In the Oscar punditry world, we have our own version of “if you know, you know.” That means we put everything together, based on all the precedents that have proven reliable in the past, and come up with a conclusion that makes sense. The factors that decide this vary. It can sometimes be that someone has given an unequivocally superb performance, head and shoulders above the nearest rivals. It’s a performance that’s so good no one will dispute the win — like Helen Mirren in The Queen.
Sometimes overdue status helps drive a consensus accord among pundits regarding which actress should win. We saw that with Glenn Close and The Wife. Although she lost to Olivia Colman because The Favourite came equipped with important “top of the ticket” nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director. The Wife did not have that buttress. The only thing that would have handed Close the win would have been love for her personally or love for her character.
Recently, identity has come strongly into play as Hollywood and the Oscars have fundamentally altered how they decide who should win awards. Readers of this site know that this was the main focus of conversation starting just before Halle Berry and Denzel Washington won in the lead categories 2001.
It quieted down for a while but then roared back to life around 2012, or 2013, especially so after the #oscarssowhite hashtag started a mini-revolution. Since Halle Berry won in 2001, no Black actress has won in the category.
In general, Best Actress is not about transformative works. Frances McDormand won for Nomadland, I think, based on these three key conditions:
Likability of Star
Likability of Role
Likability of Movie
This year, at first, it seemed like the consensus would be that Michelle Yeoh was destined to win for Everything Everywhere All at Once. If that is indeed wat transpires, it will be for several reasons, the first being how overdue she is for recognition. The second, the movie, is a phenomenon. Third, she will make history as the first Asian actress to win in the lead.
https://youtu.be/pPoYhwaZ9rg
But then Cate Blanchett appeared in TÁR, which quickly became a critics’ darling. And that has tilted the consensus among many pundits in her favor. She is likely to dominate the critics’ awards as a result. She could ride that wave all the way to her third Oscar win.
For both Everything Everywhere and TÁR they are expected to be nominated across the board at the top of the ticket, which means a win in the Best Actress category could mean the one big win for the movie.
But both of these movies might hit a snag in the “likability of role/likability of movie” because they are both complex performances in films that aren’t exactly easy sits, depending on the mindset of each individual viewer.
We don’t yet know how the Academy will respond to them overall. We think we know, but we don’t know.
Much easier option to make that call would be Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans. She meets all three conditions for star/role/movie. The Fabelmans is a warm-hearted, likable movie across the board, and you might easily fall in love with the character she plays.
Her only obstacle is that Best Actress, like Best Actor, doesn’t usually go with a Best Picture win. So if you’re predicting The Fabelmans to win the top prize, Williams might be less likely to land. Nomadland was the first Best Actress winner since 2004’s Million Dollar Baby to win both Picture and Actress. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen. It’s just that voters tend to spread wealth.
Another big challenger in this category and a formidable contender is Danielle Deadwyler in Till. The film will likely be well received across the board. She has the likeability of role factor in ways that can’t be matched by anyone else, that’s for sure. The Oscar team must work hard to ensure she’s well-known by the end of the Oscar season. She isn’t a known name heading in, so that will be the challenge if they want to bring in a win.
There’s nobody hotter than Margot Robbie right now, so she has “likability of star” locked in and might present the only real challenge to Cate Blanchett, who also has “likability of star” locked in. We don’t yet know what people will make of Babylon overall. Many will be seeing it next week.
Viola Davis has a strong shot at a nomination for The Woman King, given that she received such great reviews. She has “likability of star” and “likability of movie,” but when it comes to the role she plays there is a slight caveat in that the film has received some dissection in the press of late of about what the story leaves out. If Davis rises in the race, that conversation could get louder. Maybe it matters, maybe it doesn’t. Either way, she is an American treasure, the movie is very well-liked, and Davis is overdue for a Lead Actress win.
Olivia Colman gives probably the best performance of her career in Sam Mendes’ Empire of Light. Because a handful of disgruntled critics stomped all over it out of Telluride it seems to have lost some momentum, or presumed momentum as the case may be, but the film and Colman’s chances can always be revived if she is nominated at SAG or the Globes. It is one of a handful of films, like The Fabelmans, that is a tribute to movies in movie theaters and why they matter, maybe now more than ever.
Let’s take a quick look at Best Actress in the era of the expanded ballot:
(bold obviously indicates a Best Picture nomination, and bold wine indicates a Best Picture winner)
2009 — Sandra Bullock, the Blind Side
2010 — Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2011 — Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
2012 — Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
2013 — Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2014 — Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2015 — Brie Larson, Room
2016 — Emma Stone, La La Land
2017 — Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
2018 — Olivia Colman, The Favourite
2019 — Renee Zellweger, Judy
2020 — Frances McDormand, Nomadland
2021 — Jessica Chastain, Eyes of Tammy Faye
More often than not, the winner is in a Best Picture nominee, but very rarely in a winner.
