What an incredible year for film 2021 was. When I put together my list of the top 20 films of the year, I ended up cutting ten to fifteen movies that would have made my list in other years. The depth is certainly there, and with films like Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and Dune (among others), there are plenty of films we will be talking about on our best of the decade list in about eight years. Aside from the great films the year bestowed on us, 2021 delivered my sixth venture to Telluride and my first visit to the Middleburg Film Festival. I became a member of the Hollywood Critics Association and attended the Critics’ Choice Awards. To say I am fond of the 2021 film year is a bit of an understatement.
As the 94th Academy Awards ceremony puts a bow on the season, I am grateful for all the hard work that goes into this little world of ours. From the talent that puts movies on the big screen, to festival showrunners, to PR teams that allow early access to films, to the staff at Awards Daily, and, most importantly, for all of you who take the time to read what we write or listen to our podcasts: thank you.
With that, let’s get down to my final predictions in each of the 23 categories. I am going to break these into tiers, starting with the awards I feel are easiest to predict, leading up to the hardest races to call. This is a method often used by fantasy baseball analysts to help gauge position scarcity. While you don’t need to know much about that for Oscar purposes, I thought it might be fun to break down the race in three chapters. With each prediction, I will tell you what I think will win (final prediction), what could win (upset alert!), and what should win (the film/person I feel was the best in their category, regardless if nominated or not). I will also throw in a stat or a fun fact with each prediction.
Savvy?
Hand Them the Oscar Now (Easy tier – aka: don’t overthink it)
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Should Win: Dune
Stats/Analysis: Best Picture nominees rarely lose to non-Picture nominees in this field. Since 1970, the only non-Picture nominee to win Effects over a Best Picture nominee is Ex Machina (2015). Dune is the only Effects nominee with a corresponding nod in Picture. The Visual Effects category has my personal favorite Oscar stat: 18 out of the last 21 Effects winners were also nominated for Art Direction/Production Design. The three exceptions were Spider-Man 2 (2004), Ex Machina (2015), and The Jungle Book (2016). Dune is the only Effects nominee to show up in Production Design. And in case you are still unsure: 13 of the last 16 BAFTA winners have matched Oscar. You guessed it, Dune won BAFTA. Effects should be the easiest call of the night.
Best Sound
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: West Side Story
Should Win: Dune
Stats/Analysis: Before Sound Editing and Sound Mixing merged into an inclusive Sound category, the winner of BAFTA Sound went on to win Sound Editing 62% of the time and Sound Mixing 85% of the time. That’s a combined 73% accuracy rate. Dune won BAFTA Sound this year. The Motion Picture Sound Editors’ top honor is Best Sound Effects and Foley in a feature film. Winners in that category have gone on to win the Oscar 10 times in the last 18 years. Dune won that prize this year. The CAS winner has gone on to win the Oscar 15 times in the last 28 years, including nine of the last 15. Dune won that honor this year. Since 2000, when a music-based film goes up against a non-musical in Sound, the non-musical film wins just over half of the time (six for eleven). West Side Story feels like a potential spoiler, but all signs point to Dune, whose dynamic soundscape remarkably blends music, dialogue, and big action sequences cohesively.
Best Director
Will Win: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Could Win: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Should Win: Denis Villeneuve (Dune, not nominated)
Stats/Analysis: Jane Campion has dominated her field in all the important precursors. Campion won Best Director prizes at Critics’ Choice (CCA), BAFTA, Globes, and most importantly, the Directors Guild (DGA). I’m honestly not sure there is any evidence of who the second most likely to win is. I think it would have been Villeneuve, had he been nominated. But that just goes to show how much of a runaway this category is. DGA is the most accurate precursor, and has only differed from the eventual Oscar winner 9 times in 74 years (88% efficient). After becoming the first female to be nominated for Director twice, Campion will become the third female to win. If Campion were to lose here, there is a good chance The Power of the Dog makes Oscar history… and not in a good way. No film with 12+ Oscar nominations has ever walked away with zero wins. The record for most nominations without winning a single Oscar is 11 (The Color Purple and The Turning Point).
Best Costume Design
Will Win: Cruella
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: Cruella
Stats/Analysis: In the past seven years the Oscar for Costume Design has gone to a Best Picture nominee five times. That might mean that Dune, Nightmare Alley, or West Side Story could steal this category from Jenny Beaven’s incredible work on Cruella. Beaven’s costumes, however, have earned top honors from the Costume Designer’s Guild, CCA, BAFTA, and a variety of critics groups. Since the CCA began handing out prizes in this category in 2009, their winner has lined up with Oscar ten out of twelve times. BAFTA’s winner has done even better in that same period, going eleven for twelve.
Best Actor in a Lead Role
Will Win: Will Smith (King Richard)
Could Win: Andrew Garfield (tick, tick… Boom!)
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon C’mon, not nominated)
Stats/Analysis: Actors who high-five bearded film critics upon winning the CCA have never lost the Oscar in this category. Ok, ok… I don’t know if that’s true, but the time is now for Will Smith. Having had the pleasure of sitting at his table at the CCA, it is impossible not to root for the guy to win. Smith was swarmed by fans all night and was graciously taking in the moment, pausing to take pictures and be silly with anyone who approached him. It felt like genuine appreciation to me. That authenticity pours through in his performance as Richard Williams, father to tennis legends Venus and Serena. Smith has swept the awards season, picking up the Lead Actor award at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), BAFTA, CCA, and Globes. Twenty out of 27 SAG winners for Lead Actor have won again at Oscar, including 14 of the last 16 (Denzel Washington lost in 2016 to Casey Affleck; Chadwick Boseman lost to Anthony Hopkins in 2020). Ten of the last 11 BAFTA winners for Lead Actor went on to win the same category at Oscar (Chiwetel Ejiofor lost to Matthew McConaughey in 2013). Oscar is next.
Best International Feature
Will Win: Drive My Car (Japan)
Could Win: The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Should Win: The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Stats/Analysis: I have an unpopular belief that if you are the only Animated, International, or Documentary film nominated for Best Picture, then you should either be removed from the smaller category or automatically given the award without voting. My logic: you are already deemed the best of your genre if you are the only of your genre to make the top ten films of the year list. How much sense would it make to say Drive My Car is better than Worst Person because it made the top ten films of the year, but is NOT the better International Film? You get what I’m saying? Just give it the Oscar and call it a day. Drive My Car’s Best Picture nomination broke the longest consecutive streak for a non-English language film to be nominated for Best Picture (2018-current – Roma, Parasite, Minari, and Drive My Car). It also became the first Japanese film to crack the Best Picture lineup.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Could Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Should Win: Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)
Stats/Analysis: Kotsur took all the major precursors outside of Globe, where he yielded to what is perhaps his biggest competition, Smit-McPhee. Interestingly enough, SAG and Globe have been the biggest harbingers of things to come in this category in recent years. Out of the last 14 SAG winners for Supporting Actor, 12 went on to win the Oscar (86%). Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) and Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) were the two Globe winners that lost Oscar, with Elba not even nominated. The same amount of Globe winners in that span repeated at Oscar. Sylvester Stallone (Creed) and Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals) lost the Oscar after winning Globe. While that might make things feel like we are in a dead heat, Kotsur is the heart and soul of the film taking the awards circuit by storm. I would not bet against him.
