not so fun if you’re Benedict! I wish Jane had chosen BAFTA to attend. I felt for Cumberbatch having to accept for her, having just lost the Best Actor award. He should have won for The Imitation Game. Such a great actor. So good in The Electrical Life of Louis Wain as well. Nice moment though when the film won BP, Benedict and Kodi ascending the podium together. Noticable solidarity.
Not exactly. Cumberbatch has been nominated twice for BAFTA film awards and lost twice, and he has been nominated 7 times for BAFTA TV awards and won once (for ”Patrick Melrose”). So Cumberbatch has a BAFTA. Glenn Close has 8 Academy Award nominations with no wins. But she does share something in common with Cumberbatch: They are both two-time losers for BAFTA film awards. … And if Kenneth Branagh leaves empty-handed at the upcoming Oscars, he’ll share something in common with Close: 8 nominations without a win.
What critics are these? NY, LA, SF, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Southeastern, Florida, Chicago, Utah, Dallas-Ft. Worth, North Carolina, Houston, Austin, Oklahoma, Seattle, North Dakota, Iowa Central Ohio, New Mexico, London, Music City, Boston Online, NY Online and whatever/wherever the Online Film Critics Society is all gave Smit-McPhee best supporting actor. Are they not a part of some incredibly awful presentation called the Critics Choice Awards?!
Critics’ Choice is mainly TV and internet critics (I think Sasha is a member). Organizations like NYFCC are mostly critics from newspapers and magazines.
Ha. There are no true criteria to be part of this so-called “Critics” Group. They are mostly Oscar pundits. They are no better/worse than the Golden Globes members. Sasha is a member, and whatever Sasha is, she isn’t a film critic.
At the end of the day, this is a $-making TV show capitalizing on the Oscars.
If you ask me, there are way too many critics groups. Now, seemingly each city, region and state has one. Even though critics are supposed opinionated individuals, they seem to vote like sheep at awards season. It’s like a self-congratulatory exercise in who can predict or influence the Oscars. It becomes an echo chamber of lazy thinking. And sadder still, it’s even setting the table for the industry and guild prizes.
Good on you BAFTA awarding the great Joanna Scanlan. A simply superb performance and a talented woman. Overnight success at 60! For those unacquainted with her, check out ‘Pin Cushion’ another award worthy performance.
Explains Campion’s most stupid comment about Williams sisters. She’s obviously very insecure about Dog’s winning prospect which now leads to late in the game victim card playing. First her rebuttal to Elliott’s 2-3 weeks old comments and now this WTF speech. Her Director win is secured but she wants more and the industry supposedly sin’t too keen on her movie. hence ramping up “muh opression” rhetoric.
The Williams sisters appeared to enjoy her off-the-cuff comment. The anti-Campion camp were out in full force on Film Twitter like wolves looking for any remote opportunity to dismantle her and her film, I see. Whatever. The spirit of Harvey Weinstein is very much alive.
that doesn’t change the fact that she is insecure hence suddenly ramping up the victim card. CODA industry buzz must be very strong. Perhaps not strong enough to pull an upset but good enough to make her reach for muh opression men baaad rhetoric.
She was quirky and spontaneous, looked tipsy, threw all caution to the wind, and seemed to just say anything that came to her mind. If that’s insecure to you and playing the victim card, so be it. Who cares. Watch the video. If you think that’s a scheming calculated person playing victim to win Oscars (as if she needed to by this point), that’s on you, and the typically outraged world of social media. People can’t seem to tell the difference between a questionable joke and genuine nastiness. Like Jimmy Kimmel said about Billy Crystal, Billy would never have been able to survive this trigger-happy culture of horrifying outrage and hypocrisy if he were doing all the characters he did on SNL today.
My guess is the Williams sisters, even though they seemed genuinely amused and entertained by her joke in the video clip, probably won’t speak up to defend her if this brings The Power of the Dog down a few notches in the totem pole of most likely Best Picture Oscar winners, and elevate King Richard’s own prospects.
Yes she is scheming because she wants to win more than one big award and only one is guaranteed. She could have made a speech without muh victimhood/please have sympathy. She’s the frontrunner, act like one (translation: don’t kvetch).
the weak whine. She’s been whining for 2 days now except that one was met with yas Kweening and the other with pitchforks. Either way, whining is unbecoming of the frontrunner.
I didn’t it see as whining. I thought it was bold and funny and well set-up. I wasn’t sure where she was going with all of the tennis talk and the payoff was surprising. It got a rousing response in the room including from the sisters. So I don’t know what backlash you’re talking about.
One the one hand, people say that it was risky and might hurt her chance. And you’re saying that she’s being manipulative and scheming to win the awards.
nothing will hurt her chance to win Director but wants Picture too at least. Script is also in play and both are threatened by the same warm likable movie with a social justice cause. So yes, it is a manipulation.
If Director frontrunners need to “act” to win Oscars like they do in America, then f** the Oscars. Maybe you’re right, Oscar winners always need to know what to say, how to say it, calculate every word they say, peddle sob stories while they’re at it, that’s how you win. Worked for Julia Roberts and Jennifer Lawrence and looks like it’s going to work for Will Smith.
dude, her speech was calculated. the part about having it tough because of men was 100% calculation. It just seems that she went off the script a bit with Serena and Venus which backfired.
Congratulations to Will Smith, Troy Kotsur, Jessica Chastain & Ariana DeBose which will carry over to the Oscars! Congrats Dog even though I didn’t think it was The Best Picture but Jane Campion WAS Best Director.
Film Editing is interesting. Dune was the heavy favorite but it lost ACE Eddie to King Richard, BAFTA to No Time To Die and CC to West Side Story………
sassy girl had perosnality. ZDT one had none. One note plot forwarder. Everyone with half brain could have seen she was not going to win for that flatness.
Of course everyone with half a brain would know you speak for everyone with half a brain. My personal favorite was Emmanuelle Riva. Sassy girl can go fly kite with her Oscar in my opinion. Riva is the real deal.
I think to The Tree of Life, Zero Dark Thirty, Molly’s Game and A most Dangeous year and to the future cinephile Kids who will know that another great actress won the Oscar for another s**tty movie
Make up Oscars given to performances in s**tty movies are unfortunately still very common. Though no one put the gun to her head since she produced this Oscar Bait 101 s***. Actors know what they are doing. It’s fans who hate makeup Oscars while actors only want the oscar doesn’t matter for what.
Top 5 things i want to see at the oscars(just for fun)
1. Flee upsets summer of soul in documentary feature
2. Will smith does his victory dance
3. Belfast wins lucky 7 including best picture
4. Robin robin wins animated short film
5. Tributes to Sidney Poitier, Ivan reitman and william hurt
OK, let’s play – not seriously!!! – at this. (keep it fun)
TOP 5 THINGS THAT I WOULD LOVE TO SEE HAPPEN AT THE OSCARS (just for the sake of it)
1) The Power of the Dog wins 12 Oscars, thanks to a tie in Supporting Actor.
2) Flee takes its 3 nominations
3) Don’t Look Up takes Picture, Original and Film Editing
4) Parallel Mothers wins both
5) both leads and supporting winners being real life couples.
1. Anyone but Will Smith
2. Coda sweep it’s 3 Oscars
3. Anyone but KStew
4. Spielberg (was I the only one cringing at Campions speech?)
5. Lin finally completing his EGOT
I, too, second (and, like you, upvoted) what Sammy said. DMC for all 4 wins, with no hesitation from me.
But I think that from the list of nominees, the descriptor “exceptional” should also be applied to WSS. I can’t think of anyone besides Spielberg who could have, in a musical, mixed exhilaration with grit so effectively.
What’s also exceptional this year but not on the list, where it should be: Passing.
I´m a bit mixed about WSS because I felt it was too oldschool and conventional to grab my interest. Spielberg should have gone much further in adapting the material, for instance transferring the plot in our present time. The whole scenery looked so artificial and fake to me. Passing was not my cup of tea either, it looked too polished and neat. But the acting in both films is very good.
1) Best Picture – West Side Story
2) Best Director – Hamaguchi
3) Best Actor – Garfield
4) Best Actress – Cruz
5) Best Adapted Screenplay – Hamaguchi, Oe
Thank you Critics Choice for making SENSE and awarding:
Film Editing: West Side Story (a no-brainer pick, absolutely amazing)
Squid Game (x2), What If?, Bo Burham’s Inside and The Mitchells vs. the Machines, a poker of absolutely great picks as well.
And well, most of the winners can already write their Oscar acceptance speeches… this gives The Power of the Dog now the chance to win 3-4 at the very least…
Locked: Picture, Director
Looking safe or likely: Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography
Still possible: Supporting Actor, Kodi Smit-McPhee (but Plemmons’ nomination has damaged his chances tremendously, along with Kotsur’s surge)
At this point I’d say The Power of the Dog takes Picture AND Director, and one of those three, Adapted, Cinematography or Supporting Actor. Score could surprise as well, but it looks now as a 3 Oscar, Best Picture winner.
Locked:
Picture, Director, all 4 Actors. I know you are still hoping for Cruz surprise but CC dumped KStew for safe pick Chastain, which I called ever since she won SAG, so that is locked loaded sealed and delivered. There will be no last minute shock.
I guess there’s wiggle room in Scripts and Editing but that’s about it.
“I know you are still hoping for Cruz surprise”. Only NOW it would be a surprise. Before this, the race was still wide open, with strong narratives for all 5… now, anyone not named Chastain would be a relative surprise, but not a shocker.
I concede that Chastain is the weakest frontrunner of all acting categories. Smith and DuBose swept. Kotsur locked 2 industry awards (SAG + BAFTA). Chastain only has SAG but, while I hate to bring up an iffy measurement of support such as BAFTA Longlist, Chastain made that unlike Cruz and Stewart. So she can expect some British support too.
1) Dueness in that sense… 1) Chastain 2) Stewart 3) Cruz 4) Kidman 5) Colman
2) Passion about the performance/film… 1) Cruz 2) Colman 3) Stewart 4) Chastain 5) Kidman, if you ask me about what I perceived in the last months.
3) Uniqueness – separation from the rest of the contenders + originality – of the performance… then we would have 1) Cruz 2) Colman 3) Chastain 4) Stewart 5) Kidman, also my perception.
I still think, anyone can win. But I am thinking Chastain, and if anyone upsets, I am thinking Cruz is the likeliest.
well, Cruz makes sense as a passion upset more than lets say Kidman in a similar role/performance (biopic, makeup) to Chastain. Kidman and Chastain are basically fighting for the same middlebrow voters though I guess Kidman can at least count on Aussie Block, while Chastain is seen as more transformative and should have more domestic support.
That said, Cruz didn’t show up anywhere with precursors except AACTA and she even missed BAFTA loglist. Moreover, she is the only nominee from her movie. Everyone else except Stewart has some other nomination that shows wider support (eg. Chastain +Hair&Makeup, Kidman + Bardem + Simmonds, Colman + Buckley + Gyllenhaal). So, like CODA, she would have to break several stats to pull off an upset. Not impossible but very unlikely.
“That said, Cruz didn’t show up anywhere with precursors except AACTA and she even missed BAFTA loglist. Moreover, she is the only nominee from her movie”
Cruz won LAFCA and NSFC to add to her Volpi Cup win in Venice Film Festival, over Stewart. That assures that it was all the alarm signals that she could get snubbed, what provoked the wave of calls urging AMPAS members to see the film.
Plus, Parallel Mothers is also nominated for Original Score (Alberto Iglesias’ 4th nomination, by the way), in addition to its Golden Globes nominations for Score and Foreign Film. (What is more, that didn’t happen with “Volver”, and she probably only lost the Oscar back then, because she was facing an overdue and Best Picture nominated Helen Mirren for “The Queen”)
”The Mitchells vs. the Machines” just won big at the Annie Awards, and now at Critics Choice. Is it the new front-runner for Animated Film at the Oscars (and not ”Encanto”)? … I keep hoping that ”Flee” will surprise and win Animated Film, as it has at L.A. Film Critics. A shame. Its theme about escaping refugees is even more topical and timely in the wake of Ukraine. Historically, ”Flee” is up for 3 Oscars, but I suspect it’ll go home empty-handed, losing Animated (to ”The Mitchells” or ”Encanto”), International Flim (to ”Drive My Car”) and Documentary (to ”Summer of Soul”).
i LOVED that ”Belfast” won 3 prizes: Original Screenplay, Best Young Actor/Actress and Best Ensemble. Jude Hill, 11, was adorable receiving his award from last year’s winner, Alan Kim, 9, from ”Minari.” Jamie Dornan was so charming accepting the ensemble prize for ”Belfast” when he remarked that the win ”was not expected and so incredible to receive this.” He then quipped, ”Critics are usually not very nice to me, so this was a change.” I also enjoyed the later comic bit Dornan did with Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumulo, his co-stars from ”Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar,” which was a Critics Choice nominee for Best Comedy. Wiig and Mumolo acted as if they weren’t aware Dornan was in a film called ”Belfast,” and confused it with a film about SlimFast.
And bravo to Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn for their surprise Critics Choice win for brilliantly editing ”West Side Story.” I’m still astonished they weren’t nominated for an Oscar, and I continue to be confused about why it wasn’t up for an Eddie. (Was it submitted in the Drama catregory instead? It should’ve been in the same category as ”tick … tick … BOOM!,” another musical.)
