Oscar voting doesn’t start for at least another month. Most of us who cover the race are still trying to adjust to having the date slightly extended from what it used to be. Voting on the nominations ballot used to occur between Christmas and New Year’s. But now, it’s a bit later, mid-January. A lot can happen between now and then that can change how we see these awards.
Like, the Golden Globes nominations and ceremony. From a quick look at the key dates, we can see how the Globes are still in the sweet spot to be the most influential of the award shows, give or take a scandal or two (or three or four). Let’s just set that aside for now but it will be important later.
December 12 — Globes nominations
January 3 — Globes final ballots due
January 10 — Golden Globe Awards
January 11 — DGA nominations announced
January 12 — PGA nominations announced
January 12 — Oscar nomination ballots go out
January 15 — Critics Choice Awards
January 17 — Oscar nomination ballot deadline
January 24 — Oscar nominations announced
The date you always want to pay attention to, obviously, is the Oscar ballot deadline. Everything that happens before that shapes and/or influences the nominations. As you can see, we have a long way to go before we get to that point.
However, the Best Actor race does seem to be down to three at the moment. Each of these frontrunners has a motivating factor that will determine their prospects for a win.
The year started out with an astonishing box office surprise, Top Gun: Maverick, earning $1.5 billion worldwide. For a movie that isn’t a superhero or fantasy film to make that kind of money should send a message to Hollywood about what it takes to drive a hit. Even if that message was sent, it fell on deaf ears. We aren’t there yet. Hollywood has not yet abandoned its desire to change the world. It hasn’t yet decided to prioritize making money over being altruistic. So there is very little chance they’re going to say: Tom Cruise should win Best Actor.
And in fact, in any era that would have been true. That isn’t the kind of performance that wins Oscars. Beautiful men have to “ugly” themselves up to win, typically speaking. We rarely see a “golden boy” win without some sort of physical transformation: they lose or gain 50 pounds, they’re wrestling with a disability, etc.
This year, we have two actors in the race who fit the bill. The year began with Austin Butler playing Elvis Presley and just nailing it. Not an easy task, filling the shoes of The King. But he captured the voice, the body language, the singing — and most importantly, the tragedy of Elvis. Our memory of a faltering hero for whom fame was too much, too soon.
Elvis made around $150 million, which is almost unheard of nowadays. Some Oscar movies are lucky if they even make $10 million at this rate, but Elvis sailed through, becoming that rare universal hit everyone would love but few are able to attain. A lot of that is due to the popularity of Elvis himself, but much of it was due to the viral nature of the film, with Butler’s performance front and center as word of mouth spread.
Another performance became all the buzz: Brendan Fraser in The Whale. As the film played at various festivals, most notably Venice, Fraser received unexpected standing ovations, which moved the actor greatly. His reactions went viral and became part of the story. The role is tragic and Fraser’s own story, a comeback story, is also tragic.
Despite his success in Venice, he didn’t win Best Actor there. Colin Farrell won for his turn in Martin McDonagh’s exceptional film, The Banshees of Inisherin. At first it seems like these two roles can’t compete because Fraser transforms himself to play the main character in The Whale where Farrell doesn’t. Except that Farrell kind of does. He plays a guy who is “dull,” or not very smart. He’s a guy who spends much of his time with his animals and has only two people he cares about: his sister and his best friend.
But getting back to Brendan Fraser, there are a few complications. The first is that he has said he will not attend the Golden Globes even if he is nominated. That means if he is nominated and he does win, he won’t get the important standing ovation that would help drive him toward an Oscar win. Of course, there is no guarantee he would win. But if he did that would be the first stop. So if he wins and he isn’t there to receive the Globe, it might not give him the bounce. Then again, if he doesn’t win he won’t have to take the L either because people will assume the Globes were holding a grudge (though they probably aren’t).
To make matters even more bizarre and confusing, The Whale, which is an A24 movie, did not benefit from the studio’s near-complete dominance at the Spirit Awards. Yes, we had to contend with the sadly performative, truly embarrassing “gender neutral” categories which meant only two men got in, but why was Fraser not one of them?
My own conspiracy theory is that they want to give out their two acting prizes to Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh, and if Fraser was nominated, one of those women had to lose. But that is assuming an extraordinary level of coordination that probably wasn’t possible.
That still means our Best Actor race is a three-way. It surely means that there are three slots that will be filled automatically. It’s just a matter of which of three is the frontrunner or the winner.
Since The King’s Speech, we haven’t had a combo Best Actor/Best Picture winner. We have had a Best Actress/Best Picture winner — Nomadland in 2020. But the trend is definitely away from the Best Actor winner driving the Best Picture winner. However, it is essential (or it has been in the past, especially in the era of the expanded ballot) for the Best Actor winner to be in a Best Picture nominee.