This could go either way (Challenging tier: clear front-runner present, but sneaky underdog exists)
Best Production Design
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Nightmare Alley
Should Win: The French Dispatch (not nominated)
Stats/Analysis: Dune won BAFTA, the Set Decorators Guild (SDSA), and CCA before splitting the Art Directors Guild with Nightmare Alley, it’s fiercest competition. The stats are not pretty for BAFTA, matching with Oscar only seven times in 15 years. SDSA only provides one year of data so far. The CCA is, not surprisingly, the most accurate precursor for this category in recent years, having matched winners for eight consecutive years. What gives me pause is the track record Guillermo del Toro films have in this category. Both Pan’s Labyrinth and The Shape of Water won the Oscar for Production Design. Might Nightmare Alley pull off the same feat? Good opportunity for the Academy to spread the love in what will likely be Nightmare’s only chance to walk away with a statue.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Could Win: Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Should Win: Caitriona Balfe (Belfast, not nominated)
Stats/Analysis: Oscar has matched up with SAG 11 of the last 12 years (Regina King was not nominated – 2018). Ariana DeBose won the four biggest precursors, so why does it feel like she’s not a lock? Aunjanue Ellis, that’s why. Ellis is terrific in King Richard, playing the mother of Venus and Serena Williams with fierce determination. At the Academy Awards luncheon, Ellis received the most rapturous applause. And to spend just a few minutes with her at the CCA I can understand why. She’s full of heart and energy. Impossible not to love and extremely hard to root against. An upset here feels possible, even if not likely.
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Summer of Soul
Could Win: Flee
Should Win: The Rescue (not nominated)
Stats/Analysis: The biggest test for Summer of Soul – a very American film – was with BAFTA, where it went up against Flee – a very international film. I wanted to keep the record-breaking Flee in the lead spot until after the Brits weighed in because, frankly, I didn’t think Flee would lose there. When BAFTA went with Summer of Soul, I followed suit. While Summer of Soul is the clear front-runner – it won PGA, ACE, BAFTA, CCA, NBR, and the majority of critics’ prizes – it seems odd to think Flee will go home empty-handed after setting a record with nominations in Documentary, Animated, and International Feature categories. There are arguments to be made that Animated is its best chance to win, but up against Disney’s Encanto and Netflix’s Mitchells vs the Machines, I think Flee makes its best stand here instead.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Encanto
Could Win: Mitchells vs the Machines
Should Win: Raya and the Last Dragon
Stats/Analysis: No film has won the Animated Feature Oscar without a BAFTA nomination. That would only eliminate my favorite of the group, Raya and the Last Dragon. Disney/Pixar has won this category 13 times in 20 years. While that might make Encanto a slight favorite, there is an ACE Eddies stat that might seem more powerful. Since the ACE Eddies begun awarding Animated Feature films (2009), their winner has matched with Oscar’s Animated Feature winner 11 out of 12 times (The Lego Movie won ACE when the Oscar went to Big Hero Six). This race feels like a coin toss, and when that’s the case, bet on Disney.
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Greig Fraser (Dune)
Could Win: Ari Wegner (The Power of the Dog)
Should Win: Haris Zambarloukos (Belfast, not nominated)
Stats/Analysis: Films winning the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Award have gone on to win the Oscar 16 times in their 32-year history, including 10 times in the last 18 years. Not a lot to gain from that, but it doesn’t hurt Greig Fraser’s chances of winning, does it? Neither does his BAFTA win, where eight of the last nine BAFTA winners matched with Oscar (Nomadland lost to Mank in 2020). Another odd stat that is worth connecting: seven of the last 12 Visual Effects winners also won Cinematography, and as you can see from above, Dune winning Visual Effects feels like the lockiest lock of the night. The spoiler here would be Ari Wegner’s incredible work on The Power of the Dog. Wegner is the second woman in history to receive an Oscar nomination for Cinematography – Rachel Morrison (Mudbound) was the first to be nominated in 2017.
Oscar Pool Winners (Expert tier: this is where you will separate yourself from your rival Oscar predictors. Many of these categories have more than two possible outcomes)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could Win: Dune or Cruella
Should Win: Dune
Stats/Analysis: This category has only been in existence since the 54th Academy Awards (presented for the year 1981), when Rick Baker’s amazing craftsmanship on An American Werewolf in London beat out Stan Winston’s work on Heartbeeps to claim the first statuette for Makeup (another interesting fact to note is that AMPAS pulled the category off the table two years later in 1983, only to reinstate it the following year). Out of the 39 times this award has been handed out, there are 19 years that the Makeup field included a Best Picture nominee. Out of those 19 contests, a non-Best Picture nominee prevailed over a Best Picture nominee eight times. For Tammy Faye to win, it would be the ninth film to do so (Dune is the Picture nom). The Makeup and Hairstyling (MUAH) Guild Award for Best Period and/or Character Make-Up in a Feature-Length Motion Picture has gone on to win the Oscar seven of the last eight years (Bombshell won the Oscar after Joker won the MUAH.) Cruella won MUAH in that category this year. There’s an argument for both Dune and Cruella, but what is the argument for Tammy Faye? Seven of the last 10 BAFTA winners went on to repeat at Oscar, while five of the last six CCA winners matched with Oscar. Tammy Faye won both BAFTA and CCA this year. As you can see, the case can be made for any of the three to win.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Sian Heder (CODA)
Could Win: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) or Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Should Win: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Stats/Analysis: In the last 16 years, the Best Picture winning film also won Screenplay 13 times (81%). It would be a good idea to match up one of Original or Adapted Screenplay with what you predict to win Best Picture. Screenplay prizes have been spread out pretty well on the precursor trail – CODA won WGA and BAFTA, The Power of the Dog won CCA, and The Lost Daughter won the USC Scripter. Those four prizes are the biggest bellwethers for what will win at Oscar. Nine of the last 13 (69%) USC Scripter winners have gone on to win the Academy Award. The WGA has a reliable track record of predicting the Oscar winners, despite the abundant amount of exclusions. WGA Adapted Screenplay winners matched with Oscar in 19 of the last 27 years (70%). CCA has the lowest crossover in the past ten years, lining up with Oscar only three times in the past decade. BAFTA is only slightly better in that time, matching five times in ten years.
Best Live Action Short Film
Will Win: The Long Goodbye
Could Win: It’s the shorts – any of the other four
Should Win: Censor of Dreams (not nominated)
Stats/Analysis: Here’s what you need to know: I went 6-for-15 (40%) calling the short category nominations. I was a field-leading 78% outside of the shorts. So: damn these categories! You are better off throwing a dart most of the time, but if there is one short category this year that feels slightly easy to call, it’s this one. Riz Ahmed wrote and starred in The Long Goodbye, the most timely and powerful of the bunch. The last several moments are especially moving. It’s the one everyone talks about, and I expect Academy members to have a similar reaction.
