What’s that you say? It’s WAY too soon to be predicting the 95th Academy Awards? Hogwash, I say! It is never too soon to start looking ahead! Part of what makes this little game of ours so fascinating is staying in front of the curve and watching the way things scatter and unfold as the season matures. So why not have a little fun with Oscar predictions ten or eleven months out from the 95th Academy Awards?
For those of you who think this is a silly practice, shield your eyes a little and just consider this a preview of films to look forward to this year. I will argue, however, that there is a method to the madness in predicting the Oscars this early (and a whole lot of luck as well).
Here’s how I evaluate the race from this far out, in order of weight of impact on my decisioning:
- Director
- Studio
- Cast
- Plot summary
- Gut Analysis/Timeliness
All those components led to me predicting The Power of the Dog in my initial predictions last year. Jane Campion, a female director for an emerging Netflix studio, with a movie based on an acclaimed novel starring Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, Jessie Plemons, and Kodi Smit-McPhee. Sounds like a movie that could go all the way, right? And if it weren’t for those meddling CODA kids (insert angered Scooby-Doo villain voice here), I might have nailed that one from this far out! The Power of the Dog did lead all movies with 12 nominations and eventually won Director for Campion.
If you are still not convinced it is worth the effort, then consider my predictions from this time last year:
That Soggy Bottom you see was the working title for Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza, which went on to receive nominations for Picture, Director, and Screenplay. Along with those top two, three of my other predictions cracked the Best Picture lineup. So, predicting five out of ten correct isn’t so bad, right? Considering that The Tragedy of Macbeth was nominated for Lead Actor (Denzel Washington), Production Design, and Cinematography, that’s not a half-bad pick either. The other four, well, nobody’s perfect.
If you still don’t like the idea of predicting from this far out, you will likely never be convinced otherwise. But if we think of this as just a fun practice, then what’s the harm? We do have a long way to go before shit gets real, after all. Let’s fill the void and put a spotlight on a few films that, if nothing else, get me really excited about 2022.
The Fabelmans
- Director – Steven Spielberg
- Studio – Universal Studios
- Cast – Michelle Williams, Paul Dano, Seth Rogen, Julia Butters, Judd Hirsch, and David Lynch
- Plot summary – A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen (IMDB)
- Gut Analysis/Timeliness – Spielberg reteams with West Side Story scribe Tony Kushner and is coming off a lot of love and admiration surrounding their film. It’s kind of crazy to think that the man who brought us such classics as Jaws, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Raiders of the Lost Ark, E.T., The Color Purple, Jurassic Park, Schindler’s List, Saving Private Ryan, etc, etc, etc…. has only had ONE film win Best Picture. It’s also been 24 years since he won his second, and most recent, Best Director Oscar. Might be time to give the man a well-earned third statue if the film is good enough. That being said, other director autobiopics (that’s an actual word, look it up) like Roma and Belfast have been strong contenders in the Picture race only to fall short in the end. At a certain point, will AMPAS members grow tired of this kind of project that could potentially be seen as self-indulgent?
Killers of the Flower Moon
- Director – Martin Scorsese
- Studio – Apple
- Cast – Leonardo DiCaprio, Jesse Plemons, Robert De Niro, Brendan Fraser, John Lithgow, and Lily Gladstone
- Plot summary – Members of the Osage tribe in the United States are murdered under mysterious circumstances in the 1920s sparking a major F.B.I. investigation involving J. Edgar Hoover (IMDB)
- Gut Analysis/Timeliness – Can you imagine a showdown between two living legends Scorsese vs Spielberg? That just writes its own narrative. If you thought Spielberg only having one Picture win and two Director wins felt wrong, Scorsese has just one Picture and one Director. Both men make my Mount Rushmore of directors (alongside Alfred Hitchcock and Stanley Kubrick). Giants, these two. Scorsese reteaming with the two men he has worked with so often – DiCaprio and De Niro – is reason enough to think the film will be a strong player. And considering the team at Apple recently won Picture with CODA, we know the movie is in good hands.
