No category this year has been as much of a rollercoaster ride as Best Actress. Since there have been more contenders than usual this year in more films, we’ve somehow arrived at one of the strangest years in the era of the preferential ballot: none of the five Best Actress contenders appear in a Best Picture nominee. You’d think there would be some crossover, given that there are ten Best Picture contenders, but nope. Central female roles were prominent in Ridley Scott’s two films this year, House of Gucci with Lady Gaga and The Last Duel with Jodie Comer, but neither got in. Jennifer Hudson was the legendary Aretha Franklin in Respect, but didn’t land. Nicole Kidman stars in Being the Ricardos, which is a PGA nominee, but nope — that didn’t get nominated for Best Picture. CODA’s lead role features Emilia Jones, but she was not nominated.
Jennifer Lawrence is lead in Don’t Look Up, Rachel Zegler is lead in West Side Story, Alana Haim is lead in Licorice Pizza, yet none of them got in. Then, when the BAFTA announced their committee-selected Best Actress six, none of the Oscar nominees crossed over. That meant that, for the second year in a row, there were three different winners at Globe, SAG, and BAFTA. Of course, BAFTA doesn’t really factor in when it comes to finding the final winner.
Because of the unusual nature of this year’s slate, we can’t rely on our three criteria for Best Actress:
Likability actress
Likability of role
Likeability of movie
Now, we’re down to how much voters like the actress and how much they like the role.
Nicole Kidman won at the Golden Globes. Jessica Chastain won at the SAG Awards and then again at the Critics Choice Awards. The Eyes of Tammy Faye did win Makeup at the BAFTA, which seems to be an indicator that the voters there were on the side of that movie, meaning Chastain might have won there had she been nominated (and likely would have been without BAFTA’s new committee system).
So why is Jessica Chastain winning now when it seemed like Kristen Stewart or Nicole Kidman had the momentum? I think it has to do with three things:
The first — none of these movies have a Best Picture nomination. That makes things all equal in terms of how much voters like their movies, which is to say they don’t seem to like them enough to push them into the Best Picture race. I mean, even The Blind Side got in the year Sandra Bullock won. No Best Picture nominees levels the playing field in a way that makes it a little bit harder to single any one out.
Because of that, physical transformation or perceived level of difficulty makes the difference. If they have nothing else to go on, they are deciding Jessica Chastain’s performance was the most difficult, went the farthest, was the most challenging. Even if they don’t like the movie that much, they like the actress and that makes up for it.
The second — Jessica Chastain has worked with almost everyone in Hollywood and has never won an Oscar. That makes her overdue. She is known for often challenging herself with several films in a given year and got close to winning with Zero Dark Thirty back in 2013, but then found herself just missing out on Oscar nominations for most of the next decade despite continuing to deliver acclaimed work in films like A Most Violent Year, Miss Sloane, and Molly’s Game.
The third — Tammy Faye Bakker represents a dimension of social justice. She crossed party lines to open her heart to the gay community which, for evangelicals at the time (and many evangelicals still today), was considered a mortal sin. Voters might not like Tammy Faye Bakker overall, but they liked that she did this one thing, that she made a difference in people’s lives. Ironically, Princess Diana is known for doing the same thing. She is known as being the first globally famous person to embrace a patient with HIV/AIDS during the height of the AIDS pandemic in 1987. That went a long way to eliminate the public stigma attached with AIDS sufferers. You might have had to be alive in the 1980s to remember it, but it was a big deal. That helps Kristen Stewart too.
Where Nicole Kidman is concerned, what she has going for her heading in is her brilliant performance as Lucille Ball. Without a Best Picture nomination for Being the Ricardos, without a major physical transformation, and without some kind of social justice issue to push — not having any of those is probably why she didn’t win the SAG. But that doesn’t mean she won’t win the Oscar.
Although Chastain is likely the winner on Oscar night, there is precedent for a surprise in this category because there is not a strong consensus at the moment, due to BAFTAs voting changes.
