overall and the film’s large A-list ensemble cast.
Here are my predictions for this week.
Predictions
Best Picture
Right now, I still feel like it could be a split year with Belfast taking Best Picture and Jane Campion taking Best Director. It could also be Belfast for both, or Power of the Dog for both. I do not feel, at the moment, any other movie has a shot to win (but you never know).
I do think Dune is going to be a monster when it comes to wins. It might be like Mad Max: Fury Road, winning a bunch of the crafts awards.
1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. West Side Story
4. King Richard
5. Dune
6. Licorice Pizza
7. CODA
8. Don’t Look Up
9. Being the Ricardos
10. Nightmare Alley
But I think that 10th slot could also go to tick tick Boom or The Lost Daughter. I am torn.
Best Director
I do not think that they will go 5/5 with DGA, but I do not know which director to drop if so. I’ll stick with the DGA five for now.
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Alts: Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up; Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley; Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Best Actress
This is still completely wide open. But the showing of Being the Ricardos at PGA does seem to indicate that the film is beloved enough to drive Kidman to the frontrunner status, coupled with her Globes win. Someone has to win the SAG. Right now I see it between Kidman and Jessica Chastain. Kidman would be winning her second Oscar and would be winning on the strength of Being the Ricardos overall. Chastian is the one who is most overdue of all of them and transforms herself the most in terms of makeup and performance. If The Lost Daughter manages to land in Best Picture, then that could indicate a second win for Colman. But right now I feel like Kidman is probably our frontrunner.
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Alts: Kristen Stewart, Spencer; Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Alts: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up; Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Alts: Rita Moreno, West Side Story; Marlee Matlin, CODA; Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos; Ann Dowd, Mass; Haley Bennett, Cyrano; Martha Plimpton, Mass
Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Alts: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar; Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up; Mike Faist, West Side Story; Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up; Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
The Lost Daughter
West Side Story
CODA
Dune
Alts: Nightmare Alley, The Last Duel
Original Screenplay
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
King Richard
Being the Ricardos
Alts: Parallel Mothers, C’mon C’mon
Cinematography
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
West Side Story
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dune
Alt: Nightmare Alley
Costumes
Cruella
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
The French Dispatch
Editing
Dune
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
West Side Story
The Power of the Dog
Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
The French Dispatch
Sound
Dune
Spider-Man: No Way Home
West Side Story
No Time to Die
tick, tick… Boom!
Visual Effects
Dune
Spider-Man: No Way Home
No Time to Die
The Eternals
Shang-Chi
Makeup and Hairstyling
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Original Score
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Don’t Look Up
Encanto
King Richard
Original Song
Be Alive from “King Richard”
No Time To Die from “No Time to Die”
Down To Joy from Belfast
Just Look Up from Don’t Look Up
Here I Am (Singing My Way Home) from Respect
Animated Feature
Encanto
Mitchells vs. the Machines
Luca
Flee
Spirit Untamed
International Feature
Japan, Drive My Car
Denmark, Flee
Iran, A Hero
Italy, The Hand of God
Norway, The Worst Person in the World
Alts: Finland, Compartment No. 6
Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul
Flee
The Rescue
Julia
Procession
Charts:
Best Sound: Close Race Between 1-3. 1) Dune; 2) tick, tick… Boom! 3) Spider Man: No Way Home; 4) West Side Story; 5) No Time to Die.
Best Editing: 1) Power of the Dog Exceptional Editing. 2-5 Are Runners Up. End of Story.
Adapted Screenplay: I love the following 3 (could go either way, but likely in this order): 1) The Power of the Dog; 2) Coda; 3) The Lost Daughter.
Original Screenplay: Only 2 Are Outstanding 1) King Richard; 2) Belfast.
Best Director: 1) Jane Campion (Power of the Dog) – she should win all the way!; 2) Kenneth Branagh (Belfast); 3) Steven Spielberg (West Side Story); 4) Denis Villeneuve, (Dune); 5) Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard). Guillermo Del Toro possible nod for Nightmare Alley.
Makeup/Hairstyling: 1) Cruella Dominant Winner!; 2) The Eyes of Tammy Faye or Dune Are Alternate Runners Up.
Costumes: 1) Cruella Again, Winner!; 2) House of Gucci/West Side Story Are Solid Second Place.
Cinematography: 1) The Power of the Dog May Edge Out The Win, But Any of These Other 4 Dark Horses Could Steal. It Will Be a Close Race Between Belfast, Dune, West Side Story and The Tragedy of Macbeth.
Production Design: Dune, Dune, West Side Story, The French Dispatch Are Elite. Licorice Pizza and Nightmare Alley Are Fair.
Visual Effects: 3 -Way Tie 1-3. 1) Dune; 2) Shang-Chi; 3) Spider Man: No Way Home; 4) Eternals; 5) No Time to Die.
Best Animated Feature: 1) Encanto; 2) Raya and the Last Dragon; 3) Sing 2; 4) Belle; 5) Mitchells vs. the Machines or Luca. Unlike previous years, there isn’t a dominating animated film this year.
Best International Film: 1) Japan, Drive My Car; 2) Denmark, Flee; 3) Iran, A Hero; 4) Italy, The Hand of God; 5) Finland, Compartment No. 6. I despised The Worst Person In the World.
Best Documentary: 1) Summer of Soul; 2) Flee; 3) The Rescue; 4) Procession; 5) Julia.
Original Score: 1) Power of the Dog Should Win….Bottom Line! 2) King Richard is a Solid Second Place.
Original Song: 1) Here I Am (Singing My Way Home) from Respect Winner !; 2) & 3) Be Alive/No Time To Die Are Decent Songs.
Best Actress (subject to revision): 1) Tie Jennifer Hudson (RESPECT) and Kristen Stewart (SPENCER) are Equally pristine perfection in their performances. Note: Stewart is not nominated for SAG). Jennifer Hudson AS ARETHA FRANKLIN THE QUEEN OF SOUL DESERVES GREAT RESPECT IN EARNING AN OSACR NOD EXCEPTIONAL EXTRAORDINARY EMBODIMENT. 2) Jessica Chastain Sparkles and Shines as Evangelist Wife Tammy Faye Baker (The Eyes of Tammy Faye); 3) Olivia Colman Spellbinding Sociopath Mother of Two Daughters (The Lost Daughter) 4) Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) Solid Sublime Work ; 5) Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) Decent Job; 6)Penelope Cruz Role (Parallel Mothers); Honorable Mentions: 1) Haley Bennett (Cyrano); 2) Tessa Thompson (Passing) and 7) Possible Dark Horse Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) Average Subpar Work, not her best or Award Winning Performance. Like Tom Hanks in Mr. Rogers, she emulated 2 of her previous characters in other films and seemingly resemble Lucille Ball for about an hour. She should not earn an Oscar nod compared to the electrifying performances of the amazing aforementioned individuals listed ahead of her. Jennifer Hudson is Outstanding, Stunning, Superb As The Queen of Soul. SHE DESERVES EQUAL RESPECT AND RISES ABOVE Other Pretentious Performances (Such as Nicole Kidman) BEING NOMINATED. IT WOULD Be Nice to See Her Win….Well Performed and Deserved!
Like Her Stellar Acting, Her Original Song “Here I am (Singing My Way Home) ” should also be considered….Respect.
Best Picture Oscar Potential: 1) Power Of The Dog; 2) King Richard; 3) The Harder They Fall (Yes, I know they will not be up for Oscar consideration, but it was one of the Year’s Best Cinematic Masterpieces); 4) Cyrano;5) Drive My Car; 6) Belfast – The aforementioned 6 are Exceptional Movies. 7)The Lost Daughter; 8) In The Heights; 9) Coda; 10) Flee; 11) A Hero; 12)Tender Bar; The aforementioned 6 are Great Movies.13) West Side Story; 14) Passing; 15) Encanto (I Love Original Song We Don’t Talk About Bruno/Lin – Manuel Miranda Creative Musical Genius) – These 3 Are Very Good Films. 13) Dune; 14) Sing 2; 14) Respect; 15) Spencer; 16) Raya And The Last Dragon-Decent.
My Short list for Best Supporting Actress (subject to revision): 1) Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard); 2) Ann Dowd (Mass) -They will probably remove Ann Dowd because of subject; 3) Ruth Negga (Passing); 4) Ariana DeBose (West Side Story); 5) Kirsten Dunst and/or Caitriona Balfe (Power of the Dog/Belfast). Possible Dark Horses Emma Thompson (Cruella) – she will not make the final cut (she is deserving another Oscar nod, but her character is a Psychopathic Mother in Disney Live-Action) and Martha Plimpton (Mass) – she is eclipsed by fellow noms and her co-star Ann Dowd. Honorable Mention: Marlee Matlin (CODA) Former Best Actress Oscar Winner (Children of a Lesser God) and Rita Moreno Best Supporting Actress Oscar Winner (West Side Story).
Short list for Best Supporting Actor Open Race: 1) Ciaran Hinds/Troy Kotsur (Belfast CODA) Heartwarming Superb Performances By Both Supporting Actors. Specifically, Hinds and Kotsur Masterfully Delivers; 2) Jared Leto (House of Gucci) Dense Son of Clothing Empire – Comical Delight; 3) Kody Smit-McPhee (Power of the Dog) Sociopath Son Who Cunningly Connects With Uncle Phil. He Lovingly Orchestrates His Demise; 4) Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar); 5) Tie Ben Mendelsohn (Cyrano); Masaki Okada (Drive My Car). Honorable Mentions: 6) Mike Faist (West Side Story); 7) Kelvin Harrison, Jr. (Cyrano); 8) David Alvarez (West Side Story).