Here are the number of Best Picture nominees with accompanying Lead Actress nominees:
2009–2/10
2010–3/10
2011–1/9
2012–4/9 <—tied for the most
2013–3/9
2014–1/8
2015–2/8
2016–1/9
2017–4/9 <–tied for the most
2018–3/8
2019–2/9
2020–2/8
2021–0/10 <—the least
Let’s head over to Gold Derby to see what their Odds and Rankings are for Best Actress:
The odds and rankings look like this:
- Cate Blanchett, TÁR
- Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
- Danielle Deadwyler, Till
- Margot Robbie, Babylon
- Viola Davis, The Woman King
- Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
- Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody
- Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
- Ana de Armas, Blonde
Next, let’s look at Erik Anderson on Best Actress:
- Cate Blanchett – TÁR
- Danielle Deadwyler – Till
- Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
- Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody
___ - Olivia Colman – Empire of Light
- Viola Davis – The Woman King
- Margot Robbie – Babylon
- Ana de Armas – Blonde
- Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway
- Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
- Zoe Kazan – She Said
- Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse
- Rooney Mara – Women Talking
- Florence Pugh – The Wonder
- Taylor Russell – Bones and All
- Tang Wei – Decision to Leave
- Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling
- Zar Emir Ebrahimi – Holy Spider
- Mia Goth – Pearl
And now, looking at our superstar at Gold Derby, Joyce Eng’s top five:
- Cate Blanchett – TÁR
- Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
- Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Viola Davis – The Woman King
- Danielle Deadwyler – Till
Nearly all of the experts at Gold Derby have Cate Blanchett as frontrunner for TÁR in this category.
But one thing to know about Best Actress. All five are rarely in Best Picture nominees. It has never happened in the era of the expanded ballot. That might help when it comes to predicting Best Picture.
With all of this said, my predictions, for now, are as follows:
- Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Cate Blanchett, TÁR
- Danielle Deadwyler, Till
- Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
- Margot Robbie, Babylon
____ - Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
- Viola Davis, The Woman King
- Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody
- Rooney Mara, Women Talking
- Mia Goth, Pearl
And that, as they say, is that.
I predict-
Blanchett
Williams
Yeoh
Deadwyler
Robbie
I think there is a very strong quartet already with the 5th slot reserved for a still-unseen Robbie.
Michelle Yeah
Cate Blanchett
Danielle Deadwyler
Viola Davis
Margot Robbie
I would be very surprised to see anyone else in this category on Oscar Nominations Morning, although I do expect a few worthy others to pop up here and there throughout the season :
Jennifer Lawrence (CC, GG)
Emma Thompson (GG, Bafta?)
Naomi Ackie (GG, Bafta)
Olivia Colman (CC)
Rooney Mara (GG)
Ana de Armas (SAG)
Florence Pugh (SAG)
Tang Wei (LAFCA)
Taylor Russell (NYFC)
My surprise SAG picks are mostly due to the AFTRA effect that gave us nod-leader House of Gucci and Ensemble nominee Don’t Look Up last year (don’t even get me started). Not that Pugh (Don’t Worry Darling) and Ana de Armas didn’t deliver excellent performances (they did), more like I expect AFTRA voters to go for them for the controversy factor. As in the non-film/TV side of SAG voters (AFTRA) will be aware of those performances much more than the more cinephile contenders in the mix this season.
Emma Thompson would be a shoo-in for a Bafta nod if not for the juried voting and from my list of second-tier contenders I think Naomi Ackie has the best shot to break through but the bar is already pretty high so she will need raves to make a dent in this A-list heavy race as a relative unknown so late in the game.
As for Michelle Williams, I think once Universal realises that she is struggling to get even the nods let alone wins in lead, they will quickly change course and start campaigning her in supporting. And even if they don’t, I do firmly believe she will end up in supporting on Oscar Nominations Morning. It would be smart to get back to that wise plan soon though otherwise this could be another Balfe situation.
I love your typo, Phantom – ‘Michelle Yeah’ – sums up for a lot of us our feelings about her!
Haha, the way I didn’t even clock it even though I usually read back before posting.
Agreed, here is hoping it will be a Michelle YEAHHHHH season.
Yes i really hope Michelle Williams lands back in Support.
I couldn’t agree more with you that Michelle Williams should get back in Supporting, leaving room for another of the soooo many astonishing ladies this year. I love Michelle to pieces but I feel like she’ll definitely struggle to earn nods let alone the wins needed to keep the momentum and make her a threat in Lead.
She is not the lead character, the film is not from her POV, to try to pass her off as lead or even co-lead sounds like complete nonsense to me. And to think, without this completely unnecessary category fraud foolishness, she could have been a sweeper in supporting this season.
But Universal seems to be all over the place in the actress categories this season, putting a supporting role in lead (Williams) and at the same time trying to place a headliner in supporting (Mulligan).
So true. I don’t understand what Universal is doing with the category placements this year either. And on a sidenote after being snubbed both for the win and even for a nomination so many times and after being robbed of a much deserved Best Actress Oscar a couple of years ago I don’t wanna see my beloved Carey Mulligan get a “we’re sorry” sorta Oscar in Supporting for a film in which as you rightfully point out is a headliner. What a mess indeed.
Margot Robbie. No one is even close. You’ll see. Don’t sink to the bottom of Glenn Close Pond clutching that Cate Blanchett anchor. It’s over. I didn’t steer you wrong on CODA last year. Hear me now and believe me later.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fe968495a3129666f9be8fa0c59bcbb12d1dd0138c2396b29ed1d88ed2f9e5bf.gif
saw the trailer today on a BIG screen! Margot’s performance looks pretty epic.
