I’m only going to say this once — well, okay, maybe I’ll say it more than once. There is a reason why the biggest movies are male-driven. I used to rail against this until the industry forgot just how great it is to watch a male-driven movie that isn’t superhero fantasy, not that there’s anything wrong with that. I have always thought that men were the default. Women love watching men, men love watching men. When you mess with that formula, it can be trickier. SOME women like watching SOME women. SOME men like watching SOME women. In general, though, a male lead tends to be a more universal experience.
Okay, you can be mad about the patriarchy. OR you can sit back and enjoy the man candy. I’m just saying! We’ve all been pent up in our homes for too long. Gen Z is having less sex. I mean, what harm is there in enjoying, say, Austin Butler’s thighs in a black leather pantsuit? I’m just saying. Where’s the harm? WHERE IS THE HARM?
JUST kidding (sort of) But seriously, the Best Actor race is, as usual, packed. That’s only if you go by the LISTS. The Oscar pundits are compiling them based on hunches. We go by what the movie is about, who is making the movie, and what company is distributing it. Just on those three things alone we can get pretty close to figuring out, more or less, how it MIGHT go.
The Best Actor race still drives the Best Picture race, even if it hasn’t been as consistent since Hollywood has suddenly decided it was smart to abandon THE FORMULA. But let’s stack ’em up anyway and see how it goes, with the caveat that we know it isn’t fair when you compare it with their female counterparts. They aren’t represented in the Best Picture race on an equal level. That’s just a fact. But considering the Oscars and Hollywood are collapsing now under the weight of our collective good intentions, I’m just going to table fairness for the time being.
The last two Best Picture contenders were films with female leads. That is extremely unusual. It had to do with ongoing efforts by activists to bring films by and about women to the forefront, and a collective effort by critics, pundits, and the industry to push non-male, non-white directors in the race. But again, let’s just table this. We don’t yet know if we’re still in the thick of our good intentions, or whether Hollywood and the Oscars will, in fact, collapse.
Here is how Best Actor has gone for the past 20 years.
2000
Russell Crowe, Gladiator++
Javier Bardem, Before Night Falls
Tom Hanks, Cast Away
Ed Harris, Pollock
Geoffrey Rush, Quills
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Chocolat — female lead
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon — ensemble
Erin Brockovich — Best Actress winner+
Traffic — Supporting Actor winner+, ensemble
2001
Denzel Washington, Training Day
Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind+
Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom*
Sean Penn, I Am Sam
Will Smith, Ali
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Gosford Park — Supporting Actress nominees, ensemble
Fellowship of the Ring — ensemble
Moulin Rouge — Best Actress nominee
2002
Adrien Brody, The Pianist*
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York*
Nicolas Cage, Adaptation
Michael Caine, The Quiet American
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Chicago+ — Best Supporting Actress winner, Best Actress Nominee
The Hours — Best Actress winner+, Supporting Actress nominees
The Two Towers — ensemble
2003
Sean Penn, Mystic River*
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation*
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Jude Law, Cold Mountain
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Return of the King+ — ensemble
Master and Commander
Seabiscuit
2004
Jamie Foxx, Ray*
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby+
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator*
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland*
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Sideways — male lead, Supporting Actress nominee, ensemble
2005
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote*
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain*
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck*
Terrence Howard, Hustle and Flow
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Crash+ — Supporting Actor nominee, ensemble
Munich — male lead
2006
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O’Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Best Picture Five:
The Departed+ — male lead(s), Supporting Actor nominee
Babel — ensemble
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine — Supporting Actor winner+, ensemble
The Queen — Best Actress winner+
2007
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood*
George Clooney, Michael Clayton*
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Additional Best Picture nominees:
No Country for Old Men+ — Supporting Actor winner+, male lead, ensemble
Atonement — ensemble
Juno — Best Actress nominee
2008
Sean Penn, Milk*
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon*
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button*
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Slumdog Millionaire+ — male lead, ensemble
The Reader, Best Actress winner+
2009
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air*
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker+
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Additional Best Picture nominees:
The Blind Side — Best Actress winner+
District 9 — male lead
An Education — Best Actress nominee
Inglourious Basterds — Supporting Actor winner+