If Kidman won the Globe and Chastain won the SAG, that sets up a dynamic where they could split each other’s votes, as likely happened last year when Andra Day won the Golden Globe and Viola Davis won the SAG, then Frances McDormand won the BAFTA and the Oscar. The same thing happened in 2003 with Jack Nicholson in About Schmidt winning the Globe and Daniel Day-Lewis in Gangs of New York winning the SAG, then Adrien Brody winning the Oscar in a shocker. Sometimes when you have two strong performances they can split the vote, leaving a third contender with passionate support to win. There are many times throughout Oscar history where this happened. The crowd can always tell when there is a genuine surprise.
(By the way, the Academy’s YouTube account seems to have unlisted Brody’s win from their account, but it’s there with over 5.9 million views.)
It isn’t exactly the same thing because the movies involved were all up for Best Picture, but let’s take 1951. Anne Baxter and Bette Davis were both up for All About Eve, as was Gloria Swanson for Sunset Boulevard. Ultimately, Judy Holliday would win for Born Yesterday, which was seen as “light” compared to the others, but the splitting of the votes between the other contenders allowed for Holliday’s supporters to pull through a win. Listen to the crowd roar when she wins — you can tell it was a surprise. She wasn’t even there to accept it.
Another year might have been 1962, when Audrey Hepburn was up for Breakfast at Tiffany’s against Natalie Wood in Splendor in the Grass. Sophia Loren would win for Two Women. None of these films were up for Best Picture. Loren wasn’t nominated for a Golden Globe. Hepburn did not win the Golden Globe, nor did Natalie Wood. And, incidentally, it was also the year West Side Story won Best Picture. This would benefit perhaps Kristen Stewart in Spencer, or for Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers too. Loren also wasn’t there to accept the award.
None of the Best Actress contenders had won the Golden Globe prior to the ceremony, which led to a surprise win by Loren.
Believe it or not, the 1980s was a great decade for actresses. I personally think another year like the one we’re in was 1986 when Geraldine Page in The Trip to Bountiful beat Whoopi Goldberg in The Color Purple, Jessica Lange in Sweet Dreams, and Meryl Streep in Out of Africa. Goldberg won the Golden Globe in Drama, while Kathleen Turner won the Comedy Globe section for Prizzi’s Honor. But Page was way overdue (8th nomination without a win) and it’s possible the other actresses split the vote, leaving the sentimental favorite to win.
The last one is 1988, where Cher won for Moonstruck up against Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction, Holly Hunter in Broadcast News, and Meryl Streep in Ironweed. And again, I know that we’re not in any kind of similar situation since none of the Best Actress contenders this year are in movies voters liked enough to nominate for Best Picture. Sally Kirkland had won Best Actress at the Globes in Drama, but Cher did win the Globe for Comedy. Despite the competition in the category, she pulled through for the Oscar win.
When it comes down to voting time, I expect voters will choose the actress they know and like best rather than the performance or the character. They know and like Chastain, Kidman, and Cruz. They are just getting to know Kristen Stewart and Olivia Colman, even though she was just handed a Best Actress Oscar win for The Favourite. Their roots are deeper with the other three.
It has been an incredibly competitive year for Best Actress. Now, it’s all over but the last big speech on Oscar night.
So I will ask you Oscarwatchers, which actress will win? Which actress should win? Which actress should have been nominated?
Team Chastain all the way. Nicole Kidman did not deserve the Oscar for The Hours (perhaps she did for other movies) so shouldn’t have 2 for Lead Actress by now while Chastain doesn’t have any. And I don’t think she is superior to Chastain in Eyes anyway.
I don’t know who will win, but how was Rachel Zegner denied even a ticket to attend the awards? She is the lead in a Best Picture nominee but can’t even attend the ceremony? Outrageous!!
An Anonymous balloter did not vote for Chastain or Kidman or Stewart
They didn’t make it clear who they voted for among Colman or Cruz, however, I do think that It would be foolish to judge the whole race from a single anonymous voter.
But I will take that step and say that it’s gonna be so.
i still do bet on Colman or Cruz. Considering that the Baftas make up a large voting body and that The Lost Daughter was longlisted for 8 of those awards, I will currently giver her the edge.