Short list for Best Actor (subject to revision): (Tie) 1) Benedict Cumberbatch (Power of the Dog Molested/Raped Rancher Tortured Soul Enraged about His Brother’s Happiness and Everyone Else Chooses to Torment a New Bride/Previous Widow at the Ranch With Devious Consequences) – Dominant Electrifying Performances!); 1) Will Smith (King Richard) – Visionary/Dreamer Father Pushes and Hinders the GOAT of Women’s Tennis and Her Sister, Serena and Venus Williams; 2) Denzel Washington (Tragedy of MacBeth) – Unstable, Unpredictable, King Conspirator Who Is Driven Towards Insanity By Murdering Many Innocents Well Done!); 3) Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) Insecure Soldier who is Madly in Love With long-time beautiful friend Roxanne. Yet, he chooses to obscure himself behind friendship and shadows. Instead, he woos her with profound poetry, impersonating another Suitor. 4) Hidetoshi Nishijima (Drive My Car) Deeply Emotionally Wounded Widower/Thespian Finds Connection Through His Equally Troubled Female Chauffeur Youth Nicely Done, He will not make AMPAS final cut honorable mention for Best Actor; 5-7) Others to consider; 5) Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick, Boom!….), Biopic of Overexerted Composer/Creator of Rent Who Dreams of Broadway and Dies Trying to Make It To Broadway-Decent Acting; 6) Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos); 7) Mahershala Ali (Swan Song); Honorable Mention: 8) Hidetoshi Nishijima (Drive My Car) Deeply Emotionally Wounded Widower/Thespian Finds Connection Through His Equally Troubled Female Chauffeur Youth Nicely Done, He will not make AMPAS final cut honorable mention for Best Actor; 9) Anthony Ramos (In The Heights).
Can someone explain the Mike Faist thing to me, I genuinely don’t get it and want to know what people are seeing in that performance. I like the movie but he would probably be like 8th on my list of people I would nominate from it. To me that character should be charismatic and a little bit menacing even though they are just a kid out of their depth. All I got from him was a skinny, twerpy, unlikeable kid who I would laugh at as the head of a street gang. He kinda felt like he wandered on set from a cheesey Australian soap opera to me at times and never felt like a tough street kid at all. Maybe that is the point and they really wanted to highlight that these kids aren’t actually tough but even still it seems really odd to me that this would be talked up as best of the year. Alvarez, sure he might even make my 5 (maybe) but Faist I really don’t get.
Same here. Don’t get it at all.
Are there any contenders coming out of Sundance? It looks like Bolivia has a real contender for International. Anyone else?
I could see Emma Thompson in ‘Good Luck To You, Leo Grande’ happening.
Perhaps Bill Nighy for Living. Something for Cha Cha Real Smooth.
I posted a rundown of the 9 movies I watched at Sundance this year but it was flagged as spam.
Got the Apple+ free trial which means …
Tragedy of Macbeth – absolutely stunning. I’m not usually all for minimalism, and I have a strong bias against stage-to-screen adaptations (I can almost always tell, and they’re rarely translated well), but Coen leaned into that HARD and … it pays off. Some of the scariest cinematography I’ve seen in a while, and the whole postmodern scenery and architecture – really, really beautiful horror. Washington and McDormand were fantastic, goes without saying (but McDormand clearly could not have competed in Lead, right?); Hunter also great, but screen time too small (doesn’t diminish her performance).
CODA – Now THIS is how you do sentimental … I can really understand the praise. I was not expecting that. I’ve been trying to read some perspectives from deaf and CODA viewers – I really don’t want to fall into the trap of ignorant hearing person loving the movie for all the wrong reasons – and, selfishly, am happy to see a generally positive reception, but can understand some of the other criticisms I’ve read. I understand for example why some deaf viewers find the central conceit of the movie (deaf people can’t appreciate music, etc.) … well, just a bit tone-deaf (pun intended; though I think it still works, because very many HEARING parents don’t take music seriously at all, either … ). Many have also pointed out the lack of interpreters on-screen – but to that I’d say, this actually spoke very deeply to me, since I grew up in an almost exclusively Hispanic community, 99 percent of my friends were either immigrants themselves or first-gen immigrants, and a part of daily life for most kids around me (I was extremely privileged to have English-speaking parents) was interpreting for their families, including in situations where there should obviously have been professional interpreters. Unfortunately, that’s life, and this actually felt very realistic to me (I say, as someone not in the deaf community … I could be utterly wrong). This all being said … beautiful performances all around, and no movie has any business making me tear up that much.
Also, Daniel Durant, if you’re out there … I might be in love with you
Heya Alexsh. How you ? Genuinely hope u well and safe in this troublesome times…always admired respected pple like you of few regret are round here who respectfully disagree with me more often than not as I said it HOW pple approach disagreeing … I think fantastic way you go about it.u disagree with me a lot but that fine..be assured that… for that marks dividing line between two forms of debate that oppose my ( I strongly believe common sense views where and how awards season public respectability is deteriorating.
Namely ratherthan listening with rational opposing voices against common sense what films be nominated or no in end each year…they are listening too much to OTHER group of rogue radicals of Twitter online and their far more severe (methodically speaking) of buying intimidation and targeting online abusing pple specifically who disagree with them.
That something most is don’t believe in I mean whrn u say thank goodness rational minded pple I’ve uslf mate..
I call u mate as I do some others disagree 2ith me more often than not for those us take rational but strong view what we believe in share with each other respecting one another beliefs views that how should be..
But in world social media is very much sadly dog eat dog world far too much ey?
Do you all think academy understands the perils of making minority activist ideology and themes that it suffocating the more ambitious visionary films year upon year?
I not talking Spiderman here people…I talking films of superior quality of likes of ” Last night in Soho, last duel, eyes of Tammy faye, Not time to Die, Spencer…how is it helpful for awards season increasingly publicly toxic perception that film awards season so blatantly disregards more visionary inspired projects than Half contenders?
Wouldn’t including least 2 these contenders in mix make viewers of future awards season key events like globes/ bafta/ Oscar, see public largely long abandoned Oscar through it ratings to least consuder by connecting more embracing these publicly and critically well regarded high quality inspired films this year wouldn’t that be key way improve both Oscars ratings AND cultural external outside of film industry itself reputation?
Any idea anyone what convincing ( if any) rationale there going on in voters minds and nomination/ contenders preference system to keep doing everything they can to snub above amazing film titles? Should be open awards season…not predictable flat and very likely rating collapse for this awards season outcome- again ey?
What u all think?
Hi Aaron, thanks, hope you’re doing well too. I agree that interactions on social media are, generally, horrific. Even the best of intentions – ones which I agree wholeheartedly with – are unfortunately often overridden by the need to humiliate, to appear fully-formed and perfect in one’s beliefs and actions, as if you’ve never had to challenge or change your own beliefs ever in your life … yeah, I now try to stay off of twitter as much as possible.
That all being said, I don’t see that strong of a relationship between Twitter Toxicity and the Oscars. I mean, really, twitter is ultimately insular. If it weren’t, Green Book probably would never have won BP.
That being said, well, I think it’s funny that you see Last Duel, Last Night in Soho, and Spencer as “visionary inspired projects” – I don’t disagree with you that these are inspired projects, but I think you should consider that while you see Power of the Dog as representative of “minority activist ideology,” ironically, many people might actually describe your own favorites, like Last Duel and Spencer, as “activist ideology” (which I think is completely silly)
That being said, I really don’t understand your use of terms like “minority activist ideology.” (I think that you should stop using the word “minority” completely; I think you mean something like “fringe,” but when you say minority, it sounds like you’re talking about marginalized identities, like racial minorities). What exactly makes Power of the Dog “activist ideology”? Perhaps YOU read into that, but Aaron, it really doesn’t make any sense. There’s nothing about that movie which is “leftist” or “woke” or “activist.” You might say it’s elitist, or inaccessible, or pretentious, and I would personally disagree, but I would understand those criticisms more than “minority activist ideology” – this is why so many people disagree with you here, Aaron. (And keep in mind, that it seems hypocritical for you to accuse “activist agendas” of promoting Power of the Dog and other movies, when you yourself love Last Duel, which many reactionaries have described as a “woke me-too-movie” – a characterization I think both you and I could agree is reductive and misogynistic).
I happen to agree with you that voters tend to snub amazing film titles … but I think you and I would disagree about which those are. There is a very good chance that the nominees this year (as in many years) are actually going to heavily represent extremely popular, highly accessible (and still good, some even amazing!) movies like Belfast, Dune, CODA, West Side Story, Being the Ricardos, and King Richard. You can’t have those SIX movies nominated for Best Picture and say that the Oscars don’t care about accessibility.
A very thoughtful reply from you to quite frankly an incendiary, irrational and indefensible post. The funniest thing is, I don’t think he has even seen The Power of the Dog.
Few respect you because you are disrespectful to others using offensive stereotypes. You treat people the way that you are complaining of others.
(Daniel) he was great! I too have just accessed apple for a month – also threw in Swan Song, which I really liked, mainly due to Mahershala Ali’s superlative work. CODA was a bit of a disappointment for me. Nice, illuminating, but not as powerful as i expected. Macbeth was good looking and lots of thespies at work, but didn’t do it for me. I prefer my Coen’s in pairs! I miss the quirky and irreverent road less travelled of Coen Brothers movies.
Coen is best paired with a nice Coen
oh that one went over my head, Werner – can you elaborate (excuse my dimmness)
I like the Coens better together
yep. me too, whether they’re writers or writer/directors they are magical.
Same.
The CB should do ”Blood Meridian”
I was just not expecting much from CODA in the first place. Coming of age isn’t really always my thing, though every once in a while something like Lady Bird comes along and blows my mind. I’m not sure I think CODA is quite as good a movie as Lady Bird (in terms of writing and directing), but that’s ok, the two don’t need to be compared. The performances in CODA still speak for themselves, and there were a hundred tiny moments that were truly moving. And it was also genuinely very funny. And – there were just a lot of things I could personally relate to, like having a family that doesn’t always “fit in,” and … well, a lot of things, which I really wasn’t expecting. And I really was teary-eyed basically the whole time, precisely because of those small details. In all, I do think it’s a triumph (and better than some of the other movies that are “ahead” of it in the race, like Being the Ricardos and Belfast).