Precious — Supporting Actress winner+
A Serious Man — male lead
Up
2010
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech+
Jeff Bridges, True Grit*
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network*
James Franco, 127 Hours*
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Black Swan — Best Actress winner+
The Fighter — Best Supporting Actress/Actor winners+
Inception — male lead
The Kids Are All Right — Best Actress nominee
Toy Story 3
Winter’s Bone — Best Actress nominee
2011
Jean DuJardin, The Artist+
George Clooney, The Descendents*
Brad Pitt, Moneyball*
Demian Bichir, A Better Life
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close — male lead, Supporting Actor nominee
The Help — Supporting Actress winner+, Best Actress nominee, ensemble
Hugo — male lead
Midnight in Paris — male lead
The Tree of Life — ensemble
War Horse — male lead
2012
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln*
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook*
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables*
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Additional Best Picture Nine:
Argo+ — male lead, Supporting Actor nominee, ensemble
Amour — Best Actress nominee
Beasts of the Southern Wild — Best Actress nominee
Django Unchained — Best Supporting Actor winner, ensemble
Life of Pi — male lead
Zero Dark Thirty — Best Actress nominee
2013
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club*
Christian Bale, American Hustle*
Bruce Dern, Nebraska*
Leonardo DiCaprio, Wolf of Wall Street*
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave+
Additional Best Picture Nominees:
Captain Phillips — male lead, Best Supporting Actor nominee
Gravity — Best Actress nominee
Her — Best Actor nominee
Philomena – Best Actress nominee
2014
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything*
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper*
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game*
Michael Keaton, Birdman+
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Boyhood — Best Supporting Actress winner+
Grand Budapest Hotel — ensemble
The Imitation Game — Best Actor nominee, Supporting Actress nominee
Selma — male lead
Whiplash — Best Supporting Actor winner+
2015
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant*
Matt Damon, The Martian*
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Spotlight+ — Supporting Actor/Actress nominee, ensemble
The Big Short — Supporting Actor nominee, ensemble
Bridge of Spies — male-lead, Best Supporting Actor winner+
Brooklyn — Best Actress nominee
Mad Max: Fury Road
Room — Best Actress winner+
2016
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea*
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge*
Ryan Gosling, La La Land*
Denzel Washington, Fences*
Viggo Moretensen, Captain Fantastic
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Moonlight+ — Supporting Actor winner+
Hell or High Water — male-driven, Supporting Actor nominee
Hidden Figures — Supporting Actress nominee
La La Land — Best Actress winner+, Best Actor nominee
Lion — male lead, Supporting Actress nominee
2017
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour*
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name*
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread*
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out*
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Additional Best Picture nominees:
The Shape of Water+ — Best Actress nominee
Dunkirk — male-driven, ensemble
Lady Bird — Best Actress nominee, Supporting Actress nominee
The Post — Best Actress nominee, ensemble
Three Billboards — Best Actress/Supporting Actor winners
2018
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody*
Christian Bale, Vice*
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born*
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book+
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Black Panther — ensemble
BlacKkKlansman — Supporting Actor nominee, ensemble
The Favourite — Best Actress winner, Supporting Actress nominees
Roma — Best Actress/Supporting Actress nominees
2019
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker*
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Adam Driver, Marriage Story*
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Parasite+ — ensemble
Ford v. Ferrari — male-driven
The Irishman — Supporting Actor nominees, ensemble
Jojo Rabbit — male driven, Supporting Actress nominee, ensemble
Little Women — Best Actress/Supporting Actress nominees
1917 — male-driven ensemble
2020
Anthony Hopkins, The Father*
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal*
Gary Oldman, Mank*
Steven Yeun, Minari*
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Nomadland+ — Best Actress winner+
Judas and the Black Messiah — Best Supporting Actor winner
Promising Young Woman — Best Actress nominee
The Trial of the Chicago 7 — Supporting Actor nominee, ensemble
2021
Will Smith, King Richard*
Bendict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog*
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick Boom
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Additional Best Picture nominees:
CODA+ — Best Supporting Actor winner, female lead
Belfast — male lead, Supporting Actor/Actress nominees, ensemble
Drive My Car — male lead
Dune — male lead, ensemble
Licorice Pizza — ensemble
Nightmare Alley — male lead, Supporting Actress nominee, ensemble
West Side Story, Best Supporting Actress winner, male/female leads
Now that we’ve gone through that exhausting list for completeness’ sake, let’s take a look at the strongest contenders so far.