I’ve experienced some DeJa’Vu after seeing the BFCA. TPOTD won the same 4 awards as Nomadland did last year. And the latter only picked up 3 at the Oscars: Picture, Directing, and Actress. Although both movies are entirely different from one another, it makes me wonder how many TPOTD is gonna take home. It’s definitely NOT gonna be a sweeper (i.e.: Gravity, TLOTR: TROTK, Slumdog Millionaire). It could yet be another one of those Best Pictures that only picks up 3, maybe 4 wins at best. That seems to be the new norm for Oscars. However, I do see Dune sweeping the below-the-line categories. I know it can’t win Picture or Adapted Screenplay. The latter may go to CODA since it got the BAFTA in a surprising twist over DMC, Dune, TLD and TPOTD.
Interestingly, Dune won Cinematography at BAFTA where, like the Oscars, was criminally snubbed for Directing too. So MAYBE the same thing could happen for Dune at the Oscars. The last Best Picture nominee to win Cinematography without a Best Directing nod was Inception. Both sci-fi movies. Both Nolan and Villeneuve robbed. Could we be experiencing some DeJa’Vu come Oscar night?
For Dune’s chances, its Oscar tally could wind up being 4, 5, maybe even more. We just witnessed the love it got at the BAFTAs with its 5 victories. Whatever the tally it winds up winning at the Oscars, it looks like Dune could easily pick up more statuettes than TPOTD could.
Speaking of which, the final test that TPOTD has to conquer is that preferential voting system in which the BAFTAs, BFCAs, and the GGs don’t have. It differentiates from your standard voting system. And last year’s Nomadland conquered all of that with flying colors.
I’m sad. Will Smith is not that great an actor to my account but that’s ok. Benedict Cumberbatch will prove his worth in the long run – like Gregory Peck not getting it for Moby Dick BUT for ATTICUS Finch.
Gregory Peck’s greatest role is as Atticus Finch so, in that regard, yes I hope Benedict Cumberbatch wins for his best performance and not some belabored, over-thought masculine nonsense.
You just have to pay to be able to vote for Spirit. Not an industry. Furthermore, most of the contenders were not eligible. Can’t include Spirits as a gauge.
Dune will win for Part II, if it delivers. Remember, Peter Jackson was nominated for the 1st LotR film as writer, was passed for the 2nd (!!! I thought it was the best written of the 3!!!) and won finally for the last one.
They will hold to see the whole “picture” before showering Dune with above the line Oscars.
Remember, LotR as a triptic, holds the Oscar record for wins in most categories… 12… the 11 that Return of the King won, plus Cinematography for Fellowship of the Ring. It earned 17 Oscar wins (all time record for a franchise, as well?)
If anyone upsets Campion at adapted, as usual with Oscar, would be an actor turned writer, so The Lost Daughter might win.
It should be said that Roma is the only real precedent for The Power of the Dog losing at the PGA. Although it is a pretty good one, for many reasons. (Netflix, big critical darling, “boring” label – with which most will disagree around here, when it comes to Dog, but that was also the case for Roma, yet plenty of people clearly did find it to be boring -, also a DGA-only winner among the major guilds except PGA, also a nominations leader, even if only a co-leader, also a movie snubbed for ensemble at SAG, even if it also had zero acting nominations there.) It was the true Globe winner (it won directing and foreign and wasn’t eligible in drama picture to take down the horribly stats-flawed Bohemian Rhapsody, which I think it’s hard to argue it wouldn’t have, had it been eligible) and won the Critics Choice BP, BAFTA Best Film and the DGA. No other movie that has ever won those three (there are 10 in total) has failed to also win the PGA.
I don’t know. I think a lot of people underestimated how popular and likeable Bohemian Rhapsody was to so many people that season. A Star Is Born was there, ripe for the taking, but didn’t wrestle BP drama from BR.
Not sure if Roma would automatically take it from BR had it been in Drama BP lineup.
We all saw how much “love” there was for A Star is Born that awards season… 🙂 Did it even win anything other than song anywhere?! I think that drama category was one where they just weren’t passionate about anything and it was a very close vote and that’s why Bohemian Rhapsody could squeak out a win, as weak as it was. Their favorites were pretty clearly Green Book and Roma. I’m not saying it’s 100%, of course, but to me it’s hard to buy the arguments that BR was ahead of Roma at those Globes.
The point is BR win was very surprising (shocking even), even without Roma being there. A Star Is Born was more populous than Roma. It got 5 nods, Roma 3. BR, 2.
Since it’s so surprising, we don’t really know how far the surprise it could have been. Could it win by a wide margin (within the 100 votes)? It won 4 (out of 5) Oscars! That movie was very very popular.
Sure, GG would probably want to predict/influence the Oscars by going for Roma as BP drama, but voters do go bonkers when a fever is infecting them. And BR was that year’s fever.
“Could it win by a wide margin (within the 100 votes)? It won 4 (out of 5) Oscars! That movie was very very popular.”
Yeah, but it still didn’t win picture, nor did it win it anywhere else that season. Meanwhile, Roma won it most places… (So, in a sense, saying it could have beaten Roma at the Globes is like saying CODA can win BP at the Oscars this year, also with no other BP wins anywhere, just because it’s clearly very popular and winning a lot in its other categories where it’s nominated, which, as with BR, are very few.)
True, there are a lot fewer GG voters than Oscar voters. Clearly, it might have won. The Globes are less predictable, of course. I’m just saying it’s not likely at all, based on the evidence.
I mean, Belfast, which nobody thinks is doing well right now (or that there’s any great passion for it – but maybe the PGA will prove that wrong, still, since at least there are encouraging signs from the BFCA), is even doing way, way better than A Star is Born was.
Picture – The Power of the Dog, I guess??? Lets see what PGA does; BIG hurdle. TPOTD and Belfast impressed at CC.
Director – Campion. But I don’t think her iffy CC speech did her any favors.
Actor – Smith. Done.
Actress – Chastain ahead of Kidman and Colman. Stewart needed the CC win (and an onstage moment) to give her a leg up. If Chastain wins, I don’t think it will be a runaway victory. The percentages will likely be splicey dicey.
S. Actor – Kotsur. Done.
S. Actress – DeBose. I think WSS admirers will primarily coalesce votes here.
Orig. Screenplay – leaning Belfast because AMPAS liked it a lot more than Licorice Pizza.
Adapted Screenplay – Sheesh. Gonna go CODA, with The Lost Daughter (Gyllenhaal love) as a spoiler. I’m just not going TPOTD anymore, here.
Editing – Dune, mostly because of the corresponding Sound nom. But could be King Richard (ACE winner) or Tick, Tick … BOOM! a la Dragon Tattoo all those years ago. West Side Story deserves the win that it got at CC; a shame it wasn’t recognized by AMPAS.
Cinematography – Dune. I think Greg Fraser admiration (also for The Batman) puts him slightly over the top of TPOTD.
Production Design – Dune. Nightmare Alley (AMPAS loves Del Toro’s art direction aesthetic) or West Side Story (a la Lincoln) threatening here.
Costumes – Cruella. Done.
Hair/Make-Up – The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Picking up steam. Chastain and this category are helping each other out.
Sound – Dune. West Side Story feels like the runner-up, to me.
FX – Dune. Done.
Score – Dune. Zimmer has had a good day.
Song – No Time to Die. Encanto close on its heels.
Animated – Encanto. I think its 3 noms (+ popularity right now) help it get a win over the Mitchells late surge.
Doc – Summer of Soul. Done.
International – Drive My Car. Done.
That leaves TPOTD with 2. Belfast with 1. Coda with 2. Dune with 6.
That all feels odd, to me. I can see Belfast taking Best Picture to make it 2. CODA winning all 3 of its noms including Best Picture would be something; especially since noms for it for directing, editing and cinematography were likely far down the tally. So, to that, I have a hard time seeing it win the big award. Time will tell! 🙂
The Critics Choice NEVER FAILED to predict the Oscars! It seems like they exist solely for that. The only surprising thing they didn’t do this year was to pencil in Spider-man No Way Home among their Best Picture nominees.
Next year….can you hang in there till then? The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent. Pig was just too niche, too far off the grid and really didn’t make sense.
All SAG ensemble + acting winners that also won the BAFTA and/or WGA for screenplay:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – also two SAG and BAFTA acting wins, also a Globe screenplay win (ineligible at WGA) The King’s Speech – also 1 SAG acting win and 3 BAFTA acting wins, won screenplay at the Critics Choice (ineligible at WGA) Traffic – 1 SAG+BAFTA acting win, won screenplay at Critics Choice, Globes and WGA No Country for Old Men – also 1 SAG+BAFTA acting win, won screenplay at the Globes and WGA American Beauty – also 2 SAG+BAFTA acting wins, won screenplay at Critics Choice, Globes and WGA Shakespeare in Love – also 1 SAG acting win and 2 BAFTA acting wins, won screenplay at Critics Choice, Globes and WGA
So, a good conversion rate, but, as usual, the snubs make all the difference – the 4/6 that won Best Picture at the Oscars had no major industry snubs whatsoever, while the 2 that lost each had at least one. So, overall, I’d say precedents still aren’t looking good for CODA. So far, it’s just a much weaker statistically (but I guess much more beloved, nonetheless) Three Billboards. It remains to be seen which will count more, the stats evidence or the “buzz”. I probably don’t need to restate which of the two has usually/always prevailed thus far in such situations… (This, pending a potential PGA win – which I don’t see happening, after it failed to win more than one award at Critics Choice, out of four nominations, at least three of which it could have won. But, should it somehow win that, it would at least muddy the waters just a tiny bit, since the two above that lost the Oscar didn’t win the PGA. Traffic wasn’t even nominated.)
Other BAFTA screenplay winners that won neither the Globe, nor the Critics Choice in the same category, and are close enough in strength to CODA to constitute precedents:
(Preferential era-only – not 100% sure when BAFTA changed its voting procedures in all categories to resemble the one used by AMPAS… It was around 2011, no?)
Parasite – no SAG/BAFTA acting nominations or wins, but a SAG ensemble win The Theory of Everything – 1 BAFTA+SAG acting win (but no ensemble win) American Hustle – 1 BAFTA acting win (no SAG acting wins) and SAG ensemble win Silver Linings Playbook – 1 SAG acting win (no BAFTA acting wins) but no ensemble win The Artist – 1 BAFTA+SAG acting win (but no ensemble win)
I would say these are all close enough (all with at least one win at BAFTA/SAG and the ensemble nomination), since all of them were doing much better than CODA on the nominations front. (The Theory of Everything is the only one that wasn’t doing much, much better, but BAFTA Best Film nomination, 5 Oscar nods… Still clearly stronger.) And they have a conversion rate of 2/5, and the only one that’s even kinda’ close in overall strength to CODA, as discussed, didn’t win Best Picture. So, again, not looking very good.
I do like that CODA and King Richard are managing to at least keep things interesting…
In terms of the stats puzzle (and, therefore, the question of what should really be predicted), this is still interesting. Only if Dog wins the PGA will it no longer be that… 🙂 Maybe you think it’s locked to win the PGA. I don’t.
I don’t think it’s locked, but I think it’s going to happen. 😉
The stats puzzle may be interesting at this point, but the Best Picture race itself is more disappointing. I find half the nominees negligible, and of the other half the “frontrunner” is my number three or four choice.
Eight possible wins for Dune tonight, and they can only scrape 3. But this is merely a preview of 2024 when some arthouse stuff denies Dune part 2 of its just reward even if they get 100% on RT, 90 on MC. There needs to be an indepth article on sci-fi bias over the years, where it started and why it persists to this second.
By the way, Dune still has a chance to win fan favorite of the year Oscar. You can vote for it 20 times every day for the rest of the month. See, there’s always a silver lining. Don’t be so blue.
I truly disliked both of her speeches. Came off as very much the opposite of humble, to me. (Would be a bit more understandable if she was under the influence, but even then, I don’t know… very unlikable, at least for my tastes.) Maybe her Oscar speech(es) will be better. I’ve never seen her speaking before and this was not a good first impression.
Also, by the way, is that the reason she chose to attend the Critics Choice Awards instead of BAFTA? Her more informal style? Or did she just think her movie had better chances there? (Netflix might have had a say in the decision too, I guess.) Not what I would have expected, in any case.
She’s always been quirky! I love her. I love seeing Taika (as a presenter), Lynskey and her up on stage tonight exuding so many kiwi-isms while all being such impressive people. There aren’t that many of us out showing off our art and way of being on the global stage (I feel like we only get a few at any given time) so it does make me really proud seeing it.
She’s just an amazing person! She was making similar comments around the time of the piano and earlier. She’s actually done so much for female representation in the film industry. May she never stop!
The Hunger Games homage continues to exercise mass osmosis with critics…TV is not that hard up, quality-wise, to turn to a South Korean import to hand key awards to.
You imply that South Korean tv – especially South Korean tv you haven’t watched and will never make an effort to – isnt of a high enough caliber to win awards
Wow, editing truly is all over the place this year!… And, there you go: Belfast DID win screenplay here! I knew it must have a chance. So at least it’s stats-valid for the PGA win in that way… Also, CODA didn’t repeat, so maybe there’s a chance it doesn’t win at WGA, at least. (Which it needs, according to what I’m looking at on breaks. Even with a PGA win and even modifying the system so that it’s valid at all – which does seem to be a bit easier than I had anticipated, even if there does appear to be just one way to do it. But it requires a single change which isn’t necessarily illogical/unjustified. More on that later.)