Wait, *is* BTR ahead of it? I guess not, because of SAG … yeah, CODA definitely deserved a SAG ensemble nod.
great thoughts thank you alexsh 🙂 I might revisit it before my subscription expires. About to watch ‘Cherry’ with Tom Holland
thanks for reading!
it’s always lovely to hear people’s honest and soulful reactions to films on here. There is so much ‘sport’ and beating down of one movie to prop up advocacy for another, that sometimes it seems this is not about cinema or storytelling, but about point scoring and reductive banter, so always a delight to read comments such as yours 🙂
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b446951a1bde9e2de4d9f227b8087d84a4fddc8aa646740bc3bbc2d8410a41be.gif
The Tragedy of Macbeth is ambitious and a cinematic visual feast. The one thing I thought stopped it from becoming great, and I know I’m in the minority here, is this nagging feeling that both Denzel and Frances were totally miscast. It could be because of their age or their world-weariness, but they never convinced me that they were capable of the ambitious, impulsive naïveté and self-serving power hunger and maniacal razor focus and calculativeness it takes to commit to what they did. Fassbender and Cotillard were much better fit in temperament and conviction although their film was grossly inferior to Coen’s – their toxic ambition was more palpable and because of that, their anguish and decline more tragic.
I haven’t watched the Fassbender/Cotillard version, though I hope to watch it some day. I do get that about Denzel and Frances; it’s not something I personally felt (in some ways I thought their age lent a deep poignancy, precisely because they aren’t naive), but I can see that take
Daniel – absolutely agree with you, Cotillard and Fassbender were thrilling to watch unlike Denzel and Frances.
McDormand in particular was SO miscast!…
I really liked CODA as well but I wish the scenes with Eugenio Derbez had been re-shot or re-cast. He was so over the top it took me out of the movie.
Tried to watch Tragedy of MacBeth (one of my favorite Shakespeare plays) after a long day of work. Made it an hour before dozing off. Can’t wait to watch from the beginning and finish it! I loved what I saw.
The parents were also over the top.
I don’t recall thinking that but I’ve been wanting to watch it again. I do remember thinking Kotsur was fantastic almost immediately.
So actually I’ve seen this comment a few times, and I wonder whether this may be a result of “mistranslating” or misunderstanding sign communication. Deaf and other people who use ASL tend to use facial expressions way more as part of communicating than hearing people – so sign interpreters often make a lot of expressions that may seem “over the top” or exaggerated or unnatural to others. I saw it quite often when teaching a deaf student, who had an interpreter in our classroom.
I’ve thought of that, but I’ve seen other movies with ASL and they’re not *this* expressive. It’s almost Kabuki.
Furthermore, it’s them being clownish with their sexuality that seems cringey. Movie tried too hard for them to be funny. It’s almost like: See! Deaf people are just like everyone and can be really goofy and funny!
This is also quite jarring (and offensive) because the daughter, unlike her deaf family members, are quite poised and lovely. Why is she different? Because she can hear and talk?
I have to say though that the actor who plays the brother strikes a pretty good balance, and his performance and character was touching.
I also wonder whether other movies with ASL try to “tone down” normal ASL expressions for “cinematic” purposes, especially since most ASL in movies is used by hearing actors/non-native signers, which might contribute to the discrepancy in watching this movie, where the three deaf characters are all played by actual deaf actors. Would love to hear more deaf people’s opinions and responses to that. And, of course, it could just be these particular characters’ quirks – I like quirky.
We can just simply look back Matlin’s performance in Children of a Lesser God. She was a passionate character but I didn’t feel like was overacting.
I think CODA’s issue is it being a comedy performed by ASL actors catering to a hearing audience. I think amongst deaf people they wouldn’t have to overtly express themselves to deliver humor to each other. They would just get the subtle expressions.
I don’t mean to crap on them. They are all excellent actors. It’s the direction and approach from the director that turned me off. And that also transferred to Derbez as well.
Right – or, we can read it as them actually NOT catering to a hearing audience, and using visual communication that’s more natural to them (and to their quirky characters) that may seem “off” to hearing audiences. I’m not saying you’re wrong – I genuinely don’t know myself, which is why I’m so interested in hearing other opinions. Children of a Lesser God was almost 40 years ago; what if THAT was the performance “catering to a hearing audience”? (Really, I’m not trying to play devil’s advocate, just thinking about these things myself). Selfishly, it would honestly be a bit sad to learn that Troy Kotsur was trying to cater to a hearing audience, rather than having fun with his character in a way that also made sense to him as a deaf person, but that may have very well been the case, as you suggest. Either way, I think he did brilliantly.
But I do agree, there seemed to be something about the direction (and, again, the writing) that wasn’t as elevated as it could be. But for me that’s approaching the level of splitting hairs – still a much more successful effort than most.
Fair enough, I can understand that angle, though I personally thought it was also just part of their characters … I found it very funny and charming (especially coming from someone with parents whose prudishness often borders on the disturbing). They seemed pretty believable to me and remind me of several couples I know close to their age. I do think (again this comes back around to writing, not performances for me) that Ruby’s character could have been written a little differently – I’m not sure someone who listens to The Shaggs (now THAT was a surprising reference) would be quite so … humorless around parents like these.
I’m not against the idea of them being sexual or humorous. It’s just that the movie pushed too far as if we wouldn’t get it or something. Typical over spoon feeding.
Honestly this was a problem for me as well. Not Derbez specifically – I think he actually did a really great and convincing job with what he was handed – my problem is what he was handed. This was an example of where the writing went wrong in the movie for me. I don’t think his character would have been such a hard ass on Ruby for things like, having to miss practice for an important interview for her financially struggling family? Yeah, very unbelievable to me, and felt like a cheap, very unoriginal, cliched conflict that simply didn’t need to exist and detracted from the movie. I feel similarly about the bullying scenes – it felt like a pretty outdated and cliched depiction of bullying (but I also haven’t been in high school in a while, so maybe it rang very true for others).
I think you’re right about the Derbez scenes. I watched it when it first came out streaming and what you said just rang a bell. I couldn’t remember exactly what bothered me about his scenes, just that they were off. I did believe his behavior to be unrealistic. I think his performance, still, was a bit over the top compared to what the rest of the cast was doing.
“I think he actually did a really great and convincing job with what he was handed”
This.
Whoa Best Actor is mediocre asf. It’s gotta be Denzel’s year, correct?
Nah. Will Smith will get his career Oscar and rightly so. My personal fave is Jude Hill from ‘Belfast’ but I’ll be glad to see the Fresh Prince win anyway.
https://media4.giphy.com/media/QNFhH8RNdL5S5riqFu/giphy-downsized-medium.gif
luv me some Stevie! Fondest regards warm wishes! 🙂
a serious man was not nominated for PGA
Correct. Replaced Star Trek. 2 changes in the 09 lineup
I keep wondering will Licorice Pizza overperform or underperform. I’m not sure
By the way me and my friend went to a surprisingly full screening of Magnolia at the New Beverly. Haven’t seen it on the big screen since it opened and a few things popped out.
Still love the film. Love its big earnest swings it takes.
Watching it again reminded me of how extraordinary Cruise is in the film. Amazing he didn’t win the Oscar.
For a three hour film it flies by
It looks extraordinary. The colors are so rich and beautiful
The jokes really landed with the audience. People were howling at the “Ill drop kick the dogs line”
It’s a masterpiece but I wish it had at least half an hour of editing. I found the Reilly sequences far too long and not up to the quality of the other subplots.
Love how the stories interweave and the acting is uniformly brilliant especially Moore, Hoffman & Robards.
Should have won at least Screenplay that year.
When Alan Ball beat him for the Oscar, Anderson turned to the camera and made a childish mock-surprised face.
Still my favourite from PTA, and that’s saying a lot. The man seems to deliver masterpiece after masterpiece. Still haven’t seen Licorice Pizza, but I’m very excited for it.
The frogs falling out of the sky is truly inspired. American directors just didn’t do that sort of thing.
Cruise’s scene opposite Robards (his estranged, dying father) is some of the best acting he’s ever done.
that’s the only sequence i do recall from Magnolia, I thought it was too long, but a great cast and PTA is clearly one of the best. Nothing for me comes close to Boogie Nights – maybe it was because it was his first feature (i think) and just so brilliant – daring and energetic and outrageous. I also loved The Phantom Thread, haunted by it for weeks after – the score, the twisted plot – Leslie Manville and of course DLD – always eminently watchable.
Aside from the length of the frog sequence, you and I agree on everything. I only caught Boogie Nights recently and was blown away. What incredible talent. Such assured blocking, camera moves and direction of actors. (It was his 2nd feature, btw; 1st was Hard Eight, 1996.) I’d passed on some things since TWBB, then I caught The Phantom Thread and was deeply impressed. Rich, elegant, assured directing on every level, and what (Oscar-winning) costumes! He can inspire collaborators. He’s immensely talented.
I actually don’t recall the frog sequence – but the movie overall was too long i thought. But yes Boogie Nights – that opening tracking shot was sublime! I’ve seen it a few times over the 25 years and it holds up well. Heartbreaking Philip Seymour Hoffman (i think i last saw the movie after his death).
That’s right, Hard Eight (i knew there was a reason I qualified my statement). 🙂
As I get older and revisit certain films I find Boogie Nights getting better in my eyes and Magnolia lessening slightly. Boogie Nights is one of the greatest sophomore films of all time. It’s balance of tone, the character arcs of an ensemble cast, a pitch perfect soundtrack, an impeccable attention to period detail, and that drug deal scene. Magnolia is very good, don’t get me wrong, but it feels more constrained to me even as it becomes more ambitious, more insular though it sprawls across the length and breadth of the San Fernando Valley. It seems to be Magnolia was the culmination of all that Anderson could achieve with that particular approach to filmmaking
Love Alfred Molina – one of the great unheralded actors. Pops up everywhere often smaller roles but steals every scene he is in.
*freebases cocaine*
You guys wanna play baseball?
off the charts wasn’t he…..
My entree to the luminous Julianne Moore too – making it a special experience.
Very fair and accurate assessment. You and I don’t disagree too seriously about Magnolia.
Way too over-the-top and “look at me and see what I can do!” While eminently watchable with numerous masterful scenes, his later works post-Punch Drunk Love were much more mature, restraint and powerful. As part of his early collection, this one is very self-indulgent.
