Jordan Ruimy is reporting that there’s a small chance Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers might get a qualifying run by year’s end. “Might.” I would be very excited about this, as not only is Sideways one of my favorite films of all time, my daughter and I have made it a family tradition to watch the movie and then drive up to Sideways country, the Santa Ynez Valley — Solvang, Buellton, etc. If The Holdovers does join the fray, I think it’s potentially a game-changer. At least to my mind, as I’m such an Alexander Payne fan. I really do love most of. his films but Sideways is right up there with the best films ever made.
We haven’t yet seen what is on offer in Toronto, or New York, or at AFI. I can, however, see that the films in Telluride at least are the first crop of movies born out of post-2020 cultural revolution on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion mandates. Although the Academy guidelines haven’t been formally put in place yet (that will happen in 2024) it seems clear, at least to me, that studios already have many of those policies in place. They are making sure they meet the expectations, either with casting or storytelling or filmmakers.
I think there might be some movies that are in the race this year without such representation — perhaps coming from other countries where they are not as closely monitored to make sure they don’t break any rules. But the ones I saw, without exception, were films that either brought in an aspect of racism, or an LGBTQ element. I bring this up because it was noticeable to me. It is a taboo subject to even bring up but it is hard to analyze the Oscars without commenting on what has changed.
I’m not saying this is a bad thing. It’s just noticeable. Armageddon Time is based on a true story of two kids growing up together. One is Black and the other white. It illustrates the differences in their trajectories. One is supported, ushered through towards the success, the other is given no good path to success and seems to be pushed into crime as the only option. This works very well, I thought, not just because it’s true but because there is value there beyond preaching to the audience. It really does do what many are trying to do — show the disparity between black and white in America.
In Empire of Light, Michael Ward plays a Black immigrant and thus, is mocked and abused by racists and nationalists in a seaside town in 1980s England. But that’s a backstory to the main story – and thus, some critics have said it felt “performative,” as he was really the stand-in for Sam Mendes. This movie was also based on his upbringing.
Now we have two movies dealing with race as a part of the story and to point out the ignorance of the past. And both also nod casually to Trump and his supporters (which bothers me personally but I know most others don’t feel that way). I figure, this is going to be how films reflect the era we just lived through.
Meanwhile, in Women’s Talking there is a transgender character in the film (who does not appear in the book) and there is perhaps unnatural acceptance of gender ideology exhibited in a community that wouldn’t ordinarily be amenable, to put it politely.
TÁR features a gay woman in the lead role who has a predator’s eye for promising young women. She is also someone who arrogantly slams “cancel culture,” or dismisses complaints of Generation-Z’s perception of “old, cis-gendered white composers.” Then the movie sets about punishing her for speaking out against that mindset.
These are just some examples of probably what will become a bit of a trend, or a running theme in movies coming up. I think there must be some sort of diversity coordinator, like an intimacy coordinator, behind the scenes making sure there is enough representation in any movie, but especially those earmarked for Oscar. I have no idea if that’s true. No one is going to ask that question or do that research. They just don’t want to be screamed at by Twitter.
Critics seem to be coming down harder on some movies for what David Carr would have called “stunt casting,” and they go easy on some other movies perceived to achieve the same goal more smoothly. Perhaps it just depends on whether or not the changes feel organic or performative.
Where many movie-goers are concerned, there is already a backlash brewing against what they think of as politically-oriented, or “woke” movies coming out of Hollywood. And then a backlash against the backlash. I have a feeling this is going to be a fairly heated topic (outside of the Film Twitter bubble, that is).
Let’s get on with it, shall we?
What has popped so far? Let’s start with impressions in Venice.
Best Actor
Brendan Fraser, The Whale (great performance, so-so movie)
Hugh Jackman, The Son (great performance, so-so movie)
Colin Farrell, Banshees of Inisherin (great performance, they say great movie)
Best Actress
Ana de Armas, Blonde (great performance, so-so movie)
Cate Blanchett, TÁR (great performance, most say great movie)
Then we get to Telluride, which added:
Best Actor
Michael Ward, Empire of Light (great performance, I say great movie)
Bill Nighy, Living
Best Actress
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (great performance, I say great movie)
Rooney Mara, Women Talking
Supporting Actor
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time
Jaylin Webb, Armageddon Time
Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Anne Thompson has dropped a fresh batch of predictions:
August 29 – Best Picture
September 7 – Best Actor
September 7 – Best Actress
September 8 – Best Supporting Actor
September 8 – Best Supporting Actress
Toronto is going to screen a great many movies none of us has yet seen, and if it’s true that The Holdovers might be coming out this year instead of being held over, then that’s great news but it will be something we have to wait for.