Awarding the same people all the time gets tired. Let’s some others get their moment in the sunshine. Anyway, he and Spielberg stand a better chance next year.
There are times to spread the wealth, CC’s, and other times to go all the fuck in. You’re not doing the latter by giving POTD Adapted Screenplay + Cinematography and WSS Editing.
Many Americans do that when they’re up against Brit in strong film and strong performance. I think he probably thought Cumberbatch was going to win and he had a better chance at the BFCA. He’s not wrong as BAFTA don’t tend to go for black filmmakers, generally.
No surprise with Supporting categories and figure Smith Best Actor. It’s Best Actress I’m intrigued by more to see if Chastain continues momentum, Kidman gets it or Stewart throws a spoiler into things.
Even though ‘The Eyes Of Tammy Faye’ was critically lambasted Jessica Chastain still won beating critics darling Kristen Stewart. That should seal the deal for Best Actress. From here would it be a BIG upset if Chastain were to lose? Are all the four acting categories now locked for the Oscar like 2017?
Critics are not good precursors. Sometimes they overlap, sometimes they don’t. Until CC (which is basically lets see what precursors say and try to predict Oscars rather than voting for what/who they think is best), critics awards largely went to Kodi and Cumberbatch with Cruz actually scoring more important wins than KStew. But yes, they weren’t in Chastain tank. I don’t remember who was their support actress push. DeBose and someone else. Campion and Dog swept but DMC picked up a number of Picture awards.
Chastain is winning because her performance is AMPAS catnip. That kind of performance was never critic’s thing. CC are Pundits Choice really so that’s different.
Chastain is now winning unless shocker surprise. I think that the deciding factor – this is full of pundits – was how due she is to win, when 3 of the main contenders at Oscars, are already Oscar winners (and Stewart has a long career in front of her, yet)
You make good, clear sense. Also, in an imperfect movie — mainly, the script is too long and diffuse — Chastain is remarkably good. Her intricate, rapid-fire variations in vocal inflections and facial and bodily expressions made Tammy fresh, blooming and irritatingly contradictory, like a real person.
One last thing, for tonight – I didn’t get too much sleep before these shows, so I should try to go to bed as soon as possible… So, like I said, over the last few hours, including during the show, on breaks, I’ve been taking a very good look at what changes could/would need to be made to my system for CODA to become stats-valid, which it’s currently not. This research seems necessary now because of the strong support from multiple industry groups suggested primarily by its BAFTA screenplay win, but also Kotsur’s sweep. (Which was more expected, after the SAG wins for the movie.) Before this, there was no particularly good argument that it was anything other than a supporting actor winner and a big favorite at SAG, and neither of those things means any particular strength for a BP win. But a possible screenplay win (since it’s likely also winning the WGA, although it also might not), coupled with said acting win, does.
So, long story short… (Yes, believe me, the whole story is even longer than this post!) I think I’ve looked at every possibility and, unless I was to completely change the whole basic approach of my system, which would clearly be a massive overreaction and I’m simply never going to do it – if that’s what it takes, then it’s just going to have to fail this year (and I’ll do the whole rethink then, if necessary), if CODA is indeed the new Parasite, despite the heaps of mega-strong stats evidence to the contrary -, the only possible way for it to ever become the (modified) system’s favorite (without said system then failing to predict any of the previous PGA era winners correctly, as a result of the changes) would be for me to put back into the set of snubs used for the WGA+1 rule (which says a movie that is eligible for and fails to win the WGA needs to not have been snubbed for picture/PGA, director/DGA or editing/ACE by the guilds or AMPAS, in order to be a valid potential Best Picture winner) the SAG Ensemble nomination. Then, coupled with The Power of the Dog‘s failure to dominate screenplay, this would mean there would be a fully reasonable interpretation of the guild and Oscar stats situation which would make all of the movies in the race out to not be stats-valid (because The Power of the Dog‘s WGA ineligibility, one that says nothing, either way, about its strength or weakness in the BP race, should not, logically, be a shield for it from the WGA+1 rule, the one it might have fallen to had it been eligible – again, only if the ensemble nomination were to be added back to the list of snubs which can activate this rule), leaving the branch/weakness count to decide matters.
Even with this change, CODA would then still absolutely have to win both the PGA and WGA to come out ahead of The Power of the Dog in that count. And I don’t think it’s doing that, like I said. But, if it does win the WGA and Dog wins the PGA, I might nevertheless consider predicting CODA unofficially, in spite of my system and the stats (which would of course still pick Dog at that point), because then it would at least almost make sense that it could maybe break all of those age-old combined stats that have never been broken. As for making the alteration to the system detailed above, I’m not fully convinced it’s warranted, even though it does work out (the four ensemble-snubbed BP winners all either won the WGA or would win their head-to-head match-ups against all other contenders in none-are-valid situations, like the one in Green Book‘s year), and I’m not sure I’ll decide it makes enough sense. In fact, I think it probably doesn’t – it would lead to there being too many exceptions to the WGA+1 rule (both Green Book and The Shape of Water, which is a lot for an elimination rule – I’m not even fully comfortable with the one exception there already is, Green Book, with its directing snub at the Oscars, being there, and I don’t trust this elimination rule as much as some of my other ones, as a result, but I just about have to, mostly due to Apollo 13 vs. Braveheart, which truly can’t be resolved in favor of Braveheart any other way, with an all-industry approach), even if both would come out as the system’s favorites, nonetheless.
In any case, I will only need to make a decision on this if CODA wins the PGA. Mostly, I’m banking on CODA not winning that and hoping it shows further weakness by not winning the WGA (thus providing a final key clue), despite a seemingly very easy category and its BAFTA win. A WGA defeat for it would be enough for me to trust the system’s prediction as is. Not that I wouldn’t still be nervous about it, but at least I would fully agree with it logically, in that case. Then, it would be closest to American Hustle, as a precedent (even ignoring the evidence provided by CODA’s snubs, not that one should), a losing one. It also wouldn’t be a SAG+WGA winner… Perhaps even more important, as that’s always a scary combo to predict against, even if it’s never led to a win before when any Oscar snubs for directing or editing (or a PGA snub) were involved. So, basically, as usual… It comes down to the WGA, after all. 🙂 Even with the ineligibility lists being what they are this year. Only the WGA can fully tell us how strong or not CODA and King Richard are. (We already know The Power of the Dog is vulnerable. But is anything strong enough to take it down? As for the PGA, that one will decide what the main alternative is, if any – and, should Belfast win it, somehow, it would mean it’s still in play. Despite its non-industry stats problems and its editing snub at the Oscars. It would still be stats-valid, according to the system, and in fact would then become the system’s favorite. And I would concur.)
Damn! I had to work all day and missed both awards ceremonies. I’ll have a look on YouTube for some speeches – and getting through all these comments…
Only the WGA can fully tell us how strong or not CODA and King Richard are. (We already know The Power of the Dog is vulnerable. But is anything strong enough to take it down?
I am going to go for King Richard for PGA. Though after CODA doing so well it’s tempting not to pick it too. Belfast looks like a miracle win now. Of course, we cannot discount TPOTD. It just doesn’t scream PGA or BP winner style wise. Unless it’s a No Country for Old Men year where the Academy goes for the art house flick. Would be funny actually with all this talk about Marvel films etc.. taking over the Oscars.
Just to add SOMETHING interesting to the way this is all going — doesn’t it feel like Best Actress is still up for grabs? And that Kristen Stewart or Penelope Cruz seem best positioned for something so perfectly surprising and MARVELOUS on Oscar night?
Oh Oscar people, let us dream of something fun and possible here! Or else we’re marching towards a steady stream of mediocrity.
Like I said below, I find it hard to take Stewart seriously after her loss tonight – even Mulligan was able to win here, in a more fractured race than this year’s. Stewart also has no other nominations for her movie. Cruz makes a lot more sense as an anti-stats dark horse to me.
Probably is just Chastain, of course… And I just remembered Globe hasn’t been enough on its own in lead, ever, so… I’ll probably go Chastain. Cruz would be in my top 3, though, at the very least. (Chances-wise – not seen the movie.)
True. OR she’s just the one most people are voting for (GG is still by far the smallest voting body of these three), so of course she would win most places. I still struggle to believe the theory that Stewart would have won in January – I just don’t think so many people would really change their vote and make that happen. You probably already know I don’t really subscribe to this “BFCA are trying to predict the Oscars” theory… 🙂 More likely, being pundits, they nominate the favorites because those are the ones they are most likely to actually see, and then they vote for the favorites because, well, that’s who most people are voting for. Take BFCA out of it and you still have LOADS of copy-pasting in the acting races, and not only, from GG to BAFTA to SAG to the Oscars. They’re no worse than those groups, really.
yes, because this is a fight between dueness (Chastain is, but we all know how cruel Oscar can be with that, if they’re not convinced with the actual film) vs. actual quality and challenge of the performance if they see all of them. They may skip Riva, Montenegro, Wallis, Castle-Hughes because thinking nomination was enough or because bored by subtitles (something I don’t really buy from pros, even studio executives will check out talent wherever it comes from), but in this year’s line up, I doubt anyone is going to skip any of the films, and if they do skip one… I think the mixed reception of Tammy Faye actually works against Chastain’s chances way more than Stewart’s (buzzed all year long) and Cruz (collaborating with Pedro again), which are must sees for anyone in the industry before actually voting.
I think after Critics Choice, this is Chastain’s year, at last. However, I wouldn’t be in shock by Colman, Cruz, Stewart or even Kidman winning. At the very least.
Yeah, of course, in a year where the front-runner (which is now Chastain) has so many arguments against her (not BAFTA top 2 in the nominations phase, movie with only make-up as its other nomination, bad reviews, etc.), almost any result is possible. I wouldn’t be shocked by any of them winning, either, but I would be pretty surprised if Colman or Stewart won, at this point, as opposed to one of the other three.
yes, and I insist on Cruz’s MASSIVE last minute support by peers, urging the acting branch to actually see Parallel Mothers, and that’s why I have the hunch, she’s number 2, over Colman. But it’s all really, really tight, and Chastain has the actual last-minute showing.
I’ve been saying for a long time that Chastain and Kidman winning does not really make sense. So I’m still expecting a surprise from one of the other 3.
Also in play now, the 100% all-time stat that says nothing other than The Power of the Dog, Belfast and West Side Story can win Best Picture: no movie has ever won in the Critics Choice era without also winning (or tying for) either picture, director or screenplay at the Golden Globes or Critics Choice. (At least 1/6.) I know, I know, Globes cancelled and so on… We’ll see. 🙂
Lol – I mean, maybe the BAFTA/GG/DGA/WGA stat can be beaten, since it’s not 100% an industry stat. So, I’d still think Belfast is the one that’s much closer… (Especially since West Side Story is stats-dead based on industry stats alone. I trust its case much less. Belfast remains valid, on that count. There’s also still King Richard, which is ruled out by non-industry stats but not by guild/Oscar stats. I’d say West Side Story is fourth, at best. If it wins the PGA, of course, maybe that changes.)
I do prefer it when they pick different winners. I don’t even mind if the guilds go the same way as long as GG, BFCA and BAFTA go different ways. But the acting is always boring as the just repeat all the time. Lead Actress is the only interesting one and that’s mainly thanks to BAFTA.
Agreed regarding Best Actress – it would appear that it’s Chastain’s to lose now and I’m ok with that. It’s a stunning performance in an otherwise Ho hum movie. I’m in the minority regarding Stewart in Spencer, but I won’t be surprised if she ends up taking the Oscar. For me, and I know I’m alone, she’s in 5th place for me.
Song of the moment for fans of Dune – Where is the Love, Black Eyed Peas.
Gimme wins taken away from them at every turn. Everywhere. There’s a line in the movie Thirteen Days about the Cuban Missile Crisis; “Sometimes there is only one right choice, and you thank God when it’s so clear.”
There’s a lot of fog in movie award-giving circles right now.
No, of course. But it’d have been a good start to coalesce behind a movie that got mid-80’s on RT and earned more domestically than the other 9 BP nominees combined.
R.I.P. The Power of the Dog. Its four wins here, including Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and Cinematography spell absolute defeat. This is the final death knell.
With Critics Choice going for West Side Story in editing, predicting Best Editing at the Oscars this year is going to be the biggest clusterf**k since 2012 and 2014.
It’s clearly not. They just think it’s too long. 🙁 (Even though that makes it all the more impressive in the editing department, for me, given that nothing at all felt unnecessary and there was no break in the flow whatsoever.)
The sound nomination stat is overrated. It will probably be tick, tick…BOOM! – or maybe it actually IS King Richard, somehow… Can still be The Power of the Dog, too. In any case, after losing all of these as the favorite, even if there’s a no-precursors editing winner, I don’t see it being Dune.
Surely since Dog hasn’t won any either it is just as bad? I dunno, I get that Dune has lost more by being nominated everywhere but maybe it has been 2nd everywhere and the fact that it is nominated means people at least liked it? I dunno, the whole thing is just giving me a headache!
I would actually love it to be Tick, Tick… BOOM. That would be so inspired since to me that was the standout aspect of that film (even more than Garfield) but I’m skeptical of it going to a film not nominated for picture. Maybe it is King Richard after all, I dunno.
It’s lost less times than Dune as a nominee (didn’t lose at BAFTA and we can’t be 100% sure it would have, with the whole of BAFTA voting, as opposed to just the branch, even if its two BAFTA’s tally does suggest it might have – but it’s not like No Time To Die crushed it there, either) and is the clear favorite for BP.
