Best Actress often comes down to three things: likability of star, likeability of role, likability of movie. Since none of the Best Actress contenders at the Oscars have a Best Picture nomination (for the first time since 2006), that makes the “likability of film” part slightly more complicated. Ironically, the only SAG Best Actress nominee that has a SAG Ensemble nomination is Lady Gaga, whose House of Gucci was also shut out at the Oscars. It is a strange year indeed.
But today, let’s look at the three frontrunners for SAG.
The Frontrunner: Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Likeability of Actress — High (enjoying a later career appreciation)
Likeability of Role — High (Lucille Ball was and remains a national treasure)
Likeability of Movie — So/so (should have gotten either an ensemble nod or a Best Picture nomination but does have three acting nominations)
Nicole Kidman’s Oscar story starts early in her career, when she was trying to prove herself. One of the first things I heard about Kidman many years ago was that she was a lot more ambitious than people realized. This was back when she was more famous for being Tom Cruise’s wife than for anything else. That was probably seen as a bit of an insult, but the idea behind it was that Kidman was a serious actress — she wasn’t going to just be satisfied by being a plus one. Kidman’s first big role was in Dead Calm (it remains one of her absolute best), and over the years she has proven her versatility, courage, and watchability. The scenes with Kidman in the HBO series Big Little Lies are indeed the most compelling parts of the show.
Despite her lengthy and versatile career, Kidman has only been nominated for Best Actress four times: for Moulin Rouge! in 2001, The Hours in 2002, Rabbit Hole in 2011, and Being the Ricardos in 2021. She was also nominated for Supporting Actress in 2016 for Lion. But there are so many great roles she was not nominated for, To Die For in 1995 being at the top of that list. Dogville, The Human Stain, and Cold Mountain are three right in a row she was ignored for.
Kidman’s Oscar story is a long career with only one Oscar win. Granted, plenty of actresses have no Oscar wins, but Kidman has been acting for nearly 40 years.
Here is the record of most wins for leads:
- Katharine Hepburn, 12 nominations, 4 wins.
Next in line:
- Frances McDormand, 3 nominations, 3 wins
- Meryl Streep, 17 nominations, 2 wins
- Bette Davis, 10 nominations, 2 wins
- Ingrid Bergman, 6 nominations, 2 wins
- Jane Fonda, 6 nominations, 2 wins
- Elizabeth Taylor, 5 nominations, 2 wins
- Sally Field, 2 nominations, 2 wins
- Jodie Foster, 4 nominations, 2 wins
- Olivia de Havilland, 4 nominations, 2 wins
- Glenda Jackson, 4 nominations, 2 wins
- Vivien Leigh, 2 nominations, 2 wins
- Luise Rainer, 2 nominations, 2 wins
- Hilary Swank, 2 nominations, 2 wins
In recent times, it is harder for actresses to build the kind of clout in the industry they used to. Other than Meryl Streep and Frances McDormand, most of these multiple wins took place long ago (in a galaxy far, far away). Thus, it would be a high achievement for Nicole Kidman to win a second Oscar now, which would put her up there with Streep and McDormand — a spot she absolutely deserves.
Kidman’s performance in Being the Ricardos is made all the better by the material. Here, Aaron Sorkin’s screenplay (which should have been nominated — who are these people?) gives her so many great lines. Mostly it’s fun watching her play the smartest person in the room. That so many piled on when it was announced she would play Lucy only makes it all the more delicious that she was really that good.
Best asset: Kidman has never won a SAG Award for film, even when she won the Oscar for The Hours.