I think France McDormand’s performance in “The Tragedy of MacBeth” will get rewarded with a nomination. Apart from the jaw-dropping cinematography by Bruno Delbonnel, she is the best reason to see this Shakespearen film. When I first heard that she was going to play Lady MacBeth i was extremely skeptical (“Madge” reciting Shakespeare?). I thought “no way”. But McDormand stunned me with her reading of the language, totally inhabited the character and made that vicious bitch real. She is one of the great Lady MacBeths and will be talked about for years to come. I hope AMPAS recognizes her work. She’s just as deserving as Washington.
I thought she was much better than Denzel.
I agree. It’s a shame that MacBeth will likely be left out of the BP lineup but if there’s one thing about that movie that I would nominate (other than the cinematography) it would be her.
Her role is too small, almost supporting. And after winning for a third time just last year? This role is anti-climatic after last year’s triumph. She would need a monumental role and performance to get nominated again so soon.
I did not like her at all. I think she was miscast and very obvious in her choices. I loved Hunter though. What an imaginative actress, what a presence!!!
I liked McDormand but she was in no way a stand out
Best Actress seems to be shifting too. It is disheartening to see Stewart and Zegler sitting in the alt’s here. I do think Kidman, Colman and Chastain are locks – again the other two spots open, but the oft nominated ingenue would suggest Zegler gets in, and I don’t know who else gets in.
I’m sooo team Chastain that I’m wearing gaudy eyeshadow, but at the end of the day, the Oscar is going to Colman. Olivia’s work actually reflects favorably against these ‘famous people’ roles, a raw and true performance that feels like a great actress at work. (Of course I think that about Chastain and her complicated and marvelous inspection of Bakker but the real-life persona idiocy and evil of that person will play as a deficit here.)
I haven’t seen the Tammy Faye biopic. but do you think the more prosaic Lost Daughter and recent Oscar winner would prevail; especially with Kidman playing Lucille Ball this year? (I got a good chuckle from your gaudy eye shadow comment) 🙂
Colman was superb and she is incapable of giving a bad performance. She is a terrifically talented actor. ‘Lost Daughter’ is one of my faves this season – I really loved it, but will it be a bit remote for some voters? I found it accesible, but not sure about some of the membership.
I haven’t seen the Tammy Faye biopic. but do you think the more prosaic Lost Daughter and recent Oscar winner would prevail; especially with Kidman playing Lucille Ball this year? (I got a good chuckle from your gaudy eye shadow comment) 🙂
I haven’t seen Penelope Cruz, but out of all the other contenders, Olivia Colman has my favorite actress performance so far. If she hadn’t won for The Favourite, I’d say the Oscar this year is hers. Subtle, complex and powerful without the need to sugarcoat the character’s inherent selfishness. And yet she made you root for her each step of the way while understanding her selfish motivations. It reminded me somewhat of a drastically different performance Meryl Streep gave in A Cry in the Dark, where she let the unlikable abrasiveness of her character hang out for all to see while simultaneously winning your empathy.
The drawback of course is that it is a very subtle performance lacking in Oscar-baity BIG scenes. Those overrated BIG scenes that tend to be cheap replacements for the care it takes to actually define multiple dimensions in a character. And the fact that she won one of the most surprising wins so recently doesn’t convince most voters that it’s time to reward her again so soon. Pity. I think the performance triumphed over Chastain, Kidman and Stewart by a mile, and I don’t even want to begin with Hudson. In my opinion, only Reinsve came close to the difficult towering work that Colman did.
Yeah, I feel like only Kidman and Colman are near-locks. Even Chastain feels iffy. I’ve mentioned everywhere my thoughts on Gaga (that I think she’s a shock miss). And then there’s Hudson/Stewart/Cruz/Zegler/Haim fluctuating in my lists for the last spot(s) constantly. It all comes down to those 1,000+ actors in the Academy who liked who they like.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiDxYV2RGP0
I’ve posted clips for 7 of the 9 men i consider the frontrunners for spots in the Academy Award line-up for Leading Actor in 2022. Andrew Garfield, Benedict Cumberbatch, Will Smith, Leonardo Di Caprio, Javier Bardem, Mahershala Ali and Denzel Washington have already been the subject of a youtube trailer/montage from me, and here I have Oscar winner Nicolas Cage and his most memorable and submerged performance in ‘Pig’. Perhaps his personality over the decades has overshadowed his talent, but there is no denying the charisma and acting chops that Cage possesses. From Alan Parker’s ‘Birdy’ which introduced me (and a lot of cinemagoers) to the young heartthrob; through to his award winning turn in ‘Leaving Las Vegas’ – Nicolas Cage’s career has traversed pretty much every genre and here, in this more arthouse fare, he plays a world weary truffle hunter in search of his beloved pig who has been abducted. A most unusual film, and not among my favourites of the season, but I can discern a great performance when I see one, and Cage is in top form here, and could be a surprise nominee come Oscar announcements in early February.
Musically, I have used the goddess punk poet Patti Smith and her rollicking ‘Looking For You’ (I Was) to recut the trailer for ‘Pig’ and highlight some images of the most famous Nicolas Cage.
Some great leading actors this year for AMPAS members to consider. At this stage the only 3 i think are locks are Will Smith, Benedict Cumberbatch and Andrew Garfield. The other two spots feel quite open and could go to Bardem, Di Caprio, Ali, Washington, Cage and the subject of my 9th and final contender, Peter Dinklage.
Loved the unexpected places “Pig” went. Nic Cage, who’s not always a favorite of mine, gives one of the best performances of the year. I loved this oddball movie. Never did I think it would be so moving.
I continue to think we’re set up for an unprecedented moment: Belfast winning Best Picture and nothing else. It’s not going to take a crazy set of circumstances at this point. The big things we need are: (1) Academy decides to honor PTA in Original Screenplay, (2) something other than Belfast wins Editing; (3) Belfast faring better in the upper half of the preferential ballot than POTD. … None of the above seems farfetched.
If Academy chooses Licorice Pizza over it in Screenplay, why couldn’t it also prefer that (or the Directing winner) in Picture?
I don’t think this would make sense psychologically. A voter marking their ballot voting for a film in Best Picture and not checking it off in other categories is extremely unlikely. This is not how we go about our favourites, you know… And there is a huge misconception about the preferential ballot. Belfast needs a huge portion of first votes to be competitive for win. Otherwise, it simply won’t be able to pile up enough votes to reach 50% plus one. And if a voter puts Belfast first, it really is more likely than not to be their original screenplay pick, which makes the whole scenario unlikely.
In addition, the Academy has shown time and again that they might vote for a filmmaker but only if they also are passionate about the film. Scorsese and Fincher are good examples. They were the expected filmmaker the Academy would throw a bone in directing when their films obviously were acclaimed but not as popular with the Academy as the actual winners, but in the end, Scorsese had to wait for the right film, and that film is still to come for Fincher.
I expect PTA to win original in the end, but I also expect Belfast to get The Irishman treatment.
I am in no way representative, I know, but in the recent past there have been two times when my own choice for Best Film was the only category I would have voted for it in. In 2010 I liked Moneyball the best, but I preferred other films in the other categories it was nominated for. Then in 2018 I liked Roma the best, but again, I would have voted for other films in all the other categories. In best Foreign Film, for example, Roma was my third choice, after Shoplifters and Cold War. Pawel Pawlikowski was also my choice for Best Director. Since neither of these films were nominated for Best Film, it led to this anomalous result. It comes down to the nominess, and lately the Academy’s choices have been pretty screwy. Aren’t you glad I’m not a typical Oscar voter?
I know, I am like this quite often, but most voters want their votes to matter. Do you think there were more than only a few going with Pawlikowski, who had no shot at winning in a million years?
Too bad
“I don’t think this would make sense psychologically. A voter marking their ballot voting for a film in Best Picture and not checking it off in other categories is extremely unlikely. This is not how we go about our favourites, you know…”
This is a good point – this probably is something that has changed since this last happened at the Oscars, in the 1930’s… Back then these thought patterns (when it comes to movie awards) weren’t as well-established, if at all, there were no decades of history to make the voters think this wasn’t something they should do… But a BP+screenplay and nothing else win clearly can still happen and makes way more sense. Because they can give it screenplay, the most logical one, then some of them might give it supporting actor, some supporting actress, some editing or whatever… Screenplay is the only one it makes sense for most of them to vote for it in, the rest could easily be all over the place and it could split votes between those categories and end up with none of them, since it’s not the favorite anywhere. Could very easily happen…
What you say makes sense. While I think the “Belfast wins only BP” scenario can definitely happen, Occam’s Razor says it’ll be a five-win night for POTD
And there is a huge misconception about the preferential ballot. Belfast needs a huge portion of first votes to be competitive for win.
Exactly. Anything is mathematically possible, but the reality is that the film *has* to be the top 2 #1 vote getter in order to come out on top in the end. And usually the top #1 vote getter ends up staying on top.
I think it will comfortably be in the top 2.
Well, it could happen. It would break a couple of stats but this happens an awful lot for us to act like this kind of thing is impossible. It doesn’t happen until it does.
Anything could happen. An Olivia Colman happens rarely but still might happen. A Marcia Gay Harden has happened once since the introduction of SAG (no Globe, SAG, BAFTA, CC nods). Once in 28 years. But it might happen again… but things like this happen rarely and usually almost nobody is predicting them.
Wouldn’t break any stats in particular, in fact. No strong ones. It’s happened before with the preferential ballot (Mutiny on the Bounty, which had 8 nominations and won only picture) and almost happened a few times, most recently with Spotlight. Even though that was almost locked for the screenplay win.
I think if the voters want to honor the film for Best Picture they very probably also want to honor Branagh´s achievement somewhere and give him screenplay alongside Best Picture. I´m not sure if Licorice Pizza can beat Belfast in the screenplay category.
As a producer, Branagh gets an Oscar if Belfast wins.
I just don’t think the Academy approaches awarding people in that way. They could have given Sam Mendes best director in order to divide the awards between Mendes and Bong but they didn’t. They could have given screenplay to someone other than Farrelly for Green Book in order to spread the wealth. They could have even divided picture, director and screenplay between Iñárritu, Linklater and Wes Anderson as some suggested in 2014. Yet they didn’t
“None of the above seems farfetched.”