1. Colman
2. Cruz
3. Chastain
4. Kidman
5. Stewart
watching Spencer, and with this I’ve seen three performances…
1. Cruz
2. Stewart
3. Kidman
You haven’t watched The Lost Daughter and Tammy Faye yet!?
nope
You have catching up to do!! Would love to see your ranking after you finish watching them all
I think it’s a “career Oscar” moment for Kidman, who should’ve been nominated (and in hindsight maybe should’ve even won) for performances in “Dogville,” “Birth,” “Eyes Wide Shut,” and “To Die For,” NONE of which even received a nomination.
she’s been snubbed soooo many times… still, I think consensus at this point may be that she shouldn’t win for this particular performance, not in front of much more celebrated work, including career-best performances by Cruz and Stewart, maybe Chastain’s as well.
Unfortunately the Academy prefers her by-the-numbers biopics rather than her fictional characters. Nothing for The Others either, just Moulin Rouge. If they rewarded her for another performance playing an icon, heavy makeup and all, it would be tragic and NOT indicative of her career, a poor milestone for the Academy and Kidman.
Chastain winning is bad, too, for other reasons. Her film is a snore, an obvious grab for Oscar and a annual tactic used by Best Actress hopefuls for the past two decades.
I grew up watching I Love Lucy and loved it! So I was curious about BTRs! Turns out I loved the movie and Nicole Kidman was fantastic as Lucille Ball and also as Lucy (sort of a dual performance)! So don’t understand most of you ruling her out so easily! Her performance was not an easy task but she pulled it off IMO! Also, I remember Tammy Faye and her disgraced husband and all that went on about that and couldn’t imagine anyone being interested in seeing a movie about!! It played out enough on the news to never wanting to hear or see anything about them! Again, my opinion! Another thing, another performance about poor Princess Diana! Wish they would let her RIP! Enough has been told about her! So I’m very proud to be rooting for Nicole Kidman!
A bit late in this particular thread, but…
11th Annual Preferential Ballot Simulation
How is everyone doing? I figure, since it’s tradition, even if a few days later this year than in previous ones, on the eve of the PGA, I should once more ask for your help with my yearly preferential ballot simulation… If you feel you’ve seen enough of this year’s Best Picture nominees (including those which are most likely to win online or at the Oscars) for your vote to be relevant, please rank them here! And I will, as usual, count the votes using the preferential method, in a few days’ time, and post the results. Thanks in advance to all who decide to vote!
This year, I’m particularly interested in what the Movie Awards Redux ballots will look like, since there is reason to believe they might look rather different from the Awards Daily votes… (The truth is they often do, which is always one of the most interesting things about running this simulation.) My own ranking (which I will only count as a ballot if I manage to see Drive My Car over the next few days and add it to the list) is currently as follows:
1. Dune
2. Belfast
3. Don’t Look Up
4. West Side Story
5. CODA
6. The Power of the Dog
7. King Richard
I rewatched The Power of the Dog a couple of days ago – found it a bit more interesting than the first time, but not by much. Still not a fan of the ending. I’m probably going to see both Drive My Car and Licorice Pizza before the date of the Oscars. Not sure about Nightmare Alley. I doubt I’ll be seeing that one before tallying the votes for this simulation, in any case.
A thing to note, one that helped me predict The Father in screenplay last year, is that all of the winners of this simulation, over the years, have won at least one Oscar. (Which probably won’t be very helpful this year, as all of the possible winners are for sure winning at least one at the Oscars, anyway.) The historical results are:
2011 The Social Network —— details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty ———- 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ————————– 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ——————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road —– 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight —————— 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ——— 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name
2019 The Favourite ————- 45-30 over Roma
2020 Parasite ——————– 46-14 over The Irishman
2021 The Father —————– 36-34 over Nomadland
I get why people now say it’s Chastain with Cruz as the spoiler. But how screwed up was this year, even now, when many experts wound up predicting Gaga to win and Jessica to be snubbed? Last year so few of us thought Frances was higher than 4th. So who knows now. I still just don’t see Cruz or Stewart winning. I get that Kidman no longer feels likely given Chastain’s rise, but I don’t think she went from 1st to 5th. And I will never underestimate Olivia Colman. At this point, they are not still “getting to know” her.
This exactly. And yes – they definitely know Olivia Colman by now.
Chastain is in it to win it.