I still think some of the best movies of the year won’t play at the festivals. Top Gun Maverick has made $700 million, Elvis has made $150 million and Everything Everywhere All at Once has made $70 million.
In any kind of sane film industry, all three would be up for Best Picture, regardless of whether the people in First Class can appreciate their success. It matters that they made money, especially now when theaters are in such danger of bankruptcy.
To that end, I offer up a pre-Toronto list for the fun of it — to be taken with a huge grain of salt, as in the blind leading the blind. It’s obviously almost a waste of time to even post these, but hey, it’s Friday. As my dad would say, “what else have you got to do?”
Best Picture (in alpha order)
Armageddon Time
Avatar: Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
The Greatest Beer Run Ever
TÁR
Women Talking
Alts: Top Gun Maverick, The Banshees of Inershirin, She Said, The Woman King, Wakanda Forever
Best Director
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Jim Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Todd Field, TÁR
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Alts. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light, Baz Luhrmann, Elvis, The Daniels, Everything Everywhere
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Bill Nighy, Living
Hugh Jackman, The Son
Zac Efron, The Greatest Beer Run Ever
Alts. Michael Ward, Empire of Light, Adam Driver, White Noise, Colin Farrell, Banshees of Inisherin
Best Actress
Michelle Yeoh, Everything, Everywhere All At Once
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Alts. Rooney Mara, Women Talking, Viola Davis, The Woman King
Best Supporting Actor
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Toby Jones, Empire of Light
Alts. Jaylin Webb, Armageddon Time, Tom Hanks, Elvis, Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Best Supporting Actress
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time
Alts: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Nina Hoss, TÁR, Laura Dern, The Son
Cinematography
Babylon
Empire of Light
Bardo
Avatar: Way of Water
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Final point: I do think that CODA won last year more because it was an uplifting story and not a political lecture, and it didn’t take itself too seriously. Yes, that they were making history with a predominantly deaf cast added to it, but in general, when times are tough voters tend to reach for things that make them feel good. Many of the movies dropped into Oscar season tend to not be all that feelgood. I’m not even sure how many of these movies end on an uplifting note. I would definitely keep an eye on any movies that make people happy.
After the last few years, I am so in need of big, emotional uncynical fare like Empire of Light and The Fabelmans. Cannot wait to see them and hope they get a big emotional uncynical welcome.
After the last few years, I am so in need of big, emotional uncynical fare like Empire of Light and The Fabelmans. Cannot wait to see them and hope they get a big emotional uncynical welcome.
A24 could have multiple acting nominations this year. Potential three or four nominations for Everything Everywhere, Fraser in The Whale, and Pope in The Inspection and Lawrence in Causeway are all real possibility.
And Aftersun as well.
Will there be nomination for that film as well?
I hope so …
In acting? Or in other category? I know it’s highly acclaimed and lots of people loved it and rank it as their absolute favourite this year, including Ehrlich. Maybe critics will push it. We’ll see what Gotham does and whether major critics groups go big for it. I think it could be. TAR, All The Beauty and The Bloodshed and Aftersun might dominate critics awards.
Surprised not a single mention (not even in the bit about Venice impressions) of Hong Chau, who in The Whale is a perfect counterpart to Fraser. Honestly, I could see her winning, it’s a perfect role and she is great. The movie needs to be liked, though… I absolutely loved it, it floored me.
Where is that “so so” coming from? 85 on RT, 70 on MS.
CODA benefitted because all of the other movies had major flaws. Like they were boring.
there was just a dearth of movies that were both well-made and readily accessible
Sure it helped that most of the cast was deaf. But it didn’t win because they wanted to reward the deaf cast. You see, by focusing on a deaf family, the film was instantly more interesting than its competition as it was something we’d never really seen before, it made us think about things we’ve not thought of before. Having Sound of Metal come out the year before probably helped a great deal. Sound of Metal was the better movie of the two but the competition was stiffer in 2020.