The only time that hasn’t happened since 2009 was when Jeff Bridges won for Crazy Heart. So why did he win? Well, there were two actors that year in Best Picture nominees: Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker and George Clooney for Up in the Air. In both cases, they were hot dudes who did not transform themselves or “ugly” themselves up. They were never going to win, despite there being a strong push for Clooney to finally bring in that Oscar win for Best Actor (the only time he won was when he “uglied” himself up for Syriana in a supporting role).
Also, it was a year where the first woman was about to win Best Picture and Best Director, and its only competition was another female-led drama, Precious, and a movie with performance capture, Avatar. The energy was off the Best Actor race, allowing a beloved veteran who had never won to finally collect the prize. And really, he won not for playing Bad Blake (although it was a good and transformative performance) but more or less for being The Dude that everyone loves. He made himself omnipresent, thus helping ensure that his presence became one of the main reasons they were voting, not necessarily for the movie itself. The same went for Bong Joon Ho in 2020 — much of the goodwill around Parasite was his warm and charismatic self being everywhere.
It seems likely that both The Banshees of Inersherin and Elvis will be strong Best Picture players. We don’t yet know how strong, but both are very good films, with Elvis being a box office success and coming in hot here in the final phase of the Oscar race.
The Whale might have a harder time. However, I would caution ruling it out right away based on the reaction of critics. What group matters more in the Oscar race? The actors. The Whale is essentially a stage play that showcases its actors. Come to that, it could even find itself with a SAG ensemble nomination simply because of its hard-core focus on its actors. That’s what they like more than anything else, for the actors to be the film’s main focus.
Actors drive The Whale, but not many of them are that well known, save for Samantha Morton, Hong Chau, and Brendan Fraser. Likewise, The Banshees of Inersherin is written by McDonagh, a playwright very comfortable with actor-driven content. This is why both Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell slid easily into their victories with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. That film would probably have won Best Picture without the preferential ballot and the manufactured “scandal” that arose that year.
Elvis is a director-driven film because all of Baz Luhrmann’s films are, but there is no doubt that Austin Butler shines in the role of Elvis. His win will likely depend on how much people love the movie. Best Actor usually means people loved the movie too. If they really love Elvis and it’s featured in every category, that could be a sign he’s about to win.
Brendan Fraser’s win would be based more on the kind of role he plays: supremely tragic and deeply moving, not to mention his own comeback story.
The key factor about these three characters is just how tragic they are. All three of them leave you with a feeling of deep sorrow. Elvis is someone we want to reach into the screen and rescue. He was the victim of celebrity, of a predatory manager. and drug abuse. He was so talented and his talent was sucked dry leaving not much of a human being left.
Colin Farrell’s character is someone whose life is mostly untouched by hatred. He might not be that interesting to talk to because he isn’t very intelligent or insightful or ambitious, but he is a kind person who cares deeply about animals, especially his donkey. He has to be taught how to hate, how to go to war, how to become violent. To do that, he has to be robbed of the thing he loves. He had to be taught how terrible humans can actually be to get to that point of extreme hatred. It is a difficult transformation to watch, and our heart aches not just for him but for all of humanity that this is who we are in the final analysis.
And finally, Brendan Fraser’s character in The Whale is one I can’t even think about without tearing up. This poor man has nothing but disgust for himself and what he has become. A totally wasted life, a selfish person who turned inward and alienated everyone. But it’s how he tries in the last moments of the film to break through to his daughter — the only precious aspect of his life that he ever helped create that had any value — that wrecks the heart. I was wrecked by the end of this movie. And I have to wonder how many voters will feel the same way.
Best Picture can drive a Best Actor into the race. If voters really love Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, there is a good chance for Gabriel LaBelle to land in that fifth slot. His performance as the young Spielberg is pitch perfect. He never overdoes it and seems to connect with an introvert whose best method of communication was making movies and telling stories. He’s particularly good in the high school sequences, navigating being an outsider coming of age. The entire ensemble is strong in The Fabelmans, which means it is a frontrunner for the SAG cast nomination. It’s just a matter of how many acting nominations it ends up with.
What other names are “in the conversation,” as they say? Bill Nighy has been finding traction for Living. There is Jeremy Pope for The Inspection. Last year’s winner Will Smith is back with Emancipation, which some are saying will have Best Picture heat too.
Tom Hanks just dropped in A Man Called Otto, which seems to be generating some buzz. Netflix is pushing Adam Sandler in Hustle and maybe that will land somewhere.
Most of these names, however, are for nominations, not for wins. At least not at the moment.
“Since The King’s Speech, we haven’t had a combo Best Actor/Best Picture winner.”
