New York Film Critics Preview and Predictions

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The New York Film Critics awards will announce tomorrow. They do sort of set the trend in that they are probably still considered the most respected of the film critics groups. They’ve been around since the 1930s like the National Board of Review, and their history is fairly aligned with the Academy’s, give or take. Here were their winners from last year:

Best Film:
Drive My Car

Best Director:
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Best Actor:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Best Actress:
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Best Supporting Actor:
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actress:
Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Screenplay:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Best Animated Film:
The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Best Cinematography:
Janusz Kamiński, West Side Story

Best Non-Fiction Film:
Flee

Best Foreign Language Film:
The Worst Person in the World

Best First Film:
The Lost Daughter

The only one that matched at the Oscars was Campion. The critics lost their minds over Drive My Car last year so it will be interesting to see what movie they lose their minds over this year (that just means they align behind one movie and everyone votes for it at every awards show and much of the time that can push it into the Oscar race). One of the few films they pushed that didn’t get in Best Picture was Inside Llewyn Davis, which was surprising at the time.

Right now the movie that sort of seems like it might get a push is Aftersun. I think they might go for TAR too in some respects, but not over the handlebars. Maybe they will, who knows.

In general, what wins Best Picture at the NYFCC is much more likely to get nominated for Best Picture than any other category. They tend to like to spread the wealth, in that one movie doesn’t always win Picture, Director AND Screenplay. It happens but it’s rare.

A chart of NYFCC’s recent winners in those three categories (bold – Oscar-nominated; red – Oscar winner):

Only once in that span of time was Picture, Director and Screenplay given to one movie, and that was Carol, which didn’t land at the Oscars in Best Picture or Best Director, but did get in for Screenplay. It looks as though Screenplay never goes with Picture.

I would not be surprised to see NYFCC pick something populist like, say, Tom Cruise for Best Actor from Top Gun: Maverick. They tend to sort of bust out those kinds of moves on occasion, like Lady Gaga for House of Gucci last year. Though, as you’ll recall, she was not nominated for Best Actress.

Either way, here are our predictions for those awards:

Best Picture:
TAR — Clarence Moye, Marshall Flores, Sasha Stone

Best Actor:
Austin Butler, Elvis — Stone
Colin Farrell, Banshees of Inisherin — Moye, Flores

Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett, TAR — Moye, Flores
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once — Stone

Best Supporting Actor:
Paul Dano — Stone
Barry Keoghan, Banshees — Moye
Brendan Gleeson, Banshees — Flores

Best Supporting Actress:
Dolly DeLeon, Triangle of Sadness — Moye, Stone
Nina Hoss, TAR — Flores

Best Director:
Todd Field, TAR — Moye, Stone
Sarah Polley, Women Talking — Flores

Best Screenplay:
Banshees of Inisherin — Stone
TAR — Moye
Triangle of Sadness — Flores

Best Animated Film
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On — Moye, Flores
Pinocchio — Stone

Best Cinematography
The Fabelmans — Moye, Flores
TAR — Stone

Best Non-Fiction Film
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed — Moye, Stone
Goodnight Oppy — Flores

Best Foreign Language Film
Decision to Leave — Moye, Flores, Stone