Erik Anderson at AwardsWatch has his Best Actor predictions from May. They aren’t up to date and he has told me he is going to wait a bit, until we get more intel, to update them. But regardless, let’s look at his top five: at the moment
(In bold, my top choices at the moment)
1. Leonardo DiCaprio — Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
2. Brendan Fraser — The Whale (A24)
3. Hugh Jackman — The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Colman Domingo — Rustin (Netflix)
5. Song Kang-ho — Broker (NEON)
His next tier is, as follows:
6. Austin Butler — Elvis (Warner Bros)
7. Adam Driver — White Noise (Netflix)
8. Diego Calva — Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
9. Colin Firth — Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
10. Bill Nighy — Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
11. Michael Fassbender — Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
12. Colin Farrell — The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
13. Christian Bale — Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)
14. Brad Pitt — Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
15. Micheal Ward — Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
16. Park Hae-il — Decision to Leave (MUBI)
17. Kelvin Harrison Jr. — Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures)
18. Gabriel LaBelle — The Fabelmans (Universal Studios)
19. Banks Repeta — Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
20. Daniel Giménez Cacho — Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths) (Netflix)
We still don’t know if The Killer is coming out this year, but if it is, I would add Michael Fassbender to this list.
Here are the two top contenders right now as I see them:
The Frontrunners:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Austin Butler’s performance of Elvis is astonishing. While listening to the soundtrack, I realized I’d been listening to Trouble thinking it was Elvis, but it was actually Butler. You can’t tell the difference. I just kept listening to it thinking, man, Elvis was so great. Then I actually looked at the track and I was shocked to see it was AB, not EP.
Butler’s performance is such a massive step forward from his work in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, it’s hard to believe it’s the same actor. It isn’t just the heat he brings to the role, which is significant (you can probably count on one hand those who could summon Elvis’ heat the way Butler does). He just has the spirit. I saw one woman walking out of the theater in sobs after the movie. You can’t get there unless we believe we are watching Elvis, and with this performance we do. He is particularly great as the movie goes along, which is how to bring in a Best Actor win. I’m not saying he’s GOING to win because there are many more contenders left to see. I am saying he does what a winner needs to do: intensify his performance as the movie goes along.
He goes above and beyond, mastering the voice, the movement, the look — everything. And still managing to deliver a deeply emotional performance — it isn’t just mimicry.
Butler’s work here is going to be hard to top, and that’s because a good amount of the Academy is still old enough to know Elvis, and old enough to recognize how great this performance is.
Tom Cruise, Top Gun Maverick
I know, I know. There is no reason to name Tom Cruise as a Best Actor contender unless, you know, you want to save the Oscars from total collapse. It’s not just that. It’s true that most performances nominated in Best Actor are like Butler’s — transformative. But there is something to be said, however, for what Cruise does with this role and, frankly, his career. Tom Cruise and Top Gun: Maverick right now are going to be credited for making the film that saved Hollywood, and doing so through old-fashioned, largely practical effects, big studio movie making. I am hoping the Oscar voters want to bring back the razzle dazzle of really big stars whose movies made a billion dollars for the joy of the public. This is more wishful thinking. I have been doing this job half my life. I know how it goes. But if we’re just looking at the movies so far, Cruise has to be considered.
It’s partly the box office, which can’t be denied (seriously, who was predicting Maverick would break 500 million domestic in just a month?). But it’s also the thrill of going back to the movies and watching such an enormous crowdpleaser as this. It’s a great performance by a great actor, what can I say. There is something to be said for this kind of thing. And come on, who doesn’t want to see Tom Cruise in a tux back at the Oscars? Help us out here, voters. Give the people what they want. FOR ONCE.
Russell Brand points out what Top Gun: Maverick does — it brings us together, unites us in a way that no other movie will. I think that matters. In 2022, when we’re on the brink of civil war, it matters.
https://youtu.be/SbIHWKer7v0
If the Academy doesn’t nominate this film for Best Picture, then they deserve every bad headline they have coming. We just need 800 or so to name the film number one. How hard can that be?
As for Best Actor, that will have to wait until we start seeing some of these movies. This Summer, however, we have our Kings.
Was truly impressed with the performance, but I hated it whenever Colonel Parker showed up.
I kept waiting to the end thinking that Austin Butler will cinch the award if he can be the ‘fat Elvis.’
(Spoiler alert). To me – he never seems to gain weight and the last performance – I wanted the DeNiro/Raging Bull transformation was completely unsure who was really singing ‘Unchained Melody.’ The King himself or Austin Butler…
Just come back from seeing ‘Elvis’ – fan-fucking-tastic! Absolutely brilliant. Luhrmann’s best film by far! Ticks every box for me.