What about The Artist?
I am not a fan of Tom Cruise, but he knocked it out of the ballpark with his letter-perfect performance in “Top Gun: Maverick”. And, given last year’s brouhaha with Will Smith I think the Academy might want to do something to get its luster back, such as it is. Don’t count Tom Cruise out, just yet.
I love TC and I’m here for his comeback. But as much as I enjoyed this movie and loved watching Cruise prove that’s he’s still the biggest movie star ever, I don’t want this to be his Oscar story. He’s got another Oscar-worth performance in him and I want it to be something where he challenges himself. I’m still waiting for that Tarantino collab.
“Comeback”? He never went away. He’s been consistently making movies, just not releasing them because of CV19.
Not on a Top Gun 2-gangbusters Box Office level – not since the mid-2000s. He dominated this summer’s BO in a way he hasn’t for at least a decade. I meant comeback in a cultural sense.
The actor award is voted by actors. And I have heard that the most successful actors in the world, from Di Caprio to Pitt, from Cruise, Washington to Eastwood and a myriad of really influential filmmakers like del Toro and Spielberg point to Butler as a very strong contender. Contemplate, if you must, the actors who have received Oscar nominations in this century for portraying real people who are not from this century, but from basically the past two centuries. And none of them, with the possible exception of Lincoln and Mozart, were as known as Elvis Presley is, globally. And since there was not much film, or recordings, made out of either, the unvarnished truth is that Presley was a much more difficult challenge,not just because there was so much to imitate, but because he had as many voices and mannerisms, all glued to the conscious of the public at large, that inevitably they all fell short of giving Presley the credit he was due, as a person, as an entertainer, and as both a cultural icon and tragic figure. Butler delivered on all counts.
great comments, Guillermo
I’ll echo that. Great comments, Guillermo AND INTWTA. To me, Butler actually had a higher bar to meet. EVERYBODY knows Elvis Presley. And can make comparisons. If Butler wasn’t amazing, ”Elvis” fails. But it became a worldwide hit. And that’s a credit to Elvis’ legacy, but also to the guy who brought him back to life.
Butler does produce the goods – big time. Also, I feel like people are underestimating the power of the ELVIS story. People went out to the cinema to see this. For a lot of people, they were around when this all happened. I wasn’t born yet, though was utterly engaged and wanted to know what my parents found so wonderful about this man. Then, the story is so tragic with this manager. Hanks is solid but horrid. The end is just soul crushing. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if Butler and ELVIS walk away with Oscars.
Movie needs to be re-released and that 4 hour cut needs to be released.
Great post! Agree with all of this. Butler, with Luhrmann, saved the legacy of Elvis from the caricature, the “fat Elvis” kitsch.
Butler is young, he’s pretty, and he sang some of the songs. I only wish Baz had directed the Aretha movie, then Jennifer would have been a nominee.
Nobody talks about Tom Hanks who blew me away. Took a while for me to settle into his portrayal, but it was believable.
I don’t really see Farrell winning. I haven’t seen it and I would love for him to have an Oscar but from what I have heard it is the kind of restrained performance in a top contender that wins all the critics awards and goes on to be nominated in a film that might win elsewhere but he won’t. Think Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name or Cumberbatch last year. Not saying he can’t win – everything is still on the table right now, that is just the most likely scenario to me right now
Chalamet can act circles around Farrell, and his performance in CMBYN is one for the ages. Farrell is serviceable at best.
I haven’t seen Banshees yet but in general I disagree. I think they are 2 of our best actors working currently and wouldn’t like to put either ahead of the other – they are both excellent and very different actors. Though, yes, I agree Chalamet in CMBYN is one for the ages.
I can’t pronounce the title….sorry….and therefore I don’t have a clue what the movie is about. Getting good reviews, but the heck is it about?
As terrific as I thought he was, I don ‘t think Butler has a chance. This is strictly between the other two. The other two nominees are anyone’s guess. Jackman seems to have been forgotten. I would love for Mescal to get in, but it’s a long shot. I’m surprised there has been so little mention of Ralph Fiennes for The Menu. Pope’s getting a lot attention lately which can’t hurt. I reluctantly suppose Smith is a possibility if he’s good enough. They nominated George C. Scott for The Hospital after he gave them the finger the year before for Patton. Ditto Brando in 72 & 73, though he had a cause other than dishing the awards themselves.
”Elvis” cleaned up last night at Australia’s Academy Awards (AACTA), winning 11 of its 15 nominations. It took Best Film, Best Director (Baz Luhrmann), Best Actor (Austin Butler) and Supporting Actress (Olivia DeJonge), adding to its recent wins for Cinematography, Editing, Costumes, Production Design, Sound, Makeup and Hair, and Visual Effects..
https://deadline.com/2022/12/aacta-awards-winners-2022-elvis-chris-hemsworth-1235191837/
Well now, that’s a real surprise.