Best Original Score
Will Win: Hans Zimmer (Dune)
Could Win: Germaine Franco (Encanto) or Jonny Greenwood (The Power of the Dog)
Should Win: Jonny Greenwood (The Power of the Dog)
Stats/Analysis: It might surprise you, but 18 of the last 21 winners for Original Score also had nominations for Best Picture (Frida, 2002; The Hateful Eight, 2015; and Soul, 2020, were the exceptions). That bodes well for Dune, The Power of the Dog, and Don’t Look Up. But… (continued under Original Song)
Best Original Song
Will Win: Lin-Manuel Miranda “Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)
Could Win: Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell “No Time to Die” (No Time to Die) or Beyoncé Knowles-Carter and Dixson “Be Alive” (King Richard)
Should Win: Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell “No Time to Die” (No Time to Die)
Stats/Analysis: (continued from Original Score) …Encanto is the tenth animated film since 1989 to have been nominated for BOTH Original Song and Original Score. Of the previous nine, seven walked away with at least one of the two Oscars, and five of those seven won both categories. It makes sense, then, to pick Encanto to win at least one of the two awards. This is the category that could make Lin-Manuel Miranda an EGOT winner (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony). What gives me pause? The last few years have been dominated by pop stars and rock legends, including H.E.R., Elton John, Lady Gaga, Sam Smith, Common and John Legend, and Adele, two of which won for Bond songs. Will No Time to Die make it three? It’s one of the toughest calls of the night, and Beyonce isn’t making it any easier.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Could Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Should Win: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Stats/Analysis: Another race too close to call. Belfast won CCA and Globes; Licorice Pizza won BAFTA; and Don’t Look Up won WGA. Considering Belfast was ineligible, the WGA going to Don’t Look Up really only hurts Licorice Pizza. Had Belfast been eligible, might it have walked away with WGA, making this a much easier race to predict? We will never know. Here’s why I landed on my favorite movie of the year winning Screenplay: Belfast and The Power of the Dog were the two films that had the best showing on the precursor trail (in terms of nominations). Belfast’s only big miss was Director at BAFTA. The Power of the Dog just missed SAG Ensemble. I cannot see a movie as loved across the board as Belfast going home empty-handed. Or maybe I just don’t want to see it. This is the best shot the Academy has to recognize Kenneth Branagh’s incredible story. I also don’t believe Belfast is out of the Best Picture race. See the stat mentioned in Adapted Screenplay about the correlation Best Picture winners have with writing Oscars.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Could Win: Any of the other four
Should Win: Kristen Stewart (Spencer) or Chastain
Stats/Analysis: What a conundrum this category has been! Kristen Stewart gives the performance of the year, and can’t get a nomination from SAG or BAFTA, nor can she win at the CCA despite winning more acting awards from critics groups than any other actress this year. On the flip side, Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) comes into the race without a single major precursor nod (CCA, Globes, SAG, and BAFTA) and yet seems to be a major threat to win if you ask those who are covering the race by speaking to Academy members. Until Frances McDormand (Nomadland) last year, the last actress to win the Oscar without winning either Globe or SAG was Geraldine Page, who won the Lead Actress Oscar in 1985 for The Trip to Bountiful. SAG wasn’t around yet, and the Globe went to Whoopi Goldberg (The Color Purple) for Drama and Kathleen Turner (Prizzi’s Honor) for Comedy. Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) won the Globe this year (along with Rachel Zegler, not nominated) while Chastain took SAG. Cruz, Kidman, and Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) have already won acting Oscars, while Chastain and Stewart have not. Stewart represents Spencer’s only nomination, while The Eyes of Tammy Faye has a good shot of winning in another category on Oscar night (Hair and Makeup). In a super tight race, I am going with Chastain, who seems the most overdue of the group.
Best Animated Short Film
Will Win: Bestia
Could Win: It’s the shorts – any of the other four
Should Win: Robin Robin
Stats/Analysis: Bestia is the darkest and most disturbing of the short films. If you didn’t see it, let’s just say the main character is very close to her dog. Like its Live Action Short counterpart, Bestia is the one everyone talks about. Whether the reasoning is good or not, it is certainly the most memorable of the group.
Best Documentary Short Subject Film
Will Win: The Queen of Basketball
Could Win: It’s the shorts – any of the other four
Should Win: Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis (not nominated)
Stats/Analysis: Boy did the Academy miss out by snubbing Netflix’s Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis. I hope a producer somewhere sees what I see in the powerful story. A feature film version is needed. Shaquille O’Neal and Steph Curry – two NBA legends – have teamed up to executive produce The Queen of Basketball. It’s an intriguing story with a lovable central figure – Lusia Harris – the first (and only) woman to be officially drafted in the NBA. Harris recently passed away on January 18th, which adds a layer of sentimentality for those who follow along or learn more about her.
Best Film Editing
Will Win: Joe Walker (Dune)
Could Win: Pamela Martin (King Richard) or Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum (tick, tick… Boom!)
Should Win: Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum (tick, tick… Boom!)
Stats/Analysis: King Richard and tick, tick… Boom! recently won the biggest prize from ACE (Editors Guild). One of the two ACE winners has gone on to win the Oscar 22 times in the last 30 years, so those two films are, naturally, the frontrunners here. The BAFTA winner usually has a decent track record of repeating at Oscar, but this year’s winner (No Time to Die) somehow missed being nominated for the Oscar (as did the CCA winner, West Side Story). Sports movies do pretty well in the Film Editing category. Previous winners include The Pride of the Yankees (1942), National Velvet (1945), Body and Soul (1947), Champion (1949), Grand Prix (1966), Rocky (1976), Raging Bull (1980), and Ford v Ferrari (2019). However, one of the more interesting Oscar stats since the inception of the preferential ballot is the connection between Sound and Film Editing. In that time (since 2009), the Film Editing winner has been nominated in Sound all twelve years. Over that stretch, the Editing winner also won at least one Sound category nine times. Of those nine times, it won both Sound categories five times (last year was the only time in that span that Sound was one category). You have to go back to The Departed (2006) to find the last Editing winner to not be nominated in either Sound category. This year, only The Power of the Dog and Dune overlap.
Best Picture
Will Win: CODA
Could Win: The Power of the Dog or Belfast
Should Win: Belfast
Stats/Analysis: I’m pretty sure I’ve never been this uncertain about what will win Best Picture. Usually by this time, we have it figured out, or at the very least we have it down to two films. Let’s breakdown the three frontrunners.
CODA’s surge began with it winning SAG. It really was a great choice for Ensemble, even if it wouldn’t have been my own. Winning Screenplay at BAFTA, however, was a little more surprising – especially over the presumed frontrunner, and eventual BAFTA Best Picture winner, The Power of the Dog. By then we were pretty certain it was winning WGA, where it’s three biggest competitors, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, and Drive My Car, were all ineligible. Many of us had our sights on the Producers Guild (PGA). The PGA has matched the Oscar for Best Picture in 22 of its 32 years, and 11 out of the last 14. The PGA uses a preferential balloting system that’s similar to that used by AMPAS. In the preferential ballot era, no precursor has had more influence on the Best Picture race than the PGA, where its winners have gone on to win the Oscar nine out of twelve years. When CODA won PGA, it became the clear frontrunner to win Picture at Oscar. Only two films have won the top prize from both PGA and SAG and not gone on to win Best Picture – Apollo 13 (1995) and Little Miss Sunshine (2006). CODA will be the third if it loses. Belfast and The Power of the Dog received Screenplay nominations from the Golden Globes, while CODA did not. An interesting stat on that: in 45 of the past 51 years of Globes and Oscar history the eventual Best Picture winner received a Globe nomination for Screenplay. The last Best Picture winner without a Globe Screenplay nom was Million Dollar Baby (2004). Eleven of the last thirteen Picture winners stopped at Telluride. While Belfast and The Power of the Dog did, CODA did not. It would join The Hurt Locker and Green Book if it were to win.