Dave!!!!!!! Hope all is well, my friend.
I haven’t seen it yet, but I’m very excited to!
Tickets were sold out at my local theatre on a Tuesday evening. My mom, who runs a senior citizen retirement community, took several older women and men, lots of them loved it, others felt meh. But can’t please everyone!
Hi Jerm – lovely to read your words. I look forward to reading your thoughts after you’ve seen it. I’ll say nothing else…. 🙂 best to you and the clan
I love male driven tentpole pictures. I was underwhelmed by Top Gun: Maverick and I have no interest in Elvis. I’m sure the same people who loved Bohemian Rhapsody will love it as well. I judged that book by its cover too.
What is interesting to me is that back when the world was still normal I had wished that Chris Hemsworth would be nominated for his work as Thor in Avengers | Endgame because over the span of that film and its predecessor Infinity War I thought he had the best arc and did the best acting. There was something of a hope for Downey and although he’s a great actor overall he didn’t hold a candle to Hemsworth in those films. But you know, I’m a lunatic and always wish for things that won’t happen. In this shitty timeline anyway.
Tom Cruise should have an Oscar by now. I feel like they do to him what they did to Stallone. Like they’re too popular to get an Oscar too. I’d say it was a Cancer thing because they do it to Harrison Ford too but then I remembered that the Academy’s favorite actor is also a Cancer. Maybe they’ll give Hanks a third for his portrayal in Baz’ “masterpiece”.
“I’m sure the same people who loved Bohemian Rhapsody will love it as well. I judged that book by its cover too.“
You are dead wrong. Slapdash Bohemian Rhapsody with its standard “making the band” story and lip synced performance were facile fan service garbage.
Austin Butler’s performance is far and away in a different realm. And Baz Luhrmann, whose style is his substance, has delivered a far more engaging film.
Correct.
I was watching Aliens for the first time, and when I realized that the movie wasn’t about Michael Biehn and was instead a thinly disguised allegory of the maternal instinct in the persona of Sigourney Weaver, I got so angry I threw my Coors Light can at my 40″ flatscreen tv and shattered it. My family was so scared they’re staying in a hotel now. I calmed down after seeing Top Gun: Maverick 17 times this weekend.
“I was watching Aliens for the first time” https://media0.giphy.com/media/Ld7IFYuds4MA8/giphy.gif
I guess I forgot my /sarc tag. Sorry, won’t happen again.
LOL
While Sasha claims that activists are taking the male point of view away from movies and the Oscars, please note that the list here describes 8/9 best picture nominees from last year (because Licorice Pizza has a male lead, as well as a female lead) had male leads and the 9th movie won best supporting actor, implying still a male character that the Academy really considered that character to be a genuinely notable part of the movie, in comparison to for example the lead female performance in the movie, which they didn’t even nominate)
I am an unabashed Tom Cruise lover. His passion and commitment to excellence (even if every movie might not get there) is unparalleled, and he remains in a movie star class of his own, as a no shit leading man for nearly 40 years who, as you say, can now add “saved Hollywood” to his resume. Truly remarkable. I would LOVE to see him nominated for Top Gun: Maverick. I know its wishful thinking and there’s too many performances yet to be seen to know if he should make the top 5, but his acting skill is often overlooked because he’s just so damn good at doing what he does. But there is no other actor who could play his part and his performance is strong – his scene opposite Kilmer is particularly moving. Again, wishful thinking, but I would love to see it. I also can’t wait to see what comes in the next 10 years for Cruise – as great and fun as the action stuff has been, I would love to see him go back to some non-action performances that show off the skill he really has and maybe win that elusive Oscar. He should have won at least two of the three he’s been nominated for and it blows my mind that he didn’t even receive a nomination for Rain Main, which he is amazing in.
He is my WIN for 1988’s Rain Man. I nominate Hoffman. If you actually watch everything that Cruise is doing in Rain Man, you’ll see an incredible performance; just one that isn’t the attention-grabber that is Hoffman’s.
While I haven’t seen enough to make a proper list yet (about 25-30 movies, I’ve got a massive amount of stuff to watch, including Elvis on opening night tomorrow) but at the halfway point of the year, I’d say there is only one choice for best actor so far: Franz Rogowski in Great Freedom. It’s a marvelous performance, at the same time extremely intelligent and physically skillful performance while also expressing a profound emotionality through this character’s journey that can be overwhelming to watch. In general the movie is very good but what Rogowski achieves in it is something special.