Babylon
- Director – Damien Chazelle
- Studio – Paramount Pictures
- Cast – Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Katherine Waterston, Olivia Wilde, Tobey Maguire, Jean Smart, Samara Weaving, Eric Roberts, Spike Jonze, Lukas Haas, Max Minghella, Jeff Garlin, and Phoebe Tonkin
- Plot summary – Plot unknown. Rumored to be set in period Hollywood. (IMDB)
- Gut Analysis/Timeliness – Damien Chazelle burst onto the scene as a 29-year-old wunderkind in 2014 with Whiplash, and has only gone on to make perfect films from there (La La Land and First Man). Babylon is the film I am most excited about this year – but it is not a personal bias that sees Chazelle standing next to the likes of Spielberg and Scorsese. Chazelle’s three films have garnered 23 nominations and 10 wins. Chazelle won Best Director for La La Land, becoming the youngest Director winner of all time (32 years, 38 days). So aside my love for the young auteur, what’s to say he finds success here again? First of all, the subject matter. If AMPAS has proven anything, it’s that they love movies about themselves (think: The Artist, Argo, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood, etc). How can they resist a throwback to the golden age of the silver screen? Especially with that cast!
Untitled David O. Russell Project
- Director – David O. Russell
- Studio – 20th Century Studios
- Cast – Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, Anya Taylor-Joy, Chris Rock, Zoe Saldana, Robert De Niro, Rami Malek, Timothy Olyphant, Michael Shannon, Andrea Riseborough, John David Washington, Mike Myers, Taylor Swift, Alessandro Nivola, and Matthias Schoenaerts
- Plot summary – Plot details kept under wraps. (IMDB)
- Gut Analysis/Timeliness – Very little is known about the film, but one look at that cast and you can imagine it will be widely talked about if nothing else. David O. Russell has been nominated five times, including thrice for Director (The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, and American Hustle). Russell had a hell of a stretch from 2010-2013, garnering Best Picture nominees for each of his efforts in that four-year span (25 nominations between the three). While it’s been a few years – with a few misfires in between – a David O. Russell film usually produces some magnificent performances. It is inarguable that he gets the best out of his cast. If you add Joy to the mix, he has helped produce TWELVE acting nominations among those four films (and three wins)! This will likely be an actor’s showcase, and with the Actor’s branch making up a good chunk of the Academy, watch for it to land in the Picture conversation as well.
She Said
- Director – Maria Schrader
- Studio – Universal Pictures
- Cast – Carey Mulligan, Zoe Kazan, Samantha Morton, Tom Pelphrey, Patricia Clarkson, and Andre Braugher
- Plot summary – New York Times reporters Megan Twohey and Jodi Kantor break one of the most important stories in a generation — a story that helped launch the #MeToo movement and shattered decades of silence around the subject of sexual assault in Hollywood (IMDB)
- Gut Analysis/Timeliness – The subject matter (Harvey Weinstein) is extremely sensitive and likely touches – in a varying level of degrees, both directly and indirectly – a good number of members in AMPAS. I could see a world where this is our Picture/Director/Lead Actress winner as a result.
White Noise
- Director – Noah Baumbach
- Studio – Netflix
- Cast – Adam Driver, Greta Gerwig, Raffey Cassidy, Alessandro Nivola, Jodie Turner-Smith, Don Cheadle, and Andre 3000
- Plot summary – Follows a year in the life of Jack Gladney, a professor who has made his name by pioneering the field of Hitler studies (IMDB)
- Gut Analysis/Timeliness – Netflix has produced so many great Oscar contenders over the past few years. The trouble is knowing which film will be at the center of their awards campaign. My bet is Baumbach, who scored six nominations for Netflix with Marriage Story in 2019, will once again have their best shot at the top prize.
Empire of Light
- Director – Sam Mendes
- Studio – Searchlight Pictures
- Cast – Colin Firth, Olivia Colman, and Toby Jones
- Plot summary – Plot unknown. Described as a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s. (IMDB)
- Gut Analysis/Timeliness – What happens when you put Colin Firth together with Olivia Colman in a love story? We all fall in love with them, that’s what. Sam Mendes is one of my favorite directors working today. His amazing WWI drama, 1917, topped my list in 2019, and I am very excited to see what he does with his two brilliant leads.
Bones and All
- Director – Luca Guadagnino
- Studio – MGM/United Artists
- Cast – Timothée Chalamet, Taylor Russell, Chloë Sevigny, Mark Rylance, Michael Stuhlbarg, David Gordon Green, Andre Holland, and Francesca Scorsese
- Plot summary – Maren, a young woman, learns how to survive on the margins of society (IMDB)
- Gut Analysis/Timeliness – Guadagnino reteams with Call Me By Your Name stars Chalamet and Stuhlbarg to deliver another coming-of-age story. Based on the novel by Camille DeAngelis, it sounds like a heartbreaking journey of self-discovery, something Guadagnino has proven he can masterfully tell.