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It was certainly Catherine Martin’s night winning 3 awards! I wonder if she can make it 6 Oscars in total next year? I would expect her to win at least one of the two categories she would be eligible in.
Why do i feel that The Whale is The Wrestler Redux! Same narrativ4e ! Tragic pathetic loser with daughter issues ! Comeback story ! Performance better than the movie ! Nomination but no win !
That’s exactly what I’ve been saying! You are two peas in a pod, you and I
I was in the mood for schmaltz so I went to see Devotion. This movie got a raw deal, coming after TG2 it looks like a complete copy but with a Black Guy thrown in. Heck, even the final sequences are in a snowbound forest.
It’s a real shame because this movie is quite good, especially if you like Elevated Schmaltz (can someone please make that a real genre!) There’s nothing Top Notch about most of it, it hums along nicely. But the climactic battle scene comes and the whole sequence takes your breath away (Hint: it’s more than just a joust in the Korean night) It’s a conclusion that makes the film special.
But it’s not without a message that I am sure many will welcome today. Like the LGBT community in They/Them, this film shares the idea that members of the majority need to stop coming to the rescue. Minorities are strong, and one who insists on rescuing them are really saying “I think you are weak, I will use my privilege for good!” This movie is the anti-white savior and it’s rather refreshing.
Glen Powell is of course adorable but sadly is not deserving of Best Actor, he’s kind of like a working man’s Tom Cruise, who does deserve a Best Actor nomination. Maybe some people don’t see charisma as acting, but I do. I know I am right on this because there are plenty of good-looking people who appear dead on screen.
Critics aren’t picking him to be a player, after all it is easy to dismiss him. But this is an iconic actor who is making a comeback (although he never really left) who has been in charge of his career for decades now. He’s been nominated three times, more than any other major player in the mix this year, and is due. Career Oscars aren’t as common these days but they definitely take place (Sandra Bullock). I can see him getting a Globe nomination, and then a SAG too, and then, well, after that who knows.
“There are plenty of good-looking people who appear dead on screen…”
This is not one of them.
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Thanks, Rufussondheim, for callling attention to ”Devotion.” It IS a better film than it’s being given credit (or box office) for. I wish a fraction of the folks who flocked to ”Top Gun: Maverick” would catch ”Devotion.” First off, Kevin LaRosa, the flight coordinator for ”Maverick,” did the same duty for ”Devotion,” and ”Devotion” uses the same techniques to capture the exciting aerial sequences. It was shot by Eric Messerschmidt, the Oscar-winning cinematographer of ”Mank.” Glen Powell is in both ”Devotion” and ”Maverick,” but in the former, he’s also an executive producer and it’s been a passion project of his to bring this story to the screen. And that is: the real-life saga of Jesse Green, the Navy’s first black fighter pilot (played by Jonathan Majors), and his deep friendship with Tom Hudner (played by Powell), and their heroic adventures and sacrifices during the Korean War.
One of my issues with ”Top Gun: Maverick” is it depicts a world in which only the white alpha males do anything of consequence, just like ”Top Gun” (1986). The difference in ”Maverick” is that there are fleeting scenes of fighter pilots of color, and even one or two of female fighter pilots, but they exist only as window dressing. They contribute nothing to the main plot. In this update, it might’ve been be interesting if one of them came to Maverick’s rescue, but this ”Top Gun” sequel also proves to be a ”white savior” movie.
Which brings us back to ”Devotion,” a movie about Green, the Jackie Robinson of Navy fighter pilots. It depicts the challenges and hints at the racism and fears he faced as the only black man in a sea of white faces in the ’50s. Plus, his enduring bond with Hudner. That’s a true story everyone should see and celebrate. Obviously, box-office wise, there’s no comparison with Tom Cruise’s ”Maverick,” which opened May 27 and grossed $52 million alone that day (and went on to $717 million, U.S.). Still, it’s sad to see that ”Devotion,” a real-life story of bravery, struggles to gross only $15 million in 2 weeks.
Sometimes a film takes time to find an audience. The obvious example is Shawshank Redemption, a film that got middling reviews and poor box office. Interestingly enough, that was supposed to be an Oscar magnet.
I love ”Shawshank,” but at least it got 7 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture. I suspect ”Devotion” will get zilch from the Academy.
By the way, Diane Warren recently got a Honorary Oscar for her 13 winless Oscar nominations. When is the Academy giving an Honorary Oscar to Thomas Newman, who wrote the iconic score to ”Shawshank,” among many others. He’s got a winless streak of 15 Oscar nominations.