I think the two films that are in the lead now are Armageddon Time and The Banshees of Inisherin. Both seem to be well made enough for critics to like and accessible enough for audiences to like.
The movie out in circulation that looks most interesting to me and no one seems to be talking about is Athena.
I actually think the competition was less stiff in 2020. COVID really wiped that one out.
Athena is a 2-hour long loud Adidas commercial with a socio-political dimension, ridiculously epic music and far too many long shots. So much is happening, so little is analyzed.
IMO, of course.
Back to topic… where I feel at this point it may be… (* winner)
Picture
Babylon *
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
The Greatest Beer Run Ever
Tàr
Till
Triangle of Sadness
Wakanda Forever (wild card)
Women Talking
Director
Chazelle, Babylon
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Field, Tár
Ôstlund, Triangle of Sadness
Spielberg, The Fabelmans *
alternates: Polley, Farrelly, McDonagh
Actress
de Armas, Blonde
Blanchett, Tàr
Mara, Women Talking
Robbie, Babylon *
Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Actor
Efron, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (wild card, Robin Williams got nom’d for Good Morning Vietnam, which hit the same beats)
Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Fraser, The Whale *
Nighy, Living
Pitt, Babylon
Supp. Actresss
Chau, The Whale *
Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Goldberg, Till
McDormand, Women Talking
Morton, She Said
Supp. Actor
Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (cat. fraud alert!)
Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once *
Rogen, The Fabelmans
but anything goes, of course… 2 months before field starts being clear.
You think Babylon is winning?
Perhaps too divisive to win Best Picture but could easily be nominations leader if it’s good.
yes. A movie about Hollywood, Chazelle shockingly lost Best Picture for La La Land and they just love Chazelle… at this point is quite possible that it takes techs, Actress and Picture. But it is still unclear…
I think people are overlooking Armegeddon Time. And why the Greatest Beer Run? Even if it’s good, how will such a silly looking film be nominated for Best Picture?
because it is a movie that LOOKS silly, but – if you saw Good Morning, Vietnam you should know by now – it has written “poignant” all over it, from the trailer… this could be a potential punch in the guts difficult to ignore.
I’d wait for the reviews before we can be sure it isn’t as silly as it looks
the trailer heavily hints it will be a fun, but poignant run, with the central character actually learning from the experience, about the traumatic experience of war.
Comedy/Musical alert: Radcliffe is scoring some raves for “Weird”, which is also doing fine (overperforming, if you ask me) with critics… let’s see when more reviews get in… way more “Dewey Cox” than “Bohemian Rhapsody”, which is great news, to me…
if he gains any traction it won’t hurt that he will be opening off-Broadway in December in a revival of Merrily We Roll Along. It will likely be a very in demand ticket for the New York crowd.
I still think that out of the HP trio, Grint is the Natural Born Actor (and the best), but Watson and Radcliffe are having the best career choices and most successful careers… and I can only blame it on Grint’s physique and how few roles go to ginger men… probably would have been different if “CBGB” would have been better received (he was really breaking the Ron Weasly image, completely, in his little role, opposite Rickman/Snape), but well, let’s see what the future brings for all the Potter kids, there is genuine talent in that series, and not only the trio.
well Nicholas Hoult has been the most impressive in The Great. Grint is the best thing on that Apple show about the demon baby, The Servant. I loved Watson in Perks of Being a Wallflower but really haven’t seen her in anything else.
Will it be eligible though? Let’s see if it’s released in theatres.
IMDB alert… with over 1,500 votes, “The Whale” sits at an amazing 9.5 average.
I mean, WOW.
I think audiences will eat it up. Critics have had their knives out for Aronofsky for more than a decade.
I absolutely loved it (even though I was a mess in the end),but didn’t expect the rating.
It’s a very moving and powerful movie, with a perfect cast and a fine script (super sharp dialogue). I think the Academy could love it more than the critics. Fraser will definitely be in, but Hong Chau deserves as well.