“but maybe it has been 2nd everywhere and the fact that it is nominated means people at least liked it? I dunno, the whole thing is just giving me a headache!”
The age-old question… 🙂 I’ve seen contenders snubbed for stuff win more often than contenders that got in everywhere but lost, I would say. Remember, Rylance and McDormand (the one that missed nothing in their categories in their seasons, in unclear races) did at least win BAFTA! So they’re not precedents for Dune winning. What is?
I mean at least techs there are tons of times in which the tech has been nominated everywhere, not won then won at Oscar. A particularly noteworthy example is fantastic beasts in costumes but I know that is a particularly odd one
Because, when this happens, usually quite a few of the voters will have some awareness of that movie being the favorite before voting, so their vote won’t just be a vote for something else, it will also be, to some extent, a vote against said favorite. A sign of disagreement with what they are, in a sense, being told/expected to do. So, then, each win is also a stronger clue than it is for something like Beasts or Ex Machina (which I do think missed VFXS, though).
Yeah, I looked into that one too. 🙂 Well pointed-out! I guess that’s true, there are some examples… I don’t think there are that many, though. I don’t remember that many more, in any case. (Not that my memory is anything to rely on.) But the thing is logically it’s hard for me to see a movie that was the favorite in the category at the start then losing all 3 precursors and still winning. These scenarios just don’t turn around. They always seem to lead to defeat. Is there a counter-example here? I don’t think Beasts was anywhere near being the favorite at any point.
Do let me know if you do! (I might as well, for the sake of trying to predict this category accurately, but it will depend on the time available to me.) I’m very curious about the findings.
Same as Dune‘s, I guess – none. Every editing winner since Traffic has won either BAFTA, ACE or Critics Choice. Traffic had no BFCA editing category available to win. It was nominated by both ACE and BAFTA.
The last 7 all won either ACE Drama or BAFTA. So it could be King Richard… (The stat against it is no editing winner since 1951 has not had either a directing nomination or at least one sound nomination – but King Richard, as opposed to almost all of those, only had a combined sound category it could be nominated in, so we can’t be absolutely sure it wouldn’t have gotten in with two categories in play.)
But Dog makes more sense to me. It has the BP strength. The stats favorite will probably be Dune, despite no wins. I’m not sure. But I don’t think I’d pick the stats favorite, in this case.
Meanwhile, you have the Hardens and Coburns of the world… Snubbed pretty much everywhere, but had some critics wins and both beat out people not snubbed anywhere in unclear races, if I’m not mistaken. I should look for more precedents, I go back to these two too often. 🙂 I need more examples. Braveheart in picture is one. Missed PGA, didn’t win any big BP prizes, but beat out a PGA winner nominated more places than it (Apollo 13) and even a GG+BFCA+BAFTA winner nominated everywhere in the category (Sense and Sensibility), due to other stats issues for the latter.
I guess TTB also has no BP nod – so Dog is maybe the favorite for me. I don’t think the BAFTA snub stat is a huge deal, it can be beaten in a category with no front-runner. But I hope I’m wrong and it’s indeed Dune. 🙂
Welp, I guess with those screenplay and cinematography wins, The Power of the Dog has no chance whatsoever. Looks like CODA and Belfast are going to tie for Best Picture.
I really like both performances so I am perfectly happy with Kotsur winning but it would’ve been nice if it could’ve been more of a race in the end so they could both get up and give speeches at different shows! There were 2 shows today, it would’ve been ideal if they could win one each!
Lots of advantages to Prime. I get “free music” with Prime and free shipping and I buy from AMZ all the time. Items usually are delivered within 2 days, sometimes the same day. Also I get Whole Foods discounts with Prime.
CCA are so shameless – if Kidman had won SAG they would’ve picked her. They are 100% predicting rather than picking who they want. In saying that, I am happy with Chastain over Kidman (though Stewart would easily be my pick)
So, then, total sweeps in the acting categories at TV awards… (“Spoiled” only by BAFTA’s jury in Best Actress. Which kind of sucks for predictions, because we have less clarity on whether Kidman – or somebody else – can actually challenge Chastain or not.)
I mean they did give Green Book the awards for Original Screenplay and Picture not too long after Nick Vallelonga’s racist tweets, so anything is possible.
I mean tell that to Parasite, Spotlight, Birdman, Crash, and Chicago. The Power of the Dog still has it due to it being the only major contender with an Editing nomination, but SAG has definitely helped turn the race around for some.
I never said they were. I’m saying that sometimes on rare occasions, SAG has been known to flip the switch (especially for Crash and Birdman). CODA would break so many stats if it won Best Picture that it makes it impossible for it to win (even though I’d LOVE it if it did). The Power of the Dog 100% has it in the bag. CODA, Belfast, and West Side Story never received an editing nomination and that stat has been ongoing for over four decades (with the exception of Birdman winning since that was a one take gimmick).
I admit a bit behind, I was assuming they had done voting already as it was postponed just a couple of days before it was to air in January. But heard still voting since so not sure if any wins tonight mean shifts or done before stuff like Chastain winning SAG. So am curious to how some might change races, including Best Actress which remains tight.
Fun fact most people missed- Benedict Cumberbatch is the Glenn Close of the BAFTAs.
not so fun if you’re Benedict! I wish Jane had chosen BAFTA to attend. I felt for Cumberbatch having to accept for her, having just lost the Best Actor award. He should have won for The Imitation Game. Such a great actor. So good in The Electrical Life of Louis Wain as well. Nice moment though when the film won BP, Benedict and Kodi ascending the podium together. Noticable solidarity.
Not exactly. Cumberbatch has been nominated twice for BAFTA film awards and lost twice, and he has been nominated 7 times for BAFTA TV awards and won once (for ”Patrick Melrose”). So Cumberbatch has a BAFTA. Glenn Close has 8 Academy Award nominations with no wins. But she does share something in common with Cumberbatch: They are both two-time losers for BAFTA film awards. … And if Kenneth Branagh leaves empty-handed at the upcoming Oscars, he’ll share something in common with Close: 8 nominations without a win.
What critics are these? NY, LA, SF, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Southeastern, Florida, Chicago, Utah, Dallas-Ft. Worth, North Carolina, Houston, Austin, Oklahoma, Seattle, North Dakota, Iowa Central Ohio, New Mexico, London, Music City, Boston Online, NY Online and whatever/wherever the Online Film Critics Society is all gave Smit-McPhee best supporting actor. Are they not a part of some incredibly awful presentation called the Critics Choice Awards?!
Critics’ Choice is mainly TV and internet critics (I think Sasha is a member). Organizations like NYFCC are mostly critics from newspapers and magazines.
Ha. There are no true criteria to be part of this so-called “Critics” Group. They are mostly Oscar pundits. They are no better/worse than the Golden Globes members. Sasha is a member, and whatever Sasha is, she isn’t a film critic.
At the end of the day, this is a $-making TV show capitalizing on the Oscars.
If you ask me, there are way too many critics groups. Now, seemingly each city, region and state has one. Even though critics are supposed opinionated individuals, they seem to vote like sheep at awards season. It’s like a self-congratulatory exercise in who can predict or influence the Oscars. It becomes an echo chamber of lazy thinking. And sadder still, it’s even setting the table for the industry and guild prizes.
Campion = cringe
Good on you BAFTA awarding the great Joanna Scanlan. A simply superb performance and a talented woman. Overnight success at 60! For those unacquainted with her, check out ‘Pin Cushion’ another award worthy performance.
After Love blew me away. Films like this only come by every few years.
Editing category is still a horse Race between west side story>king Richard>dune
King richard>no time to die>dune
No Time to Die isn’t nominated either
Then it’s king Richard >tick tick boom or power of the dog
Explains Campion’s most stupid comment about Williams sisters. She’s obviously very insecure about Dog’s winning prospect which now leads to late in the game victim card playing. First her rebuttal to Elliott’s 2-3 weeks old comments and now this WTF speech. Her Director win is secured but she wants more and the industry supposedly sin’t too keen on her movie. hence ramping up “muh opression” rhetoric.
The Williams sisters appeared to enjoy her off-the-cuff comment. The anti-Campion camp were out in full force on Film Twitter like wolves looking for any remote opportunity to dismantle her and her film, I see. Whatever. The spirit of Harvey Weinstein is very much alive.
that doesn’t change the fact that she is insecure hence suddenly ramping up the victim card. CODA industry buzz must be very strong. Perhaps not strong enough to pull an upset but good enough to make her reach for muh opression men baaad rhetoric.
She was quirky and spontaneous, looked tipsy, threw all caution to the wind, and seemed to just say anything that came to her mind. If that’s insecure to you and playing the victim card, so be it. Who cares. Watch the video. If you think that’s a scheming calculated person playing victim to win Oscars (as if she needed to by this point), that’s on you, and the typically outraged world of social media. People can’t seem to tell the difference between a questionable joke and genuine nastiness. Like Jimmy Kimmel said about Billy Crystal, Billy would never have been able to survive this trigger-happy culture of horrifying outrage and hypocrisy if he were doing all the characters he did on SNL today.
My guess is the Williams sisters, even though they seemed genuinely amused and entertained by her joke in the video clip, probably won’t speak up to defend her if this brings The Power of the Dog down a few notches in the totem pole of most likely Best Picture Oscar winners, and elevate King Richard’s own prospects.
Yes she is scheming because she wants to win more than one big award and only one is guaranteed. She could have made a speech without muh victimhood/please have sympathy. She’s the frontrunner, act like one (translation: don’t kvetch).
Don’t interpret a whole person’s character by just some random speech.
the weak whine. She’s been whining for 2 days now except that one was met with yas Kweening and the other with pitchforks. Either way, whining is unbecoming of the frontrunner.
I didn’t it see as whining. I thought it was bold and funny and well set-up. I wasn’t sure where she was going with all of the tennis talk and the payoff was surprising. It got a rousing response in the room including from the sisters. So I don’t know what backlash you’re talking about.
One the one hand, people say that it was risky and might hurt her chance. And you’re saying that she’s being manipulative and scheming to win the awards.
Both can’t be true.
nothing will hurt her chance to win Director but wants Picture too at least. Script is also in play and both are threatened by the same warm likable movie with a social justice cause. So yes, it is a manipulation.
Every BP contender wants to win the BP. Everyone gets on stage and acts whatever they need to propel that Oscar win.
Maybe she was inspired by Michael Keaton’s speech when he spoke about “fake humility” in the air.
“Everyone gets on stage and acts whatever they need to propel that Oscar win.”
That’s exactly what she did. So we finally agree.
Why single her out then as being manipulative and scheming? Because she didn’t act “lady-like”?
no because it happened last night. did I miss someone else? who do you think should be singled out?
No one really cares who you single out, Harvey. You all but single out yourself with your own words. it’s what self-own means.
She issued an apology so that’s admitting that she blew it. You are in minority.
She issued an apology because she had class and humility. 2 things you won’t ever understand.
if she had class she wouldn’t cry about muh opression to begin with.
That’s like telling Donald Trump not to be Donald Trump. Why bother. He knows exactly what he’s doing. It’s boring.
If Director frontrunners need to “act” to win Oscars like they do in America, then f** the Oscars. Maybe you’re right, Oscar winners always need to know what to say, how to say it, calculate every word they say, peddle sob stories while they’re at it, that’s how you win. Worked for Julia Roberts and Jennifer Lawrence and looks like it’s going to work for Will Smith.
dude, her speech was calculated. the part about having it tough because of men was 100% calculation. It just seems that she went off the script a bit with Serena and Venus which backfired.
You are butthurt that her attempt at playing a feminist victim backfired badly. Guess what? If she didn’t, she wouldn’t be dragged now. End of.
I’m butthurt at people dying in Ukraine. This is all just an entertaining distraction. Get a grip.
no you get a grip. your idol torpedo’d herself with a dumb comment out of desperation to get more votes and you are seething. It’s all on her. There.
nah. it’s on you. what you say is a reflection of yourself. ironic, isn’t it? there.
nope. look at the reactions. it didn’t work. so that’s that.
That’s what Trumplicons say too. Look at how many supporters he has! He must be right! Yawn.
So Black Twitter, which is seething more than anyone over it, is Trumplicons? You learn something new every day.
West Side Story, not nominated.
Looks to me like Dune vs. KR vs. TTB for Editing. Honestly, I don’t see TPOTD upsetting here and especially DLU.
Congratulations to Will Smith, Troy Kotsur, Jessica Chastain & Ariana DeBose which will carry over to the Oscars! Congrats Dog even though I didn’t think it was The Best Picture but Jane Campion WAS Best Director.
Film Editing is interesting. Dune was the heavy favorite but it lost ACE Eddie to King Richard, BAFTA to No Time To Die and CC to West Side Story………
Jessica Chastain has always been in stuff that I’m unsure of when it comes out but end up liking later in the awards season.
Chastain should’ve won for zero dark thirty!
No. her character was a blank slate. No one was going to vote for that frozen tilapia when they had more likable and/or complex options elsewhere.
Yes, they went for one-dimensional sassy girl instead. Apparently they like their Oscar winning girls sassy. The sassier, the better.
sassy girl had perosnality. ZDT one had none. One note plot forwarder. Everyone with half brain could have seen she was not going to win for that flatness.
Of course everyone with half a brain would know you speak for everyone with half a brain. My personal favorite was Emmanuelle Riva. Sassy girl can go fly kite with her Oscar in my opinion. Riva is the real deal.