The Power of the Dog won DGA, the next most reliable precursor after PGA. The DGA winner’s movie has won Best Picture 56 times in 74 years (76%). If The Power of the Dog were to win, it would be the fifth to do so without a SAG Ensemble nom, joining Braveheart (1995), The Shape of Water (2017), Green Book (2018), and Nomadland (2020). While that used to be unheard of, it would be the fourth time it has occurred in the last five years. What is even more odd about it missing SAG is The Power of the Dog is the first film to earn four acting nominations at the Oscars without the Ensemble nomination. SAG merged with AFTRA in 2012, and since then, the Ensemble stat seems to matter less and less.
With Belfast’s Picture and Original Screenplay nominations, Kenneth Branagh has now been nominated in seven different categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, and Live Action Short. For Belfast to win, it would need to be the third film in 25 years to do so without winning at least one of PGA, DGA, or SAG, joining Braveheart and Moonlight (2016). Until Birdman (2014), Ordinary People (1980) was the last film to win Best Picture without an Editing nom. Belfast would be just the 11th film to win Picture without an Editing nom.
So there it is. The 13th annual Oscar predictions manifesto is completed (and in just under 5000 words!) Thank you all for engaging with me on here and on social media, and for reading my work this year.
What are your thoughts on the race? Which of my predictions do you agree/disagree with?
Ooh, Coda and Belfast are so white, heterosexuell people, hope they win
I saw CODA yesterday and there is no way this film isn’t winning. POTD winning would be a real upset.
Glad to hear I’m not the only one who’s still aggravated (OK, OK, “seriously pissed off” would more be accurate) that Balfe didn’t get a nomination.
Forever.
I think I’m tempted to change my BActress prediction from Chastain to Cruz I think we’re making too much of this overdue narrative and it’s going to end up a Colman vs. Close situation.
I keep seeing that yet some differences. Colman had won Globe and Critic’s Choice (in comedy) and the BAFTA and in a Best Picture nominee. She was always much closer to winning than it seemed, just overwhelmed by the “it’s Close’s time” talk.
Different here as Chastain didn’t really have much buzz until the SAGs whereas Cruz’s movie only one other nomination and her winning would shatter so many precedents like no SAG nom first. Leaning toward her more now yet still a chance any of the other four get it, it’s been a wild race.
Great recap ! Thank you Mark
Thank you for reading!!
Excellent Mark. I realize why the very tame CODA will win. People want a feel good movie in shitty times. We’e seen it before and will again : ) love your writing btw
Thank you so much! I think you are right. Dark times, the last couple years have been. A bright film like CODA (or Belfast damn it!!) makes sense.
The Oscars are about money and politics. I want Cruz to win because she gave the best performance, but more importantly, I want her to win because I put a lot of money on her.
With the exceptions of Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby (interestingly enough, both are Eastwood movies), the Best Picture winner has always won the PGA or one of the two WGA’s. The Power of the Dog won neither, which is why I’m going with CODA.
Wow, Belfast or Coda, white actors only, very rare, congs on that, no blacks or fags, has Sasha whined about it?
Power of the dog and Dune, most boring movies of last year, had To walk out, House of Cucci should have been honest camp or trash, Parellel mothers, dissapointment of the year, West side story, useless remake, original Nightmare alley 4star classic, no need to watch remake, Will Smith boycotted Oscars some years ago, cause was not nominated, luckily have not seen any of his “movies”, Drive my car, Flee and Worst person In the world Best movies.
Oh, I warched tick, tick.. Movie maybe 10 minutes, no thanks, just garbage.
Not to spam this, but found this checking out the Best Actress thread (part 85, page 19th, 1st message) on GoldDerby forums…
(please don’t kill the messenger… the race doesn’t seem to be even close, if this is true and an accurate representation of the AMPAS feel)
Which would mean that AMPAS members are actually watching Parallel Mothers and impressed by Cruz. Even on a preferential ballot, Cruz would win, in the first round, right away, with 14 #1 over 10-11 of all other contenders combined. Let’s see on Sunday night, but now I understand why so many experts are changing to Cruz as well, as they also did, last minute, to predict a nomination for her, against all stats.
Chastian is an ultra weak frontrunner that only has SAG-AFTRA to go by. Untelevized GG and Pundit Choice doing punditry over actual awarding don’t matter. Her movie is terrible, it was a boxoffice and streaming flop, and last year showed that there’s part of AMPAS that’s resisting 101 baits in fatsuit/fatface. Doesn’t mean she will lose but win isn’t guaranteed at all. There’s obviously a movement in favor of Cruz cause the best performance of nominees and actual good movie that isn’t inaccessible.
I hope you prevail.
Chastain lost the GG btw.
yes but I don’t take that award into consideration one way or the other this time around.
Big deal
I’ve long been saying that Chastain or Kidman are not plausible winners. I thought Stewart might prevail but it could very well be Cruz.
another factor… the Museum of the AMPAS is having an exhibition with Almodovar, on voting time. So the very same AMPAS is in some way, promoting “Parallel Mothers” right away.
It’s the most natural performance I’ve seen in years. An effort-less trip to the deepest emotions. It would be more a win for the Academy than for Cruz herself.
For the record… I am going to officially switch my Lead Actress guess to Penélope Cruz, after checking out the Experts’ change in GoldDerby yesterday. I was betting on Chastain, but always pending on the fact if Cruz’s performance has been widely seen or not. There are signs that yes, there’s passion in Hollywood about her performance, and word of mouth may have worked. So now betting for the upset…
Set of guesses:
Picture – The Power of the Dog
Direction – Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Actress – Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Actor – Will Smith, King Richard
S. Actress – Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
S. Actor – Troy Kotsur, CODA
Original Screenplay – Belfast
Adapted Screenplay – The Power of the Dog
Animated – Encanto
Documentary – Summer of Soul (or when the Revolution couldn’t be televised)
International – Drive my car
Score – Dune
Song – No Time to Die, from No Time to Die
Cinematography – Dune
Production Design – Dune
Costume – Cruella
Film Editing – Dune
Sound – Dune
VFX – Dune
Make Up and Hairstyle – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Animated Short – Bestia
Live Action Short – The Long Goodbye
Documentary Short – Audible
Watching “Don’t Look Up” for a 4th time. One piece of brilliant editing, the film’s titles cue when Jennifer Lawrence is beginning to puke, with a frozen frame. Your eyes see “Don’t Look Up” but your brain warns you “Don’t Throw Up” (for the implications of the story you’re about to see). It’s really the most underrated film of the year, despite its awards success (most just judge by the surface of this film, and I was to blame as well, as I wasn’t convinced on a first viewing). This film is becoming my new “The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou”, which I hated on first viewing and now I love.
When they enter the building of “The Daily Rip”, again subtle editing and a shot of a catering entering as well, with fresh meat…
Halfway through the film… man, this will be THE FILM OF THE YEAR, when years go by and shit hit the fan, even harder than already is. It’s a retelling – to perfection – of our disastrous present and how it cooked and started boiling, just through an allegory.
I like it way more than most people here, by the way. (Not sure if we’ve discussed it at any point, post-unblocking.) It’s in my provisional top 10. I’m not at all surprised it’s so rewatchable for you, too – it’s maybe the one I’m most excited to rewatch, out of what I’ve seen so far this year.