Women Talking
- Director – Sarah Polley
- Studio – MGM/United Artists
- Cast – Jessie Buckley, Rooney Mara, Frances McDormand, Claire Foy, and Ben Wishaw
- Plot summary – A group of women in an isolated Mennonite religious colony in Bolivia as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men. (IMDB)
- Gut Analysis/Timeliness – It’s crazy to think it has been ten years since Polley’s brilliant masterpiece, Stories We Tell. It’s even more unbelievable that Stories was her most recent directorial effort. Aside from Stories, Polley’s Take This Waltz and Away From Her add to a resume that would have me incredibly excited about whatever she is working on next. Look for this film to show up in several above-the-line categories, most likely in the Lead and Supporting Actress races.
Poor Things
- Director – Yorgos Lanthimos
- Studio – Searchlight Pictures
- Cast – Emma Stone, Willem Dafoe, Margaret Qualley, Mark Ruffalo, Kathryn Hunter, Jerrod Carmichael, and Christopher Abbott
- Plot summary – The film will be a Victorian tale of love, discovery and scientific daring, Poor Things tells the incredible story of Belle Baxter, a young woman brought back to life by an eccentric but brilliant scientist. (IMDB)
- Gut Analysis/Timeliness – Lanthimos’ The Favourite was nominated for ten Oscars and won Lead Actress for Olivia Colman. The Greek filmmaker is back with another period-piece, this time with a science-fiction twist. I imagine this will play well in Production Design, Costumes, Hair and Makeup, and with Lanthimos’ creativity, that’s just the start. Note that there are a couple of actors – Dafoe and Ruffalo – who are very well overdue for a win. Might Lanthimos do for them what he was able to help Colman achieve with The Favourite?
Just missed…
Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Directors – Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
- Studio – Searchlight Pictures
- Cast – Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, Stephanie Hsu, Jamie Lee Curtis, Jenny Slate, and James Hong
- Plot summary – An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led. (IMDB)
- Gut Analysis/Timeliness – Can the critics keep this film afloat and in the conversation for the next ten months? That is the biggest drawback with predicting a film released in March. Especially one so absurd and profound as this one. Will Academy members allow it the time it needs to unfold to see its full bloom? I saw several older couples walking out about halfway through the movie, so I am not sure. I could see this one being turned off ten minutes in at a lot of home screenings. If anything, AMPAS has all the time in the year to revisit it. God, I can’t stop thinking about this movie. Maybe this is my wishful thinking spot. Either way, what a gift this movie is, and while it isn’t the type of film that often gets in, my hopes are the younger and more international members put it at the top of their list. A preferential ballot could help a movie like Everything Everywhere All At Once, where passion is often what makes or breaks a film.
A few more films that are high on my radar (synopses provided by IMDB):
- Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Brothers) – A 1950’s housewife living with her husband in a utopian experimental community begins to worry that his glamorous company may be hiding disturbing secrets. Olivia Wilde directs.
- Disappointment Blvd (A24) – A decades-spanning portrait of one of the most successful entrepreneurs of all time. Ari Aster directs.
- The Whale (A24) – A reclusive English teacher suffering from severe obesity who attempts to reconnect with his estranged teenage daughter for one last chance at redemption. Darren Aronofsky directs.
- Armageddon Time (Focus Features) – A coming-of-age story about growing up in Queens in the 1980s. James Gray directs.
Bardo (?) Plot unknown. The film explores the political and social modernity of Mexico. Alejandro G. Iñárritu directs. - The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) – Peter as his busy life with new partner Emma and their baby is thrown into disarray when his ex-wife Kate turns up with their teenage son, Nicholas. Florian Zeller directs.
- Nope (Universal Pictures) – The residents of a lonely gulch in inland California bear witness to an uncanny and chilling discovery. Jordan Peele directs.
- Asteroid City (TBD) Plot unknown. Rumored to be a love story set in Europe. Wes Anderson directs.
Rustin (Netflix) Gay, civil rights activist Bayard Rustin, who organized the 1963 March on Washington. George C. Wolfe directs. - Avatar 2 (20th Century/Disney) Jake Sully lives with his newfound family formed on the planet of Pandora. Once a familiar threat returns to finish what was previously started, Jake must work with Neytiri and the army of the Na’vi race to protect their planet. James Cameron directs.
- Cha Cha Real Smooth (Apple) A young man who works as a Bar Mitzvah party host strikes up a friendship with a mother and her autistic daughter. Cooper Raiff directs.
- Till (MGM/United Artists) – The story of Emmett Louis Till and the legacy of his mother who pursued justice for her lynched son. Chinonye Chukwu directs.