I agree with this, for the most part… (Like I said, the most implausible of these is its losing screenplay despite winning picture and having already shown big strength there with the Globe win. But even that is far from impossible.)
Or perhaps that fact it’s not favoured in any other category other than OS, where PTA is a real threat, means something & it’s not as deeply beloved as many think it is.
And LOL at Chief Cherrypicker below who cites Belfast’s “big strength” in winning the globe, conveniently ignoring TPOTD won Picture, Director and Supporting Actor. That’s strength.
Stewart went from Best Actress frontrunner to an alternate for basically any other potential nominee. How weird
Until the industry gets a chance to speak/vote, there’s no real frontrunner. Just speculation and wishful thinking.
The first frontrunner for Best Actress this year is Nicole Kidman. And this began after SAG nomination announcement.
Excellent observation, Sasha! You noticed agreement between SAG and DGA on “Belfast.” Stay tuned, everybody!
Once again Tick, tick BOOM! will be among the 10 best pictures nominees at the Oscars.
Let’s hope so. It was just so damn good and Andrew Garfield deserves every Best Actor award in the world.
Two musicals in Best Picture! I think it could happen. If you don’t count A Star Is Born/Bohemian Rhapsody in 2018 (and I don’t), that hasn’t happened since 1968 (Funny Girl and Oliver).
But Funny Girl and Oliver! were in a field of five, which makes it even more interesting. Especially given that this was in 1968, a year so important that we have it in history books. And the Academy went with two dull musicals instead of truly important cinematic achievements.
Funny Girl I adore. Oliver! I don’t get.
What do you feel should have been nominated instead of those two?
I hope you and Sontag Glick don’t mind if I answer as well but 2001: A Space Odyssey and (perhaps for me at least even more importantly) The Young Girls of Rochefort (which was released in the US in 1968 even if its world premiere was in 1967) are my top two for that year and both consistently show up on my all-time top 10. I’d also throw in at least Godard’s Week End and Yellow Submarine to the best picture lineup.
The weird thing is that of the nominees I mentioned, two are also musicals. So they could have picked two musicals to nominate for best picture and chosen genuine masterpieces, although perhaps it’s too much to argue that either of my preferred musicals would have ever been even near an actual nomination. And at least Funny Girl is a solid movie with an incredible central performance.
I haven’t heard of any of those, except for 2001.
The Young Girls of Rochefort is Jacques Demy’s follow-up to The Umbrellas of Cherbourg. It’s considerably more of a riff on classical studio musicals than Cherbourg and perhaps many would say less exciting as a result but for me personally few movies are as joyous, as amazed with the beauty of the world and as elegant as Rochefort is. A true miracle of a film.
Week End is the kind of movie that either you accept its wavelength or it will be one of the most miserable viewing experiences of your life: it’s loud, aggressive and often almost trying to annoy its viewer. It is perhaps the most pretentious film I’ve seen from Jean-Luc Godard (which is quite an achievement) but also somehow one of his best ones (maybe even his second best after Pierrot le fou) because its anger and chaotic qualities bring a genuine menace to the film itself that is incredible to observe.
And Yellow Submarine is the animated Beatles movie. At least in my head it isn’t much more than just a collection of riffs but it’s so wonky in such a delightful way, so beautifully animated and simply so much fun
I’m not well versed in a lot of older films, outside of the Oscar bubble. I’m also not well versed in foreign language films, though I watch a couple every year or at least try to….my wife isn’t into old films or foreign language, so it makes it hard for movie nights some times lol
“And at least Funny Girl is a solid movie with an incredible central performance.”
Very pleased to see we agree on this – I also happen to think the movie is fantastic (and Streisand’s is easily one of the best performances of all time), but it was by no means a given you would have even liked either of them. 🙂 I know you love classic musicals, but this one feels a bit different from that, I don’t know… (While also being similar to them in many ways, of course.)
It’s certainly in that tradition of “why is this person directing a musical” movies that pop up I think around the early 60s where the musical as the genre starts to drift towards serious prestige material. However, I think that Wyler is a skillful enough director for the film to work pretty well as just a drama with music
“However, I think that Wyler is a skillful enough director for the film to work pretty well as just a drama with music”
Exactly! While also having some tremendous numbers and great production values in general.
If we’re being honest, Funny Girl is probably the only movie that deserved a Best Picture nomination that year. (I could hear a case for Lion in Winter I guess….) Romeo and Juliet, Oliver and Rachel Rachel were the other nominees.
Musicals benefited from improved technologies in movie exhibition in the 1950s-60s, making they seem more prestige than they actually were.
But 1968 was also the year of Rosemary’s Baby, 2001: A Space Odyssey, The Producers, The Odd Couple, Faces, The Young Girls of Rochefort, Buillitt and Once Upon A Time In The West.
I really think Meryl will get in for Supporting for Don’t Look Up. I mean, Meryl. She’s been nominated before when no one was expecting her and for a role that was kinda meh.
What role did Meryl get nominated for that no one was expecting?
Her last two. Let me rephrase that, “very few were expecting…”
The Post she had—GG, Critics Choice and won NBR…..she was heavily discussed— Everyone was talking about her being in a “prestige Spielberg” film with Tom Hanks. She was never NOT going to be nominated for that.
Florence Foster Jenkins she had—GG, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA. Again—she was never not going to be nominated. Queen Streep does not get all those nominations and miss an Oscar nomination. She was again, highly expected to get a nomination.
If anyone looked at the tea leaves at both of those seasons, and didn’t expect her to get in…..that’s just being blind.
She was so glorious in Florence Foster Jenkins. Have you come across the French version – ‘Marguerite’ starring Catherine Frot? I saw it first, then FFJ was released a few months later. Both films wildly entertaining and moving.
That one about the music – she played a teacher. It was a horrible movie, and Streep just phoned it in. I also think she was unexpectedly nominated in supporting for “Into the Woods”. Her earlier films were much more deserving of nominations (Silkwood, Out of Africa, A Cry in the Dark, Ironweed). Lately, I loved her work in Julie and Julia and The Devil Wears Prada.
There’s this part of me that’s hoping for a Faist or Hunter surprise nomination but is afraid that we’ll get her instead.
I don’t see this happening at all.
she’s actually giving an hilarious and satyrical performance in the film, which has plenty of comedy gold moments. I would like her, being nominated. And comedy shines more in Supporting than in lead (Bakalova, Tomei, Joan Cusack…)
As much as I love Meryl, I did not love her in Don’t Look Up. I know she was meant to be arch and unlikable, but the mugging and the over-acting; along with her work in The Prom has made me question her choices a little, but hey she is still arguably the greatest actress ever, and no-one will ever get close (not in my lifetime anyway).
She has certainly leaned into mugging over the past 20 years
yes fine line between character work and caricature.
Honestly I would argue her best work in the last 20 years was in the second season of Big Little Lies
she was deliciously insidious in it. Every syllable, every eye roll and head turn. Quite the masterclass. Maybe even Marvellous Meryl needs good direction not to overplay.
Actors are all tools, in a way, and a director must know how best to use them. Case in point: Nicolas Cage
yep, absolutely – he is raw talent, always has been.
Your last sentence is very telling. It seems to answer why she works with so many mediocre directors.
honestly, I say … BRING ON THE HAM
I agree with bring on the ham but if it could be more Florence Foster Jenkins and Big Little Lies and less Don’t look Up/ August Osage County/ The Prom that’d be great!
Don’t even start with August Osage. I always joke that her first line was scenery chewing (it is actually) and that even the wig was overacting (it was).
Generally when she’s nominated for meh roles she gets something else first right. To be precise at least 2 things first looking through history. Since 1995 when SAG began she got at least 2 nominations between SAG, Globes, BAFTA and BFCA for ever Oscar nominated role so she never really gets in as a surprise she gets in because people love her across multiple groups. Even One True Thing which got hardly anything got her in for SAG and Globe.
AMPAS loves Meryl Streep. I would not count her out for a supporting actress nod for “Don’t Look Up”. She is at her funniest, most satiric best; I love her performance in this film, and I think the Academy will award her again (even though she hasn’t been mentioned as a “front runner”). She got a surprise nomination for “Into the Woods” a few years back – and her performance in McCay’s film last year is so, so much better.
No way, and this comes from somebody who adores Meryl. This film is a shame for Meryl.
It’s getting tough. If Belfast doesn’t miss Editing at the Oscars, or underperform dramatically at BAFTA, it will be hard to argue that, at least based on nominations, it’s not the frontrunner. At that point, all eyes will be on the big guilds – will it manage to win SAG or PGA? Or will a strong challenger in Original Screenplay emerge?
SAG alone won’t do the trick. No film has ever won Best Picture with SAG only. Films have won with PGA only, DGA only, WGA only. But SAG alone – nope. So it needs PGA.
How about SAG+WGA?
The WGA ineligibility does matter. You might claim that it doesn’t, but I think your analysis on that is incorrect.
The exact same thing people said about Three Billboards.
And your theory relies on the assumption that Belfast will win WGA if it were eligible, which I disagree with. I do not even expect it to win SAG ensemble. It is the typically average film that is huge at the beginning of the season but then barely wins anything.
That was quite hard too – Three Billboards lost the Screenplay Oscar which was seen as necessary for its BP win. The problem with WGA ineligibility is that we don’t get a clue if the film is really about to win the Screenplay Oscar. This might happen to Belfast too – hence my initial question that another film could best it in Original Screenplay. But if it does end up winning the Screenplay Oscar, then with a SAG win it could be easy BP frontrunner.
A lot of ifs. Not that it is impossible, and stats are meant to be broken. I am only saying that of the nine films that won SAG only, not one went on to win Best Picture. Some, like Three Billboards and Inglorious Basterds, were seen as Original Screenplay contenders and favorited by many until Oscar night. Both were ineligible for the WGA.
Of course there are a lot of ifs – we don’t even have Oscar nominations yet. It’s still wide open.
I expect Belfast to miss both directing and editing, which might make things easier.
On Editing, yes. If Belfast misses that, The Power of the Dog becomes a comfortable frontrunner.