This just in:
The King of the World is coming to reclaim his throne! It’s all over but the shouting, Avatar in a breeze.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/36e52d16833abd2081d3943790749fc758bc8be01abc5ee38e9aa9533661de81.jpg
Just started reading first reactions, and taking them with a grain of salt, but they seem to indicate, if corret, Avatar 2 could actually even win the big one, and kick Top Gun: Maverick to a 2nd tier in the “blockbuster” competition. Wonder what will prevail, the technical innovations of A2 or the good old real stunts of TGM. Another reason why EEAAO could actually sneak in at VFX with the narrative, everything was done by just 5 people (Avatar team will have another chance with 3, 4 and 5)
If Disney campaigns heavily, and the film is a hit, we could see it eclipsing everything else… but main problems are:
1) a sequel
2) genre
3) it contrasts, as exposed its technical innovations and state-of-the-art CGI with the craftmanship stunts of Top Gun: Maverick, which was a film made with no other expectation than being a b.o. hit for the studio and the main star.
4) also, it contrasts, even more heavily, with the low budget EEAAO which is another genre film that is probably more daring thematically and in structure, and certainly never had Oscar or Awards in mind. David vs Goliath
5) Cameron vs Spielberg. Think twice about it.
6) It could really clash with Wakanda Forever in terms of challenge, one is technical, the other one was emotional (reconstructing a whole franchise once its main star, iconic, passed)
All those factors are important, to analyze, how far Avatar 2 can go. Maybe too many battles at once? Can Cameron overcome all of this?
1) So? “Remakes don’t win” either. Oops!
2) Like Shape of Water?
3) Top Gun is garbage
4) If you honestly think EE can compete against Avatar, change your strain. There are a lot of people (especially over 50) who HATE the film,
5) Ok, I thought 10 times about it. Same conclusion, Cameron is the king of the world.
6) Wakanda???? that film will be lucky to get a costume nomination.
there are exceptions. Point is, all these fronts at the same time, are really an uphill to go.
I’ll be 52 next Dec. 20th. And I f*cking love EEAAO. I am from the same generation that grew with Spielberg, Carpenter, Dante, Miller, Landis. Stop pretending that the “elderly” members of the AMPAS would hate EEAAO… they made the films that partially inspire its creativity.
I hang with those “elderly” folk in LA. Whenever that film’s name comes up, I get eyerolls, groans, and outright antipathy. To a man (and woman). Much akin to the movie about the Dog last year, and we all know how that turned out.
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well, let’s see in a few months… so far, is doing way better than The Fabelmans and Women Talking combined, in precursors, isn’t it?
Precursors??? You meant irrelevant critics awards? Boy, I remember one film last year that kicked everyone’s ass up and down the block during “Precursors”. How’d that do again when the Oscars rolled around? Oh yeah! Lost the most Oscars in history.
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the funny part about you, is how you simply choose to ignore precursors – signs of love and good positioning in the race – when they are not convenient for your arguments. And how you tend to double dip in hating/dismissing rather than in actually talking about movies or sharing with us some underdog or non-Oscar film that may be around… you know that I don’t shy off to heads up into something that is not competing for anything and may be interesting, or suggest to avoid some turd with pretensions to become cult.
There are people that add to th conversation, there are others that seem to be eager to make it collapse. In that sense, I rather have Sammy spamming about Tár, than a post like this last one of yours.
The bottom line is never look to what critical groups are picking to use as a measuring stick, or in hopes of it translating to Oscar love. That’s a fool’s errand. The VAST majority of their picks are pretentious and self-congratulatory. Did Sammy like Tar? I hadn’t heard.
remember, I am still convinced that when dust settles, Women Talking is coming on top. The only award I am confident that EEAAO is going to pick up at Oscar night – at this point, is highly unlikely they won’t throw at least a bone to the film – is Ke Huy Quan’s. THEN, I think it is the most logical winner for Original Screenplay, but critics are lining up for Banshees on that field already, so it’s a toss up. If it wins both, then it’s a Best Picture threat. But I also think Women Talking ONLY needs Adapted Screnplay to back its Best Picture win.
If enthusiaism of these reactions holds in reviews, Avatar (BP) and Cameron (BD) have entered the race. We’ll see. Fingers crossed for both Top Gun and Avatar.
as long as none of this sequels gets in, at the expense of something as original as EEAAO…
EEAAO is safe.