- Elvis (Warner Brothers) A look at the life of the legendary rock and roll star, Elvis Presley. Baz Luhrmann directs.
Strong contenders likely moving to 2023: Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan), Napoleon (Ridley Scott), Maestro (Bradley Cooper), and Emancipation (Antoine Fuqua).
I’ll be updating the Good As Gold page soon, but for now you can find my predictions for Best Picture here.
since 2008, only one film has won Best Picture that is directed by someone with a previously Best Picture nominated film. Birdman .
Slumdog Millionaire, The Hurt Locker, The King’s Speech, The Artist, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight, Moonlight, The Shape of Water, Green Book, Parasite, Nomadland and CODA
so keep an eye for an underdog that comes from a festival and quietly take the guild and bafta stage
since 2008 in exception of midnight in paris , django unchained and the descadents all screenplays awards were won by someone who didn’t win an oscar in any category from overdue veterans to newbies and it benefits the small scale projects and the so called underdogs
Cannes Lineup:
Opening Movie:
“Z,” Michel Hazanavicius
Competition
“Holy Spider,” Ali Abbasi
“Les Amandiers,” Valeria Bruni Tedeschi
“Crimes of the Future,” David Cronenberg
“The Stars at Noon,” Claire Denis
“Frere et Soeur,” Arnaud Desplechin
“Tori and Lokita,” Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne
“Close,” Lukas Dhont
“Armageddon Time,” James Gray
“Broker,” Hirokazu Kore-eda
“Nostalgia,” Mario Martone
“R.M.N.,” Cristian Mungiu
“Triangle of Sadness,” Ruben Ostlund
“Decisions to Leave,” Park Chan-Wook
“Showing Up,” Kelly Reichardt
“Leila’s Brothers,” Saeed Roustayi
“Boy from Heaven,” Tarik Saleh
“Tchaikovsky’s Wife,” Kirill Serebrennikov
“Hi-Han (Eo),” Jerzy Skolimowski
Un Certain Regard
“Les Pires,” Lise Akoka and Romane Gueret
“Burning Days,” Emin Alper
“Metronom,” Alexandru Belc
“Retour a Seoul,” Davy Chou
“Sick of Myself,” Kristoffer Borgli
“Domingo y La Niebla,” Ariel Escalante Meza
“Plan 75,” Hayakawa Chie
“Beast,” Riley Keough and Gina Gammell
“Corsage,” Marie Kreutzer
“Butterfly Vision,” Maksym Nakonechnyi
“Volada Land,” Hlynur Palmason
“Rodeo,” Lola Quivoron
“Joyland,” Saim Sadiq
“The Stranger,” Thomas M. Wright
“The Silent Twins,” Agnieszka Smoczynska
Cannes Premiere
“Outside Night,” Marco Bellocchio
“Nos Frangins,” Rachid Bouchareb
“Irma Vep,” Olivier Assayas (Series)
“Dodo,” Panos H. Koutras
Special Screenings
“The Natural History of Destruction,” Sergei Loznitsa
“Jerry Lee Lewis: Trouble in Mind,” Ethan Coen
“All That Breathes,” Shaunak Sen
Midnight Screenings
“Moonage Daydream,” Brett Morgen
“Smoking Makes You Cough,” Quentin Dupieux
Hunt, dir: Lee Jung-Jae
Out of Competition
“Top Gun: Maverick,” Joseph Kosinski
“Elvis,” Baz Luhrmann
“Three Thousand Years of Longing,” George Miller
“November,” Cédric Jimenez
“Masquerade,” Nicolas Bedos
Ok. Cronenberg teaser. Officially my most attended film of the year
https://youtu.be/QVX7df79BNo
It’s going to be an interesting festival.
Russian film in competition. Shame.
A film by someone who has vocally opposed Putin and who was jailed possibly for political reasons. But yes, in terms of the funding of the film, there are certain problems with including it in the lineup
A film that appears anti-Putin does not necessarily appear that way to citizens of Russia since they have a unique perspective that differs wildly from ours. A much-lauded Russian film, Leviathan by Andrey Zvyagintsev when viewed by the social class shown in the film fully accept what is shows simply because that is what is known to them. To them it’s not accepting their situation, it’s all they know.
Now I have no idea what the film in competition here is going to be, but just because it might appear critical of today’s Russia, you’d be mistaken if you assumed it’s release wasn’t intentional. What better way for Putin to be seen as supporting free speech by releasing a film that will either never be seen in russia or be seen as completely benign.