She’s always so fantastic. I saw David O Russell’s Amsterdam the other day and despite that film being an utter mess (beautifully shot though I must say) Margot was once again fantastic in that as well. Ever since The Wolf Of Wall Street I’ve yet to see her in anything where she’s anything less than stellar. And I too love her turn in Babylon even by the trailer alone. Can’t wait to see the film.
No top ten list is complete without Aftersun and Close in it.
THIS!!! Any Best Picture list without those two small WONDERS of a film (I mean Close especially is the greatest film of the entire 2022 thus far imo) is utterly ridiculous.
Good
Has anyone seen Ashe Said that can speak to the visuals? I saw the trailer in the theater today and I just can’t wrap my head round what they were thinking….
I have seen it, but what do you mean by visuals? It plays like a more intense Spotlight btw.
Sorry, I meant Women Talking…
Hmm talking on this subject is likely to spoil the film, my favorite of the year so far.
Banshees is much darker than I thought it would be.
If you’re going to commit an act of Yubitsume in a movie it should make sense ! The Yakuza did it better !
I didn’t understand it. Did you?
Just finished watching Causeway. What a wonderful, deeply felt, intimate small scale drama about human connection and the struggle to start all over with two exquisite turns by an astonishing Jennifer Lawrence and a heartbreakjngly authentic Brian Tyree Henry.
The extremely indie nature of a project might prevent any of the two to earn nominations, especially in a year of such fierce competition, but damn it, they’re both more than worthy. Brian is painfully honest in his portrayal of a man struggling with unspeakable guilt and I applaud Jennifer (once again) for being an incredible actor first and a glamorous superstar second. She easily delivers her most impressive, lived in, demanding turn in years. I at least hope both of them end up earning nods at the Spirit Awards.
It made my top ten (so far). Great film!
So good. Real as fuck and with two truly fantastic performances.
I also feel like it just might be too small to register with the Academy. I liked the film, didn’t love it. Lawrence was very good (in indie acting mode) and Tyree Henry impressed me for the first time. Lovely emotions on display. The acting is superior to the script, in my opinion.
It’s such a superbly acted film. Like I said, I at least hope for The Spirit Awards for both of them. Anything more than that will be a pleasant surprise but sadly doubt it.
Just came back from an industry screening of THE FALBELMANS. Michelle Williams was fantastic and watch out for the 5 minutes of Judd Hirsch – the crowd burst into applause when his scene was over. As far as the movie goes, some of it works but for me some of it doesn’t, it takes a while for it to find its groove, overly sentimental at first.
3 is a lot more than 2. That tile is also much more showy in a Woody film. I’ll be more than happy to be wrong.
So good to hear once again how fantastic Michelle is. She’s always so damn terrific and she’s already been snubbed so many times one loses count. A part of me hopes she shakes up the race with key wins for such a baity role despite the fact that another part feels a little frustrated since she would probably sweep the entire Supporting Actress season. I guess her role falls into that path between Lead and Supporting that one can’t easily claim “category fraud” that easily, sort of similar to Patricia Arquette’s role in Boyhood. Just curious, did you feel after seeing the film she fits better in Lead or Supporting?
Definitely not a supporting performance – she is the hub driver of the story and it feels like a lead to me.
Dying to see the film 🙂 Thanks for your response
If Judd Hirsch get’s a nomination for that over the top but funny cameo and Anthony Hopkins is ignored for his heartbreaking performance in Armeggedon Time that category will be a joke especially since there’s another cameo in Fabelman’s i can’t talk about !
I agree – just reporting that the audience except me loved Judd Hirsch’s OT
cameo performance.
Does Michelle Williams work in the Lead race, or is she more Supporting, would you say?
Definitely the lead – the mother character drives the film.
For the first 30-45 minutes of TAR, I felt that Blanchett was superb … but that Deadwyler has “the” role and performance to ultimately win with the Academy.
Howwwever, by the end of TAR, for those Academy members who make it through the end, I don’t see how they couldn’t give it to Blanchett.
She just does SO much. It’s a performance that is just so unbelievably good. Not to mention the speaking German/playing the piano/the physicality of the conducting/the character arc of her downfall, etc.
Deadwyler is wonderful and so emotionally expressive in a role that we’ve seen a variation of before. I just don’t know which way the Academy will fall.
See Pearl.
Maybe if Deadwyler spoke German and played the piano her performance would have been even better . I hope she wins !
Exactly. Deadwyler is utterly heartbreaking in a part as baity as few out there but the acting displayed in Cate’s INSTANTLY ICONIC performance is too astonishing to be matched by anyone else this year. Her part is almost ridiculously demanding as you rightfully point out, from the physicality and language to the character’s excruciating arc and if she misses to Danielle, one of the two Michelle’s or pretty much anyone else this year I can easily see how members of the industry and a large and by this I mean LARGE part of the public going “What the hell? She didn’t win for THAT?”