I really don’t see Wakanda Forever being a major player in any sense of the word. It’s predecessor’s success was a fluke, one driven by an aggressive marketing campaign by the House of Mouse and quite frankly a desire by the Academy to appear young, hip and woke. Plus Letitia Wright is just problematic
Wakanda Forever is actually a great film, unlike Black Panther, which was just OK and which interesting elements got trashed by a bad CGI final battle… Wakanda Forever excells over the original on all levels but maybe Tenoch Huerta – excellent! – is just an inch under Michael B. Jordan as a villain.
When you say great film, do you actually mean a great film? Or is it just great by Marvel standards
I still don’t understand the appeal of a sequel to the original. Avatar was quite special, and a technical marvel in the dawn of decent 3D films, but that novelty is gone and all the trailers seem to indicate a purely computer driven animated film. Like Pixar. I just don’t see it winning Picture in any scenario.
If you have CRITICS going nuts over a Cameron film, not fanboys, more than half the battle is won. The box office is also starving, which means it’s feeding the fire for one film, and it ain’t Babylon.
Um, you do mean Top Gun: Maverick? Right???
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I’m sorry, but those AVATAR creatures scare the bejeezus out of me. They’re ugly and all that flying around the ocean is not appealing. I notice the studio isn’t throwing a lot of TV ad money behind it. Maybe it’s a social media darling….but 3-1/2 hours? Nope.
People’s Choice movie winners:
Best Film: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Comedy: The Adam Project
Action: Top Gun: Maverick
Drama: Don’t Worry Darling
Actor: Chris Hemsworth, Thor: Love and Thunder
Actress and Action Star: Elizabeth Olsen, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Drama Star: Austin Butler, Elvis
Comedy Star: Adam Sandler, Hustle
”Top Gun: Maverick” won Action Movie of 2022, but given what a monster blockbuster hit it was, I’m surprised it didn’t win The Movie of 2022. Also, I’m astonished that its leading man, Tom Cruise, lost Male Movie Star of 2022 to Chris Hemsworth (”Thor: Love and Thunder”) and lost Action Movie Star of 2022 to Elizabeth Olsen (”Doctor Strange …”)
And how did ”Don’t Worry Darling” (38% at Rotten Tomatoes) win Drama Movie of 2022? I didn’t know anyone even went to see it. In reality, it grossed $45 million, which isn’t much compared to ”Nope” ($123 million) or ”Elvis” ($150 million). At first, I thought Harry Styles fans stuffed the ballot box, but Styles lost to Butler for Drama Movie Star of 2022.
https://people.com/movies/2022-peoples-choice-awards-full-winners-list/
If you devote even one brain cell to the idiocy that is the PCA, you let the bad guys win.
all of the marvel movies split the vote allowing top gun to win
In other words, Top Gun is the Marisa Tomeii of the People’s Choice Awards.
PCA Movie Actor: Adam Sandler, Hustle.
People’s Choice underway. Best Drama Movie: Don’t Worry, Darling
omg i turned it off after 10 minutes.
You didn’t miss anything. The GRAMMYS hand out more awards than these turkeys did tonight.
haha!
Almost half of the show was special awards stuff, and can I say Shania Twain is virtually unrecognizable?
Are we talking Cher-Believe-auto-tuning but visual ?
We’re talking spending the GDP of any African country on plastic surgery
I haven’t seen Fraser yet, which I’m guessing I’ll love, but Ferrell would be such a beautifully atypical win.
Couldn’t agree more. Doubt they’ll go with such a cool, worthy choice though.
main point is clear… Farrell will be in a Best Picture nominee, and it is unclear that “Elvis” or “The Whale” will make the cut at the top prize… so, Farrell is in the lead but vulnerable. If only Banshees is nominated for BP, it is…
1. Farrell
2. Fraser
3. Butler
If neither – for some reason – is nominated…
1. Fraser
2. Butler
3. Farrell
Sasha, social media embargo has ended on Avatar 2 what with the world premiere in London last night. Review embargo still in place until next Tuesday at noon ET..
As of this moment, these are my personal choices for nominees:
1. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
2. Austin Butler, Elvis
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
5. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu
Still so much to see, though.
My dream hope is that the critics groups elevate Paul Mescal and Aftersun into the Oscar conversation and maybe he can sneak in for a nomination. Hell, Scott Feinberg is currently predicting him as one of the five nominees as of now! Seems odd that Sasha doesn’t even mention him as a name in the conversation. Maybe I’m being naive, but, if A24 plays their cards right, I believe Aftersun could become the beloved, small, poetic film that’s a palatable alternative to any frontrunner (ie. Moonlight).
Couldn’t have said that better myself! Mescal and Aftersun feels like The Father of last year. It’s had a win at the Gothams for first director and then best first feature in NY. My number 1 film so far this season is in the race!!
Farrell ftw!
Is there a Critics Choice TV Awards thread where we can roast this travesty? Shame on Critics Choice. Abominable nominaitons. I have no idea what criteria were but it appears there was none.
