Till screened for the New York Film Festival and has received, at the moment, a 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, but most of those reviews zero in on Deadwyler’s performance. That seems to indicate she is a strong contender for the Best Actress race, at least at the moment.
This is a good time to check in on that race, to see who is being touted as “ahead” amid the pundits. Checking in with Greg Ellwood at The Playlist who wrote this up prior to Till premiering in New York:
LIKELY
Michelle Williams, “The Fablemans”
Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Viola Davis, “The Woman King”
Cate Blanchett, “TAR”
ALMOST THERE
Olivia Colman, “Empire of Light”
Margot Robbie, “Babylon”*
Emma Thompson, “Good Luck To You, Leo Grande”
Florence Pugh, “The Wonder”
Danielle Deadwyler, “Till”
POSSIBLE
Ana de Armas, “Blonde”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Causeway”
Jessica Chastain, “The Good Nurse”
Zoe Kazan, “She Said”*
Carey Mulligan, “She Said”*
LONGSHOTS
Emma Corrin, “Lady Chatterley’s Lover”
Taylor Russell, “Bones & All”
Naomi Ackie, “I Want To Dance With Somebody”
Zar Amir Ebrahimi, “Holy Spider”
The only name on his list of “almost there” contenders would be Margot Robbie for Babylon, whose performance has not yet been seen. I am holding a spot for her because of her status in the industry right now, Damien Chazelle’s status. Not to mention, Babylon is going to be among the few Big Oscar Movies.
So that leaves us with these:
Michelle Williams, “The Fablemans”
Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Viola Davis, “The Woman King”
Cate Blanchett, “TAR”
Margot Robbie, Babylon
One of these names will have to be sidelined for Deadwyler to make the cut. Additionally, Empire of Light’s Olivia Colman in one of the best performances she’s ever given will also have to find a place. That leaves us with seven names, potentially.
The three key elements that drive a performance for Best Actress are:
Likability of Star
Likability of Role
Likability of Movie
It is always great to have all three. Frances McDormand winning for Nomadland is a great example of that. Some of these will test the limits of the “likability of movie” part. Obviously, Michelle Williams has a green light on all three; at the moment, she’s the only one.
A well-known and popular actress will often take priority over an actress less known in a movie not as prominent. Viola Davis is an icon in Hollywood at the moment, which gives her the “likability of star” advantage. Ditto for Care Blanchett, Emma Thompson, Olivia Colman, and I would say, Michelle Yeoh, who is finally cashing in a long career that the Academy has unrecognized.
Regarding the likability of role, we must count Deadwyler in that group, as she’s the mother of Emmett Till who became a Civil Rights activist. The two reporters who hunted down the Harvey Weinstein story get some cred for Zoe Kazan and Carey Mulligan.
Once the Oscar nominations are in, we can look at which movies got the most nominations, including Best Picture, to decide how many have “likability of movie.” At the moment, we expect, of all of these, Best Picture nominations for:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
TAR
The Fabelmans
Babylon
The maybes
She Said
The Woman King
Till
Missing from this list is Rooney Mara as a possible Best Actress contender for Women Talking. She will potentially have all three: likability of star/role/movie. She must be then considered, even if two other actresses from the film could get into Supporting.
At the moment, my predictions would look something like this:
Michelle Williams, “The Fablemans”
Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Viola Davis, “The Woman King”
Cate Blanchett, “TAR”
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Alts: Olivia Colman, Empire of Light/Rooney Mara, She Said
But one should not get locked in too early to any of this. It’s a wide open race at the moment.