See, even you didn’t think frozen tilapia was the best.
Better than one dimensional sassy girl.
but not the best aka should have won. Everyone knows that Riva should have Hopkins her win.
I think to The Tree of Life, Zero Dark Thirty, Molly’s Game and A most Dangeous year and to the future cinephile Kids who will know that another great actress won the Oscar for another s**tty movie
Make up Oscars given to performances in s**tty movies are unfortunately still very common. Though no one put the gun to her head since she produced this Oscar Bait 101 s***. Actors know what they are doing. It’s fans who hate makeup Oscars while actors only want the oscar doesn’t matter for what.
Top 5 things i want to see at the oscars(just for fun)
1. Flee upsets summer of soul in documentary feature
2. Will smith does his victory dance
3. Belfast wins lucky 7 including best picture
4. Robin robin wins animated short film
5. Tributes to Sidney Poitier, Ivan reitman and william hurt
Finally Belfast get some wins with 3. Its the most personal film i ever watched.
This critic group that handed out the awards was known as the broadcast film critics association now its critics choice
BFCA is the name of the group, Critics’ Choice is the name of the award.
The BFCA changed its name to the Critics Choice Association in 2019.
OK, let’s play – not seriously!!! – at this. (keep it fun)
TOP 5 THINGS THAT I WOULD LOVE TO SEE HAPPEN AT THE OSCARS (just for the sake of it)
1) The Power of the Dog wins 12 Oscars, thanks to a tie in Supporting Actor.
2) Flee takes its 3 nominations
3) Don’t Look Up takes Picture, Original and Film Editing
4) Parallel Mothers wins both
5) both leads and supporting winners being real life couples.
1. Anyone but Will Smith
2. Coda sweep it’s 3 Oscars
3. Anyone but KStew
4. Spielberg (was I the only one cringing at Campions speech?)
5. Lin finally completing his EGOT
#1
I second what Sammy said. Because to me that´s the only truly exceptional film in this years lineup.
I, too, second (and, like you, upvoted) what Sammy said. DMC for all 4 wins, with no hesitation from me.
But I think that from the list of nominees, the descriptor “exceptional” should also be applied to WSS. I can’t think of anyone besides Spielberg who could have, in a musical, mixed exhilaration with grit so effectively.
What’s also exceptional this year but not on the list, where it should be: Passing.
I´m a bit mixed about WSS because I felt it was too oldschool and conventional to grab my interest. Spielberg should have gone much further in adapting the material, for instance transferring the plot in our present time. The whole scenery looked so artificial and fake to me. Passing was not my cup of tea either, it looked too polished and neat. But the acting in both films is very good.
Fair enough disagreement.
1) Best Picture – West Side Story
2) Best Director – Hamaguchi
3) Best Actor – Garfield
4) Best Actress – Cruz
5) Best Adapted Screenplay – Hamaguchi, Oe
Anyone else think Campion didn’t hand CODA Best Picture with her martyrdom comments? Thanks Jane!
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LOL no. It’s all noise and will be forgotten about by tomorrow. And if it WAS to resonate, wouldn’t the film that benefits most be King Richard?
Voters don’t vote out of spite, they vote out of love. Nobody LOVES King Richard, most people certainly LIKE it a lot. People LOVE CODA.
Thank you Critics Choice for making SENSE and awarding:
Film Editing: West Side Story (a no-brainer pick, absolutely amazing)
Squid Game (x2), What If?, Bo Burham’s Inside and The Mitchells vs. the Machines, a poker of absolutely great picks as well.
And well, most of the winners can already write their Oscar acceptance speeches… this gives The Power of the Dog now the chance to win 3-4 at the very least…
Locked: Picture, Director
Looking safe or likely: Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography
Still possible: Supporting Actor, Kodi Smit-McPhee (but Plemmons’ nomination has damaged his chances tremendously, along with Kotsur’s surge)
At this point I’d say The Power of the Dog takes Picture AND Director, and one of those three, Adapted, Cinematography or Supporting Actor. Score could surprise as well, but it looks now as a 3 Oscar, Best Picture winner.
Locked:
Picture, Director, all 4 Actors. I know you are still hoping for Cruz surprise but CC dumped KStew for safe pick Chastain, which I called ever since she won SAG, so that is locked loaded sealed and delivered. There will be no last minute shock.
I guess there’s wiggle room in Scripts and Editing but that’s about it.
“I know you are still hoping for Cruz surprise”. Only NOW it would be a surprise. Before this, the race was still wide open, with strong narratives for all 5… now, anyone not named Chastain would be a relative surprise, but not a shocker.
I concede that Chastain is the weakest frontrunner of all acting categories. Smith and DuBose swept. Kotsur locked 2 industry awards (SAG + BAFTA). Chastain only has SAG but, while I hate to bring up an iffy measurement of support such as BAFTA Longlist, Chastain made that unlike Cruz and Stewart. So she can expect some British support too.
at core it’s all between three factors
1) Dueness in that sense… 1) Chastain 2) Stewart 3) Cruz 4) Kidman 5) Colman
2) Passion about the performance/film… 1) Cruz 2) Colman 3) Stewart 4) Chastain 5) Kidman, if you ask me about what I perceived in the last months.
3) Uniqueness – separation from the rest of the contenders + originality – of the performance… then we would have 1) Cruz 2) Colman 3) Chastain 4) Stewart 5) Kidman, also my perception.
I still think, anyone can win. But I am thinking Chastain, and if anyone upsets, I am thinking Cruz is the likeliest.
well, Cruz makes sense as a passion upset more than lets say Kidman in a similar role/performance (biopic, makeup) to Chastain. Kidman and Chastain are basically fighting for the same middlebrow voters though I guess Kidman can at least count on Aussie Block, while Chastain is seen as more transformative and should have more domestic support.
That said, Cruz didn’t show up anywhere with precursors except AACTA and she even missed BAFTA loglist. Moreover, she is the only nominee from her movie. Everyone else except Stewart has some other nomination that shows wider support (eg. Chastain +Hair&Makeup, Kidman + Bardem + Simmonds, Colman + Buckley + Gyllenhaal). So, like CODA, she would have to break several stats to pull off an upset. Not impossible but very unlikely.
Wrong.
“That said, Cruz didn’t show up anywhere with precursors except AACTA and she even missed BAFTA loglist. Moreover, she is the only nominee from her movie”
Cruz won LAFCA and NSFC to add to her Volpi Cup win in Venice Film Festival, over Stewart. That assures that it was all the alarm signals that she could get snubbed, what provoked the wave of calls urging AMPAS members to see the film.
Plus, Parallel Mothers is also nominated for Original Score (Alberto Iglesias’ 4th nomination, by the way), in addition to its Golden Globes nominations for Score and Foreign Film. (What is more, that didn’t happen with “Volver”, and she probably only lost the Oscar back then, because she was facing an overdue and Best Picture nominated Helen Mirren for “The Queen”)
OK, missed Score. That makes KStew the only one that has no other noms from her movie.
by the way, I really hope it wins Score as well. Not only Iglesias is overdue – he’s fantastic – but also this score, I found engaging
I think it’s Dune’s to lose and while I’m a fan of the movie the score didn’t quite move me. I prefer Children of Dune score.
”The Mitchells vs. the Machines” just won big at the Annie Awards, and now at Critics Choice. Is it the new front-runner for Animated Film at the Oscars (and not ”Encanto”)? … I keep hoping that ”Flee” will surprise and win Animated Film, as it has at L.A. Film Critics. A shame. Its theme about escaping refugees is even more topical and timely in the wake of Ukraine. Historically, ”Flee” is up for 3 Oscars, but I suspect it’ll go home empty-handed, losing Animated (to ”The Mitchells” or ”Encanto”), International Flim (to ”Drive My Car”) and Documentary (to ”Summer of Soul”).
They will namecheck Pixar, sadly.
The Pixar film is good but won’t win. They will namecheck Disney (which I haven’t seen but is super popular so good for them.)
My bad I thought that LMM movie was Pixar. yes, Disney.
It is close. Encanto won the Bafta.
i LOVED that ”Belfast” won 3 prizes: Original Screenplay, Best Young Actor/Actress and Best Ensemble. Jude Hill, 11, was adorable receiving his award from last year’s winner, Alan Kim, 9, from ”Minari.” Jamie Dornan was so charming accepting the ensemble prize for ”Belfast” when he remarked that the win ”was not expected and so incredible to receive this.” He then quipped, ”Critics are usually not very nice to me, so this was a change.” I also enjoyed the later comic bit Dornan did with Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumulo, his co-stars from ”Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar,” which was a Critics Choice nominee for Best Comedy. Wiig and Mumolo acted as if they weren’t aware Dornan was in a film called ”Belfast,” and confused it with a film about SlimFast.
And bravo to Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn for their surprise Critics Choice win for brilliantly editing ”West Side Story.” I’m still astonished they weren’t nominated for an Oscar, and I continue to be confused about why it wasn’t up for an Eddie. (Was it submitted in the Drama catregory instead? It should’ve been in the same category as ”tick … tick … BOOM!,” another musical.)
I’ve experienced some DeJa’Vu after seeing the BFCA. TPOTD won the same 4 awards as Nomadland did last year. And the latter only picked up 3 at the Oscars: Picture, Directing, and Actress. Although both movies are entirely different from one another, it makes me wonder how many TPOTD is gonna take home. It’s definitely NOT gonna be a sweeper (i.e.: Gravity, TLOTR: TROTK, Slumdog Millionaire). It could yet be another one of those Best Pictures that only picks up 3, maybe 4 wins at best. That seems to be the new norm for Oscars. However, I do see Dune sweeping the below-the-line categories. I know it can’t win Picture or Adapted Screenplay. The latter may go to CODA since it got the BAFTA in a surprising twist over DMC, Dune, TLD and TPOTD.
Interestingly, Dune won Cinematography at BAFTA where, like the Oscars, was criminally snubbed for Directing too. So MAYBE the same thing could happen for Dune at the Oscars. The last Best Picture nominee to win Cinematography without a Best Directing nod was Inception. Both sci-fi movies. Both Nolan and Villeneuve robbed. Could we be experiencing some DeJa’Vu come Oscar night?
For Dune’s chances, its Oscar tally could wind up being 4, 5, maybe even more. We just witnessed the love it got at the BAFTAs with its 5 victories. Whatever the tally it winds up winning at the Oscars, it looks like Dune could easily pick up more statuettes than TPOTD could.
Speaking of which, the final test that TPOTD has to conquer is that preferential voting system in which the BAFTAs, BFCAs, and the GGs don’t have. It differentiates from your standard voting system. And last year’s Nomadland conquered all of that with flying colors.
I’m sad. Will Smith is not that great an actor to my account but that’s ok. Benedict Cumberbatch will prove his worth in the long run – like Gregory Peck not getting it for Moby Dick BUT for ATTICUS Finch.
Gregory Peck’s greatest role is as Atticus Finch so, in that regard, yes I hope Benedict Cumberbatch wins for his best performance and not some belabored, over-thought masculine nonsense.
Thanks for your opinion but if u have every watched Moby Dick , it’s Gregory Pecks finest performance.
So far we have three different Adapted Screenplay winners.
Scripter – The Lost Daughter
BAFTA – CODA
BFCA – Dog
Hopefully WGA will give it to Dune. Arrival did win there after all.
And the Oscars will give it to Drive My Car.
The Lost Daughter also got Indie Spirit, which is more of an industry prize than Scripter.
You just have to pay to be able to vote for Spirit. Not an industry. Furthermore, most of the contenders were not eligible. Can’t include Spirits as a gauge.
True, but optics and momentum…you know.
Dune will win for Part II, if it delivers. Remember, Peter Jackson was nominated for the 1st LotR film as writer, was passed for the 2nd (!!! I thought it was the best written of the 3!!!) and won finally for the last one.
They will hold to see the whole “picture” before showering Dune with above the line Oscars.
Remember, LotR as a triptic, holds the Oscar record for wins in most categories… 12… the 11 that Return of the King won, plus Cinematography for Fellowship of the Ring. It earned 17 Oscar wins (all time record for a franchise, as well?)
If anyone upsets Campion at adapted, as usual with Oscar, would be an actor turned writer, so The Lost Daughter might win.
It should be said that Roma is the only real precedent for The Power of the Dog losing at the PGA. Although it is a pretty good one, for many reasons. (Netflix, big critical darling, “boring” label – with which most will disagree around here, when it comes to Dog, but that was also the case for Roma, yet plenty of people clearly did find it to be boring -, also a DGA-only winner among the major guilds except PGA, also a nominations leader, even if only a co-leader, also a movie snubbed for ensemble at SAG, even if it also had zero acting nominations there.) It was the true Globe winner (it won directing and foreign and wasn’t eligible in drama picture to take down the horribly stats-flawed Bohemian Rhapsody, which I think it’s hard to argue it wouldn’t have, had it been eligible) and won the Critics Choice BP, BAFTA Best Film and the DGA. No other movie that has ever won those three (there are 10 in total) has failed to also win the PGA.
I don’t know. I think a lot of people underestimated how popular and likeable Bohemian Rhapsody was to so many people that season. A Star Is Born was there, ripe for the taking, but didn’t wrestle BP drama from BR.
Not sure if Roma would automatically take it from BR had it been in Drama BP lineup.