I don’t think the Directing nomination matters all that much in this day and age. I am also predicting Belfast to miss this though.
But it’s not like the WGA ineligibility had anything to do with them not winning screenplay (especially as many non-WGA eligible films in general have won the Oscar). Thus, there isn’t any real proof that a film that was WGA ineligible and won SAG is likely to not win the screenplay category. And if it does win the screenplay category at the Oscars, that should be as valuable as a WGA win, making it into pretty much a WGA+SAG situation
All I am saying, and I pointed this out to avoid this situation, is that it has not happened so far.
Calling Belfast average is absurd.
Calling Belfast average is an opinion. Learn to respect those. And yes, Belfast is a film that has nothing to say. It’s recycling the same old cliches without creating complex, truthful characters. It doesn’t rely on character, it relies on schmaltz. My opinion. Your might be different, I don’t care.
I thought the characters were quite realistic.
“And I was surprised that neither Spider-Man: Way Home or No Time to Die showed up at PGA.
But mostly, it was a reminder that the Oscar game is a well-oiled machine by now, even during COVID times, even without audiences”
By ‘ well oiled” u mean well versed in sidelined, undermining films that far ore deserving that half contenders thst undeservedly favoured…yet I point out in likes of Belfast way overrate POD, too few been able to see globally let alone my country…undermining. sidining as u say NO TIME TO DIE , Last Night in Soho, no Last Duel, no Eyes of Tammy Faye.. unlikely shouldD be to Being the Ricardo’s, Coda.. which sadly gonna get less guilds it deserves hence less nominations.
Well oiled in making ignorance and self denial and self delusions an art form…when should be tossed overboard..to cleanse the filth that awards season invited in in droves..your right it utterly predictable that spellsCODE RED DANGER for awards season deteriorating reputation . It WILL happen it already happening.
Well oiled Sasha and everyone as in toeing social media twitterati group think ..by favouring films pander to msgs of over amplifying a current affairs sociological issues over more visionary, original, or visionary ambitious adaptation type stories in cinema.
And far far far too well oiled a machine in showing their contempt for forms of ambition in filmmaking, originality, and Common FUKIN SENSE!!
SNUBBING Ridley Scott, and BOTH his films..snubbing Daniel Craig as most grounded believable Bond since the Connery days… snubbing all above…yea well down Awards season FUKWITS..
YOU HAVE PERFECTED THE ARTFORM OF OVER OILING U MACHINE ..to the pomt it gradually falling APART… that what happen whrn u pump too much oil in the machine.
I NEVER in 24 years! Followingawards season seen such minimal, lacking common sense decisions by awards season …maybe it time to replace the well oiled machine not only less oil..but knee nerve/ brain centre ey?
Belfast should win
Seen Belfast yesterday, but I would put it under West Side Story, Summer of Soul and The Power of the Dog in terms of “should win”… just saying.
Belfast not even worthy of being a top 10 film in my opinion.
well, that’s your opinion. I don’t think it is a masterpiece, but it really almost is.
Errrr… everything anyone says here is his or her own opinion. Of course it’s mine. I don’t know about you but I’m not narcissistic enough to assume what I say is objective fact.
Well if you say if Belfast is not worthy of a top ten film, the guilds say different.
me neither. But I tend to actually deconstruct before giving mine, and try to be as objective as possible. 😉
Power of The Dog is dreadful
sorry, I don’t get the hate for what it is almost a masterpiece… some people is simply not ready for slowburns and subtlety?
Listing Ann Dowd here, without also listing Ruth Negga is a joke, right? Because it looks really bad…
I think she just spins off her list week after week and she just overlooks things and not make adjustments.
I don’t bother taking issues. I mean, just another opinion in the sea of opinions. I don’t see how her list is any more or less valid than anyone else’s with all the wisdom and shortsightedness and hope and prejudice…
Maybe but she’s been really good at missing Negga every time but once. Ann Dowd is out of the race entirely.
She also doesn’t like Passing. Thinks the actresses aren’t believable in passing as white. The depth of the movie critical analysis.
Yup! But Oscar prediction is not about what we like, and someone with a platform like Sasha should not be leaving out actual contenders due to preference.
She’s not objective. No pundits are really. Early in the game, they’re all hopedicting.
Yeah, I assume Sasha just forgot Negga,
She thinks the Oscars are likely to snub Jennifer Hudson because they hate strong black women in film. Going by her own stupid logic, I can suffice that she continues to snub Ruth Negga because she hates light skinned black women in film. Sad.
The 15 selected films for the International category are so much stronger then these contenders.
Best Picture could look like this:
Drive My Car
Compartment No. 6
Great Freedom
A Hero
The Hand of God
The Worst Person in the World
Prayers for the Stolen
Plaza Catedral
Hive
Flee
This year I only really liked The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Coda, Mass and The Lost Daughter.
Wishing Lamb had made the last cut.
Great Freedom was such a hard watch, but the actors make up for the bleakness and the film’s slightly chaotic structure.
I loved Flee and Drive My Car and liked A Hero, but the one film that truly broke my heart and made me fall in love was Worst Person in the World.
It is interesting framing saying Belfast is coming in “extremely strong”. TPOTD landed the same guilds and in addition landed CAS & SDG that Belfast didn’t and it won GG & AACTA best picture. SAG ensemble was the only edge Belfast had but it missed both actors in supporting actor.
To the me the guilds are more likely neutral in terms of the Belfast v TPOTD race, if anything. I’d say both are coming in strong, with TPOTD having the edge in director.
Belsfast has SAG ensemble which gives it the edge these days.
Tell that to Nomadland and Shape of Water
Nomadland makes perfect sense. Shape of Water still surprises me that it missed SAG.
Green Book missed ensemble as well. Three of the last four best picture winners missed ensemble.
Yes it was a strange miss and Billboard’s nom and win there made me think it would win BP. It showed the SAG ensemble stat was not iron clad. Not sure if it has anything to do with AFTRA merging in 2012, but it has been broken 3 times in the last 4 years.
Green Book also missed.
Good point!
I tend to agree with you. For me, Belfast is the only movie I’ve watched this season and thought -BAM that can actually win Best Picture. TPOTD a close 2nd. WSS is a strong 3rd and can def happen.
I think WSS is out missing ASC and Eddie although I think being a remake of BP was already too much of a hurdle.
Belfast is inoffensive but too me feels too small to win. It is very short and traditional in many ways and seems a far cry from the more bold BP winners of late. I think the GG and AACTA losses tell us it is vulnerable.
WSS being a remake I thought the same. Though, after seeing it and how was adpated more from the stage play than the original film gives it hope. There are even parts of the new version I prefer to the original and that’s saying a lot.
i thought it was refreshing seeing a film go for 90 mins rather than 120 -180 mins. It said what it needed to say a nd got outta there. Respect. the Screenplay win at GG says it’s in big time. It’s also the film that nobody is going to hate on. ticks a lot of boxes.
A saw a stat about duration of BP winners. 90 mins is very much an outlier. I don’t think it is a film many will hate on but I do think that at least some will think it is a bit insubstantial for the main prize. I also think some are underestimating the respect for the filmmaking of TPOTD which will earn #2s and #3s in the ballot. Who knows how it will all wash out.
And we are forgetting a very important bit- the campaigns which are heating up now. They will make a difference in a close race.
ah yes, it all depends on the #1, #2 and #3’s. Belfast and TPOTD will be in many no matter the running time of the film. And then you have to think about TPOTD ending… Like so many films this season, the ending has been, well, not great.
What????? The ending is literally the best part
Yeah purely looking at where we are the 2 are pretty much neck and neck in picture and Campion is easily in front in director.
I think we still need to consider House of Gucci for Best Picture and Supporting Actor (Leto). The SAG noms say a lot with their voters.
I just saw Nightmare Alley and was underwhelmed. Great performances by Cooper, Blanchett and the rest though it wasn’t anything amazing. You can look at how power, greed, trust and love are all munipulated; such is life. It was missing something.
Nightmare Alley grows on you, it did me anyway.
I agree, I liked it at first but it has certainly sat in my mind since. In many ways it’s because of the crafts and the performances. I genuinely think it is close to best of the last decade level production design, it really is incredible and the other crafts are all fantastic too.
I agree, I liked it at first but it has certainly sat in my mind since. In many ways it’s because of the crafts and the performances. I genuinely think it is close to best of the last decade level production design, it really is incredible and the other crafts are all fantastic too.
I was underwhelmed too. It seemed a bit messy, disjointed and overlong. I love Blanchett but she felt a bit forced and one-note here. The production design is nomination-worthy.
I felt that too with Blanchett. “A bit forced and one note” – agree. And she got the SAG nom for this. I thought she was the only great thing in Don’t Look Up. Interesting how these votes go hey!
Pro Design was pretty good. We’ll see…
So many times Cate Blanchett is the best thing in a movie. Think ‘The Aviator’, ‘I’m Not there’, ‘Elizabeth’.
Omg that’s so true. The Aviator was hanging on her performance. Nignhtmare Alley was not.
Further, her performance in Elizabeth should have won the Best Actress Oscar. End point!!
Yes Gwyneth beating that towering performance in Elizabeth, whilst expected, is one of the AMPAS outcomes that annoys me most. And her blubbering annoyed me even more.
Watching those 2 performances side by side, I cannot see how can prefer Paltrow’s.
In your opinion. In my opinion, Montenegro ran circles around everybody else.
And what a living legend. Had she won she’d be one of the clearest winners in that category in a very long time imo
IN 1998 all the nominees were awarded worthy. Paltrow was in a film with BP heat. Montenegro was sublime.
Yes Gwyneth beating that towering performance in Elizabeth, whilst expected, is one of the AMPAS outcomes that annoys me most. And her blubbering annoyed me even more.
Watching those 2 performances side by side, I cannot see how anyone can prefer Paltrow’s.
The heir apprarent to Marvellous Meryl!
Yes. She should at least equal Katherine Hepburn in terms of number of Oscar nominations.
That’s the most obvious thing in Hollywood.