She’s simply in a league of her own. Mia Goth gives my second favorite turn this year but despite her unbelievable tour de force in Pearl she’s in the kind of film voters sadly couldn’t care less about (which is obviously frustrating as hell).
Olivia Colman in Empire Of Light and Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans are essentially the only ones left for me to see of this year’s potential Best Actress nominees but I’m something like 100000% percent sure (for something like a billion reasons) no one can even approach Cate Blanchett’s towering brilliance.
– Switching between german and English effortlessly
– Playing the piano
– Conducting actual Orchestra (Music made at her pace)
– Doing her own Stunt driving
NTM Technical precision Blanchett went through to fully flesh out this fictional character to the point of making people believe that Lydia Tar is a real person.
Film’s pacing is slow and the character is “cold” but it’s deliberate thanks to the wonderful screenplay and direction by Mr. field. It takes time and never spoon-feeds the audience- “look at this, what you should think or feel sympathy about her” etc. Unlike we see mostly in films nowadays. TAR’s a masterpiece. Cinema has been missing pieces like this for a while. “The piano teacher” comes to mind.
Blanchett’s artistry is TRULY on another level.
She’s wonderful. I’m just not sure it’s the performance to bring in the third.
I agree with like every letter used in this post haha 🙂 Cate Blanchett on such an another level than anyone both in general and ESPECIALLY in Tar that I don’t even wanna think of another case of her being robbed in an Elizabeth / I’m Not There / Notes On A Scandal type of way. 100% agree with The Piano Teacher comparison as well. This is exactly the kind of role we rarely see from actors of any gender, let alone female. I truly hope I’ll see her win her LONG, LONG, LONG OVERDUE third Oscar.
Saw Tár. I don’t think it’s happening for Blanchett this year. She’s great but super unlikeable in a movie sure not to please everyone. It should have ended 10 minutes earlier. We’ll see.
It should have ended with the 12 screens of credits before the movie.
As your “deep” TAR review should have ended after first few words.
Sounds like…Blue Jasmine?
The hype is real. A Kathy Bates like performance. I can’t believe I’m saying this but it’s one of the best films I’ve seen this year. Which might not mean a great deal because I’ve not seen as many as others. Yet to see many of the big contenders.
Which one?
I was talking about Pearl. Goth performance reminds of Bates in Misery. It’s one of the best films I’ve seen this year. I didn’t have big hopes after seeing X, which i thoughtwas only okay. But this is film was way better than I had expected. No wonder Scorsese is talking highly of it. I think it’s already at least a cult classic. I think it’s probably a but too gory and genre to for it to get Oscar nominations.
Where did u watch Pearl ? It’s not available to rent on streaming and not in theaters, I was gonna watch last night
it’s on Amazon, Google, and Apple. It’s a very moving story about a small-town girl who has big dreams…and an even bigger pitchfork.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5e4af12c6d8a9e449507e2bcf186475dc403d46023895ab38cc91f1a2879eda2.jpg
I think they should rerelease it around Thanksgiving ! Perfect Holiday movie and it’s a musical also !
TAR won’t win anything, it’s too good. Best Actress usually goes to a mediocre TV movie, so Deadwyler has the edge. She’s also the wokest pick possible, that seals the deal. Yeoh is too cool, Best Actress is never cool. Robbie would be too good for the Oscars, the Academy won’t do that. The show is about self-flagellation. It can’t be glorious. And Babylon itself looks like a glorious movie.
Tar won’t win because it did diddly-squat at the box office. And if the general public’s WOM was any indication, Blanchett won’t win either. The movie was just a BAAAADDDD movie. 3 minutes and 12 screens of credits? What dum-dum does that to a movie? I had to sit through – count them – 12 screens of credit…..BEFORE the movie began.
and Blanchett while a good actress, the character was a nothing-burger.
How much did Moonlight make at the box office?
Likeability? So Viola Davis isn’t quite as likeable though she is the best actor here listed? I say that even though Frances McDormand is near perfection (and that is why she won, not because she was “likeable”).
“[Viola Davis] is an American treasure, the movie is very well-liked, and Davis is overdue for a Lead Actress win.”
Couldn’t have said it better. So far it’s my favorite lead actress of the year but I’ve yet to see TAR, Till and Babylon.
I always find it hilarious when someone, who actually won an Oscar in competition, is “overdue” for another one in Lead. Tell that, to the neverending list of great actors who never won, or were not even nominated. To pretend that Davis is more due for a 2nd or Cate for a 3rd than Michelle Yeoh, Amy Adams, Michelle Williams and many, many more, for a first, is quite ridiculous when you double think about it.
Keep thinking like that and you have aberrations as Denzell winning for Training Day in Lead… when Ewan McGregor wasn’t even nominated
Sorry, but how is thinking Davis being overdue for a win in Lead or Blanchett for another win period any more ridiculous than thinking that Yeah is overdue at all, given their respective filmographies. Whilst, at a stretch, one could argue Yeoh has given some solid performances in mostly average films, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon aside, she has hardly got a filmography that contains a plethora of Oscar calibre performance which suggest she has been egregiously overlooked for recognition. Yeoh overdue? I think not.
so, a living legend of a whole genre, that had been in conversation for CTHD, Memoirs of a Geisha, Crazy Rich Asians and works consistently in Hollywood isn’t due for some recognition? Specially after giving Jackie Chan, an Honorary Award? And it’s Yeoh, not Yeah…
I think the nomination might be the win for Yeoh. I think the narrative is for a nomination, not a win.