Chastain is a clear front runner. She gave a lovely SAG speech, that everyone noticed. And now she is showing solidarity in protest for those categories being left off the live show, by skipping the red carpet. She also took the AIDS victim that Tammy Faye worked with as her date to the Oscar Luncheon. BAFTA clearly supported the film by giving it a win, which isn’t nothing.
She’s working it. All just at the right timing. If she doesn’t win, I’d be shocked. However, I’d be happy with anyone but Stewart. I love the other four nominees and either one of them would be a wonderful second Oscar win.
Buuttttttttt all that to say….
Go Chastain Go!!!
There should be a “best performance for portraying a real live person” award.
Kidman. Kidman all the way.
It’s going to come down to this – someone HAS to win here. By default, Chastain is the only previous nominee who is Oscar less. And no one is in a Best Picture. If Kidman (5), Cruz (4), Colman (3) had never won, they could have gotten a due narrative. Stewart is the weakest – as the sole nominee for her film.
The problem is it’s just not a very interesting category this year. The two best performances are clearly Colman and Cruz in little seen movies. The other three are all movie stars trying to portray, with varying degrees of success or failure, famous dead women. One is in a poorly written film in a role that has recently been portrayed better by others on TV. The other two rely heavily on make-up, though in one case it’s appropriate and the other it’s just weird. I hope they show some dignity and give it to either Colman or Cruz. If not, then at least to Chastain for attempting a tricky and difficult role somewhat successfully.
Have to agree that either Colman and Cruz deserve to win for their tremendous performances. However, I would not be disappointed if Chastain or Stewart bag in. A Kidman win, as much as I adore her, is a travesty.
I think 95% of the people voting would have seen all 5 nominees by the time of voting… I’d say even more than that.
Jessica Chastain
I still mantain… the name that I read/hear the most as “should win” is Cruz. The name that had a strong last minute word of mouth to urge to see the film, so the performance would stand a chance, was Cruz’s. Question is, if it is a sign that the tide will go in her favor – the performance is raw, heartbreaking, a career best in an Oscar-winning career, and quite different to the rest – or at the final hour, they will just go for the dueness of Chastain, even if they may not be really happy at heart, that she’s winning for a film that has mixed reviews…
We’ll soon find out. At this point, I’m going to bet for Chastain, then Cruz, then Colman, then Stewart and finally Kidman… but any of the five can win, anyone thinking this is closed and with a clear fronturnner, is deceiving him/herself. It’s not even a 3 horses race. It is a FIVE horses race and they’re all in a narrow distance from each other…
Is Cruz campaigning? I haven’t seen her anywhere.
YouTube is full of interviews to her on american and british talk shows…
WILL WIN: Jessica Chastain
SHOULD WIN: Penelope Cruz
POSSIBLE SPOILER: Nicole Kidman
SHOULD’VE BEEN NOMINATED: Renate Reinsve
Yes to ALL of that.
Jessica Chastain just announced she’s skipping the red carpet to show solidarity with the makeup artists and other behind-the-scenes professionals. Tell me that didn’t just buy her some votes.
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If they don’t know her by now, they will never, never know her.
(She’s been in films longer than Chastain and Colman.)
I think she’s right. This is her first nomination and she’s not done well in major precursors so a win is a tall order for her. Chastain is also not a particular favourite so I’m unconvinced she’s sealed the deal.
I never said she (Stewart) was winning, in fact I’ve been saying the opposite for months. I wasn’t convinced about Chastain until recently, and I still think Cruz has a shot, as Sammy saud below.
She missed SAG and BAFTA and she did not win the GG or BFCA to compensate for that, like Regina King did. She’s the rank outsider.
Gut feeling.
Hope for Cruz win but would not be disappointed with any of the others except Kidman.
while it’s not Kidman’s finest hour, I think she would be a worthy winner. Any of the five would be.
I would put her in fifth place out of the five nominees. In fact, I wouldn’t have nominated her in the first place.
The only acting nominees this year that I’m truly excited about tbh are, the darkest horses, Cruz and Garfield…
Edited to add: …speaking purely about performance and not any (over)due or other narratives.
I was on Garfield bandwagon, till I saw King Richard. I won’t mind if Garfield wins (or even Benedict), but I think it should be the Fresh Prince.