If, for whatever reason, the incomparable Cate Blanchett won’t score her long overdue 8th nomination for her unforgettable, haunting performance as Dr Lilith Ritter in Nightmare Alley The Oscars should be canceled or something. Seriously acting of this caliber and filmmaking of this caliber (I was so glad to read these days Martin Scorsese’s raves about Guillermo Del Toro’s towering latest cinematic achievement) should always be recognized at least through a nomination.
I’m so fine with what points out to a clear Ariana Debose win in The Best Supporting Actress category this year since Ariana was nothing but mesmerizing as Anita but Cate Blanchett’s awe-inspiring brilliance in Del Toro’s latest and in a year that saw her steal the hell out of another unbelievable ensemble as well in Don’t Look Up is just unmatched and at the very least should land her a nomination.
The “Life happened to me” delivery and her entire last scene with Cooper should earn her her ridiculously overdue third win as well (who can forget the way she was robbed for Elizabeth, Notes On A Scandal and I’m Not There or her criminal snubs in everything from The Talented Mr Ripley, The Shipping News and Bandits to The Gift, Heaven and Little Fish) but that’s another story.
Yes, she was probably the most cringeworthy performance in DLU. As bad as it gets… La Streep and Blanchett falling this low is disappointing. But Blanchett was definitely so broad and all over the place that she could not even create much of a character. Streep at least had one.
Missing Ruth Negga and Jamie Dornan.
I’ll say it until the nominations come out, but I still think Sasha is underrating DRIVE MY CAR’s chances to break through in one or more of the Picture, Director, Screenplay categories.
And, if it doesn’t, shame on the Academy for rewarding mediocrities like RICARDOS and DON’T LOOK UP
She didn’t get the movie so therefore it won’t get in. She thinks she and AMPAS are joined at the hips.
We’ll see in a couple of weeks. Let’s just hope enough Academy Members pull it out of their screener pile.
I also think that Farhadi’s A HERO is more than a longshot to upset DRIVE MY CAR should they both be nominated in International Feature. Not only do they Farhadi with 2 Oscars already, but, it’s widely available on Amazon Prime, plus it ain’t 3 hours.
I think you mean International Feature, I can’t see Farhadi winning a 3rd, that would be thoroughly undeserved IMO.
Fixed. But, Farhadi will likely win a 3rd at some point. He is that good right now
A Hero is stunning!
Drive My Car has really tanked at the guild stage. I would be surprised if it gets anything beyond International film.
It does have a shot in the “international director” spot; only PTA is vulnerable I think from the DGA line-up and he usually does better at AMPAS than DGA.
Directors branch certainly has a shot in. And, don’t discount, the writers. They often reach beyond the ‘obvious’ Oscar bait, too.
Not a coincidence in my book that the real “Best Picture” comes in the Directing and Writing category
Drive My Car did exactly what it was expected to do at the guild stage, and is not on a completely dissimilar path from Amour, which also “tanked” with the guilds
Did DMC get in at any guild, or do you mean “as expected” to be “nothing, as expected”?
It got nothing
I finally saw Passing, now I’m wishing it would show up so much more.
It would be so deserving indeed. A gem of a film.
Wait, where is Ruth Negga?
Right? At the very least I think she should be ranked higher than Matlin, Ariana and Bennett. Like wtf…
Matlin was a total yawn
Justin Chang is a very smart and very articulate critic.
“Personally, I try to to steer clear of words like “elitist,” an insult that has a curious way of rebounding on those who use it. It’s odd being accused of elitism by those who think a list of awards picks should be populated exclusively by American and British celebrities. Given Hollywood’s annual orgy of self-love and its reflexive assumption of its own cultural superiority, isn’t it the opposite of elitism to recognize artistic excellence from countries like Japan, France, Colombia and Romania? Isn’t it, in fact, a downright egalitarian gesture? Shouldn’t an institution that claims to champion inclusion and representation acknowledge the greatness of cinema in any culture, any language?
Which brings us back to “Drive My Car,” whose most emotionally overpowering scenes are built, tellingly, around an experimental theater production of “Uncle Vayna” in which the performers are all acting in different languages. Under these highly conceptual circumstances, real communication would seem impossible; miraculously, the opposite turns out to be true. As the actors converse in a mix of Japanese, Mandarin, Korean and Korean Sign Language, bonds form, epiphanies bloom and a small, profound idea rises to the surface: As human beings, we are united by more than a shared tongue, and the language of art is a universal one. The best plays understand this. The best movies too.”
Funny. I *just* downloaded the article as it just showed up in my feed.
I got it by chance. I know the name, but I am not familiar with him. He’s a great writer, for sure.
I always find it amazing the physical logistics of how Justin Chang can write with his head rooted so firmly up his own culo. His self-immolation after Green Book won Best Picture is something that shall never be forgiven.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/151ad916c7c998edf863f57d5f8b34fe9ae39913f40386ad8f5062c9218198a9.gif
Taste is subjective and no one should be criticised for their taste in art. He isn’t taking pot shots at people for their taste. However, when you put someone or something on a pedestal, you have to accept that they are a fair target. They’re a fair game. When you’re an organisation like the Oscars and you claim to honour the best in cinema, what you choose matters a lot. People can criticise their choices, whether it’s the highly acclaimed films like Moonlight or unacclaimed films like Green Book. The debate doesn’t stop just because the Academy has spoken. No, it will only grow because of it. And the Academy’s low points in recent times in terms of Best Picture winners (Driving Miss Daisy, Crash and Green Book) have been related to race. It’s fair to say they have a blind spot. Crowning Driving Miss Daisy while ignoring Do the Right Thing in the same year was very revealing about where they stood on race issues. One was bristling truth and prescient art, while the other was a retread and nostalgia about a nonexistent past. Probably one of the lowest point in their history.
Are you joking? The Academy’s nadir in recent years was The Shape of Water, a film completely lacking in intelligence or logic, but because Del Toro is beloved, they gave it a pass. Argo was a close second to egregious crimes against humanity.
That’s not point. What you seem to be implying is that he isn’t allowed to criticise their choices. You are allowed, but he isn’t?
I didn’t love The Shape of Water because it reminded me of filmsvin the 80s that I love or really like (ET and Splash). But I think the direction is great and I love the Cinematography and Production Design. I just love the dreamy world Del Toro created. I just can’t stop looking at it and wanting to get lost in it.
Yup, those exact two for me as well…
Do The Right Thing wouldn’t have been nominated even if there would be 10 spots instead of 5…. Clearly “Crimes & Misdemeanors” was the closest thing to a nomination given the fact that it had nods in Directing, Writing and Acting, the same can be say about “Henry V” then it was “Glory”,” Indiana Jones And The Last Crusade”, “Enemies: A Love Story” and “Sex, Lies & Videotapes”
It’s not about what could or couldn’t been nominated, but rather what they nominated and what they deemed unworthy and ignored. It only got Screenplay nomination. And Kim Bassinger called them as she was was presenting an award that year.
Good luck with that! Most comments these days are complaints that [Insert name of voting body]’s taste is atrocious because they nominated so-and-so and/or snubbed so-and-so.
Yes, but asserting what’s best inevitably invites criticiisn and even ridicule. Furthermore when you are a major organisation and world famous like the Oscars, your choices will be scrutinised because some people think it matters what they pick. You can shrug and say it doesn’t matter, but it clearly does because their decisions have impact on the film industry and they in turn have impact on society.
Best director (winner) seems locked. But is that inertia enough to push POTD over the top in Best Picture ranked ballots? I’d learn toward yes. But it could come down to who does better in the #’2’s and #3’s between POTD and Belfast.
I’m still not convinced of a POTD BP win
Me either. But none of the alternatives is resoundingly convincing, either. “Belfast by default” could end up being the case, but it doesn’t exactly come with a wave of enthusiasm. I maintain there’s still a scenario in which Belfast wins ONLY Best Picture. Folks who are laser-focused on Belfast winning BP might additionally decide to spread it around and honor Campion & PTA in other big categories. In which case what else is Belfast winning?
Belfast doesn’t look like winning more than Original Screenplay, so BP looks very tough with only one award.
It’s the Spotlight of the year.
Or it’s the Trial of Chicago 7 of the year.
It’s not like Spotlight because that film felt very important , even if not urgent. I think few films have the goodwill it had.
Yes, the subject matter, the IRA/British conflict has been done to death and far better eg The Crying Game, In The Name of the Father.
love The Crying Game. Brilliant screenplay – one of the best of that decade. And Stephen Rea and Forest Whittaker were just sublime.
As much as Anna Paquin was a deserving winner – Miranda Richardson gave performances in 3 movies that year – Damage (nominated), The Crying Game (should have been) and Enchanted April. She is one of the greats.
Anna Paquin won in 1994. Miranda Richardson was contending in 1993, the year that Marisa Tomei won, although Judy Davis should have won them all.
I sit corrected. I must have been having a senior moment! You’re right. Judy Davis should have won although Richardson was devastating in ‘Damage’. But Miranda Richardson is so good, she is one of the best to never receive one….. Yet.
And the performance by Jaye Davidson!… (And the rest of the cast.) I love that movie too, big time. The screenplay is definitely one of the best.
Belfast will age so much better without the weight of a best picture win.
Yes, for sure. An Original Screenplay win will suffice, I think.
I’d give that one to Red Rocket myself.
I don’t know… If it fails to win, it will unfairly be forgotten, most probably. If it wins, it will be hated, but it will not be forgotten…
Too true.
“I maintain there’s still a scenario in which Belfast wins ONLY Best Picture.”
Agreed. (Although it is far more likely it also wins at least screenplay.) It’s happened before in a preferential year – Mutiny on the Bounty, which actually had more nominations, at 8, than Belfast is likely to get. And it’s been close to happening 2-3 other times.
Just one word why it won’t win: Netflix
I don’t think it deserves to win, but I don’t see how there’s a chance in hell it doesn’t win Best picture since it is favored to win director, adapted screenplay, cinematography, and at LEAST one acting award. Boggles my mind, but there you have it.
It’s not favourite to win Cinematography. Dune is the favourite.
It is not favoured in cinematography but yes, many are literally handing it at least 3-4 Oscars including the Best Picture accompaniments director and screenplay and saying with this widespread support it cannot win a preferential ballot when it can.