There is a post about it. I haven’t examined it that closely, but what is so abominable about them? There are so many TV shows!
Link?
Yeah…we’re talking… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f982205bc7af52e0bfb5853552bb6011ceabcd5a76738dec5a964296f8af2c98.gif
The Hanks film isn’t just generating buzz, it’s generating talk of Hanks sneaking into Best Actor as a serious contender. The screening reactions have all expressed near shock that there was more to the film than the trailer suggested.
Agreed. Hanks just isn’t going to get nominated for a film that’s a remake of a Swedish film that didn’t even get that much Oscar buzz surrounding its lead actor’s performance
I seem to reall a remake of a lightly regarded French family comedy/drama did ok at Oscar last year
A Man Called Otto is not CODA, and both the buzz surrounding the films and the nomination possibilities are quite different from each other. This is what’s known as a false equivalence lol
It was just a joke. But if the key to winning Oscar these days is a likeable film with a likeable actor, Hanks/Otto is positioned pretty well. As is Glass Onion. As is Everything.
Oh I like that term. I must use it somewhere along the line.
It sounds like you’re arguing that Tom Hanks getting a nomination for this part would be more unrealistic than Rolf Lassgård doing the same. The very notion that Tom Hanks is starring in this movie completely changes the way that awards bodies treat that performance (if Hanks had played the part in the Swedish movie, he would have been considered for it).
And in relation to the CODA argument below, while CODA and A Man Called Otto are different, the baseline notion of it still is relevant in relation to both films: English-language remakes of non-English language films don’t need to be restricted to the set of nominations that the original movie received.
Most people don’t even know it was made into a Swedish film. The book is far better known.
I had a sneaky suspicion that this would be better than the trailer suggested.
I hope so, the trailer was pretty underwhelming i thought.
Well the book was excellent – it’s a book club staple, just entertaining enough to keep the casual reader happy, but deep enough to find easy discussion. The movie should have a built-in fanbase and box office success should come through word-of-mouth if it’s a good film.
It’s hard to put all of those crucial events in the book in a two minute trailer (but I did see hints of them)
I will be disappointed if Farrell wins this. In the grand scheme of things his performance isn’t all that impressive.
That is simply not true. By any measure, it is perhaps the best performance of his career and extraordinarily nuanced and human and tragic.
You’re just further proving my point because his career isn’t all that great to begin with.
My money is on Farrell at this point. I think they will want to award not only this performance and the great year he has had but also the fact he has been building a solid resume of really diverse and interesting performances over the past few years.
I think Farrell is in the lead, Fraser is fading fast. Butler got the primo SNL Christimas Episode hosting gig which shows Team Elvis is serious here. As I said above, watch out for Hanks.
Farrell has already won two major awards at Venice and NYFCC. But we shouldn’t underestimate the emotional impact of Fraser’s role and comeback narrative.
I used to despise Farrell back in the day. I saw him as little more than an obnoxious pretty boy. Then one night purely by accident my friend and I got high and decided to go see a movie. That movie was In Bruges. I was startled by how wonderful Farrell was in the role: he was funny, caustic, and heartbreaking. Ever since then, regardless of his at-times questionable choices in roles I’ve always gone out of my way to give him the benefit of the doubt.
I’ve still yet to see The Banshees of Inisherin (make no mistake I will: the prospect of seeing him, Gleeson and McDonagh reunite is too juicy to ignore) but I have no doubt he’s going to receive his first nomination, and judging by the response to the film and his performance in particular I do believe he’s going to win
In Bruges is probably my favourite movie of the 2010’s. It’s perfect.
2008 film, I think. But I get your point. That’s a great film and it has the best double act in recent years between Farrell and Gleeson. And it seems they’ve done it again it Banshees of Inisherin.
Great post. A three way battle indeed. It virtually does not matter who else is nominated, I can’t at this point see anyone other than one of those 3 getting the top prize and right now, that is a battle royale!
As you depicted, the narratives are different for the three films and for their leading men. All will be first time nominees; one is best known for films a couple of decades back; one has been slow burning a career and a celebrity persona, the third a shiny new and very image friendly. Until the more publicised awards get going, we won’t know who has the edge, but for now, I am betting Brendan Fraser; based in part on what I read here and elsewhere but also that good looking young men rarely get Oscar wins when they are young and that the heart factor for both Fraser’s character but his comeback may be the most compelling for voters. But we’ll see.
i was always surprised Fraser wasn’t celebrated with awards with his turn in Gods and Monsters. For me, he was fresh and sublime.
he made my list back in that year and McKellen was my top leading performance for it
Yes, who won that year? I wanted McKellen to win. I have acutally met Ian at a gay bar in Wellington NZ back in the day. He was very welcoming.
that would be quite the thrill to meet him
He was easy to talk too and flirty. Mind you, I was an intorverted twink in my element. He had a bf and so did I.
introverted twink – what an interesting description!
