Checking in with the Oscar Squad as Voting Nears

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We are now in a post nominations, post SAG, and post a few guilds environment, so the Oscar Squad is taking pulse of the race just before voting starts on March 17. Interestingly, CODA’s win (and The Power of the Dog’s shut-out) at the SAG Awards swayed none of the Oscar Squad. Unlike other Oscar prognosticators across the circuit. The Power of the Dog is, for now, the unanimous favorite to win Best Picture at the 2022 Academy Awards as is Jane Campion for Best Director.

The uniform agreement ends there.

If the Oscar Squad team is correct, then The Power of the Dog should walk away with four of the 10 categories we cover. Does that feel right? The most dissension exists in the Adapted Screenplay category where The Lost Daughter’s win at the Scripter Awards for Maggie Gyllenhaal’s screenplay surprised many, putting her in a prime position to spoil.

For Best Actor, most everyone predicts Will Smith after his expected win at the SAG Awards, and that feels right to be honest. Last year, the late Chadwick Boseman was in the same spot and ended up losing famously to Sir Anthony Hopkins following Hopkin’s win at BAFTA. There are a few big differences between Boseman and Smith, though. This year, viewers were able to see Smith accept his own award with a teary acceptance speech in front of a massive assembled audience. That certainly warms the heart of potentially hesitant voters (if they even existed at all). Boseman’s widow, last year, accepted for him with a heartbreaking speech, but she wasn’t able to connect with a live audience given the Zoom-only SAG Awards last year. Additionally, last year, Boseman’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom wasn’t a Best Picture nominee while Hopkins’s The Father was. If Smith loses Best Actor, then it’s likely to be against near-certain BAFTA front runner Benedict Cumberbatch given The Power of the Dog’s Best Picture status. Andrew Garfield’s Tick… Tick.. BOOM! failed to merit a Best Picture nomination, handicapping him for the win.

The real question on everybody’s lips is who is going to win Best Actress? The Oscar Squad largely shifted toward Jessica Chastain following her SAG Awards win over Nicole Kidman. What that win did was largely take Kidman out of the equation. However, there are two wild cards in Kristen Stewart and Penelope Cruz, neither of whom was nominated at SAG. Can Chastain maintain her momentum? The Squad certainly thinks so with a few predicting Stewart and Kidman.

Check out the rest of our categories below. Do you agree with the Oscar Squad? What shockers should we be expecting as the winners are announced on March 27? Will you watch if they’re not all announced on camera?

Or maybe I shouldn’t stir that pot…