We all saw how much “love” there was for A Star is Born that awards season… 🙂 Did it even win anything other than song anywhere?! I think that drama category was one where they just weren’t passionate about anything and it was a very close vote and that’s why Bohemian Rhapsody could squeak out a win, as weak as it was. Their favorites were pretty clearly Green Book and Roma. I’m not saying it’s 100%, of course, but to me it’s hard to buy the arguments that BR was ahead of Roma at those Globes.
The point is BR win was very surprising (shocking even), even without Roma being there. A Star Is Born was more populous than Roma. It got 5 nods, Roma 3. BR, 2.
Since it’s so surprising, we don’t really know how far the surprise it could have been. Could it win by a wide margin (within the 100 votes)? It won 4 (out of 5) Oscars! That movie was very very popular.
Sure, GG would probably want to predict/influence the Oscars by going for Roma as BP drama, but voters do go bonkers when a fever is infecting them. And BR was that year’s fever.
“Could it win by a wide margin (within the 100 votes)? It won 4 (out of 5) Oscars! That movie was very very popular.”
Yeah, but it still didn’t win picture, nor did it win it anywhere else that season. Meanwhile, Roma won it most places… (So, in a sense, saying it could have beaten Roma at the Globes is like saying CODA can win BP at the Oscars this year, also with no other BP wins anywhere, just because it’s clearly very popular and winning a lot in its other categories where it’s nominated, which, as with BR, are very few.)
True, there are a lot fewer GG voters than Oscar voters. Clearly, it might have won. The Globes are less predictable, of course. I’m just saying it’s not likely at all, based on the evidence.
I mean, Belfast, which nobody thinks is doing well right now (or that there’s any great passion for it – but maybe the PGA will prove that wrong, still, since at least there are encouraging signs from the BFCA), is even doing way, way better than A Star is Born was.
Thoughts post BAFTA and CC:
Picture – The Power of the Dog, I guess??? Lets see what PGA does; BIG hurdle. TPOTD and Belfast impressed at CC.
Director – Campion. But I don’t think her iffy CC speech did her any favors.
Actor – Smith. Done.
Actress – Chastain ahead of Kidman and Colman. Stewart needed the CC win (and an onstage moment) to give her a leg up. If Chastain wins, I don’t think it will be a runaway victory. The percentages will likely be splicey dicey.
S. Actor – Kotsur. Done.
S. Actress – DeBose. I think WSS admirers will primarily coalesce votes here.
Orig. Screenplay – leaning Belfast because AMPAS liked it a lot more than Licorice Pizza.
Adapted Screenplay – Sheesh. Gonna go CODA, with The Lost Daughter (Gyllenhaal love) as a spoiler. I’m just not going TPOTD anymore, here.
Editing – Dune, mostly because of the corresponding Sound nom. But could be King Richard (ACE winner) or Tick, Tick … BOOM! a la Dragon Tattoo all those years ago. West Side Story deserves the win that it got at CC; a shame it wasn’t recognized by AMPAS.
Cinematography – Dune. I think Greg Fraser admiration (also for The Batman) puts him slightly over the top of TPOTD.
Production Design – Dune. Nightmare Alley (AMPAS loves Del Toro’s art direction aesthetic) or West Side Story (a la Lincoln) threatening here.
Costumes – Cruella. Done.
Hair/Make-Up – The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Picking up steam. Chastain and this category are helping each other out.
Sound – Dune. West Side Story feels like the runner-up, to me.
FX – Dune. Done.
Score – Dune. Zimmer has had a good day.
Song – No Time to Die. Encanto close on its heels.
Animated – Encanto. I think its 3 noms (+ popularity right now) help it get a win over the Mitchells late surge.
Doc – Summer of Soul. Done.
International – Drive My Car. Done.
That leaves TPOTD with 2. Belfast with 1. Coda with 2. Dune with 6.
That all feels odd, to me. I can see Belfast taking Best Picture to make it 2. CODA winning all 3 of its noms including Best Picture would be something; especially since noms for it for directing, editing and cinematography were likely far down the tally. So, to that, I have a hard time seeing it win the big award. Time will tell! 🙂
The Critics Choice NEVER FAILED to predict the Oscars! It seems like they exist solely for that. The only surprising thing they didn’t do this year was to pencil in Spider-man No Way Home among their Best Picture nominees.
Sucks that Cage isn’t getting awards for Pig. It proved that he can do subtle and is his best performance in decades.
Best Actor performance this season! Cruz is a close second.
Next year….can you hang in there till then? The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent. Pig was just too niche, too far off the grid and really didn’t make sense.
Cage was the best actor of 2021 and quite honestly Alex Wolff should be earning his SECOND Oscar nomination after Hereditary.
All SAG ensemble + acting winners that also won the BAFTA and/or WGA for screenplay:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – also two SAG and BAFTA acting wins, also a Globe screenplay win (ineligible at WGA)
The King’s Speech – also 1 SAG acting win and 3 BAFTA acting wins, won screenplay at the Critics Choice (ineligible at WGA)
Traffic – 1 SAG+BAFTA acting win, won screenplay at Critics Choice, Globes and WGA
No Country for Old Men – also 1 SAG+BAFTA acting win, won screenplay at the Globes and WGA
American Beauty – also 2 SAG+BAFTA acting wins, won screenplay at Critics Choice, Globes and WGA
Shakespeare in Love – also 1 SAG acting win and 2 BAFTA acting wins, won screenplay at Critics Choice, Globes and WGA
So, a good conversion rate, but, as usual, the snubs make all the difference – the 4/6 that won Best Picture at the Oscars had no major industry snubs whatsoever, while the 2 that lost each had at least one. So, overall, I’d say precedents still aren’t looking good for CODA. So far, it’s just a much weaker statistically (but I guess much more beloved, nonetheless) Three Billboards. It remains to be seen which will count more, the stats evidence or the “buzz”. I probably don’t need to restate which of the two has usually/always prevailed thus far in such situations… (This, pending a potential PGA win – which I don’t see happening, after it failed to win more than one award at Critics Choice, out of four nominations, at least three of which it could have won. But, should it somehow win that, it would at least muddy the waters just a tiny bit, since the two above that lost the Oscar didn’t win the PGA. Traffic wasn’t even nominated.)
Other BAFTA screenplay winners that won neither the Globe, nor the Critics Choice in the same category, and are close enough in strength to CODA to constitute precedents:
(Preferential era-only – not 100% sure when BAFTA changed its voting procedures in all categories to resemble the one used by AMPAS… It was around 2011, no?)
Parasite – no SAG/BAFTA acting nominations or wins, but a SAG ensemble win
The Theory of Everything – 1 BAFTA+SAG acting win (but no ensemble win)
American Hustle – 1 BAFTA acting win (no SAG acting wins) and SAG ensemble win
Silver Linings Playbook – 1 SAG acting win (no BAFTA acting wins) but no ensemble win
The Artist – 1 BAFTA+SAG acting win (but no ensemble win)
I would say these are all close enough (all with at least one win at BAFTA/SAG and the ensemble nomination), since all of them were doing much better than CODA on the nominations front. (The Theory of Everything is the only one that wasn’t doing much, much better, but BAFTA Best Film nomination, 5 Oscar nods… Still clearly stronger.) And they have a conversion rate of 2/5, and the only one that’s even kinda’ close in overall strength to CODA, as discussed, didn’t win Best Picture. So, again, not looking very good.
I do like that CODA and King Richard are managing to at least keep things interesting…
“Interesting” is an interesting word. 🙂
In terms of the stats puzzle (and, therefore, the question of what should really be predicted), this is still interesting. Only if Dog wins the PGA will it no longer be that… 🙂 Maybe you think it’s locked to win the PGA. I don’t.
I don’t think it’s locked, but I think it’s going to happen. 😉
The stats puzzle may be interesting at this point, but the Best Picture race itself is more disappointing. I find half the nominees negligible, and of the other half the “frontrunner” is my number three or four choice.
Not. A. Split. Year.
The two leads from Heavenly Creatures win CC television awards on the same night.
Really? Wow! That’s a nice touch.
Yep, Kate Winslet and Melanie Lynskey co-starred in that film in 1994.
Such a brilliant haunting film.
Eight possible wins for Dune tonight, and they can only scrape 3. But this is merely a preview of 2024 when some arthouse stuff denies Dune part 2 of its just reward even if they get 100% on RT, 90 on MC. There needs to be an indepth article on sci-fi bias over the years, where it started and why it persists to this second.
Dune got 90 on MC? What MC are you talking about?
By the way, Dune still has a chance to win fan favorite of the year Oscar. You can vote for it 20 times every day for the rest of the month. See, there’s always a silver lining. Don’t be so blue.
I’m saying if Dune 2 gets a 90 on MC or 100 on RT I was speculating ahead to 2024. Thought I made that clear.
DAWWWWG
Ok I can accept the acting losses. But AMPAS give me these 4. These 4
If Campion and Wagner can both win at least an Oscar each for this I’ll be happy 🙂
BAFTA underperformance aside, POTD did what it needed to do this weekend in sweeping DGA, BAFTA, and CC just ahead of the PGA and final Oscar voting.
But yes, cosigned, give or take editing as well.
A big night for the acclaimed feature-length digital video.
Jane Campion is quirky in her older age. Maybe she’s a bit tipsy?
I truly disliked both of her speeches. Came off as very much the opposite of humble, to me. (Would be a bit more understandable if she was under the influence, but even then, I don’t know… very unlikable, at least for my tastes.) Maybe her Oscar speech(es) will be better. I’ve never seen her speaking before and this was not a good first impression.
It was irreverent. Fine for a setting like CC where people were eating and drinking.
Taika was also a bit off. Maybe it’s the Kiwi thing. I didn’t mind and found it a bit refreshing. A bit like I’m old and I don’t give an eff.
Also, by the way, is that the reason she chose to attend the Critics Choice Awards instead of BAFTA? Her more informal style? Or did she just think her movie had better chances there? (Netflix might have had a say in the decision too, I guess.) Not what I would have expected, in any case.
I think it’s because she attended the DGA, which was in L.A. She probably didn’t want to take a red-eye to be at BAFTA. She’s no spring chicken.
Ah, that explains it – thanks!
She’s always been quirky! I love her. I love seeing Taika (as a presenter), Lynskey and her up on stage tonight exuding so many kiwi-isms while all being such impressive people. There aren’t that many of us out showing off our art and way of being on the global stage (I feel like we only get a few at any given time) so it does make me really proud seeing it.
I loved her comment “But I have to play with the men!”
Very bold!
She is a bold lady and that’s why she’s got so far.
She’s just an amazing person! She was making similar comments around the time of the piano and earlier. She’s actually done so much for female representation in the film industry. May she never stop!
Yeah, but under the context and speaking to the William Sisters there. It was gold.
It was bold and some may take it as being shady but it was said with so much love for the 2 of them!
Nah. Only silly people would take that as a shade. It was humorous and very well set up. And the sisters loved it!
“She’s just an amazing person!”
I hope you’re right and it was just some weirdness, but the opposite of that came across to me in her appearances tonight. 🙁
This is 2009 all over again; Villeneuve as Cameron and Campion as Bigelow. And the results are just as wrong now as they were then.
Even Cameron admitted Bigelow had the better film and deserved to win.
He was being diplomatic, IMO.
The Hunger Games homage continues to exercise mass osmosis with critics…TV is not that hard up, quality-wise, to turn to a South Korean import to hand key awards to.
You imply that South Korean tv – especially South Korean tv you haven’t watched and will never make an effort to – isnt of a high enough caliber to win awards
The Hunger Games homage continues to exercise mass osmosis with critics. Fuckin’ a.
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You were saying, @disqus_OxhcUfdWuW:disqus ?
This show did not deserve to go home empty-handed… (Was talking about Yellowjackets.)
Yes! Melanie!…
Yes!!! Dog in cinematography!! go Ari !!
And the correct adapted winner
Headscratcher.
Relieved to see Critics Choice come through for Power of the Dog.
Wow, editing truly is all over the place this year!… And, there you go: Belfast DID win screenplay here! I knew it must have a chance. So at least it’s stats-valid for the PGA win in that way… Also, CODA didn’t repeat, so maybe there’s a chance it doesn’t win at WGA, at least. (Which it needs, according to what I’m looking at on breaks. Even with a PGA win and even modifying the system so that it’s valid at all – which does seem to be a bit easier than I had anticipated, even if there does appear to be just one way to do it. But it requires a single change which isn’t necessarily illogical/unjustified. More on that later.)
LOL so good to have this comic relief around here.
If you don’t like my “system” I can make a few tweaks, there’s plenty more where that came from.
Best Editing- West Side Story
Take that Oscar’s.
Michael Kahn is the GOAT.
Awarding the same people all the time gets tired. Let’s some others get their moment in the sunshine. Anyway, he and Spielberg stand a better chance next year.
So they announced a slew of movie awards.
Original Screenplay – Belfast
Adapted – Dog
Cinematography – Dog
Production Design – Dune
Editing – West Side Story
There are times to spread the wealth, CC’s, and other times to go all the fuck in. You’re not doing the latter by giving POTD Adapted Screenplay + Cinematography and WSS Editing.
They have interesting nominees (in TV at least), but the winners are always so friggin’ lemming!
Golden Reel Motion Picture Sound Editors movie winners: Dune, WSS, Nightmare Alley.
https: // deadline. com /2022 /03 / golden-reel-awards-2022-winners-list-dune-succession-the-witcher-nightmare-alley-1234976251/
So bad that Benedict didnt get any love from any televised awards. Even from BAFTA! See you next time Benedict!