I feel as if I’m pointing out that water is wet and snow cold, and I know the whole point of this site is awards forecasting, but…It’s November 4, FFS, and the Oscars aren’t until–when? Oh, March 12, that’s right. Things can literally change overnight, never mind over the next 4 months!
Sorry, feeling cranky lately; too much stuff has happened this year…
I still think Williams will be back to supporting at one point, in a month or two.
I hope. Weak category without her.
She could, but I don’t see the point. But if they were smart, I’d switch her back. Not only is it good for her because she’ll easily win Supporting Actress, but it will definitely boost the film for BP win.
Having re-watched Tár (and hopefully once more while it’s still in wide release), I’m okay now with Cate Blanchett winning Best Actress over Michelle Yeoh.
But Yeoh still deserves to put up one hell of a fight.
As long as it’s directed by Chazelle and shot on film (that’s you, Margot), I’m cool with it.
I think there will be a controversy around Cate, I don’t need to say why as it’s obvious
You are incorrect
I think the question of whether she needed to play Carol and Tar will be come up. I’m not attacking her in any way but that will be questioned imo
A very stupid controversy if it happens. Cate is magnificent in both movies.
The only thing that can stop her is that some voters (speculate how many) will dislike TAR. They’ll probably feel stupid after watching it and hate it because of that. Oh, and that “cold and detached” thing too.
Literally only that. Some supposed (and very forced) controversy is non-existent.
I’m simply stating there are ppl who will question this
And who will not be important at all.
No one would question. it. Why would they? Ridiculous.
I’m not even sure what exactly they’ll question. If she plays a horrible character that people don’t connect with, it might hurt her chances. But horrible characters have won before and it depends very much on the performance and the liveability of the actor and respect for the actor.
Idi Amin won an Oscar.
It depends very much on the performance and whether or not there are good alternatives. I don’t think it’d be a big factor on its own. Some stellar performances that have real powerful gut wrenching performances like Deadwyler are hard to stop. Also, Cate is going for a third.
Question what exactly. It’s not clear to those of us who haven’t seem it. Do you mean her sexuality is an issue?
Even those who did not find TAR to be their “cup of tea”, couldn’t deny Cate Blanchett’s undeniable performance.
Didn’t stop Blue Jasmine, a film by Woody Allen.
“I think the question of whether she needed to play Carol and Tar will be come up”
You can stop being coy. Just say plainly what you mean so that we can be sure we understand you, okay?
Nobody will blame you for what you presume “some people” might say.
Because if you’re saying that Oscar voters might deny her an Oscar because she plays a gay character, then there are examples that could refute (or support) your presumption.
But it’s hard to discuss it if you won’t say what you mean.
Actors and Actresses have won Oscars at least 14 different times for LGBTQ roles.
Surely you know that.
Ah. I wasn’t sure what he meant and that hadn’t occurred to me. I wouldn’t think that would be an issue, but it might be. But then that could generate a counter narrative.
I’m just guessing! I’m honestly not even sure.
But the phrasing: “the question of whether she needed to play Carol and Tar”…
“needed to”?
sounds to me a bit too much like: “why are gay people always needing to hold hands in public.”
That line intrigued me as well. I wasn’t sure what it was about. I’d forgotten TAR is a LGBTQIA character. I can see why you’d make the link between the two. But one can never be sure what it’s meant.
I’m not saying she didn’t need to play these characters, I’m simply saying this an issue for some actors who have publicly stated that another actor could’ve played the part of say Carol / Tar as an example. Of course I support these characters representation on screen, I want Brendan Fraser to win for The Whale. Last yr I wanted the very open Kristen Stewart to win for Spencer, my favorite performance in years that would make history. I’m simply saying there are actors that are talking about this more, I think Tom Hanks said he wouldn’t play in Philadelphia again.
Thank you for clarifying, King Jack.
I didn’t intend to put you on the spot. I genuinely did not understand what you were alluding to, and as you can see, I misunderstood.
But I believe you would be hard pressed to find very many LBGTQ movie lovers who don’t thoroughly adore Carol, and even fewer who would have a problem with the exquisite casting choices made by gay director Todd Haynes.
In fact, I think most gay movie lovers would be appalled at the parallel suggestion that gay actors should only be allowed to play gay characters.
This is an artificial cooked-up controversy, and I can assure you that you shouldn’t worry too much about it.
fun fact, I met Todd Haynes at a Wonderstruck showing w my mom. He was very nice to me, listened to what I was asking him, didn’t rush the convo.