Bardem? He’s great, but his nomination should have been for “The Good Boss”. Watch that film!
If we talk about nominated performances…
1. Smith
2. Garfield
3. Cumberbatch
4. Bardem
(haven’t seen Washington’s)
If we talk about year’s body of work…
1. Bardem
2. Garfield
3. Smith
4. Cumberbatch
Cumberbatch gave one of the best performances in Louis Wain and the Courier. He was electrifying in Louis Wain. See that one!
regretfully, he also gave that weird Dr. Strange in his most seen film of the year, Spiderman: No Way Home. He felt a bit akward, tonally, with the rest of his performances as the character, in the other MCU films and many have pointed that out…
Holy cow, a Harold Melvin and the Blue Notes throwback.
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So glad you didn’t say Simply Red.
Mick Hucknall was the Ed Sheeran of his day. (That’s not a compliment)
Hahahaha. I appreciated him, but he’s no Teddy P.
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Fans will always push their favorites, but NONE of these are career defining performances.
Best Actress is the weakest of the 4 acting categories
Should and will.
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I don’t think it’s happening. Too many UK voters in the membership body and we don’t know who the fuck Tammy Faye is.
Yet BAFTA gave a win to Tammy Faye in Make Up….hhhmmm not smelling what you’re selling there, billybob.
Chastain is a clear front runner. She gave a lovely SAG speech, that everyone noticed. And now she is showing solidarity in protest for those categories being left off the live show, by skipping the red carpet. She also took the AIDS victim that Tammy Faye worked with as her date to the Oscar Luncheon. BAFTA clearly supported the film by giving it a win, which isn’t nothing.
She’s playing the game just right. If Brits want to remain relevant, they better change there crappy voting systems.
We shall see, Jerm. We shall see.
Didn’t help Carey Mulligan.
The BAFTA voters literally gave Best Actress to McDormand and Mulligan wasn’t even nominated. The Brits were never rallying around that performance, despite Mulligan being a Brit. In a field where no Oscar nominee made the top 2 BAFTA slots, it really is anybody’s game.
My point is that Tammy Faye is not recognisable to international audiences, whereas Lucille Ball decisively is. Stewart’s got no chance because she didn’t even remotely capture Diana. Colman is already Oscared and didn’t get in at BAFTA. Cruz could be the wild card for sure, especially as it seems BAFTA didn’t even bother watching her movie.
You said there’s a big UK influx with the Oscar voters. It didn’t help Carey Mulligan. They chose to give an American her third Oscar.
They didn’t love Mulligan’s performance in PYW, and Mulligan, despite being British, didn’t win. They didn’t even give Mulligan a *nomination* at the BAFTAs. That’s how much they didn’t love her performance.
How is that relevant to the fact Tammy Faye is an unknown entity?
Americans know her, and that’s all that matters.
That’s moronic. Sorry. The Academy is not solely comprised of US voters. And Tammy Faye ain’t no Judy Garland.
After SAG opened up their membership (and close & Davis flubbed), SAG is no longer the predictor it once was in this Category. Especially in a year when Globes and BAFTA went elsewhere. This is clearly a category where anything can still happen.
If you need to believe that to function, go for it. Everyone else knows it’s a done deal.
She did capture princess diana she is a great actress she deserves to win
Lady Gaga , Jodie Comer , Jennifer Hudson , Jennifer Lawrence and Alana Haim should have been the nominees !
Oh dear. Thank heavens no!
Little historical tidbit. In all her thanking, Cher didn’t, by name, thank her director, Norman Jewison. That omission was noticed. The entertainment press picked it up and commented on it the next morning. I’ve always wondered how much the industry noticed, or cared, and whether that snub lingered in the minds of producers, directors, casting directors, etc. when it came to Cher getting roles later. It’s pretty much holy writ: even if you fought with your director on set, especially if you fought with your director on set, if you win a big award, especially an Oscar, you always thank your director.
Maybe I’m the only who was surprised that Cher’s handlers didn’t help her to understand that. Jewison is still alive, still Oscarless (except for the Thalberg Award and maybe he got a Lifetime Achievement). A fine director. Cher should have risen to the moment and thanked him.
And we all know who SHOULD have been nominated.
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