Belfast??? One of the worst directed movies I have seen for years. And what about movies like “LAST NIGHT IN SOHO” which really tell a story via pure film narration. No nomination for such a ride through cinema history? To me this year is a mess for cinema movies. CODA ist a remake and more a TV than a screen-movie. The best about BELFAST isn´t even nominatetd: Caitriona Balfe. NIGHTMARE ALLEY instead of THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD? The Oscars are killing themselves by following the critics semi arthouse circus.
While CODA is definitely a strong prediction, and I would not argue with anyone predicting it, I’m still going with The Power of the Dog for the following reasons.
1. CODA would be super duper hugely statbusting. And that just doesn’t tend to happen, historically. This may be the year that it does, sure, but I still can’t bet on so many strong stats falling in a single year.
2. All the recent love for CODA has either been in Acting or Screenplay, other than the PGA which is all producers. We haven’t heard from craftspeople at all, who have chosen not to nominate it in any category at the Oscar, BAFTA or the guilds. I don’t think you can win Best Picture with that little below-the-line support.
3. Despite all its weakness, The Power of the Dog is still the BAFTA winner, Globe winner, BFCA winner, DGA winner, and the film with the most nominations. Based on fundamentals, it would be a surprise if it lost.
I agree… the flotation line of The Power of the Dog, its main weaknesses are two…
1) Seems respected rather than actually loved with the kind of passion that fuels a Best Picture winner
2) Streaming services – bias by AMPAS. This one also affects CODA, by the way.
The film that mostly survives these two factors is Belfast, closely followed by King Richard. CODA may be 4th, hipothetically, after these two… but I agree that CODA can win and may be really close to The Power of the Dog at this point.
the thing with Cruz remains… if they are going to see ALL five nominees, she’s easily the one that stands out the most as the role every actor would like to have and shine in… ORIGINAL, RAW, NOT DEPENDING ON PROSTHETICS, STUNTS OR REAL LIFE BACKSTORY. There are 3 celebrities impersonations and Colman plays a non- original character (The Lost Daughter is an adaptation). Cruz is playing a role almost designed for her, and if the film was in english, the race would have been over since Venice (I think that’s clear by now, that despite all the hurdles, and the wide open race, she actually managed the nomination in the last minute, thanks to passion of people who have seen her performance). Therefore, it’s Chastain, then Cruz, depending on how many people actually saw her performance. The rest can win, too, but I think are all behind the other two, and the opening of the envelope is going to be a nail-biter.
Well said.
I wonder, how many of the people that say that Cruz is #5th, have actually seen the performance, or if they have seen it, and say that can’t because they think not enough have seen her performance… because I doubt they would say that, because they would find her undeserving…
… that is, unless they’re spanish. A recent bit of news in Spain, about Cruz and Bardem making history with these nominations, labelled them as “the most hated couple in Spain”. Which is probably true, by the way… the conservatives and the extreme right – almost the same thing, here – hate both of them with passion and treat with disbelief every single accolade they get.
So the extreme right is every bit as stupid and venal in Spain as they are in the US? Why am I not surprised?
we never got rid of it. It remained in power. We have a fake democracy, once you really analyze it, it’s pretty much obvious.
added: just checked out GoldDerby’s experts predictions…
there were 8 updates for Best Lead Actress on March 24th… 4 of them have switched to Penélope Cruz as winner. And I hardly think they have read my posts… I am more inclined to think, they have talked with AMPAS members…
Gold Derby is the other site I visit often for a over a decade now. I saw what you saw and that’s why I agreed with your findings. I hope Cruz wins. Let see what happens.
In most of the leaked ballots people are voting for her. Many people say that AMPAS members are saying they have voted for her.
https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vdGhlLWF3YXJkaXN0/episode/OWY1OGM5NDAtYTk2Ni0xMWVjLWE0OGQtNmIzNTUwYjNiMjVl?hl=es-419&ved=2ahUKEwjVstaVrtn2AhXwKEQIHXBKArgQjrkEegQIAhAF&ep=6
Min 23:40
If she wins it’s gonna be EPIC
Congrats to Scott Mantz at Gold Derby for predicting CODA to win Best Picture…WITH NO OTHER CHOICES in order following it. Robert Zimmerman said it best…
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d14b490600f10e34bbf2d4defc45146c1a1fa3efccfc3ad0f09ce9c84440a61d.jpg
In the past decade three BP winners lost Screenplay. But they all won the PGA. Two of them The Artist and Nomadland won an acting Oscar. POTD has lost the PGA. It is also not winning an acting Oscar. Campion probably has to win Screenplay. But will the Academy give her two Oscars? If The Lost Daughter wins Adapted Screenplay who does it hurt more?
This will not happen, as Daughter will not beat a BP nominee.
Great point! Million Dollar Baby in 2005 is the last BP winner to not win the PGA or the WGA. In fact, Unforgiven is the only other one in the PGA era. (So, ever…) Another big clue that CODA was winning.
And remember both the Eastwood movies won acting Oscars.
Yup – and, when SAG was available (for Million Dollar Baby), SAG acting awards. Another thing Dog didn’t win.
SAG acting does not matter. ‘Nomadland’ did not win any Sag award. But it did win an acting Oscar. I think that the day is probably not far where a movie only wins BP and BD. Nothing else.
“‘Nomadland’ did not win any Sag award. But it did win an acting Oscar.”
Gladiator and The English Patient are the other two BP winners in the SAG era to not win any SAG acting awards but win an acting Oscar, nonetheless…
No, it does matter – it’s not a must-win, of course, but then again nothing is. Not even PGA or WGA. (Individually, but, given that we have 2 exceptions, not even together, not quite. It requires more winning opportunities for it to get to 100%. Like in the PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG/ACE win stat. Or another one I mention below.) But it’s an important part of the path. BP winners do tend to win a SAG acting award. It’s 14-14 all-time. (14 did, 14 didn’t.) More importantly, they tend to win either SAG acting or SAG Ensemble, so, for those that don’t win ensemble (like Dog), it’s definitely pretty important. 21/28 BP winners in the SAG era won either ensemble or an acting award at SAG. 75%. The percentage is basically the same since the AFTRA merger – 7/9 = 77%. Nomadland and The Shape of Water being the exceptions.
By the way, the BAFTA/GG/DGA/WGA rule remains on 100%. Since CODA won the WGA. Had Belfast or King Richard won, for instance, this rule would have had its first exception ever. (For NBR/GG/DGA/WGA, the lone exception remains Hamlet, in 1949.) Evidently, Dog winning would not have been an issue.
CODA does become the first movie since A Beautiful Mind to not win any awards from NBR/NYFCC/LAFCA (or NSFC, for that matter), the first since Crash to not win any above the line awards from those groups and the first since Argo to not win at least two such. (Not including special awards.) Makes me not feel so bad about sticking with Belfast for so long, in spite of that rule. (The one about not winning two.)
“I think that the day is probably not far where a movie only wins BP and BD. Nothing else.”
This is only a bit unlikely because it’s so rare for something to win BD but nothing else (excluding picture). But, with the preferential, this and other weird combos are always a possibility, like I’ve said before. Nomadland almost did this – surely McDormand was close to losing! I guess The Power of the Dog might not have been very close to the BP win this year, given that it lost cinematography and score (and screenplay and supporting actor, etc.) and other categories it might have won, in addition to director – but we can’t be sure. It might have been close…
Also CODA joins Crash, Spotlight and The Hurt Locker to win the Oscar BP after drawing a blank at the Golden Globes. So after 2004 the Globes lost some of their importance in terms of the BP Oscar winner HAVING to win something there. Before Crash I am not sure when it last happened that the BP Oscar winner drew a blank at the Golden Globe Awards in terms of winning something. It did not happen in the 1990s and 1980s.