I hope there is no controversy regarding dear Brendan / Cate but I’m a worrier so it’s probably me overthinking the awards lol
Even if it becomes an issue (which it won’t), can you imagine someone else playing Lydia Tar? Man, having watched TAR twice I can’t think of anyone (gay or straight or male) pulling this off other than Blanchett. I saw on YT and forums (goldderby) some saying Sarah Paulson (lesbian) or Lady gaga (actual musician) should have played this role…..LOL
It won’t lol
Hated, hated, hated The Good Nurse… how can a film be THAT wrong…
Haven’t seen it yet. Is that bad?
just imagine making the film about a killer nurse, instead about the corrupt, insane system that actually kills thousands for being poor… when actually pointing that out, as a secondary arch, that is resolved OFF SCREEN… the film could have been deep, poignant, but just decides to be Oscarbait superficial entertainment… it really doesn’t resist scrutiny.
To nominate it for anything, at the Oscars, would be a bigger debacle than Minari getting so many noms, and an Oscar win… at least, the acting in Minari was superb… even if I hardly think that was specially challenging… same here, but the director tends to – wrongly – think that the more dread, the better, and Redmayne’s ultra cold performance, warming up only at certain points, is kind of controlled to never make us forget that his character is a creep… however I think it would have been a way more interesting film – and probably more accurate to reality – if the character would have been likeable, for starters, which would have made a way more sense, for the background and the story being told.
ah Minari, already forgotten
I haven’t seen The Good Nurse at least yet but it kind of sounds like you’re asking for a movie with a completely different central concept and point of view than the one they actually made, at which point I’d question whether that’s a relevant criticism of a movie (criticizing the movie for what it isn’t rather than what it is or how it is what it is)
No, it isn’t. It’s better to say you don’t like that type of a film. Filmmakers should be able you make a film about anybody and anything.
They place the elephant front and centre, then ignore it, till a title card
Eddie Redmayne is great in that and deserves a Supporting nomination
for what? for a performance anyone can do sleepwalking 99% of the time, and then have the over the top moment/Oscar clip? Best in show were Noah Emmerich – so underrated character actor – and Nnamdi Asomugha as the policemen… Everyone was OK to good in a David Fincher wannabee that had some interesting / apt directing decisions but totally passed the chance of being a poignant film… I mean, what’s the film ultimately about, do you ever feel the vertigo of the actual scope of the themes (barely) portrayed?
Love Cate, but …Mia Goth. Period.
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Ana must be nominated, that’s the performance of the yr imo
See Pearl.
Ana was better in a far more challenging role.
Ana was exceptional, but no one likes the film. She should’ve have won SA for Bond, anyway.
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I love the movie
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Me as well
I’m scared lol
She only kills 4 people, relatively low by most serial killer standards.
I didn’t realize I watched the follow up to this and that wasn’t scary so this should be fine, guess I’m watching this tnight
And she’s very sweet !
No! Nothing bad about her because did brilliantly, but that film is awful. It’s one of my least favourite this year.
I love the movie
A film about the exploitation of an actress that also exploits her and maybe even the actress plaything her who spends a lot of the film naked. If that wasn’t bad enough, it ten tries to make into sone kind of martyr. It combines two very bad things: exploitation and martyrdom. It’s just bad and misses the point completely. It’s big waste. He could’ve made a more nuanced or realistic film? Instead he picked the two worst to options to portray Marilyn Monroe. She’s neither a martyr and also doesn’t deserve to be exploited like that.
as the biggest Jennifer Lawrence fan, I’m sad to report that she is not getting a nomination for this movie. boring movie where Lawrence mopes, walks around, doesn’t talk
It’s much better than her hammy af roles in SLP and American hustle. She shines in reserved Indies like Winter’s bone and this movie.
Should’ve won for American Hustle then another lead win for mother! imo. if she is nominated for this I will cheer as I’m her biggest fan but I don’t think the movie gave Lawrence enough to do
Wow, amazed you were able to get through this article without attacking anyone who thinks a performance by a non-White actress should win as a wokester liberal thought police tyrant.
Looking at the main contenders while i haven’t seen all of them yet disregarding their narrative a word i hate by the way I’d vote foe Danielle Deadwyler hands down !
I’m thinking more and more it will be Deadwyler. I think performance and role are hard to beat. I don’t know who’s her biggest rival, though.
Yes, but in that list of contending actresses (which I think will likely be close to the final five) Michelle Yeoh is the only one whose ethnicity is cited as a main reason she may be nominated and/or win. I don’t get the reductive talking points about either Yeoh or the film. If Yeoh wins, it will be because the voters felt she gave the best of the five nominated performances. And it will be a shame if that happens and anyone insinuates that it was grooved for her because of her ethnicity. It will happen, but it will still be a shame.
And the film and the performance wouldn’t have worked in the slightest if Yeoh hadn’t given a legitimately great PERFORMANCE. What she did was much more than just wire stunts.
Good points. However, I’m thinking the nomination will be the win for her. Is there a similar role like hers that win before? There are more baity roles and performances and none more so than Deadwyler.
GO MIA GOTH. That is all.
Any list without Mia Goth. I’m not interested.
I would love to see Michelle Williams an Oscar winner; her trajectory has been fascinating to follow since Brokeback Mountain. But (and I haven’t seen it) unless it is a spectacular performance, the fact that it was initially deemed a Supporting role, I can’t foresee, given her competition that she would prevail with Blanchett, Yeoh, Deadwyler in seemingly much bigger roles.