But the thing you’re describing would apply irrespective of whether the film played at Cannes or not, the existence and posisble release in Russia of the Serebrennikov movie would have the same effect to the people who are pro-Putin (and the movie does exist, there’s little that can be done about that) while the movie playing in competition at Cannes with Serebrennikov probably strongly criticizing Putin at the press conference and on the red carpet shouldn’t improve Putin’s image to anyone else. And in general, I don’t really think the perception on this movie is that Putin is releasing the movie, at least the discussion around Serebrennikov’s Leto as well as his production of The Barber of Seville which I randomly went to see on a trip to Berlin right after Leto had been announced to the Cannes lineup felt more like people were discussing those works as heroic political acts against Putin because Serebrennikov kept working despite being put in jail.
The problem in my opinion comes more from basically giving financial support to the financers by giving the movie a platform which probably boosts the box office.
I actually don’t think artists should be punished for their ethnicity.
If everything, everywhere all at once is not in the Oscar race is either that the year 2022 has very awesome movies or the lack of the ampas to prize young talents that are definitely defying the movie standards
or it’s just too early, or the studio didn’t give it a push or any number of other things
Netflix just fired Frank Langella from one of their shows for making an inappropriate joke on set. https://media0.giphy.com/media/8aYLkCDqldRbq/giphy-downsized-medium.gif
And touching. Let’s not Fox News the story.
darn it you were 10 seconds ahead of me!
The touching was part of the scene.
and for allegedly touching a co-star on the leg and asking if she enjoyed it. My sense is, that this will be a common occurrence (firings); irrespective of whether the person was guilty, or whether it is major or minor. Cancel. Cancel Cancel.
From what I’ve read they seem to be saying that touching her leg was part of the scene they were doing.
Was that from Breitbart?
there’s such a hypervigilance sweeping the culture. I’m not endorsing assault or inappropriate behaviour but there’s definitely an appetite for some agitation.
ANother prediction.
The presence of three period civil rights films (Shirley, Rustin, Till) will shake things up. All will be well made, all will be in the race. They will provide a bounty of riches for performances by Black performers to nominate.
Most of the snubbed performers will come from these three films and none will make the Best Pic line up. This will cause a major controversy I’ll call #HowCouldThey. Good points will be made by both sides. Some will argue that voters simply didn’t want to vote for all three of them and since none of the three stood out from the other, none could garner enough support on its own. As there was a wide variety of other quality deserving films from White Male directors demanding their attention.
No one will state the obvious, that it’s impossible to hold the Academy responsible for any specific voting outcome since it’s membership is large and amorphous and allowed to do its own thing. And people will refuse to accept the “embarrassment of riches” defense forcing the Academy to seriously consider quotas for the following year even though Regina King will go on to win Best Actress. No one will note that the last time white actors and a director swept the award since 2010, a year when all nominees were white except for Javier Bardem.
Javier Bardem is not white, while Penélope Cruz is? Wow.
Decide what we Spaniards are… Antonio Banderas suffered this lack of information a couple of years ago…
(for the record, while yes, we spanish have some arab and jewish mix on our veins, we also have loads of blood from all over Europe… those darker skinned Spaniards tend to be gypsies… which are all over Europe as well)
19 nominees are clearly white – not sure how Javier Bardem identifies. Sure, he is European, but his skin tone is definitely darker – this is one of the reasons I think such classification is stupid. I am merely suggesting that voters go down the list of names and see the Spanish Language name and it might not occur that he’s actually not from a “third-world” country.
Not sure where penelope cruz comes into the discussion – I just did a quick once over with the winners in the directing and acting categories. I had to go to The King’s Speech year to see all five winners were white.
A lot is made of the Academy being racist in their choices. I really don’t see it. Sure, minorities are underrepresented in certain categories, such as Black nominees in Best Actress. But I would love one of these people doing the critiquing and since 2000 or so list all of the Best Actress possibilities who were Black and then see who has been overlooked, if any.
One could, for example, say that Viola Davis should have been nominated for Widows. Maybe, but it’s hard to argue that this was personal against Viola Davis. Or Steve McQueen as a filmmaker. And in that year there were many films with Black casts (and other minorities) nominated. Widows just didn’t make the cut. I’d argue If Beale Street Could Talk was better and that didn’t get a Best Pic nod either.
I just see a controversy brewing when there doesn’t need to be one. I hope I am wrong.