Right, good point! Another exception to that rule… Of course, this year there’s an excuse – the Globes being cancelled, their influence was minimized.
From memory, I think the most recent apart from these 3 might be The Sting (1973).
Also interesting that Silence Of The Lambs won just one Golden Globe for Jodie Foster. Of course it won the five top Oscar prizes.
Definitely one of the stranger outcomes – the Globes were the only TV precursor, back then.
And the Oscar race was not being followed like it is today. It was broadcast live in fewer countries back in 1991.
Predictions (not my personal choices but predictions on how the Academy will choose)
Picture: CODA
Director: Campion
Actress: Chastain
Actor: Smith
Sup. Actor: Kotsur
Sup. Actress: DeBose
Adap. Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
Orig. Screenplay: Belfast
Animated: Machines
Foreign: Drive My Car
The last BP winner to lose Screenplay was The Artist a decade ago. Since 1990 I think only seven movies that won the Oscar BP have lost Screenplay including Titanic which was not nominated and Million Dollar Baby.
Please don’t remind me of the artist. 2011 was a rough year for cinema.
I think you mean the Oscars, because there was The Tree of Life and A Separation in that year.
Shape of Water lost screenplay.
ooof 3 billboards
I think it lost to Get Out.
Right! A great winner. I guess I still can’t believe it.
Because rational people could not get beyond the film’s illogic of having to wait until it rains so the viaduct would fill up so they could go dump Fishman. EVEN THOUGH THEY LIVED IN BALTIMORE, a coastal town!
I’ve sometimes wondered what life was like for her under the sea with Fishman. The sex must have been really great. Just because she was mute, the script gave her NO dreams, aspirations, hopes or talents she could develop on land. So, Fishman socks it to her and — POW! — she goes all glassy-eyed and decides to live with him in the ocean.
What did they do down there? Couldn’t read, because a book’s pages would get wet. No electricity, so no radio, movies or TV. Only the occasional whale or submarine passing by. Lots of slithery, irritating sea creatures sliding across the skin. And at night, total inky darkness — no candles could burn down there. So, what did they do? Get jiggy with it. A lot. It must have grown exhausting — for her.
I imagine an eventual exchange something like this. Fishman: “Come here, Snookums, let’s get down again, for the 6,000th time.” She: “Get you fins off me. I have a headache. Go up to the surface and get me some aspirin, in a water-tight bottle, please. And while you’re up there, see if you can locate a couple of divorce lawyers. We’re going to need them. You and I are washed up.”
That script is beyond fanboy dummmmm
I emphatically agree. It just made no sense. Though I thought Spencer was quite good, also Stuhlbarg. And, yes, definitely, I thought the set design was out of this world amazing. I’ve never seen anything like it, coupled with the lighting design that set it off so stunningly. Truly remarkable stuff. His set design again excelled in Nightmare Alley, but otherwise, when it comes to that movie . . . oh, heck, I’d rather not go into it. I suppose logic isn’t Del Toro’s strong point.
Nomadland…
the father is so so good, and Nomadland was barely scripted
Yes, and that’s why it lost to the Father.
I forgot. That makes it nine times BP lost screenplay.
You’re not correct but Screenplay will indeed decide Best Picture this year. I don’t fancy The Power of The Dog’s chances because Screenplay goes with acting more often than it does with director.
It’s 3 vs. 3 in the last 12 years.
Writing/directing – Parasite, Birdman, The Hurt Locker
Writing/acting – Green Book, Moonlight, 12 Years a Slave
Coda is following the writing/acting route. Three Oscars.
Is it Monday already? 🙂
You’re right and maybe that’s more telling for Best Picture. However, I was talking in general that acting whether at the Oscars or SAG, often goes with Screenplay. But maybe that’s unfair since there’s two categories for Screenplay and just one director.
Right. Not fair.
I’m just looking for small clues and would have liked to have been the other way around. I just think it slightly favours acting. I really hope I’m wrong
To add… in the last 12 years (pref era), 6 BPs won without acting, 6 with.
That’s a more helpful stat, but it still seems acting and Screenplay are the closest combination.
As pointed out, evidently not. Especially since screenplay has potentially 10 slots.
I think you’re limiting to just BP winners. Rather than looking at general combination of acting and Screenplay.
And this is important because whoever wins Screenplay will likely win Best Picture.
CODA needs it more than Dog. It *must* win AS in order to have a chance. I don’t remember when the last time a BP winner won w/o either screenplay or director. Dog already has a BD cushion.
Okay, then. To be fair, we should judge each screenplay category versus director.
In the last 12 years, director/acting happened 5 times. Adapted screenplay/acting 4 times. Original screenplay 4 times.
It might seem more to you because there are two screenplay categories.
Yes, that’s probably true. It looks even more if you add SAG and films with strong acting better.
Besides, are we so certain that CODA will win screenplay? Not enough clue to know one way or another.
Not certain at all but u think the pull of acting win is stronger and that probably gives it the edge.
The acting *win* with screenplay wins seem arbitrary and inconclusive. Why not look at acting nominations in correlation with BP win?
In the last 12 years,
98 films won BP that had multiple acting nominations. Only34 won with 1 or less (Nomadland, Parasite, Argo, The Hurt Locker).Edited in bold.
But those three films were much stronger than their competitors and wre certainly clear favourites. This year is different and Coda clearly has a big support from the actors.
Wait, I misread that. That proves your point. The exceptions were much stronger than CODA, so you might be on yo something there. However, this hasn’t been a normal year so CODA could easily break them all. We are looking at stats proof contender this year. We’ll find put on Sunday.
One or two stats can be fallen in a year, but half a dozen or so? I still have a hard time believing that it will break them all, much less “easily”.
Last year Nomadland could afford to lose Screenplay because it had won acting and Screenplay did go to a film that rhat also won acting.
This is also why Don’t Look Up isn’t winning Original Screenplay. Since they have had only two categories, only four fimns have won Screenplay without acting or directing. Belfast has won more precursors and has the strongest film at the Oscars The strongest film usually wins and that’s clearly Belfast. PTA’s chances went downhill after losing WGA. I feel it wasn’t just a rejection of PTA but perhaps a deliberate boost for Branagh?
And o mean to add that Licorice Pizza has no acting either. Don’t Look Up at least had SAG Ensemble and maybe that’s why it won WGA instead if LP.
The last was Nomadland last year. Before that, The Shape of Water 4 years ago.
Aargh….The Artist. One of the worst BP winners of the 2010’s. Moneyball was a more palpable choice in 2011. An Uwe Boll movie was more preferable to The Artist.
Titanic didn’t deserve a screenplay nomination. James Cameron is a hell of a director, and I definitely appreciate the work he’s done over the past 20+ years regarding the actual Titanic, but he had a totally tin ear where dialogue is concerned. Way too many lines come off as stagey in a bad way (not the actors’ fault), and I swear, “I’d rather be his whore than your wife” is equivalent to nails on a chalkboard to me. Sorry, Jim…
Congrats to Scott Mantz at Gold Derby for predicting CODA to win Best Picture…WITH NO OTHER CHOICES in order following it. Robert Zimmerman said it best…
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d14b490600f10e34bbf2d4defc45146c1a1fa3efccfc3ad0f09ce9c84440a61d.jpg
Best Picture is clearly down to 2 digital videos: CODA and TPOTD. Too close to call for me.