I love Rogowski. He is my favorite living actor. I fall in love with every character he has played. (well not in Luzifer, haha)
We are talking about the Oscars. Rogowski is amazing in Great Freedom. Are you really saying here that you think he’s going to be a primary Oscar competitor? He is not.
Of course he is not a primary Oscar competitor. But what a sad thing it would be to limit one’s point of view to what the Oscars might consider. There is only one choice in best actor so far but the Academy is too stupid to ever notice or understand that (not that I think they’ll nominate any performance that has been seen at this point)
Great movie and actor. However it is not a 2022 movie. It was Austria’s candidate for Oscar 2022. It made it to shortlist of 15 competitors but not the final five.
The Austrian Oscar submission has to do with Austrian release dates and Austrian release dates alone. To quote the Oscar rules:
and more notably for this argument
. And though it’s a somewhat unreliable source, IMDB has it as premiering outside of festival and special screenings in March 2022. On top of this, it was not eligible for best picture in 2021. Of course it varies how people choose to how they approach eligibility, but at least personally for the sake of comparability to most lists and for certain practical reasons prefer to use the US release date.
But it seems that I was incorrect about a notable element. I remembered that if a film didn’t get nominated, it could be eligible in other categories in the following years (if I’m not mistaken, City of God did this) but apparently that is not the case and thus the submission means that the film, and the performance, will not even be eligible this year. But then again, it’s certainly not the first time and it probably won’t be the last time that something phenomenal was not eligible due to reasons that seem quite arbitrary at least to me
You can see it here: Austria submitted that movie in 2021.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submissions_to_the_94th_Academy_Awards_for_Best_International_Feature_Film
Tom Cruise can get nominated for Top Gun: Maverick…as a Best Picture nominee. Alongside Jerry Bruckheimer (his 1st ever Oscar nomination), David Ellison (also 1st ever Oscar nomination), and Christopher McQuarrie (hasn’t been nominated since winning Best Original Screenplay for The Usual Suspects).
Somehow, I can’t take Tom Cruise seriously as a Best Actor Oscar contender. There’s nothing transformative about his new ”Top Gun” performance. And nothing we haven’t already seen from a younger Cruise from the old ”Top Gun” in 1986. Maverick is not a role of complexity and great range. To steal an old line from Dorothy Parker, he ”runs the gamut of emotions from A to B.” Yes, Cruise has 3 past Oscar nominations for acting, but the last one was for ”Magnolia” in 2000. I miss the younger actor who did ”Rain Man” (1988) with Dustin Hoffman and ”The Color of Money” (1986) with Paul Newman, and who challenged himself in ”Born on the Fourth of July” (1989) and ”Jerry Maguire” (1996). In the past couple of decades, he seems to have settled for cushier paychecks in action-adventure franchises, like ”Jack Reacher” and ”Mission: Impossible.” I’d love to see him in a drama or comedy that really surprises us (and doesn’t require stunt work).
Voters who are aware that Tom Cruise is one of the producers of Top Gun: Maverick should be comfortable with nominating it (and thus him) for Best Picture, rather than finding a slot for him in Best Actor.
It would be a “career” Oscar, recognizing his contributions to the industry, rather than the finer points of this particular performance. Manywinners don’t win for their best work, they get their Oscars long after their best work is behind them. Likely this will happen to Glenn Close at some point in the next couple of years like it happened to Jessica CHastain last year.
I’d say that there is quite a lot in this performance that is not in the first movie (in which Cruise doesn’t give a particularly good performance). It’s more in line with things like Mission: Impossible – Fallout, for which Cruise would have been completely worthy of a nomination (for example my lineup in 2018 would have been Ethan Hawke for First Reformed, Joaquin Phoenix for You Were Never Really Here, Stephan James for If Beale Street Could Talk, Tom Cruise for Mission: Impossible – Fallout and Yoo Ah-in for Burning in that order). Often chasing the notion of a transformation or an actor doing something “new” is not the only thing that matters (just think of all the bad performances that have gotten Oscar nominations just because there was makeup, a physical transformation or a press tour advertising how deep someone went into some character involved or the actor did something that wasn’t expected of them), sometimes it’s just about doing what you do incredibly well
But didn’t she say that about Kate Hepburn, so didn’t the great Kate’s career prove her to be totally full of crap? ha. I would not mind if both Cruise and Butler were in Best Pic as long as they don’t beat out someone I like better.