Penélope Cruz is as Spanish as Javier Bardem… didn’t you know?
but she’s did not receive a nomination that year. I know very much she is Spanish and in many films by Pedro Almodovar who i simply adore.
sorry, I was referring to THIS year, lol. Banderas was labelled also as POC in 2019..
guess this makes me a POC as well? At least I was born in Africa…
Bardem is white.
Let’s see Scorsese doing another crime movie ! Spielberg trying to pull a Belfast with The Fabelmans ! ! Bones and All a Timothee Chalamet cannibal movie without Armie Hammer. Looking forward to Armageddon Time Maybe James Gray will finally get the kind of recognition he has deserved for years ! As for the future Thank God the Great Greta Gerwig is working on her Barbie movie with Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling while Francis Coppola is still trying>to get the money to make Megalopolis ! The only movie I’m really looking forward to is next years Christopher Nolan film Oppenheimer
I just saw The Northman. Film of the year so far. Hope it will be a contender at Oscars next year.
(shame the article doesn’t even mention it)
It is on my list to see for sure! Glad you liked it, hope I will as well.
I am going to go on the record that the Fabelmans will be self-indulgent garbage filled with syrupy manipulations that prove to be anything but true.
Spielberg will say “it’s just based on the story, it isn’t meant to reflect on actual events.” WHich is a cop-out because the emotional heft of such stories is tricking the audience into thinking it’s true (see any bio-pic)
It will be an earlier favorite to win, but the ensuing controversy will allow a latecomer to take the reins and win. Since we’ve had two female-centered character-driven pieces, I think it’s time for something completely opposite to win. Something male, something action/history oriented that still has an emotional heft.
I am going to go with White Noise. It’s Baumbach’s time (sure, it’s other people as well, but he’s the one that’s never won Best Pic or Best Director) and it will be Adam Driver’s performance that drives it to win. The source material is extraordinarily strong, and Baumbach is one of the few I trust to actually understand it will enough to turn it into a movie, he’ll be more interested in character and concept rather than the action elements.
This will be a mind-bending experience for many, since I suspect the postmodern concept will seem fresh for many, even though literature’s been doing it for years (well since at least white noise cam out in 1985)
When it comes out, pay attention to an early scene in the film involving people taking photos of a barn. It’s one of the great passages in postmodern literature, and serves as the thematic base for the rest of the book. If this scene works, it will likely be a great movie.
Great list Mark, thanks for setting the scene for the year ahead. And congrats on the 5 predictions a year ahead of time, That is impressive. 🙂
Thanks for reading @disqus_SKs5AxVy5T:disqus
Killers of the Flower Moon, Fabelmans, and Women Talking are gonna be the three vying for BP in the end IMO.
Fabelmans is Spielberg’s Belfast after being snubbed (horribly) for West Side Story (one of his biggest directing achievements). He’ll probably win Director and get nominated for Screenplay but lose Picture, it’s my vibe.
Killer of the Flower Moon is Scorsese’s The Power of the Dog and may be Gangs of NY / The Irishman redux… respected not loved.
Women Talking could be kind of unstoppable
Women Talking will be more like unbearable for a large swath of Oscar voters, no matter how good the quality is. Read the book. It’s like The Hours only minus the singing and dancing. Sure, it will garner critical support, but a 2+ hour movie about toxic masculinity in Bolivia is not exactly going to warm the souls of the 67% male voters.
I never underestimate the peer pressure of political correctness… remember, they just couldn’t resist CODA, which broke a lot of stats. If there’s not a similar film in the running, appealing to the same beats, it’s probably in, and will be up in the ballots.
Family is politically correct?? The last two best pictures were about white people while if truly pc, they could’ve chosen stories about POC. And all I can say is read Women Talking.
“… like The Hours only minus the singing and dancing.” I do not remember any singing or dancing in The Hours.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a26aed5401fb217b96c6cddc9940e98c9e3262cd5e946fd511406ae2b3fc1685.gif
OT.
More Cannes rumours.
Usually we know the President of the jury quite in advance. However, the line-up will be known next Thursday and we still don’t know who takes the greatest honor.
Apparently, Festival Director Thierry Frémaux wanted either Penélope Cruz or Marion Cotillard as a President. Only nine actresses have been chosen as President in the history of the festival, and not any actress… Olivia de Havilland, Sophia Loren, Michèle Morgan, Ingrid Bergman, Jeanne Moreau (twice), Isabelle Adjani, Isabelle Huppert, Cate Blanchett and Liv Ullmann (chosen after Jodie Foster couldn’t make it) Also, Catherine Deneuve rejected to be the top jury several times.
