But what would M. Night like?
We’ve tried guessing the preferences of jury presidents many times before: Cate’s, Spike’s, Guillermo’s, just to name a few. But the question has probably never been more unanswerable than this time around. M. Night Shyamalan is not someone you necessarily associate with European film festivals and I think that’s what makes this choice of jury prez so inspired. What would such a quote unquote outsider’s view on world arthouse cinema be like? Will the director of OLD, SPLIT and GLASS turn out to be a closeted Hong Sang-soo fanatic? Will he have discovered the nasty beauty of Ulrich Seidl’s oeuvre?
All 18 films in competition at the 72nd Berlinale have now screened, which means of course it’s time for guesswork. Predicting festival awards – especially with the Berlinale – has proved an impossible task (see my terrible track record here, here and here) but, for the fun of it, we shall keep up the tradition.
This year, the general consensus on the ground is that 1) the quality of the competition is not as strong as usual; 2) there is otherwise no consensus. Speaking for myself and the limited sample of journalists I’ve spoken to, EVERY film has its share of detractors. There really isn’t one film that people seem to agree on. Let’s start from the beginning.
Outstanding Artistic Contribution
Will win: Anton Sanko (music of THE PASSENGERS OF THE NIGHT)
Should win: Anton Sanko (music of THE PASSENGERS OF THE NIGHT)
Speaking of consensus, French director Mikhaël Hers’ 80’s-set drama THE PASSENGERS OF THE NIGHT seems to be one of the very few competition titles this year that are at least widely liked. And it is indeed a lovely film about the people we meet and the unexpected legacies they leave behind. Shot and scored with great tenderness, it feels like one long nostalgic hug that would be hard to hate on. If the jury is ready to get behind a film that is not particularly ambitious in terms of subject matter or approach, it might conceivably win one of the top prizes. Otherwise, its lushly melancholic music is in any case awards-worthy.
There are not that many technical achievements I’d single out from this year’s lineup, maybe the cinematography of RETURN TO DUST, the art direction/costume of BEFORE, NOW & THEN, the figurines design of EVERYTHING WILL BE OK, or the music of BOTH SIDES OF THE BLADE.
Best Screenplay
Will win: THE LINE
Should win: THE LINE
Lots of haters of THE LINE but I like what I like and also, I truly don’t see many alternatives for the screenplay award. Another favorite of mine is AEIOU – A QUICK ALPHABET OF LOVE, but folks seem to resist it even more. RETURN TO DUST is a possibility, so are THE NOVELIST’S FILM and THE PASSENGERS OF THE NIGHT.
Best Supporting Performance
Will win: Larissa Corriveau (THAT KIND OF SUMMER)
Should win: Isabelle Adjani (PETER VON KANT)
Last year, Berlinale was the first major film festival to create gender-neutral acting awards. So, for the second time, we’ll have prizes for lead/supporting, instead of male/female performances. Potential contenders in the supporting category include Stefan Crepon (PETER VON KANT, which would be amazing but seems too gay a choice for this jury), Noée Abita (THE PASSENGERS OF THE NIGHT), Sigourney Weaver (CALL JANE). But I think the most likely to win out here are any one of the three actresses in THAT KIND OF SUMMER, in particular Larissa Corriveau, and 80’s icon Isabelle Adjani. If they consider Valeria Bruni Tedeschi’s performance in THE LINE as supporting (actually more of a co-lead), she’d also be in the running, me thinks.
Best Lead Performance
Will win: Vincent Lindon (BOTH SIDES OF THE BLADE)
Should win: Sophie Rois (AEIOU – A QUICK ALPHABET OF LOVE)
By far the most competitive category this year is lead performance. I could easily see any of the following take it:
Michael Thomas (RIMINI)
Wu Renlin (RETURN TO DUST)
Denis Ménochet (PETER VON KANT)
Vincent Lindon (BOTH SIDES OF THE BLADE)
Juliette Binoche (BOTH SIDES OF THE BLADE)
Sophie Rois (AEIOU – A QUICK ALPHABET OF LOVE)
Michèle Brand (A PIECE OF SKY)
Valeria Bruni Tedeschi and/or Stéphanie Blanchoud (THE LINE)
I have some issues with French director Claire Denis’ relationship drama BOTH SIDES OF THE BLADE, but its two leads are simply sensational, both so electrifyingly charismatic you can’t take your eyes off them. Michael Thomas also delivers an incredible, utterly lived-in performance as a sleazy, washed-up singer in RIMINI. No matter what you think of the film – and it is one wild film – this performance is undeniable. And what about Wu Renlin for his equally memorable portrayal of a reticent, kind-hearted farmer in RETURN TO DUST or Denis Ménochet as the gender-swapped cinematic icon Peter von Kant? Not to mention Sophie Rois’ mesmerizing star-turn in AEIOU – A QUICK ALPHABET OF LOVE, which would probably get my vote. Very hard to call.
Best Director
Will win: Paolo Taviani (LEONORA ADDIO)
Should win: François Ozon (PETER VON KANT)
I think Ozon did an amazing job adapting a classic like Fassbinder’s THE BITTER TEARS OF PETRA VON KANT and turning it into something new. I was also enthralled by Nicolette Krebitz’s work on AEIOU – A QUICK ALPHABET OF LOVE. Neither of these seems to have found broad support among critics, though. 90-year-old Italian director Paolo Taviani may end up taking this for his graceful, mysterious ode to time LEONORA ADDIO. Other candidates include Ulrich Seidl (RIMINI), Denis Côté (THAT KIND OF SUMMER) and Natalia López, who made her feature debut with the Mexican crime drama ROBE OF GEMS, which I had a hard time following but does show promise of a director willing to take risks and not playing it safe.
Jury Prize
Will win: RETURN TO DUST
Should win: RETURN TO DUST
I suspect RETURN TO DUST will win something, but I’m not sure what. If it doesn’t just outright win the Golden Bear (possible) or triumph in the screenplay or acting categories, I’d expect it to pop up for one of the jury prizes.
Grand Jury Prize
Will win: RIMINI
Should win: PETER VON KANT
I also suspect RIMINI will win something. The most obvious one would be for Michael Thomas’ exceptional lead performance. Barring that, watch out for it to take one of the top categories. The film screened at the start of the festival and managed to keep growing on me for its distinct vision.
Golden Bear
Will win: A PIECE OF SKY
Should win: AEIOU – A QUICK ALPHABET OF LOVE
The race for the Golden Bear is shaping up to be a battle of the farmers. Whether set in China (RETURN TO DUST), Catalonia (ALCARRÀS) or the Swiss Alps (A PIECE OF SKY), these films depict the lives of and the challanges faced by farmers, and are among the best-reviewed of the fest. I’m giving A PIECE OF SKY the edge for its emotional impact, but the other two or films like RIMINI, ROBE OF GEMS could also easily win in a year without consensus.
Looking at my list of predictions, I’m thinking this is too safe and there’s no way the jury won’t throw a curveball or two. But what would a fitting Shyamalanian last-act plot twist be in this case? We’ll find out very soon.
The awards for the 72nd Berlinale will be handed out tomorrow night (February 16) at 7pm local time.