I do see Sasha’s point that it would be harmful if both were left out in favor of some bubble critical darling whose movie was seen by ten people. It would be better if they were left out (if they are) by big league directed movies like Fabelmans, Babylon, Killers of the Flower Moon, etc.
Yes, Parker famously said Hepburn ”ran the gamut of emotions from A to B” in a 1933 Broadway play called ”The Lake.” Even though Kate would go on to a great career, not every performance was a success, especially early in her career. For the record, ”The Lake” was a flop that closed after 55 performances. And she had other bombs, like ”These Days” (1928), which ran only 8 performances. And her flops weren’t just onstage. During the ’30s, she had a string of movie flops, and a 1938 exhibitors survey labeled her ”box office poison,” so RKO let her go.
Anyway, I’ve seen many reviews of ”Elvis,” raving about Butler and speculating about his Oscar potential. I haven’t seen that same kind of Oscar buzz for Cruise.
I think you mistook me for someone who doesn’t have an encyclopedic knowledge of movie history.
And I think you mistook me for someone who didn’t know who Parker’s quote was referring to or Hepburn’s history, so I guess we’re even. 😉
What are your favorite Hepburn performances? I’ve seen many of her movies and am looking for some to rewatch. I wish I could get my vcr to work because I have “Stage Door” on vhs tape. Other movies of hers that I really appreciated were Morning Glory, Bringing Up Baby, Lion in Winter, Alice Adams, and the unsuccessful “Break of Hearts.” I still remember liking that after seeing it at least 25 years ago. I had a phase where I watched all the classic films I could from our local library and AMC.
There isn’t anything transformative, I agree. But it’s a stellar turn, and a “star” turn. Other actors have won for lesser work. I think the stigma of it being a Top Gun movie is what could hurt him over anything else.
The one thing you didn’t mention, Sasha, that needs to be included in every assessment of Cruise, is that he’s been nominated 3 times. For bonus points, point out how different each of those performances was. But otherwise you are spot on, welcome to the club. Sometimes royalty needs to be appropriately crowned.
As for Butler, we shall see. It’s a long road and he could be forgotten if there are enough other contenders. Malek crept in because of Bohemian Rhapsody’s box office, which didn’t start off great if I recall, but the film had legs, and everyone agreed it was because of Malek.
But I do think Cruise is in the discussion unless Paramount and Cruise mount no campaign for it, and you know Cruise probably already has hired the best in the business.
As for virile young men as lead actor, you are right (Cruise isn’t young and virile but he projects that he is) they are a driving force. I’ve been reading for awhile now that hollywood leading men are virtually extinct. But hooray for the Endangered Species Act, some legislation actually works!
Dear Awards Daily,
At last, an article that I can get behind 100%. As I sit here in my wifebeater (with spaghetti sauce stains), drinking a nice cold Bud, and watching WWE highlights, you’ve reminded me what it means to be a MAN. The old lady wanted to go see some dopey film with writing on the screen, but instead I’m making her go see Top Gun: Maverick again for the 8th time. Now if we could only get the rest of the country back to how it was in the 50’s.
Yours truly,
Alfred Bundy
President of No Ma’am
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/03fc1477cfd296ff5107f74c647ae8ea3cf49148b6aefa879c3c51f49a93d47b.gif
Butler is looking as good for a nomination as anyone could in June.
As for early birds, I would add Alexander Skarsgard to the mix whose highly acclaimed, brutal turn could garner him some love from critics groups in December so he might just get the unexpected boost necessary to make a dent in the Best Actor race even with an April release date.
Apparently not Oscar-eligible (a shame if true, I mean how hard it is to book a single theatre screen for a single week, Hulu ?) but Daryl McCormack also deserves to be singled out for his subtle, layered work in Good Luck To You, Leo Grande. A star was born there for sure.
Still reading but this didn’t happen:
“Atonement — ensemble”
Believe me, I wish that it had. One of my favorites to date.
I think the idea is that there was an ensemble, not that it got an ensemble nomination (although that should probably have been noted as “supporting actress nominee, male/female leads, ensemble”)
That makes more sense!
Spot on assessment of Butler, and his chances, Sasha. AMPAS skews older. I don’t think they’ll be able to overlook, or forget over the next six months, how fine he is in the role.