As high as this honor is, both actresses, in a class act, would have passed the oportunity in order to give the directors of their current films the chance to take part in this year’s Official Selection.
So, the name in everyone’s mouth and ears right now is… Farhadi, who has just been accused of a rip-off with his last film A hero, last year’s Grand Prix. Reason not to make the announce just… yet.
Indicted is a little stronger than “accused”. Get the lash ready!
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/709584d108e67ab5ed714868c146d4d1405d75e0343ca0c3ab8dcb872bd6ec1d.gif
For sure. However I take Iranian justice system inductions with an inch of salt. Lol.
When the whip comes down, you don’t care whether it was a kangaroo court or not. It stings!
I guess Farhadi doesn’t care since the punishment would be inevitable. But when we’re talking about a system that punishes artists, human rights defenders, women and homosexuals… Yeah, I do care and I do not consider their suspicions or evidences worthy of trust until I see it by myself.
By the way, I find A hero quite an appalling film, rip-off or not.
Fabelmans feels like more of a Screenplay winner than a Picture/Director winner.
Coming a year after Apple’s big win will probably hurt Flower Moon’s chances. A Directing win is much more likely than a Picture win for that one.
I’m guessing a lot of people will feel like it’s still too soon for She Said.
EEAAO was delightful, but given all the factors you mentioned I’d be satisfied if it manages a couple of nominations for screenplay and acting. Then again, I said the exact same thing about Get Out.
You very well could be right about Fabelmans – Belfast won just Screenplay.
I see your point about Apple winning two years in a row but I’m still sticking with Killers of the Flower Moon to win. If you’ve read the book…oof. This is gonna be an all-timer for Marty.
Crimes of the future, by Cronenberg.
It’s a shame that all the buzz that Maps to the stars created in Cannes, with Julianne Moore wining best actress at the festival, was absorbed in the race so she could win… for another movie, more Oscar friendly.
Maps to the stars – zero noms
Still Alice – 1/1 win.
I’m actually curious about the movie Shirley. It’s being written & directed by John Ridley (he won the Oscar for screenplay for 12 Years A Slave), but is relatively untested as a director. BUT — it has Regina King in the lead role and Andre Holland, Terrence Howard & Lucas Hedges in supporting roles. A biopic about the first black female congresswoman.
Also curious about The Woman King. Directed by Gina Prince-Bythewood (kind of hit or miss director, but she did direct Beyond The Lights to critical acclaim). I just have a feeling Viola Davis is getting her 5th oscar nomination (and possibly winning her 2nd statue). Davis describes it as similar to a Braveheart story, based on a true story. Incredible ensemble supporting cast as well — John Boyega, Thuso Mbedu, Lashana Lynch, etc.
Excited about Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives. I’ve heard early screenings have been overwhelmingly positive both for critics and audiences. And it has Viggo Mortensen, Joel Edgerton & Colin Farrell with a screenplay by William Nicholson (writer of Les Miserables, Gladiator & Unbroken).
And I have a big hunch Everything Everywhere All At Once will be nominated for Best Picture (as well as Actress for Michelle Yeoh). It’s critically acclaimed and I’ve been seeing a ton of love from people posting about it on social media. So the audience love is there as well.
Shirley (and Regina King) will definitely be showing up in my Acting preview. I agree about both her and Viola. Thirteen Lives has me very excited as well. I LOVED The Rescue and hope it does the story justice.
LOVED The Rescue as well! It was one of my favorite films last year (bummed it missed out on the doc nomination at the Oscars).
I think this year’s Best Actress race is going to be one of the best ever. Viola Davis, Michelle Yeoh, Regina King, Olivia Colman, Margot Robbie, Naomi Ackie, Carey Mulligan, Greta Gerwig, Danielle Deadwyler, Taylor Russell, Frances McDormand, Emma Stone…the list goes on and on! Excited for this year’s race!
Great picks on your list by the way!
add Ana de Armas… has a candy role, great director, Netflix will push her to death unless surprise, and is FRESH after stealing No Time to Die…
Thanks! And I agree about the Actress field.
Man, I sure hope Thirteen Lives delivers! That doc was in my top 3 films last year.