Mark, thanks for having my six in saying 2021 was a very good year for film (me: vastly better than the last 2. I have confidence the Oscar ratings will go up sunday. It just sucks that due to this decision to have these 8 categories handed out off-air, folks will miss Dune winning 4 or 5 of them live.
Really sucks for Dune. Villeneuve must be seething, and rightly so.
i really thought the Academy would cave by now, but this order came down from ABC itself, IIRC.
Yeah, I heard the same thing. ABC demanded that it come in shorter. Odd, bc they can get in more ads the longer the show runs. But I heard that on the East Coast a late-running show, past 11:30pm, just wasn’t cutting it with the business crowd, who have to get up in the morning. And advertisers paying high Oscar night rates want their ads seen, not nodded off to.
Yeah, I heard the same thing. ABC demanded that it come in shorter. Odd, bc they can get in more ads the longer the show runs. But I heard that on the East Coast a late-running show, past 11:30pm, just wasn’t cutting it with the business crowd, who have to get up in the morning. And advertisers paying high Oscar night rates want their ads seen, not nodded off to.
Last year the problem was that the Red Carpet viewership was wayyy down. The challenge starts there. If fewer people watched the Red Carpet it does not matter what the length of the show is.
It’s interesting that earlier in the season it was Dog vs. Belfast. And since Belfast fell aside, it’s now Dog vs. CODA.
Can anyone think of similar seasons in the past? Where a perceived frontrunner had to battle two different challengers at different junctures?
ASIB vs ROMA. ROMA vs Green Book. GB wasn’t taken seriously until it won something I don’t remember what. ASIB was a big pundit fave to win.
ASIB fell at the nominations phase and Green Book was always in contention and was more of real challenger and won GG. The pundits overhyped ASIB but it fell after nominations.
Pundits overhype a movie?? Wow. I haven’t seen them do that since Power of the Benji.
In what way is it overhyped? Or are you now making up your reality?
Since the beginning of award season all the pundits have said Benji in a walk. That’s over hyping. Not once did I hear wait till they get to Hollywood to see what the industry has to say. This is classic Roma buffoonery again. The pundits have egg on their face and they’re angry
think you mean Belfast was overhyped. Roma wasn’t overhyped. It just fell short, that’s all. The Power of The Dog is still in there with a big shout and hasn’t fallen short yet. I don’t think films that are that close to winning are what I would describe as overhyped. It’s called a near miss. And CODA was under hyped because it did so badly in nominations phase. In fact, historically bad. It missed pretty much everywhere and only got three nominations. No rational person would have predicted CODA would be favourite for Best Picture at this stage of the race. No. Rational. Person.
Actually, I never heard the hysteria about Belfast that I did about Dog. Once CODA won the SAG award, everyone kept trying to rationalize how it didn’t matter to Dog. Even after it lost the Bafta screenplay to CODA, which was the turning point, Dog was still everyone’s pick. They refused to listen to the drum beats, and they refused to see the ground sinking beneath their feet. In fact, many are clinging to their stats. But Dog supporters are Jack, while CODA is Rose, floating on the door to glory.
It seems to me you can’t tell the difference between pundits hype and stats based on key nominations. If you follow the stats The Dog was rightly the favourite until it lost the PGA. That’s what people who follow the stats do and many of them were far from fans of The Power of The Dog. It was the stats and it changed when CODA won PGA, added to its wins at BAFTA and WGA.
I understand about following the stats, but Dog has been one of those classic examples like social network, boyhood, roma, the revenant, etc that the moment you see them, you know they will be contenders but will never win. They will never be the academy’s taste. And it took a literal house (the PGA) to drop on the pundits heads to get them to wake up. And even now, some are still clinging to their stats saying Dog will win. They refuse to read the room.
The Social Network and Boyhood never won the DGA and their main rivals that year won the triple crown. The Revenant wasn’t really close because it had big stats against it. And more importantly, only Roma was stats favourite in its year and was still the favourite going into the Oscar night. The Dog didn’t miss a single thing and its opponents were not even close until CODA beat it to the PGA and BAFTA.
Dog did miss a thing…a crucial thing…A BEATING HEART. That’s why no matter how many awards it piled up, it will still never will BP.
Oh dear. Are you seriously going to say that all Best Picture winners had a “heart”, even in preferential era? That’s ridiculous! Akso, many films with “heart” have lost before.
Absolutely not. The Departed didn’t, but that had a debt owed. You can’t be a cineastes delight anymore and expect to win.
Isn’t weird that this “heart”didnt seem to be ab issue during nominations phase and only seems to affect the guilds but not other major precursors? And it’s not just The Departed which had kinda happy ending. The Power of The is closest to No Country For Old. And even Parasite had a grim ending and yet it still won beating a film that a more uplifting ending. I think you’re just making things up now. They will award what they like and we’ll see on Sunday what that is for this year’s Best Picture.
Don’t you DARE try and equate Dog to No Country, the best film so far this century. Country had a moral beating heart in Ed Tom Bell.
Calm your ass down! I was comparing how it left the audience asking lots if questions and the bad guy getting away scot free. And what about George in The Power of The Dog? Or even Rose?
George and Rose were the most boring couple in the world. She was a self-pitying drunk, while he had no personality and tended to disappear for long stretches of time. If I want to see that, I can just watch my next door neighbors.
Both actors who played those two characters were nominated. In fact, The Power of The Dog has four acting nominations which hiw much they liked the acting. You don’t nominate first timers unless their performances and roles aren’t good enough. The Academy knows more about than you. Or are you going to change your tune when you disagree with them to suit your argument?
[I am so looking forward to the hour after TPotD wins BP.]
Now that’s entertainment! Right here! 🙂
Dunst and Cumberbatch absolutely deserved nominations. The two supporting actors were underwhelming, with Plemons nomination falling into the same pit of disbelief as Dench over Balfe.
Funny that ASIB got 8 nods and yet got deflated after the nominations because it missed both director and editing. But look at CODA. Ironic, isn’t it?
Yes, that’s true. This is some turn around to sa the least. The claim that CODA wasn’t seen until recently doesn’t wash with me. I think SAG awards helped big time because it put Kotsur and the rest of the filmmakers on TV and that’s boosted it. I think it’s beyond love for the film.
Dune is going to have itself a night, huh? I have to think that it will end up missing in one of the supposed slam-dunk categories. Cinematography, perhaps?
Also, I don’t think enough weight is being given to the idea of McKay getting his second Oscar. Maybe he’s even the very narrow favorite, given Academy love. He’s going to be right there with Branagh/PTA.
Cineamtography is a good bet cause it’s usually related to Director and that’s wrapped up for Campion, sadly.
Actually, cinematography is very often connected with visual effects (“Avatar”, “Hugo”, “Inception”, “Blade Runner 2049”, “1917”, “Gravity” etc.) and “Dune” wins ‘visual effects’ so…
lets go Dune!
The stats say The Power of The Dog since Dune doesn’t have BD. Visual Effects is coincidence since all those had BD as well, except for Blade Runner, of course.
I know that Dune won’t win.