Funnily enough, the long-term goal here at AD is to ban everyone who’s not easy to talk to and flirty.
Roberto!
ahhhh yes. Well deserved too. I love Life is Beautiful.
You and I are perhaps the only two on here. I am ducking for cover as i write it, as peeps here dish it often. I was incredibly moved by it.
Oh, fuck them haha! The film is so emotional, and the ending, I can’t think about without shedding a tear.
I wish Colin Farrell takes this. Not only did he have a phenomenal year between The Banshees Of Inisherin, After Yang and The Batman, he delivers in McDonagh’s film his strongest, most nuanced turn. He’s hilarious and quietly heartbreaking on equal measure and I’m kinda sad the Academy voters are going to 99,99% go with Fraser (who I love btw and dying to see in The Whale) for a much more obvious, safe, Oscar-bait / transformational turn.
A Lead Actor / Actress duo of winners with Colin Farrell for The Banshees Of Inisherin and Cate Blanchett for Tar would be one for the books.
Not a done deal yet my friend. Colin may well win (and Cate too). Still early days. It’s a marathon
I mean yeah, here’s hoping to. I truly wish Colin wins with that turn in Banshees. Loved him forever and he’s been killing it as of lately.
I’m so disappointed I had to throw my ticket to Banshees I had last weekend due to a family crisis, so i now have to wait a few more weeks until it opens. I so wanted to see it to be able to speak about it. I love the chemistry that Colin and Brendan have off screen so really want to see the movie. NOW!
I can’t wait either. I’m going to see She Said tonight.
Oh my goodness, how I envy you.
I won’t defend it too much here because it’s already been killed duo 2 its perceived “woke”ness or box-office but having re-watched the closing shot very recently, She Said has solidified its position as my number 1 film of 2022. Sadly outside Ms Lenkiewicz (Probably) the superb direction of Ms Schrader & excellent performance of its 2 LEADS will get ignored (Just let me say that it IS NOT another Spotlight).
I thought maybe being Unorthodox fanboy might have affected my opinion but re-watching its powerful, gripping & well-made scenes has reassured me that this is the one that deserves the awards the most in my humble opinion (& regrettably won’t get them).
I really liked it. It is a film I could watch again. Particuarly, Zoe Kazan. She has to get a supporting actress nomination. I wouldn’t say I loved it but the screenplay, direction and editing is stellar. I can see this in the BP race for sure. How strange though, right!? Not so long ago Harvey was sitting in the theatre taking in all the MIRMAX glory and now there could be a film up for BP about his abuse.
Ms Kazan was incredible (It seems like they are pushing her for lead & Ms Mulligan for support).
It was indeed very well written (Which makes sense, coming from Oscar winning Ida’s Ms Lenkiewicz) while seeing Ms Schrader’s directing style was a sweet reminder of my love for Unorthodox (As well as her intriguing international shortlister I’m Your Man).
YES, it is strange & incredibly ironic when it comes to MIramax’s golden era & Harvey’s grip on the Oscars.
I hope you like it. Enjoy would be an odd word for me to use. I really liked it. I thought it was really well written, directed and acted – and for me, that adds up to a BP contender!
Thanks,
I’ve predicted it to be a BP nom (unseen). Will see tonight.
You and me both. It’s scandalous the way timid Hollywood is shying — or is it backing? — away from a movie that brilliantly excoriates the reptilian Harvey.
As if Tinseltown and the rest of the world have totally eliminated Weinstein’s odious ilk. Not hardly. Not remotely. My review is here:
https://moviestruck.substack.com/p/she-said-2022
Read above here! I totally agree with writing, directing and acting (plus editing)!
Also, I feel like Partrica Clarkson was mis-cast. I’m trying to think of someone else who could’ve played that role. I usuallly love her. She seemed stone cold IMO.
Oh, I hope all is well Dave.
Colin and Brendan share amazing chemistry indeed both on and off camera but here… It’s something else. I hope you’ll fall in the vast majority of viewers when watching it where your best thing about an already amazing film will be the performances of the entire cast and mostly the insane chemistry between the two leads. They’re both magnificent here individually and together.
Austin Butler: Unequivocal best actor portrayal in my lifetime of seeing far too many films. He brought not only the songs, moves and era to vibrant life, but in one feature-length movie captured the soul of the man, his family, his creative influences, and his contemporaries across an entire lifespan. Bravo! A joy to behold. Unprecedented excellence.