TÁR and Empire of Light remain my most anticipated although I’d probably now add
Armageddon Time to that more just to delight in another great Sir Anthony performance than anything else.
The Whale looks great. It could be Fraser’s comeback to Hollywood fantasy. When I was a boy i always liked him in School Ties and The Mummy, Encino Man. Unfortunately he’s much older now and has run into some trouble but always has managed to come back to hollywood.
Cannot wait for Tar and The Fabelmans. Empire of light looks good as well. Better movies better times as we look into fall and holidays.
Sideways is so good! I doubt we’ll see The Holdovers this year but time will tell.
Cannot wait for Banshees
woa! Finally acknowledging Ke Huy Quan?
BTW, considering the utterly shit racial situation in 1980’s Thatcher England is pretty well known by anyone with even a passing musical knowledge of the Clash and the Specials and the like, I’m not sure the plot of Empire of Light can be accused of slagging the MAGA cultists even in passing
Seeing as every Best Picture nominee from the past few years would have satisfied the new DEI mandates, I don’t see why the DEI mandates would affect the content of movies today.
It’s *painfully* easy to meet the metrics the Academy spelled out, and people who actually knew things pointed that out at the time.
Serioulsy, you would actually have to actively try NOT to qualify!
Love the Prediction’s Friday column as usual, but I just wanted to point out that there is a character in “Women Talking” who could technically be considered transgender in our modern lingo. Nettie changed her name to Melvin after being raped and attacked, a fact the other women in the novel are made uncomfortable by given that they aren’t equipped with the language to understand given their circumstances (I finished the book this week and loved it). I did just see that a non-binary actor was cast as Nettie/Melvin in the film, which definitely sounds like an artistic decision in the adaptation to emphasize the transition than is elaborated on in the novel. That being said, looking forward to seeing the film!
If Curtis actually pulls off the nomination, then Everything is winning Best Picture. If Stephanie Hsu gets a nomination, Everything could win Best Picture.
Don’t discount Charlbi Dean sneaking into Best Actress, we’ve seen this kind of arc before when an actor in a contending film dies young.
Historically I don’t think there is any correlation between over/underperforming with acting nominations and winning/losing Best Picture.
Roma, for example, was considered to have an outside shot at maybe getting one acting nomination. Then it surprised and got two. Then it lost Best Picture.
My clutzy brain was merely thinking that if Curtis got a nomination for an extended cameo that the film would be showing a LOT of love.
Maybe it’s really if the Daniels hit directing
That seems logical, it just doesn’t seem to happen that way. Directing/Screenplay/Editing are the key.
Directing seems to be detaching itself from BP more and more though
Jamie lee Curtis, always underrated and always recognizable her performance in EEEAO is cool.
yes, but she really can’t/shouldn’t get in, if Hsu doesn’t. Same with Hong and Quan… nominating JLC instead of Hsu or Hong instead of Quan would be a robbery
JLC is NOT an extended cameo, It’s the Supporting Performance, as technically both Quan and Hsu are almost co-leads with Yeoh, being Hong and Curtis the clear supporting players, and both are also key for the film…
at this point, the only Oscar win I am kind of sure that EEAAO will pull off (I mean, it’s just too loved to go emptyhanded) is Ke Huy Quan (almost unbeatable narrative, plus being the true heart of the film). In order of likelyhood of wins…
1. Supporting Actor (Quan)
2. Original Screenplay
3. Film Editing
4. Picture
5. Lead Actress (Yeoh)
6. Director
7. VFX
8. Make Up
9. Supporting Actress (Hsu) then, Curtis
10. Costume Design
11. Make Up
12. Production Design
13. Score
14. Cinematography
Something from earlier in the year will prevail this year whether it’s everything everywhere all at once or top gun: maverick getting noms i think it’’s safe to say that oscar 95 will not be all festival gutsy, it’ll come from acclaimed audiences who don’t normally get out to see the films.
1) Thirteen Lives
2) Avatar The Way of Water
3) Women Talking
4) Babylon
5) The Whale
after that idk, I guess toronto will tell
???
What?
Thirteen Lives ??? Best Picture ???
I AM NOT DRINKING ANY F**KING MERLOT!