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Likeability of Actress — High
Likeability of Role — Medium (Chastain’s performance makes us like Tammy Faye)
Likeability of Movie — So/so (No Best Picture nomination)
Jessica Chastain is known for doing multiple roles in the same year, while completely transforming herself each time. In 2011, for instance, she made Take Shelter, Coriolanus, The Tree of Life, The Help, and Texas Killing Fields. Of those, she earned an Oscar nomination for The Help in Supporting Actress. In 2012, she made Lawless and Zero Dark Thirty, the latter for which she earned her first Best Actress nomination. In 2013, she did The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby, a couples drama in three complete parts that told their stories from different points of view, which she finished in 2014, along with Miss Julie, Interstellar, and A Most Violent Year. In 2015, she had strong supporting turns in The Martian and Crimson Peak, and then she was back in the Best Actress conversation in 2016-2017 with her work in Miss Sloane and Molly’s Game, garnering Golden Globe nominations for both.
Chastain has three Oscar nominations in total, which seems low considering the work she’s done so far in her career. She completely transforms herself into Tammy Faye Bakker, which was a passion project for her that she began researching in 2012. Chastain even sings her own songs in the film, which revolves around Bakker’s entire trajectory from a naive wife of a corrupt evangelical preacher to LGBTQ activist and flamboyant cultural icon.
Chastain’s Oscar story is simply that she hasn’t won yet. While she’s not quite in Amy Adams or Michelle Pfeiffer territory of being that overdue, she is considered someone who will eventually win an Oscar. She also delivers the most transformative work of those she’s nominated alongside. If actors see her work as being the highest level of difficulty (which they might), she could win. What makes her work so remarkable overall, but in Tammy Faye especially, is the compassion she brings to the character. You can’t watch this and come away not thinking more highly of Bakker. Chastain has nailed her accent, her mannerisms, and (I think) her spirit.
Best asset: high level of difficulty, research, and execution
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Likeability of Star — High
Likeability of Role — Complicated (she plays a darker character)
Likeability of Movie — So/so (Jessie Buckley is in but only at the Oscars)
Olivia Colman won Best Actress in a bit of a shocker for her work in The Favourite. She has been working as an actress steadily for the past 20 years, but rose to prominence with films like The Lobster and Tyrannasaur, and with prominent television shows like Broadchurch and, of course, Fleabag. She is a versatile, inventive, and exceptional actress, no matter what kind of character she plays. She is as good doing comedy as she is with heavy drama. She sees something in her characters that she delivers as a secret to the audience. That is why she is so good. She doesn’t deliver everything at once, but gives us glimpses into who her characters are without ever overdoing it. She is an absolute master of the form.
In The Lost Daughter, Colman has delivered yet another complex character whose inner life is a puzzle that she helps us solve bit by bit. By the end, she has completely come apart, but it took the entire film to get there. It has to be among her very best, if not her best performance. She plays a woman whose life if full of missing pieces and regrets. She tries to make the most of her “vacation,” but various events and people keep bringing her back to her own painful, lonely life. And even in this film, where she plays a tragic character, she somehow manages to be funny while doing it.
We know that there is a chance for a split vote scenario to play out at the SAG Awards, and if there is (at least by my calculations), Colman could pull in a win. That’s assuming the two redheads split their votes. But they might not be the two strongest. Colman and Kidman might be as former Best Actress winners, leaving Chastain with the advantage.
Either way, considering there are two different actresses at the Oscars that weren’t nominated for SAG, even if Kidman wins there is still a chance for a potential upset. Kristen Stewart has a pretty good Oscar story in that 1) she also delivered an transformative performance of a beloved public figure, and 2) she was not nominated for the SAG but was nominated for the Globe. Such was the case with both Christoph Waltz and Regina King. I’m not confident that the Best Actress race will be settled on SAG night.
The voting and timing of the awards was all over the place this year. It still might be all over the place as we head into the final stretch. But the one thing we do know for sure: when eyes scan the room and they see both Lady Gaga and Jennifer Hudson sitting there (if they show up), they will wonder why they didn’t make it all the way to the Big Show. Lady Gaga is a huge star who would have helped boost the Oscar ratings. She was the only one with a Globe, a BAFTA, and a SAG. Her “snub” will be bigger news. But Hudson should also not be forgotten.
This year was an extremely competitive year for Best Actress. In the end, only one can win. As of right now, we still have no idea who that will be.