Billy Crystal is truly one of the greats…
He’s legendary
And one of my absolute favorites.
SAG held the power. They were the first televised show. And Smith, Chastain, Kotsur, DeBose all gave good speeches – which helped them.
I think I’ve finally become like Ricky Gervais. I kinda hate these people.
Will Smith chose the CC over the BAFTAS???? Deduct Oscar votes for that
Many Americans do that when they’re up against Brit in strong film and strong performance. I think he probably thought Cumberbatch was going to win and he had a better chance at the BFCA. He’s not wrong as BAFTA don’t tend to go for black filmmakers, generally.
What about Denzel and Morgan Freeman??? Never mind.
Yes, those legends were snubbed by BAFTA. Weirdest thing ever.
Was he at the DGAs?
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Chastain. They are so predictable.
That moment when you realize you were rooting for your least favorite performances in Best Actress just to keep the Oscar race interesting.
That’s a wrap! Thank God we don’t have to hear from the navel-gazing critics for another year! Be gone, pestilence!
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No surprise with Supporting categories and figure Smith Best Actor. It’s Best Actress I’m intrigued by more to see if Chastain continues momentum, Kidman gets it or Stewart throws a spoiler into things.
If Stewart wins it, then it’s definitely a race.
It’s trickier this year given BAFTA no help with none of the women there up for Oscar.
The Oscars need to have a “young star” award. HOW old is Rachel Zegler? Is she a teenager? What’s she doing as a Young star?
I agree. A lot of young star tend to get overlooked because if their age. That might be one of the reasons Kodi isn’t winning.
The Oscars needs another category like it needs a hole in a head.
But a lot of young stats don’t win because if their age. And it works well at BAFTA. Plus it introduces a new star to the world.
Yeah, ABC won’t even let them completely show one-third of the categories they DO have.
kodi should be winning best supporting actor
When do they actually giving out awards?
Watching the Red Carpet….I want to be Halle Berry.
Once again, I don’t know over half these people. What have they done besides streaming? 🙂
Even though ‘The Eyes Of Tammy Faye’ was critically lambasted Jessica Chastain still won beating critics darling Kristen Stewart. That should seal the deal for Best Actress. From here would it be a BIG upset if Chastain were to lose? Are all the four acting categories now locked for the Oscar like 2017?
Critics are not good precursors. Sometimes they overlap, sometimes they don’t. Until CC (which is basically lets see what precursors say and try to predict Oscars rather than voting for what/who they think is best), critics awards largely went to Kodi and Cumberbatch with Cruz actually scoring more important wins than KStew. But yes, they weren’t in Chastain tank. I don’t remember who was their support actress push. DeBose and someone else. Campion and Dog swept but DMC picked up a number of Picture awards.
Chastain is winning because her performance is AMPAS catnip. That kind of performance was never critic’s thing. CC are Pundits Choice really so that’s different.
Chastain is now winning unless shocker surprise. I think that the deciding factor – this is full of pundits – was how due she is to win, when 3 of the main contenders at Oscars, are already Oscar winners (and Stewart has a long career in front of her, yet)
You make good, clear sense. Also, in an imperfect movie — mainly, the script is too long and diffuse — Chastain is remarkably good. Her intricate, rapid-fire variations in vocal inflections and facial and bodily expressions made Tammy fresh, blooming and irritatingly contradictory, like a real person.
Ari Wegner- first female cinematography win at any major awards show?
Not this year.
No I mean she won tonight, I don’t think a female has won before
Streaming?
On the CW TV network.
When do these start?
7pm ET
One last thing, for tonight – I didn’t get too much sleep before these shows, so I should try to go to bed as soon as possible… So, like I said, over the last few hours, including during the show, on breaks, I’ve been taking a very good look at what changes could/would need to be made to my system for CODA to become stats-valid, which it’s currently not. This research seems necessary now because of the strong support from multiple industry groups suggested primarily by its BAFTA screenplay win, but also Kotsur’s sweep. (Which was more expected, after the SAG wins for the movie.) Before this, there was no particularly good argument that it was anything other than a supporting actor winner and a big favorite at SAG, and neither of those things means any particular strength for a BP win. But a possible screenplay win (since it’s likely also winning the WGA, although it also might not), coupled with said acting win, does.
So, long story short… (Yes, believe me, the whole story is even longer than this post!) I think I’ve looked at every possibility and, unless I was to completely change the whole basic approach of my system, which would clearly be a massive overreaction and I’m simply never going to do it – if that’s what it takes, then it’s just going to have to fail this year (and I’ll do the whole rethink then, if necessary), if CODA is indeed the new Parasite, despite the heaps of mega-strong stats evidence to the contrary -, the only possible way for it to ever become the (modified) system’s favorite (without said system then failing to predict any of the previous PGA era winners correctly, as a result of the changes) would be for me to put back into the set of snubs used for the WGA+1 rule (which says a movie that is eligible for and fails to win the WGA needs to not have been snubbed for picture/PGA, director/DGA or editing/ACE by the guilds or AMPAS, in order to be a valid potential Best Picture winner) the SAG Ensemble nomination. Then, coupled with The Power of the Dog‘s failure to dominate screenplay, this would mean there would be a fully reasonable interpretation of the guild and Oscar stats situation which would make all of the movies in the race out to not be stats-valid (because The Power of the Dog‘s WGA ineligibility, one that says nothing, either way, about its strength or weakness in the BP race, should not, logically, be a shield for it from the WGA+1 rule, the one it might have fallen to had it been eligible – again, only if the ensemble nomination were to be added back to the list of snubs which can activate this rule), leaving the branch/weakness count to decide matters.
Even with this change, CODA would then still absolutely have to win both the PGA and WGA to come out ahead of The Power of the Dog in that count. And I don’t think it’s doing that, like I said. But, if it does win the WGA and Dog wins the PGA, I might nevertheless consider predicting CODA unofficially, in spite of my system and the stats (which would of course still pick Dog at that point), because then it would at least almost make sense that it could maybe break all of those age-old combined stats that have never been broken. As for making the alteration to the system detailed above, I’m not fully convinced it’s warranted, even though it does work out (the four ensemble-snubbed BP winners all either won the WGA or would win their head-to-head match-ups against all other contenders in none-are-valid situations, like the one in Green Book‘s year), and I’m not sure I’ll decide it makes enough sense. In fact, I think it probably doesn’t – it would lead to there being too many exceptions to the WGA+1 rule (both Green Book and The Shape of Water, which is a lot for an elimination rule – I’m not even fully comfortable with the one exception there already is, Green Book, with its directing snub at the Oscars, being there, and I don’t trust this elimination rule as much as some of my other ones, as a result, but I just about have to, mostly due to Apollo 13 vs. Braveheart, which truly can’t be resolved in favor of Braveheart any other way, with an all-industry approach), even if both would come out as the system’s favorites, nonetheless.
In any case, I will only need to make a decision on this if CODA wins the PGA. Mostly, I’m banking on CODA not winning that and hoping it shows further weakness by not winning the WGA (thus providing a final key clue), despite a seemingly very easy category and its BAFTA win. A WGA defeat for it would be enough for me to trust the system’s prediction as is. Not that I wouldn’t still be nervous about it, but at least I would fully agree with it logically, in that case. Then, it would be closest to American Hustle, as a precedent (even ignoring the evidence provided by CODA’s snubs, not that one should), a losing one. It also wouldn’t be a SAG+WGA winner… Perhaps even more important, as that’s always a scary combo to predict against, even if it’s never led to a win before when any Oscar snubs for directing or editing (or a PGA snub) were involved. So, basically, as usual… It comes down to the WGA, after all. 🙂 Even with the ineligibility lists being what they are this year. Only the WGA can fully tell us how strong or not CODA and King Richard are. (We already know The Power of the Dog is vulnerable. But is anything strong enough to take it down? As for the PGA, that one will decide what the main alternative is, if any – and, should Belfast win it, somehow, it would mean it’s still in play. Despite its non-industry stats problems and its editing snub at the Oscars. It would still be stats-valid, according to the system, and in fact would then become the system’s favorite. And I would concur.)
Damn! I had to work all day and missed both awards ceremonies. I’ll have a look on YouTube for some speeches – and getting through all these comments…
Only the WGA can fully tell us how strong or not CODA and King Richard are. (We already know The Power of the Dog is vulnerable. But is anything strong enough to take it down?
I am going to go for King Richard for PGA. Though after CODA doing so well it’s tempting not to pick it too. Belfast looks like a miracle win now. Of course, we cannot discount TPOTD. It just doesn’t scream PGA or BP winner style wise. Unless it’s a No Country for Old Men year where the Academy goes for the art house flick. Would be funny actually with all this talk about Marvel films etc.. taking over the Oscars.
WGA will be very telling!
The Critics Choice show has been posted on YouTube, but it’s got lotsa ads!
Thanks so much 🙂
🙁 At least we do have Youtube, for when we can’t catch them live.
“Unless it’s a No Country for Old Men year where the Academy goes for the art house flick.”
To be fair, there are enough such years these days that it easily can be…
Just to add SOMETHING interesting to the way this is all going — doesn’t it feel like Best Actress is still up for grabs? And that Kristen Stewart or Penelope Cruz seem best positioned for something so perfectly surprising and MARVELOUS on Oscar night?
Oh Oscar people, let us dream of something fun and possible here! Or else we’re marching towards a steady stream of mediocrity.
Like I said below, I find it hard to take Stewart seriously after her loss tonight – even Mulligan was able to win here, in a more fractured race than this year’s. Stewart also has no other nominations for her movie. Cruz makes a lot more sense as an anti-stats dark horse to me.
Cruz is my pick.
Thnking it could be Chastain though with this win.
Bold pick! I might be rooting for you to get it right. 🙂 And, in any case, I will certainly be very impressed if you do…
I feel like I want to go with my heart – though my head says Chastain.
I never go with my heart over my head – and I wish I ended up being wrong more often than I am, in those cases! 🙂
Probably is just Chastain, of course… And I just remembered Globe hasn’t been enough on its own in lead, ever, so… I’ll probably go Chastain. Cruz would be in my top 3, though, at the very least. (Chances-wise – not seen the movie.)
Oh you must see the film! Cruz is just out of this world amazing. 🙂
Oh, I will – not sure if before the Oscars, but certainly not long after, at worst…
Mulligan won here before SAG announced. This year BFCA had a nice and easy pick to copy.
True. OR she’s just the one most people are voting for (GG is still by far the smallest voting body of these three), so of course she would win most places. I still struggle to believe the theory that Stewart would have won in January – I just don’t think so many people would really change their vote and make that happen. You probably already know I don’t really subscribe to this “BFCA are trying to predict the Oscars” theory… 🙂 More likely, being pundits, they nominate the favorites because those are the ones they are most likely to actually see, and then they vote for the favorites because, well, that’s who most people are voting for. Take BFCA out of it and you still have LOADS of copy-pasting in the acting races, and not only, from GG to BAFTA to SAG to the Oscars. They’re no worse than those groups, really.
yes, because this is a fight between dueness (Chastain is, but we all know how cruel Oscar can be with that, if they’re not convinced with the actual film) vs. actual quality and challenge of the performance if they see all of them. They may skip Riva, Montenegro, Wallis, Castle-Hughes because thinking nomination was enough or because bored by subtitles (something I don’t really buy from pros, even studio executives will check out talent wherever it comes from), but in this year’s line up, I doubt anyone is going to skip any of the films, and if they do skip one… I think the mixed reception of Tammy Faye actually works against Chastain’s chances way more than Stewart’s (buzzed all year long) and Cruz (collaborating with Pedro again), which are must sees for anyone in the industry before actually voting.
I think after Critics Choice, this is Chastain’s year, at last. However, I wouldn’t be in shock by Colman, Cruz, Stewart or even Kidman winning. At the very least.
Yeah, of course, in a year where the front-runner (which is now Chastain) has so many arguments against her (not BAFTA top 2 in the nominations phase, movie with only make-up as its other nomination, bad reviews, etc.), almost any result is possible. I wouldn’t be shocked by any of them winning, either, but I would be pretty surprised if Colman or Stewart won, at this point, as opposed to one of the other three.
yes, and I insist on Cruz’s MASSIVE last minute support by peers, urging the acting branch to actually see Parallel Mothers, and that’s why I have the hunch, she’s number 2, over Colman. But it’s all really, really tight, and Chastain has the actual last-minute showing.
I’ve been saying for a long time that Chastain and Kidman winning does not really make sense. So I’m still expecting a surprise from one of the other 3.
Melanie’s win was the highlight for me. We now have three locked acting winners (Kotsur, DeBose, and Smith) and one near lock (Chastain). Ho hum.
Same for me. Melanie winning was a nice surprise. All the rest of the tv acting winners were quite predictable.
Also in play now, the 100% all-time stat that says nothing other than The Power of the Dog, Belfast and West Side Story can win Best Picture: no movie has ever won in the Critics Choice era without also winning (or tying for) either picture, director or screenplay at the Golden Globes or Critics Choice. (At least 1/6.) I know, I know, Globes cancelled and so on… We’ll see. 🙂
So it’s down to Dog and WSS, then… 😉
Lol – I mean, maybe the BAFTA/GG/DGA/WGA stat can be beaten, since it’s not 100% an industry stat. So, I’d still think Belfast is the one that’s much closer… (Especially since West Side Story is stats-dead based on industry stats alone. I trust its case much less. Belfast remains valid, on that count. There’s also still King Richard, which is ruled out by non-industry stats but not by guild/Oscar stats. I’d say West Side Story is fourth, at best. If it wins the PGA, of course, maybe that changes.)