The only caveat is whenever a studio says that a film’s test scores are “The best in studio history”, take it with a giant rock of pink Himalayan salt. So sayeth MGM about Thirteen Lives.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6b9a4e13500201aa3773a669b13f73e43b2a4e81be71aa81d8e094285e8fe701.gif
also: should we start considering a possible double nom for Brendan Fraser, lead in The Whale, and supporting in Killers of the Flower Moon? THAT would be one hell of a comeback… (he was worthy in Gods & Monsters, by the way)
Definitely worth considering. Anything is possible this far out, and we’ve been hearing good things about his role in The Whale for a while now.
there’s a lot known about the role, as it comes from a play. It’s a tour de force, it seems. And Aronofsky is absolutely fantastic with actors… I would have nominated the four main actors in both Requiem for a Dream and Mother! and the 3 actresses in Black Swan, right away. Same with The Wrestler. And Fraser has the chops, always had them (Gods & Monsters, and to a minor extent, Crash)
Next Goal Wins feels like a crowdpleaser that may engage audiences
Blonde may be divisive but certainly can track some passion
3000 years of longing WILL have a lot of attention, after George Miller’s too long hiatus since Mad Max: Fury Road and its 6 Oscars (that should have been 8 at the very least).
I am thinkin Everything Everywhere All At Once is just too uncanny to be forgotten or passed, and that preferential ballot will help it, plus the strong narratives for 3 of its actors, and really obvious chances at Original Screenplay and Film Editing. It just hits the right notes for a BP nomination so easily, that the only thing preventing me already from locking it, is how many months (and also dirty campaigning) are before nomination morning. Being Mad Max: Fury Road another recent example of how an early release that blew critics minds, overcame the genre bias and lead to almost sweep nominations…
I agree about Screenplay and Editing, and if it gets those, you would imagine it gets in for Picture. Here’s hoping it can stay in the picture for that long.
the Screenplay is simply one of the kind they can’t really pass – even if sometimes they do. Also, the action packed story warrants showy editing as well. With that as basis + 3 acting (at least) clear possibilities, it’s a contender for sure, having the grades by audiences and the reviews already. If it surpasses 100 million domestically (let’s see how the word of mouth and the expansions work), I’d say we have it almost locked unless something “genre” outshines it. Now A24 just has to not mess its campaigning… and that may be the biggest “if”
Your list is seriously lacking bio-pics. The Rustin movie seems the most likely, but I just noticed an Emmit Till movie is there, not sure that’s really a bio-pic though. And the Rustin movie doesn’t really center around a story we know.
I suspect Elvis will break into the Best Pic race because, well, it’s the most obvious bio-pic to do so. The academy loves to honor musicians this way.
I hear ya. The Fabelmans is a (auto)biopic, though. And I have Elvis, Till, and Rustin in my radar section. Just not sold on the Elvis trailer and want to hear more about Till and Rustin. I do have Domingo Colman as my early prediction to win Lead Actor for Rustin, but more to come on that when I post the Acting predictions.
saw the trailer, and considering Baz Luhrrman’s career, I think it is going to sweep Razzie noms. His style is so late-90s, early-00s that may result in a trainwreck, critically and economically speaking. I hope I am wrong, though. I like Baz and his daredevil filmmaking.
Musician biopics may be Oscar bait for actors, but the only one to ever win Best Picture was The Great Ziegfeld back in 1936.
I would like to see how The Woman King do this year!
Off Topic… re: “King Richard”
finally, Arantxa Sánchez-Vicario has spoken about the manipulation and “hollywoodization” of her match portrayed in the film, dismantling how it is shown and pointing out, that it simply did not happen like that (there’s a limited time to go to the restrooms)… she considered sueing the producers, but thought twice that it would only be free marketing for the film… that was one of my pointed flaws of the film, creating a villain just to enhance the figures portrayed, out of the blue. Honestly, that ending was almost as bad as “Argo”‘s… still, King Richard is an overall good movie, and Arantxa encourages to see it, for the representation of how difficult and how many sacrifices are necessary to be a international sport star. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dd40f6e4a0b588899a11cf27de699ffa9e6dee372c042afd00f5169b57a7a374.jpg
She could have sued for maligning her character.
she acknowledges that and almost did so…
Would you have sued if you were in her place?
no. I know it wold have been extra publicity and thus, they would have even made more money out of me. I wouldn’t even have gone to media… I would have been retired, remember?
I think the bathroom break is five minutes and you can only take it after a set is over. An injury timeout can be taken anytime of course. I feel that tennis should allow coaching during a match but I do not think that other racket sports allow it. I also think that Stefi Graf usually just found a way to win no matter how difficult an opponent was. Graf defeating Venus Williams in the 1999 Wimbledon Quarterfinal is one example.
she’d probably make more money if she wrote a book about it