Favored ain’t the same as winning them, plus similar showings have failed to result in a BP win before, even if not often. (Then again, it’s not often a movie wins all of those – I’m mostly talking about directing, writing and acting – in any given year anyway.)
TPOTD will win everything it is nominated for except best actor because Cumberbatch is a cis white male and the academy must show itself to be inclusive and that’s the only slot the voters would feel able to exclude because heaven knows no white males allowed to win that particular award. Especially since ‘movie awards’ are not about rewarding the best acting, but the most minority boxes they check.
No it won’t lol
Finally she crossed out Spiderman
Oh. She will absolutely be back to blame “tastemaking liberals” for failing to nominate Spider-Man if the ratings perform poorly.
What do you mean “if”
District 9 was also nominated for Best Picture in 2009 (as your chart shows).
I can’t believe we are going to have another Oscar winner win BA Oscar. So boring. At least sb new is getting in that line-up: Zegler or Stewart.
And serious question because I haven’t seen House of Gucci yet. Is Gaga really that good? I find it strange that she’s going to receive a second Oscar nom for her second role ever in film.
In supporting BA, I have Dench and Negga over Ellis and Blanchett.
I so wish simply solid / Oscar bait turns by an otherwise wonderful actress like Ellis or the always sublime Judi Dench are not favored towards Cate Blanchett’s towering turn in Nightmare Alley or Ruth Negga’s brilliant turn in Passing.
Both Cate and Ruth should make the cut but I have such a soft spot for Cate’s phenomenal, scene stealing, complex and then some turn in NA I would be deeply disappointed if she doesn’t earn even a nomination. Like what the hell, if acting as PHENOMENAL is snubbed end all awards shows ASAP LOL. In all honesty Cate is incomparably great in Del Toro’s film. Ariana seems to have it in the bag for a terrific turn in West Side Story but Cate should at the very least score a nomination for her exceptional turn as Lilith Ritter in NA.
Doubt Ellis misses just because of the stereotypical awards-friendly nature of the role. Gaga is not that strong in such a competitive year. Transformative, okay. Fun, sure. Is the accent consistent? I don’t even know. The problem is the material is so campy that it’s not some serious dramatic performance. The character is ridiculous. I think she misses. Which means I stick to Stewart and Chastain. And have to pick one of Zegler, Cruz, and Hudson.
Thanks for answering. If Gaga misses, it’s going to be a crazy nomination morning. I wish Reinsve and Danielsen Lie (my win) were in conversation, too.
LOVE Reinsve and especially Danielsen Lie!
For me, Vincent Lindon, Anders Danielsen Lie and Kodi Smit-McPhee rule the Best Supporting Actor category. Instead, we have mediocre, trivial, unambitious works from the likes of Jamie Dornan, Jared Leto, Ciaran Hinds and, gasp, Ben Affleck, in the running.
1. Lindon
2. Danielsen-Lie
3. Smit-McPhee
4. Faist
5. Kotsur
6. Pacino
7. Simmons
I agree with the top three. Faist is the MVP in his film but not my favorite, and I really do not care much for the other three.
Ruth Negga for the win now for me.
I think we’re looking at a Dune crafts sweep, Jane Campion in director, Smith for actor, DeBose in supporting, Belfast in picture, and who knows I’m supporting actor and actress.
It is too early for some of those. Smith has a lot of enemies in Hollywood, thus I wouldn’t call him a safe bet. And the performance simply is not good. Cumberbatch will take BAFTA, plus he is in a best picture front-runner.
Belfast might suffer greatly once the nominations are announced. Past guild nomination champs Three Billboards, A Star Is Born, BlacKKKlansman, Once Upon A Time in Hollywood, The Irishman, The Trial of the Chicago 7 simply faded away after the nominations announcement. And some of them even had all crucial nods (The Irishman, BlacKKKLansman). Belfast needs to get directing and win the PGA to remain competitive.
Dune might win many techs but Editing is unclear right now. And Ari Wegner might very well take Cinematography. She is the win that will make the Academy look good. I doubt they will pass up this opportunity.
I think the person who might beat Smith is Garfield. Frankly I think Cumberbatch should have gone supporting where it could have easily won.
Cumberbatch has won some 95% of critics so far. He has over 20 wins, including the NYFCC. He is extremely likely to win BAFTA, and he is in a film that will be a huge contender. Actor and Picture are linked, and if voters look for an alternative, he is the alternative. Garfield is unlikely to win anything other than the Globe, while Cumberbatch has a path similar to McDormand last year.
But why can’t Garfield win BAFTA? Because unless there’s genuine proof of Cumberbatch being in front of Garfield at BAFTA, your argument structure becomes mostly (ignoring the critics’ groups argument, which isn’t that relevant) a circular argument of “Cumberbatch is the strong contender in best actor because he will win BAFTA and he will win BAFTA because he’s he’s the stronger contender in best actor”
A few reasons:
Cumberbatch has the stronger film. I am not talking about quality, which is a matter of opinion, but of the film’s award prospects. This always matters.
And while both are Brits, even though Garfield was born in the US, the Best Picture heat will definitely make Cumberbatch the one more likely to beat Smith at the Oscars, hence the likelier to push.
And not that it matters much, but these are film awards, and Cumberbatch is the much bigger star, both in the UK and abroad.
On the other hand, Redmayne beat Keaton with the clearly weaker film. McConaughey beat Ejiofor…
I don’t think Ejiofor is a valid counterexample here since he won BAFTA
No, no, I meant in terms of having the stronger film and losing. BAFTA hasn’t been decided yet this year. Any could still win/miss altogether, especially with juries being involved. I included Ejiofor precisely because he won BAFTA, in fact, a la McDormand. (Also in absentia.) I didn’t want to give any examples that didn’t win any of the big TV precursors.
I don’t think Ejiofor is a valid counterexample here since he won BAFTA
Belfast could also miss editing, which would be even more of a problem than directing. I don’t think it will, but I think it’s safer against a snub in directing…
Why oh why isn’t Drive My Car a big player in the Oscar race? I think it might be because it is a sleeper, an expected masterpiece. I don’t think many expected it to do this well with the critics and even they seem taking back by the fact it won the three biggest critics groups. Usually it’s predictable which film films will do very, especially films that sweep major critics groups. If it’s predicted, then it’s much easier for the film to in the conversation. It’s much more difficult to get traction late in the race after the events. Because people know, usually, beforehand who’s likely to win. But even so, it’s really peculiar that, outside of foreign film, it’s not getting any traction whatsoever.
It is pretty obvious why the film didn’t gain traction at more mainstream awards. There is NOTHING mainstream about it. It’s very cerebral, esoteric, restraint, unsentimental, long and slow-moving. It is the antithesis of what a typical Oscar film is. Great film but niche and appealing to a particular group of arthouse film fans, unlikely to gain mainstream traction beyond niche categories like International Feature Film and possibly Director but nothing more.
Well, you can put the film in any bracket you want, but it doesn’t change the fact that it it has three major critics groups. That doesn’t say to me niche. In fact, the complete opposite. Only five films have managed to unite these critics groups and all of them are masterpieces. And all of them have been Oscar nominated for BP and BD and other categories. The difference is more straightforward than you suggest and it’s to do with Hollywood’s reluctance to put non-Hollywood films non-English language films in the same boat as their films. Do you seriously expect us to believe that this film would be ignored if it was a Hollywood film let alone one with a big director and actors?
That is a misleading question to ask. It’s like asking “Do you seriously expect us to believe that FIRST COW would be ignored if it were directed by Martin Scorsese and starred Brad Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio?” The answer, of course, is that big name directors and big gigantic stars will always give films a headstart at the Oscars. Doesn’t matter if it’s something epic like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or something small and arthouse like FIRST COW or DRIVE MY CAR. Sure, foreign language films will always have a much harder time than English films. That didn’t stop Parasite, Roma and Minari from being nominated. BecUse foreign language films already face an uphill battle, when you add to that the artsy, inaccessible, film-festival friendly nature of a film like Drive My Car, plus how much you’ll always have people like Sasha just absolutely detesting the idea of a film like this getting nominated over Spidey, you have a triple whammy roadblock against its Best Picture nomination potential, triple-critics-awards-crown notwithstanding. I guess we’ll have the answer on Feb 8. I maintain it still has a shot at Best Director but no chance in hell of a Best Picture nomination. Not because it’s not a masterpiece, but because at its core, the Oscars are still a populist organization. Just not populist enough to nominate the likes of Spidey. But let’s not kid ourselves in thinking the Oscars is now a critics’ haven, whatever people like Sasha want you to believe .
Perhaps I was being a bit unfair, but the point is that the failure of the film to get traction in the awards season is about other things rather the quality or type of film. Also, it’s interesting to note people are now implying Parasite’s Best Picture win, let alone it’s nomination, was inevitable. That couldn’t be further from the truth. It benefited massively from being catapulted into the conversation from early on. Drive My Car, on the other hand, has been more stealthy and caught fire unexpectedly late on. Parasite was the exception, not the rule
Or course Parasite was a surprise. It broke all kinds of records when it won the Oscar. That said, if you put both films side by side, it’s easier to understand why Parasite would catch fire more than Drive My Car. Parasite is tremendously entertaining, more accessible, more emotional. There is a reason why it’s a global blockbuster hit. Drive My Car, on the other hand, is a different kind of masterpiece – challenging, cerebral, restraint, cold, everything that is the opposite of the kind of films that win Oscars. Sure, there is tragedy and grief – but the emotions are oh-so-reined-in and controlled. Even if it were to be an English film, it would fall into the category of films that First Cow is in, is my point. Even as an English film, it would have been quite challenging to embrace in masses. Critics can only carry a film so far by elevating it and bringing it into the attention of broad swaths of people. After that, the film has to do its own work. That is when you see charming little unambitious nothings like Belfast get embraced more easily than some of your perceived masterpieces. Because it has the one thing that still counts, the quality that defies any critical dissection: likability.
That means if I’m looking for the movie that might land in BP that isn’t in the PGA lineup, I might go for tick, tick…BOOM!
TTB *did* make it to the PGA list.
Maybe she can’t bring herself to say Drive My Car?