The only comparison point for me, on paper, is Reece Witherspoon winning for Walk The Line. I get the likability of role, star and movie, but the fact that she won for a co-lead at best, baffled me that year, but when I look back at the other 4 – two previous Oscar winners (albeit one for an 8 minute supporting performance) and two that might have been – the Globe winning Felicity Huffman and the British rose Keira Knightley. Williams competition in 2022 seems greater.
I still think it will be between Blanchett and Yeoh. But with little to go on still, it is hunch only.
I don’t think there’s that much proof that Williams’ performance was “initially deemed a supporting role” by all that many people. People’s expectations going into the movie were that it’s a supporting role, which always influences perception unless the part is undeniably the only central character. And even a lot of the people who have seen it have after the campaign change commented that the change to a lead campaign isn’t an insane one. I feel like instead a lot of people who hadn’t (and haven’t) seen the movie had decided that she is going supporting and is going to win supporting and got mad that the campaign made a move that was insane in relation to the movie they have in their head. To be clear, I haven’t seen the movie yet either, but unlike I feel a lot of people (not necessarily you but even here some people did this), I want to see the movie first before choosing whether putting Williams in lead is appropriate and not yelling “category fraud” when a campiagn goes against my imagination of what the movie is (and at the same time these same people seem to be complaining about the movie in general as just another sentimental Spielberg movie in a way that makes it sound like they have decided the movie is bad and obvious to the point that Williams can’t have a substantial part and refuse to actually wait to see the movie in case it actually turns out to be something else)
Yes I know you are not specifically referring to me. I dislike the term category fraud as it is over -used as is ‘over-due’. I thought there was a lot of initial chatter (maybe I’m in a bubble here at AD) that it was a supporting performance to begin with, but that when it either premiered or was being marketed, that she had switched (or the studio switched on her behalf). Yes, I like to make my own mind up too as to whether a performance fits right in the category. And i reiterated that a lot of this is ‘on paper’ at this juncture, as most of us have not seen most of the movies. I am in the camp of wanting very much to support the Spielberg film and await it with much hope and anticipation. I also know to temper my expectations that ‘they’ (AMPAS, BAFTA, SAG etc) ‘get it right’. They don’t. ^.^
Speaking of Michelle Williams just curious will Spielberg get pushback over her casting like James Gray got for Antony Hopkins or does he get a pass because he’s Spielberg ?
I admit I’ve been rather distracted, but what’s going on with this, and why would (or is) either director getting grief for casting a particular person?
Antony Hopkins isn’t Jewish and James Gray basically said and rightly so I’ll cast who i think is best for the role and you can all go fuck yourselves or words to that effect . Same goes for Paul Dano and Michelle Williams and i was wondering if Spielberg will get the same kind of criticism that Gray got !
I understand wanting to make sure various groups get their chance to tell their own stories, and I fully support that.
HOWEVER…
IT’S CALLED ACTING FOR A REASON, PEOPLE!!!
You’re playing a character, damn it! It’s the marginally more acceptable version of playing dress-up as an adult (as opposed to joining the SCA, becoming a larper, or getting into cosplay). We’re talking about whether or not white people can play other white people of a different ethnicity and belief system–are actors only allowed to play people exactly like themselves now? WTF?!?
(Please don’t tell me Jewish groups are actually complaining about this–I haven’t heard a single peep out of my friends’ group, which skews heavily Jewish, very PC, and more than willing to hold forth at length as to why something is wrong.)
*bangs head on desk*
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(For the five or ten people who’ll get the reference)
Interesting how several of the people around him are quite amused, eh? Hey, it’s one way to get attention, right?
I would love to see Williams win, but not for this film. She’s good but not great, and the Prince Valiant haircut is really distracting. Hey Moe!
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I would love to see Williams win, but not for this film. She’s good but not great, and the Prince Valiant haircut is really distracting. Hey Moe!
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it is weird yep. What did you think of the movie overall?
Exactly what I thought of Belfast. It’s a more interesting story to the teller than the tellee. Nothing wrong with it all, it’s nice, but that’s about it. It’s not Avalon.
Beautiful movie – I especially liked Randy Newman’s score. Haven’t thought of that movie for many years.
“He came to America in 1914. He said it was the most beautiful place he’d ever seen.”
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people is going to throw tomatoes at me, but I thought that in Brokeback Mountain, if an actress should have been nominated over the other two, was Anna Faris, who completely stormed the film, gave it life and stole all her scenes… such an underrated actress, and one of the very best comedic ones… she also stole all her scenes, effortlessly, in Lost in Translation. But we all know, comedic performances – even more so, in dramatic films, the comic relief – get completely shun at Awards (when they do probably the most difficult thing in those films: give some fresh air, so we can continue being engaged in the drama)
This is still Blanchett’s to lose. Of course, this may change, but I’ve seen no evidence to suggest otherwise at this point. If there is any competition, I believe it’ll only come from Deadwyler.
I think it’s going to be Deadwyler, but I’m not sure who will be her biggest challenger. I can see Cate dominate the critics awards and still lose.
Oh, look who’s finally starting to appear on lists!
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Is that a sweet smile or what ?
Well, it certainly is for someone who has just killed four people and a goose!