All the winners you listed and the others you didn’t have had BD nominations except for the special circumstances of Blade Runner 2049 (an open campaign to help Deakins win his first Oscar). Ari Wegner is the statistical favourite based on previous winners. But as we have seen this year the stats don’t hold up, at least when it comes to women filmmakers. And no woman has ever won this award and only two have even been nominated in Oscar history.
Film Editing is a giant cluster****. I thought Joe Walker would have this in the bag, but a different non-Dune winner has popped up everywhere. So I think votes will be VERY spread out and genuinely any of the 5 could win it.
Lead Actress seems like Chastain but…Stewart basically didnt campaign much at all pre-nominations. Then once she was Oscar nominated she started doing interviews and came off as charming and genuinely surprised and excited by the nom. In a field where none of these women are in a BP nominee, could this last minute effort push her ahead? I’m still with Chastain, but it’ll be close I think. Stewart might have surged at just the right time.
The only place where I disagree with Mark is Bestia taking Animated Short. I know know, ANYTHING can happen in those categories. But this category has consistently gone very family friendly, fun, and heartwarming: Paperman, Mr Hublot, Feast, Piper, Dear Basketball Bao. But then of course, they did go more serious last year with If Anything Happens I Love You which dealt with extreme grief…Ok maybe Betia could take it? But Robin, Robin is so cute and sitting right there?
My night would be made infinitely happier if either Chastain or Stewart wins. I think they both would be deserving. All 5 would, but i have a special affection for the other two,
going by secret ballots, which are very imprecise sample, Cruz has a passionate support. She’s beating the crap out of her competition. However, she also has the uphill battle cause her movie is subtitled so some will skip it, sadly. I think Chastain, as weak a frontrunner as she is, will win by a fake eyelash.
Encanto is a fine Animated Feature winner; it’s a shame that it will feel like a perfunctory Disney award because they’ve given it to meh Disney movies like Soul in other years.
Yep, it’s a Disney name check, nothing more. They awarded uninspired animation such as Brave and Soul that way (Disney Pixar name check).
Ok, I am feeling pretty good, Mark. Our only difference is in one short category and Song, and I think it is very close between Encanto and No Time to Die. I don’t have Bestia.
I have to admire Sasha’s persistence. If I needed a defense lawyer I would hire her.
The way she includes Belfast into the three-way battle for Best Pic is, well, persistent.
I don’t know if you’ve noticed this, but this isn’t a post from Sasha. This is a post from Mark, and his love for Belfast is certainly legitimate and dating back to Telluride.
oops
My predictions, with my personal choice in the brackets.
Picture: CODA (Dune)
International Feature Film: Drive My Car
Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul (Writing with Fire)
Animated Feature: Encanto
Actor: Will Smith
Actress: Jessica Chastain
Supporting Actress: Ariana Debose
Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur
Director: Jane Campion, TPOD (Denis Villeneuve Dune – not nominated)
Original Screenplay: Belfast
Adapted Screenplay: CODA (Dune or Drive My Car)
Film Editing: Dune
Original Score: Dune
Original Song: No time to Die (Dos Oruguitas – Encanto)
Sound: Dune (West Side Story)
Visual Effects: Dune
Cinematography: Dune
Production Design: Dune
Makeup and Hairstyling: The eyes of Tammy Faye
Costume Design: Cruella (West Side Story)
Live Action Short Film: The Long Goodbye
Animated Short Film: Robin Robin (The Windshield Wiper)
Documentary Short Film: The Queen of Basketball (Audible)
We agree on EVERYTHING except Picture. Having said that, I’m like 51/49 split for TPOTD. So close.
All I want this year is for Dos Oruguitas to win for best Song. That song made me cry and smile <3 I will be happy with the rest
Well then I am TOTALLY rooting for your picks!!!
Making my Oscar menu – help!
Dune – Spice cake?
Power of the Dog – Fried chicken?
CODA – Fish?
Drive My Car – Sushi? Ramen?
Don’t Look Up – Cocktail
King Richard – ???
Licorice Pizza – licorice? pizza?
Belfast – Guinness
Nightmare Alley – Red/Green Cocktail
West Side Story – ???
King Richard – ham
West Side Story – chocolate egg creams
WSS, reheated leftovers
nah, Tiramisu with Bailley’s
According to Green Book, fried chicken should go with King Richard .
Shouldn’t Power of the Dog be beef?
I’m thinking of the scene where Dunst makes dinner
Don’t Look Up – End of the World apple pie and coffee
CODA – American fromage blanc
King Richard – Strawberries and cream, a la Wimbledon.
For Dont Look Up – sell chips for 10$ to all your guests
Too close to call for me in best picture.
Can anyone recommend any good final prediction podcasts?
NGNG
Picture: Dog
Director: Campion
Adapted: Dog
Original: Belfast
Actor: Smith
Actress: Chastain
Sup Actor: Kotsur
Sup Actress: DeBose
Editing: King Richard
It’s NGNG cause there’s no surprise. It’s the prediction list like before CODA started to mess up with predictions. To me, the only surprise would be that there’s no surprise, all frontrunners win.
You are a renegade. Very gutsy. I am bowled over.
I don’t want this scenario cause I don’t want sneery Campion to win even 2 let alone 3 so this is the worst case scenario in my book. Not that I’m gonna watch the show, I won’t, but that sneer 2 or 3 times – ugh! But it isn’t completely out of realm of possibility and it would be shocking if all wins were status quo from several weeks ago instead of surprises due to late surge.
I’ve got news for you, Campion has already got one Oscar. She looks set for another one if not two or even three more. It’s not going to be good viewing for you either way because she’s bound to win at least one.
I don’t give a crap about optics. And you sound very scared that Dog might lose. Whatever happens happens.
If by remote chance Kaminski gets a win for best Cinematography, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an upset for the top prize.
A split between West Side Story and Campion.
There’s no rationale for Kaminski upset because West Side Story is so far from winning BP.
No one thinks WSS is going to win.
Thanks Mark for this comprehensive overview of the race. Another fascinating year. Thankfully no two years are ever comparable. If I get 17 of the 23 i’ll be happy. Anything less, not so much. Roll on Sunday!
I agree. 17 seems the goal this year. I think it could be a disaster year for predictors. That makes it all the more fun though, right?
Yes……….I would love to see CODA win Best Picture and hope it succeeds.
Aunjanue Ellis getting the most applause at the Oscar Luncheon??? Hmmmmm. Could she upset? Even though I think Ariana DeBose has this, I WOULD NOT be upset if Aunjanue upsets because she was pretty good.
Dune looks set to NOT win Film Editing. After losing all precursors (ACE Eddie to King Richard, BAFTA to No Time To Die (NOT Oscar nominated) & CC to West Side Story (NOT Oscar nominated), I really think it’s between King Richard and tick, tick…….BOOM! I think King Richard has this!!!
I’m glad people are finally waking up to Chastain being weak in Actress. My prediction is that anyone other than her wins.
I think Coda will definitely do it.
That Chastain is weak is a certified fact. Unlike frontrunners in other acting categories, she laggs behind in industry wins (I don’t count untelevised GG and CC that’s a joke that was acting like pundits). That said, since no actress has advantage (for example, being in a Picture nominee), being perceived a winner helps cause people tend to vote for the winner. Plus her role is that most textbook bait of baits. We’ll see.
A couple of days go, some folks were acting like she was a bona fide lock.
she looks most likely but she isn’t a lock. I can imagine who those folks are, some I have on ignore so I didn’t miss anything.