Belfast can’t win because the unforgivable sin of telling a story about white people with a white cast.
Yeah, movies about white people with white casts like Nomadland and The Power of the Dog have no chance at winning major awards.
To be fair, Dog hasn’t won yet… 🙂
If you prefer straight white people’s family’s stories…
Loved the show, overall. As usual. Loved most of the winners even more.
Am I the only one that loves an awards season that is all over the map and hard to pin down??
I’m loving this!
I do prefer it when they pick different winners. I don’t even mind if the guilds go the same way as long as GG, BFCA and BAFTA go different ways. But the acting is always boring as the just repeat all the time. Lead Actress is the only interesting one and that’s mainly thanks to BAFTA.
Agreed regarding Best Actress – it would appear that it’s Chastain’s to lose now and I’m ok with that. It’s a stunning performance in an otherwise Ho hum movie. I’m in the minority regarding Stewart in Spencer, but I won’t be surprised if she ends up taking the Oscar. For me, and I know I’m alone, she’s in 5th place for me.
I love a good upset. It would be neat if Stewart won.
Remember the year Juliette Binoche won? Everyone was shocked that Lauren Bacall lost.
Song of the moment for fans of Dune – Where is the Love, Black Eyed Peas.
Gimme wins taken away from them at every turn. Everywhere. There’s a line in the movie Thirteen Days about the Cuban Missile Crisis; “Sometimes there is only one right choice, and you thank God when it’s so clear.”
There’s a lot of fog in movie award-giving circles right now.
Yes, but the really question is who knows what’s the right choice? You?
No, of course. But it’d have been a good start to coalesce behind a movie that got mid-80’s on RT and earned more domestically than the other 9 BP nominees combined.
#justsayin
R.I.P. The Power of the Dog. Its four wins here, including Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and Cinematography spell absolute defeat. This is the final death knell.
Cinematography yes!
Campion is amazing. Nothing more to add.
Speaking as a New Zealander here…. Melanie Lynskey really has the most kiwi accent I have ever heard on screen
And her American accent is excellent!
With Critics Choice going for West Side Story in editing, predicting Best Editing at the Oscars this year is going to be the biggest clusterf**k since 2012 and 2014.
Not really. Dune. End of story. You’re welcome. 🙂
Like, will Dune win without winning any of the big precursors… I really feel like the answer is yes but that is just bizarre!
It’s clearly not. They just think it’s too long. 🙁 (Even though that makes it all the more impressive in the editing department, for me, given that nothing at all felt unnecessary and there was no break in the flow whatsoever.)
But then if it’s not, what is? Even if nobody is giving it the award nobody can agree on who to give it to!
The reason I don’t think it’s Dune is it was nominated everywhere so it also lost everywhere. Too many losses. Worse than having a snub and a win.
The sound nomination stat is overrated. It will probably be tick, tick…BOOM! – or maybe it actually IS King Richard, somehow… Can still be The Power of the Dog, too. In any case, after losing all of these as the favorite, even if there’s a no-precursors editing winner, I don’t see it being Dune.
Surely since Dog hasn’t won any either it is just as bad? I dunno, I get that Dune has lost more by being nominated everywhere but maybe it has been 2nd everywhere and the fact that it is nominated means people at least liked it? I dunno, the whole thing is just giving me a headache!
I would actually love it to be Tick, Tick… BOOM. That would be so inspired since to me that was the standout aspect of that film (even more than Garfield) but I’m skeptical of it going to a film not nominated for picture. Maybe it is King Richard after all, I dunno.
I haven’t seen TTB yet. And, yes, King Richard is looking more and more like an option in this category, after today…
It’s lost less times than Dune as a nominee (didn’t lose at BAFTA and we can’t be 100% sure it would have, with the whole of BAFTA voting, as opposed to just the branch, even if its two BAFTA’s tally does suggest it might have – but it’s not like No Time To Die crushed it there, either) and is the clear favorite for BP.
“but maybe it has been 2nd everywhere and the fact that it is nominated means people at least liked it? I dunno, the whole thing is just giving me a headache!”
The age-old question… 🙂 I’ve seen contenders snubbed for stuff win more often than contenders that got in everywhere but lost, I would say. Remember, Rylance and McDormand (the one that missed nothing in their categories in their seasons, in unclear races) did at least win BAFTA! So they’re not precedents for Dune winning. What is?
I mean at least techs there are tons of times in which the tech has been nominated everywhere, not won then won at Oscar. A particularly noteworthy example is fantastic beasts in costumes but I know that is a particularly odd one
Because, when this happens, usually quite a few of the voters will have some awareness of that movie being the favorite before voting, so their vote won’t just be a vote for something else, it will also be, to some extent, a vote against said favorite. A sign of disagreement with what they are, in a sense, being told/expected to do. So, then, each win is also a stronger clue than it is for something like Beasts or Ex Machina (which I do think missed VFXS, though).
Yeah, I looked into that one too. 🙂 Well pointed-out! I guess that’s true, there are some examples… I don’t think there are that many, though. I don’t remember that many more, in any case. (Not that my memory is anything to rely on.) But the thing is logically it’s hard for me to see a movie that was the favorite in the category at the start then losing all 3 precursors and still winning. These scenarios just don’t turn around. They always seem to lead to defeat. Is there a counter-example here? I don’t think Beasts was anywhere near being the favorite at any point.
Yeah it is an interesting point. If I get a chance before the Oscars I might sit down and have a deep dive 🙂
Do let me know if you do! (I might as well, for the sake of trying to predict this category accurately, but it will depend on the time available to me.) I’m very curious about the findings.
But would be the precedent for The Power of the Dog winning here?
Same as Dune‘s, I guess – none. Every editing winner since Traffic has won either BAFTA, ACE or Critics Choice. Traffic had no BFCA editing category available to win. It was nominated by both ACE and BAFTA.
The last 7 all won either ACE Drama or BAFTA. So it could be King Richard… (The stat against it is no editing winner since 1951 has not had either a directing nomination or at least one sound nomination – but King Richard, as opposed to almost all of those, only had a combined sound category it could be nominated in, so we can’t be absolutely sure it wouldn’t have gotten in with two categories in play.)
But Dog makes more sense to me. It has the BP strength. The stats favorite will probably be Dune, despite no wins. I’m not sure. But I don’t think I’d pick the stats favorite, in this case.
Meanwhile, you have the Hardens and Coburns of the world… Snubbed pretty much everywhere, but had some critics wins and both beat out people not snubbed anywhere in unclear races, if I’m not mistaken. I should look for more precedents, I go back to these two too often. 🙂 I need more examples. Braveheart in picture is one. Missed PGA, didn’t win any big BP prizes, but beat out a PGA winner nominated more places than it (Apollo 13) and even a GG+BFCA+BAFTA winner nominated everywhere in the category (Sense and Sensibility), due to other stats issues for the latter.
I guess TTB also has no BP nod – so Dog is maybe the favorite for me. I don’t think the BAFTA snub stat is a huge deal, it can be beaten in a category with no front-runner. But I hope I’m wrong and it’s indeed Dune. 🙂
Welp, I guess with those screenplay and cinematography wins, The Power of the Dog has no chance whatsoever. Looks like CODA and Belfast are going to tie for Best Picture.
Hmmm. These results read more like a ‘le’ts predict the oscar winners’ rather than an independent voice.
It’s copy-catting, rubber-stamping of more prominent award shows past and imminent.
Loved Berry’s speech!
Kieran Culkin – funniest speech of the season…
Because it wasn’t one. 🙂
Something like that. 🙂
It’s a shame Kodi got robbed of his Globes TV moment. He deserved it.
At least Troy Kotsur got his deserved TV moments.
Yeah, he seems like a good guy. Happy for him
It might have helped his campaign, but I don’t think he personally cares all that much. He seems to be the work is reward kind of person.
I really like both performances so I am perfectly happy with Kotsur winning but it would’ve been nice if it could’ve been more of a race in the end so they could both get up and give speeches at different shows! There were 2 shows today, it would’ve been ideal if they could win one each!
I hate that I can’t see Succession through AMZ Prime like I did before. HBO has shut out Prime members.
HBO Max is pretty good I much rather have it then Prime since I really don’t use free shipping and their selection is better.
Lots of advantages to Prime. I get “free music” with Prime and free shipping and I buy from AMZ all the time. Items usually are delivered within 2 days, sometimes the same day. Also I get Whole Foods discounts with Prime.
I rarely buy stuff from Amazon and Whole Paycheck.
Who are these 5 women? The Real Housewives?
The cast of FX’s Pose
OH! Their cosmetic surgeon did a good job.
CCA are so shameless – if Kidman had won SAG they would’ve picked her. They are 100% predicting rather than picking who they want. In saying that, I am happy with Chastain over Kidman (though Stewart would easily be my pick)
So, then, total sweeps in the acting categories at TV awards… (“Spoiled” only by BAFTA’s jury in Best Actress. Which kind of sucks for predictions, because we have less clarity on whether Kidman – or somebody else – can actually challenge Chastain or not.)
Her film is the only one to win anything at BAFTA so I count that as support for her.
Chastain – yes, makes sense.
No it does not worst of the nominees
I meant in terms of evidence of strength, of course. 🙂
Haven’t seen the movie yet.
The new BAFTA voting system made things so messy on Actress.
So Chastain seems more likely for Oscar.
Never underestimate the Academy’s love for “gorgeous actress getting ugly for role.”
Charlize Theron, Monster says yeah, you’re right.
Kidman, The Hours
Will, can you please give some credit to your family and the producers? Geez.
Same winners as the sags they got 3of the 4 categories wrong .
Only best supporting actress was correct.
Will’s win tells me one thing: No matter how much dirt is exposed about an actor, they can still win.
I mean they did give Green Book the awards for Original Screenplay and Picture not too long after Nick Vallelonga’s racist tweets, so anything is possible.
Putting a marker down a year in advance. Remember this title:
The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent. Nicolas Cage is back, folks. Both will be in the Oscar 2023 race.
Will Smith. Hey! It’s SAG the sequel show.
Jessica was at the BAFTAS. Oh wait…
Did she not show up? Cause I can’t find any clips?
Is this the best hosting they could get?
Replace the word “get” with “afford”
Carrot Top was busy
The Critic’s Choice Awards have never been what you’d call a “must-have” gig.
Ted Lasso love! Love it.
They’re also the only TV awards group that nominated Yellowjackets, which I thought was amazing and should be winning stuff…
See? What do I keep telling you all?! 🙂 These guys are ALWAYS so much closer to my tastes than all of the other precursors…
Early evening joy. Late evening wound licking. 🙂
I know, but here it at least feels like Belfast has a chance at something above the line… 🙂 (Probably just screenplay.)
At BAFTA they just crushed that (already faint, knowing them) hope very early on.
I think they are pretty lame except in BP BD and Screenplay. Forget the rest.
Another beatdown of the Dog and here comes Belfast.
I thought that Coda written all over it. It won SAG would Ensemble, so what happened? Or was it not even nominated?
Coda was not nominated.
So, it had an even less chance of winning.
The Best Picture/SAG Ensemble correlation is pretty weak. Not sure why people keep pointing to that.
I think you need to point this out Coda Supporters.
I mean tell that to Parasite, Spotlight, Birdman, Crash, and Chicago. The Power of the Dog still has it due to it being the only major contender with an Editing nomination, but SAG has definitely helped turn the race around for some.
14 of the 26 winners before CODA have not gone on to win Best Picture, including six of the last ten winners. The numbers are not in favor of CODA.
I never said they were. I’m saying that sometimes on rare occasions, SAG has been known to flip the switch (especially for Crash and Birdman). CODA would break so many stats if it won Best Picture that it makes it impossible for it to win (even though I’d LOVE it if it did). The Power of the Dog 100% has it in the bag. CODA, Belfast, and West Side Story never received an editing nomination and that stat has been ongoing for over four decades (with the exception of Birdman winning since that was a one take gimmick).
Ensemble. Belfast. OMG! It’s sweeping and on its way to win BP! 🙂
Still would’ve preferred the mega-star power of Dune. Now that’s a super team, in NBA speak.
I love Everybody loves Raymond. Ray was pretty funny here.
So supporting actor at Oscar is over now right?
I think it was after his BAFTA win. I think it might have at SAG even because of how it all played out.
No! No! Kodi is going to win because all the critics said so! Don’t you deny him!
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/053ef263254dadb5cf3b057249cb82cc9a5cf62c37d1bcca6898076479d99f46.gif
Looks like it.
Hey where are all the McPhee fans?????
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aca0aee039ee98c68d521e2bc80a77fb4dedfa6edaa65ee82164457c1168a276.gif
He’s got a bigger fish to fry. It’s all about the big one: Best Picture
Yes, he’s happy to lose.
I don’t know about him personally, but us the fans of The Dog much prefer to win the big pne: Best Picture.
Celebrating TPOTD’s DGA & BAFTA wins, that’s where we are.
We don’t really care about the kids table.
I admit a bit behind, I was assuming they had done voting already as it was postponed just a couple of days before it was to air in January. But heard still voting since so not sure if any wins tonight mean shifts or done before stuff like Chastain winning SAG. So am curious to how some might change races, including Best Actress which remains tight.