Yes, it’s very sweet. A heartwarming moment in the film.
She should
Huh?
I have a better reason. Voters got lazy,
Who was going to win? Mulligan’s campaign died the minute the voters weirdly took Variety’s side when she got mad at what that reviewer said about her. McDormand produced Nomadland and hired the director who rolled to the Oscar. It really wasn’t a huge surprise. And frankly, even if Three Billboards hadn’t existed, she would have won anyway.
My ranking that year:
Mulligan
Kirby
Davis
McDormand
Day
And I like McDormand
McDormand as a producing nominee was going to be impossible for the others to overcome once Mulligan fell completely out of contention.
Like when they want for CODA at the very end despite not showing real interest in the early phase? We know they are lazy and their worst picks are prove of that. McDormand’s win makes sense because her film was winning BP and the other performance were so obviously the best to them. I mean, Mulligan didn’t even get a BAFTA nomination. It was obvious McDormand was winning as she’s the strongest nominee.
You mean like the Producers Guild, BAFTA, and WGA who all voted for it? Face it, only pretentious fools backed Dog. No one cared about it.
BAFTA voters loved it so much that they didn’t think it was good enough to be nominated for BP. Remember they nominated both Crash and Green Book, two films which regularly rank at the bottom of the worst BP winners. CODA couldn’t even make BAFTA Best Film list while Crash and Green Book did. That says it all really. It didn’t get either BD or Editing at the Oscars and only got THREE nominations. Maybe the Director and Editing branches are too pretentious as well? The Power of The Dog won at BAFTA, GG and BFCA. Are you telling me any of those groups are pretentious? Hilarious! The Academy sometimes makes foolish decisions and it’s when they go for low rated, unimaginative, and by the numbers feelgood films. Think Crash, Driving Miss Daisy, Green Book and CODA. The better films or the people who love them are called pretentious because they don’t succumb to safe and unambitious by the number films like CODA. The Power of The Dog was a critics darling and that is something to be proud of. And we know which films stand the test of time between critic darlings and Oscar BP winners: Crash V Brokeback Mountain:; The King’s Speech V Social Network; Goodfellas V Dances With Wolves; Gandhi V ET; Pulp Fiction/ The Shawshank Redemption V Foeest Gump; L.A. Confidential V Titanic; Raging Bull V Ordinary People; Reds V Chariots of Fire; Rocky V Taxi Driver. And so on. The biggest one of all: Citizen Kane V How Green Was My Valley.
Have you thought about writing for Trump? He can’t let go of the past either.
McDormand has always had a rep for not giving a shit about what anyone thought about her as well as her ambivalence about Oscar. It was a great role, but “likeable”?
But that is what people like a out her. Likeability in this context doesn’t necessarily mean everyone wants to be their friend it means everyone is rooting for them. In McDormand’s case she is popular and liked precisely because of her free nature
So in turn that could mean that somewhere along the way Mulligan pissed off the wrong bloc of voters.
Not necessarily, just that they like the combination of McDormand, her role and her movie more
It’s not about voting against someone, unless they’re a controversial person. It’s about who they would rather see win. That matters when the best performance isn’t obvious to them.
Yes, it’s in a similar to Katherine Hepburn.
Yeoh has had a successful 40-year career and even toplined a BP nominee that seemed to barely miss the win. She’s also in the Avatar 2 cast which will only double her exposure to the voters who appear to be enthralled by Everywhere Everything. But yeah, reduce her to just an identity instead of an actress. That seems like a better approach.
off topic… just read “Terrifier 2” is going to campaign for Best Picture. Like, wow
I don’t see it getting very far. A lot of people won’t ever watch it.
How come no one is talking about tar’s run time and Blanchett’s chances at best actress? Best actress hasn’t gone to a film as long as tar in like 40 years
That stat is going straight to the bottom of Power of the Dog Lake. It’s either Cate at 158 mins, or Margot Robbie (the more likely winner) at 180+ mins.
I agree robbie seems more likely but it’s still a massive hump no one is talking about especially when it comes to Blanchett whose film is probably the mostly likely to be turned off and isolate viewers.
Robbie i also would hesitate to say will talk away with it cause given the price tag and run time and release of avatar 2 there’s a decent possibility that babylon fails to catch fire commercially the way lalaland did.
Honestly, once the academy voters sit through 12 screens of opening credits BEFORE the movie, they would have turned the movie OFF.
I’m a huge admirer of TAR and think Blanchett is acting in her own game this year in perhaps her best ever performance. However, that said, three people in the last day told me that they strongly disliked the film, and one told me that he walked out halfway. Another said that they “didn’t care about her character at all” and didn’t particularly like her. I am very suspect she can win the Oscar for this performance, quality of her work be damned. Many seem likely to turn away from the film. I suspect she will take a lion’s share of critics’ prizes but Oscar will elude her.
I walked out 30 minutes in. Three minutes of opening credits BEFORE the movie….I was patient…and then it started and it was a nothing-burger, she was a nothing-character. THERE! That’s how I feel and I’m not backing down.
I’m thinking less and less likely that Cate will win a third Oscar this season. I might change my mind once I see the film, but there are more obvious Oscar friendly films and performances.